at enterprise demand across a number of different reads with ibm. some of that a bit more tradition am and then servicenow, which has been pushing pretty hard on a.i. applications >> see if elon musk says anything about a sub-30,000 ev tomorrow night that does it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight bright and shiny returns traders keep flooding into gold and silver the precious metals climbing to new highs as fears growing a skyrocketing deficits. plus, housing hammers. shares of pulte leading the sector lower, why the diy trade is taking it on the chin is it time to remodel your way out of this trade? and boeing is on the clock will the deal with the union get done shares of gm revved up after earnings and dialing up the telecom should you hold on or hang up? i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the

nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, dan nathan, guy adami, and katie stockton and we're going to get to the moves in the commodities and rates in a moment, but we start out with two breaking stories. shares of mcdonald's and starbucks dropping after the close. >> melissa, we'll start with mcdonald's, shares of the fast food giant down nearly 10% right now. this on a warning from the cdc that the company has been linked to an e. coli outbreak no recall has been issued. the investigation began today. the agency saying there are so far 49 cases across ten states with ten hospitalizations and one death. most of the people affected so far are in colorado and nebraska, and the cdc saying that sliver ed onions are likely the source of the contamination. we've reached out to mcdonald's for comment, we'll bring you any further updates on that story as we get them, melissa and moving to starbucks, the company giving a q-4 warning

with a preliminary earnings report ahead of its scheduled earnings next wednesday the 30th it suspended its full-year guidance for 2025. the company says it is expecting 80 crepts adjusted, that is lower than the $1.03 estimated revenues 1$1.9 billion same-store sales globally down 7% that's double the drop anticipated by analysts. the company's results primarily driven by softness in north america. revenues in q-4, a 6% decline in u.s. comp store sales, driven by a 10% decline in comp transactions that was partly offset in tickets. china's store sales declined 14%, driven by an 8% decline in average ticket, compounded by a 6% decline in comp transactions. the company noting it was weighed down by intensified competition and a soft macro environment. we know that's going on, that impacted consumer spending in

china. now, in prepared remarks, brian niccol saying, quote, it's clear we need to fundamentally change our strategy so we can get back to growth and that's exactly what we're doing with our back to starbucks plan. the stock lower on that news, and we'll hear from brian niccol on the 30th, his first quarter as ceo for that company. >> have we heard officially from mcdonald's yet, kate >> we have not, melissa. i'll bring you that statement as soon as we hear from the company. >> keep us posted. kate rogers in san francisco let's drill down to mcdonald's this would be the biggest move since march 2020 this is a pandemic-like drop a lot of things we don't know about the story right now. it is developing, but what we know, is it comparable to chipotle and the e. coli outbreak there, and that took multiple years to resolve. so, how do we figure out whether or not this drop is too little, too much, guy? >> talking about it before the show i think -- i might even be mistaken, i don't think anybody died from the chipotle e. coli 11 people were hospitalized or something like that.

there's a death involved here, which ychanges the dynamics a little bit that stock lost, and you said it before, i was looking back, almost 60% of its value, i think it was from october 2015, the first one, then again in december, it lasted a long time. okay in terms of mcdonald's, you know, this is going to be sell first, ask questions later this is not a one-day thing. where is there going to be support in the stock katie can speak to this, but if you look at the two recent lows, they've probably come in around 251 to 255 or so that should be the first logical point of support, and they report, i think, next week, as well so, one has to wonder if the earnings even matter at this point. guess the point is, if you're looking to buy this on the dip today or tomorrow, you're doing it wrong >> more details from what we're getting from the cdc and that is, it takes three to four weeks to develop symptoms we don't know how this is going to unfold in terms of people actually falling ill to this and also, the person who died, there's a separate person what

has a syndrome that could cause kidney failure that is not the person that passed away from this. there is a person in serious condition right now in addition to the death >> going back to chipotle, there were two major incidents in 2015 the company were growing in sales, one of the best growth stories in the entire consumer space, and so, sales growth desell rated massively in '15 to 10%. it went down 13% in 2016, but then it reaccelerated and got back to kind of that peak number in 2017. so, interestingly enough, it did take awhile to get confidence back net income went from, you know, almost a half a billion dollars to basically flat in 2016, and then it reaccelerated again, so, earnings got back there, sales got back there, but that is a long time to stay away from a growth story and ultimately did get back to growth, but it took, you know, years. >> what do you think of this

drop >> it's been such a nice run for mcdonald's, it comes at a very unfortunate time we had just seen a breakout to new all-time highs, and, you know, we'd seen good follow-through, good momentum, and of course this changes everything, really, if it does open up where it looks like it's a off around 285 that will take it back to the 200-day moving average, and back into its range so, it would be a step back from the technical perspective. that long-term support is around 250, so, maybe that's where it finds ultimately buyers again. >> tim, just last week, we were talking about how analysts across the street were raising their price target on mcdonald's, going into earnings. just on expected momentum, recovery there, based on those value deals. and here we are, a major setback, as we try and figure out whether or not -- chipotle, outbreak, by the way, 2015 to 2018, affected 1,100 individuals and had to pay a fine to the doj. there's a death involved so far, one death, so, mcdonald's,

likely, i would imagine, will face charges related to that death, as well, tim. >> yeah, i think it was a $25 million fine we're talking about what went on with chipotle, it was -- it was a three-year process, but it was multiple events. and so, we don't know what's going on here, and obviously there's still a dynamic here with incubation of e. coli-like symptoms, but if you think about the stock before this event, the question was, after 31% move going into earnings, where third quarter same-store sales at least u.s. were expected to be down small half a percent, maybe they've gotten a little bit better, the value meal promotion cycle was very, very successful. i think the company's returned back to at least taking market share in the space it was getting to a place where it was really just about the valuation, and 26 times, 27 times '24 is where this was trading. we know it's traded 30 times coming out of covid. i guess, you know, no one knows what the playbook will be in terms of the news cycle.

everyone is doing a good job talking about how chipotle -- their 2018 earnings alone fell 44%. so, that was a dynamic that, i think, was a combination of different issues for a company that was growing dramatically. right now, making that call on mcdonald's, i wouldn't do that, but i -- it's obviously, liook, this is scary news, something the company is going to take very seriously, and the market will weigh it. you don't need to do anything today, but my first kind of look through some of these headlines to, if you could get it anywhere near that 255 level again, i think you'd be going for it. >> yeah. would you -- >> makes sense again, there's a lot still to unravel here, right? the next question is, you know, depending on how long this lasts, regardless of what it was, are people going to go -- whether it's for breakfast, lunch, or dinner one has to wonder, how many quarters cmg lasted a long time it's obviously a different set of circumstances, but in terms of playing stock market here,

you know, to do something tomorrow on the back of this, you got to wait and see. wait for your levels and i do think that 250 to 255 level makes sense. >> we're seeing some reaction in related stocks, shake shack shares are higher, lamb weston down, tyson feeling some downside here. >> yeah, so, you hope it's contained. very sad story here. at the end of the day, the idea of kind of calculating where you'd buy the stock and what else you would buy, you know -- the chipotle thing, to your point, affected hundreds of people it went on for over a year i think the fda did not declare it over until early 2016, and i think those sorts of things just leave questions in your mind you have a lot of other options. i think -- the interesting thing about this is, mcdonald's was trading at 52-week lows, just four, five months ago, and the story was not particularly great. we spent a lot of time talking about a lower-end consumer that was doing a tradedown, and you would have thought mcdonald's was benefiting from that, and

some of the metrics picked up. tim just mentioned some of the value, you know, promotions that they were doing, but to me, i just think that, you know, when you don't know this markets, they don't like uncertainty, investors don't like uncertainty, it's probably going to be stuck here for awhile. they are not going to be able to put their finger on this >> we're still awaiting a statement for mcdonald's kate rogers is chasing that down we'll keep you posted on anything we get from the cdc or from mcdonald's. we want to quickly trade starbucks here as expected, it's a p preannouncement, it's basically a prelude to a kitchen sink quarter, guy, which we sort of expected when they switched ceos >> yeah, we talked about it, but i'll say this. i'm surprised, personally, that it's not down more than it is, given the run that it had after they made the brian niccol announcement now, i think it went from 75 to 96 or so, it topped out, 97, maybe. it's pulled back a little bit, but again, if you just look at the guide, the revenue, i mean, this is not particularly good. and they suspended full year

2025 guidance, probably anticipated, but the magnitude of the miss suggests in my opinion it should be trading lower than it is, just based on still what is a rather lofty valuation, mel >> yeah. tim, your take on the p preannouncement? >> i hate to kind of blow this off, but i just feel like this is what you would have expected. you got earnings coming out, you get out there in advance, you have a new ceo, you have every opportunity to say, we're turning it around. we care more next week about -- hearing about tstrategic objectives isn't that really what this is about? how to return growth to china? this is what's going to move the stock, not numbers that we knew were not great pulling guidance is, i think, just a -- you know, a tactical opportunity for a new ceo going out into a period where the company has a handful of questions to answer. again, core markets, core growth markets like china are really important here china, you know, down 6%-ish in

terms of same-store sales, or down 14%, i'm sorry, versus down six expected, is a bad number. and -- but i -- this headline, if i was looking to be building a position in starbucks and i'd like to be, i have a small position, doesn't scare me >> we've actually had an active short recommendation on starbucks since early september. and it's because it's a longer term sort of downtrend or trading range at best and within that context, we have an overbought condition that has yielded a loss of momentum, of course, that's become pronounced, likely for tomorrow. we're watching gap-based support from august, right around 90 if we see the stock dip into that gap, the gap creating a bit of a vacuum on the chart to below 80 so, i'll be wary of this one. some headlines from mcdonald's removing the quarter pounder from the menu. other menu items are not effected they will remain on the menu they are hoping to contain this impact here, but again, to guy's

point, you hear about this outbreak and you think, should i even go to mcdonald's? do they know if it's the onions or it's the buns or whatever else it is and do i take that risk at this point make you don't >> especially if it's a family thing, are you -- you know -- >> are you going to bring your kids >> one thing for me to get a couple cheese wburgercheeseburg' matter, but the whole family i think people are going to sort of avoid this until they get clarity and it takes time to get clarity, in my opinion >> this is happening, by the way, in the impacted area, so, not everywhere will you be deprived of quarter pounders, perhaps in your state. you'll still have them on the menu let's get back to kate rogers, who has more on the story. kate >> hi, melissa internal message just posted on mcdonald's website from its chief supply chain officer for north america, i'll read you some of the headlines here mcdonald's says we are taking swift and decisive action following an e. coli outbreak in

certain states we're temporarily removing the quarter pounder from restaurants in the impacted area working in close partnership with suppliers to replenish supply for the quarter pounder in the coming weeks. all local restaurants have been instructed to remove affected product from supply. we've paused the distribution of all slivered onions, which we mentioned in the original hit in the impacted area, and the initial findings from the investigation indicate that some set of illnesses may be linked to slivered onions used in quarter pounder. initial findings indicate that the onions were sourced by single supplier that serves three distribution centers just a reminder for viewers, that the -- most of the people affected so far are in colorado and nebraska, by this e. coli outbreak the cdc says it's across ten states, but those two states are where they are most affected >> i guess there's really some degree of certainty as to where the e. coli is coming from, if

they're willing to keep certain things on the menu in all other areas. >> yeah. i would say so but as the cdc, melissa, said in its release, it's a fast-moving investigation, as these things tend to be so, we'll see what later in the day, tomorrow brings that's where we stand right now. we'll bring you additional updates. >> is there anything sense in terms of the geography, revenue-wise >> i wouldn't want to misspeak, but the geography, colorado, nebraska, i'll get that answer for you and give you an update >> all right, kate, thank you. kate rogers. >> thank you >> maybe it's more contained for now. for now. >> yeah, these are tough situations, because obviously it's a major indictment of the company, at least from just a -- you know, a confidence standpoint, but then you think about it, there's a supply chain. this is something that -- it's not exactly a reflection on the company and the product, but again, you're going to have these concerns about going to the restaurant

so, at the end of the day, you at least have a one quarter impact from an earnings and sales standpoint, and then again, you know, it just -- how quickly do customers come back >> yeah. tim, any last words before we move on from this story? >> no, i -- there's so much unknown here, and this could play out, but this is a company that has had a tremendous run and probably not terribly cheap, though katie points out was at a place where maybe you find a way to break out to new levels i think you're going to wait on this one >> all right, and katie, just quickly on the charts, how much more downside is there in mcdonald's before it reaches some sort of critical level? >> you know, the 200-day moving average is roughly 280, so, that will be sort of a line in the sand for the chart i do think that support levels matter a little bit less when you have this kind of news, admittedly the buyers might not be there to step in and provide that support that you would expect normally so, i wouldn't rely on support, but rather wait for the

indicators to improve, wait for the oversold and wait for the stabilization, importantly no sense in buying into a gap lower. >> all right we'll have much more on this developing story. in the meantime, we'll look at the big moves in gold, rates, and much more. "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money. gold up almost a percent, setting up its 45th record high of the year. silver topping 35 bucks for the first time in over 12 years. meantime, yields continue their trek higher with the ten-year crossing 4.2% for the first time since late july. let's get more on this move in rates with rick santelli we were just debating this here on the desk yesterday, rick, what the move higher means what do you think? >> well, it means the election is close and many are concentrating on debts and deficits now, we all know before an election, many candidates like to promise the world, and we also know that after the election's over, pretty much the promises will disappear, congress probably won't pass most of them, and the politicians will get back to the same type of work they were

doing prior. now, one big issue is, if you recall, one year ago today, we were hovering about 5% in the ten-year so, we've seen that every now and again, a little bit of fear comes into the realm of fixed income government trading, and with all yields going up around the globe, alls i can say is, is that the u.s. has huge spending problem, the rest of the globe is pushing debt out, china, eu, the u.s., and there's going to be a competition, which means, in order to find enough demand for the ongoing onslaught of issuance, we're going to have to find an appropriate yield that garners added interest by investors. where will that yield be i can't tell you but as you look at a chart of ten-year rates going back to the early 1960s, going from 5% to 15% can happen pretty quickly. >> i understand this notion of competition, because of all the dead issuance around the world,

rick, but really, there is no competition when it comes to the quality of debt the united states offers for seam and so, this only really matters when the buyers step away from the market, right? and so, have we -- have we seen that in recent auctions? are we getting indications of that i mean, we know -- >> i don't agree with that >> okay. >> i don't agree with that >> okay. >> i think there was a point in time where the u.s. paper was undeniably fantabulous, but it's nowhere as good as it used to be just consider, in 1970, foreigners held about 5% of our debt, in '95, 23%. now, it's about a third, okay, and it's our fed that owns one-third of the two-thirds left so, the real issue is is that our quality, our spending, our polic policies, our financial culture in the u.s. today is dramatically different than many of the times you're talking

about. yes, our debt has the best, we still have the reserve currency, i don't think that will change, but none of those are as good, as solid, or as financially perfect as they were a generation ago >> rick, you've been doing this a long time, and i'm not looking to tee you up, but i don't remember if it's ever happened where you've had a rate cut of that magnitude and then almost do the day you've seen bond yields move the entirely different direction to the -- to the level that we've seen over, i guess now, a month since they lowered rates. so, speak to the unprecedented nature and what you think it means maybe to equity markets. >> well, i think it's investors, which we call the market, are pushing back on the notion that central banks are the mighty force in the universe. certainly, they can get away with a lot, but they can't muscle up all interest rates, and i continue to use the analogy of a water balloon central banks could squeeze it where they want, but we're in a day and age where it's going to pop out somewhere else the market is showing that it

may take more yield horsepower to move the paper. and, i continue to say that it isn't only that aspect, it's about policy all the debates that we seem to be having are about tax policy listen, other than leases and little trickles, the government basic money comes from taxes so, there's so much money in the country, now, if the private sector spends those moneys, that capital, i think it's much more efficient than the government, so, we talk about more taxation, what we're really talking about is, more control over what americans make spent by the government that doesn't make any sense to me and if you draw a line of spending, it is grossly outpacing revenues, and revenues for the most part every year continue to make records you talk about the tax changes in 2017-2018, look at what revenues did they went up the problem is, is that our baseline spending goes up every

year on automatic pilot. and in welfare, we have unlimited spending you know what the issue is if you want our debt to find more buyers, we have to change our policies and quit spending so much more than we make on about automatic pilot system >> amen. rick, always good to see you thank you. rick santelli. >> thank you >> all of this to say, tim, that gold, silver, even bitcoin, for that matter, may be the way to go >> well, gold -- gold is the best 20-year chart you're going to find, so, the argument for gold is everything rick's saying that's been happening slowly, and it's a combination also of the other central banks in the world. and i'm glad he brought up the rest of the world. as much as we're alarmed at the move in the u.s. bond market, if it's been roughly a 15% move in the ten-year treasury to this point from where it was down around 3.55, 3.60, jgbs are 16%,

17%. so, i agree with everything we're saying, in terms of runaway spending, and neither candidate has any clue, really, about the deficit that they're talking about, or not talking about. but it's -- it's a case where rates are going up because the u.s. economy isn't as weak as everybody thought it was three weeks ago, or a month ago. the fed is now, you know, potentially going to back off what was seemed to be an overly aggressive stance towards easing i think it's a combination of economic dynamics, and there's no question the credit war thinkness of the united states is being held to question here, but so is the rest of the world. be careful where you're investing on the curve, too, because two years is very different than ten, and the risk you have in terms of asset allocation moving out the curve, a lot of people were ready to do that three weeks ago, three months ago, and doesn't feel so good now. >> all right thanks for that. we're watching shares of texas instruments on the move. and boeing machinist union set to vote on the new wage proposal tomorrow, but it's not a done

deal just yet. what the union president had to say about how tight this vote u' wchg yoreatin"fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back right after this. this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo

welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on texas instruments. shares on the move after the company posted a top and bottom line beat. let's get to seema mody with the details. >> texas instruments stock is turning around on bullish come moments from the ceo on china, who said automotive grew 7% to 8% sequentially, driven by strength in china, and momentum in electric vehicles however, he did say geographical markets outside of china are not holding up well, and is unclear when that market improves. another bright spot, pearl electronics grew a whopping 30% sequentially, topping estimates. and the company still sees more room to grow however, industrial continues to decline as customers reduce inventory levels he really needs the broader industrial market to rebound and the sector hasn't bottomed as of yet. the stock up 16% this year, in line with competitor analog devices. pales in comparison to nvidia

and broadcom >> seema mody, thank you we just heard from asml and all the markets that were weak in asml's report were ones that were strong here, except for industrial >> yeah. and that was the takeaway last week from asml, everything other than a.i given that bookings decline, it was really hard to believe that. when you see some of their comments about industrial exposure, that is not as strong as expected, but then china's better than expected, and again, i mean, we don't really have a great read on china, as it is, but china's also coming off of some very easy comps, so, this one, i don't think it's a pound the table and go chase this move >> you know, honestly, if it weren't for nvidia and its influence on the semiconductor benchmarks, the sector would look pretty bad. the momentum has been mostly to the downside, at least intermediate term. and now long-term as well, head and shoulders top. texas has been range-bound and underwhelming momentum and a lot of resistance still.

>> i'm looking at the -- listen, fourth quarter guide is not good i mean, it's -- they are guiding lower on eps, guiding lower on revenue. in a meaningful way. the quarter was okay the stock is not cheap i guess the good news is, we traded down to 193 in september, traded back down there recently, so, maybe you have this little bit of support that we're bouncing off of, but i don't really get -- unless i'm missing something and i'm reading through it, i don't really get the reaction here, it doesn't make a lot of sense, given the guide and given some of the commentary around the guide. coming up, tesla results on deck, and we're plugging into that name ahead of results are there any clues as to what to expect? first, boeing's machinists set to vote on the new wage proposal tomorrow. but the union leader isn't so sure it's a done deal. what he told phil below, right after this "fast money" is back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money. we are keeping an eye on shares of mcdonald's. they are down by 6.7% after the cdc said a multistate e. coli outbreak is linked to the fast

food chain's quarter pounder the outbreak has led to ten hospitalizations and one death 49 cases have been reported in ten states mostly instances in colorado as well as nebraska we should note that menu items in those afeked areas have b been -- the quarter pounder is going to be off the menu, but the other menu items are not affected, mcdonald's says, and will remain on the menu. the list of states, really, colorado, kansas, utah -- i hope you are writing this all down in case you are in these states colorado, kansas, utah, wayyomig new mexico, oklahoma, they think it has to do with the slivered onions used on quarter pounders. there's a lot we don't know. and in the mind of the consumer, that may be just enough to not spend those dollars at mcdonald's >> that's the point. do you want to play mcdonald's roulette you want to sort of go some place else and until they can categorically say, we have this contained, which, my sense is, won't happen for altd least a week or so, you

got to stay away from it not only the stock, but the restaurants, unfortunately, as well i was jonesing a cheese burger before, too. >> guess that's not going to happen tonight let's get to dr. kavita patel. thank you so much for being available to us, we always appreciate your insights >> yeah, absolutely. this is a rapidly developing story, it's alarming a lot of us in the health community. >> yeah, in terms of -- is it too in the weeds to dig out -- to dig down into the particular strain of e. coli and how serious this particular strain is >> no, it's not necessarily too in the weeds, but i think that the cdc, as we're getting rapid information, is trying to make sure that they can not only reassure the public, but pretty important that it's not necessarily just, we've identified the one strain, they also need to make sure, given how widespread this is and how many states it's in, obviously they'd have to understand kind

of the supply chain, whether or not there have been multiple disruptions. i like to say in medicine, like, when you hear hoof beats, think horses, not zebras, so, you want to think about the obvious, but in this case, this is something that's so unusual that iwould say that the most important thing for any listener or viewer is to just make sure that they are aware of what is happening, not only in their state, and mcdonald's, but that if they have any symptoms, even if they don't remember eating mcdonald's, that it's very important to present yourself to a health professional, because that's the only way we're going to be able to do kind of what we call contact tracing and get to the ultimate source. the strain helps, but in and of itself, it's not going to be enough information to give us what we need to know >> in terms of the death, the death is reported in an older adult, there's one case of

h.u.s. are those sort of outlier results of an e. coli infection? >> an e. coli infection, especially in someone who is older, butt we can see this in younger patients, as well, so, it's not necessarily being older. of course that sets you up for being at a higher susceptibility to get sick from it, but h.u.s. can happen, does happen in younger people, but it is something that rapidly kind of breaks down blood cells, backs up and kind of overwhelms the kidneys, so, it kind of has an element of organ failure to it, and it just score whelms the entire body, kind of puts it into almost like we talk about sepsis, the conditions where the entire body is so overwhelmed that it literally results in death. so, that syndrome is something that in melddicine, we watch for when we find someone with an e. coli infection

we actually tell patients, if you notice anything about your urine, you start feeling worse, we need to closely monitor you so, unreasonable, no it is an outlier that is not common every person with e. coli does not get this kind of syndrome, which is good news, but again, most important here, anything that seems off, even if you can't recall eating mcdonald's, it's important to present. >> let's say it is isolated to the slivered onions served on a quarter pounder and they were able to pull all that product and there is no more >> right >> theoretically, a person could have eaten that last quarter pounder today. so, how many weeks out will we be sort of clear from this problem? >> that's a good yquestion you're right, if they know with confidence they've narrowed it to -- if we know by the end of today, obviously, cdc is working rapidly, if we know by the end of today that we've isolated it, contained it, then the supply chain is such, melissa, that you can turn that over, it doesn't necessarily take that long, and

if you can make sure that you at least make people aware, you can see symptoms much later, we can see days evolve, but if, in terms of how many people would present, i would say that at least several weeks, and that would be the longest limit we have seen cases that reported in the literature that are even longer, 21 days out, that's highly unusual, so, it would be something that's after 10 to 14 days, there's at least the majority of the cases should have prevented themselves. >> dr. patel, thank you. >> thank you >> dr. kavita patel. coming up, a big day for boeing earnings, and a vote that could end a month-long strike. we'll have the details on both after this break don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.

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(grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. welcome back to "fast money. a big day tomorrow for beleaguered boeing they report third quarter earnings before the bell and its machinist union votes on a landmark labor package that could end a month-plus long strike our phil lebeau spoke to the union's lead negotiator earlier today. what are the odds, phil? >> i think it's going to be a

close vote i think most people, if you talk with them, who have looked c closely at the machinists, they believe the same thing here's what's on the table, 35% raise over four years. 7,000 signing bonus, 5,000 deposit in the 401(k). pension not reinstated here is the president of the machinists union, when we asked him about how the vote will go >> i think it's going to be a tight vote there's a lot of emotion tied here, there's a lot of history tied here, and, you know, we've been able to negotiate the best that we could, and we're hoping that our members will consider it, and that's where we're at. >> while the members of the machinists are voting on their own personal financial well being, there's what lot at stake for the financial bottom line of boeing current liquidity is believed to be $10 billion there's a possible capital raise of $10 billion to $15 billion. they're all set -- they're probably going to get sign off from the s.e.c. to do it when they're ready. once that happens, they can do

it whenever. they would like to do it once the vote and once the strike is over, and the credit rating is in focus, because the longer this strike goes, melissa, the more the questions are going to be raised about whether or not they keep their industrial-grade credit rating or if they go to junk status. don't forget, tomorrow, we get the q-3 announced. the numbers are not a surprise, it's what the ceo has to say, in terms of hi vuz of ts view of t company. we have not heard from him yet, and i suspect a large part of his message tomorrow will be, here's where we are, here's where we're going. maybe not in super great detail, but he has a plan. and i suspect tomorrow is when he outlines it >> there's going to be a major asterisk, though, in terms of pending the union vote >> yes >> in terms of financial guidance we need to know what pact it's going to be -- >> i don't think they give guidance, melissa. i would be stunned if they give

guidance i think first and foremost, finish the strike, once the strike is done, then you do the cap tam raise. once you do that, then you focus on increasing production at a steady pace, and remember, it's limited right now by the faa at 38 per month on the 737 max. eventually, they're going to want to go beyond 38 a month, so, they've got to be able to show they can do that, meet the standard that have been set there, and then grow from there. >> all right, phil, thank you. >> you bet >> fillul lew phil lebeau tim, the package is set to impact margins by 100 basis points over the next four years. can it actually raise production beyond the faa cap eventually? >> yeah, i think the terms of this agreement ument matly are probably a little worse than where they started and the market had probably expected three months ago, but it's certainly better than where things could have gone, and it'

about getting back to a place where they can focus on production emirate just added five new 777s to their order i think part of kelly ortberg's message is going to have to be around what's going on in defense and space and a part of the business that's also been a major cash burn. it was $2 billion in free cash flow four years ago, it's going to be probably $2 billion in burn this year so, that which was thought to be part of the business that was always clicking along, it hasn't been there's talk about die vest sures. we know this $15 million equity raise and -- $15 billion on a $25 billion shelf is something that has the market. and the credit rating agencies will be at ease here, for now. but tomorrow's a massive day for the stock, that's up 8% in the last five days >> yeah. meantime, gm shares soaring after the automaker reported better than expected earnings and raised guidance before the bell is stock up is 10% that report setting the stage for tesla, which reports

tomorrow after the bell. shares of the ev-maker struggling mightily after the company missed q-3 delivery estimates earlier in the month katie stockton, favorite game we like to play, would you rather, gm or tesla? >> well, gm has a breakout, so -- >> oh. >> as long as gm holds above that 50 level, i you this it's more interesting and you just follow where the momentum is tesla has a big prove point, i would say. it does have the shape of a long-term turnaround, if you zoom out, but near-term, it has an overbought downturn it has to contend with >> they have to deliver on a lot when it comes to the expectations -- >> yeah. >> of the lower priced vehicle, for one. >> it really comes down to margins. we've been talking about, where do they bottom if you look at the gm number, they are in line with gross margins and automotive gross mar ji margins. they need some clarity about what a low-end model 2 looks like, when it's going to come. >> it is about margins a year ago, if not five, six

quarters ago, they said that was going to be trough margins, it wasn't and they haven't gotten better. coming up, a consumer call from the charts. why katie says one side of the trade that could start to lag. that one is next f more "fast money" in two

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welcome back with the holiday season coming up -- >> ho ho ho. >> it's time to start crossing off that shopping list, guy. one trader seeps a countertrend coming for consumer discretionary names. is this trade already all shopped out? katie, what are you looking at >> it's really the ratio between the consumer discretionary sector spider etf to the consumer staples version of the same and it makes moren than just a comment on consumer discretionary stocks, but really the broader market we've seen very distinct outperformance from consumer discretionary over staples since the august low was established and that's pretty normal when you have a risk-on environment, but what we've noticed is the ratio shows sign of upset exhaustion within just a downtrend channel, so, we feel that there's vulnerability to that ratio coming in, which would mean underperformance nenear term from discretionary.

we have gaps down likely in both mcdonald's and starbucks, both of which are top ten holdings of that xly etf, so, that could exacerbate this situation here in the near term >> how do you factor that in >> you have to, without question and then you look at discretionary names. lululemon's had a decent bounce. the stock has been awful, but can the momentum continue there? so, there's some interesting trading plays in both of these sectors. i think lulu has some more upside on it they don't report until december i think lulu might be a play here, actually >> yeah. tim? >> i like the call i think discretionary got a huge shot in the arm as the consumer rebound rebounded. that whole kind of resurgence of both the economy and the consumer meant that discretionary has outperformed i've been the view that discretionary will continue to underperform, and i think that's the right call over time >> yeah. in terms of -- we saw some

interesting earnings from kimberly clark today on the staples side i'm just wondering, for people looking for that yield, what do you say to them? >> you know, it's hard really, it's more of a relative call if you look at both of the setups in absolute terms, they're tough. they've seen good runs, they're consolidating, so they've lost some momentum to the upside. you can find, of course, from a bottom-up perspective good setups in both sectors we're interested in the setups that are long-term turnarounds if you look at target, for one, on the staples side, that's an interesting turnaround to us longer term, but the average stock in the consumer discretionary sector, we highlighted booking for one recently, booking has had great upside momentum. and you have almost every reason to think it would pull back in absolute terms from a technical perspective. lots of counter trend sell signals there. we think the counter trends are much stronger in the xly >> all right, up next, final trades

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(♪♪) another check on mcdonald's. off the afterhours sessions low, down 6%. shares dropping after the cdc put out a warning that the company has been linked to an e. coli outbreak, right now affecting ten states 49 individuals, ten hospitalized there's been one death so far. this is a developing story and we'll keep you posted on it throughout the night time for the final trade, though around the horn we go. tim seymour? >> toyota motor. get some ev hybrid love, as well also the yen weakening is very good for exporters again expect it to outperform. >> katie stockton, great to have you on the desk tonight. >> good to be here i would say boeing, bravely.

it's right down on very long-term trend line support, so, if it can hold in this sort of 150 or above area, i do think it's a compelling contrarian play >> dan >> yeah, kweb has retraced 50% of the move. a little lower, get in there >> guy >> gilead, sister. >> thank you my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to "cramerica.". i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to explain what's going on so call me 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. how do you wind up with the