able to get grace back, so, we're not going to give you that, you know, look ahead that we promised, just have to be a little bit surprised but you never know, "fast money" might actually give you that look ahead, they got lots of great info coming up on "fast money. >> they sure do. >> speaking of, "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight china rising, while the major averages in the u.s. are stuck in neutral, the large cap china etf up nearly 20% in a week. is this party just getting started or should you take the money and run? we'll debate that. plus, man versus machine as the port strike rolls on, one of the key sticking points beyond money, automation what the transportation secretary had to say tabout that. plus, charting the next move for home builders, and is

tesla's recent rally powering down i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, dan nathan, guy adami, chris verrone. we stop with the seemingly unstoppable surge in china stocks the hang seng jumping 6% overnight, hitting levels not seen since february 2022, up more than 30% in just the last three weeks. names like jd.com, baidu soaring 9% or more etfs in the u.s. jumping, with gains in the large cap fxi and the mchi helping drive emerging markets to 30-month highs. the recent run started last week after chinese officials unveiled a series of stimulus measures to help jump start the economy. is there more room for this rally to rise? and imbedded in that question, is this stimulus actually going to take effect and work, tim >> i think it will i think it's all relative to what you think can structurally change what we know are

demographic issues in china, and what we know to be a communist government, what we know dynamics that allow us to believe that this economy are going to have issues that are going to change. this is balance, plugging straight into the banks, it's not just cutting small checks on a retail level i really do believe this is something that will support gdp. they say 2 trillion is about 1.6% of gdp, supports this economy through kind of the mid '25. i don't know where it goes from there, and i don't really care, when i consider that i think global funds who can but don't in china, are underweight than they have been less, probably, less un underweight, but still, no question, very underweight relative to the last 25 years, certainly since i've been investing in that part of the world. i actually think that there's more to go here, and i do think there's a dynamic here we were naming a bunch of the western companies that are being

punished or continually punished, we talked about them, we talked about ulta, estee la lauder i think the chinese companies themselves, if we know that there's policy coordination and there's clarity, some clarity, that's what these stocks have needed, and i said i think it's not just alibaba, ten cent, baidu, some of the main names are the ones can you own >> the market's response has been so definitive whatever your view was two, three weeks ago, you at least have to be open to the idea this is the real thing. when i'm talking about how definitive this has been, look at the internals i've only seen these a couple times in my career, coming off the march 2009 low, when you're getting advance decline days of 30, 50 to 1. you had a one-month high this week, that is unprecedented. 100% of the index above the 50-day moving average. that is new cycle, early momentum really explosion under the surface, where you have to at

least be open to this. the big test structurally, can the bond yields follow in every single one of them, you've seen the bond yields go up and confirm, so, i want to see the chinese yield reflect the message that, hey this is the real deal. >> guy, your take? >> it's clearly going to fix the stock market in the short-term, and we have been talking about this for quite some time as a matter of fact, i think since february of this year, when the fxi made a double bottom of 21 we talked about it you trade the fxi, i think you have to figure out, well, alibaba's going, that's a big component of it, and 120, go back to the january 2023 high, i'm sure chris can look at it right now, it's about 120 or so, i think that's where it's headed we've been consistent on that. alibaba has been a horrible stock since october, hoalloween 2020 -- >> boo >> thank you, tim. we said this dozens of times look how many 50% bounces we've seen off lows. and we're in the midst of one now. >> yeah, i'm going to say the

same thing i said a couple nights ago at the end of the day, what's the pull forward in the stock market relative to what's going on in the equity market, the property markets tim just mentioned, you know, if the stimulus is equivalent to 1.5% of their gdp, you know, they're supporting the housing market, they're supporting the stock market, they're going after the consumer, that sort of thing. i get it, but when you see this sort of move, i mean, to chris's point, i've never seen a major index go up nearly 30% in a straight line in eight trading days and so, you know, at some point, karen said it really well the other night, she's like, i stuck my toe in the water, because this is a theme i kind of believe in, it's going to be a much longer term thing to play out. but i want to see it come in a bit. i just don't chase things like this i get why folks are doing that, but you know, to me, it's not my game >> at idan was on last night, h said he was advocating for the chinese story, didn't come, didn't come, and finally, it is here, and he sort of got caught

out of it. so, i guess the question is, a lot of people said, we thought the story was going to materialize. it didn't seem to. all of a sudden, it happened we're up 20% is it too late and i guess you're saying no >> it's not too late i was listening to evercore, they had their china strategist out. and different strategists have pointed out, everybody knows the challenges he referenced this as the most impressive, or, in terms of size and the sheer bazooka element of this, since the $4 trillion u.s. stimulus back in 2008. so, if we're comparing these two, and, again, it's not as if the u.s. economy was expected to jump out of bed in early 2009, but the stock market had one of the greatest rallies when things go from bad to terrible, that's when you make the most money i like it. i like coordination, and i like clarity, which i think the something that at least -- i don't know where that property market is going, we know there's so many problems out there, and things that will blow up at some

point, but the fact of the matter is, they're not going to support that rising bond yields, you want to see ppi go higher. you want to see some wholesale inflation in china that's what you're rallying. emerging markets, not just china, which is 40% of the indin index. it's a dynamic of a more benign fed and global growth that's better >> all right, one asia expert warns china's explosive rally ignores the risk of a japanese-like quagmire yale senior fellow stephen roach wrote a "financial times" op-ed this week. great to have you with us. you heard tim reference an evercore analyst, china strategist, making the comparison to the u.s. fiscal stimulus of 2008 you're making the comparison to the lost decade in japan why is that? >> well, thanks, melissa, and i always hesitate to take on the fire power of the "fast money"

crowd, but i'm still on the skeptical side i think that china/japan comparison is simply too close for comfort. bursting of a major debt-fueled asset bubble, the demographic and productivity challenges, and a whipff at deflation, right now and a growth shock that is very japanese-like. so, i think we have to look at the story from a japanese-like perspective, and that's the title of my piece, the three arrows or abe-nomics i don't see the three arrows, especially on the structural and fiscal side. so, count me as a skeptic. >> the three arrows that you're naming, fiscal, mon tape, as well as structural, so, you named two of them that you don't really think are robust. structural in particular the demographics in china,

that's certainly not being addressed. guy has a question >> mr. roach, i like that high-powers "fast money" crew. that's a first but i think it's fine to be skeptical of the economy i agree with you there, but can you be skeptical of the economy, but bullish on some of these underlying stocks and their stock market for the foreseeable feature? when i say that, to the end of the year >> sure you can, i mean, you know, we know this is a seriously oversold market, and it's turned around dramatically. but again, i'm going to take you back to the japan story. the nikkei 225 fell 66% from december of -- of 1989, through september of 1998. during that extraordinary plunge, probably the biggest plunge in a major asset market

we've ever seen, there were four bounces that averaged 34%. so, if you -- if you believe in the japan comparison, you got to be a little wary of what's happening to china, if you think china is following the japan template >> stephen, you know, we talk about the wealth effect, when you have stock market going up, when you have housing going up consider the sort of losses that consumers and investors have in china, and the property market and the stock market, does this sort of move change anything in that regard, as you think about the consumer because some of the names that moved first, and they've been relentless, are these consumer-facing businesses, whether it's alibaba, jd, ten cent, that sort of thing, and it just seems to be that this is kind of a beta chase, and if you go back to '21, that's exactly what was happening there they had a bubble not too different than the one that we had here, and, you know, valuations got stretched and the like, so, curious about the wet effect that is or is not created by this sort of stimulus >> well, for a wealth effect to

really have traction for consumers, it's got to be sustained, and, you know, we've had eight days, i mean, this is not something that i think well-strapped investors really believe is permanent, and if this rally lasts, as you guys think, then it will start to have an impact but it's not just wealth that drives consumers, they need income and, you know, the job problem in china is tough, especially for younger people, where the youth unemployment rate is -- is high and still rising, no matter how many times they redefine the number, so -- we'll have to wait and see on that, i mean, you know, right now, it's encouraging, but far too soon to tell >> stephen, it's tim is -- you spent so much time in china, you worked across the table from the chinese

government do you sense that there's any even small philosophical change in the chinese government's approach to markets and a market economy? i'm not holding out some unrealistic expectation that the communist party is changing their stripes. i am saying that the chinese recog anything where innovation is coming from, they recognize the geopolitics and the war they're at with the united states, which is an economic war, and they recognize the strength of u.s. companies strengthening their own companies and changing the environment a little bit could be, if you're getting any of that there, i think they could go a lot higher. >> i agree they could, but i'm looking for the evidence, tim. i mean -- xi jinping is the most ideologically-driven leader of china since mao, and if anything, he's digging in his heels, especially in the area that you pointed to, the restraint on the once very dynamic private companies, and that's a worrisome development,

and, you know, they talk a lot about the fact that they appreciate the diynamism of entrepreneurs, but they have done little to relieve the constraints they've put on the private sector, now more than three years ago. >> stephen, we always enjoy your analysis thank you for joining us >> thanks, guys. >> stephen roach of yale and just to underscore what stephen had mentioned in terms of the stats, 66% kwum laive decline during that lost decade, but we had four bounces of an on average 34%, so, you can make -- if you are nimble, you can make a lot of money which stocks, to you, look the best, within these indices >> i don't think we're done on baba yet guy, you noted it. there's a big gap from november of '21, near 155 on that chart, stock trades 115 today i think there's room to go there. one of the big things we noticed the last several months before

the rally took hold, chinese consumer discretionary, despite being in this apocalyptic recession, was outperforming the staples by a very, very wide margin when do you tend to see that you tend to see that when the market begins to anticipate some type of turn so, i think we got that there. two things can be true at one time you can be skeptical on the structural, but also very much involved in the near-term. and i think you have to be the latter here. >> at what point does the rubber meet the road? as the emerging market specialist, we have a demographic problem in china, we have a housing overhang, tremendous amounts of inventory, and that seems to create a real disconnect there how does that housing inventory get absorbed if -- >> no one has the answer to that they don't have the answer to that i'm not worried about that this is all about positioning for me chinese companies trade at a 30% price to book, which is cheap. so, i like it. and again, part of this is cheaper oil prices, a fed that's benign, global growth that isn't falling apart. that's a great recipe for china

and it's a great recipe for em. day two of the east and gulf coast port strikes president biden saying today he will not intervene the dock workers union fighting for a massive pay rise and to keep machines from taking their jobs cnbc's frank holland reports >> reporter: as the port workers strike continues, the main sticking point is the size of the raise the east coast and gulf coast workers want over 60%, and the protection of union jobs from automation right now, it's estimated that about 4% of ports are automated or semiautomated globally. one of the best known, the port of rotterdam in the netherlands, considered one of the most automated in the world a port in china was named the most efficient global port this year, and is considered the largest of awful the automated ports. there is automation at u.s. ports, as well the port of l.a. long beach is considered fully automated there are also semiautomated ports in virginia and new jersey, where the union is based, and is actively

demonstrating today. pay is still a primary issue in these negotiations top scale port workers make $39 an hour, or $81,000 a year however, with overtime and over benefits, longshoremen can make over $200,000 a year according to fed data, the median salary in the u.s. was just under $59,500 one issue that's caught the eye of many people following the port strike, the pay of uthe union president. he was paid $728,000 in 2023 also another $173,000 as the president of a local union chapter. we reached out to the ila, they said they did not want to comment about the pay. melissa, back over to you. >> all right, frank, thank you transportation secretary pete buttigieg addressing fears about robots taking over dock workers jobs during t"the exchange" today. >> a lot of port operations in europe, they're very high tech,

but they were able to get that implemented in partnership with their trade unions in a way that didn't lead to any job loss. i think those are the kinds of protections that these workers are interested in, as well you know, they want to be safe, they want to work with good, safe technology, but they want to make sure that that's not being used to -- to basically squeeze their livelihoods out. >> the ila, the union for the longshoremen, their statement specifically says they are against any technological advances that deprive any of their members of their livelihood >> i saw gary cohen on "squawk box" this morning. history is littered with conversations and statements like that but guess what there's inevitability of all of this there are ways around this it doesn't have to be sort of binary and gary spoke about it this morning. a three-year deal and you sort of move onto the integration, retrain, so -- they've dug in, i get it, i think it's going to

last longer than the market thinks, but today, the market doesn't seem to care >> the rotterdam port, which is fully automated, which has been for 30-plus years, they offered huge payouts to their workers in order to get them to move on so, there are ways to move forward. >> yeah, there are, and i think that's why the market is not addressing this as a near-term dynamic. it's something that obviously has to change more long-term, and i think that's part of what we're pricing into some of those sectors, even, but not necessarily what the market's doing. look, markets aren't paying attention to it today as it did yesterday. >> right now, we're really focused on gen a.i., if they're going to take jobs, we have automation that's been around for a long time, people have been worried about it it would be great if you could retrain some of these folks to do these jobs or do other jobs that are similar. coming up, big plans for eli lilly. the pharma giant investing billions in a new research hub how it will impact their drug pipeline, and what the ceo had to say, next. plus, a billionaire blend. bill ackman roasting starbucks -- you almost spit out

your candy bar, tim -- even as brian niccol looks to turn things around. why he's so bitter on the name, ahead. ahead. don't go with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. ♪♪ anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. ♪♪ beaches jamaica sale is now on. visit beaches.com or call 1-800-beaches. (cheerful music) (phone ringing) beaches jamaica sale is now on. (7?uo cf. the bootstrapper. the bootmaker. yeehaw [narrator] but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice.

every day, over a million multi-millionares trust schwab with more than two trillion dollars of their wealth. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. -you can make this work. -we can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about.

pete g. writes, "my tween wants a new phone. ameriprise financial. how do i not break the bank?" we gotcha, pete. xfinity mobile was designed to save you money and gives you access to wifi speeds up to a gig. so you get high speeds for low prices. better than getting low speeds for high prices. right, bruce? -jealous? yeah, look at that. -honestly. someone get a helmet on this guy. xfinity internet customers, ask how to get a free 5g phone and a second unlimited line free for a year. switch today!

welcome back to "fast money. eli lilly looking to pump up its drug pipeline. the company investing $4.5 billion to build a new research and manufacturing center in indiana. angelica peebles set down with the ceo for more on the company's plans. angelica >> hey, melissa. that's right lilly is focusing on this center to come up with new ways to make its medicines. now, the goal here is to replicate some of the success that it's found with tirzepatide. the company found a more efficient way to make that drug, and that is going to allow it to make more of it, and it's going to implement that process at a $9 billion manufacturing site that it's building close to that new center that it's building, that's about a 40-minute drive from where we are today at lilly's headquarters in indianapolis mel, you know how important supply is for lilly. the company is really focused on trying to build up the supply. right now, there's just not enough to launch it all over the world. david ricks telling me there are

40 countries where the drug is approved, but not launched, because they just don't have enough of it take a listen. >> i know people get upset because we haven't produced enough, that's, you know, pressure's a privilege we're doing everything we can to produce more right now in the u.s., we're in supply across the board, but we're waiting to launch in other places until we have more buffer to make sure we won't run out. still, we're growing dramatically, both our supply, but demand, as well. >> now, ricks is also interested in finding new technologies that can help alleviate those problems things like pills and longer-acting injectables. melissa? >> and some of the next generation weight loss drugs, those are more complicated to manufacture, so, is this sort of their answer to that problem >> this is one answer, so, today, we were actually at a lab where they were making one of those experimental obesity drugs. they wouldn't tell us which one, but it was a peptide and the problem is, these are

really complicated mall kuehls to make, so, lilly is looking for more efficient ways to make that again, it already found a new system with tirzepatide, but not all manufacturers can do that, so, that's why lilly is trying to find new ways to do it and bring that capability internally >> they said this was their way of getting off the dependence of third party manufacturers. this is also their answer to novo nordisk's acquisition to some facilities? >> yeah, and that's one thing that ricks and also the company's chief scientific talked about -- excuse me, chief scientific officer talked about, the fact that there is a hard time getting supply or getting availability at these contract manufacturing sites, also in part because of the constraints with the glp-1s that are in development. so, they're saying that by doing more of this in-house, they can potentially speed up some of the clinical trials, because they don't have to rely on those third party manufacturers, they can just go ahead as they need and dial up the manufacturers as

needed, depending on which drugs are showing the most promise >> all right, angelica, thank you. angelica peebles, live from indianapolis, where eli lilly's headquarters are so, both of these stocks have had some trouble of late, there's some concerns about prescriptions going into their quarters they both report end of the month, beginning of next month what do you see in the chart >> so, i think lilly's tired it's been tired since july the big day was september 27th that's a big level we gave it up, it's 905. i think as long as you are below 905, continue to play as this is in correction mode 810 to 815 is big support. i think ultimately, that's what you see here novo already broke novo broke pretty hard it's down 22, 23 from the highs. it is probably oversold. we have to get more skeptical of that one as it rallies really an opportunity to be reducing exposure. >> 123 in novo is a level we talked about, obviously through that, down to 116 today. yeah, maybe you'll catch a bounce back to that prior resistance, however, you look at

a chart, and there's a very good chance you have a bit of a head and shoulders formation here, melissa lee, so, keep that in mind >> all right there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. roasting starbucks what billionaire investor bill ackman had to say about the coffee chain ha as the company looks to percolate things with a new ceo at the helm. plus, a shock to tesla's stock. shares heading downhill after the ev maker's latest delivery numbers what the metrics mean for the business, and the next catalyst for the name. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. cf1 o

ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't

know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. (wind, rain and rolling thunder) (♪♪) nobody's born with grit. british anncr: rose is really struggling. it's something you build over time. american anncr: that's twenty-one missed cuts in a row. (car trunk slammed shut) for eighty-nine years, morgan stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking to create the future... crowd: stop it! ...only you can see.

american anncr: rose, back in the winner's circle. (crowd cheers) (♪♪) welcome back to "fast money. investor bill ackman isn't sipping on starbucks he came after the coffee roaster yesterday at an investment conference, ripping into everything from the drink prices to the sugar content to its digitalefforts this as new ceo brian niccol approaches one month on the job. shares up 25% since he took over valid points here. and these are things that niccol has to address >> tsugar content? we're getting a health angle

the dynamic inside of the stores is part of this. i think we get back to, where is brian niccol he's not necessarily -- you know, the -- when we've seen ceos take over for a -- a ceo either in the case of starbucks, where there was some real concern management didn't have control in their stores, you've been looking for the kind of coo kind of guy. that's not brian niccol. he's actually going to retake over one of the best brands in the world. the bottom line is, i go back to starbucks over and over again and i hate the prices. and i hate the chaos in the stores but there is an experience i've come to expect being that consumer i care more about the stock getting back to the margins. i think the stock's had a great run, because of this news, and because it was oversold. and i think that's something to build on, but i think it struggles for the next 15% higher, i really do. >> i think if the market's really going to validate this, this is the real deal. it has to get through 100. that's been the downtrend line for basically four years i do think if you tested the chart here and i got a

pull-back, that is to 87, 88, 90, that's down 10%. i would be a buyer there's a ton of support so, the trend is changing. but i think it does take time before you punch through 100 bucks. >> i agree if you look, well, first of all, bernstein just raised their price target from 115 to 92. jeffries downgraeded the stock, and i think the problems at starbucks are far more deep-rooted than one quarter or two quarters to be able to sort of figure out, so, i think -- and we've said it since the bounce with mr. niccol, you fade it and get back in the low 80s, high 70s >> i also think you fade it. right now, the street has 10% eps growth in 2025, high single digits revenue growth, and i just think that's probably unattainable at this moment. >> made the comparison to nike on the way down. yesterday, that's exactly what nike did, so, why not? >> and the new ceo dynamic, people thought with this boeing.

we've been having great fun with the starbucks meta fphors tonig. >> who did all of those -- is it -- >> yes, michael. >> one of the best >> did a great job got to give a shoutout. coming up, the big drop in humana why is government is slashing quality ratings for many of its plans and how it will impact results down the line. and tesla shares doing the electric slide, as ev deliveries disappoint disappoint "fast money" is back in two. aflac! like how aflac pays people money for the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. aflac! health insurance does leave a gap. but aflac gives people money to help close that gap.

aflac! oh! coach prime got one on the line too baby! uh huh! see that's how you hold up a trophy. trust me. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. i hope you're hungry. i'm glad i brought my own dinner. uh huh. is it possible to be more capable? and more practical? my own dinner. be able to perform here. and here. make a statement while barely making a sound. and command the road, as well as what lies ahead. how we get there matters. get exceptional offers at your local audi dealer.

welcome back to "fast money. stocks little change today, as investors digested some economic data this morning. private payrolls coming in better than expected, but focus turning to friday's jobs report. shares of humana tumbling 12% today. the centers for medicare and medicaid services downgrading many of humana's officofferings. packaged foods company conagra dropping 8% after reporting and earnings miss. and an earnings alert on levi strauss.

the company missed revenue estimates. the ceo of levi and conagra will be on "mad money" tonight. that's coming up at the top of the hour humana, that drop was sizable, chris. >> it's a bad chart, it's been a bad chart for a long time. i'm not sure i can help you here >> okay. >> this has been deteriorating for the better part of three years. maybe you can look back at the 2020 lows, about 2010, say there's support there, but we don't catch falling eggs >> i think he was in my head if you pull up a chart from 2020, you'll see, that's the level. i mean, the 2020 low, which is somewhere 2010 and 215 has the bulls eye on it. they report, i think, on halloween -- >> boo >> there's a very good chance that's there by then >> caught you bill surprise, huh? meantime, tesla shares sinking as much as 6.4% today after posting third quarter delivery -- delivery numbers that came in below expectations. the stock is back in negative

territory for the year our phil lebeau is with us to break down all the numbers for us, and phil, it's interesting, because all those estimates crept up, up, up into the numbers and then here we are >> yes clearly sell the news kind of day. and we've seen this in the past, when tesla has reported quarterly deliveries or either financial results, stock keeps moving up, the news comes out and it's not terrible. but it still sells this here are the numbers for the third quarter for tesla. they essentially hit expectations at 462,890. you can quibble if they were a few hundred shy of expectations, they were in line. 6.4% gain compared to the third quarter of last year by the way, first year over year increase in sales since the fourth quarter last year 95% model 3 and y. i've seen analysts bring up the fact we haven't seen cyber truck deliveries broken out yet. but the bottom line is this, if they're going to hit the estimate for full-year deliveries of 1.78 million, they're going to have to grow

sales in the fourth quarter by 4%, 5%, they'regoing to have t come up with 485,000 vehicles delivered. not impossible, but they're going to have to grow from where they are right now all of this brings up the question, okay, so, what's next for tesla's shares look, we've all known for some time that the focus now is on the robotaxi event next week this ismusk is going to unveil the robotaxi, going to give us details, theoretically details about when they're going to launch, where, you know, when we expect to see this. he'll probably show some type of a cyber cab prototype, at least that's the expectation among analysts, but i think the real news within that event, melissa, might be what they say about a lower-priced model that's going to come out much sooner than that, because that's where the market is right now. vehicles driven by humans. yes, it is enticing to think about the possibilities, and we'll hear more about this when they report their financials on october 23rd

it's enticing to think about the possibilities, melissa, the reality is, i'm suspected that next week, elon musk will tant liz everybody with the possibilities, but the details may leave investors wanting. >> all right phil, thank you. phil lebeau. let's get more on tesla's numbers with deepwater as met management's gene munster. good to have you with us you think another motdledel wil announced? >> i do. i actually think three models. the cheaper model that we were just talking about, i think they'll have a robo-van, we'll call that something that's way off, and then, of course, the robotaxi so, i'm going into this thinking we'll have three models. i do agree with phil that next week is going to probably be light on details if you just look at the setup of the event, the number of people that would be there, this is not analysts and investors with their laptops, this is essentially a launch party, and so, you can imagine elon getting up there, talking in kind of

very high level and not giving much substance around details. the one detail that i'm going to be hyper focused on is that cheaper $25,000 car, when they expect to ramp production. and i just want to kind of put one thread through why this is important for next year, is that the street's looking for growth to go from essentially 7% in the most recent quarter to 12% next year to get to that 12%, you essentially need to have that cheaper model starting to ramp in the middle of the year. if you look at historically, the gap between when they announce a vehicle to when it actually becomes available would suggest it's going to be late in '25 or early '26. so, we could be shaping up for a little bit of an air pocket, still believe we're going to get back to growth, but i think investors should have their kind of -- their eyes clearly on the timing of this new vehicle, because it's going to impact delivery growth next year. >> so, the 12% growth number you're talking about is 12% in

deliveries or 12% in revenue i would imagine the more models you're watching and trying to ramp, the thinner the margins will be. and that could be an issue >> yeah, 12% was in terms of deliveries, and i think the street's starting to factor in some of that cheaper model >> all right so, it's baked into revenues, it's baked into profits, it's baked into margins >> yeah, and you could see, if that timing gets slipped, a big believer in tesla, i think growth -- deliveries growth will ramp into the 20%, but i think people should have a level head in terms of what '25 looks like. >> gene, it's tim. so, again, around gross margins, 14.6 is the number i see being talked about what do they have to do to get the street excited that you're not seeing this erosion, and is there any expectation that that could be a surprise? >> we're still in the transition period i think this is an important quarter, the september quarter, because we finally returned to growth after six months of declining deliveries, so, that's an important part. and i think that lays the groundwork for us to have some

improving margins, but as long as they kind of stay stable, i think it will give investors, of course tesla investors are notorious for having a long-term view if they can keep that stable right around that 14%, 15%, and keep some optimism around these products coming out mid to late next year, i think that's enough if that margin declines, then, of course, it's going to be a whole different conversation around the stock >> all right, genen, , great toe you. >> thank you >> so what does this mean for the stock? low on details, enthusiasm going into the end of the year, maybe they hit 1.8 million deliveries total for the year new models >> robotaxi. that's it. to me, that's it given the run that the stock has hate, just my opinion, they really have to overdeliver in terms of this robotaxi for the stock to continue to accelerate, and i'm hard-pressed to believe a company which is, i think, pretty much usually overpromises and underdelivers, is going to be able to do that >> yeah,robotaxi, people

are already discounting that, it's not a great scenario. if they get back to a $25,000 ev, that's what everyone's been waiting for, but if you look at north america, which is maybe 35%, 40% of their sales, they don't want fully ev, they want actually hybrid right now. and so, that's something that elon has put his stake in the ground that they're not going to do so, to me, i think next week is going to be a big disappointment. coming up, homebuilder, home sweet homebuilders what the traders think of the trade's blueprint. all that when "fast money" returns.s■edo cf1 o

their very liberal rates on idle cash. they would descend into chaos.

at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals.

pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. welcome back to "fast money. homebuilders hovering near their highs of the year, but one of our traders thinks the names are due for a correction, though says there are more gains to come long-term let's go off the charts with chris. what do you see? >> yeah, well, i think it's certainly been one of the better trends of this market for basically two years. we've been lucky to be there i want to be careful in the near term they do look tired we've brought along a couple names, lennar in particular. this is kind of flirting with that 180 level you start to lose 180, the 50-day moving average there, and it just risks the likelihood of a deeper pull-back

i don't think it will be fatal long-term, but just want to keep our head on a swivel here, particularly dr horton here, as well another example of just lock-term winner it's up 45% since july, i wouldn't be shocked to see these take a rest or a pause doesn't look like bond yields want to percolate here and start to rise. you wonder if that begins to hit some of these here now, i would focus on what is starting to break out here, we're starting to work these home retail stocks act fantastic. home depot comes to mind it's been trying to get through 420 for basically the better part of the last three years, it's right on the verge of doing so we think it will, and if depot speaks to the integrity of the broader consumer discretionary group, i would just note discretionary continues to outperform staples here. if you're looking for a consumer that's still okay, discretionary over staples continues to set that tone. >> got a job number coming up, i think -- that is a bad number, i think chris is going to be spot-on in terms of the two home builders specifically.

they are seemingly starting to roll over for the first time in awhile i think that friday number is essential for these stocks >> yeah, i think you're playing relative value within the space, and if you look at, you know, pulte versus a dhi i've been wrong on home builders my view is, as we went in expectation of lower fed and -- or less fed and lower rates, we kept taking these things to fresh all-time highs despite the fact i don't think anything really changed in terms of the fundamentals on hold here, but if you're playing the space, pulte >> it's worth noting, and we've made this point on a few occasions, that maybe mortgage rates had kind of moved ahead of what the fed was doing last month. i just don't find it particularly interesting, if that's the bullish case, i like what chris is saying here, they look tired to me. coming up, jensen huang weighing in on a new a.i. partnership. what he had to say about the tech teamup and where idnvia could be headed next

"fast money" is back in two. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year.

that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. so, the question is - cyber attack. as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. the only network with built in security controls. chip? at&t business. let's say you're deep in a show or a game or the game. on a train, at home, at work. okay, maybe not at work. point is at xfinity. we're constantly engineering new ways to get the entertainment you love to you

faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island? welcome back to "fast money. nvidia announcing it is teaming up with accenture. jensen huang was on "overtime"

last hour, talking about the next wave of a.i here's what he had to say. >> this is the -- now the beginning of a new wave called enterprise a.i., and then after that, as we're entering into enterprise a.i., we'll simultaneously develop and cultivate the wave after that, which is industrial a.i. it is incredibly hard to do. >> he was also asked about the state of current chip demand >> the demand for blackwell is insane everybody wants to have the most, and everybody wants to be first. >> it's insane the stock was up in the afterhours on the back of this, guy. >> there was a commercial back in the '80s in new york city where the -- the protagonist would talk about their prices being insane and -- i'm -- i'm not making any parallels. >> what happened to crazy eddie? >> you can google it yes, absolutely. and all that is priced in, and chris can speak to the technicals, but what i will tell you, that june 20th engulfing pattern that we've talked about

a number of times has not been violated yet >> it's worth looking at some other names. qualcomm is quietly gaining sh share. microsoft surface, the dell xps. this is a cheap stock. it has the kind of a.i. rally, so, qualcomm is kind of interesting here >> nvidia trades the same price today it did on may 28th we've gone four months with absolutely nothing here. we're in this big wedge above 128, you play it long, below 113, you're a seller until then, just wait. >> so, since may -- at what point do you say, that's a base? >> yeah. >> well, not a very long base. >> as we know, there are ways stocks can correct this is corrected through price and time right now it's been four, five months. let's see if that 200-day moving average catches up and support >> i think the fear around production on blackwell and what

you're going to get in the fourth quarter, i think is going to be high volume production in that quarter, and i think the stock is going to rally on it. it's not expensive based on where it is. i would take the glass half full in terms of this period where the stock has really underperformed if you look at semis as a group, they have underperformed and i think ultimately the backdrop we have here, it's not runaway growth to the economy. these things get to be a little defensive. >> guy, if you would -- >> yes, melissa. >> can you cast judgment on dan's -- >> whoa. >> thesis that you can go elsewhere and that maybe qualcomm would be a better area than nvidia? >> that is, i think, if you want to be -- >> should we split them up >> depending on what he says he might be with dan >> when you can make a compelling case for certain companies, for example, qualcomm on valuation, in an environment where i think people are going to start to look at the valuation, yes is the answer but they're completely different companies, obviously, in terms of what the market is looking at >> yeah, but if you can look out the way we have jensen huang

laying out -- laying out his road map, and actually buy what he's selling, it's going to be enterprise, then it's going to be industrial, but at some point, things are going to kind of smooth out a little bit as far as demand is concerned, but i think that's a pretty good road map >> quickly on the qualcomm chart? >> i'm not there i prefer nvidia. >> split these guys up >> micron has given back the entire earnings -- >> oh yeah >> are you bullish is that, you know, giving it up? does it mean it's time to jump back in? >> i don't think that's what you want to see. >> me, either. >> up next, final trades

at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.

at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work.

and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

welcome back to "fast money. i hope that curse word didn't go out on air costco expanding its offering of precious metals. they'll sell 1 ounce platinum bars for $1,100. in april, wells fargo estimated the company was selling between $100 and $200 million worth of metals a month now, before we get to the final trade -- >> yeah. >> special birthday wish to peter kennel, the father of our executive producer sam, he turns 87 today happy birthday, sir. >> hopefully his son will buy him some platinum at costco. emerging markets continue to trade like they're platinum coated i think they're going higher on china. >> chris >> freeport long, a big base >> dan >> qualcomm's worth a look on

the fundamentals, verrone. >> guy >> your son loves you, come see us at the show >> yes, for sure open invitation. t-mobile, mel. tc all right, thank you for wahing "fast money." don't go anywhere. my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market summer. i promise to help you find it. mad money, starts now. >> hey, i am cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramer. my friends, i'm just trying to make you a little bit of money. my job is not just to entertain, but to explain everything for you. 1:807 -- when you hear about the presidential election, there is really only one issue.