tv Street Signs CNBC October 4, 2024 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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e can help teens and adults make better choices. katie spielbauer: when something like this happens, it gives you purpose. and life has no meaning without purpose. ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs. i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines. oil continues to rise on middle east tensions up nearly 9% this week for the biggest weekly gain since early 2023, while president biden appears to suggest israel attacks on iran facilities are on the table. >> that would be tenuous
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we don't divide israel european shipping looking forward as the u.s. port strikes ends. and investors brace for the all-important non-farm payroll printout of the u.s. today. and openai reveals it has a $4 billion credit line in place after closing the funding round at the valuation of $150 billion. cfo sarah friar says the capital investment is intense. >> no doubt we're on a scaling law. the next model is an order magnitude bigger and the next one on and on and it does make it capital intensive
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good morning, everyone yes, it is friday. what a week it's been for the oil markets. i want to show you where brent and wti are trading today. 74.31 for wti. another pop to the upside of 0.8% brent up 0.89% at 78.30. that's the price right now i should tell you both benchmark are up by almost 9% and obviously this is the biggest weekly gain in more than one and a half years obviously, this is all on the back of the escalation in the middle east. we'll get to an update in a second here. i want to show you the oil majors and how they have been trading. bp is up another 1.2%. shell also adding on roughly .50% of 1% eu stocks are on track for the best week in six months on the back of the escalation
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oil prices rose 7% in yesterday's trade. that was the biggest daily jump in about a year amid political concerns and as president biden appeared to suggest the u.s. and israel discussed strikes on iran's oil facilities. >> we're in discussion with that anyway, we don't allow israel. we'll talk about that later. >> the fears of escalation comes as israel continues with the strikes seen overnight in lebanon. sky news middle east correspondent filed this report from jerusalem >> reporter: there were major israeli air strikes overnight. israelis were targeting a senior leader within hezbollah and was thought to be hassan nasrallah's
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succ successor. according to reports, he was in a bunker with other senior hezbollah officials when the air strikes hit. we don't know, not israelis nor hezbollah, have said whether or not he has been killed if he has been killed, it would be yet another significant development and it will also be degrading to hezbollah hezbollah are still fighting israel in southern lebanon the israelis invasion continue. the firing into israel this morning. later today, the iranian supreme leader, will give friday
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prayers. what the supreme leader has to say could be hugely significant. the united states, president biden, are trying to influence what israel does next. we think trying to persuade israel not to hit iran's nuclear sites. it might be an attack on iran oil facilities to do considerable economic damage that is what president biden hinted at yesterday. it saw the price of oil immediately rocketed upwards we don't know what it will be, but the israelis have promised a big response the americans are working behind-the-scenes to limit that was best they can do let's take you back to european equities. we are one hour on the trading session. we are modestly higher to the
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tune of 0.3% obviously, we are all awaiting the non-farm payroll reports out of the u.s. later today. we know the fed focuses on the job market and not so much on inflation. we are expecting a print of 190,000 for september. i want to show you what we are expecting with the big bourses the dax is natflat as a pancake. same applies to the italian market today is looking pretty positive i need to show you what comes to the european maurrkets over the course of the week it is a picture of risk aversion taking off some of the gains we saw on the back of chinese stimulus the dax is down 2.3 %. we are seeing the french market off 2% remember, we have the stellantis story and terrible autos
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environment story which is weighing heavily on the market the ftse 100 may be performing a little bit better because we got the dovish comments from governor bailey yesterday. i want to show you the sector gainers here and no surprise, oil and gas is up by more than 1% let's get more on the market moves with none other than dan scott, of vontobel dan, good to see you what are you telling your clients? do you rip up the current playbook as some investors are positioned for a year-end rally and you say expect for more volatility what do you tell them? >> thanks very much, carolin always a pleasure to be on the show with you. it is definitely an environment where you can expect more volatility right now, it's fascinating and observer of the markets is how much dispersion of you between
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views. if you listen to different pundits, you can get calls on oil from $50 to $120 on equities, you can get from un underweight to overweight positioning. no longer is the era of zero growth interest rates and low vol. markets are back this is the round for active investors. some will do well and some won't. we have been over equities for a year and we decided to lock in profits and neutralize that doesn't mean we're not bullish on equities overall. we just think index level valu valuations, at least in the u.s., have gotten ahead of themselves look at china. look at the markets where valuations are very low still. you can see there where equities are under and you can get
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meaningful pobounce backs it's very complex to have an aggregated statement i would say from here until the end of the year on a risk basis, i would say being neutral risk in a portfolio makes sense because, you know, there are ways to try and amplify returns from capital markets that are maybe a bit lower risk or visible given we have election risk going ahead and geopolitical risk right now. there's just a lot of question marks at the moment. >> so, you are pretty much neutral risk i have to ask you about the chinese stimulus this week, we're not seeing much of it with the european equity markets. a bit in the hang seng chinese markets are closed overall for the golden week. do you think we could still see higher on the back of this and would that make you more constructive on risk going
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forward? >> we have seen a good rally off lows for chinese equities. the csi is the better performing market year to date. it's gone from being the market everyone hates and no one wants to own and everyone tried to jump on the band wagon i would say at this point it's still a trade. the stimulus measures were impressive, no doubt also with targeted measures for the property market which is the most important part of the problems that china has that needs to be fixed. the property prices haven't gone up yet in fact, the stimulus measures are there to provide a floor if you want to see the chinese consumer to come back, you need prices to go up. that in combination with the problems, demographics and 20% youth unemployment and et cetera and governance issues.
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right now, it's a trade i'm happy i'm going to miss out on i'm exposed in the same way china is a portion of the emerging market, but i'm not going to take a tactical bet on chinese equities because of the stimulus measures. >> dan, we're waiting for the jobs report later on today and i have to push you on something on one of your views you held all year long. you were expecting the u.s. economy to do a lot worse than the rest of the market you foresaw a recession at some point. you have the view that the market has been too optimistic on the u.s. economy. when is the u.s. recession coming is it coming what i see is a robust picture. >> carolin, economists suc successfully predicted ten of the recessions a bit of tongue-in-cheek there i guess we expected to see a more meaningful slowdown in economic activity until this point. i could go through the reasons
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why, you know, the u.s. has been more resilient than we had expected, but at the same time in the defense of myself, while we had been expecting more of a slowdown, we were also still overweight u.s. equities so, we didn't necessarily marry the macro view with the asset class positioning view because when you look at u.s. corporates and corporate balance sheets and earning revisions, there wasn't a reason to be underweight there as a counterintuitive positioning we amendment to the macro position you can't have a spike in the consumer loan defaults like we've seen and commercial real estate with banks increasing the loan loss provisioning without expecting a domino into consumer spend and economic activity. we do expect to see a bit more of a consolidation of slowing of
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u.s. macro momentum, but that doesn't necessarily mean that asset prices will do so poorly at this point, it will be a short and shallow recession. >> dan, before we wrap things up and i let you go, i know you like gold. i wander if it is priced for perfection already what can you leave us with >> gold we have been overweight for a few years now. we are holding on to that one because we try the structural long-term drivers are in place india and south africa and et cetera stockpiling dpold gold ia long term story. whether it is harris or trump that wins the election, debts will increase. both of them
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from that perspective, dollar weakness is something you need to have in your playbook gold overweight is the way to play it. another way, of course, we play it is the long overweight in the emerging market debt the come senpensation i'm givenh the high yield debt are rewarding. more rewarding than the compensation in the risk i take in the high yield. it's a very unloved asset class although it is the best performing in fixed income this year otherwise, i would say liquid alternatives, especially in a multiasset class is very important. every multiasset class investor needs liquid alternatives. right now, bonds and equities
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are both going up and that positive correlation is fun on the way up when things get rough and go down, we don't like it when the two were correlated. you need liquid and this is something i know you like, caca carolin, insurance securities. >> dan, i can't believe you remember that comment 17 years ago when we talked about ils great memory >> i remember everything you ever tell me. >> oh, god not on tv. dan scott, head of asset management from vontobel thank you for your time. still coming up, port rks head back to work. we'll bring you all the details. that's coming up next.
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the agreement will see wages increase 61.5% over six years with conflict over automation still ongoing. let's get to jp for the market reaction which has been huge across asia and europe jp >> reporter: carolin, we saw the shippers surprisingly fall or flop for lack of a better term when we got the announcement that the strike seems to be resolved the higher wages might get passed on the shipping operators which was a worry for the operators here there was hope if you track shipping rates, it has been erratic and hospitpes to give a short-term boost we are seeing impact it on a number of shippers where you look in the asia pacific the marine transport shupipping
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and falling. nippon and tpx seeing significant declines it is also a similar story whether you look at south korea or hong kong cosco shipping shares declining and down 7% as we close out in hong kong with the likes of hmm also down 5% arguably the biggest losers today in asia happen to be in taiwan you have to remember the number of big shippers are domiciled on this island. evergreen marine which the operator of the vessel that clogged up the suez canal a couple of years ago, shares dipped 9% and wan hai lines and yan ming marine. this happens at a time when taiwan is coming back from the typhoon that shutdown the island
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the last couple days you are talking about another headwind for the island. this was the biggest sector in the asia pacific and the meager gains we saw from the bourses to nd end the trading week rough waters for the shipping operator across the asia pacific no matter where you look carolin, back to you. >> thank you we are obviously seeing maersk down significantly on the back of this. some of the shipping names would have loved continuation of the strike to see some higher shipping rates maersk off 7.3% and the other names also down across the board. eu member states are set to vote today raising tariffs on chinese electric vehicles amid competition fierce fears. arabile joins us now for a closer look.
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a lot of comments on the tape this morning as well >> we are looking at what comes off the vote you need at least 15 members to vote against it and see how that would change things as well. to give you a clearance of where the autos are trading in germany. you see the likes of volkswagen moving up 1.25%. 1% higher for bmw and stellantis here's the full story. the bloc imposes a 10% import duty on all vehicles the proposed tariffs and additional 45%, would be placed on top of this figure it then. it does come after a year long subsidy investigation into the chinese. the vichinese did retaliate in bringing their own brand in dairy and pork ports it would be hit with an additional 35 percentage points. what do we expect from the vote? the proposal will be implemented
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unless you have a qualified majority, that's 15 members, who vote against the tariffs it does represent 65% of the eu population at the same time, we had word from france, greece, italy and poland who would vote in favor of the tariffs we had word that germany may vote against the plan amid industry pressure, but we would confirm with word earlier this morning by hungarian prime minister viktor orban saying eu products would be difficult to sell if the global economy is split into who blocs we heard from the swedish trade minister who said they would abstain from the vote ultimately and said they actually reached proper communication with the commission with regards to special contingencies that would be made for volvo which has seen
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the share price manage to move higher as well this morning. so, so far, you have confirmed in favor of the tariffs with germany expected to be the third who may not vote in favor of the tariffs. the remainder of the region may move in this direction industry leaders voiced opposition to the proposal german manufacturing pressure be olof scholz to take a stand. bmw saying the additional tariffs would harm global companies and mercedes-benz chair says it is a crude investment bmw said this is the wrong approach speaking to cnbc, former wto general director pascal lamy said this cannot be the only thing left. >> what the eu is doing is applying wto if goods are sold
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at a subsidized price, you are allowed by wto rules to compensate this sub asidy with tariff and invest more into europe, including in transferring the necessary technologies remain to be seen, but to put it simply, eu does not remain the only big market open to subsidize electric vehicles >> let's remember for german automakers, china represents a third of their sales and has been vocal against the tariffs it remains to be seen what comes from the vote. carolin. >> i wonder what about the broader competitiveness of the
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european auto names? this might only do so much it is just fighting the symptoms here the bigger issue, really, is the lack of demand in the u.s. and overdemand in china as well. is this going to help? >> one wonders whether it will the automakers believe it won't. the politicians srnl think it will it's about trying to find a nuanced view here. what has happened is clearly europe fell behind in many ways, right? that was the key issue at play here because if europe had stuck with the process and actually invested heavily in production and invested heavily in distry p distribution, it may have done well certainly players would feel the impact let's look at tesla yesterday. they came out of deliveries. those were well higher at 6.4% year on year basis, but still lower than the market
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welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines oil continues to rise on the middle east tensions up nearly 9% this week this is the biggest weekly gain since 2023 while president biden appears to suggest attacks on iranian oil facilities are on the table. >> we're in discussion
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anyway, we don't allow israel. we'll talk about that later. european shipping stocks decline after u.s. port workers end strike action and return to the negotiating table. european equities open higher, but deep in the red week to date as investors brace for the all-important u.s. non-farm payrolls report. openai has a $4 billion revolving credit line in place a day after closing the funding round at the valuation of 1$150 billion. sarah friar says the funding will beintensive >> no denying where orders of magnitude matter the next order is magnitude bigger and that does make it capital intensive.
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good morning, everyone if you are just tuning in, one one hour and 30 minutes into the european equity trading session on this friday morning the picture on your charts looking pretty positive here up by a .25% of 1% in the early trade. if we look at the markets week to date, it is not pretty. the dax is off 2.5% this week. why? some of the autos under performing we saw a couple companies cutting guidance, but the geopolitical tensions we covered all week when it comes to the sectors here, what we are seeing here is the still out performer as much this week and seeing oil and gas very much taking leadership. i want to show you the markets one by one and this is what you're seeing here the ftse 100 is off 0.2% it did get a shot in the arm yesterday from dovish comments coming from the boe governor the dax is flat.
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we'll get out to germany in a second for a very exciting ipo and the cac 40 is up .50%. let's show you the sector gainers. i alluded to it before oil and gas is up there up by almost 1% in terms of the leadership when it comes to the sectors on the back of the 9% jump in oil prices over the course of this week alone with real estate higher to the tune of 1%. when it comes to the relative under performers, this is the picture you are seeing media off .50% food and beverage is losing .25% of 1%. t . this is the ipo. springer nature made its debut on the frankfort stock exchange. let's get to annette who joins us from the frankfort bourse we heard cheering when we got the first price.
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>> reporter: it is very positive here we are looking into a portion ipo. not a full-on sale on the public market with springer nature. it's roughly the story that bc partners and private equity company reducing holding to 36% and hold spring family publishing company is also holding 50.6%. having said that, the initial public offering here was very successful came in at first trade at 24 euro 50. well ahead of the issued price and that's why people did cheer a lot when the bell was rung by the ceo of the company to give you an idea of what springer nature is doing, they are operating in a stable and growing market they're depending on r&d in the
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world. that market is actually growing. r&d is sitting at $2.5 trillion u.s. only in germany, 121.4 billion euro was spend on r&d. that matters because springer nature is a publishing house which is concentrating on scientific publications. they have in total 13,000 scientific publications and 3,000 journals among them is well known for the public market "nature" and "scientific america" for the end consumer for main street there is a growing interest as well for main street according to the company to be informed about scientific developments. bring you back to the growing
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market bear market, which is of course, technical publications is at 12.7 billion u.s. dollar worl worldwide. it is expected to grow 4% each year perhaps that is one of the reasons the ipo was successful in a way you could argue a infrastructure business. it is stable and robust and not expected to be shaken by d geopolitical events or other events because the scientific market will stay in place. there's a lot of interest and the more money is spent on r& d, the more it has to be published. of course, springer nature is very well positioned to benefit from that. that's mainly the story of the company and why the ipo probably was very welcomed here on the market in terms of the company or the
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general ipo market itself, it's probably the last big ipo of the year it was a very sluggish year when it comes to ipos many are hoping next dwyear wil be vibrant with ipo activity this one is a positive example that you can do ipos even if there are uncertainties if your business model is robust. >> it seems like a very geeky business model, no pun intended. pretty good news for the pe sponsors looking for distributions for the lps. annette, thank you annette will speak to the ceo frank peeters at 11:11 london time. shein is preparing for a public listing according to public reports the retailer confidentially
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filed for a london ipo after the regulatory hurdles in the united states with the listing potentially taking place later this year. shein refused to comment on the plans when approached by cnbc. now, let's change tack positive sentiment is easing with a slight dip in the number who feel bullish around em prospects in the next three months however, net sector remains bullish according to the hsbc survey let's unpack the survey with more on the global head of research at hsbc thank you for bringing us that report what were some of the highlights to you >> thanks, carolin thanks for having me positive sentiment a bet and the bearish camp has perked up a little we're looking at the net sentiment. investors think for em prospects over the next three months and that net sentiment is pretty
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ro robust we also look at a risk appetite score. every quarter we ask investors what you think about the investing at this juncture zero is no risk em and ten is the highest risk and we take the weighted average which was 6.1 maybe 6.2 in june when we last conducted the survey if you bring everything together, investors have cash. the net positive is the sentiment and you have a broad risk they are all telling us they waiting for opportunities. they are looking for opportunities. >> so, net-net is slightly more bearish with emerging markets. i wonder why that is because we had uncertainty with global trade and political changes and year of elections for emerging markets and the big story of
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august is the unwind of the carry trade and that affected the higher yielding em which stands out to syou? >> you are right, a slight increase in the bearish camp i wouldn't overplay it the field survey after the turbulence in august in the markets and the field has care you had over until the 30th of september just around the time when the fed delivered its first rate cut in many years in the survey, we asked investors what is the biggest risk of the em and the biggest upside on the outlook? the downside risk is the risk of recession in major economies has made a big comeback compared to the surveys. it perhaps explains slightly, you know, more cautious, but i need to underline that net
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sentiment is positive. >> still pretty robust because you think the outlook for some of the ems, mexico for example, you would think with the trade perspective is pretty good because we are seeing the re-shoring and diversification of many supply chains. is that helping the emerging markets still two years in the big reconfiguration of trade >> yeah, we ask investors the regions they favor and what they favor less it has been latin america in 2021 and 2023 and the sentiment with all of the shifting and net sentiment was deteriorating a bit. in this survey, it's asia. asia is the top investment destination and most preferred region on the fx front and also on the rates and equities. there is a shift in sentiment
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with geographical interest, i would say. it has been latin america for a very long time and mexico features into it lately in the survey, it's eurasia. >> i had a guest on the top of the show and he loves emerging market debt. he added it is one of the most unloved asset classes. he did argue the yield you're getting is very, very juicy. why is it so unloved >> well, actually, we also like it our fixed income favors local income debt. it's a single cycle especially with those companies have been a laggard and now cutting interest rates. we have seen in the survey investors would like to move from short fx positions to longer duration local debt positions. you're right
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the positioning has come down a lot over the last few years. it was on the back of the aggressive tightening cycle and the banks and fed and reduction of balance sheet and kw quantitative tightening. now the fed is in the easing cycle and all emerging countries have been easing rates now there are some laggards starting the cut cycle and that is sparking interest >> thank you for your time coming up on the show, the weekend may be on the horizon, finally, but there's one big market event to go before you can put the work phone on mute we'll get you up to speed next
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now make it count. vote it. your opinions matter. your thoughts matter. so speak up at the polls and make your vote matter. openai has secured a $4 billion revolving credit line to take the total liquidity to more than $10 billion with the option to increase it by a further $2 billion. it follows the wednesday news it
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closed the latest funding round valuing at $157 billion. speaking exclusively to cnbc, sarah friar said building up the data centers for openai will be capital intensive. >> we have big aspirations of investing and what drives the technology it's compute first and not cheap. it's great talent, which is second and the more operating expenses of a traditional company. we want to make sure we're being creative and to the capital. to your point, sometimes that public markets and debt markets and structured finances there are a lot of things i need to get my fingers into over the next several quarters. no denying we're on a scaling law. the next model is going to be an order of magnitude bigger and
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the next one on and on that does make it verycapital intensive. it's a really different technology cycle than the last cycle which was more bits and bytes. this is more like telephone and electricity and railways you are in that capital insensitive cycle and that means, for us, we will have to be careful and smart about how we raise money as we gear up for the u.s. equity trading, the s&p 500 looking modestly in the green, but fractionally so. the dow jones led the losses in equity trade yesterday the nasdaq up 20 points. it is friday and we are getting the jobs report for the month of september. we are expecting a print of 140,000 jobs we'll get to discuss around that and the labor market in a
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second before that, i want to show you what the markets in the u.s. have done over the course of the week not as bad as what european markets have done. the dow off 0.7% on track for a 0.7% loss as well when it comes to the s&p 500 and the nasdaq off a little bit more than 1% for the week not too bad, but not exciting. geopolitical risk at play and oil prices have kept a lid on the losses some of the oil majors have done extremely well this week quick check of the dollar. the dollar is higher going into the jobs number. euro/dollar is 1.1029. sterling/dollar is 1.31. this as investors are looking ahead to the non-farm payroll figure expecting to show a slight uptick on august. let's catch up with our guest to talk more about the strength of
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the labor market neil, when i look at the ism services and jobless claims, i see the market bending, but not breaking do you think the figure will confirm that view? >> i do. first of all, thank you very much, carolin, for having me on. the labor market is slowing, but not slow you are seeing mixed signals with the directional trend getting weaker for example, today we'll -- the range is quite wide from 70,000 to 220 the consensus is 140 or 150. if it comes somewhere around there, the markets will be subdued. if it is the extremes, you will see action in the market >> we know the fed is data dependent and data reactive. we know it is on course for two more 25-basis point cuts for rest of the year
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let's say we get an out lilier d how important is the jobs numbers the next few weeks >> i think you should also understand next tuesday you get the fmoc meeting minutes that is another indicator. we get one more jobs print before the november 7th fed meeting which i would expect consensus is 25-basis points cut. if you get a huge outlier to answer your question directly, let's say the print is 220 at the high end, then you will see the market really have some difficulty and choppy waters. >> neil, what typically happens to hiring? is there a lot of postponement in terms of the hiring does it freeze or continue as normal what do you typically see? >> first of all, we're entering
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into a seasonal period where hiring does pick up a bit. that kind of counters the election a bit before an election, especially one like this, you will see people staying put i do think the only thing we know about the election because it is nip and tuck and extremely close. it will come down to roughly seven battleground states. it's the fact that in the -- in the election period, that people -- that senate will go to the republicans. not definitely, but no likely. that is the high probability if you have a kamala harris administration, there will be a check and balance. even if trump wins, the senate majority is 51 it's not filibuster proof. it will be hard for either party to get much done i think people are static right now before the election. the seasonal hiring well be something you expect no matter
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what happens leading up to the election. >> and much depends on what will happen through executive orders whether tariffs can be done through kpekexecutive orders neal, do elections matter? businesses have seen chaos the last couple years. they could argue we'll take whatever the outcome and we'll take it in stride. >> absolutely. i do think there's a couple of things one on the tariffs, i do think trump does pose that large risk of across the board tariffs. i suspect it won't be exactly that you do have that risk. kamala harris is more of the same which is where we are now focused on china and not much more than that i think the real thing that the election will impact is taxes. so, i think from the fiscal standpoint, trump tax cuts they put in in 2017, those expire in 2026 if trump's back in, he will have
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a mandate to tincontinue a lot those. if kamala harris wins, you will have taxes going up certainly on the corporate side and high earners and not necessarily for the middle class and low earners. >> neal, final question to you. when are the rate cuts starting to filter through to the consumer we have been concerned about credit card delinquencies and auto loan delinquencies. when will that show? >> we are seeing it in terms of consumer and durable goods those are lower. credit card delinquencies are higher than before covid we are seeing the lower end of the income range being effected by the higher for longer look, mortgage rates are already starting to come down. the 50-basis point cut starts to move the market. you no longer have an inverted yield curve. i do think the problem is the real rate between inflation which is 2.2% to 2.5% and where
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rates are at 5%, that real rate does take a bite i do expect the fed to move along, again, 50 basis points this year and 100 basis appointments next year after that, we can't tell. >> neal wilson, thank you. a quick check of european equity markets on friday morning. we're looking mixed here dax is close to the flat line. the cac 40 in paris up 0.4%. the ftse 100 is slightly out performing to the tune of 0.3% looking okay-ish today what happened over the course of the week is bleak. the dax in germany off 2.3%. the autos are a concern and the escalation in the middle east. the french market off 3.7% similar percentage declines for the italian markets as well. u.s. futures look like this. we are expecting a mixed start to the trading session in a fuf
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h few hours time it is jobs friday. the s&p 500 seen flat. the dow jones off 0.1% the nasdaq with a modest gain here very much sitting on the sidelines as far as positioning goes when it comes to the major u.s. markets a quick check of the oil prices week to date wow. this is a huge number up almost 9% when it comes to brent as well as wti crude on the back of the high escalation when it comes to the middle east that's it for today's show i'm carolin roth "worldwide exchange" is up next. have a great weekend, everyone bye-bye.
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