thank you very much. we're really always appreciate you having -- sharing -- excuse me, sharing your opinion with us. bill strazzullo, thank you very much. >> cruise lines are a bright spot. maybe the s&p. >> pretty good if you are not around florida. >> that's right. go elsewhere. "closing bell" starts right now. all right. thanks very much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner. this make or break hour begins with a record high for the s&p and the dow. the bull market marking two years this week. we'll ask our experts over this final stretch how long can it last, including top wealth adviser rich saperstein of hightower. look at the score car. outperformance from the semis again today. you can see, its ee a gathering strength rally today as we are above record closing highs for the dow and the s&p.

kelly was just talking about cruise lines. well, they're in part putting stocks on track for that record close because they're all higher today. got some upgrades in the space. norwegian's up near 10%. yields continue to be a big part of the story. that's helping stocks as well. we do have other standouts to note including general motors. nike is higher on a favorable team survey. all of this takes us to this talk of the tape. remarkable run for stocks up 60% since the bull markets start. how much can we expect this to continue? we'll ask malcolm miller. a cnbc contributor and is here at post 9. welcome to new york. >> always good to be here. >> two years in. saturday is going to mark two years of this bull market. how long can we count on it lasting? >> how much time have you got? i think ai is proving that it has that kind of staying power. last year the story was

microsoft. this year the story is nvidia. what's the stock next year that the ai arms race powers higher and higher. that's the question we should be asking, not necessarily will it go often. >> implicit is your belief. it sounds like you think megacaps will continue to take us to the promise land here. >> yes. i think megacaps will continue to take us to the promise land, not at the pace that they have the last couple of years necessarily, but i think what we're seeing is the broadening, to use that word that we keep using, is really being impacted by ai once again, right? you look at things like material, manufacturing. those things are all being powered again by our demands on the grid. >> let's talk about this 2-year-old bull market because it's overcome a lot. now there do remain naysayers on what's happening. i don't think as many as existed before, but can you just speak to the resiliency of this market

and what continues to guide it today in the face of continued noise here, there, and parts everywhere? >> yeah. i think you're making a really good point if you consider that rising rates were supposed to be the thing that really crushed the markets and in the face of the highest rates we've seen historically in decades. the markets hit, i don't care, especially since the markets powering the outperformance didn't need to borrow to invest in growth. if you consider the cash sitting on the balance sheet of a microsoft, google, amazon, they weren't worried about the fed so they could build the llms that are powering the ai revolution we're talking about. ment we're at a moment in an easing cycle. the fed is cutting the rates. which means the companies that couldn't invest in growth to catch up with what's happening with the trend have the capacity to issue debtor go borrow to invest in ai which gives us a

second leg of the ai revolution. >> do you feel we need to reset our expectation or the pace at which the fed is going to cut rates? i go to the minutes which were released an hour ago. markets pricing in at 20% probability now of no change in november all though obviously t overwhelming number is 25 basis points. the pace of the fed is going to slow. >> i think we have to brace ourselves for the idea that the fed could decide to go slower from here. to your point, maybe it's still 25 basis points at the next meeting but then it's zero for some time rather than assuming an easing cycle means it's an elevator down. been an escalator up. >> that's your point of view? because, look, i remember you were one of the out liars saying i know everybody is on the same side of the boat talking about cuts. there is a chance that they actually hike, not that you think they'll do that now but you were unafraid to sort of go

against the grain on what you thought the fed was going to do. i wonder if we're getting some confirmation from hearing the minutes and such that we need to really reset our expectations, not only for what they're going to do, but what the action in the bond market is going to be. >> well, i think that we have to throw out the playbook of what has worked in the past that got us here simply because we can't look at decades of historical data and extrapolate what's going to happen going forward here because the whole covid pandemic cycle that we're still dealing with has been such a unique situation, right? the fact that unbe employment has been as low as it has with interest rates being as high as they have, and that hasn't really had an impact on a bull market the way that it normally would historically. those are two things that usually compete with each other for who's going to lead the day. i think we have to reset our expectations for what that means. i take our point on interest rates. historically i have to bring this up again, the yield curve

uninverting is a sign for things to come. we should consider that maybe the recessionary indicator that it is is telling us something and we need to position ourselves for that as well. >> does it have the ability to make us further question the multiple, the price we're willing to pay for stocks if rates are elevated? earnings have to live up to expectation. rick rieder was with us on the halftime report saying i feel comfortable in the rates being long. there's cash on the sidelines. it's not like he's short or bearish, it's starting to get uncomfortable and saying, i think it's a little rich. >> i think you can make that case in 2013, '15, '19, '21, every time we say the multiples are stretched, too high. companies say we absolutely can like nvidia. i don't think it's a cates where we look at the multiples alone, we were talking broadening

before. what's happening is the -- earnings estimates are coming up to meet the mag 7 not the mag 7 decelerating coming down. i think they're looking at 2025 earnings estimates like 17.5%. the rest of the market is roughly 1% basically for the same time period. well, that's actually an increase from january 2023, i think, when the bull market first started. so you have to consider that the broadening is everywhere else but tech but tech is not slowing down to meet that broadening happening. so iy understand the broadening but it's not indicative of the market we have today. >> amazon, there's been several downgrades. down eight of nine days. had a bit of a rebound. are you concerned about the near term tra jejectory of that stoc? >> i'm not. one of the things that's under rated, the advertising business that lives inside of amazon and it's sort of the third most

important player if you just consider what we normally talk about, aws retail and then advertising but, again, ai, if we think about the power to generate advertising using ai and how much that improves the margins that already were really nice to begin with, north of 50% estimates say, we have to consider what that means for a company like amazon who has all of the data on what you and i like to buy. >> i'd like to talk about microsoft. it's quietly underperformed. it's gotten downgrades. notes about openai losses that are going to be absorbed by microsoft. we gave all the love on the way up because of openai. now do we need to maybe take a step back and think about the lack of profitability. microsoft's investment into it and what the road looks like and what ultimately means for the stock which is only up 3%, not

even, over the last month compared to, let's say, meta and nvidia up near 24. >> let's consider the fact microsoft invested $13 billion roughly, credits, everything else, that made up that number. in return they received a trillion dollars in market cap. i would take that all day every day. so i take your point that quietly on the way down we're not hearing as much noise. i think they do need to clean up what their relationship with openai is going to be. they rejected the board seat. apple also decided we don't want to touch it either, we don't want the doj scrutiny. i think figuring out what openai is going to turn itself into here post this last funding round is going to help microsoft figure out its own path forward. it's been a bit of a distraction. >> let's broaden our conversation now. let's welcome in more guests. it's great to have both of you with us. allie, i'll ask you first.

presumably you heard our conversation. the we have new record highs on the s&p and the dow jones industrial average today. what is your outlook moving forward? >> well, first, scott, thanks for having me. we remain cautiously optimistic. it's really nice to see an increased breath in the market. earnings remain strong. we feel like the economy is going to have somewhat of a soft landing here. for us, in terms of staying invested and focusing on companies with great fundamentals is a way to stay positioned in this market. >> mike, you know, i remember many conversations we've had on the way up. as i said, we're marking two years of this bull market. are you -- are you bullish? are you not? what's your outlook? >> yeah, i'd say we're bullish on fundamentals. we struggle a little bit more with valuation. i recognize malcolm's point. large growth in the magnificent

7 is pretty significant. priced for perfection. there are other areas whether it's the s&p 493, midcaps, small caps where you're seeing the acceleration in earnings and you're not paying much for it in large cap group, in the magnificent 7 where there will be a slowdown. there will be areas to go where you're not overpaying. good and improving fundamentals driven by whether it's the yield curve steepening, whether it's ai expanding out from nvidia and helping other companies or whether it's reshoring, bringing back manufacturing to the u.s. there are a lot of positive tail winds happening in the economy. you have to be aware of where valuation is and try to go to areas that maybe haven't priced in such a perfect outcome. >> i feel like, mike, maybe one of the principle lessons of this bull market we'll look back on and say that valuation will

prove to be that one thing that some look to overplay, that it made people uneasy on the way up at several times along the way up it was, man, those stocks are too expensive. they're well above their historical averages and here we are. here we are marking new highs. so if you've used valuation as a reason to sit on the sidelines, you've watched the party go by. >> oh, for sure. i would hope folks are not on the sidelines. in the moment valuations can look -- when you look at fundamentals and look at stocks, there's that fear of missing out and you want to chase and you think things are going to continue to get better forever. you extrapolate today's results out into the future, but the reality is over 100 years of investing valuations are probably the biggest driver of long-term returns so we believe valuations are important whether you shall investing in growth or

value. the more important thing, the absolute earnings growth is more than direction. when you are getting acceleration and improvement, that typically leads to alpha generation. there are areas in the market today, whether it's housing or on the consumer side, boats and rvs, those groups are down 50, 60% from the peak and we might be bouncing along the bottom and things looking to potentially improve on lower rates, on better economic outlook. so we think there's opportunities in areas that haven't kept up and may not be as behind as some of the magnificent 7 stocks have been. >> ali, where's the best value in the market right now? >> first i'd say on ai. so main people talk about the hyper scalers, chip designers. the key is looking at the companies that are taking ai to benefit their businesses. look at someone like walmart

that's using multiple language models to improve their catalog or look at deere in terms of how you're doing pesticides and things like that. these traditional companies are using it to improve. that to us is probably the housing sector. we're going to finally see an improvement in housing. something like home depot, they're going to improve when people are repairing the older homes, buying the new appliances, hiring the professionals. so while we agree technology is doing well, broadening the scope and looking at other opportunities, to us that's compelling value. >> you like the housing trade? >> i think it's a reasonable trade, but i think the housing sector is so broken that it's going to take more than a couple ticks down in interest rates to unlock the pent-up demand that exists. >> i mean, mortgage rates are up obviously since the fed cut rates because of what yields have done. >> sure. >> we haven't gotten the expected drop i think some were looking for in rates. i remember, you know, diane

olick the other day was talking about how mortgage rates were up 27 basis points in a short time. >> we're still under built. that's the historical problem. since 2011, housing starts trended down for a decade because home builders just did not want to put shovels in the dirt and take the chance to be caught out if another 2008 type scenario happened. we haven't recovered from that. the from the point where you have millions of millennials that are looking to spend money to buy homes and get out there, there's no supply. that's the problem we have to fix. i don't think interest rautsds are going to be the thing to do it. >> what do we think, mike, financial stocks as we're talking earnings at the end of the week? it's going to set the tone for what this season may look like at the outset. the space has done quite well. some suggest you can't lose the financials if you want to believe the bull market can roll on at any type of clip. >> financials have done a little

bit better but it's been a tough run. we've had an inverted yield curve for two years. that's really tough for regional banks definitely, which are trading 20, 30% below the long-term average. there haven't been a lot of ipos. if you look at the bigger banks, jamie dimon was out yesterday saying it needs to be easier for companies to go public. a little bit self-serving, but he's right. ipos have been slow. there have been a few. as we look into next year you're going to see the large pipelines come true. in terms of financials in general, we have a contrarian, more positive view on regional banks given the steepening yield curve. credit metrics have been good. we hear a lot of stories about commercial real estate issues and other delinquencies out there. the reality is, the underlying metrics have been pretty good. what you have with regional banks is, again, 20, 30% discount to average valuations and you're getting dividend, 4,

5% yields. we have a contrarian view on that. >> i get the argument that interest rates are going to be the thing that really drive the financial sector. i think historically, again, that has been true. the net interest margin is the thing that really drives the show, if you are going to play the financials, the gsibs will be where you want be to be. they're taking companies public. they're forcing mergers and acquisitions. those things that are very likely to happen following november's election with a much more favorable administration than the one that we currently have with biden. >> we'll leave it there. thanks, everybody. i appreciate it. mike and ali, thanks. malcolm, we'll see you back here on our set at post 9. to julia boorstin looking at the biggest names heading into the close. >> piper sandler's new teen survey which surveyed over 13,000 teenagers across 47

states. nike remaining the number one brand in both apparel and footwear. piper noting the brand has lost mind share. up barely 2.5%. elf beauty remaining the position as aggen z's number on brand. instagram was found to be the most used platform among teenagers at 87% but still falls behind tiktok which is teen's favorite social media app. >> julia boorstin. just getting started. navigating the tech trade. eric jackson is back. live at the new york stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back. nearing the two-year october anniversary for the 2022 bottom stocks. most of it on the back of nvidia's 1,000% gain. is the sector still set up for more up side after that run? let's ask emj's eric steel. thanks for coming back. >> good time to take the temperature of tech, if you will. what's the reading? >> well, i agree with rick rieder, who you chatted with a couple days ago, who said, you know, it's getting more difficult to find screaming buys two years on in a rally, scott, for sure, but there are still some great stories out there. i mean, i remember coming on with you in june of '23 banging the drum for carvana. at the time it was 15, 17 bucks.

today it's 190. so it's very difficult to look around and say what stocks are out there that are going to ten x from here over the next, whatever, 18 months. you know, that's going to be tough. but that story of carvana, there are a lot of others, nvidia, too, fits this bill, you sort of set it and forget it. if there's a good long-term secular growth story, you can get so distracted by focusing on the macro, fed, black monday, tokyo monday and all of this, and the growth stories play out over time. i think there are a lot out there. >> let's go through the holdings. i want to ask you about china. i want to hold off on that. you have apple. what's your read on where this stock goes from here? i think there are legitimate questions about the demand for the new phone. how much these new ai innovations are going to spur an upgrade cycle. what's your take? >> i still like it.

that's one of my favorites amongst the big tech names because there's not an immediate rush to go out and add apple intelligence on the new iphone. they're going to play out in a staged process, but they are powerful. i do believe that we are going to see the mother of all upgrade cycles. the biggest upgrade since 2015 or something like that. it's going to happen over the next year, not just september, october leading up to the holidays. i think that that is still a very strong, powerful story. >> what are you thinking about the robo taxi event with tesla tomorrow? >> i think it's going to be the biggest event they've had since probably the unveil of the model x. sometimes these things are duds and we just don't know.

we don't know if tomorrow night's event is going to be -- is tesla about to basically disrupt uber and lyft and put these guys out of business or are they going to partner with them? are they going to reveal some great leap forward towards the neural networks, deep learning, only they have, no one else has based on all of the fsd miles traveled. so i think it's going to be significant. i own it. i still like it. it's been one of the laggards in the big tech names. it's still under appreciated as an ai story. they still get the benefit of the doubt from elon, pixie dust, even though the bears say they shouldn't get the credit. if they do come forward with announcements about that, it could be a significant catalyst for the stock. >> you told our producers, quote, the biggest opportunity to make money in the next six months is china, especially

china tech if, and a big if, the government follows through with its stimulus plans. we're getting some sniffs here that maybe they're not going to follow through to the degree that the markets seem to be euphoric about. what does that mean about the alibaba's and some other names in had your book? >> any time david tepper comes on the network and bangs the drum, you have to sit up and take notice like he did. >> that's fair. >> a couple weeks back talking about china. he did say the government has to follow through. listen, they've indicated they will. i think the market got a little disappointed on tuesday morning when the press -- one of the press conferences that they had over there just didn'tful through follow through with a specific stimulus number that they attached to what was coming out next. however, they have another press conference coming up this saturday and we've seen sort of two days of selling, the market is having a bit of a tantrum.

i think like tepper, they have to follow through. this has the potential to be the biggest economic announcement in xi's tenure. so when you look at all these stocks and i'm looking for a 10 xor from here, you know, china's the place it has to happen. if there's government support, all these stocks are trading at multi-year lows in terms of their multiples. there's a name i have, eip player. half of it is cash sitting on the balance sheet. you mentioned alibaba. if there is any kind of follow through, these names are going to explode back to the up side. >> if you told me you had sold

alibaba, i wouldn't have been surprised at all. it is worth noting, too, you know, for a david tepper there's a stan druckenmiller who says no thanks. as long as xi is in charge, i'm not interested in owning any stocks over there. i'm paraphrasing a little bit, but that's the general theme of thought of what he had to say. >> you haven't been wrong to be conservative about china, to hang back. i don't think you'd be wrong to hang back and see what saturday's press conference holds. however, i just think that the odds are stacked, you know, in the favor of this is a government that's got -- you know, self-preservation is important here. they've got to do something. things are not looking right unless they stimulate that economy. if they do, there's such little exposure to these chinese stock names, especially compared to where they've been historically.

it's not inconceivable you could see them not just double or triple but 7 x, 8 x. they've done it before. some of the brokerage names over there have been the quickest to jump back. obviously people are going to jump in and buy stocks over there. tiger brokers, futu holdings is another company that has benefitted but could jump again if the bazooka comes through. >> eric, thanks. eric jackson joining us on "closing bell." rick saperstein is joining me after the break at post 9. we're back after the bell after this. my mom was a cuban refugee. i'm first gen born in the united states. i think about the times when they -- my parents were teaching themselves english, when they

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just might be the answer. all right. welcome back. stocks rising for a second day. dow and s&p both on track for a

record close. tech once again leading the rally with microsoft, amazon, apple all higher today. my next guest owns all three. joining me is rich saperstein ranked number 4 on barons top list. good to get your thoughts as we enter into the home stretch this year. >> here we go. >> about to mark two years of this bull market. pretty crazy, man. time flies. how are you feeling about it? >> i think the setup is great. labor is strong. economic activity is strong. inflation is declining. and, you know, the real issue for the stock market going forward is going to be the elevated multiple and the inflated estimates for earnings in '25. >> you say inflated. you're insinuating they're too high? >> multiples are 21, 22.

it's a 15% increase over this year's estimate. >> that's right. >> so it's a lofty goal. >> you doubt whether we can reach that? >> i'm still fully invested so as a long-term investor, i believe in the equities and where i'm positioned. >> we should show the s&p 500 because i have my eye on that as we get ever close to 5800. did you think we would be at 5800 now given all that this market has had to absorb over the last couple of years? forget the couple years, even six months. it's been really resilient. >> it's truly amazing, but monetary policy was designed to slow the economy and bring down inflation, yet you have fiscal policy that is stimulating through a $2 trillion deficit so you have an offset, and that's been able to -- that's enabled the stock market to continue to push forward. >> interesting performance in the last quarter, right? we had tech take a back seat to things like financials,

utilities, other areas of the market. does that change anything about how you view the rest of this year? >> no. we still like large cap technology. they are the established owners of human attention so they are the dominant global players. billions of customers, and that will continue to be a key part of the growth story. >> so you continue to lean into those names? >> absolutely. we could discuss them individually, but there's factors impacting all of them, which is why we like them. >> but i find it interesting though that, you know, while you suggest a little bit of discomfort with the multiple, these stocks are the epicenter of the discomfort, aren't they? >> yeah. >> how do you square that? >> because i'm basically positioned with the idea that these are long-term holds and they have tremendous growth elements and the market is going to rotate how much they're pricing these companies. but i'm going to hold them for the long term and i see what

they're doing. these are very clever managers in all of these companies. >> yeah. do you watch amazon lately? it's traded poorly lately. concerning? >> no, because they're coming out with cooper, the wireless broadband that's going to compete with starlink. so you think about starlink is running at a 6.5, $7 billion rate right now. they're going to compete with starlink. think about what it does to the prime membership and the lock on that, let alone the retail business when you start marrying all of that. amazon's got a great future going forward. >> let's talk about utilities. i mentioned these other groups that did really well last quarter. you've liked utilities for a while. been talking about the power generation that's going to be needed for the revolution that you're talking about in ai. all that said, the group was up like 19% in the last quarter, right? >> yes. >> the best performing of the s&p. >> yes. >> you think that continues? >> so we started buying vistra

energy in 2021. >> a lot of people like that name. >> we were in at 16. it's 125 right now. we recently added more to it. the story is basically the power generation versus consumption is only a 2% cushion. the then you have coal being decommissioned. you have the tremendous growth in ai and data centers. they've doubled since 2021 to 5400 data accept terse around america, and then you look at the pjm, the annual auction for surplus power was up 800% year over year. all that is a tapestry of great demand, secular for power generation. i'd be very focused on the independent power producers in america like vistra energy. >> we talked about what you like. let's talk about what you don't. i just had a conversation with eric jackson about china. he loves it assuming the stimulus is going to continue at the clip in which the market was

seemingly expecting. do you avoid those stocks? >> avoid it. absolutely. china versus the u.s. in the last ten years, the u.s. has dwarfed the return by 70%. so think about it like the brix in '01. how is that working out for everyone? i wouldn't be dabbling in china. if you are a trader, you can figure that out. >> india's -- you know, you may have a quibble with brazil, russia, china i get. a lot of people loved india and the market's done well. >> so did america. so did large cap tech. so, look, you don't have to leave fish to find fish. there's great fish here in america in the markets. >> okay. so do you like the small fish? >> no, i don't. >> that's a good debate right now too. >> that's right. if the economy does well, large cap stocks and small cap stocks will do well. so the small is at a discount to large, which is very wide right now, but i'd rather own the

large and not buy the reversion of the mean trade or the fact that the fed's more accommodative, lower cost of capitol for the smids and their floating rate debt. i'd rather stay with large cap stocks. >> we'll leave it right there. rich saperstein of hightower. julia boorstin is with us. >> one drug maker agreeing to pay up to $2.2 billion on set ld suits. one chip maker surging on new ai offerings. more after the break. you might wonder, john legend,

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all right. we're about 15 out from the closing bell on yet another record-setting trading session. julia boorstin looking at the key shocks. >> shares of gsk jumping 6% as the drug maker agrees to pay up to $2.2 billion to settle 9 the 3% of u.s. state court liability suits which claim that a discounted version of gsk's heartburn drug zantac had links to cancer. shares of astera labs gained 15% after they produced a new series of fabric switches, a key component of data management in artificial intelligence. now 15%. still ahead, cnbc catching

up with jpmorgan's coo daniel pinto. we have highlights just ahead. all over this rally. dow and s&p both as we said on track for a record close. s&p trying to top 5800. we'll watch that next.

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markets. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. plus, boeing the worst performer on the trading day. phil lebeau will tell us what's going on. leslie picker with her story. mike, we're pushing 5800 on the s&p 500. we'll have a new record close for that and the dow today. >> yeah. the it seems like we're burning up some of that caution that really did set in place coming into october, this idea that so many people were braced for potentially more down side. i feel as if we're dealing with all of the known positives. an economy that seems like it's percier than we thought it was. fed might slow down the easing path, but so what. cpi tomorrow. yeah, there's some stakes involved there. since we've already gone into a place of listening to a potentially less dovish fed message, it doesn't seem like it's that dangerous. all that being said, we still have the vix at 21. people are still saying it's pre-election time.

we can't just assume that it's going to be cutting loose to the up side in a real dramatic way from here, but we'll see. >> positioning will be interesting. >> yeah. >> you have good thoughts about the economy. fed's going to be cutting maybe a little bit less than we thought. case in point, the russell. >> yeah. >> that's where it probably shows up more acutely, right? >> i think that the threshold for belief in the russell is higher, right? you have to see the companies actually coming out and justifying where they're trading right now and showing that you're going to have decent earnings growth there. in general, it's a more balanced market than it was. mag 7. it's an i shall oo. it doesn't usually manifest. >> phil lebeau, boelg.

we're almost a month into the strike. yesterday they concluded a second straight day of talks with the federal mediator. then they put out a note -- boeing put out a note saying we're pulling our offer off the table. there was no new, improved offer to discuss so why continue talks. put that altogether and that's why shares of boeing are dropping. by the way, the strike cost estimate according to s&p yesterday when it put boeing on credit watch negative, $1 billion per month. we're almost $1 million into the strike. the question is when, scott? do they wait until after earnings as many expected them to, or do they wait longer? they can't wait too long because they're below the $10 billion threshold that many believe they have said is sort of the floor in terms of they don't want to

go too far below in terms of liquidity. >> you have a busy week between that, the tesla robe bow taxi, hurricane, airlines. phil, we'll see you a lot over the next couple of days. phil lebeau. leslie picker talked with jpmorgan's coo. what did you find out? >> yeah, scott, it was a rare interview with daniel pinto. we spoke a lot about rate cuts and their impact on the economy as well as the firm itself. he said he thinks the fed will, quote, thread the needle. inflation is still there despite some components that are concerning about inflation. he said the fed is on top of this and will manage it all. as for rate cuts impact on the firm and the bank's profitability metric nobody as net interest income, pinto said in september that market expectations were too high. >> the reason why the market, we saw with the analysts, based on

what the rate curve was showing at the time so i think we have stabilized too. we saw that it was a bit too high in the expectations. now they have adjusted some of it. >> so you think that the expectations are now more acceptable? >> they are more reasonably ali aligned. >> les, thanks. great stuff. that's leslie picker. mike, i'll send it back to you. speaking of the banks. >> yeah. >> they kicked it off on friday. we'll be talking about that. >> yes. they're running a little bit. they tend as a group not to trade that great off of numbers not because there's anything too scary in them. a lot of times the sources of any up side surprise is not something you would want to

extrapolate. they had a great trading quarter. they had credit that was better than expected. all of that makes them trade noisy. in general, the kbw bank breaking out to a post silicon valley bank meltdown high. you have the financials and industrials in the bull's column in terms of sources of strength within the market. again, it's all pushing up against have we already priced in had soft landing? you've been talking about two years into a bull market. the overall returns aren't that great but this is the best start to a calendar year since 1997 to this date. >> let's go -- i remember when we were talking on "halftime" i said ryan dietrich puts this out since 1950 the average bull market lasts 5 1/2 years. you said i think it was 181% gain. >> exactly. >> quibble with it a little bit. give me something. >> i quibble with the average length of a prior bull market. by the numbers, if you say a bull market lasts until it goes down 20%, then it resets, well,

if you move that to 19%, believe it or not, four markets actually had 19 plus% declines before bottoming out. that was '90, ' 98, 2011, 2018. if you basically say the four year bull market was a 3, an 8, and a 2. if we. >> down 19% from here, the s&p is at 4700. hey, it's still a bull market. it's fine. you know what i mean? i think there's an asterisk. it doesn't change the overall point. it's not a particularly mature bull market. it's not a particularly high performing one. there could still be plenty more to go. look, we had two bear markets in the last 4 1/2 years. that's usually more than your quota over any 4 1/2 year period. i do totally buy into the idea there's no reason to believe this is going to die of old age or run out of fundamental support any time soon given what we know right now about how the

economy is doing and how the fed is reacting to it. >> this has been a remarkably resilient market. you're going to go out -- you may not get to 500 plus on the dow today, but nonetheless you have a record on the dow. record close on the s&p as we're pushing up against 5800. let's go to "overtime" now. that bell marks the end of regulation. soccer legend ringing the closing bell. pimco doing the honors at the nasdaq. record closing highs for the dow and the s&p 500 as attention now turns to inflation data and to earnings. that is the scorecard on wall street. welcome to "closing bell overtime." i am jon fortt. morgan brennan is off. plus, mortgage applications dipping lower this week, but one