onions. it's monday, october 28th, 2024 and "squawk box" starts right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. here we go. we got some big openings here. pre-openings, i should say. dow futures are up 200 points before the market opens this morning. this comes after the dow was down for the fifth session in a row on friday or the sixth session in a row. six weeks in a row we've broken winning streaks. nasdaq was up at a record high

intr intraday. continue to take a look at this. where'd that go? the dow is down .50%. the nasdaq is up 1.8%. treasury market on friday, the two-year at the highest level since august since before the fed started lowering rates. the two-year at 4.11. crude prices are falling over the weekend. take a look at where things stand right now. wti crude down $67.11 after israel struck iran military targets. it was a response to the iran missile barrage. tehran has not vowed to respond. the oil industry was working normally. that created a bit of a sigh of relief. meantime, news out from robinhood, the trading platform,

launching derivative contracts on the outcome of elections. this includes the next week's presidential race. the product will begin rolling out to a limited number of users. it starts literally at 8:00 a.m. today. if you are a robinhood customer and you want to bet on the election, you can do that today. customers must be u.s. citizens and apply and be approved for a derivatives account. robinhood is using, i think it is rbkrs. i don't know how to say it. i'm not sure. forecast x for those event contracts. i don't know. now the betting game has begun in a whole different way. once you're on robinhood, it's next level kind of situation. >> in terms of trying to lure you in? >> yeah, and it's a different generation of people who are doing this.

it's a whole different kind of game. >> bikers are bricks as a jumble player? i immediately saw bricks. is it bricks? ibk -- no "c." it's not bikers. neither. >> years of playing the game. >> immediately, i did. and all of the other stuff. boeing is planning to launch a capital raise as early as today according to multiple reports. the company could raise $15 billion. the company says advisors have been lining up potential investors and a transaction is likely to include shares as well as debt. boeing needs the capital infusion to maintain the rating and funding the recovery from the ongoing machinists strike and everything else it has been dealing with the past couple years. japan's ruling coalition lost the parliamentary majority in the snap election yesterday.

the primary shigeru ishiba sa signalled he intends on running the government. he said his party will humbly accept the news of the voters. the yen weakened against the dollar. the nikkei was up 1.8% overnight. new data from china overnight. industrial profits in september dropped since the fastest pace since the pandemic. dropped 21%. the china stats bureau said i insufficient demand weighed down the profitability of industrial firms. that will increase pressure on the government to ramp up fiscal stimulus which is expected to be announced by the meeting of the national people's congress in november. we are watching shares of dutch maker philips. that stock tumbling by 16% after

the company cut its full-year sales outlook because of weak demand from china. the company ceo told "squawk box europe" the company had been able to stabilize, but they still believe it is a matter of when china comes back, not if. the amsterdam listed shares failed to open at the beginning of trading and later opened lower down 16%. and in the meantime, mcdonald's quarter pounders will return to roughly 900 restaurants. that will happen this week after it was pulled from the menu because of a deadly e. coli outbreak. restaurants will serve those burgers without slivered onions. the burger is back on the menu without the onions as authorities continue to investigate. theusualissue appears to be contained to a certain

geography. the fda looking into onions from t taylor farms is the producer. >> i wonder if that means no onions on the quarter pounder. >> that's how i would order it. >> the big mac, can you put the big mac onions on the quarter pounder? slivered ononions? >> raw. >> i guess some -- you can order the entire onion. >> a slice. >> like jay carp. i guess onions. if you like onions, you have to wait. crowdstrike facing a new lawsuit from delta airlines. the airline accusing the vendor, software vendor, of breach of contract after the outage in

july brought down millions of c computers. delta is seeking damages to cover the losses and litigation costs and punitive damages. coming up, the futures pointing to a higher open after the uncharacteristic week last week. we will get you ready for this week's gdp and jobs data and a busy slate of earnings. still have earnings. they last a whole month. we have that going for us which is nice. "squawk box" will be right back.

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joining us now is joanne feeney. good to see you, joanne. economic growth looks good and then fed rates. more to come. then you have a punctuation mark at the end. question mark. you don't know. if it is so strong, there's a reason to wonder whether more are necessary. >> yeah, joe. good morning. that's exactly right. we know and the fed has told us several times that they will be data dependent. this friday's jobs report should tell us more. there is no need for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate. more importantly, they need to make sure they get that inflation

bottle. there has been tremendous progress so far. investors shouldn't count for rates coming back. more born riimportantly, stocks be driven by fundamentals. this is a big week for that. >> to do it just because the fed perceived its current interest rate as restrictive is kind of a -- they don't know for sure whether it is -- whether we are in restrictive. it seems like we are if you use core or pce or whatever you want to use and look where fed funds are. the economy is so strong, though, you just have to ask yourself should we assume the restrictive environment is eventually going to slow things and there's a lag? we haven't seen it and we haven't seen it in the markets. not the stock market, not the bond market, not the gold

market, not anywhere have we seen it. they have plenty of other signals. they are not listening to all of the other things. >> you know, they're restricted in the sense that real rates are high. inflation adjusted interest rates are high on a historical basis. you are right. they are not seeing that much in the broader economy except when you dig down under the surface. look at the industrials. those have been at a slowdown for a while. texas instruments are a good eye into that and they reported the sub categories of industrials. that looks like it is bottoming now. that is a source of improvement and source of improvement for stocks. when you look at the consumer, it is a tale of two types of consumers at the low end and mid range. they're struggling with the consequences of the past year's inflation. they are budgets. >> so, if there is a cutting

cycle, you might buy different parts of the market. how do you know what to do? you could do growth or value depending on where they cut. if you don't know -- do you assume there will be more cuts, therefore, you go from whatever benefits from that? >> i think it is actually probably more helpful for investors to look at the fundamentals of the companies. as you know, joe, we're investors in individual stocks. we don't own the whole market. we're going to look around. we should be careful about comparing this rate cutting cycle to the past. here, we have a different underlining fundamental set of earnings possibilities driven by growth companies. so, we think even if we don't get significant cuts, we're likely to see those growth companies continue to do well and deliver returns. that's why this week's earnings reports are pretty important. we think microsoft, apple, amazon all have very strong

fundamentals. even though some of them are seeing earnings growth slow. we think that is baked into the estimates. if there is a pull back, longer term, these are companies that create more and more value over time. the rate is secondary to the underlining fundamentals of earnings. >> so, it's a dangerous world, obviously. you mentioned cyberattacks are growing. not just the middle east, but ukraine, it's china, it's taiwan. what do you do? just sort of have that in the back of your mind? you leave your phone on at night near your bedside just in case? you don't put it on mute, i guess? >> right, right. clearly cyberattacks are growing and the reason is because the threat surface continues to increase by which i mean there

are more and more ways for hackers to attack and to cause damage. what we do about that is own companies like palo alto ne networks for clients. we think cybersecurity from a company like them is a utility. you can't avoid investing in that kind of technology for your company. another way to do it from the broader portfolio perspective is to recognize that those threats are not just confined to the cyber world. obviously, they're in the physical world. a relate balanced portfolio will see hedges against the risk. owning raytheon or cretos which is involved in the drone business. these are ways to protect clients in moments of volatility. also, we focus for some clients in, say, retirement, income to generate out of the fportfolio. if stock move lower, there are

dividends and you can live off those dividends. abbvie or raytheon. there are places to build that portfolio to help ensure against the inevitable fluctuations in stock prices. >> you don't spend a lot of time thinking about a widening war in the middle east or ukraine or that's not -- i guess, you know you couldn't do anything if you are constantly worried about geo politic s. >> joe, i always worry about geopolitics. there are ways there. the defense companies help and energy companies help to ensure on that side of risk. there's only so much you can do. you can diversify or position income or stocks in defense or energy. then, you mentioned the china and taiwan issue out there. that is a broader concern. you can own more domestic oriented companies to diversify

against that kind of a risk. >> okay. very good. thanks, joanne. joa joanne feeney. when come back, the economic diet on boeing. "squawk box" will be rhtacig bk.

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the strike at boeing rolls on with no date to resume negotiations. government data on friday showed u.s. non-farm payrolls could be reduced by 38,000 jobs because of the strike. the impact on payrolls will be larger than that because of furloughs and layoffs at bo boeing's suppliers. boeing is looking at a sale of the space business according to the wall street journal which would include the starliner space vehicle and supports of the international space station. nasa recently ly opted to have astronauts wait after problems on the starliner's first space flight. coming up, when we come back, apple set to rollout the first version of apple intelligence. we'll tell you what to expect. later, a wrap up of the week headlines from the campaign

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. there's the futures this morning. the triple digit gains in the nasdaq and the dow. take a look at crude prices this morning. you can see now sharply lower down almost 6%. $4.47. okay, we are going to talk about apple this had morning because it is expected to push out the latest features of apple intelligence with a software update later today. steve kovach is joining us now. he has been trying it out and let us know what we can look

forward to or not. >> probably not much. the first wave will launch today, like you said, with an extremely limited set of features and only for the newest iphones and macs and ipads. this is coming as the street is struggling to get a look at the iphone. if you are looking for a smarter siri, you will be disappointed. two things are coming. a.i. summary and new look for siri. siri has been as bad as it always has been. it will glow this time. the chatgpt and generating custom emojis are weeks away f from integrating. that hasn't stopped apple from marketing to iphone 16 buyers. that is all the ads talk about. if you want to summarize your

emails like bela ramsay, you have to wait. meantime, sour commentary so far. last week, the ceos of at&t and verizon saying the demand is not strong and they are not sure how long it will take for the rollout to take for that. and the order cut is 10 million from the survey of analyst ming-chi. and apple software boss told the wall street journal that apple wants to get each piece right and when it is ready. that hasn't stopped tim cook. he told wsj magazine, quote, it's changed my life. guys. >> here's the question. we had a bunch of analysts coming on and others say this is some kind of super cycle. >> because of a.i. >> because of a.i., you will

feel so compelled to run out and get the new phone and there were some other folks who came on and said it will be a super cycle that will be pulled through the entire year as the features roll out, it creates a new sense of excitement. each time a feature rolls out and you get a bump. >> from the television. >> do we think that's the case? >> we will find out starting today. this is the first test. some people have been testing. your son has been testing it a little bit. maybe not super surprised. >> he thinks it's cool. look, i think if you are a kid and you have your friends and you have it and the other guy doesn't have it. >> a fomo factor, for sure. the fomo-inducing features that you can create and send will not happen until december. the real stuff, the thing we have been waiting forever, the real personal assistant where siri understands your apps, that is not coming until next year.

maybe it is elongated and the upgrade goes into the iphone 17. >> we heard from at&t and verizon saying it wasn't -- >> it sounds crummy. gpn is out with a note. you see words like muted demand or moderate demand compared to last year. >> how much is we are holding on to our phones longer. >> that is the story for the iphone for the last five or six years. >> does it matter to get the other stuff that builds into the ecosystem? >> iphone sales have been crummy out of covid. services is picking up a lot of flack. it has been on fire. >> what are we up to? for a while, people kept their phone for two years. now the average is three plus? >> easily. >> four? >> i don't know what the average is, but usually aroundthis

time, one of the other reasons for the super cycle that people are predicting is 2020 was the last big bump because they introduced 5g. >> the phones are much more indestructible. it used to be you drop it in the pool and are you done with it. >> you get updates for six or seven years at least. the a.i. stuff is not available on the older phones. you need a 15 pro from last year to use it. on the imacs side. >> what are the margins? >> they eat the cost. they pay apple and recoup the losses. i don't know the margin on the phones. it's high. that's the answer. >> you can ask a.i. if it is worth it. >> what did you ask? >> some users find it useful. many analysts are arguing it is

not compelling enough. >> they were not looking at dan ives notes. >> that's what chatgpt? >> i don't disclose which a.i. i use. >> you can use grok? >> easiest one for me. >> he doesn't know how to get to the others. >> don't i have to sign up for the others? >> you have to sign up for all of them. >> i didn't have to sign up for this. >> perplexity? i created an account. >> i don't have a google account. i don't have that. >> do you use google? >> for a search engine. >> you don't have g-mail? you have a hotmail. >> all my mail is hot. i don't have a hotmail account. >> steve, thank you. >> sure. when we come back, the election and the markets. with will check out the sectors to watch based on who wins white

house. get the best of squawk with your favorite podcast app. you are listen any time. we're coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." in political news, former president donald trump headlined a rally that took place at madison square garden. he was looking to distance himself from a speaker. he joked that puerto rico is a floating island of garbage. the joke does not reflect the views of former president trump or the campaign. unlikely to play well, of course, in the battleground of pennsylvania, which is home to the third largest population of puerto rico in the u.s. other speakers, elon musk and hulk hogan and former new york

mayor rudy giuliani. this took after the three-hour interview with joe rogan on friday. trump stood by his idea of removing income taxes and replace with tariffs. >> did you float the idea of getting rid of income taxes and replace with tariffs? were you serious about that? >> sure. why not? >> a new study of which sector can benefit is sara bianchi. did you work into your thinking about these industries, the idea there would be no federal taxes? >> well, no, we don't have -- we didn't take the whole income tax out of the model. we did assume there will be a real serious tariff war under

president trump 2.0 if he is elected next week. we think that he would be very aggressive with china and also other places where the united states has a trade deficit. mexico, europe would be top of mind. definitely expecting volatility in and around -- in and around some of the trade disruption that we expect. >> how are you narrowing out the tariff piece of this? >> we don't assume what president trump says he would do. 60% across the board on all chinese goods or 10% on all u.s. goods. if he does that, that would be disruptive. our analyst said earnings would go tdown 30% or something like that. however, we think president trump is very serious. lighthizer and others who executed this effort in the first trump administration will be back on the job. we think they have a lot of

executive authority. so, we tried to take it down to some portion thereof. in the first trump term, we went 3% in tariffs to 10%. we have taken it to 20 by the time he would be done this round and similar for the rest of the world. it's quite disruptive, but not what he is proposing on the campaign trail. >> let's talk about the winners and losers. who do you see as the winner and the loser? you would position yourself this morning ahead of the position of former president trump were to win. how does that play out? play it out for the economy and the winners and losers in a harris win. >> what we did in our study is look at three dramatic campaign days from the campaign. the attempted assassination and

the biden debate and the harris debate. we saw the biggest moves in and around the financials with the potential derogatory environment that president biden would put in place. biden has had a very active consumer proptection bureau. we think there would be a more friendly m&a environment under trump. financials are a clear winner. for harris, clean energy across the board. a little bit bifurcated in healthcare. some healthcare stocks benefit from the affordable care act do better under harris. some managed care under trump. now we are seeing weakness in and rand the peso and the european stocks, that is really the market trying to express what this trade war might mean. >> what do you think of defense stocks in a trump administration? the reason i ask is the natural

reaction to that question historically the past couple weeks has been oh, if you are raytheon, that is great. if you are a lockheed martin, that is great. then i think if elon musk is in there trying to fix this thin and joe lansdale is in there, the raytheons are wrecked because he would try or they would try to revolutionize, hopefully in a good way, the defense department, by becoming more innovative and stock a lot of the pork in the system, which i imagine some of the more legacy traditional defense contractors currently benefit from. >> that's certainly true. if they are able to execute that kind of disruption that musk is talking about, certainly that would be harmful to some of the legacy industries that have benefitted from defense contracts for years.

i'm not totally sure that a lot of people have tried those ideas over the years. everybody from john mccain get rid of pork. it's alive and well. i'm not sure elon musk will get the job done there. either way, i do think you're right, i think we try of republicans and friendly defense. you think of the ukraine supplementals that have helped defense companies and stocks, but we do know that trump is less supportive of there. all in all, i'm not sure defense is a clear winner even if mukelon musk can't get the job done. >> sarah, do you take over which candidate is better for the economy or stock market or all that? >> i think traditionally, people remember trump good for the stock market. i think they are remembering a different economic plan.

an economic plan that was a really fueled by corporate rate cut and the stuff around tifs sta tariffs came later. here, we will see he will extend the current tax rates, however, that's not going to necessarily provide a new fiscal impulse. at the same time, the tariffs and immigration stuff, again, not exactly what he's proposing will be dramatic and our estimate has that being a growth on inflation. while the stock market may initially be excited for a trump 2.0, i think it will be more of a bumpy ride than last time. >> sarah, thank you. good morning. good to see you. >> you got it. coming up, taiwan semiconductor is suspending

shipments to a chinese prior after a chip was found on a huawei device. details coming up next. clem's not a morning person. or a... people person.

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last week, we told you a reuters report that a taiwan semiconductor chip was found on a huawei device. now the reuters report said taiwan semi suspended chips to designer softco after a chip made found on a huawei a.i. processor. s softco ordered chips matched one found on the huawei device. >> did you say softco before?

that caught me. >> softco. i assume it is ph. it is a play on software. >> yeah. meantime, shares of hawaiian electric are moving higher. when we come back, united airlines is the best performer in the s&p 500 ts arr. wl dig into that move with the analyst next. "squawk box" will be right back.

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we got some breaking news from boeing right now. i want to get straight to phil lebeau. what you got? >> reporter: andrew, we have the equity raise we were expecting. the capital raise, total of $18.9 billion is what boeing will be going to the street to raise in capital. once they are finished with this, 13.9 billion will be new equity that will be sold, depending on the final pricing of the stock as sold approximately $13.9 billion and an additional $5 billion in mandatory convertible preferred sh shares. $18.9 billion is how much boeing is raising in this capital raise, most were expecting 10 to 15 billion, not a huge prize that it's higher than anticipated. 18.9 billion is the amount of

the capital raise. guys, back to you. >> phil lebeau, thank you. we'll see the stock up just marginally. >> that's going to be dilutive. say boeing turns things around, we issued these shares -- >> time to buy back stock. >> yes. now is that okay for the company or should they be criticized for a buyback three years from now if they decide that's how they want to manage the balance sheet. that's the problem with all buy backs are bad. you know what i mean? is this something we should celebrate. something aoc would say a share sale. >> you don't want to celebrate this, this is an emergency scenario -- >> if all buy backs are bad -- >> i would celebrate they 'able

to raise this. we need this company to survive. it's the same question with the airlines. additional shares that they issue to the government and beyond. >> right. and they're constantly, you know, partying when times are good and then what happened when times are bad, help us out. >> i also hope they wouldn't have to be buying back the shares because they're investing in the business all the time. >> extend to 30 million. >> it's a valid question. >> i have a question dn. >> from boeing to the airlines, our next guest said they'll be impacted by the boeing strike the most. joining us is tom fitzgerald, td cowan's airline analyst. this breaking news, 18.9 billion for a capital raise for boeing. i would assume that's good news for the companies in your space

to say, okay, they could have access to the capital they will need to make sure they're up and running. >> they're looking for boeing to right the ship and get back on track and eager to get deliveries of the planes. i think investors on the other hand are happy for the planes to be delayed. never bad for the industry to not have enough capacity. >> that's an interesting point. we were talking earlier about how united is the top performer among the entire s&p 500 for the quarter so far. the biggest gainer. not often you see an airline at the top. is that a reason why? they're not going to have to pay for planes that aren't being delivered? >> it's a confluence of pfactor. i think a lot of industry dynamics have shifted in favor of united and delta coming out of the pandemic and united is in the sweet spot right now. they recently announced they'll be returning capital to

shareholders. we think they're in the captain's seat, they can keep aircraft in service longer, they can pivot to aerobus. >> that's not to take anything away from the ceo, scott kirby who has done a phenomenal job managing the company at united. year to date up by mar than 85%. that's still phenomenal. you still have a buy rating. is that target $100? >> that's correct. we think there's great value here. it went from trading under four times next year's earnings to closer to six. we think delta and united should trade around eight times and prior to the pandemic they were double digits so there could be room to run. >> in terms of expectations for what the boeing strike means for the companies we a also said

that united is probably the one most likely to be impacted by this. how does this th play out? >> they have 476 firm orders for boeing aircraft. taking a plane a week for the next year so every week the strike rolled on, that was a plane shifting right. they were able to take a bad situation with the delays and make good decisions with it. so it wasn't as much of an issue as it's been for southwest who it led them to have too many larger aircraft on certain routes and now such is a large order book that's pushed out to the right they're looking to monetize it and sell the planes as they slow their growth. >> what's your view of shares of southwest? >> we rate them a hold. a great company and we think margins go higher but their multiples should probably compress so we think there's

better opportunity in shares of united and delta. >> overall, tom, it sounds like you don't think the boeing strike is a massive impact at least for the short term for the stocks you cover. what are about longer term? we need a strong boeing, just as a country we need a strong boeing. >> absolutely. and these airlines want these planes you can only keep older planes in service for longer, they're less fuel efficient and the maintenance payments go up and they become unreliable. near term it's manageable but they want them back on track over the longer term and it's good for everybody. >> united's ceo said all that capacity has started to exit the market. what does that mean realistically, who's leaving, where is it going? >> it's markets like chicago, denver, add ltlanta, we've seen low cost care yriers pulling ba

so big for united who are still one of the only carriers in those areas to grow shares on the economy side where the pressure has been. >> what's the view on delta? just your positioning? >> great company excited for the reporting next month. >> airlines tend to fly high and then often these stocks collapse. what's -- what is your concern, what's the thing you look out for, what's the thing that worries you for the companies that are doing well like the uniteds and the deltas? >> i think the big black swan events are the no see ums, whether it's the september 11th attacks or the pandemic, you

can't predict it ahead of time. so i think the guys have a chanceover rerating like they did in the early 2010s, 1990s. it's not a set it and forget it sector like health care or technology, though. >> i want to thank you for joining us this morning. we appreciate your time. >> thank you so much. it is just abilout 7:00 a.m almost if you wait five seconds. >> three, two, one. >> it's 7:00 a.m. here on the east coast. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. among the top stories. delta airlines suing crowd strike accusing the company of breach of contract and negligence following july's global outage knocking out millions of computers, causing several thousand flight cancellations. crowd site said delta's claims

reflect a way to deter their responsibility for a slow response. we've been hearing from both sides about this for months. the fact that delta has taken the step leads me to believe they wouldn't if they thought they didn't have a case. but we'll see where this all goes next. crude prices falling over the weekend after saturday's strike by iran focused on military targets avoided oil, nuclear and military infrastructure. iran vowed to respond and saying the oil industry was working normally. and mcdonald's said the quarter pounder hamburgers are going to return to roughly 900 restaurants this week after pulling it from the menu ahid a deadly e. coli outbreak. but the affected restaurants will serve those burgers if you like them, you can get them, but

no slivered onions for the foreseeable future. may not get them for a while. if that's your favorite part, think about you may have to get some chicken mcnuggets. health authorities continue to investigate the source of the outbreak. >> it's interesting delta suing crowd strike because delta's point was, we were so reliant on crowd strike because we took them at their word. it's going to be interesting if you go to a court of law and say you shouldn't have listened to us. you shouldn't assume we could do what we said. good luck defending against that. >> i'm hungry looking at those. i don't want to get e. coli. >> i think they're fine. if it's just the onions. and it was only a certain area. >> it's diced unon where you knows. >> it's diced on a big mac,

slivered on a quarter pounder. dom chu could ask him. a look at this morning's movers. if dak -- that would have been a time for dak to earn the money and make jerry jones happy but that didn't happen. you could have lost if that happened. >> i would say, as you guys recall, i had to wake up early this morning because i was working worldwide exchange. >> you didn't see it. >> no. i watched the whole thing but i didn't go to bed until 11:45 and i had to get up at 2:00 for work. i'm also thinking about cheeseburgers because you keep talking about this. when i was growing up, my dad who is funny, remember jack in the box had a bad food borne illness issue, back in the 1990s, and i remember my dad

saying jack in the box is probably the safest place to eat now because of what happened in the wake of that. i would say mcdonald's looking for a safe cheeseburger, mcdonald's is a safe place to be right now. >> probably right. let's get to the morning movers. shares of trump media and technology right now up about 7% or so in the premarket level touching levels we've seen in july ahead of the tuesday election next week. trump media has been one of the most volatile stocks this year. in the wake of the big madison square garden event last night keeping an eye on trump media and telecom and technology. and watching shares of nvidia, the climb a percent or so, helped along by analysts reiterating as an overweight saying it remains one of the top picks in the semiconductor

industry. head to cnbc.com for more on that. and nvidia did cross the $3.5 trillion market cap threshold so roughly around, just about maybe not too far-off in terms of market cap differential so we'll see whether or not that 3.5 trillion flips around and we get a new world's most valuable company. we'll round out the morning movers here, with shares of phillips, the dutch health conglomerate. they're down 16.5%, reporting results. they're saying free cash flow will fall to the lower end of the expected range on a, quote, significant deterioration in china, shares up around 17, 18%. but a big health care company in europe weighing things down there, joe. now i'm going to think about cheese burgers. back to you guys. >> i switched to the breakfast

side of things, thinking about a sausage and egg mcmuffin. >> i would rather have a quarter pounder at 6:00 in the morning than an egg mcmuffin at 8:00 at night. >> really? >> that's a personal preference. we're all different. thanks, dom. >> you got it. when we come back, while surveys show a small percentage of undecided voters there may be more voters up for grabs than first appears. and then tesla jumping 23% in a week on earnings and forecast. is it a time to buy? we'll look at that stock. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." with the presidential race a virtual dead heat it may come down to those who have yet to make up their mind by who are those people? steve liesman has a new look at who they might be and how they might vote from our cnbc all america economic survey. good morning. >> good morning we call them the persuadables. they're either unsdecided or tod us they could change their mind. there's more than you might think. 16% of all voters nationally comp prized of 6% undecided. that's the part you know but 10% say they could change their minds. they are somewhat more trump persuadable voters than those for harris. 87% of voters say they'll

definitely vote for trump, 87% of trump voters say they'll vote for trump. 12% said they could change their mind. that compares to 92% of harris voters, and 7% are on the fence. but more persuadable in the battleground states, and 53% more women with whom harris does better versus 45% men. but 24% republicans so more likely to vote for trump versus 19% democrat. and 22% college grads. this points to the importance of the get out the vote effort for both sides. trump has a 37 point lead among blue collar workers and 21% among the less educated. both say they're less interested in the average voter in the election. same is true for the poor

working class which trump has a 16 point advantage. harris' problem getting voters of color to the poll, a 27 point lead with that group but also somewhat more low intensity voters. the average voter has an interest of but trump voters are just below the average, harris just above it at 9.2. this shows the election comes down to whether harris gets more votes persuades women to her side. for trump it's about keeping those persuadable republicans on his side and getting blue collars workers to come out. and it has to happen in the battleground states. andrew? >> steve, can i jump in. >> yes. >> what you were talking about the persuadables in the battleground states versus nationally, it looks like there's fewer in the battleground states, 13% versus

16? >> i think that's right. more in the national than in the -- i think i misspoke there, yeah. >> i guess that makes sense because that's where the advertising like billions of dollars of advertising has been focused. you talk to anybody in the battleground states and they will say they're so ready for this election to be over because they're bombarded be it every year they go. >> what's interesting we had a question about that, we asked if they saw more trump ads or harris ads and they're seeing more harris ads. she's using her financial advantage in the battleground states. and what's interesting is, those numbers are even larger for the persuadable voters so she seems to be able to be targeting her advertising at those persuadable voters. >> you didn't answer my email, i didn't understand that. >> did you email me, i missed it. >> honestly? >> i did miss it. i didn't see it.

>> oh, look at that. >> i was a little bit sad. yeah, the unbroken chain was broken. maybe my favorite dead song and phil loesch passed away at 84 and also from "box e rain. i don't know if you talked to anyone that you know but recently i saw phil lesh what was it called the back, he was performing in march or april, he was fine. what can you tell us? >> well, he was a little weak i have to say. i was at that show in the capital theatre in march where he played. joe, this is a kind note i appreciate this, i'm sorry i didn't see this. i was busy at that hour. >> you blew me off. >> i was busy at that hour organizing a memorial concert my

bad did that afternoon. >> that would have been good for you to get it. >> we had 500 people at a free show, the stella blues they worked it up and everybody worked for free to bring it together and just memorialize a great musician and artist. song writer, rewrote the book on how to play the bass. >> beautiful. >> one thing about him you may not know, he ended up fostering the careers of a lot of younger musicians. he brought along his son, who's a great talent we'll hear more from him. but he was on stage with phil and friends with tons of younger musicians, elliott peck, people you may not have heard of. and phil would play -- he'd even play with me. he got on stage with our band. it's cite remarkable what he did with the second half of his

career after being monumental, historical figure in the music world and he turned his attention to bringing along younger people. >> i don't think. you think of a bass player's rhythm he's almost a lead bass player. he had riffs totally different than just keeping the beat. i think of "unbroken chain" paul mccartney did that too amazing bass players. >> yeah. jack bruce. one of the things i don't know how many greatful dead concerts you went to. >> only a couple. >> there was a phil zone. people decided where they want to stay was in front of phil. people used to wait for him to drop these big bombs that would shake the entire stadium. >> other than box, he wrote

unbroken chain also, did he write that? >> yeah. he was involved in a lot of their writing, joe, actually. like "dark star" he was involved in writing. a bunch of other songs that were classic grateful dead songs and he was a classical trained musician. i'll spend the next half hour talking about phil. but in any event he was a classically trained musician who brought the idea of classical to the bass. i think you described it well saying what a great bass player he was. >> what if you get an email that says you won a million dollars and need to claim it in the next hour, how do you miss an email? >> i reached out too. >> becky sent me a text and i responded to texas. >> this is to steve liesman,

subject sympathies. >> mine was a text. you should send text instead. >> all right. >> joe, i was out to dinner -- >> we both thought immediately of you. >> i was out to dinner with my wife and sister-in-law, organizing the concert the next day. sorry i will be more attentive to that. >> we're sorry for your loss. >> and thanks to pete shapiro and josh cohen for helping to put on the show saturday. >> did you talk to bob at all? >> reporter: i didn't talk to bob. i know bob is pretty broken up by it. >> we're all getting old. >> we'll see you later, steve. up next a closer look at tesla's stock and what may be next for iesrsnvto. the busiest week of earnings is here. we'll talk broader markets as we head to the final two months of 2024. "squawk box" will be right back. e of almost 1.5 million

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tesla stock is up more than 23% since the company reported quarterly results last week. joining us with more on tesla, collin rush. oppenheimer senior research

analyst. i thought it was somewhat disappointing, some of the stuff that we heard from tesla, why did the stock perform so well. i guess it's in the eye of the beholder. >> there's a couple of things one the gross margins on auto side were better than expected and it's clear that the company is self-sustaining from a cash flow perspective. as they continue to go on an ev maker it extends the run way on the ability to deliver on the autonomy opportunity. while we have caution around that autonomous, people are giving them more credit on that run way and delivering on that promise. >> if you were just looking at the prospects for selling cars, selling teslas around the world for premium prices, that part of it is -- is it -- would that cause you to buy the stock here? even some of the profit being so

profitable a lot of it had to do with the pure profit the company gets from selling the environmental credits to other auto makers. >> when we look at it, it was, you know, about a little less than $800 million in revenue credit they had in the quarter. so there's a meaningful contribution to the net income from those credits and that comes from multiple geographies. but at the end of the day we look at half if not more of the value ascribed to their a.i. opportunity and particularly autonomy as the first application within that a.i. bucket. for us the ev opportunity is meaningful they're executing on it well, continue to drive costs lower and have great products. but the a.i., you know, bucket of profit pull they're trying to dip into here is what's driving the value on the stock and we think they're further off from being able to deliver on that than the stock is saying at this

point. >> if it does go, collin to -- i think we were a little bit surprised maybe that 30 trillion someone would mention that number for what the company could be worth and then why stop at 30, you know, figure that's like austin -- >> austin powers, terminal value. >> why talk about trillions when you can talk about billions. how much would be the car business to get to anywhere say a multiple of what the market cap is now? how much is it still electric cars and how much is everything else under the tesla umbrella? >> we're looking at the potential for them to grow into 5 to $6 of earnings by 2027, 2028, so if you put a multiple on that in the high teens you can get into the maybe $120 range for the stock. looking at the energy storage business 20 to $30 and the value

is driven by the a.i. potential and they have a capable engineering team working on these opportunities but it really comes down to when and what the competitive environment looks like. and right now from a regular a the la our -- regulatory perspective they're behind. and so the testing process is going to take a fair amount of time before they can monetize that in their real bank. >> what about china, competition from china, how is that going to play out? does it matter who's elected? >> at this point, you know, you look back at history and look at what happened with chinese -- or i'm sorry japanese automakers, korean automakers you end up having to make vehicles locally and in domestic markets. so the question is what is the technology underlying that. we're seeing the oems in europe

and the u.s. making investments on driving cost reduction. i think the european market is a real example of what may happen where we see byd starting to penetrate that market in a bigger way but starting to actually manufacture in eastern europe and turkey. in the u.s. i think it's going to be hard in this political environment to see chinese automakers start to penetrate this market in a timely fashion that would take share from the existing manufacturers that are already here. >> did you know he was going to say no $25,000, just go straight to the -- >> i think we understood that. the point that they said we're going to go to, you know, the version b 2.5 and get halfway there on the existing platform it doesn't make sense to go to the low end vehicle, especially when you can monetize some of the functionality at a higher rate. i don't think they need to drop

down to those price levels to continue to grow. we actually had units growing ahead of our peers on the street here in '25 and '26 and i think they'll continue to grow into that opportunity. they do have better evs than most of the competitors on the road at this point i don't think they need to drop down to the low end. >> your price target where is it? >> we don't have price target here. the stock is kind of in no man's land right now we think. >> collin, thanks. coming up after the break, the ceo on the betting market and increase in volume as we head into the final days before the election. robinhood now offering the opportunity for customers to bet the olympic -- the olympics i was about to say, it l'sike the olympic games, as we head to the break, a check on the premarket

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boeing launching a stock offering that could raise up to

$19 billion. the company is offering 90 million in common shares and $5 million in depdepositary sha to boost finances since workers walked off the job in september halts production of models including the 737 max aircraft. earlier this month, boeing entered into a $10 billion credit agreement with banks and announced plans to raise $5 billion through stock and debt offerings. and the stock initially traded off is now up by .3%. 155.50 is where boeing is trading now. a big week of earning ahead, stocks across half a dozen sectors are set to report. a break in what's in the markets. and then betting on the election we'll speak to the ceo of betting platform kalshi about

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this is the busiest week of the earnings season with about a

third of the s&p 500 companies reporting. five of the magnificent seven companies are on deck this week. for more on the markets we want to bring in kara murphy, thanks for coming in today. >> thanks for having me. >> so far so good is what we would say at this point? >> pretty much. this week will be the magnificent seven show with five of seven reporting it'll be extraordinarily important. collectively those seven names are expected to grow earnings by 18% year over year, an incredible rate given the growth they've seen. but the names have to show up and represent and get people excited about moving forward. it's not just this quarter it's what happens into 2025. when you look at everybody else, though, the 490 plus are expected to have flat earnings this year so these guys have to come and not blow it. >> if one or two misses that could drag down the averages because they make up such is a

big portion of the afternoons. >> absolutely. that's the risk of the concentrated market not just in terms of market cap but earnings power so anyway one could muck up the party. >> you say there's a shift taking place looking at this quarter and into next quarter what's happening beneath the surface? >> it's incredible. you see magnificent seven with the earnings power going into 2025 but not as great as the past. at the same time you have the rest of the market accelerating earnings. flat earnings this quarter into next year we see double digit earnings. so there's a big shift and has to be a handoff from the guys who have led us here to what happens next year. >> is that likely to happen? i know you like mid caps overall, if you look at small caps that's an issue for a couple of years at this point.

>> 100%. this is about the fed handling the soft landing. but it's a bit of a fine line in order to get there. small caps is where you start to get more risky, those folks are susceptible to the macro environment, mid caps more protected with solid businesses. >> i heard people talk about how for smaller businesses it's tougher to get loans reflective of what the fed is doing right now, still looking at high rates for things. >> that's true. when you look at the fed interest cuts, it's 50 basis points so above what the companies have gotten used to a couple of years ago so it'll take time to filter through. >> if the fed does not continue to cut rates. >> that's less of a tail wind. why we prefer smaller end of large cap into mid cap, these are folks not as reliant as interest rates coming in. they need a decent operating environment in order to grow

earnings. >> what about the bond market looking at debt, how do you feel about that situation? >> looking out to high yield that's an why jr. we don't feel great about. as you said, like there's some tailwind from lower interest rates but looking at spread those are among the lowest we've seen historically, going into corporate, we're more comfortable, more mature businesses spreads aren't as tight so we're more comfortable in that area. >> it's been a phenomenal year watching the market. do you think we'll get the post election bounce we typically get? >> we're a little less excited about a post election bounce. part is looking at how extraordinarily well the s&p has done overall headed into this period. volatility has been higher lately but relatively low for an election year and i think we may have pulled forward some of the gains headed into the latter part of the year. >> kara, thank you for coming in today. coming up, the ceo of the

prediction platform kalshi and the surge in election betting. it's happening. and today robinhood announcing its user will be allowed to bet as well. coming up, byron donalds and donna edwards join us next. all of that as "squawk box" rolls on right after this.

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robinhood is using interactive brokers x for the event contracts. but here at the table, the guy who started it all, election betting, kalshi has reported over $80 million on the trade after the company listed the legal betting this month. joining us now the is ceo. i was looking on the app store, because you mentioned it, he's beating most of the apps on the app store. >> really? >> it's kind of a crazy situation. so tell us what's happening. how many people have you onboarded since this all began, and what are you seeing? >> demand has exploded in all election markets now we have close to $200 million traded already. we are now number one on the finance app so we overtook cash app which had the spot for i don't know how many years now. and on the global app store i think we are just about to

breach number 10, just overtook facebook, uber, spotify and a few other apps. we're gunning for number one by election day. >> what kind of -- of the amount of bets people are making? >> it's a large diversity. people are saying that theed ones are -- the trump odds are up because there are a few whales pushing the odds up. we are regulated onshore, only americans and on kalshi, the average bet size is slightly larger for kamala harris than donald trump so it's more betters on donald trump than kamala harris. >> what are the amounts of the bets? >> it ranges. the average bet size is around 300, $400, but there are people doing millions. so people are doing -- >> but the fears of what we talked to you about seem to be

borne out by the french whale with four accounts but then it turned out it was only $28 million versus billions. it was .1% and looked like it was some french guy who thinks trump is going to win and wants to make $28 million is what it looks like or is it manipulated by someone who wants -- i was kidding. i said it was the french guy, elon musk was the guy -- but it's not elon. >> it's not elon. it's important to differentiate and say this always. prediction markets now signs have many flavors, more competitors coming out. >> which i want to ask you about what the implication is going to be for you. >> it's great. it's like crypto ten years ago you see operators, some good, some bad and between the unregulated players, versus places like ckals hhi.

>> what's the difference between robinhood and your exchange? >> we have more contracts. they do one market we have a suite. we have much more liquidity. you can take $10,000 there, on kalshi you can take millions without moving the price. we have better margin methodology and so on. >> looking at the folks doing this -- trump is up by how much? >> 62% as of this morning. >> what do you think that reps? you think that will be an accurate representation on the day after of where things ultimately land? how do you sort of calculate this sort of, you know, theory of crowds here? >> it's a great question. i think people are confusing the odds these markets are giving us with polling. so people are seeing things like trump is up by 24 points and --

if trump is up 24 points in the polls, that's like 100% chance of winning, that's done. >> this is not the case. >> this is a coin flip with a bias. it's a bias coin flip and now it's bias by 60/40. so it's still a coin flip. it's bias, though. 40% chance of winning is not zero percent chance of winning. >> what do you do after this election with the platform you created? >> we always think these prediction markets or any markets are marketplace and marketplace have what we call an activation energy they need a critical mass once you hit that critical mass they kind of work people share them, the press talks about them, everybody uses them. eric adams, will he be ousted as the mayor of new york? will tiktok get banned next year? so it's -- >> so you think this is going to

change everything. you think all of a sudden -- here's a real question. right now we're talking about your market and others as a -- i don't know if it's a moment of -- moment of truth or something but as a metric. >> yes. >> do you think we are going to start using whether mayor adams is going to lose his job or tiktok, as you said, is going to be kicked out of the u.s. and whatever that stat is wthat we will be talking about the stat oftentimes around the table in the future? >> that's up to you more. i think now that people are used to the idea -- it took time to get used to the concept of odds and what are they saying about the future, why not? now asking a question will tiktok get banned? who are we relying on to get that answer now there's a

market-based reckmechanism. >> my question is do you think it influences behavior like polls do? >> i think any -- it's a question of reflex. it's the market gaining something and you're asking does the market change the results of something happening? there could be scenarios that happens and it's possible. we have an example on the fed interest rate. we know the interest rate swaps they do influence the fed's decision. that's not necessarily a bad thing. it's good that we have -- we don't have a surprise and shock every time these things happen. i think the markets could do that. >> but they don't become self-fulfilling prophesies? that's what we're getting at here, that it influences the outcome. the markets can influence the outcome. it's a philosophical conc

conception -- conceptual idea. >> for interest rates t the fmoc wants the market to not be shocked. if they're not reading the way they want, they may talk ahead of time to try to convince the market ahead of time. >> what's the house right now? do you do the house too? house of representatives? >> so the house is -- i think it's 50/50 and the senate is deeply, deeply -- >> and then a sweep on certain polls is almost 50/50. >> yeah. the sweep is 50/50 now because -- >> republican -- >> for republican. and you have the swing states -- >> swing states are out of control. like 70/30. >> he's closest in i think nevada. >> does it matter that -- i see when people criticize polymark they say americans aren't -- because they can't vote they have no idea about the election

or how they want to bet. in other words, do you think because americans can vote because voters can now -- is that more accurate than if no u.s. voters are voting -- are betting? >> so i would say what you have with cls kalshi i think americans are better than non-americans. >> you do. >> you have more guarantee there's no manipulation. >> let me ask you two other questions. in terms of payouts how are you going to do the payouts? what is going to be the deciding factor in terms of who wins when will you get the payout? is this going to go on for months? is it a judge that will have to adjudicate this? >> that is a great question. you spend six months on this. we had to hire election law and election integrity experts. we had the team actually working on the payout. so the kalshi market is the only one, as of now, and i think it is actually the most certain one

out of all the markets out there. it settles january 20th not november 5th is and january 6th because the election is not decided until then. the only determining factor, decisive thing is -- >> who gets inaugurated. >> who gets inaugurated. anything before that is not final. >> so the payout will not come until january 20th. >> correct. but people are getting paid interest on their bets as it's sitting. so most people are okay with that. and they can exit if they want to at 99 percent. >> do you think there will be a lot of people arbitraging the situation. >> i think there will be if there's a small percentage chance of whoever was called ends up being overturned for some reason. >> what happens to your business if the other big players outside the u.s. now ultimately are able to somehow register their

businesses here in the u.s., what happens to you? >> i have yet to see an example of an unregulated business operating outside the bounds of the law let in. you have the fcc chairpeman her and he had his thoughts about the platforms operating illegally. >> you think they're operating illegally? >> i let -- >> that was a suggestion you just made if i was reading -- >> i think -- >> not even reading between the lines i think i was reading on the lines. >> any offerings to the u.s. customers without regulation is blatantly illegal. >> i don't think they're doing that. >> i can't comment on that. i will say we're more excited about legal and regulated competition in the space that's a good thing. >> do you think there are a lot of americans that are playing the markets outside of the u.s.? illegally. >> i can't say for sure. but i mean, you see it, you

know, there are a lot of people on twitter. >> 65/35 still sounds like a coin flip. kind of but how would you translate that into like someone wrote in, i don't know if that is true. that's a two touchdown underdog. can you translate into that kind of points would you get on a 65/35 football bet? is it really two touchdowns? because two touchdowns is better than a coin flip. although it can happen. >> it depends on how much time is left. >> anything can happen. >> depends how much time is left in the game. you're two-thirds up. you have three-sided dui, rolling it and two sides come out trump -- >> we all remember 2016 when it went from 98-2. >> it's possible. i say two things, 40% chance is not zero. it's actually pretty high. >> it's high. >> eight to nine days is very

long in these markets. where we were eight to nine days ago is close to 50/50. >> especially with what we've seen this election season and the concerns with what could happen with a.i. >> so many news, a lot of misinformation on either side and crazy things happening. so i think the next week i expect a lot of big events to land and it will move up or down. >> thank you for coming in this morning. >> thanks for havingme. >> "squawk box" coming right back after this. it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow! wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked injections. dehydratech processing of a glp-1 drug demonstrated

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the price of bitcoin climbing over $68,000 this morning up 100% in the last year. let's look at the trends in the crypto markets. joining us is matthew segal, head of digital assets research at van ecc. there are a variety of things that we've tried to correlate with bitcoin movements and kind of less and less successful at anything we can count on almost. but it seems that when trump started moving up in some of the betting sites it does seem like the most latest run from 57 to almost 70 seems to be correlated with the betting odds improving.

is that fair to say in your view? >> i agree with that. trump is clearly the more pro crypto and bitcoin conditioned. vp harris hasn't said a word on it. one doubts she truly understands it. the most significant long-term correlations for bitcoin are a negative correlation with the u.s. dollar and a positive correlation with money supply growth or m 2. so clearly the latter front growth has reaccelerated with the fed pivot. also the seller's exhaustion. the u.s. and german government sold olympian in the last month and that has eased and the election is helping. polls are helping. >> why did they do that? >> german government seized a couple of billions in bitcoin in a crime and sold it in august

because they don't like it. >> you said it spitefully i don't know whether you had the adje adjective, maybe it's an adverb. couldn't a correlation with the money supply explain why it seems to be total liquor lated with the risk assets if there's a lot of liquidity risk assets seem to go up therefore bitcoin seems to be going up and down, doesn't seem a safe haven, seems total li totally correlated with the nasdaq or whatever. >> the correlations change over time. the correlation with bitcoin is a .19 low. over the last three months it's a .5 p, a two and a half year high. and they may be keeping some allocators on the side. we saw the exact same pattern in 2020 where bitcoin lagged with low volatility and once a winner was announced we had a high vol

rally as new buyers come into the market. every day there's new buyers being born. it's like the video game industry. the olds who hate it die off, news are buying it. we think once the election result is finalized. moodies is going to downgrade u.s. sovereign debt and that could be a catalyst for bitcoin. >> doesn't gold correlate with the dollar and m 2 as well? and gold and bitcoin seem like the correlation broke down a couple of times recently? >> bitcoin is a camillian. it's hard to predict what it's correlated with. >> you say it's because of the of the 21 million and fixed amount out there therefore the debasement of the currency favors -- that's -- >> yeah. >> some people call it fairly dust. >> it's a non-u.s. asset.

bricks had a conference in russia, there's six new members so their gdp is greater than the combined gdp of g 7 of the six new members three of them, argentina, uae and ethiopia are mining bitcoin with government resources so there's urgency outside the u.s. to find a way to circumvent the fiscal policy here in the u.s. russia announced their fund is going to invest in a regional fund to build bitcoin mining throughout bricks with an idea of settling global trade in bitcoin. some day, i don't know if it's five years or ten years, putin is going to die we're going to look to reintegrate these countries into the world system and they're trading in bitcoin what are we doing? >> are you stunned?

>> no. just processing. >> processing? >> processing. >> when will that be complete? >> r the processing? >> ever yes. so you can make a comment. >> when is bitcoin going to be complete? >> reporter: i have no idea. you sound what you think it's going to be a $100,000 asset soon, 200. >> yes. the smallest ever rally was 2,000% half of that, 1,000%. >> when does this all go down? not down, when does it all happen? >> i think after the election will be a significant catalyst. you can see it front page of "the wall street journal" talking about debt and deficit concerns. moodies is telegraphing this. >> like cathie wood, how do you feel about her predictions? >> i don't think about them much. >> do you think she's right, 500,000 is where she's at very soon, actually. >> we have a model that assumes

by 2050, this is long term, bitcoin becomes a reserved asset used in global trade and held at global central banks at a modest 2% rate and in that model we arrive at $3 million price point for bitcoin that's extreme but a 16% compound growth rate for a couple of decades not that extreme so into the millions is a high prediction call. >> thanks. it's just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. among today's top stories boeing launching a stock offering that could raise close to $20 billion, the company is offering 90 million common shares and $5 billion into repository shares that move should strengthen boeing's

finances have have taken hits from a door plug blowout and a machinist strike. apple a.i. is launching a software update today. more advanced features like chatgpt aren't yet available. those will probably come in december or next year. and quarterbkw quarter poundersn to mcdonald's restaurants this week. affected restaurants will be serving the burger without the slivered onions for the foreseeable future. authorities have zeroed in on the onions as a likely source of the e. colio outbreak. we want to get to mike santoli. >> good morning. the s&p 500 looking to pick up some of the modest losses of last week. we had a six week win streak going into last week. the s&p 500 down close to 1%. the majority of stocks digested

gains prior and were lower but some of the mag seven perking up, looks like an orderly process here. now independent of general seasonal patterns, election year patterns, the market today embarks on one of the strongest multi-day periods in history whatever that is worth now through the first of november so we are getting a bid as the market goes down. this is a big element of what's going on in markets. a big steep rise higher. economic numbers stronger than forecast over this period of time. this rough liquor lates to when treasury yields started to pick up to the upside. a lot of factors feeding in but this is a big part of the backdrop. we have employment data coming in as well. so it's a question of whether yields impinge on equity values hasn't happened yet but ten year

four and a quarter has the market's attention. mag seven has not been as dominant as a category of stocks over the last four months and within the mag seven there's a lot of divergence. this is important going into the earning season, they're based on fundamentals or perspectives. you have meta and apple outperforming the four month period of time and the likes of microsoft and alphabet are on the down side so it's not one big block trading. it's been a stock by stock proposition here, guys. >> thanks, mike. want to bring in jason renner, the chairman and ceo of berit. we're a little more than a week out, what are you doing ahead of the election? >> not doing much, i have to say and i think a lot of companies aren't doing much either because a range of outcomes on the two

candidates in my opinion is quite wide. but i think at the margin we're telling people to be bullish until the bill comes due which means until you have a big, you know -- until you get interest rates closer to five, i think it's hard to be short this market. >> i thought when you said you're bullish until the bill comes due, you're bullish until the treasury market says forget it we're not paying for this anymore because we need to find a way to fix the deficit. >> because we're spending money like it's going out of style. >> nobody knows when that's going to happen. >> no one knows. we've done a lot of work that suggests that once you have one wave of inflation over 6%, we looked historically over 100 years. the chance of getting another wave of inflation are about 9 and 10. >> is that because of the wage

inflation. >> i think that's part of it. >> as prices go up, people demand more in the paychecks. >> the first wave it happened so quickly workers don't get -- they fall behind. you're seeing that with some of the union contracts. >> boeing just turned around 35%. >> the long shoreman someone had the guts to say 60% over six years that seems aggressive. i don't know if i'd ask that guy too many tough questions but he said listen, it's really 60% over ten years because you have to look at the past four years we're behind. >> and that makes sense but we made a big point of the idea that unions are only about 10% of the workforce at this point. does that translate to gains for the broader workforce or is it different for real this time? >> in the 70s about 30% of the workforce was unionized so it was easier to have a wage price spiral than before. now there are more public sector union members than private

sector union members. i think it does send a signal to other workers at the margins, especially when you have the unemployment rate at this level, still have a fair amount of job openings, those things do provide an important signal to the rest of the labor market, right. so it may not be as strong but it -- >> you said that you don't think you can short this market. my question is, post election could you see chaos? on either side, by the way, depending on who wins? what would that chaos look like and mean? we haven't really talked about that prospect? >> i think listen it -- unfortunately in this country we've become somewhat accustomed to not knowing the winner since 2000, happened more often than not you don't know the winner. but the market seems somehow to have, you know, come to terms with that, that's just part of our system. >> both sides predict doom if

the other side gets elected and it just is keeps going on. >> the thing about markets and industries generally speaking is that they keep it simple which is to say is this going to be good for me, bad for me. i think if there were a blue wave or if kamala would win -- you may know it's my own personal opinion -- that would be worse for the financial markets than if donald trump wins -- >> would you prefer -- here's a question, though, maybe this is a personal question or economic question -- >> yeah. >> -- would you prefer a red wave or i think you -- your preference is for trump to win. >> it is very much so. >> but my question is would you prefer for the senate and house to two red or no? >> yes. i would. >> you would. >> yes. >> for economic purposes or your own personal views? >> let's just say for economic purposes. there's other things going on for me personally in terms of what's happening culturally and this town that i feel strongly

about. putting that aside what i tell my clients is if you have a red wave there are industries like financials that would do great. certain industries, like energy stocks, that would do poorly. you have more drilling. a focus on drill baby drill. so there would be big winners and losers. but i think at the margin you might have a chance of fixing some of the things that are -- >> you don't -- you're not a believer in divided government? >> not at this point. i think -- i think where we're at at this point -- >> he's wanted a red wave just not a blue wave. >> i'm sorry to say this, i'm for divided government if kamala wins, not if trump wins. >> that's interesting. a know a lot of conservative people who said maybe they're voting for trump but they would

therefore then really want to have a divided government. >> free market types are petrified by the tariffs. >> i think the tariffs, dand i'e been involved with the campaign a little bit this year on the economic side and i feel very strongly that president trump views tariffs as a tool to get other things. so i'm not as woierrd about it as other people are. >> no federal taxes when you're done, too. >> frg he's a commercial real estate guy from new york. >> we have to go we'll see you soon. and have the financial freedom to support the next generation of athletes. guy from new york. >> we have to go we'll see you soon. i joined sofi because they've helped millions of members earn more money, save more money, borrow better, and invest for their ambitions. join a generational player. sofi. get your money right.

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former president trump and vice president harris making some of their last economic pitches to voters in the waning days of the presidential campaign. joining us on those proposals, florida republican congressman byron donalds and former democratic congresswoman donna edwards. good to have you both on. i'll start with you, getting down to brass taxes do you think it's okay to get rid of the filibuster and stack the supreme court? are you in favor of both of those proposals? which we got more clarity on. both things are possible in a

kamala harris presidency. >> i think it's actually important that we have legislative rules and tools that allow government to move forward and in recent years we've seen that the filibuster is used to c stimy debate rather than move it forward. so i think it's time for reforms for the filibuster and other rules in the senate that, in particular, keep legislation from moving forward, yes. >> that would mean a couple of maybe scary things. d.c. would probably become a state, the supreme court, i don't know what that would do, it would become almost a legislative branch. wealth tax would probably pass at that point. there are real things that would happen if you end the filibuster that need to be thought through and then when your side is not in, and the other side doesn't have the filibuster, at that

point it might be what we did with judges where democrats are like what happened with the -- you know, what happened with the supreme court or some of the other courts. >> we've already seen that the -- that the enate, especially under republican control, has actually used the rules to bas tarrize the process. i think it's time for reform. the american people expect us to govern and it's impossible to govern when you have a constraint on the rules like a filibuster that don't allow legitimate legislation to come to a vote, the voting rights act, immigration reform, border control and security. these are pieces of legislation that deserve to be heard by the american people and deserve an up or down vote and frankly, the filibuster keeps that from happening. so i do favor reforms.

i mean, there are ways you can do reform that have limited -- more limited application. i'm open to considering those sort of things. but we have to change rules to make sure that we are doing the business of the american people and right now the senate and the house, frankly, are not functioning. >> the business of the american people all sounded like democratic things that -- things that the democratic party business. at least we know that that's -- i think by putting that forward so bluntly it gives people a choice of what they want. >> quick response, it was mentioned that the democrats want to do quote/unquote immigration form. the bill that kamala harris and joe biden put forward, nancy pelosi wouldn't put that bill on the floor. how do i know this? i was a member of the house when they came into power.

she wouldn't put that on the house floor for an up or down vote. you want to talk about the senate quote/unquote bipartisan bill on immigration that kamala harris said she would sign, it couldn't even pass the senate. the senate couldn't get that bill through. and by the way, that bill would have never got a vote on the floor of the house because speaker johnson and leader scalise said that bill was dead on arrival in the house of representatives. >> what else would happen? is it -- if the filibuster went away, what are we looking at? >> you are looking at a situation where we are now majority control in our nation. the senate filibuster frustrates both sides of the aisle but it's there to protect the will of the minority in your country. we are not a mob-ocracy.

we are a constitutional republic and the democrats don't like that because they can't get their way when they happen to amass power. remember the last time, the senate filibuster, 60 votes, dod frank one of the worst pieces of policy in our country, we don't have community banking in america today to the scale we had before 2008 because of a one-way senate control by the democrats. now you have a situation where small businesses don't have the access to capital they need because our banking system is too top heavy because of overregulation out of washington d.c. >> congresswoman? >> look, all i can say is, first of all, when it comes to immigration, a majority of the house and the senate have sup supported strong security legislation that could have been signed by the president but for

being blocked by the minority. this was not the way the country was envisioned to run. do i think that sometimes rules can apply to one party when it's in power and then turn on its head when another is in power, absolutely. but that is -- that is actually part of the -- part of the design. so i'm not afraid of that, and i do think we have key pieces of legislation sitting on the sidelines because a small but vocal minority in the house and the senate cothe levers and that's not fair to the american people. look, in the november election, the american people get to decide the direction of this country and i think the american people are going to decide they want a direction that's forward thinking and not backwards. >> congressman you were there last night i was looking at different depending on with which cable channel you watched or newspaper, look at the cover

of the day, on the one hand, it let's go to the the other side. i saw a black and white on another cable network a black and white video of 1939 and this is what's happening right now in madison square garden. on the other hand on another channel i saw almost participating in the maga rally. you were there. you got both covers andrew? >> i was going to move this. it is "the wall street journal," they say economists warn of potential inflation following election. this is maga square garden. >> than a great one, actually. >> fears over what follows election day we're into the fear category. >> both sides. >> "the washington post" -- >> you have the daily news. >> we haven't talked about "the washington post" and everything going on there.

>> daily news has racist rally. >> racist rally. you were there. were you there the whole time? >> i was there the entire time. so to the new york daily news if you have a black man from florida speenging at the rally, i don't think so. this is the problem with most media today. they're too busy trying to fear monger everything instead of talking about the facts and the substance. it was a great rally last night. donald trump obvious spoke. did he say something off color, no, he did not. i spoke did i say something off color, no, i did not. eric trump, laura trump, don trump jr., elon musk, did they say anything that was off color. >> the campaign itself distanced themselves from the comedian. >> i didn't agree with the comedian. we were all like what? did that get a -- no. nobody agreed with that. nobody but he's also a comedian. we didn't control what he said.

>> it was in the prompter, did the campaign know. >> the teleprompter was not used by everybody. some people used it, i didn't use the teleprompter, some people did, some didn't. >> associated press, trump'san event features crude and racist insults. that did happen you may not be the one making them but that did happen. >> and becky just said it. the campaign has distanced themselves from it they do not agree with it. i do not agree. it was said but nobody agrees with that. >> i have a question. to the extent there are folks who by the way may agree with the policies of trump but don't want to vote for trump. you know some of those people. the reason that they don't want to vote for trump is because they see either in his character or the people who seem to support him, seem to be engaged in that or willing to engage in

that, right? you don't see -- you don't go to other rallies for harris or see in a harris rally that kind of vitriol. you see -- >> you don't? >> i don't think you do. >> kamala harris spends half her time talking about her rival as hitler. after he's been -- there have been tay attempts on his life not once but twice she's doing it now. every official refers to him as adolf hitler. you have hillary clinton out there talking about how this is akin to 1939. are you out of your mind? do you want to talk about rhetoric, let's compare. we are talking about the comments of a comedian and everyone is going to forget it in 48 hours. the real joke is the terrible policy of kamala harris let's talk about the puerto ricans in america today. they have had to live under the same inflation unleashed by kamala harris.

puerto ricans today are living under the same terrible border policies that joe biden and kamala harris unleashed. that's a joke on the people. >> i'm not disagreeing with you. i'm talking about to the extent you can speak to those people out there watching saying i agree with the trump policies but i just can't abide by reading headlines like that. >> in america today. not to cut you off. but in america today we have to decide are we trapped by a media in the headlines who in the tank one way or the other or look at the policy. >> there are people -- >> you can't take it out. >> take the headlines out. >> you can't take it out. we have to decide as americans are we going to be. >> watch the videos. >> are we going to talk about the reality facing our nation, which is we are seriously in decline because of terrible leadership in washington d.c. those are the facts.

>> i can appreciate those. but it was the campaign that put the comedian on the stage instead of talking about the facts you're talking about. and you can look at the social media to find the criticisms of it too. >> i criticize it myself. social media is going to do that because the harris campaign is looking that because they're looking for something to talk about because she has nothing to do talk about. when she goes out and talks she says nothing you. you know this. she's not answering the issues facing the american people so she tries to find a comedian's point at the rally. >> can i say this. we can stipulate and you can decide she doesn't have the right answers that something that people can make up their own mind about but there are people who watch the videos of either that comedian, the fella who's on the radio, some other comments and people just watch it. it's not the media telling them to watch it. you watch it and say to yourself this is not a great situation.

>> watch donald trump he's the one running for president and he has the prescription to put this nation back on track and make it great again. >> glad to have you on. you were there. congresswoman i don't know if you wanted to weigh in on any of that. that's a good head shake we can glean from that. >> when you have a campaign that travels in rain, sexism, hatred, it's not a surprise this is where you end up. >> that's not true. >> it matters who you surround yourself with and byron donald knows that. insulting. >> not true. >> thank you both. we appreciate it. thank you. when we come back we'll talk about israel's military retaliation against iran this weekend for the missile barrage at they fired at israel weeks ago. should investors expect things to quiet down between these two countries? we'll talk about that when "squawk box" comes back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." crude oil prices falling this morning following attacks by israel over the weekend on iranian military installations those in response to ballistic missiles, the massive attack that took place on israel by iran at the beginning of this month. wti crude down in a big way, over 6% this morning. joining us to talk about israel's retaliatory air strikes whether iran could strike back and the potential end game for the consequences in gaza is a senior fellow with the middle east institute. let's talk about the response. it seemed like it was measured. how will this impact things and what do you think the next reaction is? >> good morning, becky. yeah, listen, chess is big in iran. some iranians believe it was invented there. to put this in chess terms,

israel did not go for the kill on saturday morning. did not go after some of the nuclear installations or even the energy infrastructure as many in the markets feared. it did checkmate the islamic republic of iran it took out the air defense capabilities and went after some of the missile sites that were used to attack it earlier in the month. so it now leaves iran virtually exposed for a potential second wave of attacks. and it's essentially signaling to the iranians if you choose to respond in a direct and forceful fashion we can come back. >> do you think a second strike from israel is likely after the u.s. elections? >> certainly the supreme leader in iran is leaving this ambiguous. he did address a crowd after the israeli offensive said they're

currently deliberating and they did not make a decision one way or the other. my sense is, and i think that's currently reflected in the markets and oil prices is that given the success of the israeli offensive, iran would severely miscalculate if it chose to retaliate directly. >> i'm sorry i mean a second direct response from israel. we know that the united states, the administration, has pushed israel to not do more. with the expectation that it could impact the u.s. elections. if the u.s. elections are done a week from tomorrow, would you expect to see israel more freely make additional moves towards iran? >> the chances is certainly out there this could be a multi-stage event, several waves. it's currently unlikely. what happened is proof that the

israeli prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, who probably knows washington better than most israeli politicians did not want to anger the harris campaign by going for a broader strike that might undermine her chances in the elections by setting them on fire however he did keep that door open particularly if iran does respond directly. if there's a president elect trump and come november 6th that gives israel more leeway to act again if we have a president elect harris in the white house i think benjamin netanyahu would have to step forward more carefully. >> you made the point that the damage done to iran's proxies, hezbollah, watching what happened with this, you think this is incredibly striking and something that impeople will look back and say this was a moment in time when there was a major shift? >> absolutely, becky. if the high point of iranian power and power projection in the region was probably after

the arab uprisings and the collapse of the arab state system after 2011 in iraq, in syria, lebanon, yemen. all coming under iranian domination, i think people look back to this war, october 7th of last year and everything that has followed, israeli taking down and degrading hamas, hezbollah, and going after militias and yemen i think this is about influence and seeing the tide turn on the iranian influence in the region. >> thank you for your time today. >> my pleasure. coming up light shed's rich feen grooeld joins us on the media headlines. d ato we know about foreign attempts to influence the election? a ceo of a prom pant security

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welcome back to "squawk box." want to get a few media and tech stories to talk about right now. a report now from the department of justice anti-trust division will support an injunction

against the launch of venue. why don't we start with that story, sir, what do you think? >> that story leaked and came out last week, look, i don't know what it means for venue. it's being appealed to the circuit court but andrew i think that's really important about the story the fact that the doj is bothering to weigh in on this joint venture from warner brothers, disney and fox. i think that's a clear signal these major media companies at least under this administration, i know that may change next tuesday but this administration, the odds of major m&a, people talk about warner brothers merging, and it's hard to imagine that if the government is weighing in on a sport's virtual cable distribution platform called venue? >> is it your view if trump wins

all this shifts or no? >> look, you tell me who's going to be in charge of the doj, obviously jd vance on the campaign trail has said relatively nice things about lina khan in terms of people in the administration. but whether jd vance's views matter for who trump wants to be head, i think at the end of the day, the vp doesn't matter much. trump hasn't opined on these topics so i don't know. obviously sounds like he's pro consolidation. but he hasn't liked the tech comments. made negative comments about google and meta and doesn't like news organizations like yours, andrew, so whether he will allow any consolidation in the sector i think is a big if. >> talk about stocks you like.

you like red it. >> we do. i think you can't turn on cnbc in the last several months, probably the last 1 months and not hear about the a.i. wave and how much it's transforming every industry in the world and the race whether you're looking at google, open a.i., this is an all out arm's race amongst multiple companies. who's the winner? reddit. their data is more valuable, having actual real information not a.i. information to train model os, to ferret information on, as search transforms we see reddit getting more and more valuable and unlike a lot of other companies i cover and look at is at an earlier stage. they became an ad business a few years ago but they're at the

$1 billion market in the sweet spot of the hockey stick curve. how big it gets is yet to be determined but the next 12 to 18 months we got excited about this stock a few months ago i think there's a lot left as it becomes more and more important. >> in terms of the other media companies and the implications from what you saw of netflix's report, i'm curious how you see the cable unbundle taking place. there's bigger questions about where the bottom of the unbundling really is. does it slow, does it not? what do you think? >> look i just heard the head of your company speak a few weeks ago, and, you know, he clearly has a view that peacock is doing well. despite the losses, he is really very confident in peacock's future. you have david ellison taking over paramount plus.

he just hired cindy holland, one of the top executives at netflix. there's no sign that paramount plus is calling it a day and giving up. i think the reason the ellison family wants paramount is they want to build a massive streaming service and hiring cindy holland is a signal they're playing not just saying we're going to merge this in with somebody else and give up. they're going to be aggressive. where i'm going with this, andrew it doesn't appear that anybody is giving up, despite the losses, the challenges, everybody is still gunning streaming and that makes for a tough road ahead for linear tv cord cutting getting worse. espn set to go direct to consumer in 2025. while streaming is the future, the questions that investors are going to be focused on is how bad is linear television, how fast can they cut costs?

>> what's your base pace, 60, 65 million families or homes with cable these days or classic legacy cable, what does that number look like to you in 12 months, 24 months, five years, what's your number? >> you're losing, you're declining at high single digits so let's say if you were at 68 million, are you losing six plus million a year, that's sort of a reasonable base case but again, an drew, the hard part about making the forecasts is the content is getting better on streaming. you have the services on the screen right now all of those is where the great content is. name a program outside of sports you're excited about watching ol olon lin yard tv. >> right here. >> i know. >> you're saying it's a self-fulfilling prophesy. >> you're destroying the golden goose, cash cow of the industry because you have to get into

streaming. you feel the pressure, want to be there, so you make it worse. when you ask what's the bottom i used to say 40 to 45 million everything is available direct to consumer from espn to cnn, there's nothing you can't get -- the only company you can't get, are sports, fox news, the fox network, everything else is available direct to consumer and only getting worse. i think the bottom could actually be lower over time just because everything you want to see you can get without paying for this $100 plus a month bundle. >> i don't think the goose itself is golden. i think it's a goose but it lays golden eggs, you know what i'm saying? i don't think the goose itself is golden. just to be clear. it's the goose that lays the golden eggs. do you think the goose itself is golden? it's possible. it's not the expression, it's not the golden goose that lays

the golden eggs. >> i agree, joe. >> thank you. >> what are you watching on netflix, joe? >> thank you, sir, may i have another. >> i'm trying to watch that horrible perfect couple. >> i'm four episodes in. >> i think they wrote it in an afternoon and it's so campy and silly and drridiculous i'm stil watching it. did you have the same opinion? >> i like it a little bit better than that. >> better than a sharp stick in the eye? >> barely getting through it. but i got to watch something. >> the menendez thing, too. when we come back, sources say china targets the phones of former president trump and kamala harris' campaign. we'll ask theresa payton about the fallout of this .

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here's a political interference by foreign actors rising in the lead-up to the presidential election, sources telling nbc news a broad chinese hacking campaign against u.s. telecom networks targeted the phones of former president trump and his running mate, jd vance. reports said people close to vice president harris' campaign were targeted as well. joining us now is the ceo of fort alice solution. she was the white house chief information officer in george w. bush's administration, and what can you tell us, teresa, just about these latest attempts? how seriously we should take this? >> we should take it very seriously. good morning, becky. it's great to be with you. a couple of things. one is this is critical infrastructure, and although right now early reports indicate it's targeting political candidates and it is possible that they also targeted the harris campaign, which would be in keeping with sort of china's

protocol around kind of checking in on everybody, just to see what everybody's up to. for the most part, china denies involvement. if i were in the administration, great. if you deny involvement, help us arrest the people who are doing this. there's an investigation under way. the cyber safety review board, a federal board of private sector individuals and dhs, will be investigating this incident. >> i assume it's not just china that we have to worry about, and i assume this isn't new tricks. i guess most of our foreign adversaries have been wanting to do this for a while. has it gotten much easier to do that because of the advancements we've seen in technology? >> you're spot on there. china, north korea, iran, russia, and other kind of the next tier of nation state players, are definitely targeting all different parts of critical infrastructure, and it's not just about elections. it's about economic espionage,

not just political espionage, but in this particular case, it could be that the spying isn't just for, you know, trying to create misinformation, disinformation campaigns. it could be trying to look at who's going to be more favorable or less favorable in different types of economic and trade policies. both campaigns have been very vocal about what their trade policies would be with different countries, but they want to get more granular detail. which products? which verticals? what are the targets going to look like? what do tariffs look like? it could be the spying isn't just about doing different types of political espionage campaign but really understanding from an economic espionage, what are we going to be dealing with based on who wins? >> they are not keeping this secret. they're pretty loud, all the candidates, about what they're doing. how do we protect ourselves? >> a couple of things that i want people to take away from this, whether you're thinking about this for the business that you work for or in your personal

life. a couple things to think of. one, when it comes to separating the most important private parts of your life, your banking transactions, your health care insurance, make sure that your phone number that you use, that you're not using that on social media. you can give burner phone numbers such as google voice and attach that to your social media accounts. think the same thing about email accounts. don't use your work email on social media. if that work email happens to be tied to due diligence on mergers and acquisitions, things like intellectual property or even the bank account and wire transfers. have different types of layers of protection there. also, be very wary of the links that you may receive. they may be incredibly convincing. it could actually be your telecom company, somebody pretending to be them, saying you were involved in the latest hack, because criminals read the news just like we do, and they could use that for social engineering campaigns, so be

very extra cautious about clicking on links and responding to emails and text messages. >> yeah. i will say, i've gotten things even from x recently saying, click this link to verify it's really you before we shut your account off. i haven't listened to it, and they haven't shut my account off, so my guess is there's a lot of these thing out there. theresa, thank you very much for joining us. >> thanks for having me. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪♪ [inner monologue] this is going to sound crazy. but i know these attack vectors. oh, had a little upgrade have we? ♪♪ okay, so that's how you want to play. ♪♪

business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

and welcome back too "squawk box." i'm dom in thinic chu. boeing down roughly 2% after it launched an offering of common stock and mandatory preferred stock. the total capital race could be worth around $19 billion in current market conditions so keep an eye on boeing. shares of robinhood climbing almost 3% after announcing it will allow users to write contracts on the presidential election. keep an eye on those stocks. joy, back over to you guys. final check on the markets

this morning, which have been solid the entire morning session, up triple digits on the dow and the nasdaq, as you can see, up about 160 points on the dow, andon the nasdaq, we looked at the ten-year much today? >> it was -- the two-year was at the highest level since august 15th. 4.10%. >> still some -- i don't know. uneasy. the bond market seems uneasy. join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and jim cramer. futures are solid as we kick off the busiest week of earnings season. big week of macro data. oil is on pace for its biggest loss of the year. our road map begins with a big week for big tech. alphabet, apple, met