>> jason? >> amgen. >> shannon? >> we talked about it earlier. there's offense in health care, particularly around pharma. >> joey? >> an industrial name reversing the down trend, copart breaking out. >> we have the s&p hitting a new record high. see you in a couple of hours. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much, scott. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. let's take a quick glance at all three major averages, which are higher today and sharply in some cases. they're extending yesterday's gains with the s&p hitting an all-time high today, up just about half a percent this hour. yields continue to climb for the nasdaq. the dow is up 0.8 of 1%. the ten-year is still above 4%, as the dallas fed president said this morning she backs a more gradual pace of rate cuts after

john williams said puts should come over time yesterday. we have got an action this hour. elsewhere, shares of alphabet are under pressure after the justice department said it's considering a google breakup, making recommendations that include limiting or outlight banning default agreements, like it has with apple's iphone. shares are down about 2% right now. it could prevent the company from cruising chrome and other products from giving them an advantage. but as we get more details, we are showing more pressure and are the biggest drag on the spy today. that's the market landscape. but we begin with milton barreling towards the west coast of florida. the hurricane's path is shifting a bit as it approaches the coast. the center of the storm is now protected to sit sarasota rather than tampa directly. with landfall expected between 2:00 and 6:00 a.m. and it could be as early as 11:00 p.m.

tonight. the tampa and orlando airports are closed. disney world, universal, other theme parks are shuttering as we speak. 23% of florida's gas stations are out of fuel right now according to gas buddy. 15 counties are under mandatory evacuation orders. joe biden saying it's a matter of life and death. 12 million people are also under a tornado watch with reports of twisters touching down near miami. we have got on the ground coverage in the southeast right now. phil lebeau is in atlanta at delta's operational center as they move planes out of the storm's path and navigate flight cancellations. home depot has sent 1400 truckloads of extra products. u-haul is offering 30 days of free storage at their 172 centers across the state. the ceo is with us. and we'll talk to the cfo of pebble brook hospitality. some of their properties received damage from helene last week, and they have five more in

milton's path. we appreciate you all standing by at this hour. phil, let's start with you, and what's taking place? >> this is the calm before the storm, kelly, literally, as they wait for milton so come ashore. they have moved crews, planes, and they believe they're prepared for what happens once the hurricane comes ashore in florida in terms of flight operations, et cetera. for the airports in florida, four major ones have been closed, and we'll just give you the four major ones. orlando, tampa, ft. myers, sarasota. the number of flights canceled, 771. we're not going to talk about all airlines, but southwest, because of its exposure, how many flights it has in the florida area. it has canceled 402 flights in preparation for milton. and here at delta, they have canceled 250 flights.

now it's a question of how and when can they get these flights and these crews back in place? that depends on what kind of damage the airports may suffer, how easy it is for crews to get back into those airports. lots to discuss about milton and preparations for milton, the impact of milton with q3 financials tomorrow morning when we talk with ed bastion, you don't want to miss what he has to say. not only about milton and the impact, but more importantly, where the market is right now in terms of air travel as we head into the fourth quarter. kelly, back to you. >> phil, there's been a lot of discussion how difficult it is to get out of florida ahead of the storm, via airplanes. the airports shut down a day or two ahead of time. i'm curious if you can shed any more light as to why and what they have to do to get the airport facilities themselves ready for any direct impact. the ticket window that was really offered for some of these last-minute flights out was closed -- they were sold out within 20 minutes' time. what are the airlines saying about that?

>> they started noticing people calling and rebooking as early as late last week. i think that's when most of the public started saying wait a second, this is not -- hard to call it hurricane one of the mill, but this was going to be a unique, super large, impactful hurricane. that's when they noticed people calling in and rebooking flights. perhaps maybe a little earlier than what they usually see when there is a hurricane warning and a certain airport is going to be impacted. in terms of the airports, they make that decision in conjunction with the faa in terms of saying look, this is when we believe it is safe to operate until. we know some of these airports have made the decision to close. and others, depending on where they are in the state, where they may be impacted, take jacksonville. it's starting to curb operations. does it have to close down? that depends on the hurricane and the track of the hurricane. that's a decision the airports make. they discuss it obviously with the airlines using that airport, and then reopening, that's

really a question of, a, can the facility get up and operate safety. and b, can you get staffing there snit's one thing to say yeah, we're back open and flights can come back this there, but what if you can't get tsa staff in there, gate agents, ramp workers. those are the things that need to be factored in. >> phil, i know we don't often get a look at the response center where you are standing. i don't know if there is anything else you can point us to happening behind you for this peek we get into how delta is trying to deal with this. >> this is like mission control. let's give them a sense of what it is. look, this is not just because of the hurricane. this is operating 24/7 all the time. this is what they do. they prepare for emergencies like this. way back in the corner, and we're able to get over there, they're obviously pretty busy, is where they have their meteorologists. so they have staff on site who are constantly tracking the storm, making decisions in terms of hey, this is the impact, this is what we might want to

consider. and they're constantly updating their models. yef, they have the big screen here with the satellites and flight paths of all of the aircraft this the area. so as i said, it is the calm before the storm. >> phil, thank you so much for bringing that to us. our phil lebeau. let's head now to home depot's disaster response center, also in atlanta. and kelly mayhall is the president who is spearheading relief efforts. kelly, ian hit this area just a couple of years ago. i don't know how much experience that is able to perform about what you're doing to prepare now. >> yeah, thanks for having me, kelly. our number one focus any time we go through an event is making sure we're there for our community before and after a storm. so storm after storm, we continue to get better and better at what we're doing. ian was a highly impacted storm. we're just now coming back through helene. so while the stores are trying to support the customers in the current need, we're still supporting the communities from

the helene catastrophes that happened just last week. >> how do you make the decision about what point to shut the stores down and send people home? home depot is one of the few places people can go to do make their storms more of a fortress against the storm, so helping people until the very last minute, what does that decision look like? >> absolutely. so first and foremost, what is most important to us is making sure we keep everyone safe. that includes our customers. i know sometimes customers they want -- they prepare last minute, so they have last-minute needs. we want to make sure we're getting people off the roads and out of the stores in the good times and we see the impacts of any storms. we can make sure we help every customer we can until the last minute. we also don't want to put people in the middle of the storm, as you guys have seen, this storm continues to shift. we thought it was going closer to tampa. now it's closer to port charlotte. so we have to be a little more

nimble with the data. >> so those people, they are doing what? they're telling you at what point those stores need to close down. how many are closed at the moment or still open? >> yeah. so right now, we have over 60 stores that are closed. and then we continue to make waves of closures based upon the data. what we have currently to make sure we're supporting the communities in need is upstairs right now, we have over 100 associates, we call it the command center. and there's rooms full of people from this building working to make sure we're making the right decisions. we're looking at what is the in the moment timing of the storms to make good decisions. where are we going to see storm surge? and also monitoring how do we get product to a store and get it to the right store? and just making really good decisions on this unit of great associates up in the building just a few floors above me. helene was here last week, so they've been there for about

three weeks making good decisions to support the community. >> how resupply stores and get things into this area once the storm passes to get the stores up and running and have the product that can help people rebuild? >> great question. we've gotten very nimble in terms of having distribution centers throughout the u.s. that are not always going to be in the strike zone. we prefill trucks with key product categories we know our communities are going to need post storm. so we make sure that happens and we're again, with the data we have upstairs, using where the impact zone is going to be, how quickly can we get our truck drivers into the stores. and you're also going to have associates impacted, so how do we have the right labor in our stores to help our customers and associates endure what they're going to go through? so we have our volunteer network, our orange army. associates from all over say the southeast will come in and help our associates work their shifts

to make sure we can put the product on the shelf and make sure our customers can get what they need. >> my last question would be at a time when the supply chain and price spikes have come under scrutiny the last few years, what do you do when there's a shortage? do you move pricing around at all? what should people expect in terms of availability and cost? >> yeah. no, kelly, we absolutely do not do that. we want to make sure our customers get the best value they can at all times. once we have in emergency situation, all of the prices are freeze, and our supply chain does an amazing job that we utilize all the assets to get the products to the right stores. >> thank you for bringing us this inside look at what's taking place and the amount of people that are dedicated to make this go as smoothly as possible. thank you for joining us this afternoon. >> kelly, thank you for having me. the last thing is look, we're going to have thousands of associates impacted through this storm, as well. they are tirelessly in our

stores making sure they're hel helping their communities. so thanks to everyone for all that you're doing for making a difference in people's lives. thank you for having us, kelly. appreciate it. >> kelly mayhall from home depot. now tostorage where u-haul is offering a month of free storage to all floridians as they brace for milton. the ceo joins us now with more on this effort. joe, have you done this before? welcome. >> yes, we've been doing this for a little over 25 years. what we do is we offer people last-minute free storage, so they can get their goods away from wherever the goods are in jeopardy, and we continue that promotion after the hurricane. so we're still doing that in hurricane milton. right now, i'm at about 54 additional rooms given out free to people in hurricane milton. that number will continue to grow as people adapt to their situation.

>> where do they store these goods? are they trying to load up a u-haul and take this off site or loading this up and keeping it on their own premises? >> bringing it to the u-haul location. most of our buildings are built to hurricane standards, which means they can take 1 175-mile-an-hour winds. so the idea is, if their own situation is not very predictable, they can get into a more predictable location or facility at no cost to them. >> was there a decent amount of takeup of this during ian? and what happened in terms of people continuing to use those facilities going forward? is it just a one-off thing? >> it's depends very much. as i said, for milton -- i mean, for helene, we have about 5400 people who took us up on the offer, and they'll stay for some

variety. many of them will take that 30 days to rethink their situation and get a solution, and they'll go back to some lresidential or business solution that was preexisting. some will stay on because their home or their business is destroyed and they don't have a place to go. >> joe, forgive me, are you in the middle of a board meeting right now? >> yes, you caught me right in the middle of a board meeting. it's kind of funny, because what is the response to the emergency? well, we could raise rates, we could close early, we could do a lot of different things. but we're staying open as long as we can, and we're giving things away at no charge because people just don't need to hear that they need another charge at this point in their lives. >> well, thank you for making the time. thank you all for your patience and we'll let you get back to it. >> thank you.

wells fargo is identifying some real estate investment trusts exposed to the weather milton is bringing. among those are these names. raymond marks manages all things insurance, as the cfo at pebble brook hotel trust and joins us right now. raymond, you're expected to be one of the companies hardest hit by this. how are you preparing? >> sure. fortunately, we just went through hurricane helene two weeks ago, so our teams are ready and we know the steps we need to take. so we have gone through, we added sandbags, we add tarping in areas where there's water intrusion and get the properties in a good, defensive position and we have to hope for the best. so our teams are on the ground, watching the goproperties, and after the hurricane hits, we have teams to come back to the properties as soon as people. the issue is when you have water sitting around for 48, 72 hours.

that's when you have larger problems. but we have a great team that immediately when we can bring our teams back in, we can look at the properties. >> in some cases you've powered down, raised the elevators to protect the equipment. are the structures strong enough to withstand winds of this speed? >> sure. our big fear is water, not wind. for example, helene was more of a water event, and milton is both water and wind. but it's more coming in, and it's going to be hitting the east coast -- or west coast of florida here at high tide, which is more of a concern. but our assets -- a storm surge, just to put it in perspective, it's like having a tractor trailer come through the building and it's hard to prevent that. we'll do our best, but after ian, we invested a lot of c

capital into our investments. we have moved electrical equipment up, installing new elevators, so i think our goal is, with climate change here, we know the storms may come with greeter frequency. the idea is how do you limit the amount of down time? so that's our focus and we feel good about our teams and ready for the hurricane. >> we're showing you the five properties you have in southern georgia and florida. you mentioned your insurance costs have doubled since 2019 for your florida properties. at what point do you have to think about self-insuring or stranding these assets? >> great question, kelly. fortunately for us, we're a larger opener and we have relationships that extend 20 years or more in the insurance market. so when the markets do get challenged, we and some of the larger owners are able to give back capacity. so when costs are up with fewer carriers, we are able to get

some. but the problem in the market will be what smaller property owners who don't necessarily have the scope and the scale of that large earners like we have, and especially on the residential market. the commercial insurance market is much more responsive and resilient. they can adjust prices accordingly. but the residential market is more regulated. this is a major storm, and i was talking to some insurance executives. if this is $100 million plus, they expect to see a lot of bus companies go out of business. if i were a homeowner in florida, i could be concerned right now. >> incredibly powerful to consider. and maybe it won't be, but the path of the storm, while it shifted, is still one that can do a considerable amount of damage. and if it does over $100 billion, those executives are concerned about insurance companies going broke and homeowners being able to access

coverage. so feeling perhaps a little more level headed about what's to come. raymond, good luck and thank you for joining us. >> thanks, kelly, for having me on. coming up, we'll bring you the results oh of that ten-year auction note. it has yields higher, touching 4.06%, the highest level now since august. plus, one economist is waving the white flag on his call for a downturn but warning that we're not out of the woods yet. he joins us to tell us why. nvidia's ai summit in washington is also wrapping up with the shares just nearing all-time highs. a little lower at $135 was the june or july high. he almost got to that level this morning. we're down at $131 currently, and the biggest takeaways from the conference and look ahead to the dry of cerebrus ipo means for the space. shares of gsk spiking almost 7% after being briefly halted. the company agreed to settle

product liability cases for up to $2.2 billion. "the exchange" is back after this. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more

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welcome back. the ten-year is on the move after the auction top of the hour. rick, what do you see? >> you know, it's a very strange auction today. first of all, let's start out at the beginning. talking about 39 million reopened tens, adding to a group of ten-year votes who were brought forth initially in august of this year. so technically, it's nine-year, 10-month security. having said that, the yield was 4.066%, so a little under 4.07%. notice after the auction, we saw yields move up, make a new high yield of the day, 4.07%, and it's easing back a bit. if you look at the chart over the last six or seven trading sessions, what's unique is we are now six sessions in a row where we have traded above the previous day's high yield. that's a momentum builder. having said all that, the reason i gave this auction a c plus is

because of one category in particular. indirect bidders. think about it this way -- indirect bidders, these are customers that need to go through a primary dealer or through some type of toll keeper to interact with the auction process. and in many cases, it's foreign central banks. foreign central banks, this indirect bidding category came in at 77.6%. i found one auction that equaled that, and that was in february of '22. but 21 years of auction history, i couldn't find a higher percentage than that. but if you combine that with direct bidders, that total pretty much equals the ten auction average. up like yesterday's auction where direct bidders like mutual funds, pension funds were aggressive, on this one it was foreign central banks. so ultimately, the c plus is

primarily because of that one category, but rates continue to move higher, whether it's a c plus auction or not, many investors seem to have shied away from getting too adress save on a maturity that seems to be moving in one direction. price is down, yield's up. >> fascinating. rick, thank you. last week's stronger than expected jobs report has been resetting expectations on rate cuts. my next guest is waving the white flag on a downturn, but he says it doesn't mean we're out of the woods. you're in the direct path of the hurricane, so part of this is -- a lot of people are really leaving, aren't they? >> absolutely. this looks like a pretty dangerous situation for florida. so we just went through this two years ago with hurricane ian. so fingers crossed, we have a lot of friends and family that

are in that area. so we're pretty worried. >> we're watching it hour by hour for sure. let's revisit what's been going on, on a macro level. we look at kind of nominal growth trends in the economy, which were red, red hot when we had -- right before the fed hiked, when we had all the stimulus and all the efforts. now they have slowed way down, which would suggest the fed should be cutting and the economy slowing, yet we don't experience that. is the lag just longer and longer and longer, or is something different going on in this economy right now? >> yeah, that is really the question here, right? because if you take a look at this recovery, we've had a lot of volatility on the demand and supply side. so for two years, really the first part of the recovery, we were seeing double digit, high single digit nominal gdp growth. she's not really affected by high supply side shocks.

if you look at the productivetive statistics, we had two years where productivity averaged in the minus category, negative productivity growth. in the last five quarters, running close to 3% average. the supply side is recovering while the fed's tightening has slowed. that's really emaculate disinflation story, so is this it? did the fed simply succeed and they nailed it, or the lags just longer, are there are some risks out there? i think markets and economists are getting swung around by these monthly jobs figures, which have been a bit volatile. the july jobs data that came out in early august set off recession alarm bells. at that point, we had the rate up 0.9% from the cyclical trough in 2023. unprecedented outside of a down turn developing. now two jobs reports later, we

get some big upward revisions and a surprise to the upside headline figure. and now the fed shouldn't be cutting rates at all. maybe they should mothball the entire enterprise. just take a deep breath. i think we're going to need some more data. >> it's just so strange. so i think about what's different, i would say three things may be different this time. maybe the economy needed to shrink post pandemic, but it was still fine. so we're getting these rescissionary signals, but it doesn't matter. the other thing is fiscal, is the fiscal stimulus so strong and the deficit so large, that's kind of the wild card here? or immigration, is this massive population surge, which is where a lot of those job gains are going and it's hard to get a clear read on the labor market, also making it harder to figure out what's taking place?

>> of all of those, so the immigration push and the growth in the labor supply helped to take some of the steam out of wage growth. where you get a lot of layoffs is when topline growth, nominal gdp falls below the cost structure. wage costs, you know, the growth rate of wages. then you see layoffs, that's typically a recession. kudos, this is scott summers' musical chair model, so you should have scott on. so that's one way in which the supply side can help if nominal growth is slowing on the back of the entire monetary policy. >> but it can bring wage growth down enough. >> topline growth is still running in the low 5s, and wage growth is below that. so there hasn't been a big impetus for layoffs yet. >> which is great. but the pace of hiring has slowed to levels consistent with

a 7% unemployment rate. to bring down the cost of borrowing for small businesses, they could start to expand again. could that help work us through this period? >> it would be a mistake if the fed just mothballs the rate cuts here. the market is pricing in a slower path in terms of the fed's easing. and with that, the bond market inflation expectations, five-year horizon for tips/spreads, barely 220 basis points is. that the field losing control of bond yields? let's put aside the fact that they don't control it any way. but if they're doing it right, you're not going to crater inflation expectations. so i would say the fed should be monitoring some of those forward looking indicators and we'll watch. a surveyed based weakness in september for the labor market data was concerning. we saw that in the jolts numbers

for hires and quits. we saw that in the nfib data in terms of jobs hard to fill. you know, i don't think we're out of the woods here in terms of the labor market is just perfectly steadied. so we're going to need some more data, i think. >> just when we need that data, we're going to have the hurricane effect, where it could take a month or two to figure out the clear read. mike, thanks for coming. appreciate your time. coming up, housing remains one of the biggest topics in this election. in nevada, it's the number one issue, and it's not exaggerating to say that voters there could decide the battle for the white house. we'll go live to vegas for a look at the statehousing crisis and how both candidates are campaigning to crunch the crucial latino vote there. back after this.

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good afternoon, everyone. i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update.

israel's retaliation against iran for its recent ballistic missile attack will be "lethal, precise, and surprising." that's according to israeli defense minister in a video published by israeli media today, in which he reiterated those who attack them will pay a heavy price and described iran's attack as a failure. melinda french gates is launching a $250 million fund to improve women's mental and physical health. organizations worldwide that address barriers to address women's health will have until december 31st to apply for funding. and early this morning in las vegas, the tropicana casino was reduced to rubble in the city's first casino implosion in almost a decade. it included fireworks and a drone show, a new stadium will be built on the same site.

there she goes. and here some the a's. kelly, back to you. >> they did fireworks and a drone show for the implosion? >> i guess so, yeah. and there's the sphere over behind it there. that must be fantastic. >> tyler, thanks. tyler mathisen. staying in nevada, the state's housing crisis is the worst in the nation, and the number one issue for voters in that swing state. megan is in las vegas with a closer look today. megan? >> reporter: yeah, kelly, a lot going on in las vegas county. this county has the potential to swing nevada and the presidential election in november. out here, it is all about housing. it's a big issue for latino voters. they make up about a third of the population here and they put housing at the top of the list of issues that they care most about. and projects like this one are going up all over las vegas these days, fueled in part by a billion dollars that the biden administration has sent to nevada from the american lrescu

plan. while builders say it's helping fund these projects, they say they feel like they're barely scratching the surface, when the estimated shortfall of homes needed is 89,000. >> so we're building all the time. we have 2,000 units under development, yet we know it's a drop in the bucket. there are 14 affordable housing units available for every 100 households that need it. what do the other 86 households do? that's what we're wrestling with locally. >> reporter: kamala harris is on her way tonight, devoting a huge chunk of her economic agenda to housing. but organizers said the best policy ideas can only go so far. >> of course, if you're constantly working, it's difficult to make the time to go vote, which is why you look at your grocery bill, what was

that? and that's how you end up voting. >> reporter: kelly, this is all showing up in the polls here. a recent poll showed that harris is leading trump with latino voters by 14 points nationally, but that's the smallest margin that democrats have had in four election cycles. on this issue of the cost of living, harris is losing to trump by nine points. >> did you ask them which proposals from the candidates they thought would do the most to fix the housing issue? >> reporter: they didn't want to get into specifics, the builders here. they said all money isgood money. we'll take federal and state money, but they said any one thing isn't enough. a big issue here is also the land availability. behind me, while we have one affordable housing unit here, right next to it is federal lands that builders can't build on or develop. they're also worried about running out of money and land. they say the more proposals, the better, we just need help.

>> megan, thank you for that report today. from nevada to nbda, nvidia shares are pulling back as they wrap up their summit in washington. and after almost testing their record highs from the summer today. we'll speak with one analyst who sees 20% upside still coming. "the exchange" is back after this.

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nvidia's ai summit in washington, d.c. is wrapping up today, and nearly propelled the shares to a new all-time high. the company is focused on energy efficiency and enterprise software as we work to avoid being boxed in as just a processor company worth a couple trillion dollars. and fox con has a key component to have backwell. here so discuss is stacey. let's talk about the big picture on nvidia after this summit. the shares almost kissed that new high this morning. >> yeah, they did. look, people are getting excited about the story again as we approach earnings and then year end and next year as the new platform with blackwell starts to ramp. by all indications, all the supply chain checks and

everything else, demand looks off the charts. you know, it's usually a good time to be owning v ing nvidia launch cycle. so people are getting really excited about it. >> maybe it's near term technical analysis, but katie stockton says maybe it's range bound for now, maybe we go back under a hundred. there's been a lot of excitement and a lot of hype. and what i know about blackwell most people know. >> there was some rumors about some delays to blackwell, some redesigns. as it turns out there were some issues that they were able to work through, and it turned into a nothing burger, at least from the stand point of the trajectory. it doesn't look like it slowed anything. that was the last time it went under a hundred. short of anything dramatic like that, i don't know if we see that anywhere. at this point, the indication is

that the numbers are much more likely. they have an upward and downward bias. i ex-ekt that's true for the stock, as well. >> what do you have for the pe here? what are the earnings that the market is expecting, and what do you think is possible? what should the multiple be for a company growing like this? >> the multiple is not that expensive, if you believe the numbers. the sell side is somewhere around $4, maybe a little more. the buy side to the investors are higher, closer to $4.50 or $5. again, if you look at some of the supply chain checks and you see where the revenues could go in the demand is sufficient to meet the supply that is likely to be available, you can get numbers higher than that. if the numbers are any closer, maybe high 30s multiple on a realistic -- it's not that expensive. and i made this point before. it's much cheaper today than

before the run started a year and a half ago. the stock has gone up a ton, but the earnings have gone up much more than the stock. so that makes these numbers sustainable. that's the controversy. the numbers have gotten so big so quickly, is it sustainable? but for now, numbers will go up. >> historically speaking, the new chip always gets a high multiple, but of time, they become too cyclical, they get lower multiples as a result, and some of the bulls on this have to say basically that it's not going to be cyclical this time around to justify trading where it is. what's going on with the rest of the industry in terms of supply and demand right now? >> we look at the rest of the industry, this will be an up-turn year for semis, but memory is going to grow a lot, because memory was horrendous last year. they took supply offline because the demand was so horrible and

because the pricing went up. so memory will be good. you know, pcs and smartphones are okay. you're probably not getting a lot of growth and there's worry about pcu inventories. data centers are off the charts, but networking and cpus are pretty weak. industrial is pretty week, not seeing tons of signs of recovery. and automotive is starting to roll over in a big way. so, in general, outside of ai, i wouldn't say things look fantastic. but ai demand right now, it's much more -- it's being negated by supply and revenue. they're selling everything they can make. and for nvidia, that's where they play. >> up 2,000% in the past two years, one of the great stories. you have $155 price target. stacy, thank you for your time

today. coming up, boeing shares hit a two-year low today after the company withdrew its contract offer for the 33,000 machinists on strike now for nearly four weeks. boeing saying further negotiations do not make sense at this point. the shares are down 2.5% today, and almost 7.5% since the stri gan.ke they're trading around $150. "the exchange" will be back after this.

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piper sandler taking survey with teen survey. pep c beating out campbell for favorite snack company. meta's instagram still the go-to social media site. smartphone is made by apple and elf dominates when it comes to beauty. careen is piper sandler's research analyst.

great to have you here. >> thanks for having me on. >> i don't know if you covered footwear, but crocs seems to be on the way out. is that so? >> that is. i'm not the analyst that covers crocs, but we did see in our survey, it is oneof the brands on its way out for fashion trends. >> you know, the stanley cup is on its way out. they said lululemon is on the way out. the stock figured that out a little while ago, so that whole fashion trend they're looking for something new. what is going on in the beauty category? we've seen those stocks under some pressure. is it china, is it amazon taking share? what did you glean there this? >> a lot going on in beauty. china has been a pressure point for global beauty for several years, but we're seeing primarily in the u.s., we have a weaker consumer, a little more frugal of a consumer. there's a little less money, so we're seeing that show up in the market data, and we saw it show

up in our survey results. we're seeing that amazon is gaining share, more brands are starting to sell on amazon, and that's putting some pressure on some of the specialty retailers, but we're also seeing other retailers really lean into beauty and start to capture shares, target, walmart, even the drugstores. they're starting to become more prominent players in beauty. >> i can't understand why ulta, what happened? even here again, you say they're c ceding more share. what changed? >> it's fascinating to watch how quickly the beauty retail landscape has evolved the past several surveys. ulta has been losine iing to sa.

a lot of those stores are in close proximity to ulta. rare beauty is the number two cosmetics brand in our survey. so ulta has been struggling with safora's strength and growth. but also, amazon, more brands are coming on amazon. estee lauder has put six brands on amazon. that's putting pressure on ulta as consumers look to replenish, they're going to amazon versus in the store. we're seeing target start to grow their beauty offerings. they are adding ulta in a lot of the target stores. and so it's tough to know if target strength is due to ulta or their own investment in their own beauty section. we have yet to figure that out. but target is definitely gaining. >> so that's an important driver for the stock.

before we go, in terms of your favorite picks here, you like fragrance companies, you like elf, cody, sbh, and you have an overweight on estee lauder. >> yeah, yeah. we are big fans of fragrance categories. it was up 47% for males. it's seeing extreme growth. we really like cody, which is a lot of exposure. and estee lauder, they are putting a lot of brands on amazon. i see that as a big opportunity for them in the u.s. >> all right. thanks for joining us today. e wer thpolunch picks things up after a break.

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welcome to "power lunch." the minutes of the fed september meeting show quite a bit of disagreement over the issue of 25 or 50 base point rate cut. they agreed on ultimately 50. where they agreed, all agreed it was appropriate to ease. it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the funds rate, and that the economy evolved as expected, they said it was appropriate to move to a more neutral policy stance. most saw policy as restrictive. they disagreed how