good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. futures getting a boost today from a blowout september jobs number, 254,000 beats even the highest estimate on the street unemployment down for a second straight month to 4.1, got some positive revisions, our roadmap will begin with the stabilizing labor picture, far more jobs added than expected, what that could mean for the fed rate cap

ahead. the port strike comes to a head, we will be joined by a key white house official that helped both sides get to that deal. of course, we're keeping an eye on evs tesla has got a debt sale, the eu slapped big tariffs on china-made cars and riff yen shares are under pressure. >> let's begin with the market reaction to this jobs report household survey, jim, up 430 wnd' say 4.1 employment, it's actually 4.051. >> it's a strange number because we do see the pockets of great strength, but the ones that usually come when things are slowing down, health care adds 45,000 jobs. i thought this was interesting the average workweek for employees is down .1 even though the wage increase is .4. maybe that's why people say this is a good number, good number for the stock market we are not having -- we are not having stagflation. >> go back to that for me. >> sure. >> because you see a number like

this, which is far ahead of expectations, the unemployment rate falls, immediately we look at the ten year. >> right. >> heading towards 4% again. >> right. >> and yet the market is up. am i wrong to have thought i would have thought futures might be not quite as strong and if they are as strong what's the reason >> i think you're right. i'm looking at -- there's so many anomalies here. health care, it's all right, but food services and drink up 69,000 i think people are saying, do you know what, the most recent wrap was that things were going to slow down and they didn't carl, i wonder whether there was any number that would have been bad. i mean, this was not a great number for the thesis which just says the fed is winning. it is a number that says the fed is doing it measured and, therefore, we are not having any sort of recession on the horizon. also by the way we did see rates go down off of what happened in the -- >> it's a larry fink number not

a jamie dimon number. >> said the economy is still strong. >> for a soft landing, where most recently -- i'm just taking a look here. the amount of easing that's in the forward curve is crazy and he believes there's room for easing more, but not as much as the forward curve would indicate >> well, look, i guess what we're set up for is so long as we don't have a recession stocks go higher. this is not a recessionary number at all. wage increases, i don't know, you think a wage increase like we had at the ports we're going to talk about, that's the kind of increase that is stagflation. i don't know how important the ports contract is going to be but we have to talk about labor. >> we are going to talk about the tentative agreement and what they appear to be zeroing in on. we will also talk about some of the automation and efficiency gains which the shippers hope to get. you mentioned wages, 0.4, a

tenth hot but also a tenth lower than prior. >> right i mean, look -- look, did i think that as soon as i saw rates shoot up that the -- the s&p would go up? that's very atypical and that's why i'm saying the anomaly here is pretty strong, david. you're right, if rates go up like this we shouldn't have a great stock market. >> well, it puts into question to a certain extent what you're going to get and when you're going to get it from the fed, or does it? >> by the way, that question will be asked how many times today in the next eight hours. >> let's not ask it. let's say this, we're about to have earnings. >> okay. >> i think -- >> i like it >> thank you we're about to have earnings i appreciate that. and it's kind of a friday tie. about to have earnings and what that means is we're not -- maybe we're not going to have a shortfall in earnings. we have it good job growth remember this new theory that david propounded just now, no landing.

that's the no land -- this is a no landing number. and you never go wrong quoting larry. >> larry fink. >> we are essentially at target on inflation and essentially at full employment. best economy he argues in his 35 years as an economist. >> if we stop playing the parlor game of what the fed is going to do and start thinking about earnings, we're going to have some good earnings based on these numbers because we're not going to have some sort of consumer shortfall, there is no way. there is no way. that's what i think we're reflective right now things are better than you think. against that the amount of money that's flowing into china, can we stop that already >> you mentioned that this morning. >> enough already. i love dave tepper, the panthers are just -- they're, you know -- but this is a number that is -- again, money flowing into china has pretty much, david, come from tech. this might cause a reversal because a lot of people feel that the hot money is the only guy -- the only thing that's

moving anything and maybe the hot money is drawn towards us. these stocks are actually down a dollar every one of them, since we got that number. isn't that interesting >> that is although, again, the last two weeks have been monumental for that market. >> monumental. >> if you go back over any longer period of time while the performance is still not great compared to our own, but that said you're talking about many stocks are up over 30%. >> nvidia was up 13 cents at 330, up 45 cents when frank holland was on, now it's up 2 bucks. nvidia is a counterproxy to china. that's hot money i don't like hot money >> but you like "some like it hot. >> nobody is perfect. >> delicious >> you went up and liberated it. he was in a blind fortress. >> the two month revisions up 72

k, three month average now 186 k better than some of the doves have been worrying about. >> no landing. it's a no landing number rick, is it entirely possible that people just think that no matter what they do we have peaked in inflation, but we're not peaking in job growth? it's never happened. there were some people that said it happened in 2001 and '3, it's not true. >> to your point about earnings they better come through because this multiple on the market is not exactly cheap. we're at 22 times -- >> it's not cheap at all. >> we are talking about 18 plus times for the remaining 493 s&p stocks, that's not cheap. >> you want to use peg rate? we have a market that's more than two times earnings on stocks. >> maybe it is -- maybe it is reflecting the expectation that earnings are going to be -- >> they better be good you're absolutely right. apple is the ultimate battleground, they sell at more than 30 times earnings so if

apple isn't great maybe -- but what happens before then are the banks, upgrade jpmorgan today. i think the banks are very reasonable banks are 11 to 14 times earnings you will start with the low pes and work your way toward the high pes i think we might be okay in terms of the cadence see where we are. >> wow, you seem pretty constructive given the pre-election shot people have been talking about for october. >> i was afraid we would have a bad consumer, we're seeing a lot of retailing stocks roll over with the exception of housing. this number says we can't count the consumer out, more than two-thirds of the economy. this number is extraordinary it's almost like larry fink had the number which we know he didn't, but this is no landing david, you can take -- you know, i used to have to go when i was a cub reporter to lax, my editor said, listen, you have nothing to do, living in your car, go to the lax ramp and see whether some plane doesn't make it

yeah, i know that was my job. but this thing -- if they don't land they can't crash. >> quite morbid. >> it was. but i was in kind of a down mode >> but if they don't land they can't crash. >> you heard it from me first. david, let me just tell you something, david, you look at your calendar, i look at my watch. >> excuse me. >> you look at your calendar and i look at my watch i heard that this weekend and i said that's about urgency. >> i see >> meantime, guys, you mentioned the ten year dollar is on pace for the biggest jump in about four months. oil, jim, we got to 7506 this morning. >> did you listen to biden in that q&a it wasn't clear that he really kind of drifted off. i wasn't sure whether he okayed or is looking at oil facilities. it's 4.2 million barrels from

iran, up 2,000 from the last year of trump, you take iran off but you know that the sawudis ae totally going to make upfor t guess people feel wait a second, this is as high as it's going to go i was going to go to david about the exxon pre announcement. >> i have you on that. >> why don't we talk about the nfl ownership. >> what about it no, i know, the paramount story, yeah i talked about that some time ago, the fact that when there is a change of control it can open up the agreement but the high likelihood is the nfl stays with cbs. that said, maybe they get some pound of flesh, maybe cbs is helping them produce some of the things on the nfl network. yeah, there is a story sort of reflecting that possibility today. doesn't mean anything. >> doesn't mean anything >> no, not really. what else do you want to talk about? >> i don't know, i thought that merchant of venice reference was

pretty good. >> went right by me. i will talk openai with you as much as you want. >> please do. >> sara fryer. >> a public company. >> do you think it will be -- it's $157 billion, they raised $6.6 billion like hat, a $4 billion revolver figuring out the structure not for profit to for profit i understand it going quicker than the two year period they've given themselves. >> i think it goes public. >> one day -- >> yeah, they have some really good executives. sara pryor is so good. do we have the coo >> yeah, brad is going to join me. >> how do you get that >> every so often i work urgency is perhaps more your area, but i still try to do something occasionally. >> existential thing with him. >> flailing. >> i am not flailing at all. you know what i am

>> no. >> i'm happy do you know why i'm happy? >> jobs number i think we all know why david is happy today. >> i don't want to talk -- look, it's a really big weekend so why don't you just keep your happy monday. >> okay. we will. >> we're going to have more on the mets, don't you worry. don't you worry. and their owner. >> bryce harper right here i'm putting it out bryce harper right here. >> this is going to be -- >> schwarber. >> the ultimate showdown between the two in the coming days. aside from the stronger than expected jobs number we do have the port strike to watch the workers are returning to their jobs today after reaching this temporary labor deal to end the strike, at least suspend it. our next guest was a part of those negotiations let's bring in the u.s. acting labor secretary julie su madam secretary, great to have you. >> good to be here thank you. >> a lot of tiktoks out this morning sort of looking at your

involvement and how you managed to keep this quiet can you talk about your role in all of this? >> well, i think the big story is obviously it's a big jobs day and the collective bargaining process in that case really worked we've been saying it all along, that when workers have a real voice at the table, when they can help to determine the conditions of their jobs, we are seeing really historic gains for working people we're also seeing it because we have such a strong economy you know, there's just more to go around. companies are making record profits are realizing that when they do right by their workers it's better not just forworkin people, it's better for their industry, better for their future, it makes the american economy stronger we're glad to see the ports back open and glad to see both sides back at the table.

>> there was in video of harold daggett mentioning that i will cripple you was the phrase he used trying to explain the leverage that the longshoremen had over the entire economy. do you think that colored perception of the union? did it move these negotiations in any way >> i think anyone who has been a part of these things knows that when negotiations are going on they can get heated. you know, people can say a bunch of things. the reality is that longshoremen play a very critical role in our economy and this -- you know, this negotiation helped to highlight that these are difficult, often dangerous jobs they are jobs that allow people to make a good, honest living, and this agreement is going to help make sure that that continues to be the case. >> madam secretary, jim cramer the difficult and dangerous jobs issue is why rotterdam one of the top ten ports in the world went unmaterial unmanned when i was out at nvidia this

year they showed me machines that would be unmanned that could handle any sort of what would have been otherwise a tragedy with humans. where are we in terms of getting to where rotterdam would be without laying off people and people who aren't currently working. >> that is part of a broader conversation around what is the impact of automation what do we want to see especially highlighted because of advancements in artificial intelligence i think that is the right question, which is how do we make sure that as we look at technology and, you know, those kinds of -- those kinds of improvements, how do we make sure that working people share, right? it's the same issue around the wages. as things improve we want to make sure that workers' lives also improve i think there are ways to do that you know, automation is going to be something that the parties continue to talk about again, this is why workers having a say is so important you know, when, how, whether technology is going to be implemented and, you know, what the impact is going to be on

real families. one of the signs that the longshoremen had on the picket line was that machines don't have families. we care and this president and vice president care deeply and the economic effects are, you know -- our records are clear on this when the economy does well we care what happens to working families and this is yet another example of how, you know, profits and prosperity can be shared. >> but the rise in automation in all sorts of areas in robotics of which we're really just at the beginning given the rise of generative ai, i mean, i know this is a long-term issue and obviously we're coming off a very strong jobs number this morning, but i do wonder how you think about it as the acting labor secretary. i know ultimately are we still going to have the need for as many jobs in five years or ten years as we do now given the rise of automation and the rise of robots, frankly, that don't even exist right now but will certainly be doing many jobs in a number of years?

>> yeah, i mean, i think every -- i don't know, like several years -- there is conversation about this. and, you know, i think one of the realities is that in many countries, you know, you mentioned, you know, the port in rotterdam, in many countries people aren't as afraid of what's going to happen with automation because there's so much attention to job security we care about our people and that's something that this president has made very clear in his executive order around artificial intelligence that we want -- when we look at ai -- to make sure that it is secure and responsible when it comes to workers, too and the specific issue of the ports and the longshoremen, the fact that they have a voice makes a really big difference. we're seeing that in all kinds of industries now. we saw it with the writers and actors, we're seeing it with hospitality workers where there is a union and workers can have input into what happens, the outcomes are really good for everybody. we're not going to live in a

world, you know, where real machines dominate. the other issue is sometimes that raises national security issues all of those things are important parts of the conversation. >> yeah, but you do need to get efficiencies if you're going to increase wages by 63 or so percent over the next five years. are your expectations that that wage increase is ultimately going to get passed on to consumers? >> well, i think that it's a false choice to say that either working people can do well or consumers can have things they can afford and we have seen, again, in this economy where jobs have grown, real wages have grown, inflation rates and interest rates are coming down. that we can build an economy where everybody gets a piece of t everybody gets to share in the american dream that is fundamental to the economic policies that we have -- that we have pursued there are choices that are made all the time, including by corporations, many of whom do a great deal to benefit our economy, but having to say if

i'm going to share the tens of billions of dollars in profits with workers means that i'm going to have to charge more for my product is not a choice -- is not the only choice. the other issue here s you know, monopolistic behavior. this is why we believe we shouldn't have big corporate monopolies because people should have a choice. choice, competition, helps to ensure that prices also stay fair so that's why we're so committed to, you know, saddling inequality on all fronts. >> there was an amazing piece, madam secretary, in the baltimore sun yesterday looking back 50 years ago when the dock workers were protesting a different kind of innovation which was the shipping container. and then there was these comments made by the union president not long ago about -- sort of lamenting the advent of the easy pass and all those lost toll worker jobs i guess are you convinced that organized labor won't be too much friction on innovation?

>> absolutely. i mean, there is no reason to believe that either unions or working people themselves do not believe in innovation, right in fact, some of the best innovation we have comes from workers who are doing a job and recognize how it could be done better, how it could be done faster, productivity in this country is up, that's part of the story of the strong economy. and so, again, workers have a seat at the table which is exactly what's going to happen as the ila and the usms come back to the table, has demonstrated time and time again that it's better for everybody and that is why, you know, the president has been so clear that we support workers having a voice, we support the outcomes that are happening and we believe in shared prosperity >> madam secretary, on another day we would be talking more about the jobs number, today but this is big news we really appreciate your time thank you. >> thank you so much >> acting labor secretary julie su. take a look at the premarket here more "squawk on the street" continues on this friday after

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take a look at some premarket gainers on the ndx you see some tech in there, specifically semis as that jobs number is giving a boost to equities overall if you missed it, 254k is the best jobs print since march. opening bell coming up in six minutes. don't forget, catch us anytime anywhere, listen to and follow the "squawk on the street" opinbe pca eng llodst

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all right. we've got a little less than three minutes before we get a ienl opening bell for the week here of course, get started with trading here on this friday. let's talk a little rivian, jim, because the company stock is going to be down after they pulled in production numbers a bit, citing a shortage of a shared component on the r-1 and rcd platforms. >> the reason i thought that was interesting, they were going to do 50,000, maybe 52,000, looks

like they're going to do 47,000. it doesn't sound like it's a demand problem, sounds like it's a part problem the reason i point that out is a demand problem at ford is bad, man problem -- i'm talking about ev not hybrid. david, evs everywhere are under this turmoil europe just put through -- you've got these tariffs. >> tariff on the chinese evs. >> i want to believe that rivian is right, i believe they're terrific, they got the time with amazon i want be to believe they're right that it's a part and not a demand this sector away from tesla is shear hell right now. >> they reaffirm their annual delivery outlook of low single-digit growth as compared to last year, jim. again, a range of 50,000 to 52,000 vehicles, but to your point they revised the annual production guidance to between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles this problem i just mentioned has they said become more acute in recent weeks and continues.

>> it just -- i need mor information because nobody else has a spot problem one of the things i thought was great -- one thing that's gone is the whole supply problem with the semis, maybe this is another part these guys are not in a position to miss. they are just not. the stock has been one way ever since they got the number from vw doesn't seem like a good shift in the ev game. >> next week we're going to be talking about the robo taxi. >> it's so huge. >> and how important that will be for tesla and their future. >> the robo taxi i think is so significant because it's beginning to get a lot of traction in a lot of different cities when that happens i think people will realize it's much cheaper than uber. so if you are willing to take the plunge, you can save 30% on uber, which is pretty -- if you get a wamo i know when we looked at our uber app and wamo app when we were in san francisco, just go for the driverless.

>> although the -- the bears will point out wamo is operating in the real world, tesla is doing this on a movie studio lot. >>. [ bell ringing ] >> let's get the opening bell here in the cnbc realtime exchange the big board, it is the american cancer society marking breast cancer awareness month at the nasdaq celebrating an ipo it is bing x a courier services provider in china. >> i wonder if tepper is buying that opening, tepper being the legendary buy everything guy he has been so right. >> he has been dead right when it comes to china and that morning, it was a seminole discussion with him, the "squawk box" crew had with all that stimulus that china has been putting in i want to come back to what you were just talk being in tesla. >> sure. >> what is the rise of the robo

taxi if it finally is here or very near mean for uber? >> well, it depends. >> ultimately? i mean, when you look out and you do a five-year discounted cash flow, whatever you want to call it on uber, and you think about tesla's universe and if they're really successful in creating an opportunity for people to get a tesla taxi whenever they want, is uber also going to be a beneficiary or what is the role for them -- they don't own the cars. >> no, but four weeks ago they did do the deal with wamo and the big -- >> yeah. >> the big thing is austin now and atlanta. those are the ones -- atlanta is really out of the range. atlanta, by the way, can we just say chuck robbins, congratulations. falcons, big but i just think that these are the two test cities because they are out of the cloistered cocoon and wamo -- and we have to get

darrell on this. >> we will darrell on the day of the announcement. >> this is really important. i think that this is the battleground and i think that all that's going to happen is you're going to hear great things from us, not as good as what they have with wamo, but wamo has so many miles that they've gone without any sort of terrible accidents or anything. >> although tesla has got more data than anybody given the billions of miles that have been driven by teslas, right? >> and tesla has got -- we saw the other day in that great interview on jon fortt's show with jensen wong, the actual platform that you ned the demand is insane. >> it is the word he used. >> for what, jim >> for the platform, the next generation platform, is the platform that i know that elon musk wants and i know, by the way, that, geez, the second richest man in the world mark zuckerberg really wants so it

matters a great deal. >> you can never count musk out, that's for sure. >> i'm not -- >> not that anybody is. >> no. no >> when it comes to -- >> no, you are not counting him out. >> xai and what he's doing there as well and obviously the new iterations of self-driving it's going to be very interesting event next week. >> are you going to go down? >> no, i don't think so. >> okay. >> you know, we talk so often about autonomous driving here and i've made this point many times when five years ago i said it's coming guys, or seven years or eight years ago finally when it gets here you may not be paying as close attention any longer to the point of where wamo -- i mean, would you rather get in a wamo without a driver than an uber with one >> absolutely. >> right it's going to be safer, you're not going to have somebody looking at their phone or anything else. >> my very critical wife, i will leave it at that, but we missed a dumpster by an inch when we

were in wamo and she said i would have made that three inches i said, well, so what? we didn't miss it, why do we need your extra three inches. >> you mean you didn't hit it. >> she was like i would have three inches further away. i said is that really what it comes down to why you want to be in an uber she said i think it made the turn very wrong. >> bernstein said last month if it weren't for ai in the headlines 2024 would probably go down as the year of autonomous vehicles. >> i think it would be look, they're everywhere when they're there, unless you put a person in the trunk, they have cameras everywhere. do not put a person in the trunk. we found out that that was ill-advised. because they only handle -- the thing is, david, it's really a four-person vehicle. >> i don't plan on getting in a trunk. thank you for that warning. >> have you seen "wolves" yet.

>> with clooney? >> fantastic they had someone in the trunk. wamo would have stopped, whole movie would have been off kilter. >> utilities the only sector lower. 1% gains in a consumer discretionary. amazon yesterday we mentioned down seven straight days. >> i was shocked amazon stock is still so far above where it was when it had the so-called bad quarter. look at a stock like marvel, they do optical stuff for data center look at this, we've moved micron after a couple days of digesting the incredible gains, right back david, people do not want to write off techno matter what especially going into earnings. >> why would you >> why would you you just heard carl, if you don't believe -- well, generative ai, maybe enough is enough >> enough is enough? what are you talking about

enough is enough >> i'm saying the stock -- >> openai is private company just raised more money more than any company ever has. >> what bank has done the most with sovereign security and with gen? >> jpmorgan. >> is that why it's up 4.6 >>.$4.60 >> i don't know. >> i was just trying to agree with you about something. >> what does that have to do when we are in the earliest days of ai. >> when jensen said that demand sin sane for blackwell, that lasted for about -- we had a little bit of gain, a little bit of bump. >> yeah. >> today we have a bigger bump it's like the interview occurred yesterday. crazy. >> given what is yet to come -- what is just beginning to come in terms of the need for compute from these large language models, it's not just the training which will come to an end at some point or at least

slow down because basically you've taken in all the data available. you have synthetic data, but the running of the models themselves, the inference, is using enormous amounts, even with the increase of efficiency with every new version of chatgpt, for example, enormous increase inefficiencies but it requires more things that require more computing. >> a lot of people feel enough that nvidia stalled, that super micro was the worst performing stock in the s&p last quarter. >> maybe it gets back to the endless conversation we have for good reason here about data centers and power and that being a negating issue. >> i saw ge for nova downgrade today. >> my point is that it may not be that the need is not there for the nvidia chips or the need for the compute but the ability to construct it as quickly as possible may be more difficult. >> did you think the accenture deal was a big deal with nvidia?

>> i don't have an opinion on it. >> you needed it to be not just hyper scalers. you can't build a business -- and they are not by the way -- around just mark zuckerberg and elon musk. i liked the deal because it said that the large companies that don't know how to use it are going to go to accenture and accenture will fill it out or they will go to dell or hp there's other companies that may want to buy them, not just -- not just met ata and not just tesla. >> we did mention yesterday in your absence, though, executives at chip companies selling about $1.3 billion in stock in the quarter. >> look, they've made a lot of money. people sell for a million different reasons. if they didn't sell and you were their adviser you would say, look, i think i should resign because i have so much money in these. that's my only explanation, otherwise why not let it ride? these people have such huge

gains. they could be saying capital gains rates may be going up if one of the two people gets in, has a democratic house and senate, capital gains going way up >> wait. if a democrat wins the presidency. >> if vice president harris gets in and the house and senate go democrat, she needs that, then i think the idea of the capital gains tax will be this low would be fanciful. >> that seems an unlikely scenario right now, doesn't it >> don't trap me. >> i'm saying that the likelihood that you're going to get one party -- i mean, it happens all the time -- >> you know, i've become wiser in my last three months. i'm not answering that whatever i say something gets picked up like he says he's a republican or he says he's a democrat. >> the likelihood that the democrats will hold the senate, win the house and the white house, that's a fairly low percentage chance. >> depends on bucks county, pennsylvania. >> that's it >> bucks county, pennsylvania. that is the county it's 50% demes, 50% repubs

pennsylvania is the state. it's the spring county in the spring state. >> explains why obama is going to pittsburgh in the coming days on behalf of harris. >> pennsylvania is so important. i tried to reregister -- i mean, like, yeah, it's impossible. i think i have to buy a piece of the eagle to be able to reregister. >> we have -- >> which i would make some changes. >> trump is going to pennsylvania as well. >> butler. >> guess who will be with him. >> elon musk. >> elon musk. >> that's going to be something. are you going to be there? >> no. i'm going to be busy at the robo taxi day no, i'm not going to that, either no, i will not be at that -- jim, i don't cover politics and in fact i'm happy to move away from it right now. >> i do want to say that that's going to be -- of the things that i've been interested in my life in politics, i got to see jfk in pa in the big race against nixon. this is it >> trump in butler >> trump with musk

insane >> you're not going to be there. >> i'm glued to it i'm glued to it. i said i got to see jfk, i'm not saying -- i got to see jfk. >> i worked for rfk. >> you were very young. >> i know. >> i mean, you're not that old. >> do you think people will say because i worked for rfk therefore i am working for harris even though it was 172 years ago. i worked for buchanan. >> people listen to the things you say, jim. >> buchanan was from pennsylvania i worked for buchanan. >> we mentioned insider transactions, we did get some at love, $100 million in stock. speaking of airlines, jim, the journal on spirit exploring bankruptcy after that jetblue deal did not happen. >> look, first of all, over 30, now it looks like the pressure from elliott is all working. what you have with spirit, what you have is the problem that you have with rite aid when they block deals and one of the two

parties is too weak, then what happens is your pricing goes up and that's -- because they allowed so many airline deals they didn't want to do anymore. >> it really does raise that question of, you know, again, you're trying to prevent any competitive behavior, but sending one company into bankruptcy is not necessarily the way to do that. >> no, it's not. >> would jetblue and spirit represented a better competitor ultimately you would have to think perhaps yes if one of them is basically -- now, again, they're reorganizing they're not liquidating. >> they're not liquidating. >> but it's hard to imagine them being a particularly well -- well capitalized competitor. >> let's put it this way, i flew when my wife was a snow bird, moved to florida, i flew and pitted these two against each other constantly it was unbelievable. i would fly to west palm because of the competition. >> you flew spirit air >> i flew jetblue but their prices were brought down by

spirit. >> spirit, they charge extra for a seat. >> it's like subway. >> remember people express >> i do. >> it was $29 to boston. >> i was in school then. i used to get home on -- yeah, it cost 29 bucks >> yeah. i am saying that jetblue was remarkably cheap and i felt that that was in part because they were up against spirit in west palm and fort lauderdale. >> united is the top s&p gainer, norweigian is in there in the top five. >> i saw norweigian with the price bump the cruise ships -- i like viking by the way, not viking therapeutics, i like the cruise line. >> i mentioned openai a couple times. sara pryor joined yesterday. obviously the change from a not for profit to a for profit conversation which as i said earlier is going to happen in a far shorter time frame from what i am understanding than the two

years they've given themselves there is still that question as to getting to actual significant profitability at openai. it is going to reach $10 billion in revenues perhaps faster than any company ever has, but what about the margins associated with those revenues? pryor did discuss the focus on free fash flow at the company with kate. take a listen. >> to me we are here to build a business model that means creating free cash flows so we can continue to invest in the technology that we're bringing to the world which want to make sure everyone has access to this human-level intelligence this solves difficult problems so think of profitability in the spirit of how do we continue to grow that investment piece rather than just profitability for profitability's sake. >> and still questions of course about the margins, not the revenues. >> the revenues are so great. >> jim, i will sort of end here with the apple deal and whether and how significant that will be for the company. >> right right. >> how it is embedded to a certain extent in apple

intelligence, as that rolls out. i've talked to some people who have been beta testers for apple intelligence. >> really? >> they seem somewhat impressed with what it can do. you knew, how openai will get compensated for chatgpt inclusion in apple intelligence. >> ceo tim cook has been -- i would almost say cagey jim cook told me i don't even know if we're done making deals. they could make a deal with google, too. >> made a dig geel with google. >> i'm saying it's possible that they do more ai deals than just -- than just this one >> yeah. but i think you're right, one of the reasons why i've been so bullish on apple for the 17 and later 16 is don't you want to try it before you buy it see how special it is? >> try -- >> the -- you know, the ai compute. >> the apple intelligence? >> yeah, don't you want to try it >> how do you try it without buying the new phone. >> the beta test.

>> what are they saying? >> they said it's very good at summarizing emails. >> do you know that i asked tim cook to be able to make it so that when you put in fantasy players -- because the nfl football players -- can we please have it so it doesn't spell check and automatically get them wrong all i can tell you, i don't know if he listened to me, but, wow, is it good for fantasy this year 55 million people play fantasy draftkings had an upper bump today. even espn does better under draftkings, the relationship with fantasy the spell check was just -- >> okay. i'm way out on a limb on this. i'm going to pull back. >> everything comes back to football for him everything. >> do you know what everything comes back to for me >> baseball. >> yes, the new york mets. >> i thought it was interesting that the spell check is better >> do we have time in the broadcast to just talk about -- >> yeah. >> you sometimes wonder why you are a sports fan when you root

for the knicks. >> are we really running a clip -- are we really running this >> and then there is this moment and you no longer question why you are a sports fan and why baseball is still a magical sport. >> why are we running this clip? >> because it was incredible it was incredible. it was the top of the ninth we were down 2-0. >> i turned you off when you were down 2-0. >> alonso has been doing nothing. that's why francisco lindor, best player. >> are you not going to musk because you have world series tickets? >> not yet but i'm working on it there's steve cohen who comes into our world, there he is, got the goggles on >> i'm going to boycott -- >> there it is >> have them on monday when you come in, when i have bryce harper sitting right there. >> best of seven, baby we will see what happens the phillies are a great team. >> thank you for that, but --

thank you fo for that. >> it has been 1986 since we last won the championship, 1969 for the jets, 1973 for the knicks >> notice he said "we. i didn't know you played >> we, the city. >> that you are not a part of essentially even though you've lived here most of your adult life. >> my mom loved the phillies, that's enough. >> that's your hometown, man. market hanging in there, dow up 270, s&p maybe half a percent from all day intraday highs, watch bonds as well. ten year did get to about 397 or so knocking on the door of 4 on the back of that barn burner of a jobs number today. we will be right back. stay with us market hanging in there, dow

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thematics for the week you would think about energy and china and the gainers. diamondback and pdd. by the way, oil trying to put together its best weekly again in a cploue years. dow up 266 stop trading with jim is up next help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

. let's get to jim and stop trading. >> stop trading the same as the guest we have tonight which is constellation brands the maker of modelo, and carona which did slip and there's a huge dichotomy of people who believe high-end spirits can come back or not, and i'm glad that i have bill newlands on the reason i'm glad, boy, we're looking for consumer packaged good companies that can thread the needle of glp-1s trying to make it so they're more experiential and we also have -- there's a very -- this index to hispanics, there's a big decline in immigration recently, and there's so much in play but the most important thing is, the tariff if trump wins, will the mexican tariff hurt these guys i'll talk to bill newlands about all these things i think it's incredible if you put a tariff in a mexico beer

then you start talking about is the working person's beer costing too much number one beer. >> that is part of harris' messaging. tiktok videos about the tequila tax. >> this is all very -- what do you like doing -- >> tequila attacks >> the agave. >> mezcal. >> worried about waymo. >> the "60 minutes" piece on mezcal. >> she sent that to every -- that was sent to mars, that was sent to everybody. wasn't anybody left out. i wanted to go back on the labor issue and we were trying to push the acting secretary on automation because that is the existential -- we have to be competitive, and i want to bring it up only because you, and i asked, and i did not get a satisfactory -- >> it's a hard question to answer nobody wants to answer it. >> it's front and center. >> it is. >> that's what machines are meant to do as jensen huang

said, anything we can do they can do better. >> nice reference. >> thank you very much. >> saturday are you going to be sitting there watching your phillies lose to my mets >> i was -- yeah kind of. >> five games, by the way. got that wrong >> bryce harper will be sitting there. or maybe -- i don't know -- maybe i can get wheels for you one time. >> lenny dykstra >> no. wheeler. not lenny. now you're getting me in trouble. >> good luck, gentlemen. we will see you this weekend "mad money" tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time >> play for us it's true. >> goldman's jan hatzius on the jobs number. don't go anywhere. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises).

hand over the air guitar. i've got another one.

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it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker, david faber here at post

nine of the new york stock exchange sara eisen has the morning off markets trying to hold some gains here after coming in awfully close to all-time highs on the back of a strong jobs number 254k above the 150 we will go into details about wages and participation as well. >> lots to get into. 30 minutes into the trading session here are movers we are watching this morning. shares of rivian dropping. the ev make cutting its production guidance due to a parts shortage expecting to produce between 47,000 and 49,000, down from frprior guidae of 57,000. rivian did reaffirm its target for the year, the shares down nearly 7%. most of the china stocks bouncing back from yesterday's losses up from 30 to 60% in the past one month alone oil continuing to move higher after president biden said he's discussing israeli strikes on iran's oil

refineries oil up 10% in the past week. let's get to the latest jobs numbers. job growth coming in stronger than expected beating every estimate on the street by a wide margin our senior economics reporter steve liesman is here. >> i didn't know that. there was nobody that high. >> the range was 220 on the high end, 70 on the low end. >> this is an extraordinarily strong jobs report eases fears for now of a weakening job market today's numbers were higher than -- now i know -- all of the estimates and the trend, the weakening trend that was out there and included robust upward revisions to prior months. the numbers 254. the average was 150. july and august revised up by 72,000 because the revisions had been generally negative going into this report unemployment rate falling to 4.1. average hourly wages 0.4 versus 0.5 in the prior and then year over year is 4% versus 3.8%. where the jobs were, we've seen this before, leisure

hospitality, which had weakened a bit, now plus 78,000 health care and social services never lost its strength up 72,000 government 31,000, construction, a lot of that may be linked to the government infrastructure projects that are going on because a lot of those in specialty trade and contracting and then retail having a strong month up 16,000. the impact on the outlook for the fed for the rate cuts was to strengthen the existing market the next move would be 25. you can see right there, the probability of a 25 cut in november rising to 94% from 65 and the market shifted this is a shift for december now seeing -- it had seen a 50 as likely, now there's a 68% probability of just a 25 in the month of december from 34 to 71%. and then the outlook for rate cuts over the next year, the yield is 3.36, higher now, the amount of cuts they baked out essentially. you can see there 50 basis points in cuts have been baked out since the end or since

september there. so the result of the strong report, taken with the revisions, it's not to say that the fed is not going to cut, the fed is expected to cut, believes it's too restrictive to its dual mandate of low unemployment and stable prices. the result is to reduce the speed of rate cuts and amount. back to you guys. >> steve, what is kind of on deck in terms of different data points or different things that could change the calculus here between now and the next jobs report now and the election? >> another jobs report before the next meeting there is an election that comes and i don't think the fed is going to preem torely make policies for what policies could come from the election because you don't know what would pass congress i think the thing to watch now is, the thing to me that is not inflationary about these large jobs numbers, we kept the

utilization of labor the same. we had the number of workers for the number of workers who were hired, and we're not seeing a lot of upward pressure on wages. wages are a touch higher but maybe there's productivity that explains that, productivity by workers. we watch the impact of the hurricane, we will watch the impact of the port strike. i don't think that union wages are as impactful in terms of setting wages across the economy as they used to be so that's something to think about. finally, watch the consumer. if the consumer continues to do well, the economy will >> interesting and then, of course, always that risk of geopoliticals or some kind of black swan event out there. >> good point. yeah. >> steve, thank you. >> sure. let's talk more about what the latest numbers mean for the fed and the markets. jpmorgan asset management chief global strategist david kelly joins us on set at post nine maybe you can level set on what you think the jobs report means for the magnitude, the pace of

the fed's monetary policy. >> it's a very healthy economy we will get 2.3% on inflation next 2.3 on inflation that's 6.4 the misery index, that number is better than it's been 89% of the time over the last 50 years. looks like the economy is on the right track, exactly the track the federal reserve would want it to be on, and therefore, right now, they're thinking they can follow their dots and just do two more 25 basis points this year, four next year of course something will happen to change that endogenously this economy is performing well. >> do you think today's numbers are indicative of a risk-on signal for the markets is this something the markets will read as soft landing achieved, no landing achieved? >> yes the problem is you never land the plane. every quarter you have another quarter and every quarter we get further confirmation we're on a soft landing track the markets, you know, get bid up on that

i am worried there are concentration issues within the u.s. market, concentration issues within fixed income, concentration issues in people's portfolios caused by this benign economic environment which causes people to take more risky bets. >> concentration issues in terms much equities within other asset classes and how do you urge investors to kind of tackle that because we've seen over the last few years, for example, just with the mag seven that if you weren't concentrated in certain stocks within there, you're under performing. >> don't just focus on the economy. focus on the shocks. the history of the 21st century coming out of left field, lehman brothers, 9/11, the pandemic something will go wrong and upset the economy and change people's outlook and the markets are going to come down the thing that's going to come down the most is the most overpriced there's another way of looking at it. we have seen $50 trillion added to household wealth in the last five years

$50 trillion there are a lot of people who a few years ago were struggling to come up with a retirement plan and now they're there. they should be derisking and have less risk in the portfolio than a few years ago but because of concentration their portfolios are more risky. it's a time not to just assess where the markets are but where you are financially. for a lot of middle and upper income households they are more wealthy than a couple years ago. >> anything keeping the fed from pausing the way that the europeans have >> i hope they don't i want them to keep coming down. there's no economic reason for them to normalize and they can take their sweet time but rates in the wrong place for financial markets. you need to get back to a normal neutral level of rates if the economy is fine it doesn't need the fed messing with us. if you're on the right path you don't need to be restrictive or accommodative you need to get back to normal a lot of distortions in the market are the result of having rates in the wrong place for ten

years before the pandemic and then rates too high in more repeat years they should try to normalize the economy. >> they can message a 25 even if these -- >> oh, absolutely. because i think you're going to get a 2.3 on the cpi next week as long as inflation is coming down to 2% in a weird way we can have our cake and eat it in this economy. it's capable of doing moderate -- slow to moderate economic growth and have inflation come down to 2%. and if that's happening, the fed can normalize rates. >> david, you've talked and written about immigration frequently and i'm just curious as to whether and how you see it playing or having an impact on this jobs number -- it's a central issue in the upcoming election as well. >> that's right. i think for right now we've seen a surge in immigration in the last few years, and there are a lot of people waiting adjudication by the immigration courts, feeding to the labor markets. saw an increase in restaurant jobs today, big increase in leisure and hospitality, being filled by immigrants

we have seen a fall off in the amount of immigration over the southern border but there's such a backlog i think that will feed more people into the labor market over the next year or two. a big change in immigration policy after the election that could affect labor supply. i think the fed is right to see, let's see how the election plays out before we adjust policy in any way to deal with that. >> finally, while here, goolsbee on the tape, there are signs that inflation might undershoot. europe is there. any reason to think we might not undershoot >> i think we will eventually. this is not an inflation prone economy. inequality pushes inflation down, information technology pushes inflation down and despite the strikes that we talk about in the last few weeks, very few strikes in america, union power is not what it used to be and tends to push inflation down this is fundamentally a disinflationary economy and i would not be surprised in a year's time to see a federal reserve looking at inflation below 2%. >> not to mention the

technological advancements and productivity david, kelly, thanks so much appreciate it. >> u.s. port workers are returning to their jobs today after reaching a temporary deal to end their strike. we spoke with acting labor secretary julie suh one of the people involved in brokering a deal. >> the collective bar gygaining process in that case worked. we've been saying when workers have a real voice at the table, when they can help to determine the conditions of their jobs, we're seeing really historic gains for working people we're also seeing it because we have such a strong economy more to go around, companies that are making record profits are realizing that when they do right by their workers it's better not just for working people, it's better for the industry and better for the future it makes the american economy

stronger. >> frank holland has been following the strike, and its implication for us since the beginning and joins us from new jersey it's outside the ioa's headquarters are people getting back to work. >> good morning. people are getting back to work. the workers are at the ports moving containers, et cetera we're here at ila headquarters when were hoping to see workers and the union president. he's not here either but certainly a win for the union at least in these early stages of the tentative agreement. they did secure the 61.5% wage increase they were seeking from the port operators known as usmx still other issues to figure out. this is a tentative agreement. the other major issue appears to be restrictions on automation and semi auto makes, two big things union workers concerned about how automation could impact their jobs. i spoke with the director of the national economic council lael brainard who worked with the other white house officials you

mentioned acting labor secretary julie su, department transportation secretary pete buttigieg, and they all worked together brainard worked with usmx and the negotiations were focused on wages, not so much automation and did not expect the administration to be hands on regarding automation going forward. >> i think they probably have some work to do on areas like automation and semi automation as you said. my sense is, that that is for those parties to work out. they did talk about their investments long term in u.s. ports in making those investments productive over time, and, of course, we've been making huge investments in american ports through the bipartisan infrastructure law. so over time we are seeing real improvements, real productivity improvements >> reporter: the disruption of

the strike was expected to put inflationary pressure on the economy. we've seen container shipping prices spike but they remain well off their highs they hit back in august brainard brings the administration's efforts to facilitate collective bargaining in several labor negotiations including the west coast longshoremen that got their deal done she pushed back on my questions on those deals could potentially spark wage inflation. >> we've seen rising real wages and inflation coming down to 2% with an expanding jobs market. so that i think is just a good sign that if we invest in our supply chains, if we invest in industries of the future, we are actually going to be able to continue to see this sustained period of expansion, really good growth, consumers that are resilient and inflation coming all the way back down to its

prepandemic levels >> reporter: as i mentioned workers are back at the ports today. we're here at ila headquarters and have not seen workers here or the president harold daggett. we're seeing signs of normalization in terms of investor expectations when it comes to the supply chain and supply chain stocks. shipping stocks falling hard you see on your screen right now, down 20% over the last week and spiked when it looked like this port might be lasting more than three days as it did. on the other hand we're seeing stocks like xpo, ups, jb hunt moving higher that perform well within normalized supply chain so we're seeing those stocks move higher, j.b. hunt lower, but xpo with big box customers moving higher on the expectations you're going to see more normalization of the supply chain going into the holiday season. >> all right frank real quick, you asked a question of lael brainard i asked it of the acting labor secretary neither answered about what happens to the wage increase does it get passed on to

consumers or efficiency gains enough to offset that? you follow the industry. >> reporter: well, mine i do follow the industry. we didn't have time to show all of lael brainard's interview she doesn't believe these increases lead to inflation. they see it as a sharing of the profits. pete buttigieg was on our air saying the container shipping companies their profits increased 350% over the last decade in her mind based on our conversation she doesn't believe they're going to pass on the costs, it's simply sharing the profits. >> all right frank holland thank you so much. really appreciate it. as we head to break our road map for the rest of the hour oil pushing higher as fears about the wider conflict between israel and iran grow where prices could go from here. >> plus, the best tech stocks to own in this market right now, at least some under the radar ai names that you may want to watch. and we will get goldman's view on the latest jobs number

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let's turn to the growing tensions in the middle east. concerns that israel may strike iran's oil facilities, fuel and crude prices, wti turned pitch for the year after pipe offhandedly indicated the united states is, quote, discussing, unquote, a possible attack by

israel joining us now is rbc global ahead of strategy, alina croft your knowledge of the region is so deep. let's start off on if the israelis do attack the oil production facilities of iran, what do you think the impact ultimately would be on oil prices, and i'm curious you're giving your experience as well, whether you think they would be successful >> i think the real question what would the israeli target? would they go after the all-important island facilities? that is iran's main export terminal 90% of iranian exports leave that facility. during the iran-iraq war they targeted ships going to that facility dot israelis target refineries and him the impact on global markets. we can expect the white house would be encouraging the israelis to think about refineries and not something that would actually pull barrels off the market but that said, if they go for the island, if iranian oil

exports are impacted, obviously, we'll be talking about brent prices into the 90s. the question would be then, would the white house be able to appeal to countries with spare capacities like saudi arabia to put more barrels on the market and what would the iranians do they talked about going after israeli natural gas facilities would they target other regional energy facilities in the persian gulf a lot is at play and the market is reacting to the fears of a significant supply disruption. >> yeah. well, give us a sense, the irania iranians were not producing that much oil many years ago. most going to china and india. >> china is the principle buyer. we've seen iran as you mentioned five years ago, we saw more significant sanctions enforcement. now we have iranian oil at about a six-year high and, so i do think the white house is now

talking about potentially tougher sanctions enforcement in an effort to maybe get the israelis to hold their fire. but we would be potentially talking around 1.7 million barrels a day of exports if a major terminal is hit, and again, i think the bigger question would be would the iranians in turn look to target, for example, ships in the straits of hormuz. they did that in 2019 and hit tankers off the coast of uae would they go after a major pipelines in the region? they certainly retain the capacity to do damage to original energy infrastructure the question is, what would be on their target list >> how would you characterize the capacity constraints or the lack of constraints for opec sfl plus do they have the ability to expand the production if there's a sizable amount that goes off-line from the iranians >> one country has the ability to bring on significant volumes of crude quickly if you want a million, million

plus barrels from a country it's going to be saudi arabia saudi arabia has been talking about phasing back in their 1 million barrel a day voluntary cut, outside the collective cut agreement which extends through 2025 i think that amount would be in play, depending on the size and the duration of a disruption i think all opec members are going to be sort of in a watch and wait mode to see the scale of disruption. what i don't think they want to break up the collective agreement that extend through year end 2025. >> what about the u.s. production 13.3 million, something around there? could we increase production if needed >> this is the issue about u.s. production u.s. production is part of the reason why we're not at $100 an oil because of the fears out of the middle east, but the united states is largely a just in time producer if you need barrels quickly, you have two options you place a phone call to riyadh

or you draw -- basically draw down further from the spr. those are the two options in the event of a significant supply shock. first you call riyadh. if you can't get enough barrels quickly you go back to the spr essentially the playbook that we used right after the russian invasion of ukraine. >> all right helena, thank you. >> thank you as we head to break, s&p on pace for negative week check out the biggest laggards you can see there humana down about 24%, conagra down more than 10% and speaking of laggards we're watching bitcoin unable to hold on above 65k. more on that move after this

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taking jardiance with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. ♪♪ jardiance is really swell ♪♪ ♪♪ the little pill with a big story to tell! ♪♪ welcome back to "squawk on the street." bitcoin is trying to rally today but down more than 6% to start the new month. over the last nine years, bitcoin has gained an average of 23% in the month of october. crypto related names like coinbase, micro strategy lower on the week. coinbase down double-digits since monday coming off a rough couple months suffering back-to-back quarterly losses

for the first time in more than two years. we will see to what degree we continue to look at crypto as a risk sentiment indicator. >> exactly and if today's data changes the game let's take a look at stocks nearly an hour into trading. let's get to dominic chu with more on the stocks watch here. >> leslie, kacarl, one stock standing out spirit airlines on headline news out of the "wall street journal" reporting that spirit, the budget carrier, could be contemplating a bankruptcy filing at some point down the line. that headline and story from the journal is leading to a 28% decline in those spirit airlines shares i would also caution you to kind of pay attention to what's happening with jet pblue as well the failed merger attempt led jet jetblue to abandon its attempt there's a bid to the market overall. big banks among the beneficiaries, bank of america,

citi, u.s. bank and morgan stanley solidly higher in the wake of the positive jobs report we're watching one key part of that technology trade coming up with the semiconductor stocks. applied materials, lam research, micron, super micro computer are showing some signs of gains here off their premarket highs. then take a look at the megacap technology trade as well apple, microsoft, nvidia, alphabet, amazon mixed in the session overall so we're seeing some of that shine come off the positivity earlier in the session. another place to keep a close eye today is what's happening with small caps which are outperforming on the day so far up about 0.75% the entire market seeing a little bit of that momentum come out but the small cap stocks doing very well on a relative basis, carl. i'll send things back over to you grace see you in a little bit. dominic chu. what today's blowout jobs

numbers mean dow is up 44

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welcome back i'm silvana henao with your cnbc news update. israel says its fighter jets hit an underground tunnel overnight connecting lebanon and syria the key border crossing has been used by many in recent days to escape from lebanon amid israel's offensive the military claimed it targeted the tunnel because hezbollah has used it to smug ugle in weapons from iran. the state department said a third flight evacuating americans took off from beirut yesterday. the charter landed in frankfurt carrying nearly 100 americans and their family members. the supreme court agreed to

hear mexico's $10 billion gun lawsuit against eight u.s. gun manufacturers. the country is seeking to hold them responsible for allegedly facilitating the trafficking of firearms over the southern border and into the hands of violent cartels. the gun makers have argued the mexico suit has no business in an american court. back to you. >> thanks. the september jobs number topped all estimates with payrolls advancing the most since march. joining us for what the data tells us and means for fed policy goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius. happy friday, jan. good to see you. >> great to see you as well. thank you. >> we've been watching some of the adjectives usedto describe the report, stunning, game changer, goolsbee called it superb what did you think >> i'm usually more circumspect because you have to take every single number with a grain of salt this was a strong jobs report,

but what i think is maybe even more important is that it confirms the message from other indicators third quarter gdp we're tracking it at 3.2% the claims numbers have been very encouraging back to the 220s, and then on top of that, you have employment numbers that, when we, you know, investigate sort of the underlying trend and sift through some of the information, we are close to 200,000 underlying employment trend. that's, obviously, a very good place to be with inflation still coming down. >> some of the i guess either doves or hard landers, whatever you want to call them in recent quarters, have been all about the revisions. watch out for these downward revisions. have we turned a corner on that? >> august is often a month that does get revised upward. that was something that, you know, we and others have been

aware of, and again, we did get an upward revision here. you know, i think it's true that in 2024, revisions have been predominantly to the downside but there's no law here and certainly not something that would tell you the economy is, you know, materially weakening you need to look at a broader range of indicators and i think if you do that, it's pretty clear that this is still a very solid economy. >> in today's report, the bls said there's no discernible impact from extreme weather. what's your expectation -- obviously, october is still only four days old, but we've seen its fair share of extreme weather. do you think it will have more of an impact in this month's report coming out in november? >> yeah. i mean it's too early to tell because the, you know, survey week hasn't started yet. it wouldn't be surprising if you

got a temporary impact which then reverses the following month. i mean, when you have these weather effects, the key question is really always, you know, what is the sort of two-month average and typically you get a full bounce back the next month so it's not something that i would put a ton of weight on at the moment, but, of course, it will be important once we cut our october forecast in a month's time. >> there's been discussion ate the port strike and this tentative agreement, jan, and maybe when you look at how much of the food basket was in deflation before the strike, if some of this inventory on docks floods its way into shelves, do you think more food deflation is in store >> i think that's certainly quite possible the trend has been going in that direction, and i think it reinforces what is still a very favorable inflation trend. you know, we're still i think

where i would put more weaight i from the core numbers and the fact that the rent and owners' equivalent rent inflation data are going to show further deceleration i'd also note that, you know, while the labor market signals are still quite firm, it is clear that the labor market is now rebalanced so the trend in wage growth i think is still back down towards 3.5% range and all of that, i do think, will continue to push inflation back to the fed's 2% target in 2025 >> although, i was looking -- i looked it up this morning, you wrote a report in december of last year titled "could inflation fall below 2%. now you have goolsbee today raising the prospect of an undershoot do you think that's possible now? >> i think it is possible if you

have a period during which rent and owners' equivalent rent actually grow, you know, below the sort of longer term 3% trend. that could certainly give you a modest undershoot. i wouldn't expect a big understood because i think the economy is too strong for that a few tenths of a percentage point. our forecast -- and there's always going to be a range around that -- but our forecast is 2% by the end of next year for core pce. >> core pce. jan, appreciate it very much a lot to handle today. we wish you were here on set hopefully next month thanks as always. >> i'm sure. thanks so much. >> jan hatzius. after the break a look at ai's next big winners beyond mecategap ch the details after this we're back in a moment daughter: it's a lot of fence. dad: you wanna help me? dad: aim at the wall, but get closer. daughter: (gasps) what the?! daughter: alright. dad: side to side. when you work with someone who knows a lot

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their larger cap cousins in the wake of the better than expected jobs data. one trader looking at positions to trade around th sllapatma c trade. tune in later today on "power lunch" at 2:00 p.m. eastern time your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our advanced matching helps find talented candidates, so you can connect with them fast. visit indeed.com/hire (vo) memory and thinking issues keep piling up? it may seem like normal aging with them fast. but could be due to a buildup of amyloid plaques in the brain.

the sooner you talk to your doctor, the more options you may have. learn more at amyloid.com. check out shares of palantir hitting a 52-week high today the stock up almost 7% since joining the s&p 500 in late september and up 130% this year. up almost 1% today let's get to our next guest. the firm vista just raising a $20 billion fund of course one of many funds that has in the private equity business, and they are all focused on software as a service. ashley mcneill to the extent our viewers know vista, it's a private equity firm i report when you do take private. explain to us what you do as a head of equity capital markets at a firm that typically takes

companies private, not public -- you know maybe they do take them public as well >> well, the fun of the equity capital markets you take things private, re-ipo them and manage public investor perception around software and have those conversations and understand where are they investing what they like and don't they like. >> that helps people understand why they should listen to you right now. we talk about the absence of ipos 2024 was supposed to be a strong year we all have heard so often about ai-related names perhaps a bit early in their gestation. nonetheless so many others in your portfolio why haven't we seen more ipos? what are you hearing from the investors in terms of their, perhaps, reluctance to invest in a new company's shares >> i was very excited this time last year because i did think '24 was priming to be a good year but for the ipo market to open up in earnest and return to normalcy we need three things. you've heard thesethree things but we need a lack of volatility in the market. we need to see stable markets.

we also need to see interest from investors we need to see a risk-on appetite finally and this is the most important and really came to fruition this year, we need to see consistency and clarity from corporations around their business plans like how are they planning on executing and can they hit their numbers? that formed this year which is why i think we're very excited about '25 as an an ipo year. >> there hasn't been a sem nin noll year. i talk about the private market, private credit, the ability of so many companies to stay private for longer given the capital that's available or even for you as one private equity firm to sell them to another what gives you the confidence, given the three things that have been in place to a certain extent this year that will be different. >> posting has declined broadly speaking amongst founders and cooperations i want to balance that with the fact that we have had a dearth of ipos.

if you think 45% of u.s. vc backed firms go public that's like over 350 firms looking to tap the market at some point and that would take -- that backlog f we go back to a norm l ai a -- normalized rate would take a decade to clear. as we see investors pulling for that and demand for the ipos coming through and strong aftermarket performance from the ipo asset class you'll see ipos in '25. >> what about your portfolio companies at vista what are you seeing particularly as they start to add generative ai to their various offerings or impacts to their business both positively and from a competitive standpoint as well >> our portfolio has been resilient in sort of this high cost of capital environment and the implementation of gen ai has been game changing on a host of levels i think from a broad perspective, software is really poised to take advantage of this technology and sort of the new wave of capital being deployed into software. >> how would you characterize

sentiment with regard to software versus ai because as david laid out in your intro, you just raised a $20 billion fund focused on ai, despite kind of a software upbringing for the firm. i'm curious if that's a response to investor sentiment, and it really, you know, there is this kind of notion that investors see things as a zero sum game between ai and software or if it's a way to kind of inform your software portfolio companies and kind of blend the two? >> sow software we believe will be tbeneficiary of ai. it takes time to layer in and see those measurable and monetizeble moments and so for software, investors need to be patient and they need to look for breadcrumbs or proof points of generative ai technology making their business better there are three layers, on the growth side, on the margin or efficiency side and the last side which i think is starting to come into play is the capex

or partnership side. a lot of software companies starting to partner together to really bring this technology to the forefront. >> lack of volatility for fertile ground what connotes lack of volatility and do you think we're working in reverse on some of these late calendar year events or maybe it's just temporary? >> it's a fair point we often hear about the ipo window and that's oftentimes predicated on major macro economic or geopolitical events happening and needing those events to be behind us before the ipo market opens '24 was always set to be a year with a lot of events happening, and so less windows available. i think volatility has remained relatively low, and it has given investors confidence however there's still a lot of unknowns that need to take place or happen and a few more data points before people can get really comfortable. >> real quick on generative ai and use in software tools that enterprises are going to be able

to use to get more efficient, when do we start to see the impact from that >> i think we're starting to see the impact last earnings cycle there was a lot of commentary around software and gen ai and the implications of gen ai what i'm most excited about this earnings quarter we will have more proof points and the verbiage i would pay attention to how corporates are talking about deployment of ai and where they see that deployment going. >> appreciate your joining us. thank you. >> thank you. >> equity head of equity capital markets. when we come back, in the next hour, white house reaction to the september jobs number the administration's council of economic advisers' chair jared bernstein will be with us to break down the numbers jeff bezos briefly losing his spot as the world's second richest person why and who passed him as the dow briefly goes red stay with us is it me... or is work not working?

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. welcome back the hedge fund industry has seen no short of challenges mangroup, the largely traded hedge fund group seems to be

turning things around. the firm reversed two quarters of outflow and set a record of $178 billion the firm generated returns of about 9% net of fees derived from multistrategy fund premium and long only funds in a variety of asset classes i recently sat down with ceo robin grew for her first cnbc interview after her first year in that seat i asked her what the hedge fund proposition is these days and she told me it's more relevant than ever. >> as we are coming out of constant easing, you'll do things at different speeds and different cadences across the world. so, that volatility, that environment where you've got interest rates and cash actually cost something, means that you want to be investing across a portfolio which is able to navigate different economic cycles so, is passive still a good investment it's not as reliable as it was before is private equity a bad thing? no but there are two ends of a

spectrum and there's this big thing in the middle which is liquid alternatives. and is trying to find more active investment styles that's where active, alternative investment managers can lean in. >> we also spoke about a.i. in investing and technology she said they use everywhere within their organization from research to data signals she doesn't think it will ever replace the people who are actually putting those technology tools to work you can catch our full sitdown interview on cnbc.com, guys. >> won't ever replace the people >> it's interesting because trading is one of those areas that mangroup has actually been doing a.i. and machine learning for, what she says, was 10 to 15 years. i visited their offices in london about seven years ago to do a whole story on this and how they use it for quant trading and so forth i asked her how things have changed in the seven years because as we talk about all the time, this is not a new technology she said the use of generative

a.i. and the large language models and just the overall advancements have made there be less friction within the day-to-day aspects of execution of trades and things of that nature >> a real test for so many of these kinds of funds do they risk adjusted appropriately so in a down market you're not down as much. >> there's also this idea, similar to what we talk about with regard to the big tech companies, hedge funds because they are larger have this advantage and spending on technology you don't have to rely on a.i. products that are sourced from the same places. you can create your own because they have -- with man group they have 600 people working in the tech group most of them working on this type of stuff. so, you know, there is definitely a scale advantage we've seen over the last few years with regards to technology >> 9% versus 20% for the s&p. >> some of that is different asset classes. it's not all equities. >> got it. speaking of equities, mark zuckerberg became the world's second rich person for the second time, passing jeff bezos.

why? because of meta shares, of course they hit new highs in fact, they're up again today. up some 60 -- let's call it 5% year to date also having a nice move since the company did report better than expected sales. that was in the second quarterback on the end of july, july 31st. zuckerberg's fortune has grown by $78 billion just this year. meanwhile, amazon shares have ended down for seven straight sessions they are up today. musk is no ellison and bezos, do you get to $1 trillion >> they are their own countries according to the gdp. >> it's astounding it's got to be not far they're all in the $200 billion range, aren't they. >> almost the number of tiers that bezos has shed when zuckerberg passed him on this list, i'm sure close.

>> five guys have $1 trillion? >> potentially one will have a trillion on his own if some of these valuations on things like spacex and others -- xai comes to fruition. by the way, speaking of a.i., we've got openai coo brad lightcap will join us here on monday morning looking forward to that interview. looking forward to the next hour i won't be with you. carl and leslie will >> we'll be here. >> yeah. continue to cover these markets ayitusonhifray st wh

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good friday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker on the floor of the new york stock exchange. today white house reaction to the september jobs numbers the administration's council of economic advisers chair jared bernstein will join us. the east and gulf coast port strike gets suspended. what's in the tentative agreement and what comes next? we will continue to watch crude oil. one of this week's top gainers as goldman warns oil prices may, in fact, shoot