commentary around net interest margins given this 50 basis point cut, then given the strong jobs report what the consumer outlook is >> and of course we get fomc minutes as well. so, it will be interesting to see what's in there. given the fact we did just get this stronger jobs report and al did reiterate the doc block. that does it for us at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now live in the nasdaq market in the heart of new york's times square, this is "fast money. what a difference one report makes. it's had a massive impact on expectations for the fed, what markets are saying now and what it will mean for investors and have we passed peak obesity. new data showing obesity rates are on the decline, the implications it could have on the economy and the health care space. plus why one analyst thinks shares of abercrombie and fitch are back in fashion.

and q3 earnings season is right around the corner. i'm melissa lee coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq we start off with the great rate rally. yields on 10-year treasuries hitting highest levels since august 9th and getting within a whisper of the 2% mark the moves coming after news the u.s. economy added 254,000 jobs in september, well above expectations, and their fastest pace since march the unemployment rate also unexpectedly dipped to 4.1%. those strong numbers suggest the fed does not have to be so aggressive with rate cuts this year the chance of a half point rate cut at its november meeting going for more than 30% yesterday to 0 now was this one report really enough to change expectations so drastically, tim did it change yours? >> no. zero is shocking to me because

0%, there's 0% -- there's so many things that there's not 0%. >> there's some. >> by the way, 0% expecting the mets to win last night, yet they did. we'll talk about that, i hope, later. not 0% steve and i might be on the different sides of the boat, as it flip flopped a little bit here i think they're going to cut you were saying you don't think they're going to cut the bottom line is it was a week where u.s. data, if you had the ism, the services part of the economy, the biggest part of the economy, hits 54.7, the unemployment rate which we know is a function not only of the numbers of people who have jobs but the number of people that participate in the survey going down to 4.1% is great news for a fed if you think 4.3 or 4.6 is the upper end of their bogey i don't think that much really changed other than reassurance that this economy wasn't falling off a cliff, that in fact the number we got for july that we got on august 2nd wasn't as bad as it looked there were upward revisions to those months that everybody thought were so weak

i don't think this means we're getting 250 a month from here on out either the jobless claims didn't tell us this number was going to be bad, and it wasn't it was solid good news is good news for equities i'd much rather see the 10-year at 4% and equities feeling the economy is in good shape and i think based on where you see so many outperformance going on in cyclical stuff, you stay there. >> what is the chance of a 25 basis point cut? that's probably the path of least resistance -- >> 99% >> that's what the market thinks the bigger question is why they cut 50 basis points in september. so, tim said the economy's not falling off a cliff. when you cut 50 basis points during the pandemic, during the financial crisis, and then in september of 2024, people think -- >> for what? because the economy didn't look so bad because it was time to start normalizing. >> they're overly restrictive though you can make an argument -- why

not go 50? if you were being overly cautious, you could have done 25 in july. >> a tremendous pivot to where -- i do think they were restrictive. i do think they were late. but the problem is to go 50, that really sends a signal when you've all -- you've set a precedent before the only times you went 50 were horrific times in the market >> what was this 50 about then >> this 50, i think, was trying to stay ahead of it or maybe pocketing -- they want to stay away from november, as i said, for different reasons. so, they pulled forward 25 maybe they do another 25 or 50 in december. maybe they stay away totally from november. >> i'm with you, steve why 50 and i'll add in the rhetoric around the recalibration of what they were looking at i think that introduces volatility to the market that i don't really think the fed wants. they were saying, listen, we're going to be focusing on backward looking data, we're going to take that, and march forward according to that data 50 to me indicate thad perhaps saw something in that recalibration looking add more forward-looking data that they wanted to get in front of.

i think it increases the probability that you're going to be on the wrong side of the rate trade. and if you're trying to stabilize and you're trying to get this goldilocks scenario, why would you introduce that added layer of volatility? >> so, you're saying that they cut on 50 because it's something they saw in the future, even though the backward-looking data looked okay to them? >> yes >> so, there's still something unknown that we don't know about that's going to come out >> that's my feeling it's like, listen, for me, it was always about getting on the right path forward inflation never got to 2%. it was headed towards 2 and that was a proper glide path. 50 to me indicates we're trying to get to equilibrium, rather than being on the path toward equilibrium. and you've seen it in the rate mark i don't think that's the volatility that you want going forward when you do still have the dmule mandate of full employment and lower inflation >> okay. so, i'm sitting at home and i'm investing in the markets and all i want to know is does it matter

that 25 basis points have been wiped off for the rest of the year in terms of rate cuts does that make a difference? we know we're going to get it at some point does it matter if it comes in november or december at this point? and isn't it better that the economy is doing better? a week ago or two weeks ago, we were lamenting the possibility that the jobs picture would deteriorate and that would weigh on the economy and here we are. it's like goldilocks is alive again. shouldn't we be celebrating? >> well, we should definitely be celebrating if the economy is doing better we should never be rooting for the economy to do poorly as for 50 basis points, you know, one of the things i would say, what difference does it really make if they cut 25 basis points versus 50 when the overnights are at 5% or thereabouts, right so, it really doesn't matter that much whether they moved it 25 or 50 the fed has a history of, sort of, being late to the game and they're not entirely to blame for this because

understand that they're setting policy as data comes at them but of course that's always looking at it in the rear-view mirror so, if you're driving down the freeway able to make your decisions based only on what's going on in the side windows and in your rear-view mirror, it's very easy to be late to the game so, it's understandable that if they're generally late and they start to see any signs of deterioration that are consistent from one month to another, they might say, hey, you know what? if we extrapolate this data a little bit, we can see we're in the declining trajectory and we should act aggressively. with 500 basis points in short-term rates, you actually have that latitude anyway. so, i don't think it makes that big a difference and investors should be happy that the economy is doing well >> i like that metaphor, the driving. >> the side view mirrors first of all, it's nice to know that mike's using the side view mirrors. >> do you not? you should always. and turn your head >> it's my favorite mirror, okay >> this comes from the person who drives the least on this

desk right now >> i like my mirrors >> our next guest doesn't think the stronger than expected jobs report will stop rate cuts fed watch adviser, ben, great to have you with us has your outlook changed >> no, it's not. i think what we saw today was obviously a surprise, and there was some alternative data out there that was indicating there could be a surge on the -- and seasonal hiring that's going on. if you really drill in today's report, there are weaknesses there too. the median unemployment is up to 22 weeks the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks alone was almost 23% of total unemployed. that's rising. that's somewhat of a deterioration. i think, to mike's point, looking in sideway mirrors, some issues there around the growing jobs report, the fed has to keep an eye on that part of the ball. and i think this one number

doesn't change our view just yet of the change of lower rates over time because they're restrictive, right i think it doesn't change my outlook. i think the make-up stays on the table. pricing completely out this rate cut for 50 base points i think you could come right back with weaker data from here. >> ben, do you forecast a period of increased volatility from now to the end of the year it does seem with every data point the swings of probability in fed funds futures have really been pretty wild >> yeah, i think he's right. i mean, just look at tlt, right? just look from the time they cut rates until now. tlt is down 5% so, you get in this big pop, today is down even more. i think it underscores the volatility of this -- data points, data points, and probability changing so, i think the fed has introduced volatility and the data itself.

i think the cycling of rate cuts to start the summer has come through the ism data now, all the forward looking indicators so, it keeps the market sensing, hey, this is the economy getting traction and in a moment there's one weak data point, right back in. so, i think you keep that volatility >> ben, today's numbers, though, and possibility this week's ism, change anything in terms of where you think we're going to be at the end of '25 and does it matter i think two weeks ago we were expecting 220 basis points of cuts in 2025 no matter what happened and if we have a better economy here, should that come in? and again we know the fed fund futures markets move all over the place as well. but does it change anything about how you're looking, kind of, medium-term? >> i think medium-term, the markets will land around 3.5%. that's, sort of, your long-term rate they've done that since march of 2022 when they started raising rates. that, i think, hasn't changed. that number, by the way, didn't

change today much either so, it's more about how quickly this affect will get there a number like this, you don't have to get so quick to 3.5. i think the fed is on a trajectory to bring rates down because they're simply too restrictive. the difference between the funds rate and the inflation, it tends to widen it's, again, a touch softer, makes the real rate higher i think that's what the fed looks at cut that real rate down. so, i think the destination between the half is there. how fast they're going to get there, that's, i think, the question so, i think this fed is going to continue maybe on a 25 basis point trajectory for the next meeting. but it wants to get to a lower rate that's clear, i think. >> ben, why are they still doing quantitative tightening on the balance sheet? granted the treasury securities have gotten down from 60 billion per month to 25, nbs has stayed the same isn't that a push/pull though

with tightening and being dovish on the other side? >> i think quantitative tightening is always put in the background for fed it works and let it be and based on this strategy, you remember, right, at some point in 2018, that did backfire when the fed got a little too hawkish. we're now on the other side of this with this fed more dovish, so to speak, or willing to lower rates, they think they can continue with the quantitative tightening but they know how this will affect themselves. there's a threshold in the amount of liquidity in the system that they have to maintain so, i don't think they're too far off from that threshold. i think it will phase out here in the next one to two quarters. i don't think they want to keep that going because you see this volatility coming from the balance sheet itself, right? so, that, i think, is something on my mind >> ben, always great to speak with you thank you. >> thank you >> ben emons of fed watch.

so, mike, what are you anticipating in terms of the volatility that we'll see over the next month or two? >> are you talking about rate volatility or equity market -- >> equity market, sorry. >> yeah, equity market volatility -- i mean, first of all, there's a decent amount baked in the first november expiration that captures the election, you know, we see implied volatility. so, what the s&p options market is anticipating is probably about 15% higher than the first expiration prior to it so, the election alone is going to be contributing to it and of course then rates and things like that are also going to contribute to it. we tend to get, sort of, blinders on when it comes to economic data and thinking about rates. today it's non-pharm payrolls. but of course we've got cpi which isn't necessarily what the fed is going to be watching. they're going to be looking towards pce at the end of the month. we have inflation data we need to keep our eyes on too. the same things as we're seeing here, with the market chopping around on these things, investors are reactive

i think we should anticipate higher volatility in the coming months than maybe we saw during the summer months. >> i tend to echo a lot of the sentiments while i agree with trading -- 25 or 50 basis points in a vacuum don't really make a lot of a difference but i will say my point remains the same that if the point is going to make it a point to signal to the market so that there is a smooth type of transition as we've gone through a very restrictive to now more dovish policy, it makes very little sense to me to introduce additional volatility if you've gone out of your way to be somewhat forthright with the market >> meantime, mortgage rates also jumping in the back of the jobs report the 30-year now back up above 6.5% the prospect of higher rates taking a toll on home builders all down more than 2%. this captures the swings in sentiment based on the 10-year treasury yield >> last week i thought these home builders were never better

position this is the sensitivity this has shown. -- certainly before the fed started cutting. if i'm looking for interest rate sensitive trades, i think it's fascinating and it's corroborated by what we hear from some of the people that come on this desk. the real estate markets possibly are at least finding some bottom whether it's commercial real estate what do you do with that interest rate sensitivity as it relates to regional banks, looking at reits, what does this mean for the utility strait, which has so many drivers that are secular and demands around a.i. and data center but also build out. so, those are the trades that i think are a lot more interesting. i think with home builders, they've had a monstrous move and it tells you people are looking for reasons to sell on days like today. >> if you look at the mortgage rates, you know these stats. 85% of people with mortgages have a mortgage below 6% 50% have a mortgage below 4% it's going to take a long way to get people out of their home

you own a mortgage you don't own a home that's a head wind for all of these home builders. >> mike, what are you seeing it's interesting because home depot -- i got a call from guggenheim today, the price got raised to 450 to 390 people have the jobs still and the money to do renovations and spend. >> so, we've underbuilt for a long time. so, we have a housing shortage that obviously would create a tail wind for the home builders. what steve was just talking about essentially refers to those people who are going to be effectively locked in their homes. but that does not mean that there's no room for home builders because that's really going to affect existing home sales. that doesn't mean there won't be a demand for new homes so, to me, yeah, i'm bullish on home depot, which by the way is trading at evaluation that's cheaper than it did for a number of years so, it's at the lower end of the range, and i think that's fine the home builders also are not trading at hugely rich valuations, although i should point out that they never do

there's always this other shoe to drop where everybody thinks the bottom is going to fall out of the housing market and things tend to trade cheap. and they still do. but we need houses and if existing home sales aren't going to be the place where people find them, then the home builders are still going to find some demand, even if it is at higher prices >> so, there's a pretty cogent argument out there i believe when we pivot away from restrictive to dovish policy that was saying builders don't perform well in six to 12 months thereafter home builders have traded pretty well to mike's point, the supply/demand dynamic is still there. and steve made the great point that i don't really see a lot of incentive for people to move if you're getting free money because you have an interest rate arbitrage between 3.5% and 5.5%, you don't have incentive to move, particularly if you

have concerns about the labor market going forward i think while builders are fully priced here, i don't think it's a reason to run away from that sector >> let's say this on home depot and even lowe's. home depot, that's a breakout from 39 a. this is a chart when they last reported, those u.s. comps are in negative territory. the question is where can that guy change i think the stock is pricing in much more guidance i think you're taking the trade and buying the buyout. j.p. morgan sending abercrombie and finch soaring. plus rivian slamming on the brakes why the ev maker is slashing delivery expectations right after this

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welcome back to "fast money. time for our call of the day shares of abercrombie and finch popping -- list of positive catalyst stocks, citing momentum for brand outside its usual teenage demographic and positive impact of fewer promotions slightly raising the price target to 195 a share. that is more than 33% upside from today's close this stock had been eamon administer the previous year,

a monster up until the end of may or so and has not done as well >> this is something when you talk about a roller coaster, this brings it back. their price structure brings it back to june levels where it was, $193. this is one where people really -- i didn't mean the pun, but now i realize the pun -- lose their shirt on. you can wind up sitting in it and watching it fall they kept their overweight on it, as you said. they're bullish on their price target and they're probably going to drag a lot of buyers into it >> nobody here on the desk laughed at your joke, but -- >> it wasn't supposed to be -- i said i didn't mean the pun >> i'm saying mike enjoyed your humor. >> thanks, mike. >> also unusual options, activity, mike >> it traded two times daily average in pretty good quantity.

and i suspect that exactly the dynamic steve was talking about probably helps explain some of the activity we saw today. calls did outpace puts you're going to see that on the news that you get where one of the major banks sits there and reaffirms or puts a buy on a stock, like they did here. the other thing, though, is we did see pretty big trades in the 145 puts i suspect that is hedging activity for people saying, look, i just got a 12+ dollar pop in a single day. this thing is chopping around here you're converting long stocks when you do that the flow was bullish but in a more hedged way. and the other thing i would say is there is a down trend here, and we haven't quite crossed out of that down trend yet we're basically right on the verge. so, if we see it break out, that's obviously good news it still has a little bit of work to do to confirm. >> on the technical side, following up on mike's point, i think the low 130s, high 120s is where they had a little bit of support over the last year after

peaking in july. management came out and said, listen, there's going to be perhaps turbulence going forward. and i think that might have also led to the selloff for the most part in terms of branding with professional sport -- sorry, in terms of partnerships with professional sports, this name is really flown under the radar in terms of you thinking of high flying, high multiple names that have had that real performance this year abercrombie is there and that has flown in the face of all the concerns we've had about the consumer complex, all the concerns about retailers this pullback might be an opportunity to get in the name and diversify away from the concentrated pockets >> it had until its all-time high at may 29th or so and now it's 50 bucks lower. >> he's right to point out the volatility in the space. some of these producers have had structural issues in the past. abercrombie has reincented itself three or four times in the last six years and there's been different dynamics. speaking of ralph lauren, they

got a huge boost from china. the china news was not only a sentiment change, but for somebody that gets 10% of its sales from china, i like ralph here there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> the country might be slimming down the numbers and what they mean for the health care space. plus, rivian in reverse. the ev maker slashing production targets and missing delivery expectations inside the latest disruption in an uncertain electric vehicle landscape, next. you're watching "fast money" tes from the nasdaq market site inim square. inim square. we're back right after this. ♪ i'm gonna love you forever ♪ ♪ ♪ c'mon, bear. ♪ you don't...you don't have to worry... ♪

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of rivian stalling today after the ev maker slashed its forecast due to a component shortage the company also missing delivery expectations by nearly 3,000 cars the stock down more than 50% this year. so, where is this ev trade headed from here part of it is just the malaise in the ev space. part of it is rivian specific. >> i think a lot of it is rivian

specific and how can you have a supply issue that sneaks up on you like this this seems -- and they're building them in this country. so, that, to me -- the problem is, if you read through it, they have share parts with their commercial unit and the r-1 unit that probably should have been seen coming down the pike. having said all that, the chart is horrendous, terrible. but don't you think this was a kitchen sink event now when you're setting up for -- obviously if they just can't perform and they can't produce and they're plagued with all these issues, longer term, it's going to go down. but i think they set it up so that on earnings day you're looking for a pop in the name. >> you better get a pop. i mean, you better get a pop i don't think that this company really has the luxury -- i mean, they could step back you've essentially seen all of the historic auto producers come back and pull back their numbers or commitment to ev by 2030 or whatever the number was, whether

it's gm, ford, et cetera and you look at the incumbents in the ev space, rivian doesn't really have the luxury of having, whether it be a demand or supply issue. and i have concerns that the supply bottleneck actually is a demand issue because what would make them any different from the rest of the ev complex, where we've seen either promotional activity or methods to cost cut to produce a new lower cost vehicle? so, i don't know i see trouble on the horizon here perhaps it is a kitchen sink, but i don't really see the pop you think may exist. >> let me preface this i'm not saying they're out of the woods. what i'm saying is to get this news out now going forward, we already know what the issue is >> got it. >> we already know where the guidance, where they lowered it. so, right now it's a very low bar to walk over >> understood, understood. >> the issue really is we don't know about their longer-term guidance forecasts for the fourth quarter, which happened to be positive gross profit margin and that's in jeopardy at this

point. that's when investors are saying, maybe that doesn't materialize. then what are we waiting for >> how can we know if they don't know you know in other words, that's part of the story here and yet we all remember when this was $150 stock or whatever it was and it just tells you how far offsides people can get on names like this. i think it's right to focus on cash burn and balance sheets i think people forget they have possibly the most interesting strategic partners in business, partners that will be a source both of demand and certainly in and my guess is there's someone waiting there. the technology is pretty impressive i'm not looking to run by this i'm just saying we do get to a point at some point where people have counted this one done >> back to tesla then. you know, one of the bear cases, at least the beginning of the year, mike, and even before that was all the competition. and it seems all the competition has been fall big the wayside, whether it be legacy oems or rivals like -- which when it went public was viewed as the

main competition for tesla selling pickup trucks, or the most popular cars in the country electrified. does it make the tesla story even better at this point, especially with robotaxi event coming up? >> absolutely. first of all, tesla is the only company in the space in the united states at least that is actually selling evs profitably. and, you know, that's -- toyota was absolutely right on this they were basically on the legacy auto maker side saying, you know, evs are not the place for us and you can see that in toyota's inventory levels they have the lowest in the industry among the legacy companies. on the ev side, you basically have two big winners you've got byd in china and you've got tesla here. tesla has beendoing better in china than a lot of people thought, and that's with byd's far far lower costs. if you're going to be in the ev space, tesla is the only place you can, to me as far as the partnerships were concerned, like tim was talking about, one of the reasons that volkswagen would want to partner

with rivian is because the legacy automakers have been burned trying to go into the ev space. they've thrown a lot of money at this problem and it hasn't gotten better. a wiser choice would be to say, okay, here's companies that have good technology, we like it. we'll go in with them. we'll share the burden and i think that's what's going on here. coming up, cathie wood, what she has to say about the a.i. boom next. first, have we hit peak obesity? the shocking number showing americans are slimming down. what that data means for the darling, eli lilly and know vo noer tis after this.

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and vista jumping another 4.5% the supreme court declined to pause the epa's coal plan toxic emissions rule vista up the last 20 sessions. therapeutics gaining -- and finally check out arcade yum lithium. reports in just the last hour saying mining giant rio tinto is in talks to acquire the company in a deal that could be valued between 4 and $6 billion race for commodities here. tim, on china, what do you make of this? we've seen the massive run in abba bah, for instance, the massive run in casinos >> i like bhp and rio tinto here they're names that are paying great defensividends the china trade this week was fascinating. i sold actually 115 calls on baba in the middle of last week

that closed out this week. i still own the stock. i feel like the volatility was something worth playing. i want to own alibaba long-term. and if i got called away, i'm sure i would have been a buyer i do think you have a dynamic where you're going to start to see people follow through. i mentioned about the casinos, 33, 35% move in wynn this is something i think has given the analysts a chance to look at those valuations that are 50% discounted to where they were pre-covid and say at some point we don't even need china to be booming. meantime, a new op-ed in the financial times suggests the united states may have hit the peak of its obesity epidemic newly released data finds that since 2020 there has been a down trend in the percent of americans who are overweight, thanks to drugs that, quote, almost my magic, remove the requirement for human will power. sounds like an ad for eli lilly's drugs.

-- what lower obesity rates could mean for health care overall. jared, great to have you with us this is good news for america, for our society, for our health care costs, which we all pay for. have we factored that in to how we look at pharma companies? i know when glp-1s first came on the scene, there's immediate discount to sleep apnea devices and things like that is it time now to realistically start thinking about the future? >> yeah, it totally is thanks so much for having me yeah, the study today on the obesity rates, i mean, it's so logical when we, kind of, think about the assent of the glp-1 category and when you line it up against the pandemic, there were clearly some behavioral patterns that probably changed in 2020 through now that's aiding the numbers that we're seeing. but, yeah, i mean, even with what "the financial times" came

out with today, we're looking at a population just in the united states of 100 million people that are still obese so, we're just at the precipice of really talking about what this actually means and just going back to some of the data sets over the past couple of years that have been very, very profound and sleep apnea, diabetes, hypertension, other cardio and metabolic diseases, yes. we don't know what the long-term implications are, but they seem incredibly positive. so, we just really need to wait until patients are on these drugs for longer >> we all know that it takes many, many years to develop drugs. so, in terms of what companies are betting on now, you know, would you say that the better bet, so to speak, would not be necessarily on things that lower blood pressure or cardiovascular, when the root cause of so many of those problems are being addressed by glp-1s and maybe better would be to bet on diseases of the central nervous system if you are living longer,

chances are that longer life will entail some mental deterioration? >> it's a really interesting concept to see how pharma and biotech navigate what is certainly going to be, you know, a different way in which patients are treated and some of the underlying medical conditions that they get or don't get over the medium to long term. haven't really heard pharma companies talk about it yet as far as whether they're going to de-emphasize or prioritize away from drugs in the cardiovascular space or sleep apnea space, et cetera but i would guess that over time as the data continue to look really good here and lilly and novo report other studies that are going to, i believe, read out positively, you are going to see that i mean, the neurological, you know, or neuroscience aspect, i think i can agree with, to some extent, we just have to, kind of, see, you know, again, how

long patients are on drug for and what the health benefits are longer term here >> shorter term, eli lilly is going to report shortly, and noef nordisk as well there are real concerns about the third quarter. we have seen -- has been struggling for some time >> i think novo has been down nine of the past 11 days since the oral cb-1 data came out i think exactly two weeks ago. so, that one is tricky a lot of analysts out there are lowering estimates for lilly and novo, and the stocks have been incredibly weak, especially versus other large cap pharma stocks i think a lot is baked in here we'll see what happens the volatility in these two stocks, you know, is something we really haven't seen before in pharma, at least on a day-to-day basis. but i would think if there's a little bit more weakness into

mid to late october, there's going to be a good buying opportunity at some point. and for novo, especially, the valuation is t getting very compelling i think the stock is trading right around 25 times on next year's numbers and we know the growth profile accompany is extraordinary 25 times doesn't seem like a lot. >> and lilly's new cfo is out there in the market in a recent analyst meeting saying they think long-term margin in the high 40s is sustainable, jared so, related to that, but it was a fascinating week in terms of the compounders. and lilly has been very outspoken about action against it just thoughts on this and what this has meant obviously for those compounders, what it means for lilly, what it means for novo >> for sure, tim i think, you know, based on what we're seeing as far as the supply shortages or lack thereof, and they've been trying to fix them over time, just the astounding amount of manufacturing capacity that the

companies have added since the beginning of the year, you know leads me to believe that as we go into 2025, we're no longer dealing with a situation where you have these drugs that have been constrained i think it frees up a lot of capacity and it's going to free up use so, as it affects the compounders, i would think that for patients that are on existing drug from compounders that want to continue, that's probably fine. but in terms of the incremental patient, they're probably going to go to lilly or novo at this point, unless there's a really good reason not to and it's tough to really, you know, invent a reason other than the supply chain, which seems like it's being fixed. i think it's good for the pharma companies and not so good for the competitors, as we look into next year. >> jared, always nice to speak with you thank you. >> thank you coming up on the record, cathie wood making predictions about the potential opportunities in a.i we'll have more on what she had to say and earnings season is upon

us again big banks set to report next week, jpmorgan and wells fargo leading the charge we'lta t k nbe tl lkheeyumrso watch and much more.

welcome back to "fast

money. increasing investment in a.i. yesterday, making the company is third largest holding in the ark venture fund cathie wood was just on "closing bell: overtime." here's what she had to say about the opportunities in a.i >> we've been waiting for the companies that were -- really that nvidia was going to hand the baton to we think there are going to be other winners. we think that the foundation model players are going to be very big winners 15 to $20 trillion in market cap in the next five to ten years. >> all right well, that's an interesting concept in terms of the players. we just had the ceo of proplexty on yesterday, and the competition is really fierce at this point i mean, everybody's getting the dollars in now but at some point, people are going to be choosing what they prefer to use, i would think >> it's -- there's no question about it the best and the brightest and

also some of the smartest investors in the world are lining up to be in deals again, it's hard for me to know when i hear a statement about that, what they've paid, what the lockup is, ultimately what the underlying investors own these don't trade publicly, so you'll never really know that. the dynamic here is something that is fascinating. it's a place -- it's a hot area to be investing in but i think we haven't really been able to understand what valuations should look like. >> on the other hand you've got nvidia where you do understand the valuation. people are still questioning it, mike >> well, yeah. i mean, so on the valuation on open a.i., the number that was getting bantered about is under 160 billion and it is believable it could be worth that or a higher number? i think so some of the rivals' opportunities -- that's not really a public markets conversation i wasn't crazy about the reported comments sam aldman was making that he only wanted people to invest and back them alone and not their rivals

that seems look a dangerous situation to have only one supported a.i. company nvidia at the moment still has the demand for their products. and, you know, if there's going to be support for companies like open a.i. and their rivals, that means there's going to be continued demand for the products that essentially are doing all the churning on this so, that supports vst, by the way, which you were talking about earlier. >> that also sounds like, you know, this is almost like buying an etf when you own nvidia, they're going to own pieces of all of these a.i. companies to a certain extent so i'd rather -- but you're going to get a muted position just like in an etf, you get a small percentage of it if nvidia, to mike's point, is still king of the hill, you're going to get fractions of ownership on a lot of these. when they start proving themselves, then you can buy the specific companies that are successful >> i expect cathie wood's take on innovation. i think the lower rate environment is definitely

supportive of her strategy >> i love that, i love that. >> i respect her >> you know i love you, but -- >> drop the hammer >> i just think it's tough to pick a basket of winners and you've seen that before. the spacs have all gone the way of the dodo bird, non-existent private equity valuations have, kind of, come down and the pathway to either going public or having additional acquisition is just longer in the tooth. so, i do think there's a place to own a portfolio i want to own it because i want diversity to that. to be the retail investment that we saw only in that pocket, i think you've got to diversify a bit away from that coming up, the countdown to big bank earnings season is on jpmorgan kicks things off on friday next, more "fast money" in twohe neinsurance policy of $100,000he or more she can sell all or

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welcome back to "fast money. jpmorgan kicking off its big bank earnings alongside wells fargo next week. those names plus morgan stanley jumping on the back of this week's jobs reports. what are you seeing there? >> now for actually a whole month we've seen bullish calls

outpacing puts right now the options markets implying a move of about 4% we were seeing upside call buying some institutional buyers were buying the december 230 calls, a little over $2.40 a contract so, risking just a little bit more than 1% to make a bullish bet that this thing could continue higher through the end of the year. >> the -- master weighed in yesterday with a note saying jpmorgan's chart didn't look too good how are you feeling, tim >> what doesn't look too good to me is the valuation. i care less about the chart. carter's work on that stuff is usually right on i think if you look at the consensus on the streets at $2.14, that's usually a lagging number that doesn't mean a lot you look at the price to book, this thing is hardly cheap the one thing i'll say is why it's very expensive is that it's a very diversified model in the environment we have right now where the labor market is not falling apart and commercial real estate is doing better, i

think jpmorgan is going to be one of the better -- of cash they're all playing chunky dibs, and i know that's not a reason to buy a stock but for a long time -- >> up next, final trades ♪♪ ♪♪ sandals jamaica sale is now on, visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals

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final trade time mike >> pdd, stay long, be long >> tim >> how about that polar bear last night >> i couldn't believe it >> freeport, i think we might see something there. >> so fuzz i did >> for the short-term, jetblue i think spirit's pain is their

gain >> steve >> uber. and if you look at the chart, it doesn't look like a screaming buy. i'm still long in it and if you look at mobility, food delivery, freight, they're so well diversified. i'm staying in the trade i think it goes much higher. >> polar bear is not really a polar bear thank you for watching "fast hey, i'm cramer. welcome to matt money. welcome to cramer america. i'm just trying to make you a little bit of money. my job is to educate and teach you. call me at -- tweak me at jim cramer. good news today, turned out to be good news. the