at the 300 level but there's enough messiness within their production and some of their freight volumes that we're not sure we'd get in just yet. >> too messy that's what he says. doug, thanks doug butler. thanks for watching "power lunch" and thanks for having me. tyler will be back monday. >> do you want to issue a correction >> it was jeff van gundy >> "closing bell" starts right now. thanks so much welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live at the new york stock exchange. this make-or-break hour stocks with striking distance of record highs after that blow-out jobs report we will track all of this over the final stretch as always. and ask the wharton professor, jeremy siegel, what today's news means for the bull run in stocks first let's show you the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. we're green across the board nasdaq is the winner today

it's pretty much how the day has gone for the majors. the russell as small caps get a nice boost tech is leading. almost every sector has been in the green and on this economic optimism it does take us to our "talk of the tape." whether what happens today clears the way for stocks to make their next move the wharton school professor of finance, jeremy siegel nice to see you. welcome back >> thank you, scott. good afternoon >> what's this mean now for stocks >> it's interesting and actually rick santelli referred to it, even though we hired 550,000 new jobs in the third quarter, interestingly enough hours worked is virtually flat the good news about that is that the gdp increase is going to be almost all productivity and we're looking for third quarter 2.5 to 3 that's productivity. the good news about that, it was a little hotter on wages, but

that's mostly productivity so that is not inflationary that's good news for stocks. listen, i never thought they're going to go another 50 i think it's a series of 25. i think the long run neutral rate, a discussion about what is that long-term rate going to be, i think it's 3.5 i'm going to reach it probably in the second half of next year. and if you take a look at the futures market, that's pretty much what they project you only need 25 basis points per quarter. you don't need any more 50s. that's the way the fed will go unless we get some really bad news the soft landing scenario keeps on getting brighter and brighter >> what does that mean for the stock market, professor? did you change your view of where you think it can go between now and the end of the year with this jobs report today? >> well, there's two things pulling at that. first of all, what's noteworthy

is how yields have gone up virtually 4% i've been saying on the show that the fed, lowering that probability of a recession, being aggressive, may bring the short rate down, but it's going to bring the long rate up. and so that's a little more competition for stocks but, more importantly, it's better earnings. if you can avoid a recession, the market likes it. i can certainly see 6,000 on the s&p by year end, but it's going to be contending with higher yields i think the ten year is eventually going to set down i don't know if we'll getter in two months closer to 4.5% from where we are today. >> some have made the point that valuations look full, that they look a little rich, but it's hard to argue about equities at the current time because there's so much cash around, and we know

that the fed is cutting whether it's 50 or 25 and this is one heck of a resilient economy. >> yeah. absolutely if earnings are still going up and there's no sensitive economic indicator right now that says recession, i think the trend is your friend here. listen, it is true, the market is 21.5, pick out the mag seven. you're at 18 i don't think that's expensive in the world we're in today. it's not cheap either, but it's certainly not expensive and it doesn't mean that there isn't room for the market to still grow it does mean that i don't think this is going to be a melt up of the market 6500 is not going to be there and more likely than not 2025 is not going to match either 2023

or this year in returns which have certainly been far above average. >> larry summers makes the case 50 basis points at the last meeting was a mistake. that there was no reason to do that stan druckenmiller in an email to another media outlet today says the following, i hope the fed is not trapped by forward guidance the way they were in 2021 gdp above trend. equity's all-time high, kremd it tight, gold new high where's the restriction? these men have a point >> yeah. well, you know, i love larry i know him very well, but larry was also the one that said there was absolutely no way we can stop this inflation with having -- without having a severe recession and that certainly has not come about. now, was 50 basis points a mistake? no, i think they should have done 25 in july and 25 in

september. they doubled up. again, as i said, although the jobs numbers looked good, hours worked for third quarter was not a gangbusters number at all. and, as a result, why not move more towards what you think the long-term rate is. the fed put out the bulletin in september saying 2.9 now i've been saying, no, it's higher it's 3.5 when you were at almost 5.5 before the last rate cut, you were way too high for good growth to continue in the next several quarters so i disagree with larry clearly the fed is going to take a look at all the indicators maybe they'll pause once, but i think they're on the track to get down to the mid-3.0s which the models talking about fed policy says given inflation, given the labor market, that's where they should be >> sure, but doesn't it at

minimum sort of question those who suggested that the fed was behind the curve or too late these gentlemen are suggesting not only were they not behind the curve, they may have done too much i think you were in the camp -- you were in the camp of wanting the fed to do more were you wrong were you wrong >> i was very worried in july and that turned to be temporary, i admit. i didn't expect it to go back up but, that said, it doesn't mean you should stay in an extremely restricted level given the fact that unemployment is at your long-run target and inflation is almost at your long-run target i think this -- look, the market itself, the long bond was saying if the fed stayed that high, the likelihood of a recession was much higher. when the fed started becoming more aggressive on the down side, i'm not at all

surprised -- i said the long rate is going to go up and, by the way, all those people who said i'm going to wait to buy a home because mortgage rates are going down, no, there ain't. take a look, mortgage rates follow the 10 year, you're getting higher mortgage rates right now than before the fed cut rates, and they're going to be higher in the future. we're not going to go to a runaway economy like some predicted as a result of the fed moving more towards the neutral rate of interest >> we have more evidence of that diane olick brought that to us on "halftime" today, 27, 29 basis points, a jump in mortgage rates. just astounding. let me ask you this. you threw out the number, 6,000 for the s&p, seemed realistic to you. subramanian on this network on "squawk box" said i feel like this is goldilocks this might be goldilocks, as much as she hated to use that word, she did. is it? >> i heard her i mean, the thing is that the

stock market is priced pretty near that goldilocks rate. goldilocks doesn't mean a big surge in the market. i am think the market was expecting a soft landing the data has tended to disappear so it does look like we're going to be getting a soft landing and i think the market is pretty near to price that way and that's why i don't think the next 12 months will be any sort of a 20% increase in the market or perhaps deal with the 10 year that's probably closer to 4.5% i think they will in the next year but certainly not at the

rates we saw previous to >> courtney is a cnbc contributor. jill, i'll come to you first, you get the first reaction to professor siegel what do you think today's jobs report does to the stock market? >> i think it's another data point to suggest ever since the fed cut the economy has been holding up better than feared, so our economists now think the fed cut in november will be 25 rather than 50 basis points. we're in an environment if we see a soft landing, our base case and seeing economic data hold up in a profit cycle, we think it's a positive environment for cyclicals and we don't have an optimistic target on the s&p 500, as the professor

mentioned equities have grown expensive. we have a 5400 target on the s&p 500 for year end but see more upside in the cyclical areas and equity income as the fed cuts rates. those are some of the areas that haven't been as crowded by investors. >> i want you to defend that target nor because it's peculiar to me that you're at 5400. it has to be one of the lowest on the street at this time considering we're at 5735 let's call it. we just got more confirmation the economy is good, the fed is just starting. earnings expectations are still pretty good. so how can you be at 54? >> we're more equal waited on mid caps, on value and not

necessarily on the cap-weighted index. when you look at the broadening out, earnings expectations, we think, should drive that we were in an environment where some of the biggest parts of the s&p, tech, mag seven, these stocks had seen some of the best earnings growth, earnings surprises. now earnings growth is decelerating for that pocket of the market it's picking up for the rest of the environment. investors become more price sensitive, so we do expect that rotation out of the sum of the parts of the market that are the biggest weights into other areas so we think that will be more positive for the equal weighted index. >> as rates are coming down, more of a broadening as opposed to a rotation and i agree with that viewpoint you're going to see small caps will continue to do well as rates come down and they have

more loans on their balance sheets you're going to see things like real estate, utilities are going to outperform. you see today some have done more poorly to professor siegel's point, the 10-year treasury is going up >> rates aren't coming down. >> short term they are >> you expect they will continue to do that >> i think this is something you need to be cognizant of -- >> and short term, i mean, the two year is coming down so you want to buy small caps >> i think small caps are a much better value than your mag seven here i think even small caps aside, you're looking at the other 495 in the s&p 500 probably more that everything rally, the cash on the sidelines you brought up a lot of that is positive for the broader markets, plus we haven't talked about the stimulus happening in china. it's good for the u.s. market, seeing companies like caterpillar are doing fantastic.

they sell a lot to china, things like energy doing well, things like commodities you're seeing global interest rates come down, not just the u.s. central banks >> rates across the curve are up, and they pretty much have been since the fed even cut rates. the fed will do smaller cuts, maybe they don't even do what they think they're going to do what's going to push rates down to make the trade work >> i think you need the economy to continue to be on good footing. the big data point today is the fact the labor markets continue to remain strong gdp is growing the consumer is holding up if you will continue to see inflation coming down, which it is, the economy is on good footing, that is that soft landing scenario and is what you're seeing. >> so, professor, what do you make of the broadening story it obviously worked in the third quarter. to jill's point the equal weight s&p outperformed the cap weight

and that's why the mega caps didn't do so well but utilities, real estate, industrials and financials did does that continue or not? >> first of all, scott, i want to mention there are trillions of dollars of loans that are absolutely directly tied to the fed funds rate they go up and down one for one with that rate and smaller companies have more of those loans than larger companies. you're having those short-term rates go down, and they will continue to go down. we could argue about how fast but, as i said, i wouldn't be surprised by the mid-3.0s at the same time that the long rates go up so that would argue the interest costs on those smaller firms is going to be less burdensomein addition the soft landing helps those smaller stocks more cyclical, less global more tied

to the business cycle, the less chance of a recession, the better their profits will be, so they can be winners on two fronts here. >> i know, but, professor, the russell has been pretty much held around 2,200. it's not getting a huge boost today albeit up 1.25%, it's outperforming. i'll give you and everyone else on the panel that, but lately it hasn't done that much. yields are up and the nasdaq is leading. >> that is true and up see that sensitive -- nasdaq stocks are what we call higher beta stocks. they get a bigger push no matter what direction the markets up or down, you'll see it up or down more than the s&p 500. as you said, the russell 2000 is the winner of the indexes today,

and i think if the fed continues to cut that it will continue to be the winner into the next six months it does mean we will finally have the big run in growth stocks they have done fantastically but there are fundamental economic forces that will favor those stocks in the market >> court, on a day where you have confirming economic news and yields up that every single mega cap stock on my screen except for apple is green. and apple is barely in the red i wonder what kind of sign, if anything, that is, albeit hard to make a big call based on one day's action >> i think it's more of what we

have been, there is that risk on trade. people want to be in the mag seven, things like the overly risky trades that are continuing to do well people are continuing to put money in cash. i think that's the question as that money starts to come out, where does that go and i don't think that trade of the mag seven is over yet. is it getting expensive and long in tooth probably which is why i think there's better places to add your money. i don't think that's over. you may get the other areas to outperform people will continue to chase the trade with all the a.i. hype that's happening >> jill, what's the story of this earnings season going to be are we going to come out feeling better about our prospects expectations for next year are like 15% that's a lot to live up to >> i think going back to the discussion on small caps, that's going to be a really key -- this will be a really key quarter for small caps because i think while

i agree that a lot of the fed cutting is a positive for small caps, the economy holding up better that's one step in the right direction. we've been in an earnings recession for small caps that at the beginning of the year everyone expected we would be out of it by now and estimates still continue to come down. so i think that's one issue right now when we talk to a lot of small and mid cap investors is there's a lot of hope baked in on the small cap earnings recovery where we've seen more sustainable etched of that earnings recovery, back into positive territory for the rest of the market ex the mag seven corporate sentiment has been pretty weak there. i think that's where expectations look lofty and the economic data can continue to hold up, perhaps that will give corporate confidence that's one element where companies are saying and guiding and how small cap earnings do this quarter because we've been

tactically smaller given the fundamental backdrop though there's a lot of positive longer term >> professor, you get the last word the same question about earnings and what's going to be the big takeaway this quarter? >> i think there's a couple things first of all, if we get a 3 handle, that meansmoney market funds, won't those dividend paying stocks well protected that are in the 3%, 4% range look attractive. that's where i think a lot of people say i can get the same yield and those are generally not going to be the tech stocks. on the earnings growth, yeah, that's aggressive. we're in a 2, 2.5% real economy, you throw in the buybacks that we have, that's another 2, 3%. up throw in 2% inflation, you're not getting the 15, getting, 7, 8, 9%, so, you know, it's not

uncommon to see the long-term earnings estimates tend to fade down as time goes on i would say those predicting 15% next year are perhaps going to be disappointed for the market >> we'll leave it there. a good weekend, everybody. professor, thank you jill, we'll talk to you soon court, thanks for being with us as well. to pippa stevens for the biggest names moving into the close. spirit airlines tumbling 24% as they reportedly could file for bankruptcy and is in talks with bondholders according to "the wall street journal." the report added the timing of any filing will not be eminent and followr with jetblue rivian shares are sliding after it slashed production forecasts and missed q3 delivery numbers, blaming the lower production on a shortage of a component used in its r1 vehicles and commercial vans. the company would not disclose the specific component but said the shortage started in q3 and

has become more acute in recent weeks. >> thank you we'll see you in a little bit. up next, evercore's roger altman is here. we'll get his first take on the jobs report, what he thinks the fed is going to do next, what he thinks the markets will do we'll talk to him next you're watching long"csi bell" live from the new york stock exchange ♪ ♪

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stocks higher on a better than expected jobs report for september. evercore's roger altman to discuss. welcome back it's always good to have you on our program. >> scott, thanks for having me >> what's your takeaway for today? >> unadulterated good news think about it growth is strong the commerce department reported 3% over the past year. that's amazing four years into the recovery inflation headed straight to the fed's target

job creation strong. corporate profit outlook, as you just discussed a minute ago, strong dock workers strike over gasoline prices down hard to imagine a better macro environment than here and a lot of implications of it. >> sure, but people would listen to what you just said as you went down the list, why in the world did the fed do 50 and then why would they think they need to continue cutting rates on the schedule they seem to be on? i know you know larry summers well he said 50 was a mistake >> well, i was on here, this network, just before the fed made that decision and after, and my own view was it was an extremely close call and i don't

really think you can -- with all due respect to larry -- criticize the fed. when you think back to powell's comments at jackson hole, he made clear they felt more confident about the inflation pathway than they did about the labor market outlook and, therefore, we're going to tilt a little bit toward protecting labor markets, which is what they did by cutting 50 going forward, i've heard a lot of commentary on your show and earlier shows here about the fed reverting to 25 basis point cuts that's my own expectation in a november meeting i don't think they'll stand pat because, as powell said, the time has come to ease monetary policy i think they're ultimately heading toward roughly 3 to 3.5% federal funds rate and the

pathway to that is probably going to be a little bit slow but pretty steady. >> someone might listen to that list you went down, which listed so many different positives, and say, well, roger must be really bullish on the stock market then, and you're actually not. why? >> i think it will be hard for equities between now and the rest of the year, the end of the year, to move up in any material way because they're already so high they're at record levels and in a lot of cases multiples are abnormally high -- not every case, but a lot of cases and open market interest rates, as we see today, ten year and so forth, are actually rising that's not trivial and is not making it easier for stocks.

it's been an amazing yearly for stocks if you annualized the s&p 500 for the whole year at the rate that it prevailed, the rate of increase two weeks ago, it was going to be the best year on the s&p 500 in ages. it isn't that it isn't good, it's great but getting up to higher from here over the short term, i don't see it >> every time you're on, we talk capital markets, m&a, your bread and bunter at evercore, and i had a conversation with the chairman and ceo of goldman sachs, david solomon, on his outlook for when this will pick up where are the ipos you said the environment is so great, the stock markets are record highs i want you to listen to what mr. solomon said and have your reaction on the other side >> the environment is actually okay for bank activity in our business

there are places where it's been accelerating i think we've seen a real acceleration in activity, some meaningful improvement in equity capital markets and m&a activity. >> when does someone like david solomon get to come on and say, we're back >> well, let's just focus on the m&a environment. it is improving but 2024 is going to turn out to have been an okay year but not an awesome year although expectations for '25 are very high. and if you look at a variety of early indications like conflict checks and engagement letters, risk backlog and so forth, we think that expectation for a much better 2025 is logical. so the m&a outlook is pretty good and i expect equity capital market activities to be good, also, in 2025 because there's so much pent-up demand.

>> that's what many are saying we have to turn the calendar, get through the election and all that roger, always a pleasure you know that. thanks for coming on >> thank you very much my pleasure. >> roger altman joining us jeff degraph is back to tell us what he's calling the most important market call right now. we'll tell you after the break it's a smart move to get a second opinion. you do it when you're looking for a contractor. you definitely do it with medical advice.

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ro china stocks extending their rally, the fourth straight week of gains our next guest says buying china right now the most important market call. jeff degraaf, chairman and helped of technical research renaissance. yesterday, number one, buy china. number two, just listen to number one something to that effect am i right >> it was tuesday, but exactly right. >> what difference does it make? >> just another day, right i think, scott, you get these opportunities once every five, maybe ten years. 97% of the constituents of the csi 300 are making 20-day highs. 100% are above their 20-day moving average this is unabashed momentum it's very, very bullish, and it's coming on the back of these

extraordinarily negative readings we've had in alpha generation the last three to five years this is where bottoms are made people have given up the etf flows are negative so when we look for the conditions, call that a technician's valuation, if you will, that alpha model, and then we get this hot spark through momentum, again, these are very rare occurrences i know this sounds crazy, but i think this market can get to 6,000 within as short as 12 months i think it's an important call coming out of china. you actually have valuation and now that momentum. it looks really good to us technically. >> these stocks, you know, most of them, certainly the tech names, are up more than 30%. that's a lot obviously you make the suggestion this is just getting started >> it really is.

i know it's such a human instinct to say how can i buy because they're up x, but all the work we've done, there's no relationship between a short-term move of any consequence and a need to mean revert i think it's people's primal fears that will hold them back from making a lot of money here. we can pull back, consolidate, have a 10% consolidation i think it's a gift, frankly, if you get that we're going to be aggressive not only adding to those positions but putting leverage onto that >> the problem some have with this trade alludes to the idea of a lack of trust it's like stan druckenmiller the other day suggesting, i have no interest as long as xi jinping is running the country how do i deal with that stimulus versus trust you put those both on a scale, i'm not sure which one wins out. >> it's a fair question. those kind of become more

philosophical than we like to get our hands dirty with for us it is the markets -- it's the interpretation of the market's message whether the trust is a longer term issue and this is a shorter term issue, maybe it's, frankly, to gain trust back in the short run. i don't know exactly how that will play. when we listen to the consistency of the tape and the things we look for, this absolutely is one of those conditions that we have to abide by and play. i understand -- >> just to push back real quick for a second, because you used the word philosophical is it that or is it fundamental when you talk about the risk and the lack of trust? that's why people have been reticent to put money there because they don't trust it. >> right, right. i think that's fair, but i also think that's part of what helps to create a bottom

if xi jinping needs to stay in power, is he going to do things that are going to obviously facilitate his dominance there that's probably right. that's where it gets more philosophical for us, a lot of self-interest involved in that when i look at valuation, when i look at that margin of safety, if you will, that we always look for in these trades, i just think the upside is multiples better than the risk to the down side that's how we think about it and play it. we are treading where others fear >> forgive me for stepping on your toes there. my last question to you, the market today, we're about the highs of the day, dow is up better than 300 now. when you look at the technicals of this market, now we have this jobs report, where can the s&p go from here >> look, this is a good trend market this is not a momentum market like we're seeing in china this is a good trend market. i think the most refreshing part of today is this backup that we're seeing in yields yields are overbought right now.

this is the first time they've been overbought since april. i think that's something to at least keep in mind and perspective. but, that said, and this is really, really important, look at the sectors that are up today, financials are up, discretionary is up, utilities, real estate is down. that's a very good sign, the market is not dependent on these perpetual lower rates and it is advancing on its own volition with what's happening to the overall economy. i think this helps seal the deal on the soft landing. i don't think 50 basis points was a mistake. there's ample room for this fed to lower rates t. they're just not going to have to do it with the same type of urgency that looked like they might need to end of august and early september. >> this is a good news is good news rate move today >> correct >> jeff, i appreciate you, jeff

degraaf. up next, tracking the biggest movers into the close. pippa stevens is back with that. >> one retailer is benefiting from back-to-school buying we have the name to watch coming up next.

we're about 15 from the closing bell

back to pippa stevens for the stocks she's watching. boeing shares are rising in late trading the jet maker and its largest union will return to the bargaining table on monday as they try to come to an agreement that would end a strike by 33,000 west coast factory workers. abercrombie & fitch in the green after jpmorgan added the company to its positive catalyst watch list the firm raised its third quarter earnings estimates saying brands including hollister showed momentum in the back-to-school shopping season and vistra's record run hitting an all-time high advancing in all but one of the last 20 trading days sundar pichai saying they are exploring nuclear for data centers. the meaningful tail winds driving power demand show no signs of abating scott? >> pippa, thank you so much. that's pippa stevens still ahead, the man group ceo making a case for hedge funds today. why she says the industry is, quote, more relevant than ever

coming up on "the bell." we'll tell you why

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♪ coming up next, what's behind the slide in the home builders today later don't miss ark investor cathie wood. our "market zone" is next.

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power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley "closing bell market zone," mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day.

leslie picker with the headlines from her interview with the largest trade, and, michael, i'll turn to you first less than ten points from a new closing high on the dow. we've picked up steam here as we've hit the final, final stretch. >> it was an hours long struggle to find something to complain about and not much in the jobs report all the stuff you maybe had fear about clicked off in a positive direction. that being said, i still feel as if people are kind of sitting on risk budgets here. you don't see the grab we're only 20 s&p points away. the dow is basically there if people feel like they're involved but almost a healthy

reservoir of caution we're in october, we have these known events and it's keeping the market in check from celebrating what was pretty much an unambiguously positive jobs report oil popping, that's okay because it was so low. i think you're in a lucky spot to be facing those macro moves >> i had a money manager, i'll leave it at that, text me and say i bought some russell today, january russell calls as well thinking this trade is going to really start picking up. this is where the action has been focused >> the russell is up 1.5% on a day long-term xwryields are up we're taking rate cuts out of the curve. it's not just an easing story. it is an economy the going to pick up story and, therefore, it should filter into earnings broadly speaking

s&p earnings have, in a healthy way again, expectations cut back by 4% over the course of the quarter for the numbers we're going to hear next week that probably creates a low bar how much is priced in remains to be seen. >> remember 42,330 is the number on the dow for a new closing high we're above that level now, 42,331 we're moving around a little bit, leslie, apropos we're talking about money management, hedge funds, and someone who made the reference they're more relevant than ever right now >> the hedge fund industry has seen no shortage of challenges, outflows and underperformance for the decade with a few exceptions man group, the largest hedge fund has seen its share of head winds. it seems to be turning things around reverse two quarters of $178

billion. the firm generated returns of 1% net of fees. and i sat down with the ceo for her first interview and asked her what the valuation is these days she told me it's more relevant compared with other types of managers >> is passive still a goodin vestment is private equity a bad thing? no they're two ends of the spectrum and there's this big thing in the middle, liquid alternatives and is trying to find more active investment styles and that's where active alternative investment managers can lean in. >> you can catch our full sitdown on krf cnbc.com >> that's leslie picker. i think we can put two and two together here, right, good

news on the economy, yields up, mortgage rates up. >> tell mike i have something to complain about today lennar, pulte, d.r. horton are down as are sherwin williams, lowe's and masco 27 basis point jump following the release of the jobs report, now 6.53 percent, 42 basis points higher than the day before the fed cut rates by half a percentage point mort fwaj rates don't follow the fed exactly. it's what the expectation is for the fed. matt graham of "mortgage news daily" says the only salvation the notion this is just one jobs report in a recent run mostly weaker and the next one won't be so damning for bonds but he wants mortgage rates lower

it depends on where you sit, right, scott >> diana, thank you. diana olick. we have 90 seconds left. we'll turn our attention next week and it gets real with earnings end of the week >> it does probably a welcome thing the macro we can set aside and say it's doing what we hope it to do. the bull case is the status quo continues as it is you're not necessarily looking to squeeze inflation lower in any aggressive way you're not necessarily hoping the economy perks up beyond 2.5% annual rate, which is where we are. the question is, do we stay in that lane? earnings, i think its to crank up slow in terms of getting the picture altogether 12-month forward earnings, usually you're okay. in about six weeks' time from now, the 12-month forward period will be pushed ahead by three months that's kind of how this game works, the carrot extended further out in front of you. the only thing that matters after the first fed rate cut do

we get a recession the first six months the suggestion is we're not close to that. i guess that's why the market is able to make headway >> we'll go out with a new high, a new closing high record for the dow jones. stay tuned for cathie wood we haven't from the investors in the latest round well, she was she'll tell you why coming up next on "o.t.. sovereign's ringing the bell stocks higher, yields jumping as a pair of big question marks for investors gets answered today. we have a jobs surprise to the upside and a resolution to the port strike. the action is just getting started. i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt. >> ark ceo