solid the entire morning session, up triple digits on the dow and the nasdaq, as you can see, up about 160 points on the dow, andon the nasdaq, we looked at the ten-year much today? >> it was -- the two-year was at the highest level since august 15th. 4.10%. >> still some -- i don't know. uneasy. the bond market seems uneasy. join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and jim cramer. futures are solid as we kick off the busiest week of earnings season. big week of macro data. oil is on pace for its biggest loss of the year. our road map begins with a big week for big tech. alphabet, apple, meta among the

headliners. boeing shares are slightly in the red ahead of the open, big effort to shore up the company's finances. it launches a stock offering and convertible offering, could raise as much as $19 billion or even perhaps a bit more. mcdonald's shares on the move this morning, bringing back its quarter pounder burger following that fast food chain's recent e. coli outbreak. let's begin with the busy week for the markets and the in that case, which is in the midst of a seven-week win streak, jim, and i know you're watching some of these mag seven names this morning. >> they're just ramping. i found one piece, a rosenblatt piece, which says that alphabet is going to do okay. meta models -- you can't model amazon. that's the whole point of amazon. it can't be modeled. there's this drift-up and i'm beginning to think that if you get -- this is counterintuitive, by the way -- if rates go lower, then these go higher, and yet they're the least sensitive to

rates because they have nation-state-like balance sheets. >> but meanwhile, i mean, rates -- the ten-year is higher than it was after the last meeting, correct? >> well, yeah. oh, no, absolutely. i'm talking about overnight. >> you're talking on -- wait, what? >> overnight interest rates -- >> you're talking about the short end. >> the idea that these are related to interest rates is kind of fatuous. >> maybe they're just running up into earnings. >> we need to have some spur. they don't just wake up -- the al algos don't just wake and say, hm, the commanders won, let's go buy meta. there's some sense to it. >> there's something they're look at. maybe it's related to oil prices. i don't know what these things are connected to. you've got literal rocket scientists who write these algorithms, but all the firms who -- >> they're like boeing rocket scientists, not like musk rocket scientists. >> really, why?

>> they can't shoot straight. i don't know. this stuff is wrong. i don't want these stocks -- my travel trust owns these. we have almost all of them. i don't want them to run, because when amazon ran last time, we found out there was weakness over the inner forecast because president trump had been -- the attempted assassination. meta, yes, i expect them to have a very, very good quarter. apple's going to have ahorrible quarter. i'm just like, hey, right now, they sold a couple of phones. you know, it's all set up -- i'm trying to do that low base thing that the really phony analysts do. >> you don't like names that run into the print hot. >> no, because then you get a honeywell and i hate it. that ran up big, and then take a look at what happened. it got pancaked. it got denny'ed. >> wolf downgrades -- >> it's just insult to injury. >> increasing risk of revision.

>> it was just terrible. cowboy-like. >> what is your best theory for some of this mag seven strength? >> i just think that people in the end gravitate to what works. there were enough corporate -- enough industrials that didn't do a great job last week. people gravitate back to these stocks. other than meta, i don't have the level of conviction of any of these. >> maybe it has something to do with cevita at b of a pushing back on kostin's ten-year suppressed return theory. >> at all times, i find that when you see the ten-year being at 4.2%, it's 4.2% going to 4.5%. >> it's going up? >> yeah, but like, in the end, there's a lot of fretting. there's a lot of hand-wringing, and fine, because these things did well when interest rates were at 6%. >> they're not necessarily the interest rate sensitive group. >> they're the least interest rate sensitive. i'm going against the algos.

i'm saying the algos make no sense. maybe people were very excited to come in. >> maybe they know connections that you have no conception . >> that's not possible. >> the machine learning going on is perhaps in excess of your prodigious brain. >> blackwell hasn't caught up to me. maybe the next iteration, which is reuben from philadelphia. i think i was related to him. >> as long as we're throwing darts at the wall, this yen weakness on this inability to get a majority. >> that's positive, because that's the opposite of the yen carry trade. i guess i -- >> you guys want to explain that to our viewers just a little bit? >> so, unable to get a majority in japan makes it harder to get fiscal monetary policy, would make it harder to adjust raites and then -- yeah. >> in the end, i'm unwilling to make up an answer of why these are up. >> good. let's just move on. >> it's fatuous. >> let's get to boeing, because that's more interesting and we can talk about some things that

are more factually based. >> people at home want to know why these stocks are up. >> i know, but we're not really helping them by saying we don't know. >> i think we're helping them by saying, look out. >> you want to get deep into the bowels of millennium and citadel and figure out what they got going on there? >> deep in the bowels? there's a good image. i'm just saying that amazon ran up last time and it was a big mistake. i'm trying to warn people, don't buy it because everyone's buying it. let's talk about something substantive because my value doesn't work, even though it's completely right. >> that's correct. >> thank you. >> that was the first right thing you've said all morning. >> take on boeing, david. >> company is launching, of course, various offerings. $19 billion -- 90 million common, also 5 billion in depository shares. all of this comes as the strike continues, and so many other issues that the company's been grappling with for months, if

not many years. the astronauts, at least, did come back. they got back. but not on a boeing. not on starline. there's a look at what's happening. >> you're buying this ahead of the union vote? >> yes. let me give you color from a couple of desks from the buy side here as well. we're hearing it from the underwriters. reverse increase, over 500 reverse increase came in over the weekend. more than 500 accounts were wall crossed. you got $30 billion in orders already. long onlies for the mostly making up -- most of the book, as you might expect, for the common offering. the convertible is going to go solely, i'm told, the mandatory preferred will go to dedicated credit funds. ortberg is going to be having some calls, one-on-one calls, during the course of this day with those who put in for large orders, and generally, this

stock is holding up pretty well for this amount of stock and this amount of dilution. jim, it's more than had even been potentially anticipated, but when you go, you might as well go once. the worst thing would be to have to come back. >> this is what -- this was right. we advised people to buy it if they can get it on the deal, come in deep in the hole, and then these different long-only funds will pay off in the aftermarket. people want -- there's a duopoly. they know if they get the money, they stay solvent. if they don't get the money, they're not. it's pretty binary. you got to buy it on the deal. buy it and put it away. you have to. the union will cave in the end >> they've also got enough money to make it through many more weeks of the strike without there being great concern, so perhaps it even gives them a little bit of leverage. that said, i think the expectation or hope is that they will get this thing resolved soon. >> the demand is unbelievable. they'll get it resolved.

ortberg will figure it out. by the way, they floated -- there were lots of stories that floated about how ortberg is going to get out of the space system, which has been a -- >> you're referring to some headlines that crossed on friday. >> i spoke to kelly, and he denied it point-blank. he said the stories weren't accurate. >> he said that to you? >> he said it to me, because i did reporting. i spoke to him. >> right. >> but it didn't matter, because the people who reported those stories will not retract them because that's the new way things go. they wouldn't retract jensen huang getting the justice subpoena, even though i had that story. it didn't matter. what do i have to do? do i have to call someone at the "journal" and say, look, your story -- i don't know. i know that ortberg's not going to -- >> so, this "journal" story, saying they're exploring the sale of the space business -- >> he denied it to me.

>> he denied that they were exploring or that would actually happen. >> he denied they were exploring, he said, it's not happening, jim. i had urged him to get rid of it, and he said, jim, it's not happening. i said, the well, the stories are wrong? he said, yeah, you can say that the stories are wrong. >> well, we'll see what happens with the strike. there's some stories on the tape this morning about the strike now impacting some suppliers, and we'll keep our eyes open. by the way, we're getting a jobs number on friday, and going along is going to subtract 33,000. >> honeywell is being hurt by the lack of orders, which is interesting. but that may be just -- it could be ineptitude. that's harsh, isn't it? it could be they got a bad hand at honeywell, but yeah, honeywell is target to get hurt by it. >> the data will be noisy between the strikes and obviously hurricanes. i think goldman's at 95,000. morgan stanley, 75,000. >> that's up for 25 basis points

that's undeserved, i think, because employment is still pretty strong. >> as for boeing, listen, selling $14 billion worth of stock on a $95 billion market cap is definitely going to dilute. >> it doesn't matter. >> you had -- by the way, there's also -- you had people who were short the stock who were expecting to cover with the offering. but the question now is whether they will actually be able to or they're going to have to go into the open market. hence, you may even see, perhaps, a bit of a surge or this may be a reflection of the expectation that those who are short are going to have to go into the open market to buy to recover it. >> let's say they price it at $150. all those institutions you mention, they get cut back. they each get a tenth of what they want, they come in and buy the rest. the stock finishes at one of the great bargains ever. no new company came in to disrupt the duopoly. >> right. >> you agree with me? >> yeah, there's only two. the chinese are trying. >> chinese are trying to do everything. >> they got something. >> what are the chinese trying

to do? colgate is unassailable. they hurt colgate. >> see the profits? >> they're like us in '74. good luck. when we come back, trump media shares surging again after the former president's rally at madison square garden over the weekend. we'll get more on that event, including what elon musk told the crowd. tons of news on the airlines. we'll get to delta, mcdonald's, hood, on. we'll let jim gloat about the eagles when we come back. they respond to emails with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours.

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shares of truth social parent trump media up sharply in the premarket here following friday's 11% surge. yesterday, the former president hosted a campaign rally at new york's madison square garden where some of the speakers delivered hateful messages. as far as budget messaging is concerned, elon musk did address the crowd and made the case for $2 trillion in government spending cuts, jim. of course, we always make note

that congress will have something to say about that, we think. >> yeah. i mean, when he was talking, like many of the things that are happening in the campaign, on both sides, there's this notion that the president can control everything. i mean, for instance, in pennsylvania, you saw a huge number of signs where i was this weekend, and in the so-called battleground county of all time, which is bucks, and they presume the presidents have super powers. if you vote for trump, you'll pay no taxes. if you vote for kamala, you'll be broke. well, if you vote for trump, he favors huge sales tax. i mean, it doesn't matter. but musk has come with a new rap, and david, you know him. and the rap is that if you vote for trump, you actually have a budget deficit that's solved, even though we have not seen anything that says that it won't be worse if you vote for trump. >> that is correct. the nonaffiliated economists who have weighed in here have at least tried to crunch the

numbers on all of the potential tax cuts under a new trump administration, and it seems that the budget deficits generated over a ten-year period would be between 7.5 to $15 trillion if i remember correctly from those stories, which is, by the way, far in excess, though, to be fair, vice president harris's budget would also generate deficits and obviously we continue to generate deficits. trump yesterday, in the rally, reiterating his tax cuts on social security wages or not -- no paying taxes on that. tips. car loans. he added another one. dependent care. it was unclear to me. >> on rogan, he talked about no income tax whatsoever. >> what also is interesting is musk's $2 trillion number. when you look at the u.s. budget as it currently is constructed, roughly 65% goes to so-called nondiscretionary, which is our -- >> social security. >> social security, medicare,

medicaid. the tre rest -- so, do $7 trillion, somewhere around there, you can do the percentage numbers. that leaves you not much more than $2 trillion. >> he's either cutting military back, or he's actually trying to do something radical with the deficit, with interest rates. >> our interest costs now are almost a trillion dollars. >> would he crunch high debt? >> are we really having a serious conversation about this? >> are they having a serious conversation? our conversation is as fanciful as their conversation. >> the other interesting thing i thought was former president's comments about robert f. kennedy jr. and his stance on ostensibly all things health. would you be selling mrna or biogen or biotech etfs? >> no, because in the end, if you have something that can triumph over -- the personalized

cancer vaccines, if they figure it out, would be something. >> is that chart reflecting presidential -- >> that's reflecting the ultter failure of everything that bancel said he would do with the excess money from pfizer, because he hasn't been able to develop the personalized cancer vaccine. >> not pfizer. from covid. >> guess what else is going to be faced with this? >> albert bourla, who's dealing with an activist, who i talked to last week, although not completely clear exactly what he wants, jeff smith at pfizer. >> moderna's problem has to do with execution. pfizer's problem has to do with execution. the government's problem has to do with execution. what? >> nothing. i mean, we'll be talking about these numbers for quite some time. >> especially because it will be a contested election. do you intend to stay right here for the next seven weeks? carl will be doing night coverage, which will then extend to -- can they push that back

and go to the march inauguration? >> maybe we'll have elon musk become king and that will take care of it. >> it would make sense in this oligarch era we're now in. >> he's the richest man in the world, he should be the king. why not? >> is the king ceremonial or does the king have powers? >> it's unclear to me. >> what do you think the king's speech would be like? >> show got weird there for a second. more "squawk on the street" in a minute. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer.

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let's get to the first "mad dash" of the week, seven minutes before we get started with trading as well to begin the week right here at the new york stock exchange. home depot, the subject of today's "mad dash." >> i know the beginning of our hour was amorphous because i could only find meta being an upside surprise. the rest, amazon retail, probably not good. apple, the launch isn't any good. microsoft, marc benioff takes a shot at copilot. i wanted to have something that was not controversial. >> okay. >> it's home depot. cowen has a piece saying, well positioned for the next cycle. they upgrade their price target, but look at secular gains here. aging housing, okay?

that makes sense. favorable demographic. new home shortage. and record home equity available. see there? that's what i call substance. >> yes. >> that's a substantive secular growth case, x-storm. >> look at this. another year, 45% gain in the stock. >> i'm glad you pointed that out. >> it's incredible. >> consistency. >> it's incredible. by the way, i mean, the numbers may have changed, certainly, because of nvidia, but from ipo price, it is right up there as the greatest single performer of all time. >> there were two bumps. there was the beginning, and then there was the -- when they opened in elmont, long island, so when people said, oh my god, it's in new york, this store is the greatest. and that would have been in 1988. so, you see a stock that has had just a remarkable run, and you say to yourself, i'll buy that. they've got a good story. i'm not going to buy microsoft. >> that's nice, but the -- since

ipo is absolutely stunning. we have had a chart on it in the past. ken will give you the numbers. >> just go long-term and don't let yours get shaken out. think about what's -- this company's been going through, and all it does is go higher. i bet if we put up the chart of mcdonald's, we might see something very similar. that's another one that's been amazing. >> this has been one of the greatest of all time. there it is. there's -- there it is. >> yeah. >> there it is. >> now, this is what happens -- >> look at that number. >> -- if you own the stock and don't listen. >> that number is 1,145,199%. >> this is when you choose not to be shaken out by federal reserve chairmen, by elections, by deficits. this is what you get. oh no, in, out, in, out. buy, sell, buy, sell, and why not get some capital gains while you're at it? >> 43 years is a long time to hold it. >> we have to go, but this was a

great learning lesson for people, versus in and out, in and out. that's always really helpful, right? >> all right. we got an opening bell just less than five minutes away. by the way, you can always catch us any time and anywhere by listening to and following the "squawk on the street: opening bellpoas " dct.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. crude oil is down sharply this morning. israel says it avoided targeting iran's refineries in its retaliatory strike against that country over the weekend, jim. this is on pace today for the worst session in a couple of years. >> it's interesting because what happened is there's two sets of stories. one is that they didn't hit what -- really, what our nation urged them not to hit. but second, there was a complete breakdown of the russian defense system, which basically said, okay, listen, we're at will. we'll do whatever we have to, because you didn't shoot any of us down. now, the russian system is supposed to be able to do that. so, it looked like a triumph of the -- at least when it comes to

the war by israel that made a lot of people think, wait a second, is iran vulnerable? >> and then, some headlines, raising the prospect of a regional deal. >> if they're vulnerable, then theoretically, they should come to the table, and then oil's too high. >> let's get the opening bell. truckload shipping company covenant logistics celebrating a recent transfer to the nyse from the nasdaq. at the nasdaq, the american bankers association, celebrating its annual convention. jim, nice breadth here. tying into oil is some pretty positive commentary around the airlines today. >> yeah, look, i think that american was actually better than i thought. united, very good, and then what would delta be without a lawsuit against crowdstrike? i had spoken to george kurtz many, many times about this, and he said, look, it's going to happen.

there's a tremendous animus. those guys are not buddies, so to speak, but it is worth it to remember that george called them repeatedly -- george kurtz, the ceo of crowdstrike -- that microsoft reached out to try to get things done, and the only customer that did not accept, take the call, or willing to work with microsoft and with crowdstrike over this glitch was delta. so, i don't know how great delta's case is. the only company that chose not to -- you know, george is on a 130 in 100-day charm tour, and i get the sense that no one has pulled out. delta even continued to use them. it's hard to, you know, necessarily get out of it, but i don't like delta's hand here. >> no. but you've been a supporter of crowdstrike from the day this happened. >> well, i have been, and the stock bottomed at $230, it's come all the way back. george kurtz is revered among the jamie dimons of the world, marc benioff, the people who just said, okay, look, what do

we need to do to help? let the stock come in, because people may not understand and think that maybe delta has a stronger hand than they do. i don't like delta's hand. i think there was a lot of things you could have done to help the situation, and they chose not to help the situation. i think it's important. >> one last thing, melius does upgrade alaska today. td cowen saying some of these airlines could eventually have a double. >> i've not liked the airlines for a long time. but they've also never shown the discipline that they showed where they came on air, and they told phil lebeau, look, we're going pull out capacity. a lot of people laughed because they've always claimed they were going to do that. david, they did it, and it's working. they have extremely full flights. you pay more. what a win. >> yeah. it's hard to take a flight these days where it's not full. that's been the case for quite some time. not just the covid period being excluded. >> you would think with the extremely full flight thing,

they would start adding flights, and they haven't. the breadth is great. american is actually finally above where it was during the covid period. odd. but united's really making a move, and you know, the buyback -- >> the buyback where? >> united has a good buyback. >> yeah. >> i think it's really interesting. they're sitting there buying back -- what's it, like, $1.5 billion? it's relentless since the quarter was reported. i'm not a believer, but who would believe? david, you never -- i never got your -- the denouement of southwest, what you thought was happening there. >> we talked about it, of course, when elliott -- we had george on the show. >> they're being disciplined too. >> the changes in execution that are going to take a little time, though, aren't they? >> but i think they're going to get out of bad routes, go into good routes, probably they can charge more. >> the thing about southwest gets me to this broader idea of

culture. and i just think it's interesting, because when we talked to ortberg last week or phil lebeau brought him on, he talked culture. to a certain extent, brian niccol is talking, at starbucks, culture. you know, it's not an easy thing to measure, nor is it easy to necessarily measure the impact of culture on performance. >> by the way, remember, nike. >> and nike. that's right. another potential turnaround. i don't really -- other than just focusing on them because they're all in the news, these ceos are tasked with this idea of bringing the culture back, and that's going to bring everything else in line. >> well, look at -- >> reinvigorating the culture, i should say. >> if you go read ken langone's book, written, by the way, in conjunction with james kaplan. >> the one -- "why i love capitalism"? >> home depot had a broken

culture under nardelli, and there's this tremendous scene in the book where langone's and bernie marcus had to go fire nardelli and the reason why they fired him is because the culture is broken. so, in a very short time, they fixed the culture, and it was one of the great fixes of culture because look how the stock did even though it had a broken culture. in the book, there's this amazing scene where they go up to fire nardelli -- oh my god, the book is so good. the book is so well written. first, langone's goes up and nardelli tells him, i'm not going to use the words because i'm cognizant this is a family show, and he comes back to marcus and says, you go up. he scares me. langone's is not easily scared. and then they kind of tag team and get rid of him. i urge david to read this book. it will take you like three hours. >> i have it. >> having it is not the same as reading it. >> i've read many of the books i do have. >> that's incredible and i'm so

glad. >> i'm glad you're letting ken know i haven't read that. >> did you ever read "anna karenina", or w"war and peace"? >> i did read "the brothers karimozov." >> is the best memoir, "shoe dog"? >> well, i thought you read lango langone's book. >> it's not quite the same. he became the ceo of nike. >> that was not a direct-to-consumer. that was a running shoe. >> back to my point and boeing, by the way, which we spent the morning talking about, ortberg is talking about bringing back the culture of safety, of execution in terms of manufacturing, of being the best. >> you're saying it didn't have the culture of safety? >> i don't know when the culture went bad. and whether it really is the key thing. >> well, between -- >> i think it's a more difficult

thing to measure -- >> is it mullberg? >> no, muilenburg, that was not good. that was bad. >> he's spot on today, isn't he? makes fun of my amazon thing, reaches on -- >> not going to get over that, are you? >> -- an incredible conclusion that muilenburg wasn't good. i was trying to get people to realize, don't buy the stocks. >> let's talk about another mover. on semi came into the session looking like it was going to be higher, about a $30 billion market cap. you know, i'm looking at a lot of quick sampling here. good enough, seems better than shorts feared, 45% gross margin seems like a positive. all that. then, it it turned around. now it's already kind of coming back a bit, but it had been down as much as 5%. the conference call. and here's what we have to share from it. it seemed to give some investors

pause. the company's president said, "we don't expect meaningful market growth as third-party reports would suggest," meaning third-party reports are suggesting meaningful market growth. they're not seeing it. "we expect our silicon carbide revenue to be in the low to mid-single-digit growth and on the technology development front, they say they have qualified for a 200 meter silicon carbide ahead of schedule, 8-inch wafers running in the fab. yields to those are equivalent to the 6-inch wafers but the key moment and sentence seemed to be when the president said, we don't expect meaningful market growth for their end markets. >> which shocked me. >> turned the stock around, but you can see, i only mention it because it hadn't been up 5%, and then it turned down. >> i think that anyone who expected their largest markets, auto -- anyone who expected auto to grow, and maybe we'll hear

from ford tonight, i don't know how much they're going to miss or make by, but i don't hear market growth in the auto business, so they've always tried to do a little better than that, but that'sthe, i imagine, the reason why they don't have that growth. they're a very good company, by the way. but they're analog. texas instruments had a good quarter, and i would think therefore it would be a very similar quarter. texas instruments' quarter was unheralded. >> is this better than texas? >> no, texas had a really good quarter. >> high teens multiple is what you're talking about here for on semi. >> isn't that interesting, carl? stocks that aren't that expensive. but remember, you go back to why we want mag seven? well, because of its consistency. you have on up two and then they start talking about the -- can you imagine if alphabet said, you know what? we don't expect meaningful growth in our market. that stock would lose 30% of its market cap. >> well, we did have nvidia eclipse apple as the world's

most valuable company on friday. interesting piece on alphabet today, jim, looking at this a.i. tool that basically takes over a web browser so you can shop and do research through the a.i. tool. >> that would be absolutely fantastic if they could do it. right now, you can see that when you do a google search, it kind of -- it's pseudo-gemini, but if this would drive you to place where you buy, that has always been the reason i was worried about amazon is that i felt one day, alphabet could do that. if alphabet were to break out waymo and get it out of that other stupid area, that could be very positive. although, musk is relentless in saying that waymo is ugly and i think that's because it's got the thing -- when you hail a waymo, it looks like you're hailing a helicopter. >> you don't do this to hail a waymo, by the way. >> well, i have the waymo app. it's 30% less. >> there's no whistle? >> no, it doesn't do that. >> actually, those were the good

old days. >> it's a jaguar, but it doesn't look like -- >> jaguar. >> that's how they pronounce it. i pronounce it jaguar. >> me too. jagiar. >> you mentioned cars. vw is closing some factories in germany, cutting pay by 10%, mand mandatory layoffs. >> if they close or cut back that pueblo plant, that's when you know you're in trouble. if trump wins, i would imagine that that plant gets scaled back dramatically. he really wants to cut back the cars from mexico. >> on tesla, toni sacconaghi is out today, said the market beat was due to commodity contract renewals. we learned on saturday, "the washington post" reporting that musk did begin his career in this country illegally. >> well, that's you, david. you have to know. >> that's me? you want me to comment on this? >> because while i'm looking for the tesla piece that's the exact

opposite, saying things are fantastic at tesla and raising numbers a bit. that was another. >> well, stock went up 22%. so, that's really, i guess, that says it. >> i wouldn't buy the stock still. >> you would? >> look at the way the stock acted on friday. it was up really huge, and of course there was profit taking and then it came right back. i don't want to go against this stock. this stock -- that -- that conference call was one of the best conference calls. it was his best, clearly. i love that they didn't -- oh, time for one call, an analyst, mostly rank and file, but the quarter was -- the discussion about what this company is going to be doing in battery, in full, you know, full self-driving is fantastic. saying they're way ahead of waymo. maybe the approval from california soon. >> they're not ahead of waymo in terms of people actually taking rides in a robo taxi. >> 100,000 a week. no, they're not. >> waymo is doing a hundred thousand a week. tesla is not. >> no, tesla's not doing

anything. >> right. >> but this is musk we're talking about. >> it's musk. >> how about the fact that chevron pulled out of california? changing the headquarters to texas and closed those two refineries. >> now you got governor newsom trying to get some film production back. maybe there's a regulatory turn in california. >> i think that newsom did not attempt to even keep chevron. >> there is something to be said for trying to generate revenues in your state and city by saying to business, we are friendly towards you. >> what are you saying? >> i'm just saying that can be a smart policy. >> because newsom has not adopted that policy. >> no, and here in our own wonderful city, we chased amazon away. yeah. >> where'd they go, turkey? >> they went to tennessee, i think. >> i didn't know. >> or virginia, actually. northern virginia. >> oh, there you go, back to that queens thing again? >> i am. it was a turning point for me. >> jamie dimon is from queens.

why doesn't he just buy queens? >> carl icahn is from queens. simon and garfunkel are from queens. >> barbra streisand is from brooklyn. >> louis armstrong lived in queens for a long time. >> his house is still there. >> yeah. >> my wife's from queens. so what? >> so's your partner right here. >> you too? i had -- well, never mind. it's been sdiscussed in another situation. i don't know what we can end on here. >> how about mcdonald's? they did rule out beef as a food safety threat. the quarter pounder will now be back in all states that stopped selling it, and it's those raw slivered onions where they're no longer sourcing from that supplier, will only not be available in the 900 locations that received them from that facility in colorado springs. >> and they report, and i think the quarter is going to be very good. i do think that they're putting out all these stories this

weekend about how, listen, it's not the beef. they were telling you -- well, they were telling you, if you did some reporting, that it was the onions, and the difficulty was there's never really been a real link between e. coli and onions before. it's always been beef. it's hard to find e. coli from sliced onions, so no wonder they were thrown off. right? >> uh-huh. uh-huh. >> notice nvidia was up $1.80 and now it's like barely up? what is that? now it's down. >> what do you make of that? >> taiwan semi is down very big. i make as much of that about i make about the fact that alphabet was up big. nvidia's problematic here, because the -- it doesn't report this week, so it can't speak for itself. >> it's the 21st, i believe. although, we -- last week, jim, that jpmorgan desk note looking at sk and taiwan semi and arguing it does set up nvidia for a nice print.

>> i think nvidia is going to have a big number. i also thought there was much more to jensen huang's fireside chat in india. when you look at what he was talking about, it was pretty positive. but right now, it doesn't have the catalyst that the others have, but there are -- i have hpe on this week. hewlett packard enterprises. >> oh, you have antonio. >> his story is about how he works so well with nvidia. nvidia needs help to get in. so -- but anyway, right now, nvidia doesn't have a catalyst, so -- >> no, other than jensen is everywhere all the time all at once. >> he's amazing. >> he's -- is there any podcast he hasn't been on yet? >> was he on joe rogan? >> i don't know. has he not been on joe roeng? >> maybe. >> i don't know. >> the kelces? jason kelce? >> they have a podcast, right? >> top-rated. >> he hasn't been on with them either?

>> i drink campbell's soup because of jason kelce. >> you're easily influenced. >> of course. i'm just -- you know, whatever i see last, i buy. >> that's true. whatever thought in your head was last is what you tell us. >> touche. >> queens. philadelphia. there it is right there, right? mets beat phillies. nice opening gain here. dow is up 300. every sector is green except for energy, which we mentioned earlier. s&p, though, back to 5,835 or so. watch bonds. not a lot of data today, but it definitely is going to heat up tomorrow with j.o.l.t.s. wednesday, gdp. thursday, pce, and of course, jobs friday. back in a minute.

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we were mentioning restaurants earlier. a top pick despite the double over the last 12 months. valuations still highly attractive relative to peers. especially of our earnings revision piece unfolds. they talk about loyalty. you can just add a few more transactions a day. >> i talked about having rob lynch on today. boy, he's an operator. e e beope open -- he was from papa john's and he was crushing it. really good story. >> stock trading with jim up next.

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stay connected with comcast business internet and wifi back-up or get started for $49.99 a month. plus ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. call today! let's get to jim and stock trading. >> one of the great consumer product stories of this era has been colgate. a straight up stock. they reported a number on friday where they're actually some congratulations for the quarter, even though they had a little market compression in america. i think this is a buy. this is a company that lost a little share of toothpaste, but china was the issue, and carl, after a while, we're going to wish webought everything that had a problem in china. no matter who you talk about, whether it be nike, colgate, china is a black hole. but one day we'll say, you know

what, x china, not unlike what we do now with argentina, believe it or not, because china is going to be bad for a long time. >> we'll get to a point where we can ignore it? >> oh, yeah, it was china, because you can't constantly sell things on china. yeah, okay, you have china. i mean, apple will be the only place that has anything good to say about china, but yeah, what are they not brushing their teeth? they're using a cheaper toothpaste. no stimulus that matters other than the manipulation of stocks. that's what they have done best. i'm critical. >> yes, and have been for a long time. >> well, because again, they're like, we can make them our central issue or we can start focusing on india. they both have 1.4 billion people, but one is going to 1.3, and one is going to 1.8. i want to go to the one that has growth. >> how about tonight? >> i have hp, which has remarkable story. this is when you get an nvidia chip, when you have the gpus,

you can't do it yourself. you need someone to integrate. dell integrates. i misjudged how well hpe is working with nvidia. he has a great story. very inexpensive stock. >> we had him on the other day talking about cooling technologies. >> the liquid cooling is a kinner. you have him on the other day? >> it's been long enough. >> all about cooling. liquid cooling. >> i told you, man, data centers in space. >> you remember when langone -- i forgot, he hasn't read the book, but he does have it, which is better than not having it. >> i have the book. i love capitalism. >> i don't know, i'm so cruised to reading a book, but i'm so old fashioned. i can just chatgpt it. >> i don't read any books. >> i chatgpt your books. >> i have written a couple books. so have you, by the way.

the best was the first. >> the last six were bad. thank you very much. >> the first one was good. >> that was the one where everyone said don't write it because you'll look like a maniac, horrible person. 100% true. >> jim, we'll see you tonight. "mad money," 6:00 p.m.asrn ete time. nice opening gain, dow up 310. russell up almost 1.5%. stay with us. they need a retir. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked injections. dehydratech processing of a glp-1 drug demonstrated improved blood sugar reduction and reduced side effects. study results are arriving monthly and lexaria has entered a new relationship within the global pharmaceutical industry. lexaria bioscience, transforming the future of glp-1 drug delivery.

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good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber. deirdre bosa is with us. nice opening gain. dow up almost 300. got outsized gains in some of the small caps. treasury is a bit elevated ahead of a lot of mark row this week. ten-year gets to 4.29 this morning. energy, of course, 67.14, the

low print on the morning on pace for the worst session in about two ears. >> we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are some of the movers we're watching. keep an eye on the airlines and the cruise liners gaining after the big plunge in oil prices. boeing launching a $19 billion capital raise to shore up its finances as the company's worker strike continues. more on what it means for investors later, and robinhood in the green after announcing plans to jump into election trading. users are now able to buy harris or trump contracts starting today. as long as they meet certain criteria like being a u.s. citizen. much more on the state of the race with just eight days to go now later this hour. >> it's great to have you on the desk today, dee. you came armed with a lot of insight concerning the mag seven ear earnings. >> five of them this week. what strikes me always when we get to this time of the year, four times a year, is just how much exposure to so many different themes. you have ai, streaming, you have

autonomous vehicles. you have advertising. and the growth rates. even though we have seen the raid dry up a little bit recently, it's hard to argue with the eps growth and the double digits for a view of them, even single digit is better than about 3.6% gain for the 493 others. >> yeah. i always come back to the numbers themselves because they are just so stunning in terms of the size of these companies at this point. we certainly will be adding up how much they're spending on capex because it's such an important component overall and the numbers are going to be in the hundreds of billions. certainly for the year. and we're going to keep tracking it. we'll hear what the companies have to say on their respective conference calls about their plans as to whether to maintain or increase. >> if you remember back to last quarter, spooked investors a little bit when alphabet's ceo says things like they can't be spending enough. investors increasingly want to see the follow through of that, the gains from all of this ai spending. >> here to break some of that

down, what he calls the three key market debates going into the end of the year, senior markets commentator mike santoli. >> the key one initially anyway is looking at what's happening in the bond market and the why of the rise in yields. most of that seems to be tracking the better than expected performance of the u.s. economy. but it fits into one of the second debates or the second of the three i'm going to mention which is to what degree the market in its recent run in terms of cyclical leadership, banks working, small caps coming off the mat and the yields going up are pricing in an election scenario and whether that's a reliable indicator of what the policy swing is going to mean. i think i would point to the 2016 and 2020 elections, they had massive rallies after the election outcomes. that was a trump win and a trump loss. and the difference perhaps now is in 2016, the market really wanted policies that were going to wake up and underperforming economy, low inflation, low growth, high nominal gdp

policies were what the market craved. not clear that's where we are now. we are coming off a high growth, high inflation scenario. in 2020, what the market was betting on was massive fiscal response. also, not really what we want right now. i think there's an interesting question as to how the market metabolizes whatever does happen next week and then beyond that, whatever this tension release that might come just because the election is past is whether we should start to be paring back our expectations of what the market is deliver in returns. that debate was crystallized with goldman sachs talking about an expensive concentrated market. who knows if that's right, but it sort of gets at this idea that the market is more expensive than it was and it builds in a lot of good stuff. we have a very low initial dividend yield as well. >> you mentioned the inflation picture. a lot different in 2016. how much of rising bond yields do you think are some of those

renewed worries assee see both presidential candidates with policies that could reinflate? >> it's interesting. so hard to tease out exactly the elements of what istri driving , but inflation indications have picked up. they're pricing out that continued disinflation we were in for a while. i think most of the rise in yields can be explained by that growth scare we got starting in early august, essentially proving to be a false one. and essentially we're now at the point, okay, soft landing again. that might mean disinflation doesn't happen at as rapid a pace. but it's interesting what happened this year. bond yields and stock yields went up because the economy was doing better than expected. when the bond yield moved the market took a step back. i don't know if we're at that moment where furtherizing yields is going to destabilize stocks but you have to be aware.

>> we spent so much time talking about the goldman note last week. today, b of a says long term is going to be fine, 4% to 5% for the average stock. >> look, the goldman note was a scenario that was like zero to 7. it's not as if anybody thinks that's out of the question. what she really is saying is the average stock is probably going to do better than the market cap weighted s&p 500 because of how expensive the biggest stocks are. but she always says, well, if we go back to an era when 40% of your total return came from dividend yield, which used to be in the bygone days, then we get to 4 or 5%. that was because dividend yields started out higher. the price return, why do you think you're going to make up the difference with a 1.3% starting s&p 500 dividend yield. what it does say is maybe you want to emphasize dividend growth stocks, the ones that can get you out of that fix. >> mike, thanks. we'll talk in a little while. >> today does kick off a critical week for the street,

macking one week until the election. tomorrow the busiest week of earnings season. sam stovall joins us, chief investment strategist. you have been looking at earnings expectations for the quarter. you quote yogi berra, it ain't over until it's over. what's your thought about the current season? >> good point about yogi because we started the quarter s&p capital iq consensus estimates were looking for about a 3.2% rise that then dropped to about 2%, but here we are now, looking for greater than 4% increase, and it was such a very large number of companies reporting this week, i obviously would not be surprised if this ends up being the 60th out of the last 62 quarters in which the actual results exceed end of quarter estimates. >> do you think there's going to be pent-up relief post election once we do get these results? >> historically, that is the

case. that going back to 1992, which is as far back as s&p has sector level data, all sizes, styles, sectors posted advances along with 97% of the subindustry, so historically, the market does breathe a sigh of relief. and also, i think that history is going to be tweaked a bit this time around. normally, the market, if it rises from july 31 through october 31, the incumbent person or party has been re-elected except for two times. one of them was in 1968, when lbj stepped down. hubert humphrey ran for president. we had the war in vietnam as a very unpopular situation. this time around, we have got inflation and immigration. we had a fed lowering interest rates back in '68 that did not help the incumbent, and anecdotally, we also had conventions in chicago. so we'll see right now whether

the five plus percent advance this time which is equivalent to what we saw in '68 proves that the incumbent will not get re-elected. >> you're also looking at rates and think the feds is going to be slower to rlower, just two 25-point basis cuts this year? >> yes, we think the fed will be taking a moderate approach. the feeling is there's no reason to rush into this, especially when gdp is expected to be up 2.8% this year, 2.4% next year. we're not going to see that 2% threshold on core cpi until 2026. so i think the fed wants to maintain its lower trajectory, but will do so in a measured pace in case we do see inflation pick up once again. >> and sam, what are the chances of that? we were talking about this earlier, given the election is

just eight days away now, and both candidates have policies that would and could restart inflation. are you comfortable saying you don't think it's going to reaccelerate? >> i think we're not going to like to see it recelerate. maybe it could stall a bit at these upper levels. i also think a lot of what the candidates are saying are really just to get the voters' interest and whether they are able to follow through is another very big question. also, if we end up with a split congress, i think that much of what the two candidates have been promising is not something that will be fulfilled. >> yeah, we're trying to build in all those scenarios, sam. eight days away from that election. good to see you. talk soon. by the way, quick programming note as we go to break. this is a big interview that you don't want to miss on wednesday. ray dalio with sara at the fii institute's eighth annual conference in saudi arabia.

don't miss that. >> as we head to break, here's our road map for the rest of the hour. apple rolling out its latest ai features ahead of earnings later this week. what's at stake for the tech giant. >> plus, boeing announces a massive capital raise. will be using it to shore up finances. what is it going to mean for the struggling plane maker and investor snz. >> and the battle to be number one as nvidia briefly tops apple to be the biggest company in the world. a closer look at what's xt fneor nvidia and the semis as "squawk on the street" continues. >> university of maryland global campus is a school for real life, one that values the successes you've already achieved. earn up to 90 undergraduate credits for relevant experience and get the support you need from your first day to graduation day and beyond. what will your next success be?

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check out your iphone this afternoon. apple is expected to push out its latest widely anticipated apple intelligence features today. our own steve kovac here with what you can look forward to. steve, i'm guessing you're going to say curb your enthusiasm a little bit. this is a pretty slow rollout. >> very slow rollout. and we're expecting of course this apple intelligence to launch as soon as today, but with an extremely limited set of features and only for the newest iphones, max, and ipads and this launch is coming at a team when the street is struggling to figure out what iphone demand looks like. if you were hoping for siri to get smarter today, you're going to be quite disappointed. only two major features are coming. but it's just as bad as it's always been, but now when you talk to siri, the screen is going to kind of glow.

the better ai features like generating custom emojis those are several weeks away from launching and that big siri update and the integration with all of the apps on your phone is expected next year. that has not stopped apple from marketing those features to prospective iphone 16 buyers. that's all the ads talk about. if you want to summarize your emails you have to wait. in the meantime, we have gotten some sour commentary on iphone 16 demand so far. last week, the ceos of at&t and verizon say demand isn't as strong as last year and they're unsure how long it's going to take for the ai rollout to change that. meanwhile, they said apple cut iphone 16 orders by 10 million units. that's a little higher. ia might ask why has there been such a slow rollout. according to apple's soft waers boss, he told the wall street

journal apple wants to get each piece right and release it when it's ready. that hasn't stopped tim cook from hyping apple intelligence. he said it's changed my life, guys. >> it's changed his life. i mean, that's interesting. i have been playing around with a pixel phone which released some of the features and it has not changed my life so far. >> might be a little exaggeration. >> you mentioned craig fred areike who has been playing down expectations and apple typically does take that route. they don't need to be first but they want to do it best. do you think we're seeing an apple that is willing to experiment a little more these days and is that a positive signal? >> this actually quite literally is an experiment. even once all these features launch out, they're going to still be labeled as beta, meaning it's a kind of public test version that, yes, you can use it, yes, it's going to be part of the main ios upgrades you get, but again, still balta, still going to be problems with

it. that also gives apple a sort of excuse to say, if it screws up, they can say, we're still working through it. at the same time, you have to game this out. moving forward, every device that apple launches is going to be capable of these ai systems. and eventually, that means over a billion people at least on the iphone front are going to be accessing artificial intelligence from an iphone. so this is a long drawn out rollout, but what we're really waiting for is coming this thursday, we have earnings and we'll get our first indication of what iphone demand looks like. >> steve, thank you. that's where we're headed next as well because our next guest calls this the beginning of a true supercycle for apple. projects the company will be the first to hit $4 trillion in market cap in 2025. it comes ahead of earnings from apple. friday. five of the magnificent seven names are reporting ruts this week. dan ives joins us now. maintains an outperform. his price targ right now, $300,

and no surprise, you're enthusiastic about what you believe will be the beginning of a supercycle as the result of many things steve was talking about, apple will be introducing. i do wonder, were you at all concerned about verizon, their comments about lackluster demand. at&t and t-mobile, all the same, or is it really just everybody waiting for these new feature snz. >> yeah, the reason i'm not concerned andall of our checks on these we have talked about here, september, i think the september quarter is going to be better than expected in terms of an iphone perspective. nothing, no one was expecting the really inflection point quarter where i think starts to happen in december and into march, and everything we have seen from asia, i mean, i see some others that have said the opposite. i believe this is tracking that they will be over 240 million units for the year. that would be apple's biggest iphone unit year ever. so i think when it comes to ai, it's iterative, but with 18.2 we

see in the holiday season, i think this is one the street numbers have to move up another 4 or 5%. it is the beginning of a supercycle which i believe going into early next year, $4 trillion market cap, they will be the first to hit it. >> i feel like you have used supercycle before. when have you used it to describe apple and a new phone? >> i think when it comes to supercycle, if you look at maybe two years ago, that ended up being what i call a strong product cycle instead of a supercycle. part of when you have to look at apple, i view it as the install base. two years ago, 180 million given iphones. this time, 300 million. even if we're 50% right, this is a stock that i think goes much higher because services, when you look at ai, it's not just about steve talks about -- this is now going to be hundreds of

apps built on apple intelligence which is going to give 10, 15, 20 billion of incremental services value. that is the key. >> you need an iphone 15 or 16 to take advantage of all those apple intelligence powered apps. it feels like consumers were sold something at wwdc and through subsequent advertisements that they're not going to be getting still for some time. what does it mean for the current quarter if we get some of these features today that are underwhelming and doesn't encourage people to upgrade? >> to that point, it's 18.2 which we'll get before holidays that i think gives a lot of the promise that we saw at wwdc, but then ultimately it's about the march quarter. what i love about this cycle, normally it's september, december, then you start to ultimately gear up for iphone 17. here it's going to be different. you're going to have strength in december, march, and june. and i think look, i think the reason many will miss the

trillion and a half market cap move in apple is because they're so focused sort of not seeing the forest through the trees. this is a company transforming in front of us. the consumer ai revolution will go through the doors of cupertino. >> you think they're disappointed in vision pro so far? >> i think vision pro initially was much more than they ever expected, and i think for vision pro ultimately is about what vision pro looks like in two years, when it's essentially sunglasses at half the price. this is really more about developers right now, from a vision pro perspective. but this is all the start of the new era for apple. and that's why i think many investors are really underestimating the growth and where this is all -- >> if you're right and this does set off the revolution in consumer usage of generative ai, what else is it going to mean? where else are you looking in terms of the impact of that beyond apple? >> as we talked about the ai revolution, which is still call

it first, second inning, it's not just on enterprise with nvidia and microsoft. i think when you look on the consumer side, it's really now what's going to drive i believe it's going to be significant for meta. i think it's going to be significant for google. to me, i think the biggest miscalculation right now is that ai is not going to have an impact for google. i even think for meta. i don't think a lot of that is built in to where we all see this heading over the next few years. >> to that point, a now, sort of being called the ai glasses and you get that free assistant with it. so you talk about that. >> for them, they have shown success in hardware for the first time, but who will win that race is cook and cupertino in my opinion. >> dan, thank you. >> thank you. >> coming up after the break, boeing as you may know by now, announcing a big plan to raise money as the worker strike rolls on wh ditnoate yet to resume negotiations. what the capital raise means for the company and its investors in a minute.

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boeing shares are under pressure this morning, down nearly 2% on pace for their longest daily losing streak since august, if today's losses hold. phil lebeau has been tracking the action and joins us with the latest in the share sale there. phil. >> reporter: hi, deirdre. this is a capital raise that is a little larger than many people were expecting. remember, they basically got approval to go anywhere between 15 and 25 billion dollars. and most thought, oh, they'll probably do around 15 billion. the total, 18.9 billion. there's a stock sale that makes up 13.9 billion of that. then a convertible preferred share sale that's the other 5 billion. also, which we don't mention here, is there's about another 2.5 billion for over allotment, for the underwriter. you could look at something north of 21 billion. for boeing, this is all about getting as much liquidity and support for the balance sheet as it deals with a couple of issues here. the main one that they're

focused on aside from the strike, which is clearly, they want to get it resolved as quickly as possible, they want to make sure their credit rating remains industrial grade. all of the credit rating agencies have said you're in jeopardy of going to junk status if situation deteriorates. total debt at the end of the third quarter, $57.7 billion. meanwhile, in terms of the strike, they haven't got any progress to report this morning. if they're talking and they may be talking, we know machinists talked with the acting labor secretary over the weekend. we don't know of any talks that are formally scheduled. but that doesn't mean there's not some communication going on. 46 days into the strike, it's expected to cost the company at least $1 billion per month as you take a look at shares of boeing, remember the loss in the third quarter was more than $6 billion. and they're going to be losing cash in the fourth quarter. losing cash early in 2025. the question now, guys, is you put this equity raise together.

you now have the liquidity in place to deal with an extended strike, but as we know, the job number one for kelly ortberg and his team, get this strike resolved. >> phil, we mentioned on friday some of the reports of furloughs at suppliers like spirit, do those you think stay intact until we get back to the table? >> i think so. i think, and you're already starting to see this from a lot of the smaller suppliers. and it's not getting a lot of headline news because you're looking at maybe a small er tier-two supplier that has to let four or five people go. that's cumulative. when you look at spirit, clearly they're the fuselage maker. at some point, they're not going to continue employing people if they're not making the fuselages because there's not the production happening. and it's going to be lumpy. it's going to be a lumpy ramp-up in production. you can't flip the switch and say start sending us the product

immediately. we're ready to go. it may be fits and starts at least initially once they get the strike resolved. >> yeah, you know, phil, they're not going to have any trouble finding people to buy this, as i reported earlier. as much as $30 billion in demand. a lot of reverse inquiries. funds saying to goldman sachs and others who are underwriting this, we would be interested. many firms, so that's not an issue. which is a good thing. but the dilution is very significant. where are we in terms of when things get back to normal, the power ofthis company to deliver free cash flow in '25 or '26? >> second half of '25, you may see some positive free cash flow. depending on two things. one, how quickly they get the strike resolved, and two, how quickly they can move to first of all stabilize production and then start to gradually increase it. remember, 737 max production is capped at 38 per month.

kelly ortberg told us they were getting close to that point when the strike hit. theoretically, if you could stabilize, let's say through the end of this year, into the beginning of next year, if the strike gets resolved relatively quickly, and then build production. they believe they can get the free cash flow, start to generate free cash flow in the second half. carl. >> phil, huge story. thanks for helping viewers understand it better this morning. that's phil lebeau. let's get a news update with silvana. >> good morning to you. the head of the cia and the israeli spy agency mossad are meeting today in qatar to reignite gaza cease-fire negotiations. one of the options on the table is an egyptian plan that would pause fighting are two days to allow for the exchange of four israeli hostages and some palestinian prisoners. meanwhile, israeli forces withdrew today from one of northern gaza's last functioning medical facilities, claiming troops detained 100 terrorists including some that diz guised themselves as medics.

gaza's health ministry claims the troops detained hundreds of patients, medical staff, and displaced residents seeking shelter at the hospital. and the philadelphia district attorney's office sued elon musk's political action committee today over its $1 million a day giveaway. the lawsuit warns the swing state voter registration sweepstakes could violate federal law. musk has donated tens of millions of dollars so far to republican nominee donald trump's presidential campaign, david. back to you. >> thank you. still to come, the election impact on the semi-conductor industry. we'll have more on some of the key names and what the reactions may be. quick programming note as well. cnbc delivering alpha investor summit, just a couple weeks away. right here in new york city november 13th is the day. i will be moderating a panel. we're going to talk about the future of media. both those gentlemen have significant thoughts about that

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." on semi, the latest chip name to report a top and bahm line beat, but they guide lower for q4. down almost 13%. trying to rebound some of that, up 2% this morning. >> a bit of a seesaw after kind of negative comments on the conference call, at least about the end markets. just eight days to go until the election and some warning that ship companies and their stocks could take a tumble under one candidate. let's get to seema modi, find out who that is and why. >> david, former president trump reiterated his frustration with taiwan, accusing the country of stealing america's chip industry

on joe rogan's podcast over the weekend. he crit icized and said if he were to become president, tariffs were coming for taiwan's chips. he also suggested foreign companies should not be able to enter the u.s., borrow money, and build chips here. he's of course referring to taiwan semi-conductor which produces about 90% of the world's cutting edge chips. on tap to receive $6 billion from the u.s. commerce department to continue to build its arizona fab. a trump win would be bad for taiwan semi-conductor while strategists are debating how much tariffs will increase cost across the entire chip supply chain. back in july when trump made similar comments, they lost about $675 billion of market cap that week, while u.s. companies building fabs here, global foundries, intel, and texas instruments outperformed. but a harris win doesn't mean an all clear for the semi trade, according to experts we spoke to. remember, some of the harshest

export controls on china were implemented under the biden administration. that dramatically impacted how much nvidia and other chip companies were able to sell into the country, and guys, both trump and harris are expected to ramp up those very restrictions. >> a fascinating story. so many different angles of it. seema, especially, i know you saw that report last week that tsmc's arizona chip plant yielded more than its taiwanese equivalent but it's a taiwanese company. seema, thank you very much. >> we also continue to monitor the market cap battle between nvidia and apple. let's unpack the chip sector further with analyst stacey raskin. it's great to see you. nvidia doesn't report until kind ofilate-ish november. >> the 20th. >> so many signals this week. with capex from some of the mag seven. what do they need to show us to keep the nvidia party going? >> they need to show us that

demand is there and strong and ideally growing. the big concern -- there's a number of concerns when anything runs this much, but the biggest concern is sustainability. the numbers have gotten so big so quickly, you worry it can't keep going. as of right now from everything we can see, it looks like it's stit going. i get the nervousness. it clearly is not time to worry this year. i don't even think it's time to worry next year. we'll see as we get further out. at this point, they need to show demand is strong and growing and accelerating, and at least from where we're standing, things look pretty good, i think. >> i want to ask you about the story that seema was just talking about, and that is the idea that trump especially but perhaps both candidates would crack down on manufacturing of chips inside of the u.s., but what we have seen from tsmc versus what we haven't seen from intel, sort of talk about that and what it would mean if tsmc wasn't able to ramp up here in the united states.

>> it's, look, i'm be honest. i heard trump's comments as well. he was -- what did he say on rogan? he said he didn't like the chips act. he wanted to replace it with tariffs. look, it's trump so trump is going to trump. it doesn't make any sense. the idea that, like, taiwan has stolen, quote/unquote, our chip making abilities is ridiculous. that is not true. and like, not allowing foreign companies to make chips on u.s. soil, that is actually what we want. look, the whole idea that we are dependent on taiwan and that is becoming an untenable situation is very true, and we want to get leading edge infrastructure built here in the u.s., and to be honest, from a policy standpoint, it really shouldn't be mattering all that much who is building it. i understand why intel is sort of named the national champion, but if the goal is to get as much leading edge capacity built here as quickly as possible, we should be giving money to folks who can build it.

as of right now, that entity is tsmc. there was news flow over the last week that suggested their yield ramp in arizona is actually exceeding targets and maybe even exceeding what they do in taiwan. there are no other players that can make claims anywhere near that. if the goal is to build the capacity and get it here and installed and running in the u.s. to derisk the supply chain, that's happening right now. so stopping that would be a problem. >> have we given up on intel then? >> well, we'll see. they report ur earnings on thursday. clearly, intel's core business is under pressure. they're losing share and they can't rely on their own manufacturing right now. so they're outsourcing more, which is impacting gross margins and everything like that. they are -- they are suggesting that they believe their process over time is getting fixed. they're going to bring volume back to the u.s. and it's going to make everything wonderful. i guess we'll see. they had a day a few month ago

where they were sort of giving out targets for where they thought things could go over time. it really was like a 2030 story. even if they are on track, it's a slide between now and when we would actually see things really start to improve. as of right now, we don't know if they're truly improving or not. so strap in for thursday, i guess. it will be entertaining if nothing else, i'm sure. >> yeah. we're not going to get nvidia for a little bit, but you know, every so often you hear, i'm sure you do more than i do, well, there's a small company over here that's developing next generation chip that's going to ultimately disintermediate or push nvidia to the side. i mean, how long is their dominance, do you think, going to last? >> well, i mean, there's always somebody in the wings. this is an enormous market. the idea there's not going to be others trying to take a piece of the pie is ridiculous. of course they are. that being said, nvidia's built up their position in silicone

and hardware and systems and ecosystem over 10 or 20 years. and they have put those moats into place. anybody that is trying to get in there, and i'm not talking people can't get little bits. clearly, amd and others are getting little bits. but to be like material in that market, you have to penetrate those motes and it's very difficult thing to do. and especially for a start-up. you look at the amount of money that nvidia has to invest in these things versus smaller, very small companies. it's tough. it's very tough. at this point, i'm not terribly worried about some young upstart coming in and taking a massive amount of nvidia. i'm not even worried about larger competitors trying to take it. it doesn't seem to be impacting them much. >> maybe bits and pieces. that tracks with what i hear from investors in san francisco. stacey, thanks as always for your insights. >> you bet.

meantime, while surveys show a small percentage of undecided voters in this election, there may be more up for grabs than it first appears. we'll get details on that after a short break.

the u.s. dollar is heading for its largest monthly gain in 2 1/2 years against a basket of major currencies. one technician thinks there's more upside, but the long term trend is more uncertain. find out why, tune in to our market navigator segment.

i'm not going to throw joe under the bus but he's not a

great salesperson. donald trump is saying stuff that is gnaw true. you repeat a lie enough, people start to believe it. >> how much do you think we can rip out of this wasted $6.5 billion harris/biden budget? >> i think we're going to do at least $2 trillion. >> yeah, $2 trillion. >> that was mark cuban and then elon musk, speaking over the weekend. musk making the case for $2 trillion in cuts to the national budget. and former president trump also appearing, of course, on the joe rogan experience podcast late friday, claiming they called him personally to tell him his stint at mcdonald's was one of the biggest things we have ever had on google. it hit. i did hit up a few people at google to try to confirm that. haven't heard back. all that said, aig days until the election. it could come down to those who have yet to make up their mind and getting out the vote. senior economics reporter steve liesman with fresh insight into

who those people are and how they might vote. if they vote. >> yeah, we call them the persuadables. sounds like a political sitcom. this is a group of registered voters in our poll of 1,000 nationwide who are either undecided or told us they could yet change their mind. there are more than you think at this late stage in the race. take a look at the numbers here. 16% of all voters nationally are quote/unquote persuadable. that's 6% undecided. and 10% over here, they could yet change their mind. now, let's look at who these people are. if you look at it by who the preference is, 87% of trump voters say they'll definitely vote for trump, but 12% say they could change their mind. for harris, 92% say they'll definitely vote for her, but 7% are on the fence. 13% of those in the seven battleground states are persuadable versus 16% nationally. they are more republican, that's bad for trump and good for him

if you can bring them home. 45% are men. but 53% are women. harris does better with women so that's good for her. 30% have a high school education or less versus 22% college grads. that's good for trump. that's his group, but he has to bring them out. it points to the importance of this get out the vote effort. tens of millions being spent on both sides. trump has a 37-point lead with blue collar workers. but 18% are in what we call the low interest or low intensity voter. he has a big lead among the poor and working class. again, a low intensity voter. same with high school or less. voters of color, harris plus 27. again, a low interest voter. it comes done to this question, the election comes down to whether harris can get more of those persuadable women to her side and voters of color to the polls. for trump, it's about keeping persuadable republicans on his side and getting blue collar workers to turn out. it has to happen the most in the

battleground states. this is why trump was at mikd. this is why he was on joe rogan. this is why harris continues to campaign in the cities. all of this data tells you why and where they are for the last several days of the it all is focused right now, steve. >> exactly, david. >> i wanted to get your quick take on that exchange that we had there between musk and howard lutnik. $2 trillion out of the federal budget, $6.5 trillion, roughly, maybe a bit more than that. i mean, most of that's nondiscretionary. most of that's social security, medicare, medicaid. do the numbers in any way equate to the possibility of cutting $2 trillion? >> it depends on what you consider the possibility. i can cut $5 trillion out of the budget, david. i could do it tomorrow. the question is, would i remain in office or cause a revolution among, for example, you know, your social security recipients, your recipients of different

parts of the federal pie? it's easy to cut. it's hard to do so politically. there are all sorts of things. whether or not you could sort of get the fat out and that kind of stuff, i don't know. it's been argued for a long time. obviously, you have to promote or support the effort to get the fat out of government spending, but when you talk about big chunks like $2 trillion, it's going to be tough, politically, to do so. you're going to have to make a lot of enemies along the way, and it's going to be tough. >> and convince a lot of congress people. that's one reason we'll be watching the down ballots on tuesday the 5th, steve. interesting numbers. thank you, steve liesman. by the way, quick reminder, tune into our special coverage on election night. it's going to begin at 7:00 p.m. eastern time on november 5th. in the meantime, "squawk on the street" is back after this. ♪ well i was raised by careful hands ♪ ♪ yeah, they made me who i am ♪ ♪ so i'm off to see... ♪

we invent them. we design them. we build them. and one day, we have to let them soar. ♪ i'm always coming home ♪

watch markets this morning. close to session highs. dow is up 351. you got the russell up 1.6%. ten-year did get to 4.29%, backing off a little bit to 4.25%. oil was in the $67 range, finally getting back to $68. but there's a lot headed our way in the next five sessions, whether that's macro or

earnings. >> it will keep us busy. meanwhile, guys, i want to mention a story. things we're focused on in san francisco and tech, certainly, and now google could be jumping into the latest battle in the a.i. race, and that is agents that take over your computer. we've talked about the next leg in artificial intelligence is agent, more automated stuff that doesn't even require a human touch. the information is reporting that google is developing a new tool that controls your browser to do useful things. reportedly codenamed project jarvisand set to preview as early as december. it would follow anthropic's beta release last week of its own computer use agent tool that has already seen some early adopters, and guys, why this matters, which is maybe like the biggest overhang over google's stock, aside from all the legal battles, it has the lowest pe multiple, the cheapest of all the maga seven stocks, because of its innovators' dilemma. investors are constantly trying to figure out if google, who has all of the a.i. tools, they

developed the a.i. tools, if it's going to use them, if it can cannibalize its search. it's an important question. >> morgan stanley points out only nvidia's the only mag seven name that's up on the quarter and the worst of the seven is alphabet. because of these worries about, i guess, doj headwinds and obviously a.i. concerns. >> and it's computer use that anthropic was able to get out before google is another example how google has all of these tools but it's a little more -- i don't know what the word is. maybe it's careful. maybe it's a little careful because it has its huge search and advertising business, which is its bread and butter, but i will say that some of the other a.i. companies, like chatgpt, like perplexity, are starting to figure out how advertising looks in an a.i. world, and maybe the fear here is that they'll figure it out before google's able to or wants to. >> yeah. i mean, they were first -- deep mind, obviously, was far ahead. >> they wrote the transformers paper that enabled chatgpt, and

they sat on it and let openai get that moment. >> it's been one for sometime, although the stock has performed fairly well, despite these concerns, ultimately, about their monopoly in search. dee, thank you. >> lovely to be with you guys. >> you've got another hour. i don't. i'm out of here, but live market coverage continues right after this. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our

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♪ good monday morning, welcome to money movers, i'm carl quintanilla with deirdre bosa. today, the busiest week of earnings season. will reports from five of the mag seven extend the market's seven-week win streak, at least for the nasdaq? 50% of the gains for the s&p this year coming from those seven names. we'll discuss. and then speaking of big tech, amazon's nuclear partner, the ceo of x energy, is with us following a half a billion dollar investment from the tech giant. plus, oil and gas, nat gas, plummeting as israel's response to iran quells some market fears. crude is having its worst day since july of '22. are there any bullish narratives