cap bank, 3.5% dividend yield. >> joe t.? >> you have to give an energy name, diamondback energy, ticker symbol fang. that's the best name. >> i was just thinking you would say something about energy as we were watching crude oil. we'll take you through the final stretch. i'll so you on "the closing bell." "the exchange" is now. >> thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. investors are pulling a half-point cut ahead of the jobs report friday and one of our guests was one of the few economists who called that strong number. he's here with what he expects next which may surprise you and what he is looking for from the fed. meanwhile, new data on the

mortgage report from i.c.e. monthly pages have never been higher. we have the data and the decision homebuyers and sellers are facing because of it. >> and a downgrade for amazon, a red flag for alphabet and a giant election u-turn from a tech titan. it's going to be a busy one. dom chu is here to run through the numbers. >> pretty percentage point losses in each of them right now. you can see the dow industrials are down half a percent same with the s&p and the nasdaq composite. for the dow it turns into 235-some-odd points and it currently sits at 5726. at the lows of the session we were down 29. near the lows of the session, we were still down 12, and it's been a down day so far. the nasdaq composite is at 18053, down 85 points and a half a percent decline and that's half of the losses across the board for the major indices.

turning to the macro side of things. kelly pointed out the macro story. i want to show you crude oil. it is up 3.5% to $77.02 per barrel. the reason it's important is it's helping to buoy up the energy-related stocks and energy is the best performing sector so far today. some traders are watching this move right here to $77.32, and that is the upper end of the 200-day moving average or longer term trend line. we are bumping right up near against that the right now and keep an eye on the long-term trend lines and that's a reason why the $77 per garbarrel for benchmark prices at 4.02% going back to august 1st and that's how far you have to go back. still, though, stronger-than-expected jobs data, this idea that traders are getting too aggressive with their pricing of interest rate cuts down the line.

it's something to keep a close eye on, back above 4% and the highest since august 1st, kelly. i'll send things back over to you. >> the mortgage rate was at 4.60. >> it was 4.03 a couple of hours ago. >> we'll check back. thanks. investors are adjusting rate cuts with futures putting a 0% chance on a half-point cut. that was the conventional, and by not long ago i mean last week. the chance for a quarter-point cut is now at 85% following friday's blow-out jobs report which caught many by surprise, but not our next guest. his firm nailed it. they basically got friday's number exactly right, but he says we shouldn't expect to see these kinds of gains going forward. joining me is tommy simon, along with our steve liesman, welcome to you both. tom, not to bring you here. both you and i know and steve

know how important it is to get it right. there are a number of technical things kind of all coming together. what were those and why don't you expect similarly strong ratings in the last couple of months? >> sure. thank you for having me. yes, to your point, in economic forecasting getting something right doesn't give you much confidence that you'll continue to get it right, unfortunately. that being said, there were a number of technical factors lying underneath the surface that gave me this hunch that we could have a strong side surprise. so first up, seasonal adjustments and seasonality is pretty extreme in september because you have workers coming back to schools that have re-opened from summer break. oftentimes that ends up being plus or minus a million over the course of the summer and the investment factor is big. in this case, it's trying to push down the numbers and normalize it and what we've seen in the post-covid period, in my view is that the seasonals have

been taking out less in the months where they take months out so there's that. and the debt model which is running hot and generating a lot of jobs and based on the assumption that small business creation rates are smaller than 2021 and 2022. the re-opening story has mostly played out and we've matured past that and there are a number of quirks that are difficult to understand. >> sure. >> residential construction has been positive for three years now, something like that and this is as we're seeing the rates of home construction fall significantly and the rate of completions of those projects exceed the rate of new projects so that's unusual. usually, that starts to be kind of an impetus for lower construction payrolls and that will come at some point, but so far whatever is boosting them up is still intact, it seems. >> if the number is too good to be true, my word, not yours,

you'd think the market would wake up and start discounting that a little bit, but if anything, it's going the other way. it's saying more or less, we take this at face value and over the weekend i'm sure steve saw this, too. the number of strategists raising their year-end price targets and raising the expansion into next year. this seems to have been a catalyst for massive upward revision and broad, bullish sentiment on the market and the economy. is that a mistake? >> i wouldn't call it a mistake, necessarily. you can only do so much with the information that is in front of you and you can only make your best judgment based on your past experiences and what not. in this case, when people try to discredit the strength of a labor market report they look for inconsistent details, and if you were doing that this time around you would still be looking for them because there was nothing in the data at all that was in any way, weak, and to that point we have upward revisions for the last couple of months. >> true. >> this is following a year-long

period of time with downward revisions and everyone is looking at the 818,000 fewer jobs created in the last year and is now still focused on the slower period of growth that we saw in the end of 2022 and the beginning of '23. maybe that was the recession. >> i am so glad you put it that way and to make it through your forecast is from quarter-point cuts and much like the market and exactly when tom just said is did the slowdown already happen? >> yeah. first of all, hats off to t thomas. economists do a strut after getting the number close to right and that's real good work right there. >> thank you. >> i think what's happened, kelly, is an adjustment from the reasons why the market thought the fed was cutting. i think your question is a good been, but why is the market

taking this at face value? we have to think about where the market psychology was with the jobs number. there was a real concern that the jobs mark was weakening fast and we had a couple of bad reports and so what this did was draw people back to really be where the fed is. this idea of powell stepping forward and saying, hey, we're not cutting because of weakness and before the jobs number, yeah, you say that, but we don't believe you. now we kind of believe them and if you think about where we are now, we're now as you said, dialed out the 50 for november and now on the quarter and by the way, there's a 15% probability of no cut and then you layer that in to december and there's still a probability that if you cut the corner and the 11% probability they don't do it again and the more likely probability that they'll cut another quarter. so another 50.

guess what, kelly, that's where they are with the fed officials and what we've gone from is hey, the fed is going to cut because the economy is weakening fast to, hey, the fed's going to cut because rates are too high relative to inflation and the economy is okay. >> and steve, where does this leave us now for the next couple of weeks with the next big event being the election and other than cpi being, you know, negative and i just can't imagine what would move the market much in terms of its expectations for november. >> the cpi is something to be followed and the cpi and the ppi will come out with pce for the end of the month and that's the important metric. i'm seeing forecast for pce be relatively tame or the inflation relatively tame for this quarter. i'm looking at the retail sales number which comes next week and that's going to be a big metric to see how the consumer is faring and then we have another jobs report before the election and what i'm hearing and i'll do a report on this tomorrow, kelly, with the wrap it update

with the gdp forecast where they are for the next four or five quarters, and i'm hearing people say, you know what? the election is not necessarily a factor because we expect it in government. >> that's what we heard david tepper say. >> right. >> we'll give you the last word with the cpi coming up on thursday. what's your expectation? >> so, i, you know, more or less, it's exactly what steve just said. it's not a high likelihood that we'll get an upside or down side miss here and it looks like gasoline prices are pretty weak and we'll see pressure for shelter and that will be continued weakness in core goods and one more point that i just want to bring in to wrap up and what we were talking about before is the over pessimism. the national income and product accounts were another data point that came out last week that not a lot of people paid too close attention to, showed that the consumer savings rate was significantly higher than we thought it was and we're not as

over stretched on the household side as we were maybe a week ago and things will continue to plug along here pretty well, i would say. >> that was the gross domestic income revision when that also came up and we realized that was stronger than expected. you're right. it's been a consequential couple of weaks and not just the jobs report and even the fullest data set and the underpinning of what's going on with this economy. that's how you get a 6.5% mortgage rate. gentlemen, thank you. appreciate your time. tom a thomas, we'll have you back. thank you to steve. making job growth a key factor for misaction is miss guided gu guided in general. jeff, is here from charles schwab. what are the market implications of it? >> well, you know, i think one of the things as we take a look at the bigger picture regardless of what jobs are doing in the near-term and they are notoriously revised. the pmi is a data point that i'm

focused on and i'm seeing better economic growth earlier this year and one of the reasons why european stocks outperformed in the third quarter and that's not real low following through. we see a pullback in new orders and the manufacturing sector is up, following along with these lower rates, i'm afraid we might be disappoint if we go through the earnings guidance and what we hear on the earnings front and it will be earnings over the next couple of weeks that will be the key to stock markets. >> hasn't ism been contracting for a number of years now? >> it has, but it looked like it bottomed and it started to pick back up again. when i look at what the pmi does, it generally lags moves by nine months. it's been consistent for many decades and we are now at the point when we have 20 of 18 now cutting rates and it's usually the point at which you start to see a bottom and begin to move higher again. we're in the period of nine months when it starts to move up

from 50 on the global pmi to 55. that's shall usually a revision for stocks and they move higher and the jury is out as to whether we see the follow through. >> for you the most interesting point is to see theish sm manufacturing out in the first day of the month start to move up toward 55 in the u.s. does that make you not want exposure to industrials and cyclical stocks until you get that confirmation and follow through and the market more broadly? >> i think it's okay to build the positions now because the valuations are pricing in that it won't move higher above 50. so i think there sea some oppor financials. outside of financials it was the best performing sector in the third quarter and they're starting to sense there's value there as this upturn comes into play. there's relatively less down side and more upside if we do see the followthrough in the

pmi. >> curious, very quickly to your thoughts on the z relative to europe which did outperform last quarter and china. >> obviously, politics do have a bit of a factor tonight with regard to china. we'll get an update from some of the policymakers tonight 30 minutes after the stock market opens in china and we'll see if they deliver and most important if they raise the special bond issuance. if they don't and they're still vague on the followthrough on those announcements we can get a 40% gain. >> 40% gain. it went from a 52-week low to a 52-week high in the span of five days or something like that. so you're skeptical unless we get followthrough, and what would you do with emerging markets and with europe? >> so i would favor europe over emerging markets because we have the powerful china rally. if we start to see this followthrough in china, we have the luxury product makers in

europe beginning to perform well. all of those names really suffered earlier this year can start to see a turnaround and fairly well valuations. >> are you -- goldman raised the year-end price target and others have been doing imilar, but you are saying to people don't be so sure until you get confirmation from those isms. >> i am. that's why desert island piece of data. i'll get one economic statistic and that's what i want to see as it attracts lower interest rates and that's good news. at the moment we're seeing european companies outgrow it in the third quarter if that pmi arp the world begins to move up. that's the key. >> thanks for joining us. >> those mortgage rates are back on the rise and homeowners are also having to pay more now a days, pushing mortgage payment or housing payment to a record high. let's get the late of the, exact

read on raids and trump attending a rally and he's want the only tech titan, for his political stance. we'll take a look ahead on "the exchange." don't go anywhere. bchae"n is "the excng o cn.

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exchange." with the ten-year bond yield back above 4% today that has mortgage rates jumping again even after last week's surge. we are up to 6.6%. let's see what diana olick can tell us. >> so much for falling rates boosting the housing market. the 30-year fixed jumped another nine basis points after surging 27 basis points higher on friday following that stronger-than-expected monthly jobs report. these numbers according to mortgage news daily. the trajectory which had been lower through much of september is now higher and the most recent low was on september 11th at 6.11% and that was before the fed cut its benchmark rate. what does that mean to you in real money? if you're buying a $450,000 home, your monthly payment today is $120 more than it was back then, less than a month ago. while that might not seem like a ton as rates rise, fewer people qualify for loans and it's not like home prices are falling either and they're still higher

than they were this time last year. the home remo remodelers are no liking this. interesting, though, a monthly survey from fannie mae out this morning showed that in september consumer confidence in housing rose to its highest level in more than two years as consumer pointed out survey rates could rise. a record 42% of them said they expect mortgage rates to drop and that was done in the first two weeks of september and not so much anymore, kelly. >> no. you wonder now that this reality sinks in and it could take time for people to realize what that will do to intentions and affordability. >> they'll see it when they start applying. i'm interested to see what happens with the mortgage purchase applications which we get on a weekly basis. they have been rising and above year-ago levels for the past two weeks. i wonder if that's going to all turn around. >> for now, thanks. diana olick. it's not just borrowing rates that are climbing. property insurance is on the rise especially in an area hard

hit by natural disasters. the average mortgage payment just hit a $2,070 in august and with hurricane milton now a category 5 storm barreling toward florida less than two weeks after helene caused billions of dollars in damage, it's unlikely the insurance costs will come down any time soon. joining us to talk about that is andy walton, vice president of enterprise research at ice. it's good to see you. how much is insurance up from the trough? >> if you looked from four and a half years ago and started in the beginning of the pandemic. the average property insurance payment for a single family homeowner in the u.s. is up 352 where it was and that's much more than the tax rise of 15% to 17% among folks and property insurance versus these other expenses. >> so home insurance costs are basically up 50% since, as you said, maybe 2020. that is a massive -- do you know what the average property insurance cost is for homeowners

these days? >> if you look at the average monthly payment it's about $181 on average for the typical u.s. home owner and it can vary significantly depending on where you live across the country and when you look at those hurricane-prone areas and look at new orleans it's $500 a month and miami, you're talking close to $500 a month, as well. for these folks you're talking about one out of every $4 that you pay on principal, taxes and insurance and it's going to the monthly property insurance payment. >> is that cracking the market in certain areas and in tampa bay which we're all concerned about with milton bearing down that their listings are up and i forget the number, maybe 60% year on year and demand is down 10% and that could accelerate after what we see take place this week. is it going to have a longer term effect on the housing markets in these areas? >> yeah. i think it will. it's happening for two reasons. you mentioned insurance there. certainly when you look at home prices as well and you look at what's happened over the last four and a half years.

those are some of the areas where you've seen the largest home price games putting pressure typical home affordability and then you tack on 70% , 80%, 90% growth and absolutely you're seeing pressure there and when you look at the areas that are back to, quote, unquote levels of home affordability and it's the hurricane-prone areas of texas and hurricane-prone areas of florida where you're starting to see that inventory rise and you're starting to see the softer home prices, as well. >> where are those people going, andy, if they see priced out and don't desire living in the construction and what have you. do you know where they're relocating to? >> it's a good question. part of that is,and florida is a typical inflow from the new york area heavily. so you can see some folks that simply aren't investing in second homes down there in florida. if i'm looking at that time from a buyer perspective, i'm looking at some of those central areas

where home affordability is much stronger and compared to their own long run averages, as well. so i think it's possible that we could see migration toward the central areas that will have lower risk overall, but you have more of a broad sense of home affordability even with rates hanging in the six and now up closer to 6.5% range and you're still seeing relative home affordability in the areas of the country, as well. >> i don't want to call it a problem, but it's a conundrum. it still might be cheaper to go to florida with high insurance costs. you mentioned that there are a couple of markets nationally when we are seeing prices begin to fall and it's not an assumption that they'll fall on a natural basis at all, but where are the places where we're seeing pressure? >> the rust bell, inventory has been to price softness. any time you see inventory get back to the levels that we typically expect to see in those areas and i'm talking 2017-18

levels and it's centered around again, florida. if you look at the softest home prices in the last couple of months and they come in the state of florida and ease on a seasonally adjusted basis. austin continues to see softness and you're seeing it in the other rust belt areas where we saw migratory inflow, stronger than average home price growth even what we saw in the pandemic and you're seeing a reversal in course because there's relative inaffordability with the prices pushed in those areas. >> the sunbelt kind of areas. i anecdotally understand that midwest, northeast, some of those markets are holding up a little bit better? >> yeah. they're coming down from where they were, but those are still the strongest areas of the country. the midwest because of relative home affordability and the northeast because there simply isn't any supply up there and you're balancing subpar demand next to nothing in terms of

supply and very little improvement in supply in the northeast and that's where you're seeing home prices remain stick. >> andy, thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. andy walton with ice. before we go, take a look at shares of generac. shares of the generator maker start to get a big increase and hurricane milton str strengthened into the category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour and still on track to hit the tampa bay area on wednesday. coming up, automation remains one of the biggest sticking points for dockworkers as they look to lock in a long-term deal by january's deadline. we go live to one of the most automated ports in the country for a look at that impact on jobs. "the exchange" is back after this.

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higher. you can see that today, ten-year yield up 4% and the same for the s&p and the dow is down 243. now to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. >> kelly, thank you very much. as israelis mark the one-year anniversary since the hamas attack, the israeli army issuing an urgent warning today for roughly one quarter of lebanon's coastline ahead of oa maritime operation. the idf is warning tourists and local fishermen to stay away until further notice. democratic lawmakers are demanding food and beverage ceos crack down on shrinkflation. senator elizabeth warren and madeleine dean accuse general mill, coca-cola and pepsico of unfairly profiting through the use of so-called shrinkflation. all three company are yet to comment. the nobel prize in medicine honors two scientists for their

discovery of micro rna material that helps controls what cells do and when they do it. the work of americans victor ambrose and gary rufkin can help scientists create powerful treatments including those with cancer. see you in a bit. >> tyler, thanks. divided politics taking center stage in week end and not just elon musk attending former president trump's rally in pennsylvania. there's another titan making an about face ahead of the election. we'll tell you who it is and apple, jefferies re-rating the stock to hold saying expectations are too high for the iphone 16 and even the 17. we'll have more headlines after the break and apple shares down about a percent today. here's open aicoo brad lightcap on the partnership with the iphone maker. >> it's the first time that we're going to have ai really start to integrate into the device. you know, you think about how people have used ai to date it's

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>> welcome back. cnbc's mag 7 index under a bit of pressure today amid a slew of tech headlines. this is down 0.75%. goldman noting that this year marks microsoft's worst performance versus the nasdaq 100 since 2012, believe it or not. shares of amazon are also lower heading for their eighth down day in nine even with prime days kicking off tomorrow. shares are down 3% today. wells fargo gave them a downgrade warning. alone is not enough especially as retail competition grows from walmart's fulfillment options. walmart is looking for a boost from the prime day. see if that can give the shares and the sales a bit of a lift and breaking the four-week of gains and only down 1.3% and

j.p. morgan is writing the street expects the justice department to outline far-reaching potential remedies tomorrow as part of the antitrust case. analysts believe they could include ending all exclusive default surge agreements across browsers and carriers, separating android, chrome from google and limiting ai implementation and search. you can understand the nervousness there. shares of net flicks are lower after dueling analysts notes barclays, downgrading the stock to underweight saying netflix's premium valuation is for unrealist unrealistic growth and seeing opportunity in pricing and continued market share strength. nvidia shares are also higher today by about 3.5% as that company kicks off its ai in d.c. and they're bucking the trend of red otherwise for the mag 7 today. another sign of the growing political divides in silicon valley. one prominent vc is back peddling on his support for

trump each as elon musk hits the campaign trail. deidre bosa brings us the details in "tech check." >> an dreesen horowitz is one of the most powerful vc firms. when they came out in support of trump earlier this week for what they saw was his little tech agenda it was a big deal. here he was in a podcast. >> for little tech we think donald trump is actually the right choice and, sorry mom, she's going to be -- i know you'll be mad at me for this, but we had to do it. >> so he's suggesting that his mom and a lot of folks in tech that traditionally leaned more liberal that they would be upset at the decision for such high-prof high-profile support of trump and now three months later horowitz has flipped admitting that he's going to donate to

harris'' campaign and he and his wife have known her for over a decade and she's been a great friend to both of us. the firm itself will not be updating its own position. when i asked about the diverging views at the very top she told me that, quote, a donation isn't an endorsement and the firm could flip, too, if harris proves better for little tech. meanwhile, kelly, you mentioned trump's highest profile supporter in tech, elon musk, and all of this underscores how divisive this election cycle has become in tech. a lot of this may come down to access and entitlement. back to horowitz. he didn't have access to prdz, but his friendship with harris does give him a way into the white house if she's elected which he noted in that memo and his u-turn could suggest that might be more important than the actual policies which she acknowledges we don't have yet and have no indication what that will be. >> a couple of months ago,

leaning toward trump. >> is it 11ly split? >> not leaning on trump, they had a 90-minute podcast. they talked about why trump is better for little trek and andresen horowitz was going to donate to his campaign. marc andreessen hasn't changed anything and horowitz, these are the two influential vc firms in the valley and horowitz said he'll be donating to the harris campaign, which is interesting. when he came out with that support of trump a lot of folks noted that he had been friends with kamala harris and a lot of folks in tech support her. >> a lot of financial firms have the same thing and differences of opinion at the top. sometimes vigorously strong opinions in polar opposite ways. it's interesting how they can be successful in business because of it. deidre bosa. shares of super micro computers surging today.

the company reporting it is shipping 100,000 gpus per quarter. it announced a cooling solution for data center clients and lowering power costs. the sharesor pace for the best day since early march of 13%. a check on some of other movers next. cnbc is celebrating hispanic heritage this month. here's juan perez chief investment officer at salesforce. there's definitely tremendous opportunity for all of us in our country. this is truly a country of opportunity. i have also learned that it's my responsibility to take advantage of those opportunities. you have to take some risks. i tell many people around me that if you want to get to these levels, many time you'll r to sacrifice and go the extra mile and you have to put in the extra effort. h to sacrifice and go the extra mile and you have to put in the extra effort. a to sacrifice and go the extra mile and you have to put in the extra effort. v to sacrifice and go the extra mile and you have to put in the extra

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♪ ♪ >> welcome back to "the exchange." you see the dow nearing session lows and you don't want to read too much into natural disasters and the hurricanes are worrisome. we are waiting to see if there's more activity from israel toward iran on the one-year anniversary of the attacks last year. with all of that in mind the dow is down 270 points and half a percent declines for russell and the nasdaq and the ten-year is still sitting around 4.02 and pfizer with sources confirming to cnbc that the activist investor has built the billion dollar stake in the company as they pursue the turnaround. the shares are up 2.5% today and basically flat since january. they are certainly underperforming the broader health care sector which is up during that time. names hitting all-time highs,

meta, propelling mark zuckerberg to the number two richest man on the planet. an impressive run. exxonmobil, caterpillar, lockheed and rtx, formerly raytheon. and it is benefitting from oil prices which are back rebounding to the upside. coming up, we'll have dockworkers and board owners, they reached the temporary agreement on pay and ended a three-day port strike, but the issue of automation remains. kate rogers is at the port of los angeles with that story today. date? >> that's right. automation is aly urd key hurdl clear. we'll have more on that on "the exchange." etfs designed to outperform the index. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price.

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nate jones... lines things up... checks his fidelity app... looks to outside analysts to get a second opinion. nate likes what he sees... and he places the trade... talk about easier investing. ♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." last week's port strike was focused not just on the issue of employee pay, but also on the rise of automation at shipping ports. the dockworkers union standing fast on wanting to ban its use, but it's already taken hold on the west coast. kate rogers is at the port of los angeles with that story.

hi, kate. >> hi, kelly. automation will be front and center over the course of the next few months as negotiations continue. now last friday the ila said it wanteded more clear language related to automation at the east coast ports writing in part the ila negotiated restrictions on automation and semi-automation in the last contract. the ila just wants to tighten the language that no automation means no automation. this port is among the most auto automate in the country. that's due to higher volumes and different labor situations including ship to ground in the u.s. compared to ship to ship overseas. it's also a delicate balance between boosting productivity and retaining jobs for workers. another thing that factors in as we speak about competitiveness with u.s. ports versus international ports is not that all are operating 24/7. >> i will say that the u.s. is

missing on furthering 24/7 operations. that's the key to moving the card. lessons learned from covid-19 and the supply chain crisis, the cargo wasn't moving. a combination of the jobs weren't there and in other words, the workforce wasn't there. >> now investing in that infrastructure could boost business and automating work fo >> now, investing in that infrastructure could boost biz, and automating some of the overnight shifts could be easier than trying to find workers, but california workers are quick to point out automation is not the silver bullet. it takes years. it's a really delicate balance between making this work, the investment, and the time it takes. >> i didn't realize there was a difference going into effect on the west coast versus the east

coast, and if they are more automated, are there fewer jobs as a result? >> reporter: it's a great question and a tough one to answer. in terms of how automation is being used out here, it's things like crane operations and moving cargo around. they've also added more shifts from around 3:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. to keep things moving overnight. now, you asked about jobs. there have been two separate studies commissioned by different parties. when you look at the dockworkers commissioned study, automation was implemented between 2020 and 20121 021. they found paid hours for union workers actually went up over 10%, and that's over the same time period some of this automation was starting to play out. as you heard from mario cordero, 24/7 operations is key in his

mind in keeping the u.s. as competitive as possible. automation is also a factor, but, again, he's talking about remaining operational for as long a time as they can. >> would it be fair to say based on the studies there are fewer employed, but the oned working are earning a higher pay? >> it's hard to say. are there some getting more hours? they're measuring two different things and two parties interested in two different outcomes. >> i see. thank you so much. my next guest says automation pose as threat for his union workers. they represent some 155,000 workers across airline, railroads, and public transit systems. joining me now ahead of the election, john samuelson is international president of twu. is that hard for you to say as well, or is it just me? >> no, no, i'm used to it. >> i bet you are. thank you for coming in to talk

about this today. ahead of this election, you have already shown your support behind harris, is that right? >> yes, we have. harris has been excellent for propelling us forward during covid '19. it was a no-brainer for all of us. >> even with the shutdowns? >> even with the shutdowns. we recognize some workers support trump and we're divided but it really is a no-brainer. biden/harris have transport workers through the american rescue plan and american infrastructure bill and we focus on work for people, transport workers, and that's where we're at. >> i'm not surprised, but it's interesting how different the gap is between union workers and nonunion workers.

similar increases for benefits versus not having benefits. and is that, you think, something we should expect to see? do you expect to build an antagonism toward union workers or to make the case for those not in one to think about joining one? >> we're in touch with workers all of the time. it's part of our leadership goal, wlkd we know right now nonunion workers recognize joining a union is the greatest pathway for them to earn more money and better benefits if their families. so i think it's the first thing you said. there's no animosity. if they join a union, they're going to be better off. >> why is automation perceived to be such a threat? like any other industry, technology often eliminates jobs, but it leads to more productivity, to stay competitive. on some level at least for the port workers in particular a

recognition that what is so important you would not want to have the latest and greatest -- just like an office worker is getting microsoft co-pilot and ends up being more productive as, you know, pushed to the wayside. whether it's public transit, the railroads, or the workers, it's never used to eliminate head count. it's the same thing going on in the porlts. these employers, all they want to do is maximize their profits. it has nothing to do with protecting our industries and making life better. it has to do with maximizing profits by shipping cartels owned byprivet companies owned by foreign entities. >> i don't know the details for the ports. a hot of these are american companies.

they're airlines, railroads, public transits. i'm sure if you asked them, you know, we want to be productive and competitive for the long women. >> that's a very liberal way of looking at it. it's a bean count. it has nothing to do with improving service community. it's never about that. it's always about maximizing profit, never about making flights easier for americans flying. on the railroad side, it's the exact same thing. it's always about maximizing profit, chasing the almighty dollar, it's never about making life easy for americans. >> one quick last question as we have seen some unions with openness and not support. what is the policy issue that is

most important to you, trump versus harris, where it would make the biggest difference to your members, simply a pro-union versus what you consider a mind-set of policies or is it something more specific? >> i think with our members and certain will i the leadership of the twu, it's absolutely biden/harris, they have a pro-trade approach to life, leadership. i don't think the same can be said for trump. i think our members have a bit of a cognitive dissidence. they weigh that out against the sort of pursuit of cultural social issues that the democrats are a bit fixated on. if they focused on economics for people, the election would be a no-brainer. people have a tendency to look toward the republicans. even though they're anti-trade union, workers look to them because they get tired of the

cult cultural pursuits of the democrats. >> that's interesting, john. we'll leave it there. thank you for your time. john samuelsen. that does it for the exchange. tyler is getting ready for the stock session lows. i'll join him on the other side of this break.

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