taken a stake in kenvue. it is monday, october 21st, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. >> announcer: this cnbc program it's monday morning and we are watching the u.s. equity futures. dow futures off 56 points. s&p futures are down 11. the nasdaq off by 66. it does come after the dow and s s&p closed at record highs for the year. that is the 47th for the s&p. you are talking six straight weeks of gains for the major

averages. you will see that the dow up by 2.25%. it's the best performer. the s&p is up 1.2%. treasury yields for the 20 and 30-year were the highest since july on friday. this morning, they moved higher with the ten-year at 4.12. the two-year is basically looking at 4%. 3.99. overnight, china's central bank out with lending rates up 25%. that move had been signalled at a forum on friday where the central bank governor said the reserve requirement ratio of the banks could be lowered by .25% by the end of the year if necessary on that. they cut the benchmark lending rate by 25%. that is a big move. we'll continue to watch and see what happens with it. you can check out china stocks this morning. higher across the board.

let's get to phil lebeau this morning because boeing and machinist union as joe mentioned at the top the contract proposal to end the strike. a vote is set for wednesday. our own phil lebeau has more on the story that has been taking place over the weekend. phil. >> andrew, this deal was worked on the last week with the acting labor secretary. work with boeing and the machinist union. here is the offer on the table that the rank-and-file will be voting on wednesday. it is a substantial increase k compared to the one rejected a month ago. 35% raise over four years. the previous was 25%. $7,000 ratification bonus. adding a one-time $5,000 depoise it in every worker 401(k). the annual bonus. the annual bonus was on the table. the bonus will be at least 4%.

one important note for the rank-and-file pushing for the pension, it is not part of the deal. boeing and the union, as part of the offer, would not restore the pension. remember, 96% of the machinists rejected the last contract when they voted in september. as for the machinist union leadership which recommended the last deal, they're abstaining from recommending or telling people it's not that great of a deal. don't vote for it. putting it on the table for the rank-and-file. this strike is costing boeing at least $1 billion a month by one estimate. you look at free cash flow. it's more than $1.3 billion as far as an impact there. we'll get a little better clarity in terms of the exact impact, the liquidity at boeing and where things stand financially when the company reports its q3 results before the bell on wednesday morning. take a look at shares of boeing.

it's reasonable to assume the market will like the tentative deal on the contract which is why pre-market is showing a little bit nudge higher of 4%. again, guys, we'll find out the results wednesday not only for the third quarter, but also for this strike vote which will take place during the day. some time late wednesday night we'll get the results. >> phil, thank you for that. i appreciate it. activist investor starboard taking a stake in kenvue. it was spun off from johnson & johnson last year. you know the company. makes tylenol, list terine, band-aid and on and on. the wall street journal says starboard ceo will outline what the firm's thesis is for kenvue at the investor summit in new

york tomorrow. elliott investment management and southwest airlines have been discussing a settlement to give the activist investor significant representation on the board. the talks are predicated on the deal that gives elliott less control. elliott is seeking to oust bob jordan. if you look year to date, the stock is up 6.3%. cigna received efforts to combine with humana after merger talks fell apart last year according to bloomberg. the companies have held discussions about a potential deal. cigna looking to close the sale of the medicare advantage deal. it will remove the overlap to draw scrutiny from anti-trust regulators. having talked to people involved in the possible transaction is

what would happen over a trump administration would allow something like this or a harris administration would allow something like this. i'm not sure either administration would allow. >> the business round table has a new meaning. when we come back, a busy week of earnings ahead. we will look at the squawk planner ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. businesses can't afford to not look at the value of the disabled human experience. when we embed philosophy into business, businesses are better for it. er drives revenue. the's a return on investment that transcends much farther than one boardroom table.

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airlines and honeywell on friday. joining us now is sylvia jablonski. sylvia, what do you think? we're into earning season and the numbers have been, for the most part, pretty strong. >> good morning, becky. they sure have been. 14% of the s&p reported and 49% are beating expectations. that's a solid start to earnings season. i think the bar has also come down for some of the s&p 500 companies. in july, we were talking 6% to 7% year over year growth. now we are looking at the high 4 to low 5 percentage. we are getting it for the most part. banks had a good showing. this gives us a good feeling of how the market will end for the rest of the year. we had the tailwind that we were hoping for. >> the sa&p for the year is doig

pheno phenomenonally well. goldman sachs has a note out today suggesting the s&p gains for the year may be coming to an end. they suggest we should be looking for gains of around 3% versus 13% over the last decade with 11% over the longer term. what do you think about that? >> i think it depends what happens going forward and a couple of factors play into that. first, valuations are high, but corporate earnings are strong. earnings and profits are strong and growing. they are starting to feel justified valuations at this stage as long as they don't become too lofty on average. i also think the top mag seven names have been the performer for the last decade and you will see the broadening out in the market with the ex-mag. that could drive the s&p. if you look at the utilities

like constellation, the sector is 29% versus the 21% on the s&p. those names are up triple digits. i think you will have that a.i. play kind of filter down into different sectors and drive the index forward because of a.i. >> will the mag seven continue their gains or you talk about broadening out. does that mean you think those stocks will actually slow down? >> i think the stocks will slowdown in terms of the velocity or momentum or earnings and profit growth. they had stellar performance and continued to deliver. i think you still buy the names on the dip, but i think the leaders of the pack will diversify a bit. no way bearish on semiconductor. they are running innovation for everything we're talking about to expand and grow the economy. i do think the broadening out and hyperbolic returns with the

vistra or constellation energy, they are looking stronger than nvidia. who would have thought? i think i'm still bullish on tech and semi. >> the other thing is maybe the gains would slow down because investors are looking to alternative places. crypto is one people were talking about, too. what are your thoughts of crypto? >> i'm a holder of crypto and buyer of the dip. if you look back, as crypto par strategies, you know, it is an a.i. company that has billions of dollars of exposure of crypto on the balance sheet. i would rather have exposure to their billions than the amount of crypto i can buy on my own. i do think it is something that

institutions are looking to allocate to the portfolios. we have seen the future of crypto playing out now. i think allocations will go there and it is a strong asset class. >> sylvia, thank you. >> thank you. coming up, another round of a.i. fundraising. it could see the value of one company's funding sky rocket. we will tell you which company and how much it is for. tomorrow, don't miss the interview with paul tudor jones. his views on the market and economy and the politics and election and so much more. all that ahead of robinhood investor conference which is taking place in new york city. it's torw omroat 8:30 a.m. eastern time. "squawk box" coming right back. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so, my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out >> announcer: squawk planner is

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welcome back to "squawk box." perplexity has begun fundraising talks which could double the valuation to $8 billion. the investors are looking to raise $500 million in the new funding round. perplexity conducted three funding rounds in the last year. it has grown to $3 billion by the summer. perplexity was founded two years ago and funding by jeff bezos and stanley druckenmiller which earns money by selling sub

sks subscriptions to the customer base and beginning to sell advertising. you use perplexity? >> that's the first one i tried. i'm not like you. i haven't tried every single one. you have favorites? >> perplexity, you wouldn't write anything. >> it is better than google and you have to collate everything. if you say i need a hotel near blah, blah, blah, it will do all of the, you know, all of the se search. i don't use it for much. have you used a.i. already today? >> today? no. googled today. >> which one is your favorite,

an andrew? >> i still think google for most things is better because i like the choice and i like to figure it out myself. >> you can't ask a specific question? >> you can actually. >> in a round about way. >> i've actually noticed some dpoob google stuff is pretty good. if you look at the overview at the top. >> overview. yeah. okay. >> not for you? >> no, i just -- >> if you are going to write, chatgpt or anthropic. >> you have to do the paid version. >> when would you use lama? the flowing robes? big hitter. >> when i'm on instagram. >> when you're on instagram? >> when i'm locked in on instagram. when i'm doom scrolling on

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box." we're live from nasdaq market site in times square. dow down 60 points. the s&p down 10. new overnight, the israel military launched strikes on the

banks in lebanon that the u.s. and israel have links to hezbollah. the bank which is central to the functioning. those strikes took place on sunday evening when the bank branches were most likely empty. this is a bank cited by the u.s. in the past for involvement with hezbollah. and cuba's election grid crashes again. it first crashed midday on friday after the island's la largest power plant shutdown. the blackouts sparked protests which were dispersed by security forces. >> it's the whole island. >> yup. >> it makes me sad. it's so much potential for an island that close to the united

states and what it could have been, which it isn't. coming up, elon musk giving away $1 b$1 million a day for t who sign his position. we will have the latest from axios next. follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app and listen anytime. we'll be right back. when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset. so how do you invest in gold?

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berkshire hathaway is increasing its stake in sirius xm. the conglomerate holds 10 million shares. that is 32% of the company stock. that makes it berkshire's 15th largest position. the stock is down 15% year to date. this morning, up 3.1%. >> can you explain to me why i pay for sirius in four cars

still? >> i do the same. >> are you a howard listener? >> no. i'd rather stick needles this my ears. >> howard stern is actually a very good interviewer. i listen to news on the way in. >> maybe you are listening to cnbc? that would be a reason that you subscribe. >> that's what i listen to. >> do i have to say i am? >> you should right about now. >> he offered you that moment. >> this would be a good moment. good moment. >> do i have to tell the truth? >> do you not. >> okay. yes, i'm listening. listening to cnbc all the time. >> good. >> i'm listening to i don't know, outlaw nation and bbc. i listen -- >> a couple of country stations. >> alt nation. i won't cut my cord.

it's like a have a cable cord. all of the things you know about. spotify. >> yacht rock. >> no. no. not. outlaw country. >> i love outlaw country. >> spotify. what are all those things? why don't i do that? >> i bet you subscribe to spotify? >> i don't know how it works. >> do you have apple music? >> oh, yeah. >> do you pay for apple music? >> i must. >> there is a good question. >> for my phone, i'm listening on the way in. in my car, boop. >> you can get it on your phone and the phone can sync to your car. >> i know that. i've done. that i don't want to think. >> it's the news channels. you can't get that on music. >> except for cnbc. i listen to any.

eli lilly -- eli lilly is suing -- you are always weird about that. only in context of me which is interesting. >> the whole thing. myself. i do. >> there, i'm with you. eli lilly is suing three medical spas and online stores for selling copycat weight loss drugs. the vendors in question sold products claiming to contain zepatide and dissolvable tablet. zepatide is the main ingredient in eli lilly's zepbound. how many words can you create? >> roll it back. i have to look at it. >> don't do that. more viewer problems for andrew. when we come back, mike allen will join us including the

musk's $1 million per day give away for voters. and chmu more on the tentative deal to end the strike at boeing. questions whether the union will actually vote for this or not. "squawk box" will be right back. i doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.

welcome back to "squawk box." over the weekend, boeing and the machinists union reached a tentative deal. joining us with more about the boeing strike and where in the world it relates to going back to the office is the vice chairman of korn ferry ceo.

>> good morning. >> when you look at the labor deal and the strike, the bigger question is what we're seeing in terms of pricing power that labor has over these companies or not -- i'm curious where you think the power now lies and how that's going to feed into the system more broadly. >> sure, when you think about white collar work force, we know the labor and skilled shortage. that puts the power with labor. the point is the power is still now resides with workers. interestingly, since 1965, current data is labor union acceptance among the american people is high. you have support from the nation for unions and, by the way, you have an interesting demographic, right? the labor unions today are millennials and generation xers

making up the work force. less than boomers. >> more willing to strike? >> more willing to strike and able to strike. you have lots that's happened post-pandemic and low guysuys logistics with the healthcare and all that builds. >> they have been out 39 days on strike. is there a point where we are not getting checks coming in and the union coffers cover so much of the pay. is that an issue with pressure? >> important issue. the unions have strike relief fund capabilities. >> not their full pay. >> correct. they have the optionality of temp work. >> uber?

>> or a warehouse. >> what percentage of americans are unionized? >> that's a tough one. >> i still think it's a small number. >> certainly less than 50%. >> i think it might be less than 20%. >> sure. because so much are our labor is deployed in the small business. >> if labor was such a powerful force in america, you actually would think it would become a powerful force. >> 10%. >> that's what i was thinking. a more powerful force in politics. depending how you read the popo polls, it is not a powerful force with the labor and unions appears to be losing or in a heated battle here. >> sure. there's a disconnect there as well. i think what labor management has found is what they recommend to their members isn't necessarily how the members vote.

the block isn't as controlled as one think as they say let's support this candidate. >> how close do you think you are to seeing more labor movements or union movements among white collar workers? >> wow. honestly, flipping to the next topic and return to work. >> that's where i was going with this. >> i think there will be more talk than action. it is certainly something to be brought up. it is hard to get a collective bargaining agreement for white collar jobs. collar jobs are no boxed as blue collar. they are more easily to put into a grouping. >> a nice segue to the issue of return to work effort by amazon and other companies that are now following amazon or some that were leading amazon. where are you on both the movement in terms of what

management is trying to do, but also where are you to the extent you believe this behavior science debate with people like adam grant and others have found that a hybrid work environment creates more productivity? >> if this was a prizefight and that's what i've been explaining, we're in the seventh round of the return to work. >> seventh round? >> nothing happens quickly. the pandemic gave people the luxury of working from home. that doesn't get settled in 60 months. the fact of the matter, korn ferry work force study found 60% of employees will stay in a job they hate. >> you don't have to pay them as much either? >> potentially. i don't know why they hate it. typically, it's not great leadership. that's another topic.

return to office gets a lot of noise because it's the thing that people want to spout about because it's sort of something that people see that employees don't want to do so it makes for good news. it is not as prolific as one might think. >> what would you advise a ceo off ma or management on this topic? do we not need as much people? can we get more working from home? when you start to put into that equation the cost of commute and lunch? how should all of the variables put in the box and manage it? you are not in the return to office cacamp? >> labor is the free market. if you are a return to office company five days a week ourks

adam smith is going to bring you workers over a period of time that want to work in an office. by the way, 20% of all workers or so would prefer five days a week in an office. >> only 20%? >> 20%, 25%. the same 20 to 25 on the other side would rather stay home and work remotely all the time. guess what ? if i'm an employer, i'm giving up a portion to recruit from. hybrid is where it makes sense. how much and how you do it -- >> let me ask you a different question. you are taking into consideration the labor market which is your business. where do you land on the productivity argument? >> the data says productivity increased significantly with remote work and flattened. i think it was two or three days out of the office gave you increased productivity. day four and day five didn't increase any more. the question is how do you measure it? we all think we can measure it.

>> we talked about the dismal science of economics. do you believe the science of behavior science? >> 4% unemployment market. it's a labor market. you get back up to 7% or 8%, people are glad to come in five days a week. they can call the shots. >> sure. if you get to 7%. >> hopefully that never happens. those were numbers that were not atypical for 5% or 6%. workers have a lot of leverage at this point. these are the best of times for making these crazy demands. i like what you said. people prefer the flexibility. yeah. if i could stay home and say i'm working, i'd prefer that, too. i would like that job. >> sure. sure. that's total common sense. that's why 60 plus, 70% are inclined to want hybrid or flex. >> can i say this is what working moms have been doing forever. moms who work out of the home, too. they have taken lesser pay, some

of the most efficient workers on the planet because they get their work done and not there to socialize. they do what they can and go back. yes, they have been working and enjoying flex time to take care of their families and taking lower pay for it. this is what working moms have been doing for decades and decades. >> you are providing an example of it has worked. >> they have gotten lesser pay. the most efficient workers and they have gotten hosed for it because they are asking for flexibility. >> because pay is a free market activity -- >> now just everybody wants it. >> you are arguing everybody wants it and can you pay them less. that's the other question. >> they have been doing that to working moms for years and years. >> will people take the flexibility? the people love their flexibility and the question is can you either pay them lessor frankly not pay them more. we're not giving you raises because you get the flexibility. then when that part of the equation is put to the worker,

what do they say? >> going back to the work force 2024 study, flexibility and wages in terms of the compelling driver for why you take a job or leave a job is almost equal according to data we have. flex is important. flex is a form of pay. it's a form of basically benefit. >> it's part of your compensation package. >> absolutely. >> it sucks. >> i'm willing to pay my wage to have the flexibility as opposed to the employer reducing my pay. it's semantic. that's the reality. >> alan, thank you for come income this morning. >> thank you. coming up, elon musk handing out $1 million checks. mike allen is going to join us next.

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billionaire elon musk says he plans to award $1 million a day to a randomly chosen voter who will sign his petition, pledging to uphold the rights to free speech and bear arms. he made the announcement at a rally on saturday night in harrisburg, pennsylvania, and gay the first check to an audience member. musk's america pac says the winner will be drawn from pennsylvania voters until today and open to participants in other swing states through november 5th. election law specialists are divided whether this is legal. it's a federal crime to pay people with the intention of inducing or rewarding them to cast a vote or to get registered. joining us now on this weekend's political headlines, mike allen, is the co-founder of axios.

we all want people to vote. i guess, do you know how legal scholars are viewing this, mike? >> yeah, good morning. 15 days out. election day two weeks from tomorrow. so, a million dollars a day, that would bring elon musk very close to $100 million that he's put into the republican effort through his america pac. and yeah, legal scholars say this gets super close. it's not literally buying a vote or registration, but it's close enough that the vice presidential also ran pennsylvania governor josh shapiro says it's very concerning and the state will look at it. joe, i can tell you, republicans see musk as a very powerful force for them. so, the reality what we're hearing behind the scenes and they could both be wrong, but it ask a fact, that republicans feel like they have momentum, democrats feel like everything

is frozen. and part of this is because, you know, we've lived through these elections before. usually people are wrong and what they're seeing isn't real, but they feel like the race is moving this way or that way in this state or that state. but political junkies are plugged in to the ekg. there's none of that movement. this time the states that matter are all frozen. the people who are going to decide it, haven't decided to vote. so there's no way we can decide how they're going to vote. and so, it's just stalled, but republicans feel like they are surfing away. musk is a big reason. here's why, musk is big with the young men and republicans think this could be young men. democrats are counting on suburban women. and joe, an important twist is that these young men don't just see musk as a celebrity. vice president harris has lots

more celebrities, oprah, taylor swift, you name it. but they see him as a successful entrepreneur, that makes a big difference. >> he's definitely an asset, you would think. mark penn, i don't know what mark penn is anymore. obviously a big adviser to bill and hillary clinton. but he seems sometimes -- yeah, i think he's pretty honest about things. i guess that shouldn't be like a selling point. but he has a piece today in "the wall street journal" that says maybe trump has some momentum now, has the edge, but it's still close and don't count harris out. he says, just on immigration, inflation and crime that trump is ahead, but just on whether you like her or not, she increase herd face-tvorable rat from 38 to 39%. another major factor, mike, this is funny, ms. harris' favor is

the media spin. she viciously attacks trump. the headline is harris sharpens her attack on trump. mr. trump goes after her and he's escalating his threats to political opponents. so, i don't know. it's 15 days. people are dug in at this point, mike. who is going to change their mind? i think vice president harris is going to do another interview, i think, with hallie jackson at this point. >> yeah. she'll be on nbc's air tomorrow doing an interview at the vice president's residence. it will be campaigning again with liz cheney. and here is an important part of between the lines of what mark penn is saying. the harris campaign has admitted their research continues to show voters feel like they don't really know vice president harris. partly because of this compressed campaign. but they say that the more

voters see her, the more they like her. and so now we're hearing -- having a test of that. one more thing on musk that will interest your viewers. there's a great story up on axios but zach basou about make the gullible. making the point that in this election cycle, journalists, billionaires, entrepreneurs, lots of people who should know better are falling for junk online. and one of these is elon musk, who has -- is consistently tweeting, retweeting, xing, rexing claims about voter fraud that just aren't born out. there's analyses that claim these are getting billions of views. why it matters for your viewer. the megatrends are people don't believe traditional news so their paying more attention to what they see online. media illiteracy. people don't pay enough

attention to the source of what they're seeing. it's on x. it must be -- >> michael -- >> mark penn says that, too. mainstream media continues to do its part to earn the complete distrust with the electorate with its lowest recorded trust ratings ever in the gallup poll. >> mike, so let me ask you about that, thousand. jd vance said two weeks ago one of the reasons he would not certified the election, i don't know if you remember this, was this idea that he believed that technology, social media, and the like and other things were misinforming the public. that was actually one of his arguments about all of this. and i ask sort of again in this context of traditional media or legacy media and this idea of truth or lack of truth or lack of people believing it, how this changes the dynamic if one of the people who owns one of these

companies is doing this? the other big question i have is in the old media world, there was always this idea of trying to provide fair time to both candidates, right? like an fcc-regulated television network kind of thing, right? how that works in this social media landscape and how it really works if you have an owner that is demonstrably outspoken about one candidate over another. >> well, here is, andrew, where you have to take individual responsibility. that is if you just take what you're served f you just take your for you, which ever platform it's on, you are going to get an echo chamber or one side. but you have to pay attention to outlets, including the ones that you work for, including axios, that are devoted to finding the closest approximation to the truth. axios takes a clinical approach

to the news, clear eyed, connected to all sides. and if you're a viewer of this show, you need to demand that because this america the gullible is a big problem. and it's understandable if you're just dipping in to social news. but the problem is that people are falling for this who should know better. and andrew, one more thing about the legacy media, talking about how democrats putting their chips on suburban women, republicans trying to move young men, who would have thought, andrew, that your newspaper, "the new york times" on the front page would be talking about the bro vote, but that's where we are. >> yep. that is where we are. >> 15 days, october surprises? i don't know. 15 days. there's -- what would move the needle? we don't know what we don't know. that's the problem, mike. >> yeah, no.

it could be international most likely, fire-up in the war. one quick headline for the weekend andrew mentioned, jd vance, who started with a real popularity deficit as the old quotes from him surfaced, very interesting polling in the last couple of days, jd vance has closed that favorability gap. he and his democratic counterpart, tim walz, basically in the same place, favorability. i asked his campaign why that is? they say it was all about the debate that as long as he -- people were seeing the media caricature of him, he was going to be unpopular. now that they've seen more of him -- and credit to him, he again and again has taken questions, has gone into hostile interview situations, basically is -- come at me. looking at the polling that's worked for him. >> mike, is that coming from the

base, or do you think he's pulling people from the other side? >> yeah. if you look at the way the numbers have moved, it's across the board. the numbers have moved notably in a race where very little is moving measurably. >> all right. very good, mike. mike allen, from axios. and a programming note, mark cuban will join us at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. he's been campaigning for harris? he's been campaigning for vice president harris. and he'll be on again today at 8:30. just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. today's top stories on this monday morning, activist investor star board now taking a sizable stake in kenvue, the consumer products giant that was spun off from j&j last year, kenvue makes a lot of brand

names you know, benadryl, tylenol, starboard wants kenvue to make changes to try to boost its price. elliott has been discussing ale settlement. the talks are predicated on a deal that would give elliott less than full board control, however. and perplexity ai, startup backed by amazon founder jeff bezos is now reportedly in talks to raise new funding that could value that company at $8 billion or more. perplexity search tools let people get answers to sources and citations. the futures this morning, actually we have taken a turn for the worse. dow losses have doubled at this point. down by about 120 versus down 60 just about an hour ago. s&p futures are down by about 20 points. the nasdaq off by about 115. frank holland has a look at this

morning's premarket movers. what's the problem with the futures this morning? what's causing it, frank? >> good morning. we have seen them slip all morning long. we seen them turn red. not really clear what the cause of that is. big downside move when it comes to the dow specially. some of the stocks moving in the pre-market. shares of spirit airlines. off of their highs of earlier today. but as you can see the right here, still up over 24% in the pre-market this morning. after the company received a debt refinancing extension just hours before the deadline late last week. this struggling budget airline receiving a boost after a scrap merge we are jetblue, deferring all aircraft deliveries this year. the stock is still down just about 90% so far year to date. we also want to look at tesla down, also down in the premarket. shares down just 1% ahead of its wednesday earnings report. analysts expecting the ev maker's earnings to fall more than 10%. the stock has been up and down.

shares are down about 9% since the robo taxi event. year to date down about 12%. we'll round things off with u.p.s. downgrade from barclays, two under way from equal weight. shares are down nearly 2%. analysts are citing near-term pressures and also weaker policy demand as we go into the critical holiday season and long-term pressures due to margin challenges and competition from amazon and rival fedex. price target is unchanged. it's at 1:20, 10% drop from where the stock is trading at right now. becky, back over to you. >> all right. frank, thank you. coming up, we'll head to a key battleground state for an issue that matters most for voters and economy. later, two former council of economic advisers shares, kevin hassett and jason furman. we're coming right back. ♪

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that's happened again and again and again. that's the characteristics of a melt-up. and it's being met with a lot of skepticism. so maybe the ingroedients are right. >> i think when you look at the performance of the market, the best way to think about a melt-up is what's the valuation multiple doing relative to earnings. and the valuation multiple has had quite a run. it's up almost 50% since the beginning of this bull market. earnings have also been improving. the question is this a pe-led melt-up or earnings led melt-up. p-e would be reminiscent of late 1990s. earnings led would be more sustainable. i think at this point i'm pleased with what's going on in the earnings side. i think earnings will be good in the third quarter. but the valuation is definitely stretched. it's not as bad as the melt-up in the late 1990s, but it's getting there.

>> so a melt-up, if we're already in it, maybe we're partially through it, but since the election is in only 15 days, i would imagine that any melt-up would have to span -- just go right through the election and right into maybe 2025. does it matter to you how the -- so the -- like so many thicks, ma things, maybe the election is just another one of those data points that may or may not matter much to what the market does as far as the big picture? >> yeah. i hope that's the case. but this is probably going to be a very, very close race and maybe a bitterly contested one. and i don't know that that would be a good backdrop for a melt-up. the market might have some second thoughts about that. the other possibility, of course, a democratic or republican sweep in which case the market will have to be very concerned about desits being even wider and possible

inflationary consequences. in fact, the stock market is ignoring what's going on in the bond market. since the fed hoered the feds fund raid by 50 bases point, guess what the bond yield has gone up by almost 50 bases points. so the bond market is signaling that bond investors are starting to stir. they're not mparticularly happy with what the fed did. it's increasingly clear they might have overreacted with the 50 basis point cut and stimulated an economy that doesn't really need stimulating. >> so what's the thesis for earnings growth continuing to be solid and above trend. does that include -- >> are you talking global? are you talking china? are you talking europe recovering or everything here in the united states. >> everything here in the united states is basically the story. i'm not that convinced that

china is going to be able to stimulate its way out of a historic bursting of a real estate bubble. and europe still has lots of herb shoes, like competition from china. the german auto industry is getting really clocked by what's going on with china's exports with electric vehicles. i think the u.s. continues to surprise to the upside. the labor market, at least in the status fear looks pretty good. if you don't like the latest data wait for the next batch and maybe there will be a revision. but i like the latest data. it looks pretty strong. the real gdp is tracking at over 3% for the third quarter. there has been no landing. there hasn't even been a soft landing quite honestly. and as a result of that, i think earnings will be quite good and part of the story is the economy -- the other part is product ift and profit margin making a comeback. so the earnings side is pretty

good. look, my melt-up concerns i try to convey my concerns by providing subjective probabilities. when the fed lowered the feds fund rate by 50 basis points i raised the subjective probability by 20% to 30%. roaring 2020s scenario. and then the rest of the 20% is troubled geopolitical problems and maybe even domestic political problems. >> ed, even though i said the election doesn't matter, so what do you think could impact earnings either positively or negatively? on the one side, you have the possibility of more tariffs. you've got more than a few tax cuts on the 2017 would be extended. we heard the salt cap might come off. on the other hand, if it was -- if the democrats were to win,

you could conceivably have corporate rates go up, 28%. you could have capital gains rates increased. you could have quite a bit of spending on social programs. there's a lot of different things we're talking about. >> a lot of different things. >> which would be more of a threat to your strong earnings case? >> i think you've covered it pretty well, joe. all of the above. i'm rooting for gridlock. you know, our founders came up with this system called checks and balances. on wall street we call it gridlock. and i hope that all the extreme policy proposals that both trump and harris have made just run into gridlock. some are extreme on the tariff side and the tax side for the corporations from harris. and so, i think the market ignored politics. i think rightly so. but i think it may be harder to ignore politics once we see what

the results are. if the results are gridlocked, then i think melt-up becomes more possible because then there's some of the extreme populous policies. both politicians are promising their bases everything they could possibly wish for. but, i'm wishing that the political system gridlocks on them. >> it's scary because we kind of have to hope that the entire world realizes that there are certain very negative outcomes whether it's a much wider conflict the middle east or even in china, russia, ukraine, all these things. all right, ed. thank you. >> thank you. all right. still to come this morning, we are kicking off the your money, your vote road trip in erie, pennsylvania. brian sullivan is there and will lay out the issues that could swing te ithvorsn e battleground state. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box." this week cnbc is hitting the economic and money issues, the three critical counties to the election. the road trip kicking off in

erie county, pennsylvania. that's where we find brian sullivan. brian, why erie? >> why not to quote "animal house." i'm kidding. this may be the most important county in the most important state, andrew. erie county is amazing, tucked apart against lake er-ie. erie county has gone for every president since 1980. they swung huge back to trump in 2016 and then did another u-turn and went for biden in 2020. and the margins are raizor thin. the margin of victory in the votes was 1500 in 2020 and 2000 in 2016. it's literally a couple of people in this town, in this county that may help decide the entire state of pennsylvania. and if you win pennsylvania, it's not a guarantee, as you know.

but the math certainly is helpful if you can pick up pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes. so let's talk about where we are, right? we'll separate the politics, focus more on the people and the economics. erie obviously is a city that's been in transition for a while. manufacturing, little more educational, little more healthcare now. let's take a look. so the unemployment rate pre-covid, december 2019, was 4.5%. covid spike, it's come back down. now it's at 4.3%. a slight improvement in the jobs situation there. you've got a median household income about $60,100 as well. we talked about this transition idea, guys, not the energy transition, bigger, multidecade transition from manufacturing to more knowledge based and small business economies. in fact, yesterday we met with a small business owner. it's erie woodworks. and he sort of explained to us how he sees the transition of

this swing town. >> we had paper mills. we've had all kinds of those typical large industry rust belt town things. and now it's really had to pivot. small businesses are coming in, filling up all the empty warehouses. new restaurants. tech businesses. anything that we can sort of innovate in a new economy -- >> reporter: yeah. so we've gone, guys from big factories. still are some. lab tech making loco motives about a mile that way. but there's also a huge educational presence. you've got hospitals, some people call it eds to meds. it is a city and county in transition, but one that will also potentially transition the white house. >> what is -- i mean, i don't know if you've done any man on the street interviews there yet, brian, and when you got into

town. but do you have a sense of what -- which way this place is leaning? and i don't know, maybe if elon musk's petition mans are having an impact? >> all right. so, we got in about 10:30 yesterday morning. i've been here before. i spent the weekend by the way in wisconsin. yeah, we didn't get a whole lot of time. we talked to armando. randomly walked in. you know me. most don't want to go on camera. you have to understand it's highly sensitive, 15 days. all right. so what did i see? we drove around. my producer and i drove around, block by block. and i would say that in the city of erie, it's the county and then you have the city. in the city of erie, i would say it was 7 to 1 harris to trump signs just on a number of different blocks, 20 or so we drove down. but if you go out of the city, driving into the city of erie, it's 7 to 1 trump to harris.

it's the differentiation city. we talked to a plumber, head of the local union, great guy, we're a union democrat. we're a jobs democrat. so i think the economy and inflation and immigration will be critical. erie today, we'll go all around the town. six hours we'll drive from here, roll through ohio, maybe stop in cedar fair, ride a roller coaster and end up in what is arguably the most important county in michigan, another key state and that is kent county, with the county seat of grand rapids, where that again could turn the entire -- it's really only a couple of counties in a couple of states, guys that will move this entire thing. it's really bonkers if you think about it. >> i'm just really glad now i

can see where pennsylvania hits lake erie. that was eye opening for me just there, brian. >> that sarcasm, it's too early. >> no. i'm not kidding. i must be horrible at -- lake erie, ohio, basically the top northeast corner of ohio kind of touches erie county, right? of pennsylvania? >> yeah. and so it's a weird mix because 100 miles from buffalo, 100 miles from cleveland and 100 miles from pittsburgh. a third in steelers jerseys, a third in cleveland brown jerseys and a third in bills. there was a former president donald j. trump who was down south in a place called pittsburgh, joe. i don't know if you saw that last night. >> donald. >> at a steelers game. they were chanting after his short-lived stint at a mcdonald's. >> i saw that, yeah.

instead of a streaker at the game, running across the field, there was a young woman with a trump sign, made it to the 50 yard line. i don't think she is actually tackled, but they ushered her off the field pretty quickly. >> reporter: you had me at streaker, joe. you never know what could happen later. tune in all day long. >> streaking is a thing of the past. don't try it, brian. >> nobody wants to see that. >> all right, my friend. i saw -- we saw your next move. be interesting to hear what's going on. pennsylvania and michigan. >> we're here today, though. >> yeah, you are. but if you knew pencil michigan.

if you knepennsylvania and michigan. >> i'll know who will win this whole thing by the end of this week, i think. >> okay. >> cocky. >> very good. thank you. see you. >> thanks. tell us when you figure it out. when we come back, a key vote this week for boeing workers that could end the month-old strike. we will talk about it. and later, mark cuban joins us. he hosted a town hall in phoenix with small business owners where he focussed on vice president harris. harris' economic plans. he will be our guest in stju a little bit. "squawk box" will be right back. dad: i'm gonna clean the fence. daughter: it's a lot of fence. dad: you wanna help me? dad: aim at the wall, but get closer. daughter: (gasps) what the?! daughter: alright. dad: side to side. when you work with someone who knows a lot and cares even more... you can do this. ...you're unstoppable. (♪♪) wow... are you kidding me? you can do this.

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so, interesting sort of touch point on maybe how americans feel about at least what's happened in the yolo travel economy. joe? coming up, boeing shares are rising this morning finally on hopes of a deal with workers. a vote expected mid week that could end that strike. we'll talk about it after the break. as we head to the break, take a look at crypto, little weaker this morning. but, sitting around bitcoin a six-month high at 68.3. quk x"ilbeig bk. it all starteh a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪

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welcome back to "squawk box." boeing reaching a tentative deal that could end the strike after morn a month. workers are set to vote on that settlement wednesday as the same day the company releases third quarter results. you look at this deal. you're looking at it from the perspective of investors. is this a good deal, up 35% across the board? >> well, look, i think what's important here, they've got to get this deal done.

and i think this has been a real struggle. it's pretty much in line with what we were expecting on it. but i think you ultimately have to get it done. you know, kelly has taken over. we sort of looked at this situation at boeing in three stages. first, getting the strike resolved, capital raise cleared. second, we need to see a plan on how he really sees taking the company forward and getting it fully ecovered. finally they have to execute. and you can't get to the plan unless you get this strike situation resolved. so, you know, in our view, this had to get done. if this goes through and it seems reasonable to us that it would, the 35% increase is not going to really change the dynamics or the financials in the company tremendously. they've got to get the deal done. >> so does it change the margins, though, no? not at all? it's got to. >> it will a little bit. when you look at -- so, itfects

the 737, 777, 767, what it does do, you're looking at labor, touch labor on an aircraft is 3 to 4% of total cost. so, doing a raise like this over four years, yes, it will affect the margins. but i don't think it's going to be dramatic. also, they are putting in place cost reduction plan to reduce head count overall by 10%. that will offset some of this, but i don't think it's a huge affect on margin. >> doug, we are looking at a stock that's -- you can't see it, but on the screen next to you, this stock is down nearly 40% this year. sits at 160 bucks right now. what do you think the fair value for this company is today? >> well, we -- our target is 195. and that's 12-month target. now, the channel they have the that you're basically looking at

cash pressure here because they've got 45 billion in net debts. that's going to be coming out. they have to pay that down over the next few years. that means very little cash back to shareholders. but, when we look at this on an ebitda basis long-term andget to 195 price target. but, i want to just stress that i think the short-term is very interesting. and by short-term i mean the next six to nine months. it gets more difficult when you see can they really execute? and by execute, i mean, get production rates up on the max first. get production rates up on the 787. that will be a key thing here. >> doug, you keep saying they have to get this done. the stock is up 3.25% on the idea this vote is coming wednesday. what happens if the union votes it down? >> well, you know, that's of course always possible. i think that's -- i would view that negatively. i think what they've proposed here i think it fits right in

with the modelling we've done. and at this stage, it would be an awfully long strike as well if this went more than six weeks. so, you know, yeah. i would say it's negative if they can't get it done. >> i figured that, but negative to the tune of how much and the stock? >> well, probably looking -- maybe going right back where you were before today. i mean, we're looking at some significant upside today. but again, by not getting it done, that doesn't -- it's a question of timing. will this take one more week? that's probably not a big deal. historically we found when you have a strike situation like this, and there have been four of them, it takes about two to three months to get production back up to somewhat of a planned level. so, you know, whether it lasts one more week, two more weeks, you're still going to see that affect over two to three months.

i think it's just being able to look ahead at the horizon, seeing that you're going to clear this. we'll see on wednesday. i think the odds are this will go through. but it's always hard to predict. >> doug, we will see what happens on wednesday. i'm sure we'll talk to you a lot more about it after that. thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. coming up, kevin hassett and jason furman square off on the economy, the election and more. that's next. and check out the futures. still in the red. for the start of the week after what has been a very solid couple of months. but down today. "squawk box" will be right back.

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all right. welcome back, everybody. watching the markets this morning, and as we continue to see pressure being put on the futures this morning, we're also continuing to watch the treasury market. right now if you look at the 10 year, you're looking at 4.136%. that yield continues to climb. on friday it climbed at its highest level since july. and those yields are pushing higher again this morning. andrew? >> meantime, signa removed erts to combine with humana. according to a bloomberg report, saying the companies have now held informal discussions recently about a potential deal. the price might make more sense. would look to close the sale of medicare advantage business in the coming weeks before committing to any other transactions, though. that would potentially removeover lap with humana. of course all this likely to draw scrutiny from anti-trust

regulators no matter who is the next president of the united states. berkshire hathaway is increasing stake in siriusxm. and now holding over 110 million sirius shares roughly 32% of the company's tock. 15th largest position for berkshire. sirius stock is down 50% for the year. it has -- it's demise was greatly exaggerated. almost $10 billion company, $9 billion company. and we were talking about it earlier. i don't know. so many other ways that for a while they weren't going to let those two merge. they're lucky the future of sirius xm looked in doubt with all these other services.

rem reminds me of a cable bundle. i'm surprised people don't cut the cord. i pay for four different -- and when it goes out, i notice it. it's troubling. to me. >> for me it's the news offerings that they have. you can't replicate anywhere. >> exactly. third quarter earnings season is, as you know, under way. many big tech companies still going to report. joining us now for a check on the sector is ray wang, research principal analyst, founder and chairman. and there are some big themes, ray, that you point out. a-i may be one of the biggest. wasn't always. used to be cloud and ads and things like that. but, it's ai. and is it long in the tooth? or got a long way to go, do you think? >> joe, this one is here for a while. it's not going to change. and it's really because we're just at the beginning of the ai build-out. one of the big places to see where that build-out is happening is really in the nvidia earnings. on the back end what your seeing is nvidia seeing about 106.2

billion in capital spending in the first half of the year. and they're expecting another 60 billion in q3. who is paying for this? well, it's actually the big tech companies, like google and microsoft that have massive cap-x on their books. that's really what's driving a lot of this. the other piece that's interesting is blackwell sold out, all those orders are still not necessarily going to be filled in time for these big tech companies to build out their ai infrastructure. >> for those companies that are the big customers of nvidia, they're spending a lot of money. when does that pay off for -- the big companies are doing great already. they don't want to get behind other big companies. but all that money that they're spending, it seems initially just expenses with no payoff? >> it feels that way. it's like at the beginning when amazon was doing the build-out to deliver on commerce. everybody feels that there's a need to do that. take google for example, or alphabet. they did 50 billion in revenue a

quarter but spent 13 million in cap-x. 19 billion in cap-x for microsoft. that's big numbers and has investors worried. ai is different than the internet. lots of winners and things were cheaper. ai, it is closed. it is not -- it's centralized. it's more expensive. and only a few players are going to win. >> do you own all mag 7? do you own all of them? >> i do. >> you do? >> i do own all mag 7. >> you own all of them. could you rank them? >> yeah, i can rank them. actually for me right now i think amazon is probably the one -- well, nvidia is on top. then amazon. then, of course, looking at the opportunities it's microsoft and google because of the ai play. apple because they've got good services on the back end. tesla is a wild card. mostly because of the robots as

well as the megapacs. that energy piece is important. but the robot piece is bigger than robo taxi in terms of the robots in the field. and of course, if you're looking at meta, meta actually the reason i put meta further down is because we'll see how long it takes them to get the llms and the open source portions to actually pick up. but they're doing really well as well. >> some of the other themes you mentioned, ad tech. ad tech is dependent on ai and the cloud, we talked about for the cloud and longer. that's a really important business. that's informed in how it does is informed by ai as well. you can't take it out of any of those. but, on their own, what about ad tech? do you have to know how the economy is going to do globally to be able to make some determinations about that business? >> you know, joe, that is one part of that and one aspect. google meta benefit because they're the top two players. but you have to remember, this

is real interesting. google won on search. meta won on social and amazon won on commerce but they all have digital ads. that's the interesting piece. so google is twice as big as meta. meta at this point is twice as big as amazon. but the next player to compete is no where close, right? they're not at the same level in terms of the amount of revenue. so with the political season in place, google and meta will benefit a lot more than amazon but amazon has been growing their ad business fairly consistently about 19 to 23% every quarter. that's really where we're going to see some massive shifts in the marketplace because now you have commerce. you have ads and of course they have subscriptions and membership. amazon has the complete digital monetization models. >> we don't have time to talk about regulatory head winds, but since no one is ever going to be able to merge again and everybody will be broken up, could be the mag 20 or mag 30 eventually. >> i think it will be around for a while, but the challenges need

regulatory relief. we need regulatory relief and might happen in the next -- ipos are stuck and of course, we can't do mergers. that's why everything is held up. >> break up everyone. how many would there be? mag 21? each one get broken into three. >> let's go with mag 50. >> some would be broken into two or four or five. >> mag 20 is probably not a bad guess. >> mag 20 it is. >> mag 20. hey, give us more totalk about. that would be expanding breath. >> diversification. >> good for the market. right. ray, thank you. >> hey, thanks a lot. >> ray wang. on the other side, we'll talk the fed, the economy and so much more. and later in the show, mark cuban will be with us. we got a lot to talk to him about. quk x"omg ckig "sawbo cinba rht after this.

>> ray wang.

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welcome back, everybody. former president trump and vice president harris continue to push their economic agendas on the campaign trail as the election quickly approaches. joining us right now is jason furman who served as the chairman of the council of economic advisors under

president obama and is now a professor at harvard's kennedy school of government and kevin hassett who served under president trump now a distinguished fellow at stanford's hoover institution and welcome it both of you. we are just a couple weeks away from the election. the economy front and center and listed as one of the top issues for just about every voter out there. the perception between what people in the economics world look at the economy versus what the voters think has been wide. let me ask you each what you think of the economy right now, how you would grade it and jason, i'll start with you. >> it's amazing. you don't see another advanced economy like this. we will probably get something like a 3% growth rate in the data next -- for the last quarter that follows 3% the quarter before. inflation's come down. the unemployment rate has come down the last two months. it's hard not to be enthusiastic about this macro economy. it has a lot of causes.

i'm not saying this is all biden by any stretch, but it's good. >> kevin, how would you grade the economy? >> i've been very much surprised on the upside since the middle of last summer. jason, and i were e-mailing back and forth he was sort of better about the beginning of the fall than i was and thought the fed moved too much, and i didn't. but i think that jason's right, that the economy is showing strength and i think that the previous segment with joe highlighted one of the key contributing factors. you know, the last gdp release we had had equipment investment up about 10%. look at cyclical indicators, equipment investment is one of the main ones and tends to go up a lot it booms and down a lot it busts. up 10% a lot is all this nvidia stuff and ai investment, but with capital spending going up that much and gdp now running in the 3s, we're looking at a relatively strong economy, at least in the business sector. >> and yet the voters seem to disagree. polling at cbs done earlier this

month showed six out of ten americans actually rated this economy as fairly bad or very bad. only one in ten said that it was very good. why do you think that is? we will start with jason again. >> look, i mean we had a lot of inflation. that inflation was quite bad. it got households into a deep hole in terms of prices outstripping wages. now it's the opposite. wages outstripping prices. people are digging themselves out of that hole. but i get -- i get why they feel that way, and it's compounded by the fact that you always get when there's inflation people credit themselves for their wage gains, blame the government are for the price increases and don't see the two as something that economists call money illusion. it's some combination of reality, money illusion, and then things that probably have nothing to do with the economy that people are reacting to. >> how does this play out in the economy? kevin, maybe you can tackle --

in the election, maybe tackle that side of things, if people aren't feeling like they have done well under this economy what happens in two weeks? >> sure. well the history of it is there's a fellow named ray at yale that's written a lot of papers on this and i think they're pretty good papers, never talked to you about them, but i find his stuff pretty reliable and his evidence when the economy is strong it's good for incumbents. i would say that if the strong top line data that we're seeing overwhelmed the negative effects of inflation and feeling like you're paying too much for gas and so on, then that would be a positive for democrats. the one thing i can say, however, not only matters what's happening to prices but which prices. one of the things about this cycle isthat the things that people have to buy, especially if you're a family with kids, those are some of the things that have gone up the most in price. that makes it so that the inflation is a good deal more painful because you can't substi today to something else. i think that the negative from

inflation and consumption associated associated with it is going to neutralize. >> jason, how about you? does this reflect negatively on kamala harris? what does she do? >> the truth is no matter how good the economy is, i wouldn't say you should base your vote on how good the economy is. as kevin said, this has to do with things like development in artificial intelligence, it has to do with the fed, it has to do with luck. the important questions are, you know, what do things look like going forward and what are the plans of the two? and, you know, i have argued that i think that donald trump's plans are riskier. they're river in terms of what could happen on trade, on immigration, what could happen to the fed, and fiscal policy where about every analysis i've seen has shown larger deficits under his plan. i think it's this contrast going forward that is the most

important, not looking at what's happened to growth or inflation in the past. >> you guys tend to agree on a lot of things, but i know you disagree on which candidate you're supporting. kevin, if jason is convinced it's better on trade, immigration, fed and fiscal analysis, what do you say back? >> i disagree, but i think the risk analysis for vice president harris really depends on whether she really has changed her mind about banning fracking and offshore drilling and all the rest, that i think she had those positions just a few months ago and has sort of gone run towards the middle for the general election and the point i think is that if she wins, then probably the democrats control congress and if that's true, then what is she going to do when aoc leads a charge to ban fracking or have the green new deal or stack the supreme court some of the things she's supported in the past. i think the risk analysis doesn't break as clearly as jason might suggest. >> how do you respond to that, ideas if kamala harris has a

democratic congress backing her -- there are breakdowns -- is this going to be a red wave, blue wave, is it going to be kamala harris with a republican congress, donald trump with a democratic congress? risking out all of that when we talk to people on wall street most say as long as it's not a red wave or blue wave they'd be okay with it. how do you feel about those? >> divided government, either which way, can actually be deficit increasing where each party trades their priorities for the other priorities, republicans get defense increases, democrats get nondefense increases, republicans get business tax cuts, democrats get tax cuts for children. so i'm not sure that wall street is right about divided government when it comes to our fiscal situation. but to go back to what kevin said on -- let's say fracking, for example, i'm not worried about that in the slightest. that was a position she took four years ago. she hasn't taken it at all when she's in the white house. if she wins she's going to be

running for re-election in four years and going to need to win pennsylvania. if she has 50 votes in the senate at least one of them is going to dissent from fracking. i'm not -- she's talked about all the energy strategy of all the risks i'm worried about with her, extreme statements she made four or five years ago, i don't know if she meant them then and what's in her heart now. i know what her incentives and constraints are. >> one thing, judd gregg, the former senator and governor, pointed out he thinks one of the biggest issues is retaining the filibuster as it standing. if that falls that is a significantly important thing that actually changes up or frame of government now. what would you think about that? . i would say just to respond to what jason said that is the biggest risk if you go back and look if we didn't have joe manchin and krysten sinema we would have lost the filibuster.

if the democrats control the senate is there somebody going to step up and take care of it or not? and i think it's a risk. because if you end the filibuster and stack the supreme court you've seen what's happened in mexico and i think something like that happens here as well. >> jason, quick last word. >> i'm not that worried about that. i'm a little bit more worried no one is taking our fiscal situation seriously enough but one of these candidates is taking it much, much less seriously than the other. that to me is a real likely thing to happen. >> jason and kevin, thank you both for joining us today. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> it is 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. among today's top stories china central bank is cutting its benchmark lending rate in a bid to revive the country's economy. china has seen a troubled property sector lately and the one-year loan prime rate lowered

by 25 basis points to 3.1%. the five-year rate was cut by that same margin. >> starboard value taking a stake in tylenol maker kenvue according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to cnbc. k kenvue spun out of johnson & johnson. the journal says starboard wants kenvue to -- its stock price. don't miss jeff smith tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. eastern time on "squawk on the street." ai search engine pro plexty ai looking to double its valuation to about $9 billion in its next funding round. we're told the company is looking to raise $500 million in new funding although that could change that amount. ai startups are notorious for burning through cash. perplexity valued at $3 billion in june and started the year valued at one sixth that amount. take a look at futures right now on this monday morning. we're going to open down on the

dow off 116, 117 points. the nasdaq down about 130 points. the s&p 500 off about 22 points. so treasuries as well. the 10-year at 4.132 the 2-year at 3.985. down to the new york stock exchange where mike santoli is standing by. what are you looking at, mike? >> andrew, backing off from record highs a little bit this morning, take a look at the s&p 500 year-to-date, it's, obviously, a bull market and a pretty persistent one up six weeks in a row, ten months out of 11. it's become more hard-fought since mid-july. keep pointing out only up a few. this angle recently has become more of a pretty steady hire. keep in mind, cyclical leadership confirms it's a pretty good economic message being sent by the s&p 500. last week on a short-term tactical basis a lot of short squeezes, a lot of the more speculative stuff starting to run, that sometimes happens when a rally matures, corporate insiders have picked up their

selling. maybe time for a rest. friday was an options expiration and often the market can move a little bit more freely and get a little bit jumper after that happens, at least in the ensuing week. take a look at the equal weighted s&p 500 compared to the russell 2000 small cap index. so much talk about the broadening out of the market from that concentrated leadership we had in the first half of the year. it has happened but not synonymous with small cap stocks leading the way. the equal weight s&p as you can see has really pulled away from small caps. russell 2000, total market cap is like 6 or 7% maybe of overall u.s. market value so it's not necessarily decisive. although it has started to run here and going to do well, if cyclicals and financials do well and fed cuts rates. i don't think it has veto power over whether this is a healthy bull market or not. s&p 500 over five years relative to gold. gold keeps clicking to new high, name your narrative on why that is.

central bank buying and people concerned about deficits or geopolitical stuff. what you see interesting to me, this angle is exactly the same pretty much as the s&p 500 in the last few months. so at love assets are going up in value in a similar fashion right now. with their underlying character. >> thank you. boeing is more than a month long strike could come to an end this week but even if machinists vote yes on the latest deal the jet maker doesn't have an easy road back to business as usual. we're going to talk about what that road could look like ahead and a little later this hour, billionaire investor mark cuban is going to join us on the race for the white house. you're watching "squawk" and this is cnbc. 44 (man) these men of means with their silver spoons. what will become of them when they discover robinhood gold allows others to earn

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striking boeing machinists are set to vote on a new contract proposal on wednesday which is the same day the company's going to report third quarter results. the boeing workers walked off

the job last month. the latest deal would see employee wages rise 35% over four years, and it also includes thousands of dollars for bonuses and 401(k) contributions. joining us now on the corporate fallout from the strike, eric densinghall resources chair and you've watched a lot of these crises at different companies over the years, eric. are we at a moment of clarity? a lot of times in -- that comes from a different type of crisis, but when something hits bottom there are some tell-tell signs. a new ceo, acknowledgement money will have to be raised through new offerings and asset dispositions. not hearing quite as much from the media is usually a good sign if the media loses interest in a story. are those things indicative of a

bottom? >> i think what we're seeing is a step in the right direction. when we talked a few minutes ago one of the things we talked about is the need to sell assets and resolve the strike. these seem to be going in the right direction. these things are part of the cocktail and generally when the media lose interest and play by play, things are very good. i mean, look, the solution to crises are usually very borrboring, things like selling assets, raising money, government intervention, getting new contracts. they're the things that are not particularly sexy. and i think that these two pending situations are -- seem very, very -- seem to be very good steps in the right direction. >> the -- the company sort of stabilizing and reaching a bottom is different than whether the stock hits a bottom or is actually ready to recover.

there are going to be more shares outstanding, so that's dill lieutive. i don't know how the public perception is going to change. i would think if wages go up, margins could be adversely impacted, although i don't know if labor is the biggest expense at boeing at this point. a stable company doesn't mean the stock is headed back to $250. >> no. those are two very, very different things. i mean i can tell you one thing that public confidence is not encouraged by constant coverage and this kind of head rolling that seems to accompany modern crises, that the solution seems to be firing -- firing ceos. at some point you have to let somebody do their job, succeed or fail, and generally i think when the public starts to become a bit bored, you have a chance -- a chance to recover as opposed to for this expectation

that someone's going to come along and pull a magic rabbit out of a hat. >> and it's a constant concern for boeing. they don't just make a product, they make something where, you know -- i mean we need safety across the board, all u.s. companies, what you make, draws you, automobiles, whatever it is. few -- few companies are at such a risk for a major event where, you know, there's a huge loss of huge life if there's a safety issue and, you know, you're still trying to have the most profitable company that you can safely have, so it's a constant fine line that boeing has to walk. >> well, we always divide crises at least when we teach mba students between the chronic and the catastrophic. the problem you have with the airline industry is the attention it gets, tends to be triggered by something catastrophic. we memorialize in our brains

catastrophic incidents or the potential of catastrophic incidents where as, you know, a drug company that makes a drug that occasionally has side effects that you anticipate, this is -- this is more episodic and chronic than it is catastrophic. when you have an airplane i think we all know what people fear and that's what drove this into the news at the forefront, at the beginning. >> so it's going to be from once if the strike is settled, then we go back to what you're hoping for or what you think the company is hoping for, that's a boring, maybe single, singles and doubles -- >> that's right. >> get production levels up a little bit. >> don't have accidents. >> no accidents. no more software issues for pilots. no more, you know, doors popping off or it wasn't a door. but none of those issues are acceptable at this point and can

ortberg accomplish that? >> well, i mean, i certainly think that by not allowing ortberg to accomplish it, that's not -- that's not good. so at some point you have to let a ceo give it a shot. any safety-related crises i've ever been involved with, tend to be resolved by not having those bad things happen and not having attention being driven to the company. safety related incidents tend to be the catalyst for further examinations of culture, of how the company is structured, and i think that that will go a long way. the only question mark i have, and i can't answer it, is whether or not the resolution of the strike is -- will be financially doable. but that's something people who know more about finance than i do will have to answer. >> but also, there were the two catastrophic events with boeing, but then it was just a drip, drip, drip, of, you know, some things didn't even result in any

actual occurrences. it was just reported. oh, no, we found another, you know, structural weakness in the fuselage. it's, you know -- how do you stop that? how does -- how does ortberg -- i just -- you know, i can't imagine you would have to -- it would have to be a new culture you would have to -- >> yeah. but new cultures take time. i mean it's not like a new ceo comes in and says, you know, bad culture go away. i think it takes time. and so the last cinematic episodes plus these boring sort of managerial operational steps, i mean these are things that are part of the cocktail that get you closer to boring your way out of the news. >> very good. all right. eric, thank you. >> thank you. >> do you send your comments to boeing? are you get paid for helping,

ii guess? >> i have no involvement with boeing whatsoever. >> right. >> i couldn't -- to talk to, but if they'd like to -- >> a book -- >> i imagine they can google it. >> you're in the book, okay. >> yeah. >> that is like -- that's what you take 25 years ago. >> in the yellow pages. they can look you up, get your reading glasses and find you. >> find the yellow pages. >> exactly. i used to be so excite good. >> 20 years ago. >> when the phone books come, i would be so excited. all right. when we come back we will get you up to speed on the latest developments in the middle east and then investor and entrepreneur mark cuban will join us fresh from the presidential campaign trail. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. ♪♪ data science can help address some of the biggest challenges in financial markets. if we focus on the mortgage market and follow the life of a loan from origination

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "squawk box." beautiful shot live there of the capitol right now. the futures looking lower this morning on this monday morning. dow up about 100 points, 103 points. nasdaq looking to open down 107 points. the s&p off 20 points. >> some of the latest headlines out of the middle east israel bombing branches of a hezbollah-run financial institution that lebanon -- in lebanon that israel says is used to fund attacks. many ordinarypeople also keep their savings there. there were no reports of casualties. meantime, palestinian health officials say 18 were killed in fighting in the northern gaza strip and 8 elsewhere in the territory. israel intensifying its campaigns in gaza and lebanon in the days after it killed hamas'

leader and many are still expecting retaliation on iran for a missile barrage that it fired at israel on october 1st. joining us on the conflicts is former trump administration deputy national security adviser victoria coates, now foreign policy president at the heritage foundation and one of the things we left out is this attack on bibi netanyahu's home off the weekend as well. he wasn't injured but that was a pretty close call i think by most people watching. >> yeah. becky, good to be with you. i mean this really shows how personal this war has become and, you know, it is a direct tit-for-tat as you mentioned. the israelis caught yahya sinwar the head of hamas last week in a huge blow to hamas and, obviously, they've taken out the leadership of hezbollah as well. so this is, as i said, personal. everyone i think is pleased that

the prime minister wasn't hurt, but it's a very dicey situation. >> what does sinwar's death mean just in terms of what might come next with this? what does it mean in potential possibilities? >> it really undermines hamas' ability to function as a fighting force, but also as a political force because that was part of with what he was responsible for and so there's discussion that the leadership of hamas will be moved out of gaza altogether, probably to doha where a number of their senior surviving people are living at this point, but that makes it very, very difficult to control the situation on the ground, so hamas is really decapitated. it's time for a decision, for the people, the palestinians living in gaza about what kind of life they want to lead. prime minister netanyahu laid out terms last week, you know, lay down your arms, surrender, you will be spared. release the hostages. that's how we can bring this thing to an end. >> if that were to happen, if

they laid down arms, the hostages were released, would you still expect and anticipate a retaliatory strike on iran? >> well, i think that's something the israelis have to weigh out because both the strike from iran in april and then the one as you said on october 1st that's a huge escalation. iran had not attacked israel directly before. they have to do something, and the question is what they want to hit, whether they want to wait until the american election. these things can go on for a couple of months before a direct action is taken. that's what happened in january of 2020 with the sol manny strike, that was a good six, seven weeks after the attack that inspired it. so i think, you know, for israel it really is going to be sort of an opportunity for them, whether they see a strike that would be advantageous for them or if they think that it would be too escalatory and they don't want

to risk a wider regional war. >> i think that's what the difficulty is. the idea of wanting to make progress on peace talks and returning the hoistages, but alo wanting to retaliate. they don't seem like they necessarily could comingle. >> no. that's really their dilemma. i mean it's been over a year now that we've had this kind of slow motion grinding hostage situation that is so cruel and there are 101 of them, some 50 may still be alive, including some americans, and so, you know, getting that situation resolved is -- has to be a top priority. at the same time as i said you can't allow the iranians to normalize firing 181 ballistic missiles at israel. there has to be some kind of response. the question is when. >> the election here in the united states two weeks away. you hinted at the idea there could be something we wait to see response after that

election. does it matter who wins in that election in terms of what israel might or how it might respond? >> i think it does. i mean there is certainly a very strong perception that the trump administration was more aggressively supportive of israel. we had the leak of the intelligence documents over the weekend, you know, and i don't have a crystal ball, i can't tell you what's going to happen in the future, but i can tell you that never happened in the first trump term, and that i think is, you know, something that will shape israeli calculus if they think they're more likely to get a more robust support from a future trump administration that might well behoove them to wait for that and not sort of upset the apple cart politically in the united states in the interim. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> coming up in just a moment, billionaire investor mark cuban out stumping for vice president kamala harris. he's going to join us live right after the break. stay tuned.

you're watching "squawk" and this is cnbc.

♪ welcome back to "squawk box." we've been watching the futures this morning. we've been in the red all morning. at times more than 100 points down for the dow and nasdaq. now just below that for the dow at least off by 88 points. nasdaq down by 100. the s&p down by 20 points. treasuries we have seen higher yields. in fact on friday the 10-year -- the 20-year and 30-year closed at the highest levels since july. the 10-year this morning at 4.12 and the 2-year is higher as well. oil prices looks like wti is up 1.6%, above $70 a barrel. gold prices we've been watching as well. you can see right now that comex

gold up to 2,734 over an ounce. a look at bitcoin this morning above 68,000. 68,248. >> cuba's electrical grid collapsed yesterday causing a fourth blackout in the last 48 hours. the national grid crashed around midday on friday after the island's largest power plant shut down leaving around 10 million people in the dark. it has collapsed repeatedly since then. the blackout sparked several protests which were -- said were dispersed by security forces and we have some i think some breaking news now. >> breaking news. >> on disney. alex sherman joins us now with more. hey, alex. >> so two pieces of disney breaking news right now. the first that mark parker will be stepping off the board after nine years and he will be

replaced as chairman of the board by james gorman. the former ceo of morgan stanley. that's piece of news number one. piece of news number two, disney formally saying it will announce bob iger's successor for ceo in early 2026. that is later than what i had previously reported disney targeted a date of where they were looking at 2025. this will give the board more time to make a robust selection of a new ceo for bob iger. this was a big issue, you can remember when nelson peltz took the stand he pushed the idea of succession hard. disney has struggled with it. i apologize for the dog in the background. but this gives even more time for the company to make a new ceo, so early 2026 will be the new ceo candidate. january 2nd, 2025, is when mark parker will depart the board. he says in a release that has been issued by the company he's

going to focus on other areas. i'm told that is nike related. a lot of struggles with nike naming a new ceo by itself. >> hey there, alex. one question for you is given the james gorman moving into the chairman role does that indicate that when bob iger steps down and the replacement is stepping up, that it would be unlikely for bob iger to move into a chairman-like role? >> yeah. >> or chairman role? >> another thing i'm told no decision has been made with bob iger in terms of what happens when his contract runs out. his contract as ceo does not run out until december 31st, 2026. so if the new ceo is named in early 2026, that gives them, you know, a series of months of runway there where iger can sort of transition out as ceo, but it's possible bob iger would stick around on the board and maybe then be elevated to the chairman of the board. so we don't know that yet. >> james gorman, so everybody is

aware, has been heading up the succession planning for bob iger and that committee looking for his replacement, too, because james gorman did such a good job at morgan stanley of setting up his succession planning too. >> one other thing i'm told all four internal candidates, the leading internal candidates, disney clear entertainment chairman dana waldman and alan berger, espn president and then the head of the parks and resorts dosh demar ro, they've all met with the succession committee headed by james gorman. the board looking at internal and external candidates but all along here disney insiders thought the most likely candidates would be one of those internal candidates. they've all met recently with the board and it's not the first time they've met with the board to talk about succession, but it is an indication we are full-on go here for the board to look for a new succession candidate but i will say that when you push the date back to early

2026, this issue is going to hover over the company for at least a year. i know i talked to people that hoped a candidate would be named in early 2025, just to have clarity on the issue. >> this feels a little bit -- and i wouldn't compare them necessarily -- but if you remember -- both you would remember general electric when there was this succession bake-off that was going on for, you know, two years, year and a half, where everybody was racing to figure out -- >> you remember the three. >> who was going to take the job, immult got it, you lad mcnerney and then they went everywhere. who in your mind right now is tipped at the -- who would you handicap at the top of the list? i know you a gave a couple of names. directionally do you have any sense? we are out of time and we got mark cuban on the other side of this so we're going to say goodbye to alex for now, and i'm

sure we will get back to him throughout the day as more news emerges on this very subject. but right now we are just over two weeks until election day and our next guest was out on the trail this weekend supporting vice president harris, and he found himself the online target of former president trump. joining us right now is billionaire investor and entrepreneur mark cuban minority owner of the dallas mavericks, co-founder of cost plus drugs.com. mark, great to see you this morning. >> thanks for having me on. >> couple things, i want to get to some of the things that elon musk who is on the other side of you, sort of dueling billionaires if you will, but i want to start just with the polls and where this election stands. clearly your candidate was at least it seemed doing better than she was a couple -- she was doing better a couple weeks ago than looks like she's doing today. if that's true, why do you think that's true? >> who knows.

i mean, that was the regular season. this is the playoffs. doesn't really matter. it's what happens going forward. you know, like every candidate always says you have to play like you're one point behind. that's what we're doing. >> what do you think of the polls? and from your conversations inside the campaign, what do they think of the polls? >> just what i said. different polls have different results. different people claim different weightings. the conversations are they weighting women enough. is it the reverse of 2016 where the harris voters are the shy voters that aren't communicating to polls or publicly. nobody knows. it comes down to get out the vote. the harris campaign versus elon, not even versus trump. >> you're a markets guy. what do you think of poly market? what do you think of some of the other marketplaces where people are effectively taking bets on this election and, again, what looks like a big move for former president trump? >> well let me first say i'm an

indirect investor in poly market through a fund i'm in, a crypto fund i'm in, and i know that you're not supposed to be an american and wet on poly market. and so it's not really an indication i think of anything. and i don't really know what hedges are out there, so it's possible to, you know, bet on one side and not bet on the other. from all indications, the most of the money coming into poly market is foreign money. i don't think it's an indication of anything. >> let's talk about elon musk. he's been critical of you, you have been critical of him. what do you make in particular of thiss weekend's new effort t get people to the polls, using a million dollars a day, offering up for those who effectively sign his petition and register to vote. >> it's innovative and desperate. you only do that because you have to. using a sweepstakes is not a bad idea. whether or not it will work is

another thing. it could backfire. >> do you think it's legal? >> i mean, i actually looked into it. i initially thought it might not have been. as sa sweepstakes looks like it may be. from an fec perspective i have no idea. >> hey, mark, looking at nbc article from our corporate parent, just said at an arizona town hall meeting when asked about the possibility of unrealized taxing unrealized capital gains you said if you really thought that the vice president would do that, that you'd campaign against her, so i guess that's -- that's a true comment you made? >> yeah. what i said was -- >> go on. >> it's not going to happen. absolutely not going to happen. if for some reason she lied about it i would campaign against her so there wouldn't be a second term. >> what i was going to ask you is, i'm not going to go through -- these are like 20 things, but pick out a couple that i think would be really scary. >> sure. >> if she were to try to abolish

the filibuster, if you -- >> i'm against that. i don't agree with that. next. >> and then how about free health care for all -- >> she doesn't talk about that. here's what she's talking about -- >> but there were some things she has said -- i can pick out ten things where -- >> i could go back. >> i would campaign against her. what do you like? if all these other things -- >> first let me say -- >> okay. >> i saw an interview with donald trump where he would tax the oil industry out of existence. he still support that? people change that. >> oi don't remember that. >> i'll send it to you. when i was in phoenix i was talking about the difference between harris and trump for small businesses and i can go down through the list of things i love about her. first of all 99.5% of businesses are small businesses, pass through businesses, and she's been very, very clear anybody making 400 k or less, which is almost every pass through business, their taxes are going

to stay the same or go down. and so that's one area where she has an advantage there. we don't have clarity from trump. number two is health care. she has been very, very specific that pbm, that pharmacy middle men, are jacking up prices and having a negative impact on the cost of health care and she's going to do something about it. that's a conversation i've had directly with her. i know the impact it could have. it can turn into an immediate 20 to 30% savings for small businesses and for their employees, particularly with the ones with high deductible plans. that's more than an offset for inflation, for households and for small businesses because the reality is, those pharmacies, the big pharmacy benefit managers aren't passing through the rebates on brands, using generics to jack up the price of generic medications. all pricing for health care is distorted for small business. she has come out and talked about it. donald trump hasn't said a word. number three we talked about immigration. both have said that --

noncitizens that are illegal they're they're both going to deport them. they haven't talked about how they're going to deal with deportation of law abiding noncitizens. donald trump has got stephen miller who said he wants mass deportations. i sat in front of restaurant owners and asked them what would it be like if all of a sudden you got a knock on your door somebody from stephen miller's squad asking you for the names and addresses and immigration status of everybody that works for you why. that's not how you can run a country. kamala harris has said she's going to have specific procedures for law-abiding noncitizens to for the process they will have to follow to stay or leave. you want that to be sane, to be transparent, you want there to be a specific process for everybody to follow. you don't want elian gonzalez type scenarios. that is horrible for business. small business as bigger business, this taiwan policy.

he just came out a few days ago saying that if china went into taiwan, he would tariff china 150 to 200%. you know the most important company in the world is taiwan semiconductor. they control the destiny of video, apple, mag seven, trillions of dollars of market cap. he literally turned that decision into a financial decision. that's insane. you cannot put at risk our entire technological advancement, our entire technological economy and the future of ai in this country as a tariff decision. that just doesn't work. >> mark, just an example of how both sides -- i can never remember an election where both sides fall back on either oh, yeah, they don't really mean that or well, you know, it's going to be gridlock so none of that stuff is going to happen. >> what did i say that had to do with either of those things?

i told you specifically. >> there is an election where both sides have to constantly distance themselves from the -- they still support the candidate but distance themselves from certain parts of the candidate's platform. >> you don't have to agree with everything from any candidate. >> yeah. it's just -- it's just i've nef seen an election where both sides are like don't worry about it -- >> go back to what i was talking about. you didn't address that at all. >> you took my filibuster question to health care. that's your own thing. >> you asked me specifically what are the things about her that i agree with, that i support. i told you i didn't support the philly buster. >> what other things she's proposed in the past would cause you to campaign against her if she went through with it? >> oh, yeah. what she did four years ago, like donald trump and the oil thing. there's lots of things, you know, that candidates change over a period of years. that's one of the great things about kamala harris. she's not an ideologue. she is open minded. that's why she's changed.

donald trump thinks he knows everything, and he doesn't change. >> let me ask you, mark, do you think that she should be doing more interviews and more importantly, do you think she should be talking about how she has changed, what she has learned? because in truth, oftentimes she's asked about how different -- she'll i'm going to be different than biden but won't explain what difference is or asked about what she would have done differently in the past and won't give you actual real examples or she'll be asked about things before and she won't say well, actually, i learned from this or that, and i -- maybe we made mistakes and that makes me a better candidate because of that. >> right. >> for whatever reason, inexplicably at least to me, that is not the answer you hear. oftentimes it's actually an answer about how consistent she believes that her perspective has been the entire time. >> yeah. i mean, i would handle some things differently but there's two weeks left, you know, and

different stages of a campaign require different arguments. you know, she went from being at a favorable deficit and awareness deficit and, you know, 12, 13 weeks ago, whatever it was, and being way behind donald tru trump, and now they're in a dead heat. whatever she's doing she's caught up. for the last couple weeks she'll make the determination how best to communicate. eye i think it comes down to get out the vote, why she's been going where she's going. >> let me ask you about that. she did an interview with bret baier, parody on "snl." >> "saturday night live." >> yeah. >> and the question is, what she should be doing for these next two weeks. she's going to be doing an interview on nbc i believe on tuesday from washington, d.c. where do you believe she needs to be over the next call it 12 or 14 days? >> the swing states. period, end of story. get out the vote in the swing

states. if it's a difference of 5,000 people in any given state you can bring 5,000 people in a rally or go out and be where there's undecided and try to get them in the door and talk to them that's where i would be and that's what she's doing and had me and others going out to, you know, phoenix and grand rapids and lacrosse and milwaukee, going out and talking in my case to small businesses. >> mark, what do you think this happens if this is as close as the polls suggest it will be? if it comes down to a matter of a few thousand or ten thousand votes over these key districts that you just talked about and some very key swing states what happens? >> what happened in 2020. >> yeah. >> same thing in 2020. >> and how does that play out? >> i don't know. obviously, there's a greater than zero chance that something crazy happens, but i hope not. and, you know, if donald trump is going to claim it's not a

fair election and, you know, do whatever he does, at least he's not in office with the power to, you know, try to force a january 6th-like situation. >> if it's a close vote, and it goes to donald trump, will democrats behave the same? >> yeah. i'm not a democrat. you know, i won't be happy but i'll accept it. i don't care what democrats do. i don't care what independent or republicans do. i just want what's best for the country. >> i have a question for you, it's a bit of a counter factual and something i've always high poth stized about. over the weekend nate silver came out with a list of reasons he believes former president trump may win now and one of the reasons he says explicitly as one of his 22 or 24 reasons is, elon and silicon valley have created a permission structure for other wealthy elites to advocate for trump explicitly and provide a new base of money and cultural influence and my hypothetical counter factual is

do you believe that the biden administration could have changed all of this? i have a -- >> of course. yeah. the answer yes. >> a massive mistake made about three and a half years ago on behalf partially i imagine of the unions, and that that moment did a tremendous disservice to them and that they have never not only recovered from that, but never even tried to recover from it. >> yeah. agreed. between elizabeth warren and bernie sanders and joe biden the three worked together closely and they believed in, you know, the progressive approach. and i think that hurt them with silicon valley. i think the fact that joe didn't talk to those folks either was a negative. those days are behind us and kamala harris is not joe biden and shows it, her tax rates are different, her approach to health care is different. there's just so many differences. i think the biggest challenge that they've had and to a certain extent continues to have, they're not great sales

people and more about policy where trump is the exact opposite. he'll sell sell sell, the salesperson that will say anything to try to close the deal whether it's true or not, and, you know, when i talk to the harris campaign they have a policy group that's going to drill down on everything. and that's just night and day different from what you're seeing from the trump side. >> do you think if she wins, that she could actually have a relationship and embrace elon musk? >> 100%, yes. i've had that conversation. >> by the way, you know, i'm a news guy, we all want the interview. i would like to see her -- >> literally i've had the conversation with her team. >> i would like to see her do x and a conversation with elon musk. that would be a fascinating -- >> i'll tell you, not kamala specifically but her team. i can try to facilitate a meeting with elon and they didn't trust the fact that he wouldn't go on x and say something to distort the purpose of the meeting. >>, but you have advocated for it? >> for sure.

why not. she's been clear. she's going to put a republican on her -- in her -- i'm spacing on the word -- going to work with republicans and be open minded. not an ideologue. that's the key. she talks about it all the time. she wants to be a problem we've talked about cut ugh the deficit. we've talked about using technology to increase efficiency. we've talked about machine learning and applications with data. she's not saying, no, that's not how we do things. never has she said that. she's like, mark, what is the best way to solve this problem? she may not always agree with me, but she's open to it. >> one of the critiques of former president trump is around tariffs. and yet, it doesn't -- it's not clear that that, unto itself, is landing, if you will. >> it's not. >> i wonder why. i ask because, by the way, if you remember, even last week, president trump was out there

saying that he had killed deer from going to mexico, which, you know, was -- >> he lied. yeah, he lied. >> like, factually untrue. >> that's who he is. >> yet, that does -- the question is, why doesn't that land? >> because they're so used to it. he's pinocchio and his nose is so long, it looks like a rope. it doesn't matter. no one pays attention to what he actually says. he says something, and then joe comes in and explains what he really means. it's unfortunate with the tariffs. that's part of what i was doing in phoenix. >> you're talking about me again? you're out on the campaign trail. i'm not -- >> i know. >> i have to be here because we book you and let you talk for a half hour without anyone, you know, opposed to you. >> joe, come on. oppose me. joe, oppose me. >> i'm not out campaigning. i'm not a surrogate. i don't know who i'm voting for, mark. >> good. you know, joe, you know what? if you don't know who you're

voting for, that's a great thing. i think that's beautiful. i don't know if that -- >> good. thanks. i mean, mark, we let you go on for a half hour. you're not -- maybe you will change someone's mind. i don't know. i've heard it all before. >> i've sat there in meetings, and i know i have. i sat in a meeting in phoenix, and i tell the campaign, i don't want to talk to people who already are voting for kamala. i want to talk to people who think they're voting for trump or are undecided. >> you look at twitter. i mean, i'm -- >> the question -- >> i've been respectful and kind to you. >> don't be, joe. i don't need you to be. be rude. i'll take any questions you want to throw at me. >> to that point, one last thing. >> sure. >> on twitter, what -- or x, what do you make of what comes up in the algo? i ask because joe is right insofar as if i go to my for you page or what have you, yeah, there's a lot of -- a lot of critique. but the question is, is that because the site is an eecho

chamber? >> of course it is. i use it a lot because people don't agree with me there. i used to be more on threads, but everybody agrees with me there. that's why i go to x. and yes, the algorithm reinforces -- it's an echo chamber, but also realize, it wasn't all that long ago that elon said he was going to republish the latest version of the algorithm. guess what? he has not done that. his choice, his company. he gets to do whatever he wants on x. but yeah, i'm on x all the time, so i can argue with people and try to convince one, two, three, four, 5,000 voters over the course of the next two weeks, because that could be the difference in the election. i don't care if people are yelling at me, screaming at me, calling me names. elon calls me a racist, a turd. >> you must -- if trump's got a nose that's as long as a road, your skin, from what i see people say to you, must be as thick as from boston to l.a.

and that's fine. but you obviously enjoy what you're doing, and god bless you. you got a billion -- you're still going to have a g-650 after this election, so what the hell? >> yeah. you know, it's what's best for the country. that's what i care about. let me just add. if trump wins, last time when he won, he asked me to help on health care, on ppe, i sat with peter navarro. i'll do the same thing. i'm america first. first, you know, that's a wrong way to put it. i am what's best for this country, country over party, country over all. i just think kamala harris, without any question in my mind, is the better candidate and the better president for this country. >> okay. mark cuban, thank you for joininushig ts morning. appreciate it. >> thanks, guys. >> "squawk box" is coming right back after this. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust.

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♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. coming off some all-time highs, sex straight weekly wins for the s&p. that's the longest streak of the year. we go into a week of some heavy-hitter industrial earnings. futures are soft. our road map begins with rally mode, though