tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC September 30, 2024 5:00am-6:00am EDT
5:00 am
it's 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here is the "five@5." september to remember. wall street looks to wrap up another winning quarter with one unlikely sector leading heading into q4. still surging. chinese stocks surging and one investor says he's not buying in just yet. port strike countdown. we could be 18 hours away from the critical labor walkout that
5:01 am
could cost the economy billions. and israel ramps up strikes after the critical assassination on friday. we dig into the oil market. and why dan ives says the a.i. revolution is just starting. his bold outlook for q4 and heading into 2025. it's monday, september 30th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good monday morning. i'm frank holland. we kick off with the stock futures in the red across the board. the s&p is down eight points. the dow is fractionally lower down 50 points. the nasdaq, technically the hardest hit, down 41 points. almost .25%. the dow remains in record
5:02 am
territory and the s&p remaining in striking distance of the all-time high. the russell 2000 is the laggard. 9% away from the all-time high. 9.5% if we're going to be particular. one sector not lagging is utilities and on pace for the best quarter since 2003. you see the big move in q3. up 18%. steadily moving up. the big part of this is quote/unquote a.i. trade. we want to check out other key data points this week. look at yields. 3.77. moving up more than ten basis points since the fed rate cut. the two-year at 3.6 flat. the 30-year is at 4.12%. this ticked up since the fed rate cut. we are looking at energy and oil as investors watch for the developing situation in the middle east. crude is actually down more than
5:03 am
16% in the quarter, but this morning, you are seeing a bit of a rebound, a slight one, wti up .13%. still below $70 a barrel at $68.40. $70 is the key level. brent crude is up almost .50%. still below its highs of the year. we'll talk more about this with helima croft coming up later in the show. that is the morning money set up. we turn to china and logging another banner day ahead of the week-long holiday recess. we have jp ong with the asia action and carolin roth in the london newsroom. jp, i'll start with you. i'll say good evening because you're in asia. >> reporter: good morning, frank. the last trading day of the third quarter. in asia, it was a mixed tale of two markets. one political and one monetary. we have japan today which was the biggest loser in the region.
5:04 am
the calls coming offer the ldp held a vote with shigeru ishiba coming in as the new prime minister of japan. he is seen as a bit of a monetary policy hawk. that means higher yields which saw a stronger yen and yields coming up at the shagrin of the nikkei 225 falling today. he is calling for a general election at the end of october which means markets take money off the table. in china it is different with the stimulus and the biggest moves yet and the pboc wanting to lower mortgage rates at the end of the month for the stimulus. the mainland property stocks in hong kong are the biggest gainer. you see further deeper into bull market territory in the session. that had a knock-on effect for australia. if you know that in siysydney, is driven by iron-ore.
5:05 am
it might stimulate the property market in china. this could have a knock-on effect on base metals with copper inchile and peru. something you can track in new york. overall, it was these two stories and drivers really shaping the narrative for asian markets this monday. frank, back to you and good morning. >> jp, thank you very much. we will talk asian equities and japanese equities further on in the show. let's go to europe as they close out the quarter. we have carolin roth with us in london. carolin, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, frank. you said a lot of red arrows on the screen with the european trade. we are roughly two hours in the trading session. take a look at this. ftse 100 is down .50%. similar declines for dax. vw is the under performance here as the company cut guidance. i want show you the under
5:06 am
performance with the french index and italian index off 1.5% for both of these markets. i want to put it in perspective. we are close to record highs we hit last week on the back of the chinese stimulus which propelled the luxury stocks and basic resources stocks heigigher. there is a bit of fatigue here. the autos and stellantis cut guidance citing competition and issues in north america. volkswagen, as i said, slashed guidance for the second time in three months and warning of further risks ahead. aston martin now expects a full-year ebitda to be lower than last year with the declines in the high single digits. volkswagen off 2.5%. stellantis down a whopping 12%. frank. >> carolin roth, thank you very much, live in the london
5:07 am
newsroom. we turn back to the markets and the dow up more than 8%. the s&p up 5% and the nasdaq, technically the laggard here up 2%. joining me now is nancy from essex investment management. nancy, good morning. great to see you. >> good morning, frank. nice to be here. >> nancy, we talked about it there. small caps out performing for q3. a lot of that is based on rate cuts. the expectation of rate cuts and actually getting 50 basis points being more than what people originally thought. do small caps have room to run now we have the cuts, is that priced in? >>absolutely not. this could be the beginning of the multi-year cycle for stocks. we know that stocks -- small-cap sector, is under owned in the market. it is at record lows as a percentage of the total equity market and a little under 5%.
5:08 am
we know thatattractive. they remain much lower on small cap stocks and smaller cap sectors of the s&p 500 than the larger cap counterparts. that is not -- those are all necessary conditions. what we need to turn this around and get small cap stocks moving is the rate cuts and the confidence we will navigate a soft landing rather than recession. finally, most importantly, relative earnings growth. what we are starting to see in a couple of years, relative earnings growth for the small cap sector is expanding and the expectation is by the end of year, small caps will be growing faster than large caps. >> nancy, that was a long list of things that need to happen in your thesis to make things happen. i'm looking at the overall market in the s&p. the overall estimates are 13% in
5:09 am
q4 and 15% in 2025. i know you say they will outpace the counterparts. are you telling me small caps are posting better than 13% in q4 and better than 15% earnings in 2025 as you noted the economy is slowing down a bit? >> the economy is slowing down a little bit, but it is still very strong. small-cap stocks are the beneficiar beneficiaries. we think that for small caps, what is important is to be a stock picker in the marketplace. the overall indices may not out pace, but some will show 15% to 20% earnings growth next year. we also suspect that like most years, those numbers on the s&p will start out high and come down and the ultimate rate of earnings growth in the s&p 500 will be less than 15% next year. >> you have picks for us. you have a couple of names tied
5:10 am
to infrastructure and spending and also near shoring. one is clean harbor. it had big moves in q3. don't we already know that and isn't that already priced in the names? is there another bill that will fuel the stock to another 13% rise next quarter? is there another bill to move clean harbors to a double digit right? what happens? what is the catalyst? >> we're not expecting more bills to come out of washington to fuel this, but what we do expect is the companies will benefit both from the bills that have already been passed and that money is starting to get deployed and in the case of arcosa, it is a picks and shovel play of the sector which is important for the build out of a.i. and the digitalization of the country and factory automation and other uses of big
5:11 am
data. this is is a way to benefit fro the building done and build the transportation to continue to see all of the growth in a.i. that people are expecting. >> a lot to look for with small caps. nancy, thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> for more on the trading day ahead, head to cnbc.com/pro. we have more to come here on wo "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors need to know today. first, we will look at what the oil is like after the assassination on friday. rbc's helima croft is coming up next. and the white house issues an update on the east and gulfport strike. we have latest coming up. and bracing for a ch sckteto pop. the bold and bullish outlook from dan ives here in studio. we have a very busy hour when
5:14 am
okay, maybe not at work. point is at xfinity. we're constantly engineering new ways to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island? welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we're turning to a developing story. israel continuing the targets on lebanon. hitting oil storage facilities and other defensive positions. all this after the confirmed death of hezbollah leader hassan nasrallah on saturday. it's a strike that's raising
5:15 am
questions about a possible iranian response and more intense regional conflict. president biden plans to speak with prime minister benjamin netanyahu hoping to prevent an escalation. joining me now is helima croft with rbc. >> middle east and north africa. >> i never seen that acronym. i thought somebody misspelled it. >> no, it's middle east and north africa. >> first question. we'll dig deep into it. you are highlights the risk with lebanon. we talked about wti below $70 a barrel. brent crude below $75 a barrel. that is a key sentiment level. >> we were on this time last week and we were talking about the intensifying israel strikes. it is not pricing in a full
5:16 am
middle east war. i think for many oil market participants, when this war began in october, they were looking to see a supply disr disruption. it did not materialize. they largely faded the story. the question we have to look at right now is did the strike on hassan nasrallah on the senior hezbollah operatives and iranian forces as well operating out of lebanon, is that a trigger for iran intervention in the war? we have not seen them deploy military in support of their most important approproxy hezbo. >> iran seems to fund all of the attacks in the red sea. lebanon is one. >> iraq is well. the axis of resistance. they are the atm for all of the regional militias and terrorist organizations. the question right now, frank, does benjamin netanyahu think
5:17 am
the moment is now to go after iran in a major way? step back its nuclear program? is there a path for the israeli government? >> according to lebanon, other than 1 million people have been disp displaced. how does an investor price that in? how do you price in the developments and president biden is going to speak to benjamin netanyahu? we are well off the lows of april where we saw, again, d direct conflict. how do you price this in? >> we have two wars going on. we have russia/ukraine and the war in the middle east. they are really looking to see is there a supply disruption? is there physical oil at risk? to date, we haven't seen that.
5:18 am
>> i know you said we haven't seen it, but there is a lot of risk there. where should oil be in your mind? >> is there a pathway to see the action in the strait of hormuz? those are the things you are looking for. you look to see if iran is doing something like they can in 2019. for now, the iranians are holding forces back. the question is if this turns in a manner where they are directly targeted or decide the ground invasion of lebanon coming, do we see the war in a bigger way? chinese demand is less than stellar. we have a potential sector of opec barrels coming on the market in december. they are looking at a market and saying it is well supplied and fading the story. >> you are leading my question. they are looking to bolster
5:19 am
another factor when you move in u.s. forces. i want to touch on this. chinese stimulus last week. we saw stimulus. a lot of people see that as the bazooka that people are calling for. what does that mean to the oil market? you didn't want to put a number on it. in your mind, how much can that raise the price of oil with brent rcrude and wti? >> what are chinese up port nums look like? that's the physical market indicators we look for. i think on the physical market, we had a story come out last week in the ft saying backing away from $100 price target. i don't think they had that price target for a while. the question is are we going to potentially see more opec barrels come out of the market? those are the issues that are front and center for investors right now? >> our dan murphy clarified that. i think you are saying the same
5:20 am
thing. >> for the market, they thought, oh, my gosh, does that ft -- >> helima, i love you, but we have to go. what is the next? >> i would say pay close attention to see import numbers. import numbers and refinery utilization. >> helima croft, thank you for being here. coming up on "worldwide exchange," we're banking on the lithium boom or looking at the lithium boom. how one industry giant is looking to turn around the sagging price target. stay with us. more "worldwide exchange" is coming up.
5:21 am
did you ever worry we wouldn't get to enjoy this? [jeff laughs maniacally] (inner monologue) seriously, look at these guys. they are playing great. meanwhile, i'm on the green and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. not to mention the kitchen remodel, and we'd just remodel the bathrooms last month. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. so you're like a guru now? oh here it comes— join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next.
5:23 am
welcome back to "worldwide exchange." it's been the stock and sector story for the last three months. energy from the a.i. revolution. case in point is blackrock backed lithium. the stock is on a tear up 40% since it's august low. it has a ways to go to reclaim the highs back in 2023. joining me now and cnbc exclusive is the chair. anna, great to have you here. >> good morning. great to be here. >> you have seen a stock with a surge recently give us a snapshot of the lithium market right now. >> lithium finally found its bottom and it's been steadily
5:24 am
recovering from that. just last week, it's been boosted by the chinese recovery package which is the largest since covid. especially considering that over half of the world's evs are sold in china. a lot of fundamentals behind it. >> a lot of fundamentals behind it. i want to ask you when it comes to evs here in the u.s., we have seen a little bit of resistance to adoption. other parts of the world, we have seen faster adoption. the adoption of evs in whchina getting to overcapacity. how does that impac mpact the p of lithium? >> when you think about the overall market, um, china has grown 32% year on year. whereas, europe has grown zero and the u.s. has just grown 9%.
5:25 am
that imbalance between eastern growth and western growth did affect sentiment tremendously. but ultimately what has happened is we have to go back to fundamentals and go back to basics. half of the market is china. moving steadily, should become 60% of the ev market by the year end. that is what we call the bedrock of gloebal evs. prices are moving in tandem with consumers in that economy. hence, last week's package being another boost to lift the prices from the rock bottoms we reached in august. >> okay. ana, you know, lithium is often tied to autos. we are seeing less profit and less sales and pressure on their businesses. are there other pressures on lithium that can be a tailwind
5:26 am
for your business? >> basically the tailwind is ev batteries. you see warnings from automakers with combustion cars versus automakers without combustion cars. when you think about the kinds of cars that will have its demand growing in the next five years, right? >> all right. ana cabral, thank you very much. great to have you here. we want to mention signifia litm is part of the cnbc change makers. we have calling out for the 2025 nomination. to nominate a change maker now through november 11th, go to cnbc.com/changemakers. coming up, the bold and the bul
5:27 am
bullish. dan ives is here to tell you what you should add to your portfolio sooner rather than later. stay with us. much more "worldwide exchange" coming up. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley
5:29 am
why choose a mobile network help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. built for places you'll probably never be... ...instead of for where you are most of the time? xfinity mobile was designed for where you need it most. xfinity internet customers, ask how to get a free 5g phone and a second unlimited line free for a year. what really is impacted are the consumers of this country. the knock-on effect of a shutdown or of a strike really are quite damaging across the
5:30 am
entire economy. >> that was the national association of manufacturing president jay timmons here on "worldwide exchange" warning of what could be the east coast port labor strike in almost 50 years. we will have much more on what vert investors need know this half hour. good morning. i'm frank holland. let's kick off the half hour with the stock futures. we began the hour and they were in the red. right now, similar story. the s&p down 6 points off the lows. the dow down 25 points off the lows as well. the nasdaq down 29 points. again, off its lows. heading into the final day of q3 trading. the s&p and nasdaq within relative striking distance of their all-time highs. russell 2000, small caps are the laggard. 9.5% from the all-time levels.
5:31 am
utilities is up 18% in the past three months and on pace for the best quarter since 2003. we are also watching oil and the situation in the middle east. crude is down 16% in the quarter, but this morning, we see a bit of a reversal. crude is up fractionally. now we're seeing it completely reversed. wti down .25%. brent crude down almost .50%. still below key sentiment levels. $ $70. switching gears. we will turn to a developing story. we are hours away from the looming strike on keeast coast d gulf coast. fore estimated it would take eight days and a longer strike could last into 2025.
5:32 am
the white house released a statement. senior officials had been in touch with usmx representatives urging them to come to a fair agreement quickly. one that reflects the success of the companies. senior officials have been in touch with. ila for similar. the ila last week filed a complaint with the national labor relations board accusing the ila of not being able to negotiate. autos and pharmaceuticals are expected to be highly impacted. we are also hearing from the spirits industry. 77% of exports and 43% of imports come through the ports. >> even a day's strike could
5:33 am
have significant repercussions as we look forward to the holiday selling season. then impact of a strike like this with the supply chain and cost of shipping would be significant. >> the threat of a strike is causing problems. there is at least a double-digit premium to move to west coast ports. and compass diversified portfolio representatives spoke out. >> longer supply chain and lead times that we're having before to get containers out of china and here, we're seeing another two or three weeks added on to that. it will create more friction coming into the fourth quarter. >> the deadline is midnight eastern time tonight.
5:34 am
we'll cover the story all day on cnbc. and check out the nasdaq index roaring ahead of the pack with an 18% gain thanks to the excitement over artificial intelligence. the index has come back down to earth this quarter up more than 2% as market participation has been broadening out. here with a new note on what to expect is dan ives at wedbush. >> good to be here. >> i have to start with the outfit. great outfit. what's the catalyst? >> these are second trips in asia in the last 23few weeks. it starts with jensen huang with
5:35 am
the stock up 20%. i think the a.i. party is 9:00 p.m. with the party that doesn't end until 4:00 a.m. >> why does the party end at 4:00 a.m.? this metaphor cracks me up every time. this pushes the tech sector in q4. demand for what? chatbots? chips? what is the catalyst? >> if i look at a chip demand, 15 to 1 supply. enterprise is lining up in the a.i. revolution. now we will start to see the software use cases. that's where palantir and salesforce, now the tidal wave of spend, is coming to the shores of tech in the next two-to-three years. >> i interviewed alex karp a few weeks ago. he's a fan.
5:36 am
i want to get more of your notes. for every $1 spend of a.i. chips, $10 is in the tech sector. we just talked about utilities having their best quarter, excuse me, since 2003. is this spending on infrastructure? >> i think 8 to 10 is from software infrastructure. you talk about the energy piece. it speaks to our view that it's not just about nvidia or microsoft, it's now about the multiplier. i think the big catalyst in tech the next 12 to 18 months, numbers will go up 15% to 20% across the sector. i think a lot of the bears are continuing to be in the caves and hibernation mode. that's why in my opinion, the tech bull market is still in the second inning. >> dan, you are one of the
5:37 am
biggest bulls with tech overall. >> talk about scale. me and you have talked more years. there has been talk of some caution where you see some risk. right now, in terms of just fundamentally what we see, we see it across the board, not just in asia, but around the world. enterprises are lining up. it's about the next phase of tech. >> i want to talk about the i.t. and cybersecurity. a lot of investors i talked to say look at those. are we seeing these gains for the tech sector in these two areas? >> i think that is front and center. you talk about the use cases. it is not just palantie r and salesforce and others. you look at zscaler and cr crowdstrike. 1995 moment. it's not a 1999 bubble moment.
5:38 am
>> where do they finish the year? if you think tech rises 10%? >> 15% to 20%. i think these are specifically areas where i think you have just a huge parabolic run. >> the tech sector 10%? >> you will see mag seven and big tech continuing in the left lane. >> dan ives, thank you very much. >> thank you. coming up, a live report from north carolina with the wake of helene aftermath and the construction costs estimated to be in the billions. we're back after this. apting... deepfake: hey handsome. ♪♪ [inner monologue] ...always iterating. ♪♪
5:39 am
did you ever worry we wouldn't get to enjoy this? [jeff laughs maniacally] (inner monologue) seriously, i'm on the green and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. empower. what's next.
5:40 am
at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. business. pgim investments. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone.
5:41 am
powering possibilities. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." turning to the dire situation across the southeast. millions still without power. one area hit hard is western north carolina where jay gray is this morning in the blue ridge mountain community of boone. good morning, jay. >> reporter: good morning, frank. boone, like so many areas in the path of helene caked in mud right now and dealing with downed power lines and scattered piles of splintered wood and shattered glass and twisted metal and debris all along the path of this storm, really, from
5:42 am
florida to the carolinas. understand many of these communities are locked out right now. the debris or the water creating a situation where teams can't get in and support can't get in. they're working to clear away some of those areas and do the best they can with getting people in and trying to help out where they can, but so many of these communities are without power. more than 2 million across the strike zone without power right now. then they are also dealing with the lack of fuel. food is scarce in some of these areas. it will be a tough go for quite some time. the storm has been just overwhelming in the terms of victims. more than 80 people have died as a result of helene. we still have more than 100 missing. one-third of those victims, or more, are in the carolinas. this area has been hit very hard at this point.
5:43 am
restoring power, of course, one of the keys to getting back and trying to start some type of recovery. again, in some of the hardest hit areas, that may still be a while. not days, but weeks, we're told because of the situation and because of the debris that is everywhere as well as some of these areas still dealing with rushing water. frank. >> very serious situation there. wishing the best for all those people. cnbc's jay gray live in western north carolina. you and your team be safe. coming up on "worldwide exchange," one word that every investor needs to know today plus tracking the chinese stimulus stock pop. if it has more room to run or if it is standing on a house of cards. we have an emerging market watcher mark mobius with us. he'll be with us right after this break.
5:45 am
5:46 am
because when your people work better, everything works better. so, let's get to work. idris elba works here? mm-hmm. ya, he's super nice. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." china closing in on another session with the shanghai rallying 8% today. property and tech stocks leading the surge again. this after the record-breaking week following the surprise stimulus blitz in beijing and more stimulus this morning. hong kong wrapping up the best week since 1988. a number of china tracking etfs seeing their best weeks on record. the i-shares up over 16%.
5:47 am
the kraneshares up over 24% as well. joining me now is mark mobius, chairman of the mobius market funds. mark, good morning. >> good morning. >> mark, i think the question is if you are an investor in china, is it already priced in? i know we got more stimulus today. are the gains in the equities run about as far as they will run or is there more room to run in q4? >> i think there is more room to go. the reason for that is you must remember the chinese market represents something like 30% of the index of the emerging market index. if you look at the emerging market index now up 11% because of china -- of course, india continues to do well. most important, it has out performed the u.s. markets in the last six months. what does that mean? considering that 50% of all investors go into indexed funds,
5:48 am
etfs or other index funds so they are forced to go in china. with the rise in index, you will see more and more money going into china and a self fulfilling prophecy situation. >> you are saying more money is going into china. mark, in all fairness, if you have $50 to invest, you should put it in china. is that a tailwind for india? >> yes. india will benefit from the rise we have seen. more and more money will go into the index and that includes india and that includes china and other markets. even south africa is up by almost 10% recently. you will see emerging markets now on a roll as a result of the situation. china is really leading the pack. india is continuing to do very, very well. >> i have to ask are china and
5:49 am
india competitors for production and tech and for development of software and things like that? aren't they bumping heads? how is a tailwind for one be a tailwind for the other? >> in some respects, that's true. the number eof workers availabl for the high labor intensive industries is shrinking in china and that must move to india. you are seeing more and more chinese companies move tot fact. what is happening in china will help india. on the other side, india will not lose out. in the tech sector, the government in india is moving fast to encourage local production. you are seeing some stocks move up as a result of china policies to not allow nvidia chips to be
5:50 am
used, et cetera. >> one last question for you. you are also bullish on gold. you say 10% of the portfolio should be in gold right now. is there some other reason why you are bullish on gold? >> that's one thing. central bank buying. most importantly, india. per capita income in india is moving at a very high pace upwards. indians believe in gold. they use it at weddings for gifts and use it as a stored value as money. >> the consumer demand. that's the other tailwind for it? >> exactly. it will be consumer driven, but you notice the central banks continue to buy on the back of relying on the u.s. dollar. >> mark mobius, great to see you. you and dan ives competing for the outfit of the day here. great note out today. i appreciate it. coming up on "worldwide exchange," slamming the brakes.
5:51 am
auto stocks crushed inure. eop aston martin shares down almost 20%. losing about a quarter of their value today. we'll be right back. stay with us. at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about.
5:52 am
ameriprise financial. craig here pays too much for verizon wireless. is advice worth talking about. so he sublet half his real estate office to a pet shop. there's a smarter way to save. comcast business mobile. you could save up to an incredible 70% on your wireless bill. so you don't have to compromise. powering smarter savings. powering possibilities. switch to comcast busines internet and mobie and find out how to get te latest 5g phone on s with a qualifying trade-i.
5:54 am
exchange." as we close in on the 6:00 a.m. hour, here is what we're following. president biden will speak with prime minister benjamin netanyahu to avoid an all-out war as israel ramps up attacks on hezbollah. and gavin newsom vetoing the first of its kind a.i. safety bill. speaking of a.i., cnbc confirming reports that openai is reporting $500 billion of losses this year. sources tell cnbc the company lost $300 million in sales last month up 17% since the start of the last year and expecting to bring in $11 billion in sales next year. and glenview capital set to meet about a possible turn around plan. berkshire aghathaway is
5:55 am
selling more shares of bank of america. auto stocks in europe are down sharply. chrysler parent stellantis falling double digits as well as aston martin. what to watch in the week ahead, earnings from carnival cruise and nike and levi's and beyonce collaboration. two key events on tuesday as we will watch closely on "worldwide exchange." the first and only vice president debate between senator jd vance and governor tim walz. tuesday is the first day of the longshoreman strike that could cripple ports from maine to texas. we are looking at the futures all morning long. they have been in the red.
5:56 am
the dow looks like it would open 35 points lower. the nasdaq down 30 points as well. under just a bit of pressure right now. we will bring in keith lerner at truist wealth. good morning, keith. >> good morning, frank. >> what is your word of the day? >> my word of the day is trend. it is beyond today, frank. you know, there's an old saying on wall street saying don't fight the trend and don't fight the fed. today, we have global markets making 52-week highs over the last week or so. think about the s&p and developing national markets and emerging markets. don't fight the fed is the old saying. now don't fight the fed and don't fight china or the central bank as well. >> what's the trend investors should be focused on today?
5:57 am
i know you said beyond. the central bank cutting cycle? >> the trend that we're seeing in the overall markets issing moving higher. i think we'll see volatility in the election and spike in october. the overall trend is higher. that is cause d by what we are seeing globally. >> you have a note out with u.s. large cap is more attractive. emerging markets are less attractive. u.s. treasuries is less attractive. ch china. we have seen a big rally in china. are you not seeing a lot of opportunity in china beyond the stimulus we have already seen? >> i think timeframes matter, frank. we have seen the stimulus and the markets had a big move. if you look at china, itself, it is down 40% from where it was a year ago. it has more upset because
5:58 am
everyone was not positioned there. you had huge short interest. it is likely if you are more of a trader in the next month or two, there is upside there. we think there say bigger market. chinese profits have been flat for about ten years. again, you have stimulus and a bit of a short-term put from the chinese government that helps emerging markets overall. >> you are seeing u.s. treasuries. which end of the curve are you looking at for opportunities? >> i think more in the short-term right now moving from cash to two-to-five years. on the ten-year, we were bullish on the ten-year treasury loser to 4.60. we would be looking to extend duration above 4%, but not here. i heard some of the earlier guests like dan ives. we like tech. it is still double digits from
5:59 am
off the recent highs. the earning trends is strong. we are nowhere enclclose to bub territory. >> keith lerner, thank you. >> thank you, frank. right now, the s&p is down fr fractionally. the nasdaq down 30 points. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" starts right now. good morning. china's stimulus rally rolling on this morning. stocks there just had their best session in 16 years. shares of automaker stellantis plunging after the company cuts its full-year guidance. details straight ahead. and recovery efforts are under way from hurricane helene in communities in the united states as towns deal with the loss of power and cell service
6:00 am
and clean drinking water. it's monday, september 30th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we are getting to the end of the quarter here. if you want to look at the u.s. equities picture right now. you will see red arrows. dow futures off 36. s&p down 5. the nasdaq down by 26. if you are looking at what is happening in the treasury market, it looks like the two-year is 3.6%. the ten-year at 3.77. the bi
17 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on