tv Mad Money CNBC October 25, 2024 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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think you look at alphabet for all the reasons we mentioned earlier. >> texas roadhouse, i'm staying in the food group. a friend of mine told me you can get a great steak there. tnkfor watching my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to hope you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to "cramerica." my friends, i'm just trying to make a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me, @jimcramer.
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make or break. that's how i always feel about the week coming up. we hear from alphabet, meta, microsoft, and amazon. they all report at the same time because they are trying to give me a heart attack. only nvidia is missing. thank you, jenson. we had the nonfarm payroll report on friday. we want a week i remember so the fed can keep cutting rates. today's action feels meaningless. the dow lost and the s&p dipped but the nasdaq gained .56%. it is just aging for what is going to be a huge week that you much wass -- must watch. monday begins with forage. i want to see them have a clean quarter with no warranty issues and not too much loss on electric vehicles though that may be too much to ask for. on tuesday we will hear from mcdonald's. there will probably be a full
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airing of the e. coli situation which has taken a turn for the worse. the cdc says the outbreak has grown. there are 26 new cases. it's too soon to tell how much damage will be done. remember, mcdonald's has been on fire since they announced the five dollars meal deal. wall street can't stay away from the stock. we will know whether there's going to be a moth to the flame situation or if it will be solid for the rest of the year. the stocks that have been the most solid and reliable, royal caribbean's number one. i think that both reddit and paypal will do fantastically. after the close the playoff attitude trouts the reports. it is tense. you need to be ready for the ecstasy of a clean beat or it
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might be the agony of the forecast cut. we are starting to see a few of those. first from alphabet. stock has been all over the map but rarely in a good way. we have trimmed our position on google because it is hard to trust. i think it is a great company but it's not a great stock. they seem indifferent to the things investors and analysts want to hear. they have lost a ton of money and they don't have enough cars on the road. that has to change in order for them to show they are not niche which is how elon musk described them in the tesla conference call. do you want some controversy? just say that you like amd as we do in the travel trust. amd will not catch nvidia but it will do enough to take chunks of the business. plus it has tremendous pc exposure right during a big
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refresh cycle. we are buying amd because it is a long-term terrific story. chipotle reports. i think they will be fine. i don't know if it can break down from the 50s. it feels trapped but the announcement of a permanent ceo could work some wonders. then eli lilly. one of our best picks. this morning a note was put out talking about the impact of these drugs on the food stocks. all of the analysts and people in the food industry, they say it is going to impact the food companies negatively. when we walked around the floating platform in the gulf of mexico i picked up on every machine i saw. the predominant one was caterpillar which makes solar turbines that we call turbines that would power a great deal of activity. the chevron ceo reminded me that
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it came from that.'s reports could be very strong. i just don't know if it will be strong enough to move what has been an incredibly hot stock. i would not be surprised if they give up some of that. it's up 30% of the year. then we have meta and microsoft. they had a stellar quarter. i think they could do it again. for microsoft, lets talk about how copilot may not be as strong as we thought. somehow they have to put that story to rest. here is one that makes a big splash every time. it's called booking holdings. it has been ages since they did not have a smashing quarter. that everybody speculates. at the same time jordache report -- doordash reports.
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the time-honored dog bites man stuff. thursday could top wednesday because that's when apple and amazon report. we've heard negative chatter about the iphone 16 launch. i think people will rush to sell. i say, hold on. we've seen this movie before. apple has had suboptimal lunches before. the best strategy has been to hold it, don't trade it. i want you to gird yourself for a week number. when you get a week number the stock goes down then you have to buy. amazon is hard. the stock was hammered mercilessly because they got linked with echoes of a weak consumer. i don't buy it. i think they are doing very well. a few weeks later the stock was right back to where it was trading before it reported the quarter and then it went higher still. if you don't own any, i don't want you to buy it ahead. by it after.
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we have two drug stocks. merck and bristol-myers. i think both stocks are too low but i also know if we have a weak employment number they will be two that you should not have bought. speaking of employment. on the first friday of the month we get the nonfarm payroll report. we have an upcoming fed meeting and we see cyclicals really miss their numbers because of higher interest rates. if employment stays this big we also expect that the 10 year yield will be at 4.5 by then. notice the theme here. i am trying to steal you because i know there are people that want you to sell. this is a fed rate cut cycle they want you to buy.
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i was impressed by the way. it's the worst performer of the group i think the stock would be quite a bit higher. exxon does not have the earnings power i think people will switch their allegiance to chevron. almost half the time since the earnings season began wait for the numbers. listen to the conference call before you pull the trigger. if you don't want to do the homework yourself guess what? the cnbc investing club is happy to do the heavy lifting for you. >> jimbo, this is bill giving you a gigantic booyah, my friend.
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>> that is a serious booyah . one of the more serious this week. how can i help you? >> jim, i got some home depot. i'm a little bit concerned. is the fed rate going to go down? it seems to be very volatile right now. also, i would like to know will tariffs affect equipment at home depot? >> what is interesting at home depot a sense the fed rate cut cycle this has been trading with the 10 year. that's how it went from 420 to 390. it's been conditioned to be able to buy for the next move. i'm not worried about the problem that you mention. i do feel it is the right stock to buy in a fed rate cut cycle. big leaks are coming up. please remember to slow down and process the numbers. or, just join the investing club.
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ups might be turning things around. that be great if the company kept delivering on results? then deckers outdoor was the second best in the s&p today. i will tell you how the company has been putting its best foot forward. so why are investors sending the stock out to pasture? i'm hearing from the ceo of tractor supply. stay with cramer. don't miss a second of mad money. follow @jimcramer on x. have a question, tweet cramer. send jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc . miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com .
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a couple weeks ago i told you i was a little worried about united parcel service. they got into the habit of missing expectations after week quarters. i was as surprised as anyone when they had a better than expected quarter that sent the stock up 5%. i made a note to dig into that quarter and figure out how the heck ups turned things around and more important, could the term be sustainable. ups posted higher than expected revenue. the first positive in 8/4. the strength was broad-based. domestic up 5%. international up 3.4% and supply chain solutions up 8%.
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the big issue has been the inability to get costs under control. they had a contrary -- contract with the teamsters union but they had excellent margins which allowed $1.76 per share. that is big. earnings were up 12% year-over year. pretty darn good. ups did cut its full-year revenue forecast from $93 billion down to $91.1 billion. that's what they were looking for. there were a couple of reasons. the ups completed the sale of coyote logistics. they had to take those numbers out of the guidance. second and more important, they raise the full-year operating outlook albeit only slightly to a new goal. profitability is what these guys have been struggling with.
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last night the ceo said the macro environment was slightly worse than expected. that may explain that ups overcame that leading to the parts of the market and through ongoing productivity which help in the cost front. the company saying with u.s. domestic business they noted the volumes that are flowing back into the network. they want the best paying businesses they can get their hands on. ups is willing to charge a higher price. as a result, revenue per piece grew sequentially and they expect the trend to continue. back when it was limited for several quarters they were in a beggars can't be chooser
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situation. they could not afford to turn down less profitable and they could not afford higher prices. now something that happened in the second quarter and picked up in the third quarter, for the international business and service improvements with expanded residential delivery, the eight largest markets in europe plus faster delivery for asia, africa and the middle east. the revenue per piece was up 2.5%. the united parcel supply chain had a noisy quarter. the sale of coyote logistics also wasn't. that put downward pressure on the numbers. the air cargo began this quarter which helped revenue but also hurt profitability. as ups reconfigures the air network. putting all that aside, the supply-chain solution business
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saw healthy growth in air and ocean forwarding thanks to the brief port strike. looking forward, we did not get much out of management especially when it comes to the outlook. even as the analyst try very hard to needle something out of them. when the analysts ask some version of how is 2025, just by us get through the fourth quarter then we will give you the outlook. when it comes to the crucial holiday season, they sounded confident that ups is well prepared. because there are only 17 shipping days between black friday and christmas eve she thinks they have what it takes to move volume in a short amount of time. this was a legitimate strong quarter for the full-year forecast and the lack of any detail on 2025 and beyond, at
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the end of the day i think there's a simpler situation. right now ups is all about trust. they have missed a number so many times wall street simply does not believe the management. they introduced the long-term financial targets for 2026. those look great but the stock is held off for response because they don't believe they are achievable. then they reported a stinker of a quarter but they expect business to turn around in the second half. nobody was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. ups has become a show me stock and yesterday they finally showed us. approved that management was right when they predicted a turnaround in the second half. for me that is the biggest take away. of course, they still have a lot to prove. they need to show as they can deliver a strong holiday quarter without costs getting out of control as often happens this time of year for then. hopefully they won't let us down afterwards with the week 2025 -- weak 2025 forecast.
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if they can keep doing what they say they will do wall street will fall in love again with the stock because the 2026 targets are incredibly bullish. they just need to keep giving us more reasons to believe they can make the numbers. after yesterday i think this one is worth betting on. mad money is back after the break. coming up, is the post earnings pop in deckers outdoor enough to keep this footwear company running higher? cramer is digging into the details next.
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even though the footwear and apparel space has been a challenge for a while now, i told you to get deckers outdoor. it's a terrific brand. they have one of the best stories and footwear. i have recommended them at every turn largely because hoka has been taking space in the speaker space from nike. they climbed $16 or more than 10%. it's a phenomenal quarter. the only thing that shocks me is the fact that anyone was actually surprised by these great numbers. let me give you some context.
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deckers has beaten earnings expectations for 12 consecutive quarters. calling it needs is an understatement. they have destroyed the earnings estimates. in the last four quarters leading up to the one we got last night, that is amazing. deckers has beaten expectations by an average of 45 %. they just keep crushing it. hardly any analysts seem to adjust. that's why the stock has been able to rally 153% including a 51% gain year today. if you zoom in you can see the entirety of this year's gains came during the first five months of 2024. over the last nine months, the stock has been under a lot of pressure at least until today. not doing all that big. you can see it has been a little erratic. at first you could chalk the pull back up to simple profit-
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taking. shares climbed over 14% in a single day in may after a blowout quarter. there were building concerns about the health of the consumer. a lot of shareholders decided let's just ring the register. in late july they had another terrific quarter but shortly after that they imploded and the stock market got slammed. over the course of august and september it did manage to climb higher from around 142 the low 160s earlier this month. earlier this week we saw something really strange. on tuesday, just two days before the quarter, a broker downgraded deckers because in the analyst words, quote, signs of moderating growth but multiple at risk. to be fair to the analyst this
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was hardly devastating. they were basically making in valuation, but it sent the stock down 5.7% over the course of tuesday and wednesday. it spooked me a bit. the analyst talked about less bows for uggs and share loss for hoka. it was argued that they were vulnerable. from that perspective it just wasn't as good as it used to be. i thought they might actually know something i don't and short-sellers also did but when they reported they shot the lights out again. a magnificent beat and raise quarter. they put up sizable revenue, 20.1% growth. they were worried about moderating growth but that number is down from 22.1. deckers only grew at an 18.2% clip in the fiscal year.
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the analysts were looking for 10.3% growth. they got this one dead wrong. all of the namebrand segments beat expectations with only the catchall other brands, they were worried about uggs and hoka but hoka as up an astounding 34.7%. forget moderating growth. the brand is accelerating. they make some of the hottest shoes out there. of course, sales were on fire and david faber wore them today which is apropos of absolutely nothing. the gross margin came in within improvement off of 53.4. far better than the 52% wall street was looking for. we got yet another huge earnings beat.
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deckers earned $1.59 per share up 39.5% year-over-year. the analysts were looking for $1.24. i don't know many that have had that kind of number. they also raise the forecast for the 2025 fiscal year. they are talking about 12% revenue growth up from the 10% they predicted previously. they also boosted margin guidance. when you account for the recent 6 for 1. i wish they had done a 5 for 1 which is easier on your mind but before they did that they took up the earnings-per- share forecast substantially. even some of these new hire targets are still a little bit below the wall street consensus estimates but nobody cares because they have an incredible track record of practicing under promise and over deliver. i am just amazed that o many people thought this quarter would be bad even though
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deckers keeps knocking it out of the park. the conference call was led for the first time by the new ceo. he is an industry veteran who held senior roles at puma and nike before taking the deckers job. he told an excellent story of a business that is firing on all cylinders. hoka is still seeing price demand which is a big part of why it can keep putting up accelerating growth and why the company has such great gross margins. u.s. business was steady with balance growth across direct to consumer and wholesale. the international businesses on fire with strength in europe and asia and international direct to consumer sales are growing faster than international wholesale. deckers makes more money when they can sell direct. people may not want to order nike's online.
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i told you when it's $200 they don't want to do that but it does not seem to be a problem for hoka. he also sounded happy with uggs performance saying i could not be more pleased with the year to date results. they use to primarily be a winter brand but they have made so much progress it is now a strong year-round brand. in the end, another rock solid quarter from deckers, one of my favorite companies in the entire consumers in base -- space dating back to 2012. i hope you did not get scared by that profit-taking downgrade. bottom line, from where i sit it is as fresh as ever. after today's run i think they can keep charging to the july all-time high up another 10%. after that, who knows. i can tell you this. i will only stop being bullish when the company gives me a reason to stop being bullish. so far that has not happened.
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chuck in north carolina. >> yes. thank you for taking my call. >> thank you for calling in. how can i help you >> i called in june and spoke with you. your opinion was to hold chipotle and wait for the price to run up. this is a small position. what is your position on getting additional shares or would you hold on? >> i was doing some work because they report next week. i see no reason why the momentum can't continue. hold on through the quarter. don't worry about it. don't traded on the number that comes out this week. bob in california. >> jim, how are you doing today. >> i'm doing well. we had such a good time with the staff. we are all fired up.
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how can i help you? >> great show yesterday. >> thank you very much. >> i'm alling about a company i've held for the last 16 years, pkg. packaging corporation of america. >> you pelted that long. >> it's been very good to me. >> you have the best in the industry. what is amazing when this one came out i did not think it was going to be all that special. that was wrong. it's terrific. you have a winter and thank you for saying those terrific words about what we do. i will only stop being bullish on deckers when they give me a reason to stop being bullish. it was a great quarter. the analysts did not see it coming. so far nothing but net. much more mad money ahead i will sit down with another one i love, tractor supply.
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income. i guess that wasn't enough to please the traders and it fell 6%. i think that is mostly because it came into hot. it was up 36% for the year. could this be the buying opportunity or is something truly wrong here? let's check in with hal lawton the president and ceo of tractor supply. welcome to mad money. >> thank you for having me time -- on today. it looks like you were having a great time yesterday. >> it was a great time. i came back to one of my favorite stories, your company and something that seems to have gone viral which is the skeleton rooster. this must be a great halloween season for tractor supply. >> our customers love to participate in the holiday season like the rest of america. they love to do it in the way that is consistent with life
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out here. 20% of our customers raise chickens. thus the six foot rooster that has been quite the viral sensation this year. >> when we have so much division in the country it is very strange but i think this halloween has become the national holiday for the second half of the year. national meaning that everybody wants to celebrate. >> you know, it's the second most spent on holiday. it is the kickoff to fall in many ways. i totally agree. the customers love to get out. consumers love to get out and enjoy the fall season. it's a great destination for them whether it is for their halloween or harvest the core, daily needs, animal feed, pet food, or whether they are getting ready for the fall season and getting ready for winter. >> you have a great loyalty program. what brings people to the store?
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what is getting people to come into tractor supply? >> our bread and butter is that animal feed and pet food. they are demand driven needs based businesses that drive footsteps into the store every single day. we are the largest player in backed animal feed in the country between a 20 and 25% share if you are talking about a quinn feed, livestock or poultry. the number five player and pet as well. we have a 37 million+ membership program called neighbors club. that is a highly engaged group that shops with us on a weekly and biweekly basis. we just announced yesterday an acquisition that hopefully will close shortly of a company that will be a great integration into the neighbors club program and bring more and more value to the members. >> people need to understand.
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you have been associated with animal health for a long time. i think it's a better deal. i think you guys offer a competitive price. >> this will be a very good tucking acquisition. it's a best in class technology platform with a great management team and they make money. we will be able to combine that with our 37 million+ neighbors club progra . 88% of our customers have either a pet or an animal. it's a great combination. we are looking forward to bringing affordable pet and animal healthcare to our customers. >> during the pandemic you had a lot of people work from home and a lot of people realize how great it is to have some land and do something with it. i know a lot of people who decided to take in chickens.
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they have to build something to keep the fox away. are they coming back and abandoning the farm or is that here to stay? >> it is here to stay. we have been a really big participate or benefactor of the mobility out to roll america. it's really where the affordable homes, with interest- rate seeming to be higher for longer it's inevitable that rural america will be the location of choice for millennial's. they want to live that life out here. we are one of the few retailers whose transactions are well above pre-covid levels and one of the few retailers that has had positive comps every year since covid. i think that speeds to the fact that we drove a lot of traffic and engagement. we've been able to maintain that over the last five years. >> that is a remarkable figure. we fall accepted, we just hope they are not down 10 or 12. how can you explain to people, this is something that i
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realized. i always love my local feed and grain, but there's a lot of people who want price. if you have not been in before there's a completely different price at tractor supply than the typical feet and grain. >> we have one of the most sophisticated supply chains in all of retail. it's purposeful, built for our business. we moved 8.6 billion pounds of food and feed last year through the spline chain -- supply chain. that gives us a cost advantage we can pass along to customers and make life more affordable for them. we are proud of the prices we were able to maintain on feed and pet food but also things like fertilizer and grass seed or in the wintertime, wood pellets and propane. we are there for our customers on the demand driven needs based products and nobody finds a better price than we do. >> this week will you switch to thanksgiving the court.
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people like to do their houses for thanksgiving. >> it will be a fast and furious holiday season. there's probably more unknowns and a wider range of outcomes this holiday than i have seen in my 25 years in retail. on the positive side you have an all-time high stock market. you have a wealth effect down to a strong economy but on the flipside you have the federal election which creates anxiety and postponement of spin for customers. this holiday season is five shorter days than last year. the shortest holiday selling season you can have between thanksgiving and christmas. it will be a fun one, fast and furious. >> we had of a lot, pet food but you mentioned something i keep hearing about. i want to go back to chickens. what is it about chickens people have discovered. i tried them, the fox guarding
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the hen house and one fox river everybody's neck. what is it about chickens that people are believing and what you need to get so the animals don't get to the chickens. >> you think of chickens at some of the third that for our customers. it really has to do with that backyard enthusiast. they are building a garden, perhaps raised bed, doing an area with the coop. they have room for the dogs to run and play and they have a grill. it's all about the backyard enthusiast. that's really when the millennial customers move out, that's what they want to create. they name the chickens. they become part of the family. at your point, we help our customers live, raise, and care for those chickens whether it is protection with fencing or heaters in the winter and feed and watering and all those things you need to do.
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>> necessities. last question. the kinds of things we are talking about are not really seasonable. can they overcome a short holiday season. in other words, destination tractor supply regardless this season? >> the holiday is important for us and we certainly participate in gifting, and apparel or the toolsets, a variety of other ways. the thing that matters the most is supporting our customers day in and day out with the needs that they have. during the winter that is wood pellets. we are the largest seller of wood pellets in the country. propane, our customers rely on both of those for secondary heating. all of the things you need. long sweaters and et cetera. that's for the core the business is. all of those jackets and hoodies and such. that's where the bulk of the businesses during the holiday season. we look forward to some cold
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weather. >> that is a necessity. when you have a log splitter you don't have to get firewood. if you have carhart, you don't have to get it again because it lasts forever. . fantastic. great to see you. mad money is back after the break. coming up, lightning doesn't just strike twice. it strikes every day. cramer is back in a flash with your questions, next.
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lightning round is sponsored by charles schwab, trade brilliantly. it is time for the lightning round. you tell me the stock, i tell you buy, buy, buy , sell, sell, sell. i play this sound and the lightning round is over. let's start with tom in minnesota. >> good afternoon. i have a quick question on gsm. we got a cd peace corps of b. they show a 52 week high of 212. they are sitting at 203. should i buy some of these? >> the reason that the price is so high is because they blow away the numbers. i think they are best in the
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business. let's go to jim in florida. uggs you . -- booyah to you. >> my stock is nep. >> when you get that stock that is trouble. let's go to michael in texas. >> this is michael from texas. my stock is evgo. >> that stock is on fire. i think it is a spec, losing money and it is too high. let's go to angel in florida. >> i am calling about qualcomm. with all the latest news is it still a buy. >> i can tell you they are overreaching talking about intel. i also think they are on the
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wrong side of the lawsuit. i'm not a fan. that is the conclusion of the lightning round. the lightning round is sponsored by charles schwab. coming up, is a troubled merger in the handbag get -- market the place where that ftc and cramer have something in common? he shares his side of the argument next.
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the ftc thinks it's no -- it knows better which is why they are suing amazon. even though they've done more to fight inflation at a time when americans are feeling the pinch, but, sometimes the ftc is right. not long ago they stood to block the merger of two women's handbag companies. that's how the deal goes through and makes you money. they figure, who would walk this deal. the answer, the ftc. initially i thought it was another foolish effort by the bureau of overreached. as i became more familiar with the story i saw that the merger could raise prices for a particular category. it's called the accessible/affordable luxury segment. yesterday a federal court ruled in favor of the ftc and that's
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a death sentence for the deal. when i read the analysis showed that this could raise the price of handbags since they are pretty clear competitors in many stores. the former ceo of macy's testified in favor of the deal arguing that prices would not increase. the court thought otherwise. so why with the ftc waste their time on something as inconsequential as handbags? what is the problem. there's so many different kinds. if you judge it by the category, accessible and affordable this is the top two dogs getting together which gives them tremendous pricing power. i think we want affordable luxury to beef affordable. if something makes it less affordable than they are right to block it. why do i agree with the findings? if tapestry takes out the competition they can raise
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prices that will. i don't know what will happen now. judging by today's collapse, the stock is down 49%. tapestry up 13%. >> it is also saying that shareholders are rejoicing that they can get out of the deal. the other shareholders are concerned about the businesses itself. it has become a real pariah. you might ask, why bother caring about handbags at all? can't you just do without them? judge dealt with that directly saying downplaying the importance of handbags as a nonessential discretionary item that consumers can choose not to buy if the price is too high ignores that they are important to many women not just to express themselves but you aid in their daily lives by supporting career aspirations or inspiring confidence to holding important personal items such as medication or
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personable -- personal hygiene to carrying snacks and toys for a young child. i don't have to think about the stuff because we have pockets but most women's clothing don't so who am i to disagree. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it. mad money, i'm jim cramer. see you monday. ed dalia dippolo takes her husband's money... dalia was the puppeteer. she manipulated everybody. she called the shots. she did what she wanted. narrator: ... then she plots to take his life. dippolito: she was talking about having me killed like ordering, you know, a bologna sandwich. didn't mean anything to her, you know. and that's the creepy part of it. narrator: it's a real-life made-for-tv tale... [ crying ] ...with a femme fatale you won't soon forget.
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