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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  October 16, 2024 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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and i think bentley is good match for that. tim? >> brian, be well on your road trip. have fun. >> thank you. >> great having you here. i think the road trip for energy stocks is one that actually looks interesting here. and with oil all over the map, exson moves higher. >> yes. baba spreads, i've been putting a toe in slowly and today, baba spreads, and new york liberty, tonight, game three. >> go liberty. >> go mets, yeah. >> alibaba, not baba o'reilly. >> freeport-mcmoran. >> tim's got a mets shirt on. everything is fine. thanks for watching, everybody. "mad money" with jim starts now my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help
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you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to "cramerica." my friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to explain what is going on so call me 1-800-743-cnbc, tweet me @jimcramer. have you ever wondered why more people haven't become millionaires from owning stocks? i'm sure you have and i will tell you why. asml holdings. another great day where the gal and nasdaq grew you're wondering why i'm talking about asml. what is asml? keeping people from making money in the market? i don't want to insult the people that work at this dutch equipment maker. the ability to make smaller, more energy-efficient transistors at the right price.
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smaller transition -- transistors translate into smaller less heated chips. which is why asml, when it gave a horrendous forecast yesterday that it did actually by mistake. they got the day wrong for the release. a lot of investors figured it must be gain over for the semi conductor stock. it has plummeted from $872-$683 over the last two days. it was natural to assume that it must be because of weakness across the board from all of its clients. while asml is relatively unknown versus the american semi conductor companies that is made it marks -- more mysterious and inscrutable he terrifying. i give you the long introduction because the world caved in for the semis. it happened yesterday.
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everyone of the chip stocks including with artificial intelligence was crushed. it doesn't matter that asml said they are still getting tons of orders from those that make the chips, nobody believed any good because the guidance was horrible. you know what they say, the guidance was the guidance. the instant reaction, a plethora of stories about how to play the semiconductor bull market. it was dying. remaining falling all over each other just at the close of yesterday at the closing bell to write the definitive obituary for the group even if it is less of the group being combined with the pride of lions. this will make people miss out on what could be the next leg of a powerful semi conductor rally with the skepticism right
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in our face. in short, asml and negative one- off stuff just like it are the reasons why i have to say nvidia, own it don't trade it. all the time i say it. people cannot withstand the negativity like we had yesterday coming from commentators who don't know anything about nvidia except you are supposed to panic, you are supposed to sell and even if it's down five you've got to leave. that means the rally is over and it's time to call in today. last night i told you this was the height of idiocy. i have been saying this since it was two dollars and now it is 135. sure enough it came right back up. only those that stuck to their guns or ignored the asml news managed to hang on. what
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was happening at the exact moment people were squeezing it? the ceo was given a speech where he said nvidia would like to achieve essentially superhuman productivity. he said, this was going to be the largest industrial revolution we've ever seen and we've seen an extraordinary awakening in every single industry, every single country, on one hand we have punk struck asml shouting get out now, throw in the towel. on the other hand we have the man who almost single-handedly kick started the a.i. revolution telling you how the world is being reinvented. jenson is not worrying about how to dump stock. he never thinks about it. is hoping that the company that
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manufactures his chips can get enough machines from asml in order to scale up. they make these highly advanced chips that are in short supply. you need that equipment to make chips with tremendous speed because speed is sustainability, and efficiency. i don't think the need for speed is going away. it's only going to increase especially when they are putting up nuclear power plants . did you see the utility index was the leader today? there is one issue. these plants won't be ready for six or seven years. everybody else has concluded the huge shortfall means the entire industry is dying or dead already. when you see amazon announcing a nuclear deal today do you think, what a bunch of bozos they are? don't they know asml is telling you to fold up your tent ? are
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they just a bunch of hyper skill clowns? i think it is more likely that the people that jump -- dumped the chip stocks are the clueless ones. you can't just order 100,000 chips, the latest and greatest nvidia product and be done. they are packed with software. as jenson told me, software never dies. there will be more need for these chips and you can attach them no matter the innovation. you have to keep buying them because you have to keep up. we have revolutions starting in healthcare, manufacturing, climate change, cyber security, autonomous driving, and robots. is the party really over if the revolution just began? i heard a couple of hedge fund managers say it is bad for nvidia. they have to be right because they are rich?
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so yes, call me jaded. say i drink the kool-aid. i did not see any water fountains but there was a bar with tables made from slabs of giant tree trunks. when a company as poorly community as asml is able to point out that the part of the business that goes into a.i. is still strong maybe they really mean it. of course, the show will end tonight and he will say, what was that guy cramer screaming at about nivea cream? what the heck? here is the bottom line. it's because those people who watch all of that stuff want to be counted out that they have not made millions of dollars. if you just ignore the negativity nvidia could have given you a 32,000% return in
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the last decade. i think it still has juice which is why i always say, nvidia, own it. don't trade it. and in indiana. >> thank you for taking my call. i am hoping that you can chat in reference to berkshire. i'm wondering after the club called today maybe i am a little heavy in financial stocks and i could lighten up on berkshire? >> i don't want you to do that. thank you for the comments and thank you for being on the call. do not lighten up on berkshire. that company is more levered to natural gas than anything else. warren buffett has put together an amazing enterprise. i urge you to hold onto that and let it run. now let's go to sam in pennsylvania.
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>> how are you? >> i have to tell you i am concerned about snowflake. this is an environment where they should be doing well with what they do with data warehousing but the company has yet to prove itself at such a high valuation. we are looking at negative earnings growth over the last year. the only thing that seems to be growing in stock-based comp. what do you think? >> i have to tell you i think you are very right. everything you said is true. you've got to put up good numbers in the market if you want the stock to go higher. they have to put up a big 2026. 2025 i don't think they can do it. i think you will be able to say i want to get in ahead of that. until then i agree with sam. i think it is very tough.
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i'm sorry i'm a little fired up. i have my club call and i am upset. . we were able to ignore the negativity. i think you will be able to generate the returns that will crush your paycheck. you have been able to tune out the negativity with nvidia. think about what you could have done. earnings season is in full swing. i check in with some regional players to get a close look. it's real money being made so don't miss my post earnings exclusive. could this continue? i'm going off the charts to find out. and i will reveal the names of investment markets and share whether the positive momentum could continue. stay with cramer.
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don't miss a second of mad money. follow @jimcramer on x. have a question? tweet cramer . send an email to matt money at cnbc.com or call 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? go to madmoney.cnbc.com. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life
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so far in earning season we've heard a lot of good things from banks, especially regional banks. first horizon has been up 4%. i've always said first horizon is a high quality company. they proved to be a steady operator during the crisis.
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now it is up almost 23% on the year. is in ahead of itself or just beginning. we have the chairman it and ceo. welcome back to matt money. >> thank you for having me. >> i want to get right to it. you are buying back a huge amount of stock. i would be saying if they aren't going to buy that i am going to buy it. that's how good the situation is. >> that is very well said. that's the way i think about it. we believe the stock is a bargain at these prices and look for opportunities to buy. we have plenty of authorization. we sort of floored the capital ratio at 11% so we are using that as a governor. anything above that we are looking to invest in the stock in return to shareholders. >> it does seem that the one fly in the ointment you basically flagged deposit competition.
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is it positively less because it seems like you are making a lot of money without having to pay out a lot of money. >> deposit competition in the late second and early two thirds in mid-september was still pretty strong across the footprint. part of that is we are in very good growth markets. you see a lot of people expanding into those markets so you see a lot of competitive pressure. it has lessened a little bit. when the fed cut rates 50 basis points in mid-september, it started to lesson that pressure. one of the highlights for me in the quarter is in spite of that we were able to grow deposits basically 3% quarter over quarter versus the data which is the industry growth over the same time closer to 1%. we feel good about what we are seeing. >> that's what i've been seeing. we have a pretty good money management high net worth
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research group here. there is a guy named robert frank that does a great job. he said, the money is leaving palm beach and delray and going to places like tennessee. that is where the new growth markets are. i already thought they've been growing for a while but is in a second level that is just starting right now? >> i think you are seeing tremendous momentum in places like tennessee. texas is part north, florida, you are right. we see people moving around. it started with the pandemic in 2020 and has continued to build. the number of organizations that are moving into tennessee are just phenomenal. xa i has made a tremendous investment in memphis, for example. we see a lot of investment in the state of tennessee and we
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see a lot of momentum across the state. >> tell me what happens at the pace of what the fed does. charlie scharf told us yesterday -- >> the margin gets impacted at foaming rates to the extent you have a series of 50 basis point cuts that is more difficult for us to manage through than a series of 25 or 25, take a pause, another 25. i don't think financial conditions are extraordinarily tight today personally. i don't expect that the fed will be particularly aggressive this year into next. in our case we have a very balanced business model in the sense that our mortgage warehouse lending business,
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mortgage business and fixed income business tend to benefit from falling rates. we pick up in fee income a lot of what we loosen the net interest margin. we tend to be very balanced the multiple interest-rate cycles which i think is particularly attractive for a bank investor. you won't get the volatility you might otherwise get. >> that is exactly why i've been recommending your stock. one last thing, we have these terrible storms and they hit areas people are not used to getting hit by. what is it like to be the largest bank in an area where suddenly you have unfathomable damage and there's never been thought to be that kind of damage? >> it is really hard to imagine or to really understand. it is a complete tragedy. our hearts go out to the folks in all of these communities whether it's across florida, whether it is east tennessee, or western north carolina.
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we have continued to try to bring supplies into those marketplaces to support those communities. we made a grant from our foundation to support those communities as well. our people are on the street working very, very hard to help the communities rebuild. i'm confident that this will be overcome, but it has been a painful several weeks and it will be a difficult several months, quarters, and maybe years but we will get through it. >> i think those people should be grateful for the help and i know it is a tough time for you. i hope everybody does the best they can but you were a great steward the whole run. we have had you up for a long time and you always tell it right. that is bryan jordan, ceo of first horizon. mad money will be back. coming up, chip scott
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checked yesterday but could nvidia be due for a breakout? cramer charts the course next.
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in the historically tough month of september and still climbing through october? we have had a very good start to earning season with some great quarters for the big banks. the big banks are among my favorite because when they rally they can bring other industries with them. can this two-year-old bull market party continue to stampede higher? to answer that question i want to take our emotions out of the equation because we don't want to be complacent. that's we are getting help from jessica who is now the direct or of investor research at stockbrokers.com as well as the cohost and founder of the market maker podcast. she nailed the bottom in big tech growth stocks this spring? she's been generally bullish on the major averages all year. those are terrific calls. you are probably asking how about analysis. things are looking pretty good. event as pointing out moving to
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a whole host of smaller stocks, she says we still need tech to participate if we are going to get higher. tech does not have to lead the way but it has to at least follow the leaders unlike yesterday. they make semiconductor manufacturing equipment. nevermind asml said they have huge demand for chips for artificial intelligence , money manager sold everything including nvidia even though there is tremendous demand for the machines that make the equipment for taiwan semi which therefore makes it for nvidia. given that it's the most important stock in the market we have to take a hard look at the weekly chart. she likes what she sees and what she sees as a bullish backdrop. the stock has seen what's called a bullish consolidation pattern. you can see that means it is coming together. when i first started this
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segment i did not understand bullish consolidation until i noticed they ome together like this. so for the past couple years, once it's finished digesting your tent to see a cluster going like that and once those almost cross that's when it starts going higher. after a huge decline in july and early august and a pullback in september nvidia is working its way higher again. it still has not taken out that high from 2020. this makes you think nvidia could have a huge bullish breakout. this currently 135 stock could make a close above $140.76 and the pattern is looking really good. pointing out that they have my support just under 120. you see that. that is the third part of the
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average. if it can breakout above $140.76, how high can it go? we will use fibonacci numbers. she thinks it can go -- it's almost embarrassing to say. she thinks it goes to $177. it would be by far the world's largest company unless apple could keep lockstep with it. i don't even have the ability to show you where it is. when i used to be taller it would be no problem but it would be appear. as long as it can keep going higher what will happen is we get the moving average convergence, diversions line. when the black line crosses above the yellow one, that's one of the most reliable buy triggers in the business.
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she says to look for consistently higher weekly closes because as long as it keeps making higher lows that crossover will happen. that matters because nvidia is the key to this market. she will not get a fight from me . how about everything else? there's a lot of stocks. this is why we have the s&p 500. as opposed to the normal market cap where it is dominated by the magnificent seven. check out the equal weight weekly chart. one stock is the same as the other. 2024 has been all about the other stocks in the index. there's a lot to like here. the equal weight is bullish. she likes to watch the 13, 26, and the 40 week moving averages because they represent one, two,
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three quarters. it has a supported floor. the 13 week moving average down from where it currently trades. there is another floor where they equal weight peaked on march 25. right now watching for higher highs. the relative strength indicator, none other important momentum you think it's getting overbought and that is dangerous. some will tell you it's worrisome but you don't need to fret about this going higher when the underlying security is still making higher highs. the s&p equal weight is not overbought. it's just right. as long as it stays above then it is going to continue trading well above those? orderly moving averages. she is very positive again. remember, this is the equal weight.
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all 500 are equal weight. as for the regular market cap, take a look at this. this is a classic picture of a strong trading cycle. it has a nice floor of support were temporarily peaked july 16 based on the fibonacci extension from the lows two years ago. it could be smooth sailing up almost 100 points. again very meaningful. lately it has been bolstered. if we get some more tech definitely yes. then it will keep warrant. particularly you need microsoft and apple. that brings us to the nasdaq. that contains the 100 largest nonfinancial stocks including technology. even though she believes it remains in the bullish trading cycle it has not been making higher highs. however, the quarterly moving averages are still moving
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upwards. the nasdaq has nice floor support at the 13 week moving average. it is down almost 700 points from where the index is trading. there is the 26 week moving average and the prior higher high from march. you see that we have support. as for the ceiling, it made a higher high back in july up more than 500 points. it is headed in the right direction but needs to blaster that high. once it clears that hurdle it was in the whole market into rally mode. once again, strap yourself in. bottom line, the charts interpreted by jessica look pretty good for the s&p and nasdaq and nvidia. we have a bull market but if it's going to keep running we need to see meaningful participation. that's why she
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thinks nvidia is the most important in the market. if it can make a higher high she thinks that's the whole ballgame. as for me, i never bet against the fabulous jenson long -- wong. let's go to mike in illinois. >> excellent call today. >> regina runs the monthly meeting and she thought it was a really good call. that matters because she can be very critical. she said it was good so thank you. how can i help? >> i'm in iron holding and i want to know if i should buy more . >> i'm is good. they had a tremendous relation. i have to tell you i think the
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support will make it. he has a lot of runway. he is a raiders fan. i think they elegated down to where liverpool place. the charts interpreted by jessica, if we are going to get another lake higher we need some more participation from the tax sector. so could this be a theme? i'm giving you my take. quarterly reports are great opportunity to evaluate a position and make sense where a stock is going. i will give you my tricks of the trade for earning season to help you become a stronger investor. then we have the lightning round so stay with cramer.
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all year i have been recommending the two big investment banks, goldman sachs and morgan stanley. both caught fire about a month ago when everybody realized the federal reserve was about to bless us with a double rate cut. it's been a little over a month since the story broke. goldman is up over 12%, morgan stanley shot up over 23%. i like these stocks very much. this is great for the investment bank. they make everything easier. now that both goldman and morgan stanley have reported i feel pretty bullish about the whole industry.
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my former employer at goldman sachs reported yesterday morning and delivered a set of boffo numbers. thanks in large part to a 20% increase in investment banking fees including growth and equity underwriting and data with the not even good market yet. they have 16% growth. they showed kostis a plan. the efficiency rate showed, that was the cost divided by revenue came in better than expected. $8.40 per share. as for the profitability metric it came in at 11.1% when the analysts were looking for 9.5. they were very modest in the call about this. the business is indeed booming. across the investment bank incorporates and sponsors remain actively engaged and we see specific pent-up demand from clients. the backlog grows again and we
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expect the investment banking franchise to benefit. that is huge. the key growth driver now that they have abandoned the consumer finance. the position for the top five ultrahigh network franchise is significant opportunities. he has gotten back in the business of serving rich companies and rich people. they were not lending. when the margins go higher that is the reason i call it golden. there's been some pretty strong things to say. the u.s. economy seems to be resilient. inflation is coming down. while we have seen softness in consumer behavior my recent conversations have been constructive.
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while customers are highly focused on interest rates, election results and geopolitics that is good news for shareholders. that is why you pay them all the big bucks. it was another excellent quarter . the real strength on the asset management side. they went through some pretty lean years and have learned how to keep expenses under control. with the stock trading just 12.6 times next year's earning a huge discount i think it has a lot of time to run. that price share is flat out ridiculous. we have something really bullish going on here. the stock is way too cheap. i would say 15 to 16 multiple seems a lot more reasonable. how about morgan stanley. i'm so glad we on this one
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given that it sort 6.5%. morgan stanley delivered much higher up 16%. the investment banking/sales and put up 20% growth. it is up 56%. equity training was up and that is consistent. morgan stanley has become one wealth management. that saying it was up 14% on the actual business up 9%. they kept expenses under control very nicely. while looking for 75. remember what the expense ratio lower is better. that is what we get. that translated into $0.29 earnings. it was 17.5. that was a major surprise.
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let's start with the wealth management division. the steady growth in asset management. this added $64 billion in the quarter. the total client assets reaching $6 trillion when you add under the investment management decision what do you get? morgan stanley is targeting 10 trillion in total assets and they are well on their way. they saw a big uptick in fee- based assets. those fees are why i love the embrace of wealth management. though i did say no to morgan stanley and went to goldman. as for the security side of things the ceo said, improved underwriting markets combined with increasing participation among sponsors across investment banking support, the broadening equity market are favorable backdrops for the market
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businesses. isn't that just music to your ears? this is about the prospects for meaningful uptick in ipo activity. we talked positively about the bank on a monthly investment meeting today. i should have been more effusive than i was. this morning in the interview with leslie picker with pick and picker, the cetouted both sides of the business. he sounded extra-excited about the investment banking boom. he puts it better than i can. listen to this. >> what i am really bullish on overtime is the beginning chapters of growth across the center of our investment bank which is to offer advice to do the underwriting business but also how it filters into the
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great market business. i think it will take time but we are seeing it begin. we see the places like india, japan, as the economy grows we will see that. >> this is the beginning of the move. what i have been predicting all year is finally coming true. the capital activity is coming back. morgan stanley had particularly stellar numbers. i'm betting this is just the beginning for the investment banks and they have much more upside. mad money is back after the break.
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ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.
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lightning round is sponsored by charles schwab. trade brilliantly. it's time for the lightning round. and then the lightning round is over. are you ready. let's start with david in michigan. >> jim, thanks for taking my call and teaching us how to be better investors. >> thank you. that's what i'm here for. >> oracle, jenson said it is an opportunity for a.i. do you think it can move the needle at oracle? >> it has not been a big payoff yet because epic the private
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company is doing much better. epic will be working with jenson and oracle will be working with jenson but you are in it for the data center and the data center business is excellent. john in florida. >> jim, thank you for taking my call. little conversation in the drug industry about abbvie. >> they are doing great but my favorite is abbott labs. >> this is a very big called stock. >> what do you think about core scientific. >> i think you should just go by palantir. let's go to joseph in florida. >> jim, how are you doing? >> i'm doing well. how are you? >> fantastic.
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what is your take on clover health? >> i know they are doing well with medicare advantage but i don't want to go there. i know it is a good company but i don't want to hurt anybody. let's go to david in texas. >> hey, jim. twin 20 from -- booyah from dan in texas. first-time caller, investing club member. >> thank you. it's like i'm naked out there. horrible thought. >> this comes, you had the ceo on during the pandemic and i got some them. and then with the supply chain issues it's been flat ever since but the new news is they are putting themselves up for sale. the question is whether i should hold on or buy more , pxo logistics. >> just hold on . they are
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having a parabolic move. i think it is a very valuable company and you will probably only lose about 10 or 15% so hold on. let's go to dave. >> dr. cramer , how are you? >> dave, i couldn't be better. how are you? >> i am good. i took a hit on nvidia yesterday but it bounced back quite nicely today. >> i tell you it's like the chicago bears. you can't count them out. >> don't go there, my friend. jim, i am a georgetown grad. of course, i'm talking about fast food greens company sweet green. >> i did not know you were georgetown. our research director is also georgetown.
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he did mention you. can we finish the show before we do this reunion? i happen to know georgetown. i did a college show in georgetown. i know somebody who went to georgetown graduate school. it is terrific. i really like it. by the way, i think the bears are having a good season. i like keenan allen. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round.
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earnings season is incredibly important. this is when we reassess companies and figure out what is time for a rewriting or if
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there is nothing to hang your hat on. this is the direction of things. the fixation seemed misplaced. not the 90 days that was just grated. you cannot wake up and say holy cow. rather than the errors of the economy. there is a reason it is almost all done. i got in this business and assumed it was an arbitrary thing. i got my head around the logical quarterly report thanks to the man who built intel into a powerhouse. it's amazing book, only the paranoid survive.
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this is how it is executed. it is short enough to identify problems and course corrective. of course from any research you come across it makes the most sense in the macro environment of the moment. let's say you are trying to figure out which bank has the most control. dealing with the exact same macro you can see which one performs the best. you can consider previous quarters and see who is the best overtime. a given quarter may have a ton of back committee with the acquisition and lack of ipos. you want the one that is focused with the most measurable's that can adapt to rapidly changing conditions. for me this is a three-part
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process. first the macro itself and how it deals with those issues providing remarkable to see if you are paying too much or too little. on the micro, how a company is performing and how it works with the economy it is integral in being a good investor but it's a long-term thing. so a collection of quarterly report cards telling you how the company did and time of turmoil that is perfect. perfect for my quarterly evaluation before i pull the trigger. i think it is for you. there is a bull market somewhere. i promise to find it just for you. i am jim cramer, see you tomorrow. by working hard... sproing is the next big thing in fitness. whoo-whoo! narrator: ...by working smart... this is gonna be the number-one item on baby registries. -who thinks of these things? -that's smart.

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