like the hang seng zsh. >> he came on after they won. >> won singular, one. >> the trade move he made on this alone has -- is all the buzz. >> what has two thumbs and will be back with you tomorrow? >> you. thanks for joining us today. it's been fun. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." thank you. i'm scott wapner live from post 9 from the new york stock exchange. what matters most to the markets. earnings be, elections, geopolitical uncertainty or t the -- it's tough to get stuff going. maybe we're looking ahead to the jobs report. we are lower there. we're headline driven. we have the jobs report in mind. a couple of days, probably some hesitation to place large bets either way. notable names today? well, they include nike down

sharply after pulling guidance. you know the ceo change they are in the midst of too. it is humana's lowest days. cut its losses in half. still a rough day. ta takes us to the talk of the take. let's ask adam parker. welcome back. >> thanks for having me. >> the thing that jumped out at me most of all are the fact we were more cautious on risk taking last week than we are now. why? >> that's consistent from what you heard from tepper in the previous minute. i think the stimulus means something. we look back at china stimulating 11 times in the last 13 years. when you look at the market, there's a group of stocks that have somewhat low expectations, kind of hated and they trade

like the a shares. a lot of them are in energy materials, industrials, et cetera. if you are a portfolio manager, you reacted to the news on the 24th you said? all right. maybe buy a casino, i could buy a copper company. maybe what they did yet isn't enough to make the earnings change, but the risk/reward got skewed to the positive. >> do you think that the risk/reward is now better overall here in part because of this? it just underscores the fact that central banks, governments around the world are flooding the zone, flooding the zone with liquidity again? >> when i thought it was rates alone, not sure as we talked about. when it's going to be fiscal stimulus and cutting rates? now you're building, you know, more of a story. at the beginning of the year, i went back to my outlook in january. what did it say? i'm bullish but i'll get negative if the consumer slows,

china gets worse or financial conditions tighten. in july, i'm 50-50. i'm not as bullish. >> you've been more cautious. >> the consumer is slowing. but now you say, okay, well, china's not getting worse, maybe it's getting better. the very recent data points, it's not declining at a more rapid rate. depending on your interpretation of jobs on friday, i think it's a big number. there's stuff coming. >> it just reminds us that almost every single moment over the past 18 months where people have said if this happens, this could happen, that could happen, it hasn't happened. >> yeah. >> market's been crazy resilient. one of the most resilient markets i think we've ever seen. >> yeah. >> and others point to a lot of noise distilled down into the facts of a fed that's cutting and just starting and the economy that is still surprising people with its resilience. >> look, the 2 and 10 year yield

are 100 bips lower. the fed, i think, surprised -- nobody thought there was 50 bips on july 1. the market had a healthy 5, 6% health y return on the s&p in te quarter. i'm a little bit worried about earnings season. not so much the q3 numbers because we didn't hear any of the conferences. we've had nike, fedex, things th. fed ex, they're a company, 90 billion in revenue, ship some stuff around. we'll see if we get any prenegs. october, january, february, i don't think it's going to happen that much. i think it's going to be more the q4 guidance. that's where i see the numbers hoblgy stick more. >> let me bring this point up

that the). >> only so far for megacap tech opens the up side math there that were harder to envision. we've had a broadening. the expectations have maybe dropped a touch so that helps the overall scene as you really get into the thick of the earnings season. does that make sense for you? >> do you still feel like the bar is as high as it ever was

for megacap? >> all they said was the sum of the big 6 weren't as good in q3. >> a lot of other stuff was. >> the ones people hated on july 1, apple and tesla, they were the best ones. >> they were the worst. >> the equal weight in the quarter was up 8% which was up 5. >> isn't that what you want? isn't that what you wanted? is. >> i guess, yeah. >> what do you mean you guess? we need the broadening. >> you need the broadening if the economy is improving, margins are expanding. you have a weird quarter. value beat growth but hyper growth beat growth. everyone says i beat quality. it's a weird micro structure. what happened was apple and tesla were good and microsoft and nvidia were flat. >> pal lantire was good. >> it's generally good if the

economy pauses and starts improving. >> i asked, why? what i heard back was, i don't know. right? so i'm not -- i'm really foe ques -- focused on the consumer data. it hasn't gotten worse. some of the consumer data points i look at in the last ten days make me think the consumer that was declining in june and july isn't declining. i have a china stimulus. i'm skewed to the positive. >> you wanted to short some of these consumer names. >> i still don't like physical retailers. i'm always going to like walmart, amazon over target. >> you still think you should be buying the dips. would you urge people to buy the dips as oppenheimer is doing today and barclays suggest the path of least resistance is to the up side. rate cuts, china, you put it all together, you can make a

good story to tell. >> yeah. look, depends on the horizon. if it's like for sure between now and the election, it's hard to make more calls. if i were a ceo, would i make a big capital deployment announcement before the election? maybe not. i may want a better view before what i think the regime looks like. what my spending benefits could be. we could get some choppy guides for companies for q4. we could get a little uncertainty in october. if i'm looking out 6, 12 months, yeah, there's a lot of things to sink my teeth into. >> let's bring in wealth enhancement group. what do you think about what adam had to say? does it match your own view of where the markets currently are? >> sure. hi, scott. great to see you. you know what adam said resonates quite a bit with us in terms of what we're seeing in the markets. you know, in the short term, sure. could we see more volatility? we've seen it around the labor

market data releases over the last couple of months and so could we get that again on friday? maybe. as adam mentioned, there is a lot of geopolitical risks and earnings coming up, but over the long term we think as dips have been bought in the past, we think these dips will be bought in the future. >> jack, what about you? >> i would say i actually am less reliant on the story of the u.s. economy speeding up and more reliant on some of the other macro data out there. if the economy grew, what, 4, 4.5% analyzed in had the back half of last year and the only game in town was the mag 7, acceleration in growth is not necessarily what's going to push them over the line or the s&p 493 over the line. in that environment, high rates, these are bigger hurdles and when we look at what's going on

on macro data, the wage growth is cool. we'll see plenty of that on friday. inflation has come off the boil and rates are moving lower. that to me is the trifecta where you don't have to be the mag 7 to make money anymore. that to me is a broadening out story. we're expecting to see it particularly in the fourth quarter. i like it, let's call it equal weight versus market cap. >> what do you think? >> i mean, yeah. the evidence is that if cpi comes down it helps the margins of the smaller companies more than the big 7s. the same way the big 7 did great when it was rising, it didn't affect them. they're sort of more immune. so through my u.s. only lens i would say what he just said, he thinks gross margins are going up for most companies over the next couple of quarters. >> that's the biggest thing you've said for the better part of the last two years. >> it's the number one thing i'm focused on. >> margins, margins, margins.

that's why you're as bullish. >> yes. >> you thought the margin story was going to hold up. >> yup. >> you questioned it and now there are suggestions, jack makes the case. >> i think that's right. i think the risks, the real bull case if you look out 5, 6, 7 years the market is way higher, 10,000, whautever it is more, they can do a lot of revenue growth not a lot of net hiring. they're not going to add heads at the rate they used to. that's the way markets can have another leg up. that will come from more ai productivity stories we'll hear in the next 18 months. probably won't hear a ton of them in october. then i'm thinking out medium, long term, sure. you have to believe that's pretty good risk/reward. >> china news, jack, i mean, is% it as game changing as some have made the case, including adam, david tepper, some others? the market certainly making that bet as those stocks have surged

in the last week. >> i think adam made a great point, china's not getting any worse than where we are given this monetary stimulus and fiscal stimulus. we have had a couple of instances, exciting economic news, translates and it starts to deteriorate and you go back down to weakened confident from consumer and business perspective. the issue with china, a, the valuation tale, super strong is no longer as compelling before a lot of this policy was announced and, b, at the end of the day you are still dealing with a demand economy. china is something of a black box. policy makers have made it clear they can flip a switch and turn off entire components of the equity market. it's not to say you can't get excited, i think a lot of american investors need to be cautious. >> yeah. what i've experienced through the years is it's very hard to

get financial advisers to go over weight e.m. equities. they have to outperform by 30% a year in the u.s. before they pile in. i think it's more what can i do focused on the u.s. to get china exposure. do i buy three-quarter -- >> wait? >> do i do that? we do this nerdy thing, how can we proxy the big tech companies in china through u.s. equities? it was a combination of e.s. ss -- u.s. semis and utilities. there are ways to get at it in the u.s. equities if you are too afraid to go at it directly. >> what about this china story, aya? is it a great opportunity for people who -- i don't know, maybe they feel like they're over exposed to the megacap tech stocks so they're looking at the

babas, aioudous, they think it's the beginning. >> chasing after stocks that have surged this quickly is not a great deal, at least in the short term. the valuations were much more attractive like they said about 20% ago. and so -- but, you know, over the long term i think having the exposure makes sense, especially in a diversified etf is how we would look at it. >> how about this, jack? ubs had an interesting note about valuations. we debate this a lot on the desk, whether the market is too expensive or not. they suggest valuations are likely to move higher. at 21.5 times market p/es are 1 1/2 standard deviations above long-term averages. however, the median company is less extremely priced. you can't look necessarily at the overall market multiple and say, well, the market's

expensive if it's been driven by seven stocks to get you to the more expensive historical pe multiple that you're complaining about. >> i would completely agree with that assessment. i think you can come at it two different ways. markets are expensive right now because of a small handful of names, and if you strip out the mag 7 and left with the s&p 493, valuations are a lot more reasonable, a lot closer to earth. you can make the argument closer, more structural, the composition has fundamentally shifted. this is not a bank and oil company equity driven market. it is technology driven. you don't buy them for 10 months of earnings, you buy them for 5, 6, 7 months. maybe not as relevant. also, by the way, while interest rates have been the highest they've been in about 20 years as of late, they're coming back down to earth pretty quickly, right? we're dealing with a fundamentally different

environment. when the composition has changed, from a micro perspective, it's been driven by a handful of names talking about the s&p 500 monolithically and focusing on the stretch valuations, it only gets you a little bit of the way there. >> totally. the reason we've focused on gross margins a lot as we've talked about for years, there's a very strong relationship between what you pay, forecasted sales, and the gross margin level. the reason the market trades and oscillates as it did when it was oil and banks, the gross margin dollars are way higher than they used to be. yeah, if i get my margins higher, i'll get an even non-linear lead, higher multiple. we'll trade at higher multiple in the future and the past. the only thing i would slightly disagree with. i like running to the party so when stuff is up 6 or 8, i'm going to go in there and try to add. i don't think a -- >> you're too late. >> talking about momentum.

>> that's what he's talking about. >> yeah. >> is momentum which you suggest is maybe a deterrence. >> maybe she means the index level. from a stock level, malcolm went up 20%, it could go another 20. like the garbage ma could you play with bounce. i'm dreaming that i want to sell it to someone with a bigger dream later. >> aya? >> sure. in certain stocks and it's lower at the index level, you have to kind of dig into it more than just take the price option at its surface. we like to dig in and see where we're seeing the momentum and whether or not it's long term. it just needs to fit with your sort of time horizon. >> you know, we go back to the megacaps for a moment and the news of the day. $6.6 billion. openai raises 167 billion,

extraordinary, for what feels like a new company. >> bigger than citigroup. >> doesn't that remind us where the puck is going? still, the puck is going towards the hyper scalers who are, in large part, the investors here, who are the ones who are best able to capitalize on this revolution of ai. what do we make of this? >> they certainly have the balance sheets to take this stuff on, but as of right now, i mean, i'm usually a glass half full kind of guy, but this is where i feel a little bit more skeptical. show me the money. we've been throwing so much money hand over fist at this situation and a lot of this ai play hasn't really translated into meaningful sustainable profitability. is artificial intelligence solving any trillion dollar questions at the moment? that is a question we need to ask ourselves. i'd also remind investors that when you are in tech cycles like the ones we -- like the one we might be in right now, the

composition of the winners in the early days fundamentally different than the composition of the winners later on when the technology is much more mature. the people that built the pipelines 40 years ago are still around but not as big as the social media giants that took advantage of that technology. what is the next big ai company? it might not even be cooked up yet. i think it's all about a long-term prime horizon and willingness to cast a long net. not just mag 7. >> i'm more bullish than that on ai. i think there are some examples where efficiencies are being gained. nvidia's revenue is probably the best way i can think about it. you know, and when i read that, you know, musk is having dinner with jensen begging for chips, i don't think it's close to being done a couple weeks ago, so i

think compute generally is going to grow generally way above gdp. i think it's a clear winner. the area i'm most excited about seeing productivity in the next 18 months is in health care, an area that people don't love generally. i'm not saying -- >> not trying to get more bullish? >> i am trying to. >> the cover of barrons, i think it was their magical moment. they said it was a magical moment in health care. something of that regard. >> it might have been ruckers. then you go to humana punching you in the face when you get excited too much about health care services. it's a longer path. i think when i look at it, where can i be much more efficient distribution of drugs? services. hospitals. life sciences and tools. like there's so many examples where efficiencies can be gained. i think we'll see the beneficiaries there first. i bet you we'll see them in 2025. >> leave it there. i enjoyed that conversation.

aya, we'll see you and jack. let's send it to steve coukovac. disappointing q1 results from conagra. declines in refrigerated and manufacturing disruptions. caesar's entertainment is the top performer after it announced a $1 billion notes offering. there is a stock buyback program up to $500 million. shares still off by almost 9% this year and down 65% from the all time high. >> steve kovach, thank you. openai closing the long awaited funding round. we have the details and what it might mean for the database. might mean for the database. you're watchin

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. welcome back. openai closing the latest funding round. kate rooney has the numbers. >> this is a big number for openai. the company officially closing one of the largest funding rounds in silicon valley. total coming in at 6.6 billion. this was at $157 billion post money valuation. i'm told by a source it was led by thrive. we had softbanc and mgx, arc invest was involved. the cash is going to help them with ai research and compute capacity and build tools that help people solve hard problems. openai is the maker of chatgpt which we did now learn has 250 million weekly users. that is more than double from a year ago and it's up by about 50 million in the past two months.

this is one of the most valuable private american companies. just behind spacex, ahead of stripe. to put the value into some context, scott, looking at the market cap of s&p 500 companies, it's bigger on paper than goldman sachs, uber, lockheed martin. about double the value of chipotle, openai is. still in the process of becoming a for profit. we are going to talk about this more tomorrow with openai's cfo sarah friar. >> kate, we know about the recent move to be a for profit company. you mentioned companies like stripe. when are we going to start thinking about an ipo do you think? i'm sure it's got to be the topic of conversation out where you are almost every day. >> big time. that is a question around

stripe. it's a perennial example. i don't think there's a lot of question from investors to go public. the big reason, employees are at least able to get some liquidity. employees at least being able to sell their shares. as long as they can keep their employees happy and make sure they get liquidity, they're able to sell their shares when they want to go ahead and buy a house and have a little bit of cash on the sideline, then there really is not as much pressure as you might think. i think at this point it's seen as not a near term thing they're going public. the hiring of someone like sarah friar, they take being a public company as something serious to look at. her hiring was seen as sort of a sign that this will be an eventual ipo. i think that is the expectation, but they're losing money at this point from what i'm told. they've got a lot of growth and competition before they think about an ipo. >> i'm sure you'll ask sarah. >> big time. >> yeah.

>> we look forward to that interview and great timing to get that. kate rooney. it's tomorrow, i think at 10:15 for sarah friar. >> yes. >> let's bring in doug clinton to discuss. i said before, you know, to our markets panel, if nothing else, this just reminds you where the puck's going, where the flood of capital continues to go, whether it's in the private market or public market where they want to capitalize on the incredible revolution. >> valuations are forward looking, scott. you see the $150 billion. we talk about uber as a comp, double chipotle which openai should be double chipotle. that's what investors are betting on. today we have a company with a $4 billion analyzed run rate. next year i've heard rumors they could hit 10. trading 15 times that run rate feels expensive today if you do the math. looking out tomorrow, if that's

the future, it won't look so bad. >> will you be lining up to get something on the ipo? >> we did invest in deep water and xai. we didn't participate in this round. doesn't mean we won't in the future. >> how are you thinking about tech? we've said in this quarter which just ended, it took a bit of a back seat in the market. some say that's a great sign. better late than never. what about the sector here? we talk about earnings in a few weeks. >> we still feel bullish about tech and our view hasn't changed at all. we've been talking about a 2 to 4-year window where we think ai will continue the full run. i've used the word bubble in the past to describe what i think the ultimate outcome is. it's hard to see a scenario where ai is as profound as we all think it is, that it doesn't end in in bubble. typically every breakthrough technology does. you need the excess capital to ensure all of the access is cheap.

all of the bad ideas that might turn out to be good ones get tried. that's what we're seeing right now. >> that means some eggs in the carton get broken. it doesn't mean the whole thing gets destroyed, correct? >> that's right. i think the carton gets dropped and even some of the good eggs maybe roll around on the floor for a while, but you need to go as an investor who is paying attention to this, close attention, and say which are the ones that ultimately should have long-term value. private marked investors -- >> the names you continue to bet on most of all are meta and nvidia, is that right? >> that's right. >> why have you sort of pushed the others to the side and focused more heavily on those? >> we do have -- >> nvidia is rather obvious. if you want to say, let's say, meta over alphabet over some of the others. >> sure. we also do own some alphabet. the way we think about it, nvidia, meta, alphabet as the big three within megacap tech. they control their own destiny in ai. meta and google are building their own models.

they can self--fund. they don't need to raise $6 billion. they can make that in a month. those companies i think are in a unique position as we think about the future of ai. they control where they go. nvidia is the arms supplier there. pdd and tencent, you're in? how are you thinking about these stocks which have just ripped over the last week? too much? time to get off the boat? what do you think? >> what's really interesting about the new etf we've launched that holds the chinese equities is powered by ai. we've built intelligent alpha where our first product is deliver more etf, tick jer is livr. we use an ai powered committee which consists of gpt, claude and gemini to go and pick these stocks. one of the themes when we launched that the ai committee loved was china.

timing is lucky, right? we couldn't have predicted a week later the chinese bank would be cutting rates as aggressively as they did. ai solved that. as we were talking about in the prior panel, china felt like it was in the tank. it was probably as cheap as it could get. ai made that bet and it is paying off now. >> do you feel like that is a game changer and the way we should view the overall market. >> i think it's hard to ignore. >> it's good having you back. >> likewise. >> doug, thank you. >> don't miss nvidia c ceo jensen huang. definitely don't want to miss p)

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still on edge a bit as investors looked at the middle east. joining me is lauren goodman. welcome back. >> thanks for having me. >> how are you feeling about the markets as this quarter begins? >> i anticipate on a six-month basis they have room to run.

it's a constructive risk asset scenario. that said, the economy is walking a tight rope. not teetering on a recession but a real balance between overheating and the market being concerned about growth. and so in that environment, though i expect risk asset performance to be average, that might not feel as good for investors as the last couple of years. we're looking at portfolio construction really closely to try and take advantage on big picture themes like for example the fed moving lower interest rates. >> feels like tight rope sounds a little extreme. connotation being that one wrong step and you fall over, where feels like the road is a little bit smoother than many people thought it would be. sure there are potholes in front of us, but this has been really resilient and we've been able to steer around most anything that's been thrown our way. how would you respond to that? >> i think that's fair from an economic perspective. we were quite concerned about

the economy in the first half of this year moving much more constructive and specifically the resilience in profit margins. so the balance beam is less about teetering off into an abyss and more about how does the market absorb the reasonable economic data that we have. so, for example, a weaker than expected jobs report, that's likely to be a concern for growth, potentially volatility and risk assets. a smidge of data in the opposite directions. that's a challenging environment. that's a tight rope that i see for risk asset. >> what if we say net net? you've been using the word distill a lot lately, i have, because there's a lot out there, but some would distill it all down and say fed's cutting. economy's still good. that's really at the end of the day, those are the two most

important things that matter more than anything else. we get that good news is good news. bad news is bad news. a bad jobs report would obviously be concerning, but net net cutting still strong. that's what matters. >> i tend to agree with that. so if the economy is still strong, resilient, let's say, and the fed's cutting, what do you do? the number one concern for investors becomes reinvestment risk. >> don't you buy equities? >> i think that you -- i think that you buy risk assets but i strongly prefer credit. and the reason is not that i think equities are going to do poorly in this environment but that the up side relative to credit is limited. that's because both assets have really performed quite well on a price or valuation level. and so the question for investors becomes how can you generate income and manage what might be, again, sort of a middling, still reasonable but middling risk asset over the next couple of quarters.

so that's why from our pee credit is such an interesting opportunity and where equity is concerned, rate cuts really are still a big part of that story. when some of the structural themes that we thought are really interesting around the semiconductor, around energy, sectors that tend to do well when rates are moving lower, so it's a co-mingled story between debt and equity. >> there are plenty of people, by the way, who agree with you. i think rick rieder saturday in that chair and said, look, a lot is in the equity market already. there's a lot of good news priced in. valuations are rich. the better risk reward right now is in credit. i know he's a credit guy. mixed income at blackrock, the world's largest asset manager. he is an asset allocation team. the point is the same, that a lot is in the stock market and

the better risk reward is in credit. you agree? >> i do agree. now for investors looking for equity market ideas, there's a couple of ideas that i think are interesting to play. i just mentioned that some of the secular themes around semiconductors, around energy, those are the sectors that tend to benefit as well from the cyclical reality that's cutting rates. those are high conviction opportunities from my perspective. they also are likely to be relatively supported regardless of what happens in november. i see a lot of investors waiting until november to make big allocations. >> you feel like this market's kind of been a little choppy, it hasn't been a tremendous amount of activity. do you think this is a precursor for what we should expect now up until for the next 30 plus days, 40 days? >> i think that's the case. when it comes to what difference will the election make, a couple of things. first, i think if we have a sweep in either direction, that's a plus one for growth inflation and potentially for rates. i do expect that the market is

going to have to adjust over time this rate cutting expectation down a little bit, meaning the fed will have to cut a little less than the market thinks. that will be accelerated by a sweep scenario. the other thing we're looking at, the president. whoever is in charge has the right to levy tariffs. that's another potential inflationary risk. we're looking at that. sectors are something we actually think some of the old sector norms around republicans versusdemocrats not likely to apply this time around. both candidates have moved differently from the past as much as they're different from each other. >> all right. well said. we'll see you again soon. that's lauren goodwin, right here at post 9. steve kovach is back with the highlights. >> i'm not going to hog too much of your air time. would he have transportation names moving in opposite directions and i'll reveal them

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we're less than 15 from the bell. let's get back to steve kovach. >> let's start with hog. harley-davidson shares on a downgrade from neutral. the analysts say they're sitting out the ride. shares are roughly flat year to

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up next, tesla shares inside the market zone next.joj

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help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley market zone. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. angelica peebles on how eli lilly is holding in the world of glp 1s. phil lebeau will have the

reaction for us. mike, what's on your mind? >> still a bull market. looks like it and acts like it in every significant respect. it really has slowed down. it's come across this leadership shift. been absorbing the retreat on a relative basis in megacap tech. we're up since mid july 2 1/2 months. less than 1% in the s&p 500. the average stock has done better. all of that is context as the bull market gets ready to enter the third year. more of a sober plotting type of a tone to a bull market. everything else is clicking together. i think the fact that it can wea wait and see near the highs is not a negative. >> time flies. it's hard to believe -- >> two years. >> -- it's been two years for this bull market. >> in a couple of weeks. >> see what happens on friday with the jobs report where this next step goes, i suppose. angelica peebles following eli lilly for us today. what can you tell us? >> reporter: yeah, scott.

today lilly is announcing a $4.5 billion center on r&d manufacturing. it will be 40 minutes from where we are from their headquarters in indianapolis. this is all part of the company's investment after the success of its obesity drugs. the company has committed more than $20 billion to capital investments in the u.s. since 2020. obesity is the big focus, but there's a lot more that lily is working on. take a listen to what dave ricks has to say. >> assuming obesity is not our main aim. we are a human health company. neuroscience we mentioned earlier. neuropsych is a huge unmet need and neurodegenerative. we're investing heavily there. perhaps the gains we've made in obesity can help fund the research in new areas. >> reporter: so as you heard there, scott, there is a lot that we should be watching out for from lilly.

we'll be looking at that especially as the company gets close to potentially becoming the first trillion dollar health care company. back to you. >> thank you, angel ly ly -- angelica peters. phil lebeau. sell the news. >> i would agree with that. they were in line with estimates. some people are saying they are 500 short of the street account consensus. give me a break. 463,000 vehicles essentially what they delivered. roughly in line with expectations. best quarter since the fourth quarter of last year. china was strong. incentives also help in certain markets while europe is slower. they don't report by region but that's what you get when you look at the sales in those markets of electric vehicles. sets up the question, what are the catalysts for tesla shares over the next couple of weeks. the big one is the robo taxi

unveil. q3 financials and if ev demand starts to improve, that will also help out tesla. it also raises the question, could they possibly hit more than half a million vehicles delivered in the quarter? they're going to need to do that if they are going to hit last year's total of 1.8 million vehicles delivered. consensus estimate is for 1.78 million vehicles delivered. they'd have to come up with 485,000 deliveries to hit that number. scott, back to you. >> good context, phil. back to you. thank you. that's our phil lebeau. mike, i turn back to you. discretionary asa sector is up a little less than 6%. tesla is a reason why. stock is up 16%. >> yes. >> amazon gets credit for that. >> tesla is up 40% since the early august low. it had this huge rip. obviously at some point it's sell the news. think of all the things phil

said. it's going to be nip and tuck if they match the volumes. they come in and maybe short of the whisper and some of the street estimates. when people who care about the here and now fundamentals of the business sell to people who say robo taxi event is going to be an eye opener, restoring the magic of tesla as a forward-looking thing, you know, one of the price targets from the sell side, 280 bucks a share. 250 right now. how do you get there? it said 15 times 2026 calendar cash talk. okay, fine. 15 times, two years out, cash? that's -- the point is, there's a lot of stress on any fundamental valuations. so if it comes in on target. so, yes, it has been a big tailwind to the consumer discretionary. i am looking at things like home related, spending. home depot and lowe's charts looking better. to me the equal weighted consumer cyclicals are happening

in there and not necessarily giving you a fresh reason to worry at overall spending levels. >> good stuff. see you tomorrow. that's mike santoli. dow is going out with a win. fight to the finish on the s&p. don't forget coming up in "overtime" jesse huang of nvidia. you don't want to miss it. that's the end of regulation. avantis investors ringing the bell and zjk doing the honors on the nasdaq. call this a middling market after yesterday's session. that is the scorecard on wall street. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell" overtime. i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt. >> jensen huang is going to join us