see if momentum can continue >> yeah, especially on a day when the nasdaq was slightly higher, in large part because another record high for nvidia, as investors continue to focus on picks and shovels of a.i. >> yeah. well, with all that, we've got tomorrow to look ahead to. >> that does it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight up, up, and away the yield on the ten-year is up 60 basis points since the fed cut rates last night what is behind this rise, and will the ten-year yield keep climbing we'll debate that. plus, delivering a sell. we'll break down the downgrade of u.p.s. by barclays. the stock's been lagging fedex, and analysts think things are about to get worse. later, inside netflix's roaring run. why the chart master think it's time to bail on the builders and there's one fewer problem at

boeing, but does that mean it's time to buy? i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, carter worth, steve grasso and guy adami. closing back on 4.2% they are up more than 50 basis points since the fed cut last month. the average 30-year fixed hitting its highest level since late july. this as markets think there's chances of no change from the fed in november. so, what does this sharp spike in yields mean for the broader market, what is this telling us, guy? >> hmm, well, i mean, if you watched this show over the years you know i'm sort of the half empty person on the desk, so -- label me a pessimist and typically it's one of two things it can be the economy is on strong footing, things are going well, lrating are going higher. that should be extraordinarily bullish for the market the flip side is, there's an election coming up, either

candidate is going to be inflationary, and by the way, $15.5 trillion worth of treasuries we have to sort of fund over the next 3 1/2 years, and there's a debt problem, as well and it's not just u.s. rates, by the way. you're seeing the same thing in germany and some other countries, so, i look at it as maybe it's a function of the fact that the economy is okay, it's more of a fact there's a debt problem and the market's come to that conclusion. >> you've been half empty and half full, so, where do you stand? >> i'm not anywhere as half empty as guy, i can tell you that what's interesting, and i -- carter's the guy i want to listen to tonight, because he's probably the guy a year ago that said, whatever, they're doing what they're doing, they're not doing as much as everybody said, but i'll say, i think people underestimated the u.s. economy, since we got that payroll number in september, excuse me, in august, july, i think people have realized they were very offsides in terms of where they took rates, how quickly they took rates rates didn't belong at 3.55 on the ten.

everything we know about both candidates for the next president of the united states is there's nothing they're doing that's deficit friendly. i think there's persistent inflation out there. you get into a dynamic around the u.s. dollar and what we're also seeing in terms of central bank differentials around the world. our fed actually may still be one of the more hawkish central banks out there, so, the world of kind of fed gradualism, cash carry, which i don't know we necessarily have -- let's put it this way, this is someone that's been all over the map, but out there today, said, i do think there's a dynamic that rates could go slower in terms of what they're going to do. so, consistent with that messaging. that all adds up to the kind of day you got today. also, when we have the vix persistently high, near 20, close to 21, whatever that number is, i think that's part of the market's anxiety, that rates could be a big deal. >> obviously earnings season is upon us, as well so, that aspect going on >> ultimately, we know there's no relationship, and despite what anyone might think, any of us -- there is no relationship

between the price of shares and the earnings of share on a one-month basis, six-month basis, 12-month basis. the real issue is, we jumped from 3.6 to 4.2 here in the past two years, we've been as high as 5. it might just be that it's not either good or bad, it is sort of this thing that is not -- it's 6.5, 7 is bad, 2.5, it's bad. and we keep neither doing. higher for longer, out the window, and now the olds of them cutting them again are going back to zero so, maybe that is the message, rates are in this benign environment. >> yeah, we've seen this move before, we've been at these levels before, so, what is the big deal >> they cut rates and then rates move higher, and i think it's more where guy started off with the economy is doing better. so, i think it's pricing in a better economy going forward two years -- two-year rate is fed. ten-year is economy.

so, if you think the economy is doing better, then you have higher inflation if you have higher inflation, rates move up. but to your point, car loan delinquencies, mortgage applications, are all problematic for the market so, you can believe we're going to do better in ten years, but have a problem right now with the market >> right and the thing about, when you think about relief for the consumer and the move in rates, yes, they moved higher, but a lot of these rates did not really feel that downtick that we saw when the fed cut rates, as phil lebeau has pointed out, auto loan rates are notoriously sticky usually don't feel those moves lower for a very long time credit card rate, are they below 20%? no >> never are >> unless you are out in the market getting a mortgage exactly when rates are down, you're not feeling any relief here >> not at all. and credit card rates are at a record level the average rate in the united states is now 23.4%, and the thing you have to watch, i think, delinquency rates north of 7% are the highest they've been since 2011, so -- that's

all out there, but with an s&p at an all-time high, the market doesn't seemingly care but tim is correct to point out the vix. the vix is stubbornly high one would think -- we've seen a vix, 13 1/2, 14, in benign circumstances, one would think we'd be there. we're not. maybe that speaks to just the election and some of those factors, but maybe it speaks to something else on the horizon. >> we're saying the vix is high and it's close to 20 i mean -- if you really think about it, right it's really not that high. >> not that high and it's also such a bifurcated market big tech, google, microsoft, have slumped and not made highs since july and the other things have had this huge rally, united airlines, ibm. you put it all together, call it the s&p. the structure seems kind of uneasy i would characterize it that way. >> and goldman sachs came out, saying -- >> might be stuck. >> 3% a year >> well --

>> that's quite a difference >> we've had a 62% move off of that october 13, 2022 cpi. this is one of the greatest bull markets of all time. and to expect also -- we've been able to play the dynamics around extreme fiscal acome kccommodat, monetary policy, and this secular industrial revolution of technology, semiconductors, things that people have had a chance to invest in. i was looking at a chart of caterpillar and john deere and if you look at, you know, caterpillar's kind of been stuck. john deere trades like a tech stock. if you look at a three-year cha chart, it's up three times they're doing things better, i'm not leaning on them in terms of being critical of their business, i just think that this is what we've seen in this stock market it wouldn't be extraordinary, we have seen extraordinary moves that sometimes have not been related to fundamentals, but the market itself. >> when you make a call out ten

years, it's -- who is going to remember the call, if he's wrong? right? i mean, making call on ten years. but historic little -- >> itimpults inside knowledge that nodoesn't exist. you can see out three the, four months if you can see what's happening in 2027, you might want to keep that to yourself but it's the nature of wall street >> and historically, markets go up on average 10% or roughly there abouts, 10%, 11%, since the beginning of markets, on average. >> 3% a year, just for inflation. >> yeah, yeah. >> depending on where inflation is going to be, you could be done >> we had that period. >> nobody is going to say, david, you know, move 5%, you know, nobody, but directionally, it's a significant call to say the markets are basically not going to do much for the next ten years, right >> and this gets a little bit

back to the comments on the vix that we just had a pre-2007-2008 financial crisis, the vix that i grew up in in the markets was high teens, low 20s for sure, and someone investing in overseas markets, those were more volatile we were trying to bet a 25 vix, and so, i do think that the whole world is different when you've compressed down risk, equities should trade higher >> for more on the market, let's bring in julian emanuel. slipped in here. >> there he is >> great to see you. >> great to be here. >> you make the point, it's been a tough bull market. everybody wants to find a reason to not believe this one. it's too good to be true why do you think that is >> well, the -- first of all, because when you think of the set of circumstances, right, you threw everything you had at the pandemic, then you had, you know, sort of a speculative top, and then all of a sudden, the

fed was doing what we knew they had to do in response, and the speed with which they did it, you know, here we are, we're still the economy that's the envy of the world, and you're actually now at a point where at 24 times trailing, you're very, very expensive, that's probably why you saw that note this morning from our competitor, but what we would say to that is, tells us the wall of worry is still very, very intact. and if you think about it, yeah, the vix is low compared to maybe longer run history, but actually, if you think about the inertia of the markets the last several weeks, the vix is high, and it should be, in front of probably one of the biggest unknowns we've been facing, certainly in the last four years, if not longer >> carter's quick and correct to point out that we've seen 4.2% in ten-year a number of different times, both up and down, but the move from 3.6 to here has been fast

we spend eight minutes trying to figure what it's about what do you think it's about >> i think a lot of the people we talk to are surprised because basically the thought was the move by the fed to cut 50 bay situation points should underwrite the long end, and, in fact, when you're doing that, and the economy is not going into recession in the next several quarters, when, as you mentioned earlier, both candidates are going to blow out the budget deficit, and now, in the last few weeks, there's a potential that china could at least top exporting disinflation, that's what you get in the long end. >> julian, we're going into year-end, we have an election year cycle, so, there's a lot of movements that none of us are going to be able to describe the reason for them. you have new money to put to work do you just go with technology at this point -- i believe in fragmenting it out with crypto, emerging markets, technology not making it complicated.

where do you put the money right now going forward? >> so, equity strategists, we'll give you the equity strategy point of view. we love what we call the fed rate cut playbook. you go back to 1970, you look at all the rate cutting cycles, there's a very pronounced outperformance in the year after the fed starts cutting from info tech, surprise surprise. small caps, which might be a bit counterintuitive, considering how much they took it on the chin today, but also, barbelled by the more defensive sectors, consumer staples and health care so, to us, that's sort of the sensible way that will help you ride out if you get some turbulence, which, obvious, if there's a contested outcome, you're likely going to get some. >> is there concern that technology -- information technology outperformed on the way into the cutting cycle, and so may have pulled forward gains? i mean, past cycles, did we see this sort of outperformance, as well >> we did, again, a lot of that

owes to the secular gains over the last, call it 40 years in info tech, but again, it also calls up this point, me lace is a, at 24 times trailing, if we get a quote unquote cleanout come in the election that everyone says, okay, this -- >> somebody won. >> this is what happened, and we get a meltup, which is very, very possible, that's the kind of situation where particularly in info tech, you'll be borrowing from next year's gains, but i think, again, we have to acknowledge the fact that one of the very bright spots today is the leader in the a.i. revolution, made another new all-time high. very positive. >> speaking of that, since you are speaking of nvidia, right, if you look at, of course, index versus the equal weight, the one that's going the widest spread is the semiconductor index versus the equal weight. the sox, the most important element within the biggest sector, tech being 32%, the sox

is up almost 20%, 25% year to date, and the equal weight is up five so, you have more bifurcation within the most important area that's sort of the unfragile part of it. where are you on semis do you think that dispersion is starting to send a message that this area of the market that has been so good won't actually be a good play in 2025? >> so, what we think it's saying is, really, just doubling down on the importance of a.i. as a driver of semis, and we saw that in the recent earnings reports, you know, from one foreign maker, who is light on a.i., and had difficult earnings, particularly selling into china, and another, where the a.i. story continues to be robust we do think that's the theme going forward, and again, if we're going to get a meltup, and i would remind everyone that bull markets end in one or two ways either a recession comes upon, we don't see that now, or you

get the sort of the emotional meltup phase, and we haven't had that, either, and i would suggest, again, that those names, the a.i.-centric names within semis, will lead a meltup, because they've lead for two years. >> all right, julian, great to see you. >> thank you >> julian's got great insight, and i don't think what he's saying is that a 43% move in semis and a 73% move in -- year to date and a 73 year over year isn't an extraordinary move. i think what's going to happen here, forget looking out ten years, i think, you know, drawing on where a lot of the managers have not made the call that this was going to be a great year there was a lot of reasons to be bearish. i think the next two months, from -- boo to santa claw rally, that's right -- >> boo meaning halloween. >> halloween, yeah >> i think you've set yourself up for a dynamic, because the fed is -- they may not be as agreszive in cuts rates, but they're not a factor for you right here, and it sets up for a

big year-end rally >> let's get to nvidia, hitting another all-time high today. jumping 4%, bringing its market cap above $3.5 trillion for the first time ever. it is now just $80 billion behind apple it last topped the iphone maker in july, when it briefly became the biggest company in the world. but just keeps powering higher, guy. >> we had been mentioning june 20th, and actually, that was right to mention it in the weeks or days after, because you saw what happened on august 5th. i mean, the stock went down almost 38% obviously, it's recouped the entire thing, and now with today's close, the june 20th pattern is out the window. now it feels like march, april, may, when it started the next leg higher with all that said, the stock has gotten itself more expensive. $3.5 trillion now ish or thereabouts. the question is, are we in a new sort of trading range? and do we continue to move higher into earnings middle of

november >> the dispersion, half the stocks inindex were down today a breakout is a breakout, right? so, one would have to respect that and in principle, nvidia has just now exceeded its high of about five months ago presumption is higher. >> are you kicking yourself, grasso >> yes >> how does it feel? >> not so great. >> in one word so, this didn't give me the chance this is the problem with trading stocks when you have an idea, you sort of fall in love with your premise and your chart and your levels and i waited for my level, the level didn't happen, got away from me, i'm sitting on my hands. >> well, i think if you -- speak to some of carter's comments on the divergence, bifurcation, look at amd on the year, they were supposed to be a distant, but at least a second choice here in the a.i. trade so, they're not all created equal. i still think taiwan semi is the one you want to own.

coming up, a delivery downer on u.p.s shares lower after a bearish call on wall street. the challenges facing that name, next. and disney laying out a timeline for bob iger's succ successor. what all the changes could mean, when "fast money" returns. back in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc. moving from idea to reality. in every single race, we pursue our peak potential. our people fuel that pursuit. our technical and operations teams collaborate in smartsheet to get the car to the track. we don't focus on results. we focus on what leads to results. with smartsheet supporting our operations, the results will come.

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yeah, look at that. -honestly. someone get a helmet on this guy. xfinity internet customers, ask how to get an unlimited line free for a year. plus, a free samsung galaxy s24 fe. welcome back to "fast money. let's get to our call of the day. u.p.s. down after being mooufd moved to underweight before barclays 8% lower than today's close. the sell is very rare, of course, on wall street, and a key point is losing amazon, and just the rivalry that amazon presents with its own delivery fleet. >> hasn't been the same since i worked there, number one stock has been awful for two years now. may think it's an ec thing, 80% of it is a u.p.s.

thing. they're just not basically operating all that well, as opposed to fedex you have to admire a call two days or so before they report earnings with a sell rating, $120 would make it a multi-year low and be a new 52-week low. so, good for them for the call, and it feels like it's coming to fruition >> you look back, five-year performance, fedex is up 70%, u.p.s. is is up 13 .5%. when you make a call like that, past performance is usually indicative of future potential they also don't have the headwind of the unions on the fedex side that u.p.s. does, so, that's been a huge thing in the last year for a lot of corporations >> the thing that you started with, it's very rare to get a sell rating. 500 stocks in the s&p, average stock has 20 analysts covering, that's 10,000 ratings, and 500 of them are sell wall street never puts sell, because you lose access, you can't get the banking deal so, they --

>> whoa, whoa, you're trying to say that there's a correlation between good research and banking deals. >> never, never. so, the point is, this is a bold thing, right, for a stock that's still down some 43% from its 52-week high and all-time high and there's something wrong with the business, clearly. stock's been going down for three years, the market's gone up can't be good. i think all the honor to it. >> what's interesting about u.p.s. is, this is the same -- we could have been talking about fedex two-year- years ago one of the most sophisticated management teams, do they even get their business and there was the dynamic for bringing change. i think part of the story is that fedex and u.p.s. have gone from a place where they had total pricing power where -- they just don't have the same dynamic. some of this is cyclicality, some of this is secular. i think u.p.s., it's a bold call it would have been a more bold call before the stock fell 20% i'd probably be a buyer. there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next

>> succession plans under way at disney, again. the media giant laying out a new timeline to name ceo bob iger's replacement. and a former wall street exec just named chairman. what it could all mean for disney's future, next. plus, a.i. under fire, as news outlets go after one generative a.i. search company the claims they're making, and what it could mean for the entire artificial intelligence space. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

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welcome back to "fast money. disney laying out its latest succession timeline. the company will name bob iger's replacement in early 2026. >> write that down >> and james gorman will replace mark parker as chairman starting in january iger originally served also ceo from 2005 until early 2020 the stock skyrocketed in that time he turned over the reins to bob chapek, but the stock dropped during his time on the job iger returned in november 2022 shares up 5% since his contract is set to expire at the end of 2026, so, there will be that year of transition

taking a long time, but we are there. and gorman is looked upon as an excue or the he does his job and had successful succession plan recently >> no question you think about the next few quarters in disney, it's hard to really understand where the catalysts are. there's very little to get excited about, and barring some kind of an acquisition that i think is going to be risky, die vest sure of espn, which at times has been a catalyst, at times we think there might be some value there the irony, dtc now valuable, park business with headwinds it took the stock from $120 to $90. this stock has been dead money for a couple of years. i feel comfortable owning it it have owned it and it's been disappointing. dtc is a very important movement >> is it fallow, carter? >> whoa. >> that's a carter word. >> yes >> it has been

so -- to say the least, a little worse than fallow. the question is, i think we can all agree, can only do three things i think sideways or up captures a lot of the odds, sort of 80%, 90%. you get stuck in the trap and there's the problem with that, that's what value traps are. >> small long? >> i think -- the chart looks very constructive at this point. in august, it looks like it bottomed, to carter's point, and to tim's point, when you look at the parks. the parks are a bigger number, but they're growing at a much slower pace than the streaming business, but there's netflix and everyone else is a distant second so, you want to talk about breaking up things and spinning off things, disney is going to have to decide, are they committed to streaming going forward? when the parks start to recover and when we do go into recession and they can figure out how to keep a lid on inflation with the prices, they're going to have to decide, are they a streaming company or a parks company

>> you look at it, i mean, you'd love to say on valuation it makes sense, and maybe at 19 times, 19 1/2 times, you can say that, but you're talking about mid-single digits, both eps and revenue growth historically, a company obviously that grew a lot better than that so, maybe it's not as cheap as it looks, number one and number two, over the last three years, a stock that's been cut in half effectively against a netflix, which is trading at all-time highs so, again, the bottom's probably in, to steve and tim's point, but i don't know how much upside there is, either. >> in terms of the ceo, can they pull off what starbucks managed to do with brian niccol? can they find that superstar because last time, they didn't do well. when i mentioned james gorman, he had an interesting succession plan at morgan stanley, and it worked out really well, he didn't lose any lieutenants, most of the time people leave, right, when they don't get the job. that didn't happen what -- maybe he can do it >> what -- what made the

starbucks ceo, what made niccol the right guy, he's a marketing guy. starbucks does appear to be a little broken when you go into those stores, it's a company with a world class brand i think for disney, it -- we saw a ceo come in that was not necessarily a media mogul, because i don't think the market wants to see that. the media business is so different, and i think the media business is a technology business and therefore, yes, content -- i don't think anyone is -- is challenging that disney's content slate and their studios is typically -- it's a fly wheel. we like to do that around here but i'd like to see someone with a tech background here. coming p,up, united health' chart, is it is the god-like what the chart master thinks. plus, is a.i. ripping off news outlets the companies going after perplexity a.i., and the copyright claims they are making "fast money" is back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back stocks pulling back after notching a six-week winning streak

the s&p with a small loss, but the nasdaq seeing a small gain, up a quarter of a percent. bit bitcoin hovering around the 70,000 level shares of netflix hitting an all-time high today on the back of its big earnings move last week that stock is up nearly 60% this year and united health rising today, continuing its rebound from its post earnings selloff. it is still 6% off its all-time highs. carter has called in the past this chart god-like, it is in his acronym for the year and you stand by god-like as a des degrip or the? >> well, god-like is a long duration-based thing >> sounds long duration. >> sounds long-term. you could have one game, one show, but god-like is a duration-based thing if you look at unh versus the s&p, it's up eight fold.

it's double the performance of the nasdaq 100 this is a god-like enterprise creating god-like profits over a very long-term the issue, and we might have a chart here, is that it's gone sideways there's a comparative chart, but it's gone sideways, and now fallen back to the level in which it broke out if you keep operating your business and you can see here, on the screen, if you keep operating your business, buying back shares and expanding your footprint and working on gross margin, if you are going sideways, but the business is improving, your multiple's contracts. so, the multiple, over this past four, five years has gone from 32 to 22 ultimately, it gets so cheap that you break out of the range. we did that, we've fallen back i like it long >> i mean, the thing about united health's problems, these are problems faced by every single player in the industry, medical loss ratios, higher cost of specialty pharmaceuticals, the impact of the i.r.a. >> 100%. if you were to look at its competitors, unh is holding in

there like a champ to carter's point. and the others have fallen by the wayside. maybe there's a reason it's acquitted itself so well carter's right who is that person -- >> she watches the show. >> the longer the base, the higher in outer space. >> no outer, just space. >> i just like saying outer space. so, maybe fill back to 560, but looks okay to me. thelishers to su perplexity over what it calls a massive amount of illegal copying. "the new york times" sent a cease and desist to the a.i. outlet they're asking the company to stop using its articles. kate rooney joins us here on-set >> k-roo is here >> clap her in >> it's great to be here in person so, this perplexity lawsuit is a big deal kind of the latest in tech versus the publishers.

so, i would also say in the meantime, they're in the middle of raising this $500 million round. $9 billion valuation so, they're trying to raise a ton of cash here, which is going to be necessary if they're going to foight these lawsuits. newscorp is seeking damages, as well so, they're saying $150,000 per violation. so this could be really expensive to fight it could be expensive settlement, if they get damages here the numbers could go up and up people i've been talking to in the valley especially are saying the companies with the largest cash pile here are going to be the winners. openai just raised $150 billion valuation from their latest round. the winners in a.i., the startups are going to be the ones who are able to raise the most cash and we think of the compute spending, we think of the chip spending, but also potentially the legal spending going forward, and i think this is really indicative of some of the battles that not only perplexity, but you'll see openai, others either strike partnerships or need to fight back on the legal side

>> and we've seen some of the partnerships where the a.i. search engines will pay out and have a deal for a certain amount of time. and i get the point about, you know, having the biggest cash pile being able to address some of these problems, but doesn't this change the economics of this whole business, if you are then bound to pay all sorts of companies money over periods of year to use their material to answer queries and also train models >> yes and think of how many publishers are out there. it absolutely changes the margins. it changes the attractiveness, i would think, of a $9 billion company. and you're right, there's been a lot of partnerships struck newscorp has a deal with openai, far e for example. one of the responses from their legal team is, we would rather partner, we don't want to see these companies -- we'd rather woo than sue so, you are likely to see more -- >> rather loan and own is something else you here out there, which is never true >> they would rather strike the partnerships early they want to be compensated.

i have the case in front of me they say, basically, that not only are they using their copyrighted material, but things like hallucinations, it's hurting the brand, because you've got "the wall street journal" within this umbrella, they're coming up with answers that aren't necessarily accurate so, that's another thing they mention in here. a lot of implications. and potentially could set some sort of, you know, statute for other companies. i think this will be a big case to watch and kind of how this plays out, how perplexity handles it they have some big backers, so, it will be a case to watch here. >> kate, great to see you. kate rooney. for more, let's bring in gene munster. what's your take on all this you continue to be a big a.i. believer in the long-term, but even in the short-term, does this change the economics? >> i mean, melissa, the short-term, the economics for these large language models is horrendous and so, i think it changes it from bad to worse, in the short-term i just want to put some quick context around those numbers

right now, openai pays newscorp about $50 million, that's with an m, a year, for their licensing agreement. they're going to do about $4 billion in revenue this year and $11 billion next year, so, i mean, it's measurable, obviously, that hits their bottom line, but as i mentioned, they're losing a lot of money. google's search business is a $200 billion a year business and if you take the view, which i have, that ultimately these large language models can be multiple -- you can have multiple companies that are the size of google search business, if you're paying 3$300 million, the licensing deal, it's a hit, but it really doesn't make a huge difference down the road. >> for a company like a google, we were just sort of talking about how they were now selling ads, putting ads and sponsored content next to a.i. search results.

that changes this whole thing, too, because the less robust the search results, the answers to the queries, the less you can sell advertising, i would assume >> true, but i think there's going to be this blurred line for consumers about, what is a search, and what is a prompt ultimately, is that if consumers go to google and if the search diminishes, but the generative result, kind of that a.i. result improves, i think people, if ultimately they get what they want, then that google wins, that's why they've taken this approach they want to maintain their eyeballs, the almost 3 billion people a year that use -- a day that use a google product. so, i think it's -- tradeoff between search needs to be taken in the context of what's happened in the generative results. and they're doing a really good job. they just started in may, adding generative -- generative search to it, and this is going to be the first full quarter, the september quarter, of those results, and so, partial answer to your question we're going to

hear a lot about that, because that dynamic, when they report next week. >> gene, it's tim. help us understand how you read the valuation. people are hearing about $8 billion on $15 billion analyzed sales. you're someone that sees the big picture. that's part of what you talk to us about often, with some other companies. does this number make sense? should it make sense does it matter $520 million valuation at the start of the year. >> for perplexity, this one's a little bit tougher for me, because the valuation, to me, it's what's the cost to play in this larry ellison said it's $100 billion to be kind of a large language model, that's what you need to raise, so, you look at the $6 billion at openai, you need to be raising in chunks of billions, not millions and understand that it's a big raise for a private company that's moving quickly, but they're going to get acquired.

they just -- they're just up against too many other big guns here to try to get to those coveted four, five spots of the llm landscape. >> it was interesting it says it makes the economics to go from horrible or even worse so, having to pay for content, does that just make the smaller players go away faster, and really puts the a.i. game into the hands of big technology, which is what, you know, lawmakers for what they're worth, are really concerned about. >> well, they're going to have their hands full for two reasons. number one, these big companies are just going to continue to take share and take a piece of this a.i., and as i mentioned, horrible in the near term for the economics, but long-term, these are going to be some impressive economics, and ultimately, what is the value of making information knowledge available at a low marginal cost i think there's a lot to that.

and so, these big tech companies, they're just going to keep getting bigger and bigger i thought there was going to be kind of a rotating out now since a.i.'s come out, it's pretty clear i want to be clear, it's -- a.i. is going to be a big thing for those companies. >> all right, gene, great to see you, thank you >> thank you >> gene munster. how do the charts look, carter >> it's all over the place we have dispersion issue, and so, it's a classic example of, you have to be in the right one, but relative strength has to be respected at all times it's usually right to back away -- >> all right, now, coming up >> who played the music? who dropped the music? >> i could have been at fault. >> rarely. >> whatever. we're playing it now lovely, isn't it cracks in the homebuilders' foundation what the chart master sees in the technicals. plus, boeing and its machinist union reaching a tentative contract deal that could mean an end to the strike. the details that are getting everyone to the table. back in two. this

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welcome back to "fast money. h homebuilders getting hit hard in today's pull-back. names like kb home, lennar, toll brothers, down 3% or more. far underperforming the broader market the chart master says there is

more pain to come what do you see? >> well, surely, it's rate sort of influenced, of course, but let's look at the charts three identical charts, and we can just do them together. this is the chart with no drawings, no lines, no annotations, no judgments. let's put something on there well, we have three distinct rallies. >> look at those >> look at those they're not conclusions yet, but little arrow there that suggests, right? >> yeah, yeah. >> we're about to break trend for the third time in this two, three-year period where we've had drawdowns. it's the same chart. but were we simply to get to the line, that would take us down 15%. that's perfectly normal. definition of uptrend is that it's punctuated by countertrend moves. which are down they're healthy. if you have itb or homebuilder, take some profits. >> tim

>> i tell you, i've thought that for the last, you know, certainly as we go to the place where interest rates were starting to come down, they got too much of that love. you priced in the numbers, and we know what the demand side of the story is, offered at least some incentives and get people through the financing valuation's really never the

story, it's a parabolic move, and if rates continue to go higher, the unemployment rate starts to reaccelerate higher, you're going to have trouble owning these stocks. >> does toll like any better than the rest? >> the one that really stands out is nvr that's been the biggest long-term winner that's more of a land holdings, but it's in the index. coming up, boeing's workers strike may be nearing an end what finally got the uonni to the signing table. "fast money" is back right after this

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welcome back to "fast money. boeing and its machinist union finally reaching a tentative agreement on a new contract, which, if approved on wednesday, would mean an end to the costly long strike that hindered boeing's production. the proposal includes 35% pay increases, a higher signing bonus, a higher 401(k) contribution this would be a step in the right direction, tim, for sure, but it's got a lot of other issues to deal with. >> a lot of other issues and ultimately, the -- i think there's still maybe some push-back here but the fact of the matter is, this was the latest in maybe the straw that forced them to market and forced that concept of an equity raise

and something that the market was able to quickly digest this is a company that's has levers to pull i like the story i've liked the story the other problems remain, but it does get back to delay, but you get to a place where this company will generate free cash flow again >> for the first time in awhile, the market action suggests that maybe the worst is over. not necessarily in terms of news headlines, but in terms of stock performance, we're going to know a lot more on wednesday. i think they report before the bell this week i think you stay long this stock. i thought that for awhile. feels like it might are turned >> prior to the strike, you started saying that, you know, you -- called boeing wrong and giving up on boeing, so, what has changed except that they have raised money, or is that the main reason -- >> that and the performance on the back of it the market is seemingly discounting a lot now, and the fact that -- listen, i get the tape was sort of squishy today, but the market actually -- the stock's performed over the last couple of trading sessions >> all right, up next, final trades

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time for the final trade let's go around the horn tim? >> we just went through top ten worst songs of the '80s. you can figure what they are online et, newenergy transfer. >> carter? >> precious medals silver, best play of ll. >> stephen >> did you see bitcoin fighting back for its life? it was paddled back to life. btc gray scale minis >> for those of you out there

who won't go to the internet, guy what is the number one worst song >> "we built this city." it's an awful song >> we've said that many times. >> new york has been starved for a champion we got one last night in the form of the new york liberty congratulations. and karen finer mann gx. >>o liberty. thank you for watchingliberty. thanks for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc newsom tweet me at #madmentions i know bonds are the most boring subject imaginable but the bond market matters. bond yields have bee