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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  October 8, 2024 9:00am-11:00am EDT

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decimal points are incredibly high. they've got a limited wall as they walk into the store. they prioritize nicotine first. and the other attachments are actually falling off. and that's really where the serious weakness is right now. >> bryan, we have ten seconds to the end of the show, would you buy the stock or not? >> i think it's a buying opportunity for the stock. it will get back on track over the next six to 12 months and it's trading at a discount. >> thank you, bryan. appreciate it. that does it for us, make sure you join us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. futures are mostly positive as stocks in hong kong suffered their worst decline since 2008. pepsi kicks off huge earnings. stocks watched watching hurricane milton had now one of
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the strongest billed storms in 20 years. east china jitters after beijing holdings off on further stimulus and one key fed official says our economy is well positioned. >> pepsico trims its revenue outlook says u.s. consumers continue to pull back on buying snacks and drinks. keeping an eye on shares in nvidia, six-week high. that happened in our show yesterday. more gains today. not from microsoft, but for nvidia. let's begin with the markets, though, from the u.s. to china. we mentioned hong kong, actually, the dwivergence, jim, between hong kong is historic. >> actually, there's this crazy component. there's not enough hot money that can go by shanghai and also by nvidia at the same time. the money flows back. finally, announcing a stimulus
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today, hennessey, one of your favorites, more than counting the cases. but all i can say, carl, ais tht if we can get that money back, the chinese money. everybody when the best in the world to say everything, today, it's like nothing. the money comes back, i think you'll see a decent opening. >> right. they had this press conference with this national reform council where i guess the details on stimulus were pretty light. >> right, the whole essence is it's the bazooka, david, the bazooka cannot just been done in eight days -- don't get me wrong, the baszucki. >> the fast money guys, there's an expectation somehow after china had been closed for a week that all of the domestic chinese investors would rush to buy. >> yes. >> because stocks were up so much.
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remember, other markets, hang seng, has been open -- >> china was closed. hang seng was open. that's hwhy hang seng is reflecting a new market. >> the chinese are, like, oh, no, sold to you, thank you so much. they're up, take a look at ba ba. >> they did it again, that what you're telling me? >> this is what happened. look at al ibaba. baba went from 8 to 14. >> yeah, i did that last night. f frankly, there's still a huge amount of cash. >> okay. does it deserve to bel 8, or down from 7, as the chinese come back from vacation, not to buy, but to sell. well, they didn't get like $1,000 per person thing like we did for covid.
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>> no, no, 9they didn't. there's a lot of hope built into a lot of announcements that didn't come. >> right. >> without specifics behind them. >> right. >> or at least in some cases. >> but, david, liquidity, liquidity. they put a lot of liquidity in, looked like you could buy back stocks without putting any money down, if it's your company. the companies were bidu and baba, they're still cheap on ail multiple basis. which would make it if you're a smart person, you're saying, now that it's finally coming down, let's buy the two that are good, bidu and baba. >> an interesting piece, how e-commerce is fueled. remarkable things will have happened. the own company getting a vote of confidence from williams.
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telling the lt, well positioned for a soft landing. >> right. you tweeted that piece, watch the futures. why aren't the futures coming down? well, first, money flow from china, but the second thing, don't panic here. we'll do the right thing. we keep talk about fed speak, or, you know, what, we can say, we're in earnings season. >> please, let's do that. had much happier doing that. >> that's when stocks change first. >> yes, they do. so, let's do that. >> pepsico. >> let's talk pepsico, stock is going to be down a bill. organic sales growth is not quite what they hoped for. bot the bottom line, more or less, stays the same. >> i heard people at home, they watch us. david, listen, see, when you have a stock that's down, down, down, down.
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and then everybody says, listen, a guide down, guide down, guide down. then they guide down -- so what? nothing really happens. that's what's happened. the stock is at 165. they're trying to jam it down to 164, they couldn't. 0.65. david, the fact is it's exactly what we expected. but as they put money behind lays, lays actually went up 3. you're saying wait a second. they're doing small-form factor potato chips. they're selling very well. they're still not seeing any demunn of sales. >> from wider population that
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uses them i don't mean just wide desperately, but wide. >> he will tell you, listen, it could happen. he's not a dismisser. >> all right. so, you clearly are somewhat positive on this stock? >> no, no, no. >> i'm positive on -- >> no? >> the price is such, remember, at 175, not positive. at 165, wait a second. how many people are going to downgrade this. and i do think that pepsi is an interesting stock. because if they spend, and they have the leeway to spend because they've got cost controls, then the stock can come back. i'm not saying sell here. >> to your point, it's really not looking like it's going to be down very much. >> right. >> at least in the premarket. >> because it's been down every market. >> pepsi continues to experience core growth at 8%.
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1% fsx headwind, you're talking 18%. >> what people understand, what you just said is the actual score of pepsi. you're very good. it's 8%. carl, when you see these things they did not guide in so-called algorithm, which is just a fancy way of saying we didn't guides d down from what we said we did. he's a great executive goes ar around the world and says, look, we have to have a little better healthier snacks. they made a vegan chip that people -- well, you don't know about vegan -- in the end, they have a middle east problem. >> he did say that there are pockets of geopolitical text and macro pressure that will continue to weigh on international markets. >> pakistan and turkey. >> listen to what he said on the
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call. >> we know this year is say year of normalization. that's what's happened. the consumer is reassessing patterns with mobility and some of the financial suggestion. now, going forward, within that, the category will continue to grow at the basis of the path because of long-term trends. >> i don't know if you saw katie huberty's chart, saying consumers trending down with less groceries. >> i thought that was interesting. i read katie's stuff. it is a tradedown. i will say, by the way, amazon, laguarta did say, best channel, best channel in terms of growth, okay? they also have that tv -- you take a look at walmart. saying walmart is cutting into amazon.
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looking at costco, walmart and amazon. trade down. but if you look at the prices of all three, i look at prime prices today, holy hell -- >> it's prime day. >> i mean, like load me up with apple. i know i'm going to hurt the numbers with bears. but there are deals on apple today on prime, you've got to check them out. >> oh, i will. thank you for letting me know. >> is it -- >> and i responded by saying thank you. what's the issue? >> carl, let me go back over some of these pepsi stuff. >> we've got to get on to hurricane milton. >> it's a major storm. >> no, i know. >> milton is cat 4, expected to return to cat 4, barreling to florida's west coast nearly two weeks after hurricane helene watered that region. jesse kirsch is there. jesse, good morning. >> reporter: carl, we're in an area that could be getting twice as high of storm surge as
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helene. i want to give you an idea what this looks like. the water level on this home was around my waistline from the last storm. again, we're talking potentially as high. sorry, we got a lot of bugs out here. you can see the debris, this is a typical scene after a hurricane, we've got furniture, and food. this is becoming more problematic once milton makes landfall. all of this could be projectiles. winds well over 100 miles an hour. we're also looking at storm surge that could become a battering ram. on top of all of the calls for evacuation orders, officials are scrambling to get as much out of the way as we can. this home's owner told us, he paid out of his own pocket, hundreds of dollars to get a crew to start removing some of this debris. even after some of it has been taken away. gives you an idea how much stuff is out here. exacerbating damage.
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and also makes it harder for first responders to get to people in the aftermath of the storm. all of that is going on top of what we're typically talking about in terms of a major hurricane. evacuating. prestaging of power stations and power crews. this is an added thing being looked at. again this is the second biggest hurricane it's in same region in less than two weeks. this area has been hard hit, carl. >> jesse, appreciate that. je jesse kirsch definitely looking at officials speaking in a sterner tone. goldman tries to put impact on disney. >> i thought that was important. disney is actually experiencing good business away from this. i have to be conscious of the fact, 150 to 200 million they're losing in sales. you can come back from that, disney is good at the box
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office, too. my worry here there's going to be kind of an existential thing, david. florida, there was a piece in the journal that florida is no longer the best. >> it's so built. it's underinsured right? >> underinsured in some way. we talked about this yesterday. and of course, the migration into the state. the second most populated state in the country, correct, after texas, i believe? is that right? >> california -- >> i'm sorry. california, texas, florida, right, third. sorry, forgot about -- is california really a part of that? >> yeah. zbler and >> and there is a lot of question as to whether given the increasing homeowners insurance, governor desantis has said it's not solvent, really, given the demand on the state plan. so it does become a key question, for the state, as they continue to take the brunt of
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hurricanes. >> but they can -- >> in different parts of the state. this is the west, not the east. >> but you're saying they just won't write for you. >> they won't write for you. >> in tampa, if you read the commentary about the storm, it sounds like a bomb. >> yeah, the commentary is pretty scary. >> yeah, it is really scary. i think the idea if you're insured it's worth the risk. maybe it's just not worth the risk at all. >> it looks like it's going to be top five in terms of gulf storms. and that number on disney, you mentioned 150 to 200 for fiscal q1 parks, would be worse than irma, 2016. >> you have to look at disney, like pepsico, down in a hurricane, got to look at disney and say what happens after. the stock's come down a great deal. espn numbers are okay. box office is better. it's absolutely true that theme parks won't be so strong.
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i think what happens will be asteriskic. and disney destinations will not be stopped by this. people will still go. >> and, obviously, orlando is not right in the path of the storm. >> right. >> but it will stop travel. >> yeah, it could be so dystopian. d dystopian -- >> we'll see, we hope for the best. that it can potentially weaken. >> there's not enough -- >> of what? >> to any of these storms because these people have never had a storm like this. >> well, north carolina is still in the midst of it. >> asheville. >> i mean -- >> horrible. >> i was yesterday, why are people focused on us? because we're focused. >> we're trying. when we come back, nvidia chasing microsoft, for the title
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with a qualifying trade-in. don't wait! call, click or visit an xfinity store today. premarket, extending yesterday's gains. the chip giant hitting a six-week high now overtaking microsoft to welcome the world's second largest company above apple. the headlines of mexico, basically a superplant, jim. >> isn't this incredible? >> they would make servers there using nvidia, blackwell chips. >> you've got fox chair, young lu saying there's crazy demand. last week, it was insane demand, now it's crazy demand. what's next? >> i spoke to brad lightcap, the
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coo yesterday. >> i loved that interview. >> there were a number of interesting takeaways. but, of course, as they move the model, 4.0, where you can ask questions and the compute that has to be behind that. well it comes to one conclusion. take a listen. we don't have it ready -- sorry. >> well, what if -- >> now, it is ready. take a listen. >> for the first time, you've got models now can use commute when you actually ask them a question. the more they can think, the more they can use compute, the better the answer gets. much like a human, the more time you think about something better the output is going to be. we believe that paradigm is completely different. completely different implications for our infrastructure. completely different
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implications for how we scale compute. >> give me more. what does that mean for compute? tell our viewers, does it mean you need more or less? >> we think we're going to end up needing a lot more. >> there it is, a lot more. we need a bigger boat. >> no, this is a really important interview. >> yeah. >> what they're saying, the blackwell, the problem in the last quarter was not demand. a lot of people saying listen, that was a cover. the chips are very hard to make. i thought your analysis and what happened in guadalajara, it's more than just orders from amazon and meta and tesla. >> without a doubt. >> and obviously, microsoft is part of this as well, you guys have seen this oppenheimer downgrade this morning. >> oh, please. >> i know. they talk about openai losses. openai reportedly reporting loss of half billion. microsoft saying they reiterated the street will overestimating
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a.i. revenues, enterprising infrastructure remains a bottleneck. you can see more from that. i want to make a point on this, however. because i do have one of my sources who owns the stock who says they i think opco is mismodeling this as they're reporting $2 billion in openai cost, but not revenue. they have the first quarter, azure 30.5% versus the company guide of 33%. that's a 1.5 miss. they're adding back that 3% of azure growth, a full year. and that gets you back to a number more or less in line with consensus. again, at least there's some criticism saying they're including the cost but not the revenue. remember, everything flows en augh azure. opaind all of that.
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going to microsoft. >> okay. great. cramer's "mad dash" and the opening bell, after this break.
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in the last 24 hours. we'll get to that, along with news on honeywell. roblox and a bunch of other movers. by the way, catch us anytime, anywhere, listen to "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast.
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let's get to it "mad dash" before opening bell, amd on the docket. >> yeah. we've got a very big october 10th. san francisco media advancing a.i., that is thursday, okay. that is going to be released as an event. i think almost as important, david, go back ten years to when the stock wasn't great. and you will see october 8th is when they took over amd. >> so she's there ten years. >> not bad. >> so she's there ten years? >> ten years. >> i remember the early meetings with her. she took me out and said, listen, you're on the wrong side of the train with the intel. get off the intel train and get
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on micro horse. i switched and i switched hard, david. and, man, look at that. >> no regrets there. >> no, some ceos are so good. and she is. >> let's get to opening bell here in cnbc at the big board. [ bell ] international flavors celebrating its 50th anniversary at the nasdaq capital. celebrating the 1 billion of the free cash flow etfs. >> the comeback, a deal that didn't work out. but really started to -- let's put it this way, it was one of the great blue chips of our time. i think for it to make a comeback, it's going to take a while. yesterday, david said, nike's turn, this will take on nike. david, i can't tell you -- these
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things are hard to turn. >> you're talking about nike? >> nike. >> no, there's a lack of patience, certainly, on the part of many investors. we talked about or the average mutual fund. how much they've declined through the many years. >> yes. >> and when you're talking about a multiyear turnaround. shareholder basis is still going throb to be there for you when you get to the other side. >> so true. look at what honeywell is doing. they wanted to reshuffle its portfolio, and they did a very good -- a $10 billion business -- getting rid of? i don't know. >> i put something together on it -- >> i did, too. >> oh, good. to actually reproduce something for our audience because the stock subpis up 3%. we wanted to share some highlights. but to your point, it's an big
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percentage of the company, 10% ebitda. they have changed it overall. >> yes, they have. they look to get it bun end of 2025, maybe early 2026. the sense of revenues, 3.7, to 3.8 billion, you're talking 1 million in ebitda. the company, what do they do? take a look at the next full screen. there you go, it's economicals, and pure play with leading positions in floor ooens, electronic materials and industrial grade fibers. >> it's the advance chemicals including some that help save the environment. david, what i like, the new company, automation, future, energy transition, this is a club name, for my travel trust. i think it makes a lot of sense
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and they can do more splits if they want to. they don't necessarily need automation, because it's very tough business. >> the stock is not great. >> no it's not great. >> it's not acting very well on this very big spin. which is really interesting. at point it was up 2.09. i don't think people know it has say momentum. again, i don't like the automation business. but the idea, pepsi's now up, you can believe it -- >> don't get distracted. >> i'm sorry. i'm sorry. absolutely right. i got to think more literal. when we look at honeywell. listen, it's a more rationalized portfolio, the fact that people are not -- >> embracing this? that is not a great sign? >> no, but it's also wrong. >> yeah. >> they had given some expectation, perhaps, that they would, you know, be disappointed if they didn't announce material
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divestitures by year end of this year. so here it is. your point's well taken, jim. and again, it has been trading to a discount to its industrial peers. you see the stocks up 20%. >> but they're lagging. >> yeah. >> i just think this is one of those situations where when you think it through, the man says he's going to do a big one. he does it. man of his word. stock doesn't go up. that is a recipe for sttomorrow. analysts say, listen, this honeywell is a buy. if you know -- no history of the company. it's a very big basic part of the old honeywell. you know, carl, i've got to tell you, people are too cynical. >> industrial dmroconglomerates jim, in the rear mirror.
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>> industrial automation, i don't want that business. it doesn't fit. i want a company like carrier, or train. solutions, solutions for the next generation. >> they've also done a lot of deals right? access solutions, natural gas business. they've done a number of deals. >> look for natural gas -- a lot of these things are part of this energy transition. >> yeah. >> that is a great business. i think if he came on our show, he would say this is a really good investment. >> probably should have. has he been on with you? >> yes. he said he was going to do this. this is a test of his word. and he did something that i really want. talking about bringing the quantum business public. >> yep. >> look, the stock is underreported. how do you not underperform jim
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uncleby. >> cowboy fan. >> i'll give you credit, you took 35 minutes before you got to the nfl, that's a new record. well done. >> especially after the chiefs last night. wow. that kelce lateral. >> oh, my. you got humpback and kareem and lamar. >> i did watch some of that. >> your night is tonight. >> tonight is the night. finish them off, boom-boom, or two-three. >> jim mentioned aerospace. airline is leading. meeting with mediators. >> that cash flow issue, got to get money. delta about to report. i think there's a couple positive notes saying delta is going to have a good quarter. eight times earnings, report is
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on thursday. thursday is shaping up to be a very big day. a lot of news. >> in between robotaxi and di. >> i think if musk comes through with a giant -- look, we're going to blitz the world, i think we're all going to sit back and say, you know what, he's going to do it again. at 240, i'll take that ticket any day. >> what's remarkable how it is an important week for the company. and yet, he has muddied it with his appearance in butler. and this video yesterday which he once again jokes about assassinating harris and biden. >> yeah, suboptimal. >> take a listen. >> i made a joke which i realize -- i believe, nobody is even bothering to try to keel
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kamala, it's pointless. >> what do you achieve? >> exactly. there's no point in killing -- >> deep and true, though. >> nobody has tried to kill joe biden. it's pointless. >> nbc had some polling data the last couple of weeks where his approval rating among democrats is now 6%. >> yeah. >> do they buy cars, democrats? i guess not. >> yeah, they famously buy. michael jordan -- >> that's what i was thinking -- >> michael jordan famously said republicans buy sneakers, too. that's why he's remained apolitical. that has not been the case with mr. musk. >> i'm stunned by that. that's the taboo. that's the great thataboo. i don't buy taboo. >> he's told his investor base it's not about selling cars anymore, if you believe in his company. it's about robotaxi.
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and it is about a.i., potentially and what that's doing. and it's robotics which is going to be based in a certain center in a.i. x in a.i. already. doing things in tennessee. i think they've got that data center up and running there. again, it's the two sides of musk. it's that side which you shake your head and wonder why. then it's the other side that has the incredible ability to get things done as a businessman. >> then cpi, this model period of 48 hours, nothing of elon musk -- will he ever be lost in the shuffle? >> no. >> i think it's real. >> wait, you think what is real? >> i think autonomous is real. i think he has the goods that he can do. >> you think waymo is real, too? >> look, you don't want a human once you've driven autonomous.
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>> i tend to agree with you. >> we do have uber with this event in london, where they now have a thing called uber green. >> did you see the -- >> reb. gt-powered a.i. chatbot. this is happeneing. >> this is happening. and we don't cover it enough because we don't think it's going to happen. >> and gm's investor, jim, with barra on later today. >> you've got a five multiple, what is she going to say, four multiple? >> the socktock is up. what if anything, their ambitions remain in china where they were once, obviously, generating a lot of profitability. not so much anymore, given the rise of chinese-made evs in that country. that has taken their market share down substantially in china from really not that many
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years ago from china. >> she's done what is amazing. she's done what i was pushing -- >> when your stock is trading at five times why not just keep buying it back, right? >> that's what she says, if you don't want to buy it, i'll buy it. >> right. >> she's really good at that, making money on cars, and you're getting a good deal on stock. that stock is good stock, especially with rate cuts. >> jim, do you want to come to the hindenburg piece shorting roblox. you know hindenburg pretty well. we're talking they reported losses every quarter since becoming a public company. insiders have told 1.7 billion in stocks since the company's direct listing in 2021. and their main thing, their money paragraph, our research indicates roblox is wlying to investors to the number of people, quotations marks around
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that, on its platform. she say they're inflating the platform by 42%, not to mention engagement. >> let's start by saying we have nod heard from ba zszucki. >> no, david baszucki. >> i don't know if i should repeat this stuff. >> but i feel like hindenburg -- the work is high quality. >> you think it's high quality? >> it is high quality. okay, here. they're talking about the accounts, carl. numerous criminal indictments from 2019 to 2024, alleged sexual predators groomed children in game ages 8 to 14. why do i point that out first? that is always the safe place. every time i've dealt with dave, i thought pretty straightforward. this is a place where you can let your kids, let's just say, learn. but the thing -- okay, i'm going
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to say one just because it's okay. >> "squawk" listed a bunch. >> they did? did they do the jeffrey epstein? >> yeah, and the diddy. >> i think i'm reporting on stuff that is so -- what trump, what musk is saying about vice president harris. but this is bad. i mean, the basis ending inflated and inflated in dangerous ways. that's the best way to put it. this is so much the opposite of what dave has said to me over and over and over again. that it would be, if true, a major scandal. major candal. because this is the safety place that you can work with your kids, give it to them -- david, i know your kids are probably too old for -- >> yes, they are. >> roblox is like when you -- during the pandemic -- >> yes, i know. >> roblox is what you did. >> you sent your kids to do that and you gave yourself a few minutes to grab a drink and just try to relax. yeah.
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>> right. but jeffrey epstein supporter -- i don't know, carl, when i see this stuff, i say, i know hindenburg does quality morning. if you wanted to take down an organization, you would do what they did. roblox isn't down enough. what hindenburg has said, it's true, stocks got to be down. >> yeah. >> surprised he's not called. he's a straightforward guy. he's been on a lot. >> yeah. >> and this is the exact opposite of what i've come to know roblox. >> tech getting a bid, and microsoft, i mentioned down as well. some people questioned the methodology there in terms of how they got to the numbers. but microsoft is up, amazon recovering a bit from that downgrade yesterday from wells fargo. and shares up saying they would. >> thank you. >> of course, nvidia, as well as
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tesla. >> david, this is the chinese money coming back. china potluck. >> coming back over here? >> exactly. this is the money determining a lot of prices, nvidia being r-- >> it doesn't take much, incrementally because you've got that running the markets. >> you're so good. >> thank you. >> you're good. you're just good. >> you got to give one to carl then. >> he's good, too. >> i don't want to be facetious, with all of the funds, out of crypto which is crazy, into china. and then you're watching mega cap tech come down and china reversal. nvidia percolate. amazon, pretty specific, has come back up. and then apple, well, that's chinese stimulus. then you end up with this
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plethora of things that doesn't impact yesterday, you're a dope. >> we've got firms trying to defend humana. >> it's working. >> after that blowup last week when they lost all the stars from cms. >> when you get to be that age, david, you live by the stars. it's like when you're little, your parents would go to aaa and get two stars. >> you're getting to the point where you got to start taking social security. did you defer or take it? >> it's a better deal to defer. >> come february, you're all in. drinks on you. >> you make me so angry. >> listen, i'm just stating the obvious. >> why don't you state the obvious somewhere else. >> time is going by. >> okay, listen. my friend larry williams. i'm done. guys i will see you, all right? i'm going to go pick grapes in
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italy. >> jim say guy that wants to spend more time in the office, too. >> yeah, r.i.p., i wish i spent more time in the office. and i mean it. i'll be here long after you're enshrined in the world center in queens. >> someone said that to me, but outlived it. >> at what age -- >> early 90s. >> i'll take that every day of the week. >> now we have morbid, david epstein island, roblox. baszucki, bazooka. >> i've got the social security thing -- >> i've got to start -- >> when do you start getting the distribution? >> 70. >> stop it. >> down 7, downgrade. >> dow's down 75. s&p is up about 21. watch bonds. busy day today. we've got international trade.
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three-year note option at 1. a lot of fed speak, including boston college, jefferson tonight. stay with us. when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans
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roblox responded to that hindenburg report. they say in park, we totally reject the claims aid in the report. the financial claims by hindenburg are misleading and the authors are admittedly short-sellers. they say firmly believe roblox is a safe and secure platform and in the financial metrics, we report. we will keep and i on the shess thar ae dow is down 53 and stock trading with jim prame is next.
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time for jim to stop treating. >> top 10 the comes out for anyone who wants to sign up. i had one part which is bgi g down. then they came on and gave a presentation about the last quarter that said buy now, pay later is incredible. he's gotten incredibly low, falls. i think he is the real deal and i think the firm can go higher. i like the upgrade.
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by the way, paypal is doing incredibly well. the bottom by our partner when he had -- fantastic. >> these are both buy now, pay later. it's the way a lot of people, think it's a cultural thing. because, we had credit cards and people to buy now, pay later and if you do it with max, his artificial intelligence that tells who will pay back. spirit target, 68. >> i think it's a really good stock. i missed it. i think there is more. >> i don't know if you saw the journal piece about legacy credit card keeping the rates high to make up for the caps on late fees. even as rates decline. >> capital one does work. he has done an incredible job. a look at american's downgraded and i've got to tell you, it will be like pepsico.
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watch what pepsico did. that's the analog of what happens when you have a stock that goes down every day and every quarter. >> and shares her up. >> everyone is freaking out this morning. you know? the stock is been down from 183. it has a 3 1/4% yield. that could be the theme. >> how about tonight? >> i have jenna rack. just because i can afford to keep throwing that away. >> when the power goes out. >> this man, what he has been telling, and you have to understand, it's interest rates have to go down because it's expensive. rates going this way and i don't have to tell you which was going south. >> we will monitor that as we watch milton. >> david, we will spend more
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time on roblox. the dichotomy is so great. one i am telling the truth and when i am not. it's a huge story. >> thank you. we will see you this evening. the dow hanging onto gains of p,. s& 5726.
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good tuesday morning. welcome to another hour of squawk on the street. we are live from the new york stock exchange. look at stocks right now. higher up 6/10 of a person on the s&p despite the selloff in china. nasdaq doing better, tach is leading up a percent on the nasdaq. big winners like palo alto. nvidia sire about 2.5%.
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netflix, apple in the rally today. as far as the s&p 500, almost every sector green. materials a little weaker. treasuries, it's been a theme of higher yields after the jobs report came in better last week. 10 year yield above 4%. last seen in august. 30 minutes into the trading session and here are movers. shares of oblox under pressure. and hamburg research disclosing a short position in the stock sing the video game company has been lying to investors and regulators about the number of users on his platform. more on that story straight- ahead. firm shares are rallying. buy now, pay later company got an upgrade of i-68 dollar price target and china related stocks are dropping pretty sharply after the countries day planner failed to announce any new big economic stimulus plans. casino operators like mgm which
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have resorts in macau falling. the ceo of mgm will join us next our. i mentioned nvidia. keeping an eye on this one. shares are pushing to six week eyes as the chip giant overtakes microsoft again and market cap to become the second biggest company. of course, behind apple. today, guys, not a lot of economic data but there's a lot of that speech should go through. all the fed members are justifying their move a 50 basis point cuts and trying to signal what may come next. i pay attention to john williams, new york fed. headlines from john williams. the current state of monetary policy is well-positioned to both hopefully keep maintaining the strength that we have in the economy and the labor market, but also continuing to see that inflation goes back to 2%. he feels good about policy. he said i expect it will be appropriate again to bring
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rates down overtime. if you look at the fed economic projections, they capture the totality of the views, the t reasonable representation of base case. the latest thinking is the fed will do two more 25 basis point cuts before the end of the year and it is a change after the judge report came in better. before that, david, the market was expecting three. maybe another 50 and there? does not look like that will happen with better jobs and wages. >> already reflected in the movements in the bond market. >> a pretty quick rise to 4%. that's the reflection there. st. louis fed president speaking out, given that the economy is that cost of easing too much too soon is greater than the cost of easing too little too late. there is one view. in the pursuit of price stability and remains appropriate but i will not prejudge the sizing of future adjustments to policy. i wonder if the word patients makes a comeback, if they need
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to wait and see before making the next move. bring economics, one of the commentators, economists the people follow has been not critical but questioning the fee basis point cut move. since it has happened, jobs numbers have been good. inflation numbers have been a little firm. 1st inning a little the fed's wisdom and only focusing on the labor part of the dual mandate. >> interesting. there's something for everybody. diamond is on the take. the fed was right to take the foot off the gas with 50. i'm looking at a report, it's entitled cutters remorse and what would it take for the fed to pause in november? >> that is what i mean. >> they said doubt it will be deterred from 25. >> they made a ton of progress in inflation. we expected to show things are
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looking good on the road back to 2%. we did get small business optimism. the chart still shows things have perked up a little lately but mostly not too optimistic on the small-business front. here's factoids i pulled out of it. on your point, carl. 23% of small business see inflation as a single most important problem in their operation. that is the highest problem for them. 23% plan to raise compensation in the next three months. they feeds into higher wages. 15% plan to increase hiring. that was a tick up from the month before. they are planning to hire a little more and give more wages. and inflation is still a problem. just something for the fed to look at as a have to worry about both sides of the mandate and focus more labor. >> 23% plan to raise compensation but does it mean 77% plan to not? >> it was a tick up from last
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month. you watch the trends and not the overall numbers necessarily and those were a little higher. it's anecdotal and survey data. it's politically tinged. however, something to watch as the fed focuses on labor. the final point, we talk about the boom in the chinese stock market. give back today. a bit of a hangover after -- we wandered the missing piece of stimulus is really going to come. the key economic development agency of china came out with a highly anticipated conference or statement outside of the holiday week. it didn't get much more in the form of stimulus. 200 billion which is $20 billion when the market is hoping for a $3 trillion. doesn't quite cut it. spirit that's the worst since 2008. that was a big seller. the s&p is coming up closing
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lows in the bull market approaching its second birthday. where do we go from here? head of u.s. strategy has a target of 5600. good to see you. you haven't been moved to increase your target like some others? >> no. >> why not? >> let's see what happens. if you see what's happening, numbers have been cut sharply going end. what is anchoring the market is big tech even though they are running themselves. then seasonality. october is the weakest month. you don't want to get ahead of that. that said, we are optimistic. i think we have -- of 6100. we have a downside. we think of site is relatively more likely than downside. i don't see a point in -- the market and valuations are quite
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full across the board. >> within a percent of all-time highs in the major indices. the only make seven our all- time highs is meta. you don't think the market has broadened out? >> the market in some ways has broadened. instead of only 25% company eating the s&p and now it's 40% which is decent. the broadening in earnings is taking place but incremental. the reality of the anchor for the markets remains big tech which is a conglomeration of six stocks. that earnings growth despite moderating is going to be more than four times of the s&p. that is where we shake out. >> i won't ask whether 50 was a mistake but what you expect 50 again? >> no. we do not expect 50. i won't say if it's right or
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wrong because you can do monday morning quarterbacking. clearly they were focused on the labor market and wanted to be preemptive and they have wiggle room. inflation is coming down so they have flexibility. that said, we don't think it's likely they go ahead with 50 more. it will be 25. >> bond yields a headwind if we stay higher for longer? >> we have done work on that. bond yield become a headwind what's a comes closer to the 5% level. you could have a situation where there is a positive correlation between equities and rates because look at what's happening growth rate now. the economy is strong and inflation is decent. the job market is strong and wages are going up. things are okay. the near term expect, because move too fast too soon. >> is not everywhere. it has been confusing to talk
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about the economic signals. a lot of the data points are coming in good. manufacturing around the globe was pretty weak. we have not seen expansion there in several months. we will have more and pepsi later but not painting a strong picture of the u.s. consumer for the global consumer. especially at the low income level. it's sort of confusing. >> it's a mixed bag. you are right about manufacturing. the u.s. -- only a third manufacturing. services site is pretty strong. they are extremely robust. if you look at employee, the same story. weak on manufacturing a strong on services. it's a mixed bag. those companies which have more of a brand, able to hang in there. a majority of them are struggling. we created a basket of stocks which we felt was more of a
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risk and that's lagging the market quite substantially the last three months. it's a mixed bag on the consumer side. >> i am sure viewers can guess what is in their. thank you. we are keeping a close eye on florida and the monster hurricane that seems set to slam that state. nearly two weeks after hurricane helene battered that part of the country and of course north of there as well. chase came joins us live from orlando and has the atest on preparations taking place there. >> reporter: this is one of the largest evacuations in many years. they expect within 7 million people to leave the gulf coast of florida to get out of the way of hurricane milton. i am in front of i-4 and orlando, the main room between tampa bay and orlando. you can see traffic oving pretty well. part of that is because florida officials open the shoulders of the interstate. they suspended all tolls to get
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more people out of the area as quickly as possible. time is running out. the impacts of hurricane milton will start to be felt tomorrow in florida. in orlando, the last couple of days, folks have been filling up sandbags. we were at a filling station and people were waiting in line in their cars for more than four hours just to get to the sandbag station. orlando is a place prone to flooding. it flooded during hurricane ian and local officials in orlando are expecting more the same with hurricane milton. the rainfall forecast this area could get 10 inches or a foot of rain in certain locations. even folks in orlando are taking this seriously but it's a place a lot of folks in florida come to evacuate. they are trying to get away from the coast but not so far away that they cannot get back home after hurricane milton passes. the last thing i want to mention is the florida governor said they have florida highway patrol officers escorting fuel trucks to get them to gas stations along the evacuation
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route because there's a number of gas stations from tampa bay up delay clinic closer here in orlando which are running out of fuel. they are using patrol officers to get the gas trucks to the gas stations as quickly as possible. >> chase, thank you. in orlando. let's give a road map for the rest of the hour. roblox shares are in the crosshairs. short-sellers at hindenburg out with a new report and it has affected those stock to the downside. we will see with the criticism is. pepsi missing sales estimates and cutting the revenue forecast. the stock is holding steady. more than a dozen state attorneys general announcing a massive lawsuit against tiktok. we will talk to one of the ag's about the suit as the squawk continues after this.
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shares that roblox moving lower, they were done as much as 10 earlier is hindenburg research announces a short in the company. steve joins us with some of the fallout and what the case is here. >> hindenburg the shortselling firm has a number of allegations against roblox and the two themes, hindenburg says, roblox has been lying about the number of people on the platform and failing to protect users against sexual predator's
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among other disturbing content violations. roblox telling me moments ago they reject the claims and highlights accompaniment ski growth in bookings and says roblox is a safe and secure platform. however, the statement does not address some of hindenburg's claims that roblox has been using about lying about user can. hindenburg said roblox misrepresented the number on their platform because it doesn't factor people with multiple accounts. saying roblox has what hindenburg" make two sets of books, number the number of people and another with a number of accounts. also saying many accounts appear to be bots and on the safety side, not a lot of new criticism. much of this roblox has been accused of before such as spending less on trust and safety, making it easy for adults to create accounts. allowing sexual explicit experiences across a platform among many other unsavory things.
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a lot of details in the report they are claiming. roblox said in july it uses artificial intelligence and human moderators among other tools to keep the platform safe. this will be quite a back-and- forth. i note the stuff on start dish trust and safety has been a huge criticism of roblox. it's the user thing that seems to be the more interesting thing. >> the inflated user numbers. bring us back. who has been lodging the criticism in terms of how it endangers potentially children. warehouse up and coming from previously? >> the typical people. rights groups. the same people we hear talking about trough and safety across instagram and other social media. the hindenberg report, a level deeper than i've seen. the broad claims. so many stories of people being arrested for going after kids on that roblox form and things
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like that. this goes into pretty deep detail. they said they were able to make accounts with users names like jeffrey epstein for example is a username and going in and talk to kids. they also list a number of experiences and games within roadblocks that are sexually explicit or unsavory. things you would not want your children playing. roblox has been aware of this for a long time and they have been age 18 experiences. if you're under 18 you can't use -- more adult themed things but hindenburg says are not doing enough. >> i think it is banned in turkey for child safety concerns. >> it might be. i read that this morning. what about their hits? best known for her exposing the issues. how successful has it been? >> the niccolo one was
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interesting because it was a fake demonstration of the car. i'm not sure how many hits and misses, i don't have that in front of me. this idea, i want to go back to the users because that's the most important thing in my opinion. the idea that two sets of books. one with the number of humans they think are using the platform which, hindenberg said roblox says they cannot decouple accounts from people but hindenberg said they can do there. that seems to be the new set of data they have. they interviewed moderators and people at the company, they say , they show this is going on and i will note the statement does not address the part about the users. spinouts steve, thanks. what a story and we will watch it with your help. pepsi kicks off q3 earnings. stock is bouncing back from a slows. we have the highlights of the
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quarter. check out some of the biggest gains in the -- led by palo alto and synopsis. information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed to help you save money and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare supplement plan you select, you could have no deductibles or copayments for doctor visits, hospital stays, emergency
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pepsico was a mover, higher despite cutting it revenue outlook and weaker demand. they beat profit the second straight quarter of sales misses. stemming from a drop in drink demand. business disruptions in the international markets. i spoke with the ceo and here's what he told me. challenging consumer environment but, he says, we saw it coming so we stepped up multiyear productivity savings. what does it mean? they have digitized the warehouses and the process and cut out a lot of cause by doing that. he said there's more to go. perhaps that's why the stocks are higher. there is an erring things power story which is good despite a weaker revenue story. top line story because of consumers. what did he say about the u.s. consumer? he said it's a very challenging environment for the u.s.
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consumer. especially households that make less than $100,000 or $70,000. struggling to get through to the end of the month. we see that, pepsi, according to him. he said it impacts how much they are paying. it impacts where they are buying. going to mark lowe warehouse stores instead of convenience stores. he sought convenience or traffic drop off during the summer. he said consumers a going back to buying essential son foodend quote make we are discretionary. you don't need snacks. you don't necessarily need that. they are seeing that on the food and beverage part of the portfolio. as far as internationally, he says international is a huge opportunity. some positives in india, brazil and parts of eastern europe. china not so much. we expected to get worse before it is better. he does not expected to come back anytime soon and it jibes with the theme of today's market which is china is not
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stimulating the consumer which is how pepsi would file rebounded china. as far as the read on the consumers, this made me question the strong data we are seeing on jobs and wages. we talked about, i talked about it and he said that's why we expect the consumer to turn. he thinks after the election some uncertainty will be lifted and things should come back. >> does it make sense? after the election, uncertainty as to whether i will buy soda? >> if you feel good about your economic prospects. he blame the media and said there's so much uncertainty. we hear about inflation and the wars and this and that. that has an impact on consumer confidence. >> that will go away after the election? >> better wages and better employment should manifest at a time where people feel a little better, i think. the question is on how they're feeling and what they are seeing. >> i find that explanation
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lacking. >> he has a lot of experience and he tracks what they are doing. apparently, there is a confidence problem out there right now. >> we tried to counter with jim looking at the morgan stanley chart and survey that argues consumers are trading down less, especially in grocery. we will see. >> maybe because prices are normalizing. then you look at a category like snakes and people are cutting back, then there's pressure. >> he says it's not gop one coital. >> we didn't hear about that. the hispanic section is booming. chips that are gluten-free. what to cause permissible foods and hispanics, two trends that are working in this environment. >> i like chips and salsa. >> every month not just
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hispanic heritage month. >> all the time. it is my go to snack. it's delicious. >> we make chips and cheese which is really not joe's. the china trade slowing down. 9% decline overnight. impacted other china names. we will look in a minute.
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welcome back. and brian sullivan with cnbc a day. hezbollah open the door to negotiate a cease-fire with israel. lebanon came after they illuminate the senior hezbollah official who was veteran leader . he was killed in an airstrike last month. the largest regulated water utility and america revealed it was a victim of a cyber attack. the new jersey-based water 14 million customers says they noticed the unauthorized activity is thursday and it
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prompted a pause in building. the utility does not think operations were impacted. is seems this may be unlucky. the cost of mega millions lottery ticket is set to double next year. officials a beginning in april, the cost of a mega millions ticket will pop to five bucks up from the current two dollars. officials believe gamblers will be okay with it because it could lead to larger payouts and improved odds. overall inflation is coming down, it appears that lottery inflation is not. if you win that powerball, david, you could buy a lot of chips and cheese for your household. >> sarah is the chips and cheese. >> i have a problem with the five dollar lottery ticket. you could buy other stuff with that five dollars. >> yes, you could. i do not think it will decrease
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sales. we will find out. >> thank you. keep us up to date on your diet as well. >> will do. pause for lafon now move on. chinese stock really is cooling. we told you that at the top of the upper. investors were disappointed after chinese officials stopped short of, on large stimulus measures. markets reopening after a weeklong break. still seeing gains in the month after many wall street firms raised various targets. joining us, capitol managing partner ben. we rely on you to bring the latest from the country itself. pars through this if you can for viewers. what stimulus measures have occurred or been announced you believe are significant and will be followed through on to potentially a positive impact on the chinese consumer? >> it's a great question. i think it's not a direct line
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to be drawn between the actual stimuli and the impact on the consumer. the key was to cause everyone to feel stable, cause everyone to feel there was a floor under the market to change everyone's perceptions around the way the chinese government but to with the economy from big laissez- faire and it organically grow out of the roads to when they would aggressively intervene with interest rate drops, capitol injections, cash handouts. reserve ratio requirement, changes. all of that was to change the flavor of the market and to change the feeling on the streets of beijing and hong kong and to that end it achieves that. people are walking with a different pace in their step today while i will say it will take time for the changes to ripple through and for us to see them on consumption numbers. >> you are a believer they done enough to stimulate the
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consumer? >> i think the engine has been jumpstarted. the numbers coming out where people went in with a little more confidence look pretty good. tourist trips up 6% and spending was 6.3%. we saw spurts of buying in the real estate market. we saw huge rush to the public markets. china has this deficit, 70% of u.s. wealth in public markets and other forms of financial products and only 30% real steak but it's the opposite in china. there's room for the capitol flow. we are seeing that confidence slightly restored beyond what you're seeing today in the downward of the market. >> you mentioned real estate and, to the problem to the extent there is one there, centers on the. has enough been done? we hear enormous numbers in terms of losses. confidence has been lost when it comes to the property sector and the need for a true reset, but enormous write-downs.
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is that a problem that has been dealt with? >> i wouldn't say it's near being done. something that will take decades if forever to be worked out of the system and the since the chinese model of great alliance on real estate and infrastructure development and the driving growth at the provincial level nationally cannot continue. that will take decades to be worked out of the system. what i can say is we are not at risk of a lehman moment. mpos are nowhere near the u.s. peoples loans are tied to them personally so not walking away from mortgages. the ratios between the ltv's are very different than the u.s. during the 2008 bubble. overall, i don't think it's as crushing a threat to the economy but one that looms over and for global investors forces chinese investors to bunker
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down because they are afraid equity values will continue to fall. >> i count is bearish points. what is the savings rate in china? isn't a dramatically high? doesn't take stimulus to unleash that? the trade tinges impact china. we talk about the u.s. and what could happen after the u.s. but look at what's happening in europe with tariffs on the chinese ev's and potential retaliatory tariffs. brandy is a for discussion. >> let's take it one by one. the savings issue is monumental. today, the chinese have somewhere on the order of $21 trillion of household savings in their deposits relative to only 900 billion in the united states. that's also an opportunity. if we can find the stability and people are seeing the public portfolios going up and they are not losing money on their homes, they can bring that money back into the market.
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that would cause bullish china and in various the u.s. on that specific front if that confidence is restored. from a tariff perspective, this is nothing new. we expect tariffs will continue. a lot at the tariffs affecting chinese goods coming toward the u.s. have minimal impact. the u.s. does not absorb a lot of electric vehicles. europe is bigger by european automakers are pushing back. many have formed alliances with the chinese to co-build automobiles. it's something that will continue indefinitely but not one that will undermine these companies. buit sell cars for twice the price in europe than they do in china. that means they have a lot of room to absorb different forms of tariffs. >> we will talk more about tvs another day. i will stop right there but always appreciate it. thank you. speaking of china, live in tennessee ahead of gm investor
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day where china will be a key focus. >> it will be a focus because china, which was once they strengthen private driver for general motors, has become a drag and a question of what happens in the future. especially after losing 10 hunt -- $210 million in china. three topics will get a lot of attention. out is general motors plan to cut the losses and adjust its footprint in china? a restructuring. ev growth, we were at the battery plant in springhill as well as the gm spring hill plant but they are doing flexible manufacturing between ice models and ev models. we have peak profitability for general motors? there are more than a few out there who say yeah. i don't think it gets better than this even the headwinds heading into 2025. when you look at shares of general motors, they remain bullish about the prospects
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when it comes to ev's. specifically the fact they grew them by 60% in the third quarter relative to last year and there up sequentially. they continue to pickup market share in the ev business in the u.s. and they say they are scratching the service, especially like the equinox which is a lower-priced model. we will talk about this and so much more. an exclusive interview and people have comments a little later today. we send it back to you for now. >> we look forward to there. still to come, more than a dozen u.s. states are suing tiktok accusing them of harming and failing to protect children. we will speak with one of the attorneys general involved in this new lawsuit, next.
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welcome back to squawk on the street. more than a dozen state attorneys general led by near can california announcing a large-scale lawsuit against tiktok claiming risk to the harm of mental adults. the supra by the district of columbia claims that have operates and money transmission business known as tiktok coins. joining us is d.c. general. mr. attorney general thank you for joining us. parents have been worried about the safety of tiktok for a while. what is new in terms of your findings that you brought the
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suit at this moment? >> thank you for having me. for young people, the tiktok platform is like nicotine. it's a dangerous product that lowers young people and keeps their eyes glued to their screens for as long as possible and when young people are able to get off, it lures them back. that's in furtherance of profits. the platform is designed to keep eyeballs on screens to drive ad revenue and that something this lawsuit tries to tackle. we know the impact of young people is severe in terms of mental health, in terms of loss of sleep and a 10, rising levels of depression and anxiety. it's a dangerous public health risk for our children across the country and in the district of columbia. the lawsuit i filed in d.c. raises the fact that tiktok is engaged in unlicensed money transmission business.
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in real time, money is transmitted between people and tiktok coin function when toggled with tiktok live is lending itself to dangerous behavior, and regulated behavior that other money transmission companies like venmo or paypal have a requirement for safety and oversight that tiktok is evading. >> what is your goal of the lawsuit? >> we want tiktok's dangerous functions to end. we want to make sure young people are kept safer when using social media and there are reasonable constraints on the time and the ways in which young people are sucked into spending so much time on screen. we think the money transmission business is currently being operated as a legal and needs to come in compliance with the requirements of d.c. lawn consumer protection laws. generally speaking, we want the exploitation and the lack of candor to children and their parents and to regulators.
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tiktok is not been straight with the public and parents and with kids about how dangerous their product is and how dangerous it knows its product is, in the long-term impact of the addictive behaviors that it's algorithm creates. >> how do you differentiate tiktok from some of its main competitors such as instagram and snapchat? if so, how and why are they different? >> as you know, we and other agencies have brought lawsuits against other social media platforms including meta and instagram, and the business model of tiktok and instagram and meta is the same. to keep eyeballs on screens for as long as possible so that targeted advertising can be driven and ad revenues can be generated. tiktok has the basic business model of exploiting the addictive qualities for profit. as i said, tiktok has a little different model in the sense it's operating a money
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transmission business through its coin function. it adds another element of danger to the users of its platform that we want to put an end to. >> what about the measures the industry is taken to try to address the safety concerns, especially mental health concerns with teenagers, instagram recently making you have to give more proof of how old you are to use it. it's not a new issue for tiktok. the ceo testified before congress and tried to address it on their own. >> we know the platforms make public statements about their concerns and steps toward safety. we know there's safety features do not work. the age verification criteria for tiktok is not preventing people, kids younger than 15, from getting on their screens. when i talk to young people, middle school and high school across the district and what they tell me repeatedly as they wish they could spend less time on their screens.
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they feel like they cannot get off. they are addicted to it. the definition of addictive behavior. the state ag's, i in my office and my colleagues bipartisan across the country that we have to lean into this issue before the generation of young people in our country a further damage, potentially permanently, by these addictive social media platforms. >> a thing of said gets to what the original concerns were about tiktok and that's chinese ownership. do they have of view about whether a different ownership structure would make a difference? >> our focus is on the basic business model promoting profits over people. using an addictive model to generate larger and larger amounts of revenue. in my view, the business model will be problematic regardless of who might be the owner of the business. the federal government, doj, ftc and others may be fronting other issues concerning the
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ownership of the company. my lawsuit in the district of columbia my colleagues lawsuits around the country are state law consumer protection claims based on trying to protect the deceptive and unsafe behavior that is impacting our children. >> i am curious what the solution is? short this is the business model of these companies, they use the algorithms -- half of america uses tiktok. what's the remedy? >> so, we're not looking to ban social media. there are benefits to social media but there are reasonable restrictions and limits on the use of social media, on the addictive qualities of social media, infinite scroll, allowing people to spend hours upon hours of scrolling is something the platforms could put an end to, limiting the time when kids should be sleeping or in school, are reasonable constraints. there are a variety of ways these platforms, while not
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exploiting the mental health of our young people, could do so. i'm encouraging them to do so. but given the absence of a willingness thus far to really lean into this, we felt we had no choice but to move forward with these lawsuits. zoof well, we'll continue to follow it. of course, update everyone on tiktok's response as well. thank you for joining us fresh off that lawsuit, attorney general of washington. >> thank you very much. thank you. take a look at markets so far. moderate gains. dow's up about 20. s&p has been holding dwron a healthy gain of 40 or so. coming up on "money movers," we're live in las vegas for the gaming expo and an exclusive of mgm resorts. stock's had a nice run. under a little pressure today. that's coming up in the next hour. stay with us.
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cnbc is out with a new wrap it up update. steve liesman has the numbers for us. >> the strong jobs report data and series of economic surprises has forecasters boosting their growth outlook for this year and next. no longer predicting much weakness at all. you can see here compared to the
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september cnbc fed survey, gdp forecast in the cnbc wrap it up update for the next four quarters, about 0.4%. those weak quarters are pretty just a few tenths below potential. writing, the widely feared phantom recession is over. that is the one that never came. the 16 economists surveyed see gdp coming at 3.2% for the year, dips down to 1.9 in 2025 and back up at 2.1. they see two quarters of negative growth in q4 and q1 of '25. joe writes, we think one risk to the outlook and asset market is sustained economic growth well above the long-term 1.8% trend, which implies a much shallower pace of rate cuts over the next two years. we would not be surprised if the terminal rate is closer to 3.5% or above. pce inflation the feds refer to inflation indicator is forecast at 2% target this quarter but
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core inflation takes longer to come down a little more slowly. inflation and growth numbers should allow the fed to continue cutting, but how fast and how far depends on whether the upside growth numbers, as we've been getting, and declining inflation also. guys? >> yeah, we were having a debate earlier, steve, about what it would take for them to pause because now that the numbers are coming in so strong, you know, you always wonder, what next? >> i don't think pause is in the cards for a bit if you take powell at his word on this recalibration idea, sara. which is that the cuts that are sort of happening now are in order to get the funds rate closer to being in line with where the inflation numbers are. i'm imagining that's one of the arguments y'all made. >> for sure. that patience word from st. louis fed president's speech, the ecb has paused and others
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have paused as they started their easing campaign. maybe it's something to consider. clearly, that's not where the market is now. >> when you come out of the chute with a 50, people start to get excited. and i think right now where we're at is the market and the fed are pretty well aligned, at least for this year. and you can see when you look a little further down, the market's taken out about 50 or 60 basis points out of next year. >> steve, thank you. steve liesman. don't look now, but we have quite a rally going on. mega cap tech leading the way. one reason the nasdaq is up 1.2%. t re market coverage straight ahead. forward by building agile etfs designed to outperform the index. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
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good tuesday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live at the new york stock exchange. this hour the exclusive with the ceo of mgm live from las vegas as casinos post record revenues in this half of the year. the cteo on palantir with surging a.i. demand for defense. a pretty rare downgrade of microsoft today. why oppenheimer says the street has it wrong on earnings estimates. stocks right n a

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