especially for 2025. it's thursday, october 24th, 2024 still believe me, it will go quickly "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's take a look at what's happening with the u.s. equity futures. dow is lower this morning. boeing shares are down after the machinists' strike that joe mentioned. s&p futures are up 23. nasdaq indicated up 150. it does come after a pull back yesterday for all three of the major averages

dow down 1%. s&p down about 1%. the nasdaq was down 1.6% this was the worst performance for the dow and nasdaq in a month and a half the first time we have seen the dow down three sectssions in a o since early august we will continue to keep an eye on this this morning treasury yields were higher yesterday. this had morning, ever so slightly lower ten-year below 4.2% at 4.19. the two-year at 4.05%. that's the highest level since july 26th. we have news breaking late last night the boeing machinists union voting to reject the strike offer. the stock off 2.1% we have phil lebeau with more on the story. hi, phil >> hi, becky this was an overwhelming rejection. when you look at the final vote

here, 64%. 2/3 of the machinists voted said no this is not a good enough contract 36% said they would agree to the contract that is not good enough. the strike continues after 41 days late last night, this is what the president of the machinist union had to say about the vote. >> this wasn't enough for our members. there is a big gap that we couldn't reach, especially when it's been 16 years since we had a chance to bargain every area of our contract. trying to make all that up in one is very hard to do, but our members deserve more they've spoken loudly and we'll go back to the table to try to achieve those things. >> here's the refresher on the contract that was just rejected. 35% raise over four years. $7,000 signing bonus boeing also committed to putting a $5,000 one-time deposit in every machinists' 401(k) the annual bonus would be at least 4%

that's not enough for the machinists and yesterday we sat down with kelly ortberg, ceo of boeing, we asked him how important it is to get a deal done here's what he had to say. >> the vote is important it's more important in terms of our long-term getting back to building airplanes and delivering good airplanes. so, we've worked really hard to find that overlap where we've got a deal that the employees can feel good about and the company can be successful going forward. >> as you take a look at shares of boeing, remember, this is a costly strike. it's estimated to cost boeing at least $1 billion a month it's now 41 days long. there is a capital raise of $10 billion to $15 billion set up and ready to go. boeing hasn't pulled the trigger yet. why? they wanted the contract locked in with the machinists

we will see if this changes their calculation with the machinists strike longer bottom line, this contract, they have to go back to the table and negotiate it my sense is they will have to sweeten the deal, likely with the signing bonus. that will convince a lot of rank-and-file to sign now. you will have an immediate bonus of x amount. that may be the way they ultimately get this deal done. clearly, they have to go back to the negotiating table. >> if you get a signing bonus that comes in, that's a one-time payment versus a pension that the machinists are looking for which is most longer term financial issues for the company to say saying like that. phil, is there any comment from boeing on this >> not yet we reached out to them last night and haven't heard back from them. i suspect we won't hear back from them today aside, perhaps, from a very boiler plate statement saying, look, we're

disappointed we'll go back to the negotiating table. >> we just got guidance from the company with earnings. does this impact guidance for the fourth quarter they were anticipating losing $4 billion. >> desk penpends how long they t come to agreement. let's talk about the signing bonus. let's say they throw another $1,000 or $2,000 into the signing bonus for the rank-and-file members. there are 33,000 of them 33 million forever 1,000 you pick up. let's say they go up 10% sorry, $10,000 signing bonus that's another $100 million essentially. is that going to have a huge um reply i implication for boeing on the bottom line? probably not you get into a far different discussion if you go into things like a longer raise over time, et cetera. i think near term, i'm not

certain there's much change in terms of q4. >> is there a point where they would ask mediators to get involved or try to seek help from the white house this is a pretty big deal and very important company. >> acting labor secretary was the mediator for the latest contract for boeing. my sense is she will probably be involved again they have met with a federal mediator in the past as well this is not a case where boeing doesn't want to get a deal done and dragging their feet. the question is what's the sweet spot what can you do to convince the members it is time to get back to renton and everett and build planes again >> phil, thank you >> you bet. >> we will see phil later this hour with quarterly results with southwest and american airlines.

>> that's hurting the dow today. boeing. mcdonald's, at least part of yesterday down $16 the nasdaq is up today t you are seeing all these moving in different directions. the dow is fine. it is just slivered onions why it is down three or four days in a row. it's weird sometimes individual components. there's still maybe something that ends up -- i don't know if this is anything to worry about or a bump. u.p.s. is cranking 131 was the close. if you take a look where it is right now based on earnings. up $7. up almost 6% there was a 3 cent gain in the gap results. so the 4 cent gain actually. bottom line is 180 if you made that 176, it was

still well above estimates down 1.63 the revenue number was 22.2 billion and the expectation was 22.139 that's also above. international package revenue, 4.4 billion. domestic package revenue 14.45 so, for the full fiscal year, the company sees $91 billion in revenue and what did they say? i'm looking to see if they go out to compare that. that's about 91 is where the full-year number is. that doesn't look like a big raise. there was some concern about these results. that's pretty good you got ibm, too shares of ibm. they are falling this morning. they are falling now over 5% 5.5% swinging to a loss

this time after a one-time pension settlement charge tied to agreement with prudential adjusted earnings of $2.30 per share. that beat estimates of 2.23. revenue below expectations that is hurting. the company is expecting similar in the current quarter one bright spot, revenue from h red hat growing 17% from the prior quarter. when you have top line -- top line issues, that's when people get more worried. taking a look at dow component honeywell out with earnings they came in with earnings of $2.58 a share. that's 8 cents better than the street revenue came in at $9.763 billion. that missed $9.9 billion honeywell is cutting the full-year revenue guidance of the range to 38.6 billion to

38.8 billion that is down from 39.1 billion to 39.7 billion. it looks like they are raising the earning per share rowth. let's look at this where did i just see this? full-year adjusted earnings per share of $10.15 to $10.25. the street was 10.13 before this organic sales growth for 2024, honeywell international will see organic sales growth of 3% to 4% we will continue to keep an eye on that. it looks like operating margins for the third quarter were 19.1%. the segment is 17.3% the stock is off 2.4%. >> you add that being down and the boeing being down. that is the dow. and testesla. coming up, tesla shares are

soaring after the company reported its biggest quarterly profit in more than a year we're going to show you what else elon musk said on the call. it might be giving the stock a boost. ese n th's later. and coming up, american airlines ceo interview with robert isom after that company reports. "squawk box" is coming right back >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

♪♪ data science can help address some of the biggest challenges in financial markets. if we focus on the mortgage market and follow the life of a loan from origination

right through its pricing in the capital markets, our data science capabilities can provide a deep level of insight. at ice we have extensive data sets, especially around three pillars. the property, the mortgage and mortgage performance. this trifecta of data and its history is a bit of a data scientist's holy grail. ♪♪

your business needs a network it can count on... is a bit of a data even during the unexpected. power's out! power's out! -power's out! power's out! -power's out comcast business has you covered, with wifi backup to help keep you up and running. wifi's up. let's power on! let's power on! let's power on! -let's power on! it's from the company with 99.9% network reliability. plus advanced security. let's power on! power on with the leader in connectivity. powering possibilities. comcast business. power's out.

tesla shares are soaring earnings of 72 cents a share pretty good beat on 58-cent estimate investors focusing on this prediction from elon musk on the call afterwards. >> we take a bit of risk here. i do want to give some -- some rough estimate which i think is 20% to 30% vehicle growth next year you know, notwithstanding negative external events if there are geopolitical events with some big war breaks out or interest rates go sky high or something like that. >> joining us now is tim higgins and a cnbc contributor he does say, tim, these are my best guesses i don't know if anything goes

into his best guesses. so far, this year, i think deliveries are down 6% or something. to go to 25 to 30, that takes a leap of faith. i never discount elon musk he just says this is just a guess. is that something that people should buy the stock on? >> just rolling the dice, right? you know, it's back to that kind of optimism that investors like about him that's been missing the last few years that target of potential growth. it is not the 50% year over yea growth that investors were looking to this is back to exciting and this is a growth story and this is a growth stock. you have to have growth to fuel that enthusiasm. i think investors are excited about that they are also excited about not just the profit they saw, but the profitability of those gross margin figures are exceeding expectations and back to the glory days they remember from a

few years ago that had kind of gone away that he was chasing growth which wasn't the same growth and profitability those two levers people are kp excited about, i think >> it is all multifaceted and interesting. profits -- margins go up because selling regulatory credits are a profit margin. pure profit. >> pure profit >> the other companies are like, please, sir? they need the regulatory credits. it's interesting how it works. profits are properfits he will use $10 billion for a.i. and robotics and everything else, autonomous driving don't you think investors also like that he's not going to do a $25,000 cheap tesla? he says he makes no sense and they will work on the robo cabin stead.

>> you are pointing out tesla's strength the ev market is struggling outside of tesla and automakers are pulling back their plans and pulling back the plans to sell evs, they have the regulatory credits around the world tesla benefits from that they are out there as the leader in evs and able to take that money and invest in a.i. and autonomous cars. the idea he is giving up on the $25,000 car you will drive as a human rattled people at the beginning of the year. he is stating what the market digested earlier this year i think people are beyond that and knew seeing the actual car and seeing some timelines for putting autonomous vehicles on the roadway in the next few years. there is that thing to be excited for again. >> subsidies are one thing, but the regulatory credits

this is basically thank you, uncle sam, or wherever these are being sold that's not like an operating -- it is and it isn't you can't say it is not non-recurring. they probably have these in the future to sell i don't know how to look at that it looks almost like government assistance. >> it's one of those things that over the years has been hanging over it has been there. it has gotten bigger and it looks like it will be an important part of the company as we talked about the other issues the competitors have you also have the interesting dynamic where elon musk is out there with the political hat on saying he doesn't want government help and he doesn't want this stuff and siding with donald trump saying the government shouldn't be helping with this stuff. >> and no one is expecting to turn it down, i guess. what about the timeline for the

no steering wheel and no pedals? that's really happening near term >> well, it's super ambitious. you know, the idea that maybe in california and texas, he could be having model ys out there in autonomous mode driving. that is conceivable. we see waymo out there the idea of a car without steering wheel or pedals that requires special permissions and a lot of regulatory issues ahead. just the idea of putting a robot taxi in california is a lot of paper work for elon musk and tesla that it doesn't appear they actually begun. they are not running vehicles in the state without people behind the wheel currently. so, the idea they will have a bus business out there doing that in the near term is ambitious >> selling prices for the models

were down. around the world, how is china >> china is helping, definitely. that is a big part of the business now you know, it is interesting. you hit this interesting point where tesla has been having to decrease its prices to the consumer to improve sales to help that sales growth the final quarter of the year, the guidance implies which they should have a blockbuster sales year or quarter, if you will, that's probably going to require some price discounts according to some experts. you have the interesting dynamic where prices are down, but the gross margins republican o are up. you see they take price and cost out of the vehicles and help by the regulatory credits. >> i like -- i do like the optimism he wants investors to view tesla not as a car company, but a

robotics and a.i. company with an eventual market cap of $30 trillion in his view i just like saying $30 trillion because you couldn't believe it. you couldn't believe $1 trillion and $2 trillion. then $3trillion. $30 trillion. >> you think $1 trillion is cool $30 trillion is really cool. >> does the market cap stop there? the company keeps going? >> i think for now we need to stop at 30 >> what's the timeframe on that? >> i was thinking, i hope i'm there to watch it happen that may take the singularity for me tim, even you, we might need the -- you know, be part silicon and part human for us to see that, maybe. >> implants. >> yeah. start going back to church every sunday if we don't get close

enough on that singularity tim, thank you >> thank you >> tim higgins, you go to church i hear that irish thing. we've got news for you dow component dow with earnings of 47 cents a share. revenue of 10 p$10.88 billion second year over year managing economic softness. when we come back, vote of confidence for peloton that stock jumping after david eihorn believes the stock is under valued. we will have kevin warsh on the set with his next moves on the economy. we'll be right back. amyloid can build up over time. the sooner you talk to your doctor,

the more options you may have. visit amyloid.com for additional information.

executive edge here on squawk peloton jumping in yesterday's session after david einhorn believes the stock is under valued ein e e einhorn made the pitch riding the peloton. his comments came after costco is selling the bike online and at the store the stock was a pandemic darling. down 95% from its high in december of 2020 i know your bike, joe, gets a lot of utility >> it's gone. >> of clothing. >> it was great to hang clothes on we sold it you can sell them.

the problem is if it is in the basement -- >> getting it out of the basement >> it's heavy. i have one, too. >> in terms of exercise, that was really good to move a peloton. >> burn some calories. >> i'm looking -- >> get your heart rate going. >> market cap. $2 billion there was a time, i think -- >> we still have one in our house. >> we were fully >> it's a piece of art in our house. >> i'm going to do the mat at t the high >> i can't guarantee we still have it. >> i'm not sure we still have it plugged in. >> i was going to figure out the high on the market cap somehow, we saw it and didn't go are you out of your f-ing mind >> i think some of us did >> it was 150. it's at 6 now. what is that six times 25 six times 25

25 times 2 it was a $50 billion company. >> it was. it was a moment in time. a moment in time. when we come back, we will bring you new moments in time. boeing, honeywell and ibm igngn e w iswehi othdoth morning. we will explain and bring you more on those stories straight ahead. "squawk box" is coming back. don't go anywhere. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow!

good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc a little bit of fun here live at the nasdaq market site in times square the futures may be a little less fun, at least the dow. nasdaq may be more fun we'll talk about that in a second dow off 58 points. we have a couple of dow c components weighing that down. the back of the tesla news we just talked about it, but more to come the s&p 500 up 27 points shares of boeing weighing on

the dow. that's why you are seeing red there. the company's machinist union rejected the latest contract offer. it extends the strike now. it is costing the company $1 billion per month. honeywell and ibm. we'll talk about those stories at the top of the next. >> ibm is the biggest weight on the dow. off 5 p. it is time for a special edition of the cnbc all-america survey it looks at the presidential election from the national perspective and combines the seven critical battleground states steve liesman is here with the details. >> good morning, becky this is a unique look at the election with the all-america survey, it doesn't show how you slice it, a statistical dead heat with favors on trump and character and keeping harris toe-to-toe with the former president. we showed trump up by two

points 48% to 46% same as the august survey and both within the 3.1% margin of error. in the seven battleground states, where the sample is smaller, it is a 4% margin of error. congressional preferential, control is 48% republican. 44% democrat that is unchanged again from august despite all of the money spent. division of the top line with race, gender and education let's go through these here. college grads has harris winning by 20 points voters of color, harris winning by 27 points that's down ten points from the august survey. it is ten points high ner in th battleground sdtates. women, harris, plus 12 he is winning men by more than

harris winning women both candidates have made strides and lost ground with key constituents with women, harris led trump by 5 in august. now up 12. men? trump from 9 to 17 becky is shaking her head. it makes me comfortable. >> i get it. >> it's really interesting voters of color, harris, plus 37 in august. now plus 27. again, she's at 38 in the battleground states. this young thing is really interesting. harris was plus 10 in august, now trump is plus 1. he has made important gains with young men throughout the country and battleground states. looking at this next thing here and favor ability. harris has lost her post-campaign bounce that's a sign trump has been lands blows on her image and maybe she is doing it to herself

as well. trump maintains. he has improved his favor ability. trump has leads over harris over economy and inflation being the most important concerns. here is one interesting difference to think about here on the issue of the needs of the middle class, 82% say it is an important issue nationally 88% in the battlegrounds now look at this trump is plus five on the issue nationally, but harris is plus three in the battleground states she has done a better job making herself feel more in line of the needs of the middle class in the battleground states. harris has big leads on abortion in the battleground states trump trounces her on immigration and safety amid the safety and spending, there are important things to watch. the race remaining pretty much what it was, guys. >> is there a reason to look at

national polls when we know it will come down to the battleground states? >> it depends on your question if you want to know who will win, look at the battleground states the trouble is state polling has a larger error than the national polling. >> if pollsters were really smart, they would do bigger polls in the battleground states >> that's an interesting question bigger polls you will have frank on frank luntz. i don't know it is so interesting we can use 1,000 people and get really close to the national thing. take the same 1,000 people and put them in wisconsin and you have a larger error. >> funny wisconsin. that was the one where someone was up 17 and election day was one. >> yeah. i think wisconsin has shown itself to be one of the states that defies accurate polling look, i love these polls because however you come to your conclusion of what is going in

america, i get to ask 1,000 people the same question >> right >> i get to really learn about what motivates people and what people are thinking and the differences of opinion out there. we all have our atmospheres and bubbles we live in this gets out outside >> i love seeing this stuff, but i know how wrong polls have been politically in the last 10 to 12 years. it is hard to get people to answer the phone or respond along those lines. we're all trying to figure out how much we put in the polls, especially when they are closer than the margin of error it makes it tough to say they need authority. >> i like to say westers in the country. we have a public opinion strategy on the republican side and one on the democrat side we have been working and looking at errors that have been made

and trying to correct them there is a notion of not getting a response from the trump people you simply can't add because you were wrong last time you have to find those people. we spent money moving from land line to cell we had the latino poll from telemundo. a third of it was web stuff. everybody has an interest of getting this right by the way, the interesting thing i've thought about is this every dollar spent in the campaign is designed to prove a poll wrong >> right right. they're paying attention to the polls. >> harris is lagging with latinos. what is the harris campaign going to do? spend tens of millions of dollars. >> they are watching the polls. >> that's why we all do it my wife said to me, steve, why work until 10:00 at night? why not wait until the election?

i'm not sure i have a good answer to that i'd like to. >> if the 2000 election was literally in the hundreds -- >> right >> -- how do you poll 300 million people if you get down to a margin of -- 1,200. >> in florida. >> in florida. >> if i could quickly, we have two stories. voters persuadapersuadable. >> this minute. >> we will look at the advertising and the marketing in some of the states. >> what i love in this is showing the direction and trends on things. that shows you clear momentum one side or the other and that is pretty valuable >> it's fascinating. i'm really looking forward to frank's analysis we were chatting outside he has interesting visitors with us >> this is fascinating we'll see you later. when we come back, quarterly from southwest alis.

'll brian wing you those next. as we head to break, take a look at major currencies. "squawk box" is coming back right after this >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers

♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

southwest airlines just reporting. phil lebeau has the numbers. hey, phil. >> joe, this is the beat on the top and bottom line. revenue coming in better than expected at $6.87 billion. the metrics for the third quarter, revenue per seat mile 2.8% compared to the third quarter last year. positive excluding fuel up 11.6

compared to last year with the capacity increasing 2.6% in the third quarter. then there's the guidance for the fourth quarter southwest expecting revenue per seat mile up 3.5% compared to the fourth quarter last year capacity is key to the turn around as they move forward in 2025 it will be down 4% in the fourth quarter. don't forget, we will talk with southwest ceo bob jordan on "squawk on the street. the big enchallada is the settlement with elliott management where they are looking for board representation we will see what they have to say we talk to bob jordan on "squawk on the street. guys, back to you. >> okay, phil, thanks. we will see you at the top of the hour for american airlines, phil has

an interview with robert isom. when we come back, vice president harris speaking at a cnn town hall event last night we will show you some highlights and talk campaign pollster messaging with frank luntz "squawk box" will be right back. (man) these men of means with their silver spoons. what will become of them when they discover robinhood gold allows others to earn their very liberal rates on idle cash. they would descend into chaos.

your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our advanced matching helps find talented candidates, so you can connect with them fast. visit indeed.com/hire (♪♪) i take you, body in sickness and in health. (♪♪) through good times, (♪♪) bad times, (♪♪) and all the in-between times. (♪♪) for as long as we shall live. (♪♪)

(♪♪)

let's talk about the compromise bill that you want to pass if collected. you said it is a priority. it includes $650 million in funding for the border wall. that is something that the republicans wanted it is part the compromise. you called it stupid, useless and medieval vanity project.

is the border wall stupid? >> let's talk about the wall remember when donald trump said mexico would pay for it? come on, they didn't. >> that was vice president harris speaking at the town hall event on cnn last evening. joining us is pollster frank tk zone here as we get down to the wire how close to the wire are we and what do you think you know about the polls right now? >> i think that clip illustrates exactly why harris is in trouble at this point. and it is something that i don't understand why the campaign does not address. they asked her specifically where do you stand on the wall, what does she do she goes and shifts it right to donald trump immediately mentions him twice, within the first five seconds. she still hasn't closed the deal she still hasn't said to people exactly what she would do. in fact, what she should have done, in the opening of that town hall is said, i want to tell you what i'm going to do in the first hour, in the first day, and in the first week

and it is going to take me five minutes. so, anderson, you're going to have to sit tight, here's what we're going to do by 1:00 p.m. she didn't do any of that. she hasn't told the public step by step what she's about. >> let me ask you this and then i want to get back to the polls because i think we're down to the wire and everyone is trying to understand what the polls are really saying, not just on a popular basis, but look at this electoral college. my one question, just to follow up on this cnn piece of it is, you don't like her answer. what is the right answer to that question >> the right answer is, as i was just saying, you got to -- >> but still that's not an answer to the question >> that's what she does. she doesn't answer the question. that's the -- >> that's what i'm asking you. my question to you is, anderson asked her, what do you think of this medieval wall or whatever it was, the quote, she's supposed to say what >> she's supposed to say within the first 24 hours i'm going to introduce legislation that supports the wall. >> that supports the wall? okay. >> and supports the dream act

for progressives who want people to cater to -- to not follow their own and improve illegal immigration so more people can come here the right way. it is such an easy compromise and she doesn't say it. >> let's talk about the electoral college, let's talk about the swing states that are either up for grabs or not at this point there are some polls that would suggest that trump is in such a lead that there is actually not voters left who are thinking about what to do and then the question to you is, are there voters out there that you think are changeable >> and i use now -- i now use the word persuadable cnbc taught me that. the best way to communicate it those are undecided are likely nonvoters. if you're still undecided at this point, you're not going to participate. you're going to vote third party or not going to vote the persuadables, it is a tiny percentage, it is % now, we have come -- we made our decisions, they can be moved by harris, not by trump and i find this fascinating and

i will acknowledge, i will say this on air, i thought his debate performance was so awful that he could not win. and i'm now saying i was wrong that the debate turned out not to be nearly as important because what donald trump is saying is not as relevant to people's decision-making as what harris is saying so, electorally, the states are different. you can't say they're all going to move one direction or another. i think carville is wrong. what you do with voters of color determines north carolina and georgia. how you do with union voters determines pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin and latinos -- >> how accurate do you think the polls are recognizing that back in 2016 trump was undercounted, by the way, by oftentimes 8 and 9 percentage points, and then you go 2020, down to, what, 4, 5 percentage points. in 2024, are folks who are being asked who they're voting for either telling the truth, is the

system -- are they calling cell phones finally how are we supposed to think about the numbers we see on the screen >> the issue for 2016 in particular was people not participating because they did not want to be counted in 2020, it was less that and more about who they call or who they did online. a lot of my polling is done online in 2024, they tried to adjust for it, what we know, what we are sure about, is that the trend is toward trump. and what i am sure about is that it is dangerous to call this election because it is dead even, even in these swing states >> do you think there is anything to the -- this is -- from one side you're hearing this, there is kind of a doom loop in that she needs to get out more because she's down, but when she does get out more, she just gets further down >> she is not connecting and the people who like her love her. but she's not connecting to those persuadables because they

want -- >> what would you do and, you know, october surprises, there may be an october surprise du jour we have seen a couple already. >> we have been living through them trump almost being assassinated, biden dropping out, this stuff that has been happening right now, israeli-palestinian conflict we had three october surprises. >> do you think if you were the harris campaign, you would tell them to do what immediately? >> i would immediately do interviews and shows like this and have you guys go at her. >> that might be -- >> but your point is, you got to be more than i'm not donald trump, i'm not joe biden here's who i am. >> and the town hall was live. she could have said to anderson, this is going to take a while and just keep on detail after detail after detail to the point where anderson goes crazy and then she puts it out as a commercial that's how you -- >> they're playing us to the commercial and you can't takea while. day after the election --

>> i'm afraid. i'm genuinely afraid we're not going to have a decision the day after, the day after that or the day after that and this show, pay attention to that morning that we could have issues of credibility, of trust in this election. >> is it both sides situation? >> it is a both sides situation. i know the federal government is paying attention to this i think that investors should pay attention. i think average americans should because this is not going to be -- >> like a recession. if you're expecting it, it doesn't happen we could -- let's hope that's what happens. >> yes, but our democracy is at stake right now. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset. so how do you invest in gold? sandstorm gold royalties is a publicly traded company offering a diversified portfolio of mining royalties in one simple investment. learn more about a brighter way to invest in gold

at sandstormgold.com. ok, here is your paperwork, if you want to review it and make sure everything's in order. these factory floormats, are they really as good as weathertech? you know, laser measured? [suspenseful music] no. nothing comes even close to laser measured weathertech floorliners. they offer the ultimate protection. front, back and even up the sides. for a full line of premium american made products order at wt.com nothing protects like weathertech. (♪♪) [child laughing] (♪♪) [child giggling with delight] (♪♪) (♪♪) ♪ ooooh. ooooh. ♪ ♪ ooooh. ooooh. ♪ come on, you two. dinner time. ♪ ooooh. ooooh. ♪ baby. ♪ ooooh. ooooh. ♪

the sports world this morning. cnbc media and sports reporter alex sherman joins us now with more good morning >> we have some breaking news actually we have got tko, the company that owns ufc and wwe, they are announcing this morning that they are buying three different businesses from endeavor -- three sports-related businesses. they are pbr, the professional bull riders league, on location, which is a hospitality luxury hospitality business for big time sporting events, and also img, the media rights business all three businesses and all stock deal for a total of $3.25 billion. because it is all stock, tko is already majority owned by endeavor, so this means ever defe endeavor will own even more.

>> how much of this is moving around, shuffling pieces as opposed to a true -- >> so, take a step back, silverlake is taking endeavor private. silverlake wants to divest assets they came to the tko board, i'm told, and said, hey, we are interested in selling, what would you like to buy, how about these businesses tko looked at it and said, that makes a lot of sense for our company, they devised a special committee, the special committee recommended it to the board and here we are. >> but tko, how much does endeavor own tko >> before this deal, 53% after this deal, 59% so, they have control of the company either way remember, tko is a combination of wwe and the ufc, so, endeavor-owned ufc, vince mcmahon and other shareholders

own wwe, now vince mcmahon is not part of that company. >> mark shapiro is the coo of both companies >> what premium are they paying for this >> these are assets that are sort of housed within, so there is no obvious premium. i'm told they're paying about 12 times earnings, the company trades like 18 or 19 so, i think the tko board thinks they're getting a good deal. we'll have to see how both stocks move now that this transaction is announced. >> and separately, you have a big interview. >> adam silver, the first and inaugural guest for cnbc's sport, our video cast that we're doing weekly you can sign up for the newsletter now on cnbc.com/sport and also the video cast is now up i sat down with nba commissioner adam silver for 34 minutes we talked about all sorts of stuff. the big one we talked about was the media rights deal and why they didn't strike a deal with

warner bros. discovery we have a sound bite from adam i don't know if we have time to play that or not if we do, you can hear him lament not being able to strike a deal with david zasloff and warner bros. discovery. >> that's a great tease for those that can get their phone out and -- >> the first time he discussed this in depth. >> was your voice like this for the interview or -- >> it is much better thank you, joe i meant to say that. >> it is better now. >> no, no, no. it is better in the interview. >> the interview is when you lost the voice. >> i think adam talked me out. now i have to struggle through it honestly, this is better than it was an hour ago. yeah >> honey tea, something. >> you have something in the back. >> we do >> we'll get you something alex sherman, check out the newsletter and thank you for bringing us that news. >> thank you >> appreciate it it is now just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast right now. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe

kernen and becky quick got a lot of news to get to this thursday morning boeing workers voting to reject the company's latest contract offer, continues more than five weeks now of that strike, roughly 64% of union members voted against the contract it offered a 35% wage hike, i should say, over four years. you're looking at that stock off about 3% and, by the way, that is now weighing on the dow american airlines just reporting and phil lebeau has the numbers right now. phil, what's it look like? >> this is a beat on the top and bottom line by american airlines for the third quarter, earning 30 cents a share the street was expecting 16 cents a share. revenue coming in better than expected at $13.64 billion when you look at the metrics of the third quarter, we have been seeing steady improvement from american that continued in the third quarter. revenue per available seat mile negative 2% compared to the same quarter last year. costs per seat mile up 2.8% year

over year. free cash flow of $2.38 billion with a margin of 4.7%. and then there is the guidance for the fourth quarter and the rest of the year in the fourth quarter, american is expecting its revenue per available seat mile to be negative 1% to 3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. eps between 25 and 50 cents a share for reference in terms of where the consensus is right now, it is at 27 cents a share and the full year eps of 1.35 to 1.60, the street right now is at 1.21 lots to discuss with robert isom, ceo of american airlines, we'll be talking with him in half an hour, guys not only about the continued improvement coming off of where they were in the first quarter, but the demand outlook out there, so many other things as well that's coming up in half an hour guys, back to you. >> okay. phil, thank you. we will see you in a little bit. coming up, nasdaq ceo adea

a friedman will join us. and later, kevin warsh from the fed's rate cut path and much more we'll be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

is it me... or is work not working? at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business. because when your people work better, everything works better. so, let's get to work. idris elba works here? mm-hmm. ya, he's super nice.

let's go boys. the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. ♪ ♪

welcome back to "squawk box. nasdaq's results out this morning, earnings of 74 cents a share, 5-cent beat, better than estimates. revenue of $1.18 billion for the deals landscape, a.i. and so much more, want to bring in -- well, you're like the king or queen of this house here, the

nasdaq ceo chair adena friedman. >> nice to be here. >> nice to see you let's talk about the earnings. you did beat what is going on and let's talk about where this is all headed because there are a lot of questions about the ipo market and so much more. >> sure. thanks, andrew we're really excited to be able to report 10% growth in our business for the quarter and it has been almost a year since we closed on the adenzia transaction and we're really, really excited to be able to share how that is going with our shareholders but most notably a really great acquisition for us for our clients. we had across the entire business really strong growth in the businesses which are clipso that fsits in our fintech division >> where is the growth -- where is the total growth of the business >> it actually grew -- we grew across the entire business fintech, 10% adenzia, 12. and antifinancial crime business grew 20% again this quarter.

but with adenzia, you know, we have been integrating that business all year, the team is operating as one team. we're going to market, we're ahead on synergies and ahead on deleveraging it feels great about how that's doing. in other parts of our business, our capital access platforms division, that's where our index business sits. that grew 9% and our index business was a real grower again this quarter and then actually our trading business, our markets business grew 13% this quarter. so the entire business was performing, we're really excited about that. >> there were questions about how much you paid for the acquisition, but look at the stock, up 50% over that period of time. you feel like you have answered the questions of the skeptics out there? >> i feel the investors are appreciating what we can do to deliver for our customers in new ways so how can we take calypso and our regulatory reporting tool, how are we making sure we're innovating in those businesses, we have new a.i. capabilities

we're introducing. also, we're delivering as a platform we're delivering for our customers as a strategic partner. we're focused on cross selling our capabilities, but what that really means is how do we manage risk more holistically for our customers and i would say the customers reacted well and now the shareholders are reacting well too so we're really happy with how this has gone. >> how much of this is upselling current clients of the nasdaq that are involved with other products >> the cross sells are going to start to develop over time but we had seven crosssells so far this year. but, just in the quarter alone, we had 39 new clients join us into our fintech products. so, it is really a matter of all of that. we upsell our clients, we land and expand we had 112 upsells in the quarter across our fintech division as well it is really everything. all of that combined >> can we talk about the ipo market >> sure. >> there is a big question mark about where we really are in all

of this. and also a big question mark because there are so many private equity firms that have taken businesses private that are looking desperately for exits. they're, like, trying to find the exit and they can't. so what does that look like to you? >> yeah, so, you know, it is interesting, i was looking back a year ago and trying to understand what we were saying and we were saying, oh, we hope we're going to have a better environment as we go into '24 and now i'm going to say we hope to have a better environment as we go into '25 but we did have 33 ipos this quarter. including the largest of the year with lineage. and we have a 75% rate, so that's great really what is happening is we had a lot of changes in monetary policy, which means interest rates have gone up and now they're starting to come down, that should create a better environment for companies to come out the growth of the economy continues to be resilient. that idea that we're going to have a soft landing feels like it is tangible that's giving investors more confidence we have to get through the end of this year, there is a lot

going on outside the economy or the world around us and as we go into 2025, we are feeling that there are more companies with a lot of conviction they want to get out next year. >> talking about the election, do you want to eventually be in the business of vetting or having an exchange, if you will, where people can bet on things like the election and other things >> we do -- we operate in regulated markets and that's what we really focus on, how can we be the best regulated markets available in the world >> would you want to push regulators toward that obviously? there is now this -- there is now a u.s.-based version of this, where you can technically bet on the political markets, poly markets had great success outside of the united states >> there is betting in many different fields, sports betting or betting in markets or betting -- what we call event-driven markets that's not where we play we really want to make sure we're providing liquidity for

securities we're really a securities marketplace. i think we have done a great job -- >> if regulators said this is great, we're cool with this, would you say, i'm looking at one of these marketplaces, maybe we should buy them >> i would say we haven't really focused in on looking at that as an expansion plan for us we do focus on securities side of -- >> no gambling at the nasdaq. >> yeah. we're here to serve investors. >> yeah, okay. >> there is a major investors now that are playing these markets. that's why i -- >> the nasdaq at times has sort of resembled -- maybe, you cleaned it up. but in the old days. >> pink sheets, for sure i think nasdaq has done a great job of maturing into the renowned securities marketplace in the world we're very proud of that. >> and the meme stocks, that wasn't gambling, what was that >> that was investors expressing themselves >> when you look at the

marketplace post election, one thing that was interesting about frank luntz who was just sitting in your seat moments ago, he said that he's very concerned about what is going to happen after the election that in the days and potentially even weeks after the election, it could be potentially some form of chaos, depending on -- it could come from either side to some degree, i don't know are you in any advance planning or considering what that world looks like >> we do a lot of contingency planning, scenario planning, we do a lot of extra -- a lot of testing and particularly every time there is an election cycle, we do a lot of testing of our systems. so our job is to make sure the markets are functioning really successfully, that we can handle any sort of volatility that comes into the markets, that had a lot of moments of volatility over the last five, six years, so i think we handled those very, very well. i think overall the entire market system has handled them really well. that is -- we had an industry test a couple of weeks ago we do

every year it is important we make sure we're testing our systems for various environments we feel good about our preparedness. >> some things in the middle east that could get interesting as well and not a great way. and in the oil markets as well it must be on your radar. >> yeah. all of those political and i would say geopolitical trends and changes that happen can impact markets for sure. and so we make sure that we're just prepared for all of that and we're on high alert all the time. >> great a adena, thank you for coming in. up next, former fed governor kevin warsh will join us to talk about the central bank and much more first, as we head to the break, let's look at shares of servicenow earnings and revenue beating the street's expectations. but analysts say investors may have had higher expectations for a larger boost from a.i. that stock is off, but just barely, down by just over half a percent. the ceo bill mcdermott will be

joining "squawk box. that's coming up in the 10:00 hour in an exclusive interview we'll be right back. >> announcer: time nowor f today's aflac trivia question. who was the last president to have a beard the answer when "squawk box" returns. like how aflac pays people money for the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. aflac! health insurance does leave a gap. but aflac gives people money to help close that gap. aflac! oh! coach prime got one on the line too baby! uh huh! see that's how you hold up a trophy. trust me. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. i hope you're hungry. i'm glad i brought my own dinner. uh huh.

(man) look at this silly little sailboat... these men of means with their silver spoons, dinner. eating up the financial favors of the 1%. what would become of them when they discover robinhood gold allows others to earn their very liberal rates on idle cash, unlimited deposit bonuses and handsome retirement matching? they would descend into chaos. merciless chaos. (♪♪)

(♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

>> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. who was the last president to have a beard the answer, benjamin harrison. harley-davidson just reported earnings of 91 cents a share, beating estimates of 79 cents. revenue, though, was $876 million and the street was looking for $900 million harley lowering revenue guidance for the full year. we're a few weeks away from the fed's next meeting and our next guest says that he was puzzled by the central bank's 50 basis point cut because he thinks it contradicts everything they previously said about their policy joining us now is former federal reserve board governor kevin warsh, distinguished visiting fellow at the hoover institute. >> so distinguished. hard to say he's distinguished enough

wreaks of distinguishment. >> he's wearing a tie. >> i just arrived and the sniping has already begun. becky -- >> you shouldn't take things -- very distinguished gentleman. >> call him chairman. >> why don't you explain what you mean by saying this goes against what the fed had been saying up to this point with their policy >> they had different theories, becky, about cause of inflation, the measures they use, and people in financial markets and media have tried to follow those. they said for a long time you'll recall a few years ago they were flexible average inflation target so, inflation, when it was at 1.7, they said we'll get it a little higher and try to balance around 2 they got rid of that idea without replacing it so they don't have a broad new strategy then they said what really matters is core pce, that's what we should focus on it is running at around 2.7%

nowhere near the 2% range. about a year ago, they said, well, the best measure of inflation is now what they create a new category, they said it was core services ex-housing. that's in the 4s previously janet yellen and embedded in the fed model said what really matters is wablges. we need wages to run at 3%, consistent with inflation around 2% wages running around 4%. all of this isn't to say there is -- all this is to say they don't seem to have a serious theory of inflation, that is theoretical and empirical. it is not obvious that they acknowledge what their role is in prices. instead it is something to do with wars and pandemics. i think in a world this dangerous, an economic policy where fiscal policy is irresponsible, central bank needs to be very clear about its reaction function, be clear about its goals and not look like it is lurching. that's what put us in the mess

we have. >> i understand your point i will say i can understand their perspective if they're saying, look, it was inflation, inflation has been coming down now, maybe we need to pay attention to our other mandate, the jobs market. however the jobs numbers have been better than anticipated too over this time i can understand moving around and saying there are things more important at different points in time what do you think about the dissent there was at the last meeting and do you think there will be more at this meeting >> yeah, so it is a fair point so what you're really saying is they have claimed they're data dependent and when times change, they should change of course that's right i can't argue with that. the data since early part of the summer has gotten better the economy has gotten stronger. the broad sense of the data is the economy is in better shape >> stock market. >> the stock market is in better shape. so, if that's all true, then maybe they're not data dependent. i do not want to be the person

accusing them of politics. that is not the central bank i know the members of the fomc that i know, they don't play politics but when you don't have a theory of the case, you don't follow it, it is easy to get that accusation and it is harder for people like me to defend them. >> so why -- >> did you see yesterday, i had a running argument with steve liesman about whether the fed should push back on congress about funding some of the -- some of the oversized spending that we saw. steve says they work at the -- congress does, they need to enable the congress, that that's what their job is, they work for congress esther george said they definitely should push back. i guess i'm asking, i don't think politics should influence the fed, but can the fed influence the politicians or should they? and how complicated is that when they're the ones skipping oversight? >> let me try to get into that riddle when they kept interest rates near zero for a decade and did

quantitative easing where the central bank are buying the bonds of the treasury department in crises, and they decided to make that more or less a permanent feature, it is the fed that wandered into politics on a permanent basis. and in a period of free money, what was the clear sign to congress, you can spend all the money you want and so they did you don't have to do much to get a bunch of members of the congress to want to spend money, and they said come at it, because it is free and it will be free forever. remember, secular stagnation and zero rates and zero lower bound, so they encouraged this spending boom over the course of the last few years. $5 trillion in deficits cumulatively, and this put the country in a much more dangerous place. this level of debt is dangerous for our economy, and it is a terrible sign to the world because we're all talking about

economics. bad economic policy provokes our adversaries to take us on, so that makes the country less prosperous and less peaceful. >> have you seen the calculation that big banks have been given almost this windfall of profits because the fed paid them to hold on to reserves rather than giving it out in loans and as a result, they have gotten paid more than normal businesses would have been paid, and it just padded their profits? i saw a number like a trillion dollars. have you looked at that? >> i have looked at it it is shocking to believe that the banks would take advantage of an arbitrage. >> and they did. >> and they did. i don't blame the banks for taking advantage of the arbitrage. i blame the central bank for allowing the arbitrage to happen >> what was the rationale? >> yeah, the rationale for that and the rationale for keeping the rates at zero. why were they doing it

>> i think the reason why it happened is in the old days think about the greenspan fed, we had a fed funds rate that was the rate that mattered the rate the central bank communicated, and it was the relevant rate for financial markets. there are proliferation of rates now that the central bank hits the interest on excess reserves rate, the fed funds rate, and a whole host of others there is a series of risk-free assets that are now competing with the treasury. they come from fannie and freddie, they come from the home loan banks, they come from government guarantees of all sorts of things. the fed now has many different rates that they're trying to juggle at the same time because they moved from a relatively simple way to manage the central bank and the balance sheet to a very complicated -- >> is that a reflux and after effect of what happened in the great recession in the financial crisis and the moves, the extraordinary moves taken to try and normalize and stabilize things >> i think it comes from two things it is one, the central bank playing a much more permanent

role in the financial markets and wanting to not just in crisis times where i have some sympathy, but for all seasons and all reasons and it also comes from the fact that they have a framework that is unanchored, that they are pursuing different objectives that are often at cross purposes one simple example, they're now seeming to loosen the policy rate to provide more accommodation at the same time what are they doing with the balance sheet? they're still in some modest quantitative tightening, which is tightening financial conditions >> like having a foot on the brake and the gas at the same time. >> cross purposes. >> what would you do if you were federal reserve chairman >> i finally got over the shock of not getting the job six years ago. you're dragging me back in, becky. >> we're going to talk about this in a second too. >> i go to a simpler framework if i step back, what i would do first is stop talking so much. we have 19 people around that

table, and they're all coming on to your show and others -- >> which we appreciate. >> they're giving you their forecast for rates and their dots and all the rest, and they're all herding around the same numbers more thinking, less talking. more thinking about answering questions like what is inflation, and what is our role in it what is the proper framework if you step back, becky, where we find ourselves is if washington writ large were trying to design a set of policies that were good for asset holders, made the stock market go up every day, bad for folks that are living on their w2 income that don't have assets, just have income, you're taking risks with their paychecks every day. so, what this administration has done over the course of the last several years, especially last year, is to goose the stock market that's what this mix of -- >> if you put these changes in

place, would the stock market drop as a result >> transitions are difficult the way i would say it, becky, is this, if the focus from the central bank were on the real economy, the financial markets will take care of itself the real economy is growing strongly financial markets will be fine but the focus is on financial markets, that doesn't necessarily mean hard working people in the real economy -- >> will you keep rates low for trump? >> well, that's a separate question why don't you answer that question first >> i'm having a hard time keeping track. >> you're so quick don't -- that's, like, you sound like a political candidate what was the question? you said six years ago is there a chance it could happen i think there is, if there was a trump -- another trump presidency, he's made very positive comments about you in the past, but does he know you, does he know you might keep rates too high and, you know,

the -- as bad as jay powell and his highs? >> there is not a vacancy as far as i can tell until the summer of 2026. that is a very long time both for the economy and -- >> you know how it goes. >> let me ask you two questions. one, how concerned are you about if former president trump becomes the president, even though you may be up for the job, there are a lot of questions about the independence of the fed, whether he could try to fire jay powell, whether he might try to demote michael barr, there is all sorts of speculation out there about what the president may or may not do as it relates to the fed >> might be a board member of the fed. >> right he said lots of things that, let's say, are untraditional that's the pliolite way to put . some people have expressed deep concern about that do you express deep concern about that >> no. in a simple word let me explain the federal reserve's independence is up to the federal reserve.

the world central bankers, especially at the fed, shouldn't be pearl clutchers worried that somebody said something mean about us we shouldn't have tender souls we should keep prices stable just for a moment, i would rather let the president and any elected officials scream from the rooftops their views rather than summon you to the oval office and try to push you to -- doesn't bother me at all. >> the other issue is whether there be a challenge to actually remove the current fed president or others, whether that would be challenged legally if this goes to the supreme court, if you know the math of this supreme court, then people will say it is political because potentially that court case could get ruled in the favor of the president, which is something a lot of people think was not really the intent. in terms of the true independence of the fed.

>> so independent central bankers, we might think their power comes from the printing press. the power of the federal reserve comes from its credibility its credibility comes from making the right calls making the right decisions the central banks have done a lot more harm to itself over the last several years making the wrong calls, leading to inflation, which is deeply harmful for 52% of our fellow americans who don't own any assets that is more important to the fed's credibility than whether these politicians are screaming. >> you would favor that mandate over the other one, price stability, from what i hear. i would think there should be only be one mandate. >> so my own view is if you ensure stable prices, something that hasn't been accomplished for a long time, the central bank will do much of its job and then we can have strong employment, we can have strong robust economic growth and so when you don't have stable prices, you're not going to attach it to any of these

objectives. >> if you worntuldn't lower interest rates, does that mean you think the economy -- mark rowan would argue this is a great economy. would you argue the same thing >> so i don't know what mark rowan said i'll give you my view. >> okay. >> the central bank has -- beginning with the 2008 financial crisis, decided to get into the qe business and grew its balance sheet. when we did that, what did we say? we said we would cut interest rates to zero, that wasn't enough so we created a balance sheet and so what we try to do is get rid of the balance sheet. shrink the balance sheet first get out of that. that's monetary policy i know that the world central bankers have convinced you, andrew, that in recent years that's just about -- >> no, not at all. >> i'm shaving monetary policy >> i'm trying to ask about whether you think this is a good economy. how would you frgrade the econo? >> i would grade the economy as

having been goosed by $12 trillion of stock market wealth that came about starting last december, when the central bank said we got lots of cuts coming. so with all of that massive liquidity, it is hard to judge how strong or weak the economy is because liquidity is everywhere >> okay. >> with respect to the broad conduct of policy, the federal reserve very recently cut interest rates as becky suggested by 50 basis points the strange thing is when inflation was at 7, 8 and 9%, and they wanted to start to quash inflation, what did they do then? they waited nine more months and they raised rates by a quarter so there is a strange asymmetry by how they act. my own view is they believe that financial market conditions are somehow restrictive, that policy is somehow restrictive i'm looking around to find that restrictiveness and i can't find it they loosened policy so that it

is less restrictive. but what happened to the bond market, andrew since they did that, ten-year yields are up 60 basis points. the inflation compensation is probably 30 basis points of that if they keep lowering interest rates with this kind of framework, to loosen policy, turns out monetary policy might be quite restrictive at the end of this. >> kevin, thank you very much for being here with us today we have lots and lots of questions and it is an honor to have you in here. >> thank you, becky. great to be with you. >> remember who your friends are in the future if you were to have, like, a really big job and come back. >> honored to be here, joe. >> we're honored to have you. southwest, the airline says it reached a deal with management to appoint six new independent directors. we'll have much more with phil lebeau and that is coming up

southwest announcing the

appointment of six new directors. phil lebeau has more on that and a special guest. >> let's talk about southwest, let's look at shares of southwest. six new directors are being appointed to the board of directors. five of them were among the slate of potential board directors that were put forth by elliott management group they have negotiated essentially a settlement with southwest. they're withdrawing their request for a special shareholder meeting. you're going to have five of the elliott candidates joining the 12-member board for the southwest airlines one other important note, gary kelly, former ceo, the current executive chairman of southwest, who was scheduled to lead at the annual meeting next year, his departure is being accelerated, he's leaving southwest airlines as executive chairman november 1st. so next week that's the news with regard to southwest airlines we'll have more on that throughout the day let's pivot right now and talk about american airlines, which within the last half hour

reported a beat on the top and bottom line for the third quarter. let's bring in robert isom, the ceo of american airlines let's talk about the third quarter, you swung to positive, refer per revenue seat mile. you have optimism as we head into the fourth quarter. >> we have momentum. it is great to be getting back on track we have more work to do. i feel really good about that our team is delivering on. and the quarter wasn't easy. let's face it, we had two hurricanes, crowdstrike issue, our team performed incredibly w well b but the work we're doing to win back our partners, it is working as well. there is a favorable move in terms of capacity and supply and demand and that's all positive. >> let's talk about capacity what are you noticing in the industry right now, continues to be pulled out. are you seeing firmness finally with regard to airfares? >> well, we have certainly adjusted our capacity. as we take a look out into 2025, we're going to make sure we're

mindful of demand and make sure that we're meeting demand where we can be profitable as we take a look out into the fourth quarter, i think that there is a balance coming in play, and that does bode well for airfares and ultimately for profitability. >> you mentioned corporate bookings you had the issue earlier this year, you reversed course and said, look, we're going to go back to the way we were handling bookings in the past and it is a slow rebuild but steady rebuild. what are you noticing about how far back you are >> it is the corporate and business-related traffic is up 6% quarter over quarter. we know there can be more. and what we see in our forward bookings is just that. we bottomed out at 11% down from historical share in the second quarter, but we now are down 7% on forward bookings. you see there is momentum. we added back staff. we're delivering in terms of sales and service. and adding back amenities too. >> overnight, we got the news that the machinists at boeing

rejected the latest contract, the strike will continue, for how long nobody is quite sure. you already modified how many 737 maxes. do you need to change what you're expecting next year based on the fact that the strike continues? >> we're going to be able to deliver the capacity we said we would for the remainder of this year for boeing, it is just -- i look forward to the day when they're not just a distraction we have been struggling with them for over the last five years. and as we take a look forward, we're going to make sure we're protected. i'm confident that our deliveries next year, no matter boeing coming in or not, that we can meet the capacity guides that we have we don't depend a lot on the boeing deliveries. only about 1% of maxes in regard to total capacity. so i feel really confident about us being able to deliver and managing our business, no matter what is going on at boeing. >> you said you don't want to see them be a distraction. we talked to the ceo of boeing yesterday, have you had conversations with him how do you feel about that you

see he's trying to do there? >> look, i -- we need boeing to be strong and that's what i've told kelly at the end of the day, though, we need him to deliver quality aircraft on time and i'll be welcoming that phone call when boeing says we're going to do that >> robert isom, ceo of american airlines, on a morning where they beat on the top and the bottom line. more "squawk box" after this

our next guest will give us the latest on his view of what the state of the 2024 race is and what wall street wants to hear and that's what we're going to do that's great yeah he'll be up in a second.

your business needs a network it can count on... even during the unexpected. power's out! -power's out! comcast business has you covered, with wifi backup to help keep you up and running. wifi's up. let's power on! let's power on! -let's power on! it's from the company with 99.9% network reliability. let's power on! power on with the leader in connectivity. stay connected with comcast business internet and wifi back-up or get started for $49.99 a month. plus ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. call today!

now he's here let's welcome chairman and ceo of canner fitzgerald, howard lutnick. we see every year, couple months ago and saw you for you september 11th and all you continue to do there but also bgc group, executive chairman. but today he's here because he's co-chair of the trump/vance to 25 transition team

you're not jumping the gun or anything but i assume you're going to be -- obviously you're a surrogate of the trump campaign. so we're going to hear what from you about the state of the race right now, howard. >> well, the race is obviously really tight and the key is just talk policy. i would love to talk about his policies love to talk about protecting the american worker. i think you're going to see the american workers, the union rank and file vote for donald trump which is a complete change from our theoretical idea that the unions are always democrats because donald trump is actually protecting the american workers. and i would love to talk about it. >> before we do, can i just clear some stuff from the last time you were here this was a little over a month ago. last time you were here you said trump when he talks about tariffs is using this as a

negotiation tool we have to play by the same set of rules in that appearance you said that when it comes to europe, they slap us with 100% tariffs and that's why we have to go back at them you then said that japan slaps us with 100% tariffs and you had me going with the conversation you were telling me and i was buying into it i looked it up after you left, that is not the case 8% car tariffs japan, no car tariffs. explain what's going on and where you came up with those numbers. >> okay. i simplified it. it is tariffs and trade barriers i'll give you an example when we were growing up had any of us heard of a korean car, kia and hyundai, no. in 2012, we made a deal. in 2012 where they could bring in cars and we could sell food into korea right? so we see kia and hyundai -- >> hyundai. >> hyundai, sorry.

sorry. >> we haven't heard of hyundai i still haven't heard of -- >> you got me. >> it's joe's pet peeve. >> our deal is we get to sell food there right? it was going to be like a zero deal so we bring french fries there from mcdonald's. they say, no, you need to show me the pedigree, the genealogy of the potato. won't let us bring in french fries because you can't prove that potato was grown in america so we can't import them. orange juice, they say what's the pedigree of the orange so what's happened is we didn't get the benefit of the bargain we can't sell beef, our great beef, in europe because they say the growth hormone that we use here, they don't like. our cows are bigger and stronger and better our beef is better you can't sell chicken because we wash the chicken. so it's all trade barriers,

tariffs and trade barriers. >> some are issues like safety issues korean consumers i'm just looking up ai as you say this. korean prefer german and japanese car brands over american cars part is because of the safety standards has acted as a higher trade barrier but we have a free trade agree with the u.s./korea free trade to import 50,000 vehicles a year that meet u.s. safety standards. >> a car, at a certain weight, at a certain speed in america has to stop in 100 feet. in europe, they just make it 90 feet so they can sell in our market and we can't sell in their market you know what the answer is, it's safer it sounds safer, but it's nonsense it's just designed to make it so our cars can't go there. >> is it partially because our cars are heavier we have heavier and bigger cars. >> no, no, no. they just pick a rule so that we -- look, we sell 1 million cars here. we try to sell 50,000 cars there. they're selling in both markets

so their make their rule the standard how about this the industrial standard. the industry standard. they don't accept america as part of the industry standard. it's the rest of the world standard our standard isn't part of the standard oh, come on. these are trade barriers designed to keep us out. you know what the beauty is, they're so worried, europe, about keeping us out you can't buy a car. so whether you call it 100% trade barriers or 100% tariffs, no car, 0 cars you know what we sell there -- >> tariffs designed to go after all trade barriers. >> just keep us out. you know what the beauty is, china, right, has paid their state subsidizes and pays for so they're flooding europe with these electric cars that are dirt cheap and put volkswagon out of business, destroying them. >> europeans are putting tariffs. >> they have to protect themselves they have to protect themselves. there you have it. and donald trump is the only president you ever heard talked about protecting the american

workers so that they can have jobs, bring them back here and they can work here and that's the whole point. >> can i ask one tariff related question >> sure. >> do you think when you look at the economists out there who say, look, this is a tax on the american people. do you acknowledge that at least in the short-term, possibly by the way if former president trump was the president during that presidency, for some period of time, for the products that we don't already make in the u.s., the speed with which you're going to have to start to make and more -- the good news, long term might be that you get some of these manufacturing jobs back i'm not suggesting you're 100% wrong that it's going to happen. i'm suggesting there is a period of time we will not have these products yet and therefore those products will cost more and during that period of time, whether that's 12 months, 18 months or 4 years and some of these things do take some time to get up and running, that that will be a cost to the american public >> you are correct if i raise the tariff on just

this particular idiosyncratic product. >> yes. >> right it will be more expensive. i agree. but what would i do? i wouldn't buy fiji water. i buy another brand of water yes, you are completely correct. if we don't make that particular product, that will go up anybody who says it's inflation is completely wrong because the other product hasn't gone up there's only one way to get inflation. print more money and give it to all of us with when we all have more money, everything is more expensive here was the idea. put a tariff out and say to the company f you come to america and you produce in america, you get a tax credit for your tariff. so come to america build in america and i've spoken to lots -- this came from discussions with lots of industry groups they said if you give us two years we can manufacture in america, we'll bring the -- we'll bring our production to america and if you give us back our tariff money, we're good with that. that's where that policy came

from. >> news cycles are very fascinating. i know you want to talk policy i don't know is the news cycle over on the f word, the fascist word we saw kamala harris -- >> oh, stop. >> she was all over that "atlantic" piece blackman out with the focus of your -- >> that is -- >> howard is jewish. >> there's a question mark given that you have people who worked in his administration who no longer think he should be in office, who say, you know, bolten was on tv last night, also suggesting -- it's not just one person there's a whole bunch of people -- >> they're trotting them all out. >> who are not even considered political people but were considered civil servants for a very long time, who worked in the military, who don't believe from a character perspective, they think he's disqualified >> this is going to be so much fun. so, generals, above two star, are all politics and if you don't understand that, then today we're going to teach you a little bit of lesson of politics.

every human being has an opinion. there's no civil servant okay the obama administration is eight years long so you get promoted. who did they promote, people who believe your side. trump comes in he thinks just like you do, these are generals he forgets that they could be democratic generals or republican generals. so he picks mattis, milley, kelly, mcmaster, democrat, democrat, democrat if you're not certain that i'm right, go look at their aides. look at their aides. who they bring with them obama appointees come with them into the white house now, eventually they get fired because they don't agree with him. how about this, tillerson. mattis and kelly met every morning. someone told me the ore day. met every morning to plot against his policies i just want to remind you, donald trump was elected the president of the united states of america by the people

why, why, why did these people decide they were elected president, they should make the decisions? it's just wrong. >> well, you may think it's wrong on one end but the flip side is think about why would these people believe that they -- that the country was in such danger. what you don't hear is that there were people inside other administrations who had such a visceral reaction and such an anxious reaction and i think that there are a lot of americans, especially those who are voting for harris or thinking of voting for harris, who have this anxiety and say to themselves, how are we supposed to think about this, right >> i just think it's unbelievable that she gets on television and calls him a fascist. he already was the president we had before covid, we had 3% growth 3% wage growth and gdp growth. inflation below 2% he wasn't a fascist. he hired the wrong people. we agree now he has disgruntled former employees. right? all these people got fired

who got fired in the biden administration you want to have a fun thought when we pulled out of afghanistan, was it really stupid and a mistake like we left $80 billion -- >> let's stipulate that -- >> was it a mistake? it wasn't if you think about it. if i get you to quickly move out of your house. and leave everything behind. when you get to your new house, what's the first thing you have to buy a whole bunch of new furniture so if i leave $80 billion worth of equipment behind, what's the first thing the military industrial complex is going to do, buy more stuff so who hates donald trump, who hates more, dick cheney. of course dick cheney. what's dick cheney's legacy, let's take out iraq which donald trump says is the dumbest thing that's ever happened in recent military exercise. why? iraq and iran they kill each other for what, thousands of years. we take out iraq and we free iran to try to take on the west.

>> i just think that the un -- the unhinged left meets the unhinged -- it's really great tv to see this. we don't see all this stuff. >> i'm not saying this is unhinged >> i'm not saying you're unhinged a little bit. >> you better not be saying that. >> but yesterday on grudge, it was hitler hitler was -- it was hitler, hitler, hitler, hitler all day yesterday. it used to be people would whisper, now it's out in the open he doesn't like jewish people and his daughter and grand kids are j eewish. >> it's bad tv. >> john kelly, i'm trying to figure out where he comes from on this. >> he's one guy, though. >> but he had some pretty -- just because you said some things that basically he's a political appointee and a big democrat. >> i said he is a democrat can we just go over that for a second. >> someone said none of that happened i was there for that

none of it happened. kelly is disgruntled. >> donald trump becomes a president. and there's a chief of staff the history of the chief of staff, because i run transition, i study the organization of the white house. >> sure. >> everybody in the white house historically reports to the chief of staff >> correct. >> the chief of staff controls, has something called the staff secretary that chooses every piece of paper you see there's a director of operations every single person can get in the white house or on the plane. the chief scheduler, they all report to him and he reports to you. you're locked in a cage. go listen to the nixon tapes he's literally scheming to try to get anything past his chief of staff so donald trump comes in he fires his first chief of staff. >> right brings in john kelly. >> of course he did. then he fires who? his second chief of staff. what does he want? eh wants a chief of staff like howard lutnick has doesn't stand between me and all the xecutives. the new administration will have

a chief of staff who works closely with him and who works for him instead of is -- there was a book that just came out called "the gate keepers". >> yeah. >> and what you would see if you studied the chief of staff role in the history, most of these presidents are just lazy and donald trump isn't lazy. >> there's also a massive amount of incoming. who works in the front office for a doctor same thing, right? >> i need to have seven, eight executives report to me. one person reporting to me, you make me crazy. >> howard, for those folks looking at this skeptically what they're saying is there's a lot of folks who worked in that administration who have been very public about saying, not just that they're not voting for him, which is unusual unto itself, but being public about saying he shouldn't be in the white house. that is very different -- we haven't heard that from previous -- >> about john kelly. this came out yesterday. >> i understand what. >> his vice president pence's chief of staff i've avoided commenting on leaks or rumors, even lies as it

relates to my time with white house -- general kelly's comments about trump are too egregious to ignore. i was with each of them more than most and his commentary is patently false for kelly it's a he said -- base your entire argument on a guy that you don't even know if it's -- >> i'm not making -- >> yesterday that's what it was all about. >> we quoted from that article and i asked bill about it. >> guy at the atlantic is questionable, too. >> what i'm asking is slightly different question this is not just one or two or three. there have been dozens of people who worked in that administration who have been out there publicly and are either not voting for him or publicly saying that he shouldn't be in this office in a very explicit way. >> anyone who didn't get fired any who didn't get fired really, you're going to go and get every disgruntled. >> you may be right. my question is why have we not seen that -- there have been lots of people who left other administrations over the years. >> don't say left. >> people leave all the time

fired. who has been fired by the biden administration how about i left $80 billion worth of stuff behind, because it was done on purpose so they have to buy more come on. you have to think through and make it fair okay this concept of just taking disgruntled former employees and raising them up and having them have a snarky comment when they started as democrats, it's just silly. >> how many more october surprises between now and the election there will be quite a few more. >> there will be but donald trump is really caring -- i have a statistic for you. two third of the american work force, all right, have a high school education one third has a college education. the average life expectancy of the high school education, seven years less seven years less it's not the air they breathe. it's not the food. it's not the medicare. deeton won a nobel prize for this it's a nobel prize despair. if you take the factory away,

nafta, take the american autoworker and move it to mexico and put them out of work you bring in the korean cars and you put them out of work you gut american workers where do they go next? and then you open the border and bring in fentanyl? and you actually gutting the american work force and that's why it's going to change we can build in america. we can build in america. but we have to have tariffs to protect the workers and we have to bring it home. >> howard, thank you for coming in thank you for taking all of our questions. and i hope if president trump becomes the president again that you have great success thank you. >> thank you for having kevin on he's a rock star i love the guy really smart. >> may be the next fed chair since you're in part of the transition team. >> you have to know great people when we come back, a vote of confidence for peloton this morning. the stock jumping after green light's david einhorn believes the stock is undervalue. we'll look at whether or not the stock has bottomed don't go anywhere. "squawk" returns after this.

where are my keys? (vo) don't wait while memory and thinking issues pile up. these issues may seem like normal aging but could be due to a buildup of amyloid plaques in the brain. amyloid can build up over time. the sooner you talk to your doctor, the more options you may have. visit amyloid.com for additional information.

welcome back to "squawk box. peloton shares up 35% so far in october. this after the company scored a legal win. costco partnership and a major investor endorsement bottom man for the peloton

stock. job fortman is here to weigh in. do you own it, peloton, sir? >> i do, andrew. i enjoy it but no, peloton is going lower the reason it's trying too hard not to be what it is, an integrated hardware company. peloton went public five years ago, soared in 2020. as quickly as it flew, it fell the stock was under 30 bucks in february 2020. over 150 a year later and back under 30 a year after that now it's 6 and change. now the one thing integrated hardware company must do is consistently make reliable, beautiful things that customers will buy at high margins an extend with software and services, like apple instead, peloton released a combination of low margin hits like the guide, flop like the tread all while the flagship bikes haven't been updated in four years and seeing sales decline. i know, david einhorn made a passionate plea it was

undervalued. the new ceo does what they expect, hike customer fees with 11%, after a year investors will see turn dramatically accelerate unless the company also launches beautiful hardware that inspires an upgrade cycle, refreshes that "it" factor. hiking fees without hardware hit, it's like playing jenga it eventually trumbles. >> they have some kind of cushion here >> yeah. andrew, on the other hand, we saw peloton's lows in august under 3 bucks a share. it's heading hire. the reason is they finally dug its way out from disastrous decisions. first spending too much on manufacturing and delivery and boxed the tread design and brought in a ceo who seemed to think it was a content company with all of that out of the way, peloton can develop the right hardware road map and focus on delighting existing customers as cfo explained last month

peloton's current financial structure doesn't rely on hopes of a hit product for things to work in the near term. as long as members don't flee in droe droves, there's time to figure things out. they launched and connected fitness. lululemon dropped a product. so we should expect an update on peloton ceo search a week from today when the company reports earnings as long as the board picks a product savvy leader who understands the value of smart marketing, peloton will be just fine there's plenty of rebuilding happening in fitness culture nike is doing that that gives peloton room to figure things out, too >> how often do you use your own peloton. >> not often enough. you know. >> are you selling it? >> it's just so big, right so you kind of look at it. is it worth trying to pack the thing up -- i really should use it and so -- >> really my wife was using it then i got on. this is pretty good. i still -- i got to work a ride

or two 40s, late 40s. >> you look good. >>eer only a few months apart. >> fighting the dad bod. >> but one thing we're not fighting. >> what's that >> on the other hand newsletter. there's a qr code if you don't have it yet. scan that with your phone. or type in cnbc and get the full text of both arguments every week. >> there you go. they should allow -- they should put cnbc on your peloton that would change the whole traj trajectory. >> some pedowould peddle harder. when we come back, north islands glen hutchens will join us on the markets, the fed and the countdown to the presidential election. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

it's time to feed the dogs real food in the right amount.

a healthy weight can help dogs live a longer and happier life. the farmer's dog makes weight management easy with fresh food pre-portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come.

all right. welcome back, everybody. joining us right now on set is glenn hutchens, north island chairman and part of the ownership group of the boston celtics, which means he just got his ring this week with the championship it's really great to have you here, glenn. >> nice to be here when i was here last time i promised to bring you the ring, so here it is. >> take a look at this this is really cool. you thought you knew this stuff, but this is how it's delivered on a rotating pedestal within this >> i thought you were -- you're not doing that with your mind. oh, okay >> there's a question about these rings. >> right. >> each owner gets one, you can get more, you can order them how does it work >> different policies. yes, you can order them from the company that make them for instance, my wife got one. >> dare i ask the uncouth question, the cost of such a ring. >> these go to the players and the owners, as part of the ownership. >> that's part of the deal. >> and then there are different prices for different >> if you want extra --

>> andrew, if you have to ask the price, probably can't afford it. >> show the one on your hand already from 2000, just to get a glimpse of how big these things are. >> right. >> it was a phenomenal first opening game i actually watched it at home. the whole thing, stayed up late to see it. you guys look good >> yeah. the theme of this year is try to run it back. there are three reasons why teams in my view don't repeat. the first is injuries. right? and you'll remember -- basketball fans remember in 2009 we won with this ring in '08 and 2009 kevin garnett got injured, our star player, and we didn't get through the finals. then 2010, we got through the finals and in game six kendrick perkins got injured and we couldn't compete in crunch time in game seven. injuries can change the outcome of the season with a very, very good team. the second is what pat riley used to refer to as the disease

of me. which is the players get -- more focussed on being celebrities, the team comes apart, there's jealousies and rivalries and all that and this is such a uniquely bonded team that's not something that troubles me in fact, the commentary says -- not something i'm sharing privately, but commentary says, if anything, the lack of playing time jason tatum got at the olympics has bonded the team more than anything else. >> i bet >> and so, but they're really -- >> good have some improve. there's some healthy intrateam competition. >> but the point -- that's a good point but this team itself, joe, is such a team. the article in the paper the other day, we use math to design an offense and that math is around the ultimate teamwork, finding the best shot any time and players are taking shots >> which is why are uconn was able to repeat same thing. >> but the third is, fun and interesting to watch, we won the

championship and went to have a parade every other general manager went to his office and wrote on his white board, how do we beat the celtics and started working at becoming better. >>. >> they named a bridge after bill russell you see how many rings he won. >> i saw bill with his rings. >> how many? >> i think bill got 11 and eight in a row bob was there for the ring bearing. he had six >> he was university of -- down at coached the royals for a while. did you hear the cincinnati royals for a while we had an nba team >> tommy, who may rest in peace as an owner -- between being a player and coach had nine. >> yeah. >> so we're 18 >> how many total for the celtics? >> 18. >> on the day of the parade, the whole quantitative staff, we have a huge quantitative staff wearing 18 is greater than 12.

what's that? and they would say, well the five in minneapolis don't count. so the point is that the celtics have 18 championships. the lakers have 17 >> i think it's cool the way you keep saying we and our i don't think i saw you out on the court. >> boston has 18 >> how is the sale going >> you know, it's just getting started. i don't think there's anything to report. >> are you rolling into the next deal or stay if. >> i'm not sure. you'll not be the first to know. >> oh my goodness. >> i'll come tell you guys i haven't made a decision yet and it's very early in the process. nothing to talk about really. >> it seems like this is such a point of pride and joy for you >> it is but you know, the grossbeck family that brought me into the transaction with them and done a terrific job of managing the team has made the decision they want to sell my goal will be to facilitate

what they need to do to their family to make them be successful i will follow their lead >> okay. >> glenn, let's talk about the economy. let's talk about the election. where do things stand on both from your perspective? >> you know, little nervous here this morning, becky, because my -- the problem i have here is that the economy might just be too good and if you look at the imf report that came out yesterday, and they talked about how the u.s. has the best economy among the developed countries, it's the second increase in a year in the forecast u.s. economic growth the gap that's being created between us and the g7 companies, led by investments coming out of the chips act and green energy plus the amassing of private

capital led by ai but lots of other things going on, it really -- for a contrarian like me, that's a nervous time. if you know what i mean. >> yeah. >> did you see him >> i saw a little bit. >> he said it was totally juiced by the fed it's not really organic or any of the things you -- >> well, i don't know if it's juiced by the fed. >> that's what he said and fiscal authority. >> well, they're one this partners in crime. >> and extra spending. by keeping rates at 0 for so long, it enabled fiscal spending >> look, i think that's a good point. i'm talking about the current economy. he's talking about a broader sweep of things. one of the interesting things that's happened over the course of the past interest rate cycle is how well the economy has tolerated high interest rates. fed policy across administrations, you know, across republican and democratic sort of chairs has -- since 9/11

has basically taken the view that you had to bring interest rates down close to 0 in order to stimulate economic activity in periods of crisis. >> and we had a fair amount of crises. >> you remember the '80s and '90s how great the economy was and we were at 8 and 9%. >> that's right. i agree. >> it's weird. i've been wondering about it. >> you're a fed guy. you're a big fed watcher. >> and former federal reserve board. >> it surturns out that higher interest rates -- >> so much for that. now we're going back down. >> well, we're still pretty reasonably high interest rates, right? everybody is talking about this new fed speak this new neutral rate will be something closer to 4, 5%. but turns out that all the stuff that gets funded when money is free, both government spending because you take the view that interest rates are so low we can

spend. or investment spending because the business case is for mediocre investments is made possible by long interest rates. turns out to be healthy. having a positive price for capital is probably healthier place to be in our economy point one. and point two is that it all comes back in the end to what entrepreneurs do and business people do investing and building companies the incredible -- i think what we're finally seeing right now is productivity. the investment led productivity coming through and driving a lot of the growth. and that's what mainly distinguishes united states from europe europe had -- we talk about who caused inflation but it turns out that europe had about the same inflation that the united states did. so it's not so -- the global inflation -- >> i thought it was higher. >> global inflation doesn't really vary that much i'm not sure -- >> little bit higher.

>> but not other a sustained time period. what's more distinguished is the much higher growth of the u.s. economy. >> right. >> as a result of our investment, our productivity and entrepreneurship that kind of thing. >> is that at risk or is that safe a lot of people question whether we're going to do things that chip away with that as we deal with bigger and bigger deficits. >> look, the next thing we have to deal with is cutting spending, increasing taxes, balancing the budget other a long time period, like the team i was a part of in the white house did in the early '90s. and from point of view of you know, how that affects private sector activity, actually have the government in the marketplace for less borrowing turns out to be -- there's a phenomenon called crowding out where the federal government can crowd out the private sector

access to capital. and so i think it's actually better for theover all economy for there to be less borrowing at the -- by the federal government while there is some stimulus that you get from near-term growth from cutting taxes or stimulating the economy generally, all you're doing is borrowing that from the future you take that from the future, bring that into -- >> crowding out, no one talks about anymore because of mmt it's very weird. >> low interest rates. but you talk to people who are running the big financial institutions in this town and they're -- we don't want to get too technical, cover ratios and minor issues here an there in the financing market and the last thing, the fear one has is the only time we're really going to get to deal with this fiscal problem is when there's a problem. right? getting out ahead of it. so i think that -- we have to

get past this election. >> the rtreasury markets say no more type of situation >> you have those -- exactly so you could have a spike in interest rates you could have a little bit of backup in the markets. the sort of things that become the signal of where you're issuing a little too much debt. >> yeah. >> i'm not predicting any crisis right now. i'm just saying that we need -- i just hope we don't have to get to a crisis to deal with these situations that's how i think about it, right? >> glenn, we love having you in here thank you for bringing the ring, showing it off. >> any other questions for you >> i do. >> garnett, great actor. on top of everything very tall. >> i know. i've stood next to him the ore day. >> you're pretty tall. >> he was there. not in this environment. i'm short in that environment. >> normal people talk you're pretty tall. i have a million other questions. if you'll come back, we would love to have an extended one before the election. >> okay. let's do that. you got a deal you and me, one on one

>> i dream of a parlay like adam sandler had -- rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago. >> all you have to do is look at yields yields are jumping because we expected initial claims to be lower we have hurricane issues we have boeing strike. we have layoffs at boeing. washington state claims should go up. but they're going down 227,000 on initial claims. 227,000. that's the lightest since last week in september and those last weeks in september were the lightest since may of last year. excuse me, i'm sorry, may of this year. but continuing claims going the other way. 1,897,000. a whisker shy of 1.9 million that's the highest level, of course, since november of '21. it was in november of '21 the last time we were over 1.9

million. so continuing claims moving up a bit but initial claims expected to be higher came in lower that really is a surprise. i'm not sure what the gps is on claims remember, holiday, of course, and certain issues we always need to be aware of. but there's always something going on the reason we have initial claims are for things like boeing strikes, but of course we always try to pull these things out and rebalance. but it is what it is interest rates today, well, there's some notable features. we had five sessions in a row up until yesterday. where ten year note yields kept surpassing the previous date's high yield or under the previous day's low price. in order for that to occur for a sixth-straight session, we need to get above 425.5 and it looks like it's a possibility, but the street may be broken. and the only reason i mention it is really since that big job jobs report after the 50 bases point cut that the markets

dissed completely, we have seen this type of technical momentum that really has kept many investors on the right side of what has been a very rapid rise in interest rates. we still have a lot of data points yet to come but at this point, as i said, right around 4.25 should be a very important psychological point for a variety of reasons joe, back to you >> okay, rick. thanks stay with us for more on the data and the markets let's bring in shannon, chief investment officer at nb private wealth as well as a cnbc contributor and own steve liesman. steve, are you ready >> you heard me mumbling we go to you first. >> real quick, i'm not seeing, joe, the effects of this hurricane in the jobless claims. i think that was when rick said we expected them to be up, it was because of that. there's a little pop -- not a little pop, 4,000 in florida i don't see it in north carolina i don't know if the hurricane pass-through is yet to come but

it seems to be gone. very interesting as to whether or not and how much it shows up in the jobs numbers when we get to november. very quickly i do want to point this out, i haven't got a chance to talk about this because i've been involved with the poll, but it looks like a pause is being built in, joe. if you look at the probabilities, guys, 95% for november 70% for december and we're going to show 48% for january, but it's actually now down to 47 after this number this morning, joe. so, they think the fed goes a couple more quarters, but then the pause comes in january that's where we're built in right now. >> shannon, i don't know you well enough what you were thinking about when steve said that, but you were kind of smiling. there wasn't an eye roll you agreeing with them >> if you disagree, you'll be on the show more often. >> okay, great so what i was thinking about is we've been insulating ours for the next couple of prints because we were anticipating a lot of noise from both the

hurricanes and also the port strike, right? so we have been essentially saying that the fed can throw out these next x number of prints because of these disruptions. and yet we come in here with claims number that's much better than anticipated continuing claims are a little longer we know that we know there's a protracted time to find a job right now we know job openings have come down to steve's point, it's interesting because i feel like we have sort of given the fed a pass on these next couple of data points based on the disruption in the economy, and yet we get a number like this. what are we supposed to take away from this maybe continued acceleration in the economy, maybe leading economic indicators are more accurate and predictive than we had thought compared with coincident and lagging indicators like jobs. >> right rick, you're still with us claims are hard to -- what do you call them, rick? it's hard to read a lot into them sometimes, isn't it >> yeah, no. i wouldn't disagree. but it's -- initial claims is the best kind of weekly, close

to realtime barometer we can get for the jobs market. i would think the best way to approach this is to really let the market devine it at this point. i think expectations versus reality is why we're getting the move in interest rate. i look a little different than the guest and steve. 227,000 when you're expecting an up number, maybe there's additional pressure. you know, there's a counterfactual aspect to the notion that maybe all those issues with hurricanes, boeing strike, port strike, maybe they did elevate claims but the fact that this number is down might be for other reasons. we just don't know i do think that we've seen some of these service pmis and some of the other aspects of measuring the economy start to improve just a bit but the tough part is, trying to handicap all the influence of the election, just less than two weeks away whether it's all the strange things that we read in newspapers or hear people say that are 2 years old that are

supposed to move the needle or just the notion, as i've been saying for almost half a year, that this election will draw attention to debt and deficits and put upward pressure on interest rates and that's exactly what happened, joe. a lot of these things may change a bit in several plus weeks. >> only because the candidates made it so >> okay. i would rather get leesman and you, santelli, on the kevin war sh interview >> let's come back to that it's an interesting discussion. >> did you see it, rick? >> pardon? >> did you see kevin warsh, were you watching warsh he was critical of the fed. >> kind of >> no. i didn't see it. i apologize. but it sounds like i really wish i wouldn't have missed it, then. >> it was in your wheelhouse looking at the role of the federal reserve in what's the right word, motivating, allowing, lubricating spending of congress. >> yeah.

i can't believe you missed it. what were you doing? >> manipulating. that's better. >> okay. they keep saying we have to go where do we got to go? >> got to go got to go. >> thanks, rick, thank you, joe. thank you. >> thank you, everyone when we come back, a special conversation with the ceo of general catalyst this morning, the firm announcing billions of dollars in new fundraising "squawk box" will be right back. glp-1 drugs used in weight loss treatments are a global

blockbuster, even with disliked and inconvenient injections. study results are arriving monthly from lexarias patented oral delivery technology trials. lexaria bioscience. this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo

[♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's healing formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond.

♪ welcome back to squawk we tole you about questions about election betting that was takes place on polymarket. speculation that four accounts possibly linked to themselves by one person were inflating donald trump's odds there dealbook out with a report this morning about this polymarket now saying it doesn't believe that the accounts were artificially inflating trump's odds and providing more information about who is behind those bets the company saying one person is responsible, attached to those four accounts. it's a french national with extensive trading experience and a financial services background. he is behind about $28 million in trump bets from those four accounts polymarket said it had made contact with the trader as part of an investigation being done with outside experts they verified the details of p

polymarket statement it's worth noting a couple of things. >> what's his name the french auto -- >> as you know, hopefully, u.s. citizens are not allowed to trade on polymarket, it is based in new york, by the way. but the marketplace, if you will, is only for those who are foreigners. >> yeah. >> what i think is interesting about this, couple things. there is -- we should mention there is no true regulator of polymarket in the same way so there's no s.e.c. that oversees this, if you will. >> even though -- >> i'm saying the statements that they're making, hopefully are true, but there's not similar -- there's not a regulator. >> not someone that would say you're in trouble if you're lying. >> potentially i don't know the full extent maybe there's a regulator in europe that would take a look. something like that. the ore piece of this is if you were really trying to inflate the market or trying to

manipulate that piece of the market, you would have actually made big trades. these were small trades trying to actually buy in at lower -- at the lowest possible price one other piece to this. this is the part we don't know, we don't know whether there was another arbitrage related to this polymarket is not -- has not addressed the issue of was this person also buying stock, for example. so if you could -- if one was getting pushed up, is that arbitrage on the other there's still questions here about what's exactly happening. >> it could have always been someone who just really thought that he would make money by doing it >> it's possible having said that -- >> and also 28 million, how much is being -- is changing, it's billions, is it not? >> i don't know the full extent. >> i think it would be hard for $28 million over this extended period of time to continue this kind of sort of pushing it up.

>> and a lot of the other services are showing the same in your opinions. >> interesting point, this individual has agreed not and they have said that they will not allow him effectively to create additional accounts to trade this because he was doing it under four different accounts so there's a couple pieces to this >> struggling with how to say elon musk in french. is that good, elone muske. >> fascinating to watch people trading and betting on all this. and it's a new development coming up, an interview you don't want to miss with the ceo of general kcatalyst "squawk box" is coming right back ered. so we don't have to worry. empower. what's next. (luke) homes-dot-com is a new, elevated home-shopping experience. beautiful design, tremendously rich content,

and, my favorite touch, it's the only site that always connects you to the listing agent. feels like a work of art! (marci) lovely. what about the app? (luke) uh-oh! look what i did. it's ringing. hello? hello? (marci) they can't hear you. (luke) hello? (marci) because you glued a frame over the microphone. (luke) i think i've glued the frame over the microphone. (vo) ding dong! homes-dot-com. we've done your home work. when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset. so how do you invest in gold? sandstorm gold royalties is a publicly traded company offering a diversified portfolio of mining royalties in one simple investment. learn more about a brighter way to invest in gold at sandstormgold.com.

i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises).

hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. box. new this morning venture capitalist firm racing

$8.5 billion joining us is hemant taneja, the ceo and managing partner at general catalyst the firm has back some of the biggest names, snap, stripe, and so many others congratulations. >> thanks for having me. >> one of the big questions about what's happening right now is you guys have raised a lot of money. a lot of venture firms are raising money. the question is, where is the opportunity today and where is the opportunity on the harvesting side on the other end because it appears right now there are a lot of companies that have remained private. >> we think of ourselves as a global investment and transformation company if you think about what's happening in the world today you have this whole idea that every company is trying to be more resilient after the pandemic, wars, and energy crises in a.i., defense and energy,

health care, so there's massive transition in the industries happening and you have the whole applied a.i. movement how do we leverage those technologies in these moments so these are actually really, really big ideas. you need the capital ways to build companies that can be part of the transformation there. on the other side from the li liquidity standpoint there's a lot of work to do. you have companies like stripe and spacex that want to compound in the private markets i think there's good reasons for it for now on the other side you get companies with 100, 200 million revenue, growing nicely but i don't think they're venture darlings and i don't think they're pit for public either. what's to those? that's where the industry has to mature and think about new capital solutions. >> what do you think that looks like i ask, some people this is a tough fund-raising environment right now, because there haven't

been enough exits on the other end so u.s. pension funds and others are stretched because they're not giving the capital back to give to others. >> this is a tough one we have to get liquidity around a lot of the companies built in the last seven years but at the same time the opportunity is massive. the way we think about it, at the core of who we are, working with the most ambitious founders as soon as possible. so seed and ambition are the core we can do this globally given that's our mandate and create companies that aren't naturally going to sell in the ecosystem that's the core. then how do you drive these transformations happening today. >> how much bigger are the checks now you talked about a.i. and one of the things that's happening, a competitive advantage is literally capital. >> exactly two things are happening one is seeding companies we start with small tech but we

always have. but if the companies are on the path we they can take a lot of capital and we want to be there for the long term. applied a.i. is interesting. >> explain what you mean by applied a.i. >> there's a lot of infrastructure being developed around foundation models you hear about open a.i., an lop eccand others. then the question is, what are you going to do with these models and where do you build businesses that use a.i. which in our opinion is a transformation play. the biggest opportunity today, and we're focused on this, everywhere this is offshoring you're going to on shore with productivity >> you think the stuff that's offshore now is pulled back here, for example? >> reporter: i think it gets pulled with a.i. first companies. we're building those these a.i. models are good enough to be able to capture

that value and build highly valuable companies at a high margin and appreciated by the public markets the next few years. >> what do you think of the large language models, do you think they will have a huge amount of value or is it the applied piece of it? >> i think the models they all get commoditized over time one of those companies launched, the next launches at tenth of the cost, that's good for the market you want these things to be commoditized the one that will capture long-term value is the one that builds the tooling because the adoption of the models in the enterprise is not as trivial as we think you need to adapt those models to those industries. you need to have change management because a.i. and human workforces in the gat ts. >>reo see you, thank you coming up, top stocks to watch ahead of the opening bell

on wall street stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ide. when you work with someone who knows a lot and cares even more... you can do this. ...you're unstoppable. (♪♪) wow... are you kidding me? you can do this. at truist, we believe the same is true for banking. it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed.

is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow! ♪♪ amazing. jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley.

welcome back, everybody. dom dominic chu is here with a look at premarket movers. >> shares of southwest turning

negative after being up 3% on the third quarter beat across the board. earlier southwest announcing six new board members avoiding a proxy battle with elliott manager over control of that board. bob jordan will be on "squawk on the street" in the next hour a must watch interview there dow inc. 1.5% at this point after better than expected profits and revenues in the third quarter, largely thanks to gains in the specialty and packaging division and a strategic review in europe so those shares up 1.5%. and hasbro down 4% revenue coming in below expectations, the toy giant seeing contractions in revenue across the board despite magic in the gathering game so hasbro down about 1% becky. back to you folks. >> thanks, dom

let's take a final look at the market dow futures down by about 60 points boeing has had problems there, and a couple of other dow come po independents. ibm was the biggest pressure rl earlier this morning the 10 year is at 4.22 the two year at 4.05 that does it for us today. join us back here tomorrow right now it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ some aerial pictures from a chevron oil rig in the gulf of mexico today, a vital region when it comes to american energy production, especially with prices at the pump at the lowest levels since february today. good morning welcome to "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange cramer is on the oil rig in the gulf futures bounce o