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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 3, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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because a lot of jobs have been added through health care over the years and starting to see that slow down, as well. you continue to see that slowdown here. >> and the labor force participation rate, as well, of the people who could work, how many are doing it? >> yeah. also keeping an eye on oil, the world and geopolitics, what's happening in the middle east that's going to do it for us at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight changing the game. an a.i. move from google could have major consequences for the digital advertising space. how it impacts all the players in the a.i. race and digital media. we'll get thoughts from perplexity's ceo. and trading poorly that's the chart master's assessment of one financial heavyweight. what is causing concern, and where the traders see it going from here. plus, counting down to tomorrow's september jobs report the stars dim for constellation brands as consumers pass and a
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second glass of chardonnay. and shares of hims and hers shedding some pounds i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with a new development that could transform the digital advertising landscape. google announcing several ways it is going to integrate ads into their a.i. search engines deirdre bosa has all the details. >> hey, melissa. this has always been the multibillion dollar question for google how can it on one hand protect its existing search business, which is still bread and butter, but keeping up in an a.i. world that gives you answers in a different way google rolled out ads on a.i. overview search how to get a grass stain out of jeans, and you'll get a step-by-step answer. below that, you get sponsored linked now, that is google's playbook leveraging its dominance in search to roll out a.i. features
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to a broader product and give marketers and merchants a way to still reach that audience. in this format, they're reaching users below the fold, meaning that users will have to scroll down to get to sponsored content. is that as valuable as one of the ten blue links at the top of a traditional search query still an open question as you said at the top, melissa, competitors are coming fast. perplexity, you're going to talk to arvin shortly google, though, still has the distribution, and at the same time, it's making search more compelling by powering its lens application with video and audio capability that means that you can put your camera at something, take a video, and ask something about it so, again, this is classic google playbook. it's got the technology, the distribution, the merchants to potentially be able to pull this off. critics, though, say it looks a little cluttered >> what is behind the decision
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of going below the fold, as opposed to side-by-side where the sponsored links would be seen right away? >> yeah, i mean, that's a different proposition for the advertisers, right are they going to pay? and that was one of the complaints, even before chatgpt arrived on the scene, is that people complained that google search wasn't as useful anymore, because you had to sort through the ten blue links and that sponsored content. so, i know people who are searching google search plus reddit to try to get the answer they were looking for. google is kind of listening to that, and it's compromising some what, but by putting the advertisers below the fold, that's a very big move this is google -- this is mobile now. we'll see how this evolves we don't know what it's going to look like on desktop, but what is notable, google is experimenting a lot more with its gen a.i. applications. >> so, we don't have any sense of the pricing you bring up the point, okay, you know, if you're below the fold, but still, the highest placement, do we have any sense
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on that relative pricing >> we don't have a sense of the relative pricing, but what we have been asking google, myself and many other journalists, is, is usage the same, right do people use a.i. overviews as much as they use generative, as much as they use traditional search and there is this thinking that as many people move to chatgpt or perplexity, that sort of cost per click would go down anyways. google says that they're seeing more usage than ever, and the ways in which they're making search more compelling, by adding multimobility, like lenses, through video and audio, they say more people than ever are doing these searches and they are bringing in the generative a.i., so, that might be a compelling proposition for advertisers, as well >> d-bo, thank you >> thank you >> and so, at the very beginning when we talked about a.i., we always thought about a.i. being a threat existentially to google in terms of its business model do you think this replaces that?
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>> it could. i mean, here's the difference, right? 80% of their revenues from advertising, right digital advertising. and a lot of folks would say this is the best business model that's ever been invented. you think about this, they're defending a huge moat. they're so depen denlt on that advertising revenue, at what point does advertising revenue kind of influence the sort of answers that you're getting? so, you have those sponsored links, the ten blue links below it, and most people would click on one of those top links and kind of accept that, right and so, your point about below the fold is really interesting i think they're going to see some degradation in their, you know, that advertising business, so, it really is defending their moat, i suspect they're going to keep kind of tweaking it and get it to a point that makes some sense for both the advertisers, the users, and google. >> two companies that have seemingly figured this out, facebook, absolutely, and walmart on the other side. no reason to think that google
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can't, either. a lot of stocks made their recent low on august 5th look at google it wasn't august 5th, it was actually september 10th. so, the cascade move we saw, almost a 30% move from the all-time high in july, i think, gets you really nice setup into earnings a couple weeks from now. karen can speak to this, but google, less than a market multiple here, with their balance sheet and the potential for them to leverage this is interesting. >> i think it's an announcement, again, if you look at the stock today, it wasn't necessarily something that people responded to ultimately, we have had this conjecture all along, where are they going to be and i don't think today tells you at all i think we're trying to understand how people are going to be searching in the future. you get back to the stock, and you can make an argument the stock's really outperformed all expectations in terms of that have been disappointed i look at the stock, i look at megacap tech overall, and i'm seeing the qqq, so, the s&p -- excuse me, the nasdaq 100 is
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outperforming the ze s&p. this is absolutely an environment where i want to own google i understand the stuff we're talking about here is a lot more important, but right now, google the stock is one i want to own >> it's a big position for me. very big position. i think this is good that they're doing something. we know, with the stock at 20 times earnings for a company like this, that there is fear priced in an their monopoly, maybe you don't want to call it that, but very secure position until search and so, i do think there are some things that, i mean -- google lens is actually a really -- i don't know if you use it, i use it all the time. i think that's really interesting. i'm not sure on the monetization, how that works like i asked her, and you were asking, sort of getting at the same question, what's the pricing on this new -- >> right >> right we know that those blue links, that's become a very muddled response >> uh-huh. >> that often is not quite what you want and, so, you have to do it again, or -- it's
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frustrating. so, i like that they're proactively doing something, we'll see. i don't know how to think about the government hangover of where that -- >> pricing >> when and how that will change things but i like that they're doing something, and i think that at 20 times earnings, you're not really paying that much to see what they can do >> we spend so much time talking about this ad model. google has seven, eight properties with over a billion users. they possibly have four with 2 billion. gemini might be a.i. for all of us, or, you know what i mean because if you think about how it's going to be imbedded across all those properties, that makes some sense to me, and so, maybe that helps that kind of notion that they're going to lose some market share in advertising, maybe they'll figure out how to do better with enterprise or productivity tools and the like. i'm with you guys. i wouldn't count google out. that's probably been a mistake for anybody that's done that over the last 20 years or so, but again, there's definitely some trepidation about some of
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these folks nipping at their heels. openai securing a $4 billion credit line on top of the $6 billion credit line it closed yesterday. kate rooney speaking with the cfo about all these moves. >> yeah, openai's deal was the biggest in silicon history microsoft doubled down on previous investments i spoke to sarah friara earlier about just how capital intensive this business is she compared it to railroad or telephone infrastructure back in the day. she said the next model is going to be, quote, an order of magnitude bigger and she's really trying toe strike a balance here. >> you want to go fast, and that means investment that said, you want to make sure you're growing wisely, so that you're not overextending in places you shouldn't be extending. to me, we are here to build a business model, and that means creating free cash flows so that we can continue to invest in the
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technology that we're bringing to the world we want to make sure everyone has access to this human level intelligence, to solve difficult problems so, think of profitability in the spirit of, how do we continue to grow that investment piece, rather than just profitability for profitability's sake >> sarah is a familiar face on wall street. she's taken multiple companies public, with us the ceo of nextdoor, but she said on an ipo, give them a little bit of time, don't expect any sort of public debut soon, mel >> why go public when the money's pouring in kate, thank you. >> no need >> kate rooney for more on the future of a.i. and advertising, let's bring in per perplexity's ceo arvin, welcome back to the show. >> thank you for having me here. excited to be here >> you are also thinking about introducing advertising in the u.s. sometime soon, so, when you see what google's rolling out, how do you sort of think about how you sell ads and where you place them
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>> yeah, so, our advertising is designed to not corrupt the answer quality, because someone else is paying for, or being part of the links. from the beginning, we figured out that, okay, people love perplexity because people are tired of sponsored links they just don't want to keep seeing that anymore. and whether you show sponsored links in the ten-links format, it doesn't matter. it's still advertisers bidding to click on their links, click bait, basically. what we said, let's keep the answers accurate and truthful, and let's incentivize users to learn more about brands through suggested questions. suggested sponsored questions. so, after every question, you get an answer, and below that, you see suggested questions to ask. and one or two out of those five suggested questions could be sponsored questions.
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only on queries where the commercial intent is very clear. so, for example, your original query could be, i'm looking to play tennis, i want to buy a racket, i'm a beginner, i want to know what i should be considering about, like, you know, the surface area versus the power, the spin, and things like that. you get an analysis. you get a bunch of potential brands and then brands like wilson or head could be like a sponsored question for that kind of query, right? and this way, you're not, like, losing the trust of the user, yet, you're actually allowing advertisers to get -- potentially for users to learn about very relevant brands the intent is super high that's the model we're going to try. very different from google >> so, in that model, you would make money from the advertising, would you get a cut of sales >> well, we first want to start with just the advertising business i think we're very interested in
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direct transactions and seeing if we can get a cut of the sales, too, but that's something for the future we just plan to test out simple display advertising and see how it works >> last time you were on with us six months ago, we were talking about your business model. you focused on subscriptions we all get that, that's a very consumer-facing product. now you're talking about ads, you kind of hinted to that back then what are some of the other revenue streams you guys are focused on i heard you say that google's issue, they've had this issue for years, is they're so dependent on advertising so, what are some other sources of revenue you guys are focused on >> yeah, i mean, we have a subscription model people can pay us $20 a month, and hundreds of thousands of people in the world are paying for that today and obviously, right now, we have the unique feature in p perplexity called the pro search, where it is able to break down a complex query, go into a trial research on anything you ask
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we offer unlimited pro searches, multimodal search capabilities but in future, i can totally see capabilities being part of the product, too like, for example, you are doing research on what to buy, and you just ask the a.i. to buy it for you, or ask the a.i. to book your flight, or doing your research on planning your next i have case. you have a.i. actually do the execution of, like, booking hotels and things like that. and those are all utility acts for the user that completely lends itself well to the subscription model at the same time, it's also a good way for connecting businesses and users together in the advertising model, too so, we are trying to merge the two together, like, one simple, clean way, without having to change the correctness of the answers. >> thank you for being on today. so, i understand you have the subscription, which is a different business, and the search how many players is there room for in search? >> yeah, so, i -- i almost think about it as the evolution of
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search like, search as we knew it, couple of years ago, until then, was just like helping you navigate to different parts of the web, so, you charge people based on, like, oh, am i paying for a keyword and getting the user to, like, get to my website? but now, think about it, five years from now, ten years from now, we're all going to be interacting a lot more with a.i. services, where we're going to ask questions, we're going to do tasks, and in such a world, like, the advertising model is completely going to be very different. and we want -- and that behavior is growing, right? like, the behavior of consumers, like, learning to ask questions, learning to keep asking more questions, and giving a.i. actual instructions to, like, go do stuff for them that's a new behavior that's beginning to grow right now on the other hand, the consumer behavior, just typing in amazon, netflix, reddit, tiktok, instagram, just, like, one or two worlds on google and just
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going to that site, that's a behavior that's been ingrained in all of us it's no longer growing anymore, that's why they have to slap in more ads, to keep the share price going up so, i can clearly see us doing really well in the next generation of behavior, and not having to worry about the previous generation. >> in terms of the next generation behavior, though, i mean, you mentioned how we all go to search engine, we type in something and it leads us to different places we go probably to google, we go probably to -- maybe to bing, maybe to yahoo! we don't go to ask jeeves or duck duck go think about all the search engines that existed back then how should we think about all the competitors out there now, and how that whist whittles down because it's probably a lot faster than what we witnessed with the original internet
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search players >> yeah, so, i think you'll still continuing to be navigating the different parts of the web, even as perplexity or chatgpt and all the other services continue to grow and are being used by people to, like, answer hard questions or write stuff or finish writing tasks, stuff like that but i think the real, like, change is going to happen once the need to go to, like, all these websites, also, goes down. for example, you go to amazon to actually go shop something, you go to -- you go to, like, a website to fill up your online forms or enter your details to pay back your credit card bills, book a flight. if these kind of fundamental consumer utility aspects are part of an a.i. app, where the a.i. -- you just have to tell the a.i. to go do these things for you, and it will, like, break it down and keep you informed along the way so that, like, you can correct its mistakes, if all that's happening in a completely
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different form factor, especially through voice, that sort of earlier navigation behavior is also going to take a dent it's definitely going -- not going to be the fundamental way people navigate the web anymore. but in the short-term, it's still going to continue to be the case so, that's why our success doesn't rely on google's failure or anything like that. just the core behavior of people asking questions and doing their research, that can succeed while people continue november gaiting the web, but the agent era of a.i. takes over, that's when you're going to see very interesting changes. >> before we let you go, we thought it would be fun to ask perplexity, what is the most ridiculous question you can ask the ceo on "fast money"? and it gave us -- >> did we do it already? >> we want to make sure everything was safe for family viewing. we got a lot of interesting answers. one of our favorites was this one. why not just be more like google
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that came from your search engine are you going to go back and scrub that >> i mean -- there are lots of things we take inspiration from google and how they build all these amazing custom uis for so many different inquiry types, like for finance, you just get a graph, stock graph, like, for weather, you get a nice weather across the week, you get sports scores, track elections across a heat map of the country. they've done amazing work on these things that we are taking a lot of inspiration from and doing a lot of things of similar nature here. but we don't want to keep wasting your time by showing, like, you know, five sponsored links or -- in fact, sponsored links on top, wasting your time sifting through links and reading stuff. that's the way we want to be different. >> so, maybe that wasn't such a stupid question.
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thank you so much for joining us great to speak with you again. >> thank you for having me >> that was a smart question, i thought. >> you should have seen some of the other ones not so smart >> if perplexity were a super power, what would it be? schumer her super hero >> i like perplexity it's an interesting product. it is different. >> are you worried >> am i worried as a google shareholder? i'm always concerned i feel like there is some concern priced in, though. >> why can't google ultimately switch to a similar model? i mean, it doesn't mean that the technology is the same, but i mean, he's explaining a fundamental difference, and why he believes passionately about the consumer-centric model and that's -- i'm sure consumers love it, too but it gets back to our conversation on, has google responded to the competitive threat, and every time we've, you know, we've at least started to draw that threat out there and the risk in the stock, stock's rallied back >> what he described in terms of
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agent a.i. sounds exactly what apple should be doing on -- >> what google wants to be doing. >> and what google wants to be doing, yeah. >> dan nathan has said a number of times, right, the bolt on a company like this for apple makes sense. for somebody who still has maps in his glove compartment -- this is just not my thing >> you are the guy who uses duck duck go. >> who is jeeves >> doing well, tim i've learned a lot >> i would just say, it's so early right now. i was out in san francisco, there were vcs, founders, they all know what per flexty is, we put 50 wall street people, though, in a room right here, i bet three people are using it. they have lots of runway here, and they are carving out a different place than that of google. coming up, a not so hot streak for amazon. the e-commerce giant on a seven-day losing streak. but it is primed to break its bad luck and one too many for
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constellation brands the spir wit maker dropping despite an earnings beat where they're seeing a n'go-back. dot anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.
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amazon shares on their longest losing streak since last september. falling seven straight days. down more than 6% over that period the weakness comes ahead of its big prime deal days sale which kick off on tuesday. that's when you want to buy all your charging cords and tupperwear what do you make of the losses >> well, i think it's a combination of people being concerned maybe more on the aws side that's really where the valuation is, i think, being driven so, supply/demand dynamics i think are things for the near term are still in question i mean, we saw that inflection two quarters ago i think it's range bound, but i'm not believing that, you know, this is the day that is going to determine the fate of amazon, so -- >> yeah. >> i agree i think -- if you look at walmart, walmart is near its highs, and, you know, the amazon retail business is doing very well, so that -- that should be a good valuation i agree, if you think about it lately, microsoft hasn't done
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great, google hasn't done great, so, none of the cloud providers right now are doing -- they've sold off a bit >> is the port thing good for amazon or does it mean anything for amazon i mean, i think the market's probably struggling with that, because i think you can make a case either way. with that said, like a lot of these stocks, they made their highs late june, early july, they've been sort of treading water since. they probably continue to sort of lackluster into earnings. but we've seen it before earnings on the 23rd or the 24th, this is a stock that can easily go up 8% to 10%. there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next a bottle of red, a bottle of white. maybe not. why consumers are pulling back on the pinot and how it impacted constellation brands quarter. plus, all eyes on the jobs report what tomorrow's data could mean for the fed's next move. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.
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welcome back constellation shares slumping. the beverage company reaffirming
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full-year guidance here to take us inside the numbers, brandon gomez >> hey, melissa. the company had a positive quarter, so what made the stock give up almost all its gains for the year let's crack into it. the company posted its $2.25 billion noncash good will impairment loss for its wine and spirits business the category continued to be down for the quarter net sales fell 12% beer here, net sales increased 6% investors, though, more focused on beer depletions that came in lighter than expected signaling a weaker consumer. standard data for the most recent two weeks shows positive growth for the beer portfolio, which saw a rough july and august signals of a turnaround there. the ceo seemed to affirm this on the conference call, saying summer weakness was a near-term issue, not to mention the holidays, which are the busiest season for booze, right around the corner >> are they losing share overall, brandon it seems like there are a lot of other competitors, people might
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be drinking less overall, and there's this big nonalcoholic push out there >> yeah, nonalcoholic is eating some of the market share you do have some companies like constellation trying to find partnerships where they can have those products as part of their portfolio, as well but then also, as you said, folks not drinking as much jim cramer talks about it, too, with glp-1 weight loss drugs, folks making a more health conscious decision the analysts i'm talking to, they see these as near-term impact, as opposed to long-term for the industry >> brandon, thank you. >> thanks, melissa >> brandon gomez this is in your portfolio -- >> it is not currently i do think that the pain that the spirits industry has been in, and i do own diageo, and some of the dynamics around wine and beer are very much felt across the industry. i think these numbers were fine. i think the '25 guide was put out there and reaffirmed the performance here is somewhat -- some concern about the product line i don't know that -- look,
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ultimately, won't constellation be taking part in nonalcoholic, as well, and some of the same trends to attract the same demo? they understand what's going on. there's been cannabis out there, other places where you've seen the spirits industry run into headwinds. i think you buy weakness here. >> listen, i'm protodrinking 10% of what i was a few years ago -- >> which is still a lot. >> i think the weakness probably has something to do with that. they might have to take a charge if it continues to go this way but you know, think about it, the trends against beer are huge there's a company like athletic brewing, one of the fastest growing -- >> nonalcoholic. >> nonalcoholic. and it's really good and half the calories of a light beer so, there's a lot of trends going against it >> so, lwine and spirit has had tough time they are buying a stake in french bloom, which is a nonalcoholic wine. >> right >> so, you know, you can't beat
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them, join them. own them >> nonalcoholic wine is grape juice, number one. i mean -- what's the point okay, fine by the way, beer wasn't the disaster, it was wine and spirits. >> sparkling >> sparkling since march, when it made an all-time here, series of lower highs, lower lows. to tim's point, valuation is fine i think you can get long against 240. >> i was coming out of a concert the other night on pier 17, we had a couple beers inside, you see a stand out there, they were handing out 12 packs of heineken i said, if they're handing them out, i'm going to grab one and i found out it was heineken zero >> nonalcoholic. >> and i was psyched it's a very good-tasting beer. all the other guys were too cool to grab a zero so, i grabbed a couple more. i got probably a case and a half at my house. look out big night. >> friends come over and drink it, sadly. you have friends, they just
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don't want the zero. that's all. we are gearing up for tomorrow's big jobs report how the september data will impact the central bank's next rate decision. and commodities getting crunched the sweet and bitter imports being hit the hardest, when "fast money" returns missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money. stocks falling today the dow dropping nearly 200 points the s&p down two-tenths of a percent. the nasdaq in the red, but virtually unchanged. t expectations are for a gradual slowdown in hiring, and a modest increase in wages. and before we get to the jobs report, check out shares of pdd. just flat, but there was very unusual activity in the options market, karen, which you noticed. >> yeah, someone pointed it out to me. right near the open, october 25th 148 puts. so, someone sold 9,000 plus at seven. that was the bottom for the day,
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so, i think -- some of it is sort of self-fulfilling in that whoever was on the other side of that trade needs to hedge that somewhat, but a very good trade. so, they're saying, all right, if i get put the stock at 141, fine, i'll own it there, anything other than that, i'll take in some premium >> and china gave back some gains. in terms of the jobs report, tomorrow, what are you thinking? >> i think the jobs report is less important today than it was before the ism report. i thought it was a really strong number i think there's different inputs to it, things that you can start to tear apart. the growth scare, bad news will be bad news. good news today in the ism knocked equities higher until other things globally brought them back down so, i think that jobs number -- the jobless claims number, do not correlate or corroborate that the job market is falling apart. an again, it's the participation
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rate that is moving higher the fed's made it clear, they are focused on the other side of the boat, which is the job market so, i -- i think it's going to be possibly net positive >> we got encouraging news, obviously, last couple days on that front we'll see if the rate moves tomorrow i'm still a believer that the unemployment rate is going to go higher but real quick, that pdd trade, just for context, throw up a chart. a month ago, this was a $90 stock. >> wow >> so, you think about the risk associated with selling puts at that strike, given where this thing was a month ago, i mean, that takes a set of what, tim? >> well -- >> stones? >> what did you say? >> i'm not going to say it again. >> coconuts. >> yep >> really quickly. guy said this earlier today. the s&p is down a little less than 1% from its all-time highs and the vix is above 20. and that's not something you would normally seep. so, it looks like people are kind of putting on some protection, doing the opposite of what you said in the pdd, so, i just think that's an
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interesting point. meantime, it is day three of the dock workers strike. one area that could be impacted big-time, the supply of all sorts of commodities we need cocoa, coffee, and more. cnbc's pippa stevens has the details. >> hey, melissa. we are watching sugar, coffee, and cocoa, because about 80% of the united states imports come through the impacted east and gulf coast ports, according to wolf research. now, we might not see an immediate or very large impact on sugar prices, given that only a quarter of u.s. consumption is from imports but for coffee and cocoa, that is 100%, nearly, and so, that's where we could really start to see prices rise. now, they expect to see even more pressure on these already strained supply chains, adding that stocks in the u.s. were rather low for both coffee and cocoa, ahead of the strike now, each of those are up sharply on the year. cocoa up 71%, thanks to disruption in brazil for coffee, and west africa for cocoa. and broadening out a little bit here, there is a lot of other stuff that's coming in through
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the impacted ports about 80% of per form and cosmetics come through the eastern gulf coast ports beverages and spirits at 80% 70% for vegetables and fruits and meat and fish. as well as 50% for vehicles, furniture, and apparel now, fresh fruits, though, is where we could see the first impact, with imports roughly half of the u.s. consumption 90% of cherries pass through those impacted ports, 82% of peppers, and three-quarters of our bananas. melissa? >> peppers meaning only the hot ones you're showing, or, like, bell peppers and other -- >> yeah, that one is specifically for the hot peppers. >> okay. >> but what's really important here is how long it lasts, because these perishable goods, they could not stock up on them ahead of time. >> pippa, thank you. she always knows the answers >> i snuck a hot pepper in dinner, it wasn't pretty anyway >> obviously, this was --
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everybody knew this was going to come, right? so, they've stockpiled a lot of stuff, but you can't stockpile bananas. >> you can freeze them >> they're terrible after that >> they're good frozen we digress >> dip them in chocolate >> guy, what are you into? >> anyway. anyway anyway >> you assaulted a couple of pieces of fruit before the show. >> we thought prices were coming down and now they might go back up >> you're going to hear a lot about the taft hartley act is my sense, so, stick around for that yeah, i think prices are going higher and you listen to the rhetoric around this -- they are dug in they're not going anywhere and they've said, they want to shut the whole thing down, break the whole system down. so, i take them at their word when they say things like that, so -- this whole commodity market, which has been underpressure, i think it's going to reaccelerate to the upside and yes, tim, i take down fruit every day. it's important i have, what is this, mel? clementine mel brings it for me every day
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>> a pear, i usually bring you, or one single grapefruit >> the more you know >> needs a pair. >> already hershey announced a price increase for 50% of its product portfolio starting in december so -- if cocoa still continues to be in shortage, imagine what that price would be then >> well, we've seen the cocoa spikes and seen the volatility in that, but in a lot of base commodity, if you look at the crv rind and other measures of commodities you're not thinking about every day, this is where you're going to see it the question is, how sustained is this? i would not be speculating on that my guess is, hershey's as a stock has different dynamics that was a stock that over the summer really got badly beaten up, like a lot of the consumer staples names. it's starting to look interesting. coming up, could jpmorgan be headed for a drop? what the chart master is seeing as we get ready for the big bank's earnings next week. we're back in two.
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welcome back to "fast money. shares of jpmorgan are trading poorly, this according to the chart master in a note out today, carter worth points out that the stock has been far underperforming the broader banking index over the last one, three, and six months, and he adds the stock will likely continue lower in the weeks to come. so -- earnings are next week karen, i'm sure you don't love to hear this >> i don't love to hear it, however, i don't love when jpmorgan trades really well into earnings that hasn't been a good setup. it's better, i think, to have a trade down into earnings and let's see what they have to say. i think the quarter is going to be good. >> i think it's fascinating to see what happens with wells fargo going through this earnings season, now they had that catalyst of having some of their caps and restrictions on them taken off the governance dynamics, the rerating dynamics, it was always cheap. i prefer citi and bank of america over jpm
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i think that's where you want to be in the money center bank space. wells fargo, that was a big move on that announcement >> guy, what do you think? >> deutsche bank just -- three weeks ago downgraded jpmorgan. but this is the same price that jamie dimon said they wouldn't be buying back stock 193, 225, 205, here we are it's been sidewaysideways i think price to earnings, it's not expensive. sideways action continues. >> what do you think of banks? >> bank of america could be an interesting one. we know buffett has been sitting on this one. we saw what happened when he stopped selling apple stock into the spring or so and the stock had one catalyst and it just took off bank of america has also lagged. that might be interesting into the print. >> do you think jamie gets more enthusiastic about the economy >> he hasn't been for quite awhile >> he hasn't, yeah >> but that's sort of a banker thing. he's been pretty consistent with that for a long time
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>> yeah, so no >> no, not really. he may say it's part of our business is good, we're doing this, we're doing that, but -- >> but in terms of the bank ceos that we will hear from starting next week, which one will you will be to most closely? i mean, jamie dimon, yes, but in terms of being an accurate forecaster >> yeah, i mean, i guess ultimately, i'm more interested in listening to real estate and commercial real estate, and again, what seems to me, and again, when we had jonathan litt on, he thinks commercial real estate is wide open now. there's a lot of people speculating that this is an opportunity. therefore, i want to hear about real estate portfolios, i want to hear where some of those headwinds actually may be lifted >> jane frazier, october 15th, i want to see what's going on at citi, which is very cheap, so, i think that's interesting and i have a question for karen, if we have time. >> sure, we have time. >> any update on the restraining order? >> oh. >> it's expired, but you know -- >> perfect >> trying to be cool >> one thing, about a month ago, a couple bank ceos talked down trading revenues, you remember
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that so, i think it's interesting you derisk that activity who knows what's going on there s coming up, shares of hims and hers down today. the news that had thnae mes moving more "fast money" in two
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shares of hims and hers health dropping 10% today after the fda removed eli lilly's drugs from its shortage list hims had been providing cheaper or compounded versions but the compounded drugs can only be manufactured when brand name options like mounjaro and zepbound are in short supply companies selling compounded versions could face lawsuits this was the bread and butter for this company, when you take a look back at the stock chart, when it announced it was offering compounded versions of the drugs that's when the stock took off now you're taking that part of the business away. is there anything left >> i would have thought -- honestly, this is going to sound crazy, i thought the stock would have traded worst than it has.
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see where we've bounced from i get it, it's a big move, but given the fact that recently, i think it was sub 15, the fact that we're still here suggests maybe the worst is in the name in terms of hims >> yeah, so, as our chief glp correspondent over here, i lean on a documentary on cnbc called "big shot. you spent some time on the compounding, and there was a skeptical sense of this. hims was late getting into this. our friend ro, they were doing it a very little bit so, i don't think it's going to have an effect on some of the other companies like ro, but more supply, probably means pricing comes down, which is going to be more users of these drugs, which is probably a good thing. >> right if you really wanted to read through this in a negative way, there is definitely one way you can spin it, and that will confirm what some of the analysts have said about prescriptions recently for the weight loss drugs and how they have been going down and that the uptick has not been as great and that should be a concern into this quarter.
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lilly, by the way, reports at the end of the month, novo at the beginning of november. >> yeah, i think that is true, and also, the delta on the new prescriptions is something that i think is also just coming in, and, but it gets back to me, the competitive landscape, and so, again, if you're talking about lilly and novo, what is the growth factor out in '25 and '26? and i know that they have other, you know, arrows in the giver, but for those stocks, obviously, it's been disproportionate >> just to hims and hers for a second 16 and change percent short interest i don't know if that means t that -- okay, there was some covering on this news and that's why it held up better, because i agree that it would have been down more. >> good point there. up next, final trades.
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it is time for the final trade. tim seymour? >> diagoe. if you don't like constellation, go diageo. >> karen >> yes, if there is a cre commercial real estate rebound, good for nyce. happy birthday to my husband, but i'm not changing my last name sorry. >> happy birthday. dan? >> cme group, breaking out of a one-year range above 220 >> guy >> happy birthday, lawrence. we have been fortunate here at "fast money" to have a string of unbelievable pages >> absolutely. >> elizabeth johnson, from san diego, california, is leaving us >> very nice work. >> so, she's been exceptional in every facet. >> yes outstanding. >> nothing but the best. >> yes
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>> talented. >> big shoes to fill and she did a great job. >> bristol myers, mel. i would look at this stock, see what it's done over the last few weeks. very impressive. >> and our thanks to elizabeth, best of luck in your next rotation thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playin field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make a little money for you. my job not just to entertain but to put everything in context so call me 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. investing isn't easy but it can be a whole lot easier and much less daunting with a littl

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