with disabilities that you want to see more pay equity in the workplace. lilly ledbetter was a reason why. >> a pioneer in that area. and an underappreciated underknown one, i think. >> and have the support of her husband, when she said let's go forward and she found out about the pay inequity, her husband supported her in that fight that went all the way to the supreme court. so it says a lot about the male allies in that fight as well. >> absolutely. she will certainly be missed but her memory lingers and what she did is very important. that will pretty much do it, i guess. why don't we just end it here? >> market check? >> a little market check. all the arrows green right now. the industrials up a half percent. nasdaq also higher, so is the s&p 500. there you got them, all of them. nasdaq up almost a full percent. thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make or break hour begins

with stocks tireless push to more new highs, with those feared october ghosts nowhere in sight. let's get a check on the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the s&p 500 tracking for its 46th new record high of 2024. you see it up there, about .8%. the dow started soft in the morning but has flipped into the green. now up half a percent. the nasdaq, though, big tech is in the harness today. galloping ahead. that nasdaq composite outperforming up almost a full percent after had it lagged for most of the third quarter. nvidia hunting for its first new high since june. you see the stock here up 2.5%, 2.8% on the day. the intraday high is just above 140 on this reignition of enthusiasm for the ai investment theme. the bond market closed today for the holiday but treasury etfs are trading lower in price. that implies further upside to yields with economic data coming in a bit better in recent weeks

and expectation for fed rate cuts being pared back. that take us to the talk of the rate. will good news on the economy continue to be treated as good for stocks? let's ask anastasia, joining me here. good to see you. so this bull market has outraced pretty much all of the expectations of strategists from the beginning of the year. it's entered a lot of challenges whether it's the seasonal weakness we were expecting or seen as too narrow in the first half. is all that together encouraging or a reason for caution to wonder if we have maybe gotten ahead of things. >> i think investors did have reason for caution to start october. you had a number of outsized moves that had to be digested, whether it was the yield spiking or the price of oil respiking or resurgence in the dollar. when i look at it, i think the market has actually managed to absorb that, and for example,

the fed said we're likely not going to cut 50 basis points for the consecutive meetings and the markets have repriced to 25 basis point cuts. we have also had to account for a little bit better growth, better pay roll, slightly higher inflation, and all of that is now in the rear-view mirror and also in the price. what's been a bumpy start to october now sort of gives way to there's a soft landing momentum, and there's not much to get in the way of that. >> yeah, i mean, it's been tough to actually look for soft spots in the fundamental story, i suppose, at least in the last little while. you mentioned the fed kind of curtailing its promise of how big rate cuts might be. we want to get to some headlines by the fed's governor, christopher waller. he's speaking as we speak. the economy is on solid footing. he says, and in fact, his revision suggests the economy is much stronger than previously thought. so clearly, casting the economy in a positive light.

inflation progress has been uneven but generally in the direction that the fed wants to see. baseline, he calls for reducing policy gradually over the next year. obviously reducing rates and normalizing policy. i guess not too different from how the markets are set up but it does reflect this idea that it's a moving target based on the little run of numbers. >> we have always known the fed is going to react to the data but it's not bad news that the data is surprising to the upside. it's not just the fed now talking about the economy being on solid footing but also corporations and specifically banks are talk about that. one of the headlines from friday, the fact that jpmorgan in its earnings report called this a soft landing, a goldilocks scenario, that's what's breathing new life into the market. when you look at atlanta fed gdp now tracking 3.2%, that's clearly supportive. and then also, the city surprise index, it was negative for quite some time. and the earnings revisions were

negative because of the weaker economic data, but we have now flipped into positive territory in terms of economic surprises and one of the things we may see if not in this reporting season then in the months out, earnings revisions should start to pick up again given how solid the economy is now. >> i think a lot of work on how much estimates for the third quarter came down, it seems like it will be an easy hurdle for results to come in ahead of that. can guess the question is where within the market seems to still have a little bit of juice left in it given that we have had not only a run in the indexes but as i mentioned the equal weighted s&p also did some catch-up. >> on the surface it's really hard to find those pockets but i actually first of all would look at the artificial intelligence trade and the mag seven trade. clearly, we have had quite an upside here in the last couple weeks but if you look at ai themed performance, there was not much in terms of outperformance in q3, and in fact, a lot of the stocks are range bound or even down a

little bit. i think after this peerious of consolidation, what's happened is a lot of earnings growth expectations have stayed where they are or maybe they have been revised higher for the ai trade. but the multiple have actually declined as a result. if i look at some of the semi-conductor ai semi-conductor multiples for example, price to earnings adjusted for growth is now below 1. so it's one of the cheapest levels we have seen in years. so i would look there. i would also look to financials. mike, the earnings season start has been absolutely rock solid for financials. whether you think about the net income margin that they're expecting to inflect higher in 2025, whether it's loan growth, whether it's charge offs, there's so much good progress being made by financials. >> you mentioned the mag seven type trade. you know, in terms of the s&p today, nvidia, apple, microsoft, those three are good for about half of the net upside in the s&p today. so clearly, you had this period

where it was more broad and now it seems some of the secular growth names are doing their part. does that make the market more fragile? you feel like we're just rotating around these themes? >> i think people are chasing pockets of opportunity. and again, you look at utilities and you had a 20% performance in q3. after that, you did a little selling. you go to where there's been some underperformance. but there's so much enthusiasm that i think people have regained as they came into september and october because we had a slew of conferences, we had a slew of analyst meetings over the last couple weeks, and this week in particular, i'm looking for taiwan semi to report on thursday. i suspect all of that is going to continue to solidify strong demand. the reason why i think people might be looking back to the mag seven, not just the semi-conductors but the other hyperscalers. in q3, we worried about they're overinvesting and are they going to monetize that. what's interesting is they might have been overinvesting this year in terms of hyperscale in

capex, it's up 40to 50%, but next year, they're likely to pare that back to 11% year over year. it could be the overinvestment occurs now and now we're going into the monetization phase? i think that's part of the reason people are looking back at the mag seven again. >> for sure. it seems to be one of the talking points. let's bring in kristina hooper of invesco and scott kronert of citi. the market itself has been migrating back in general toward morcyclical type stocks. does it have it right here? what has happened in the last few weeks that has made you modulate your view on where the right place to be or not? >> i think the market has it right in that we're likely to see cyclicals and small caps outperform. the economic is clearly slowing but it's very modest. i think we're going to see a reacceleration rather soon. and so small caps and cyclicals would be anticipating that and

behaving in advance of that. but we also have some opportunities in technology. i don't want to overlook how much significant earnings growth is coming out of the tech sector, and it's compelling. this is an environment, i think, that tolerates, that's a big tent and tolerates and supports a lot of different asset classes. and so it's one in which i think the bit of flip-flopping we're seeing in markets seems right. i think in the near term, because of uncertainty around the election and perhaps some uncertainty around the fed, we're likely to see some kind of focus on quality. but at a certain point, i think we're going to see greater outperformance by small caps and cyclicals. >> scott, i know you do a lot of work trying to figure out kind of what's priced into the market based on earnings anticipation and other factors. how does that all set up for you right now? >> well, at 24 times trailing, i think we have to acknowledge that the s&p 500 is at least fairly if not slightly overvalued, but this can persist as long as the news flow

supports it. that's where we're going into the macro condition, of course, but increasingly the q3 reporting period. our sense there is that we're likely to get what we call a beat and hold. solid q3 results but no meaningful change in full year estimates which means q4 estimates have to come down. that said, importantly for the mag seven, the megy kap growth cohort, the implied growth setup relative to where consensus is has gotten more reasonable going into q4. so we're very comfortable with a growth versus cyclicals playbook going into q4. we think there's room for both to work. defensives are probably the other odd man out in our view where they're not inexpensive. they're bordering on more expensive and a little less underlying economic sensitivity and growth drivers to support them. >> i want to jump in on the cyclicals conversation.

i agree with kristina that i think we're on the cusp of reacceleration. i have been of the belief some of the rate relief put in the system is already being felt by the markets. for example, you look at the financials reporting and see all the debt underwriting activity. that means companies are taking on the extra debt at a lower interest rate. they might be refinancing, might be doing something else with it. you look at the mortgage market, obviously it's still a challenged place, but mortgage rates have dropped pretty significantly and they're on the cusp of being at a place where a lot of people who have taken on a morgtgage in the late 18 monts might be able to refinance that and have a cost savings. and then of course, there's not a whole lot of rate exposure across the u.s. economy but there's some. if you look at leverage loans. private credit loans, a portion of commercial real estate loans they have been pegged to some

kind of derivative. as the rates reset, i think that's a positive for those cash flows. you take that on top of the already soft landing we have, i think this bodes well for cyclicals. that's why for me, mike, some of the better trades are in the financial sector. they are in the regional bank sector. so i'm looking forward for the rest of this week and next how the smaller banks hopefully are also positively tied to some of these trends. >> kristina, your sense is maybe we only get one more quarter point rate hike this year. how does this filter into the equation? >> i think markets are getting more comfortable with that idea because it's for the right reasons. because the economy seems to be stronger, more resilient than many had expected just a month ago. and so it makes sense that there's a recalibration of the fed's recalibration of monetary policy. and that would mean only one more rate cut this year, but that's okay. the fed is going to be data dependent and i think we will get significant cuts next year. it's just going to slow down the

process. >> i guess the question is, scott, as much as that does make sense and it fits together with how this market is pricing it, the fact we were in a dproeth scare, the fed is too late panic a couple months ago means things can be fickle. i wonder where do you think we are in terms of really being able to trust that this upswing in the economic numbers that we're seeing is going to have some staying power? >> i just make two points on this. the first is i get it, we're at what looks to be an inflection in terms of underlying economic activity as pertains to the industrial production and production side of the economy. that said, we do have to be aware that there could be a lagging influence to fundamentals. so sector like industrials is among the most expensive versus its own history versus other parts of the market and they're looking for ongoing frame on a lagging basis as we go through q3 reports. but all told, what i do think this underscores is that there's definitely room for fed funds to

continue to come down and obviously we're using two years and ten years as your indicator of where they might go. there's no question in my mind that the fed should be and is on a path toward lessening its degree of restrictiveness. ultimately getting to neutral. if there's a transition phase between here and there where you're still net restrictive, you're not to the point where you're actually stimulating economic activity, so what comes with soft landing is a sort of unusual risk in the markets that usually, usually when you get fed pivots it's in response to recession which means earnings have gone down and they have given you a strong snapback. if they don't come down on the earnings resilience theme that they don't have as much room to snap back. that changes the valuation picture a little bit from our perspective. >> want to give you a chance to kind of reconcile the idea of we're going to be living with perhaps fewer, slower rate cuts and the idea that small caps can

actually play some catch up. >> so, the economy is in a very good place. the fed is cutting into growth. we haven't seen this since the mid-1990s. i don't know if it will happen again this time but i'm hopeful. soon after the fed ended its brief easing cycle in '95 and '96, we started getting gdp growth with a 4 handle. i remind us all of thisbecause i think there is significant potential. that's helped by things like ai that are increasing, improving productivity, increasing growth potential. i think there's a lot of opportunity in this market. it's hard to necessarily see a crystal clear picture right now, but my gut tells me i think there are going to be better days ahead. >> anastasia, we have been talking so much about two-year anniversary of the bull market. it's been an unorthodox one. there's a lot of quirks in terms where it started. we haven't had a recession. it started and sort of continues in what people consider a late cycle environment, whether that's true or not. does that tell you anything

about the pace of gains from here or whether we might expect any change in character? >> well, mike, we haven't had a classic recession. we haven't had a recession that was determined to be a recession by nber, but the truth is manufacturing has been going through a rolling recession for quite some time. it has been a recession, it seemed to have popped up to start the year, the manufacturing gauges were over 50, and now they're sort of teetering on that break even territory once again. i would argue there's been a lot of slowdown baked into that. i think the consumer has gone through its quasi-mini recession back in the tail end of 2022 and into early 2023 because remember, inflation was quite elevated and wage growth was not actually keeping up with that, so therefore, real wages were actually negative. so that's where we worried about the adjustment, about a reset, but i think we have that reset. so now the fact we're starting from a break even of mafrer, the fact that we're starting with

consumer confidence that took a step back because we were waiting with anticipation what the result on november 5th is going to be. i actually think that's a nice reset for the economy. even though the markets maybe have not had that reset. and by the way, speaking of the elections and manufacturing and some of the cyclical momentum, i think part of the slowdown that we have seen in q3 is because people worry about putting dollars to work. i mean, in corporate capex, not knowing what the outcome of the election is going to be, so once we get past that, we have the fed rate cuts and hopefully we have some more certainty of what the administration is going to be and what the policy is going to be, so that could actually help the industrials part of the cyclical trade. >> scott, before we go, you mentioned energy as part of this sort of cyclical basket. yeah, you obviously have oil backing off again today. does energy still have that leverage to a growing economy that it has traditionally had? >> i don't think that direct

read through is as clear as it's been in the past, but what you do get with energy on the cyclical rotation dinatick is a different setup. if the broader index is flirting with more aggressive valuations, that is not true for the energy sector which is sort of midway in its 20-year lookback from a median valuation perspective. revisions have been negative, earnings growth, expectations have been coming down. everyone gets the picture here that oil prices have been under pressure. going forward, though, that setup makes it a little bit less onerous for this sector to do well through the q3 reporting period, and of course, on the fringes we have an improved china outlook potentially and the mideast as a hot spot that continues to reckon with oil price direction from here. so as a contrarian trade, going into q4, we're pretty comfortable with energy from that perspective. >> yeah, i guess a little bit of a different kind of nexus of factors there. scott, kristina, anastasia,

thanks so much. we're getting news on google. deirdre bosa is here with that. >> so speaking of energy, google announcing a deal to purchase nuclear energy from multiple small modular reactors from cairo's power. overall, it will enable 500 mega watts of new energy, enough to power roughly 400,000 homes. the backdrop are the huge energy needs in the artificial intelligence shift. why all three hyperscales are doing major energy deals this year. google wouldn't give us any financials around the investment but key to note, this is more about developing the technology for future energy needs versus deals to use existing infrastructure like the mega deals microsoft and amazon have done this year. now, smr is different from traditional reactors in that they're much smaller, thus more adaptable for localized energy needs and can benefit from a more streamlined regulatory process. because the technology still needs to be developed, google does not expect it to be

powering energy centers for at least a decade. this is a bet ai will be here for decades and by going this route, part of their energy portfolio, they will be better positioned in the future. >> fascinating how these big tech companies have found themselves getting involved in kind of building energy infrastructure. >> and the different approaches. >> yeah, for sure. deirdre, thanks so much. >> let's send it over to seema m modi. >> 40 minutes left in trade. sirius xm stock is trading on news berkshire hathaway has increased its stake to 32% in the company. they bought 3.6 million shares in sirius xm in multiple transactions wednesday through friday of last week. warren buffett has not commented on the stake. sirius xm still down around 50% so far this year. and flutter entertainment also getting a boost from wells fargo, upgrading the stock to overweight from equal weight and upgrading the price target. saying to buy the dip on the

fanduel parent company, the upgrade comes after a sell-off last week that saw the stock shed around 7% but it's up about 5% apthis hour. >> thank you. see you in a bit. >> we're just getting started. up next, warren is revealing where he sees the rally heading from here. he'll join me at post nine after this break. we're live from the new york stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell" cc.onnb you might wonder, john legend, how do you keep your voice sounding so... ...legendary? honey! and how do i keep my protection against covid-19 up to date? with a covid shot this season, designed for recent variants. you can get your covid-19 shot when getting your flu shot, if you're due for both, as recommended by the cdc.

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stock indexes are green across the board with the s&p rising to an all time intraday high earlier in the session. fed governor waller warning moments ago about the need for more caution when it comes to lowering interest rates though he says the economy is on solid footing. my next guest expects a soft landing.

joining me is warren pice. great to have you here. thanks for coming by. get to this equation, waller talking about what pace of cuts we might see. the don't fight the tape, don't fight the fed rules seem to line up bullishly, but what about this adjustment to yields and fed rhetoric? >> yeah. to me, like, really when you step back, rates are one of the big risks to markets. so thinking about longterm rates in particular. i think a lot of the rally we saw from midyear was fueled by rates falling a little bit. so when you think about what waller is saying, he's saying neutral, we have a lot of room to cut before we get to neutral. but i think maybe the market has it wrong a bit. so my -- if i was trying to pick the concern out, i would look at that and say look, the fed just cut 50 basis points and rates ripped. on the back of that. so if we do a thought experiment

where we say the fed came out tomorrow and they took the fed funds rate down to 3%, which they say is neutral is, what happens to the ten-year? i'm not sure it goes down in that scenario. so i think that's a risk the market is going to have to work with and struggle through here as we go out to the end of the year and into 2025. >> those long term yields have risen of course along with market implied inflation expectations once the fed cut, but also the economy, the numbers coming in a little firmer than expected. so i guess is there a level on yields that you would get more concerned? >> yeah, i mean, our view, we have done a lot of work on this, is not so much about a level. it's more about rate of change. so at this moment in time, given where we came from, we look at a 63-day window which is like one quarter, and if we were to see a quick move up to 4.15, 4.2 on the ten-year, historically, you start seeing the market get some indigestion.

it's less about a level and more about the pace of the move in rates, and the slower move in rates seems to be that stocks can digest that, like earlier in the year, we had rates rising, market rally. that's about the pace. >> if that's potentially one of the visible risks out there in terms of what happens on rates getting a little unanchored, what's the baseline from your point of view in terms of the market have it right here in terms of saying the fed is easing into an earnings recovery and all the rest that we have been talking about. >> yeah, well, that's the big picture. we keep oscillating between growth scare and now we're seeing a reacceleration. if you zoom out, that what a soft landing looks like. that's the back and forth that a soft landing looks like. so we're still positive on the market. when you look out to year end, it feels like we're pretty bullish, but strategist targets are 6% out to year end below where the market trades right now. if you go back to history, october 15th, historically,

that's the most bearish relative to the market that strategists have ever been. when i look at it, there's still fuel for this chase. that's the dynamic we have been playing all year. we think strategists were too bearish, people were too underpositioned coming into the year and they're going to tin to chase the market. i think when we turn the calendar next year it will be about valuations and rates and things like that. >> it's interesting because in the first half of the year, folks who were underinvested or didn't think the market could do a lot to the upside were resorting to saying it's such a narrow rally. that's been really undermined over the last three months. you had a broadening out. the mega caps have really reset on a relative basis and maybe the market is in better balance. where from here do you think that dynamic goes? >> well, i think a big part of the broadening out has been a rate sinceativity story. so i would expect to see some mean reversion where the cap weighted s&p 500 starts to outperform equal weight through

year end at least. i would avoid given this period we're at where i think the bond market is kind of pricing out that recession risk that it had priced in from midyear, i would avoid the utilities and real estate and rate sensitive sectors right now. i would be looking more to buy into high quality tech that has been pulling back and reset sentiment in a lot of ways. that's our playbook. i think you have to go back to more of the dynamics we saw first half versus q3 where market, big cap tech outperformed in some of the other areas. >> pendulum swinging back possibly. quickly, i know you look a lot at housing trends and momentum within housing activity. is that something we're going to have to be worried about as rates go where they're going? >> that to me, again, that gets wrapped into the risk side of it. if the ten-year, we have seen the lows in the ten-year for a bit, which i think we have, and a lot of people are arguing saying we want to see the ten-year at 3.5 or 3.25, and i

heard people say the fed needs to go slower to invoke that. from my point of view, the only way we get that is if recession fears come back into the market. you don't want that reason to drive rates down. so the mortgage margt is going to have to start to work more in that i think 6.25, 6.5 range. i think we're good enough for a muddle through environment. >> warren, great to talk to you. >> all right, up next, john is back and breaking down why he's forecasting a bit of a bumpy ride for stocks ahead. "closing bell" will be right back.

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the bull market starting off its third year with the s&p 500 hitting a record high. our next guest sees more room for stocks to run from here but says it could be a bit of a bumpy ride. let's bring in macro risk adviser chief technical adviser at post nine. good to see you, john. you're deferring to the trend. you're saying there's really nothing that the s&p is doing wrong right here. but fill in the story. >> yeah, there's nothing really wrong with it. good solid up trend. no discernible top patterns all that. my job was to call the s&p, easy. still think 6,000 before the end of the year. when i look into next year, perhaps first quarter, 6300, maybe a 66 handle at some point next year. we keep grinding higher in this

up trend. support at 6550 until we break underneath that -- >> 5650. >> yes. >> what else is there to keep an eye on if that's the case? what's happening under the surface or across markets? >> a couple things. when it comes to volatility, there's potential for a liquidity vacuum. i think we'll get that election shake out but i think it will be at a higher perch, maybe closer to 59 or 6,000 and then we'll get the pullback. but that should be embraced and pushed to the upside. keep buying cyclicals, emerging markets, et cetera. there's a lot underneath the surface, but the trend for the equity markets is still on track. >> 6,000 is like less than 3% from here. so we continue to kind of run ahead of our mental model for a kind of where we should be. that's how bull markets go. on the bond market side, yields definitely have gotten more than

perky. if anything, they look stretched in the short term. how do you see that going and how should we be thinking about that path? >> we have to pay close attention to what's going on with interest rates. we take a step back, interest rates are in a secular up trend. they put the low in around covid. they're going to be going up for my lifetime and your lifetime. ten-year yield going up over time. low end was going do be 3.25, but i was looking at that 3.60 level. when the fed cut 50, where was the 10-year, 3.60. you have to pay very close attention to that. now the question is, is that consolidation phase over or not? i'm leaning toward the case that you're probably darn close to the end of the consolidation phase. maybe 4.20 acts as a resistance level. i think the consolidation phase is close to being over. >> therefore, we should be prepared for yet higher yields from here.

>> correct. >> what's your take on the interplay between that and stocks and the kinds of stocks in the economy? in other words, is it going to be okay if it's happening for the right reasons? >> correct, currently it's still okay for the right reasons. i have shown a chart in the past that would show ininverse relationship between interest rates and breadth. interest rates are going up, breadths have gotten better. the department is shaking that off. so long as it's not a huge spike up, maybe the fiscal grenade that will go off that freaks people out, that doesn't seem to be the case. macro sentiment was so bearish going into the fed that this is part of the resetting. i didn't see this as being a hard landing. i thought it was going to be a soft or no landing and interest rates have been showing us that. it's been an orderly pullback and now we're resolving it higher. the way i would play it is to look more at cyclicals. >> the bond market was maybe hunched down for potential hard landing. but the stock market up five

months in a row and the s&p doing what it's been doing, that doesn't in itself suggest that recession is near? >> it's kind of important just to kind of trade what you see and get biased by all the noise. listen, i'm on the sell side. you have publisher peril, but in reality, take a step back, everything has been fine with the s&p. what's been interesting in my regard for the last six or seven months or so is breadth has ga gotten so much better. most of the stock market was in a bear market and started to join the party. there are stats saying this is the second year of a bull market. i would argue that maybe we're still in the first year of it and since now just becoming broad based. >> that first year, it was really noisy because the ai thing hit. and it seemed to sort of take over for the rest of the market. so it's hard to handicap all that. what's your read right now of sentiment and whether we have to be wary of it? >> i would say when it comes to sentiment it's bullish but i

would not say it's euphoric. there's still a lot of haters out there. when i talk about buying cyclicals, i was talking about buying cyclicals a couple weeks ago, crickets. wanted to buy oil, no way. i think em in china is a generational bull market, just getting started. crickets. there's still a lot of hate out there. i use that line which is when people stop worrying then i start to worry. it's still a hated bull market in my opinion. >> interesting. at least in those pockets. john, great to see you. thank you. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. seema is back with those. >> coming up, we'll reveal why one mobile tech company is moving higher and what analysts at goldman sachs have to say about it, next.

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coming up on 17 minutes until the closing bell. the s&p 500 up .9%. let's get back to seema for a look at key stocks to watch. >> we'll start with ibotta shares after goldman sachs upgraded the stock. the risk to reward is attractive and citing the cash back mobile platform's partnerships with walmart and instacart as attractive growth opportunities. the company's shares are still down about 20% year to date. and hims and hers health surging by more than 6%, 9% at this hour, after it said the fda would allow compounding pharmacies to sell their own versions of eli lilly's mun

jarrow for the first time, for the time being. the fda agreeing to reconsidering its last month decision to take the active ingredient off its shortage list which would have limited compounders' ability to sell their versions of the drug. the telehealth provider is up more than 120% year to date. pretty nice run. mike. >> it is, and tacking on a bit at the end here as you mentioned. as the s&p also trades at the highs of the day. seema, thank you. let's send it over to kate for a look at the move in sofi today. >> so sofi is getting a boost after the company announced a $2 billion deal for its loan platform business. this is with fortress, a key part of sofi's strategy, a way to generate more feed based revenue for the company. it's matching prequalified borrowers to loan origination partners. the ceo saying, the platform business is an important part of our strategy to serve the financial needs of members and

diversify toward more feed based sources of revenue. the street is liking this one. analysts saying details were limited but they view the agreement, quote, positively and potentially demonstrates some improving investor demand for sofi's paper. dan muzulo saying it's a rebuttal, it's a vote of confidence and also helping shares of upstart which are up more than 16% today. sofi up double digits as well. >> familiar names, kate. interesting looking four-year charts. a huge mountain and then a decline and now a big recovery. so we'll see how that goes. kate, thank you. still ahead, we'll tell you what's behind the rally in chip stocks with nvidia on track to close at a new record. plus, ed is standing by to break down the final moments of today's trade.

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plus ned davis research's ed clissold breaks down the final crucial moments of the trading day. seema, four months without a record high, yet the stock is still up 180% year to date. >> getting a lot closer. in conversation, nvidia's ceo, jenson wong, he shared his plans on how they plan to protect their competitive advantage and deliver faster, more competitive chips every year. there's training the model and then actually applying the ai applications, also known as inference, which wong says is becoming a bigger opportunity, accounting for 40% of nvidia's data center revenue with that number set to go up, and pretty positive reaction to the comments he made over the weekend. research analysts writing nvidia's chips are, yes, expensive, but its architecture offers the best return on investment and goldman upping its price target. td cowen naming nvidia its top pick. this week, earnings from chip

suppliers will provide important color really for the entire sector. >> an interesting tell, and with that much closer to visibility into 2025, when some were worried that all this capex spending on ai processors might slow. >> exactly, so in that capex number of course will once again being a topic of interest as they get set to report. we know the semi-conductors at the end of the day are the biggest beneficiary of the large budgets going to artificial intelligence. >> seema, thank you. leslie, the banks continue to run. after those early reports we got last week. >> yeah, that's right. most large bank stocks getting a boost today after wells fargo and jpmorgan gave better than expected forecasts on friday. today, we have a one-day break from bank earnings and tomorrow, we'll get numbers from bank of america, goldman sachs, and citigroup. top lines are expected to hold steady for those three firms. analysts say bank of america and citi will report eps decline. as net interest income comes in

lower for the quarter. goldman sachs is expected to show a jump in earnings due to several special items from a year ago, including that write down on its balance sheet investments that created a hit to earnings at the time in 2023. as was the case with friday's reporters, the outlooks tomorrow will be key. analysts and investors want a clearer sense of how these firms are navigating the new rate environment and be sure to tune in to "squawk on the street" tomorrow for our interview with bank of america's ceo, brian moynihan. >> for sure. leslie, thank you very much. ed, let's talk about just where this market sits here. as we get through october and it seems as if we had people kind of tensed up perhaps for some volatility, have not gotten it. if you go down your bull market checklist, what does it tell you now? >> usually when the market does really well during a seasonally weak time of the year, we interpret that as being bullish,

that the market can withstand the headwinds other than saying it's overbought. for example, when the s&p has been up 20% through september, during the fourth quarter, it's up an average of another 4%. the fourth quarter is usually a pretty good quarter so it's not markedly better but it tells you the rally trends to continue when you have a good start to the year. >> we're also paying some attention here to this maybe equilibrium moving around between where bond yields are, where expectations for what the fed might do, earnings coming up, and a relatively high valuation. where does that all come together for you? >> it's a really fine balancing line, so far the market has been able to walk that line very well. for example, the citigroup economic surprise index which had been really positive, meaning a lot of economic data coming in better than expected, was negative for a few months

earlier this year. recently turned positive. that tends to be good for stocks. the caveat to that is when the economic data looks a little better, interest rates tend to rise. we have seen a decent move from the ten-year treasury yield. we don't want it to rise too quickly. if we get, say, 4.30, 4.50 in the next few weeks, that could change the balance where there's more concern about no landing, the fed not being able to cut rates as much as the fed wants to. so right now, that's in pretty good shape. on the earnings side of things, we're looking at quarter on quarter acceleration earnings growth again in q3, which is positive. the difference between q3 and what we saw in q2 and q1 is expectations are much higher. consensus estimates are jumping from mid-single digit year over year to more like mid-teens year over year. a little of a higher hurdle for the market to climb. you have to balance all these things out. but overall, it's a pretty positive environment.

>> and ed, i know you have been making the case from way back that if the fed is actually moving more slowly as it lowers interest rates, doing it in a deliberate way, that tends to be better for stocks. it means they're not rushing to save an economy that's faltering. that seems to be what we're headed for right now. it actually brings me around to this idea of, you know, in this pile-up of positives, what would you look for to suggest that maybe people are overbelieving it or investors are getting a little bit too overexcited about admittedly good fundamentals? >> you're right, michael. when the fed has cut four or fewer times in a year on average, the s&p is up about 25% in that first year. not a prediction, just tells you what's happened versus only 5% when the fed has cut very quickly. so in terms of what could go wrong, i think we want to go back to that earnings discussion. if analysts who usually are pretty optimistic, if those

estimates prove to be wildly optimistic, that would be a big concern. and so if that happens, or if interest rates were to rise too quickly, we would be pretty concerned that the fed wouldn't be able to cut at all. that's a pretty dangerous environment when the fed only cuts once or twice and has to reverse course because they lose credibility, inflation rears its head again, and then we have to deal with to some extent what we were dealing with a few years ago with higher than expected inflation. >> all right, we seem a little short of that threshold for now. ed, thank you very much. as we get into the close, market gains moderating just slightly but still a very positive day. the s&p 500 up more than .75%. it will close at a new high. 5860 or there about. all of the other indexes higher with the nasdaq leading. that's going to do it for "closing bell." we'll send it to overtime. >> that bell