300 plus points. we're aquarting quarterly results. united airlines announced a $1.5 billion share buyback. now its flight attendants union is blasting the move. we'll have an interview with the president of that union sara nelson and the ceo of united scott kirby. and a new report on how much elon musk is pouring into donald trump's campaign. it's wednesday, october 16th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody, and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc.

we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures. not a huge amount of activity. the dow is down, s&p and nasdaq up. it was the first negative session for the averages in their last three. the dow was down by 325 points, the s&p was down by three quarters of a percent, and the nasdaq was was down by 1%. treasury yields, we're still sitting at h%. the two-year is just below that at 392. we're continuing to keep an eye on crude oil. month to date, we're still up. but you can see the drops as they wonder what is reeling will do in response to iran. inflation in the uk dropping sharply to 1.7% in september.

that beat expectations of 1. 8%. core inflation which excludes energy, food, coalcohol, and co-bako came down. markets are pricing in at 25 basis point rate cut at the bank of england's november meeting and another one coming in december. >> can we just -- about israel, what do you think? are they waiting? >> for the election? >> we're talking about oil. >> there are going to be multiple reactions or multiple strikes they might do. >> did netanyahu deny "the washington post's" leak from the biden administration that they wrngts going to -- >> they're like, look, we'll do what we want to do. >> was that not a biden administration leak? >> it was a leak.

>> really? have they agreed to not do nuclear on energy facilities? >> i don't think we know. >> we don't know. then i saw it's imminent and everything is on the table. i saw that conjecture again. i think that matters, doesn't it? are we on the cusp of some -- if israel decided to do the nuclear facilities, that's going to be a news story. >> that's why we talk about the repercussions of that. >> it's going to take over the entire news stories and subplant the election, we think. we don't know. >> i don't think you -- look, i don't think we know more than we knew before. >> you didn't talk to bibi. >> i didn't talk to bibi and i didn't talk to biden. i'll make some phone calls during the show. >> when are we going to break?

>> meantime united airlines posted an earnings. the current quarter estimates topping analysts' forecasts starting out at a $1.5 billion buyback, the first since the covid 2019 pandemic when they received $50 billion in government aid which at the time bought back. meanwhile they bought back the buyback program itself. sara nelson is the president of the flight attendants union that represents crews at united including also spirit, alaska, and others, and said the united just sold to wall street belongs to flight attendants. we're going to talk to her about all of this. meantime we should mention united ceo scott kirby is going to join us as well. that's going to happen in the

7:00 hour. and then we have news from apple as well, apple announcing a new ipad mini, offering its first update to its smallest tablets since 2021. it comes with the same processor as last year's iphone 15 pro. supports apple intelligence if you're out there. the company is going to be offering a sweeuite of apps. apple shares rising to new highs in yesterday's sessions. >> but the phones keep getting bigger and the ipads smaller until they converge? >> i don't know. we have one of the minis. i like the mini. >> we have a couple of them. we have a lot of -- >> big phones, small phones. a lot of people like the small

phones the se. >> i love our producer and i love that i have this article, serenity now. former president trump did a really good interview yesterday all about the economy. >> yeah? >> yeah, yeah, and i was watching it and i was like, yeah, that was my first question for friday about independent to the federal reserve, right? you aulsz want the interest rate lower because you're a real estate guy but you want the fed rates higher. i look at that, yeah, i moot have asked that, i was going to ask that. instead it was bloomberg. whatever you want. donald trump defended his plans to overhaul the economy in more direct consultation with the federal reserve. in an interview yesterday at the economic club of chicago with bloomberg, trump repeatedly dismissed predictions by

economists that his policies would have a net negative impact on the economy and pass costs on to consumers. >> the higher the tariff, the more likely it is that the company will are come into the united states and build a factory if the united states so it doesn't have to pay the tariff. >> that would take ma many, many, year. sno there's another theory. the tariff, you make it so high, so horrible, so obnoxious that they'll come right away. >> trump said he would lower taxes for companies that make products in the u.s. tonight we have bret baier. >> interviewing kamala harris. >> and a town hall, sara fall never, on wins issues with former president trump. i don't know in the next 20 days, we shall see. >> less than three weeks to go.

>> we'll see how many -- how many rallies versus media events. i wonder what vice president harris says. this is -- would open the door to a lot of things. you think the joe rogan idea was off the table. >> the next 20 days is a local campaign, that's the thing. >> there won't be any media. >> there might be a lot of local media. there might be a couple of national media thrown into it. but i will say they've decided -- both of these guys have decided they're running local campaigns in basically five or seven states. >> trooper was asked which states he would be watching on election night. pennsylvania and i think wisconsin would be watching.

we know it's 19 electoral votes. >> meanwhile things have exploded for trump. the poly market -- 59-40. 59-40.8. a marist poll of his release, i think, late yesterday, national five-point lead. five-point lead for harris. >> right. that's why i'm not sure which poll you're supposed to look at. >> this was not a poll. this is the betting market >> i was thinking they should be more accurate. i went back to 2022 and how inaccurate the betting analysts were. >> in the swing states, michigan, 53-46. nevada, which flipped, 50-49d, pennsylvania, 56-43, trump. wisconsin. >> are you looking at betting markets or polls? >> poly markets. >> why don't you pull up the gjp

market. it's pretty important. >> it finally went down, i don't think that move it it up. there it is. trump media pulling back. it was briefly halted during yesterday's volatile session following the 7.6% plunge in the price that continued to slide, closing lower by nearly 10 7. hard to really understand exactly what's leading the stock either way anymore. yesterday was the highest volume day for the stocks since it started publicly trading in late march. it's still up 60% in the last month. some people seem to think it's an indicator whether he becomes the president or not. other people think it's not related to anything, presented with commentary.

>> it's hard to explain when the moves are that volatile in one day. >> what did it mean when it was 12 down from 50 and then it has doubled? >> there were questions about whether he would sell some of his stake. >> it was, or whenever the lockup. >> there were a lot of questions around that. but it's been even more volume than we've ever seen. >> we've got a two-week bitcoin or monthly bitcoin. >> above 67. >> above 67. you can see that has been steadily -- it was 59. >> right. >> it was 59 two weeks ago. we should also mention new campaign finance numbers were released late last night. among the headlines, elon muffing has become one of the largest political donors of the cycle. he gave money to his own america pac. that pac has been spending in support of the trump campaign and house gp races. in the third quarter alone, musk spelkts nearly $60 million as

well as $5.1 million for houses running new house seats. the trump 47 pack has raised about $7.5 million in krupp toe currencies. en that include e donations. coming up on roy to watch in the trading day ahd, eryeave day we look forward to the squawk planner. squawk planner is coming up next. "squawk box" is coming right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairdifference.com.

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import sclsh ex/export earn be due out. there are some major banks, several, in the next hour. morgan stanley results are also due around 7:30 a.m. later the company's ceo ted pick will be in "squawk on the street" in a first on cnbc interview at 10:00 a.m. eastern. joining us now is silvia, co-founder, and a lot of people thought we had another new high yesterday. i was watching some of the other

news networks. it didn't happen yesterday, but you probably couldn't be criticized for thinking of another new high. is that going to continue, silvia? is there any waning or momentum that you're seeing or full steam ahead? >> good morning, joe. i do think eventually the momentum and the velocity of the number of highs is going to wane, but i do expect we're going to end the year up strong. i do think the market will inch up a little bit over the next couple of months. monetary policy is favorable to the markets. earnings are looking good so far. consumers are spending, the sentiment is good. i think it's all go for a pretty good year here. >> do you think we continue to sigh tech leadership and semiconductor leadership? >> yeah, so that's a great question. i think it's worth at this point

taking a chance and potentially starting to diversify those portfolios. i started looking at the data on this. if you look at the mag 7, actually only two of them, nvidia and -- oh, gosh. i'm having a bit of a mind -- right now. a lot of names are up in the s&p 500. i think with monetary policy, interest rates coming down, you know, the earnings bar for those names is far lower. valuations look pretty good. i think it's tiemt to start diversifying to the ford 93. buy those mag sevens on deps and hang onto them. don't sell them. with the new dollars, look at the 493 to put money to work. >> 20 days to the election. is that -- is anything watching that? is anyone watching what's going to happen in iran with israel?

>> sf wif we talk about the bum the road, there's the election and the geopolitics and what could happen in iran. i think all eyes are certainly on that conflict. there's a lot of, you know, thought out there that perhaps nothing will happen because an election is coming and then the outcome of that perhaps could determine future results. we'll have to see. again, you know, what has happened every time you get news out of the middle east is the tech falls. that's another argument to broaden your portfolio out and diversify into those ex-mag names, have it there in case we get a pullback on the high-risk names. >> there will be more fed rate cut this year? >> yeah, i think data depen

danlts the fed would cut going into the rest of the year perhaps one more time, but i think the data will kind of give us the news on that. jobs are pretty favorable in terms of the fed not worrying about, you know, the shoe falling off there. we have to kind of see what happens with inflation data going into the rest of the year. >> in china, did you -- did that catch your interest, the moves? now we're wondering how long lasting it would be. there's a piece in the journal today about president xi and how hard core he's going to be true try to continue this. he definitely wants to go to a state-run economy rather than a capitalist economy or pseudo capitalist. >> so china is always the youts liar. it's the world's second largest economy. i think there's a lot of motivation to boost the markets there and get performance back

there and get investors' money back there. you've seen this evening run in kind of these dragon 7, like these top china names by investors. you're starting to see investors there, volumes picking up there. he's likely to continue to support the economy and get the markets back on track there, but that could also be interesting for the u.s. you look at companies like exxon that fuel the oil and gas. there's always an opportunity to look out there. there's an opportunity to look out there if they've got some growth. >> our friend dan clifton from strategas, a piece in the journal. 40% of the s&p's market cap are under investigation for something by the justice department. i guess that's a little -- when you've got companies like -- >> market cap. not 40% of companies. >> but of the market cap. >> yeah. >> that's still 450% of the market cap of the s&p 500. >> is t's a statement on the justice department but a statement on the companies that

are the biggest, how much bigger they are than anybody else. >> not visa. are we really mad at visa and apple and google, unitedhealth, nvidia. >> sylvia, thank you. you were very defiant today, i thought. incredibly defiant. it's a good look. a good look. >> the better you do, the more they look at you. >> it's an underrated attribute, defiance. the opposite is compliance. who wants to be compliant or pliant at all. see you. >> well, you know, you've got to do that too. when we come back, a lot more on "squawk box." the election ma i be keeping a major tech company from launching a mega deal, at least for now. we'll bring you that story. lauter we' dllig into the numbers behind tom brady's minority stake in the las vegas raiders.

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welcome back to "squawk box." qualcomm likely apparently waiting until after the u.s. presidential election before deciding if it wants to go forward and pursue an offer to try to buy intel. qualcomm wants greater clarity and potential impact on the landscape and also america's relationship with china. china, of course, key market for both companies. qualcomm reportedly made informal inquiries with

regulators last month about all of this. they made an approach to intel. separately reuters reporting in the last hour that chinese regulators say intel products sold should be subject to a security review. china claiming the u.s. chipmaker has constantly harmed china's national security and interest. you're seeing the tit for tat already in many cases. as of last year, 27% -- this is important -- of intel's revenue came from china. the move could be similar to what we saw last year when asia targeted micron. it barred key domestic companies from buying its products, saying they failed in network security review. so a lot of questions. i think implied in this news is that if former president trump becomes the president, maybe they pursue a deal like this. maybe. but maybe not. >> that was my guess. >> sorts of a jump ball. then there's part of me that

things if former president trump becomes the president they'll slap tariffs on everybody else and if they're already at tit for tat, that would escalate itself. it's hard to understand what the sort of thought process becomes. >> i read it as they must be waiting because they don't think a deal like that would get through a harris administration, but you're right. when it gets to a tit for tat, this would be negotiations,al though trump did say in the last week that the tariffs are something that would be a negotiating tool. >> i would say it's possible that this deal actually has a better chance than the harris administration oddly enough to me. >> really? >> yes, because the other piece of this is -- gina roman doe and the congress department who's been handing out all this money to intel, they desperately need intel to work. they're invested in intel. we as taxpayers, i don't think we appreciate it, we're

invested. >> they haven't gotten all the money yesterday. >> if somehow intel is not able to pull this off or do something on their own, there's going to be hell to pay. >> i think plenty is lost. >> by definition, it's probably not going to work. they shouldn't be in the business of winners and losing. they can fund some of the national science foundation work and some of the early research, but then you've got to pass the baton. >> so here's the question. >> yeah. >> what would -- seriously on the chip front, if you decidein the post-covid world you need to have chips manufactured here in the united states because it's a national security issue, what would you do? >> i probably would do a carrot-and-stick-type thing. >> that looks like what? >> i'm not exactly sure what it

would look like, but i trust the private sector. >> intel doesn't have -- >> no, i don't think -- i definitely would not pick which companies to try to make bets on. >> the problem has been that, remember at the time everybody who's looking to build the plant was considering us, germany because of the incentives they were offering, they were offering -- >> you can start with keeping the corporate tax rate low. >> but that's not -- we've had a low tax rate. >> no, we haven't. we haven't had a low tax rate. we had it, and people are still trying to raise it from where it is. it's been over -- over 35 years. f. >> nobody's trying to building -- >> yes, we are. >> the reason we're not building foundries in the country is we found there is, frankly, not a huge mar june in those businesses. >> in the commodity-type businesses. >> but in terms of the actual manufacturing components, building a foundry, the huge

investment it takes to do that -- >> maybe it doesn't need to be in taiwan. it could be in india. it could be in other parts of the worldings perhaps. the commodity components. i think the private sector would figure it out. i'm almost sure the government would be able to figure it out. i'll take my chances. >> it was launched as a national defense issue. remember, all of this happened during covid when the supply chain fell apart. >> its wasn't just the supply chain. it came out of that country, covid, and we were dependent on getting chips. >> by the way, we're talking taiwan. >> the skexport from china wasn chips. it was covid. >> we're talking taiwan. we were so dependent on taiwan, we were looking at every checkpoint for all kinds of cent industries because of hurricane helene knocking out that plant in north carolina where we get

60% of our iv fluids for the nation. >> even, whatever you want to call it, this ev transition, this is -- you've got the government's fingerprints all over it, and you can see how well that's going. >> i'm not saying -- >> i don't know how you do it incentive-wise. i just was reading -- it a is not a transition. it's an addition. we're not doing less of the fossil fuels. we're trying to add something. coal demand is going to be higher than it is now. >> i'm not here to defend the administration -- >> industrial policy? >> first of all, there's industrial policy going on with both parties now. >> i know, and it's all bad. >> but the question to me,the debated -- if you decide you need to have these chips manufacturing in the u.s., what is it exactly that you're going to do that's going to make that happen? >> this is an argument -- >> lowering taxes broadly is not

the answer, i would argue, because it hasn't been the answer. >> we could have an argument every day about who you should let manage the private sector. >> this conversation's not going away. we'll come back to it again. but it's going away right now because we're going to a break. when we -- >> i wouldn't want to talk about that either. >> when we come back, we'll talk about the potential tax changes ahead of the white house, tax strategies you can use to minimize your tax bill. that's right after this. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next-level moments need the next-level network. -fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. take a look at the futures. dow looks like it would open down at 15 points off. s&p up a little over 3 and nasdaq looking to go up around 25. i wanted to round up. can't. almost 25 points higher. with the 2017 tax cuts and jobs act set to expire at the

end of 2025, higher taxes may be on the horizon for many taxpayers. funding roth i.r. a. retiemt accounts are an alternative. >> you can save pretax dollars and then pay income tax layer when you take the money out or pay income taxes now and let your i.r.a. growth. roth conversions saw a 46% increase year over year in the second quarter. shifting money to a roth i.r.a. can lower your taxes. >> it gives you control over

when you realize and pay taxes. for most individuals, that i have a huge tax break when they take money out of their 401(k) or i.r.a. because of requirement distributions. >> with a roth i.r.a., you don't have to. there aren't any income limits but you do need to pay all the knicks tax you oh on the money you convert in the year you do it and that can be a big bill. also keep in mind a conversion can boost your total income and put you in a higher tax bracket and that could lead to your being disqualified from tax breaks. but if you can pay the tax and you want tax-free retirement savings later, financial experts say timing maybe key. if you converts pullback, you could have more.

if you have more, you could owe less tax on the money you move and that could be perhaps when you start collecting social security or taking required distributions. for more advice on how to grow your wealth, achieve your investment goegts and save your money, join me and other financial experts on october 24th for your cnbc money event. scan the code on the screen to veg tregister now. >> first of all if you look at our data and our deficit, there's no way tax claims are going up. do it now and take advantage of it. but if you're still working and earning a lots of money, you may be in a higher tax bracket than you would be later. it would be great to do it now but the market's at all-time highs. >> it's the timing of it.

that's why it's so important to think about not only making the conversion but thinking about other ways they could fund a roth account without having to pay the tax. many are offered a roth 401(k) at their jobs. that i have no idea. you can put in after tax money and all of that money will be growing tax-free. >> by the way, it's nice to look at an account and say this is what i actually have versus here's what i have less gosh knows what's happening with taxes. >> i'm exactly there with you. like at that number and think that's a big number, but that's -- >> that's not what you're getting. >> with the roth account if you put in the $23,000 max for this

year or 30 r,500, a all of thats going in. others say i don't qualify with my income to put money into a roth i.r.a., but then i'm not feeling like i'm paying the tax either. that backdoor mega roth where some are allowing you to make after tax deposits and switch it, you could potentially have $69,000 in that. that's a lot of money when you combine what you put in fur your contributions, company matching contributions, after tax contributions, all of that together. that's a lot of money. >> thank you. >> sure. coming up when we return, we're going to talk about the volatile trading session for shares of trump media and new campaign finance disclosures showing elon musk pouring millions into the trump campaign. a reminder you get the best.

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welcome back to "squawk box." i royn't to take a look at shares of trump media this morning after moving higher for a couple of weeks. the stock was briefly halted, this after a sudden 6% plurng finished the day by 10%. joining us now to explain what happened here, liz hoffman, a cnbc contributor. good morning to you. we were talking about this at the top of the show, trying to make sense of this. what do you know? >> not a lot of sense to be made, i don't think. look, the stock has really functioned as a heartbeat of this campaign, which itself has been pretty volatile. it was on a huge tear the last couple of weeks. really tracking interestingly

these online betting markets that are a knew feature of this campaign season and way, way, way up. probably some profit-taking. it traded at about 100 million shares after averaging 10 or so. wild trading probably fell through its moving average and kept going. i'd be surprised if it was insider selling. as you know, donald trump has a big stake in this, devin nunes, a lots of these guys who have held on actually through the run. >> that was my question about this. you just described this as the heart beat of the campaign as an kaitzer of the campaign, success or failure of the campaign or whatnot. are we sure that it is a heart beat of the campaign at all, which is to say, i look at the stock, the polls, the betting markets and say these things are not correlated to everything and then i go back and look at the financials of the company and i look at a company here that's got a $5 billion evaluation on a

company that, you know, has revenue in the millions of dollars range, and i think to my myself. >> losing money, by the way, a lot of money. look, there has to be a political piece to this. as you say, this is a widely profitable company and worth a lot of money. if it were 2020, 2021, i'd say that's how things are right now. that's not how things are right now. it's clearly a vehicle for people to express either some preference or blossom some political steam. you know, again, the online political gambling sites, which, you know, were just legalized basically. there was a ruling last month that opened the door to this. it looks like the ctfc is going to appeal that, but they have trump somewhere between 55%, 60%

chance of winning where every poll basically has this neck and neck. look, polls can be wrong and online betting is a little more dynamic. it can capture some more intermittent news. hard to see these two things as totally divorced, i would say. >> do we think the betting market is a better indicator today than the polls are in terms of accuracy? there are some people em who think this these things could not necessarily be manipulated but there are people who are more interested in the betting markets than others? is there a political -- i mean if we were to poll the people we are betting, would there be a -- would we find out that they have a political view about this election? >> yeah, i mean, look, we've been on the internet and the poll pops up. you should treat it like that, i think. you know, the only thing -- again, i'm not a pollster, but i would say the only thing where

you could perhaps see it being more accurate is if there was a major news event of which there were a bunch this summer and the polls take a little while to catch up to that. this is a race that, you know, appears to be tightening if anything going into the stretch and hard to see what's happening in the betting markets as anything other than -- >> you don't believe -- there is an argument being made online by a whole bunch of people that the betting markets are the people who -- the people who are betting are -- lean more conservative to begin with. there's more men that are betting than women, and that as a result, you sort of put together the puzzle there that you would by default have sort of a higher propensity to see people betting for trump over harris, if that was the case. i don't know . >> yeah. we'll have to do some polling of these people on the back end.

it's clearly a different group of people. most reliable voters tend to be older, they tend to be women. every cycle could massively change here. it looks like a lot of people placing bets online. >> it's funny. depending on who's up or who's down, the same people who like it one week discount it the next one drudgington post or whatever you want to call it, harris up two points, harris widening the betting odds. now it's up for trump, not a word, not a word. depending on what your -- the other thing, there are other things that take into account, like, nate silver or what used to be nate silver, they do polls, the economy, you know, different parts of the country, they even factor in the betting -- and they come up with

things and you might remember i think it was 2016, i think was there -- there was a "new york times" probability and it went -- during the night it went -- remember it went like that? it was seriously like 80% hillary clinton and you're watching and suddenly do you remember that? it was -- >> i remember that. >> it was beyond belief how quickly things can change. 80/20 to 80/20, so what good is it, really? >> that's exactly what -- if you looked at the -- if you take a totally different example, around the rate cut, look at the fed funds futures market. for 70/30, 25 base points, 70, 30, 50 in a couple of days, these are people who do this for a living. >> liz, thank you. i want to talk about elon musk and his donations and the like. i'm sure we'll have an ryportunity to talk again very, ve soon. liz hoffman, semaphore cnbc contributor, appreciate it. more on "squawk" coming up right after this. that's the power of curiosity.

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when we come back, united airlines launching a $1.5 billion stock buyback program that drew the ire of its flight attendts uonanni. we have the union president sarah nelson joining us next. and later, we'll be talking to the ceo, scott kirby. "squawk box" will be right back.

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billion share buyback program, the first since covid-19 when airlines received more than $50 billion in government aid that prevented buybacks and dividends. the union says that money belongs to frontline workers. joining us now is sarah nelson, the association of flight attendants international president and, sarah, this is a complicated issue. i want to make sure our viewers understand it. so we should put this in the backdrop that united airlines flight attendants authorized a strike last month, if they cannot reach a negotiation with the company over where you stand on your next contract. so, let's put it in that backdrop. you're upset because you don't have a contract right now, and they're offering to buy bake sh back shares, correct? >> yes, becky. this goes back to 2020 when we got the payroll support that included the ban on stock

buybacks and workers were on the front lines in the airline keeping it going. we saved the airline with that government program and with our workwere supposed to be in negotiations then. we're the last employee group without a contract and scott kirby seems to be trying to echo the words of herb kelleher and his message to employees but it is hit ypocritical. he's not sending decisionmakers to the table. i've done dozens of contract negotiations and i know what it looks like when a company wants to work honestly with you to get improvements to workers. that is not what is happening at united airlines and instead they are sending this money to wall street rather than investing in the frontline workers who are with the passengers more than anyone else. >> so you all are look for things. a pay increase, you're looking for better retirement pay, more flexibility with schedules, you're looking for retroactive

pay for time negotiated, time for long waits to be paid on flights -- in between flights and pay for time when the plane is actually boarding, which i have to say i'm very surprised that is not part of the pay you receive, that seems like a significant amount of time. however, united airlines, i believe, has offered to match the american airlines deal that was ratified last month by the flight attendants and that includes a lot of those issues, 20.5% pay raise, retroactive pay for time negotiating, a pay for boarding time. what is wrong with the deal that american airlines flight attendants accepted? >> the american airlines flight attendants did accept a contract that sets part of the new standard for the industry and the standard is being set at southwest, american, at alaska with the ta, hasn't been ratified yet, but that's been locked in with agreements from management, and that is not what united airlines is doing. they're still looking for concessions in healthcare, looking for concessions in scheduling, no one else, pilots,

machinists, anyone across the industry has accepted concessions. that's not what this is. they continue to delay the negotiations with these requests for concessions. the pay increases, of course, are going to be at that level. we know that already. there is a frontline work for this contract and if they get to the table and work with us earnestly, get the ridiculous concessions off the table, that is not in place for anyone else, we can reach an agreement very quickly. but they are not -- >> let me just -- i've read a lot of reports trying to figure out what the actual story is. have they agreed to match everything with the american airlines flight attendants or they have offered to match with concessions or they have agreed to match but you want concessions? which is it? >> they have not agreed to match on all the compensation, they have not agreed to match for the time on the ground, they have not agreed to match with retroactive pay. >> that american did agree to? i want to make sure this is an apples to apples comparison.

>> american got all of those things and without concessions. and so this is nowhere -- what they are doing at the table right now is nowhere near what the american airlines flight attendants reach. let's recognize too, that united airlines is in a much better financial position than american airlines, they have more money to give to the flight attendants and the flight attendants have been waiting a very long time for this. this is not that hard. they're not going to completely match american, but they're not even doing that right now. and the concessions that they have on the table are just a delay tactic, in addition to the fact that they're sending very low level managers, so they're not showing any interest in actually reaching a deal. >> my understanding is that the buyback of shares, united said this is to buy back shares that were originally issued to the u.s. treasury under the pandemic era c.a.r.e.s. act and payroll support program that currently represents about 7% of the airline's current market cap. they bought back 2 million of the 6.4 million warrants that were issued. in that case, they would be

buying back shares to pay back the u.s. taxpayer, not wall street. >> so, they're doing that, but that is over and above what they're doing with $1.5 billion in this stock buyback program. those are two separate things. other airlines have done that, they have been dishonest about saying what alaska has given returns to shareholders, it is in that same bucket that you're talking about, becky, that's rela related to those warrants. they made more money than anyone else and they should be rewarding those shareholders with those dividends. >> stock buybacks reward shareholders in the same way. more tax efficient, actually, if you're a big shareholder, you get paid back instead of dividends that are taxed, you can own a larger portion of the company by having the stock buybacks come through. >> the problem is, becky, is that there was an agreement that they would not give these stock buybacks across the industry until they reinvested in the operation. as you know, there were all the

operational meltdowns that disserviced passengers and until they reinvested in the employees and finished the negotiations because across the industry as we hit the pandemic, there were supposed to be negotiations after 20 years of austerity following 9/11 with all the bankruptcies, then the consolidation in the industry, this was the first opportunity for employees to move forward and united airlines flight attendants are one of the last groups standing, waiting for those improvements that are long overdue. the stock buybacks were not supposed to go anywhere near to wall street until all of these contracts are resolved. they're going back on what they agreed to do. >> the idea of a strike, i know it has to come after the mediation that you're in right now has ended and 30-day cooling off period. it does indicate that you all could go on strike right around the thanksgiving holidays. just asking as somebody who has bought a united flight for my daughter to come home from college, is that the case? do i need to worry about that at this point? do other travelers need to worry about what is going to happen

over the holidays? >> we don't have a deadline now. i can't say that for sure. we're in the final stages of negotiations here. that's up to the government and the flight attendants clearly are ready to do what we need to do. i think that a strike is a very, very important part of the collective bargaining process. and the last thing we want to do is go on strike. what we want to do is encourage united airlines to reach an agreement with us and right now they're showing no interest in doing that. that's the biggest problem here, becky. they're not getting to the table and talking with us about reaching an agreement. >> sarah, we have been -- they have been trying to wrap me for a couple of minutes. i have to go. a quick last question because we have scott kirby coming up later this morning, the ceo, if they were to offer to match everything that american airlines has offered that the flight attendants signed off on last month, would you accept that offer? >> look, the flight attendants at united have a different contract. there will be different things in the contract. but they're not even meeting that standard right now. so let's get serious and talk about that standard and what

flight attendants at united deserve because as the airline is making more money, there should be more to share with united flight attendants. >> sarah, thanks for your time. >> thank you. thank you, becky. >> it is just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and becky quick. we got a lot going on this morning. the last of the major banks reporting in this hour. we're going to hear from morgan stanley. their results due at 7:30 eastern time. street expecting a third quarter earnings to come in at $1.58 a share. we'll bring you the numbers and the market reaction as those numbers hit the tape. later, ceo ted pick is going to join leslie picker on "squawk on the street" as well. >> that's confusing. >> that is a little confusing. investors keeping a close eye on the chip trade, following yesterday's big market cap wipeout. u.s. chip stocks right now, you can take a look there, nvidia up, lam, applied materials, asml

holdings all down, asml down close to 4%. shares of luxury group lvmh under heavy pressure, that stock off 4% after the company reported a 3% drop in third quarter sales. revenue came in at $20.8 billion, but that was a 3% pullback in growth from the same quarter a year ago. we talked to bernard arnault over the summer in paris around the time of the olympics about just some of the challenges in china and how that is impacting the business and you're seeing some of the impacts out here. >> yeah. i was impressed that you went one for one with him with your wardrobe too. you weren't the slightest bit -- you didn't feel outgunned, i don't think, did you? >> no, the other thing that i missed was that i own a dior suit and i forgot to bring it with me. >> you had, like, 12 outfits over there. >> just so i -- >> that would have been 13, andrew. >> i know.

we talked about, you know what are you wearing? >> you talk with him about that? >> yes, if you're somebody like ber bernard arnault, he looks at the details, the shoes, the suit, he touches the fabric, absolutely. but that's why he's so good. that's why he's so good. >> you're absolutely right. >> i was at a fashion gala, and i brought a target purse and they asked me if i was really telling the truth. i am and it is still here. you're dressed up in dior and i have my target bag. >> that cool french accent helps too. it does, believe me. you're at a club or something, believe me. i've tried it. i can't -- let's get to dom chu with a look at some other -- he's probably tried that at some point. have you tried that, dom, you carry your handicap card around saying, yep, i'm scratch. >> no, no, i do not do that. i haven't tried it. what i will say -- >> i don't want to put you on

the spot. do your stocks, sorry. >> i learned my wardrobe is a lot less fancier than you guys. maybe it is on par with becky, i don't know. i don't own any dior suits. we'll start things off with a big tech mover for this morning. let's start with apple, record high of one point yesterday, lower again this morning after the stock hit the levels yesterday. those gains were fueled by some of the optimism surrounding the rollout of apple intelligence powered iphones coming up down the pike and apple announcing a new ipad mini yesterday with new features. the company's first update since 2021. that rally pretty much cemented apple's status as the world's largest company. nvidia is up there after the pullback. next up, starbucks, up about just half a percent here in the early trading after morgan stanley increased the stock's target price to $115 a share. it was 98. they reiterate their overrate rating. the setup near term is muddled, they don't expect starbucks to

discuss a fuller strategic financial plan, they like the longer term potential of the stock, especially seeing the pullback that we have seen here over the last year or so. it is up about % on flat in that time frame. so we'll keep an eye on that. for more on that and other top calls of the day, head to cnbc.com/pro, subscribers get full access to the stories behind the calls. intel shares down around 2% with the rest of the chip complex this morning. this is on a reuters report citing that chinese regulators are saying that intel products sold in the country should be subject to a possible security review. china claimed the chipmaker has constantly harmed the country's national security interests as of last year 27% of intel's revenue came from that kind of china region, becky. so intel shares down 2%. back over to you guys. >> okay, dom, thank you very much. >> get that out of the dow. days are numbered. well, coming up -- >> nvidia. nvidia. >> coming up, we'll talk markets

with j.j. kennihan. and new air strikes targeting underground infrastructure. we'll talk about the crisis in the middle east and america's stance. "squawk box" will be right back. i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. doe'. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah. it's time to grow your business.

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interesting couple of weeks coming up here now with earnings, right? >> earnings as we head into an election, and everybody is wondering what the fed is actually going to do next. it makes for an interesting trifecta. >> and we have, what, 46 new highs and it is the market that nobody actually loves, so we continue to go higher and quite honestly we probably can continue to go higher because i've never seen a market that is doing so well that nobody talks about and everybody is afraid of. and path of least resistance is what i believe in, and the path of least resistance continues higher because there is zero fomo. >> 46 new highs for the s&p 500 this year. jamie dimon said something maybe about a month ago about how people forget the markets can go down too. >> well, yeah, you say that, but then you look at the people who are in their mid-30s et cetera and younger, they have never truly seen much of a down market. when they think they see it, it only lasts a few days.

>> right. >> so if you are a younger person, i mean, you know, i think it is awesome in the sense that when you're younger, we always tell people to take risks. it is a funny conundrum to me. we tell people to take risks, when they take risks, we criticize them, which is odd to me. if you're a younger person and willing to take a little bit of risk, it has been an incredible run for you and you had an opportunity to make some money. now, again, if you've done so hopefully you're keeping your risk in balance, so to speak, but this is -- when i talk to a lot of our younger clients, et cetera, they really are, like, this is amazing, and the great thing about it is long-term, i think it is great for the markets. they're the people who saw their parents have a tough time in '08 and '09, but they're experiencing success, so they're starting to have a much different view of the market overall, long-term that's fantastic. >> i've been wondering if part of the reason this market has such strong legs is that there have been so many people who are maybe a little older, who have

gotten burned in the past, who have been waiting for a pullback. that pullback has never come. maybe you have more and more people who capitulate over time, i got to throw into the towel and get into this. >> you know, i would say maybe a little bit, but one of the reasons as i started with that i think we continue higher is if they're going in, they're going in very -- they're still going in very -- >> dipping their toe in. >> a little bit at a time. i think to your point there are some people who are so underinvested and that's usually the time the markets continue higher. again, people don't truly believe and everyone i talked to is so nervous, you know, the fed has been a tough story, people are unsure what to do there. >> the fed is in a massive easing cycle, so -- >> yes, they are, but then somebody hasn't told the bond market that the last week or so. and so, with that also again the election, you know, we did a study recently and it showed that actually volatility isn't

that much greater in an election year than it is in normal years. >> volatility isn't great right now. >> yeah. at 20, historical average basically. >> and only recently come up to 20. >> exactly. if you look at the year after elections, that's when volatility starts to increase more than -- >> when they actually start making changes for whatever administration wins? >> exactly. and can they get anything done? we'll see in a few months in january if that sort of holds true. >> j.j., great to see you. >> always a pleasure to be here. >> thanks for coming in. >> thank you. coming up, one of the last pieces of the puzzle for financials, morgan stanley is going to report. later, united airlines ceo scott kirby is going to join us to talk about the latest quarter, their plans for a $1.5 billion share buyback program, and much more. we'll be right back. for the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. aflac! health insurance does leave a gap. but aflac gives people money to help close that gap. aflac! oh! coach prime got one on the line too baby!

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israel striking dozens of iran-backed hezbollah targets in lebanon earlier this morning in an effort to dismantle underground infrastructure. our next guest says that the challenge isn't just striking back against iran, but overcoming the country's power and influence in the region. joining us now, seth jones,

president of the defense and security department at the center for strategic and international studies. and skipping ahead to some of the things that you told our people, seth, you think that the big looming challenge is that nothing has been done recently to rein in iran, and i don't know who you want to blame it on, but the gulf states haven't been able to do it. we're under the impression that israel has done some things with, you know, after october 7th, but at this point the united states has not, gulf states have not, and that's something that is factoring in to everything that is happening right now. >> that's right. i mean, i think if you look at the last five to ten years, what we have seen is iranian expansion across the region with the assad regime's successes on the battlefield in syria, to get rid of the opposition with u.s.

has announced it is going to continue withdrawing its forces from iraq. iran already has a strong foot hold there. so it actually has this corridor between lebanon through syria into iraq and then iran itself, where it can continue to bring weapons, people and other systems across that region. and then when you add a few countries like yemen and its relationship with the houthis, i think what you see is a pretty strong presence throughout the region. so, over the last year, since october 7th, i was down to visit some of the kibbutz overrun by hamas, the fighting has been in areas like gaza and more recently in southern lebanon, but you got this pretty extensive network of iranian activity and there has been little effective effort to weaken iran in these areas. that's a big moving challenge that is not going to be resolved

with this -- with what we have seen so far. >> could be resolved, it seems like, and we keep hearing things and i think your point is that israel is not going to probably telegraph its intentions to anyone, including the united states. and if that was -- if that leak was actually true, it was done for the -- it was leaked to the biden administration for the biden administration. >> yeah. the biden administration has been, i think, pretty adamant that any israeli response to now two iranian sets of ballistic missiles that have been shot directly to israel is not to escalate to all-out war in the region. and to respond without major escalation. so this is, i think, where the biden administration officials have talked publicly about not going after iran's nuclear program, which probably, frankly, would require some boots on the ground, but to

strike back against largely military facilities. so, i think that's probably where the israeli leaks were directed at, some assurances to the biden administration it was never going to go after nuclear targets. there are a lot of -- there are a lot of target sets on the ground from iranian bases to production facilities with shahid 136s, these are drones. there is a lot that they could do. >> if we know that the entire world has sort of let iran become, don't know, too powerful, why wouldn't the united states -- why not -- no time like the present. why not be advising israel to do what maybe would be good for the entire world at this point? just going to get worse. it is going to fester and end up in a nuclear armed iran, if it isn't done now.

>> yeah, well, i think, you know, the challenge of this cannot be just in my view the israelis. when you talk about iranian activity and presence in yemen, then you're bringing in the gulf states. when you're talking about iraq as well. there are some of these countries, i just don't think israel is best equipped and has a lot of capabilities to deal with on the ground. u.s. has boots on the ground in iraq right now. could go after some of the popular mobilization forces. same thing in yemen right now, the u.s. has historically had some capabilities to go after ira iran iranian qods force. >> let's say israel decides to go after some of the nuclear sites, or some of the oil and gas sites or something like that, against the wishes, if you will, of the u.s. and its

allies. and then there is a -- some kind of massive retaliation from iran in the form of, we saw 200 some odd missiles come toward tel aviv last time, that was stopped in large part because israel, with its allies including the u.s. were there to support them. do you see a point or moment in which israel would go off and do something without consulting with or at odds with the u.s. and that the u.s. afterwards would say, well, you did this without our permission, if you will, or without our acceptance and we are not going to be supporting the defense effort? that, to me is another sort of war game here. >> yeah, i think at this point two comments here, one is we have already seen israel conduct operations, both in gaza and in lebanon and frankly syria as

well that do appear to go against the wishes of some u.s. officials. the letter that senior u.s. officials sent to the israelis, which has been leaked to the press, is pretty straightforward that there is criticism of israeli military action and the lack of humanitarian assistance. i do not believe, though, that the u.s. would stop its aid to defend israel from incoming strikes, missile strikes. i do think the u.s. would help israel defend its territory. where the u.s. has indicated a willingness to constrain aid is offensive weapons systems, large diver bombs, for example, that israel could use for offensive operations. that, i think, is where we have seen the administration push back on what it is going to provide to israel. >> okay, all right, seth. i got some data that just hit. we appreciate your time this

morning. thank you. >> thank you. >> morgan stanley reporting quarterly results, leslie picker joins us right now with those numbers. hi, leslie. >> good morning, becky. the market likes what it sees with the numbers. a beat across the board here. top and bottom line, bottom line at $1.88 per share. top line beating by about a billion dollars coming in at $15.4 billion, the street was expecting $14.4 billion in revenue for the third quarter. investment banking up 56%, coming in at $1.463 billion for the quarter. advisory equity underwriting fixed income all beating estimates as did fixed income and equity sales and trading as well here. global wealth management, wanted to highlight that, coming in at $7.27 billion, that was record net revenue for the division, up 14% from a year ago. and net new assets, something investors will be very focused on in terms of what it says about the momentum of the division, those coming in at

$63.9 billion, higher than the 35.7 billion in net new assets we saw a year ago. investment management also beating $1.455 billion. and the return on tangible common equity 18.2% during the first nine months of the year for morgan stanley. you can see shares up 3% on these third quarter results. a beat, every division, top and bottom line, the market likes what it sees. >> the stock up by 3% right now. andrew? >> a lot more coming up on "squawk," a condo crisis in south florida we have to tell you about. it started well before the latest string of devastating hurricanes. robert frank is going to join us with the details. don't want to miss this. 'rcongig bk ter this. hone ringing) [narrator] not all multi-millionaires built their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the bootstrapper. the bootmaker. yeehaw [narrator] but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth.

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coming up next, south florida's condo market is imploding. wealth editor robert frank is

going to join us with some of the details. and then united airlines ceo scott kirby is going to join us. "squawk box" will be right back.

all right, stormy weather was already moving in on south

florida's condo market. well before the hurricanes hit the state. robert frank joins us right now with more on what could be the next bust cycle in florida real estate. >> south florida is seeing a big jump in inventory of unsold homes and that was before hurricanes helene and milton, listings in coral gables and del rey beach up 70% in september. west palm beach, wellington, fort lauderdale, 60% increases in inventory. prices not surprisingly have started falling. in miami, prices are down 12%, that's the biggest drop of any major housing market in the country. jacksonville, orlando, tampa, all seeing price drops of more than 5%. brokers say the hurricanes are likely to lead to even more listings and a new law that requires condo buildings to fund large cash reserves has led to a glut of older condos on the market. then you have those insurance costs in florida causing even the wealthy buyers now to look elsewhere. look at signed contracts from miami homes priced over $3

million, those are down 57%. in palm beach, contracts were over $5 million, down 50%. for more on whether the florida dream may be fading, don't miss my live conversation friday with billionaire real estate investor jeff greene, he's building a lot in west palm beach. scan the qr code on the screen or head to cnbc.com/insidewealth to register. and it is going to be interesting to talk to him, because he's building a large office project in west palm beach. the office market held up fairly well in south florida. so many people have moved. if you start to see people move back to georgia, tennessee, the carolinas, which is where people are going -- >> because of the hurricanes. >> partly. but a lot of it is affordability. the prices in many markets have doubled since the pandemic. a lot of people are going to the other states. and now you have people just looking at the insurance costs, once again, hurricanes. >> there is no quick fix for this. the condo requirements for cash came because of the horrible

collapse. surfside, that dropped on that, and they realized that all of these condos need to make sure they have better maintenance and it is going to cost a lot of money. not a quick fix for that because it is making up for time. there is not a quick fix for the insurance costs because same story, risks have increased, costs have increased, so when there is a hurricane, it is much more -- there is much more damage that is actually done from a cost perspective. i don't see how either of those two issues get fixed. >> and you add to that the fact that florida has very lax laws in terms of how to fund new development. you can actually use customer deposits to fund construction. which you can't do in many other states. >> what? >> so what has happened is florida had, and to its credit, had great supply of new condo buildings throughout the pandemic and afterward, where as, you know, states like new york, things froze, took a while to get back, so you had this huge amount of supply, especially right outside of -- >> awesome as long as there is

demand. >> right. when we had big inventory crisis in the rest of the country, florida is like we have supply! and they had sales. and brokers loved it. now it is that supply that is really creating the pressure at the top and i think you're going to see prices fall even more. >> no more politics for greene? >> no, you know, some -- he ran as a democrat for governor, but his closest friends are major trump donors, so we're going to talk to him about where he -- >> that's weird. >> not really. >> kind of. he's a big dem. i don't know. i was going to ask you that. is he back -- >> i wouldn't say he's a big dem. >> was he backing kamala? >> we'll ask him. i'll ask him. he's a big fan of yours and the show and becky. we'll ask him. >> not me. >> he loves you too. he loves all of you. >> no. i was out of the picture. it's okay. it's okay. love you back. love you back. >> he's come on the show a long time. >> plenty of people are fans.

i see them all the time. >> tweeting at you on my behalf, on my behalf. >> not as -- >> thank you, robert. >> i usually win. >> we are having three conversations here. >> coming up, united airlines third quarter sales and fourth quarter profit forecasts both ahead of estimates. ceo scott kirby will join us after the break. and we're watching the shares of apple this morning after hitting an intraday high, all time high yesterday. deep water asset management's gene munster joins us with a look at that stop and other names. "squawk box" will be right back. helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.

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welcome back to "squawk box." united airlines reported better than expected results and started a share buyback program. phil lebeau joins us now with more. >> scott kirby, ceo of united airlines. let's talk about the third quarter. i think the swinging to a positive revenue per available seat mile, do you believe we are now past that point in the industry where from here it

should be fairly steady growth? >> well, the third quarter is another in a long string of good quarters at united. the more important thing is we hit -- we have been talking about this inflection point and industry supply that was going to happen and it happened in mid-august. it looks even better going forward. revenue environment is strong. corporate revenue is up 13% in the quarter. got even stronger in october. so the outlook both from demand and supply perspective looks really good going forward. >> what do you expect from the third quarter and specifically some people talked about some noise, potentially slower bookings around the election. when you look at whether it is the election early november or further out with the holidays, what are you expecting? >> the holidays look good. there are always things like elections and calendar shifts that happen in the industry. we at united try to adopt a no excuses philosophy. and not really get focused on the short-term noise. so while there are some headwinds in the fourth quarter, there will be tailwinds next year. >> you got a number of 737

maxes. you've taken delivery of them this year. you have a whole slew in the order book over the next couple of years. given the strike at boeing, are you re-adjusting your timeline in terms of saying, okay, we're not going to get what we thought in 2025 or 2026? >> i'm really more focused on the long-term. and very encouraged because i thought the problem at boeing was cultural, that they shifted to a short-term financial metric, short-term stock price, and they need to get back to the roots of being focused on building great products with great engineering, quality, safety. and the biggest news actually is the recent news that they're going to do a $10 billion share sale. that is rebuilding the base, getting the company capitalized in a way to get the long-term. and the strike is a hangover of all that cultural legacy. it is going to have an impact in the short-term. i'm willing to get through that to get the company back on track in the long-term. i do feel confident about that. >> you know kelly ortberg, the ceo. is that the main reasonyou have more confidence now that they are going to get back and do

things the right way? >> i do. i have confidence in that. kelly told me when he first started and now it is in the public domain that to be the biggest step really in decades at boeing is the willingness to go and sell equity, to put the company on a long-term financial footing that they can invest in the products, they can invest in quality, they can invest in safety. that's a really big signpost for any of us that care about the long-term. customer, i care about the long-term, i was a employee at boeing, i would care about the long-term. in the long-term, it is much better to put the company on solid financial footing. that's really encouraging to me. >> scott, becky has a question for you. becky? >> scott, thanks, phil. scott, we had sarah nelson on from the flight attendants union earlier this morning. they are upset, they have authorized a strike, the flight attendants at united if they can't reach an agreement with you on the contract negotiations. just wonder what the latest is with those contract negotiations. i tried to ask sarah if they

would accept the offer that american airlines flight attendants had accepted, i'm still confused as to whether or not you've actually put that same offer on the table or not. >> well, i think our flight attendants are doing a phenomenal job. they're the best in the industry. they're the best in the world. i can see it in our customer scores. a lot of the improvement at united. i tell the flight attendants they're the face of united airlines and doing a great job and they deserve and they're going to get an industry leading contract. and so we're working with them, at their request, we're in federal remediation, we're going to get there, they deserve and they're going to get an industry leading contract. >> is this a situation that customers should be worried about because they could strike, apparently, as early as maybe thanksgiving holidays. >> that's absolutely incorrect. they can't we're under a federal process where the federal government would have to release us from remediation. and mediators -- and so there is

no imminent risk of any action like that. >> scott, let me ask you about the international routes that you guys announced. >> yeah. >> these are off the beaten path. these are not your typical, hey, we're flying into frankfurt or flying into barcelona. how lucrative have these become for you as you start to say, we're going to do select flights to select smaller destinations. >> yeah, the quick answer is they have done really well. this is one of those, i'm a route network planner by background. that's where i started my career. during the pandemic, we had extra airplanes and as we were starting to come out, a lot more leisure demand than patrick and the team came to me with ideas, places i didn't know the airport codes, which was unusual for me and started them. but some of them have been some of the most profitable markets. we have a we can fly to areas that customers love. join the frequent flyer program. a great ecosystem. >> and patrick comes to you, ever a point you're like, no way. no way enough traffic? >> used to be. they've all worked, i've stoched

s stopped saying it. i've learned to listen to patrick. >> guys, back to you. coming up -- thanks, phil. chip -- gene munster joins us. chip-which, shows you what i'm thinking. yesterday's move in the sector. as you can see, it's carrying over to this morning. "sawbo" mi rhtacquk x,congig bk. e at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset. so how do you invest in gold? sandstorm gold royalties is a publicly traded company offering a diversified portfolio of mining royalties in one simple investment. learn more about a brighter way to invest in gold at sandstormgold.com.

box." check out shares of apple this morning. the tech giant hitting an intraday record high. just over $237 a share before pairing gains. stock getting a boost after the company unveiled its new ipad mini which has the iapple intelligence in it. and bring in asset management managing partner. where are we here in the cycle of this stock and maybe in the cycle of the products? >> andrew, i think we obviously are early, and one of benefits is the stage effect. something i've never experienced in my long time of investing and analyzing apple.

the key feature, of course, software. you mentioned apple intelligence. it's going to be layered out, parked october 28th, call it 15, 20% of those features come out and then call it another maybe 30% come out end of the year, and then it's not until march where the real substance of these features come out. that, of course, will be the gpt integration along what will happen with the siri overhaul. when you think about where we're at within the cycle here, this going to be a pretty unique dynamic, and i just want to kind of play it forward to earnings on halloween. that if the iphone numbers are weak, i suspect that the investors who be optimistic, myself included, will probably give them a pass. probably give them a pass again in december and maybe even in march, because those substantive features aren't coming to end of the march quarter. so i think where we're at is early but this unique dynamic of

you basically have two or three "get out of jail free" cards as an apple investors around the iphone numbers in the nine months ahead. >> so here's the thing i can't understand, gene. if the true feature set, which is going to, for apple's sake, hopefully light the world on fire in a good way, doesn't really come into march, and that those, because it's software based, is going to take those folks who even have a physical phone that can take advantage of those things, it's going to take them a month or two or three or even four to genuinely start to get that word of mouth out there about the wonders of this, if, in fact it is as wondrous as i imagine apple hopes it to be. if you're me, i buy a new phone every year, but part of me is always thinking, well, should i buy the phone now? buy the phone later? if i don't -- if i weren't to hear about sort of these new feature sets, call it, i don't

know, april, may, june, you start to say to yourself, the new device is probably coming out october, november, next year anyway, the fall. i'll wait until then. is that okay by you? >> again, you have this unique setup where this carrot out there will exist for apple investors for consumers, and you mapped it out exactly how i think it's going to be. this kind of staged rollout. so what i've experienced is -- >> you don't think about it as an advertisement for what happened with the phone next year? not as a reason to buy the phone this year? that's the question. >> well, i think it's, too, the more substance that i think the anticipation for next year's phone, the more sub ststance ard the features will bode well how investors think about 2026. in other words, if i'm just wrong on this, i think that iphone ultimately this year, probably buried the lead here.

i think iphone's going to have a great year, grow at 15%. the street said 7%. we walked through how i get there. but even if i'm wrong on that that this ultimately all this pushes to fiscal '26, really a year from now. when the excitement starts. i think that that would be even, create an even bigger year, and, of course, investors are always thinking 6, 12 months in advance. bottom line, when the features come out are they actually going to create utility? something consumers are clamoring for? i believe they are. i think that there are some major shortcomings of how we interact with the iphone today that are going to be solved by this. so if those features do prove to be as significant as i think, whether the cycle hits in '25 or '26, i think is largely less of a point. i think what matters most is how many units they're going to sell over the next two years and i suspect it will be clearly a record of iphones.

>> how much do you think the apple intelligence piece is what's going to drive this? and what is the piece of the apple intelligence that will be the sort of prime mover? >> i think the piece that's just going to be able to understand what's going on in your phone. to be able to find text. imagine if you're looking for, trying to find a text you had a text conversation with two different people. it's almost impossible today whether finding images, generating, that's, i think, at the most basic level it starts. the early features kind of later this month. as it progresses it's getting into more of this a.i., we talked a lot. well documented, zuckerberg talks about it. concept having apping actually do tasks for you. asking the app to contact customer support at my cable company and resolve a bill. set up an uber. book a trip. there's infinite number of time that we spend doing little things that the machines could do better.

i think that having a -- basically one of the frameworks of apple intelligence, allowing developers to build those types of apps. when i think about that, and then add to that kind of that final piece around gpt and doing more generative whether with email or content creation on your phone, it's going to be material and, again, we'll see, start to see glimpses of it. this is all based on essentially presentations at this point, but that's the framework that i believe is going to be the substance that's going to power a couple great years for the iphone. >> gene, thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. it is 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. amon today's top stories -- morgan stanley out with third quarter results. the bank topping analysts profit and revenue estimates. among the highlights, investment banking revenue up by 56%.

and the global wealth management division saw record net revenue. that stork up by 2.7% right now. don't miss a first on cnbc interview with ted pick, 10:00 a.m. eastern time on "squawk on the street" with leslie picker. inflation in great britain dipping below the bank of england the bank more than three years. inflation in september came in at 1.7%. that was below a 1.9% estimate. the new data boosts market expectations for an interest rate cut from the bank of england next month. and nfl owners approving former quarterback tom brady as a minority owner of the league's las vegas raiders. the seven-time super bowl champion bought a roughly 10% stake in the team with his business partner knighthead capital founder tom wagner. they are buying into the raiders at about a $3.5 billion valuation with an equity investment of about $220 million as part of that partnership.

the two men also have to pay a tax that will be split among the league's 31 other owners. >> interestingly, allowed to cover the game, fascinating to me. allowed to cover a raiders' game but not allowed to talk to the players or coaches or to go inside the locker room or certain other things. so they've put a hold and set of restrictions sort of what he can do as a member of the fox media team that covers it, because he's owning -- >> my guess is they would like him as an owner. the nfl. and obviously fox would like him as a commentator. >> i just saw one piece on one of the sports pages that tom finally add mitted a fumble. something against the raiders ended up saying a forward pass and, when in fact, his hand was not -- i don't know. people -- people that love, you know, just sports memorabilia and remember that incident with

the raiders. i'd like to own a team, sort of. 5% of 220 is what he's putting up. no, no. half of 220. 110. i saw 5%. >> i saw 5%. >> tom brady. yeah, 5%. i get he can't bet against the raiders or -- >> no. cannot bet on any team in the nfl. i don't believe you're allowed. >> wow. a big problem for me. >> biggest problem. >> a big problem. >> other than that you'd be an owner. >> other than that, i could be an owner. >> just get some season tickets tharnlg . >> that would be a stretch. which team? >> choose. >> no. it's earth day. isn't it? >> green on. >> no, it's not earth day. i'm confused. every day for me is earth day. every day. in fact, i've been trying to only breathe half as many

breaths today. >> we appreciate it. >> so -- futures -- this morning -- going to exhale. futures this morning, a quick look pt we're at, up 26 points. turned positive. oh. nasdaq up 35. s&p indicated up 6.5. for more on the markets over to mike santoli at the nyse. joe kinahan was on, mike, saying that people hate -- still not a rally anyone's excited be or that anyone believes after 45 new highs. do you get that feeling, too? or -- some people must believe in it? >> i was going to say. overstated saying nobody believes or it's a hated market. i definitely think reserve of people believing or fully trusting it. i mean tsh, it can get a lot mo exuberant than now. nos extreme or dangerous. you can slice that either way. you see the trend certainly is strong and a lot of people are saying as long as that's the case, it's hard to argue with fed cutting rates, earnings on

the upswing, the economy doing better than expected. all of the big picture things working in the right direction. 50 day average on s&p here, too. it's gotten a little stretched relative to that 50-day average, but actually because that average itself is kind of accelerated higher, 50 days ago, by the way, trading days, about that early august low. therefore, we have strong move off that. it's actually managing to retain the benefit of the doubt. yesterday you had big, big stocks weighing on the index like nvidia and others, but yet more stocks up than down. 300 new highs in the new york stock exchange against 25 new 52-week lows. a broad, inclusive rally. we'll see if it's deferred to a pullback or if we'll get one. all of these reporting, and a lot of ayes on this. transport, all-time high back in november of 2021. trying, trying, trying. obviously a decent signal,

although not necessary one . s&p up 25%. not fas you need them to be leading the way. certainly a decent macro signal. other bellwether groups mentioned semis pressure downward yesterday. struggling well below highs from the mid-summer. itb, home builder, other secular growth. scarcity driven group hanging in there despite choppinessin rates. relative to the s&p 500 over two years. a lot of growth expectations and excitement in the leadership sector is this market had been in, andrew? >> mike, if -- >> yeah? >> will you go along with me if i start a campaign to replace intel with a different chip stock? do you think it's representative of the chip industry anymore? is it -- >> certainly not as much as it was. no. >> not at all. >> pretty small. >> amd is three times, four

times -- three times the size, probably. >> right. nvidia's ten times the size of amd. >> exactly. it's just -- should we start -- go ahead. >> self-conscious, though, about the implications when you start deciding you have to eject the laggards out of the dow. intel and microsoft went in to the dow in november 1999. the first nasdaq stocks to go in. everybody thought you if was a mega move and, of course, only about, i don't know, five months before the big top in tech in the overall market. so sometimes you have to be awarelications are chasing the winners, shuffling around. >> what are the chances intel's on its way to $3 trillion? zero. zero. what are -- chances it's on its way to $200 billion? maybe. all right. thanks, mike. >> yeah. meantime, learning a lot

more about elon musk's political contributions this election cycle and looking through some of those filings, joining us this morning, emily wilkins. >> good morning. poured nearly $75 million backing republicans through america pact. one of the largest donors of the 2024 election accord toing to aw filing released last night. the only donor to his america pac last quarter. $60 million to trump and another $5.1 million to republicans running for competitive house seats across the country. now, most of the funding went to canvassing efforts, knocking on doors, phone banking. really critical for house republicans. the house, you know, considered a toss-up, but house republicans trailing their democratic counterparts in fund-raising. the release was the most detailed look how much of musk's own money has gone into the race

but only covers through the end of september. from what we can tell from filings so far this month, musk may even be giving more in october opinion so far america pac has given roughly another $43 million to trump and down belt republicans and of course only musk's america pac. musk himself has given to other super pacs including one to scott pressler focus on registers republicans and getting them to vote early. musk also announced last night he will be doing a series of talks in ski swing states of pennsylvania, a price of admission, though. you have to have voted in pennsylvania and signed his petition backing free speech and the second amendment includes giving your name, email and cell phone number. guys, of course, a huge amount of money and could have a major influence both in the presidential race and then, of course, down ballot as well. because congress has these toss-up races this year.

>> emily what are the requirements, to see elon? >> so you have too have voted pennsylvania, where he'll be and sign that petition he announced. >> show that you voted? like, just show -- a receipt? effectively? >> i will be honest. he did not detail exactly how to show you voted. maybe show up with a sticker they give you? a part of elon's bigger push, get to them out voting, ski it in spending, how he's chosen to spend focused on this ground game making sure individual republicans are registered and getting out to vote for trump. >> said it over and over and over again at that butler rally. >> what is part of his petition? >> first amendment, free speech and second amendment opinion gun rights, firearm rights and the one elon musk put it forward, but as part of signing this petition, you're also giving

information like about email address. something that campaigns, democratic, republican, all across the board, they find that incredibly useful information to have, because that allows them to contact voters further, make sure they're staying in touch with them, ask for donations. of course, different pacs use this data in different ways but valuable data to have. and clear other efforts that america pac put forward, musk is gathering quite a data base of information. >> i saw him do this in a speech with the former president. tying, in his mind, the first amendment and second amendment together. >> uh-huh. >> interesting. because i would have imagined there's probably a large group of people, very, very large group of people for the first amendment. nobody -- not -- >> hard to have the first without the second. >> heard him make that argument. a question mark about -- >> historical.

>> what the second amendment looks like and what it actually protects. >> remember he said 25 a more for three months. turned out -- remember? denied it. >> then denied it. >> looks like it came to pass. >> emily, thank you. appreciate it. when we come back, former ford ceo markle fields will join us on all the latest electric vehicle headlines and quite a few lately from european countries voting to hit chinese evs with big tariffs to prices for used evs taking a dive. that's next when "squawk box" comes right back. ♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something?

♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

worldwide electric vehicle sales hitting a record high in september with a lot of help from china. research ferns rowmegs shows manufacturers sold 1.7 evs globally up more than 30% year over year, but kernel concerns . the "wall street journal" highlighted depressed resale

value for those vehicles. joining us, mark fields, former ceo of ford and a cnbc contributor, and i think the general feeling a lot of people have is, oh. nobody's buying evs anymore. that's certainly not the case. what do the numbers show? >> well, the numbers show that ev sales continue. they're upper trajectory here in the u.s. and around the world, you've seen them reach new heights, for example, here in the u.s. in terms of market share and in terms of volume. so the good news for the manufacturers is ev sales are up. the bad news, it's costing them a ton of money, and one of the down sides of this is when you look at residual values, people that previously bought evs, those residual values are literally plunging. so that's going to have implications for consumers, because when their vehicle is, their loan is higher than the cost of their vehicle, you know, that's going to keep them out of the marketplace. it's also going to put a little

bad taste in their mouth when it comes to buying their next ev, if they do. from a manufacturers' standpoint, it's costing them nor money. importantly, because the new evs are leased, almost half in the u.s. are being leased, that's sticking the manufacturers of the automakers with the residual value risk. so not only challenging to make money on new vshess vs, they w lurking on their balance sheet. >> it's more costly for manufacturers because had to offer bigger incentives to get people to buy them from the get-go? >> yeah. becky, for the manufacturers, it's really around building scale. right? when your building scale in the auto industry, how you work down the costs. they need to build scale. they've built a lot of joint venture battery plants with battery partners and have a lot

of capacity. th they have to build that up. they need the scale and to do that they have to spend a lot of money to do that. so this transition is courting them a lot of money, and that's why these automakers, very strong ice businesses that produce a lot of profitability and cash flow, that's so important for them to kind of bridge this profit desert, so to speak, on this transition to evs and leaves smaller players vulnerable. >> trying to get through this desert, as you call it, to bridge to the point where you get people to come back in. the residual values being down. why is the market, the used car market, for evs so depressed? what's the issue? >> actually, what you're seeing on the usaed car market, first seeing prices come down. right? because as manufacturers put incentives on new vehicles that depresses the residual values on

vehicles. >> yeah. >> and kind of brings it down, but you're actually seeing used vehicle ev sales grow pretty substantially, and tesla, they're main competition may not be the other automakers. it may be that used tesla sitting on a dealer's lot. a lot of dynamics are going on now and again, why more people buying evs are leasing them. they don't want to take that residual valley risk. rather leave that with the manufacturer. oh, by the way, government ince incentives. caps on the vehicle and the income the buyer makes. that goes away when you lease. there's a loophole there. so the customers and the manufacturers are taking advantage of that. >> what do you make of the talk of tariffs or -- tariffs on foreign-made evs, or not

allowing autonomous vehicles that are foreign made at all? do those make sense and how important is it for u.s. manufacturers of these cars? >> well, becky, there's a lot of debates on tariffs. right? here in the u.s. tariffs are now 100% for imported chinese vehicles. it's a double-edged sword. right? on the positive side for the automakers here in the u.s., it gives them time to get their house in order to become more and more competitive, particularly on evs. because the chinese automakers have such a competitive advantage around costs and you're seeing that play out in places like europe right now where in the market, you know, the chinese players have a significant market share, and they're battling it out with the european automakers. the other side of that is, you know, these -- the automakers need to compete against the chinese automakers around the world. so you put tariffs here in the u.s. they still have to compete

in places like europe and asia. and so you have to kind of compete, so to speak, at the cold face there, to learn how to get your costs down. so i think for right now, here in the u.s., it's a point in time, but every automaker is, would go really hard to compete with these chinese automakers, because they have to. you can't escape the math. >> mark, thank you. it's a longer conversation. i guess we're getting closer to 10%, that 10% threshold of evs. next time on we'll talk more about that. thank you. >> you bet. coming up some pretty big hiccups, as former president trump rolls out a new crypto project. a live report on that. ayst tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

a rough start for former president trump's new crypto concept. joining us, good morning. >> good morning, joe. world liberty financial, aspires to be a sort of crypto bank launched its token sale tuesday. the project's website suffered regular and lengthy outages contributing to a limited number of sales. the team said well over 100,000 people were on the list to invest but blockchain shows less than 9% of the total who registered actually hold the wlfi tokening. in a road map given to perspective investors looking to raise $300 million. so far sold around 770 million at 1.5 cents per coin. less than 4% made available for public sale amounting to $11.4 million. a ways to go to make it to that $300 million fund-raising goal.

i reached out to the team for consult on the launch and haven't heard back yet. the actual crypto bank connected to the token is not live yet. it only just begun the process getting approved a week ago. until voted on and cleared for launch all that money raised now will sit in the project's treasury. meanwhile, crypto wasn't the only dark spot for trump's related investments on tuesday. shares of his social media platform truth social plunged nearly 10% at the close after trading was briefly halted when the stock suddenly plummeted. joe? >> yeah. i don't -- i don't know. i don't know what the prospects for another coin are at this point. can you give me any other coin i need, that people should really be focused on, besides, than i don't know. a top five? i couldn't even name the top five, i don't think. >> interesting. last night the trump 47's joint

fund-raising committee put out their latest filing. the trump campaign raced more than $7.5 million in a mix of tokens. go-to major cap coins, bitcoin, ether, xrt. we've noticed with respect to crypto native coins a part of the dialogue, this election cycle, the kamala harris team has is starting to see donations in cryptocurrency. and a billionaire contributed $1 million in xrp seeing shifting allegiance from the crypto community to the harris camp as they have conversation with her behind the scenes. >> hmm. interesting. all right. thank you. >> thanks. coming up, some breaking economic data. bringing it to you. a new read on import prices is ayxt. st tuned. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

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welcome back to "squawk box." about to get new data on import prices. rick santelli has it right now. rick? >> absolutely. these are september prices for imports and exports, and, of course, pay particularly close attention to any information we g garner, regarding deficits and trade and how they affect

revisions to gdp, of course. import prices expected to be down 0.3 are down 0.4 of a percent. the biggest month over month change of the year to the down side. going all the way back to december of last year. let's strip out petroleum. that month over month number is up 0.2, a bit better than expected and reverses the negative read minus 0.1 last month and equals where we were in may to find a higher number you have to go to april when we were up 0.6 of a percent. now, switch gearing and look at year over year import prices. down 0.1. we were expecting a number closer to unchanged. this follows a robe but pop last month, which was up 0.8, and that up 0.8, of course, is now completely reversed to down 0.1. we haven't had a negative number in this series since february when it was down 0.9%. export prices on a month over month basis. expecting a number near down

half a percent down 0.7%, that's back-to-back down 0.7%. comping, of course, to the biggest read, minus 2.1 midyear last year. mid, talking may. interesting is, down 0.7 is the way we finished the last two months of last year. we've had several readings this year. so it gives us an idea on the export side what's going on with regard to potential trade partners and finally on a year over year basis, down 2.1%. second biggest drop of the year. first down 2.4% in january. there's some subtle revisions coming out, but the revisions especially on the month over month export and the month -- and year over year export prices, down dramatically, the revisions are bigger. last month's down 0.7 becomes down 0.9 and year everynumber do 0.9. these aren't pating a

particularly good picture even though imf says global activity will pick up. learned about inflation in the uk today. a lot of buzz about that with my sources, but do keep in mind they're actually trying to address deficits. the u.s. is somewhat spending out of control. a really different flavor on many of our inflation metrics and do keep in mind, sure it was talked about, but interest rates, they may have peaked at least temporarily. we're giving a 4% test to ten year and at a time learns this morning from nba, 6.5 higher. on a 30-year mortgage. two month high? might see those numbers come down a bit. an important test of 4% but as a technician i have to say the treasuries, yields, moving higher over the last several-plus weeks have been led by long maturities building mow

me momentum that seems to have dissipated. >> talk about that now. before you went there, rick, thinking about that with our next two guests. talk more about the markets, fed and overall economy. chief investment officer and chief economist also at msnbc and mikko securities. both here. i can ask a question and all i have to do look at one of you. i won't have to single one of you out who should answer. now i have to decide who to actually look at. there have been very few days since the 50 basis point -- looking at you, sarah. since the 50 basis point cut. very few days the ten year rallied. yields have gone up. is there anything to that? i mean, the treasuries still got to offer a lot of stuff. does it not? people will ask for a certain yield. no reason to think that it's going to just track to 50 basis

points, but has it been odd that it's, yields have done nothing but go up? >> i think because investors are drinking kool-aid when it comes to a soft landing and seeing it with earnings season. companies are coming in reasonably strong, tech side especially. the bar is pretty low this earning season. 4% year over year growth versus last year at 11%. we're concerned the soft landing narrative may not play out the way investors want. election 14 trading days away and the fed. even coming in strong with a 50 basis point cut, pricing out in november. most likely 25. the company's strong, fed slow and not seeing yields follow the pack. >> basing it on what the fed does. does anyone care what bond buyers end up doing. i agree with what sarah

said, joe. the last couple cycles, '01 and '07. fed cut 50 initially and sold off. steepening, long end selling off. makes sense. repeated history the last two cycles. going forward, depends obviously who wins. what happens with the inflation data, looking stickier. do we have the soft landing a lot of variables. ten year settled in at 4% range. see what happens next. >> another "wall street journal" survey i think and even more so than last time, the economists of the "wall street journal" they think trump's policies could be more inflationary even than kamala harris'. what do you think they're looking at? that -- across the board -- >> looking at me? my question. >> across the board -- >> yeah. >> tariffs looking at giveaways for taxes? >> joe, the problem with that is

multifold. one is that there's going to be more deregulation. when president trump took office in '17, federal register went from something like 75,000 pages down to 60,000. more deregulation. increasing supply and productive capacity. going to drill. and you're going to reonshore. if the after-tax cost to capital is much lower as it would be arguably under president trump's policies that's good for productivity and inflation. we had low prices -- >> going to be -- >> not at all. you have to remember. even the cbo, non-partisan, is going to score what president trump is saying as being deficit driven. i don't believe that. look at the cbos numbers in '16 and the jobs act, revenues met under president trump's plan. i think there's a bit of a bias in terms of focusing on demand and not the supply side.

i don't think the economists are thinking inflationary. i think quite the opposite. >> sarah, going to the election. oh, there's an election. once we get through it, does anything change, regardless of the outcome? >> first depends how we get through it. normally in an election year you see a little pick-up in volatility. haven't seen it this year. what if the election is contested? one data point, the year 2000, bush versus gore. thats, delay who we know is the next next president, going into this election almost at all-time highs. going forward, as joe mentioned. we have to think about the expiring tax cuts. could be up to 4.6 trillion spent to renew those and tariffs bringing more manufacturing closer to home could be inflationary. also inflationary pressures out of either candidate's hands. shelter inflation. wage inflation because of the strong jobs market. many drivers of inflation. i think it's tough to say just one candidate versus another will really cause such a pop in

inflation. >> have you seen anything that gives you an idea about who's going to win? any sectors of the market? anywhere? look at bitcoin. you can look at the banks. anything? >> i mean it's tough, because if you look at the polls, right? looks so tight at this toint. i think companies are right now offering more how are earnings doing? bank earnings pretty strong. story of the week banks versus technology. technology stocks rolling over, but asml put our guidance going forward november 2022. i can't predict what i'm going to do tomorrow. that's a challenge to continue to -- >> there are some trump in indicators these doing. >> could i come back to inflation a second? i want to mention do a lot of drilling, increase energy capacity federally. the energy side is very important. >> good for price of it-ish did. >> joe, here 's the thing.

the tariffs. energy concentration, economy versus import share of the economy, energy is bigger. having low energy costs is very central to keeping cost of living down. >> and get too low people stop drilling, right? >> the whole point, you're drilling to produce that commodity and if you onshore you have low taxes, low regulation. onshoring. all the pieces fit together. >> can you point to anything that makes you think either candidate -- >> let me be -- here's what i'll tell you. if i'm on the democrat side i'm worried, because the, back in 2020 we had about 155 million ballots cast. about 70% of the eligible population voted. highest since 1900. of that hughley 155 about 67 million were mail-in ballots. according to m.i.t., 2-1 sdem

democrats to republicans. fewer kbaballots, harder to harvest. for democrats not as high in 2020 and a very, very narrow margin. accumulative loss, take georgia, arizona and wisconsin, less than 44,000 votes. so it's very narrow. again, comes down to turnout. who turns out and how many ballots are going to come in through the mail. that's really the issue. i think favors republicans right now. factually, just fewer mail-in ballots than back in 2020. >> although i think it was in georgia they've already started mail-ins and it's off the charts. more than -- >> yeah. accumulatively and of course where are the ballots coming in to? >> okay. joe, thanks. sarah, thank you. coming up, a.i.'s thirst for power and the reembracive nuclear. what the biggest tech companies want out of these next generation systems and whether the public will support an

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all right. welcome back, everybody. breaking news on a major investment from amazon. diana olick joins us with an exclusive from amazon's headquarters in north virginia. diana? >> well, becky, amazon web services is announcing it is investing more than half a billion dollars in nuclear energy across three different projects as it seeks carbon-free

power for generative a.i. and cloud computing here at home in virginia, home of half the data centers in the u.s. aws signed weren't agreement with the state's company to explore and smr, a small nuclear reactor near the nuclear power station. projecting power increase by 80% over the next 15 years. just spoke with the ceo about why nuclear? >> we are looking forward, and we see the need for gigawatts of power in coming years and not enough wind and solar projects to immediate the need. nuclear is a great idea and new technology safe and easy to manufacture in a much smaller form factor. >> smrs are an advanced nuclear reactor with a smaller

footprint, physically, allowing them to be built closer to the grid and faster build times than traditional reactors. >> it is safer. so the technology is self-contained in how cooling is done. it's a new technology how that works and a fundamentally different way about, going about powering these plants. so it is a safer technology. >> amazon is also announcing a new agreement with utility company energy northwest to invest in development of smrs in washington state. built and owned and operated by northwest providing energy directly to the grid also helping power amazon operations. part of that amazon's climate pledge fund is also announcing it is the lead anchor in a $500 million financing round for x energy, a developer of these smr reactors and fuel. x energy providing the parts and nuclear fuel needed for the northwest information project. amazon is the latest in a slew of tech giants investing in

nuclear. on monday google announced it will buy power from kairos power coming from their smrs the first expected online by 2030. back to you guys. >> diana, i was noting here, i thought it was interesting. there's a personal investment being made in all of this by ken griffin of citadel, and also looking here that aires management is a big investor in this? >> yeah. a lot of investors behind this. you saw big tech going into it and mentioned earlier microsoft issals a behind another, opening three mile island for nuclear pow around they see it as a great alternative. winter and solar are there, but not enough. seeing big backers, big and small, actually, from start-ups we talk about as well as big tech and the investors behind that getting into nuclear now, because it is scalable and they believe they can get many of these small-scale reactors right next to data centers where they need them to power all of this

a.i. we keep talking about. >> diana, thank you. appreciate it. for more on big tech's plans to power a.i. using nuclear energy we are joined by mark nelson radiant managing director. how realistic in terms what does the time frame look like? talking nuclear a very long time. getting it right and getting it soon seems to be the bigger question. >> timeline is absolutely one of the fairest and first questions. without a doubt we'll see a load for new a.i. locked in place with whatever power plants are available, as the long-term plan to deploy nuclear comes to fruition. in other words, they're going to figure out where they want to put data centers. make sure transmission will work. get whatever power they can available, and then build it up along with deploying the new nuclear. >> i think the bigger question is, where is this stuff going to actually reside? are they going to get the permits to do it?

is there going to be a whole sort of, not in my backyard situation still? has that changed? >> it absolutely has changed. one of the first things i would say is that almost every american nuclear plant was originally sized back in the 1970s and '80s for double or triple the amount of nuclear power that eventually got built with the turn-away from nuclear in '80s and '90s after three mile island and chernobyl. existing plants have massive corridors and you don't need anyone's permission to add more wire if you aren't taking more land. at the nuke colors plants operating for 30 or 40 years, now that turns into a turns in because it means that everyone living around the plant knows about the plant, perhaps at the plant, there's a yes in my backyard that you're going to see overwhelmingly in these projects. >> in terms of cost and in terms

of return, given the way the technology works right now, do you look at this sort of slate of big investments as, you know, major wins economically? do they need to be tested to sort of get to the next place because there's going to be sort of, you know, cost issues on the first round of these? >> well, this is just the beginning. that's what i would say first. for example, this amazon deal is much bigger than google's deal from two days ago, but it's much smaller than microsoft's deal from several weeks ago, so the microsoft deal is senior high schooled -- valued in over $10 billion in nuclear electricity but this amazon deal is an excellent start. we'll start to see the bigger investments in nuclear power. this is still a very gentle feeler effort in a way from amazon, as exciting as it is for the nuclear industry. >> should we be worried --

someone sent me a note right now about this -- is there any worry that nuclear -- given the capital requirements to get it going, becomes owned by all the big tech companies? >> i don't think that's going to happen. i mean, much more likely is that big tech companies do not want to operate nuclear, so to get a nuclear plant built is still going to require funding and buy-in from a lot of parties. i think what's going to be clear is that after a decade of pointing the public and the government and nonprofits in one direction, all the big tech companies said, we're powered by renewable. it was false. it was never true. they were being powered by the grid, which is coal, nuclear, hydro, and some renewables and natural gas. what we're seeing now is that the big tech companies are finally stepping up to a leadership position that they always should have had to deploy the nuclear that will benefit all of society. >> who are the big winners in this? what's investable here, if there's folks who are watching this, saying to themselves, is

there a way to invest in this in the right way? >> well, here's what i would say. this is probably a picks and shovels play where there's a lot of technology development that's involved in this amazon deal. there's a lot of experimental work that needs to happen, a lot of engineering prototyping. it's very exciting for the development side, but if you're looking at deploying now, it's probably going to be some other players. here's what i would say. if big tech is willing to throw off ten years of anti-nuclear dogma from inside their own companies, because they desperately need the power, i would say that's a bet on big tech being serious and pragmatic to get the energy it has to have, and what that means, it's long nuclear. >> okay. i want to thank you for joining us this morning. >> thanks for having me. coming up, let's see. top stocks to watch as we head towards the opening bell on wall street. tech outweighing the major coins

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all right, shares of united airlines up about 1% in the premarket. the company reporting third quarter profit and revenue above expectations, forecasting strong results for the final three months of the year. united also said it's initiating a $1.5 billion share buyback that earned criticism from some corners. the association of flight attendants international presidents aaron nelson joined us earlier on the show. nelson's union members are working without a contract. they have authorized a strike if they can't get a new one. they are, by the way, in with a federal mediator at this point, and there is a plan they can fall back on if they're looking at what american airlines just passed last month with its flight attendants union, but here's what nelson had to say. >> looks like when a company actually wants to work honestly with you to get improvements to workers, and that is not what's happening at united airlines and instead, they are sending this money to wall street, rather than investing in the frontline workers who are with the

passengers more than anyone else. >> after our conversation with sara nelson, we spoke with united ceo scott kirby. here's what he had to say about the flight attendants' contract. >> i told the flight attendants that they're the face of united airlines and they're doing a great job, and they deserve, and they are going to get an industry-leading contract. and so, we're working with them. we're -- at their request, we're in federal mediation. we're going to get there. they deserve and they're going get an industry-leading contract. >> share buyback, it would be united's first since before the covid-19 pandemic. and again, you're looking at the shares today, up by about 1%. little more than half hour now to the opening bell on wall street. dom chu joins us with a look at some of this morning's top premarket movers. hey, dom. >> joe, becky, andrew, let's recap things off with an earnings mover. morgan stanley right now up around 3.5% after posting an earnings beat and a revenue beat for the quarter. the bank said each of its three

divisions generated more revenue than expected with investment banking revenue surging by a whopping 56% 23rfrom a year ago. couple key analyst calls out there. cisco systems is up around 2% after citigroup upgraded that stock, saying that wall street is underestimating tailwinds. the firm adding that with more a.i. coming, they expect continued investor rotation out of the semiconductors and hardware into networking equipment and that should benefit group valuation, so cisco systems up on that call, and shares of estee lauder down nearly 2% after hsbc downgraded that stock to a hold and revised its target price down to 100 bucks. it was $130. the firm said a recent trip to greater china and warnings that the beauty segment pointed to excessive optimism from hsbc, the firm noting that the ongoing restructuring could affect morale and lead to more staff leaving the company, so estee lauder down 1.5%. for more on those and other top calls of the day, head to

cnbc.com/pro. subscribers get the full story there, guys. >> man, that is one -- that chart needs some beauty products or something. that is one hideous chart you're looking at there, dom. in a nutshell, what the hell happened? >> since the pandemic and lipstick on something, there's a whole trend right now of greater china being a real drag on some of these personal companies' names and by the way, estee lauder is in the midst of trying to turn things around at this point, so we'll see what happens. >> okay. thank you. let's get a check on the markets. nothing's happening. we didn't need to do this. we could have talked about whatever. but while we're at it, you can see the nasdaq's up 14. dow is up 2 and change. by the end of the day, the actual end of the day, end of the market day, who knows where we'll be? probably up. i don't know. maybe not. join us norm. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪