this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. rates on the rise. the ten-year back above 4%, and been on the climb since the fed cut rates last month. the two-year moving in the same direction, as well what's the bond market signaling? we'll debate that. plus, prepping for milton. a massive cat 5 storm is bearing down on the west coast of florida, as the area is still cleaning up from helene. a live report on the path and the preps coming up. and later, breaking down a rare downgrade of amazon. and a resource stock one of our traders is calling a juicy long. >> oh, boy. i'm melissa lee here in studio

at cnbc, on the desk tonight, tim seymour, guy adami, dan nathan, and carter worth. we start off with two big factors waking on the markets. first, the rapid rise in rates that brought the ten-year treasury yield back above 5% for the first time since early august. the benchmark bond has rizsen 3 basis points in two sessions. the spread between the ten and the two hit its lowest level in a month. meantime, stocks tumbling late in the day, as tensions escalate in the middle east. the israeli military saying it will soon launch operations on lebanon's southern coast. so, does today's action mark an end to the record rally that we have seen in equities? are we going to stay above 4%. guy? >> well, first of all, we're here in ec -- >> historic. >> unusual. >> it's historic, yet, this is where we started. so, it's sort of a round trip. >> it feels natural. >> feels natural. >> we're closer than ever right now, i'm not sure how natural that is. >> what doesn't feel natural is

this bond move, and listen, i usually sail our crack staff back in ec, well, they're here in ec. you'll see that where we topped out on september 16th is exactly where we topped out back in december, which means that's where rates sort of bottoms and they've gone up every since. i think the optimist will say, guy, rates there going higher because the economy is on solid footing, the unemployment rate is stable. things are good. the pest msimist will say, the reason rates are going higher is not necessarily a good thing. that's what i'm laser focused on. >> the reason rates are going higher, is because the economy is on good footing and this is a die ynamic -- no. the volatility that is up 25% in the last few days, on a day when, yeah, the s&p was down, but certain parts of the market that i would have thought that gave investors a little bit of come fort, whether it's nvidia or semiconductors, i think leadership is very important, maybe back for the short-term. but the volatility is

interesting, given that it's not as if we have the moments. now, the geopolitics, maybe that's enough. question is, is the volatility more of a function of the short end of the curve, or the long end? the two-year, to me, is more indicative of where people think the fed is going to be. >> yeah. dan, what do you think? the volatile till close, the highest close since august 8th. >> yeah, i think folks are getting hedged up here a little bit, and that's what the vix is telling you, at 22 or so. when i think about the rate move, i think about the move in the dollar, which has kind of moved in lock step with interest rates over the last week, week and a half or so. and i think about the cpi that's coming out, i say to myself, okay, where's the leadership in the stock market? we have an s&p that's down 1.25% from its all-time high. if you look at the mag seven, i know we're going to hit those names in a second, five of the seven are underperforming the ze and p 500. microsoft lost all of its mojo, despite tesla having this big move off the lows, you know,

huge move off the lows, it's still down on the year, so, i find it kind of interesting. so, this is where i want to put it together. if rates are going to be higher, if the dollar is going to be higher, is that a headwind to the rest of the 493, which have done a lot of the heavy lifting over the last couple of months or so? and especially when you consider the mag seven, maybe not tesla, pretty immune to rate moves. i think that's the thing that's going to play itself out. maybe you see the hedging up in front of cpi, bank earnings and the earnings we're going to get over the next few weeks, but it feels like we're about to have a bout of volatility in the stock market, because we've had it in yields, we've had it in crude, and other, you know, commodities. we just haven't seen it in the stock market yet. >> yeah, not to mention the elections, throw that in there, in terms of juicing volatility. carter what do you make of the moves today? what do you make of the move in particular in rates? >> right, so, obviously the volatility is the key. if you think about, we closed

the month of july exactly where we are now. so, 4.02, we get a low of 3.67, back to 4.02. the real -- the real thing that has to be noodled and considered is, how sort of nonpredictive the street is, and there was higher for longer, and all of a sudden, they're going to cult forever, and now they're not going to cut at all. it's nonsense. we know rates got down quite a bit, now they popped quite a bit. but at the end of the day, rates are 4, 4 1/2, it probably -- and maybe the market believes this has been goldilocks in terms of the cost of capital on a ten-year basis. i'm not in the camp that we're going to five and six. it wasn't when it was popular then, i'm not now. i'm just -- probably where they belong, but with a bias to lower rates over time. as to the vix spike, yes, we've come a long way, and it's -- it's a precarious moment to be adding exposure to the risk asset class of equities.

>> carter really has a way of putting everything into perspective. >> exactly. noodled. we haven't heard that in awhile. but he's right. >> it almost doesn't matter, as long as rates stay within a channel and doesn't pop above, say 4 1/2, or go much below, very quickly, and it's the speed at which this is happening, which is sort of -- >> no question. the stock market's done well in terms of interest rates, higher rates, market's fine, lower rates, the market's enjoyed that. what is it trying to tell marmarket s? i'm glad tim brought up the volatility, because i do think that is a story that people are going to start to talk about. we had katie stockton on, i believe, in august, i think tyler was hosting the show that night, when the vix was 14, and she thought we were in for a period of volatility that typically lasts six to ninths. by august fifth, we saw the vix trade up to 60, and i think we're sort of round two on the volatility index.

i don't know if it's going back to 60, but the low 30s is feasible, and that's meant the market sort of sells off. >> fair. and again, all those things that we've said could be dynamics to take --or the risk for the market, it's certainly with the geopolitics. and that doesn't seem to be getting better. i would get back to market dynamics, which are very important. and we came into monday with goldman raising their target, with mike wilson and morgan stanley, who has been constructive on the market, but he's gotten even more constructive. so, the backdrop of the strategist world is that the market's going higher. if you look at nvidia today, you look at semiconductors, from that high on june 16th, 17th, it with us a 20% pull-back in the semis. we're up 10% since the lows on september 6th, and that's with higher rates. and if you look at a chart at nvidia or the semis, you can see that ultimately, they did bounce off the bottom end of that uptrend. so, i'm sure carter's got a view on this, i just get back to the leadership that the markets have looked for on the index level, something that's come from

semiconductors, and that's led the nasdaq, which has led the s&p. >> not too long ago, dan, you know, one would have argued, perhaps, that the fed's 50-basis point cut would have re-engaged, rein reignited inflation. so, the danger, potentially, would be the economy is too hot and the fed moves the other way very quickly. all this to say that, you know, we're trying to read the tea leaves and we don't exactly know what the message is at this point. >> yeah, again, so, if we don't know what the message is and all the things that we just laid out that potential headwinds, tim just mentioned that september 6th bottom we had, i think from the highs, we were down 4.5% or so. when you look at what's going on here, a vix that's at the same levels on september 6th, we have yields much higher, we have a dollar higher, so, it's about as clear as mud what's going on. when i think about this cpi report, though, i suspect it's very benign, right? so, you have the backdrop of the

stronger than expected job numbers in september, maybe it's just wages, maybe it's seasonal, who nome knows? but at the end of the day, i think the market overshot to the downside with expectations of further cuts, and here we are at a place where maybe november doesn't happen. if you look at the cme fed watch tool, i mean, we've seen a lot of juice come out of the potential for cuts. so, maybe we are where we should be, maybe equities just need to put a little fear in them, because there's a lot of other things going around in risk asset markets that suggest that, i go back to saying, you know, equities are the only place where we haven't seen any volatility of late. >> for more on the market moves, let's bring in peter bookvar. great to see you. as i understand from the note, peter, you are also a little bit flommoxed with the jobs report, and you cite a lot of data points from the beige book, which don't necessarily seem to

back up the idea or the thought of a strong jobs market right now. >> right. early september, when we heard the last banleige book, they tad about, at best, modest job growth in some regions, there was no job growth. you combine that with even right before the payroll number came out, the day before, the ism services employment component was under 50. you had elevated continuing claims. so, hiring is still okay, but it wasn't as robust as friday's numbers implied. so, i do think that investors need to look at the whole mow s sayic, not just take the friday payroll number on its surface and say, oh, everything's great, but piece it out with a lot of different things. and i think the economy is okay, it's very uneven, it's very mixed. the parts that are fine, and the parts that are not, and i think people look at the economy as this wholistic thing, things are great or not great, it's very much more mixed than that.

>> and so, all of this leads you to believe that rates will actually go higher, is that right? >> well, the way that i look at rates is, take the -- well, let's start with the two-year. the two-year is up 40 basis points since the day before the fed cut interest rates. 30 basis points of the 40 is higher inflation expectations. now, that is in part because the fed got more aggressive with the cut, then you throw in the china news, this lift in oil prices and back to the china news, copper prices, iron ore is at a multi-month high if you are a bond investor, you don't want to see the fed slashing interest rates, you want them to be more diligent and not complacent. on the longer end, to me, the 3.60, 3.70 level that we stopped at on the downside here is where the liftoff point was last july, when the boj got rid of yield curve control and we went to 5% so, we held that level here over the past couple of weeks, and obviously, it lifted to 4.

because i think if you're at the long end owner of a treasury, you don't want the fed to be too aggressive either, because that risks flaring up inflation, and that's not the thing that you wasn't to see. i do think, though, the potential for accidents here, guy mentioned earlier, deficits finally mattering you i think they do. all you have to do is look at the price of gold or the choppy behavior of the dollar to know that maybe it finally does matter. if the fed is going to keep on cutting, long rates are going to go up, and that's one of the fears i've had, just because short rates go down doesn't mean that long rates do, as well. and we have the risk then going higher. there's plenty of real estate people on the commercial side and if you are a residential potential buyer, saying that, oh, the fed is going to cut interest rates, i'm going to get a lower mortgage rate, that move has already happened and mortgage rates are ticking up again. >> peter, real quick. we've talked about chinese stocks over the last couple weeks, 35%, 50% moves in these names which makes sense on the equity front, but does that make

the fed's job more difficult? i'm of the belief that that's just going to sort of accelerate the possible, you know, inflationary cycle that i think we're still in. thoughts on that? >> it definitely complicates that. i made it a point over the weekend to try to find every article i could to see what was the consumer response to all the moves the chinese took to put a bottom in residential real estate, and things got busy again over the weekend. now, i don't think xi wants to inflate the housing market again. he just wants to have it bottom out, but there are signs that maybe it is going to be bottoming out. if that's going to be bottoming out, you can argue that commodity prices are too, and that's why i'm very bullish on most come mod tipmoditicommodit. >> peter, great to see you, thank you. >> thank you. >> the call on commodities, that's been a hot one on this desk, as well. >> it has. peter is bullish on

commodities. and going into a lot of this, one of the things i've been saying, it seems so obvious, is that equities and credit weren't pricing in negative dynamics. commodities and the rates market were pricing in recession. so, you could make an argument that what's going on in rates and commodities is something that's just taking out some of that over, i think some of the movement to the downside. get back to the china news, what does it have -- i think a very big impact on the following trades, it is iron ore, it is freeport mac, it's southern copper. i think those continue to go. they've been moving. we have a news alert on the fda being sued by the drug compounding group. angelica peebles has the latest on this one. >> that's right. an industry group that representing compounders is suing the fda, saying they took tirzepatide off the shortage list even though it is still in short supply. remember, tirzepatide is the active ingredient in mounjaro and sezepbound.

we'll keep an eye on this. melissa? >> do they offer data on why it would not be in short supply? because as i understand it, the wait times in terms of, you know, your ability to get a prescription filled is actually a lot less now. >> it's a great question, and we just got this, so, i haven't got a chance to go through the full lawsuit, but they're saying the fda acted too quickly and it still is in shortage, though they took it off the list. so, again, we'll have to say exactly what they're claiming in this lawsuit. >> fascinating story. angelica, thank you. let's turn now to a couple of big tech calls today. we'll start off with apple. down slightly today after jeffries downgraded this one. analysts saying the near-term expectations for a.i. is too high, as the technology will not likely be commercialized in apple products for two to three years, not in time for the new iphone 16 or iphone 17. jeffries price target applies 4% downside to today's close. dan, i think you're pretty much on the same page as jeffries on this one.

>> yeah, well, this was what i was saying in early june after the company rolled out apple intelligence, and i was wrong, you know, i mean, listen, the stock rallied 15%, and really had to do with the upgrade c cycle, or, like, the way analysts were calling it the potential for a super cycle. and i just don't think that's going to happen. i think a lot of stuff they're going to roll out on october 28th is a software upgrade. the promise of apple intelligence is going to be on device. the analyst makes the point that the devices don't have the memory, they don't have the computing power to do this in a way that a lot of folks might hope for. i think you're going to see apple probably come down as we get through the rollout of this software upgrade, and i just don't think you're going to see that upgrade cycle and the hardware is a stock trading about 32 -- 30 times next year, a little expensive. yeah, it probably is, when you're considering that revenue growth is going to be high single digits. maybe you get 10% earnings growth, but at the end of the day, i just don't think it's a

real compelling sort of offering, you know, from the company here. and i almost think that the advertising has been very disingenuous. >> check out shares of netflix, as well. that stock dropping 2.5% after d dueling calls on wall street. barclays downgrading the stock to an underweight, which is very rare on the street, saying growth is slowing and the valuation is unrealistic. carter, i have to go to you. you often cite analyst calls on the fact that you've got such dispersion here on a single day is pretty interesting. >> right, so, just to spend two seconds on it, one can go with one single expert, maybe it's a chartist, maybe it's a fundamental analyst, or one could go with what is so valuable, collective wisdom, crowd sourcing. that's what charts are. should we go with the one who upgraded, downgraded, or go with the chart? i think we go with the chart. it's got major holders in there. some that are short, some are long. and it's a decent chart. it's an uptrend that's in tact,

it's exhibiting tremendous relative strength versus other marquee names such as amazon and google. my hunch is to retain longs if you are long. shares of nvidia up nearly 3% today for its fourth straight day of gains. it is now up more than 40% from its august 5th lows, less than 10% from its all-time high. the chip maker kicking off a three-day a.i. summit. morgan stanley reiterating the stock as overweight. >> you know, we've talked about this, i think carter talked about it last week. you're in this pennant formation in nvidia, it's going to break one way or the other. today, it showed signs of breaking to the upside. but i still think that pennant is in tact. the june 20th level, i think the stock closed above 140 that day and reversed. that's interesting. it's not been broached yet. so, the question is, which way does it break? is it going to break to the upside or the downside? today's action suggests the upside. we'll see, though, it's not there yet, mel. >> in the case of nvidia versus an apple, i think you obviously have two stocks where i would

stay with carter. i don't think the expectations in apple are that great. nvidia, we know they're great. so, we've dealt with some production issues, we've had the company come back and pretty much reassure. fourth quarter demand, they're saying, is going to be extremely strong, and i get back to the stock and i get back to even some of the market dynamics that have made nvidia an outperformer in addition to those ones that are obviously nvidia-specific. i think the macro supports nvidia. i think it supports the names where you have growth and i think the market is less worried here. coming up, big names on the move today. pfizer, amazon, tesla. the reasons why they're capturing our attention. plus, millions of americans preparing for hurricane milton, now a category 5 storm. the latest on evacuations and the life-threatening surge next. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered.

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approaching here. right now, it's a category 5, with 175-mile-per-hour winds. people here are showing up at the beach, many tourists, including one i spoke with, her family here from switzerland. they are now packing up and going to miami, where they think it will be safer. listen. i'm guessing this isn't what you had planned for your vacation? >> no, really not. we're going to the sunshine state, and now it's rain and now a hurricane is coming. >> yes. is there any thoughts for the people of florida or anybody else that may be wondering what to do next? >> well, we hope they are all going to stay safe and -- yeah. we're praying. >> and melissa, for other people we spoke with, they are staying put, they've gone out, they have gotten their supplies, but they don't know where to go, because of this cone of uncertainty, we still don't know exactly where milton will make a direct hit. so, people are waing to get more updated information. we are still two days out from

the storm, making landfall, and right now, people are just preparing as much as they can. governor ron desantis says they have discorded or removed some 500 truck theloads of debris, w is going to be pretty significant obstructions in the storm, because they can be used as projectiles once the tropical force winds pick up. that is a major concern. they are now asking people to discard their own debris at landfills to try to help get some of the debris out of the area. melissa? >> dana, thank you. we are expecting landfall on wednesday. very dangerous storm as it is right now. and of course, we did see that move in oil, we saw a bunch of moves here, tim. you're looking at oil specifically? >> well, oil is fascinating, and it is usually less around weather disruption for me. what's going on in the middle east is certainly critical, and i'm not shush sure from the geopolitical chess world, and i do mean the map, oil facilities are in target, but we're at 4.4 million barrels of global reserves, we're significantly

lower than we were last year. that 4.4 is apparently the lowest on record at this time of year. so, i do think there's an argument that oil can stay higher, and getting it back to some of those energy equities, which were outperforming even before the underlying started to rally, which we always point out, that isn't necessarily great for owning exxon, but it's at all-time highs. >> look at home depot. you'll see the prior all-time high, the fall of 2021, the stock traded $415, and look where we traded up to now. i don't think valuation is a huge concern, at 25 times next year's numbers. it's not historically expensive. however, the technicals might start to get in the way here. a couple of upgrades, but you need a breakout now through 420 and my sense is, we're going to stall here. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next.

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to mount a turnaround at the pharma giant. >> at this point, we know that starboard has about a billion dollar stake in pfizer. we don't know exactly what they're pushing for, but remember, covid has transformed the company. in 2022, the company had $100 billion in revenue, but just last year, that fell 42%, and they went on a bit of a shopping spree. they spent about $70 billion on mergers and acquisitions. the biggest one being that $43 billion company for seagen. i want to talk about the $5 billion purchase of global blood therapeutics, and that gave it a sickle cell drug. and that drug was always a bit controversial, but pfizer went out, they did that deal, and just a few weeks ago, they took it off the market, because of some safety concerns, and i think that's one to focus on, because that speaks to this general reluctance on those deals that it made after that covid boom, so, that's one to talk about going forward, and, again, we have to see exactly

what starboard wants from the company, but that stock down about 50% from its pandemic high. >> so, it still has a lot of cash to spend, but i guess the question is, they don't have a very good recent track record. some people were even criticizing the seagen acquisition, saying it didn't add much to revenue. >> it was a massive deal, and i guess that's the question, because this is a company, do you trust that they're going to say, there's $25 billion of new risk adjusted revenues coming in by 2030, which is -- pretty extraordinary number, again, given those revenue numbers you put out. i'm impressed the company didn't rest of their covid laurels, and obviously, i think the market knows that the loss of exclue safety profile for a lot of their drugs is pretty ugly out two years. do you believe that management is -- what they've told us here? >> we'll have to say. and that's the big question. can they manage these -- these loss of excluive sis over the next few years? they have ely kwis coming off

patent. it's going to be a big thing to manage. they've talked about how they think the seagen will get bigger over time. and i was looking for 2027, some of the numbers are $3 billion, will that be enough, though, to overcome those other l.o.e.s? >> guy, we talk a lot about the weight loss space and how many smaller players there are out there that are ripe for acquisition. >> it would seem lodge came. >> by some large -- >> yeah, in that mode, should make a play for one of these and potentially buy themselves a lottery ticket, given their pipeline and given some of the other things. it makes a lot of sense. and i do think that's going to happen. but maybe what happens here with starboard taking a stake, what happens to albert, who has been on tv probably more times than us over the last few years, and d is he focused enough on the core business? you're going to hear rumblings

if he's the right person for the job. and this almost forces them potentially to go down the road we're talking about. >> they announce tomorrow he's out. >> ceo change. >> where did it close? 29? i think it's a $32 stock. some analysts have $35, $36, that's really not even moving the needle that much, that's probably getting back to where it should be in the first place. >> reportedly part of the starboard sort of effort, have we heard from them, what they're angling for? >> well, we know from what my colleagues have reported is that they are, they have been talking to board members, trying to get in on this, and i think for -- if you are albert, obviously, that's not a good thing if you are a person who picked you to lead the company is involved in this. again, we have to see how this shakes out. you know, he has said, we talked to him earlier this year, and he was saying, look, you know, i'm disappointed in the stock price, it's a year of execution, it's almost the end of the year, you haven't seen the stock move. so, we have to see, you know, can he overcome some of those doubts? >> right. angelica, thank you.

>> thank you. >> you are a shareholder, tim. >> the stock needs a catalyst. and it's not expensive. at least on the current year. so, they're going to see eps growth of almost 40 , and then it's going to be this 4% to 5% range. and what happens with this pipeline -- it feels like anybody knows. this starboard news is very important for the stock. if you look at the stock from the chart's perspective, maybe carter's got a view, after a long basing period, it's started to trade -- held that 200-day, back above the 50. it's not expensive, and a lot of bad news is in, and i think there are opportunities. >> carter, you see the same chart? same conclusion as tim? >> absolutely. i mean, that's just exactly the circumstance at hand, and we might have some charts that depict that, but what a bearish to bullish reversal buy is is something that has the precondition of shocking bearishness, and that's the case, of course, with fipfizer,o then stop going down. and you measure that, or come to that conclusion by using your average price over 150 days, some like the 200 but the

smoothing mechanism, you can see it here, is no longer declining. this is, if you want to call it a rounding bottom or a base, but i prefer a bearish to bullish reversal. coming up, alcoa bucking the trend. why it could be a juicy way to play the material space. but first, amazon shares dropping on a big downgrade from wells fargo. is the competition finally catching up to the e-commerce giant? more "fast money" right after this. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. , lower back pain, and shortness of breath, i thought that's what getting older felt like. thank goodness... ...i called my cardiologist. i have attr-cm, a rare but serious disease... ...and getting diagnosed early... ...made a difference. if you have any of these warning signs, don't wait, ask your cardiologist about attr-cm today.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks dropping to start the week. the dow falling 400 points. the s&p and nasdaq both down a percent. tesla falling 4% today. some customers claiming insurance provider geico was terminating policies for cyber truck owners, saying it did not meet underwriting guidelines. geico denying those claims. and some defense stocks hitting record highs. generac jumping as hurricane milton makes its way towards florida. dan, what do you think of tesla

this week? >> i think it's a tough setup when you think about the rally the stock had. the cyber truck thing is kind of a rounding error -- >> sorry, robotaxi, i misspoke. >> yeah, i mean, same difference. don't hold your breath, people. there's not going to be a tesla roe bow tack sic, you know, on the ground any time soon, probably not for a couple of years. if investors got really excited about that, they are probably better off focusing on the deliveries that the company just reported for q-3, which was somewhat disappointing, especially as estimates had come higher, but to me, i think it's probably a sell the news. shares of amazon dropping 3% today after wells fargo downgraded the big tech stock from overweight to equal weight, citing competition from walmart. jeffries still bullish on the stock, currently with a buy rating with a price target of $225. so, brent, welcome to the show. >> thanks for having me. >> there's also -- you layer on top, just in addition to competition, the other side of the business, and the fear that there's overspend on cloud.

how do you sort of address these bear arguments? >> i think tactically, it's right to think that off income could fall in the interim, given what's happening. in the front half of the year, two-thirds of amazon's profitability is from aws, and the margins were unsustainable at 37%, 36%, so, margins will fall in the back half of the year in amazon aws. they're getting ready for a.i., they're about to launch satellites to help, you know, in rural areas to get access to help those businesses and consumers, you know, there's an advanced investment, as we go into the holiday season, so -- i think given the outperformance and the margin, remember, they have been beating pretty big on that income. so, i think that most of us all have that in our model. so, we believe tactically it's important to call that out, that some of the margins in their

most profitable business is probably unsustainable in front of the biggest a.i. wave that we're seeing. so, i think everyone should be braced for that. the question is, is this the new amazon, where they're going to spend and margins are going to be sustainably lower? that changes the profile. the stock works in harvest mode. it doesn't work as well in invest mode. i'm not sure that this is a year-long invest mode. this may be a quarter or two. and ultimately, we believe, again, when you have 50% market share in cloud, you have a huge advantage in a.i. and so, it's going to take investments, you've seen it in capex, you've seen it in their spend, so, we think this will pay off. so, tactically, yeah, many of our hedge fund clients are short or underweight amazon going into this period, with the uncertainty that you can see that's building in the model until the back half of the year. my view is that it seems to be more of a tactical change, and,

again, i haven't spoke to andy jassy about this, but spending 25 years in the software industry, software industry observers like high margins and jassy is a software guy. so, my sense is, he'll find cost discipline and operational improvement in other areas of the business,and we've seen that in the logistics business, the consumer business. he's repeatedly been asked, why doesn't he just parachute everyone into grocery, and he said, hey, we have to get this right. we're not going to move into a low margin business and not get it right. so, i think, again, when you look at the leadership of the company, he understands high margin, high recurring, high visible businesses, and we think that is an advantage for a long-term shareholder that they're not going to do anything crazy with the cost structure, that this may be a very temporary impact, as we go into the quarter, and again, they tend to guy very conservatively on margin, so, i think all the fears are warranted, and certainly, they've been saying this, they can't sustain a 36%,

37% margin at aws, we have margins going into the low 30s, the rest of the street already has that forecasted, so, i think part of this is expected, and then part of it is, like, are we going to open up the closet and is it going to be, you know, something scary or -- and long-term, or is this going to be a short-term impact. >> brent, you pretty much addressed my next question, but i'll ask you anyway. what is the one important thing to look for? as an analyst, i think wells fargo downgraded the stock today, as well. it's got to be hard, because amazon seemingly can move the needle in terms of operating margins whenever they want. should we be looking more at aws growth? what's the one thing market is going to be focused on in terms of stock price? >> aws has always been mine. it's two-thirds of their operating income. you're seeing an acceleration in that business. so, first and foremost, aws

growth continue to acceleration into the high teens, low 20s, and can they sustain that acceleration? and then on the flip side, on the margin, you know, how far will margins fall after they were unsustainably high in the front half of the year? so, we break into the high 20s or low 30s and they don't show acceleration in the u.s., then that's going to be the big issue that we're watching. advertising is number two. and then the consumer business is number three, which is a low margin business, and most of our xints are more focused on the high margin businesses. >> brent, great to speak with you. by the way, tomorrow is the start of prime day, again. it happens -- >> i'm going to be up late. >> lightning deal. >> there's a lot to do. >> up late tonight or -- how does it work? midnight tonight? >> making my list, checking it twice. >> good for you, tim. >> there's a l progression, they went from $290 a share, the street around $480,

to $580 and moves out to $737 in '26. i mean, the growth here of the megacap techs outside of, you know, nvidia, is extraordinary. and i think the core business is one that's very well footed. again, with a focus, possibly, on higher margins. >> quick check on the chart, carter? >> yeah, the thing is, amazon's the same level it was at the end of q-1, so on march 30, it was 180, it's sitting there right now. the s&p and the qs are both up 8.5%. you heard about what hedge funds are doing. i'm seeing the same thing in my conversations. people need alpha, it's not an alpha generator as of now. we have a news alert on adt and a cyber security incident. julia boorstin has those details. >> that's right. adt reporting a cyber security incident, saying the company believes an unauthorized actor accessed data associated with employ year user accounts. now, they say based on the investigation to date, the

company does not believe that customers' personal information has been exfiltrated or that customer security systems have been compromised. but me lis sashgs you do see that the stock is trading lower in afterhours trading. and they warn that the containment measures have resulted in some disruptions to the company's information systems. stock is now down about 2% in afterhours. >> security company got hacked in a cyber security -- >> we have a cyber break-in. >> julia, thank you. coming up, a juicy chart setup in a metal stock. oders e chart master says on pruc iripe for the picking. "fast money" is back in two. at pgim custom harvest, our unique di shaping tomorrow, today ♪♪ our unique di [inner monologue] in this gig... you get comfortable being uncomfortable.

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welcome back to "fast money." al alcoa eeking out a gain today. the chart master says it is starting to look like a juicy name to play to the long side. that's carter's word, juicy. what do you see in the charts? >> that's right. the brief report was titled just that, juicy. before we look at the charts, it's important to know, this is a stock that's traded the same as it was 20 years ago. it's not an investment, it's been as high as $100, as low as $5. it's a trading vehicle.

this is a trade, and we could trade it. so, let's look at the three charts we have, and what you have here is a long and protracted decline, it has all the elements of a bottom, or, again, a bearish to bullish revers annotations and put them on a longer-term chart. and so, if you look at this next iteration, this goes back all the way to the covid low. we've moved out of this formation. relative strength is very important. final chart. it's the same chart, without some of the drawings, but the point is, this is the kind of thing that is just beginning. and to be up today, in a tape that was very sloppy, that is the definition of something you want to seek. we like it long. >> a juicy long. tim? you used to trade in alcoa. >> i did. and i -- i'm not sure i ever used this kind of trading terminology, but i would agree with carter. i would agree with carter.

i also think that the china news over the last couple of days, we have not seen a material change, and there have not been any drivers to the price of underlying aluminum. i think the chart is certainly juicy. the core business is one that i think we need to see more followthrough from china, but it has been dead. >> throw up a freeport chart, right up against these levels we traded at and failed a number of times. the average price target is 55. and you will notice that tim has had a smile on his face with all this juicy stuff, because back in your day, you were a big juicy couture guy -- >> back in the day? how about juicy fruit? that was a terrible gum. >> the first couple chews were fine. >> you need more out of your gum. >> you need more out of your gum. >> the sozebra fruity gum -- >> fruit stripe. >> good old days of gum. all right, coming up, shanghai's main stock market set

to reopen after a long holiday hiatus. what to expect as they go back refa meyin mo "ston" two. ♪♪ ♪♪ sandals jamaica sale is now on. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals

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reopen in just a few hours after the seven-day golden week. the shanghai composite had been rallying into the holiday. while they were closed, the u.s. traded china etfs were all in rally mode, andcasino stocks strong, up big since october 1st. so, the question is, what happens at this point, when the markets open? >> i added small to some melco today. i think the dynamic here post-golden week, i'm not playing for the macro, i'm playing on a multiple dynamic. really, t's a price to sales. i love the valuation, so, it is valuation, but i think this news, and again, i can see this in the options markets where even an alibaba, sellinguing up calls, i'm trying to take advantage of a long position. >> dan, what do you think about the kweb kind of names? >> i think they're fine. they're really obviously geared toward the consumer. i wouldn't chase them here, and

i think it's going to take awhile to see some of the stimulus work their way into consumer balance sheets. a lot of them are kind of weighed down with a lot of the property market, so, there's a whole host of things that i think remain headwinds for it to work into their earnings and sales. >> i think tim is right to sellup side calls in alibaba. january 2023, it topped out somewhere between 123 and 125, which is where it should stall, now not to say the trade is over, but you are probably going to get some sort of reversion to the mean at some point, you know, back to the 105 level or so, so great trade without question, but you're trying to find an entry point here, not an exit point. >> goldman upgraded to overweight, saying 15% to 20% upside could be had from here. carter, what do you see in the chart? >> yeah, the strength, up some 50%, in the fxi and kweb, over 20 sessions, is both two things at the same time.

it's a reason for a long-term player to get involved only now. and for a trader, up 50% in 20 sessions, sell it all. you have to know who you are in the market. up next, final trades.

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final trade time. carter? >> alcoa. an old world company that's bottoming. buy it. price target's 50. >> juicy long, he says. dan nathan? >> yeah, tim's pfizer. i think there's limited downside and barely -- lots of catalysts going forward.

>> timothy? >> great to be here at hq. >> fun, right? change of venue. >> fun spot. i think it's fun times in amazon these days. >> we had a fun time. we were talking about tattoos here. i love everybody here, it's a lot of fun. >> go to twitter, guy is --ndering where he should get his >> does anybody have jason. i love everybody here. it is a lot of fun. >> go to twitter. guy is wondering where to get his first ink. . my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. ♪ ♪ hey. i'm kramer. welcome to "mad money." friends, i'm trying to save you money. my job, not just to entertain b. twee