that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines. uae state oil firm adnoc strikes a several billion euro deal and marking one of the biggest foreign takeovers by a gulf state. we will speak to ceo marcus s

sts steilman this hour. and the ecb's christine lagarde and fed's jay powell pledge to tack le any looming recession risks. >> inflation will return to target in a timely manner. we will take that into account. >> if the economy performs as expected, that means two more cuts this cayear. over in asia, the prime minister reveals his cabinet and finance minister. and 50,000 u.s. port workers begin their first strike in almost 50 years in a move that could cost the u.s. economy $5 billion per day.

good morning, everyone. welcome to the show. we have a lot to get through. let's kick things off with the eurozone final manufacturing pmi data. that has seemingly taken a turn for the worse. we are seeing the final number at 45 when it comes to the manufacturing pmi versus the flash of 44.8. we saw the german number still shockingly bad at 44.6. the french manufacturing pmi number easing in september still in contraction. the italian is deepening as well. let's show twwhat the euro/doll is doing. that's the picture down 0.2% on the day. the level we're trading is

111.11. a quick check of the equity markets and a mixed picture today on the first trading day of october and the fourth quarter, of course. we are up 0.1%. we have a big mya&a story to te you about. we'll get to that in a couple of minutes. i want to show you the bourses one by one. the ftse 100 is up by 0.3%. similar percentage gain for the dax. covestro is the gainer for the index. the cac 40 is under water. let's start with the worst performers. sorry, that's the best per

perf performers. technology doing well to the upside here. travel and leisure up 0.6%. when it comes to the under performers on the relative basis with the sectors, this is the picture. oil and gas down 1%. we'll be talking oil prices later. household goods down .23%. we will find a lot of the luxury names in there and they had a stellar week. i want to let you know morgan stanley downgraded the banking sector due to the economic data and that was highlighted in the final manufacturing pmi. let's get back to the big story of the day. adnoc made a takeover offer for covestro which value the company at 15 billion euros in debt.

annette has been poring overall of the details. annette, this is long in the mak making. take us through details. >> reporter: ever since the first approach has been done more than a year now, what we are here now is they started off with an offer of 55 euro per share. now at 62 euro per share and that is approved by the management board. that is what we are hearing from both companies. this is a friendly takeover story. adnoc is buying into the growth strategy. they also say they keep all plans and all labor contracts in tact until at least 2028. of course, what we have been hearing from covestro recently, everything inside germany is not profitable. that is mainly on high energy costs. they make their money elsewhere.

the energy consideration will probably not go away, but the business model as much, seems to be very much in tact. so, adnoc is diversifying its set up with the acquisition. covestro gets a lot of money to grow further and invest more into their business. their main customers come from the automotive sector, furniture sector and construction sector. the auto and construction, of course, in a difficult situation right now almost everywhere in the world with the interest rates and the crisis in the automotive sector. they have recently cut their guidance as well, but this didn't deter adnoc. now we have a deal between two companies. what we need now is the approval by the shareholders. they need to have 50% plus one

share approval rating. it is highly likely given the higher price of 62 euro is likely compared to 50% when they first knocked on the door at covestro even more 20% when covestro said okay in june we go into a firm due diligence process. so, shareholders did benefit from the mm&a story quite a bit. that might make them agree to the takeover. it's historically an interesting deal because this is the first time ever that a dax company has actually taken over by a middle east company. one of the biggest acquisitions, you pointed out, for of a middle east company for a company elsewhere in the world. >> annette, thank you for that. it is interesting to note here so much opposition to banking tieup. very little opposition to the

tieup. obviously different interests. annette, thank you. stay tuned to cnbc. we will speak to marcus steilemann. don't miss that conversation. that is a first on cnbc. money markets ramped up bets that the ecb could cut rates at the next policy meeting after comments from christine lagarde pointed to growing confidence that inflation is heading into the right direction. economists at goldman sachs and bnp all revised outlook to a rate cut at the central bank meeting on october 17th. speaking at brussels at the parliamentary hearing, lagarde said she was confident inflation c was coming back down to target. >> looking ahead, inflation might temporarily increase in the fourth quarter of this year as previous sharp falls in energy prices drop out of the

annual rates, but the latest developments strengthen or confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner. we will take that into account in our next monetary policy meeting in october. >> meanwhile, state sside fed j powell said the fed will aggressively cut rates before year end. speaking before the audience in nashville, the fed chair sees inflation easing and the u.s. economy continuing to grow strongly putting the fmoc in no hurry to cut rates quickly. >> we will do what it takes in the speed with which we move. if you look at where we were two weeks ago, coming up on three weeks ago, i guess, when we wrote down our sep and made our decision, it was a decision that

the bulk of the committee was 57 75 or 50 basis points. of course, that will depend on the data. ultimately, that's the baseline. if the economy performs as expected, that would mean two more cuts this year. a total of 50 more. >> so what do these comments mean for u.s. equity investors? let's ask charles henri? powell telling the markets hold your horses. not too quickly. we will not do a series of jumbo cuts. let's say we get two more 25-basis point cuts from the fed this year, are you still key on risk assets? >> yes. we have the two world's largest economies, u.s. and china, inflating and cutting rates and

ready to implement more fiscal measures. that doesn't look deflationary. that's bullish. we know there are some downside risks. the fact that the world is now cutting rates and reflating in u.s. and china, it is bullish for risk assets. >> you mentioned the high valuations and complacency creeping into the markets. we're only 40 days away from the u.s. elections and that could inject more volatility here. should we be careful in how much risk we're taking in this environment? >> it's true some risk is not to be priced in. you mentioned geopolitical risk. you mentioned the u.s. election and the violence in the middle

east. you mentioned the new prime minister coming in japan and he is probably keen on more rates in japan. there are more risks there. the market is offsetting this risk with the fact that when you have both monetary policy and fiscal policy acting as a tailwind, you want to belong equities even if the positioning is, indeed, already quite stretched. >> it is note worthy you talk about the magic combo. what is this magic combo? >> the magic combo for international market is not just what we are seeing or the u.s. market or tech advancing. we are seeing a growing of the equity market advance more than 50% of the global markets in the world at all-time highs. also in the u.s., 80% of the stocks are moving up. why is that? the magic combo is when you have

weak oil, weak dollar and low bond yield at the time when the economy is at a recession. i think the combination of factors are offsetting the risk that we just discussed. >> charles-henry, there is $62 trillion in money market funds. you could argue with the jumbo cut from the fed, all of this money is pouring into equity markets. so far, it hasn't really happened. why is that and when will you see that $6 trillion unleashed into the markets? >> that was a surprise of the money flows we have seen over the last two weeks. indeed, it is surprising to see that money market funds are still gathering assets. they are at new all-time highs. they gather $200 million.

yes, equity funds with in fflow. one of the things we have to keep in mind here is if you look at the numbers, money market funds as a percentage of total assets is quite low. that means the market was already expecting the cuts and taking long positions on risk assets. that may be the explanation. we believe at some point at some level, there is still, let's say, some leeway for money to move into the markets. >> would it all go into the sglekt equities? where do you see the income? what about gold? gold has had a stellar run this past quarter up by almost 14%. the best quarter in eight years. should we be overlooking gold because the rally's been so

strong? >> when it comes to gold, we have been long gold for some time. we see that in banks which are rising their target price. this year is the year with the two best asset classes with bitcoin and gold. two store values. the reason of this is also the fact that most investors know that all of these growths, which has been over the last few years, is also coming from the fact that the u.s. are using fiscal policy and the machine to spur growth. this is why asset allocateors i looking for the firms. the advance of gold is coming from central banks buying gold. not the normal regular investor. that means if average investor

stops moving money into gold, we could see more upside. >> thank you for your insights. always appreciate it. charles-henry from syz group. i have been looking at comments from the ceo of covestro who has been talking about the massive deal unveiled this morning. obviously, we're seeing abu dhabi buying covestro for 14 billion euro. they expect the takeover to be complete in the second half of the year. he adds to reuters that the duration of the investment agreement is considerably longer than what would be expected with such a transaction. they do not expect significant changes to the governance structure even after 2028. they have a running contract until 2028. this is still valid. i should remind you we will be speaking to the ceo marcus steilemann at 9:45 a.m.

k k quick check of the asian markets. the markets are offline today for the golden week holiday. the nikkei 225, though, bouncing back nicely from a bit of weakness in yesterday's trading session. up almost 2%. this as japanese's new prime minister shigeru ishiba announced the members of the cabinet. including kato as finance minister. kato served in the abe administration. he was one who lost to ishiba last week in the liberal democratic leadership race. still coming up on the show, israel troops enter lebanon and carry out targeted raids and look to bring hezbollah back from the border. we'll have the latest after this short break.

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the israeli military begun localized targeted rates inside lek lebanon. u.s. officials said israel informed them. the sources expect the incursion to last for days, not weeks, and be limited in scale and scope. on the back of this, quick check of oil prices. we are seeing them trend to the down side. wti at $67.11 . ice brent crude is down 70.47. the third month of declines since november of 2022. we saw similar percentage decline for wti down 7%. in the meantime, just to let you know that the new nato chief will be speaking very soon.

he has been on the tape saying the conflict in ukraine is not contained to the frontlines. this is a big moment, obviously, the new chief of nato speaking very, very soon. there he is quite lighthearted, but the situation in europe or rounding ukraine is still dire. the berlin summit is going on. we have hesebastian here with more. israel's limited incursion and ground troops in lebanon, how will iran respond here? >> reporter: well, i think what we are seeing now is israel trying to press its military advantage in this scope that

way. limited incursions meaning hezbollah infrastructure and hezbollah firing positions and forces in the area in order to secure that part across the border. i think what we have seen from iran so far is a reluctance to engage in any activity that could be seen as escalatory and for iran, hezbollah has been actor that has been valued quite a bit by the leadership in iran. i think we see that balance shift at the moment. >> absolutely. as you point out here, hezbollah wasn't any proxy of iran, but main deterrent with any sort of attacks coming from israel on its arsenal. i want to pick your brain here, i know you're not an analyst, we are seeing no risk petrremium i the price of oil.

is there still the fear and real risk of bigger conflict in the region? >> well, i think this has actually been surprising over the last couple months how little this risk-off escalation has been priced in and i think, i would say for now, israel is feeling that it has the backing of the u.s. where it counts and it is willing to engage in at least certain degrees of escalation. i would say for the time being there is certainly remaining risk there that we could see a further expansion of this conflict. >> bastian, let's move on to the next conflict. ukraine. obviously, there is a lot of risk stemming from the outcome of the u.s. elections. trump, when he met mr. zelenskyy last week, said i can end this conflict in 24-to-48 hours but, this is not palatable because it

would have to give up large parts of the country and territory. how does this conflict end and how does it end determining the outcome of the election? >> i think both sides feel they have more to gain from continuing to fight. i think that is the situation they're in. for both sides, i think it will be increasingly challenging to maintain the structure they have to maintain and the manpower to make sure they have enough equipment going into the frontlines. so that appetite, i would expect, would wane. as you said, a lot will depend on the outcome of the u.s. election. i don't have a crystal ball. i can't predict what will happen there. i think many around europe and the new nato secretary-general, of course, will spend quite a lot of time on the next couple weeks monitoring that and being

ready to engage as soon as there is a result. >> obviously, there is a big question of funding here. if funding for ukraine falls to the cliff coming from the u.s. if trump comes back into the white house, can europe pick up the tab? >> i think it will be hard for europe, but not impossible, but it is a decision or a question for political leadership. there's no structure factor that will prevent europeans from doing this. europe has, of course, the problem right now that there are a couple of important countries, including the uk with the constraints and physfiscal spacd we have other countries where the government is not in the strongest of positions. germany would certainly be one of those. maintaining that unity and could hear especould coherence would

difficult. the war in ukraine should be of interest to all nations. >> bastian, thank you for your time. director general and cio of iiss. still coming up on the show, u.s. port workers on east and gulf coast go on strike bringing billions of dollars of trade to a halt. we will dig into the deep rlidwodwe implications. that's in two minutes.

hello. well come to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines. adnoc comes to a deal to buy covestro and one of the largest ever foreign takeovers by a gulf state. we markus

steilemann. the ecb's christine lagarde and fed chair jay powell pledge to tackle any looming recession risks. >> inflation will return to target in a timely manner. we will take that into account. >> if the economy performs as expected, that would mean two more cuts this year. total of 50 more. over in asia, japanese equities recover ground while the country's new prime minister unveils his cabinet appointing katsunobu kato as finance minister. and the u.s. port workers strike in almost 50 years in what economists say could cost the economy almost $5 billion per day. all right. let's take you straight to some uk data in the form of the

financial manufacturing pmi for the month of september. that came in bang in line with the flash estimate of 51.5 versus 52.5 in the month of august. it seems as though some of the uk budget worries way on the factors. that is still interesting to note. obviously, we'll get the budget and, of course, more insights coming from the labour party later on this month. quick check of sterling-dollar. 1.3343. that is one of the best so far this year. why? cuts by the boe are slower than also where. a quick check of the equity markets and we're just modestly higher by the tune of 2.2%. bouncing back from the weakness in yesterday's trading session

on the back of the autos downgrades and guidance cuts. today, when it comes to the sectors, banks are under performing because morgan stanley has downgraded the sector because of faster and deeper rate cuts. when it comes to european yields, this is the story. that's the european bourses. ftse 100 is up 0.3%. the dax is the exciting story with the m&a story we're seeing there with covestro and adnoc out of abu dhabi. the cac 40 is under performing to the tune of 0.2%. now we talk about the bond markets. the euro inflation numbers later today. yesterday, we got the euro inflation numbers below the 2% figure for the first time. when it comes to the ten-year bund yield, 0.7%.

this is the u.s. treasuries. we had jay powell cutting back the deep rate cuts. no more jumbo rate cuts coming from jay powell. the ten-year yield sitting at 3.75% in terms of that yield. a quick check of the u.s. futures. the dow jones is falling by 96 points. the nasdaq is eeking out a modest gain. we did see a record close by the s&p up by 0.4%. for the quarter, a pretty strong performance here almost 9% for every index for the last quarter. let's get to one of our top stories. members of the u.s. dock workers union have gone trying after failing to reach agreement with port owners on a new contract with industrial actions set to impact billions of dollars worth

of trade. arabile has been poring over the numbers. the impact could be huge. >> it could be. you had word from chicago fed president austan goolsbee about the ramifications if it continues too long and the impact on inflation and even on dpr growth. this is the first coastal wide ila strike since 1977. ila, international longshoreman association. now, analysts at jpmorgan say the strike will cost the economy roughly $5 billion a day as shipments are disrupted. the affected ports represent half of u.s. container imports into the u.s. and 68% of container exports. big impact there on trade. national federation of retailers

ceo says this could damage the concerns on inflation. >> the i mpact on the retail industry, but we live in a global economy. whether it is retail or automotive or pharmaceuticals or food and drinks and beverages will be impacted at a time when we're finally turning a corner on inflation. we know the job market and overall economic activity is moderated from the highs in the last several years. this is the last thing we need as a self inflicted wound as we go into the fourth quarter of the year. >> what's on the table here? the u.s. march titime alliance offered a bid of 50% pay rise over six years. that was rejected by the ila. why? the union called for a 77% pay increase over the course of the deal and a total ban on auto makes. total ban on auto makes.

accusing the ports over half century of wage sub ri gags. the port of los angeles is not one directly impacted by the strike, but workers need to be rewarded. >> these dock workers have gone through the cycle where the economy has changed. profits have been earned in companies that reinvest and dock workers need to be paid. we hope for a swift resolution. collective bargaining is really hard. the economic impact, i'm hopeful, is very short and we can catch up quickly. >> considering the scale, what is the political impact? president biden has resisted calls to intervene with the administration saying he would not use legal action for 80 days and reserve both sides negotiate in good faith.

neal bradley is with the suu.s. chamber of commerce and called for president biden to step in. >> you have a winone day backlo and that takes six days to clear. if the strike goes on for two days, you are talking about two weeks to clean up the mess that's created. it is not hard to imagine that a strike lasting one week disrupts the economy well into november. >> if you take that to around three weeks, you could go all the way to the middle of november and as we head to the christmas season, the impact on pricing and delays of getting christmas shopping items may be hurt and the impact on inflation and consumers. >> i'm worried about the christmas -- my kids will be worried. >> and michigan is close to there as well. vehicle exports out of the u.s.

could be a problem for them and every other aspects, too. meaning the factory items we're looking for and including toys. >> demand for vehicles is not as strong as toys for christmas. i can attest to that. let's talk more about this with the chief analyst. pe peter, your bread and butter is looking at freight rates. how have they spoke spiked so f? what has been priced in? >> we see the drama priced in on the trade lanes most impacted by the disruption right here and right now. that means exports from the mediterranean and u.s. east coast. we see spot rates jump by the extent of 15% to 20% from early day here. i must say also that the only real alternative to the closed ports on the east coast and west coast, the longer and more expensive routing into the u.s.

west coast as you talked to gene of los angeles just a moment ago. we see rates potentially jumps by $1,000 on the alternative route. that is approximately 30% up on day one. game on. >> that's according to peter sand here. is it all priced in or do you think spot rates would move higher more quickly? from past experience, past disruption, what's the path here? >> i think we tend to see a jump on the very early hours and early days when a disruption like this hits the fan. then people find their contingency plans and find out if this will last more than one day or a week or will this last a month and they will start to find ways to work around that. we expect perhaps a flat development in the coming hours

and days most likely. then we get to see carriers also pushing rates higher because this is obviously also a big disruption to their networks. we have seen many carriers announce surcharges that they will evoke today and a little bit later to the extent of $1,500 to $3,000 per box. that is the extent you should be looking forward to seeing on the spot market rates if this goes on for more than a few days. we expect it to go on for a week. >> for a week. what about the consumer implications here? we're talking about christmas before. this is happening dangerously close to the all-important christmas time. what is beyond the availability of toys or electronics or food? what about actual shortages? what about actual price hikes for the end consumer?

>> i think at first they will see perishable goods. goods that are time sensitive and perhaps temperature controlled goods and finding perhaps a shortage on bananas is the big commodity to mention one that consumer can relate to easily in miami and u.s. east coast in general. fresh fruits is probably what you will see in short supply on the shelves quite quickly and a little bit later, many importers and retailers rely on the supply chains. even though some have deployed a tactic of front loading of goods, there is a limit of how much you can stock up as to fend off week long or potentially longer disruption where no goods are moved into the inventories at all. >> so, peter, you say you expect the disruption to last a week or

so. even a one-week shutdown might take four-to-six weeks to recover. does that sound right to you? what's your experience? >> we see the dominos fall in multiple stages now. at first, of course, the immediate affect on the u.s. eastern gulf coast and some de delays, some ships waiting in line will be late on the scheduled departure out of the origin ports where they will ship new goods to the u.s. that means we will see disruption with some ships being late in europe and mediterranean toward the end of october and early november. some ships that come all the way from asia and find their way back to asia for new supplies, we will see them late for their scheduled departure toward the end of december and early january. that's basically where the next normal mini peak in container

shipping happens in the lead-up to chinese lunar new year which falls early this year by the end of january. it is really crunch time with so many things at stake now. you might say it is a perfect storm, but also, a really good negotiating position for those people wanting a strike. >> there's always a silver lining for someone. peter sand, thank you so much for that, saying it is crunch time on a number of levels. peter sand. still coming up on the show, covestro shares spike after adnoc confirms a deal. we'll speak with markus steilemann coming up on cnbc. don't go away. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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xfinity internet customers, ask how to get a free 5g phone and a second unlimited line free for a year. adnoc has made a takeover of covestro at $62 per share. covestro said it supports the offer which it says will create a stronger foundation for sustainable growth. i'm glad to be joined by markus

steilemann. why is this the best deal for shareholders? >> first and foremost, very good morning. i think next to be a good deal for shareholders, i believe we have a great package here negotiated which not only includes share price that you just have mentioned, but also the full support of the strategy and the culture and values of covestro plus, in case we get to the point of closing capital injection in the order of 1.1 billion euro for uninvestments into the future of covestro which would exaccelerate our growth path and accelerate the sustainable future strategy. >> markus, this has been in the deal for over the year and haggling about price and job protections here. what can you tell us here?

>> look, this is to my knowledge, the largest deal that has or is about to happen between strategic investor from the middle east and german dax listed company. this is unprecedented which means we put quality before time. i think that is the exact reason both sides were heavily involved. it has been intensive and very constructive discussions. that is why we have this outcome right now which i think is an excellent overall package. >> obviously, as we have seen with recent discussions about the tieups and foreign buyer swooping into germany into the banking sector, obviously, a lot of opposition from politicians. a lot of national interests at play, especially whether it comes to keeping jobs. why isn't there as much opposition? is that because the jobs are safe or the chemicals industry, which is suffering right now, not of national importance? >> well, first and foremost, this is up to the government to

decide and answer that question, not up to me, because what i can ensure and the board of management can ensure and if we take a close look into the german situation and that's why we also have as part of the package acknowledged that there is agreements in place and those agreements are not only fully acknowledged or fully supported by the bid ader and that makes a complete package despite the overall situation in which the chemical industry from the global perspective and also specifically from the german perspective. again, we have a very clear path forward and very clear strategy and that makes us also and has been proven by this agreement today with the strategic investment, we are attractive for the bidder and at the same time, we are an attractive

blo employer. >> markus, you have been talking about the generman chemicals industry and what it is facing. are you better off weathering those challenges with another company or by yourself? >> i have a second role. that role is not the ceo of covestro. this is the german chemical administration. in that sense, i'm lobbying for germany and lobbying to improve the overall structure of the challenges that germany still has and that will not go away with a new owner. at the same time, where we have the structure challenges in germany, i'm absolutely convinced with the sustainable strategy, covestro is strong in germany and europe as well as globally. that's what makes this investment so attractive also

for an investor like adnoc. long story short, i believe in the future of the company. i think with a strong partner at our side, we can accelerate the sustainable future strategy throughout all overall economic conditions and from that perspective, i'm exhausted and at the same time, excited we have reached that milestone. >> exhausted and chexcited here. we have a new commission in place in the eu, is the green deal more business friendly? >> it has to become more business friendly. currently, it is still the green deal with all of the legislation that has been put in place and it has to seek further legislation to come. at the same time, we as an overall industrial conglomerate

of more than 1,200 companies which have signed the declaration made it very clear that the green deal must become an industrial green deal and that has still to be shown by newly elected european commission. >> final question to you. i want to get a sense how the european chemical industry is doing at this point. obviously, we heard from a number of auto companies the past couple weeks cutting guidance. it is a bleak outlook with china and the u.s. and internal demand coming from europe as well. there are any private spots on the horizon and would that bright spot be china given the latest stimulus? >> well, overall, the global economy is in dire straits, so we have an overall economic challenge currently. at the same time, the chemical industry has proven to be one of the most novel industries

globally. that is the heart of the chemistry. just to put aside we are headquartered in europe, the majority of our business is outside of europe and germany. from that perspective, we are innovating from global trends. from that perspective, i am positive that this strength will play out to create a wonderful future for the chemical industry ahead. >> thank you so much for your time. i appreciate it. markus steilemann. ceo of covestro. a quick check of the european bourses. the dax getting a shot in the arm from the m&a deal we talked about with covestro. up 3%. the cac 40 is under water at

0.2%. european yields look like this. not a lot of change here ahead of the inflation data we get out later on today. the ten-year bund yield sitting at 2.06. obviously, yesterday, we saw the german inflation number falling below 2% roughly, for the first time in three years. quick check of the u.s. treasuries. 3.62 for the short end of the curve. jay powell pushing back at expectations about more jumbo cuts. i guess we will get two more 25 point cuts. u.s. futures look like this. s&p 500 suggesting we could fall 0.2% at the start of the trading session. the dow jones off 0.3%. the nasdaq is seen essentially flat. the s&p hit another record high

yesterday up 0.4%. we have the all important jobs report at the end of the week, obviously. meantime, u.s. vice president candidates jd vance and tim walz will face-off in the only scheduled debate tonight. the debate will follow the same rules that harris and trump held they weeks ago. it comes a month away from the election. i'm sure we will see twitter blowup after this. it should be exciting to watch. that's it for today's show. i'm carolin roth. "w "worldwide exchange" is up next. we'll see you tomorrow. bye-bye.

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they don't give a [ bleep ] about us. we'll show them they have to give a [ bleep ] about us because nothing's going to move would you tell us. >> you are looking at the port of new jersey. 50,000 port workers hit the picket lines this morning in the first strike since 1977 after rejecting the 11th hour offer that would raise wages 50% over