eldridge industries, the chairman and ceo. it's been a year since we sat down with him. matt brown, the chairman and ceo of case. that's the platform that connects institutional investors in alts with wealth managers so that you can invest in things beyond stocks and beyonds. ian charles will be his first tv interview ever. they've made a huge play in sports. john taft of baird will join us. tom lee on "closing bell," lor lessa mister. final trade, that's today? >> delta airlines. >> cisco syy. >> gxl. the company is worth about $80 a share. >> good stuff. see you on "the bell." ♪ ♪ >> we'll see you soon, scott. welcome to "the exchange" on this friday. i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead.

tesla's long awaited robo taxi event was a big success, just not for tesla. there's another name you don't see here that has pulled miles ahead this the ride share race. we'll have full coverage as we watch these big stock moves. and the ceo of nvidia is everywhere these days. we'll bring you that moment when he crashed our air live. and one of our guests says she would never recommend shorting nvidia. and what if the fed pauses? the fed's bostic floated that idea just yesterday. we'll look at the names you may want to buy or bail on. this is one of our buys on the mist try chart today, up 35%. let's start with the markets and dom chu. >> it's a record day, and aim not going to bury the lead. the record highs in the dow industrials, put the star right up there. also with the s&p 500, both large-cap indexes made record highs. the dow up 316 points, three

quarters of 1% advance there to bring you to 42,770. the s&p 500 is up 5809, up about 29 points, half of 1% gains here. at the highs, we were up just around 39 points and down roughly 5 at the lows. tilting towards the higher end of things right now. the nasdaq composite, maybe a little bit of that tesla drag on there. it's at 18,327. it's up 45 points, only one quarter of 1% advance there. but it's grown across the board and record highs for two major indexes. as for what got us to these record high levels. the nasdaq is just a couple percent away from its own rarified air, but it's the technology stocks, the industrial stocks, and the financial stocks, three of the best performing sectors in the s&p 500 so far this week, that has driven that move to the all-time highs. and within striking distance of all-time highs for that big nasdaq trade. keep an eye on those key

sectors. and big bank earnings season kicks off. positive across the board. jpmorgan chase, up 4.5%. wells fargo up 6%. and black rock, the world's largest asset manager, up 2.5%, as well. it's just staggering. yes, the banks are important. but black rock, $11.5 trillion, that's how much they have in assets. another record level there. so blackrock, a big move today. >> i remember when we got to $4 trillion and i thought, are we too big to fail? it boggles the mind. again, we're talking about exposure to those assets. thank you very much. we begin with tesla's robo taxi event, which was big on show production and light on details and the stock is down 8% as a result. phil has more on this for us. this is the discussion dejeur,

the stock reaction. >> we said for sometime that if there were not details, analysts would say, what's the story here? and that's the reason the stock is moving lower. in terms of razzle dazzle, you know, you know what? great razzle dazzle but where's the substance? it was great. elon walks out, gets inside the robo taxi, a two seater with no steering wheel, no pedals. the cost will be under $30,000 and production starts by '27. but beyond that, not a lot of details, although he did give us repeatedly his vision of the future when it comes to autonomous drive vehicles. >> you can think of the car in the autonomous world as being like a little lounge. you're just sitting in a comfortable little lounge, and you can do whatever you want while you're in this comfortable

little lounge. when you get out, you will be at your destination. so yeah, it's going to be awesome. >> some of the eye candy from last night separate from the robeeo taxi, this is one of the the robo van. this is their vision of a mass, you know, multipassenger vehicle, can carry up to 20 people for urban settings. this is sort of a hey, you want our vision for the future, this is one possibility. we saw robots. as you take a look at shares of tesla, the one thing that people wanted, and they really, really wanted were greater details, clarity when it comes to the ride share programs for their fully self-driving autonomous vehicles. not fsd vehicles, autonomous fully self-driving where you don't need a driver. they said it's going to start in california and texas next year. no other details beyond that.

nothing with pricing or an app. at the end of the day, a lot of people looked at this event and said it looked good, but i want some meat of the matter here in terms of foreign investor. what am i investing in, in terms oh of a future when it comes to robo taxi or autonomous ride share service? >> maybe we can put the multiple back on the screen to remind me where the shares are trading at. the smaller model two car as well, was that mentioned or no? >> no, it was not mentioned. now, it could be mentioned when they report their q3 results on october 23rd, and that may be one of the questions from the analysts if tesla does not address it. it was after q1 when they missed and the stock was under pressure. elon musk, during the conference call, said we are working on a lower priced vehicle. they didn't call it the model two, but just a lower priced vehicle that we would like to

get into production by this year or early '25. this is not like something people cooked up and said i would like to know what they're working on. he set the table in the first quarter. now people are saying you set the table, when are we going to find what you're cooking? >> 88 forward pe, ad 700 billion market cap. it's amazing, to tesla's credit, what they're able to do is impressive, and the fact investors are like, yeah, yeah, we priced that in is amazing. phil, thank you. we appreciate it. let's turn to the lack of ride hailing plan details have shares of uber and iftlyft surg today. my next guest is cheering quite as loudly with the rest of the street, saying both of these companies should, over time, expect more competition from tesla, maybe as soon as next year. joining me is conner cunningham.

great to have you here. boil this down for us, why do you actually see a threat around the corner? >> kelly, thanks for having me. so the lack of detail around the ride hailing application obviously was a big disappointment, but it seems inevitable at this point. we already have autonomous vehicles on the road with waymo. but these cars are coming, and they're going to change the game on some level. so it's not that we obviously see that the benefits to uber and lyft in the near term as it shifts back to the fundamentals, where there's a compelling story there. over the long-term, competition should step up from here. there will be new entrants. you have a lot of big companies with a lot of money behind them, looking to get into this space, not just tess law enforcement you have amazon and others. so it should be interesting over the next couple of years. >> i'm curious. can't wait to get details behind

uber's partnership with waymo. who's paying whom in order to roll this out. you have a hold on both stocks with price targets around where they are right now. last hour, they were saying they're growing earnings by 100% this year, 4.5% free cash flow yield. all of those things alone she said make me want to own it. is there some truth to that, at least in the near term? >> i mean, these are two companies that are at a -- in a secular growth industry. there's plenty of opportunity for them to grow over the next couple of years. they talk about 15% over the next several years. again, there's plenty of opportunity to just continue to grow the share there. in terms of overall, just driving up frequency and adding new gas, the penetration rates is still really, really low. so yeah, the core business itself remains strong, but to phil's point earlier, tesla is going to talk about that every

time they can. so they see the opportunity, as well within that business segment. so it's not necessarily that i think the fundamentals are weak there. it's just the fact that there's going to be incremental competition. you know, obviously we didn't get a lot of detail around when that's going to start to happen. that's likely the driver behind the stock in the near term. but it's coming at some point. so we will see. >> each ensuing event makes it a little more real. we know he'll roll things out before they're ready for primetime. at some point it's going to be on the road. you are looking at the economics of this, a lot of investors are, as well. when musk says the cost per mile for cyber cab will be 20 cents, what does that say to you? >> so that's a good question. so just the current cost per mile of a standard car ownership is around 65 cents. so if you can get to a cyber cab

of 20 to 30 cents overall, that's obviously a benefit to the consumers out there in general. uber and lyft right now, cost per mile, depending on where you're riding is about $1 to $2. a lot of that goes to the driver itself, over 70% of that goes to the driver right now. so if you can remove that driver, there's a huge economic benefit to both these companies. but, again, the question is like who is going to end up owning it? does uber and lyft need to go out and find a significant number of cyber cabs themselves? it would change the cash profile of the company. so they go from basically asset light to asset heavy. so those are all the questions that need to be answered. are these going to be -- are these companies going to have to maintain fleets and what not. so there's plenty of questions still to come, and obviously, without a lot of significant answers from tesla yesterday. >> i appreciate you thinking through this, and those

economics as well. curb your enthusiasm is the message here. conner, thank you for your time. good to see you. >> thank you, kelly. well, we've talked about tesla and uber's robo taxi ambitions, but it's likely waymo leading the driverless race at this point. deidre bosa has more. speaking of the competition that conner was alluding to, deidre. >> i enjoyed that last conversation. my takeaway is that the ceo has done an incredible job of putting uber adjacent to robo taxis, but they do not have the tech itself. it's just a network that would be disrupted. the real winner last night is waymo. while tesla hopes to start production on their cyber cab before 2027, waymo already has a fleet of more than 700 driverless vehicles delivering and charging for thousands of rides per week and expanding

rapidly. the two key ingredients, trustc. waymo, potentially making it harder to scale. tesla is promising an unproven set of tactics that if it does work, it has higher rewards. trust is going to be just as important. as part of our deep dive, we pulled some people in new york where robo taxis are not yet available. >> i wouldn't trust it. >> i kind of believe that the cars should be driven be i a person. >> i can't imagine driving in manhattan how a driverless car can navigate people crossing, e-bikes everywhere. i'm amazed how that can happen. >> you know, i can't imagine, these are all people who haven't tried it. here's what we found in san francisco, where waymo robo taxis are everywhere and available to the public.

>> it will be a magical experience. >> i felt much safe getting into a waymo than most cars. >> i heard about this when i was a kid, and it's here now. it's kind of crazy. >> the key difference, kelly, those that have ridden in a waymo robo taxi are largely -- those that haven't ridden in them are skeptical. if there are several robo taxi companies that are able to do this a few years from now, uber could serve as the platform for all of them. if there's only a couple of them, they could go directly to riders, like waymo is doing in san francisco. something that your previous guest just said, competition from robo taxis is coming. if you're in san francisco, it is very much already here, and likely getting into the market shares of uper and lyft.

>> a round of applause, i love that, the contrast between san francisco and new york. so quick question on that, deidre. any word on when this could be coming to new york? i was driving home from there yesterday. it's nerve-racking when there's people biking within two inches of your car at all times. >> yes, and i think you heard that in some of the man on the street reaction, how in the world are those robo taxis going to account for bikes, pedestrians that jaywalk, and here in san francisco, you will see that it operates very similar to a human driver, in some cases safe. as to when it's going to roll out more broadly, i don't know, they're quickly coming into the sun belt. these vehicles still have challenges when it comes to snow and heavy rain, but i got a view of the latest waymo vehicle that's being developed now. it's so interesting, these lighters on it have little

windshield wipers and heaters. so they're already trying to solve this problem. it's interesting that it's like physical, you need heaters and windshield wipers to do that. but that's how they started and racked up 22 million driverless miles. it happened slowly, then all at once. >> we've got to go, but you just dropped a little bomb there. they're partnering with a chinese carmaker? we'll have to revisit this tomorrow -- no, monday. >> sure thing. >> deidre bosa. coming up, ppi wash suppose to be the news today, but nvidia's ceo stole the show by crashing a show, a live tv show, cnbc's "squawkbox." >> how is the -- >> can we get a better camera angle? >> he's here. >> we don't have a microphone on you is the problem. >> so exciting to be on the air. am i on tv? >> you're on tv. >> the best part when becky gave

him her mic. one of our next guests is bullish on nvidia, but she does have a warning for large-cap investors and tells us what it is and how to position right now. that's next. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc. at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

craig here pays too much for verizon wireless. is a so he sublet half hisout. real estate office... [ bird squawks loudly ] to a pet shop. meg's moving company uses t-mobile. so she scaled down her fleet to save money. and don's paying so much for at&t, he's been waiting to update his equipment! there's a smarter way to save. comcast business mobile. you could save up to 70% on your wireless bill. so you don't have to compromise. powering smarter savings. powering possibilities. welcome back to "the exchange." we have new data on consumer

spending and it dropped last month. steve liesman brings us the results. do tell. >> yeah, kelly, consumers are taking a break between the stronger summer and holiday spending seasons with the cnbc nrf registry. after seven straight months of gains, a decline. the retail monitor, powered with actual credit card spending data, shows spending down 0.3%, when you take out auto and gas, following a half point gain in august, spending group 0.6% year over year. take out restaurants, as well. that's what we call our core retail index. it shows a similar decline at a 0.9% positive year over year gape. the decline was broad-based, though, with only 3 of 12 sectors showing gains, they were non-store retailering and a modest gain there for health and personal care. gas stations were down along

with furniture, and building and garden supplies. nrf economist mark matthews saying -- >> our initial read of the data is that it's going to pick up those effects from the hurricane, though there could have been some impact at the end of the month. but otherwise, the they see consumer in good shape, low unemployment and low inflation, at least in the good sector. that should allow a return to healthy spending for the holidays, if they want to do it, kelly. >> i hope they do. by the way, what do the sentiment numbers say real quickly this morning? >> i'm sorry, kelly, i did not see the sentiment numbers. >> i didn't either.

i bet tom knows. >> i can look them up. >> no, no, no. steve, you've done enough, thank you. steve liesman. tom is here onset with me. we're talking about inflation, which does look like it's easing. the fed is on track to cut rates, or at least has been, but the pace depends on the labor market. do you know what happened with sentiment this morning? >> i think the thing that people were really talking about with sentiment was the one-year inflation measure. >> up or down? >> it went up. but it's very -- incredibly volatile. if you look at the five-year measure, that was down. so i don't know that there was much to make of that there, and with all the inflation data we already had in hand, people were digesting those. so i don't think the sentiment stuff really mattered that much. >> sentiment unexpectedly declined in october. 68.9 versus expectations for improvement to 71.

current conditions did drop. this would fit with more on steve's data with a pause on spending with tell us. how do we know if this pullback is anything more worrisome. >> there's been a lot of data of late. people love to talk about the payroll report. over the last two weeks, the most compelling piece of information that we have received were the massive upward revisions to the income data from two weeks ago. >> absolutely. >> that to me was -- i don't like to be hyperbolic, but it was compelling. you know -- >> maybe it was a game changer -- >> it could have been. >> anyone not familiar with this, for years we had seen income measures disappointing while production measures holding up. the question was, is production going to be revised down, or income going to be revised up? and income was revised up. >> and where it was revised up was compelling. yeah, you have some improvement

in wages and salaries, which is great. but you also saw interest income rise, dividend income rise, so, you know -- >> so in other words, the source of better than expected income that has been supporting this economy is literally from high rates, because people are earning more interest than the market doing well. >> that's right. look, let's just be clear on who that impacts most. it's mostly a top percentile dynamic. it puts a floor underneath economic activity. so you have a conversation about recession, which is still fair to sort of wonder about that. but i think that's just thrown a bunch of cold water on it. so the state of the consumer seems to be much better, post those revisions. >> in our few final moments, what happens with rates? can you imagine if they cut 15 and pause? >> this gets to the payroll report, right? and what i would say on that, i get that the payroll report

doesn't erase all the things that happened before the payroll report. the quit rate is still down, hiring rate is still down. the labor differential, that's still down. so there's been an assortment of other data that have deteriorated. the one thing is the payroll report on that last friday. so i would sort of really tread carefully with this idea. we're not saying that labor is not in okay shape, we think it is. just don't think this is an economy generating -- >> by the way, i should have stepped outside last night. i mean, that was green and purple. >> it was amazing. >> tom, thanks. my next guest says we're in uncharted waters here with double digit earnings growth as the fed starts easing. that's just because it rarely happens doesn't mean it can't continue. joining us now is julia beale. great to see you again.

working overtime. let's start -- we teased a little bit on your nvidia position. can we just start there? i always think of you -- maybe you it was a small-cap when you were first buying it. >> at our firm, we've owned it for over a decade. that was really based off of this technology that was quite ground breaking for this powerful chip. it found that in gaming, and by a happy accident, it is the perfect application for ai. >> so what's the concern that you have with large-cap in general right here? >> i think the expectations are really, really high in terms of what ai can deliver in the near term, and my concern with nvidia in particular, not that we are interested in selling the position, but the thick that gives me a little pause in terms of adding is that there's so much customer concentration.

there are about five companies driving the majority of that business. it's not that i'm worried these companies are going to go elsewhere, but what i worry about is that they slow down their spending. when you have expectations as high as they are for nvidia, that can be a concern and create a lot of disappointment and hurt feelings with investors. >> there's been hurt feelings since the fed cut. >> it makes sense. if you look at 90% of the stock's performance, it's driven by earnings. small-cap earnings haven't troughed yet. we're going the see that growth, but the thing that's nice about it is that expectations are still relatively reasonable, valuations are reasonable. and they have much easier year over year comparisons than what you see in large caps. so i think the setup is good. it's impossible to predict when the turn is going to happen, but small caps should be part of

every investor's balanced diet. >> single stocks, for those that are curious, you have a couple of water plays in mind right now. >> i think water is definitely not as sexy as ai, but it's critical. and our infrastructure is certainly very underdeveloped and underfunded. there are a few names, such as advanced drainage, where we're converting our concrete pipe over to these more plastic pipes. this is what they have mostly in europe. they have a competitive position in this market, and i think they're a really attractive growth fundamentals and less volatile than most of what you see in other sectors. so it's part of a balanced diet for your portfolio. >> i wonder if that's what i should blame for all the road rock going on in our area. ju julie, thank you for your time today. >> thank you. coming up, the chance for a quarter point cut in november is still at 88%.

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welcome back, everybody. i'm tyler mathisen. this is your news update at this hour. the trump campaign is request i military aircraft and vehicles for the candidate to travel in. along with expanded flight restrictions over areas where he lives and campaigns, and ballistic glass to be prepositioned in battleground states. this is according to news from "the washington post," which says the campaign may be unprecedented request after government briefings that said iran is actively pr ly plotting kill him. boeing is filing a strike complaint. the company auses the union, which represents 30,000 factory workers, of not bargaining in good faith. boeing pulled its latest contract offer this week, citing the union's refusal to seriously

consider the proposal. toyota will become the technical partner of american racing team haas. haas will keep its own name and toyota won't supply the engines. the team already has been agreement to use ferrari engines through 2028. i know you were waiting on that news, kelly. >> we're more of a nascar family. coming up, financials are the best performing sector, and one of the best this week. shares of bny touched another high earlier this the session and paired those gains somewhat. the ceo joins us next. and we want to update you on pebble brook hotel trust. the cfo joined us wednesday to discuss the company's storm prep that were in hurricane milton's path. four of those properties are back up and running. crews are working around the clock on site.

joe biden, by the way, is estimating $50 billion of damage from milton alone, and saying he'll make a request to congress for more money. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "the exchange." shares of bny are hitting an all-time high, although they turned lower by about 2%. net income interest and fee and investment revenues saw a gain in third quarter. losses were liven primarily by the bank's real estate commercial. joining me in an exclusive is the ceo robin vince and leslie picker. leslie, want to pick it off? >> thank you so much. i think so across your industry, a lot of investors are trying to figure out what rate cuts mean for things like deposits, the rates by which deposits rekt to

what the fed is doing. can you give us some krocolor o what you expect for 2025? i know you expect q to be a little lower, but what about the full yeear next year? >> well, first, kelly and leslie, it's great to be with you. we announced earnings today. we were pleased with those earnings. they've been building on the cumulative performance we've been laying out to our investors over the past couple of years and we've been making good progress. as you say, it's an important part of bank earnings, so making sure we are thoughtful about that has been important, but we are pleased with how we have managed nii over the course of this quarter, and we talked about our outlook for q4, which i think was something that resonated with investors. >> and the shares have done quite well, one of the best of the major banks. but you are provisions more for potential losses in commercial

real estate, why? >> we it is a small adjustment, given the nature of the world we are in. we are a firm that has a high quality balance sheet. we prize resilience and our ability to use our balance sheet to support our clients. and it was a small reserve increase that we thought was appropriate, given where things are in the cycle right now. >> and could you be more specific on where your commercial real estate exposures are? we spoke earlier this week with an investor who says hotels are strong, but maybe improving at the margin, and what do we do with multifamily based on the glut of apartments? so where are your exposures, and are you seeing strong performance, and where are things choppier, and how does the potential for higher rates may into that? >> i think the -- to understand bny is to understand that we're a platform's business. we have the market leading capabilities that play all

around the world that ultimately help our clients to go about their business. we announced today that we crossed an important threshold in our custody, $50 trillion, which is significant. commercial real estate is such a small part of our business -- >> true. >> -- compared to all the other platforms to be honest with you. but we watch the market with everyone else, and we are lending to our clients to help support their business, and some of our clients that do other important things with us also appreciate that our balance sheet can be put to work to help them. >> a nascent area of your area is the custody of crypto etfs. it sounds like you're getting closer to a broader rollout here. i'm curious to what you see as the total addressable market to you and what the upside looks like at this point in time. >> well, to take a step back just for a second, the overall

evolution of technology that now creates for digital assets the ability to have new wrappers for assets, we see it as part of our innovation journey, to be preparing for the future. we have had clients come to us and say gosh, you are the world's largest at some of these things that you do. can you help us as we, the client, moves forward into crypto and toke anized assets. so we leave in tokenization. digital assets are quite interesting for the future and we've been preparing our businesses to respond to the client request to help them in that journey. that's been the focus that we have had in crypto. >> a quick last question, almost more of a comment. are you anticipating a downturn in the u.s. economy or no? >> actually, we're quite optimistic about where the u.s. finds itself right now. i think the performance overall of the u.s. economy has surprised a bit to the upside.

go back a year ago, many people are making more pessimistic comments. of course, we have to prepare. we tell our clients and everyone that we engage with that you have to be resilient. there will be a down turn at some point. in terms of where we stand right now, we are cautiously optimistic. the u.s. has a lot of things going for it at the moment, with the combination of energy independence, technology, the wealth effect from all of the record highs that we have had in the stock market that's bolstering consumer confidence. inflation is on a decent path. one of the reasons why it's a little stickier is the u.s. economy is doing quite well. that's not the worst reason to slow the path for the target of inflation. >> most bank shares are doing quite well on this kind of better than hoped for scenario. robin, thank you for your time today. leslie, thank you for bringing that to us, as well. coming up, former president trump holding a rally in nevada

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there's been no question that the biden/harris team over the last four years, and going on into the future, talk a lot about the issues that concern us the most around employment security, economic security, and retirement security. >> that was david mccaul, president of the united steel workers union. if you recall telling us why they endorsed harris in a 2024 election. but trump and republicans are ramping up their efforts to court the typical democratic workers groups, particularly in the swing states.

emily wilkins is in pennsylvania with a check on their progress. emily? >> reporter: hey, kelly. yeah, this corner of northeastern pennsylvania is a union heavy area, and republican candidates are making the pitch that as a union contractor, he is the best to represent them next year, even though he is a republican. >> just because i have an "r" next to my name doesn't mean i'm not for collective bargaining. i was the chairman of the joint apprentice training committee, and i was always able to put my hat on and say what's best for this organization at this time. >> reporter: well, he has ties with union workers, and union leaders have endorsed his opponent. tisha williams, a certified nursing assistant and nursing member, said he has the backs of union workers. >> he supported us, he's been on

the picket lines for us for nursing home and hospital workers alike. he's brought in a lot for our local communities. >> reporter: he doesn't fully support stop pro union legislation, but his stances on things like immigration and inflation have really resonated with some union workers here, like travis buchanon. >> the way -- the old ways are over. democrats, you cannot just expect that every yunion member is going to vote democrat, it's just not going to happen. >> reporter: the kangal race here is one of the close nest the nation, and it will help decide which party controls the house next year. guys? >> indeed it will. emily, thank you very much. emily will kins in pennsylvania. coming up, atlanta's fed is open to pausing fed cuts. but that has my next guest

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welcome back. strong jobs and stickier inflation are throwing the timing of the fed's next rate cut into question. with bosticks saying he is open to a pause. if so, how can you play it? a pause fix edition, we have gina in landon. gina sanchez. chief market strategist and cnbc contributor. your first pick is financials. it's goldman sachs, $1 off the july all-time highs. best year since 2021. they report next week. barclays is flagging trading revenues, getting rid of the consumer banking things as headwinds. you like the stock here. >> yeah, so i think, you know, this is one of the -- one of our high conviction trades on our trade list. one of the several reasons is that they're really focused on brokerage, wealth management, and so everything that is

oriented. the pause could be very, very fleeting. we don't anticipate we are going to stay here. as we continue to see interest rates tick down, and that is still our basis expectation, even if we do have a pause at the next meeting, that's really what goldman sachs needs to really, really start to get, you know, their deal flow going and get the capital machinery moving again. >> all right. as now i have to ponder where you are. i can see, that's not -- that's not a real -- i see the white strip. it's a beautiful look, though. let's move along to caterpillar. shout-out to 10k trades who always guesses and guessed our chart today. that was the first mystery chart. shares are hitting an all-time high. investors are watching construction outlook in the u.s. they have pricing in maybe demand weakness to contemplate. you like this one on a fed pause. why? >> yes. we actually are holding this one also on our high conviction

list. part of the reason is that we could theoretically be going into a slowdown, but there's still enough momentum, as you can see, from the hotter-than-expected inflation and the labor market. even if we do go into a slowdown, there is still going to be a lot of benefits from lower rates and pent-up demand in the industries. industries tend to do well when we get to that final rate pause. even if it is a short rate pause, we think that caterpillar is actually going to continue. they're a big player here, and they should benefit from continued activity that will, you know, sort of get that pent-up demand going. >> when i see the way that goldman and cat, you know, are trading as if maybe we're already anticipating that pause, which would be interesting. if it doesn't materialize, only 12% odds in the market right now. final buy, it hasn't been quite as strong lately. dr horton, down 5% since the fed's september cut.

as the tenure's recent climb also moved mortgage rates higher, surprisingly. why do you want to pick it up here? >> this one is interesting. we own it actually as one of our high conviction bets. the reason is because they are really specializing in that starter home kind of edge into the market. that is an area of the housing market that is perceptually un underinventoried. there's still a lot of work to do depending on what happens not only with the fed but with the election. we could potentially see a boom in that particular segment of the market. >> traditionally, home builders are a place you want to go. although, nothing has held up quite like normal lately. still, home builders have been strong. let's get to the bail. that was theother mystery chart we showed before this break. it's best buy. this is the name you're bailing on if the fed pauses. shares are up more than 30% this year. they're well-off their 2021

highs, you know, the pandemic peaks. piper sandler says the pc replacement cycle should be favorable this year. again, it's had a decent run. what are you concerned about? >> so i think that the concern that i have with best buy just as a general big box play is that if the fed pauses, and this is a big if, if the fed pauses and it does put a hiccup into a slowdown that was already percolating anyway and makes it a little worse, i do think that the kind of consumer discretionary names could actually get hurt. if you look at the trajectory, even most analysts who are forecasting kind of a really decent outlook for best buy anticipate at least two quarters of rough going before you start to get back into real growth. you're going to have to slog through this one no matter what happens, and so there's a little bit of downside risk in holding that, kind of the good numbers that might come a year from now. >> all right. because we have time, we'll

mention your bonus buy. if the fed pauses, that is, drum roll, please, visa. why so? >> so, you know, look, i think that visa continues to benefit from the fact that investor -- i mean, that consumers are continuing to consume. now, what is concerning to us is that we're seeing, you know -- we're continuing to see credit card balances rise on the consumer side of the balance sheet. if you are visa, you are making a ton of money on that. in fact, you know, visa, mastercard, american express, you know, these plays in the market have been just sweeping in, kind of the income from consumers that downed their pandemic savings, spent down the pandemic stimulus, and then just started racking up credit card debt. at some point, that game is going to end. but it's still a profitable game if you're in the business of credit cards. >> all right. there's your playbook as we

ponder what we'll hear from the feds next week and then what the data show us into november. gina, thanks so much for your time. gina sanchez, mystery location. >> thank you. that's it for "the exchange." tyler is getting ready for "power lunch." i'll join him and see you on the other side of this break.

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