yet, if he's actually going to jump on the call to make any comments. >> regardless, analysts are going to want to know how this all shakes out, from nike fits in. >> and we'll be covering it here on "overtime." meantime, dow record close again today to finish out q-3. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> f >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. port strike countdown. we're just hours from a massive work stoppage up and down the east coast and along the gulf coast. how much damage could this strike have on the economy? and what retailers are most at risk for an extended strike. plus, unspeakable devastation. the death toll from hurricane helene continues to climb and the damage to towns, homes, roads, is almost beyond words. on the ground report coming up, and an early look at just how much the recovery could cost. and china's rally rolls on. the s&p gets set for the spooky

months of october. and tesla riding high. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- courtney garcia, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start with the countdown that cown roil trade across the eastern seaboard. long shoremen from new jersey to houston are expected to go on strike. truckers and rail operators have been scrambling to move the billion dollars of cargo at these ports effects retail to electronics to autos. nearly half of all goods imported to the u.s. go through these ports. earlier today, the claim per of commerce urged the biden administration to block the strike, saying it would be unconscionable to allow a shutdown to shock the economy. what kind of impact should have strike have, especially as we head into the all-important holiday season. guy? >> it's a huge deal. 36 ports, i think it's 60% of all traffic, but let's not quibble over a couple of percent. $5 billion a day, potentially.

and i don't think -- it's amazing to me the market doesn't seem to either recognize it or take it into consideration. and i think if they were to go -- once they go, it's probably going to be somewhat drawn out. i don't know if the biden administration comes in, says, this is illegal, whatever, force them to go to work, i have no idea how that works. but the fact that the market is seemingly whistling right past this on the back of inflation theoretically being tamed, this could be a very inflationary thing going forward for the next couple months of the year. >> the silver lining of that idea, though, is that this inflation caused by a strike would be transitory. >> transitory. truly transitory. >> yes. i think that is the case. i mean, i think that, you know, they are in a pretty good leveraging situation right now, right? but the longer it drags on, if it drags on long enough, then they start to lose leverage. so, i think the biden ministratp in here, we know that. but -- >> even election year, do you think that plays a role? >> that is a difficult question.

i don't know that harris would do that. i'm not really sure, i think they've -- at the moment, let's just see how it shakes out, hope they can get to them to the table. behind the scenes, they must be pushing very hard. >> yeah. court? >> the biggest risk is what it's going to do to inflation, which the fed has gotten down to a good level. but if that negates that that's what people are worried about. really the reason markets aren't putting this in, there's been extra traffic going through the ports, because people realized this was going to happen. people during covid, people didn't realize how much this could effect the economy. so, yes, it will have some disruption. longer than a people, people are expecting biden will probably step in. >> there could be some inflationary impact right now, because as things get rerouted, there could be surcharges because of this port strike that have already been, you know, seen, because they had to reroute through trucks or rail or whatever. >> yeah, i mean, put that together with some of the issues

we've seen just from a geopolitical standpoint. obviously what happened, you know, in europe a couple years ago, we've seen the knock-on effects for awhile. different trade routes and the like here for energy and, so, i don't know, at the end of the day, i think about this, and obviously inflation is the main focus, but if there was a bigger flareup, obviously in the middle east, you put all these things together, you say to yourself, okay, like, at some point, the market should start to price in a little risk. we have a vix that's still in the mid teens, proebably headin lower, but at the end of the day, what does it mean for earnings? what does it mean for these companies to be able to pass through these additional costs? we thought we were kind of done with that a year, year and a half ago? again, we just don't know. i think we can all hope there will be some sort of resolution, but at the end of the day, think about how biden, you know, he walked a picket line with union workers in michigan, what was that, a year, year and a half ago, so, it is kind of a dicey issue, as we're a month out of the election. >> just, you know, we sort of translate it to, well, all

right, what's the play here? the stocks reacted. fedex, u.p.s. if transportation switches to expensive air, right, that's great margins for them. so, stock was up nicely today. that would be transitory, as well, though, if they did have a big, you know, fedex express, a big quarter because of that, but -- today looks good for them. >> you're saying the longer the strike goes, the less leverage they have, only because the damage -- >> the damage is done, at some point, you can't save christmas, flight. >> right. >> in that case, there's less leverage. >> oh. that's interesting. the strike ruined christmas. that's a good tag. >> yeah, and i think, really what we want to look at here is, what does this mean? so, trying to change all the ports and everything here, we want to make sure that inflation is not going to get jeopardized, that's really where you're seeing a lot of these retailers, they're already starting to put on christmas sales and trying to

get people to buy now, because they're seeing this coming. >> interesting, the bond market is worth watching, we talked about it, but since they lowered rates, september 16th, tlt has only gone lower. which means yields are continuing to go higher and the longer end of the curve, which i think, again, the market is not paying enough attention to. typically, when we get this lee steepening of the yield curve, that's been a sign of bad things ahead. we'll see how that plays out, too. >> we're going to talk, obviously, a little bit later about what fed chair powell said, but when you think about this, you kind of left yourself some room. if they lower rates to counteract this and it ends up being transitory, it's going to have a double effect on inflation, when you have increased demand in the short-term and this idea that rates are going the be coming down, you could have a big surge, right, for folks who are going out and buying stuff again. and something we dealt with a couple years ago. >> for more on the impact this could have on retail, let's

bring in dana telsi. great to see you in person. >> great to see you guys in person, too. >> should we be worried that christmas will be ruined for the retailers? how much stuff is already here? >> yeah, a bunch of stuff here already. a lot of things got brought in in july and august. but to your point earlier, look at best buy, christmas in september. look next week, amazon, target, walmart. look at even bloomingdales. friends and family, 19th through the 30th of september. so, it is a concern, because anything that's going to make prices move up or delay christmas, when already you're having a consumer who is so bogged down with other things, geopolitical, or elections, it is -- it's a headwind for the retailers and a headwind for the consumer. >> dana, you're in the hall of fame in the space. >> thank you. >> is it the first time in almost -- >> in person -- >> i like the in-person thicng. >> it's good. >> amazing. let me ask you this, the dollar stores have been disastrous now for awhile.

is that more a tell on them or is it sort of a tell on the lower end consumer and the economy by deaf finitiondefinit? >> take a look at the strength at walmart and target, take a look at the off-pricers. the dollar stores are losing share to these other players, and dollar general is going to get hurt from this strike. >> who doesn't bring in goods early? i would think the bigger ones, they learned their lesson from the pandemic, they do it proactively, but who is a just in time retailer? >> apparel. you have a lot of apparel companies that are just in time. the aber com bee and fitch, the gaps. the ability to chase chase. let's see holiday 2024. >> let me ask you about high-end. >> yeah. >> we saw a big rebound just on the china news and sort of, you

know, okay, maybe they'll save the day, but what do you think of -- it's been a very difficult year for high-end. what do you think of that market right now? >> i'm concerned about the high end. i think when all the european luxury goods report their sales, middle to end of october, i think china sales are going to be down 30% plus. it's a headwind. when tiffany's closing, or, reducing the square footage of their shanghai floagship by 50% what does that say? it's a sluggish time in high end. >> some from japan. >> yeah, some -- because the chinese are going to japan, that's a benefit. but i always think about high end, who is going to benefit over time? you want to be with lvmh. they are the bellwether because of the strength of the brands they have. >> dana, ywhat are you expectin as far as discounting? that seems to be a trend that we see -- the earlier that the holiday season starts, especially online, it seems like

once the discounting starts, it really never ends and goes through early into january. >> exactly. when you think about what holiday is, that month is key. it's the redemption of gift cards, too. we're going to have a more promotional season in '24 than '23. it's starting already. getting the consumer to unpack their wallet -- look at the savings rate we've had, that's come down, too. and aspirational consumer of the middle income level, they're going to watch those prices. so, i think it will be more promotional. you look at the haves, decker, bier ken stock, and the off-pricers and the discounters, that is where the action's at. >> is there any concern about the notion of restoking and if they have to get more goods, they cannot, because of the port strike? >> some of them. but most of them have brought in enough goods, and you know who the benefit of this is at the end of the day? as goods come in, because we're all heard the statistics, every day, it could be another week to ten days or even up to six months until you get the flow

correct, hello off-pricers. tjx, ross, burlington, they're going to be the beneficiary of goods that won't come in on time. >> oh, i know where to shop now. >> my understanding is that walmart is the most exposed to the ports. >> heard that, too. >> but they're probably better capitalized than a lot of the other retailers. how do you see them faring? >> well, let's not forget, also, what is walmart's biggest percentage of sales coming from? food and grocery. so, yes, it's discretionary, too, but food and grocery is going to bring people in there on a regular basis, and the tradedown, or the go-to to walmart from the dollar stores will only help them this holiday season. >> so, how do you see the consumer overall? do you buy into the forecast for holiday spend? because they've been all pretty strong. >> overall, couple months ago, i was saying the consumer is sw squishy. rate cuts will help you, but you need four, five, six rate cuts.

but the labor market is ahead. it will be a much more measured holiday season, and maybe at the low end of that, are we going to be up 1%, 3%? something in that range. but inflation is baked in there and you can never discount the fact that people want a feel-good factor for the holiday and looking ahead to lower rates. >> dana, tjx, you mentioned. we talked about this stock forever on this show. at some point, valuation will matter, and it's probably trading maybe almost 27 times next year's numbers. is there a level where you say, you know what, it's too rich in terms of the stock? >> they're continuing to open up stores and they're getting productivity in their stores. the stores that are opening and also you're going to see the benefit of home goods continue to do even better. i'm saying, it's a train right now, you want to ride that train. >> what is your absolute favorite retailer? >> i mean, tjx is definitely one of them, because it does well in so many different environments. it's hard to find retailers that do well in all environments.

you got to look at costco, also. and they're one of the companies that overall isn't as impacted by the port strike. they're already prepared. >> dana, gate toreat to see you person. dana telsey. in terms of the stock, is it a bargain? >> it is. telsey advisory raised their price target on it, and it does make sense. you look at the stock, say, it's parabolic in terms of the move. it's expensive in terms of valuation, but they continue to grow into it. >> we've been worried collectively about the consumer for some time. are you feeling better now that rate cuts are fully in effect? >> it's funny, what i hear from her is not different what we've been talking about. there really is two sort of com economies and consumers right now. i think it plays out with the names she's talking about. on the valuation side, you look at a tjx, trading 28 times this

year. double digit-ish earnings growth. i look at target, i say, they had such a bad period for so long, maybe they got things under control a little bit, or at least they're not executing as poorly, trading 14 1/2 times this year. that looks kind of interesting to me, especially after the quarter and guidance they put up. all right, we continue to monitor the devastation in the aftermath of hurricane helene. the death toll now over 100 people, with thousands more missing throughout the southeast. more than 2 million customers are still without electricity in several states. nbc's jay gray filed this report from boone, north carolina. >> reporter: good evening. we want to give you a look at some of the devastation helene left behind. you can see power cables across the roadway here. they are down, they're not operating. and you can see how it happened. water filled this entire area. it was underwater in 30 minutes, residents say. this entire community caked in mud right now. you can see that water high enough to lift that suv, throw

it into this tree. and we've talked to a lot of people here, there are hundreds missing, and a very real concern about what that may mean long-term. now, emergency officials do say some of those missing just don't have the ability to communicate with anyone, all the cell service is down, no power for more than 2 million. we know that more than 100 have died as a result of this storm. and more than a third of those in the carolinas. they are choppering some essential supplies into those areas that are still just devastated to get into, either on the ground or by water. and they say they'll continue that for as long as necessary. as for restoring the power, in places like this, what we're hearing is, not days, but perhaps a week or more. that's the latest from here in boone, north carolina. i'm jay gray. now back to you. >> our thanks to nbc's jay gray in boone, north carolina. as the rebuilding effort begins, a couple names front and center in this effort, home depot and

lowe's. let's bring in research analyst peter keith. great to have you with us in person. i think it's a first, also, an historic day for the show. you upped the price target because of what's going on with interest rates. this is another story, but can you sort of walk us through the impact storms like this have had, because you would imagine the preparation and then the rebuilding. there's a couple of phases to this. >> yeah, hurricanes always drive some lift to home 'improvement, obviously tragedy aside, just trying to analyze the business case here. what we look at with helene is -- it's not actually as big a storm as what happened two years ago with hurricane ian, and that, at the time, maybe hadal 40 to 50 basis point, half a percent lift to same-store sales at the likes of home depot, lowe's. there is a rebuilding effort, so, that can last. is it a wind hurricane, or is it heavy rainfall?

when there's flooding, there's a lot more damage. so, this is similar, but a little smaller than what we saw with hur cricane ian. >> i think your price target was $387, you raised it to $455. you've been in front of this. here's my question. i get the rates come appropriate. how important is the unemployment rate? at what point does home depot sort of wane on the unemployment rate going closer to 4.7%? >> unemployment's important. i do think -- we talked earlier about the bifurcated economy, so, the upper income segment of the company are the homeowners, so, they are seeing low er rate right now. this is where we get more bullish. not only will that drive housing activity, home buying, but we see a refinance element, too, that's kicking in, and that was a big headline last week, where mortgage refi applications were up 175% year on year. that's off a very small base. mortgage rates are at 6.08%.

optically, when they get sub-six and people can refi to a rate with a five-handle, you're going to see further acceleration. that creates more monthly income for homeowners, because you can lower your interest rate, or, in the case of a cashout, now you are flush with a large cash ball lance to do some home improvement project. >> how about -- where do you think the existing home inventory shakes out? where do rates have to go to get that supply on the market? >> yeah, it's a very important question, it's very tough to answer. the problem right now is, people don't want to move, because they're locked into really attractive low 30-year rates. the mortgage data, it's about two-thirds of homeowners have a rate that's below -- at or below 4%. we're at 6.08% right now. you have a rways to go until someone says, i can swap from my current rate to an equal rate. but there will be a psychological decision that someone says, i really need to move, i need more space, i need a new job, whatever it might be, so maybe you're willing to go from that 3.5% to a 5%.

so, we do think as rates come down, it's just going to be more por bollic in terms of demand. >> i think just last week, a competitor of yours said that the refinancing cycle, lower mortgage rates, there's going to be substantial delay to this actually kicking in. i mean, historically, what have we seen in terms of when rates are cut and when it actually hits? we did see that increased activity for one week, but you know, what is the longer term trend? >> yeah, i looked at the refi dollars for ten-plus years, so, i can tell you, it takes about a quarter or two for it to show up. and you think about someone who is going to decide, i'm going to do a $50,000 remodel, you're going to line up the financing before you start to engage with a contractor, so, there is a little bit of a delay, but this will be important, because it's big ticket spending that's been abou ab normally weak. you drive stabilization in that, and that should be a point and a half to two points of same-store

sales improvement that could happen as early as q-4. >> peter, great to see you. >> great to be here, thank you. >> what do you think of the valuations here? >> expensive, but i like the trend. i feel like they will sort of grow into it, particularly home depot. or both, actually. >> yeah, it is expensive compared to its historical average. i agee with the whole idea that rates coming down is actually going to boost your home depot and lowe's, but there is still a risk, though, right, that rates may come down, but stay more elevated. i think you might want to be a little cautious with higher valuation. >> peter has been on the desk before. >> he has? >> i know that -- >> i feel so bad now, because you guys are high school buddies. >> you went -- >> what? >> yes. the first time in a very long time i saw him, we were downstairs, years and years ago. >> so long ago. >> is on the mount rushmore -- >> well, dan is. >> of analysts at large? >> maybe peter is in your high

school. >> there is a plaque for peter keith in my high school. >> is there? you didn't have a plaque. for lacrosse? >> please. >> what's the trade here? do you have a trade? or is this just a ramble? >> the point he made about the refinanci refinancing, we have the issue with the saving rate, it's stuck in there. y it probably lines up pretty well. especially if you have, you know, some more inventory come on the market with rates going down towards 5% or so, it sets up decently. >> last week, oppenheimer raised their price target to $500, citing similar reasons. one quick caveat, long-term chart, go back to december 2021, we're right up against those prior all-time highs. that's going to take some work. but valuation is stretched, but they probably continue to grow into it. coming up, auto stocks heading downhill. the competition from china that's dragging on those names.

and china's index seeing its best day since the 2008 financial crisis. where you should be in the overseas trade, when "fast money" returns. back in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc.

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welcome back too "fast money." automaker stellantis plunging 12% for its worst day in more than 12 years. the company cutting 2024 guidance, saying a deteriorating global industry backdrop and increase in competition from china are weighing on its business. shares of gm and ford also falling on the back of stellantis' warning. the north america market is particularly bad, there's a buildup of inventory, they have to cut shipments there to deal with all this, guy. >> listen, and it's been a tough slog. gm had a great run, we talked about it getting up against resistance, that's hard. ford's been the same stock price for the last 35 years or so. i mean, stellantis is its own thing. dan can talk about rivian. i think it's in your acronym -- >> thank you for reminding me. >> you're welcome. it comes down to, what does this

all mean for tesla, if anything? and are they going to be sort of inoculated, are they going to be sort of -- are they going to be, i guess, what's the word i'm looking for, protected -- >> immune. >> immune to what some of the ills going on, we're going to find out. >> you're seeing this kind of across the board, even the european carmakers are saying there's a lot of competition right now in china, which is a real problem for them. we were talking about the port strikes earlier, the automakers are ones that are particularly at-risk over there. it could potentially increase cost there, so, there's a lot in the short-term that's going to continue to present challenges here. >> there was just so much to hate about this, right? >> yeah. >> it was terrible. and, you know, when you have productions shrink, that's an enormous headwind. i think there's a credibility discount, however you want to say it, that just gets bigger and bigger every time they have sort of a big miss like this, now looking at trading, you know, low single digits. but hard to feel real

comfortable that, yeah, this is the bottom. >> guy mentioned with this tesla, and it will be interesting to see. a couple hundred billion dollars in market cap, it's gained just in the last few weeks or so. so, the question is, is it about q-3 deliveries that are reported tomorrow morning? >> robotaxi. >> possibly, october 10th. you know my waymo experience. >> yeah, with the jaguar. >> listen, after the sort of run that this stock has had, i'm really hard-pressed to see, even if they come in -- estimates for deliveries have coming up. china data looks a little better. some on the street have gotten as high as 480,000 deliveries, where i think consensus is at 460. so, it better come in somewhere between there or folks are going to get really disappointed. year over year, the numbers are still down, and tracking below 2023 numbers, so -- for this year. so, again, let's see how much this is robotaxi and the reaction to deliveries tomorrow. >> stellantis is warning that there's a lot -- they're

forecasting for the year as much as an $11 billion shortfall in -- >> in free cash flow. >> versus positive. >> right. >> what a difference. so, should we be marking down even further gm and ford? >> ford is its own animal. seemingly between 9-11 forever. but gm, given the decent run it had, you can say, maybe there is further downside in this thing. where did it close, $44.50? it's not ridiculous to see high 30s. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. stocks in china ripping higher, as government stimulus boosts investor optimism. the surge is fueling rallies in nearly every sector in the country. the names seeing the biggest moves, next. plus, u.s. stocks wrapping up a strong month, and an even stronger quarter. how the fed's new policy will impact markets. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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♪♪ ♪♪ sandals jamaica sale is now on. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals welcome back to "fast money." china stocks ripping higher. the country's shanghai composite jumping 8%, notching its best

day since 2008, as the g government's stimulus fueling markets. big moves in the kweb internet etf, jumping 25%. the fxi up nearly 15%. karen, we were on the call earlier today, you said literally, at the moment, you are dipping your toe into china. >> yes. >> what did you do? >> i bought some b>> i boughaba some fxi. i'd much rather have it come down more, because -- then i could feel more comfortable making a bet, given that just hy hyperbolic run it' had. however, i think the game has changed, right? and the idea we talked about before, i felt china was uninvestable, but shown a different hand. i thought that david tepper interview that he did the other morning was fantastic. and, so, interesting to me. occasionally, he has something very big to say. >> right. >> and sort of made me think, all right, well, we've seen some giant inflection points of other

things when the fed came out with the bazooka during the pandemic. even, you know, you could have felt two weeks later after the rally, oh, i missed the whole thing. but you didn't. >> right. >> and so, that's sort of what i think might happen here. >> yeah, i think this is something that, you know, we've had emerging market exposure, something we wanted to continue to add to, which has been really great to see that run here, but it's not just china benefits. a lot of your u.s. econ companie continuing to benefit. and you're seeing things like energy is really taking off. so this is a good thing for the global world, they are such a big part of the global economy. so, absolutely, you want to be in emerging markets, but it's going to be a big thing for the u.s. markets. >> these moves they've made, if these are just these right here, are going to work its way into the economy any time soon -- listen, we've never seen this happen in the u.s. where you are a straight line up 25% in a week. it just doesn't seem particularly something you want to chase. and i get what you're say, karen, you're sticking your toe

in. we've been talking about these names -- alibaba is the b in my zebra, for every dud that i have. they got too cheap. it was discounting a chinese consumer that looked like it was going to fall off the face of the earth. this stuff will help, but not right away. we were just talking about what do those things mean when rate cuts mean down here? and we know when rates were going higher, it was the long and variable lags. sentiment was so bad, i mean, that doesn't really mean that anything's coming soon for the economy to inflect, in my opinion. >> a couple of big problems in china, the stimulus does not help at all, first of all, the overhang of inventory, of houses. they are doing nothing about that. and the structural issue of just not having a workforce, the aging population, that's another problem that's not being ad addressed in this stimulus package. >> 100%. i don't know if there's necessarily anything they can do on that front. but clearly to me positioned at directed at stabilizing and getting their market to go higher.

success. with that said, you know, karen might get the pull-back. weevil been on this, i think, for awhile, tim's done a great job. the fxi, for example, traded to levels i think we saw in december of 2023. closed lower on the day. alibaba, same type of thing. so, these stocks, i think are in play. you're going to get a chance to buy both of these things a little cheaper than they are right now. coming up, shares of capri holdings jumping as the trial draws to a close. plus, more rate cuts ahead. fed chair powell on what we can expect from the central bank. what he said, when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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quarter. fed chief powell say ing they would cut, but in smaller increments. let's bring in jim bianco. go too far in what way? because today -- the baseline he laid out seemed to indicate 25 basis points at the next two meetings. >> yeah. you're right. he used the magic words over time, which meant don't expect another 50-base sis point cut right away, maybe we'll do 25 and 25. i fear he's going to go too far in that are i'm in the no landing camp, that i think the economy is okay, he kind of said that, too. he talked about normalizing interest rates. market thinks that's cut them all the way down to the low threes. that that might be too much and we might stimulate too much and see a resurgence of inflation. and that we're going to go too far the other way. >> we were talking about the port shutdown and what this could mean for inflation, right? so, we could see a spike in

inflation. do you think that weighs on his comments at all? and does that matter for policy? >> the port shutdown is going to be complicated for the fed in a lot of different ways, you're right. one, if we see the shutdown last for any significant period of time, let's call it more than three days, especially if it's more than a week, you're going to see shortages, you're going to see higher prices. if it lasts more than a week, you're going to see a lot of people getting laid off. and there is an argument to be made between the port shutdown and the hurricane, you could be looking at a negative payroll report, five days before the election? there's still a lot of moving parts with that, as well. this would just completely complicate what the fed is trying to do. >> what are your takes on the resteepening of the yield curve? historic in the amount of time that it was inverted, the speed where we've gotten, what, 20 basis points or so, is interesting what does it mean, if anything? >> well, you're right. if the yield curve had been the

longest it had been inverted, and the takeaway from that was, interest rates were not that punishing. i know the fed talked about they were restrictive and that they were dragging the economy. from the last rate hike to the first rate cut, last rate hike, august '23, to the first rate cut two weeks ago, the s&p was up 20%. the resteepening of the -- i think is somewhat of a bearish signal. the front end of the yield curve, around 365 in the two-year note, is essentially pricing in the entire move. so, if the fed does cut rates 200 basis points, what should the two-year note do? nothing, because it's already priced it all in, whiat should the back end do? they should rise, if we continue to see a steepening. so, a steepening in this time and at this setup is probably a bearish call on interest rates. >> let's say the port strike -- and the hurricane -- muddies the

data that comes in. do you think the fed will be more inclined to err to the side of waiting and just stepping back, saying, we're going to proceed with what we planned, or err in the way of going too far? >> i think they would probably slow down. i don't think that the fed wants to be viewed especially when it comes to the inflation story. let's remember, may of 2022 was the only meeting president biden had with chair powell, and he pointed at him, said, america, this is the guy that's going to get rid of inflation. and if you have that optic, because the fed is political, of a big inflation number, and then they decide that they're going to ignore that and start cutting rates aggressively in the face of that, that could be not a good optic for the fed. so, i think they probably go 25 until they see the data settle out once we got past it. >> okay. jim, great to see you. thank you for stopping by. it sounds almost like the real base case scenario is firmly 25

bay isis points. >> yeah, we've been talking about this a little bit, it seems like the market's moved ahead of this, right? so, a couple weeks ago when we got to that fed meeting, 25 or 50, i think they just said, listen, let's do this work, let's kind of take a step back a little bit. it was interesting to see the market's reaction today when fed chair powell was speaking. i mean, what did we go down, 40 basis points and then by the end of the day, we made it all back and closed up 40 basis points. >> i was surprised. >> i was, too. but to his point, the market didn't really mind the fact that we were kind of flat that whole time between the last hike and the first cut and they keep going higher. >> yeah. court? >> and i do agree with the idea here that, you know, they've cut 50 basis points, we need to see what they're going to do moving forward, but it is pretty much consensus that we're not going into recession. i think the bigger risk is they continue cutting too fast. and that's what you really want to make sure is not happening, because that can reignite inflation.

i don't think that's necessarily our base case, but it's more likely to happening than a recession. >> peter, dan's high school buddy -- >> yeah. >> years past, was talking about the increase in refinancing activity, right? and if that continues, i mean, think of all the cash that's all of a sudden in people's pockets just before the holiday. >> part of the -- >> already seen part of the -- >> part of the bull case, with rates coming down. but again, are rates coming down? i'll continue to point to the tlt until i'm proven incorrect. i think the tlt continues to go down here, which means ten-year yields and farther out will continue to go higher. i don't necessarily know what it means, but i don't think it's necessarily good. coming up, shares of capri holdings moving. the fate of that deal when "fast money" returns.

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money." capri stock jumping 7.5% today as a judge began hearing arguments in a cruel legal battle. since the try began on september 9th, capri's judged 22%. karen, you've been in -- >> i'm in capri, i'm in a little bit of tapestry, which is a hedge, but i just -- so today was the closing arguments, and apparently it seemed like the judge was sort of -- there was no bombshell or anything like that, it was more, the questions she was asking of the companies versus the government seem to sort of make one confident that the government's case really isn't that great, which i think is the case, i feel like this tiny sub section of affordable luxury, which actually is very crowded, you know, and kors went to great lengths to say, look,

our brand is losing value, we can't just merge and that's it, and we have price power. we don't. that's a compelling argument. as well as, they named 150 other competitors. >> right. >> so, to me, this is sort of a ridiculous case to bring. and we'll find out. the judge has it, i don't know, maybe three weeks or so. and i think it will either -- capri will be low 20, 20ish, or 57. >> there were so many emails submitted in the court case, just -- michael kors executives lamenting that their handbags were selling for much less, at $100 when they were marked $400. >> how damaged the brand is. >> which goes in their favor. >> absolutely. and i think that's really why the government doesn't have that great of a case here. i think most people, that's really the consensus here. similar things have not been blocked in the past.

the base case, if this doesn't go through, that would be a positive for the stock. we'll hear as closing argue ms come. >> guy, you're an expert in handbags. i say that in all seriousness. >> except that people might not understand that i actually am an expert. >> exactly right. you really are. >> i learned a term today that i didn't know. brand heat. did you know this? >> no. >> that came up today in some of the things that i read about brand heat, around luxury bags and stuff. i'll say this -- if you are buying, like your chanel bag, you are full-out retail, you're doing it wrong. go to places like the real real, where you can find lovely bags at a fraction of their original cost. >> the more you know. >> yeah. coming up, an activist investor making moves on a pharmacy giant. what they want to change for cvs. how it cldmpt e ocou iacthstk. that's next. , and lower back pain, we wondered, could these be warning signs

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let's say you're deep in a show or a game or the game. on a train, at home, at work. okay, maybe not at work. point is at xfinity. we're constantly engineering new ways to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island? welcome back to "fast money." cvs shares rising more than 2% today after "the wall street journal" reported that an activist investor is looking to make changes at the pharmacy retailer. larry robbins reportedly meeting with the cvs ceo. that is hopeful, in this story,

karen. >> yes, i mean, i think they'd like to do the right things. we don't know exactly what he wants to energize, i don't think he wants to make gigantic changes. i just think it's a collection of businesses that are really in a difficult time right now, the combination of front of store and amazon threat, what's happening in the pharmacy business, the pbm business. and, you know, you've had some insurers that have had trouble, they do own a significant insurer, so -- it's cheap. it should be cheap. there's a lot -- there's a lot of difficult stuff to get through here, so, i don't own it. >> going to be layoffs, going to do cost-cutting. $2 billion is the number i saw. probably got to be bigger than that. but if you want to play a little stock market, this is one that's been down for so long, it's actually had a decent month. one of the better for forming stocks this month in that sector. there's probably more room on the upside. i don't think any of their problems are going to be fixed. if you want to play stock market here, this is decent on the long side. >> it does seem, sort of in the

crosshairs of everything that's very difficult these days -- >> absolutely. yeah, and i think one of their biggest issues is medical costs going higher. so, that's the question. i think this is good news that you're getting investors out there that are going to push for some change, but what that is or how that's actually going to, you know, wore for them, that's what everybody is waiting to hear. >> that walgreens valuation is -- >> oh, my -- >> crazy. >> there's a lot of debt. so, the stock -- there's a ton of debt there. up next, final trades.

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the search has begun for the 2025 cnbc change mears, which recognizing women transforming business. visit cnbc.com/changemakers or use the qr code on the screen to nominate your choice now through november 11th. karen is on the board of change makers. >> i am. this is the second year. last year -- i mean, it was so fantastic. they had so many incredible women from so many different walks of life. and julia boorstin did an outstanding job. they had a great event, they had a great dinner after, so, it will be interesting to see who they pick this year. i put my picks in. >> oh. >> hope i get a couple of them. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. courtney? >> emerging markets here, vwo. we talk a lot about china, but even india has a really impressive growth rate. >> is that the v in the v scheme? >> just rom rolls off the tongu. >> karen? >> mine is jpmorgan on the heels of that morgan stanley downgrade. i still like it and nobody puts

jamie in the corner. >> dan? >> she's sogood at mark. she's so bad at acronyms. let's just be clear on that. target is interesting here. >> guy? >> i hate the mets, as you know, but you have to give them their just due. big win, congrats. take a look at what, mel? >> at what, mel? the nasdaq. happy 25-year anniversary. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to make a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but to teach. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. what can i say about this third quarter, the one we just put paid to. come