activist position in pfizer. it's monday, october 7th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. on this morning, we are looking at some pretty significant downdrafts in the futures. this morning, it looks like the dow futures are off 210 points. s&p futures down 36. nasdaq down by 141. that does come after a pretty strong performance that we are watching. stocks were up on friday after stronger than expected jobs data. the dow was actually up 341 points. it closed at a new high. the s&p was up .90.

the nasdaq up 1.2%. it is now four weeks in a row the major averages have seen gains. financials have seen their best day since february on friday. if you look at treasuries, the ten-year is back at 4%. it's been a while. 4% for the ten-year. the two-year at 3.99. just below that. all of those things happening last week, energy saw the best week since october of 2022. we will follow all of this as we get into the trading morning. let's talk about the trading planner. the fed in focus. wednesday, we get minutes from the fed meeting and the cpi and jobless claims on thursday and earnings on friday. tomorrow, we hear from pepsi and delta airlines and then the big banks and jpmorgan and wells fargo and blackrock.

boeing is set to return to the table today to find some common ground reaching recently or failing to reach that agreement on some of the very key issues in the presence of federal mediators. 33,000 of the planemakers factory workers are on strike as they deal with massive debt which is a worsening cash burn and threat of losing the investment grade rating. another fallen angel, i guess. pfizer. you look at where the stock is. activist starboard value has taken a $1 billion stake in this $29 stock. it is seeking to mount a turn around at the struggling company according to sources familiar with the matter that say the activist has approached former pfizer ceo ian reid and both express interest in supporting starboard's turn around efforts.

it might have some fiospfizer l. the current leadership under ceo albert bourla has stepped away from the disciplined cost structure in novel drugs. a pfizer spokesperson declined to comment on speculation of the rumor. there's no doubt. >> companies are very hard for activists to do well in in terms of very few financial engineering things you can do with the drug company. >> if you haven't invested in new drugs and all your bets on covid and the response of covid and vaccine for covid. >> the other things. >> where is the weight close? >> they failed on the weight loss. it didn't work. they invested heavily in cancer drugs and they're still two or three or four or five years out from knowing if it will work. the reason i say it is

complicated to see an activist in a drugmaker to make a drugmaker successful. you need to make investments. it is not dividends back to shareholders or breaking companies up or doing something. you actually have -- this is an operational story and typically with a pharmaceutical company, it is a long term story. you cannot right the ship in two years. >> i remember when nelson peltz was approaching some targets and some people said what do you know? was it disney or what do you want to do exactly besides what you said? more buybacks or this, that or other thing. it does help. for a drug company? if you are average activist, what do you know about r& d or where you should place your bets for the future? >> that's what i mean. it's going to be a hard one. maybe part of their argument is -- there are some activists that have gotten involved things

and hung around for a very long time. we critique the carl icahns of the world, but the time of stock was in longer. maybe starboard gets in and they bring him in and but him on the board and at least force the hand of the company to rethink leadership. i don't know if you think this is the wrong leadership. >> do you remember during the pandemic when basically they brought these vaccines out and stopped everything at the company and focused on this and did things that people said were not possible. you could never get through the regulatory process that quickly and never bring something to market. bourla was hailed as a hero for rallying the troops and getting them to do something that no one thought was possible in that amount of time. under a year, year and a half. >> i remember carl, whether he looked into things, carl icahn. i remember with king.

he said i was shaving and i heard on cnbc about cancer. what? that was enough of his due diligence to figure out he wanted to do something there. >> this was a transaction. >> right. i'm not sure any of these guys think that long and hard about. it can be a gut instinct. it worked for carl. >> sometimes gut instincts come over decades and decades of business experience and reading through filings. that may be with buffett. he may have read something in the bathtub, but then he spent decades reading all these things. >> this shows you why activists are circling pfizer. and rio tinto addressed lithium producer arcadium.

only god can make lithium. lithium prices have been under pressure. rio tinto had been waiting for lithium downturn to pursue a merger and acquisition in something related to the metal ty which is an important component in ev batteries. >> lithium is found in salt lakes. >> you can't make it. you can mine it. >> i was thinking about the geological forces. >> some day we may be able to make it. fusion. former president trump returned to butler, pennsylvania on saturday night. that is the site of the rally where he was shot in the ear in the assassination attempt back in july. trump declared the farm grounds

a hallowed place. >> for 16 harrowing seconds, time stopped as this monster unleashed pure evil from his sniper's perch not so far away, but by the hand of providence and the grace of god, that villain did not succeed in his goal. >> elon musk was on hand and spoke to the crowd. >> text people now. now! and then make sure they actually do vote. if they don't, this will be the last election. that's my prediction. nothing's more important. nothing's more important. >> also in attendance, hedge fund billionaire john paulson and investor steve whitkoff.

>> he showed up at the steelers game, elon musk, with the terrible towel. you can read ceedee lamb and what he is saying to dak prescott. he is screaming at him after a bad interception. at the very end, the terrible towel waving of elon musk did not help. was that a bad game for you? we have big steelers fans in the control room. what's wrong? you mad about elon going to trump's thing? >> no, he's allowed to make his voice known. i thought it was surprising he turned at the end. a lot of democrats would say they fear that democracy is on the line and there won't be another election. it was very interesting to hear him say he thought that this was the last election. >> you remember the poll that

said more people are worried about democrats ending democracy over republicans? it shouldn't be a total surprise that both sides are worried. >> i had not seen that poll. >> you can check it out. >> i need to check it out. >> it is interesting how you talk about michael jordan says republicans buy sneakers. they buy teslas, too. >> david faber used the "f" word over -- >> yeah. >> yeah. he didn't hesitate. he said it six other times. >> he said it a lot. >> anyway, he was in pennsylvania and from there headed to -- by the way, did you, anyone, buehler, did you see the mets? it was almost like the carlton

fisk game. >> i was at basketball games all weekend. i didn't see it. >> people were talking about it. now it's 1-1. it's the best of three series. >> it was 5-1. >> they came storming back, the phillies. the mets came storming back. it was -- it was -- it had everything in it. castiallos' son was there. walk-off. his son was so excited. >> i'm not a mets fan. >> you give steve cohn credit for this. >> i am. i'm giving credit to post-season baseball is better than anything, i think. during the regular season, it's not. i don't think nfl or nba can do it or anything.

>> basketball is better. i watched a couple games. >> if you'r kid's playing, thats better. we will get you ready for the key inflation data and the earnings season. "squawk box" is coming right "squawk box" is coming right back of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. >> announcer: squawk planner is sponsored by ameriprize financial. hn reese, jr. -how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister's told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. honey... but the gains are pumping! the market's closed. futures don't sleep in the after hours, bro. dad, is mommy a “finance bro?” she switched careers to make money for your weddings. ooh! penny stocks are blowing up. sweetie, grab your piggy bank, we're going all in. let me ask you. for your wedding,

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busy week ahead for the markets with inflation data and bank earnings on the agenda. joining us now is sylvia jablonski. even thoughwe've seen, i don't know whether you call it anxiety or maybe skepticism, about the 50-basis point cut in relation to the jobs number we saw on friday, you're taking it at face va value, sylvia, earnings under control. it's all a green light for you for stocks? >> it's all a green light for now. u.s. job numbers beat expectations. the consumer will likely continue to spend which will feed the economy. the s&p is up 8% which added 8 trillion to market cap. it is hard to argue it is a bad

year and recession is looming. i think earnings are strong and the fed is favorable and supportive of markets with the last rate cut is projected to be the same depending on data going forward. i think earnings are looking pretty good. we are expecting 4.7% growth year over year. people are working. jobs are strong and earnings are good. i think that bodes well for a soft landing into a bull market into the end. barring any kind of major issue, which we do have some caveats there with the middle east. we don't know what happens there. barring that kind of escalating beyond further what he we expec the market could end up rallying. >> how do you explain that the fed thought it was necessary to go 50 basis points with some of the recent numbers now? we didn't know, the fed didn't know, obviously, the friday

employment report was going to be. does that make sense to have some much of their concern now aimed at the employment picture rather than the flinflation picture? >> i think it's a tough, tough call for the fed. i don't envy their position. we kind of criticize the fed for not jutcutting in july with the data they had which looked to be looming for job stability. now here we are with a positive read. you said uh-oh, you overdid it. i think it was the right move on their part given the data they had at the time and going forward, they will be data dependent and look at every read going forward here. they may change with what is happening in the middle east with oil prices and how that impacts inflation and the strike of the longshoremen is put off for a while. some of these things could turn

inflation the other way. i think the fed will be data dependent. they will do given what they had in front of them for july and june. we'll see. >> what does it mean about the next meeting or meeting after that? would you cut again? would you pause? would you do 50 again? what do you think or is that once again data dependent? >> yeah, i think it's data dependent when you had a jobs number like on friday, it is tough to cut again at 50. i think it would be reasonable for the fed to potentially do nothing or a smaller 25-basis point cut and wait and see. i would not expect 50 given the data on friday. the data's too good to cut 50. >> is it going to be the same old leadership and trade higher given tech stocks and the big names? >> you know, i love the tech

stocks and the big names, but the dollar cost averaging on pull backs. when you have market events like today and potential hits to the nasdaq, i like to go into those names. overall, i do think it's time to diversify portfolios and look at the ex-mag. the s&p 500 and top names. you talked about eli lilly and pfizer and putting up a chart in the last segment. eli lilly is a great stock. you have the price of oil spiking and things like this. in general, if rates are coming down, maybe we don't get that next 50, but rates come down 50 and they will be coming down over time. you have a case for small caps and midcaps to rally. the unloved s&p 500, although the mag seven has been performing. i think it is worth investors to diversify their portfolio for

the longer term here sg. >> what about the russell versus blue chips and s&p versus international. all boats well rise? what about china? did you see david tepper? >> yeah, i don't think all boats will rise. i look at the quality small cap names. you still have a lot of solid large cap blue chip quality balance sheet companies that pay great dividends. it is worth having that diversification there. china remains to be seen. we see the short-term rally. they are essentially easing supporting their economy there. we have to see what happens there. the second largest economy. that helps us. if you think of exxon and chevron, the ex-mag in the second largest economy starts to grow, you get growth there, too. i think it's worth it to start diversifying out, too. japan was a good diversifier,

now perhaps it's china with the stimulus coming in. maybe the mag five of europe is interesting to look at in the univers indices that have been sleepers for a few years >> sylvia jablonski right out of the gate here on monday. i appreciate it. >> have a great day. coming up in a minute, a disappointing box office debut for "joker the sequel." we'll bring you details about that after the break.

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estimates were closer to $70 million. as reviews came in, it slumped. the budget was reportedly $200 million. that doesn't include marketing costs which can double that figure, but often times you look at the budget, it could be a $300 million project. the first "joker" brought in $1 billion during the box office run. maybe they feel like there was wiggle room in all of this. >> the -- the, i heard it's not a musical, but musical numbers in it with lady gaga. >> it's not moulan rouge. >> i had friends who went to see it and said the same. >> watching the trailer and

joaquin phoenix in it and i thought i want to see it. a three-minute trailer is different than a two and a half hour movie if you have no plot. i'm not sure it needed -- the original "joker" the way it ended -- you still haven't seen it? >> i don't want to based on what you told me. it's not my thing. >> it conjures up the distopian. >> i know people who bought tickets. >> it is a psychological horror movie and you feel for this kid becoming who he is. when we come back, hurricane milton strengthening to a category 2 storm overnight. it is set to hit the west coast of florida later this week and we have the details on this next. later,e ll t wwialk about the recovery from hurricane helene with republican congress member chuck edwards from north

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. you are looking at the dow off 195 points. nasdaq looking to open down 135 points. the s&p 500 looking to open off about 35 points as well. meantime, preparations are under way as another hurricane pushes to the florida coastline. hurricane milton is a category 2 storm. it is likely to strengthen to a category 4, but weaken back to a category 3 at landfall. the storm is expected to bring a potentially life threatening storm surge and damaging winds and torrential rain. we will have to keep our eyes on that after hurricane helene and all of the damage that has caused. new analysis this morning about the economic plans from former president trump and vice

president kamala harris. megan cassella has that story. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, joe. we're talking today about the fiscal impact of the plans. the headline here is the debt goes up under either candidate. trump's plan adds twice the debt that harris would. that is according to the committee for responsible budget budget. her plan would add $5 trillion to the debt and his would add $7 trillion. harris' plan costs less and raise more. her biggest line item is the plan to extend the 2017 tax cuts for anyone making less than $400,000 a year. expanding the child tax credit would cost $1.4 trillion. that is offset by the corporate tax rate which brings in $900 billion. the plans to tax capital would raise $850 billion. for trump, extending the 2017 tax cuts in full cost $5.4

trillion. eliminating tax on overtime and social security would cost $3.3 trillion. the tariffs would be his main source of revenue. that would bring in $2.7 trillion. his plans to expand energy production and drill for more oil would raise $1 billion. and one more point because someone would ask about this, this does not take into account the changes to gdp except for a few areas. the tax cuts on the trump said, when faster growth is taken into account, the cost does fall, but $800 billion. leaving the overall cost of the tax cuts alone at $4.6 trillion on the trump side. joe. >> did any unrealized capital gains assume would pass? that's not in here? >> they talked about that in the tax on capital income section. it is there.

they said that billionaire mil minimum tax did put that in there. there are a lot of caveats in here. they have to make a lot of assumptions on both sides. that's in there. >> megan, at the end, i love this. campaign plans are often more vague than what we know. estimating policies is not an exact science. under the analysis, trump's deficits could be as low as $1.45 trillion or as high as $15 trillion. so, it's somewhere between 1 trillion and 15. for harris, it's still from break even -- it's still double. it could be as low as break even to as high as $1.8 trillion. i like trump's deficits could be 1.45 trillion or maybe 15.15

trillion. it doesn't give me a lot of faith. i tell you what really would blowout trump's thing, megan, you extend the tax cuts and you take away the s.a.l.t. cap. that's the only way you are able to pay for the tax cuts in the first place was the s.a.l.t. cap. >> right. i think that's right. obviously, huge ranges here, joe. what they do get into in the conclusion is neither candidate is doing anything in lip service of addressing the debt. although harris, as you said, her low cost estimate is just break even, they still say that's not good enough. they want both candidates and parties to be looking at the debt because the trajectory it's on. get-to-gdp ratio. the baseline estimate within ten years we are already getting to 125%. the harris estimate gets us to 133% and trump to 142%.

trump, that is when the economists get worried. that's the path we're on right now. >> and i don't know, megan, i believe a lot of the harris -- to assume that trump tariffs go in and assume she gets all her tax cuts goes through. neither one is likely to happen. either way, this is a non-partisan organization. they are concerned about the extra trajectory the country is on regardless. >> that's right. joe, thanks. >> thanks, megan. when we come back, we will talk about fears of escalating violence in the middle east a year after the hamas terrorist mitacks on october 7th. adral james stavridis will join us.

and you can follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app and listen any privtime. we'll be right back.

today marks one year since the hamas terrorist attacks against israel. in jerusalem, a siren rang out at 6:25 a.m. to mark the hour that hamas started the october attack last year. joining us right now is admiral john stavridis. he is now global affairs vice chair and nbc news analyst. his book is called "the restless wave." it is out tomorrow. admiral, thank you for joining us on this day. it is amazing to think it's been a year. what would you say has changed over the course of the year? where do we stand now? >> let's start with the human cost, becky. 1,200 israelis killed and 40,000

palestinians. when you put it on the adjusted basis, israel is a country of 10 million. maybe 5 million palestinians in and around the region. those numbers are astronomical in terms of human cost. secondly, the events have really put the palestinian statehood issue back on the table. it's also raised very serious questions about anti-semitism in the united states and abroad. third and finally, i think of interests particularly to investors. the chances for a wider war in the region, that being defined as full-on combat between israe 1 in 4, becky. >> we are awaiting with the

launch of ballistic missiles last week. this is a step up of anything that had been done in recent memory. what is the israeli response to this and the negotiations with the americans for what they may or may not do? >> let me put myself in the israeli pentagon, if you will. the options developing will range from cyber, in other words, non kinetic. they will move from tar geted killing and move through proxies. all of that is kind of happening. then you are moving into striking iranian nautical targets or you could go after the energy grid of extreme concern to those looking at the global economy. you could go after the military industrial complex. i think that's probably where it lands going after the facilities that build and store and maintain, for example, these

ballistic missiles. at the far end of the escalatory spectrum, you could go after the iranian nuclear program. i think all of that is on the table. as a four-star working in both the pentagon and command of nato, that would be the type of menu i would have presented to the political leadership. >> so, after you presented that menu, when invariably some politician or somebody else said then walk us through the permutations of what would happen next if we go do those things, you would tell them what? >> i would say the lower you are on the spectrum, and i just gave it to you in ascending order of violence, the lower you are, the better the chances we avoid that 1 in 4 chance this goes high order. therefore, going after the nuclear weapons sites or going after the energy grid, that invites a much larger response.

if you go after the military industrial complex, for example, you might be able to see this thing deescalate a little bit. >> two things. one is there are some who say, look, this is a once in a generation opportunity to go after certain parts of their apparatus, including their nuclear facilities, perhaps at a time when they disarray and this opportunity may not exist again. how do you weigh that against the retribution and what it may or may not be and you think, okay, their retribution would be large, but israel, along with the allies and including the u.s., would be able to take much of that out, if you will. >> i think that is a defendable proposition. what you are implying is go big and go after the nuclear sites. here's the problem. iran is three times the size of texas. they have 25 of these sites all

around the country. many of them are buried 300 feet, three stories underground. intelligence is i ammperfect. it is the most defended sector. if you choose to go after those sites, it is a defendable proposition. you must be prepared for, perhaps, not being as smashingly successful as the last couple months and must be prepared for a significant response. i'll close with that. the iranians have 2,000 more ballistic missiles. they launched 200. it is a risk calculus. finally, the united states, at least with the current administration is not going to be participating in strikes on the nuclear sites. you might roll the dice for a new administration. >> admiral, is it fair to say that while i know you've written

the united states would step in and defend israel at all costs, is it fair to say that there is likely disagreement about what is best because they have these two nations not 100% alignment in terms of what they think might be best for the immediate future? israel is right there. israel is the one that will deal with any strike that comes first. we're a little further afoot. while we want to make sure we defend our ally, an important ally over the last year, there's going to be daisagreement in th room. >> that's absolutely correct. news flash, there will be an election in just over 30 days which will probably also engender different approaches depending on when we have team trump or team harris coming in. certainly from my perspective, as a military analyst and someone who was in charge at one point of u.s.-israeli

military-to-military activity when i was nato commander, i would say we need to stand very strongly with israel. that's in our best long-term interests. >> 29 days, admiral. >> who's counting? >> but who's counting? 29 days until the election. your guess as to the outcome -- i won't venture. it's not 30 anymore. it's 29. it's incredible. i have a little counter here. 18 hours and 12 minutes and 58 seconds. >> keep me posted, joe. >> tomorrow, it's going to be 28 days. i think. >> there's a movie called that. admiral, thank you for your time. we appreciate it. >> thank you, becky. >> is that the zombie? the zombie movie? and another one. i think there's a second. as we head to break, here is a look at the shares of boeing.

the company and the union are set to return to the negotiating bltoday to end the deal that halted the production of the 767 and 777 max jets. "swau "squawk box" is coming right back. but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice. every day, over a million multi-millionares trust schwab with more than two trillion dollars of their wealth.

a story in torque news raising some questions about insurance policies on tesla cyber trucks an owner posted a letter on x saying geico will no longer ensure his cyber truck with the letter reading in part, this vehicle doesn't mean our

guidelines. stevenson said he was going to switch insurers as a result of but the question is whether this was a policy shift by geico. i did some reporting on this last night and this is what i heard back. back in may, geico added the cyber truck to the list, geico said customers tend to blame geico for the delays not tesla and they get the blame when rental replacement vehicle isn't covered for as long as it takes to get the car repaired. but todd combs, the ceo of geico said it wasn't a holistic view and is looking at it. he said geico is going to reach out to the company this morning and the company will be removing the cyber truck from the list. but it gets into this story insurance rates have gone up

significantly. there have been delays for parts in all kinds of cars because of what happened with the supply chain during the pandemic. maybe harder to get parts for vehicles that are niche vehicles too. >> i thought it was a safety concern when you said it. >> no. >> the only thing unsafe is how fast that thing is. >> but how much of this maneuvering back and forth is geico is worried about tesla customers being loud? >> i don't know. i reached out to todd. todd said this happened without his knowledge. these decisions get made lower levels all the time. he said going forward he wants to know about any car getting put on the exotic list. >> assuming it was a gm car or ford car where the passion online and what it can do to your brand and the riot that emerges on social media is a different level. so if you are geico or any

company in this business you are having to be more sensitive, let's just say, than you might otherwise be. >> and you might also say it probably gets more attention when a cnbc anchor reaches out to a ceo of a company. >> that's true. >> but this is a situation they're changing it, reaching out to the customer today. coming up, a closer look at the wage gap and leadership gap when it comes to men and women in the workforce. and later, star board's investment in pfizer and the changes it could push for if it succeeds. "squawk box" is coming right back.

welcome back to "squawk

box." the september jobs report showing women and men are nearly on par in terms of unemployment rate but that not show the picture in terms of leadership and the wage gap. our next guest is author of "likable badass" and the co-writer of an opinion piece for "the new york times." joining us is alisyn fragale. why don't you actually -- let's go straight to the op-ed and explain it. what do you mean by a tight rope and being brilliant up there. >> yes, it's the balance between showing strength and warmth. assertiveness and warmth. that's something we all need to do to manage our status to be well represspected but it's har

find time and space to do that. women walking the tight rope of i know what i'm doing, i'm strong and i also care about you. >> we were talking about the unemployment rate earl earlier. wages still quite different between men and women, why do you think that is and what needs to happen, or not, about it. >> the census bureau showed for the first time in 20 years the wage gap got wider rather than narrowed. it's a combination of a couple of things one is women entering the workforce in entry level positions so they're not compensated as highly as senior position. and our challenge is getting women to advance to move up on par in parity with men. a report that came out showed an

increase in women in c suite positions, but a lot of the growth has come from adding positions to the c suite like human resources, data, legal, and it's not a sustainable path to growth. so if we look at the challenges why aren't we closing the wage gap, having the parity and representation. one of the variables i tried to shine a light on is the concept of status. if we aren't respected people don't want to promote us. one of the challenges women have they are granted less respect than men so i help people bring status into the narrative saying we need to be, as women, making sure we can walk the unfair tight rope in ways that get us the respect we deserve. >> what does that mean?

how do you do that, then? >> obviously a lot of things we don't control affect our status but what we see from the science is status is affected more by how you show up. so we can control it, even though we don't start at equal playing fields. every time we can take an action that can convince our audience because status is judged by the opinions of our audience. that we are very capable and care about people other than ourselves, we have done the most controllable thing we can do to convince our audience that we are deserving of respect. that can be with small things with our analysis of kamala harris we were looking at communication style, what emotions do you express, words do you use, those can convey i care about you but also more substantive things like giving advice. >> we were talking about dei, interestingly today is october 7th a year after the hamas

attacks which led to debate inside educational institutions and large corporations about dei, free speech and other things. i wonder if you think dei ultimately helps or undermines the arguments around respect? >> that's a really good question. >> sort of a complicated one, right. >> it is a complicated question. i think that in that respect everything is people know about us, it comes from one of two places. the things that we say about ourselves and put out into the world and the things that other people say about us often when we're not around. i think what dei efforts do in their best version is try to help other people understand the role they can play in building other people's status. i think to the extent it raises

awareness of the fact that i have influence over your status and everybody else's in how i present them to the world and i have control over that, that's a positive thing but i agree it's a complicated question. >> it's a longer conversation with many more questions. we hope to have them in the future. thanks. >> thanks for having me. the search has begun for cnbc change makers. if you want to apply or nominate somebody go to cnbc.com/change makers now through november 11th. just past 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc i'm asymptomandrew ross so along with becky quick and joe kernen. and starboard is taking a roughly $1 billion stake in pfizer and apparently seeking to

mount a turn around at the struggling company according to sources familiar with the matter saying they approached the former ceo and the former cfo, both expressed efforts to support starboard's turn around efforts and what can be to be in the immediate turn. meanwhile "joker" earning just $40 million at the box office. less than half of the first film. the movie had a budget of $200 million, it was expected to pull in $50 million on the debut. it's going to be hard to get to even. preparations under way as another hurricane is pushing to the florida coast, hurricane milton is its name, it's a category two, forecasters saying it likely will be a category three when it hits florida's

gulf coast. >> checking on the futures right now. let's get to dom chu looking at the premarket movers. what's putting the pressures on the averages? >> we have megacap tech names scheduled for downgrades this morning, that's where we start and that's the bigger drag here. some of the calls include shares of apple down after jeffrey's downgraded the stock. the firm also said near term expectations for the iphone 16 and even 17 are higher and pointed to weaker than expected demand for the 16 product. jeffries said it believes the artificial intelligence won't reach for two three years. amazon shares are down

around 2% right now, $182.87. wells fargo downgraded them to an equal weight and lowered the target price to 183 to 225 pointing to slowing growth expectations and competition in north america from walmart and others. and ending with a check on netflix, shares are lower by three quarters of a percent despite receiving an overrate from piper sandler. piper noted that consensus margins could be conservative in 2025 and '26 based on the incremental margins the last few quarters so also a drag down .75%. for more on those and other calls of the day, head to cnbc.com/pro to get the full story there. becky, back to you guys. it really is a big drag on the megacap tech names this morning. >> come, thank you.

coming up, what's ahead for interest rates after friday's jobs number. and later congressman chuck edwards joins us from north carolina with the latest on the cleanup for hurricane helene, this is "squawk box" on cnbc. discovering innovation today, helps drive growth tomorrow. as a leading global asset manager, pgim has established a track record of helping investors capitalize on growth opportunities. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow, today. ♪♪ from this can't miss moment... ...to this hello new grandpa moment... ...to that whatever this is moment... your moments are worth protecting against rsv. if you're 75 or older, or 60 or older with certain chronic conditions, you're at higher risk of being hospitalized from rsv.

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year just pushed above 4% as well. joining us is the governing partner of public credit strategies. thank you for coming in today. let's play this out. do you think it's less likely that the fed will cut rates as many times as the market has anticipated? >> thanks for having me. we think it's likely -- the risk is more they will cut less than people expect. i think a stable labor market and inflation under control is the mandate and that report suggested that, you know, probably soften the concerns around vulnerabilities for the u.s. economy. >> so in other words they don't need to cut as much based on their perspective of trying to maintain full employment. > . >> it's so data dependent we had a number that was different in august compared to september. chairman powell said in the next

couple of months we're likely to see the 25 basis points cuts. >> it wasn't just the stronger numbers of september it was the revised numbers for august, too. >> correct. >> continuing to watch those things. it did sound like chairman powell last week, maybe it was friday the week before he was talking was saying we are going to measure the data and see what happens from here. >> we heard we're not in a rush to cut. we are focussing on all the data. and so, our view is that it's likely to be baseline for the next two quarters. i will say the number the market estimated went from 8 cuts to 6 cuts based on that information that came out last week. >> is that a problem for the markets or good news because it means there's not as much as a drop off in the company as predicted. >> people are saying it's g

goldilocks economy. i think people are focused on what's the right terminal rate. everyone has been focused on that being 3%. and we have the view it's likely to be in that low 3% number and ten year treasury likely to stay around 4, 4.5%. >> what do you tell investors to do when it comes to the bond market when it comes to any of the facilities. >> you can take spread or rate risk. spread risk is hard to find in the high yield markets right now. spreads are super, super tight so there are different products that allow for risk and it's likely that duration risk is going to be interesting at some point because at a 4 to 4.5% ten year that's not too bad either. >> you seem pretty laid back about this, you don't seem too concerned. there are some people riding on every movement made. with you're saying we're in a

situation they're going to lower rates just not sure how much. >> i think we are of the view you'll have five to six cuts by the end of '25 we don't trade portfolios based on one month of information. we don't invest on that. so we tend to have a longer outlook. when we price risk we're looking over the course of a year not the course of a month. >> what do you do over the course of a year? if it's not about the spread risk that's worth taking, what do you do? >> i think we're triple c risk. again we operate in the land of credit so i'll start with that. that's the lens i come at it with. we haven't found that triple c risk versus higher quality risk makes sense. there is dispersion in the market but we haven't found that makes sense. when we look forward, 25 might be a year we've had more clarity than we've had since 2021.

>> clarity in terms of what? >> direction of rates, direction of monetary policy and election and therefore, sort of what the world looks like in terms of spend. so i think that's the first time we're going to see that in the last four years. >> you mean once we find out the election you'll have the questions answered. >> yes. many of them answered. >> does geopolitical chaos play into this? >> a lot. i think it circles back to two things one is yes, is the answer. but inflation, what drives inflation. inflation is driven by one, conflict. that's one. two, what people have been worried about is reacceleration of growth. so too many cuts too fast, lots of spend and then you get the reacceleration of inflation. so we're worried about middle east conflict, inflation as a whole and what drives it, and

we're definitely worried about federal deficit. >> the other issues that cause inflation are government spending whether it's needed or not, and the other is supply chain issues, that plays back to global conflicts too. >> yes. >> thankfully the ports have been put off for now, we'll see in january what happens. >> the economy is growing and growing economies tend to be goods for credit products so we're trying to stay in safer credit boxes and not go way far out on the risk curve. >> that makes sense. thank you for coming in today, appreciate it. coming up, antidefamation league ceo jonathan greenblatt is going to join us to discuss what happened in israel one year ago today and what's happening since. stay tuned "squawk box" returns after this.

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it is one year now since the tragic events on october 7th in israel. and since then the antidefamation league reports there have been over 10,000 anti-semitic incidents in the united states. a 200% increase since the year before. joining us now is jonathan

greenblatt ceo and director of the adl. good to have you on this morning. tough to think back, it doesn't seem very long ago. i guess one of the reasons is we still have hostages that the nightmare continues for a lot of people. you said something off camera about a day of -- what is it? >> a week of rage. >> a week of rage on college campuses and initially i was going to say. i was going to say, okay, 1,200 people slaughtered, 100 hostages it's not rage about that incident but then i see in the aftermath tens of thousands of people who have lost their lives, too. so i don't -- it's not clear to me exactly how we can look at this, although without the initial incident will there be 40 40,000 gazans dead without that

incident. >> witno way. but we have to remember the 1,200 people killed and the 100 hostages who didn't do anything other than wake up in the morning, go to a music festival, elderly people at a bus stop waiting to take a trick gunned down in goldcold blood. think about 9/11, 3,000 people on our shores. and on that day, 9/11 we remember them. it's true that a million plus people were killed in the insuing years in afghanistan and iraq. it's true that service men and women were killed and coalition forces too. but on 9/11 we honor the memories of those killed and that's it, no rationalization,

equivocation. so what i say to leaders today, corporate leaders, elected officials, college presidents on this day you remember those innocent 1,200 people. there will be time to talk about the innocence and every innocent life lost is a world destroyed but there will be time to talk about them. today you remember the jews who were killed. that's why we're here. >> what we saw over the last year, and there were times that it was tough to watch college campuses. we're not seeing that now but the undercurrents, has there been any change in the underlying amount of -- i mean, anti-semitism, are kids still scared to go to classes? still threatening these things happening? >> last year was like an avalanche of anti-semitism on the campuses. in the insuing months college

administrators got smart and many adapted their codes of conduct instituted new rules where they needed to. so we haven't yet seen the encampments again so that's the good news. the bad news is we haven't seen enforcement. interesting to see how things play out this week, you mentioned it, the pro-hamas groups on campus are the same groups that honored the head of hamas who was killed. the same groups bring out hamas and hezbollah flags, joe. we'll see what they do this week. and if they violate the rules, i hope the college presidents will enforce consequences. >> can i ask about dei. i look at october 7th we were having a conversation about dei in the last segment. >> i saw that. >> there had been a raging debate about dei prior to october 7th but in the aftermath of october 7th, things i think shifted and there was an even

greater backlash. there was ron desantis and disney targeted and bud light and the like. but after october 7th i think there was a view, i'm curious what you think about this, among business leaders many of whom were jewish who were big supporters of dei programs and minorities. and there was a view, brett stevens reported this, there wasn't reciprocity in the same way. >> right. >> and that that led to a rethinking of some of these programs in a way i don't think we talk about on tv or that's talked about in public often. >> it's a good point. you can't really say you're pushing inclusion if you don't actually include everybody. and what these corporate ceos found is something that we knew at adl, the programs didn't address anti-semitism they put

people oftentimes in these oppression olympics and they're team oppressor or team oppressed and for reasons that are inexplicable to me the jews are on the oppressed. the fact that jews has a history of trauma that lasts thousands of years not included. that's a problem. i think many companies are reconsidering it and adopting positions of institutional neutrality because they feel they went too far out over their skis. >> does institutional neutrality work? >> it's a good question. diversity matters i believe in diversity education but it has to be done right. it's good, but moral clarity is better. and moral clarity means when we see over 1,200 people slaughtered, muslims,

christians, buddhists. then you say this is wrong know kwif indication. >> that's my point. institutional neutrality is what they're using. >> i don't think it's enough. it's an insufficient condition i think moral clarity is better. if our college presidents had demonstrated that before congress, their students i don't think we w'd be in this mess. >> the college presidents are presiding over an entire infrastructure that breeds over this. we saw the protests mostly on college campuses, in that environment. are we ever going to be able to fix our college campuses? >> we have to. >> how? >> it's not just the college presidents it's every tenured left wing academic in the last 30 years. exclusively left wing academic,

almost. >> we need system change on the campus. it didn't happen overnight on the front end we won't fix it overnight on the back end. but as i think about it it's faculty members, the student bodies what can we do? at adl we have undertaken more lawsuits in the last year than the prior 100 plus years. many against universities and k through 12 school districts. we used to play only an inside game talking quietly now driving an outside game with our campus report card what i say for us at adl and the groups in the wake of 10/7 it's a wakeup call you have to innovate, take risks if we're going to fix this once and for all. >> you can fire every current college president and not one thing will change based on what's underneath, what's festering on college campuses.

>> this is a culture issue. firing liz at penn, i think she resigned technically, that didn't change the issues. it requires a top to bottom holistic approach and we're waiting for that to play out at college campuses across the country. >> ask you about -- we were talking about the middle east every day. i don't know if you have opinions about what israel does from here on out about the response that we're seeing from -- >> i will say this. i will say this, and i've seen it on some other shows this morning. israel i'm not a military strategist. but israel needed to respond like america did after pearl harbor after america attacked japan after pearl harbor nobody said to president roosevelt what's your day after plan for japan. that was not the question at hand. after germans were incinerating

jews nobody said churchill what's the plan the day after? this is a moment the israels are facing sheer evil perpetrated by iran coming from gaza, lebanon. the israelis have to respond. i have seen a lot of hand wringing this morning what's the plan, whether or not you like benjamin netanyahu, israel needs to deal with existential threats. let them do what they need to do. i think everybody being an armchair quarterback doesn't help the cause. >> you have a country like iran that the stated objective is obliterate the state of israel. >> again they put militias surrounding the country. what would we do if ottawa said our stated policy is to destroy the united states. >> a nuclear bomb. >> we would do a lot of things

and no one would say what's the day after plan, who's the next prime minister after trudeau. we need to see more of that. >> appreciate that. >> vg good to see you this morning. when we come back, boeing restarting talks with the union to reach a deal. we'll talk about what's next for the strike. that's straight ahead. take a look at this morning's winners and losers in the s&p 500 as we head to break. "squawk box" will be right back. whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

welcome back to "squawk box." interesting story over the weekend, ben harowitz and his wife lisa planning to donate to kamala harris' campaign. remember in july they stunned silicone valley by endorsing and donating to former president trump they created a video podcast about it saying the best candidate for technology startups was trump but now axios reporting that horowitz announced his change of heart to

employees on friday saying he notes that kamala harris has not stated what her technology policies will be he said that he will make donations to harris but the firm's position has not changed. a lot of folks raising their eyebrows on that shift. >> which they did on the initial shift. goldman sachs out raising the price target for the s&p 500 from 5600 to 6000. goldman also upgrading china equities to overweight seeing an upside of 15 to 20% following an aggressive stimulus package in that country. markets are still closed in

china, they reopen tomorrow. hang seng is up 26% since china began announcing the stimulus measures late last month. coming up what is ahead for boeing as the company resumes talks with union workers today. plus tiktok's latest ad strategy could be a blow to google. more on that later. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back, everybody. check out the futures this morning we've been under pressure all morning long. s&p 500 futures down by about 35, the nasdaq indicated off close to 140. there have been weakness in the megacap tech names that's why you see weakness across the major averages this comes four weeks in a row with gains. i want to talk about the big corporate stories including starboard has taken roughly $1 billion in pfizer seeking to mount a turn around in the company. joining us is a professor at dartmouth college's tuck school of business. i want to get your reaction to the news that starboard is involved in this and may be pushing for change.

this is a different kind of activist attempt if you will oftentimes they're looking for some kind of financial engineering approach so you ask spin something off, have a buy back, a dividend. in this case, especially in the drug space, it seems like you need to invest money. >> yeah, i think that's true. i think the problem here is that pfizer really hasn't come around since making so much money onno v -- on covid and they're banking on the fact that the drug industry is the most expensive industry in the world and somebody could find a way to make the company more profitable than it is. that's not a bad bet. i think they're working with former ceos who have some inside track on this that might make it better for them. >> one of the pieces of the report was ian reed, former ceo

of the company and the former cfo could be involved as well. but the question i would ask is, what kind of turn around and what kind of timeline could investors expect in regard to a real shift in profits given that this is a company that, as we said, has struggled on finding the right weight loss drug that works. made big investments in cancer space but some of the bets are not going to pay off, if they do at all, for many years. >> it's going to be a long play for sure. that's the problem, if you decide to get into this, you're looking at a very long haul before anything is going to happen and that seems to be major problems for those trying to invest in pfizer at this point. sure. >> does this make sense as an activist target, if you will? >> doesn't make any sense to me at all. i was surprised to see the news this morning. i think what we need to look for is maybe they know something we

don't know. i'm not sure what that would be. this isn't a company that has made a lot of money in the past so making a bet on the long term could be what they're looking for that's not a bad bet. >> how do you feel about br bringing back, for example, a former ceo. i don't know if that's the plan, if they'll push for that, or it's just having someone like ian reed advising them on the side. whether it's pushing for board seats putting someone like ian reed back into that room, and what that would do. we had the spring board like effect that we had ceos come back and back and back and back. is that the right answer? >> i don't think so. i don't think that's going to make a difference here. it's not like borla has done a bad job. the company isn't in ridiculously bad shape. i'm stunned what's going on here and not sure what their plan is, probably the same is true for

you. >> to the point that becky made in the 6:00 hour about albert bourla he was heralded in the covid crisis for moving mountains that seemed unmovable to get the vaccines created, made and distributed. the question is can he do the same for the rest of the business, if you will? >> i don't think there's much difference between him and the previous ceo and trying to make this happen. i guess i would give him a little bit more rope before you hang him. i'm surprised this happened so quickly. again is there something we don't know that's going on behind the scenes that these guys have more information about, i'm not sure. >> paul great to get your perspective, especially when news is breaking like this. thanks for joining us this morning. thank you. coming up, a look at the response that hurricane helene's destruction. we have congressman chuck edwards joining us next 37 we'll

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the wall street journal reporting that shein's founder and ceo is headed to the united states this week. sky zhou is meeting with investors today. it's the first time to meet with xu who rarely makes public appearances. when we come back, congressman chuck edwards is going to join us for updates on the hurricane helene efforts. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

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welcome back, everybody. hurricane helene has left a path of destruction across the south. over 200 people are dead from the storm and efforts are under way to repair roads, bridges and restore power for tens of thousands of people. north carolina was particularly hard hit it experienced the worst flooding in a century there. our next guest is on the front line of the relief efforts we want to welcome chuck edwards

from the western part of the state, including parts of ashville that were hit so hard. thank you for joining us this morning, congressman. we know you are on the front lines, this is a horrible tragedy. tell us where things stand right now. >> we got off to a slow start with getting assistance in here from state agencies. they are here now, in full force. we've seen widespread damage, beyond anything these mountains have ever seen. not only flooding but trees down, homes destroyed, roads, bridges washed out. major arteries in and out of north carolina cut off. folks in neighborhoods that we still can't reach. widespread power outages. i believe we still have well north of 100,000 energy customers that do not have power. sporadic communication. it's really a desperate situation here in the mountains

right now. >> we mentioned this is the worst flooding in over a century in that area. why do you think it's taking so long and why it's been so hard to get the rescue efforts under control there? >> i can't explain why it's taken so long. those are definitely questions that i'll be asking. what's -- we're far enough into this that i feel comfortable in pulling resources aside to begin to ask those questions. it was more than three days before we ever saw the first folks in here from fema, before we saw the first sign of any significant resources, but we're well under way now. i'll tell you what really encourages me. it's the way that the mountain people here are pulling together. we see search -- churching, civic organizations, neighbors, so many people pulling together helping one another in a way that we've never had to do

before. >> congressman, you're there on the ground. i'm watching from afar, and i watch -- look for images anywhere i can stories anywhere i can a lot on social media and some is incredibly concerning saying that volunteers are being turned away. that fema is taking -- still this morning looking at these. fema is taking and confiscating things brought in and i looked to the news "observer" in raleigh, local paper. they put out something say emergency officials responding to hurricane helene false rumors on social media are impeding efforts to help tens of to yous in need. "false information shared on social media channels including a.i. generated content and images, nefarious actors and with ill-intent may be taking advantage of the situation by spreading false information." you're on the ground. what's really happening?

>> those rumors are totally unsubstantiated and it's so unfortunate that at a time like this where we need to be pulling together and being truthful and working on real solutions, we've got some nefarious folks out there that are trying to make a name for themselves or see what they can stir up on social media. i'm not going to come to fema's defense. they've done some things that they should have done differently. no question about that. we'll deal with those issues, but the response that i have gotten has been very positive, and where there have been kinks, where i've stepped in, applied a little pressure i've seen response. >> i know that asked cell towers bront in instantly. once asked they were brought in. what else do you need right now? >> right now we need, still roads cleared, power restored. we've still got pockets that we

cannot communicate with. so we need more and better cell service. those are the real issues right now. we're beginning to see quite a bit of food and water and cleaning supplies and those types of things show up in, in largt so mane volunteers, more resources. someone wants to send those. this is going to take a little while to be able to reach the power stations that are not working, and the folks that we can't get to. i'd be remiss -- >> sorry. go ahead you sir. >> i'd be remiss if i didn't mention there's still a lot of missing people. crews combing through rivers and cars submerged and piled of debelieve, still finding hits by cadaver dogs.

we're still in a recovery mode in regards to those that are missing. >> very much so. there are people who would like to help. i know it's a concern about having too many people coming in when the roads that are open, those major arteries, are kind of reserved for the emergency workers and the emergency crews to get some of these things through. is there somewhere that you would direct people? i know the governor had mentioned the north carolina disaster relief fund. is there a place if people want to help, something they can do rather than show up in-person if you're worried about looting, making sure emergency workers can get through? >> yes. certainly. i appreciate you asking that question. if anyone goes to my website, my official website, edwards.house.gov/help. wnc there's a list where folks

can contribute, volunteer time or send resources. >> there had been questioning whether house speaker mike johnson would bring congress back to increase the amount of funding that goes through to emergency. do you know anything about whether that's going to happen at this point? >> i don't think that coming back in for a special session right now is necessary. we had the foresight before we adjourned for our october work period to make sure the government was funded, but also added $20 billion for disaster recovery. so we've got funds to get us into the initial phases of this. there's no question once we come back into session in mid-november we're going to have to take up the issue of a supplemental and look at what needs to be done. not only here in western north carolina but around the country with some of the storms we're experiencing right now. >> but no question. there is emergency funding right now and, again, people can help by going to your web page to

look for the appropriate places to funnel any help they can give? >> yes. most certainly. thank you. >> congressman, thank you very much for your time. good luck. we are watching. >> thanks for your interest. >> thank you, sir. >> all right. good morning. it is 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. among our top stories activist investor starboard taken a roughly $1 billion stake in pharma giant pfizer and looking to mount a turnaround for the company. that according to people familiar with the matter the plans are unclear but the investors approached pfizer former ceo and cfo as part of its efforts. chevron is selling oil efforts to canadian national resources for $6.5 billion in cash. the assets contributed about 84,000 barrels of oiler

equivalent per day to chevron's production last year. part of the effort to divest assets by 2028. and hurricane milton upgraded a short time ago to a category 3 storm as it churns towards cities in the southeastern united states, still working to clean up from helene's damage. hurricane watches for parts of florida are in effect. the most likely path of the storm at this point suggests it could make landfall on wednesday near tampa bay, and before moving across florida and into the atlantic ocean. a lot of people watching this closely. the geography of tampa bay, what a significant storm surge there would mean. never taken a direct hit from a hurricane before. obviously coming so quickly after helene and the damage that was left, lots and lots of concerns. people asked to evacuate now. and futures are down this morning, and treasuries a 4% ten year. we did earlier.

a quick look. mike santoli at cnbc headquarters. mike, what if rates, or even the two year is up, what if rates keep going up? what if they went up significantly. people point out the options are still big. you need to attract people to fund a lot of the needs of the government, and they could -- you could theoretically see rates continue to rise, even if the fed continues to cut? >> you could absolutely. >> is that bad? >> get that resteepening mood. i don't know about bad. from these levels doesn't seem it's necessarily threatening, although it's been a quick round trip. first look at the s&p 500, because in general markets are absorbing a much better than expected jobs report friday and what it means for the fed for rates, and for earnings. essentially called off the growth scare. s&p coming from a position of strength. 21 by 21 market. up 21% year to date and trading above 21 times forward earnings.

flattened in the last while. haven't gotten a lot of upside about a percent and a half above mid-july highs. also around 21.8 times earnings. in other words, holding valuations because earnings are going up from six months ago, forward 12 month estimate up 7%. able to hold with fed cutting and economic numbers come income better than expected, even if seasonal in valuation and geopolitical factors are keeping risk appetites at bay to a degree. a look at the two-year note yield, just talking about. a violent u-turn made in yields. growth scale started in july, the jobs report, in early august we had b two months, oh, no, maybe the economy is faltering and the fed needs to do more. pricing out a half percentage point total of potential fed easing going through the cycle here. versus what we looked at on thursday. clearly a moving target. shows what levelling we're coming off of in the 2s, 10s

about the same level. shows you around 430 on the ten year seems it gets real figuring if stocks need to be concerned. also looking stretched in the short term. wouldn't be surprised to see it settle back before too long. look at volatility. i mention in a general sense of caution, reserve and unease we have here. up in the low 20s even with the s&p basically at a record high and actually calm action in the index last week sews you people are getting hedged. a lot about october and making sure they keep buffered against volatility through the election. see if there's a release from there. >> thank you. continuing this markets conversation with a guest we haven't seen in a while. a former partner and chief u.s. strategist at goldman sachs now a professor at columbia business school. thank you for coming in today. >> good morning. >> we look to you for big calls on a lot of different issues and

the way mike jut set things up is a pretty great way for starting. we're looking at new highs. you could say valuations are stretched. then again not a lot of volatility leading into this. what do you see when you look at the landscape? >> an interesting time, because we've had market strategists's recently lift targets again not just in the united states also in china. in some ways looking at momentum. i always, you know, like to look at midterm long-term issues. i think we're now in a trading range, my perspective. a few reasons. i look at fundamentals, not bad. i think the u.s. economy is in very good shape. corporate profits this year are in good shape, but a lot of that good news is already baked into the market. i also take a look at the consensus forecasts used for s&p earnings for next year. many of them are expecting additional earnings growth of

10% to 12% from the strategists. even more from analysts. that represents an acceleration from this year, even though the likelihood is u.s. gdp will be growing more slowly next year than this year. we're seeing roughly gdp growth, real gdp growth now about 3%. it will probably ease off a little to about 2.5%. certainly not a recession. but it's kind of hard to argue that profits are going to accelerate dramatically and then, of course, there's the valuation question. valuation is already pricing in some very good news, and that's the overall market and, of course, some sectors that have issues. my real concern, however, has to do with some of the geopolitical things we look at. and i start with the u.s. election. historically if you go back many cycles you see that the u.s. stock market does pretty well after a major election.

there's a sigh of relief and also most people feel that their candidate has won. this year i'm not convinced it's going to be a sigh of relief rally. in fact, if anything, i'm quite concerned about what happens if there is agitation of any sort following the election, because of uncertainty about results and so on. so that -- >> meaning because it's so close? questions, what raised about tampering? >> exactly. >> half the country's going to feel robbed or ripped off? >> and candidates out there not just at national but state and local level already talking about tampering, even though there's no evidence of it. that's something that concerns me. we also, of course, need to have thoughtful conversations about policy going forward. either way, we're going to be having a new president with different priorities, and i do very much worry that some of the

policy changes that we could be looking at, some of the ones discussed by some of the candidates look fine to me. others are quite worrisome. >> which concern you? >> you've been running a chyron this morning talking about the forecast, estimate done by an outside group saying that the trump plans would add 7.5 trillion dollars to the budget deficit. that's a pretty significant number. i haven't done the numbers myself. i think it's very hard to do so until you actually see legislation and so on. one of the things i'm quite concerned about has to do with tariffs. tariffs are not paid from the country of origin. they're paid ultimately by u.s. consumers, and one other thing that us policy wonks are focused on to me is very, very troubling in terms of ultimate economic activity, and that has to do with the so-called schedule f

plans from the trump administration. this is something that was put in place at the end of the first trump administration. something that's discussed in project 2025. i know that president trump has disavowed project 2025, but there's so many of his people behind it i think we have to look at it seriously. what does it do? schedule f basically says, we have 10,000 political appointees in the federal government. what they will do is reclassify an additional 40,000 jobs to become political appointees and who are filling those 40,000 jobs now? basically the subject matter experts. the people who make things run. the congress will do some legislation, but somebody in an agency has to decide how that will be implemented, number one. and number two, you want people who are scientists, people who are experts in whatever category it is basically making those

decisions, not an additional, in my view, 40,000 political appointees. >> valid concerns to be thinking around these things. people also look at the harris campaign and say if you start taxing unrealized gains what will that mean in terms of market potential sales down the road? how do you figure that out? all of these things are, again, talked about on the campaign trails. it's hard to go in and dig into details on these things but i have people concerned the market might sell off? >> that would be a concern, and you said it in just the right way. how do you figure this out? i have never figured out how you can actually compute what those untaxed returns would be. those unrealized gains. so this seems to me to be one of those proposals that just doesn't really -- >> corporate rates. you think 28's okay? >> the corporate tax rate, joe, as you well know, and has been discussed here many times, has

been that the statutory rate is not the effective tax rate. the current effective tax rate is probably around 18%. >> low enough, in your view? >> one of the lowest in the developed economies, and we have seen fabulous corporate profits, which have been benefiting from this low tax rate. will the corporate tax rate go up substantially under a harris administration? i don't know. i'm not connected to -- >> capital gains. >> the capital gains tax rate is something that is also obviously being discussed, but the thing that actually collects more money has to do with growth, which historically has been the way the u.s. economy has grown and has the federal -- >> at the -- talk regulations. >> right. >> how about the -- >> let me finish the point. federal revenues typically have grown best in the united states when the economy has grown, and

having read the documents from both campaigns, what the harris campaign includes is, on many different proposals, to grow the economy. it's not just housing but it's also credits to manufacturing and a variety of other things that would get the economy moving in a stronger way. >> so government assistance for the private sector you think is more important than less regulation? >> the regulation that we have in place is not perfect. we all understand that. however, i think that when you look at other economies where regulation has receded, there are problems. so, for example, i believe that we do need regulation focusing in on making sure that the free market, i'm a capitalist. i believe in free markets, but any economic historian will tell you that an unbridled free market creates problems, and i

think that some degree of regulation is appropriate. give you just one example. we had some breakdowns in regulation, which helped trigger the global financial crisis, and we have had some adjustments to that since then, and we have largely avoided big problems. now, we know that silicon bank and so on and many people will point to that and say, the regulators weren't doing their job. so to have a situation where regulation just -- basically eases even more in some industries is problematic and i think you need to look at it industry by industry to make a determination. >> it's not a huge leap for a lot of people, co-author of the even bigger green new deal along with one of the most liberal voting records in the senate, isn't immediately thought to be pro-business more than what we saw in the first trump presidency. >> well, you know -- >> just not a given that

someone's going to just nod while you're saying that. for me. >> no. i hear you, and i think we also have to recognize that the last time vice president harris was in a national campaign by herself she was in the primary, and what we know in any primary situation, whether the democrats or the republicans, there will be people who will lean over in one direction to peel to th-- appeal to their base. vice president and looking how the biden administration governed the economy, it's been pretty good'sthe three legislative accomplishments address major long-term deficits, in the united states and investment. we weren't investing enough 40 years in public infrastructure. one of the major pieces of legislation addressed that. the "c.h.i.p.s." act and the ira

legislation addresses investment in green energy, but it also addresses how do you enhance all energy and how do you mitigate climate change. by the way, the other thing the i.r.a. addresses keeping pharmaceutical prices low as possible. >> abby, before we let you go, with all the questions and big issues why is the vix not more active, not more volatility and what would you tell people to do ahead of the election? invest or not? >> the vix has done what it's done because of the underlying of the economy solid. growing 3% creating jobs. inflation down from about 9% to roughly 2%. >> if all of this is resting on this election, that convinced that of, what would you tell people to do ahead of it? buy or not? >> i don't think there's been a change in focus yet. right now investors are looking very much at the economic data coming out right now, the corporate profit data likely to

be recoported the next weeks an look goods. this economy is actually very, very solid. we have a friendly fed now and i think investors are just looking at that and when they turn their attention to some of their other issues i do expect the volatility to increase, and i think that that's when you see that this is more of a trading range. do i hope that equity prices ultimately move higher? of course i do. but i think we need to be realistic about what the next several months might bring. >> abby, thank you for coming in. abby joseph cohen. coming up, author and former bush administration foreign policy advisor dan senor is ckba to help take stock of the situation in the middle east exactly one year after the attack on israel. stay tuned. expand their to, we must expand as well.

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welcome back to "squawk box." both hamas and hezbollah targeting israel on the anniversary of hamas's october 7th massacre. hamas saying it fired missiles at tell veev hitting the third largest city in hiaifa and hits

suburbs where hamas that its headquarters. all of this ahead of the anniversary where 1,200 people were killed and took hostages and pounded in the year since killing more than 40,000 people and israel startinged hezbollah in lebanon recently and, of course, killed that group's lewder. commemorations by jewish communities around the world due to take place today as well as pro-palestinian demonstrations including here in new york. for more, former foreign policy advisor to the bush administration and co-author and host of the podcast "call me back." before we get into any geopolitical questions, taking stock of this moment since you have been literally in israel, on the phone, talking and thinking about this from the moment it happened. >> so i cannot believe we're a year later, if you think where the world was, say, december 7,

1942. a year after pearl harbor or where the world was on september 11, 2002, a year can after 9/11. it's not the conversation that we are having here in the united states. in the united states today, and many parts of the world, as you talked about with jonathan greenblatt earlier today jews are scared. experienced over the last year, soe sort of the end of the american jewish golden age. it's not just that israel was under genocidal threat, equivalent of three 9/11s and 44,000 americans, equivalent, slaughtered in one day. the worst day for gentjews since holocaust. not at shattering as it was, the past year an incredible wake-up call. i have a son who visited the ga gaza envelope with our family

last april over passover, and he compared it to visiting auschwitz with my mother, who's a holocaust survivor, 86 years old, the previous summer. he says visits was harder han auschwitz, awful as it were. it's not taking anything away from the holocaust but he was saying to us that he just didn't expect in his lifetime. you study what happened in the holocaust. another era. somehow thought the world was enlightens, modernized more sis civilized and attempts to just wipe out the jewish people again, a lot of incidents especially young jews. we are thinking about october 7, we are, but also what we learned about jewish life outside of israel since october 7th.

>> that's the question. changed ireroquaireroquably? >> october 8th, a statement holding israel entirely responsible. university after university after university saw this action's protests in this current not just calling for a cease-fire but waving flags of hamas now expressing solidarity with hezbollah. i think many jews here feel, and i hear this all the time, and you see it in the survey data. they look around at their community organizations. they look around at the workplace, in corporate settings, in various professional settings and they say, it's not just what happened on october 7th was horrendous but a tremendous lack of empathy among people i work with, people involved with causes. thought we shared the same values and suddenly questioning whether they have my back. i think that is not fixable

quickly. >> right. a question. protests today and protests all week, and some of those protests will relate not to what happened on october 7th or october 8th but what's happened in the time period since and we talked about 2,000 other people dieing in gaza and has, and people's views of bibi netanyahu and views of how israel has tried to defend itself. >> yeah. >> and what that does to the psychological impact. >> i just think it's -- no country should escape fair criticism including the israeli government. i've been critical of things the israeli government since october 7th and long before october 7th, but when you look at what israel's going through, which is now facing a seven-front war by all of these entities and organizations most with no territorial dispute. not like hezbollah saying cut a deal with israel we'll all be good. or iran saying reach a diplomatic accommodation with israel and we can both exist in

the middle east. they're clear they're implementing an annihilation bo. a seven-front war, israel under attack in every direction. saw what happens on october 7th. now know hezbollah wanted to do the same from the north. what israel right now is doing restoring its deterrence capability in the the regent and removing capabilities of its enemies. no other country would be asked to do anything different, and israel should not be held to a different standard. doesn't mean that they don't make mistakes just doing what any other country would do. >> and to obliterate and a week to two weeks away if they decide to go forward with it how can israel not do the nuclear sites now? >> i think israel wants to deal with the nuclear threat. >> don't you have to veeventual?

>> yes. they have the capability to do real damage to iran's nuclear program, slow it down one to two weeks away slow it down one to two months or years, but not capability to the actually eliminate it. one country does working alongside israel and suni allies united states government. i watched the president's interview on "60 minutes" asked about israel's behavior whether or not the u.s. lost its ability to influence prime minister netanyahu. that's the wrong question. what's the u.s. interest? u.s. has an interest preventing iran from raging, wreaking havoc in the red sea and sabotaging international shipping. the u.s. has an interest in iran not getting a nuclear bam.

>> dbomb. >> i hear everything you're saying and absolutely defend israel at all costs, a general was on earlier but not sure he advises going after nuclear bombs. many buried three stories below the ground and if you can't take it out all you're doing setting it up 2,000-plus other antiballistic missiles targeted immediately at israel. you're right that israel has every right to defend itself. it's a different thing to ask the united states to come along every step of the way. >> i think the question is, at this point, for israelis and for the u.s., it's, what is the practical reality of iran having a nuclear weapon? that is the question. iran is becoming the hedgeamonic power in the region. we see what it looks like, mount up sunis, disrupt international

shipping, kill americans. seen what happens, what they can do to israel. >> your point is, there is no going back? >> and the question is at this point, look, at this point israel made clear it is not going to sit there and be curled up in a ball on the floor waiting for iran to continue to light up these proxies against israel. so israel is pushing back. if ever there was a time iran was going to race to a nuclear bomb it would be now. >> but the question is if there is 2,000 missiles that rain down on tel aviv, whether israel, with the u.s., can sustain that? i mean, part of the calculus. >> obviously. i don't speak for the israeli government or for the u.s. government. i can't tell you that these are -- risk management decisions they have to make. my sense talking to israeli officials, though, is they feel they've crossed a threshold here where they cannot -- the idea they can learn to live with a

nuclear iran is absurd and many officials in the u.s. government feel the same way. >> and think they can take it out? can do it? >> the u.s. can certainly. the question, will it work with israel to do it. >> a lot of business and policy leaders who watch the broad cast and on a day like today could use your thoughts on how to talk about this. because i do think, talking about dei programs, backlash and all the things that happened both at educational institutions and also inside big companies, slack messages and the like? >> i would say to business leaders and anyone in a professional workplace, this is not the day to talk about politics. it's not a day to talk with your employees or colleagues about geopolitics, jewish employees or colleagues. check in, see how they're doing. i guarantee you every single one of those knows someone who was killed on october 7th or knows someone being, a family member, knows families who have loved ones in the dungeons of gaza or

know people who know people who know people. everyone is a couple steps removed. ask how they're doing, show empathy. not a day to finger wave or second guess. >> every step along the way i think netanyahu has done more than people thought. and more than what the united states probably wished he had done. every step of the way. i think it's going to be this way this time, too, and if it is, when do you think -- do you think it will, he will go after the nuclear sites, and if so, when? a week? two weeks? >> so first question, i think israel will either hit some of iran's nuclear sites or its oil infrastructure. one of those two are going to get hit, or both. i think it is going to be soon. and headed to washington, d.c. to meet with defense secretary au austin. defense minister of israel. it's conceivable israel wouldn't hit while the defense minister

is here but i don't know for certain. i think weeks. not months away. some in the security establishment fine with letting iran sitting there being nervous, questioning when is israel going to strike. i don't think they think time is a disadvantage. >> thank you for coming in on this important day. coming up, more on the u.s. economy as investors get ready for inflation data this week, and automation was a big sticking point in the east coast port strike. that issue was punted to next year's deadline after a break, hearing how automation is already affecting operations at west coast ports. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

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by now, union workers and east coast port operators have an interim deal on wages for the new contract ending a recent three-day strike, but both sides now looking ahead to the january

15th deadline for a master contract, and automation will be a key challenge. kate rogers joins us with more from the port of los angeles. where automation already is in use and workers negotiated a new contract just last year. good morning, kate. >> hey, joe, good morning. automation, as you said, really front and center over the course of the next few months for dock workers on the east coast as those negotiations continue. last friday the ila wants more clear language related to automation at the ports writing in part "the ila negotiated restrictions on automation and semiautomation, they want to tighten language no automation means no automation." as you said at the port of last where we are live today automation is in use and this port is among the most automated in the country, but only about 3 to 5% of global parts are fully automated and foreign ones automate more quickly d ly due

higher volumes and a balancing act for boosting workers and retaining jobs. >> when it comes to jobs here today and those seen into the future. there's a lot of this that has to be handled with tough conversations but getting around this corner and over these hurdles is going to be paramount for the american economy. >> now, california port executives we spoke to are quick to point out that automation isn't just a silver bullet. takes year to implement, massive capex and recoup. one thing for sure. west coast ports are extremely busy. port of l.a. 17% in august ahead of 2023 pace moven 1 million more containers than last year just eight months into the year. becky, over to you. >> all right, kate, thank you. we do have questions about this. i guess some people wonder how

do we have a sense of the use of automation what it's done to jobs on the west coast. not to mention our ports are not nearly as set up as things have been in the past, for automation in other areas, too. >> yeah. ab absolutely. west coast workers negotiating add new deal last year. the terms of the automation clause in the contract not publicly available. hard to say how specific they were in terms what is in use and what isn't. two different studies, of course, showed two different things. one commissioned by the parties representing the workers showing an annual loss of 500 jobs in 2020 and 2021 when automation introduced. a separate study kmis commissioned by the ports 2020 and 2021 paid hours for union workers went up by over 10% as automation started to be implemented here. of course, hard to tell whether or not it eliminated jobs. advocates for automation say

just changes the jobs. won't entirely go away safer and still people are behind the technology. see how that shakes out on the east coast. >> kate, thank you. on the waterfront this morning. when we come back, tiktok and other companies are threatening google's dominance in the lucrative search advertising business. what that could mean for the tech giant. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset. so how do you invest in gold? sandstorm gold royalties is a publicly traded company offering a diversified portfolio of mining royalties in one simple investment. learn more about a brighter way to invest in gold at sandstormgold.com.

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google facing more competition in its bread and butter search advertising business. who? well, like tiktok, amazon and now potentially a.i. companies. a story detailed in the "wall street journal" this past weekend. joining us to talk about it, rich greenfield from lightshed partners. google, i don't know, demise of google and search and advertising has been greatly exaggerated over and over again. i'm not shedding any tears yet, rich. >> joe, i mean, exactly right. end of the day, there has been a fundamental shift in how consumers use the internet. especially younger consumers for years now. amazon eating into, you know,

how you search. like, people going directly to amazon to search for a product. people going, you know, directly to pinterest to find inspiration for something. i mean, we've seen major shifts in how people search, and google obviously, joe, as you pointed out, done incredibly well over the last five-plus years, even with this change in behavior. think about the rise of tiktok. so many people. go out for a night in new york or l.a., people searching on tiktok what to do. they're not new and really separate from the a.i. discussion as we move to an a.i. world and search.gpt what search looks like or what ultimately search looks like whether we even type -- joe, it might be all voice driven. such an evolution of search behavior and, therefore, search advertising. i think that unknown is hard for

people to deal with. on the flip side, look how google fully integrated all of its products. it's hard not to believe google's a winner. it's a matter do they lose some share as this transition occurs. >> i've done it a few times. sometimes takes a little longer just going to the building blocks you get from google, and you can go to a, an a.i. or whatever -- you know, you prefer. it will put it together maybe a little more quickly or coherently, but doesn't google still, isn't -- don't they get something from perplexity? searching google what they generate to give to me? >> big questions how all of these platforms work together and who turns off the ability to scrape answers and how compensation works, and even in a world where you do get those answers, i mean, you saw last week. google's now putting ads, doing

a.i. summaries. you ask, how to get a stain out of a carpet. google is giving you answers. literally within that a.i. generated synopsis top of the page. not just links out to third-party sites the way they always did, also actual ads for products. now, what will the click-through rates be on that? what will -- how will it change where you end up on the internet and what does that mean for winners and losers? i think that whole -- there's a whole category, joe, of search engine optization. s.e.o., that would business feels it's going to change over the next decade, because you have to tune it to what an a.i. world looks like. you have up on the screen whether it's openai or anthropic. all the platforms are vying for, where do you go when you need to, you know, to find something, learn something? where do you go first? i think the real challenge is, you know, we're so conditioned

to going into google. not to mention, you have an android phone it's built on google. it has android and google, chrome, built in. that is a huge advantage versus all the other platforms. the question is, will searching on these other platforms be so much better to get you not to use google? that's the real multi-trillion dollar question. nobody can answer that today. obviously sam altman and others are trying. >> did you watch last week where we asked a.i. how it would monetize itself? it actually was pretty smart about how to do it, and the subject is not supposed to be able to figure out the object or vice versa, whatever it is. some principle in physics where you can't analyze your -- your brain -- we may never understand the brain because we're using a brain to analyze the brain? >> how long before you don't need either of us? having a computer talking back and forth to itself you don't

need joe and rich. >> i'm back to thinking true consciousness might be further off than we think. are all of these a.i. products going to be neurotic like all of us? ever really be like us? i can't imagine. i hope not. >> no. but certainly getting smarter. the pace of evolution -- pace of evolution is incredible. >> i know. he remember things but do they ever put -- >> walk around with -- you saw zuckerberg. >> can they be insightful? >> played with a new chatgpt it is be insightful because it's thinking, before it provides the answer. a different approach. instead of spitting out an answer it sits and effectively running through moment pal answers before running the answer trying to figure which is the best version of the answer. >> ever -- wonder if collating information and putting it together, does it ever kick that secondary, the next leap, rich,

that you bring to us all the time? i don't know -- >> a.g.i. you're talking about, joe, andrew is alluding to it. think why sam altman converted this company into a for-profit and what the long-term goal is whether at google gemini, or openai or anthropic. everybody is striving. who gets to a.g.i. first? first, is it possible and then who gets there first? that will be, rewards -- that is the huge prize and someone like zuckerberg. you saw what he showed off last week. video a.i. built into meta next year? a lot of this is the sleeping giant we don't talk enough about. >> okay. >> and llama -- ask rich. you said llama. also thinking talking to walter isaacson last week focused on xai, gone so fast so far so quickly. >> and one advantage no other model has. right? it's got access to everything in

the x twitter fire hose and that training data is invaluable and nobody else has that. so elon's got something that be really meaningful not just to make the x platform better but from an a.i. platform what can he do? a huge opportunity for the team at xai. they don't talk a lot about it. but it's huge and hard to figure out winners and losers and how behavior changes. it's been a couple of years but still so, so early. >> all right. rich, thank you. as always. >> thanks. >> when we come back a lot more right here on "squawk box." talking about the state of economy off friday's hot jobs report with less than 30 days to go before the presidential election. don't go anywhere. we're coming right back and you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "squawk." a few economic stories to get

into with our next guest including friday's much hotter than expected jobs report. a new projection on presidential candidates economic outlook. joining us, jason furman. professor at harvard of school of government and former congressional budget office director. and also president of the american action forum. going to say do you see marco rubio, the tweets over the weekend? claiming that these, you know, that somehow these jobs numbers were ar officially inflated? jason, curious what you thought of the numbers themselves and some of those accusations? >> it's just sad when people respond to the jobs numbers that way. it's obviously incredibly non-partisan. up front people doing this. interestingly, actually upward revisions to the previous two months. my hope is sthap that they figu whatever was causing negative revision after negative revision

and i'm not sure they tried to figure it out. it changed the narrative established two months ago when we saw unemployment spike. always temporary noise and layoffs. hurricane, et cetera going on then and two more months of data on the labor market, powell? >> certainly. it went from, is it going to be 25 or 50 at the next meeting to, is he even going to cut rates at the next meeting? inflation is still way below where it was a year or two ago, and so, rates should be way below where they were a year or two ago, so i'd like to see him continue cutting, depending on what the data shows, but there's no reason at all that that needs to be a rapid process, you know, another 50. >> doug, if you were teaching an economics class, how would you grade this economy? >> this economy's in very good shape in the near term, andrew, no question about that. i think friday's report was

really good for the fed. you know, they had shifted the attention to the employment growth part of the mandate. that was a very strong report. it says that you don't have to worry as much as you might have thought and can continue to be looking at both the inflation and the employment mandate. i think it takes 50 basis points off the table but i don't see them not cutting. i they don't like to start and stop policy. i think they signalled pretty clearly that 25 basis points going forward. i was in the camp that thought they could do 25 to begin with. this just takes all the 50s off the table for the foreseeable future and i think it puts a lot of pressure on the cpi report this week. i mean, they have made the case that inflation will return to the 2% target and remain there, and you know, core cpi is still anticipated to be 3.2 year over year and getting it to 2% remains, in my view, an unfinished task. so, they still have some work to

do on the inflation front. >> jason, what do you think about the arguments that have been made -- and these are political arguments, but maybe you'd argue they're economic arguments, just about wages, that wages ultimately have not kept up with inflation, depending on what date you start at. steve liesman was here on friday and used 2020, when the pandemic began, as the date. others have used when president biden -- >> he did pre-pandemic. 2019. >> right. >> up since then but down -- >> how do you think that the american public should think about that? >> yeah, so, i think the three facts that are correct are, number one, wages are up faster than inflation. number two, a lot of those gains were in the year 2020. number three, even those gains are less than normal pace, and i'll give you a bonus fact, number four, there are larger gains for workers who have lower wages than for workers who have

higher wages, so there's been some compression of the wage difference. >> you're saying, if you include the 2020 period? >> if you include the 2020 period, yes, that last point included the 2020 period, which is when a lot of these real wage gains were. i think there's some reason for people to be a little bit disappointed with this economy. growth is fantastic. inflation is in the right direction, but people got themselves into a deep hole in 2022 and 2023. they're digging out of it with real wage gains now, but i think in some sense, they're not all the way out. when i say, not all the way out, that's relative to trend or expectations. they still are above inflation adjusted so i think for the fed, that actually gives them more room to cut rates. it means some of the wage growth we're seeing is catch-up with what happened before, so this is dovish information for the fed. i don't think it fully explains how negative people have been about the economy, but it's a totally valid reason for people to be concerned. >> doug, you want to react to

that? >> yeah, i think it's not too complicated. if you do it on political grading, you start in 2021 when president biden took office. and you know, we had low unemployment through '21, '22, but negative real wage growth, so people went to work for two years and got further behind and they didn't like it a bit, and now that reversed recently, but not everybody has claimed all the way out from that and they're still upset about their standard of living growth during his tenure, and that's all there is to it. >> jason, doug, thank you for joining us this morning. 're going to come right back after this with a lot more on "squawk."

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jpmorgan chase and wells fargo will kick off earnings on friday. joining us now with what to watch, the most important point that's happened recently, david, i guess, is the 50 basis point bigger than people thought and that's what could make this quarter a little better for banks? >> you know, and thanks, joe, good morning, and i appreciate you having me on. the 50 basis point cut from our perspective on the near term is a positive. i think it's important that bank investors have been fretting a

little bit about the prospect of additional 50 basis point cuts. the industry, zwjoe, from my perspective, at least, would really prefer a more moderate easing in fed policy, most notably more 25 basis point cuts rather than an aggressive number of 50 basis point cuts and that is due to deposit betas and deposit movement and more gradual easing, we think, in policy will be more well received by the stocks and from an earnings perspective, so the initial 50 is fine, but from our standpoint, the group would more likely prefer more 25, a more -- a little bit more less aggressive fed over the near term. >> other than just net interest income or whatever you get for a steeper yield curve, it helps with m&a, doesn't it? i mean, lower rates, does it help there? does it help with loan growth? does it help with anything else that makes improvement in this quarter more likely across the

board? >> yeah, so, from a fee perspective, that is going to help, particularly in the fourth quarter. we think fee income expectations are going to be fairly healthy in the fourth quarter, as well as into 2025, so to your point, i think loan growth should show some improvement. loan growth has been fairly slow. it's only been about 1% or so. we're of the view you should see an improvement in loan demand as we go into 2025 with lower short-term rates, we think, will help, as well as the fact that the economic data suggests that we're in kind of a no-landing scenario and also to your point, we should see an improvement in m&a activity to the extent that short-term rates are lower, so that will help but it's important to keep in mind that net interest income is about 70% of bank revenue, so that's going to help on the fee side, it's going to help the big guys, but for the vast majority of banks, that net interest income number is going to be the most key determinant for revenue and earnings in 2025 and beyond.

>> it's the most wonderful time of the year and it happens four times, bank earnings, and i think -- and i didn't realize it was coming that soon. so, as i always say, we got that going for us, which is nice. keep it somewhat short this morning, but good to have you on. see you next time. make sure -- we got three seconds. join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street," right now. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. coming off an all-time high weekly close for the s&p, futures are mostly red here as we set the table for q3 earnings, beginning this week. twos, tens, reinvert. our road map begins with stocks. goldman upping its target for the third time this year and treasury yields do top 4% for the first time since august. plus, oil prices are rising

again as middle ea