years, it's helped them keep up the momentum. and on the buyer side, latinos have been especially vulnerable. more so than other demographics to those higher interest rates. it's harder to afford what they can, and there's so much more competition for what is out there. it's making everything that much harder. >> megan, thank you. that's going to do it for "overtime." "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site on a day when the dow and s&p 500 both closed at fresh record highs, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. with the doj considering breaking up google, is the stock now a no-touch? we'll debate that. plus, obesity drugs and the black market. our report into the growing underworld of counterfeit ozempic and other drugs. a must-see cnbc investigation coming up. and later, still grounded at boeing. tracking milton as a monster storm nearing impact in florida.

and the road to tesla's robotaxi. fast friend gene munster in the house ahead of tomorrow's event. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, bonawyn eison and guy adami. the doj last night setting out proposals that could lead to a breakup of google. shares of alphabet dropping in response. eamon javers has the details on this proposal and the likely next steps. eamon? >> hey there. look, this is the first look that we've gotten at what the doj thinks a post-trial google should look like. this is just a high level proposal, remember. doj is expected to offer a more detailed framework by the end of the year and a federal judge is expected to make his ruling by the summer of 2025. google lost the case, remember, back in august, when a federal judge ruled it had a monopoly in the search market, and in a court filing last night, the department of justice said it is considering a breakup of technology giant google and is contemplating sweeping changes

to the business practices of the company. the doj said the measures it would like to impose could include contract requirements and prohibitions, nondiscrimination product requirements. data and interoner ability requirements, and structural requirements. it's that last term, structural requirements, that indicates that doj is thinking about ways to force google to sell or spin off chunks of itself, but reading the tea leaves here, there are a lot more details in this document around the contracting language, the data sharing, then there are details around breaking up the company. so, it may be that doj is further down the road in thinking about some of the less dramatic approaches, or willing to put those in writing in a way it's not with the breakup stuff. still, google reacted aggressively last night in a blog post, bashing what it called the doj's radical and sweeping proposals. google said, we believe that today's blueprint goes well beyond the legal scope of the court's decision about search distribution contracts.

a spokesman for google rival duck duck go said, this proposal smartly takes aim at breaking google's illegal hold on the general search market now, and ushering in a new era of enduring competition moving forward. now, one idea that's sure to be the focus of a lot of attention in all of this, the idea of requiring google to make pu publicly available the indexes, the data fieldesque and the models used for google search, as well as search results, features and ads, including the underlying ranking signals. that could help other companies get into the bishgusiness. but there are questions there around user privacy, as well. >> we're talking about search as it stands today, but there's language in that blueprint that indicates this would possibly extend to a.i., too, search of the future. >> yeah. it's very clear that the department of justice is thinking a lot about a.i. that's one reason they say why they need to do more due diligence here. they want to go back to

discovery, get a lot of current internal documents in order to understand how this market is playing out real time. the last time they got documents from inside google was, like, three years ago. now they want to do that again so they understand where they're going with a.i. and how to structure this so that google doesn't have unfair domination of the a.i. marketses. one idea they're kicking around in the document is allowing websites to opt out, even if they're being crawled for google search, to opt out of having their content be used for google a.i. reconstruction, so you can say, yeah, you can find me on google, but i don't want you summarizing my content for your a.i. model, and taking the fruits of my labor, so to speak, and putting it into your a.i. machine that users ultimately will never come to my site to see. >> right. eamon, thank you. eamon javers in washington for us. >> you bet. >> this would drastically change google's business model, and it's a big if, because it's going to take years to litigate in court. but if this came to fruition, or even part of it, it would really

change the model here. >> the big ifs are really more important than what this could potentially be down the road, if they exhaust all the other, whatever venue they have, to try to exhaust, and all the other remedies are not chosen, and this ends up being the one, and the business is the same as it is now then. what's that worth today? i don't know. apparently three bucks or so. i just don't know what to make of it and i think -- it's just, you know, the market doesn't like uncertainty, particularly when you have this great business model and it's under some siege, but -- i just don't know how to discount it in any way that i would have any faith in. so, i am kind of just letting it be. >> interestingly, when we hear about, you know, proposals and things, markets are able to say, you know, that might be years down the line, google is going to appeal, they're going to fight this, and it doesn't have much of a reaction in the stock. at its lows, it was down more than 2% on the back of this

proposal. >> but the headline risk here is something that at least, if you had thought about at some point, and i don't know when, because this was all expected. there's no surprises here. it was incredibly broad. there's still detail to follow. but you're right, and so, it gets back to, if you look at google, really year to date, you know, it's -- the stock's meandered. it's not done a whole lot. is the market doing something that the analyst community hasn't yet done? these are medium term risks. and don't you kind of -- wouldn't we say, if you broke up the company, the sum of the parts is worth a lot more than the company is now? i know that's not what you want to see, and we're talking about a.i. risks, but i'm not so sure if you broke down, you know, search and data and the four areas that they're targeting, i think those are things that would add value. >> can i just say one thing about that? >> yeah. >> i think what they're trying to do -- i agree if they spun out youtube -- >> those aren't part of the problem. >> right. they are looking to dismantle where the meat of the monopoly

is. >> jim cramer called it a state-sponsored destruction of capital. i'm quoting from jim. i agree with tim on this one, and we've talked about it. there was a line in the original "wall street," the breakup value is higher, and the breakup value is -- >> the movie. >> why are we wrecking that company? >> because it's wreckable. we'll put that on youtube, as well. you think about netflix, i think, is a $315 billion market cap. you could make an argument that youtube might be more valuable than that. and they're not getting rewarded for it, google, right now, with youtube in there. so, i'm -- i understand why the stock sold off on the back of this, but if you really think about it, i mean, this is probably a bullish thing for shareholders, and, by the way, the stock is still too cheap. though it's, what, 190 was the recent high down to 160 now, but if you look at the analysts, i think the lowest price target that i could find is 185, most are north of 200. just on valuation alone, i think you like the stock. >> yeah, i think, you know, we're looking far into the

future, as karen said, in terms of the breakup. there's an appellate process that's going to take years. the initial rules won't even be for another year. i think the agreements seem to be the low-hanging fruit. we're looking at exploring vehicles that could lead to a non-monopolistic framework. does that really hurt google? now we're looking at the ux experience, where they are preferencing google search. having a layout where you're able to make a choice, i would argue that based on merit, google still probably prevails, because there's such customer stickiness. the real concern for me is the a.i. going forward. you know, for these large language models, you need all this data, and if that's being siphoned away and being stored within google, that gives the incumbent somewhat of an advantage. if that then is dispersed more evenly or justly or whatever term you want to use, then i do think there is a real threat to the next generation of a.i.-related tools. >> it is shaking out in terms

of, you go to that a.i. summary and you don't click through and those sites, that would normally benefit from the traffic from the click through and their ad rates are solid, are being dinged because the click throughs don't go. so, there's this really interesting sort of period here where we're trying to figure this out, and if companies were able to say, no, you're not going to cite my stuff, because we want users, we want searchers to actually look for my stuff on my website, so i get the click-through, i mean, this is something that still needs to be sorted at this point. >> yeah, and display of search is one of the big things they're going after. so, i guess -- we don't know. setting up going into earnings, let's go there, because we've got a new cfo, there's some focus on expense management there's some dynamic in terms of where the company actually may continue to break down that core business, but in terms of the look forward, i mean, i think they're going to deliver on, you know, where guidance is and possibly even improve upon it. and if it gets you to nine bucks

a share, this stock is trading at 18 times right now. it's cheap. >> this is not only a gemini issue. >> no. it's across the board. >> yeah, for all of them. so, i mean, this is much more of a horse race than search right now, with how many players and who has share -- at the moment. >> at the moment. though the justice department believes, no, they've got a leg up, because they're dominant in traditional search so they will be dominate in a.i. search, yet, we debate that on a nightly basis, who is in the front in terms of the race for a.i. search. >> right. nvidia. >> bottom line. meantime, the ten-year treasury yield hitting its highest level until ten weeks. this as investors await for tomorrow's cpi print. let's bring in andy con stand. great to have you with us. i think the last time we speak to you was certainly before the last fed meeting, so, a lot has sort of changed in market psychology. what do you make of what we've

seen so far? >> yeah, since jackson hole, through the fomc meeting and even after that, the markets were concerned about the labor market, the fed was concerned about the labor market. the fed was concerned about overall gdpsatisfied that inflation was on the way to returning to target. and all that changed over the last couple of weeks. in particular, it started with, well, obviously, the september payroll data was a big surprise, on the upside, in terms of how strong the labor market was. but prior to that, the gross domestic income, gdi, which is the mirror image of gdp, had been significantly weaker than the gdp was, which was a concern that it was leading the gdp down, and the conditions were worse. that got completely revised away, and chairman powell at the -- at his appearance

recently, highlighted this, and said it removed some of the downside risk to the economy that the fed was worried about. and he then directed the audience to look at the s.e.p., which has two more cuts of 25 basis points in it, trying to walk back what at that time was the expectation of at least one 50-basis point cut, and possibly two. and today, we're at less than two cuts. it's been a big change, driven by the gdp and the labor market. both of those two things, along with core pce, are what the s.e.p. dot plot uses. it just mechanically uses it through their reaction function, to determine what they're target policy rate is. two of the three things are now well above what they projected, and just a few weeks ago, the unemployment rate is at 4.05, and the -- and they had

projected 4.4, and there are only two more reports between now and then. and the gdp now is priced at 3.2%, and they had projected 2%. so, it's going to require a very, very icy cold cpi number, and then subsequent weakness in jobs and gdp for them to get anywhere near their s.e.p. projection. so, it's possible that even fewer -- a pause gets priced into markets. >> andy, it's karen. thanks for being on. so, i know you've been in the higher for longer for awhile, which this seems to dovetail with that. do you think the equity markets are just too optimistic for 2025 cuts? >> well, i mean, i think there's two questions on equities. one, will the earnings, which have -- are elevated growth rates expected of 12 % to 13% fr the next two years, are those going to be realized?

they could be. in fact, a stronger economy, with even -- with above target inflation, gets them closer to those earnings. so, that's good. higher for longer is good for equities and earnings come in well. it is valuation that gets hit when long-term bond yields start to rise, and so are valuations cheap? 22ish forward looking guidance on elevated earnings doesn't seem cheap to me, but until -- so, it's a question. now, will the fed's -- is what is keeping multiples high, the expectation of significant rate cuts, or is it something else? and that will be seen. >> andy, thank you. always great to speak with you. a andy kconstan of damp spring. the other part of that, the whole sort of thinking about valuations, where they are now, is, if you believe that ten-year yields are rising, we've seen this before, so, it could be that the markets have sort of

digested this and accepted this level of rates, have become -- >> these aren't long-term rates where the ten-year is is where it belongs, i don't know. >> yeah, so, maybe valuations are fine where they are in light of that? >> well, the optimists, and the bulls will say, maybe correctly, by the way, that rates are going higher because the economy is on steady footing. the employment rate probably sits around 4.2, 4.3 for awhile. and rates can go higher in this environment. the other is stan druckenmiller, what he thought a week or so ago, 15% to 20% of his portfolio is short bonds, and he said he was embarrassed he wasn't short more, given all the issuance coming out over the next couple of years. right now, the market is looking at it through the optimistic l lens. >> are you in that camp? >> are you embarrassed? >> i'm embarrassed by a lot of things, but not his camp. >> bonawyn? >> it seems that we're -- monetary policy is too

restrictive, but if the argument is that gdp is exceeding expectations and possibly dragging up inflation expectations, well, are we nearly as restrictive and does it make sense for us to be essentially pricing in the rate cuts that we had as of, let's call it three, four weeks ago? i think he makes a very compelling argument in terms of s&p multiples, but we've seen the s&p fly in the face of that argument for the better part of 18 months now. >> with a poor auction today, what andy didn't spend a lot of time -- he talk ed about an economy that has driven rates a reason to move back to where they are. geopo geopolitics, we had a bad action, so, we haven't really addressed some of the things, i think, in where rates are that guy's talking about, or stan is talking about, and andy's talked about so, i do think that's a big deal. i think the technical component of issuance and credit worthiness, at some point, this is a situation where the ratings agencies will come in. i know we're the most attractive person in an unattractive move

or something, i'm trying to be really careful how i do this. you can't really do this well anymore without getting someone upset with you, but i think we know what i'm saying. u.s. is always going to be a flight to quality. even during a time when u.s. isn't all that impressive, it's still a flight to quality. >> best houses -- >> you got to save me next time. >> actually offending. >> tim picked most attractive in a room full of unattractive -- >> i don't know how we feel about that. your positioning in bonds? >> i'm a little bit short bonds, not a lot. coming up, boeing pulling its contract off er as deal tals break down. what it means for production. and we continue to watch the progress of hurricane milton as it closes in on florida's west coast. the latest on the storm and how millions of americans are entrepreneuring. don't go anywhere. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work.

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welcome back to "fast money." boeing shares trading near two-year lows after the plane maker withdrew its latest contract offer to its striking machinists. the company say gt further negotiations, quote, do not make sense at this point. phil lebeau is following the story, joining us now on what's next. phil? >> melissa, we're waiting to see what's next. and i'm not optimistic we're going to hear any kind of an

update any time soon, after the report last night, or the message last night, from both boeing and the machine ist unio. here's where things stand almost one month into this machinist strike. no talks are scheduled for the remainder of this week. now, that could change. they could decide to go back to the bargaining table tomorrow or friday, but none are scheduled at this point. the machinists have say, look, there's been no progress in terms of the offer coming from the company. boeing easterly kwidty increasingly is in focus. s&p yesterday afternoon, and we talked about it, you talked about it on the show, s&p estimates that boeing's impact, the cost of this strike, $1 billion per month. so, when you look at shares of boeing, going back to the start of the strike, on september 13th, we're really starting to see the impact now, as it hits a 52-week low. the liquidity, they ended the second quarter with $12.6 billion in liquidity. the threshold that they have generally talked about, and most believe they don't want to go below is $10 billion.

raises the question, all right, well, if they do a capital raise, what is it? possible equity raise of $10 billion to $15 billion has been throw out there. nothing has been finalized. shares of boeing this year, we should point out that there are more than a few reports out saying that the company has at least begun initial conversations with bankers about how to set up a capital raise. that's obvious. you can't just call the bankers and wait until the last minute, melissa. you know that they're putting the pieces in place in order to raise equity at some point. the question is, when do they pull the trigger? because clearly, this strike shows no sign of ending. >> no. phil, thank you. phil lebeau with the very latest on the boeing strike. phil mentioned the s&p estimate, $1 billion per month. i think it was, yes, in terms of the cost of the strike. ubs also had its own estimate, about a month ago, saying that a one to two-month strike would be a $4 billion hit to free cash flow, so, they're really feeling

the squeeze at this point. >> november 25th, 1980, in louisiana, tim, i remember t this -- >> no mas. >> you have to say, at a certain point, i've been trying to make the bullish case for boeing for a long time -- >> thrown in the towel. given up. >> a little bit. >> abandon ship. >> bob bu by duran, against sug ray. but bobby duran did come back. he picked himself up off the mat. and that's the question here. even if they do a $10 billion equity raise, the question is, where does that leave you? it buys them time. they're going to get through this. equality as beaten up, in, probably more so than you on this one, but -- at this point, this isn't the time to sell it. the downgrade in liquidity crisis is something that we have not seen and i think some of this is posturing. >> how do they do a $5 billion, $10 billion raise -- probably more than $10 billion, without having clarity on the strike situation? >> like, what are they selling?

>> kind of. you know, do you want to walk right into that? do you want to buy equity right into that? >> right. that's true. >> but they have a price lower than here. >> that's trader talk, meaning at a steep discount to its current price. the more you know. >> thank you. >> the more you know, rainbow. >> doesn't sound -- >> you touched this, bonawyn? >> i have touched it. >> and how did that feel? >> my fingertips are a bit singed. >> burned? >> yeah. like guy, i've been trying to make the bullish case. i think long-term, there, but i still think the opportunity cost is too high. i would wait before digging in for more. >> all right. coming up, some "fast money" movers from today's session. why delta and gm are among the names catching our attention. and as hurricane milton nears landfall, the latest on the storm and how millions are preparing. all the details next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." you're looking at a live shot of st. petersburg, florida, with hurricane milton just hours away from making landfall. bill karins is with us now. >> we've had some minor changes. we had a wobble that's gotten

the attention of all the people in tampa bay. any significant wobble to the north makes the storm surge worse there, but as we watch the storm, it's now looks like it's going to make landfall around sarasota, possibly to bradenton. it's a couple hours earlier now. landfall could be occurring as we head through about 9:00 p.m. to maybe midnight or so. let me give you a zoomed in track and show you where the storm is going to be going. you will see as we track the storm up through the tampa bay area, then across, just south of that i-4 corridor. that's where we're going to see the heaviest wind. that's where we're going to see the strongest rain, and that's where we have a big threat tonight of flash flooding. as far as storm surge, we're going to be focusing on what's going to be happening sarasota southward. we could deal with 9 to 13 feet, you heard up to 15 feet, but because the max winds have been knocked down a little bit, earlier than we're thinking lan landfall, that's knocked down the potential for the max surge

a little bit. the weaker the storm can get before landfall the next couple hours, the better, but that storm surge is already baked in. we already have water on the roads in places, naples, fort myers, that surge has reached 3 to 5 feet. as that eye moves onshore, especially around sarasota to venice, florida, that's the location that we can get that 9 to 13-foot surge, with wave action on top of it. that's where we could have the destruction, especially the homes on the first floor. guys, we also today have had 17 tornadoes across florida, and that threat will continue over the next couple hours, too, so, as with every major hurricane, there's going to be multiple life threatening assets of it, and you can see a tornado there that we've had, numerous, this was on the east side of florida, too, in many cases, around west palm beach. these weren't small tornadoes, either. a few were actually what we call wedge or pretty big tornadoes. >> all right, bill, thank you. bill karins. meantime, stocks rallying today with the dow jumping more

than 400 points. the s&p hitting another all-time high, and the nasdaq climbing. shares of delta higher ahead of its earnings report tomorrow morning. the airline managing hundreds of flight cancellations and moving several planes out of hurricane milton's path. and shares of gm higher on the back of yesterday's analyst meeting. reaction generally bullish on their future ev plans. what do we think here? >> i'll go to delta first, we talk about this. this has been in a very defined range the last couple years, between 35 on the low end, 52, which is where we are on the higher end. you have to trade the stock. he talks about it being a trading sector, that's exactly right. so, at these levels, despite the fact that it's the best airline out there, these are -- last two years, this is where you take profits, not to add to longs. coming up, a look at my new cnbc investigative documentary, the black market of obesity drugs. an in depth look into the counterfeiting of the widely

popular weight loss drugs is next. plus, china stocks dropping again. but options traders could be betting on a big move higher in one levered etf. the details on that trade, when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." i spent the last several months exploring how counterfeit versions of ozempic and other popular weight loss drugs are being actively sold online, and also illegally shipped from other countries into the united states. it's a worldwide problem for the pharmaceutical industry. and it poses serious health risks. here's a look at part of our cnbc investigation. ♪ not far from the majestic rocky mountains in boulder, colorado, is an ordinary suburban neighborhood, a quiet, tree-lined street, and this modest light gray home. not the kind of place you'd imagine an investigation into black market ozempic would lead. but it did.

our look into counterfeit weight loss drugs started with purchasing ozempic online from laver beauty, a company we thought was based in colorado. what we found was that it's part of an international marketplace where criminals are either brazenly counterfeiting these drugs, or buying the real thing overseas on the cheap and illegally shipping them to the u.s. to turn a profit. the main targets, novo nordisk's diabetes drug ozempic, as well as its obesity drug, wegovy. and eli lilly's mounjaro and zepbound. all in a class of wildly popular weight loss drugs known as glp-1s. the ozempic we brought from laver beauty cost $219, while real ozempic goes for nearly $1,000 for a month's supply. the company's website in corporate documents claim the operation is located in boulder, colorado. but the ozempic we ordered from

laver beauty was shipped via dhl from this office building in china, off an elevator and behind this unmarked door, right to us at cnbc headquarters in new jersey. let's open it up and see what we have. plain cardboard box. it doesn't appear to have any refrigeration. though it's supposed to be refrigerated. this might have been a refrigeration pact. it dud say ozempic on it, 1 milli milligram. and here's the pen. looks like the real thing. let's see what's inside. was this real ozempic diverted to the u.s. or a fake? and why did it come from china, when the company has a colorado address? we'll answer that question, but first, our investigation brought us to the uk, where hundreds of counterfeit ozempic pens have been seized. it's hard to tell what's real and what's not. the fakes are that good.

>> so, would you like to have a guess which one is the genuine and which one is the fake? this one is real. the other one with the purplish pen isn't. >> it is to us a very crude copy, not sophisticated, but it's enough to make people who don't have this lever of knowledge and don't have the comparison to make inject this into themselves and cause themselves significant harm. >> reporter: a total of 869 counterfeit ozempic pens were seized. they're actually relabeled insulin pens. >> these are completely counterfeit products, manufactured somewhere, we don't know exactly where. and made so look very much like ozempic pens. >> now, back to what we bought online. novo nordisk says the ozempic we received appears to be diverted legitimate product, and was produced for and distributed to the chinese market during late '23 and early '24. therefore, it would be unauthorized, unapproved for the u.s. market.

the company went on to state that it cannot confirm the sterility, which may present an increased risk of infection for patients that use the counterfeit product. still, one question remained. what is the connection between this house, listed on the laver beauty website, and this office in china? the homeowners told us they have no connection to the chinese ozempic seller at all. laver beauty did not respond to our request for comment. the day after we sent that request, the colorado address was scrubbed from the website. and as far as that address in boulder, colorado, the laver sales representative told me that it was the previous address of their u.s. warehouse. looks very residential, though. law enforcement sources tell us that the ozempic we received from china is connected to an ongoing federal investigation into ozempic packages being shipped into the united states. by the way, you can get the full investigation by scanning the qr code on the screen with your phone, or by going to

cnbc.com/ozempicunderworld. there's so much in the investigation we didn't get to. we visited eli lilly labs and they told us about the fakes they've seen. mounjaro pens that look the same, they painted the top again, they repackage, they made a box that looks exactly like the mounjaro box. novo nordisk told us that some of the equipment that the counterfeiters use, particularly in turkey, which is an epicenter of the counterfeit drug trade, they source the equipment from the same manufacturers that novo nordisk uses to make their packaging. so, they are that good. >> so how would you know? let's say you go to any site -- how would you possibly no? >> you have to know that it is not legal to sell these drugs online. it is outside of the supply chain and if you are getting it by mail, it is not right, because they cannot guarantee the sterility. you don't know what conditions -- i got that package of ozempic, even though it's real, i don't know how long it's been out of refrigeration, it could have been sitting in a

warehouse, and to boot, that package, the same pen could have been shipped to the united states, intercepted, the u.s. right now doesn't have the power to destroy the pens because they're categorized as medical devices, they are sent back to sender, who can resell that same pen into the u.s. >> that shipment you opened, it was intended for the chinese market and was legitimate for the chinese market. >> it was legitimate. that's part of it. you know, the list prices here in the u.s. are so high, people are desperate, they go online, in other countries, the prices, the list prices are much lower. in china, ozempic costs less than $100 for a month's supply. so, if you obtain it, even legally in china, you can sell it at a profit. if you steal it, the profit is even bigger. >> wasn't it a year old? >> it was meant to be sold in the -- in late '23 and '24 for the chinese market, yeah. so -- >> fascinating. >> i love when mel does invest investigations. fantastic. >> what do you mean -- >> nobody's fooling her.

>> nobody's pulling the wool over her eyes. all right, again, the full investigation online, cnbc.com. coming up, a levered bet on a huge turnaround for china. how one options trader is playing stimulus hopes for the world's second largest economy next. plus, all eyes on tesla, the ev heavyweight set to unveil its roe botaxi to the world. will the big reveal be enough to snap the stock out of its october funk? we'll put the pedal to the metal with one of tesla's most bullish with one of tesla's most bullish analysts, right after this. this is happening people. where there are so few certainties... (laughing) look around you. you deserve to know. as we navigate a future unknown. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time. ah, these bills are crazy. she

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welcome back to "fast money." china's slide continuing today. the kweb and fxi taking another leg lower, even as the pboc is expected to announce a new round of stimulus measures this weekend. one options trader making a bet that the announcement will lead to a major bounce. mike khouw joins us with the action. hey, mike. >> yeah, so, we're taking a look at the etf chau. this is the two-x levers csi 300 etf. two x the a shares. this traded more than five times its daily options volume. the busiest contracts were the october regular way 19 strike calls that expire next friday.

we saw buyers of those paying about $1.12 a contract on average. 4,700 contracts that were traded were institutional blocks that took place this morning. they are making bets that chau could be hundred more than 13% next year. that would represent an increase of 6.5% in the underlying index. >> tim, what did you make of the announcement that there would be a saturday press conference, 10:00 a.m. local time, to announce measures? >> it certainly gave a little bounce to that world today. and again, there's been a pretty -- obviously, noticeable pullback. if you're looking at alibaba, it's 63% off the lows that were early september lows. the dynamic on expecting something after the golden week that -- you know, just didn't happen, i do think that there will be announcements. i think people are more negative on the -- the, you know, the followthrough here, and i think most assessments i have of this is, it's a trading call. i don't think it's a trading

call, just because i think a lot of the companies that are having the rallies here fundamentally needed a catalyst to actually drive investment. and it goes to the casinos, the luxury players, and i think alibaba. alibaba is not a macro call on china. it's a macro call on corporate governance. >> i think some of the skepticism essentially resolved around low credit demand. you're looking at the stimulus measures that are being taken, but how is this going to flow into the economy and lead to further lending and further investment? and i think that is really the crux of the argument. even when this was announced in late september, there was going to be additional follow, and the opaqueness around that is what has led people to look to take profits in the short-term, but i'm with the guys, if there is stimulus, it's to the upside. >> tim was selling baba calls, which proved to be a great move, and it's going to continue to be right. the baba pull-back makes sense.

and i think as karen will probably tell you, you're l looking for places to re-enter or build a long position and you are pretty close here. >> exactly. yes. i would like to add some more alibaba, right around in here. i think -- so, right now, i have alibaba, kweb and fxi, but i'd like to add more babb. coming up, tesla's robotaxi event tomorrow and gene munster is here to talk about. hey, gene. more "fast money" in two.

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welcome back to "fast money." over the past decade, ceo elon musk has sold investors on this idea that tesla vehicles will one day be self-driving. now today, those promises may finally be fulfilled, when the company unveils its robotaxi at its event in los angeles. "fast money" friend gene munster joins us now on-set. gene is actually on the way to the robotaxi event. so, you are passing through. thank you for joining us, gene. and you are fully expecting to get in a robotaxi and get driven around tomorrow? >> yeah, puts the odds at that above 90%, that we'll get a

chance to do that. it's going to be in a contained environment, so, keep in mind, back in 2018 at their autonomy day, they took a model 3 and put it on highway 101 in san francisco, so, the idea of them being able to move around autonomously in a controlled environment is nothing new. i think what i'm focused in on is, you know what's the form factor like, is this a two-person, a four-person vehicle? and then, the all-important question around timing of the vehicle, because for them to talk about something is very different unanimous the substance of actually seeing these products in the market. >> he talked about it a lot. promised it a lot. >> 21 times, in fact, over the past decade. >> and the average promise in terms of time frame is two years from that moment that he talked about it. >> from that moment. >> and that moment still has not come. and so tomorrow, you think it's going to be two years again, which would be -- that means nothing to me. >> i think that he's going to see something that's a little bit longer than under two years, i think he'll say that by the end of '25, that they're going to be rolling out some of the robotaxis in some select cities.

that's an approach that tesla hasn't taken. they've kind of had this idea of getting the cars on the market, but they could take a similar approach to waymo, and also, i think, another piece to the conversation around the timing, so, again, late 2025, i think they'll have some form of robotaxi service. another aspect to this is, i his they may actually talk about a couple other vehicles, more affordable tesla, and i think a van, a passenger van for autonomy, six, ten people in a vehicle. >> so, gene, first of all, great to have you in the house. been a long time. so, what about -- what is the business model or the robotaxi? how much do you think it's worth? how is it going to work? >> so, if you think about the total profit of tesla, i think that ultimately, 20% of this could come from the ride hailing network. there's a lot of factors that play into that, i think that's just in the u.s. if they can get around 50% share. so, of course, uber dominates that today, but i think if you look at, if they eventually have

this as a service, where they charge 20% less than a typical uber ride, they take a 15% cut, it can add -- it's basically fuhr pure margin, so, i think this can be -- material lever is 20% addition. i don't this this is going to triple tesla's business, but i think it's going to be material piece to it. >> how do you handicap the stock? it's probably rallied, i don't know, over 100% from the lows in the spring. so, it's volatile stock, 260 has been resistance now, december, july, and then recently. is it ever going to get to a level where it starts doing what it's supposed to do, like a lot of these other stocks have done? >> so, for this week, i actually expect the stock to be done after the event, because i mentioned the all-important timing question. i don't think investors are going to leave with a ton of substance or excitement around that. if you look at the trajectory of where they're going, ultimately, i think that growth rates can go from, call it 7%, in the most recent september quarter, i

think they can get back in the 20%, 25% growth rate. if you put a multiple on this, i think this is a service similar to apple. you can build a case for the next couple of years for this to be a 40% -- stock to be 40% higher, so, i think it will continue to make new highs. >> how do you factor in the two new vehicles that you are expecting, and the impact on margins? because that could be a real setback for investors in terms of how they're comparing margins to oems, because they've set that as a mark, we're not going to get there. >> the key is affordability. that's a word that elon used on the last call, talking about the next model. it's a little bit ambiguous, but it has an impact on margins. so, if that vehicle is actually a stripped down model 3, which they're doing in mexico, that probably is actually going to be okay with margins, because they have the manufacturing in infrastructure in place. if it's building a whole new factory for a new -- entirely new, more affordable model 2,

then it probably continues to pressure margins. i think the margin anxiety for investors is -- i think that's kind of basing right now. i think the focus is shifting more to delivery growth. >> all right. gene, great to see you in person. have fun at the robotaxi event. >> thank you. >> legend. >> i bet he signed the disclaimer to get into one of those things, so, we'll hope for the -- >> i'm feeling good. >> it will be fine. bonawyn, how do you trade tesla? >> you know, i think it's -- i think i'm more of a sell the news type of situation. i think these tend to build up a lot of hoop la, i don't want to be on the other side of gene's call here, but i think there's a large following here that kind of -- it's a evangelical type of draw, and i just don't think i'm buying into that right now. >> same. yeah. i don't have a long-term -- i've never gotten comfortable with the valuation. >> yeah. all right, up next, final trades.

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time now for the final trade. tim seymour? >> paypal, a 20-month high, and upgrade today. and i think it's going higher. >> karen? >> yes, so, i have two toes in, in the china trade, i want to add another, so, hopefully tomorrow, baba will trade down and i'll be buying it. >> bonawyn? >> salesforce has had a strong run. sale i expect it to take a breather. profits here. >> guy? >> shoutout to a "fast money" original, who is no longer here with us at the nasdaq, but

always with us in spirit, brad ruben, whose birthday is today. good-looking man. >> stunning. >> stunning. >> where is big brad? where did he go? >> he's blushing out there somebody. >> he works at nbc. international business machines, melissa. >> very good. thank you for watching my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to "cramerica." i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. we have so many villains in this country we