the average shareholder. this would be one i would sell and move on. >> michael, i know you have a home in south florida. how did you get through the hurricane? >> you're nice. we're in naples, we did okay. we really feel so bad for the folks up toward the panhandle and the big bend area, tallahassee. it was really tough. this time, knock on wood, we're okay. >> unlike ian which did so much damage. thank you very much. and thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> guys, thanks so much. i'm scott wapner. we're going to talk about whether the strong year can keep going. first, let's look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. we've been mostly weaker today and that's where we stand. dow is down by one-half of 1%.

tech is mixed as well. apple rising. nvidia not so much. there's some defense of the iphone and the demand there and that is leading shares higher. we'll check yields. they're higher. that's an interesting part of this late-day developing story. fed chair jay powell saying just a little while ago that the economy is in solid shape, and speaking of, it's a big week for economic data, culminating with friday's jobs report. the talk of the tape, the bull run for stocks, how long can it last? let's ask the asset management chief strategist and chief investment strategist here with me. dan, i'll begin with you. let's just react to the fed chair because the market really didn't love what he had to say in terms of the space, the size of the rate cuts that we think that we're going to get, right?

he sort of tamped down expectations, it's going to be, hey, let's just set it at 50 basis points at the next meeting and thereafter. >> i read the speech on the way over here and i don't think he really said very much at all. listen, i think the important thing for investors at home, and this can't be said enough and i've said it plenty, the important thing for investors at home to remember is 25 versus 50 didn't matter. the path is clear. the fed is in the process of reducing interest rates by the end of next year. that more than any interval more than a specific meeting is what matters. the fed was getting constrictive, and is now transforming itself. that's what matters. how do you invest in that environment compared to what we've seen recently. >> the market is pricing in more than 25 each for the next two meetings. isn't that an issue?

how much of an adjustment does the market need to do respectfully to dan's points that he made? >> it's an honor to be on with my long-term colleague here. you know, listen -- >> i wish we could start without one of those. can we please answer the question? >> we didn't know if it was going to be 25 or 50, we just know the trend is your friend. the trend is your friend in terms of the trend of the fed. that's number one. number two, i really believe, and we've been saying this for two years, we'll probably say it for our forecast next year, we are on a path to normalization. what does normalization mean? zero percent interest rates, not normal. the kind of up-and-down volatility in stocks the last five years, not normal. with respect to valuations, not normal. it means 3% to 4% treasury and it means 10% to 15% compound growth rate of the united states

stock market, the average when you put in the yield. what does that mean for next year? if you're still looking at double-digit earnings growth, we're covering with the market continuing to head higher into next year with performance spreading out. i think the fed is doing its job, i think they've done a wonderful job. with respect to your specific question, a year ago, remember, a year ago they were looking for six cuts in 2024. they were wrong. so i would stress to people, do not focus on fed funds futures. focus on what the fed is actually saying and what the market is telling you. >> so your 6100 price target on the s&p, you're comfortable with, no matter what the chair said? look, the economy is good, okay? he said as much. now, yields are moving up, i think, in respect to that comment, and also the fact that, okay, so they're not going to be as aggressive as the market still seems to be pricing in.

thus the two-year, the yield is higher today than it was precut. >> that speaks to don't listen to the feds fund futures. they have to rebuild their credibility, scott. i know i've said this, but this is 1995-96 all over again. we're heading back into that environment. i think that bodes well for the large cap stocks. we saw the nifty 50s in 1995-96 spread out into other areas, including discretionary, telecom, but most importantly tech. that's going to be the main driver over the next twoto three years. >> skbii think the most interes part about this, you've seen the broadening out in the market. but it hasn't come at the expense of the mag 7. when you look at the charts, except for google, the rest of the names are doing very well,

meta is as an all-time high. while you're getting this broadening out into real estate, utilities, industrials, it's not as if those are coming down. >> you don't think if they go 25 next time and 25 after that, that matters at all to not only what the market itself does, but the broadening trade, which may have been pricing in a more aggressive fed and that's where those kinds of cyclical stocks were working over the last few months? >> i agree with the latter point. okay, it matters. but i think it matters in the shorter-term timeframe. if you're an investor with a horizon beyond a day, a week, a month, if you're looking at a year and saying the s&p is going to get to 6500 next year, whether the fed cuts 25 or not doesn't matter. what matters is if the economy continues to expand and corporate profits together and they're expected to do so. >> so you guys are in the camp

where it's laid out in the recent note, let's not make this any harder than it is. fed is easing, u.s. economy is picking up speed. so the path of least resistance remains higher. sounds exactly what you guys are arguing. >> exactly. so that's where we were at 5600. we rarely up our target twice in a year. we felt comfortable that we wanted to add value to your clients and upped to 5618. i can't say a target and prices are going to go higher by year end. we're very comfortable with 6000 plus. we came out with 6100 because that's what our model said in terms of risk-free rates. i think the momentum trade is starting to unwind, quite frankly, and we're going to start to see more strength from other areas. we're actually seeing that. what an awesome month of september in this quarter with respect to a broadening out from the sector perspective.

dan talked about utilities. if you remember earlier, my pick to click in terms of the contrarian idea for all of 2024 was rates. >> 16% in the quarter for real estate. utilities up 18%. industrials, almost 11%. financials, almost 10%. >> before anybody at home goes, of course, utilities and interest rates are coming down. before we do that, take a look at the chart of mcdonald and home depot. two companies that not that long ago everyone was citing as a reason the economy was rolling over. mcdonald a back at a new high, home depot pretty close. hilton, marriott, all at new highs. there's any number of stocks that are doing extremely well that have nothing to do with whether the fed cuts by 20 to 50 basis points. >> don't they have something to do with whether interest rates fall faster or slower? if the market needs to adjust

expectations as to where yields are going to e, doesn't that matter? >> it plmatters in the short te. >> from now to the end of the year? >> you're pricing in 50 basis point hikes. if they go 25, there might be a short-term adjustment. >> what do you mean, if for some reason? let's assume they're going to go 25 at the next meeting, because the fed chair seems to be now the base case. it's not like in case they go 50. it sound like they're going to go 25. >> we agree, the base case should be an expectation of 25 at the next two meetings, that's right. the risk, so to speak, they do 50 at the next meeting, if the jobs number prints 110,000 or something, on that point i would draw your attention to private payrolls, which have been sub 100,000. >> now you know what's going to happen, if they go 50 at the next meeting.

>> what do they know that we don't know? >> they don't know anything we don't know. >> i just said the labor market is strong, the economy is in really solid shape. yes, the labor market has cooled. 25 seems to be right. these are my words, but that's the case he's made. >> and, by the way, oil prices are down, which means gasoline prices are down, which is a boost to the consumer. >> he's been consistent, in a path of 25, 25, 25, with your view in terms of another 100 over the next year. you're talking about specific stocks. it's interesting everyone is worried about the consumer. but each one of those names you talked about has a specific theme. the consumer of the united states is really smart, and they've been very smart with their money. and, oh, by the way, when interest rates go down they have less pressure on their debt, so they're going to have more money to spend. >> are you making the case that the consumer is stronger than people think? >> yes, i am, because we've done

back-testing of sectors through years and years. when gdp actually slows, the consumer discretionary sector outperforms the s&p 500. whether it's stabilizing, it was higher a few years ago. so we have seen decelerating gdp. you can pick great stocks and themes in consumer discretionary. >> it's not an opinion. we just revised the gdp data that showed gross domestic income, we revised it by $800 billion, which took the rate from the low 30s to the low 50s. meaning the consumer is in better shape. 200 basis points higher than it would have been. that is all else equal, another incredibly encouraging data point for the economy and consumer. >> if all things are equal, then, brian, you would urge people to buy other areas of the

market today for the stretch run of the year -- we didn't even talk about the election, for the stretch run of the year rather than mega caps? >> first of all, we would not be buying etfs. we would maintain our positions in big tech, apple, nvidia, netflix, google. then we would trade down into the oracles, omds, broadcoms. and, by the way, you know i love financials. i think financials are under-owned by institutions. there's two predominant themes, the big banks and small banks on the spectrum, and asset managers, which includes a private equity manager and brokers because of the scale. >> you named two tech names, obviously out of the mag 7, but with completely different performance in the quarter. oracle is one of the better

performance out of the tech space. qualcomm not so much. you lump those together as if they're the same thing. >> that's why you want to trade down to the next level of tech. i think oracle has been one of our main tech positions for all of '23 and '24, we've been adding because of the cash. and then qualcomm could be that barbell with not only valuation but performance. qualcomm should be one you should be adding in terms of diversifying your portfolio. >> we just showed the charts of the quarter to date, and they tell two very different stories. one, oracle, has been able to capitalize on the ai craze, and the other one, qualcomm, has been going in the opposite direction. >> oracle, big software name. qualcomm had some of the noise with respect to the potential intel thing, which i think was more sideways. if you take a look at the

semiconductor stock with earnings and cash flow, that's your qualcomm. you want to buy stocks when they're doing, not only going up. and we think that qualcomm can be that barbell to nvidia's continued strength. >> do you like the financials as much as brian? >> i do. it's important to remember when we say financials -- >> banks, i think we're talking about banks. morgan stanley, bank of america. we're talking about those? >> expanding economy, lowering interest rates, the banks are attractive. the point i was going to make is in the financial sector now in the s&p 500, you include visa and mastercard, and the point i want to make, if there was something really wrong with the consumer, american express would not be doing what it's doing, capital one, neither would visa and mastercard. getting back to the financials, with respect to the broadening trade, financials were going to

have to participate. that's happened. i think everybody gets into the big bank versus small bank discussion, rightfully so. obviously there's variation, some are trade oriented, consumer oriented. the charts look good. obviously you still have jamie dimon worrying about the hurricane. but fundamentally, they continue to perform pretty well. >> on the banks i think there's something people are missing. there's the big banks, the smaller banks and really small banks. the really, really small banks, under $50 billion, from a fundamental perspective they're killing it because their cash flow the great, balance sheet is great, great management, and they're garnering a lot of small business volume. the big banks are going to benefit. the regionals, i think you're going to see more consolidation because they can't compete with jpmorgan. >> why are the big banks down over the past month? falling rates is not good for

net interest. >> you have jamie dimon talking everybody down. >> he's been doing that for 18 months. >> they've had a really good run and you might be seeing some rotation. i still think the banks are in very good position and they're going to head into the quarters and their reserves are not going to be so bad. >> no attention on the network is the asset managers. they don't get as much attention, fundamentally have been doing super well. >> what about health care? up 5% in the quarter, laid out a very bullish case for that space. do we like it, do we not? why are you apprehensive? >> what's really interesting, when the market was weak in those periods in july and parts of august and september, we saw

massive rotation into health care. then it came back out again. lilly is the largest stock in the s&p 500. i'm a little nervous. from a value perspective, names like pfizer and merck look interesting to us. from the discernibility of growth going forward, i think given the fact that it's the second largest sector in the s&p 500, you absolutely have to be aware of what's going on. i think it's a classic neutral. it's not growth, it's not value. >> you worry that glp-1 prices are only going one direction from here and that's lower and that's going to weigh on those businesses or the stock prices, if nothing else? >> i think so, scott. and i think you're going to have more consolidation. and i think you want to buy those areas with great balance sheets or pipelines like gilead. lilly is going to do what lilly

does. but you have to be careful with respect to owning too much health care. >> isn't it a looming positive that eventually these drugs are going to get government reimbursement approved, in which case you have 8%, 9%, 10% of the population on them, especially when every day we hear there's always a new malady. >> i think there are going to be a few winners, not across the entire sector. we're betting on the entire sector to be like that. >> what about the u.s. versus other areas? we're talking more about china more than years, at least in a positive day. you could look at a number of the tech names are doing quite well. is now the moment, even though the stocks are up a lot since the stimulus announcement? >> we've never been believers in the china market. it's massively underperformed for ten years. whether or not this is the bottom, they've had a d-shaped recovery. obviously with the stimulus.

remember, too, from a secular basis, we have to teach that population how to spend money. the majority of their growth was through buildings and roads and highways and railroads. still, wages are high, aging demographic. shadow banking system. i think this is a big bounce. it would be really difficult to try to discern where the top of this is. i believe it's more of a short-term move. >> so don't you own freeport? >> that's not a consumer name. >> obviously not. it's not? >> it's not. >> obviously you've had materials names like freeport, industrials like caterpillar, tech names like baba, casinos. all of those types of stocks were up a lot on that announcement. is that a game-changer for the way you need to look at those

names? >> freeport has been volatile for the last few years. you have to believe in the momentum and fundamentals. it's not just the china name. it is an overall growth name. you have to continue to maintain the positions there. but if you want, obviously if they had a big move, you have to be careful at these levels. >> i would just add, to some degree i think it is a game-changer. there's a lot of criticism about this particular package of a jufd j judgments, it's not enough to get growth above the 5% target, and ultimately the property market is the biggest problem. that said, the government has come out and -- i don't want to say put a line under things, but has put a line under things and said we're willing to do what's necessary. >> it's the whatever it takes moment. >> you could argue this is the first look at the chinese whatever it takes moment. if things get worse, they've suggested they're going to do more. they're going to support the stock market, the property

market. they have a very high precautionary savings rate. the consumer doesn't have the safety net we have and they don't think about consumption the same way we do. if you can figure out how to change that behavior, that's a whole different story. none of this does that. >> we're good. thanks, guys. >> thank you. >> i appreciate it. thanks for being here. seema mody for the biggest names moving into the close. >> 39 minutes left in trade and cvs jumping by 2.5% on news that there will be proposed fixes after glenview talked about a push. and echostar down big after it completed the sale of dish and sling tv to directv. the company's ceo saying on kw squawk to the street that it would allow them to negotiate

better deals with programmers. the stock up 50% this year. back to you. >> thank you. we're just getting started. up next, top technician ryan dietrich is breaking down the chart. chgee live at the new york stock exan. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. so when i had carpal tunnel syndrome, lower back pain, and shortness of breath, i thought that's what getting older felt like. thank goodness... ...i called my cardiologist. i have attr-cm, a rare but serious disease... ...and getting diagnosed early... ...made a difference. if you have any of these warning signs, don't wait, ask your cardiologist about attr-cm today. (♪♪)

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we're back. automakers are slipping in today's session. you see stelatsit down. >> this started last week when we heard from volkswagen, mercedes-benz. stelattis and aston martin saying we're not expecting to do

as well as expected in 2024. it's north american production. we've talked about that for some time. too much inventory, that's the primary concern. for aston martin, the china market has slowed down for luxury automobiles and the supply chain has caused issues. stellantis have cut their cash flow guide and they're cutting their margin cut. this was a brutal warning, any way you look at it. the stock is down 51% in the last six months. aston martin, they are falling on concerns about what's happening in china. we've seen the luxury market really come under pressure there. this has extended into concerns about overkcapacity with the ret of the market. all of them are feeling pressure today. tomorrow, we get the q3 sales from general motors and

stellantis. >> thank you, phil lebeau. last day of the month, last day of the quarter, stocks are taking a bit of a breather. we're sitting just below record highs. our next guest, setting the stage now for a market rally. chief market strategist, martin dietrich. welcome back. >> thank you. appreciate it. >> why is the stage set? >> great discussion you had earlier, obviously thoughts go out to everyone impacted by the hurricane. let's just look at what's happened so far this year. this year right now is, like, the best start to the year for s&p 500 since 1997. you think, maybe we're stretched, up 10 of 11 months, that's getting up there. maybe october could have volatility. the reality is this, i've come on for a long time saying the economy is stronger than people think. earnings growth continues to improve. the rotation trade into many groups continues. yes, we are stretched near term.

october is the worst month. i know i said something on the point of october. when you're up 20% for the year, october usually doesn't do that well. down seven out of nine times. 3% on average. the key thing, if we have get some volatility in an election year, october is usually not that great to begin with, would be perfectly normal with the underpinnings that got us to 42 all-time highs, and we think we'll be a good deal higher before the end of the year. >> historical things, i feel like they mean nothing. october is normally worst month for stocks and we're having this conversation. >> that caught a lot of people. we had volatility to start the month. i was in new york when we had the volatility. >> that was august 5th, two months ago. >> you remember now scared everyone got. now we are well off that.

you're right, that's the seasonals. just last week we got revision years was up 1%, just to put that in context, germany grew 0.3% over the last five years. income rates are gone higher and savings rates was revised higher to 4.9%. the reality is things aren't perfect, but the underlying pinnings are still there, it's still a strong economy. earnings growth is at an a all-time high, 267. this is the way it's going. >> there's reason to be optimistic. i mean, the fed chair himself was just talking how good the economy is. i mean, i know people want to knock this about it or that about it, but the overall economy is pretty solid. the labor market, though, softening a bit, still pretty

strong. that leads to my my next question, are you prepared for smaller rate cuts going forward? because that seems to be the table that the fed chair himself has set. >> we think it's possible, a couple of 25 basis point cuts is fine. i don't think another 50. honestly, another 50, it might mean the economy is weakening more and we don't see that. that's something to think about. you talked about rate cuts earlier. we take a look, when the fed cuts within 2% of all-time high, and it's happened 20 times. back in 2019 we saw it. this is one of those, it is what it is. one year later, s&p is higher 20 times, up almost 14% on average. the reality is, again, the fed is now cutting, the fed is more dovish. that is a tailwind. last comment, the fed is cutting for a couple of reasons. we think it's because inflation is last year's problem. we've been saying that for a while now. on friday they said inflation is

not really a problem, that's why rates are coming. >> what about the broadening? this quarter is going to be remembered as finally when you had the equal weight outpace the market cap weight. is that something that continues or no? >> we think it does. we're more neutral technology. three months ago people thought we were crazy to say that. it's going to happen when the fed starts to cut. small caps are a dirty word a lot of times. but mid caps have been our largest overweight all year. mid caps have done really well. with the cutting in play, we think the broadening out theme is alive and well. we think this is going to last more than a quarter or two. small caps are historically cheap since 1999. and they've outperformed large caps. we're saying the parts of the market that are cheap, you probably want to look into.

>> ryan, appreciate it very much. up next, fed chair powell saying the fed is not on a course for rate cuts. risch arichard fisher joins us next with his take on the speech. we're back after this. let me ask you. for your wedding, do you want a gazebo and a river? uh, i don't... what's a gazebo? something that your mother always wanted and never got. or...you could give these different investment options a shot. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think. i'm keeping the vest. (man) these men of means with their silver spoons. what will become of them when they discover robinhood gold allows others to earn their very liberal rates on idle cash. they would descend into chaos. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't

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we're lower heading into the close today. fed chair powell signaling that smaller rate cuts are on the horizon. joining me, former dallas head

chair, mr. fisher, welcome back. good to see you. >> thank you. >> i'm assuming that you did see chair powell today, and he really did seem to set the table, or at least to bring back market expectations that it's going to be 25 and 25 at the next two meetings. is that your take? and what's your reaction? >> i'm not surprised one bit. i wasn't expecting another 50. they'll be measured. you have to remember, scott, they're looking as well as they can, really, monetary policy, 18 months out, almost that much. i think it was important they did 50. but now i think it's very important to take smaller cuts and make sure you're comfortable with where things are going. we're going to get some more data by the time of the november meeting. certainly more by the time of the december meeting. the atlanta fed is showing really nice growth, 3% plus.

so the plane has not landed. it's not a soft landing, not a hard landing. i think they're gliding it just right. another two quarters sound just about right. >> what if we said, well, everything you said is right, the economy obviously is strong. gdp revisions were strong. but the rate where it is right now, it just doesn't make any sense relative to where inflation is. they're too restrictive, they're just more restrictive than they need to be, and by the time they come down from that, it's going to be too late. >> no, i don't buy that argument. they're not sure they're more restrictive. things have changed as they've progressed through time in our markets here in the united states. globally, there's a lot of liquidity out there, scott. spreads are still narrow. we have a lot of private lending and institutions coming in to

lend, taking a lot of space from the banks. the insurance companies, the pension funds. the dollar remains relatively strong. so given the financial conditions are quite accommodative, i would argue that with another two cuts we're not going to be too restrictive. that's my stance. >> why do you say 50 was right then for the move in september? i mean, there was a dissent. why do you say 50 was right given the case you've just made? >> i might have argued for 25 if i were still at the table. i think it was important to remind the marketplace, the fed can run a tight monetary policy, at the same time to make sure that they don't overdo it, they can reverse course. so, i would have argued and accepted 25 or 50, but they did 50. and i have no complaints about

it. >> but you also suggest that no landing, soft landing. i mean, what happens to this economy, and why don't you think that chair powell at this point has every right to declare victory that he's all but landed the plane at this point, better, i think, than anybody arguably would have expected at this point? >> you know i have a high regard for him and i think he's done a good job. the plane has not landed and his taking a victory lap really won't take place until after he leaves the fed in april of 2026. he still has a period to serve. i know him as a friend, he's a driven public servant to wants to get it right. it's not done. his job is still out there until the spring of 2026. and only then will we be able to declare victory, if, indeed, he is victorious.

>> i'm going to ask you one more question -- >> i was going to ask you about texas. >> i am. you're reading my mind. because i was going to ask you about that. because i'm reading, you're involved in that? and to what degree, as they're naming the leadership team of what some are calling the all street. >> we like to refer to it as bull markets, also, because we're texans. yes, i am their strategic adviser. they've asked me to consider being the chairman of their advisory committee. the reason for the texas stock exchange is pretty straightforward. this is the seventh or eighth largest economy in the world. we're about to overtake france in terms of our output. we have so many companies, s&p companies and others coming to list here, coming to reside here, run their businesses here. and i think it's important not just to have a duopoly, but

rather to expand the ability to access liquidity and have a good trading market. and there's a lot of logic to having it here. i love new york, i live there under senior adviser jeffries. frankly, new york is no longer the empire state. the empire state is texas. this is where things are growing. >> those are fighting words, mr. fisher. >> i knew they would be. >> they definitely are. because, i mean, i appreciate your love and everything for the state of texas, but, come on -- >> and for new york. >> i'm sitting in the heart of capitalism right now. >> i know, but 40 years from now it may not be so. but the point is, companies want to have access to markets, we have a duopoly here, nyse, we have the nasdaq. ours will be totally apolitical,

it will be driven by what's best for shareholders. and we have so many companies who have supported this, including blackrock. we'll just have to see how it works. we a long period to go. we're determined to get this up, make it good, helpful for all of those who want to raise capital and extend the ability to do so. that's what it's all about. >> i don't know if it was a freudian slip when you said a lot of companies down there, they list down there. do you actually think that you can take listings from the new york stock exchange and/or the nasdaq? >> we'll see. but some people like to co-list, right? so we'll have to see. we want to provide a service and hopefully that service will be provided. what you ought to do, scott, is get jim lee, who has led this exercise and made it happen. we announced it this morning at the governor's office in

mansion. get him on the show and let him explain it. it's a very thoughtful, well worked-out process that has been going on here, and, jim and others have worked on this for over a decade. now it's time to bring it to fruition. i think by 2026 we should be able to offer a good exchange, well capitalized. we've raised $135 million so far. no exchange was ever founded on that much capital. but these are modern times. we'll just have to see. and the point is to add to the possibility of anybody seeking financial backing, but also, importantly, the kind of liquidity one wants in trading markets, to extend the good that the nyse and the nasdaq have done. and we'll have to see how well it works. we believe it will work very effectively. >> we will have this conversation again. i appreciate it so very much. thank you very much. always good to catch up with

you. >> i'm always honored to be on your show. thank you. >> great to have you. that's richard fisher, thank you. up next, we track the biggest movers. >> scott, semiconductor etf is on track for gains this month, but down in the third quarter. we're going to reveal one of the key laggards and tell you why after this break.

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less than 15 from the closing well. back to seema mody for stocks she's watching. tell us what you see. >> on semiconductor, dropping about 4% due to exposure to the auto sector. stellantis reducing 2024 estimates after a prior drop about ten days ago when mercedes-benz lowered its estimates, auto exposure down as well. let's turn to gevernova, up after a positive note from morgan stanley has released this morning, an increase in power consumption as more data centers pop up across the nation and need more equipment suppliers to help manage the grid. evercore raising price target on the stock to 285 to 241.

the stock has been in record high territory the last few months. >> still ahead, we're going to drill down on what is sending carnival shares lower despite an earnings beat. the bell is coming right back. sector sort is sponsored by --

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steve kovach will tell us more. and carnival is lower despite topping expectations. we're positive, maybe the market coming around to the idea, stronger economy, better than bigger cuts? >> that's generally the case, i think, for sure. although i think what we did was clicked into whatever mechanical quarter end trades needed to happen by the close. we were still within distance of positive territory. i think the point is what well made. because all powell did is reiterate what was in the projections a week and a half ago. if the economy does what we think it's going to do, we have 50 more basis cuts this year. it was not intended as let's pull the market back from its current estimate. for now, good news remains good news. we're on a short leash because soft landings are contingent on the last data points. >> we've heard a lot of negativity about iphone demand heading into today. today we got positivity on the street and that makes a

difference in the stock. >> what a difference a week wakes. we're getting positive signals for the iphone 16 demand. jpmorgan and morgan stanley out with notes this morning and they've been tracking the shipping windows for all of the iphone 16 models. both say demand appears to have stabilized, especially for the pro models. morgan stanley calling it, quote, a positive development worth watching, and also saying lee times are similar to the iphone 12 and 13 super cycles. meantime, jpmorgan is saying that it looks like slower demand, and, it's, quote, starting to correct. and since preorders began a couple of weeks ago, lots of concern around the shipping windows were shorter than previous years. by the way, still unclear how apple intelligence launched next month and over the next several months are going to affect sales. for today, some positive data coming out. >> thank you very much. to seema mody on carnival, what's happening today? >> this was another strong

quarter. prices anticipated to go up next year as other parts of the travel sector have seen weaker demand, hotels, airlines, car rentals. the ceo says cruising has remained popular. >> if that's true that the consumer is slowing down in other sectors, that really bodes well for us to be able to take them into our demand profile, because we will be a value. we give a better experience at a better price than they could achieve elsewhere. >> stock is falling on a slightly weaker than expected fourth quarter guide, down today, scott. back to you. >> seema, thank you very much. that's seema mody. all right, the broadening, is it going to continue into the fourth quarter? >> it is a big question. most of the signs are positive, even if a little bit overbought internally. something like 70% of s&p stocks have outperformed the s&p over the prior two months. that's a pretty good run. you are seeing weakness, even

aside from the autos in consumer cyclicles today. we get ism manufacturing tomorrow. so that's a good test of whether the market continues to crave reassuring economic news, fewer cuts, or the reverse. >> jobs report friday, that's big, too. all right, the month is over. the quarter is over. stocks up 10 of 11 months. i'll send it to "overtime." that's the end of regulation. pure storage ringing the closing bell. we've got some volatilities to wrap up the month of september and the third quarter, as comments from fed chair powell sf spooked investors mid session. they did rally into the close. we might potentially be seeing another record close for the dow. that's the scorecard on wall