trades." steven weiss? >> transdigm. we saw united's report, and the after market is still robust for aerospace. what is is heck is easterly government? >> they own government properties and they just bought a new one in colorado, 7.5% yield, and jefferies upgraded it with a $15 price target. >> carrie, booze allen? >> defense consultants. that's a good defense to be in. >> joe? >> oneok. the energy sector is struggling, but that is the name to own. >> there we go. "final trades" time, love it. by the way, i'll see all of you on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. "the exchange" starts right now. ♪ ♪ >> brian, thank you very much. welcome to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen in today for kelly evans. here's what's ahead.

the mag seven domination is not over, says one of our guests, as the group gets ready to start reporting next week. he sees an unusual opportunity in that trade, and one name in particular, and he's here to make his case. plus, buy now, pay later giant affirm, up 65% in the past two months. this as a record number of holiday shoppers plan to use bnpl to make their holiday purchases. the ceo is here with the trends, the catalysts and what he sees ahead. and less than three weeks away from the election with big money pouring into both campaigns. policies pouring out from both sides. we'll game out what it means for the markets, for u.s. businesses and consumers. but we begin with the markets and dom chu with the numbers. >> the markets are now at the highs of the session, tyler. to give you an idea what's going on, you had some marginal losses early on in the day, but we are

now up 265 point on the dow. 43,005. so above that 43,000 mark again. 5832 is the level for the broader s&p 500. up 17 points. this is the session high at this point. we were down roughly seven points at the low. so swinging back towards some momentum levels in the middle oh it have day trading. the nasdaq is underperforming on the day, up 21 points. which brings us to 18,337. a couple of things to keep a close eye on. we are seeing a record high in one key part of the market, and that is with regard to transportation stocks. it is not the dow jones transportation average, which is the price weighted index of those 20 stocks in the dow transports. however, the etf, which tracks another measure of transportation stocks, has hit a record high level. put a star up there, up 1.5%. one of the biggest contributors to that trade so far this year has been the biggest waiting in

this etf, which is uber on the raid sure side of things. and speaking of traps ports, one of the big earnings headliners, united airlines, the best performing stock in the s&p 500 is up 11.5%, and the announcement of a 1 $1.5 billio buyback program. and morgan stanley, a big surge in investment bankings there. so morgan stanley, ual, two of the best performers in the s&p. >> dom, thank you very much. big banks in the books in terms of earnings. but that means earnings season is just getting started. that's where we get started talking chips, commercial real estate and manufacturing. steve grasso joins us for his trades. he's the ceo of grasso global and a cnbc contributor. good to see you. first up, taiwan semiconductor

shares are nearly flat right now, heading into the print. but up 80% this year. they're also a street favorite. no sells, one hold, 43 buys. sima is here with what to watch ahead of the results. >> taiwan semiconductor manufactures 90% of the world's chips, seen as a bellwether for the sector, and a barometer on artificial intelligence. nvidia, amd, even intel depend on them to build their ai chips. if anyone disrupted the production, the backup options are very limited at this time. last quarter, the ceo hinted at supply constraints. investors want to know if inventory remains tight. any delays could slow the rollout of ai applications. analysts know the bar is much higher for tsmc, so they have to look and sound good,

specifically on outlook. they add a trump win would be a negative for the company, following remarks for the former president who accused taiwan of stealing america's chip industry. wall street expecting a 41% year over year jump in profits, morgan stanley naming them a top pick. now let's turn to steve and get your trade. you're skeptical on taiwan semis, steve. >> yeah, i'm skeptical as what the actionable momentum is from here going forward, tyler. obviously, you called it. it was up 82% year-to-date going into this print. look at the chart and see if the crack staff can overlay nvidia on this, as well. because however nvidia goes, so goes the market and so goes tsm. nvidia is up 170%. taiwan semi is up 80 something percent, 82%. you have, as seema just said,

geopolitical risks. try to diversify to arizona, germany, japan, different areas. but above 80% of their manufacturing is in taiwan. then you have to think of this -- so asml, they talked about a negative outlook for net bookings. that's all of the semiconductor industry. for taiwan semi, where they're getting the most juice and the most momentum is the ai portion of it. so i do think that they have further to run, but they have run so far so fast that if you're look forg a little bit of a pullback in the overall market, this is probably the most susceptible for them. >> you mentioned earlier how much nvidia is up so far this year, and compared it with you much taiwan semi is up. not small amounts, 80 something percent. but how much of that difference between nvidia's gain and taiwan's gain is because taiwan

is in taiwan, and taiwan is under pressure? >> yeah, well, if you look at it from a revenue base, taiwan semi's revenue, their portion of revenue they get from nvidia i think is roughly 11%. so there are other -- and if you go amd, that's probably around 5% of the percentage of their revenue they get from those two chip companies. 15% as a whole. so there's 85% noise from the other companies, but i do believe if i had to assess this off the fly, there's probably a 30% correction from the geopolitical risk, because let's remember, tyler, it's not if, it's when china is going to invade. >> yeah. let's move on to sl green. shares are up about 60% so far this year. commercial real estate continues to recover. the company flagged resilience against the economic backdrop

last quarter and pointed out strength in rental leasing, especially in manhattan. the street feeling good about slg with overcore and citi upgrading the stock last month. you're a buyer here, steve. >> yeah, if you look at the chart, there's no denying the momentum behind this one. it's moving averages since last year around this time. it does check back to the 50-day moving average. it did that a couple of days ago/a week. if i think about buying this one, it really does have a pattern of making new highs. so -- or new recent highs i should say. but ask yourself this question -- are rates moving higher or lower, rhetorical? they're moving lower, that's a tailwind to sl green. premium properties, manhattan, premium buildings, manhattan,

premium tenants in those areas that they service. the issue they do have as a headwind, and it's up this year, is that people are still working from home. look at where i am right now. so if people work from home, it's still going to be a headwind. less office space, less premium. but i think the puck is moving to more people in person, less days at home, and that's a net-net positive for sl green. >> let's move on now to another one that is totally unrelated to the first two, that is snap-on, shares up 7% over the last three months. the tool and equipment manufacturer announced a $500 million buyback program last month, but has faced recent weakness, roth mkm flagging concerns about customer spending with global economic disruptions last quarter. do you think they can turn things around? this has been a consistent revenue grower, steve. >> so they're a revenue grower,

they're a dividend grower, and they have margins above 50%. so, the -- >> pretty nice report card. >> exactly. that should in theory keep investors invested. this is at all-time highs. as a stock trader, you're never going to go broke buying all-time highs in stocks. you could have some volatility, but this stock in particular, a golden cross is when a shorter term average moves above a longer term, specifically the 50-day piercing through to the upside of the 200-day. this one recently had it at the end of september. usual li, it's a positive. sometimes that move is somewhat over. but it makes me want to buy the stock. it's a premium brand, and they're trying to diversify from just the automobile area sector to aviation, and then in schools, as well. they are the premium name in

tools. their brand is perfect for the person that wants to buy a premium brand name. they have all the leverage in the right places. the key is, though, and i'll leave you with this, the three names that we're talking about today are prone to an economic cycle. so if the economy does roll over, which the fed is trying to defend against, and i think that they were late, but if they -- if it does roll over, all of these stocks will trade with the overall market and the economy, and they will roll over. but all of them are quality companies that have a past history of performing well for the investor. >> steve, thank you very much. great to see you my friend. steve grasso. mega cap tech also under pressure the last three months as investors shift from growth to value. our next guest believes the mag seven's dominance may not be over just yet, and he's especially bullish on google, which he says is the cheapest

it's ever been compared with the s&p 500. he's a chief market strategist at mai capital management. chris, good to see you. take us through your thesis on google here. it's not been the superstar of the mag seven, but it hasn't been the real turkey either. i guess tesla has that crown. >> tyler, good to be with you again. i hate coming on here and recommending google, because i'm a value guy. and plus, what value do you add by recommending google? if a value guy likes it, maybe somebody ought to pay attention. it's trading at its cheapest multiple relative to the s&p in its entire history. so i also -- let's pull the camera back. i think the economy is actually not just in decent shape, but in really good shape. the first state of earnings that we just received from the financial companies are terrific. when you talk about united airlines today, not only is it up 11%, we have an airline

buying back over a billion dollars worth of stock. i can't remember the last time that's happened. so the economic indicators seem really strong to me. at the same time in a month we'll have the election behind us, that's going to be a positive no matter who wins. so if i think the economy will continue well, where are the strongest earnings going to come from? they're going to come from these technology and communication stocks. as a value guy, i'm sorry to say that, but it's true. so which ones are lagging? google is lagging. it's got a terrific, almost monopolyistic position, and it's selling at 17 times next year's number. i think it's a no-brainer. >> so i guess the question would be, is trading rather more like a value stock than like a yoet stock, it is at historically the lowest multiple it's been relative to the s&p 500. but does it deserve to be, in part because of what you just

mentioned, one of which is the -- any trust worries this company may face? >> sure. i've got to tell you, i'm old enough to tell you i remember owning microsoft in the late '90s when they were under the anti-trust scrutiny. that stock tripled during the six-year duration of that case. so don't let that dissuade you from a good investment. do the math yourself, but this is a great chance to buy a stream of earnings that are pretty reliable at a really attractive price. >> do you think that google's primacy, as the king of search, is as secured as it has been over the past decade, decade and a half, or either through government action or just market action, others may come and creep up and nibble away at that moat? >> that's a terrific question, because you're asking the right question. it's not the government i'm

afraid of than the market. are they going to come up with other search engines? is apple going to not make google the dominant search engine on the iphone? i think the answer is that google will retain its space, but i think at this price, you're getting paid to take that risk. >> you also didn't want to leave the stage without mentioning your affinity for pfizer, which has a lot going on, including a very nice dividend by the way, so you get paid to wait. but also the entrance now of a potential activist in the shares. why fpfizer? >> you're right, i didn't want to leave without saying i'm really a value guy. i'm liking pfizer at ten times earnings. this reminds me of verizon, which has done terrifically. you get paid about 6% to wait. there's a lot of ways to win. if you can go from 10 times to 14 times earnings, get the

dividend for a couple years, you'll make 50%, each if the market rolls over. this is not sensitive stock. in an election year, these health care stocks tend to suffer. in the following year, as plans unravel for more health care spending, these stocks tend to rebound. so we're counting on that. i just don't think there's much downside here. >> chris, thank you for your help today. >> good to see you, tyler. coming up, shares of truth social parent trump's media, and it's only wednesday. shares up 9% today following a 13% jump before closing down double digits, as we are three weeks out from the election. we'll look at the policies being floated to win over voters and the impact they could have on markets and on businesses. plus, buy now, pay later provider affirm, up 9%. this as customers continue to use bnpl for everything from

shopping to funding vacations. the ceo will join us exclusively ahead with the trends he's seen and something that may surprise you. "the exchange" is back after this. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc. at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

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welcome back to "the exchange." we are less than three weeks away from the election, and we are following the money at this hour. eamon has the companies donating big money to the campaigns. we'll dig into the candidate's latest economic proposals, including trump's penchant for tariffs and tax cuts and a look at how businesses in the battleground states have faired under the biden administration. let's look at what the mega donors are doing. >> there's some mega mega donors in here, some of the biggest names in business are showing up in the latest quarterly campaign finance reports, which dropped just last night. on the trump side, we see billionaire merriam adelson, she's given $95 million to the pro-trump preserve america pac. dick uhlein has given $49

million to the conservative restoration pac. he and his wife are former ron desantis supporters. and elon musk has given $75 million to the super pac he created in may to support donald trump. musk appeared with trump at a rally in butler, pennsylvania, earlier this month, and starting tomorrow, he plans to give what he calls a series of talks in the battleground state of pennsylvania, although the trump campaign says that's unrelated to the campaign. on the kamala harris side, the harris victtory fund brought in more than $630 million, and donors giving at or near the legal maximum of $929,600, included me linda french gates and lorene powell jobs, and venture capital tycoon tim draper, who had supported nikki

haley in the republican party, now showing up on the harris side of the ledger. >> there was a story today in "the times" that indicated that on the harris side, she has raised so much money that she's now having curiously maybe a harder time raising money because people think she's got enough. >> yeah, these are ludicrous amounts of money. i'm old enough to remember when there was a campaign finance regulation. there were caps on what donors could give, designed to keep people from giving the amounts i just rattled off to you. but billionaires can flood the zone financially to pac where is the campaigns can raise direct money online with individuals in huge amounts of money. these are amounts that we have not seen before in elections. it does water down any individual donor's ability to make a dent in all this. at some point, it does raise the question for a campaign, going into the final weeks here, if

you're out there asking for money from donors, they're going to say money for what? you have a billion dollars. what do you want more money for? what could you spend it on in the last two weeks? they always find a way to spend it, though. >> thank you very much. president trump laying out new economic proposals at an event in chicago yesterday, including tariffs as high as 50% for companies with factories overseas. >> the higher the tariff, the more likely it is that the company will come into the united states and build a factory in the united states, so it doesn't have to pay the tariff. [ applause ] >> that would take many -- >> no, no. in fact, i'll tell you, there's another theory is that the tariff, you make it so high, so horrible, so obnoxious, that they'll come right away. >> let's talk about whether that plan would lead to the intended consequences, meaning the repatriation or building of

factories and manufacturing capacity in the united states. with james luc yier and tobin marcus. welcome to both of you. james, former president trump saying among other things yesterday that his favorite word in the dictionary was tariff. and that he wants to do this because he thinks, number one, it will protect american companies and manufacturing here. but number two, that high tariffs will cause foreign companies or american companies that are manufacturing overseas to repatriate that manufacturing here. is there any evidence to support that happens? >> not really, no. not at all. the studies consistently show that tariffs are ultimately passed through to consumers. you can argue whether or not 100% is passed through right away. if there is a direct substitute in the united states, maybe it's not all passed through.

but what we're seeing is that tariffs are effectively a tax on consumers. that's completely consistent in all the economic literature. >> james, a lot of the tariffs that president trump put in place in his administration were against china. they were precovid. they continued through covid. of course, we had post covid, a tremendous amount of inflation. which i think was mostly attributable to supply chain issues and opportunistic price raising on the part of companies. but how much did tariffs, if any, contribute to the inflation that we saw in the 2021-2022 time frame? >> well, obviously tariffs can contribute, but it depends on whether a tariff, like a tax credit, is permanent or not. if president trump is mutti put tariff on china in the contest of a big deal where hey, i will tariff you today but in six

months, next year, i'll take the tariff off, then companies, which are worried about difficult consumer environment, like there was during covid, respect going to pass that tariff on right away. they will absorb it as long as they can. but once it's clear that the tariff is permanent, once it's clear that the tariff is going to be even higher, then i think they do pass it through, and i think the experience validates that perspective. >> tobin, let's say hypothetically that president trump prevails in the election, and is able to push through the kinds of tariffs that he says he wants to push through, which american industries and which american companies might be the biggest beneficiaries of a very much higher american tariff regime against foreign companies? >> so, when we think about winners under tariffs, there are probably more loser than winners. there are a lot of companies that have exposure to china in

terms of exposure to chinese supply chains, or exposure to chinese in markets. but when we think about winners, i think the farther you go down the value chain, the cleaner the story that you are benefitting from the loss of foreign competition without facing higher costs. you know, even if they're benefiting, they also have to worry about loss competitiveness, vis-a-vie non-u.s. competitors. so steel and other basic materials are clearest story about potential winners from tariffs. i think investors are primed to play steel as a space that benefits from tariffs, even though we do have tariffs in place on chinese and other steel products. >> if i heard you right, you said the imposition of tariffs would cause more pain -- there would be more losers than

winners is i think how you put it, and that those loser would be american consumers, because they would end up paying more for the consumer products that they buy that are imported, am i understanding? >> yeah, i think there are losers among producers and very clearly on consumers. from a consumer perspective, as james was laying out, we would expect this to be inflationary. every study on the impact of trump's tariff proposals, show most of those costs are internalized by u.s. consumers, showing up as higher inflation and higher rates as the fed responds to the possibility of inflationary shock. and on the producer side, anyone incorporating this into final manufactured goods, whether from china or somewhere else, faces the prcost of higher pressure, d

this is one of the areas where trump moved most aggressive to impose tariffs on chinese imports. if you're a manufacturer of finished goods in the u.s. -- >> so, before i turn back to james, tobin, one final question for you, and that is this -- it would certainly seem that if we go to a high tariff regime under a second trump administration, that foreign manufacturers, foreign countries, most notably china, would not take that lying down, and that they would retaliate one way or another. i can think of several companies that china would be pointedly retaliating, might be apple, might be nike, might be starbucks, might be others that do large business there. or, or the pharmaceutical companies that buy constituent chemicals from china to put into drums that are manufactured and

assembled here. am i off base in thinking that? >> no, you're right. i think retaliation is a significant risk. all the events of the 2018-'19 trade war with china suggests that we saw an underperformance for companies exposed to china. and there have been headlines this week that various trading partners are preparing the idea that they might retaliate. >> james, what do we know about what harris might impose or lift in terms of tariffs if she becomes president? >> well, she's been clear that she would keep the biden tariffs. there's no plan to negotiate those away with china. actually, in the context of the renegotiation are the view of transshipment of products from

third countries. whether it's southeast asia or whether it's chinese steel even, as president trump was suggesting, chinese electric vehicles from mexico. and trump suggested 2,000% tariff in the case of those. so harris will not be dis dismantling the biden tariff apparatus. normally, mexico would be subject to tariff it is they include something like chinese legacy chips. also, something that would allow the government to tariff goods made by chinese manufacturers who are located in mexico or some other country, an mfm country normally entitled to access the u.s. >> final question, james. over the last generation, over the last 40 years, the

prevailing sort of intellectual thinking has been towards free trade, low tariffs, and so forth. if that is changing, what would it do to the level of economic growth globally, if we do from low or no tariff regime to a much higher and much more competitive tariff regime, would economies grow faster or slower? >> first, i would like to point out that most other trading partners in the u.s. have a border adjustable regime. they tax goods coming in, and that would make a lot of sense in the u.s. i'm not completely given up that the trump administration might do that. that's something paul ryan considered, maybe the administration might go back to that destination based cash flow tax, which i think would integrate the u.s. better into the world trading center than simply going all out for tariffs. as far as tariffs go, we've seen this movie before.

the tariff act of 1930, which trump references, has another name. the smoot holly tariff bill. so there's no need to do a science experiment. we can look at the data. rising tariffs increase costs, they increase inefficiency, they make supply chains less flexible, and if the entire world starts raising tariffs, you can see that the effects will just -- it will be something that probably won't continue for a long time in the u.s. for that reason, i doubt that congress would go along with keeping such tariffs in place for a long time, perhaps not even at all. >> all right. james and tobin, we appreciate your perspectives today. thank you very much. meantime, scott cohen krumpbl crunches the data and has a look at how climates have changed in several key battleground states, business climates that is over the past four years. he's in arizona, a key battle ground state. hey, scott.

>> reporter: hey, tyler. yeah, most of the swing states have improved their business climate in the biden/harris years, but there's a lot of nuance in there. arizona has gone -- definitely improved. it's now 12th in our top states for business rankings for 2024, versus 20th at the start of the pandemic in 2019. and behind me is a big reason why. this is the semiconductor manufacturing complex. of course, it was announced in 2020 but has been supercharged with the chips and sign act. arizona now has the fifth best economy in the nation. that compares to 12th back in 19. it has the sixth best workforce, that is a decline and issue here, particularly at tsmc because they've had to delay production. it has the second best infrastructure, which was super important this year, and really, they have the power grid that

can help all of this development, even in the arizona heat. but this state does still have some serious issues that keep it from becoming a contender overall. 47th in education, which is where it was four years ago. consistently bad with large classes and with low spending. the lost of living is rising, even compared to other states. and with poor health care, even poorer air quality and a 15-week abortion ban, arizona is 41st for quality of life. we have been looking at all the swing states. five of the seven top states have improved their to have state's ranking overall in the bearden years. arizona, georgia, michigan, north carolina, and pennsylvania. nevada dropped in some key categories, including infrastructure and business friendliness. and wisconsin, which saw a big drop in education. we have put all of these snapshots on our website where you can also see, tyler, where your state ranks. >> scott, thank you.

very good to see you. coming up, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6.6%, with demand for mortgages dropping 17%. but rates are just one factor rk n's got up in niche housing maetear implosion. we have that story ahead.

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investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com welcome back to "the exchange." i'm contessa brewer with your cnbc news update. in a report released today by the national threat assessment center, the secret service made recommendations to stop mass shootings, calling on local law enforcement nationwide to add behavioral assessment units and gather information and manage potentially violent situations before they become a reality. the man who was arrested near former president trump's coachella rally in california with two loaded guns is suing for defamation. in the lawsuit, he alleges the riverside sheriff made prepp preposterous claims, saying he was a trump supporter and never planned to harm the former president. uber and lyft riders can

enter a promo code on or before election day while uber riders can access the discount on the s&p, although uber excludes georgia and california for that. tyler? >> thank you very much. coming up, shares of affirm up more than 10% over the past week after four analyst upgrades. wells fargo writing their sophistication rivals any lender in the market. that's next. (cheerful music) (phone ringing) [narrator] not all multi-millionaires built their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the bootstrapper. the bootmaker. yeehaw [narrator] but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice. every day, over a million multi-millionares trust schwab with more than two trillion dollars of their wealth.

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welcome back. shares of affirm up 16% this month, and it's only halfway through, following upgrades at wells fargo, and others. with analysts bullish on the rate cutting cycle and its new partnership with apple pay. and shoppers are opting for buy now, pay letter. adobe estimating spending on those apps will reach $18 billion in the fourth quarter alone. joining us is the founder and ceo of affirm. max, good to have you back with

us. >> great to be here. thank you. >> your revenue is rising, that speaks to the health of the business, but it speaks to the health of the consumer, doesn't it? >> that's right. i think the rumors of american decline are greatly exaggerated. u.s. consumers are spending. they're gearing up, and we are very excited to help them get access to responsible credit to make sure their christmas checklists are filled out. >> so responsible credit is really the key phrase there. so that leads to the next question, which is are those consumers able to make their payments under buy now, pay later, how much is that changing for better or worse? >> you know, i think we've become known in some of those upgrades that really speak to the fact that we have been able to maintain predictable, high quality credit outcomes for our capital partners, which means that our borrowers are paying

back their loans on time every time that. is what we have built the company around. underwriting the expertise, and being very deliberate and honest with our consumers. every loan affirm makes, every transaction we underwrite is a conversation, can i, should i borrow this money, should i buy this thing? sometimes the answer is no. we try to be honest and humane about hey, you're everextending yourself. by doing that, we are helping our borrowers making sure they're living within their financial means. >> we said in the introduction, one of the analyst firms was complime complimentary, saying your credit analysis operation is the equal of any in the business. it's interesting to me, about half of your customers earn less than $60,000 per year. but that doesn't tell the whole story. we just had a graphic up there that showed by income, your customers are spread out across lots of different income

brackets, and that the average household income per customer is $74,000. so you see there, that 25% make between $20,000 and $40,000. but a lot of them, 19% make between $60,000 and $100,000. >> that's right. and i would like to take this opportunity to dispel a really wrongful myth. buy now, pay later, affirm in particular, is not for folks in financial trouble. it is for people who want control over their financial life. that is what we hear from our consumers, control, clarity, sense of certainty, knowing when i will be done pay thing off. we don't charge late fees, we don't have junk fees that some companies love tothrow in. but the most important thing we offer is a sense of control that. is valuable for folks that are under $60,000 a year and with triple digit salaries and huge

savings. >> you have a tremendous presence in the merchant area, like amazon, dick's sporting goods, walmart,target. but it seems increasingly that you're moving into the world of experiences throughpartnerships with companies like royal caribbean, american airlines, priceline, and so forth. tell us about that. >> yeah, it's a well-known truism that younger generations value experience over possession. we want to meet our young consumers where they are. something like 65% of our consumers are gen -- millennial and younger. so more than half the customer base is traveling, they're deciding to get out of the house. they were spending the last couple of years any way traveling like it's the last thing they do, and it's really important to us. we are investing very heavily. travel -- >> is there anything in the economy or the credit profile of

your customers that keeps you awake at night is there anything worrisome to you? you said that the economy is doing well, people are getting ready to spend for the fall season and the holidays. is there anything out there that has you on the edge of your seat? >> i sleep very soundly at night. we will be cash profitable. the season isn't anything other than the fact that we don't really lead these things to chance. one of the things i see all the time, credit outcomes are an input into our business. we decide what sort of risk we are willing to take and manage, and that's how we shape our borrowing underwriting policies. we're not holding our breath, because we are in anticipation -- i sleep very well at night.

my only angst is how can we ship more exciting things for our merchants and consumers sooner? i can't wait for the fourth quarter sales to really come through, because the biggest thing this season, this holiday season will be zero percent deals. we did a huge survey, and the appeal is now big enough where people value no interest loans with no gimmicks and no fees, just as much as they love discounts. that's grog oing to be a huge t. >> i'm glad you're seeping well. max, thank you very much. before we head to break, let's check on shares of syncony, shares up 4% this month. more on "the exchange" after is.

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west palm beach, miami and fort lauderdale seeing some of the biggest declines in pending home sales lately, according to redfinn. robert franks joins us now. what can you tell us? >> tyler, south florida is seeing a big jump of inventory before the hurricanes hal lien and milton, listings in coral gables, delray beach up 70%. west palm beach, wellton, fort lauderdale seeing 60% increases. prices have started falling. in miami that's the biggest drop in any location in the country. brokers say the hurricanes are likely to lead to more listings and a new law that requires condo buildings to fund large cash reserves have led to a glut

of older condos in the market. you have the insurance costs causing even wealthy buyers to look elsewhere. signed contract for miami homes prided over falling 57% in december, and palm beach contracts over 5 million down 50%. for more on whether the florida dream may be fading, don't miss my live conversation friday with billionaire real estate investor jeff greene. you can scan the qr code there on the screen or head to cnbc cnbc.co cnbc.com/insidewealth to registers. what would the reason be? the hoa assessments? rising -- or the inability to insure properties? what? >> yes. so, it's sort of the perfect storm, not to make storm analogies. even before the storms it was the hoa fees, the insurance and

florida has had a lot of nevin toy continuing to come on the market with new developments throughout the past two years. other states have a hard time developers raising money. florida is easier. it's the new development in addition to the properties you mentioned. >> my son lives in del rey. robert, thanks. appreciate it. that's does it for "the exchange", everybody. "power lunch" is up next. i'll see you on the other side of this break.

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