Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 25, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

5:00 pm
perhaps, about whether there might be a pause on rates. >> whether we need to be on inflation alert again, exactly. >> we'll watch all of those things at the same time, in a very busy week for all of us that does it for "overtime," but there's more "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketplace in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." back at record, the nasdaq at an all-time high for the first time in three months with big tech earnings around the corner. and apple's health goals the tech giant reportedly looking to expand into a new category where they're setting their sights and companies being impacted. nike losing ground to the competition. another sign of a shaky foundation for housing and what the options market says about capri now that the tapestry deal is a no-go coming to you live, on the desk
5:01 pm
tonight, we start off with nvidia's record run. the ai darling stock ending the day just short of all-time highs, up more than 16% this month. the chipmaker briefly topping apple in market cap. the world's two most valuable companies neck in neck ahead of the week most stocks gearing up to deliver results. alphabet, microsoft, meta, amazon and apple on deck will next week be the moment of truth for big tech and the ai trade? i guess people will say, you know, what are they going to spend, and is it going to prove that nvidia's market cap, pe is worth it, tim? >> well, that is the question, and i think we've talked about a lighter capex load might actually be something to rally the mega caps on i think at times, especially we know with meta that the year of efficiency led to a lot of gains, people have been concerned. i think with google, who is going to report on tuesday,
5:02 pm
there's a dynamic that i think there is some need to see some follow-through here. i think ultimately as we go into this period, if you look at the nasdaq 100 or the qqqs and the mag seven outside of tesla, have not made new highs, going all the way back to july semis have retaken some leadership if you look at that period from september 9th, there's been a couple of different periods the market has used to both rotate out of growth, back into value and this and that. from september 9th or shortly after we got that payroll number and some reaffirmation of the consumer and economy, you actually saw the growth come back in the semiconductors they've outperformed the s&p by almost 7%, just since september 7th. will they make new highs we haven't made new highs on semis since july i get the sense that's where we are. i think everything we're going to hear from the hyper-scalers, this is a very important part, they've got to be there. >> it just seems like that move
5:03 pm
that nvidia had over the past two weeks, three weeks, has been pretty incredible. you had a pretty substantial pullback, last quarter we had concerns about the blackwell chip supply and demand, would they meet demand, would that lead to a pullback in revenue, had we pulled expectations too far forward. we've reversed and we're approaching what seems to be us asking the same question again, which is will the capex be there to kind of support the multiple and the revenue expectations i would imagine that the other hyper-scalers are continuing to spin, because, as tim said, it does seem somewhat of a situation where you have to spin, be in the game this is essentially what all of these are leaning on in terms of margin expansion and supporting the multiples they have gotten i'm not sure if next week necessarily is going to be the, quote, unquote, moment of truth, only because i think for some of them, google, for example, amazon for another example, some of the expectations, the multiples reflect that
5:04 pm
expectations have pulled back a bit. i think from one mag seven player to the other, the expectations and the earnings multiple reflect that perhaps there is an opportunity to trade here ahead of earnings. >> i guess when we're thinking about what we're going to talk about on the show, we thought -- >> we thought long and hard. >> we do, we have planning meetings and talk about this >> a healthy debate. >> we've been meeting since wednesday to talk about the show [ laughter ] >> i think the big question here with big tech earnings, does it confirm the overarching thesis that has been driving the tech trade, and that is the robustness of the ai trade and so to that end, grasso, can we separate it can we separate what amazon, you know, alphabet, microsoft, are going to say from nvidia's performance, or are they inextricably intertwined >> they're all clients of nvidia nvidia is still 80% to 85% of the market
5:05 pm
nvidia is the one that's actually getting revenue now, not sometime in the future can you separate them? sure, you have done that nvidia is up 200%, 185%, the rest of them are not so we have separated them already. but wouldn't you say this is somewhat priced to perfection? and i've been positive on the market, i've been positive on nvidia i missed nvidia. i got too cute around the 110 level, thought it was going to come back in that ship has sailed i'm going to wait until we do a market is in turmoil special, probably to buy the next leg of nvidia for me. >> you're cheeky, grasso >> it's true, right? so, when you really think about it, though, what do we have? the bar has been lowered for earnings i think most of these companies can step over them but when you look at the year-to-date performance on most of them, i think they need a breather. >> let's say, mike, that a lot
5:06 pm
of these hyper-scalers say, we're not going to spend as much, we don't anticipate the spend to be at the same pace as we have been spending of late. what happens to this trade, mike is it a positive, as tim posits? >> a positive for the hyper-scalers if you're talking about amazon and microsoft and so on. i think it could be okay for them first of all, i kind of push back a little bit on the notion that they aren't participants yet. because, of course, aws, azure, these are products that are material for these businesses already. we can't ignore that now, have they developed ai out to the level that i think everybody is anticipating? i think people are sort of losing the difference, essentially, between their cloud products, which do depend heavily on nvidia gpus, i was a long-time subscriber to aws and we were spending quite a lot of money to basically get access to
5:07 pm
that so you have to separate that from an ai product that's recognizable to the average consumer, something like a chatgpt. i think that's what everybody thinks is going to fall out, not recognizing these companies are generating billions of dollars off of their cloud stack, which is a large part of where that nvidia money is coming from. >> the consumer side of it may not be the biggest sort of gainer of it all it could be the enterprise side, which we're not necessarily hearing about at this point. tim, let's say the hyper-scalers say we're not going to spend as much and that's a positive for them negative for nvidia. >> sure, yeah. i do think that there's been kind of this dynamic that that's driven the nvidia numbers and has allowed the street to kind of project what it's going to look like next quarter i think google is a good example, because they are kind of caught in the middle of this. i think we want to understand what the roi is on their spend they, as much as anybody we want to know what the spend is, the roi on the spend then you get back to their core
5:08 pm
consumer business. their core search, obviously on some level this dynamic which may be getting threatened, but is expected to kind of grow, i think the street is at 12.4 parse, the consensus, and the eps line is supposed to grow roughly 13.5%. it leads you to a place where google, of all of these things, i think should be the most defensive based on the multiple. relative to itself and the eps where the street is, this is a $200 stock if it's trading at 20 times. and that's something i think is interesting. >> remind me not to go behind tim. he makes all the points and i'm here to just kind of co s-sign them i think if you're concerned about whether the trade can continue, you do look to alphabet i think the recent price action, vis-a-vis that and the trade has essentially priced in that margin for error. >> for more on what to expect, let's bring in jeffries analyst. brian, great to have you with us i'm going to pick up exactly
5:09 pm
where we left off, and that is alphabet you think that alphabet is the most controversial name because it's got to prove that what it's spending on is worth it. what are you looking to hear this quarter >> yeah, good afternoon, thanks for having me. google has had the worst sentiment of all the names going in the setup is better because everyone is so negative. as tim pointed out, the multiple is super low, it's trading at a low teen ebitda multiple, which is very cheap relative to historic i think the big concern around, are they going to monetize ai, what happens to search, what's the new cfo going to say, google has been a company that has literally given investors no outlook, no milestones, nothing that they're going to hit. they're like, either, you invest in it because you believe in us, but we're not going to give you anything google, meta, microsoft, everyone else gives mile markers. so i think everyone has been,
5:10 pm
hey, i can't really understand this and it's no doubt why the sentiment is so poor, so we're looking for clues around, will the cfo change the outlook and the way that they've guided historically, no one is expecting a lot. and ultimately the search has been good, advertiser checks have been good so i think it's more around, how are they going to monetize ai, what's happening in core search, these new ai assistants we're using, are they taking away from our ability to go to google. we don't think that's happened obviously, youtube is a big focus. we think youtube is doing very well so overall, we think a lot of the negativity is priced in and we would agree, it definitely has the lowest expectation going in. >> what are the markets that you want to hear from googlewhen i comes to monetizing ai i'm curious as to, you know, what the advertising is like and what they make on, let's say, an advertisement that's placed next to a gemini answerto a query
5:11 pm
versus in the search, in the traditional search business. >> yeah, i think we would love to hear that i think the big thing, you just want to hear that core search is good we're obviously in an election year you have a lot of online spend many advertisers are worried about a hangover because we have such a robust advertising market, what's going to happen they don't typically give us an outlook on that. but i think if core search stays solid, youtube is good, and they continue to demonstrate inroads in ai with gemini, which we think they are -- again, we're really early we're bottom of the first inning, maybe not even the bottom of the first inning it's so early. so i think as long as it's not terrible and core search is okay and ad budgets look good, stocks should be okay from here. >> brent, do you find that we're getting to a valuation time period with these names, or are we still just focused on ai?
5:12 pm
because google could be considered cheap, nvidia could be expensive but are we not there yet is it still ai-centric >> we're not you look at nvidia and microsoft trading at 30 times earnings, these are not dot com, internet, cloud -- palantir is trading at 30 times revenue, nvidia and microsoft are trading at 30 times earnings so i don't believe we've hit this bubble. second, there's no mass, rip-roaring ipo market we're not seeing that. we're not seeing huge multiples. my entire industry, which is mainly software, the multiples have only compressed, and gone into energy, gone into financials we've seen actually at our desk more money moving out of tech into other sectors, given the rip we've had in semis so i don't think we are in a bubble from what we can tell across multiple fronts we don't see it yet. the question -- and you guys
5:13 pm
raised it earlier, capex every investor we meet with globally are like, when are all these dollars -- how do i know we're getting a return we're seeing a backlog and seeing it in the adoption of some new products. it's early but every board and every ceo in america is talking about how they can embrace ai. i don't care if you sell farming equipment or you're the most technologically advanced health care company every single ceo and i've never seen boards in 25 years of history doing this, they are absolutely freaked. they weren't freaked about crypto, about the internet, about other technology shifts. they are freaked about this and they're getting in front of it >> brian, great to have you with us thank you. >> thank you how has the positioning been like into this very big week of earnings >> bullish, pretty much in all of them, actually. first of all, look, nvidia
5:14 pm
traded, what, 4.7 million contracts, including index and etf options today. calls are outpacing puts in all of these names, and by a considerable amount. we're talking about probably two times as many upside bets being made i think it's more just a skittishness about the fact that the stocks have come so far. nvidia being the most notable example. because i guess what multiple we assign to this depends a little bit on what you think they're going to do. i'm looking at maybe four bucks a share for a full year 2025 so that gets us to 35 times next calendar year. that doesn't seem overly expensive. that's more than 40% year-on-year growth. that's growth at a reasonable price. >> meantime, let's move to apple, reportedly testing a blood glucose management app to expand health offerings. some pre diabetic employees are
5:15 pm
testing it dexcom ended off lows. it shows level change according to food intake traditionally blood glou koglucs is measured with a pinprick. >> it's good they don't do this on "fast money" because we're handed gummy bears i just think it's a case with apple, this isn't something that's moving the needle this is something that is part of that story. it is part of a place where at some point apple does become indispensable and is part of that device that i think is helping the services revenue it's not changing ai or the dynamics around the refresh cycle. >> well, it just makes that device that much more desirable, that much stickier, and that's what it's all about, the ecosystem. you're not going to go to some
5:16 pm
other device you've got it all on your watch and that's good enough for me to want to upgrade my watch. >> again, i'm agreeing with tim. i don't really think it moves the needle but i do think it's supportive for apple from the point of view that it does speak to the install base and you have a sticky or attractive feature there. i don't know when the expected rollout of this will be and whether it be disruptive in terms of the health care space i think it speaks to their install base, which is the bull case for apple. >> do you remember when they first came out with the new watch, they wanted to have the pulse ox, but they couldn't do it because it was infringing that's a much better use case because everyone would enjoy or like the benefit of a pulse ox there's not as big tam on this use case as it was on that so i think they're just trying to have something, not the best thing. >> well, if you think about the
5:17 pm
tam for weight loss drugs, there's some overlap there because there's a lot of pre diabetic people out there. there are a lot of diabetic people out there hence, the huge market for weight loss drugs. if you think about it like that, the tam is not that small. >> 11% of the population has, i would think around 11% is diabetic or some progress through the phases of diabetes with a pulse ox, once again, it's 100% of people that wear the watch would use that. >> and they probably already own e either an apple phone or watch i'm not sure it really moves the needle. coming up, a face off, big gains, and hoka suggests nike's problems are bigger than we thought. latest on elon musk's secret meetings with vladimir putin what it means for national security and musk's companies. this is "fast money," with
5:18 pm
melissa lee, right here on cnbc. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities. tamra, izzy and emma... they respond to emails with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team.
5:19 pm
let our expertise round out yours. pete g. writes, "my tween wants a new phone. andhow do i notan that'sbreak the bank?"team. we gotcha, pete. xfinity mobile was designed to save you money and gives you access to wifi speeds up to a gig. so you get high speeds for low prices.
5:20 pm
better than getting low speeds for high prices. right, bruce? -jealous? yeah, look at that. -honestly. someone get a helmet on this guy. xfinity internet customers, ask how to get an unlimited line free for a year. plus, a free samsung galaxy s24 fe. welcome back to "fast money. a new wall street journal report
5:21 pm
talking about contact between elon musk and russian president vladimir putin, raising concerns over national security eamon javers has more on this. >> hey, there, melissa what we know is that nasa had bill nelson saying today the possibility of conversations between elon musk and vladimir putin should be investigated, speaking at a conference organized by the publication he said if the story were true, that would be concerning no comment from elon musk, but the kremlin is denying the "wall street journal" report from this morning, calling the story fake. the "wall street journal" citing several current and former u.s. and european and russian officials in its reporting, cnbc has not been able to independently verify the details here but the journal's reporting is that musk has been in regular contact with vladimir putin since late 2022. they reportedly discussed personal topics, business and
5:22 pm
geopolitical tensions and the journal says putin asked musk not to activate starlink over taiwan as a favor to chinese leader xi jing pin i've been talking to intelligence sources and there's a couple of points to know one is, and maybe most importantly, it's just unclear at this hour if musk disclosed these putin contacts to the u.s. government that would be required of him as a holder of a top secret security clearance we'll have to do more reporting to find out. it is at least possible, also, that u.s. intelligence knows more about the contents of these conversations between musk and putin, if the nsa is technically able to obtain putin's communications, it would be allowed to record conversations hes that with elon musk even though elon musk is a u.s. person, as long as the intended target of the surveillance is vladimir putin himself that's called incidental collection they would be able to make use of that. presumably, melissa, elon musk knows that if he's talking with
5:23 pm
vladimir putin, whether it's encrypted text messages, over the phone, what have you, elon musk has been around long enough to know that that kind of communication would be a target for u.s. intelligence. >> thank you eamon javers in washington on this story at what point does this catch up to tesla, to the valuation of spacex, to all of this what do you think? >> well, first of all, we would have to make an assumption that u.s. security was somehow unaware of it. for all we know, if this was true, if it is true, it is entirely possible that they essentially were listening in, if you will. so i think it's very sfpeculatie stages what we've seen from tesla and going into additional results from other automakers, i kind of feel like it's probably not a bad idea to lighten up on tesla here and maybe pick up a little bit of gm or ford -- i mean,
5:24 pm
take a look at gm, for example, that thing is trading at $150, the valuation on the ebitda basis on ford is probably a similar number i think gm better because they have better autonomous driving technology i think you could probably justify lightening your position on valuation alone. >> tesla or gm >> for trade or long-term hold >> for a trade and then long-term hold. >> no escaping. >> so, answer both >> i would say gm. listen, i wasn't expecting this massive run-up in tesla going into earnings. you can kind of drill down and ask yourself, is this an ongoing margin expansion, which is what they reported, or a one-time thing related to batteries i'm in the latter camp, i would say gm for the short term. i think the concern around tesla, at least for me and a few others, was that ultimately it was going to lead to an erosion of margins and searessentially a
5:25 pm
with u.s. manufacturers and chinese manufacturers. it seems like everyone has rolled back their commitment to evs. i think over the long term, particularly if you're able to get a pullback and find a re-entry point, i think tesla because it has the potential for growth and innovation and the competition has seemingly fallen by the wayside. >> when it's election season, we talk about baskets of stocks that are republican or democratic where does tesla fall? and i sort of ask that because he's aligned himself with donald trump at this point. so, has it benefitted from that run-up in the trump basket that we've seen >> well, it's fascinating, because you would think historically it would sit in a basket that had a blue ribbon on it based on at least what they do, the people they appeal to. but it's a fun game to play and we play a lot of fun games here and we have a lot of fun i just think in terms of
5:26 pm
thinking about tesla this week, obviously, even the rally in tesla that we've seen over the last month or so, it's been driven by a dynamic this is a more profitable car company and sentiment was poor and we got more detail that explained about the cost inputs and it had the analysts saying we think these are sustainable elon musk made $22 billion this week that's right, $22 billion. it's a case where the sentiment around tesla was so poor no one expected these numbers. i would rather own gm. you didn't ask me. >> i think on a technical level, tesla is running into a couple of resistance points it can go higher, but sentiment was so poor. and whenever you bet against tesla, it winds up really spiking the way it has but gm is just crushing tesla and ford on a year-to-date performance. there's a lot more "fast
5:27 pm
money" to come >> a sneaker showdown for the ages, is strength in upstarts like hoka proof that nike's problems are about to get much bigger a closer look at this footwear face off next. plus, another dent in the housing trade. what results from mohawk industries and stubbornly high mortgage rates mean for the sector you're watching "fast money," live from the nasd mkeit tes square. we're back right after this.
5:28 pm
♪♪ [inner monologue] this is going to sound crazy. but i know these attack vectors. oh, had a little upgrade have we? ♪♪ okay, so that's how you want to play. ♪♪
5:29 pm
it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow!
5:30 pm
welcome back to "fast money. some signs of strength in the sneaker sector, shares of deckers outdoor surging nearly 11% today after the company posted record sales in its hoka brand. skechers reporting earnings and the stock ended lower. both have far outperformed long-term heavyweight nike does their strength signal or underscore that nike's position is even worse than we thought, tim? it certainly teams like the momentum is in the smaller brands at this point. >> i think it certainly -- nike's playbook has been buying up all the best athletes and teams to dominate and you're seeing some of those sponsorship
5:31 pm
deals go to other people, too. there's no question and we've covered this from different angles, there are competitive brands that are taking share from the legacy player and nike, just to be clear, is so far the number one global athletic athleisure brand, certainly in terms of footwear i think part of this week was not only to show what deckers is doing and we've heard this from other upstarts, but i think the starbucks announcement sends a message for a new ceo taking over a company that's in turmoil, that's in flux. it's not going to happen quickly. the message we heard from essentially an all-star ceo taking over a company under pressure is this is going to take some time and it does give elliot hill a chance to, i think, also kind of say we need a little bit of time here, even though on some level you can make an argument nike is not as broken as starbucks i think there's cyclicality and major competition. >> hoka revenue gruowth for 202
5:32 pm
is expected to be 24%. just in july it was 20%. they raised in a short amount of time so there's real speed here to how quickly this brand is catching on. >> yeah, i've been a big believer in you have ohn, hoka, oofa y oofos it's a great brand >> i know what a loofah is. >> so when you look at nike, they're down 27% year-to-date. another one, under armour, in the last three months, is up 27%. this one was left for dead it's in single digits. i would not be buying nike i would be buying anything else but that >> i mean, the underarmor armor story, they were coming out with innovative kind of undergarment
5:33 pm
types of compression sleeves and they caught the wave and had steph curry on board but i think you have to look at the stock price. we can speak about percentages we're talking about maybe a dollar or two move on the grand scheme of things the nike situation, i think when it comes to deckers, i definitely think they are taking market share away, particularly as it pertains to their core running business skechers, i think it's more the crux type slide-ins and that growth isn't necessarily at the expense of nike. with that said, i think you look at jaylen brown, the nba finals mvp, opting for another sponsorship and the aging stars. the times of spending $100 or $200 on michael jordans or lebrons, these are aging there's a new influx of talent i still think the fact that hoka can take market share, nike has reinvented themselves. they need to look at the likes
5:34 pm
of pickleball. >> that's skechers' domain. >> you're right, by the way. nike and skechers are two very different places i could be wrong. >> i will say the max cushioning trend that has lifted hokas, that could fade. then what? if people don't want to wear shoes with thick soles coming up, mohawk is getting a haircut. t what the latest warning could mean next. plus, what to expect from a big week of restaurant earnings with chipotle, mcdonald's and more on deck
5:35 pm
smartsheet helps propel mclaren formula 1 cars to the starting line. thousands of individual parts. moving from idea to reality. in every single race, we pursue our peak potential. our people fuel that pursuit.
5:36 pm
our technical and operations teams collaborate in smartsheet to get the car to the track. we don't focus on results. we focus on what leads to results. with smartsheet supporting our operations, the results will come.
5:37 pm
welcome back to "fast money. stocks ending the day mixed, closing out a turbulent week the dow falling for the fifth straight down. the s&p falling just into the red after spending most of the session higher most indices snapping six-week winning streaks. the nasdaq closing up. meanwhile, lyft shares dropping late in today's session after
5:38 pm
the ftc alleged it deceived potential drivers over how much money they could earn. the company saying they agreed to pay over $2 million to settle charges. mohawk industry is dropping nearly 14%, it's worse than in more than four years after giving disappointing guidance, saying consumers are trading down as high prices weigh on spending the sentiment echoing that of sherwin-williams, which earlier pointed to softness in the do-it-yourself market, as mortgage rates have risen sharply, after the fed cut rates. we saw pressure on lowe's as well as home depot do you have question marks over the home trade >> look, consumers are stretched here that's obviously a problem we have seen an uptick in rates of late, and for the trade in general, that will also tend to be a problem you know, home depot has been
5:39 pm
trading more recently at valuations a little better than it had over the longer term. for that reason, i liked it. but it has had a run, i think, within the last couple of months maybe it's time to take a little money off. >> when you look at home depot and lowe's, the storms we had down south kind of sued the data bus t because there's going to be a lot of rebuilding. when you look at mohawk, really tied to rates, to home improvement, and if rates do not come in, they're in a world of hurt so i would not be touching this, i would look at the technicals it had a step up a couple of months ago and it started rocketing through the roof then it stepped down, the first step-down was $129 i would wait for it to hold. >> for more, let's bring in the founder of northman trader sven, great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> we're talking about rates and
5:40 pm
obviously we want to talk about markets, too you actually think all of this is part of a major super cycle rally. tell us what's happening. >> it's interesting, we're in, i call it a super rally, we've been in three of these in the last few years the one was in 2017 with tax cuts, and then obviously we had the overall global qe rally in 2021 now, what we're facing here is actually another liquidity rally. this may sound odd given raised rates and monetary tightening, but what's totally overpowing here is fiscal dominance we've never been in an environment such as this where the u.s. government is running 6% to 7% deficits on gdp in a non-recessionary environment fiscal deficits are stimulativ
5:41 pm
and usually happen in recessions so you've got this dual fight going on, the fed trying to slow the economy down, that was certainly the play for the last few years. but the fiscal has so dominated everything that actually financial conditions have eased for two years straight, and that has helped completely lift up asset prices to what we've seen. and based on the liquidity equation, and now with the fed and other central banks cutting rates, you can basically make the case, well, we've got to stay bullish, as long as the liquidity keeps driving everything but these liquidity rallies have end points we saw that in 2020 and we -- excuse me, in 2018, we had some hiccups there as well. and i'm having -- we've been on this liquidity train all year and basically markets have been up 11 months over the last 1
5:42 pm
it's a one-way trade with hardly any corrective activity in between. now as we're heading into the election, i'm getting concerned about a few items. >> i know at least there are some folks saying there's going to be liquidity in mid november, possibly, and there's a couple of charts that point to that the other side of the fiscal madness -- i agree with you, is obviously defincit madness and what it means in terms of higher rates and structural dynamic for our government, which is not equity friendly. any thoughts on that because i think people value your view as a trader and big picture. is this a near-term event, is running 6% to 7% gdp something that the equity market should be worried about between here and the end of the first quarter, which is what i think most people are thinking about right now? >> that's a very fair question, tim, and the issue is, frankly, nobody knows what i will point out, as strong as this has been, remember, we
5:43 pm
just ran another $1.8 trillion deficit, something really weird happened here at the beginning of october i know a lot of people expect the election seasonality weakness into september and october. it hasn't happened and what we saw on the heels of the rate cut by the fed in september, we saw yields spike up dramatically and we saw the dollar spike up dramatically these were correlated with equities the last few years. all of a sudden, the correlation is being completely ignored. and what happened? just now, totally bizarrely, the debt increase that we just saw from september 26th to today was a half a trillion dollars. that's $6 trillion annualized. and as i said before, debt raises, fiscal deficits, what are they doing and does that explain the complete lack of correlation with asset prices? and my concern is, since half a
5:44 pm
trillion debt increase in four weeks does not seem sustainable at all, does that create imbalances in the market that is setting up for some kind of corrective activity. look, everybody is on a train for a year-end rally, myself as well but i am concerned about these disconnects that we just saw, and heading into a very contentious election -- i'm not going to predict the outcome of the election i'm just going topredict two things here. one is a lot of people, no matter who wins, will be disappointed, and number two, at the outcome of this, you're still looking at both candidates, actually, promising more deficit spending in their campaign promises. >> sven, great to see you. thank you. >> thanks, melissa. coming up, it's not just big tech we're setting the table for restaurant earnings. with mcdonald's and starbucks this week, will some new names
5:45 pm
take the lead? and shares of capri slashed in half after a judge blocked the meerrg how they're handling the pursestrings when "fast money" returns.
5:46 pm
what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.
5:47 pm
5:48 pm
welcome back to "fast money. it's not big tech on the earnings calendar next week. names like mcdonald's and starbucks on the docket. how will this week's headlines impact results and how will it stack up cnbc's kate rogers has the details. >> two of the biggest names reporting next week have been in the news for different reasons this week. mcdonald's and starbucks but when it comes to earnings, they and others will be subject to the value equation with consumers. mcdonald's currently facing an e. coli outbreak in 13 states tied to slivered onions used in quarter pounders, had already signalled the back half of the year could be a challenge given consumer discernment around value. it extended its $5 value through the end of the year and it remains to be seen if the outbreak will lead to an image issue. starbucks pulling 2025 guidance and giving preliminary numbers but the company is undergoing a revamp with its new ceo, steering away from previously offered discounts and focusing on the premium experience it's
5:49 pm
long been known for. the question is, will consumers pay up it's a tall order for brian nickel and value has been less of a factor for some of the sector's best performers over the year. chipotle has seen consumers willing to pay premium for burritos and bowls cava and sweet green, two of the pricier names, are also the two top stock performers, up over 200% year to date. >> thank you. we are just getting word that mcdonald's will stop sourcing onions are taylor farms colorado springs facility indefinitely they had distributed onions to 900 mcdonald's locations, and the onions the suspected source of this e. coli outbreak how do you feel about mcdonald's, just not eating it how do you feel about the stock? as kate had mentioned, there were already precious in terms of consumers saying we don't have the money to spend on mcdonald's on fast food. >> it's tough because their
5:50 pm
value proposition is that they are a value proposition. when you kind of juxtapose that to your cavas or chipotles, you're essentially talking about people will pay for premium, versus mcdonald's where you can go to a wendy's or burger king or a sonic and they're all more or less engaged in the same type of -- >> do you go to sonic? >> come on, i don't go to any of them >> i didn't know there was a sonic around >> the slushy. >> i i would go to sonic. >> would you go to a sonic over mcdonald's >> yes, just for the newness factor. >> you hit the nail on the head. >> and they don't have the quarter pounder at sonic. >> even here in the northeast, there are no reported cases of e. coli here those onions didn't come to the east coast yet people -- >> i think when you get these type of things, we saw this with chipotle years ago, where the stock really takes a beating,
5:51 pm
but when you talk about a national brand like mcdonald's, i don't say rush in and buy the name off of this, but eventually we're going to clear these headwinds and it's going to be an investable stock again. you have to see through these events. >> >> do you see through now, mike are options traders seeing through now to some other point in the future? >> look, chipotle obviously had some even bigger problems themselves and managed to overcome them and went to valuations and levels that had before been unseen so it is certainly possible, and very likely that they will come out the long sigh. i think glp 1s might be another potential headwind as it changes customers' appetites. >> coming up, explosive options action in capri after the luxury retailer's proposed merger with tapestry was struck down next, more "fast money" in two whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work.
5:52 pm
we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing... nope. ai, done, built. let's get to work. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy. (grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. create a beautiful website in minutes (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.
5:53 pm
[children playing] hey guys, come on! time to eat. time to eat. i don't want this. i want corndogs! ♪♪ corndogs! corndogs! corndogs! ♪♪ i need another corndog!
5:54 pm
it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people. ware welcome back to "fast money. capri shares cut nearly in half after the ftc struck down the merger with tapestry the stock is down and options are way up >> it traded more than 12 times its average daily volume, not common to see a company this
5:55 pm
small among the most active single stocks. put volume did exceed. the most active opening contract, though, was actually call buyers that were going out and buying the 25 straight calls that expire in january, 13,500 traded for $1.60 or so on average. some people are seeing some potential light at the end of the tunnel, maybe a rebound. >> where would you stand on this, if at all? >> i think tapestry. it's interesting, because obviously -- >> a sigh of relief for tapestry >> it was holding back the stock and it was something that took off and had a big move today i still think there was some sense this was a deal that wasn't great for them, either. that would be my call. >> it was thought that perhaps even if the deal were to go through that they would renegotiate, because the conditions -- the conditions have changed materially. >> get the ball and chain removed. >> exactly >> i can understand the options action that mike reported on
5:56 pm
essentially the deal got blown up and the puts he was reporting on so kind of taking a fly run. and i think when these deals come under pressure, you tend to kind of run for the exit >> up next, final trades
5:57 pm
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
time for the final trade mike >> we didn't mention another athletic apparel maker with higher growth and a lower multiple, and that's lulu. >> tim >> paypal, it's been a nice run. i think the gross profit margin continues and i think the story improves. >> i had forgotten about the p >> people do. >> if you're looking for value within the mag seven cohort, i
6:00 pm
think you look at alphabet for all the reasons we mentioned earlier. >> texas roadhouse, i'm staying in the food group. a friend of mine told me you can get a great steak there. tnkfor watching my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to hope you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to "cramerica." my friends, i'm just trying to make a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me, @jimcramer.

3 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on