3:00 eastern, we have generally johnson, and matt brown, he's the host here. he is the founder, chairman and ceo of k symbol. show, what do you have for us on "final trades"? >> the joe etf is 28% financial exposure, apollo, private equity, sticking with the theme of your conference. >> okay, all right, josh? >> amazon. undervalued. i think the quarter is going to be okay. >> okay. jen? >> reits. plenty out there besides office, scott. >> good stuff. see you on "closing bell," everybody. ♪ ♪ welcome to "the exchange." i'm brian sullivan, in for kelly

evans today. here's what's ahead. oil is down, even with the threat of an israel attack on iran. we'll tell you what changed overnight, and where oil may be headed. and this stock, and the sector it belongs to, not typically considered a growth trade, but your market guest says, should be. she's here to make the case and why you may want to own it from here. flying, shipping, and storing. that is the theme for today's earnings exchange. we have the trade and the print on united airlines. all that ahead. but as always, let's begin with your markets and dom chu with the numbers. >> we're fractionally negative across the board, but not without earlier in the day, setting a record high. we have rarified air that was hit early on for the dow industrials, so i'll put a star up there. a record level there. the dow at 42,937, off about 1/3 of 1% declines. a similar decline for the s&p 500, which is down about 23

points. at the lows of the session, we were down 28. we were up 11 points a t the high. so, again, drifting towards those session lows right now. and the nasdaq down about three quarters of 1%, 18,359 for the nasdaq composite index, down about 130, 1402 now points. one of the reasons why that technology trade is failing a little bit more today has to do with semiconductors. im's been a two of headliners so far today. wolfspeed secured a big grant from the chips act, also a new round of funding from investors, shares up 23%. asml holdings, biggest tech company in all of europe, down 17% after its quarterly results disappointed, especially on the bookings side of things and they cut their full-year guidance for 2025, as well. so that's the big downside drag. that makes kla corps down 13%.

applied materials down 10%. they're the two biggest laggards in the s&p. and nvidia is down 4%, as well. another thing to keep a close eye on is the record high we saw in the biggest publicly traded company in the world, that's apple, bucking the overall trend, up about 1.5%, a record high here. there goes the star. a new ipad mini with apple intelligence features built in announced today, as well. a lot of positive analyst commentary with regard to the new iphone and the potential sales it could have in the future. all of those things mixed together, drive a record high for apple. >> for those of us new to "the exchange," what is this blue star, the dominic chu seal of approval? >> sit a tfactual check on whether a stock has made a high. >> so a lot more ahead this hour, but we are going to kick it off with oil and energy. crude oil, maybe some good news

for you drivers, back below $70 a barrel. there are a couple of reasons why. number one, you have the iea trimming its demand forecast for the third month in a row thanks to slowdown this china. remember, they still see growth, but just slower growth. more importantly, new reports overnight that israel is willing to not strike iranian oil or nuclear targets. instead, israel may hit purely military targets. those reports calming concerns of a major supply shock, which had moved oil higher. fluid situation, many things can change. let's dig into all of it. joining us now is aei's derek scissors, he'll join us in a moment. but helene craft and john kildorf are both here. helene, some calming with these

reports about maybe israel won't hit back on iran directly on the oil and energy side. i'm just surprised that the market appears to be taking all the risk off the table. >> right. the complete evaporation of geopolitical risks in regards to this conflict has come out of the market. so the question is, is this decision by israel to not strike iranian oil facilities, is that something's going to hold? if that is the case, will iran stand down? is this going to be an israeli strike like we saw in april with a targeted strike? is it going to be something like that, or are we going to see a serious israeli strike on the iranian military side and would that create an escalatory spiral. remember, iran has already warned countries in the region, that any assistance to israel, they could be targeted. so is the israeli action going to lead to an off ramp or

escalation? i think it a es too soon to say. >> that's it. citi group had a note out this morning where they said there's just a lot of oil in the world, but they have a worst case scenario of $120 if things were to -- big if, i get it. talk to us about where oil stands fundamentally versus geopolitically. >> well, i think you can't exclude completely the geopolitical factor. >> no way, zero. >> but i will say, looking at what iran has tried to do over the past year now, to me, their military prowess and/or their stomach to do something significant is lacking. so i have a hard time anymore pricing in much in the way of a geopolitical risk premium as it relates to iran. if i were any of iran's neighbors, i wouldn't be afraid of any retaliation from them. fundamentally though, brian, look, when you have the united states' position continuing to

be what it is, number one oil producer, major exporter of crude, ramp up in gasoline exports to the rest of the world, the lng exports we're doing, the guyana reservoir -- >> brazil. maybe going to four plus million next year. >> libya figuring out it's not in their interest not to sell their oil to the global market and play along with the opec plus quotas. and you have china also, as well. china is also sitting on this middle east situation, telling the players involved, don't disrupt our oil supply and wreck our economy. >> you could make a salient argument for $50 oil, right? >> no doubt about it. especially if the saudis follow through on adding more oil to the market. >> so halim, i'll go back to you on that. i know who you talk to, it's at the highest levels, and we'll

say this, we always talk about the fed put in the stock market, sort of the idea the fed's got your back, they can cut rates. is there a saudi put? if something were to happen to iran, the saudis, i think, very quickly, could fill that hole in the global markets. >> well, first i would say that the white house was sufficiently concerned about iranian retaliation and an escalatory spiral that they worked very hard to get israel to walk back its target list. so i think they're taking seriously in washington the potential that iran could escalate. we saw in 2019 that iran did have the capacity to hit regional energy infrastructure, and quite significant regional targets. but if we think about potentially some type of blowup or deescalation, the question is what will opec do? and i do think the saudi also be in a very cautious mode about bringing barrels back if there is some time for escalation.

they'll want to see that there's a physical supply disruption before they jump in front of this. they also have an opec field that extends through 2025. i don't think they want to raise that up. but the question that john was bringing up about what the saudis are going to do in december, that would hinge on what happened with iraqi production, whether they comply with the terms to compensate for overproduction. that will dictate the pace at which saudi arabia brings back their voluntary bundling in barrels, not the collective for 2025. >> the one thing i want to remind the audience about, john, is what we talked about. yes, the iea is trimming its demand growth forecast. i want to remind everybody, they still see growth. i think that they're not cutting from where they were. it's just a slower pace of add. i do think that is something we need to remember, even with a world that is awash in oil.

>> and things could tighten up, brian. the structure of the market does reflect that. so we're not out of the woods. we're never out of the woods with this. >> it's oil. one mine in the strait of hormuz. >> or even the talk of one, for sure. but i do believe, again, given these other reservoirs, given the saudi's capacity, that it's really hard to make a bull case for oil short of the middle east situation really escalating into something spectacular. >> and the white house certainly can ask israel to do specific things. the white house cannot tell israel to do -- israel is a sovereign nation that will ultimately do what's in the best interest of its country and itself. so there is still that risk, back to your point. i think you alluded to it at the top, israel strikes something, not energy. iran does something back, and

israel says, enough's enough. >> and brian, you need to read that washington post article closely. administration officials do acknowledge that if you have israel hit something hard in iran, like let's say that do do a serious strike on a military facility. let's say there are casualties, and the revolutionary guard. there is a significant chance iran could respond back in a way that just escalates this, and it's not clear at all whether israel has taken off the cards a potential strike on iran's oil facilities this that type of facility. are they holding the oil card in reserve depending on what the iranian response looks like? >> yeah, and there's a big -- listen, iranian olitics, i'm sure you know a lot more about it than i do, it's kind of a vague world from the western side, we don't get a lot of real inside baseball. but everybody i've talked to and what i've read suggests while

the ayatollahs may be the more aggressive, that the relatively new president of iran is trying to strike a more moderate tone on the domestic economy. so there is still some good news chance that iran does, for lack of a better term, stay calm, is there not? >> well, that is the question, will they behave like they did in april? remember, when you had that israeli surgical strike in april, the iranians came out and essentially said okay, we're done with this round for now. the question is, who's going to be calling the shots in terms of what happens with the israeli strike. will it be the iranian president? he's not seen as someone having a lot of sway over military affairs. will it be the revolutionary guard? people say that iranian ballistic missile attacks that we saw earlier this month, which went beyond what the white house was expecting, it was the guardsmen who basically orchestrated that. so the question is, who is going

to be dictating policy in iran when israel does launch its strike? >> brian, i would have to point out that the israelis took out a senior hamas leader in tehran itself during a funeral time. if the iranians aren't going to respond to things like that, now they have taken out senior iranian generals from the irgc and still nothing? then this sort of flailing missile attacks on israel twice, there was just a casualty or two, not to make light of that, but iran has -- iran -- the worries about iran, i think, are considerably overblown. >> the market agrees with you. you have oil below $70. and i look at the live website for tankers. the persian gulf, arabian gulf, is full of ships. so clearly, the shipping market and oil buyers and sellers right now have not been too scared off.

thank you both very much. now, let's get to the china angle of this story, because this goes to the demand side. because we have seen a slowdown in demand, in china, in part, for a lot of reasons. number one, fast-paced, cheap ev adoption, slowing economic growth, more people traveling by train. a lot of things. let's talk more about this now. joining us is derek scissors, senior fellow at the american enterprise institute. where does china demand stand right now? >> it's hard to imagine a big spike in china demand. the economy right now is quite weak. we're going to get gdp friday morning in beijing, and they're probably going ining to say 4. growth, but it's not credible. because chinese monetary supply, they also announce it declined

7% in the first three yaquarter. you just can't have narrow money decline that much and then say gdp rises 5%. so they're going to exaggerate the strength of the economy. it's weak. we know that from sentiment and from their own monetary figures, and we know it from stimulus. the stimulus case, i think the oil market has responded properly to chinese stimulus. first of all, it's vague. second, it looks to be mostly transfers to local governments. local governments have a debt problem, the central government takes over the debt problem, fine. but that's not really stimulus. they might spend more money, but they might spend more on evs or solar or other projects. so there could be a little bit of an upside in chinese stimulus, but that weighs against the long-term trends and the current weakness of the economy. the oil market is reading china right that there's not much to be optimistic about there. >> what about the rest of the world? i understand china is a massive

consumer of petroleum and refined products, but india now has more people than china does, this massive growth in non-industrialized nations that are becoming industrialized, and to my earlier point at the top, opec and the iea have different numbers but both still see growth, just slightly slower growth. >> right. i think if you looked at india or indonesia, which is getting up near 300 million people itself, for the future, those are both bullish for oil. the case against it is can they replace china? maybe not. as we lose chinese demand. india's absolutely going ining demand more oil. they're not get thing very quickly, though. so if you want to be sort of long-term, semi bullish on oil, india and indonesia is a good

story. but it's not going to push the market up fourth quarter or the beginning of next year. >> again, oil is one of the reasons i really like talking about this market, is that it's su supply/demand. it is one of the true global markets out there. you heard our conversation about there, pure math, supply/demand, take the geopolitics out of it. could you also make the case for $50 oil when you look at supply/demand, which i'm sure you do, it's pretty much covered on the supply side. >> yeah, that's a decision by the major producers, of which the united states is one. i don't think anyone thinks the world chi is going to pull the price of oil up, that we're heading into a boom year in 2025. so it's not going to be on the demand side. so if the major producer, saudi arabia, of course, but also the united states and several other countries, you mentioned what's

going on in latin america. if they want to produce more oil, then $50 is in reach. because demand is going to have fairly limited upside, it's a question whether the suppliers like higher prices or higher volume. >> yeah, and that's the whole market share versus higher price battle that the -- the battle of words right now, we'll see if it turns into a battle of actions. opec is supposed to meet in person on october 1st. we'll see. they've moved some meetings. i think the world's energy journalists are hoping that meeting happens in person. just quickly, macro, china. where is this going? demographic clip, xi jinping probably president for life. almost self-named, you know what i'm talking about with the communist party. where does china end up? will the stimulus work? will this reinvigorate an economy that's just tried to real estate?

>> the stimulus is not going to work for more than a couple of quarters. there's also this stuff about if we spend enough money, magic will happen. it doesn't work that way. you can get better quarters, you can have a better fourth quarter than a third quarter. so if you're looking at can stimulus improv the economy for a couple of quarters, they can it could. we haven't seen what the stimulus is yet, but in the longer term, it's what you said. demographic is going to kill them. they are limited from a lot of debt. they rap up a lot of debt with their stimulus program in 2009. so the trend in the short term is hard to see, because it's a policy choice. but in the medium to long-term, the trend is down. if you expect more from china macro economicty, you're not going to get it. in demands linked to ageing, they'll have a lot of that demand, but you won't get macro economic boosts from china,

because they're heavily indebted. xi jinping doesn't like the private sector and they are a rapidly aging company. >> it's hard to control the private sector. we are just getting started. we have the action, the story and trade on airplanes, big trurs and warehouses. up next, the guest is a growth investor. this is your mystery chart. we'll tell you what it is, coming up. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc. when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset. so how do you invest in gold? sandstorm gold royalties is a publicly traded company offering a diversified portfolio of mining royalties in one simple investment.

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welcome back to "the exchange." as you can see, or i'll tell you if you're on the radio, the markets today are a mix. you have the dow down about 0.4 of 1%. but the small caps, the russell 2,000 is up nearly 1%. the nasdaq a little bit lower. here's an rbi for you, the s&p 500 closing at its 46th record high this year. so, where now though? with all these record highs, do you find growth and opportunity? your next guest is looking to health care as maybe the place to be, and a moment ago, we showed you or told you about a mystery chart, certainly not a household name. it was alcon. it's a switzerland based maker

of contact lenses and surge chal pro -- surgical instruments. let's bring in emily lavell. emily -- >> hi, how are you? >> here is a dad joke, what do you and your team say in this contact lens makeer? >> i was wondering what the mystery chart was going to be too. >> you gave us the chart, emily. >> happy to talk about contact lenses. i think it dove tails really well into the discussion you were having earlier with your previous guests about china. we are a fundamental growth investor. within our portfolio, we want to be exposed to diversified sources of growth, and you know, one of the clearest structural trends that we see globally is in aging operation. as the population ages, the

demand for cataract surgery, for contact lenses increases across the world. and you know, china, the united states, europe, these are trends that we see sort of across the world. so as international growth investors, you know, it's a clear area of focus for us, no pun intended. so alcon, you know, is a leader in providing not only contact lenses, so this is a pretty stable market with three or four main players in the contact lens market. we really like the competitive nature of the market. we like the pricing power that companies have. but alcon is also one of the global leaders in the equipment lenses for cataract surgery. this is a market with even higher barriers to entry. the demand for cataract surgery grows about 4% every year, and that's simply because of the population that's aging into

cataracts. everybody is going to get cataracts in their life if they live to 65, 70 years old. so that's really the reason we like alcon. we think it's a good, steady grower. they're innovative. not only do they have this surgical component, but they have an interesting ocular pharmaceutical eye drop optionality that could play out in the next few years. so we think the market tends to fade these companies quickly, and we think it will last longer than that. >> it's not just need-based. i met somebody with pink eyes a couple weeks ago. i realized it was colored contacts. it's the narcissism trade, you can change your eye color with contacts. and europe, it's got a lot of problems, switzerland doing better. but european stocks as a whole now, sort of trade at a discount, almost merely because

they are in europe? >> you know, the discount that we see between the s&p 500 and, you know, the rest of the world has been present for many years. you're right to say that part of the reason for that is just because growth outside of the u.s. has been slower. and so some of that discount is warranted. however, we can selectively find really interesting and world leading companies outside of the united states. you mentioned europe, for example. there we find leaders in the semiconductor space. we find leaders in health care. we talked about alcon, but novo nordisk is a leader in the gl-1 space which is a transformative platform in the treatment of diabetes and other areas. so we're not paying so much attention to the macro, as we are looking at the fundamentals of the businesses that are this those countries. and in europe, a lot of

businesses have a lot of exposure outside of europe, simply because growth in europe has been slower over the last two decades. >> yes, it has. emily, i love it. a brand new name, alcon. we're watching it. have a great day. thank you. >> you too, brian. coming up, ai can either be a killer or a catalyst. a lot of it depends on the industry you're talking about and the business model. and another bonus mystery chart. that name you're looking at could be in trouble. plus, we head to break. one group today that is working has to do with the blooming onion. restaurants and blooming brands, cheesecake factory, brinker, they're all up very nicely. a little r ireauntunn stras today. we're back. the same gear,earing you feel a sense of connectedness and belonging right away. and our shirts from custom ink help bring us together. we make it easy to wow all your groups

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good afternoon. welcome back to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen with your news update at this hour. a georgia state judge ruled today that local election officials must certify election results, saying concerns of fraud or abuse will be settled in court. it comes as a republican member of the fulton county election

board went to court claiming she was required to refuse to certify results if she believed the results were wrong or unreliable. nearly 1/3 of the surveillance cameras along the southern u.s. border are not working. that's according to an internal border patrol memo that says the outages are due to severe technical problems and blames the faa, which services the cameras. the memo said border patrol leaders are considering replacing the agency with a contractor and faa spokesperson declined to contract. get your panda cam ready. the giant pandas are home at the national zoo. the pair of pandas arrived in the u.s. this morning via a fedex panda flight. they bring bears! they were trucked over to the zoo. you had to be there and sign for delivery, brian. it's part of a ten-year breeding and research agreement between the china and u.s.

that's something we can apparently agree on. the pandas like the bamboo and they arrived by fedex. love it. >> did they drill giant holes in the top of the truck? you ever catch a frog and put nit a mayonnaise jar and punch a hole in top for it to breathe? >> you have to be there to sign and take delivery, that's the key. >> that joke was purely pawful. >> very good. meantime, the mad dash to develop and deploy ai chips intensified. amazon now leaking a new deal with a startup called data bricks, in which it will use ai chip training the ai model. ai training ai. kate rooney is here to make sense of all of this, and how it could spell a new chapter the ai race as part of today's "tech check." >> brian, great to see you. this is key to amazon's

long-term strategy in ai, looking to compete with nvidia by offering a cheaper option. as part of this five-year deal with databricks, they have agreed to use amazon's custom trips that are going to power the training, . databricks did buy mosaic last year for $1.3 billion. the big draw here to amazon, and those chips, it's all about price. consensus in silicon valley has been that amazon's chips are not quite as powerful as nvidia's, so this is seen as the discount version out there. amazon says that customers pay 40% less than they would if they used other hardware. and amazon has leaned on this partnership route and this model. they have struck sealed with sap, anthropic, to train ai models. dan ives telling me that databricks, it's another stamp of approval for their chips.

he expects more partnerships to get chips out there. amazon, the only alternative to nvidia. you have amd, microsoft, google, all developing their own ai chips. and then the strategy that's key to that long-term competition. think of it as a marathon race. so openai, microsoft, google, they might have won the first ten miles of that marathon. amazon has been in the race, chugging along, but data centers is how they could pull ahead in the back half of the marathon. >> another day, another new development in ai. kate, thank you. all right. on deck, we fly, float, and store stuff. it's all coming up on "the exchange."

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welcome back. here's a sort of middle, what do flying, shipping and storing stuff have in common? the answer, kind of a trick question, not much, except all three have big-name companies rolling out their earnings this

week. and they just happen to be the names and themes behind today's edition of "earnings exchange." our cnbc contributor jeff is here to make sense of these trades. all right, jeff, you're a chicago guy, i'm a newark guy. so let's talk about a company i guarantee both of us know very well, united airlines. shares, soaring this year, up almost 60%. but some new concerns about future demand, delta's recent report didn't help. but overall, though, analysts still optimistic on the stock. one sell rating. 21 buys. what's your take on united airlines? >> my take is i want to trim and profit. you're right, i know we fly a ton, unfortunately not together, but we see demands pick up. business wise, as well as retail and pleasure. so it's interesting to see that yes, it's up 65%, but it only makes sense to take profits here. if you have profits, this is the only one that's up by the way, i

think it makes sense to trim here. i do own delta, but bigger question, united airlines, it's 6.5 times pe. so that's cheap relative to the situation. so in this $21 billion market cap company still has more friendliness, if you will. i do want to trim and take profits. >> trim and take profits. by the way, catch united airlines ceo scott kirby, cnbc exclusive interview with phil and the "squawkbox" team tomorrow. next up, we go to the roads. jp hunt, shares are down a little bit this year. they have warned about a longer than expected industry headwinds hitting them here. not a stock we talk about you have. what is your take on j pjb hunt. >> i think it's an opportunity to buy here. if you look at the dow jones

transports, that dispersion, the widest we have seen going back to the '90s when i was still wearing my mull net high school. so it's going to be interesting. jb hunt under the radar. i think as long as you have an understanding, you can buy it here despite the fact it has been a lagger all year. >> now we're going to round out the hat trick, or trifecta, whatever you want to call it, that is prologis, giant warehouse company, stock has been down. analysts say they see risk because rent growth and demand continue to slow. still, jeff, the company did report strong leasing momentum, but i will note that this stock has been stuck in a warehouse, the price on the stock, you see what i did there? the price on the stock is the same as wit was two years ago a

the market keeps making record highs. >> i want to be a buyer. it's been stuck in the mud, it has the ability to recover. how does it differentiate itself? it has strategic, high-quality locations. yes, we are concerned about the softening of the market, but that's priced in. again, you have for considerate of your entry here, maybe self-puts into this name. i think this is a buy. yes, it's down year-to-gdate again. this is two names i'm buying on the dip. >> before we let you go, the markets up yesterday, new record highs. a mixed trade today. you might have heard about the election we have coming up. i wonder, what do you think? are we going to see some big move either way in the election or people like you and hedge funds are going to say, let's just sit tight and see how things break? >> i think people are prepared for this movement the next couple of weeks. you see in the vix, yes, it's

not above 30 or 40, but you're seeing the ten-year note, and asml today, maybe that was the leadership we were looking for. maybe that's telling us this ai recent craze, because the market has been up eight out of the last nine weeks, now saw nvidia up. i do think that there is some vulnerability here. we're at all-time highs. this is a great time to buy puts, use some of that 20%, buy some downside insurance, because there's nothing better than insurance when you don't need it. >> be optimistic, but be wary of other things that could happen. jeff, great stuff. thank you very much. >> see you. one other stock on the move today is battery macon enphase energy, the stock at 92.5, so the lower target still above

where the stock is now. but enphase was over $300 a share just two years ago. that is one mover. coming up, some other big-name stocks thayone tkn out.t u edo ow your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our advanced matching helps find talented candidates, so you can connect with them fast.

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welcome back to "the exchange." want to give you an update. we said the markets were mixed. here's why. the russell 2,000 small-cap stocks are doing well today. up 0.8 of 1%. but the dow, s&p and nasdaq are all lower. again, keep in mind, we're coming off record highs. more records yesterday. also, a bunch of consumer stocks that are on the move this hour. let's blast through them. you have walgreens on pace for its best day in nearly 16 years. haven't said that in a while. they beat on the top and bottom line, but probably not why the stock is up. walgreens today saying it will

close the doors on about 1200 stores in the next three years. hopefully, some of the impacted employees can find new locations to work at. a different story, at least in the markets. and coty, shares are down. they reaffirmed full-year guidance but trimmed their fiscal first quarter outlook, warned of slower u.s. growth. on track for its worst day since may of 2021. and home depot, hitting another all-time high. no clear catalyst today, but truist hiking their trprice targets yesterday, noting that more than 7500 stores had been temporarily closed due to hurricane milton. coming up, here is one last look at our second mystery chart of the day. this stock, down about 36% this year. but our next guest thinks the

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♪ and welcome back to "the exchange."

shares of duo lingo extending yesterday's losses after citizen's jnp downgraded the stock to market perform despite anticipating a third quarter beat. the share price had got too hot. stock is up nearly 80% in the past year. benefitting probably large part from the ai hype as it folds the technology into its language learning products. and your next guest expects ai to continue to be a catalyst for duolingo and other names he covers, but he says there's actually one where it could be a killer. and that is shutterstock. now shutterstock was actually our second mystery. up a little bit today, but it's had a rough run the last couple months. let's go to andrew boon who covers internet stocks at citizen's jnp. an drurks thank you for coming on. >> thank you for having me. >> shutterstock, let's start there. so ai -- i think your macro point is ai is like this benevolent overlord, right?

could be really good for some and really bad for others. >> yeah. i think it's an opportunity and a threat across a lot of our coverage. shutterstock, ability to create images with text, you see technology that's kind of usurping the need for a stock media marketplace. so that's extended to video -- sorry, images today and the potential is that it extends to video and all other stock media that shutterstock may offer. they're having to reinvent their business model. >> yeah. and that's where you've got ai, who's kind of maybe taking over. let's go back to duolingo. i know this show, kelly's show, likes to talk about it a lot. we talk about large language learning models for ai. and yet duolingo is itself a language learning company. so i have no idea how it's going to overlay. >> the big ai benefit for duolingo is the fact that you're

moving towards one on one tutoring. so technology is allowing people to converse with technology, so that allows us to practice conversation with duolingo. they've enabled them in the app. it's an up sell in terms of more premium subscription. i think it's a real catalyst for '25 and we used the product and we think it can really accelerate language learning at large. that being said, you also have things like open ai with their advance mode that allows conversational just learning to take place naturally. so you have a new competitive threat for duolingo, certainly for advanced language learners that's now taking place. so it's both. it's a mix. we think with the running shares that we're willing to take a pause here and get a little more confirmation in terms of what that new language conversation product can be before we're going to become more positive on shares again. >> then you have a reddit, which

as i understand from research, such as yours, will use ai to convert all the posts, you know, wall street bets, whatever the sub reddit is, into other languages. if that's being done automatically and with a computer and done on the cheap or cheap-ish, i guess, relative to humor labor, that dramatically has to expand the world's ability to access reddit and thus the potential ad market? >> yeah. reddit has benefitted recently in terms of just -- show up in more searches today. as we think about next year, when reddit transforms its data core biz and all of its tens of billions of comments that are on the platform into all global languages, we think that there will be greater usage at large. so today the vast majority of posts are in english. this could be a global platform over time and help to be more used just more broadly and in

more markets. so we think there's just a transition here where it becomes a u.s.-based company to a global company other the next couple years. >> how would a meta, most well-known big name stock of the ones we talked about, how would be a facebook or instagram use ai in a way that benefits the numbers and thus benefits the stock? >> yeah. we really like meta here. we think that they're going through an ai product transformation. there are a couple of things going on. one of which is posts and advertisements are more relevant, better engagement from users as well as better return on ad spend for advertisers. then secondly, there's a number of creative tools that are coming to market. and so, what you're seeing is automation now take hold for ad creative. if you have meta now optimizing advertising assets and 50% of ad performance comes from creative, you can see real performance gains take place for advertisers over the next couple years as

facebook optimizes its ad creative tools. >> will we still need influencers on instagram and tiktok or will ai influence them right out? >> oh, man. it's a great question. tiktok just released a product called symphony. today the product isn't perfect but you can see where the road map is going there where, hey, i'm just going to pay somebody to actually take their likeness. and then be able to use whatever i want to use it for and create different iterations of an influencer-like campaign. i mean, that's certainly one of the products that are -- it's easy to see the future of. >> really fascinating discussion. i think it's a new record for "the exchange" four or five stocks in four minutes. ran through it. andrew boone, thank you very much. really appreciate that. we appreciate you watching or listening to "the exchange."

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