scattered about, unchanging. ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs. i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines. oil prices extend gains as the prospect of a regional war in the middle east raises fears of display disruption. germany fell into contraction territory.

we bring you the numbers for the eurozone and uk this hour. the ftse 100 out performing in europe while sterling tumbles as becoe governor says rate cuts could happen if inflation stays soft. and openai with the bumper foundation our u.s. colleagues will speak with sarah friar today at 15:15 london time. good morning, everyone we have a lot to get through on the show let's kick things off with the eurozone final composite pmi for the month of september at 49.6 this is versus a flash of 48.9 so, that is, obviously, a bit

better than expected overall, if we take a look at the services number, that service sector has ground to a halt in europe's biggest economy, that is germany, of course, in the month of september. we saw manufacturing pmis a couple days ago and they painted the bleak picture. spanish services pmi was good news the french services sector is in contraction. we see the olympics boom is fading the final composite pmi for the eurozone is 49.6 versus 51 in august back below the boom-bust line of 50 the euro/do llar is under pressure 1.1030 that is down .1% we are roughly one hour into the

trading session and the stoxx 600 is under water to the tune of 0.8%. we are seeing that, i tesco is e after lifting the guidance the picture you are seeing here is the following one the ftse 100, despite tesco beat, is under performing down 0.1% doing better than the rest dax is weighed down by the auto stocks off 0.9%. keep in mind the german market is open, but it is a holiday the cac 40 is down a bit and the ftse mib is suffering from the stellantis hangover. let's show you the gainers we don't have any actual gainers today. oil and gas, given the uptick in oil is still down. when it comes to the losers, this is the picture i want to

show you the autos, as i mentioned, down by a whopping 2% we will talk tesla later on in the show construction is down 1.34% i want to keep you abreast of the oil markets. we have seen the fear premium priced back into the market the last couple days given the escalation in the middle east. i want to show you where oil prices are trading out right now and this is the picture. we're up 1.4% for wti crude at 74.08. that is the print for brent crude up 1.3%. dan joins us now dan, nothing from opec >> reporter: that is right, carolin. the first is the tensions ratcheting up in the middle east with israel striking central beirut overnight this is the central attack in the capital after the invasion

of lebanon this week lebanese officials say at least six people were killed adding to the toll of 1,300 since israel into lebanon into the week with the ground operation and ground offensive against hezbollah operative there isis they have lost eight soldiers in lebanon. the situation not improving on the ground there oil traders weighing the escalation risk with israel vowing to respond to the iran missile attack how israel reacts. as we have been reporting this week, there were suggestions we could perhaps see israel targeting iranian military sites or nikuclear facilities. something president biden has been talking about and pushing

back on. the suggestion that israel could strike iranian oil facilities would cause a massive surge in the price of oil because iran is an opec producer and it is critical when it comes to assessing the sentiment within the market moving forward. we are watching to see exactly what israel does next. speaking of opec, we had an interesting story develop in the last 24 hours as well. saudi arabia denying a wall street journal report which had allegedly claimed that a conference call took place where the saudi energy minisuister wad oil would sink to $50 a barrel this is not necessarily a new story. we have been seeing these reports for the last couple weeks as well. opec was quick to come out and say this is entirely unfounded in a statement last night, opec secretary categorically refutes

these claims made within "the wall street journal o" story. opec officials suggest this suggests concerns or t trepidation. oil has been rising in the most significant moment in the middle east in recent memory. the finger of blame pointed toward countries like iraq and kazakhstan for kexample. the message from the the opec leadership is those countries need to step up and stop overproducing and toe the line and push prices higher from here carolin, that's the latest >> dan, thank you for that w we will with big into that story

with our guest in a mibit. still a couple hours before the trading session. the s&p 500 is off 0.4%. similar declines for the dow jones and nasdaq the major acknoverages were hig. private payroll seeing 143,000 jobs added in the month of september. of course, all eyes on the big jobs report out of the u.s. tomorrow let's talk more about u.s. markets with alex morris at fm investments. thank you for staying up late or getting up early i don't know which it is very much appreciated. we are already a couple days into the month of october. typically a scary month more investors, no pun intended here. how should one be positioned >> it is a strange time to figure out geopolitics and the election we had a civil vice presidential debate, which is probably a good

thing it can be forgettable. this is the time when investors need to be really on alert and if you have an asset allocation plan, stick to it and don't ask too many questions about it because a lot's going to happen. that's it. we have been positioning folks out the mag seven names and the large-cap portfolio. we still think there is a lot of room left despite what the fed is up to and be on the short end of the curve if you want to wait out the cash markets to wait what will happen with the hot and cold wars and fraught political one ongoing now. >> alex, you could figure the back drop is benign. we have the soft landing everyone was hoping for and strong corporate earnings. i think the third quarter earnings season will confirm that on top of that, you have more rate cuts coming what is the biggest risk

is it potentially the fed pausing when it comes to rate cuts >> i think the market might be a little ahead of itself and what it expect from the fed we saw the 50 basis points which is the insurance cut we got half credit 25 is half of 50 i appreciate that. this was really their way of saying we cut 25 now and we should have cut 25 before had we known the numbers we were seeing were going to be revised so much i think pricing in substantially more from the fed at the end of year and early next year is optimistic the fed is set to pause now. now they have a chance to really assess the data apparend look ws going on we're still adding 143,000 jobs. that's not enough of recession i think the fed will take this nice and slowly and that will

rile some of the bond markets. >> alex, i have to talk to but the u.s. elections we're five weeks away or so. your message is the investor is following. stay firm regardless who wins. why is that? >> it is a timely market it is not any one party that wins if you have a equally based election, it is just about 50/50, you realize 100% of folks who vote and invest want to see assets go up over time that's what both parties have been able to deliver we have our favorites, but if you try to time the market in any one factor, in particular, someone getting elected, eaven f it is the person you voted for and agree, that is a bad metric. be ready to move there always will be sector changes. let's face it, when is the last time a candidate ran on a

manifesto? it hasn't happened yet. >> much it depends on the makeup of congress and powers align there, obviously what weighs heavier potential increase in the corporate tax rate or the immigration and tariffs? >> i think the story of all this is immigration although there is a host of other factors that might be interesting to consider, at the end of the day, the fed has been on a tear against immigration. that's what reallydrives interest rate policy and how we control that that's fgoing to be the story. neither candidate is running on a fiscal responsibility ticket both look pretty well poised to balloon the deficit. that is the measure in the story that happens we will get a new fed chair governor elected or appointed in the course of whomever wins this term that's going to drive a lot of

future policy decisions. for us, all eyes on immigration going forward -- i'm sorry, fed policy that's the story that will contribute to it which is political theater. that's the meat of the issue. >> alex, thank you so much for those opening thoughts stay with us i want to get your perspective on the following story openai raising $6.6 billion in fresh funding which would value the company at 56 billion dollars. the investment backed by microsoft and nvidia cements the position as the most valuable private business into the world. kate rooney has this report >> reporter: soft bank invested

and nvidia uae backed fund and khosla ventures and cathie wood was involved in the funding. it will build tools to help people solve hard problems openai is the maker of chatgpt we learned it has 250 million weekly users that's more than double a year ago. up by 50 million or so in the past two months. it is one of the most valuable private american companies behind spacex and ahead of stripe at this point to put this in context, this company is now more valuable than goldman sachs, uber and lockheed martin and double the value of chipotle. openai is in the process of becoming a for-profit company. kate rooney, cnbc business news,

san francisco. >> this was first reported by the wall street sdwjournal and financial times. the move is likely to stoke criticism from elon musk who sued over perceived manipulation on a programming note, our u.s. colleagues will speak with sarah friar. catch that interview at 3:15 london time. nvidia ceo told our cnbc colleagues it is entering a new chapter. >> we are looking at the beginning of the wave of a.i the biggest wave of a.i. and this is about companies around the world using a.i. to be more productive as their digital employees andt agents and copilots and using generative a.i. to revolutionize the way

they build their products and the products they build. >> alex morris at f/m investments is still with us alex, i want your perspective at the hefty price tag of openai which is $157 billion. that is enormous there are questions around the business model and ability to return a profit and revenues as well as the governance model switching from for-profit -- sorry, non-profit to for-profit. what are your thoughts on this >> something that gets that quickly has issues that is a very hefty price tag, it does generate revenue 250 million weekly users that is a scale that defies the use of startup that's what a mature company looks like we will be tested and certainly as we work in uber and it became

public and until we start an underwriting process and let professionals take a look at it, we won't really know given what's going on and i think jensen huang spoke about it it's the biggest wave of a.i. yet. this is not the only type of company we will hear about it's a well regarded one that seems like a big number it seems reasonably well justified. there are investors paying attention there. they made mistakes in valuation before, but certainly what chatgpt has done and how quickly it became for a.i. is remarkable and that will continue and this justification or valuation is justified and might seem cheap if they deliver on the promise they have. >> let's talk about a.i. and pro broader tech with leadership in the u.s.

obviously, it's lost the crown we see financials and utilities taking leadership. that's good. that's, in a way, what we want we want the broadening out of the market leadership here what does that say, though, about the staying power about the rally, alex? >> i think that one sub sector and let's not forget a.i. is a sub sector and broken into comp services and other handful of sectors. it doesn't have to be the dominant and predominant returner all the time to be something to impact our lives. one of the next phases of the a.i. space is it will drive innovation in the sectors. their win is also a.i.'s win i don't look at that as this needs to be the chief and out performer of all time for it to still be a very successful rally of the names we do want to see it in the second and third position on a regular basis.

also being first makes it a target for traders and short squeezers and trading techniques that are not necessarily have anything to do with the underlining companies or viability or market structure. sometimes it is okay to wait it out. >> that's a very good point and great analogy and being second or third alex morris, thank you very much. still coming up on the show, japan's new prime minister says the country is not in the position to hike rates ainga we'll bring you more after a short break. don't go away.

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welcome back to the show you are still watching "street signs. we are seeing china and south korea closed for the golden holiday. the nikkei is closing higshighe

30,200 because we got a comment from the prime minister which follows the meeting with the bank of japan and it marks away from the ishiba reputation as a policy hawk. lynn lin filed this report >> reporter: the weakening yen closed down against the dollar this happened after the new prime minister shigeru ishiba changed his views on the rates environment in japan ishiba-san saying the nation not in an environment for additional rate increase in the effort to shake off the reputation of a hawk after he met with the bank of governor yesterday. this coming after he made a reputation for being fiscally conservative and frequent critic of abenomics

many of the less popular policies could be put on the back burner as he focusing on domestic politics and winning the next election which is scheduled for october 27th he has a lot of challenges ahead, including gaining a mandate from the public as well as patching up the deep divides. as the yen weakened, the nikkei d bounced higher from growth stocks which benefitted from lower rates. lynn lin, cnbc business news >> despite push back, markets still see the boj hiking more on cnbc.com. coming up on the show, sticking to a planned production increase in december we will take a closer look at the implications for oil markets. that's coming up next. we also have uk pmi and services

pmi just around the corner stick around for that.

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hello. welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines oil gains as fears in the middle east as israel launches fresh strikes on beirut. european markets tick lower as the final pmi confirms france and germany fell in contraction territory and euro business activity slows down. we'll bring you the numbers for the uk in a few moments. the uk markets with the numbers tumbltumbling. openai with a fresh funding round giving the valuation of

$157 billion our u.s. colleagues will speak to the openai cfo sarah friar at 3:15 london time bank of england governor andrew bailey says the bank could be at a new approach to cutting rates. in the interview, bailey said he was he encouraged and the uk economy is proven to be more resilient than expected. quick check of the markets the ftse 100 at 8,293. pound-sterling off quite a bit the uk pmi is in just a bit. a quick check of equity markets as we await the data

the dax down 0.8%. a public holiday today the markets are open the cac 40 is down 1%. t tesco has lifted by 10 pounds and first half profit. british consumers remain cautious and holding back on larger purchases until they get more clarity from the government on the tax and spending plans. take a look at the shares here tesco up by a little more than 2% let's get to the uk data the final services pmi coming in at 52.4 versus flash of 52.8 obviously that is worse than expected the final compose iposite pmi i. the uk services slowing price

increases according to the pmi numbers. obviously, the services sector is the dominant sector here in the uk we got the manufacturing pmis earlier this week and they pointed to some stagnation we also had the eu services pmi out today and they pointed to stagnation as well very much in germany, contraction still in france. a very divergent picture across the eurozone here in the uk, uk services firms are slowing price increases. i think the big news when it comes to uk equities and uk assets today including the pound-sterling, the news coming from andrew bailey once again, sterling-dollar at 1.3125 it is not the pmi, but the dovish comments from the boe governor that the boe could become more activist on rate cuts let's stay in the uk because uk

pri prime minister keir starmer and von der leyen said cooperation is needed to make the brexit agreement work the two met in brussels on wednesday when they jointly called for deescalation in the middle east. starmer said it is important to get all sides of the conflict to the negotiating table. let's take a listen. >> can i condemn you on the attack by iran recently? we stand with israel to full right to self and security defense. we do need to pull back from the brink of all parties to find a way to deescalate and political solution to the front of the chri crisis in the middle east. first and foremost in our minds are the hostages held.

they should be released immediately and unconditionally. >> let's stay with the topic air strikes killed six people in be beirut after it came after the deadliest day in a year g7 leaders expressed strong concern over the crisis saying the diplomatic solution is still viable nbc news correspondent keir simmons has the latest from qatar. >> reporter: the president here qatar this morning he was able to fly out of iran despite more flights canceled and despite the fact he was flying within 24 hours of the overnight attacks on israel by iran almost 200 missiles filed by

iran israel promising it will respond and promising it will respond with force and many expecting a more forceful response than we saw last time back in april. now, then, israel targeted surface-to-air missile batteries in iran, but a very limited number of strikes. will they do more now? will they target tehranian missile batteries or target commercial targets like oil installations? if that happened, that will have a real impact on the economy and oil prices you with imagine the conversations are happening with the u.s. and israelis and the u.s. may say it doesn't want those commercial targets to be part of the plan

the other issue is it would damage the civilian population in iran. if you target the missile batteries, in a sense, you are targeting the way iran attacks israel another question, will israel decide to target iran's nuclear program? that would be highly escalatory. we don't know when it will happen, but we know it is going to and likely within days. >> that was nbc news' keir simmons. opec's energy minister warned on the conference call that oil prices will fall to $50 a barrel should members difficult verge from limits. policy has been unchanged in the policy meeting on wednesday and sticking to the planned production in december

they are planning to unwind cuts after prices fell below $70 a barrel let's get more on the market with the chief analyst at seb. great to have you around the desk here. i wacht nt to get to the commenn the wall street journal. i guess it points in one direction. it's the sense that potentially we might be going back to, you know, years of 2014 and 2015 when we would see a price war for saudi arabia to defend market share is that a possibility you might be looking at? >> always a possibility. what we have seen from saudi arabia is they have been guiding long-time ahead on what they're planning to do this is not the flash crash increasing production from one day to the next. it's about in june saying we are going to lift production in october. they are saying we are doing it in december instead.

d definitely, saudi arabia is not happy that iran and iraq are producing more. >> what can you do to keep them in line? >> it is the threat of low prices. >> is it working will it be working >> they still have october and november to show they will sty in line and produce according to plan if your friends are not helping you, you might not have a price. >> let's look at the geopolitical risk. i guess all of that has to do with the ample supply we are seeing in the middle east. we are not going to go much higher than 75 what is your outlook if the conflict escalates further >> it depends on how the conflict escalates further it goes without saying that israel is going to retaliate

after the latest iranian attack. it is going to happen within five days, before october 7th u t , the one-year anniversary is it going to be a feeble attack like we saw in april and going down or is it a more violent attack going after military i installations or nuclear installations? oil installations are also on the table. that is bugging the market at the moment how forceful will it be? how damaging is it going to be is it going to be an escalation and escalation again >> you still have the back drop of ample supply in the market not just in the middle east, but also in the u.s. if donald trump returns to the white house, there's going to be more supply on top of the record

supply we're already seeing. what does that mean for the oil price? >> i think we are talking about spare capacity on opec plus on paper with 6 million barrels in terms, 5 million barrels per day. if we lose all iranian exports of more than 2 million barrels per day, opec plus can readily replace it it would drawdown the spare capacity to like three or four million bathrrels. if that happened, you took out the oil installation in iran, the next question in the market would be what would happen now in the strait of hormuz and that would add a significant risk to premium. >> what risk >> if you take out the installations in iran, you go $200 plus. >> wow currently we're at 71 and 75 for

brent crude. what i'm trying to understand i the fear premium and geopolitical risk premium. i had a guest on the show yesterday saying it is short. >> it is weak oil prices given the scenarios that might play out in the middle east we stayed comfortably for one or two years. we bottomed out at 68.68 in early september. we are only up $6 on the potentially devastating scenarios in the middle east it is a meager rebound. >> we talked about the supply side of the price of oil let's talk about the demand side and the stimulus that's come from china on the monetary and fiscal side. is that going to move the needle when it comes to the oil surprise and overall demand? >> you know, i don't think it is

directed to the part of the economy where it really matters all that much for oil. you have seen the oil price which didn't move much after stimulus i think the stimulus is good it's good for the chinese economy, but not the big bazooka. i think consumers are reluctant to spend money in china. >> on balance, we probably have to get used to a lower oil price between $70 and $80 a barrel it seems saudi arabia is already going in that direction. they are pretty much abandoning the unofficial $100 target for crude. they are getting used to the new reality. is that how you are seeing it? >> i think definitely so they could wish for $100, but they cannot demand $100. they can control the oil price in the short-term, but not the long term. it is the demand side versus the

supply side. it's the market that decides the price. saudi arabia can play around it. they have to adhere to technology and demand side sensitivities to oil price that's where we are with $70 to $80. if you look at shale, it has gone side ways for a year. count is down 23% in two years this is going to be interesting. usually there is a lag of six weeks from price goes down by mid-october, we should see potential sensitivities to lower prices >> all right lower count. chief analyst at seb thank you for your time. i appreciate it on this very important story. still coming up on the show, another very important story tesla's closely watched delivery figures disappoint investors despite rising on the year we will be breaking down the mbs. th'soming up next.

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and italy are set to give tariffs of 45% of chinese-made evs when the vote is expected tomorrow that is according to reuters shares of tesla dropped sharply after the company missed third quarter delivery expectations despite breaking two quarters of declines arabile joins me around the desk you have been poring over the numbers all morning. i have to wonder if the stock price was impobad? >> it was anticipation of the run-up of the growth you could see. perhaps the deliveries would be better off for the company, but they had put in incentives and cheaper pricing and financing deals in place here. the market, unfortunately not liking overall

up 6.4%. just not enough when you compare to what the market was anticipating of 463,000 or 469,000 according to lseg. that was a key factor to look out for in all of this it is the first increase in year on year deliveries for this year the shares fell as much as 6% off the back of this news. the usissue here becomes it will be difficult for tesla to meet the target of 1.8 million deliveries that they had last year just to reach that, they would have to get 560,000 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter alone just not to get a drop in sales. the key question is what is next on the agenda and could that help with the ramp up of sorts you have the robotaxi event next month. they could unveil that robotaxi and roll out with a few more

purc purchases. it's the long run-up and a.i. vehicles elon musk says this is for the history books and plus earnings are set to come through. one must remember that tesla is still best in class. compared to deliveries, byd brought up 443,000 in the same quarter. up 2.7% from a year earlier. industry data saying tesla had weaker sales in europe, but strong sales in china. that went up 25% quarter on quarter. that is uptick just quickly, that share price, as can you tell as well, just this year, the is to be price hasn't moved this year, but up 75% from its lows it hit in april, carolin >> that's in anticipation of the robotaxi event a lot to unpack with carl.

carl, what was the issue here? was the number just simply too high >> i think the whisper number or consensus is a red herring for the delivery number. when you are tesla and shipping and getting on to half a million vehicles per quarter, one here or there is not enough to move the needle as we saw the stock move yesterday the way i read this, at least, is that investors, you know, you mentioned the 75% run up since the april lows and 35% of that in the last couple months. investors may be taking a bit of profit and bit of positioning ahead of the robotaxi event and full earnings release later this month. i think maybe that's more of the driver there than 1,000 or 2,000 short of deliveries. >> can i ask you about the robotaxi event

obviously a lot of excitement ahead of that event. i'm not fully bought into it it doesn't matter what i think at the end of the day, consumers need to be convinced of the story. can you flush out the story here a little bit because i'm trying to see the real catalyst and when it would actually materialize. are we years away or decades away >> yeah, look, you are not the only one who is taking october 10th with a pinch of salt before its happened i'm reminded of the classic "simpsons" episode where homer revealed with the long-awaited car for homer. that came with muted reception that is the down side over what happens with the robotaxi event. what they tout is the future of autonomous self-driving vehicles whether it will be a cybertaxi or an advancedment in a.i. for

the existing fleet and application to taxis the jury's out i think what is unveiled, we're probably still a long way from having robotaxis of any sort on the road, and the regulatory hurdles that need be cleared and the partnerships with uber and lyft and other ride hailing services across the world. >> i hadn't seen that episode. maybe i need to go back and revisit it carl, as we await the catalyst from the robotaxi event and the rollout in a couple of years time, obviously, the company is still an ev company operationally and fundamentally. i know it is still a big leader with the evs in the u.s. china is benefits from the ince

incentives is that enough >> it is certainly helpful incentives and government subsidies give in one part of the world apparend take away in other. the chinese subsidies have helped tesla in the last quarter. in europe, we had a reduction of subsidies and that hurt tesla. in short-term, subsidies coming and going will create stock price and delbumps in the deliveries trend i think out to 2025, will there be more evs on road? yes. will there be battery-hybrid there will be a mix. will tesla be a market leader? yes. will it drop to 10% will byd or xpeng do the same? that's unknown

all of that is tbd tesla will be a big player in the space. i guess to get confidence in the shares, you have to decide how big a player it will be. >> absolutely. carl, thank you for your a ana analysis moving on. u.s. prosecutors say former president trump was fundamentally acting as a private candidate when he lost in the 2020 election rather than acting in official capacity. let's talk about that with alice barr who joins us from washington >> reporter: good morning, carolin. this is just another curve ball for the curve-ball ridden presidential race. this reveals details against fo

former president trump special counsel jack smith is ta t tailoring the case smith's writing that the scheme to try to stay in office after the 2020 election loss was a fundamentally private one, private scheme casting alleged interactions with vice president pence at the time as political running mates discussing private acts and detailing allegations that after mr. pence decided not to stop the certification of the election results on january 6th, 2021, aides told former president trump he was in danger during the capitol riot and later rushed to a secure location smith said he looked at the aide and said so what a campaign spokesperson calling

this unconstitutional and accusing the biden-harris administration of interfering in the 2024 election. that has been his constant refrain that the legal challenges against him are, in fact, efforts to derail his path to the white house this year carolin. >> alice, thank you for that before we wrap up the show, a quick check of the equity markets on this thursday morning. the picture is as follows. the ftse 100 is slightly out performing why? in large part because we got tesco lifting guidance the biggest supermarket chain here in the uk we had dovish comments from the boe governor mr. bailey. he said the boe could become a little more activist on rate cuts if inflation comes in line with expectations. that has seen a bit of a re-rating with the easing expectations here in the uk. the dax is down 0.7% keep in mind, there is a public

holiday today. the cac 40 is under performing some carmakers are under performing the quick check of the u.s. futures. a negative start s&p off 0.4%. similar for the dow jones. we are not off from recent record highs, but fatigue in the market we saw the energy names doing better in yesterday's trading. adp came in a touch stronger than expected. we are waiting for the all-important jobs report tomorrow that's it for "street signs. i'm carolin roth e u moxtde xchange" is up ne seyotorrow bye-bye.

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it's 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here's your "five@5. futures are lower this morning suggesting the kind of bumpy start to october it is not over yet a strategy session for your portfolio coming up. oil prices higher as tensions in the middle east continue. and shares of nvidia are higher after optimism from the ceo. a differen