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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  October 17, 2024 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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yes, >> yes, and it has been quiet, because we are going to be getting the last bump from the password crackdown, and it is going to be interesting to see how quickly they pick up on the ad side, and it is a big market for them, and something that we are attracted to, and hopefully, that will give us some signs of the uptick for it, because it would be a game changer for the business. >> jerry, we have to go, but would you buy, sell, hold travelers insurance here? >> buy it. you love it when the catastrophes happen to the insurers and they are buying back the stock. >> i think that the polite term is hard market. and the shares are up 28%. thank you, jerry castellini. >> that is all for "power lunch" and "closing bell s" starts now >> i'm scott wapner, and we start "closing bell right now,
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and will this market set up for a year run? and we will set you up for netflix numbers in overtime as well, and with this scorecard and 60 minutes to go with the dow and the s&p 500 hitting new highs, the sales are showing that the economy is pretty good. and standouts is taiwan semi, and that is helping the chip space and nvidia hitting a all-time high on the back of that news, and hot on the heels of apple with the hottest company in that market. and now, blackstone out with nearly 7% there, and it is taking us to the talk of the tape, and the road ahead of stocks which continue to reach new height, and how high can they go? we will ask joe terranova from v vertis, and we also have joe and chase from inverdia,and that is why i go to chris.
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so with the wall of worry or whatever is out there, we continue to be resilient? >> that is still resilient, and we talk on the sidelines with the 50 basis point rate cut, and the cash is looking, and putting it in parts of the fixed income market or into the equity market. we have two things happening within the market today, both earnings resiliency and record profitability within the u.s. equity market right now, and i also think that the last part with that backdrop of the rates coming down, and the disinflationary forces, could we have volatility within the data? certainly. there are other reasons that the market is grinding higher, and maybe in terms of the election odds to the trump favor when you are looking at the financials and other parts of the market, but it continues to be a positive. >> okay. hit on that for a second, the
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election, because the market for the most part has not been paying attention, although there are some out there who say, this move up is trying to anticipate whether trump is going to win or not. daniel lobe of third point put out the most recent investor letter in which i am going to quote from, where he says that the likelihood of a republican victory in the white house has increased which would have a positive effect on some sectors and the market overall, and accordingly we have positioned to benefit in that scenario, and we have stock and option positions and also positioned away from some companies that will not. no word of recession in this letter, says lobe. and we continue to spend individual spending to provide a liquidity backstop to sustain market for event driven lesson. and that means he is referencing
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a republican in the white house, and deal making and in a way forward he is seeing the market and how it may go in the months ahead. on that note alone, because he is positive on the backdrop, you say what? >> well, assume that dan is correct, and that president trump wins the election, first question for me as a steward of capital is if he is carrying the congress and senate with him. that could have an impact. beyond that, whoever wins on november 5th is being handed a very good economy to work with. and let's be clear on that, and do you fumble a good economy or do you accelerate the growth we are seeing and expand on that, and thor e areas of the market t would expand the most if the republicans have a sweep are the areas of the market that are rallying right now, and so the market is beginning to price in the potential of a republican
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majority, and in addition to that, you are looking at much lower energy prices, and i think that energy would be utilized as a weapon gainagainst some of thd actors in the world reliant on the oil. >> jason, take the environment today and take the election out of it, the economy, good. retail, good. and the fed is cutting rates, and you want to be negative about that? >> yes. 100%, scott. it is hard to fight the tape, and the philly fed was strong, and the claims were lighter than expected and no news is good news, and the fed is gated in policy, and we heard from bostick on the other side of the tape of what they wanted to do potentially with the rates, but 90% chance we will lower the rates again in november, and to chris' point in profitability
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and earnings, it is a positive tape, and hard to fight it. >> assume, chris, that the fed is not as aggressive in cutting as we once thought. you know, we still think that we will get two cuts between now and the end of the year, and even if we were only to get one, it is because the fed would believe it has the luxury of a strong economy. >> being in a strong economy. >> and inflation coming down, and they have the luxury of kind of doing what they want right now. >> this is why the market is not paying as much attention to the fed right now when we are looking at what is driving the market, and it is earnings and election odds, and if we get two 25 basis cuts, they are ultimately looking at the policy of whether the policy is restrictive, and the prevailing rate and inflation, there is room to come dourng wn, and how quickly that happens, may be how people are driving it, but it is really right now about
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fundamentals and earnings, and to joe's point of is the market starting to price in the potential of a red sweep and what that could mean. and even on the 10-year today, is that positive economic data or actually a red sweep? you could argue both. >> and then on top of the economy and the consumer and the rate cuts, you have a belief like what toddp boley told me ot on m&a and talked about lobe talking about the event-driven investing, and if you have a market being reopened, and for all intents and purposes that is what it would be because deal making has been so difficult, that would be helpful to the environment, too. have a listen. >> i think that we are in the process of having lots of m&a get started. we are seeing more and more activity, and people want to transact, and people have to get
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back to the transaction business, and so, you know, it crossed our portfolio, and we are seeing lots of the merger and consolidation discussions going on, and some of them in the earlier days, but the animal spirits are coming back and people want to get back to it. >> i mean you want to put that on top of everything else? >> phenomenal interview, and todd is right, the animal spirits are coming back, and that i will intensify further with a republican sweep for sure. a tremendous amount of m&a is sitting there. >> but you don't need a sweep, because if you have the president under control by the republicans, you don't need a sweep to have a change in the ftc or the other areas of market where you can get the deals done, and that is the view, that you don't need a whole sweep of congress. >> you are are correct, but add the potential of the lower corporate tax rate, and the
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buybacks and collectively, that is an environment where you will see the corporate activity increase. >> and this is a conciliatory market where if president trump wins the current election, and gridlock in congress, maybe you don't have the degree of spending that the former president is talking about with tax cuts upon tax cuts upon tax cuts when we are hearing about the deficit and interest rates especially on the long end of trying to finance the deficit and in and of itself, and markets like gridlock. >> 100%. >> i have people chasing targets like goldman, and he goes to 67 happen by year end. >> yes, in the private equity and the markets and we have been talking about the troughing for
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a long time, and the report of the goldman sachs, and the report of revenue up year over year, and going into '25 directionally off of the rates, it is stim ulative to the econoy and sound for dealmaking, and like that. >> and chris, we will call it sound on this, and 62.70 is where he beliefs we can do, and the highest target, and this is not official stategy, but belsky has 500. where do we from there? >> well, there is a healthy pull in from the year-end rally and some of what we find out from the outcome of the election, and some of it is balance, so we are finding opportunities in quality dividend growers which is an
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area of the market that has lagged, and thinking of the free cash flow jen race, and the ability to return capital to investors and if the interest rates stay at current level, it is irrelevant, butecause they a strong balance sheet companies, and picking stocks regardless of the election, you are playing the trajectory higher than here, but you want to be balanced and not go high either way. >> that is why they are lagging, because the rates were up, and you knew that there was not much competition for the yield, but if the rates are coming down, then a game-changer. speaking of pulling forward, the netflix reports the earnings in overtime, and both of you own it, and there is concern in the marketplace they are pulling forward a lot. that is one of the reasons why the stock has recovered as dramatically as it has, and it is 700 bucks that we can throw it up, because of the password sharing crackdown, because of the ad tier that they have pulled forward all of this stuff at a time when this revenue
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growth is actually slowing and it is looks like it is going to be slowing from here forward, and at 32 times forward whether you are at, as someone asked in an article ahead of me, petak netflix. >> no, it is not peak netflix, but you have to set the expectation in a quarter where the analyst community are chasing the price higher, and as they see the price higher, they are raising the prices at an all-time high at 736, and revenue growth is going to moderate, and 17% revenue growth last quarter, and the estimate is for 14% on this quarter, and decelerating over the coming quarters down to 10. why is this not peak netflix? because they control the streaming environment, and from the standpoint to focus on growth and investing on growth. we will see christmas day, they
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will deliver two nfl games that we will watch. what does that mean to the e ecos ecosystem? to the subscriber base? there is stickiness, and if netflix turns around and says, time for another price hike, and everybody is going to pick it. that is the ultimate degree of it. >> and you are telling me that revenue growth is going to continue to decelerate, and albeit strong. >> strong. >> and i get it, but multiples on the stock, and 32 times going forward, and you are justifying 32 times multiple on the rub which is the debate? >> but it is the valuation conversation of am i using valuation as the guide or to north star of where the price is ultimately going to be in a year, and i am comfortable for the premium on it, and i get that it the valuation is elevated and those who are value oriented are more focused on maybe disney or warner brother,
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but good luck with disney, and i gave the statistic with over the last ten years, it is up 13.9%, and i will pay 32 times on netflix, and get the growth. >> you own it, too, jason and the targets are limited upside ahead for the variety of the reasons that i just mentioned. >> yeah. so a couple of things. obviously, the subscriber growth is going to slow, to your point, moderate this year of 4 million subs, and net new additions and doing 8 million last quarter. part of it is that they are monetizing, and they monetize the existing base from the password sharing which is going to monetize some, and leverage some, and you make a big point about the two major games in december, but that is just the beginning. >> it is not for free. >> they can't afford it. >> and netflix is one of the few name, and there is more than a few that does not trade on the
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multiple. no one cares about the multiple with netflix just because of the many levers they have to pull, and the growth rate they have had. >> but they did care about the multiple when the stock was at 700 and i don't know what the multiple was at that point, but they cared about it when there was a disappointing report, and the stock cratered and now it does not matter because the stock is back to near 700 bucks? >> well, i think that at the stage, they have multiple tiers. and a year over year ad commitment for the stock. the ad supported tier is another lever, and to joe's point, the price subscription, and they can increase the pricing, because they have room there. so there is a lot to like about netflix going fon war and i own it. >> so i am using that as a device, kris, to go to where technology goes from here. you don't have to give me your opinion of netflix, because it is not what you do, but you do
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look at particular areas of the market that do well, and what about nasdaq, and s&p, new high, and dow, new high, and netflix, not quite. >> we have seen the broadening out story, and seen it come to pass, and this year, 10 of 11 sectors should turn to earnings growth, and next year it is 11 of 11 sectors, and that is a material change. and what we saw in the tech more broadly is the opportunity, and over the last couple of days, what is rewarded? it is the true ai story, and looking at where ai is where the growth is at, and while the earnings, as we anticipated is low. we expect beats, and i hate to say it, because it is boring, but it is about the guidance. if the guidance is not there, you can imagine the stocks will be punished. >> and if the guidance does not meet exek p igs ta, and we were
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just showing the best utilities and thank you vistra which is the best performing stock in the s&p 500, and it is not nvidia. >> right. >> and the need for power generation and the mega cap companies and how they source that, and i think that the utilities have a tailwind that is going to extend into 2025. but kristen is so right, because of the catalyst, and sitting here 16 1/2 minutes into the show, and have we emphasized the highlight of the last week looking at the equity market, which is the financial sector of the reporting season was phenomenal, and talking about the revenue growth, 10%, and the earnings growth 10%, and the subsequent price transaction, and it is morgan stanley, and goldman sachss, and look at discovery, and some of the private asset managementers, and
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the setup for the fourth quarter, as we see before, the financial sector is in a perfect position to realize some of the expectations of the last several years and people say, own financials, and own financials, and if there is a chase, own the financials, because that is where i believe it is going to be. >> and now, the final question to kris, for more reason to be optimistic about, and a small caps, do you are expect the big trade up for the year, and on this talking about the top of the program, the top of the program how good the economy continues to be, and how strong the consumer continues to look, and you are cutting the rates in this environment. >> how to expose from the front end of the curve. we have liked the mid-growth,
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and it is possible. looking at the 400 or the 600, that is a great place to be, and small caps, could we be full side, and i hate to bring it full circle to red and blue odds, but if that comes to pass, it could bring in other additional capital, and that could be the rally. >> we will end it right there. thank you, all. we go to pippa stevens. >> and now, the health insurance reported a miss on the profit, and lowered the earning guidance for the year. the company's, ceo reported a unprecedented miss on the medicaid sector. travelers is moving higher, and they are reporting a profit beat for the first quarter, and higher premiums, and investment income overshadowed the
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catastrophe losses. that is up about 9%. scott. >> thank you, pippa. we are just getting started. pfrmt and we will look at the new features coming to the search engine company's features today. and how will they take on alphabet? i can't wait. we are looking at the new york tcngarexchange, and you e wahi "closing bell" on cnbc. futures don't sleep in the after hours, bro. dad, is mommy a “finance bro?” she switched careers to make money for your weddings. ooh! penny stocks are blowing up. sweetie, grab your piggy bank, we're going all in. let me ask you. for your wedding, do you want a gazebo and a river? uh, i don't... what's a gazebo? something that your mother always wanted and never got. or...you could give these different investment options a shot. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think. i'm keeping the vest.
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it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.
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when i was in high school, i went through a rough patch. at graduation, i was like, okay, what do i do now? my mom has just started going to ccc. at the time, she was dancing, holding her books and i was like, okay, i'm going to school with you. i want that level of happiness. at ccc, i'm supported with the tools and encouragement i need. it's a good feeling and i want to tell others that support is out there. you can make your journey and contra costa college can help pave your path. >> we are back, and much of the talk about generative ai is centered around openai, but there is a fast growing player who wants a piece of the pie. and aravind srinivas is joining us. and irvin, it is good to see you
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and welcome to our program. >> thank you for having me, scott. great to be here. >> you have new features you are introducing today that are going to give the users better and more targeted results and deliver them faster. can you tell me about that? >> yeah, 100%. today, we launched the internal knowledge search. and so we want perplexity to be the central knowledge base and research platform for everybody. when people do their research at work, they are not only requiring the research for the data that is already out there on the internet, the web, but a lot of the research is like due diligence, documents or stuff that is relevant to the company that you acquired in a propriety way, and there is no way where you can do the consolidated centralized research on the web and the internal company proprietary data together, and use these for answering the
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questions or doing the due diligence or deciding which companies to invest in, and all of the decisions that you make on a day-to-day basis. and so this is going to do it together. and so far, the technology stack for external search and internal search have been pretty fragmented. they are completely different tool, and you have to keep moving data around everywhere r and it is very inconvenient to do that, but with the advent of generative ai, and tool use, it is like another api collar integration, and so which model to use depending upon the query you are asking, and then bring it into one platform and complexity. that is what we are announcing today. >> it is interesting for the viewers and those who are working in the financial services industry is that you are specifically targeting
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financial services as the largest vertical here, and tell me what benefit is that is going to be for those who are in the financial services industry who are going to be using the tools or forvesting in the market, and investing in those companies who use these tools? >> before the announcement today, we queried all of the stock on the market, and search the related stocks and looked into the big institutional f funds, and all of that information is on the fund for the generic funds, and now you can take your internal data and decide whether you want to invest in a particular company, and you take that knowledge, and query it on the company that was
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talked about on the web, and then what depending upon the portfolio, should you go to invest in this particular stock, does it have the right risk/reward questions. and so this is worth billions of dollars, and it is to give you more clarity. we will bring in the third-party integrations, crunch base, and fact set, and these are the data sources that we are looking into, and trying to get that also under perplexity so that you will have a sense of what the private markets are investing in, and not just the public markets. >> obviously, we are familiar with all of those. i mentioned at the outset and framed this about your company in part that you think that google is vulnerable in search anded a e advertisiadvertising, think that duopoly that is
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existing between alphabet and meta is truly cracking and you can have a conversation in that space that is meaningful? >> yes, it is what the consumers are doing. they used to go to the search engines and platforms where advertisers served them, but now the consumers are shifting to new behavior apps and not just typing in a key word, but getting referred to a another link. so that consumer behavior is growing while the existing consumer behavior of typing in a few key words is sort of saturated, so when you have a new consumer behavior on the increasing trend, it is lucrative for the advertisers to figure out how to be part of that, and try to figure out how to get the users' attention at a different way in what was possible before. every query in perplexity on
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average has 11 words, and on google, it is two to three words. so for every query, it is for the user to ask for targeted questions which is more easier for the advertiser to get the right user for the product. >> interesting for our conversation, too, the news of the day in this area that google's has the search and leading advertiser there and leading employer there. and we will continue to follow, and one of issues with the generative ai and we have seen it with others is the copyright infringement, and you were sent a letter on this issue. and how are you responding to that? >> well, perplexity launcheded a select program, and we invited the publishers to work with us, and we said that we would do an
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advertising-based model. and we would share it with those, and it is a first of its kind, and google took the people's content and never shared any of the advertising revenue they made with the publishers and today, the revenue is so much that everybody feels like, there should have been a better model, right? so the publishers need to see what unique offering we are offering even though ai is different and it is not giving them as much traffic as the existing search engines, but there is way that ai can make the ktraffic which is the opena argument, and the other thing is to take the content as sources to be able to answer people's questions, but not actually training anything on the data, and in turn making sure that the revenue that we make on the queries will reward the people who originally had the content. that is the system. >> and you will make a deal with
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"the new york times" among whatever other platforms that your content pulls from? you anticipate making a deal with them in the near term? >> i hope so. >> we will follow that. >> we are very much interested in wor honestly. >> we will follow that. >> and lastly, before we go. obviously, news of late is the openai valuation 150-plus billion dollars, and the funding round that they just did. they are still losing money. what is your road to profitability look like. you recently raised at $3 billion valuation, and how are you thinking about your own capital needs, and when do you go to market again to raise capital, and what kind of valuation should we look for? >> well, there is a difference of companies like openai and us which is proplex ti, because we are not in the business of
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training big foundational models. so we are not taking the money to build giant data centers like azure or building thousands of gpu data clusters, and that is the reason of the burn for those companies, and we are much more capital efficient in terms of the business. we are a product company, and trying to 3wi8d products and getting it into the hands of businesses and consumers and for them to see the productivity gains of searching more efficiently, and not only profit, because these models are so expensive, and so even if you used them as apis it is still expensive, but the cost of the model is going down, too. every four or five months, the cost of the model is going down 2x, and if that trend continues for a year or two, we are guaranteed 10x reduction in the model. that is great for a company like
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us today, and even though we are not profitable today, we are guaranteed that the cost will go down, and it is a great time to go to acquire the users and make it better and better for them, and figure out the more perfect way to see with the subscription and the apis and what works. >> thank you, aravind srinivas, the perplexity founder and ceo. and now, bill miller iiv is going to join us.
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welcome back. the dow and the s&p 500 are hitting all time highs today. the dow is on track for another record close. it will mark the 39th this year. here to share how he is positioning the highs is miller family partners bill miller iv. welcome back. >> awesome to be here, scott. >> and let's start here, how are you positioning as we continue to hit new highs? >> we are incredibly optimistic, and looking at the environment, things are fantastic. the market is hitting the all-time high, and the bonds with the second best quarter in 29 year, and generally speaking, bonds don't have a good quarter
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if inflation is out of control. so inflation is in control, and you are seeing the central banks are pivoting to the central stance, and the curve is inverted and phenomenal values all over the place, and so we are super optimistic. >> are we overstating to suggest that and everything rally is on the way, and even the market cap spectrum that we can talk about the small caps making their move? >> yeah. well, they have started a move, i think, scott. we believe there is a long way to go when you are looking at the relative valuations, and looking at what is going on in the economy, and some of the momentum behind the smaller capped names, with the opportunities. and if you are looking at the growing markets with embedded growth, and we believe that is the better ones. >> and so who are some of the larger ones? >> well, it depends upon the
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name. we invest in any name, and we don't have any limits. we don't own any of the magnificent seven. and you mentioned a name that was down 10%, and i wanted to flag it, because it is the large nest the etf, and cnt is the ticker, and it is a $33 billion market cap, and they are the health care administrator, and the largest administrate for for dual-eligible medicare, medicaid en enrollees, and they came out saying that they had some issues, and they got whacked. we loved it. we think that the risk/reward is valuable. and we believe they will kick off about $3 billion of free cash this year sustainable growing on a $33 billion market cap with minimal debt, and the
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health care spending chart is up and over the right and off to the left for a long time. so if you can be a long-time investor, we think that centine is a good one. >> and what about bitcoin? >> people don't contextualize the microstrategy very much. they say it is 2 times the bitcoin holdings, but yeah, but two things to consider on that. number one, if somebody wanted to go out the buy 200,000 bitcoin tomorrow, it going to go through the roof, because it is not for sale. and the other reason it is trading at the times the supposed value of the holdings is an interesting one that people don't consider, and that is that microstrategy has been granted a monopoly on the fiat
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conversion business in public markets. we have heard that other companies are interested in pursuing the model in the u.s., and the regulators are not that receptive it to, because it is interest, because it is going to give microstrategy monopoly, and what do they do? trade at premiums, and so it is his duty to his shareholders to do these deals to borrow and convert it. 0.26 which is higher capital than nationsticks, and so it is time for people to pay attention to this. >> and now, the new high in bitcoin. is that the next thing to fall? >> it is inevitable in my perspective, scott. i don't know when, but it is inevitable. >> thank you, very much, bill miller iv. we will track the biggest movers into the close. and pip pa stpippa stevens is b that. >> and we will have more details
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doors lead us to new opportunities. your dedicated fidelity advisor... -surprise! -for you, mama. ...can help you open those doors. by proactively reviewing your entire portfolio. with an eye on taxes and risk. doors were meant to be opened. we are about 15 from the bell, and we go to pippa with the stocks she is watching. >> blackstone is moving higher than expected for the current quarter as the asset manager reported the biggest jump in the portfolio in three years.
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ceo john gray telling cnbc that the recovery in debt and equity ma markets and the company's focus on private credit and india helped to improve. and now, the lucid falls of public offering of two shares of common stock raise 2.67 billion for the group is down over this year. scott. >> thank you. and strong names in the trading space not named nvidia.
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of the trading day. seema mody is here on taiwan semi. and netflix reporting in overtime tonight. alex kantrowitz on what he's watching more than anything else. first, to what mike santoli is watching more than anything else today, that's what? >> tough to quibble with the market action itself obviously. most stocks are kind of consolidating today. you have more stocks down than up, able to rotate away and you have the nvidia jolt that helps the indexes. i think big picture, we now have a very tight embrace and broad recognition that the economy is better than we thought it was two months ago. i'm in the mode of the rally has carried to a certain point where you have to ask, are we building extremes, is sentiment getting too complacent, have we stretched ourselves in terms of expectations for earnings. it is not clear to me you would answer yes to all those things just yet, but i feel as if you just go to the market and say, hey, you know what, the economy is pretty good, earnings are going to be up, the fed is
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cutting, the market's reaction is, i know, that's why we're here. that's the give and take in terms of heading into the homestretch. >> it is simple for some. i quote -- i quoted multiple times today the new daniel logan investor letter. among other things, no evidence of recession, we believe healthy consumer spending and active levels of individual investing should provide a liquidity backdrop to sustain market levels. >> that's absolutely unassailable and the question is always how much of that is already priced. everyone has to remember, in let's say early august, couple of months ago, we were on intense recession watch. the growth scare was real. it can change a lot in two months. i feel as if you have to be aware of the ebb and flow of economic numbers and sentiment. >> seema mody is with us because there is a significant story in the chip space today. that is taiwan semi. and nvidia and many of these other names are getting a nice boost. >> taiwan semi the highest level since 1997.
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jpmorgan in its note saying this report really underscores tsmc's position as a near monopoly in artificial intelligence accelerators. every major chip company that designs chips, they fab with tsmc, nvidia, at an all time high, amd, intel, qualcomm and the hyperscalers trying to work on their in-house a.i. chips. they all fab with taiwan semi. one negative that morgan stanley analysts point out is capex, did come in at the lower end of the range for 2024, 30 billion, the range was 30 to 32 billion. if demand is so strong, why didn't they increase capital spending? the u.s. election seen as a potential catalyst for this stock. mizuho says a trump presidency would be bad for taiwan semi. we'll have to see how that could pan out for the country. geopolitics, ceo did not directly address the threat of china, but did very much say we
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continue our overseas fab expansions. those three plants in arizona, one expected to ramp up here in 2025. >> some chip stocks giveth, others taketh away. asml and taiwan semi. if you remove the angst of the chip space out of the market, that would be another net positive 250. >> it is spotty in terms of what is working and what's not. what i find interesting, as you say, a concern is that capex is a little bit shorter of the aggressive expectations. that's an interesting dynamic. the street wants to see heavier investment and that i think kind of applies to some of the end users as well. that's an interesting mode where there is such belief in let's go there as fast as possible that you're not worried about too much capex spending, you're worried about not enough. >> thank you. alex kantrowitz is here, speaking of big spending, heavy investment in the nfl and other sports too, netflix going to report in overtime tonight. i read articles today that
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suggest that the stock had such a huge run, they pulled forward a lot of stuff, password sharing in the ad tier meant a lot now. maybe it is peak netflix. what do you think? >> i think it is a legitimate hypothesis. an amazing run, almost doubling its share price in the past year, up 46% this year alone. but that being said, we're about to find out what the limits are of this password sharing effort. and if you think about it, netflix added 39,000 subscribers by the first half of last year compared to the previous year. what happened with engagement? engagement was up 1%, really less than 1%. what does that suggest? it suggests that over the year, over all of the additions of subscribers, what netflix was doing was a de facto price hike on the people that might have been sharing those passwords and now the same households are paying double. so i think we're going to start to see that it is going to be very difficult for netflix to continue to increase the way that it has and the rubber is
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going to meet the road, maybe not this quarter, because they're adding 4 million subscribers this quarter, but as the quarters go ahead. >> you get more scrutiny on a moderating revenue growth versus an elevated to some multiple on the stock, 32 times forward. so how does one justify the other if the other is moderating in any way. >> it is going to be tough. netflix has to go with the big bets. we have squid game season two coming out. that's going to juice the numbers and the nfl. the best 150 million that netflix has ever spent in its life because you have great games coming out on christmas day. the chiefs, the steelers, the ravens, the texans are going to play exclusively on netflix on christmas and that's going to juice the numbers. you need a strategy that will continue to have these hits moving forward for netflix to be able to justify its price. remember, massive run-up over the past year and it is starting to moderate a little bit after hitting i t ting its all time h
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week. >> you just never really know what's what. and debating now with nvidia. >> it is true. it is true. usually the market gets it directionally right and the way the overall market acts, the pull forward doesn't always work. usually strong markets beget further strength eventually. when it comes to nvidia, a different story. to some degree people are hiding in the most reliable, cleanest earnings model out there in space, which is nvidia, which is netflix when it comes to anything related to -- we'll see. >> alex, thank you, seema, thank you. mike santoli as always. bell is going to ring. going to ring in a new record close to the dow. nasdaq as well. >> that's the end of regulation. bell ring brands ringing the closing bell a

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