a full house on "closing bell" at 3:00 today. cameron dawson will be here. let's do some "final trades." kev, what you got? >> nvidia. they've been here for three days in new york for a road show, investors like what they see. >> that's clear. liz? >> health care. i've used it recently and using it again. it does well in a lot of different environments right now. so not overly valued. >> josh brown? >> sams a samsara. >> good stuff. thanks, everybody. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead this hour. inflation is a little hotter, jobless claims are a little

higher, and the data is getting more distorted. we are starting to see the impact from storms and strikes, and our economist says the fed could defer a rate cut because of it. and today's data giving investors more reason to fade an aggressive fed. we'll look at where the opportunities are and aren't right now. tesla's long-awaited robo taxi event is finally happening tonight, and our analyst says believe the hype. it will move the stock. he's here with how much upside he sees ahead. the shares are nchanged today, though. let's go over to steve liesman before we get into the markets with some headlines from the fed for us. hi, steve. >> hey, good morning -- good afternoon, kelly. the atlanta fed president looks like the interview with "the wall street journal" making some comments that are moving around future markets, as well as the stock market. he's saying it's okay to skip a

cut this year after today's data. he's saying he's open to the idea of not moving if the data come in as i expect. that's interesting enough right there. so, you can see the market, if you look at the fed funds futures now, giving a little more weight to the idea of a skip, it's now trading at an 83% probability of a 25 in november, and the 17% probability of no change at all. that's towards the higher side. it's been higher than that. but then look at the october 25 fed funds contract. that's what's been happening, is over time here with the data that's been stronger, with some of the commentary that's come out in yesterday's minutes we can talk about in a second, increasingly they're taking out easing on the back end of all this. that's about -- you can see maybe 50 or 60, almost 70 basis points now have been baked out of the future in terms of how

much cutting the fed will do. so we're watching this. yesterday we learned maybe there are a few hawkier fed officials than we thought there were. kelly? >> all right, steve, thank you. we're just looking at the market reaction here as investors digest this interview hitting the wires. steve liesman there. dom chu is standing by with more on that. >> just to give you an idea, the markets are shifting around a little bit, but largely stable in the wake of some of those headlines. we were down about 11 points in the s&p before the headlines came out. we're pretty much down 11 points. the dow stands at 110 points to the downside. the s&p is at 5781, down about 0.2 of 1%. trading range was a plus three at the highs and down 27 at the lows. so, again, shifting in the middle of that trading range. the nasdaq just about flat on the session. we'll just highlight this. if you want to look at the rates picture through the lens of etfs

rather than the bonds, prices and yields themselves, this is the i-shares basically long data treasuries etf. it's down about 0.75 of a point today. we are now trading below that level, as you can see here. we are down roughly 8% from the highs we have seen recently. that means bond prices falling, yields rising, leading to a 4.12% yield. we have seen a decent-sized down move in this treasury etf over the course of the last couple of weeks, something to keep a close eye on. and kelly, i know you're like this. on "power lunch," we'll go through a trade that one trader thinks is a way to capitalize on some of that non-movement in fed funds futures. and solar stocks, really down on the session today due to analyst

action, specifically on first solar. back to you. >> dom, thank you very much. one of my next guests called that bostic headline. joining us is diane swan, a chief economist. and steve liesman is standing by, as well. diane, you thought they might skip here. >> well, i think it's a possibility, and i'm not at all surprised that raphael bostic has been a more hawkish member of the fed. we know that chair powell tried to corral them, but we expected two quarter point cuts, the market was ahead of that. we still expect two quarter point cuts, but the situation now is just -- you know, highly noisy to put it in the very least. we have disruptions due to the hurricanes that's cs that could prices, and we have seen layoffs

due to the hurricanes in north carolina in particular pick up, showing up in the unemployment claims. the october employment report which kovs out november 1st right before the election is now set up to be really, really weak, because we also have the strike in the aerospace industry and spillover effects to suppliers, also holding down those numbers. we know after major hurricanes, we tend to see somewhat weaker payrolls in the month following that. we're also going to see, because of the timing of this, the number of workers who are unable to work due to bad weather. likely hitting the record in the month of september, the previous record was 1.9 million in 1996, january when a blizzard hit the east coast, including washington, d.c. the second largest record was right after katrina, and i think that's where we're at right now, given the number of people who were asked to evacuate or shelter in place. a lot of that shutdown is going

to be reflected in the unemployment report and could show up in a rise in the unemployment rate, much like so the fed will get to the two cuts, but not more. the market was ahead of them, and you do see that hesitation, which is where the debate should be. >> steve, it makes me think that perhaps the labor market data take a back seat to inflation. i think the cpi today becomes more interesting. we know a natural disaster is not going to be disinflationary in the near term. the point is, if jobless claims go up and the payrolls disappoint, normally you build in a stronger fed reaction, but it coulds like we're not going to do that this time. >> i don't think the fed's going to tolerate higher inflation, but, again, if it's related to the hurricane, the fed is going to look through that. and i think it's going to look

through the strike data and the weakness in the employment report. it's going to be really hard to tease out the trend, given all the distortions that are coming our way. there's some calculations that were done. a lot of the rise in the jobless claims today was related to the boeing strike, as well as the states that were hit by helene. now you have milton coming along. our hearts go out to all the people affected by that. but one thing, diane is so nice. she says huerding cats. i was thinking about other fed officials i've seen to see if their arms were in a sling, because it looked like there was arm twisting going on at the last meeting. so diane is very nice, but i think there was some arm twisting going on. when you have a statement in the minutes that says, some wanted to do 25, and a few, i guess, would have gone along with it if that was what was on the table.

you know, so they wanted to start big, 50, and i guess now the thinking is, it's going to be meeting by meeting. i still think the fed has some -- it could take off the top and still be okay here, without losing the fight against inflation. we had williams say today that is still going to be restrictive after it takes off additional -- after additional rate cuts. >> but diane, it's going to be a bit odd for the next month or so to watch weaker data not necessarily met with a stronger fed reaction function in terms of rate cuts. i think that it's going to be interesting, with the election coming up, as well. >> it's really -- it is, you know, couldn't be worse timing coming up to the election with all this noise but it is noise, and the noise is deafening, but the fed will look through some of that. what is encourage right now is that we have seen big supply chain disruptions, and those

supply chain disruptions prior to the hurricanes not show up as increases in prices and passed through like we had seen during the pandemic. that was an extraordinary period, but we have seen companies be much more nimble and actually consumers push back much more. the combination of the two with productivity growth means we have not seen the kind of paths that we did earlier in the recovery. that's the good news. but the fed's going to be watching that very closely, because any sort of sticky thst they see is even -- they're going to look at one of the things that are hurricane related, what aren't. that will be tough to tease out. i was encouraged by one thing, and that is shelter costs came down, slowed down quite a bit. but in the month, we have to see if that's sustained. that is one area that also could get some upward pressure, of course, by the hurricane. everything from hotel room rates to rents.

>> absolutely. the markets, they have pushed the ten-year back up to 4.11. we have stocks wobbling towards session lows as well, even as we talk about normally you would skip a november cut, because the economy is doing well. so for now, we'll leave it there. appreciate your time, today. diane, steve. 30-year bonds went up for auction, that would be contributing to the bond moves, as well. rick santelli brings us that news. >> well, it isn't contributing to the news, it's making the news even more confusing. this was a terrific auction, and very much like yesterday's ten. so 22 billion reopened 30-year bonds. i gave it an a-minus. for the same reasons as yesterday. we had an all-time historic percentage for indirect bidders. 80.5. nothing even near it in the last 23 years, and if you go back further than that, the numbers are much smaller than that. but you saw the direct bidders, the smallest in six years.

just like yesterday. but if you combine direct or indirect, it's better than ten auction average. there's a lot of disinterest based on some of these direct bidders, some of the mutual and insurance companies domestically, but there definitely seems to be some foreign central bank activity. to cut to the quick here, the yield was 4.389, well below the one issued market, lower yield, higher price, the government's the seller. it was just a great auction. why do yields go up? whether you look at an intraday chart, yields are flying. ed charts starting on october 1st, and whether you're looking at 10s or 30s, these treasury yields, if you look at october 1st to every day after that, yields closed higher. like the ten-year, this is the seventh consecutive session we have traded higher than yesterday's high yield. these are big events. you could talk about bostic headlines, of course, what the

fed does and says in these meetings will move markets. but really, in my opinion, the fed iscopying the homework of the markets. the markets have been clear for the entire month of october that, for whatever reason, there's a variety of reasons we could choose from, interest rates are going up, and they're going up almost despite the data, despite the strength in the auction, they're going up. we could talk about weather and hurricanes and yes, that's going to bring some inflation. it's always something, isn't it? it seems to me that if you synthesize today and jobless claims are probably higher than they shown for all the issues we have covered. but cpi, cpi definitely wasn't cool, and it definitely wasn't a push. it was warmer, and in many ways, hotter than expectations. the fed hass an issue here. the markets are moving in a quite clear direction, and the fed's scrambling to make sense of that and not look like they have egg on their face. >> well, given that we're all

scrambling as well, we can give them some space for that. >> you can. i don't know that i will. let's see what steve widing thinks. he was already seeing reasons for investors to fade an aggressive fed. so what do you make of the market's reaction here and the possibility they might do a skip? >> this is bad data. you had a little more inflation, you had some weakness in the labor market with the jobless claims. honestly, when you talk about the hurricanes, you know, distorted prices is really not a good reason to change monetary policy. but year-to-date, output in the economy is up about 3%. gdp, tracking data. i think the labor market market is still slowing. we can have a weak reading in august, a strong reading in september. but you can see we're sub-200,000 in the last 12

months on afternoon, and there is probably more slowing to go. 2.4% inflation, i think it's come off a lot. these are mini cycles we're having. >> everything you're saying sounds really good. and now what? >> look, it's like we're having mini cycles, where we go and say now that they have cut 50, we have an aggressive fed, we have the most perfect situation in the world. earnings go up, prices are going down, and we asked a little too much of the data. so we backed it up, we're about 50 basis points up across the treasury yield curve. >> yet the s&p yesterday was at record highs. >> put that aside. we are at record highs for u.s. corporate profits, and we're going to have more record highs for u.s. corporate profits into the coming year. in fact, more industries are growing their profits. we have only begun a broadening out. >> so you would be buying any

pullbacks we have, and again, let's back up for a second. we have a fed member saying that they're open to skipping a cut in november. at the same time that the macro data is wobbling a little bit, but you -- in other words, jobless claims go up, we should focus on inflation is still sticky? >> these are mini cycles. figuring out exactly the pace of easing in the coming year, these expectations are highly erratic, how many cuts we're going to get. but the context is most important. if the economy is growing, if profits are growing, it will mean a lot more to the equity market. you have to say, though, the context that we gave you, that we have been able to slow inflation, being able to grow profits and get a rate cut, that's why stocks are up more than 20% for the last two years, and it's not going to be that easy. >> a lot of people say the third year of a bull market is a

tougher year. but if corporate profits keep growing, that is the best reason to maintain exposure to the equity market. >> the reason they can grow, if we look at the year behind us, few companies grow their profits. we did really well in the labor market. now we're doing better on the profit front. again, it won't be like plus 40% gain, but it will be something. >> where are the biggest opportunities you see in the next six months' time or so, whether in the u.s. in specific sectors or even international? >> i would say that we're at an interesting juncture, where knowing what u.s. policy will do. whether or not we're going to be able to continue these rate cuts, or are we going to have domestic tax cuts, tariffs, and we sway away from this easing. that's really important to non-u.s. markets. we're taking more of our risks in u.s. dollar and equity markets on a global basis,

because we sit at this juncture. but we have to be aware. if we are going to go down the route where we have more rate cuts, the answer will depend on what we're going to do on the tax and spending front, post u.s. election. >> you think that will make a big difference? >> it will to international markets. what we have seen with the two candidates, their different prospects have evolved. the bigger effect is outside of the u.s. market. >> has it really? because of the impact on china with tariffs and other markets? china is doing so well right now. let me qualify the china statement. the chinese stock market has had a good couple of weeks. >> yeah. i think you can see how fast markets can move on policy expectations. that can happen again post, you know, the u.s. election. that once you get some clarity, things will change. we were just talking offset. we haven't had an up october in the u.s. stock market in an election year since 2004. we were up in november,

december, just the relief as we knew what was going to go on in every election year with exception to 2008 when we had bigger problems. so there's a lot of apprehension here. there's no problem with increasing the quality of your portfolio, to go into companies with better dividend performance and better balance sheets. those stocks have lagged behind and there's no good reason for that. >> steve, thank you for coming in. we have a news alert out of the justice department. eamon? >> the doj is announcing a settlement agreement of $3 fwl with td bank. td bank had pleaded guilty today related to money laundering by drug cartels and violations of the bank's secrecy act. this is treasury's largest settlement with a bank.

one point we just heard is this is the first bank in history to plead guilty to committing money laundering. that's a fascinating stat there. this payment overall will include $1.3 billion imposed by the financial crimes enforcement network, as well as payments to other government agencies. it will also include a three-year monitoring program for td bank. the u.s. government says in recent years, td bank just didn't automatically monitor 92% of total transaction volume, or about $18.3 trillion in transaction activity. and the government says the bank did this to keep costs down, requiring the budget not increase year over year for nearly a decade. those policies, they say, led to hundreds of millions in criminal money laundering inside the bank. all of this has hastened the departure of the ceo, who announced he would be retiring next year. spokes people for td bank did not respond to our request for

comment today. a source familiar with the situation tells cnbc the violations included money la laundering with drug trafficking as well as indicators for human trafficking. >> thank you very much. president trump was set to speak at the economic club of detroit. we're seeing some headlines from his anticipated comments that have a lot of interesting plans on the tax front in particular. what can you tell us about that? >> we can also take a live look in there. he hasn't started speaking yet in detroit, but we are monitoring the stage for that event, which is all set up a md ready to go. they released a couple of comments here early from the campaign, saying the former president will talk about -- or react to today's inflation number, which he calls substantially hotter than expected. he says that all of that is the fault of the current administration. he's also going to say that -- he's going to make, if elected, he's going to push congress to

make interest on car loans tax deductible, much like mortgages. this will stimulate car production and make automobiles more affordable for millions of working families. that is something he is expected to announce in this speech coming up shortly. he's also going to talk about chinese automobiles in an effort to push back on chinese automobiles coming into the united states. and chinese auto plants in mexico. he's going to say he wants to renegotiate the usmca, the trade deal he did during his presidency that replaced nafta. he wants to trigger some of the renegotiation provisions in that agreement to enforce the idea that chinese autos can't come into the united states. in detroit michigan, that will be extremely popular. so this is a campaign speech, and remember that, you know, nothing that the former

president proposes here with any candidate will turn into law unless they have majorities in congress or majority members of congress that will support these ideas. something interesting with this idea of interest on car loans being tax deductable, you've got to tease out what the economic implications of that will be, especially for consumers given that cars are a depreciating asset, up like houses, what that would do to consumer debt positions over time, kelly. >> maybe drive up car pricing, maybe become part of the fabric of our experience and maybe just another giveaway we can't afford. for now, thanks. coming up, we're counting down to tesla's high-stakes robo taxi event tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern time. with the stock trying to make some gains today, still down 3% on the week. hurricane milton making landfall in florida last night. the former fema administrator is

here to weigh in on the government's response. we'll talk to him right after this. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc.

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so far. more than 3 million people are without power, while 11 million are still at risk of flash flooding. for more on the response and the fallout, craig fugate is a former fema administrator, as long as with jeffrey davis. we'll get the investor perspective on what has been taking place. craig, let's start with you -- let's take a quick listen to f governor ron desantis who spoke earlier. >> we are the ones that are leading. we have massive amounts of resources that we bring to bear, and then what we use fema for are whatever federal programs are available, individual assistance, some of the reimbursements. we seek that and we do it. anyone that's relying on fema to be leading the response, that is not the way proper storm response is. it really is a state-managed thing. we have a lot of locals who are

executing. and then the feds are really there in a supporting role. >> craig, i would say that makes a lot of sense from the governor, who, in a weird way, has the benefit of knowing ing a major hurricane is heading and what time it will hit the state and how to prepare. contrast that with appalachia, which had no idea what it was in for with helene, and where people are still reeling, and in some cases missing by the hundreds. >> well, the forecast for the appalachians was extreme rainfall, and fema was working with the states. when we have these extreme events where people are not -- haven't experienced this in their lifetime and trying to get them to understand that. so there's a lot of work we need to do about tying these extreme weather forecasts so that people understand the impacts. if you talk to local officials, they said yeah, we knew it was

going to be bad but not this bad. >> what could they have done to better prepare for heavy, heavy rain? and is there anything in retrospect that fema could have done to help them better prepare? >> as governor ron desantis said, the role of fema is supporting the governors. this is a question, no a reflection of what happened in helene. we see the extreme rainfall events, historically we haven't done a lot preevent to evacuate and in many cases we don't even have the information. i think there's tools to use. i think the national weather service is working on a model and trying to show people what the potential impacts. because i think if emergency managers can get information and say this is the kind of impact you're looking at, it puts them in a better position to either evacuate key areas, or get prepared for the response they're going to need. >> so in the case of what's going on in the carolinas, in north carolina in particular,

are you aware of any reports that fema is usurping what local organizations are trying to do to help find people, help open roads, help get supply where is they are needed? >> the only people talking about that are people talking about themselves and trying to get more clicks. you know, i've watched this phenomenon, these social influencers in these disaster volunteers and it's about them. fema doesn't do any of that stuff, never has and will not. a lot of this response, i think we use fema as a verb. just like ron desantis is talking about in florida, fema is supporting the governor. so again, i take that and go, that's noise. we really need to focus on the people who lost family, lost their homes and lost their businesses and get them the help, because we're getting to the point where we need to start thinking about the recovery and what people are going to need to get through the next weeks to months to rebuilding their

lives. >> right. i know i'm dwelling a lot on helene, which preceded hurricane hilton, but in many ways helene is the humanitarian catastrophe, at least based on what we this morning. >> yeah. i'm glad you're talking about helene, because there's a real problem in the national media that you go from crisis to crisis. you know, we still have an ongoing crisis in the appalachians from helene. that's not going to get done overnight. so while there's a lot of tension on milton and that response, i think you've got to remember there are a lot of disasters that may not always be in the national media, but it doesn't mean state and local officials aren't dealing with it. >> it's my understanding that fema has run out of half of its budget in the first eight days. has fema money been spent appropriately this year? is enough left to support

appa appalachia, and to help florida? >> fema manages their budget. when they start seeing that those funding levels -- this is a disaster relief fund. this is a separate appropriation that congress passes for disaster response, can't be used for anything else. and as those funds come down, fema will start slowing down spending on permanent work from older disasters to make sure they have funding available for this initial response. as that continues, there will be a request, and it won't be just f fema, it will be army corps of engineers, hud, a variety of federal programs needed for these disasters and past disasters. right now, fema has the money to do the initial response, but when it comes to long-term rebuilding, congress is going to have to appropriate more funds, more tax dollars for this rebuilding. >> knowing that's what is leading to a lot of concern, now to get those funds out quickly, especially in a time like this,

when there's so many other demands on the budget. we'll check back in soon. appreciate you joining us today. it's not just fema monitoring the fallout, cat bond investors are paying attention, because those bonds transfer risks of a catastrophe to the capital markets, offering payouts if a disaster doesn't occur, but sometimes not doing so when it does. returns dropped sharply in recent years when we had major hurricanes, like in 2022. yields skyrocketed last year, after the impacts of ian were felt and offered payouts of nearly 20%. so what happens now with the effects of milton, which could be quite substantial? joining us to talk about that is jeffrey davis, a portfolio manager and partner at element advisers. jeffrey, good to see you. i'm sure people are shaking their heads a bit, hoping for maybe a better season than they're going to have. >> hi, kelly, thank you for having me on. i just want to start by

recognizing the millions of people that were impacted by this event. our thoughts and prayers go out to them. in terms of the potential insured loss and economic costs of this event, we have industry experts that are currently projecting ing loss up to $75 billion plus, with an economic loss that will be meaningfully higher. in the way that these losses are estimated so soon after an event is that experts are able to run a simulation of milton's path and storm characteristics to come up with this preliminary estimate. while sit a good guide post, it does remain uncertain that it's so close to the landfall just 24 hours ago. >> right. >> go ahead. >> if you can, just tell us what this is going to mean for returns on cap bonds. this asset class has grown quite

substantially. it shattered records, even after what happened in 2022. what's going to happen to people -- these are three to five-year maturities, what happens to those yields people were hoping to get now? >> yeah, absolutely. so the duration on the cap bond market is just less than two years, so it is a short duration product. we do expect that there will be a drawdown similar to the graphic that you had recently shown. like hurricane ian where it was a 10% drawdown. hurricane irma was a 15% drawdown after the event. now both of those drawdowns did recover as more information became available. it does take time to sort through the expected costs of the event, and so there is a wide range of uncertainty in the market. and the reason for that is practically speaking on the ground, the requirety remains with the first responders who need to go help those who may not have evacuated and been in

the storm's path. and it does take time for the homeowners to get in there and the insurance companies to come up with a more accurate cost estimate. so that's why you see the sharp drawdowns after events of this nature. >> so say i'm a pension fund, and if it's a two-year product, say $1,000 par, it's going to yield 10%. now that milton has hit with the damage that we expect it to have, does my 10% return get cut in half? >> so if you think about the supply/demand dynamics, and the reason that the catastrophe bond, as well as the insurance link securities market exists in the first place is it provides capital from the global capital markets to help insurance companies pay claims after events such as milton. so the supply of capital is going to be pulled down as insurers draw on it to pay claim there is the event. that is naturally going to increase the overall yield in the market.

if you started in kind of the low teens in terms of the overall yield for the catastrophe bond market, that is going to go up, but it is too early to say, given how close we are to the storm, exactly what that impact is going to be. the market is priced on a weekly basis. so tomorrow, we will get the first look at the swiss read on the cap indecision following the storm that. will tell us a little where yields will go after this event. >> we had good returns last year, but i imagine because it was quiet on the hurricane front. >> yes, yes, there was no major impacts in the u.s. last year. >> jeffrey, thank you for joining us today. time will tell what it means for investors in this market. and this just crossing the wires. homeland security secretary says 4300 people have been rescued

since helene and no resource also be diverted to the hurricane hilton response. now over to tyler mathisen for the news update. a three-judge panel heard arguments this morning on the fate of hundreds of thousands of so-called daca recipients who were brought to the united states as children. the suit against the daca program was originally filed by texas, and six other gop controlled states back in 2018. but any ruling from the fifth circuit after today's arguments is likely to be appealed to the supreme court. the trial of bryan kohberger, charged with killing four university of idaho students, will be held next august. the judge in the case pushed it back from a june start after kohberger's attorney successfully argued for a change of venue to boise. and the minnesota twins are for sale. the owners have hired a bank to explore the sale.

the family has opened the team for more than 40 years. according to forbes, the team is valued at $1.46 billion. kelly, back to you. >> tyler, see you soon. misinformation has been ramping up ahead of the presidential election, even as ai comes onto the scene. is it helping or hurting? deidre bosa is here now digging into a new report from openai in today's "tech check." what are they claiming, deidre? >> you hit on a key question, will this go any better than it did in the social media era? mark zuckerberg wrote back in 2012, facebook was not originally created to be a company. it was built to accomplish a social mission, make the world more open and connected. sounds familiar. it did for a while. but then misinformation, influence operations, they reared their heads and zuckerberg, facebook, they were

on the defense. policymakers had to try to put pandora back in the box. so openai, there's signs it may be trying to get ahead of similar issues in the age of generative ai when the stakes are arguably a lot higher. yesterday, the startup released a 54-page report that analyzes more than 20 covert operations that used its models to launch deceptive campaigns on social media. it was the second this year, and it's meant to flag an initial set of trends in the broader threat land scape. there's financial incentive here too, though, that may be why this is playing out differently. the social media business model powered by engagement and amplification. the generative ai business model isn't clear, but so far, this is a subscription and licensing model. openai, anthropic, they rely on the model serving users and companies accurate information. so trust is central.

while we have seen pushback on broader regulation, there has been progress. more than a dozen smaller ai bills have been signed into law in california, including cracking down on deep fakes. they were introduced last year. even if we don't get that overarching legislation, stuff may be pushed through. the key point, though, the difference in those business models for now, openai, of course, is going from nonprofit to a profit company. maybe those incentives will change. >> deidre, thanks. more attention will be on this in the next couple of weeks. coming up, tesla shares are well off session lows ahead of the robo taxi event. it's something elon musk has been promising. we'll show you what to expect with the shares turning positive, next.

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i like anyone else in the industry, and in 2020, we expect to have a million robo taxis on the road. we believe we'll have the most profitable taxi on the market.

>> yes, that was 2019. that was musk on an earnings call, promising to have a million robo taxis the following year. it's five years later, and we're just getting a look at that robo taxi later today. my next guest says robo taxis could general rate $1.7 trillion by 2040, upping his price target on tesla to $236. where do we begin? i guess the central point is, while many are skeptical that we might hear that much really tonight on the arrival of the robo taxi, you think there might be something here that moves the needle in the near term? >> i probably agree with that in the near term. we saw the stock kind of run into this event. we saw that because the delivery number, remember, the stock sold

off on that, which makes folks think it traded up into it. so near term probably, yeah, not a lot of upside. but this is more about the long-term when we look back five or ten years back and look at this event and remember what it means. folks like me will finally put this in their numbers, right? and i think we may get some easter eggs today too that could move the stock near term. >> in a weird way, it's one -- it's like the line about trump. you take trump seriously but not literally. the idea being robo taxis coming, it just might be years later. but the impact for shares you think is what? that if -- tell me what exactly you think he's going the announce tonight. what's in the stock already and what's not? >> yeah, i think what we'll get is a couple of things. i think we'll get an actual service announcement, like there will be a deployment of some service six to 12 months out,

similar to waymo or cruise. we'll see a vehicle, i don't know how relevant that will be. i think we may get some stuff on optimist, the invitation that we got said we robot. so maybe just beyond the robo taxi itself, we'll get a lot of numbers too. the economics are amazing, and i think we'll get a lot of information on why their tech is better than what's out there, thanks to fsd. you know, there's an arms race for nvidia chips. they have a lot of them. so i think folks will get more detailed than just simple, you know, power point slides. we'll get actual numbers that we can put into our models. and that's something that will maybe not have a direct impact near term but help us with the narrative of looking at this as a tech company, not an auto company, not being so focused so

much on deliveries and focused on something bigger. >> waymo is already there. it shows that if this is doable, tesla should be able to do it. but they've got to get up to par with waymo soon, don't you think? >> well, as we have shown in our report, it's a $1.7 trillion number by 2024. i only have tesla at around $250 billion of that. so it's a lot of folks that are going to participate in this robo taxi ecosystem. but it dramatically improves the profitability of the transportation sector. you know, you pay $1, $2 for an uber drive. it only costs 30 cents to operate these. the margins go from 10% to 60% to a software company. so it increases the pie for everybody, including waymo, including tesla, including app

providers like uber. a lot of different companies are going to play in this, it will just increase the size of the pie of overall mobility. >> let me leave you with this then. what isa sell the news kind of set of announcements? what robo taxi announcement sends the stock down 10%, 20%? >> oh, yeah, certainly if we don't get a near term service announcement. if we're told that this is 10, 15 years out. if they talked about costs associated with this being significant. >> we continue to see sort of key staff leaving, the delay of this event, maybe suggests there's a lot of pressure to make it ready for primetime. >> well, as i'm told by our tech analyst, this is something that's par for the course for the industry. you know, you have people leaving here and there. it's not anything significant.

>> i'm looking forward to the announcements and seeing what the stock does tonight and the next couple of weeks as investors digest it. tom, thank you. one of the hottest policy topics around the election is energy. trump has his drill, baby drill plan. harris has green investments, but boast emphasized to bring down energy costs. let's turn to brian sullivan for a closer look. >> down here in d.c. doing some reporting on energy sector. i want to highlight the top four things around energy and sector for a trump administration and the top four mings for a harris administration, and what wall street has to say about actualt it. let's start out with the former president. the four things that wall street and investors are talking about is this? are we all drilled out? trump says drill, baby, drill, basically can we each drill more economically? will donald trump try to gut the

inflation reduction act? probably not because guess what? 75% of the money is going to red or conservative states. what do we do about china solar tariffs? do we jack them up? do we make them worse or ease up? probably the former, jack them up and that could affect domestic manufacturing. you just talked about it and we have a picture of elon musk for a reason and trump said he will end the ev tax credit or will he flip if he gets close to musk? he's talking about having enough oil for domestic security? will she back off some of the more climate reforms and allow the industry to continue to grow? we need permit reform. permitting is years out. the lng pause on the new projects, what will she do about that? will european allies do that? and i end it with the same thing, kelly, the ev flip because last week in michigan she said i'm not going tell you

what kind of car to drive though in 2019, kamala harris was co-sponsor of the clean emissions act which would have effectively banned gas cars for sale by 2040. michigan is a pretty key state, so i wonder how much that was a tornado and what is wall street saying? congress is under control and the inflation reduction act is here to stay and kelly, it's not natural gas or solar, it's more, more, more. >> are there stock plays, brian, that investors are watching closely here? >> there is, and one's in the news today for bad reasonses. that is first solar. first solar, we talked about solar right there. utilities scale solar is getting crushed in the market today and everything i read and everyone that i talk to is longer term bullish on this company because this is the one company that may be able to buttress us against some of that increased chinese competition. actually, i earlier spoke with james west of evercore isi, top

analyst on the street, and i asked him if first solar could win in any administration? >> there wouldn't already and they're taking orders for '27, '28 and '29. they'll be in for a long, long time. i think others will come into production in the u.s. and part of the ira and part of what we produce and you pay u.s. taxes, you're welcome here. >> deutsche bank also bullish on firstsolar. bad day today. by the way, i'll be back on the 4:00 p.m. hour and i did a sitdown with senator mark werner and we'll talk energy you are security and i'll have those exclusive comments in the 4:00 p.m. show. >> among the top three in the country. thank you very much, brian sullivan. as floridians begin to assess the impact of hurricane milton, the recovery efforts from hurricane helene continue.

swaths of north kale ccarolina still inaccessible and the only two high purity quartz mine, the only two in the world were in helene's path of destruction. joining us now for an update on recovery efforts is the ceo one of them. sibelco's hilmar hoda. i know there's crazy news out there. is there anything you can share about the production and the supply? >> good afternoon, kelly. i'm glad to be here with you today from charlotte. why, indeed, we do have good news to share. i am very pleased to announce that sibelco has started mining in the quartz operations, and that also includes the restart of shipments to customers. >> you have, as of today? >> yes, as of today. >> mining processing and shipments to customers.

we are very pleased to have achieved that and since the hurricane struck on the 26th of september and we owe a huge deal of gratitude to our employees, who are, thankfully, all safe and sound and they've been incredibly, incredibly resilient despite very difficult circumstances. >> tell us how exactly your facility was affected and how difficult it was for employees to make it back to the production lines? >> well, i was there yesterday and the day before, two full days together also with our chairman inspecting all our assets and also inspecting the broader community and what i can say to you is the damage and the destruction and the human suffering is absolutely amazing and our heartfelt condolences and sorrow go to anyone who has been impacted and people have been left without communication, power, water, sewage, the ability to be moving around on the roads that were broken up. also, no gasoline.

i think people have been incredibly resilient. what we see is that at all levels the support is being very powerful. at the federal level we've been working closely with fema which has been extremely present and visible. also the national guard, we were able to repair roads and bridges to give them access to the local county airport. also, local and county and state officials are working drethly with governor roy cooper and his team and of course, we've also been in touch with our two senators and the representatives. so you have to say it's just been an incredible effort of absolutely everyone coming together, and the speed at which things got put together, also, private companies. the power company in the area has done an absolutely tremendous on, and we were following land as a lay down

wear and that and the fact we were not impacted and the other advantage is we have completed the $2 hun million expansion to double capacity and we were able to completely redirect our project team and all of the contractors to the recovery, forts. >> wow. >> power, transportation and of course, water intakes from the river. we've been able to get power back -- permanent power at some facilities. other facilities are running on power and we've made temporary arrangements with water. >> just a couple of seconds left. let me ask you, would you ever consider relocating after what happened and did the white house reach out to assist with these efforts at all? >> we've had basically contact at the state level and then with all of the federal agencies. with the few seconds remaining,

i just want to say when all of that support goes away we are concerned for the long term recovery of the area and already incorporated a non-profit foundation called sibelco's foundation. it's ready to receive checks or people are interested please reach out to us on sibelco spruce pine foundation at sibelco.com. we will receive any donations. >> thank you for bringing us up to speed. congratulations on getting back up and running and we appreciate what you're doing to help the community bounce back. "power lunch" is back after a break.

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