welcome to "power lunch." i am brian sullivan, in for tyler today. i'm joined by kelly evans who hosts every day, so no surprise. some internal moves with your money today. what are they, kelly? >> let's start with nike. it's the biggest drag on the dow after either earnings, revenue was weaker than expected. and it withdrew forward guidance. the new ceo has not taken the helm yet, but has a big cleanup

job ahead of hem. unitedhealth with a medicare problem at one of the big own 13%. there's your hint. oil is interesting skirmish is what's going on with they comments from saudi, what opec is now denying, whether oil is going to see a bearish potential downward to the $50 price level, or as we heard the last hour, say these are pure rumors, maybe we'll start to see the oil price higher. >> did you see the show rundown? that's where we're going to lead the show. i think it's an appropriate place to lead it. you are right. this is like "days of our live" opec version. >> it's always a soap opera. >> all right. so let's start there.

the real story, folks, in oil may not be why prices are up, but why they're not rising even no more given the fears of a retaliation. you also had, to kelly's point, a brief opep plus virtual meeting today. there was no shift in policy. that's not likely to come until the big november 1st meeting, assuming the in-person happens. if that's not enough drama, there was a big "wall street journal" exclusive report that some opec members are trying to whisper that saudi arabia warned them of the $50 price if the group does not hold fast. the gentleman about to be on the screen, and all why natural gas is closing in, in part because there's concern after the safety of the state of hormuz, that all

of the liquefied gas flows out of. we'll get to opec in a minute. i thought we had a scoop, but they put out a press release. bob, let's start with why oil is not lier. is it lack of retaliation? is it because the saudis had a spare capacity? or d, all of the above? >> good to be with you, brian. the market is complacent about geopolitical risks. if you don't see barrels go off-line, like with libya recently, they're tired of the boy that cried wolf. they're hoping we won't see a material disruption. 20% of world gas comes off rasa fan, and then 30%, and 17% of

product loadings come out of that region. they're say, no, boy who cried wolf, i'm not going to worry until i see actual physical damage. >> let's hope it deescalates for everybody's sake, but the other day we watched israel light up a yemeni port and oil import facility. yemen dropped one bomb on israel and tel aviv, and israel just lit up the entire port. if israel were to do something similar with iran, or some kind of oil infrastructure, which i'm sure the white house is strongly deterring them from doing. if they were to do that, bob, then what? >> if israel hits cry cat infrastructure from iran, like oil facilities, the nuclear complex, i believe that would trigger a regional war, put all of the flowing there at risk.

we'll measure the increments in $10 a barrel crew. however, however, we expect not just the biden administration pleading and so forth, they make take it easier on the first retaliatory package. i think it's going to be suppressing air defenses, hitting munitions, command and control, kind of working over iran, preparing the ground if they have to go back in future strikes. i'll be surprised if they throw that big of a round punch. it will be april, but i don't think it will be that big. >> as investors think through this, there's a lot of value to find in the energy stocks. maybe you can tell me that's predicated on higher oil, but not all of it. it seems like some of these names should be attractive. where would you be looking to position in the oil and the natural gas space for the next

couple months? >> i think we're in a once in a generation buy unloved oil and gas assets. the real inflection point will come when the world realizes we're not on a track for peak demand for oil and gas by the end of the decade. between now and then we could have an air pocket. macro is awful. china is awful. if there's discipline required, we could see lower levels, but i think we should position to buy with both hands for a multi-year boom cycle. evs aren't coming fast enough, ice cars are not coming fast enough. when that hits, we'll ought realize we're shot. that's the big play in my view. >> i don't want to call it a squabble, but to kelly's point.

>> benoit, and all the others are good reporters. they had a big call, saudis admonishing, then opec made the unusual step of putting out an unusual press release sort of countering the "wall street journal" story. it's fascinating. we'll ultimately find out where the truth is, but what do you make of this squabble? do you think it's a sign of some people inside of opec maybe leaking things that may other may not be true for some end game of their own? >> i they opep mrs. leadership was pretty offended by that article, the details, $50 a barrel, so forth. you saw the formal rejection today by opec. where there is smoke, there's fire. there is a problem with iraq especially. 3 to 4 thousand barrels a today

above the production quota level. they've been trying cajoling for months. it may not have worked. i heard maybe the meeting went a little better. i think the iraqis of -- all eyes are on october 14th, when opec will report what secondary sources, what they say iraq was. i still think there's a discussion there. i don't think this was as negative as implied by the tone, but yet the jury is out. we'll see on october 14th, about you if iraq is not in compliance, if kazakhstan is still overproducing, i think there will be consequences. >> bob, on that issue, could they turn to the saudis to support the market, lower the price, could they do anything with iraq and kazakhstan to say they're the flies in the ointment, leading to lower output? >> i'm sure there's a standing

request from the biden administration, harris campaign, please don't do mission to raise oil prices. i think the biden administration is trying to free up some barrels, so i think it's fair to say the biden administration is doing everything it can, tolerating overproduces. they want to see the low oil prices we see right now, but the main effort, i believe, is begging israel not to attack oil facilities in iran. >> how many barrels do you think that would take off-line if it happened? >> iran exports about 1.8 million barrels a day, but that's just where we start. if iran's exports were halted -- a senior iranian official said, if we can't export, nobody experts. then you're looking at 13 million barrels a day. that's just crude. i think the market will price in

a much bigger production. it's just more than the 1.8 that would be at stake if israel took that out. all right. bob mcnally, thanks for helping to kick off the hour. the jobs report is just around the corner. how will important will it be for the markets? a quick power check. caesars notes expire on 2022. on the down side is humana, falling on news around the company's reimburse moments.

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shares of tesla are down after delivery numbers that did disappoint some investors, but some analysts are saying the numbers may actually be a positive. let's talk about that and the robo-taxi events scheduled next week. phil, tell us about these numbers. >> we're going to show you the numbers, and you can say the consensus estimate was 463.310, so it's a miss, but when i spoke to most people, they were

expecting that number. the hitchwhisper number, they d their job. they hit the expectations, thanks for strength in china, despite the weakness. can they hit the full-year delivery consensus of 1.78 million vehicles to be delivered? to do that, thule have to delivered about 512,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. keep in mind they were never delivered -- delivered more than a half million in a single quarter. that doesn't mean it can't be done, but they'll have to hit 1.78 million for the year. the page turns to the event of the robo-taxi unveil. the cybercab is the question. do they show us a prototype vehicle, that some are saying could ultimately be an

autonomous taxi of sorts? also, what kind of details will they give us about the launch of autonomous ridesharing with tesla? will it start next year? geofenced areas? are there pricing expectations? that's what will drive the stock before or after the event, i should say. if we get vague promises from elon, which is a possibility, i wouldn't be surprised if the stock sells off. then again, if we get concrete details, people will star gaining out how realistic are these? functions come up a couple weeks later, so we're done with the first of three catalysts here, guys. now the question becomes does robo-taxi deliver in terms of the anticipation that's out there right now, or does it leave people wanting more and not having it yet from elon musk. and shares are unchanged basically on the year ahead of

that next catalyst. phil, thanks. the averages changed after the losses yesterday. this morning we had the better than expected adp report. for more on what this means for the markets, brian jacobson is here. welcome to you. a lot of the economists are saying when you add it all up, the port strike, and so forth, the hurricane effect, that we could see a big the a stagflationary q4. what are your thoughts? >> thanks for having me. when we see everything that's on the horizon. chair powell has almost thrown his arms up in the air. a lot of the data we'll be getting for the fourth quarter is filled with all sorts of distortions. you have the port strike, as you mentioned. we have to see how long the port strike lasts, because they are going to have to worry, does it extend past the survey date, so

maybe it will be revolved before then, but higher oil prices, the port strikes could lead to inflation. you can't see a weakening labor market, the fed is going to ask themselves, will they look through this hand stick to their plan. my guess is powell is probably convinced they do need to really guess at least two more 25 base-point cuts in, so perhaps they're a bit on autopilot. >> but autopilot meaning they continued to cut rates, the economy continues to expand? i'm interested in how you're playing with this markets, financials, by the way, one of best names in the third quarter. why so? >> yeah everybody i think the reason is we are seeing an economy that's slowing, but not necessarily stops. there are, of course, risksout there that could lead to a recession or more dramatic slowdown.

we think the likelihood of those events are fairly low. if we go from really good growth to moderate growth, and are able to stay around here, we think that sets up a pretty good environment for, like, industrials from a valuation perspective, looks pretty attractive. we know manufacturing has effectively been in a recession for, like, 24 months now already. if they get more traction. health care also looks attractive, and as financials, as the fed continues to cut rates, that could get good for funding costs, and take pressure off of the loan books. those are three of the areas here on our committee we're optimistic about for the balance of this years. >> brian, you don't have to give a one side or the other question, but we have an election coming up. does it matter to the market how the election turns out?

i say that, because watching the v spot debate -- which was incredibly civil, and kind of gave you hope, whatever -- it doesn't seem like the two economic policies are that much different. maybe a little adjusting over h here. we also have congress, probably nothing will get down no matter who wins, does the matter care? >> i think the market does care about the outcome, because there is a scenario, if it's a democrat sweep, where you could see a situation where they try to get rid of the filibuster and are able to get this almost wish list of policies that include an increase in corporate tax rates, the top marginal tax rate really for the markets. the bigger companies, they don't effectively pay that highe tax rate anyway, so it's more the smaller caps, so i think it

matters maybe under the hood. regulatory policy use obviously matter as well. that's a low likelihood you would get that democrat sweep. if you get divided government, or some form of rep, if there's a rep sweep, that's likely to be somewhat business as usual. we'll have to reckon with the massive fiscal cliff. that is going to be here on steroids at the end of 2025, unless they work out whether or not the tax cuts and jobs act, those provisions really get extended. oncewe get through the election, the market will then price in the likelihood of that type of fiscal cliff event happens. i haven't heard "fiscal cliff" in a long time. i'm having flash backs. dave tepper the other day said, as long as it's a split, he doesn't have to pay much attention to it.

brian, thanks. we appreciate your time today. >> thank you. on deck, kellie, you know what time it almost is again? >> hmm. >> it's fall, it's earnings season. it's coming up. coming up we'll do some earnings coming up we'll do some earnings season options prep withdo at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. m c-- and the feeling of confide looks like you that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to ameriprise financial.

when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed to help you save money and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare supplement plan you select, you could have no deductibles or copayments for doctor visits, hospital stays, emergency care and more. you can keep the doctors you have

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we are in the green. tech is your big leader. when i say big, up 0.2%. still, it is higher. we're in the green, and i get -- i've never done this before. we're doing what's called a market navigator with dom chu. take it easy on me, it's my first time. >> this will be great. we'll take you through the

mapping and the navigation of the market here. >> hence the name. >> conagra is sinks after reporting disappointing results earlier today. one of our traders thinking this name could have a continued slow burn even lower. here to splay why and how to take advantage is mike khouw, chief strategist over an open interesting pro. it's down on the heels of earnings, you think it has more down side, what's the trade? >> we saw some market expanding for a number of them, but a lot of those margins are coming in again. one of the trades we saw an institutional trader do today was the january 30 puts, which

will capture the next earnings that the company will likely report in the first week of january, selling the decembers to help finance that purchase. one of the things you'll sometimes see is a follow through with real money accounts. those are investors who tend to be slower moving. endocuments, things like that, that it takes time for them to move out of their position. and they had already sold more than 6 million shares just in the second quarter of this year alone. one of the ways i would tweak the institutional trail, i would reduce those strikes a bit, and give some play, selling the december 29s against t. the distinction there is, by doing that trade, you take in a small credit. you can't lose any money to the up side. you would actually make money if

it drifts lower, and it would have to go well below that lower strike for the losses, but that would represent another 8% decline. this decline we saw -- the average earnings moving is only 4%, and we with see it's down significantly. >> mike, a follow-up question. why use the calendar spread type of event. what does it do to take those particular put options and stagger them. what's the thinking there the biggest thing that moves stocks, has to report earnings four times a year. that's when you start seeing big moves. if you're going to sell premium to advance, it's better to do it when you have expirations that don't capture earnings. earnings have come and gone, the news was bad, obviously. those december options you would

be selling, the only big catalyst between now and then is really the election. but those locker dated options, will capture the subsequent earnings. >> mike khouw, we'll see if that trade works out in the next couple months. bright been, therein some real relative winners that count, the wall martz and costcos of the world. the packaged foods side has been hit or miss, so there there's more volatility, it's a sector we'll watch. >> you have the hormels on one side -- and their namesake chili. >> which probably got a lot of us through college. can you quickly explain -- i'm not an options guy.

>> so the reason why he's using two different options, right, they both take advantage of the down side one of them is worth more than the other. you're trying to make a trade there to capture some of the relative value on one to offset the cost of buying another. the change in value, the time decay is a bit different. >> thank you. that's one to grow on. >> the more you know. after the break, we'll keep the trade parade going. nike signaling a weaker holiday. humana seeking lower reimbursements, and a trader's reimbursements, and a trader's take in the type a cpa.

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stocks, and then the trading advice. anthony borcinnoni is here. welcome. let's start with nike. retail reporter gabrielle ph fonrouge has more. >> what's going on here is last needing, they reported the first set of earnings since announcing jon done ahow would be stepping down. they announced the first investor day in seven years, originally scheduled for november, tock postponed. revenue came in softer than expected. that's partially because it has a lot of work to do. over the last couple years t, and dinks, at first they were flying off the shelves, and

they're shopping with competitors. it's going to take time for things to turn around, and they're expecting to fall against this quarter. anthony, what do you do with nike at this point? we continue to hold it and buy into our weakness. at the end of the day, there was nothing surprising with what they reported on. they need time for the new ceo to take while they offered a somewhat softer outlook, it was offset by some groan shoots, which in a turnaround is very welcoming.

to my viewpoint, this is still attractive as a turnaround. >> thank you very much. we're going to call this oh the humana-ity. bertha coombs has more. >> humana revealed the government had the quality rating. on one of is biggest medicare advantage plans. the star raiding was cut a full point, to 3.5 stars. humana says it narrowly missed the higher rating on just small measures, but that cut means it will not get a 5% bonus payment from the government. so that really messes with the top line. centers for medicare and medicaid has been racing the

bars for consumers to get those star ratings. for in the advantage plan market, lower stars could drive marketers to competitors which makes for lower growth. humana is appealing the rating, but they may nod get a decision in their favor. >> anthony, do you have a trade on humana? >> this is today's news revealed a nuance in medicare advantage and the cut can be quite significant. you may let this sell on strength as we learn more, but i

certainly woop wouldn't guy. anjelica peoples is here with the weight-loss story. >> not a bad guess. we are here in we've seeing every they're doing to invest this obesity and beyond, saying it would open a new $4.5 billion facilities focused on r&d manufacturing. the company is also looking at other areas, like brain diseases. take a listen to what the ceo had to say. >> well, we're working hard in parkinson's, a initiative frontal temporal initiative. the nerve degenerative conditions, which is obvious

caused by a few misfolded proteins, we're beginning to untie that not. >> reporter: lilly has a rich history in neuroo they also had the antidepressant prozac so famous and such a big part of its history. of course, we're going to be talking about obesity in the years to come. >> anthony, final word on eli lilly? buy it sell it? own it? take out options? >> all of the above. you own it here, i call itted nvidia the healthcare sector. and certainly a poster child for class 1 stocks.

and they're just increasing capacity and innovation. the only sure is valuation reflects a lot of that at 40 times plus earnings, so what we advise the clients is continue to own it, but think about managing the position size given how much it's moved up and what it represents in the portfolio. >> i take your point. any quick final comment? >> i think we're seeing it every day with the election, and we're probably going to have elevated volatility into the election. you know, what's happening on the shoremen strike is a factor and possibly a political issue. >> anthony, thank for your time today. we appreciate it. >> thank you. let's get over to julia boo boorstin. president biden told

reporters this afternoon he would not support a strike on iranian nuclear sites in retaliation to the ballistic missile attack yesterday on israel. they agreed during a conference call today that israel has a right to respond, but it needs to be done proportionally, and warned new sanctions would be coming against iran. the u.s. organized flight to istanbul. it carried about 100 americans and their family members. carriers around the world have canceled flights to israel and lebanon in response to the security situation in the middle east. hamas claimed responsibility for a shooting attack in tel aviv yet that killed seven people. two gunmen boarded a lightrail train and opened fire on passengers. it came around the time of the

iranian missile attack. julia, thank you very much. coming up, trading the port stri. ulsulyhakecod pp cnge challenges actually be good news to one big group of stocks. could be. and we have6@ you need p■now, n. (man) look at this silly little sailboat... these men of means with their silver spoons,

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welcome back. as we continue to monitor the port strike, diana olick has a fascinating look at a sector that could see above from the fallout. >> a brief bump. we're talking warehouse. this is a short-term play. if it all changes if the strike goes long term, but warehouses will see more demand and more pricing power, as tenants needs workarounds, according to a new report from piper sandler. lineage manages food inventory. you may remember cold storage demand rise during the first years of pandemic. >> and then terreno raised

prices during the first years of covid for container storage, and then pulled back a bit, but now they could go back up again. i spoke with prolodgis. they said they are providing some parking areas. they will continue adjusting operations, depending on how the situation evolves. this, again, is all if the strike is short term. if there's a complete port shutdown, then really everyone loses, because there's no goods coming in and out of warehouses anymore, and that will hit hard. >> you said it's going to be brief or short term. it may not be. >> that's what i'm saying. this is a short-term play. >> no ships in port in newark the day i drove by.

all those goods gotta go somewhere. >> and they're moving them around, trying to keep things where are in the short term. but, again, if this goes long term, you longer have no movement in and out of the ports. then everyone will lose. for now. >> the only benefit, i wonder if this the fact that in thistory levels are at high, that many people front loaded, knowing this could happen, you wonder if that smooths out the effect. >> it could in part, but remember, there's not been a lot of warehouse construction. you have a lot of high occupancy rate, so it's the short-term pricing power we're talking about. diana, we appreciate your

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welcome back. markets have gone from slight declines to slight gains this hour. the dow's up 59 points. so that's nearing session highs we saw a little bit before noon eastern. the s&p is up a point. the nasdaq is up 28. the let's check in on the price of oil which has been rip sawed by rumors and by geopolitical developments. today has been quieter on that front. the saudis are looking for the prices of crude to go up.

stocks making new all-time highs, aflac is amongst them. raytheon amongst them. vistra corp is there as well. that's the top performer even outpacing nvidia, vistra has more than tripled. you can always hear us on our podcast. make sure to follow and listen to ""power lunch."" bcm sure the show and others on bcm sure the show and others on cn at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, we'll be right back. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed

to help you save money and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare supplement plan you select, you could have no deductibles or copayments for doctor visits, hospital stays, emergency care and more. you can keep the doctors you have now, ones you know and trust, with no referrals needed. plus, you can get medical care anywhere in the country, even when you're traveling! with humana, you get a competitive monthly premium, and personalized service, from a healthcare partner working to make healthcare simpler and easier for you. you can choose from a wide range of standardized plans. each one is designed to work seamlessly with medicare and help save you money! so how do you find the plan that's right for you. one that fits your needs and your budget? call humana now at the number on your screen for this free guide. it's just one of the ways that humana is making healthcare simpler. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan

that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you know medicare won't cover all your medical costs. so, call now and see why a medicare supplement plan from a company like humana just might be the answer. discovering innovation today, helps drive growth tomorrow. as a leading global asset manager, pgim has established a track record of helping investors capitalize on growth opportunities. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow, today. the clock says we have four minutes left in the show and we're not done. i'm going to shut up and get to it. open ai closing a funding round of $6.6 billion. microsoft and nvidia the biggest investors. values the company at $157 billion.

>> i appreciate that but to me the more important and perhaps relevant metric is how much they're losing. this is a company making less than 4 billion in revenue, losing 5 billion this year reportedly. they have to pay for really expensive chips. the way they want to play the opt theopenai funding round is this way are. >> two questions need to be addressed, where are they getting current information from? what are they paying to license that content going forward? now that they're a for profit. they're out with a research model. how is ai empowering? deidre has done great reporting on this. the we're looking at the ipo pipeline. >> well, maybe tomorrow we'll find out. don't miss an exclusive interview with openai's new cfo,

sarah friar. >> they need some stabilization. didn't stop the funding round. speaking of nvidia, they're expanding their partnership with accenture. they will offer a refinery service for general tools. this comes as accenture said it drove $3 billion in bookings in the latest fiscal year. they have gotten a boom out of this so farr, brian. they'll continue to do this. accenture shares peaked and year to date have not done much. >> got a friend that used to work there. certainly the ceo putting her mark on the company for good or ill. we'll find out long term. if you are a thought and knowledge-based worker, i know you're told not to fear ai. don't worry, it's going to help you do your job better. or it's going to do your job for you. ai doesn't take sick days. doesn't take vacation. doesn't complain. >> i'm leaning out on the ai

taking over anything narrative. >> me, too. >> if you don't start to see major companies -- at the margin maybe they're doing productivity enhancements. real gains starting to see co-pilot, adoption, in it will we see that i think the stocks will struggle. >> once they do productivity enhancements, then you're going to pro duct yourself out of a job. >> jensen huang and jewel lee sweet will be on. >> china, wow, stocks red hot. they're throwing everything. the hang seng is up 25% the past couple of months. >> wow. >> kelly, 30 seconds. what do we make of this monster run in china? >> it depends who you ask. if you ask david tepper, a lot. if you ask stan druckendruckenm you don't make much. >> that bet he talked about on "squawk box," if he could get his carolina panthers to perform

like the hang seng zsh. >> he came on after they won. >> won singular, one. >> the trade move he made on this alone has -- is all the buzz. >> what has two thumbs and will be back with you tomorrow? >> you. thanks for joining us today. it's been fun. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." thank you. i'm scott wapner live from post 9 from the new york stock exchange. what matters most to the markets. earnings be, elections, geopolitical uncertainty or t the -- it's tough to get stuff going. maybe we're looking ahead to the jobs report. we are lower there. we're headline driven. we have the jobs report in mind. a couple of days, probably some hesitation to place large bets either way. notable names today? well, they include nike down sharpl