tv Fast Money CNBC October 17, 2024 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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smith as director. >> we know that name. for sure, out of west virginia. so, it's going to be interesting, of course, morgan, to -- thanks, leslie -- watch what's happening with the netflix. the call has begun. they're talking about material that ad and non-ad members are watching. >> and, of course, we know we're looking for any commentary on price increases, as well. amex and slb tomorrow. oil ticked higher, given what we're seeing play out in the mideast. another one to watch, though crude is down on the week. but some concerns that iran might retaliate again against israel here. >> yeah, we'll watch it all. >> that's dog togoing to do it r us here at "fast "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. netflix and thrill. the streaming giant seeing shares jump after a top and
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bottom line earnings beat, and it's getting back within range of a record high. we're dial into the call. we'll bring you all the details straight ahead. and uber's travel plans. they may be interested in taking to the skies. the latest on a potential deal with an online booking giant. plus, taiwan semi revives the chip trade. elevance health loses elevation, and china's rally loses steam. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- karen finerman, steve grasso, dan nathan, guy adami, the boys in miami today. we start off with netflix shares jumping after q-3 earnings. streaming giant beating top and bottom line estimates. the earnings webinar is under way. julia boorstin has all the details. hey, julia. >> hey, melissa. netflix beating expectations across the top line, bottom line, and also guidance. netflix adding more than 5 million new subscribers, half a million more than anticipated. on the call just now, the company tries to shift focus away from sub numbers, they are
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talking about the growth of engagement. there is an average of two hours per day watched per membership. and with so much attention on the company's ad business, netflix warning that it is still early days, saying that ads won't be a primary driver of revenue growth in 2025, but noting that their ads plan accounted for over half of signups in ads countries, and that membership on ads plans grew 35% quarter over quarter. they say that the near term challenge around ads and the medium term opportunity is that they are scaling faster than their ability to monetize netflix's growing ad envenn toir. as for expectations of a price hike, they said in their letter to shareholders they are working to improve monetization by refining plans and pricing. they praised the ad-supported version of the app for enabling them to offer a lower price point. we'll see if on the call, which is ongone right now, melissa, we'll hear more about plans to hike prices.
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>> this always confuses me, julia, what they're basically saying is that their ad-supported tier is in such demand, they need more ad inventory to feed that? >> well, it's all about building the marketplace. the good news here is that having an ad-supported tier allows them to have a lower price point option. that enables them to raise prices for everyone who doesn't want to watch ads. and that's another reason why they expect a price hike coming. but they're saying they just don't have the marketplace to adequately watch the demand for certain type of viewers, with the available of ads for those types of viewers. so, it's really about having the marketplace, because the advantage of ads on netflix, they can be really targeted. you have to make sure you have the whole ecosystem, and it takes awhile to build it. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin from los angeles on netflix, which is up by about, you know, a few percent in the afterhours session. karen what do you make of this quarter? >> everything to love about this quarter, right? the subscriber, even though
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they're trying to wean us away from caring about that growth, the margins were better, it was a really, really good quarter. and when you have revenue growth and you have that kind of business model, you get a marginal subscriber, that's really good for your margins. everything to like about this, except the price of the stock, it is expense it. it's worthy of that, they've won in the streaming space, but i kind of hold my nose a little bit when i look at the valuation, because i wouldn't add here. this is great. everything was great. >> so, you know, it's funny. when you look at it on a chart -- i would like to sell this little pop post earnings. when you look at it on a chart, january through april, stock trough, trough. then you look at april through august, trough, trough. so, it's every four months, you get a bottoming effect, even though the ascent has been in act. it looks like you get a chance
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to buy it cheaper. it's always going to be expensive for karen, for many people, but you have password sharing, ad tier, all of these different things. i think you're going to get a lower price to buy the stock. and i would be selling this right now. >> would you be leaning into this move, guy -- i mean, guy, i know this past quarter, you've been really tuning into cobra kai and emily in paris, tokyo swindlers, just to name a few of the great drivers of engagement they're citing in the shareholder leader. >> yeah, tokyo squidward is my favorite -- >> swindler. >> i totally get what steve's saying, and i know the crack staff in ec can go back to november 2021, when the stoke made an all-time high of 680 or so. look at what today's low was. so, you back and filled back to a prior high and now we're bouncing off of it, and, yes, it is expensive on valuation.
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i got to tell you, look at the ad growth, net ad sales revenue, that thing is up 35% year over year. that's something that steve has talked about for awhile. i'm sort of saying, you know, you stay with it. it is clearly netflix's world, still, and everybody else is playing in it. so, i would actually buy this strength, mel. >> and so, why shouldn't there be such a premium? what are we comparing netflix against? i don't know -- >> they always say sleep. >> sleep. >> youtube. >> right. >> and then why not a 32 times forward pe for this over sleep? dan? i'm exaggerating, but what guy has said in terms of, this is netflix's world and we're only living in it, gets to the point that netflix is the one successful at streaming when all the others, most of the others are falling to the wayside. >> yeah, it's not too different than what some investors are willing to pay for a spotify, too. these two companies are in very unique positions. they are dominating the subscriber growth. the one issue i would say about
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netflix is just maybe a decel in the subscriber growth as they start to look around the globe here. obviously central and south america, south america in particular, is starting to see, you know, a deceleration. so, they really have to make it up in europe, middle east. asia -- i think all of us on the desk, as soon as they did that about-face on the advertising business, obviously, the crackdown on passwords, this is all really high margin stuff. you've seen that are margins start to work higher a little bit. it's a great story. it's a unique story. i guess it's felt unique for 15 years or so, but again, from a competition standpoint you not that, like -- there's not a lot nipping at their heels. as they move into live, i think that's going to be an interesting phase for this company, especially from an advertising standpoint. they create a little bit of a velvet rope situation, sports and the like here. so, a lot of stuff to like going forward. i wouldn't worry about the valuation. people are only going to worry about it when they miss on subscribers and the stock is
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trading down 10% or so. but right now, it's probably just fine. i don't think you buy it here for, you know, the technical reasons that steve mentioned, some of the reasons that guy mentioned and karen's a little worried about, i think that's going to encapsulate a lot of investor opinion. >> they've got the jake paul/mike tyson fight and two nfl games on christmas day. how do you know that? >> it's in the letter, so, i have to -- >> if you have to pick something, i mean, we talked about it before the show, latin america was actually churn, and until they have some content that makes people want to turn it back on -- >> right. >> that was down, though that is a much less valuable customer than the u.s. >> did you see the revenue on the chart that we just put up? so, to dan's point, you have the paid membership kind of rolling over, you have revenue kind of rolling over. so, these are things that happen before the stock price kind of rolls over. so, we've been all sort of hypnotized with stock price not rolling over. i think it's time for it to roll
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over. >> all right. well, we are on this webcast -- >> that was growth rolling over. >> growth. growth. sorry. yes, growth. >> all right. we'll be speaking to rich greenfield later in the show on netflix. meantime, taiwan semi soaring to a fresh high, after a blowout earnings beat. q-3 profit jumping 54%, with revenues surging 36%. the ceo saying that a.i. demand is real, and will continue to grow. the huge move boosting the other chip stocks. nvidia hitting an intraday report. micron, broadcom, and amd f finishing higher, as well. brea streak. dan nathan, number one a.i. doubter here on this show? >> i'm not an a.i. doubter about the technology by -- >> the stock moves. >> a doubter about -- well, no, the pace of spending continues this way relative to what we're hearing from the hyper scalers, which is -- it's microsoft, it's
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go google, and it's amazon here. when those companies report, we're going to get a sense of their spending, right? i don't know. i any there's two different stories on the week. asml, their lack of visibility and they're kind of blaming it on stuff xai and what taiwan semi has. they're going to be the last battle fought with nvidia on this. i think as we go into 2025, expectations are really very high, given what nvidia and taiwan semi are saying, but if you look at the price action, if you look at the forward estimates for the hyper scalers that i just mentioned, they're not accelerating in a meaningful fashion. it's going to come down to what they say as far as spending in my opinion in the next month or so. >> the comments from tsm were pretty convincconvincing. they're going to double capacity by the end of the year of their advanced chip packaging technology capacity, which is needed for nvidia's highest, you know, most advanced a.i. chips. that seems to indicate there's the demand there. >> there is the demand that goes much broader than just the hyper scalers. >> right. >> so, yeah, though -- this,
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clearly, was good, and expectations were really high already, going in. so, that's pretty impressive. of course it bolds well for nvidia. i wonder, though, if it's going to run up into just -- racheting up the expectations prior to. so, it's up on this good news, as it should be, but i don't know by the time it gets to their earnings. >> taiwan is dependent on nvidia and amd to the tune about 15% collectively, between the two names, as far as revenue. when you look at the stock to dan's point, asml, so, there's your non-a.i. chips, and a.i. chips. you're going to have a backlog of a.i. chips. that's where the growth is. that's where taiwan's sweet spot is, and that's where nvidia's sweet spot is, and to a lesser extent amd. when the market starts to fail, nvidia, taiwan semi, amd, will be the first ones to fail. so, this defends on the market
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continuing its ascent. >> so, where do you stand? >> i -- i would be a seller of these. it would be -- >> all of them? >> on all of these. >> you're out of nvidia? >> i'm out of nvidia, but obviously, the last chip to fall is going to be -- there's such a backlog with artificial intelligence chips that you're going to have that demand ongoing, but they still, two-thirds of all stocks trade with the overall market, so, unless you believe this market is going to go to the moon -- >> which you don't. >> which i don't, because -- you need a little healthy pull-back. i'm not saying there's going to be a 20% decline. but there's going to be a short and sweet pull-back and i'd wait for those as your entrance. >> guy, what do you say? >> it's interesting, you know, we talk about, what's today, thursday, tuesday, asml, we had a conversation on the desk and we pointed out that the decline they were seeing was the non-a.i. portion of their business, so, it really wasn't an indictment yet of a.i., but if you start to look out in the future, potentially could be one
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of those first dom knows to fall. taiwan semi, we've had it 100 times, one of the five most important companies in the world, just crossed the trillion dollar market cap, and justifiably so. and we got through those prior double tops of 185. i look at today and say, you know what? given what taiwan semi said, nvidia should have traded a lot better. i'll say this. the move in nvidia since the august 5th low has been staggering. but the fact that we didn't close above that june 20th high of 14 0 and change, at least today, i think it's a little concerning. >> so, again, that outside reversal day, we go back to that day -- >> still in tact. still in tact, melissa lee. >> no, i understand. i remember having that conversation right here on the desk, it's amazing how in tact it has been. but karen -- steve made the call that he's willing to give up whatever upside there is, and i think this is the dilemma that most people have with nvidia, right? you see the stock continuing to go to record highs. i don't want to sell, i don't want to sell, because i'm worried i'm going to miss the
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next -- >> whatever it is. >> ten points. >> whatever it is, so, what do i do? >> how do you weigh that. >> i look to sell out of money calls. so -- you take in some premium, obviously, if there's a big way down then, you know, that premium doesn't do you enough good. but anything sort of flat to up a little is good. and you can continue to -- you don't have to realize any gaines. that's important, and if you are short-term, if you sell calls out at least 30 days, you can keep aging your position to get to long-term. so, for me, a lot of it is tax-driven. >> right. >> and i kind of want to stay in it anyway to see what, you know, how does this all -- >> sure. >> but at some point, you have to start selling some and if it goes through your strike price, then it's going to -- if you just let yourself be a sign, you'll have a smaller position. >> right. >> you don't trade in options. >> i don't. but that would be what you should do. i go off of levels. when you say i'll give up the upside, i give up the upside to
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a certain extent. once it proves itself, i use that old high as my exit strategy, if i'm wrong again, if i pick the top and it continues to climb, i use the old high as my support level. so, if it breaks down through there, i sell the position, if not, i keep accruing it. >> dan, if what you predict comes to fruition, nvidia could be one of the greatest shorts out there. when does that day come? what do you look for? >> well, let's step back to asml. okay? if you have a bookings number that was down 55%, okay, from just quarter over quarter, if you think about that, and they're just saying it's x-a.i., i can't be. you can't have that lack of visibility. so, something doesn't scquare with me on that. okay, so, at some point, maybe it will be this next quarter where nvidia talks about insane demand, but like, the lead times for those chips are going to be pushed out. it's like deceleration -- i don't know. i just think that, again, the capex for the biggest customers,
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40% of nvidia's sales come from microsoft, google, amazon, and meta. at some point, i just think they're going to see a deceleration in their orders and i think there's some air that's going to come out of it. the highs in july to the lows, just recently, a month or so ago, nvidia sold off 35%. so, it's not going to take much. and that was just a market selloff. that was a sentiment thing. that was a vibe thing. at some point, there will be a fundamental reason for these stocks to correct, and it could get cut in half. that's just obvious. if you can sell off on a market selloff 35%, if there's a reason, it's going to get worse. coming up, book your next flight with uber? the ride sharing company reportedly eyeing a deal with exp expedia. that's next. plus, a new platform out of robinhood. the online brokerage firm chasing more active traders and bigger stock trades. details on the new tool and how it can boost their business. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. this is "fast money" with
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pete g. writes, "my tween wants a new phone. how do i not break the bank?" we gotcha, pete. xfinity mobile was designed to save you money and gives you access to wifi speeds up to a gig. so you get high speeds for low prices. better than getting low speeds for high prices. right, bruce? -jealous? yeah, look at that. -honestly. someone get a helmet on this guy. xfinity internet customers, ask how to get an unlimited line free for a year. plus, a free samsung galaxy s24 fe. welcome back to "fast money." shares of uber and expedia on the move today after reports
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that the ride sharing company had explored a takeover bid for the travel booking company. but sources familiar with the matter tefrtelling us there are conversations, that a third party broached the deal and initial exploration was in the earliest of stages. the uber ceo was previously the ceos at expedia and currently sits on the board, so, you can understand why there was that speculation out there. it sort of gets you thinking about, in uber's quest to be that super app, what that next acquisition could be. there was an interesting way of opening, sort of, the realm of possibility. >> yeah, that's not crazy at all. it would seem to fit in so well, just looking at the bwall lance sheets. they both trade expensively, but they could do a stock merger. both balance sheets are in good shape. obviously, the ceo connection is interesting. >> yeah. >> so, i doubt anything hostile would ever happen here. i think it would have to be friendly, but the idea of it is
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sort of intriguing. it could be another leg of growth. >> right. >> i don't think he needs to do it. i don't think he needs to do it. i think -- he's already gotten into train and flights, you know, to a certain extent. it would be an expansive dive into it, but i think he's diversified so much within its own platform, they have every aspect that they truly need. they outperform lyft by a large extent. i think this would be -- i don't want to say wasting money, but i don't think he needs to do this deal. >> it seems like the analyst community are pretty negative on this sort of idea. negative in that they say that an acquisition of expedia would basically drag down growth, because expedia's growth rate is lower, either current or future, than uber's, and uber has stated exp explicitly, dan, they will only use m&a to booth growth. so, this would not boost growth. >> it would boost growth if you
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are able to cross-sell, able to access a new customer, if you are able to leverage the data, if you're able to leverage the gross margin that expedia has. nearly double that of uber at 89% or something. this is a lay-up. this is why expedia isthe e in my zebra trade. i picked a bunch of crap that i thought could get bought out. you want to cesee dara fix this company? of course you do. to me, this is, like, bankers, get me a ring, i'll get this dope for you. >> bankers put this out -- >> did you just say bankers give me a ring? >> give me a ring. but thing about, a.i., think about uber, i need -- or, hey, i need a car to go catch this flight. you could do everything seamlessly, right, guy, in theory? >> i think it makes sense. i'm sort of with dan on this one. i understand what steve is saying, but you know what? it's still relatively an easy -- i would imagine it's some what
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easy to integrate. he's been on the board, so, he probably knows the inner workings pretty well. where there's smoke there's fire type of thing. you look at uber, and they finally have figured it out. and although it's expensive on a trailing basis, on a forward basis, given the eps growth rate, it's still pretty reasonable stock, despite the fact it's had this huge run, so, they report on halloween, mel -- >> boo. >> boo. i think you own it into earnings and you stay with this name on the long side. all right. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. >> going under the hood on robinhood's new platform. has the brokerage firm chases more active traders and more sizable trades. what they're offering to investors, next. plus, cracks in china's housing foundation. how the government's attempt to stabilize the property sector fell short. and what investors need to see to believe in a rebound. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square.
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wealthier, more active investors. the platform will offer advanced charting and analysis tools. the ceo joined cnbc this morning to talk growth at the company and investor optimism. >> we're seeing broad-based opt mitch right now across multiple asset classes. i don't think it's just crypto. and, you know, markets shift up and down. the scenario can change very, very quickly. but right now, when we talk to our traders, many of whom are at this event, they're expressing a lot of optimism. >> so, as you might have noticed, dan and guy are at this robinhood event. dan, i don't know if you are talking to people there, if they have that same optimism in terms of this offering. it's interesting, because it really, you know, signifies and underscores how robinhood is maturing its business. >> 100%. couple things, i used to say the most interesting thing about robinhood was the name and the hair, but that's changed.
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and we talked about it for the last couple years. they've clearly tapped into something. and i will say, much to my chagrin, people come up to me, they're all excited, do you know melissa lee? i say, of course i do. robinhood might look expensive, but they're going to continue to grow with the tools they've built. they're going to tap into a lot of things that sackactually make stock look inexpensive. i will absolutely tell you to stay with this name. >> if you meet guy and guy says he knows me, he will tell you that i'm the meanest person on the planet, which is obviously not true. so, don't believe him on that front. >> he does do that. >> he does do that, all the time. dan, in terms of robinhood, the stock, it seems like they are going after sort of that -- not -- i don't want to see niche, but the trader that would go to interactive broker, a wealthier, active trader. >> it's a prosumprosumer.
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there are moneys of them right now, and a lot of folks are ready to mare marry this tradin platform with the trading capabilities with analytics. and we took a lot at this thing, it's pretty sharp. it feels like something that is really going to be a massive shift for this company. you said it, mel. it's something that this company has been evolving since, you know, some very interesting times, going back to 2020, and 2021, but all of a sudden now, i think they're going to be able to attract a customer that is very well used to these sorts of tools, but in a much simpler sort of fax. when you think of them, they have over 20 million users right now. i think this changes the game. >> so, they're trying to expand their -- their money underassets or their money that's on their trading platform. if you look at the three-year chart, it looks like it's getting to be constructive. if you look at the year to date chart, it looks excellent. the one-year, excellent.
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but a big part of this growth story has been the net interest that they've received, so, from q-2 of 2021, q-2 of 2021 to 22024 has increased 320%. we're in a lower interest rate environment now, how is that going to impact the stock? so, i think they're trying to fill the voids of that absence. >> guy, i'm curious, how is sentiment overall in terms of market direction? going into the election. >> well, there are 40, 50 people hanging around here, they don't want to get in the shot. but there's a lot of enthusiasm around the market. it's not wishful thinking enthusiasm. it's well thought out, sort of looking at valuations, trying to figure out where things are. and these are people that, as dan just said, they're prosumers. they almost got me thinking bullish. not there yet, but they're very optimistic. >> you see what guy just did
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there? he made it, even if there's no crowd, he made you feel -- there's a bunch of people -- >> hold on. all you people, wait -- >> getting swarmed. >> all you people, come back here. i'm not kidding around. look at this, mel, they're all over the place. they're just -- >> okay, we got two. >> look, they're all -- >> okay, all right. >> see? >> all right, you proved your point. >> i'm not making it up. >> hi, everybody. we'll have to bring the show there sometime. all right, coming up, a rough prognosis out of elevance health. the unpresented challenges the insurer is facing and what it will mean for the stock going forward. and the latest on china's housing crisis. why the country's newest property plans failed to impress, and how investors are digesting the news. back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.
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be more challenging due to fuel prices, weaker coal demand, and the recent hurricanes in the southeast. norfolk southern down, as well. wells fargo rising for a tenth straight day, its longest winning streak ever. shares are up more than 17% in that time. shares of elevance health dropping 10% today. the insurance company reporting a beat on revenues, but missing earnings expectations. elevance citing unprecedented challenges in the medicaid business. and shares of intuitive surgical jumping after reporting a beat on the top and bottom line. that stock is up 6%. in terms of elevance, we've been hearing so much about medicare issues, now we're hearing about the medicaid issues, as well, from elevance. >> elevance was really, i mean, i'm surprised it wasn't down more, because this was -- they guided lower, significantly lower, like, you know, $4 a share lower, and, you know, you put a 13 multiple on that, or a little higher, i guess. so, it should have been down a
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lot. that medical loss ratio, we talk about it all the time. this is a business on, you know, tight margins and to have a medical loss ratio come in 2% higher than you thought is -- that's enormous. so, they also had a couple of other issues, they got one of their plans -- their star was lowered, that's a bad thing. >> right. >> it's -- it's important, because you -- they want to have all four stars or higher. that was a bad thing, but -- i think that loss and then talking about the reimbursement from government was not as high as they hoped, they racheted up slower than they hoped and they pay -- it takes awhile to get the money and the severity to the patient is higher. we've seen this now a few times, again and again, but it seems to sort of -- not have levels off. i thought it would have -- >> when do you get out? >> when do i get out? well -- i don't -- yesterday would have been a very good day.
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wish you would have asked me that yesterday. but i think -- i mean, this is -- you know, she knows what she's doing, it's a tough time in the business. i wouldn't get in right now. for a minimum three days, right? >> yeah. >> you got to wait and let this one shake out. we'll see downgrades and -- that was tough. >> all right. policy makers in china putting out new stimulus measures. expanding its white list of real estate projects and increasing lending for unfinished developments. investors seemingly unimpressed. end see eunice yoon has the details. >> reporter: melissa, state media promised what it described as a heavy punch combo out of a briefing today by the housing minister, but that punch failed to land. the top three takeaways from the event are, the government plans to expand financing to complete unfinished residential projects on its white list to $562 billion by the end of the year.
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it will renovate 1 million homes in depressed urban areas, and it declared the sector has bottomed out. the first measure is meant to address a big economic and social problem in china -- many families have already prepurchased apartments that haven't been developed and the government worries about public anger. but similar with other recent announcements, the event didn't include enough specifics to change the fundamental picture to encourage people to buy homes. the hope now is for a larger fiscal stimulus, possibly announced in the coming weeks that could improve overall economic conditions. melissa? >> our eunice yoon in beijing for us. none of the measures seem to actually address the fact that there's just a glut in housing inventory and for the government to declare that the sector has bottomed out is really unconvincing at this point. in terms of the trade, though, guy, what do you see for some of these stocks? >> well, they're not going to be able to fix the real estate. they should know that if they
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don't, they're sort of fooling themselves. but the trade is exactly what tim seymour's been laying out. you had that runup in alibaba, you got up to 123. he was selling calls against it. this back and fill is going to fill a gap that we created on the upside, but i don't -- personally, i don't think the trade is over, so, it's either alibaba at these levels, you start to layer in, or fxi around 28 1/2 and 29, which also fills a gap. because i do think you're going to get more into the end of the year that's going to sort of reaccelerate both the individual names and these etfs, mel. >> you got two toes -- >> three toes now. >> all right. >> and the fourth toe. but i think fourth toe might be full, now you can buy it at better prices. it is intriguing to e, still. i like the declaration that it's over. i agree, that doesn't really mean it's over. but i do think that valuation is compelling and i do believe that this is still significant change, even though it is falling short.
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>> you posed the question a couple of weeks ago, where if the mag seven or nvidia specifically started to rally, does that take away from the alibaba trade. so, you have a confluence of events. you have china stimulus is lackluster or not enough to satisfy the market, and nvidia rally. so, that was the death star for alibaba. but they're going to have to come up with a bazooka. they're going -- they're going to have to come up with a stimulus package, they're not going to come out all at once, but they're sort of pushed now to come out with something that the market can't deny is going to help their economy. i don't know what it is, i don't know when it is, but you're going to be able to trade these names going into year end. coming up, we are watching netflix. shares are near afterhours highs after its latest report. the earnings call just wrapping up. rich greenfield of light shed partners will join us next to lay out what he heard on the call and what he thinks about the streaming giant's qutearr. "fast money" is back in two.
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we always had dogs, they're like my best buddies. yep, had them my whole life. c'mon bo! so we got him and he is a, an absolute joy. daddy's puppy. once we got on the farmer's dog he just attacks it, it's incredible. they're so tuned into you and they have such, such personality. being without a dog, i don't know, can't imagine it. [laughter]
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rich, great to have you with us. first impression of the call, what are the highlights here? >> i mean, this is the fly wheel, right? you literally create lots of content, you drive engagement, you get people so addicted you're able to raise the price, have more revenue that you can then reinvest in more programming. you know, drive more watch final, raise the price you it's -- it's a fly wheel and it's really working. and what's really interesting is what's increasingly obvious is that all of netflix's peers aren't spending enough money on programming and if they have any hopes of staffing in the streaming business, they need to spend a lot more money on producing movies and tv shows or they're going to get left in the dust. >> i don't know if that's going to happen -- i mean, i don't know if they're going to be spending more money, rich. so, extrapolate out what the picture looks like in a year, even, when shareholders get fed up with lackluster streaming results? >> you're asking the right
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question, melissa, and i think it's what every investor should be talking about, because you've seen how reducing content spend is definitely having an impact. it's slowing down the subscriber growth, especially domestically, that you're seeing from, you know, all of the traditional or legacy media companies. they're all having a tough time growing subscribers and you know what's really interesting, melissa, what you asked about the highlights of netflix, one of them was clearly the growth in advertising. 50% of new subscribers, signups this quarter, came onto the advertising supported tier in ad markets. and so, advertising is working, but remember, you can't drive ad revenue if you don't have lots of watch time. if you're not watching, like, you sign up for disney+ -- charter, you know, has disney+ onscriber base, but if you don't activate it and use it there's no advertising to sell. you need watch time. so, it just keeps going back to
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what really is most important to succeed in streaming, is watch time, and the only way you get watch time is having a tremendous amount of content. that's what everyone needs to do, and if they don't, they all need to be rethinking, what is their strategy? >> rich, watch time might be one thing, but the margin improvement is staggering over the last couple of years, and to me, you know, that more than offsets any concern about slowdown in revenue growth or any of those things. speak to that, because that, to me, was the missing piece. >> well, i mean, look. netflix is generating, what, $6.5 billion of free cash flow. you know, you probably remember not too many years ago, i was probably on this, you know, after earnings and we were debating, is this company ever going to make money? this company is making a tremendous amount of money. and it's getting stronger and stronger. and sort of to melissa's point, i think this is what's interesting. if the other companies don't really, you know, start doing a much more aggressive battle, if they don't really compete, if
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they're unwilling to spend more money, that type of scaling of margin and profitability and free cash flow is going to continue scaling, and remember, what did netflix tell you about -- the most important thing investors should hear about '25 is they're not going to show another 600 basis points of margin improvement. they're going to be reinvesting. they're putting their money into more content. wwe starts next year, right, they just did the nfl, the end of this year. like, they are moving further into live content, event content, dabbling in sports. they are putting more money into this business to extend the lead and to meaningfully drive the advertising business, and that is going to just continue to increase their lead. and you start to wonder, like, how does the traditional sector as they get into streaming and try to be in the streaming business, how are they going to acquire the best projects when you look at the relative strength of netflix's balance sheet in that's going to be the
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big challenge for these companies as you look out. >> right. >> rich, it's karen, thank you for being on. i agree, everything looked fantastic. the only sticking point for me is valuation, so, you know, it's been a premium valuation as it should be for a lock time, but at what point do you think it's sort of everything good is priced in? >> i mean, look, i think a lot goes back to, and i keep coming back to melissa's question. if the others aren't really going to compete, you start to extend that lead and you start to reinvest and build stronger and stronger, and, you know, look, that margin profile, the one line in the press release that everyone should be focusing on is, they said, we have a -- you know, despite there's only 100 basis points predicted in the guidance for '25, they said there's a long runway to go on margin improvement over the long-term. so, is this a 35% margin business? maybe more over time? certainly, rpu is going to keep growing, not just from price increases, which, again, a lot of people were betting there
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would be a price increase today or announced shortly. that is still another catalyst as you're talking about valuation. my guess is they raise price at some point over the course of the next three months, because the content slate is one of the best it's ever been, so, there's a big price -- not a big, but certainly a price increase in the u.s. coming soon, which will be another catalyst for the stock. >> all right, rich, thank you. always great to get your take. rich greenfield. a lot of analyst prior to this quarter were saying pricing bier will next year at the latest, dan. they've got "squid game 2" coming up. q-4 is pretty strong slate, as well. >> yeah, i -- listen, i hear everything rich is saying, and he's been so right on the stock for so long, so, if they're already talking down margins into 2025, and they're going to basically put through this price increase that drops right down to the margin, like, that's great news, okay? but at some point, i just think that if you see a deceleration in subscriber growth, there could be, like, a bit of a perfect storm for a little bit
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where you see the stock sell off 10, 15, maybe 20%, if we start to see some weaker economic data or the like. so, again, everybody's counting every competitor out right now, if there was ever some competition that started nipping on their heels, that could be some of the situation that would cause the stock to go lower. coming up, the kicks on an online sneaker marketplace. the ceo of stock x will join us next to lay out the heart and sole of that space. more "fast money" in two. . or a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round out yours.
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let's power on! power on with the leader in connectivity. stay connected with comcast business internet and wifi back-up or get started for $49.99 a month. plus ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. call today! welcome back to "fast money." stock x is an online marketplace where consumers can buy and sell sneakers, accessories, and collectibles. the company recently announced a partnership with walmart and the detroit pistons. the ceo just finished a panel at the company's hood summit in miami. he joins us now. scott, welcome to the show. >> it's great to be back on. >> it's interesting that you're at that conference and i'm curious if there's a lot of overlap between traders of stocks and perhaps people who trade on your platform. >> yeah, i mean, this is actually a great overlap, because we both serve a very similar customer base, next generation consumer, think about
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tradeable assets, not only just equities, futures, options, but as we think about it, consumer products. so, the overlap here today has been really energizing for me. >> i want to focus on sneakers for now, i know you sell all sorts of collectibles and a accessories, but what caught my eye was a report you issued in august, and it looked like you knew it was, in the numbers, that the demand for nike was just not there anymore. and i'm wondering how early you started seeing that coming and what you think is problem at nike, as somebody who just looks at that marketplace and looks at what consumers want. >> so, the resell market essentially just represents current supply and demand in the marketplace. and i think nike is one example of a shift in market preferences for consumers, driven by their strategy side has been frequent restocks, a lot of inventory, and oversaturation of the market. on the other side of that,
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you've seen the performance and outperformance of publicly traded stocks like adidas and deckers that have all actually been outperforming taking market share from one of the biggest brands in the world. >> are we ever going to look back, because in the nike conversation, in terms of nike's woes, we always talk about the competition that nike is facing, with on and hoka. is there demand for that? are we ever going to look back, say, those hokas, i found those on stock x. >> yeah, i mean, actually, hoka, new balance, on, these have all been some of the fastest growing brands and traded products on the resell marketplace. but i will still say that nike has incredible strengths with one of the biggest brands, doing really well in performance running, doing really well in performance basketball, and i'm not going to bet against them in the long-term. >> okay. fair enough. in terms of how many trades are -- 50 million plus trades on your platform, which is a
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staggering number. how does that get impacted by what's going on more broadly in the economy, if at all, or in the stock market, for that matter? >> so, you know, we're in a four-year inflationary cycle, we've had interest rates, we've had consumers that have been hit hard. we're obviously a consumer discretionary platform, and so, we see all of those macro headwinds that have hit consumers the last couple of years, but i think actually, as we're turning the corner on interest rates, turning the corner on inflation, get past the presidential election, i'm more bullish on consumers, and consumer discretionary, than certainly we've experienced the last couple of years. >> all right, scott, great to speak with you. thank you for your time. >> thanks so much. up next, final trades. confusion about the cost of care and how to afford it. it's time to simplify. waystar's technology is the way to make healthcare payments more human.
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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. dan? >> yeah, guy got sick of me, but i think he agrees with me, final trade, expedia, where there's smoke, there's fire. >> karen? >> yes, all this was great in netflix, but i would sell some upside calls. analyst upgrades tomorrow. >> steve? >> uber's been a great trader. i bought it in the low to mid 70s, sold it mid 80s, got lucky on this one. but i think i'm going to round trip that once again. >> thank you for watchi ing "fa money." see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. don't go anywhere. areywi j cmeimrar stts right now. right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it.
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