there's futures trading happening. there's an artificial construct to worry about when it opens and closes. >> i agree. i don't think it adds much value. it's going to maybe go to 24 hours. but who cares? does it add any intrinsic value? i don't think so. >> we plan on being live 22 hours a day. it will be wonderful. >> we'll be following the game. david, thanks very much. and thank you for watching "power lunch." >> three stock dinner. "closing bell" starts right now. thanks. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live at the new york stock exchange. the countdown to big tech earnings, 24 hours before alphabet reports and with the nasdaq riding a seven-week winning streak. we'll ask our experts what's really at stake over the next four days. in the meantime let's show you the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. we have green across the board today. for the majors led by financials and utilities, it is the dow outperforming, up three-quarters of a percent. even a rise in yields is not enough to derail stocks today as

the ten year hits its highest level since the summer. we'll get the jobs report this friday as well. the fed meeting looming, the election and all of that. it does take us to our "talk of the tape." where does this rally go from here? joe terranova, chief market strategist and a cnbc contributor along with samir samana. what's riding on this week? lay it out. >> it's the mega cap earnings. it's hearing from companies like alphabet, microsoft and apple, hearing, in fact, what the direction of their revenue growth is. and really about what the future plans are related toward their spending with a.i., because i think, in particular, alphabet, we've priced in the a.i. capex. you look at two companies and you see two remarkably different conditions. apple near an all-time high.

alphabet 12.7% off of its high earlier in the summer. and why is that? apple -- there's excitement, there's optimism. new imac, optimism surrounding apple intelligence. and then for alphabet there's concerns on the core strength. there's concerns, is cloud still going to be a standout? and there's concern surrounding the doj and really, more importantly, how much they have to spend on a.i. to me it's all about mega caps. >> i think we know that it's about that. of course you have a jobs report later in the week. what's really riding on this week's report? how good do they have to be? it was suggested there is a higher bar because the nasdaq has been rallying to these new all-time highs. we suggested we're on a seven-week winning streak. does that mean the report is all the higher? >> i think so. look, i think not only do you need a beat, but you need a beat and raise on the guidance looking forward, because you've seen a couple things happening.

equities haven't been higher for the last few weeks is a good one. the other thing is the fact that earnings estimates have been coming down for this quarter and the whole year. what companies should be able to do is set the tone in a more positive way for the coming year. if they can do that, we can make further gains once we get past the election related uncertainty. >> what do you want to apddress in terms of the reports? the stocks went to sleep in the third quarter. they've woken up, to say the least. we've suggested this run that the nasdaq has been on, a lot of the stocks have performed pretty well of late. you can take alphabet and microsoft out of that because they've been the underperformers. alphabet is the only negative one. microsoft has done virtually nothing in the last, you know, few months. >> well, they were able to kind of go to sleep, as you suggest, because someone else got in the

driver's seat and that was other areas of the market that have underperformed whether it's the 493 or you trade down in an equity size class to mid caps or even make the argument small caps in q3. there were other areas of the market got in the driver's seat. i don't think as we look into q4, scott, you're going to be blessed with that condition once again. if there's a misstep this week with the mega caps, i'm not so sure other areas of the market are going to be there to pick up some of the corrective behavior we're going to see. >> sameer, do you think momentum is back in tech, or are we still trying to figure out the next leadership leg is going to look like? >> oh, it's absolutely back in tech. it's hard to argue tech and comm services aren't up leaders. to joae's point, the cyclical areas have stepped up. i would say if there is a little bit of a stumble, it wouldn't surprise me if financials, given the steepening of the yield

curve, pick up the baton and run with it. >> news out of the treasury i want to interrupt the conversation and bring in our steve liesman who has that breaking news for us. >> reporter: we learned the treasury, scott, expects to borrow $546 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, $19 billion lower than announced in july of 2024 when they put that estimate out because they had a higher cash balance, as in more money in the bank if the treasury offset by lower cash flows. now here's the forecast. $8 $823 billion in the first quarter, the largest but comes with a big cash balance they're going to keep. i'll talk about that in one more second. they borrowed $762 in the third quarter of '24. they had more in the cash balance and offset by higher net cash flows. one more thing they expect to have a cash balance, looking up these numbers here of -- i'll give it to you, scott -- $700

billion in the first quarter -- $850 billion in the first quarter of 2025 from $700 billion in the fourth quarter. they are kind of squirreling money away because there's another debt ceiling fight brewing for the first part of the year. >> it just makes us think, steve, about the deficit and all of that. we are watching yields of late. as we said the ten year is the highest in some three months. leads me back to our panel. joe, the market has been uneasy with the rise in yields, the backup. yields up today. the stock is up today. at some point maybe we focus on the fact that growth is better than anticipated thus the backup in yields is okay. is that the right way to look at it? >> it's okay for now. we have one day. we have one moment here towards the second hatlf of october in which the cyclical part of the market is leading on an intraday basis with yields moving higher. a ten year up to 4.28.

does that give me confidence that as we move through the entirety of the fourth quarter and we flip the calendar into 2025 if yields continue to move higher that we're going to be able to expect that same type of good behavior? i don't believe so. i really don't. i think that's why, over the last several weeks, i've been emphasizing the point that trading up towards quality should be first and foremost what investors are thinking about and secondarily it's making the return to the mega caps. it's going back to those companies that don't have the sensitivity the assets not long duration. they don't have the sensitivity if yields rise to 4.50, 4.75. >> and yet, though, joe, the russell is up. >> i know, but it's one day, scott. i think that's one day more than anything else. >> why would they be up? >> i think liquidity is light. we're one week, eight days,

rather, from an election. liquidity is like. there's a lot of dislocations within the market today. the vix is lower. oil is down significantly. i think the correlation mix is a little dislocated. >> sameer, is there a problem with the backup in yields, and, if so, at what point? >> probably not at these levels. 5 last year at this time. 4.60 earlier this year. we would argue something north of 4.50 probably gives the market some pause. need to remain well behaved for tech to continue leading the market. a dark horse pick, waefl liked energy for a while, our most favorable sector. oil is down. energy is barely down on the day. that sector is pretty much priced for almost all the bad news we've gotten. if you can get the different things to fall into place on china, on energy, on the u.s. economic recovery we see next year, energy does really well.

given that multiple, it probably doesn't face a lot of head winds from interest rates. >> there hasn't been a direct correlation about the movement in crude oil and the direction of energy stocks, so it's going to be interesting to watch. let's bring it back to where we started as we countdown to alphabet's big report that hits the tape tomorrow in "overtime." deirdre bosa joins us for a look at what she thinks we need to be watching. >> as i told you earlier, it's about core, core advertising revenue. any softness could be seen as vulnerable in generative a.i. when people are using more chatbots and that could be pulling them away from traditional search and as more competition comes online from the likes of perplexity and in search in general. while google is facing this mountain of legal issues, investors will be looking for color. as with last quarter capex will be big as well.

investors want to know not just how much they are willing to spend. sundar pichai said they can't spend too much. how that will show up in growth and the bottom line. google has been rappinging up overviews, roll out to any user. we're going to be looking for how are merchants and companies using the new advertising tools seeing it and, two, users, are they responding well, spending as much time on google now they're served up the overviews. this is the first quarter that we're going to hear from google's new cfo, alphabet's new c cfo. >> relative to this conversation and the kinds of conversations we've had on the show with the founder of perplexity a week or

so ago, dee, how much do you think alphabet is concerned about companies like perplexity and the loss of share and search and advertising and the things they say they're coming at google for? >> i think they're very concerned. we haven't seen a google that has moved this quickly in a very long time. they have made generative a.i. possible. it's had hits over the last little bit and integrated a.i. features into its pixel phones, it went viral among tech. it's moving faster. i'm hearing they're doing things like hiring outside because they want to move quickly and have the scrappy startup edge. hiring back one of those authors of that famous transformers paper. is it fast enough and the big

question, are they willing to cannibalize its bread and butter that has been such a good business, advertising and search, to move as quickly where perplexity doesn't have those kinds of stakes. >> dee, thank you. that's deirdre bosa. you have it in the joet. ? >> let's speak to the price action. could it be back above $200? it could. it speaks to long term there's enough here in the story that if you are a true long-term investor, you could stay with it. there's a lot of questions this company has to answer and i'm not sure you will answer it all tomorrow night. you're talking about spending

significant amount of capital on a.i. a.i. capex continues to increase. when does that show up in revenue growth? when does that show up in margin expansion? i don't think you'll hear that story tomorrow. and then i've talked on "halftime" over the last several months about this, the penetration as it relates to market share and search, it's real. you want to control the search narrative. that's a problem for alphabet. >> sameer, when you look at earnings and the totality of where growth is expected to come from and there's a heavy reliance on tech and the money continues to go there from investors, earnings growth year on year for tech, 13.5 expected year on year earnings growth for

comm services minus 0.2 for the rest. >> it does and has for a while. people want to believe in the mean reversion broadening out story. there's nothing wrong with that. we went neutral on small caps for most unfavorable in the august pullback. you still want to favor the larger names over smaller cap names and i think until you get the manufacturing piece to work, the lower socioeconomic to work that's when things broaden out. >> another biggie, thursday, halloween. launching its a.i. system today ahead of those numbers. steve kovach joining us now with that. steve? >> reporter: scott, it's time to test the narrative if this apple

intelligence can juice iphone 16 sales. if you were hoping for siri to get smarter today, you're going to be a little disappointed. only a few features are in this release, some notification, a new writing tool. there's better a.i. features, chatgpt integration, emojis and images and the real update, everyone is waiting for, the big siri update and the integration with all the apps on your phone is not going to come until next year. as we've been saying over and over again, some sour commentary. the ceos of at&t and verizon said demand for iphone isn't as strong as last year and they're unsure to change that. apple cut iphone 16 orders by 10 million, higher than usual for this time of the year but we're going to have earnings coming this thursday, scott.

>> back to joe. there's been a lot of noise in the market. >> the stock has almost avoided it complete. it's up 1%. >> the classic example of the resiliency, apple is the truest representation of that resiliency because we've heard so much since labor day about potential disappointment -- >> almost 3% year to date. i made a mistake. i mean, over a month. i'm digging a deeper hole for myself. keep going. >> we've digested a lot of negative potential news surrounding it. i'm excited about the imac. it saved this company back in the '90s. now you're talking about apple intelligence, okay, i get apple intelligence on my iphone, how

about on my imac. that's real. i think this company right now is experiencing very strong positive momentum and it's probably unexplained for some reason based on a lot of the headlines. >> so we're likely to get a reasonably volatile market given these reports and then you have the jobs report and the election a week from tomorrow, so, sameer, talk about the volatility you expect as a result of the jobs report, what it might mean for the fed and, of course, the election, how you're thinking of the aftermath of how the stock market might do. >> the jobs report, not to take anything away from it, it leads the fed to rethink rate cuts next year. we think it's locked in. the fed is a slow moving body. around. election, one or two scenarios, a pullback before then or probably one right after because it might be one of those buy the rumor, sell the news, or a true

surprise given the market slowly seems to be drifting in one direction. if there's a pullback, our north star would be three different trades, one stocks and commodities over bonds. we want to own the viewex over international, emerging markets. we're not believers in the china rebound story. the third is anything but defense is how we've been terming it out. cyclicals, growth, if the economy bottoms in the first part of next year the market runs three months ahead of that and now is the time to start positioning. >> everything i can see fundamentally this is a secular bull market. for those that are skeptical, this is a calm market. we talked about at the beginning of the show a ten-year treasury at 4.28 and cyclicals are rallying. you're skeptical. you don't believe this is the

market you need within the market to utilize the options market or you want to allocate towards more defensive holdings, it's there. it's a calm environment. >> we'll leave it there. sameer, thank you. to kate rooney. scott, so delta airlines higher today getting a boost from lower oil prices. shares popped after a decline in crude amid escalating tensions. delta is one of the largest carriers in the u.s. and should benefit from lower fuel prices, a major variable cost for those airlines. delta today also suing cyber security company crowdstrike over those tech outages we saw in july, accusing crowdstrike of gross negligence. and then nio on a bullish analyst call, jumping 10% or so after an inquiry upgraded from neutral. scott, back to you.

we're just getting started on "the bell." tony pasquariello is back with us breaking down how investors should position their portfolios ahead of a few critical weeks for the market. we're live at the new york stock u' wch.e yoreating "closing bell" on cnbc. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere. ♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the dow with dia. getting there starts here. ♪♪ i got my (bleep) together. the whole class knows i got my (bleep) together. you can get your shots together too. ask your healthcare provider about getting this season's covid-19 shot

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oh my gosh. - this year's book is a testament to your accomplishments and how they have impacted all of us. - getting my high school diploma made me feel like i can do anything. now i can help the kids in my community achieve their dreams. - when you graduate, they graduate. visit finishyourdiploma.org to find free and supportive adult education centers near you. welcome back. as we enter a critical stretch for stocks, the election of fed decision, jobs report within the next two weeks. how should investors be positioning ahead of the market moving events? let's ask tony pasquariello. the global head of hedge fund coverage at goldman sachs back with us again. it's good to see you. how are you feeling about it? >> the dynamics are favorable for risk.

let's start with growth. q3 gdp will print 3%. alongside that we have earnings growth plus 8% this year and as the market looks forward plus 11% next year and then the fed. we think they cut 200 basis points. we have 50 in our pocket and another 150 from here until next june. >> i think that's probably well known to the market, the s&p looking to be up 11 of the past 12 months. where i keep coming out it's a bull market. the primary trend is higher. the setup is demanding and so i don't love risk/reward, we have a lot of wood to chop in the next two weeks. and my guess is a trader's market with an overarching bias which is positive. >> are you talking about the wood to chop being tactically the next two weeks is difficult but get past that and then we go towards what you said the bigger themes are, stronger growth, the

fed is still going to cut maybe not as much or as big as we thought but it's still a bull market despite what could be a messy next couple of weeks? >> i think that's right. mega cap tech, payrolls, of course the election and then the fed. i think if you get through that sequence, which is a lot -- >> it's a lot of sequence. >> it's a lot. >> on the other side of that, presuming on net, that's a nontraumatic series of events. the seasonals turn favorable and probably a lot of buybacks to be done in the last two months of the year. that is the single biggest technical in the market. the seasonal story is favorable at the end of the year in addition to election dynamics, and so it sets up well, again, knowing we have to clear a series of hurdles from here to there. >> you use the words traumatic, not specifically referenced to

the election itself or the post election period. but if that period proves more traumatic than some are expecting, would you be a buyer of the dip if it happened in the stock market? >> i think there's a little bit of risk premium in the price already. so take a look at the vix. the s&p 500 has made higher all-time highs. the 35-year history of the vix, when the s&p makes an all-time high, the average level is 15. we sit here today between 19 and 20. we don't know how much between versus, payrolls versus the fed. that's all on the to-do list. i think that alone, once we get over the hurdle, i think that would stabilize the market. >> okay. the backup in yields, i get the feeling based on what you've already said, you think it's just a product of stronger than

expected growth, not something else to be overly concerned about? >> hard to disassociate exactly what the drivers have been. to my eye it started with a better than expected run of economic data which leads to the second point, the market's pulled back the expectation from what the fed will be doing between now and the middle of next year. you've had some technicals and you have a market which is telling you the bias of the election is one of reflation. that, to this point in the game, has been fine. it hasn't stood in the way of parts of the market i like the most like financials and tech. if you ask the question, when is does the bond market impinge. it is 60 basis points in today's terms. we're about there. and so i do think the further you go in yields, particularly if it comes from a less friendly place, that could impinge a little bit. >> financials and tech your two favorite places.

let's take them with the latter first, tech, because we're going to have the mega cap earnings this week which you have really favored throughout the duration of the year, throughout the last two years of this bull market. is there any reason to change the bias now towards mega caps? >> i still like them. the setup today, the starting point today is not what it was one year ago when we made the local low or two years ago when we made the big low in october of 2022. that's just the law of large numbers, the appreciation we've seen since then. i'm drawn to the return of capital. i'm drawn to the reinvestment of capital and, again, we're going to learn a lot about the buyback numbers and capex numbers this week. i think if i squint, scott, i can tell myself a story that the setup for q3 earnings is a limb bit easier than it was for q1 earnings and q2 earnings. i say that with respect to

earnings expectation and positioning. goldman sachs clients, we're sellers of tech stocks in june, july, august, and september. so i actually think even though the nasdaq is up seven weeks in a row, thankfully, i think there's some room here for the stocks to trade well on good prints. >> what i didn't realize until i read your note today is november is the single strongest month for buybacks. >> check. >> why so? you've been on the buyback thing for a whileas being stimulating for stocks. >> that's right. u.s. corporates a trillion dollars of stock this year and a trillion dollars next year so, again, it is the biggest sponsor in the market by a mile. the best two-month period of the year is november plus december, as you said and i said, november is the single best month. i don't know why that is at the end of the year you tidy your

desk and get it done. >> use the money left in the budget. >> that could be $6 billion a day once we're fully clear of the blackout window. 9. >> how do you view what is undoubtedly and most talked about, the market caps? what do i do with a stronger economic backdrop but a backup in yields? >> you are supposed to buy mid cap not small cap. four in ten are not profitable at a time when gdp growth is 5% and financial conditions are easy. what is my margin of safety when the tide goes out? this is like an unpolished gem. that's 40 years ago, it has

beaten the pants off. it's outperformed small cap -- >> right at you're talking -- >> that's the chart. it trades on a 15 p/e versus russell on roughly a 30. for half the valuation i'm getting the better asset, the beginning, middle, end. >> i always feel like you lay out an easy to understand market story, tony. thank you. tony pasquariello, goldman sachs joining us again. the former dallas fed president, richard fish iers standing by. we get his take on rising yields and what he is expecting from the fed decision next week. he joins us after the break. help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley when you're looking for

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welcome back. stocks are green across the board. the ten-year yield, looking ahead to the friday jobs report and what it might mean for the next fed meeting. richard fisher, jefferies senior adviser and cnbc contributor. nice to see you. >> thanks, scott. thanks for having me. appreciate it. >> what are they going to do in this meeting after the election, do you think? >> i don't know, to be honest with you. i always think of what i would be arguing if i were sitting still at that table. and as was pointed out by tony and others we have good economic growth of 3% or so most likely in this quarter. pretty full employment, manufacturing continues to suffer but there still is demand for services.

if i were sitting at the table, scott, i would probably be almost arguing -- we don't do it to satisfy the stock market bettors that are depending on every little bitty move. we have to realize after the last 50 basis point cut, the six month all the way out the yield curve on treasury, rates are higher. you pointed out the ten year, also true for the one year, the two year, the six month, and the 30 year. so the question is, why is that happening? as you know, i have my own theory about that. i'm not sure it makes the difference, frankly, at this point, and i would probably be arguing let's just settle in here. i'm willing to accept 25 if the rest of the committee wants to do it but i'm not sure it's necessary at this point. >> what do you think the chances are of a pause either at the november meeting or the last one

of the year? you're not the only one suggesting at this point that, you know what, maybe they only go one more time this year. maybe they go next week, sit back and wait and see what happens. >> i would expect another quarter some time this year. it could be at either meeting. again, for this meeting, i don't think it's necessary. there's still a lot of data we want to see. and if you take an extra month or an extra six weeks, that's the way the clock works, it gives you more time to examine the data. >> is this also because -- i think what's being proven out, obviously -- i don't think i'm breaking any new territory with suggesting this, the neutral rate is higher than what they once thought. by virtue that growth is as strong as it is. they're not as restrictive as they probably thought they were which gives them the luxury maybe of just doing that one you

suggest and then taking their time to see what happens with the data. how would you assess that? >> i would have a button at the table and play what up just said. financial conditions are still fairly lenient, the spreads, as you know, are narrow, even though the rates have raisen. the credit markets are fairly flush still. we have a lot of private credit out there. and look at the stock market. we are accommodative here. so what's the need to push on that? i'm not sure. >> do you worry about what inflation is going to do in the future? we can spin that towards the election and where we think certain policy may land depending on a particular outcome or not. i'm obviously thinking about the deficit, which i know you're spending a lot of time thinking

about. >> correct. >> most market observers and financial participants are thinking about that. i want to play you something that jamie dimon said today when he was speaking of how strong growth is, what kind of landing we might have, and his own concerns about the deficit. we'll talk on the other side of that. listen, please. >> during covid, we gave a lot of money out. i think they did the right stuff to move early and quick, but i think it was clearly overdone which led to the inflation and things like that. but it's still that way, and now the deficit is 7%, the largest peacetime deficit we've ever had is $2 trillion. what i said is true around the world, and injust -- my concern inflation, in my view, may not go away so quickly. we might go into next year, 2026, where it starts ticking up a little bit like it did in the '70s. >> so, richard, instead of

saying, yeah, the deficit's a problem, like everybody has -- we know it's an issue -- the question is, what do we do about it? how do we solve this problem as we had a report from steve liesman on how much the treasury is borrowing, how much they're going to continue to borrow, how we finance this ever-growing deficit, what do we do? >> let's put what steve was saying in the harshest perspective and what jamie dimon, who i have tremendous respect for is pointing to. we spent in fiscal year 2023 $950 billion on interest and, by the way, only $826 billion on defense. that's a horrific imbalance. we have issues coming due, the u.s. government, that are maturing, particularly if you go out further on the yield curve, that were financed at 4% plus

which means our interest payments are going to increase further. again, i try to stay away from the politics of the moment, but both candidates are proposing programs that if you take them for their word, and if you assume congress would pass them through, are going to lead to further deficit and still higher spending on interest above $950 billion, which is what was spent on interest in 2023. the only way to get out of this, there are two. one is to grow more rapidly. we did that during the clinton administration you may remember, scott, and we ended up having a balanced budget, paying down the government debt. or you can inflate your way out of it. and i am firmly convinced that under this leadership of the fed right now, this fomc, this

chairman in jay powell, there is no instinct to ever even contemplate that. now what we will have in 2026 in the spring is whoever is elected president gets to appoint the next fed chair. then you have the senate who has to confirm them. so there's a lot in the air right here, scott, in terms of what may be coming longer term but i think would be a grievous error for the central bank to inflate our way out of this debt. the tough decisions, scott, are on mandatory spending programs whether it's welfare or medicare, medicaid, all the support programs. and the only way to deal with this, in terms of the cost side, is to make some very difficult decisions to contain that growth over time. i don't harear either candidate talking about that -- not a single great nation has survived when their interest payments

exceed their defense spending. >> the reason the candidates aren't talking about it, we know why, it's because, you know, their constituents don't want to touch entitlements. >> it's true. >> it's a deeply unpopular suggestion to do it. >> look at what happened to george h.w. bush, read my lips, remember, and then he changed. that was the end of his campaign. a very good man, an outstanding individual. so, no, you don't want to talk about it, but, scott, what's leadership? i understand they're in the campaign, neither is going to touch that horrible hot rail, but once they're in office, and particularly if trump gets elected, he only has four years. he will have to make some very tough decisions, and there doesn't seem to be any indication he's leaning in that direction. i hope that's not the case. if she gets elected, harris, she's going to be looking at

eight years, and it makes it very difficult to do. let's not pin it all on the president. it is the congress which is the problem. and as i've told you and we've talked about before, as george shultz used to say, there's no difference in congress between republicans and democrats when it comes to spending money with one exception, democrats enjoy it more, but republicans do the same thing. we have to reverse that, tough decision making, real leadership. and right now it's questionable whether we're going to have it. >> we'll talk to you many times, richard, in the weeks and months april ahead. i greatly appreciate your time, as always. >> scott, i always appreciate being with you, thank you. >> appreciate that. richard fisher joining us. up next the biggest movers into the close. kate rooney is standing by with that. kate? up next, one brokerage name jumping into the betting market and an analyst upgrade sending shares of the music streaming giant higher. all those names and details

after the break.

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they meet certain criteria including being a u.s. citizen. spotify getting a boost from an analyst upgrade from wells fargo, calling spotify a top pick, ups the price target to 470 maintaining an overweight rating. they say they do expect expansion ahead of consensus. rapid7 exploring options after interest from buyout firms. shares up more than 5%. we're up 7% ahead of the close. >> kate rooney. still ahead, oil sinking on pace for its worst day in some two years. the big leg lower coming up. covid-19? i'm not waiting. if it's covid, paxlovid. paxlovid is an oral treatment for adults

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we are in "the closing bell" "market zone." mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day plus pippa stevens with the details on toeday's energy slump and why 3m shares are leading. pippa, oil is having its worst day in two years. tell us more. that's right, scott. oil sinking 5.5% with the market viewing israel's attack on iran, which april voipded nuclear and oil facilities, de-escalate ory. now the geopolitical risk premium is shifting the focus back to fundamentals, an oversupplied market. the weakness is spilling over into nat gas as well. the front month tumbling 11%. a december contract about 60

cents higher but down 8%. the commodity drop is hitting energy stocks which are the only negative group on the day with the upstream drillers leading those declines. scott? >> pippa, thank you. pippa stevens. to seema mody, a stock that's doing quite well, right? >> the stock was upgraded in spring but raising from 160. the company has gone through a massive transformation, multibillion dollar settlements, restructuring, spinning off health care, they are bullish on 3m's new management at the helm. >> a lot of this is driven by productivity, price cost, so they get any revenue growth, anything north of 3%, that's all gravy on top of what we're expecting. >> the question is whether focus on change and restructuring pivots to real earnings growth. since the health care spinoff in april, the stock has rebounded

sharply, average price target is $149 a share. i point out the stock trading at $130. >> seema, thank you. seema mody with the update on 3m. mike santoli joins us now for his own last word of the day. a pretty good day as we're about to get hot and heavy on the earnings and the jobs report. >> the s&p 500 hanging in there. a low momentum move. it's been sideways for two weeks. picking spots starting to get overexcited, bank up another 2% today as a group. small caps have this bid. watching for areas that are just looking jumpy and have all that hot money like gamestop is up 10%, bitcoin may be breaking out. it's odd. the overall market is in wait-and-see mode. and you also have this retail money that may suggest people

are getting overconfident in certain themes. the earnings are really going to overtake whatever is going on from here as well as the bond market response to data. >> we're going to ring the bell, green across the board. 24 hours from now we are going to start delivering those mega cap earnings. alphabet is going to kick it off as we send you to cover that huge story and what lies ahead into "o.t." with morgan and jon. that's the end of regulation. walmart ringing the closing bell. data i.o. doing the honors at the nasdaq. the small caps getting a big pop as a huge week of earnings and so much more gets under way. energy finishing in the red after oil saw its biggestdrop. welcome to "closing bell overtime." >> cadence design, vf