the industrials are 0.01 of a percentage higher, 42,937. there's the s&p turning negative by a little bit. nasdaq higher by one-tenth of 1%. >> still turning green in afternoon. >> "closing bell" starts right now. thanks so much welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner here at the new york stock exchange. we begin with the markets. they are attending a turn around in the final stretch the score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. what was mostly a down day has come around a bit n fact, we are positive on the nas and dow albeit slightly even as yields remain elevated today and that remains a story to follow. there is the ten year at 4.20, energy, consumer staples, tech helping the markets out today and microsoft is leading from the mega caps along with amazon

and meta good days there. ver on, 3m and intel are the biggest drags on the dow as we begin this last hour of trade. coming up in a big we would have an interview with former fed vice chair rich clarida. try to figure out where rates are going to go from here. he will opine with us in just a bit. it takes us to our talk of the tape with key earnings and the election in front of these markets what is the best way to position right now we will ask lauren goodwin of new york life investments. everybody is trying to figure this out, what the best positioning is with yields backing up, election a couple weeks from today, tech earnings next week. what are you feeling >> well, i think it's important for investors to keep in mind that underneath all of the risks and changes we are coming off of a q3 economy that was way above trend growth that's a ballast to support for the equity market that i think can get it through this

pre-election time period there's no economy problem and that's really important. as you pointed out, though, our view on risks is that as we get closer to the election what might be the biggest risk to the equity market is a rates problem. so expectations that spending, inflation, growth might be higher than the market expects are actually the down side view for the equity market. >> so even if rates are going up for the right reason you think it could be a problem if they get above a certain level? i have some firms today saying look out for 4.5%, maybe even 5%. >> yeah, on the ten year i think 5% is really the go/no go line when it comes to the equity market but when i think about the economy really more of like a fed funds rate of 4% if the fed is able to cut a couple more times i do think that that allows for cycle extension, provides a really nice balance between little extra oomph for borrower health but you still have an investment rate that's attractive for those that are investing, you still

have an economy that's chugging along. that's a really nice goldilocks level. if we get to a policy rate that stops before 4% that's where i think 2025 starts to look a little more precarious. >> do we need to start planning for a so-called reflation trade like paul tudor jones told andrew ross sorkin this morning on "squawk box" that he was doing? in the context of that i want you to listen to what he said ptj did about one particular trade that he doesn't like listen >> i am clearly not going to own any fixed income and i'm going to be short the back end of fixed income because it's just completely the wrong price >> in other words, plan for the reflation trade, rates are going to continue to go up in the manner that people didn't expect, so that's what he wouldn't do. >> i have an agreement and a disagreement. >> okay. >> my agreement is that duration

is just not my favorite place to take risk. i agree that rates risk especially in the long end is absolutely there, especially when you have a binary event in the election that might drive market expectations one way or another. what i'm saying specifically is that if you have a sweep in either direction the likelihood of more government spending, more inflation risk is absolutely there so we prefer in credit taking shorter duration exposure and if you want to balance that shorter duration exposure with long duration take it in the muni curve. where i'm not 100% in agreement is to avoid credit all together. strong economy, good credit quality across the board even in high yield, certainly in the municipal and investment grade markets, you just have very low default risk and that's not -- that's not a circumstance where rates and volatility i think disrupts the medium term return potential. >> if i told you that rates were going to remain elevated and maybe they even creep higher than here but we know the fed is

cutting rates, who cares if it's slower and smaller than we once thought. economy is good, atlanta gdp 3.4, at least now, and there are a lot of people predicting animal spirits are coming in the m&a market which has been dormant for a while. isn't that enough to overcome whatever risks are out there >> it could be very close to enough i think that it's important that the policy rate moves a little lower from here because it gives borrowers a breath of relief, allows the cycle to extend, but that is an environment where if rates have come off just a little bit, even if they're still let's say moderate for a moderate amount of time, that's an environment where historically credit and equity have performed well in public and private markets. that's an incredibly constructive view for the markets moving forward the one thing i will caution, a conversation i'm having constantly with investors is if that's a relatively constructive outlook then i will just wait until after the election, i'm not going to do much, i'm not going to make much allocation change even into 2025.

that's where i caution investors after a couple of years of higher than average growth, much higher than expected -- much higher than average equity returns, a year of good returns for both equity and credit might actually feel not as great as it's felt. so there is still an impetus, a catalyst for change in allocation that we think is important. >> you buy into the argument that, you know, valuations at 22.5 or wherever they are, they're too rich to expect any sort of meaningful real returns over the next few years. a couple arguments have been made on that note that just given where the valuation of the market is, that you're going to have a problem with really good returns for the next handful of years perhaps. >> i don't buy the valuation argument on its own but i do buy the idea that in order to see a step change in valuations from here you would need to see potentially a new catalyst for activity so what is that new catalyst for

activity after we've seen a lot of capital intensity around the ai trade already i think the answer to that at least in part is that we're seeing the broadening of that trade into energy and infrastructure and utilities and i think we will see the further broadening of that real productivity inducer into the corporate application phase this have technology. i think there is an opportunity for let's call it average equity returns over the next three to five years that's a good outcome, it's just going to feel very different from the only tech driven much more than average equity gains of the last couple of years. >> are you concerned at all where valuations are i ask you that question because we got our hands today on david ion horn's most recent investor letter put out a week ago. he said -- and i'm quoting -- it is by many measures the most expensive stock market that we have seen since the founding of green light. he also goes on to notice what warren buffett has been doing or

maybe in some respects what he hasn't been doing. both in the fact that he's sold a bunch of stock and he's been sitting on a mountain of cash to which mr. ion horn says, quote, these stock sales more likely express a long term view that right now is not a great time to have a lot of equity exposure and that the opportunity set is expected to be better at some point in the not so distant future what do you think about that >> here is where i agree with that perspective, it's gotten more and more challenging not just in the public markets but especially with the way that the public markets have become more concentrated it's gotten really challenging to find opportunities for a value add. these are companies that are so big that enter the markets after so many stages of value add that i understand the concern that investors have about how much more can you really pull out of that system from here? and the answer to that is where are you going to see the innovation in productivity and

where are the areas of the market where value add might be gleaned for investors. there is private equity where opportunities exist, i think for investors that are really concerned about valuations taking some risk off the table from equity, playing in the credit markets where, again, i see really constructive quality opportunities -- >> i mean, are you talking about like alternatives -- when you talk about private equity and private credit, a week ago we were sitting out at beverly hills at a conference where it's all about alts and the idea that you are going to get better risk adjusted returns over the next five to ten years from areas outside the equity market, private equity, private credit, hedge funds, whatever you want to put in the basket of alts. >> what we're seeing in the public markets is that small caps, small companies which aren't frankly very small are increasingly unprofitable. that doesn't mean there aren't good opportunities in small caps, i think there are, you just have to be incredibly selective. that's still an area of the

market, again, relatively large companies, if you think about the american promise of capitalism and value creation it's not happening at the same extent that it might have been 15, 20 years ago we're looking at markets that have broadened the opportunity to take some of that risk in let's say the middle market or lower middle market where there are quality opportunities, value creation opportunities to be had i think there is a case for pairing large cap u.s. tech with lower middle market private equity the challenge for investors is understanding the liquidity profile you have. >> 100%. >> and understanding the quality profile that you have. so private equity is equity, it's risky return -- >> well, it's a liquid for, you know, for investors need to consider as you say the difference between the kinds of investments they're used to making which are highly liquid versus more illiquid investments that you frequently find in alts. >> absolutely. one way to think about it is most investors don't need 100% of their portfolio to be 100%

liquid all of the time unless you have a kid going to college orren expense you're looking forward to that isn't your profile. many investors can handle a bit of illiquidity, it's a different exposure and risk profile than many investors are used to understanding the asset class and what you're getting into is incredibly important it is risky. >> i think we're going to do our best in the weeks and months ahead to try to educate people on what else is out there beyond stocks and bonds through this alternative universe we're learning so much about and where the money keeps flowing in let's bring in mike rode and keith learner. keith, your view on this market as some of the biggest and best investors are opining on what they think is going to happen over the next couple of weeks and beyond and how to position for it >> well, great to be with you, scott. i mean, our position really hasn't changed, our bottom line up front is we think we are in a bull market, a bull market that still has some longevity, doesn't mean there's not going

some pick cups, the line trend is still positive, the earnings season so far has been relatively good. as i mentioned in the past, one thing and we talk about the slowdown for the economy for the economy is growing too fast or yields moving higher earnings have been extremely stable as far as tech specifically, we upgraded tech back in august on the move down. overall we still have positive on tech. yes, valuations are expensive but that's where the growth s the earnings momentum is stronger than the overall market you just had a breakout out of the biggest chip stock nvidia yesterday, we think semiconductors are still in an overall positive trend net-net we're still positive what happens tomorrow or next week is hard to say, but down the line trend for this bull market in our view is still intact. >> it's funny, mike, we've been so conditioned now it feels like for so very long that the only way stocks can go up is with rates extraordinarily low.

that's just not the case that's not the case. why should rates be any lower necessarily than they are right now if you have an economy performing to the degree at which it is, even with the fed cutting interest rates >> yeah, i think you hit the nail on the head if you look at the ten year over the last month it's up 50 basis points and yet stocks are still up so i think it's less about the absolute level of rates, it's more about the direction of rates and specifically the shape of the yield curve is it upward sloping right now yes, it is why could there be fewer fed cuts going forward well, because the underlying economy remains really resilient and we're in a market where good news is good news. so if the fed cuts fewer times i think folks are looking for eight cuts between now and the end of next year, that's now down to five, but it's because

inflation may not be coming down as quickly because the economy continues to be strong that's a pretty good scenario. rates will continue to come down, the fed will be cutting, maybe not as much as folks expected a few months ago but they will be cutting, plus the election is two weeks away and historically markets have performed really well after elections. one year after elections large caps are up 18%, small caps are up 23% so there's some certainty around what the regulatory environment looks like and so, you know, ceos who may have been waiting on putting the shovel in the ground for a new project can have confidence in that. i think you're in for a very good setup in terms of the fed cutting, underlying economy remaining strong and you will have some certainty in the next couple weeks post election. >> laura, you're telling me the economy is good, the consumer still hanging in and the fed is cutting rates? you're going to try and find a

negative environment out of that mix? to some it doesn't make sense, it's as simple as that, good economy, don't fight the fed, that's it. >> yeah, i think that's more or less the case. the key risk, again -- i do think that there is a risk in the election, it's becoming a smaller risk over time, but the idea that we have a sweep in either direction is one where you have more government spending, more growth, more inflation and that might push rates higher for the right reasons more or less, but it's one in which overheating becomes a key risk for the we canity markets. that's an environment that i think could curtail some of the positive momentum we've seen in the equity market. but if we're looking at a mixed congress i think this is an economy that floats through the next couple of quarters without challenge. close to 3.5% for q3, that's more than a full percentage point real growth above our long term average some would say that that's already almost overheating as it is. >> what about, keith, the

cyclical trade the reflation trade? metals, materials, commodities, the way that paul tudor jones was talking about certain areas of the market that he's obviously going to be betting big on, as are other investors >> yeah, i think whatever scenario folks had a few weeks or months ago you have to give a little bit more can have sis that there could be a reacceleration you know, the way we're playing that more recently is we upgraded financials and as something that has been chea where if credit is going to be stronger for longer and you have to actually start to see more activity in the m&a market, i mentioned earlier, i think that will do well on the overall commodities we have to say which commodities. oil price right side more range bound, there's a lot of production coming at us as well. >> gold. gold, silver, copper >> and we're positive on gold. i mean, gold -- it's interesting. since 2011 in august when it peaked it's only up about 40%,

versus about 540% for the s&p. yes, gold has had a big move this year but if you look longer term it's breaking out of a long-term base and you have fiscal -- a lack of fiscal discipline, central banks buying gold around the world. if you have a little bit of an inflation hit i think gold does well playing financials and gold. >> you're also playing from the note we threw up on the screen as you were speaking, you think tech will regain its leadership role and maybe the catalyst is starting next week, a week from today when you start to get the mega caps reporting. >> again, we've stayed overweight tech. we upgraded our view in august on that pull back. the way i think about it simply is this, scott, when we look back at past bull markets there's typically a theme. the theme for this bull market is ai. normally when you go even towards the end of the bull market that sector stays in leadership if you go back to the 2000s, kmoodities in the em was the

leadership, in the '90s technology was the leadership. i think at this point even if there are short term moves away from it we think technology will be looser. we think that's where the structural owners growth is. we're pairing that with areas like financials, like gold and we also have an overweight towards utilities as well. that's also as an ai derivative among other factors. >> mike, i will challenge you before we go on the idea that we're going to have a tailwind for small caps because if the reflation trade or just -- if you just want to say rising yields is going to have an impact anywhere in this market, it is going to likely be small caps it's not a shock that the russell in two days that we have had this week we haven't even closed the second one out that the russell is down near 2% week to date. why? because yields are up. >> i think that's sentiment. if the fed were to come out tomorrow and say we're going to pause, it would probably set small caps back for sure and

more rate sensitive-type sectors, but you have to ask the question why are they pausing? the reality is it's because the economy has continued to be quite good and the yield curve is steepening. that we think would represent a pretty good buying opportunity it's been a really good quarter, i think over 80% of the s&p 500 companies have beaten estimates. we had a bank of california put up a really nice quarter this morning. no credit issues you may remember they acquired pac west assets about a year ago, that stock is up about 5% but still trading at one times tangible book. going back to the earlier conversation about valuations if you look at large cap growth they're trading about 30% above historical averages but small cap value 7% below so there is a lot of bad news already priced in there and if fundamentals continue to improve and you have potentially a reflation trade, there's no better way to play that, we believe, than small caps

>> do you agree with that for the last word? >> i'm not a huge fan of the small cap trade because i don't believe that we're likely to see the economy reaccelerate from here remain strong, yes, but historically we haven't seen profits and hiring really accelerate even with fed rate cuts and even without a recession. that said i do think there is an opportunity to broaden asset allocation based on where we are with good growth, the fed cutting, again, i think that there's an interesting opportunity to add exposure to credit and to broaden ex wit exposure to sectors we've heard about today, defense, energy, infrastructure, that benefit not just from some of the secular investment trends around ai but rates coming off a little bit over the next couple of months. >> everybody, thank you. lauren, good to see you. we will see you back here at post 9 to pippa stevens now for the biggest names moving into this close. >> shares of philip morris hitting a record high after reporting a beat across the board in g 3, the company also

raising guidance helped by growing demand for smoke-free products the ceo telling cnbc the margin profile for smoke-free products is much better than for traditional projects a new core is in the red, q3 beat estimates but down relative to last year as average steel prices slipped 15% year offer year the company guided towards lower net earnings for the current quarter thanks to lower realized prices and seasonally lower volumes, the stock down 5% >> pippa, thanks very much pippa stevens. we are just getting started. up next, former if he had rald reserve vice chair rich clarida is back with us, what he's expecting from fed chair powell in the next couple of weeks. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and

enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.

stocks trying to regain momentum after yesterday's losses treasury yields also climbing

again today with the ten year hitting above 4.2%, the first time in some three months. what does all of that mean for the fed's november meeting now just two weeks away. joining me to discuss is richard clarida, the former federal reserve vice-chairman, pimco's global adviser nice to see. >> you likewise. >> are you surprised by how much rates have backed up since the jumbo cut? >> well, i'm not surprised in the direction, you know, it's been our call for some time that the curve would steepen and so we've seen a steepening. you know, it's mostly driven on the real side of the curve, it's not really so much about people worried about inflation. obviously we have had some pretty good growth numbers, too, both the employment data and then the revision to the gdp data now, you know, getting it down to the basis point is tricky, but the direction of travel i think makes sense. >> do you think it's going to continue >> oh, well, i mean, i think it

will be data dependent to some extent and obviously we will hear from the fed in a couple of weeks and obviously people are positioning for various election outcomes so i will reserve judgment on that until we have a little bit more information. >> all right well, what about judgment on how many cuts we're going to get for the remainder of this year >> our baseline is still that we get another 50 basis points, 25 at each of the next two meetings you know, coming out of that september fed meeting markets sort of were getting ahead of the story a bit and pricing in more than that i think the recent data and fed speak has brought market pricing pretty much into alignment with what i think they will do. they will take it meeting by meeting. but, scott, i don't think they would have moved 50 in september if they thought that's all they needed to do i think a couple more cuts this year would still be the baseline. >> let me ask you this, why should they cut twice? especially if they're coming to

the realization, which i think is true, that the neutral rate is higher than they once thought it was and that they're not as restrictive as they thought they were, either we cite atlanta fed gdp at 3.4. >> yeah. >> i don't know whether that pans out to that number or not, but it doesn't matter. the point is that the economy is stronger than they probably thought it would be. the neutral rate is undoubtedly higher than they thought it would be why should they cut twice? >> scott, i think they've made -- they have the judgment, i think the minutes confirmed this, and indeed the chair referred to the initial 50 basis points as a recalibration. i think you are correct, there is a range of views on the committee about neutral and neutral could be higher than the -- than most people on the fed think, but i think they all agree that wherever it is it's below the current setting of the funds rate

i think there will be agreement for a pretty broad range of data for another two cuts, but i do think as we go into next year i do think they will be generally data dependent and whether we get the cuts will depend upon what happens in 2025. >> what's your own view, though, on this neutral question and what it means for policy because it's potentially significant, right >> oh, it's very significant. >> they may feel like they have the luxury of not cutting twice and they would explain it by, look, the economy is strong enough that we don't need to obviously we don't want to reaccelerate inflation in a way that would be punitive to the economy. >> sure. so my own view on neutral is, you know, that the front end of the curve, which is what the fed sets, the funds rate, i'm more or less in alignment that ultimately once inflation gets to 2 that a neutral rate of around 3% makes sense.

where i do think the world will be different than it was before the pandemic is i think we will have a steeper yield curve so i think part of the way that the bond market clears is not so much with a higher front end neutral rate but potentially a steeper yield curve on top of that >> i'm trying to figure out policymakers are gaming out the potential results of the election if you look at the different policy positions of either candidate, who knows what's going to transpire two weeks from today, but should we be more worried about inflation reaccelerating, about the deficit and the cost of funding it, the movement on the long end of the curve in an environment where you're talking about a whole host of additional tax cuts on the other side of the aisle, obviously you have tax hikes, spending concerns how should we be thinking about that how are they thinking about that

in the room? >> well, obviously fiscal policy is a critical input to an economic forecast. i do think, scott, that they've made the decision that at least for 2024 they're not going to be basing decisions this year on what may happen next year, but, again, as we move into next year the details will be important. you know, regardless of who wins the election in a couple weeks and regardless who controls congress all of the trump tax cuts or much of the trump tax cuts from 2017 will expire and that's going to lead to most of the year i think is going to be focused on the details of what gets extended and what doesn't there of course you have not only the white house but who controls the congress is relevant as well in terms of the ability to make changes to the tax code but, yeah, one of the reasons why pimco has been in the camp of thinking that we will have a steeper curve s first of all, regardless of future deficits we have existing government debt

that's 100% of gdp and someone has got to hold that debt. so that will make the curve steeper. and then depending on the path of deficits that could put some additional pressures as well so i don't think -- you're absolutely right that the powell fed would not welcome an increase in inflation from here and that's certainly -- that's certainly the case. >> before i let you go, and certainly not to wade too far into politics, but -- >> yeah. >> -- just given where some of the rhetoric has been during the campaign, some of the stories have been -- that have been written, do you worry about the independence of the fed over the next four years if former president trump is reelected >> you know, i don't i think the fed is an institution that's been around for more than 100 years. first of all, there are no vacancies on the fed right now, jay powell's term will be up in the spring of 2026, so at that point the next president, whoever he or she is, will have

a chance to start putting -- putting his own or her own people on the fed. again, those are subject to senate confirmation. the fed has a committee comprised of reserve bank presidents as well as governors. no, i think the fed institution will remain independent of politics. >> mr. clarida, i appreciate your time as always. >> thank you, scott. >> up next, top technician jeff degraaf breaks down the charts reveinone adalg tre he thinks has more room to run he will tell you what it is next if it's covid, paxlovid. paxlovid is an oral treatment for adults with mild-to-moderate covid-19 and a high-risk factor for it becoming severe. it does not prevent covid-19. my symptoms are mild now, but i'm not risking it. if it's covid, paxlovid. paxlovid must be taken within the first five days of symptoms, and helps stop the virus from multiplying in your body. taking paxlovid with certain medicines can lead to serious or life-threatening side effects

or affect how it or other medicines work, including hormonal birth control. it's critical to tell your doctor about all the medicines you take because certain tests or changes in their dosage may be needed. tell your doctor if you have kidney or liver problems, hiv-1, are or plan to become pregnant, or breastfeed. don't take paxlovid if you're allergic to nirmatrelvir, politics. ritonavir, or any of its ingredients. serious side effects can include allergic reactions, some severe like anaphylaxis, and liver problems. these are not all the possible side effects so talk to your doctor. if it's covid, paxlovid. ask your doctor today.

we are back. the cyclicals have been leading over the past few weeks, materials, industrials and financials hitting record highs. our next guest says that trade has more room to run let's bring in jeff degraaf, renaissance macro's chairman and head of technical research your bottom line call here is that you are still bullish tell me more. >> yeah, look, the trends are still -- the trends are still positive we don't have a lot of momentum, internal momentum but that's not the end of the world in fact, many times that results in a good setup because it's a consolidation. you've got a pretty unique condition which is an overbought condition in yields, those yields are in the down trend you've got an overbought condition in the dollar, the dollar is in a down trend. when those contract, in other words, respond to that overbought condition usually it's good for cyclicals and i

think important, scott, if we look historically over the last 100 years this week, today this week is the most important week or the most bullish week for the market's three month forward returns of any week in the year, right? so by investing today the next three months historically are never brighter than they are at the end of october i think that confluence of things, the overbought condition in rates, the overbought condition in the dollar and seasonals set up nicely for a cyclical trade through the remainder of the year into the first half of 2025. >> i mean, you say yields are in a down trend are they i wonder if we are in the process of recalibrating, to borrow of the word of the fed chair obviously, the way we need to think about where yields are going and the dollar as well i've got more and more people thinking that now maybe the dollar is going to strengthen depending on one potential outcome of the election, too there feels like a lot of uncertainty on both accounts

based on what happens two weeks from today. >> well, i think that's fair i mean, we measure the trends quantitatively and our systems tell us given this combination of volatility in returns and path of least resistance that those trends are, in fact, negative i think if you pushed our oscillators up from roughly this plus 3 zone into plus 5 that would start to really beg the question as to whether or not we're getting trend changes. but it's not unusual that we start rethinking kind of the underlying premise when you get overbought, that's kind of what the markets are there to do, right, is to make you question what's happening i think this is just an overbought condition in fairness i do think it is the market looking forward to the election, but i think these are overbought conditions that will probably subside as we get through the fourth quarter. >> do you not agree, then, with someone like paul tudor jones who is positioningclearly as h state this had morning on this network for a reflation trade?

commodities, expecting things like silver, gold, copper and other things so highly tied to that to continue to rise >> it's a mixed message. i am absolutely 100% on board with the gold call, silver just broke out this week and looks fantastic. that's one of the best charts in the markets overall. you don't have really much going on in oil and that usually helps with the inflation story so i think that is certainly something that will work to the advantage of not only the fed but the inflation data and bitcoin. the bitcoin breakout to us while it hasn't cleared that hurdle of about 73,000 it certainly is improving and looking better so i would say it's too soon for us to make that call in yields, but we are absolutely on board with the precious metal call and frankly that's part of the cyclical call we're making here as well. it doesn't look like right here yields are the right call to make here. >> i mean, just to note, silver,

fresh high thanks to our markets desk, silver fresh high back to december of 2012 gold its 45th record year to date so we note that as well. what's going on with the semis what's the message there because the underperformance is stark. >> yeah, i will tell you, i mean, this is one of the kind of internal debates that we have because if cyclicals are going to work which is our call it's hard for knows not to work if you look historically at the correlation to semis i think they're still digesting the overenthusiasm that we had at the end of the first half, june and july. i think they're just really getting themselves through that and, you know, they will probably work out towards the middle to back half of 2025, but i think you have to frustrate people and that's usually what happens when we get our sentiment indicators that are percolating like that it's usually not a big top formation, it's something that just through apathy people just get frustrated and move on i think that's probably what we're dealing with

there are good charts, the nvidia chart is a good chart the broadcom chart is a good chart. but there are several names whether it's lam or qualcomm or just about name any others that still look like they're vulnerable, losing relative performance. my gut tells me this is more of a sentiment call and just a recalibration of the overenthusiasm that we had, but we will certainly be watching that but we think there are better places to play that cyclicality, com equipment as an example looked interesting to us. >> have you looked at a microsoft chart lately i'm just curious i don't know whether you have or you haven't. >> i have. >> because talking about charts that don't look great, that one jumps out in my mind as one we need to focus on do you have thoughts on that as we pull one up >> i do. i would tell you that you had what we call a dark cross which is the 50-day moving average crossed under the 200 day, that's a simplistic definition of trend

it is triggered more negatively. i think when you look at other software names like cadence design or synopsis, which are sort of early feeds into the semi space, knows are weaker, look more vulnerable i would agree in terms of the mag 7 this is one of the more vulnerable looking names here. this is happening coincidentally as apple is breaking out but apple is breaking out pretty quietly. we're always interested in things that are breaking out and aren't getting a lot of fanfare because usually that means there's legs to those moves. i think the break in microsoft is notable, i think it's important, but i also think that the breakout in apple is equally as important on the upside. >> i want to go back to the chart we were just looking at before that where, i mean, you can almost draw a straight line from, you know, february/march to now, right? take the peaks, the valleys out. i mean, that shows a stock that really had done well -- no,

that's not the right one -- that then sort of started to tail off. >> yeah. without question i mean, from a traditional technical standpoint you call that a head and shoulders formation. it is creating kind of this rounding, doming top, and certainly that puts us on notice. >> it's like a one-year chart. >> -- looking for things that are breaking out and trying to make new highs out of consolidations here. >> yeah, i mean, nvidia is the one that -- there it is. >> yeah. >> you see, you know, february just before march and then you are here at 427 now. i bond what are kind of pressure that puts on a stock like that in the week ahead as we're going to be talking about mega cap earnings we will discuss another time i appreciate your time as always. >> thanks. >> jeff degraaf. up next, peloton shares moving higher today on the back of a new partnership with a key big box retailer deilcongp. tas mi u

we're less than 15 from the bell peloton costco announce ago key partnership today. let's send it over to brandon gomez for the details. >> holiday season is upon us while you are at costco picking up that turkey and cranberry sauce you can also pick up your new peloton bike a few aisles over the companies announce ago holiday partnership from november 1st to february 15th. shares giving back some early gains now up just about 2% peloton's bike plus will be available in 300 u.s. costco stores for $1,999 and on costco.com for just about $2200. a mark down from $2,500. two board members at the helm since the ceo departed in may.

this is to reach new users costco attracting younger shoppers, are more affluent with a third of members making over 125 k annually peloton reports earnings on october 31st, we will hear more then and bring it to you then, scott. >> we appreciate it. brandon gomez. still ahead gm and ge aerospace moving in different directions today >> announcer: sector sort is sponsored by sector spyder etfs. >> announcer: sector spyder etfs visit us at sectorspdrs.com.

you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean. not spreadsheets... you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our matching platform lets you spend less time searching and more time connecting with candidates. visit indeed.com/hire

(man) these men of means with their silver spoons. what will become of them when they discoverith candidates. robinhood gold allows others to earn their very liberal rates on idle cash. they would descend into chaos. coming up next, what to watch for when texas instruments reports after the bell the market zone is next.

♪♪ well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley.

time for the "closing bell" market zone. cnbc's mike santelli to break down the crucial moments of this trading day plus general motor ral rallying, ge aerospace selling off, phil lebeau has the details and seema mody looking forward to texas instruments reporting in overtime. we start today with phil lebeau. >> let's start with general motors, a stock that took off today after beating the street by a wide margin how wide it's earnings for the third quarter tame kha nim 53 cents better than analyst expe expectations you have solid sales, strong pricing and north america, look at that, a 13% improvement compared to the third quarter of last year. yes, they lost money in china, that was expected. that's an ongoing situation. as you take a look at shares of gm they've already said they are going to have meetings with their partner in china they will eventually restructure those operations in some capacity but also lifted their guidance for 2024 full year earnings per share at least on the bottom end ge, take a look at ge, it beat

the street by a penny. you wouldn't know it from looking at the stock today because it sold off despite posting really solid results across the board with all of its key metrics including q3 operating margin of 20.3%. it also raised its 2024 earnings per share guidance as well as its operating profit guide scott, when you've got a pe ratio of 41.5, not surprising that some days people are going to say you've come a long ways in a period of time it's time to sell. >> only up 110% over the last 12 months point well taken phil, thanks. seema, tell us what to look for with texas instruments. >> scott, the setup isn't great, texas instruments doesn't have that ai exposure other semiconductors like nvidia have, plus it sells into automotive and industrial which have been very weak. earlier that's week elliott management did take the $2.5

billion stake in the company pushing for changes in the free cash flow numbers. investors will now want an update on whether targets are achievable it's also on deck to receive nearly $2 billion from the u.s. chips act. shares down just about 5% in the past three months. results out in just a couple minutes, scott. >> seema, thank you very much for that seema mody we will get the two-minute warning right now. there's the animation. 5864 is the record high on the s&p 500 we are not that far away from that. >> has not really come in certainly at the market cap weighted index level banks firmed up midday and that gave a little bit of i think credence to the traction still negative, equal weight s&p down 1 point something percent for the week we are about at the flat line for the s&p. if we have another down day, two days in a row, first time back to back down days in six weeks. >> wow. >> this has been a persistent move higher. it raises the question if the market defies the seasonal tend

answersees when it's supposed to be choppy and weak as it has really since the beginning of september for the most part does that mean we're due to actually not get the seasonal benefits of upside in november and december? it tends not to really work that way. i know btag is saying maybe we're upside down and will have to pull forward some of that strength, that's what we've done now. usually the market is telling you something when it's stronger than you would have anticipated. i don't want to defer just to seasonals but that's something in the debate as well as is there a magical ten year treasury yield that is going to get paused is it 4.25 are we close to it i think that's all in the mix and we go through earnings season. >> yet another day if you look at the mega caps you have some up, some down. the ones than up, the end individual i can't say and apples are down today -- >> it only takes a couple on a given day to sort of really stop the bleeding at this point i think the dispersion is good when it comes

to the mega caps you know, some of them running in place at this point we will see if there's going to be any kind of a follow through at all earnings movers pretty dramatic in both directions that is kind of offsetting at this point. >> the bell is ringing interesting finish here. we may go flat for both the s&p and the dow, but also we will get into overtime with morgan and jon. >> well, that bell means the end of regulation. eqtab doing the honors at the nasdaq stocks making a come back throughout the session as earnings provide some support, though, closing off the best levels of the day, that's the score card on wall street. welcome to "closing bell: overtime" i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. >> ahead this hour the exclusive interview with the new ceo of norfolk southern, his first appearance since taking the top job last month after the removal of ala