the ze as&p. >> on the smaller side, but not small, i'm curious, amd's going to report, given that the stock hasn't performed as well as nvidia. yeah, amd, intel later in the week, as well. going to be a busy one. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. consumer comeback. from retail stocks to airlines, we're seeing strength today across consumer-facing sectors. is this a sign that spending will stay strong through year end? and banking on gains. financials getting a bump today as interest rates hit more than three-month highs. is there more room to run? plus, a ford flop after the legacy auto maker's disappointing guidance. taiwan semi slides as the chips are found somewhere they shouldn't be. and back on the menu. mcdonald's brings back the quarter pounder as it gets ready to release results tomorrow. i'm melissa lee coming to you

live from studio b at the nasdaq. we start off with the holiday that seems to come earlier, with every year. that is right. we are counting down to christmas. forget about halloween. we're looking forward. 57 days. >> i hear santa. >> in the holiday shopping season, and a wide range of consumer-facing stocks are feeling the christmas cheer. the xrt retail etf gaining more than a percent today. bellwether names like walmart, home depot closing formally in the green. even luxury names are back in vogue, at least today. kering up 3%. elsewhere, the travel trade continues to grind higher. delta, united airlines hitting the highest levels since before the start of the pandemic. american, southwest, alaska air gained between 3% and 4%. are these signs of consumer resilience heading into the wh ho ho -- >> was that sandy?

>> no, really. >> hi, santa. >> you're nervous. >> cracking myself up. well, you don't want to get on santa's bad side. >> no, not the naughty list. >> tim talks about the airlines trading, he's been right. now, looks like they're trading from the long side. a lot of these have broken up. resist re re resistance, we're clearly through it. especially at delta, the all-time high is $62, i think, you continue to play it from the long side here. and i think it's out of that range. does it make commentary about their consumer? not necessarily. i think it's more a commentary about momentum right now. >> i think delta, the broader airline space, part of this is finally working off after covid. you have a november investor day, they're saving some goodies for. you can't have an investor day without good news. we've had a number of different updates, including capacity

updates, that's good. so, call it some type of discipline in terms of capacity in the airline sector, that's very important. and their price, they're holding up. you've had relief from oil prices, but i really do think it is about investors understanding the earnings ability of this airline, which is trading cheap available to itself. this was on a five-year upswing, if you look at the chart going into covid. we know what happened going into covid. covid didn't torch their balance sheet. and i think it's being rewarded now. >> can we go -- >> no, no. >> i don't know, seemed heavy in the airline. >> consumer. >> let's look at this one. guy is talking about e-come me commerce at walmart, i think you have to look at amazon. so, if you think about on a multiple basis, when's the last time walmart and amazon have traded anywhere in the same neighborhood? so, right now, you have amazon and the outyear, that would be trading at 32 times. double digit expected, earnings

and sales growth, versus a walmart that trades at 30 times and you're getting mid-single digits growth. if you like what walmart has been able to do, you're going to like amazon and retame. granted, this week, when they record, it's going to trade on aws. that's it. but you might get an opportunity to kind of get it lower and think about it into the end of the year. >> the bigger, broader -- why are you latching? >> because our director just texted nancy something and nancy texted me something, it was very funny. >> way too much -- >> you asked me a question. you want me to lie? >> the bigger question is, is the consumer in a better place? this morning, i was watching a local newscast in new york city and talking about the turkey dinner has come down in price significantly this year versus last year. >> right. >> i'm thinking, you know what, prices are coming down, i'm feeling better. the fed is cutting, there's a little bit more election uncertainty, so -- maybe things are not so bad.

>> right, i think everyone is going to have a major sigh of relief on the other side of this election, and i think consumers are the same. and they are withholding a lot of their decisions, even though it's probably not going to make a difference either way. what i think is really important to bear in mind is that we still have a cumulative impact of inflation, right? even though we can have incremental places where there is deflation, it still has been really pretty challenging, particularly for the low-end consumer. so you the place that i'm really interested in is absolutely walmart, but also, you know, the dollar stores and anything that is targeting the low end consumer to get a better sense of how they're feeling and how they're stacking up. they all have jobs, which is great, but it's important to know that savings are not where they need to be, and we are still not sure exactly what kind of holiday season it's going to be. have webeen naughty or nice, i don't know. i know what i am, it's not nice, that's for sure. >> wow. i mean, that's another show. >> another thing. >> tell you what. >> we don't have time for that. >> dan mentioned walmart.

goldman sachs just reiterated their buy, despite the fact -- if you put up a chart, it's a parabolic move on a stock that doesn't move that way. yes, it's expensive, but it's walmart's world, as well, without a question, and i think it can continue to sort of levitate. they're through earnings. feels as though this thing just wants to continue its rise to the mid 90s, and then we'll have a conversation about whether or not it deserves is it. the comparison between amazon and walmart at these levels, i think it's a fair one for sure. >> think about the customer base walmart's gained. they've gained households that earn $100,000 or more. can they hold onto that? if they can hold onto that during this period, period going forward, that's a huge gain, right? >> i don't know why they wouldn't. and i think a lot of people have determined where they want to spend an extra dollar, where they don't, and when it comes to groceries, going into a place where you know you are going to have as cheap of an offering as possible, but the overall general merchandise mix at

walmart is getting better for walmart. i think about the investments they've made in technology, and in loyalty, and dynamics that i think are really helping the multiple right now. i think you can still own walmart here, too. i would just say about this amazon, that reports on halloween, guy -- >> boo. >> and the operating income number, i think there's a negative sentiment there that could be a surprise. i actually think the aws story is fine, but i think from the e-commerce perspective, across the entire space, you said, same-store sales third quarter, i think, are better. and i think that's something that the market has not priced in. >> going to the macro, i know we're going to get some data, we look at the unemployment rate, everybody was talking about that rule, bottomed out, what was it, 3.5%, 55-year low, here we are at 4.1%. but to julie's point about inflation, yeah, it's come down. there's still that cumulative aspect of it. so, there's a lot of interesting stuff going on, but the one monkey wrench is this ten-year yield going to, from 3.6% to

4.3%, and so, i don't know it really matters who wins this election, because i think the yield trap is the yield trap, and guy's been talking about this for a long time, i mean, if we have increased deficit, you're going to have a higher yield than we've bottomed out in in the last cycle. it's going to be an interesting time for the consumer, but businesses are waiting to see where all this shakes out before they make decisions, which brings me back to the unemployment rate. there's a lot of stuff that needs to be answered. >> i will say this. i think as much as we're all appropriately concerned about the deficit and the technical dyn dynamics, i think yields are going higher because the economy's better. i think right here and now, what we're talking about is possibly a one to three to five-year story. i realize the dynamics are getting worse. as we go into election, we can talk about both parties not being terribly focused on the deficit and talking about cutting revenue sources, but this is all about the strength of the economy. this is about the strength of

the consumer. this is a dynamic, we're going into that fed meeting and the 50-basis point cut. everything we're getting from jobless claims, it is quince dent, and there's no correlation between that and the labor market falling apart. the move in yeechlds is a function of where we overshot to the downside. less than things we should all be worried about, and i agree with the deficit, but i think this is about the xheeld. >> we've been here before. as l as long as it stays below 5% -- >> equities don't care. you're right to point that out. carter points that out. we're nowhere now for the last year and a half, or so, with a lot of volatility. but it's the speed of the move. to tim's point, is it -- are rating moving higher because the economy is on firm footing? you get anticipated 3.1%, or is it more so because of all the debt problems? listen. obviously the answer is, it's a

combination of the two, which one is more important? i lean towards the issuance and the debt problem, why yields are going higher. >> next meeting, for the fed, november 7th, i can't remember a meeting in the recent, you know, history, where it could be -- i mean, who nope what the heck is going to happen here, the election might not be settled by then. if you think about what yields have done in the face of that 50-basis point cut, there might be extreme volatility around that meeting. >> the ten-year cupping a 4.3% level for the first time since mid-july. that as markets increasingly expect the fed will soon pause its rate cuts. cnbc's steve liesman has the details. dan was mentioning the timing of this, in terms of the proximity of the election, and perhaps we go into the fed meeting not know what the administration will be, but i guess the fed's not political, so, that aside. >> i think that's right, melissa. it's going to be an unknown and we'll have a little bit of data between them. rate cuts, we hardly knew you.

here's the probabilities. 95% probability for a cut, that's where the market is priced right now for '25. another 25, 70% probability in december. if those two things happen, remember, that one is dependent on the next, there it is, a pause, 46% probability of a rate cut which is to say, a 54% probability, that 50 basis points of cuts later, the fed would pause in january. and the cuts in the cuts, they go beyond january. futures market expected a funds rate a year from now of 284. now the expectation, just 363. so, the market still sees 100 basis points of cuts, but it's dialed out 80 from that expectation. that expected change of heart from the fed, as you guys were just talking about, i would say linked to stronger growth. we get gdp this week. firmer inflation. we get a pce report on thursday.

and it comes with a lot of uncertainty around the election. just talking about that. related to the spending and tax policies of the two candidates. so, if we have weaker growth, resumption in inflation decline, and some sense of fiscal sanity, from either candidate, it could restore some of those expectations, but as you know, melissa, those are three very big ifs. >> yeah. steve, in terms of the climb in rates we've seen since the last fed meeting, what's your take on what is fueling this, i mean, just based on who you talk to and your own sort of gut feeling, so many years of experience doing this? because if it is because the economy is actually better, then there's no basiser if 95% chance for a 25-basis point cut. >> i wouldn't say that, melissa. i tend to think there is the ability -- the fed does have the ability to lower interest rates because the rates were set to deal with essentially 9% inflation and stubborn inflation. we are likely to print, melissa, a 2.1% or 2% pce number on

thursday. that's the fed's target. so, we're going to hit that target. there is no reason for rates to be quite as high above neutral. i do think the market has the argument right. i don't think it has the number right. i believe it has the argument right. the debate is not about, whether the fed cut really near term, but really, how much the fed will cult over the longer or medium term. and i think this debate about what happens a year from now is really the bigger question. i could see the fed pausing, but look, i just read a report, we're going -- you know, pantheon economics sees 3.5% growth being printed on thursday, but then they see a sharper decline down into 1.5%. if that happens, rate cuts are back on. >> steve, tim. based upon the move we've seen in some of the macro data, and forget what the interest rate markets have done, but do you think the fed, if they could go 25 at that last meeting, they could, they would at this point? anybody feel like they wish they hadn't gone 50? >> and i apologize, that should

have been part of my response to melissa, which is, i think that some of the rhetoric from some of the fed officials has a little bit of, you know, a regret on the morning after, in the sense that they thought they might have, should have done 25 and they would be freer to sort of do more 25s in the future. but that big 50, i think, some fed officials have additional pause, given that firmer inflation number we had, given the firmer jobs and growth numbers we've seen. >> thank you, steve. steve liesman. our next guest sees a high risk market environment for the next ten days. stuart kaiser is with us. obviously, the election is a big part of that, so, how are investors positioning themselves? >> look, i think the last couple weeks, we've seen invest attorneys lightning up on risk going into the election. not just the election as we talked about, payrolls, et cetera. i think it's considered a big enough event. i know oldodds and polling have

moved, but this is basically a 5 50/50 event. if you look at put skew on the s&p has risen, the price of call options on the vix have risen. people are overlaying positions with the big event. >> the risk is not necessarily who wins or who loses, the risk is not knowing, is that right? >> yeah, i think the risk is not knowing. i think generally speaking, if you talk to investors, they'd like to avoid a sweep scenario. both candidates have some -- some policies that the market doesn't love, and if you get a split government, i think that's, you know, where most people want to end up at this point. >> we had the conversation, tim thinks the yields are going higher. where do you come down -- they moved 60 basis points in the ten-year from the low to where they are now. i think they continue to go higher. market doesn't seem to care. >> the market doesn't care. it's probably 70% of the move i would say comes from the growth data, maybe an arce lair part from the election, but again, intelligent people kind of disagree.

and that's why markets don't care. our view on yields, it's the why that matters, and we saw that fur 18 months before july, which is, if you get strong economic data, positive growth surprise, rate cuts get pushed out, rolling recession risk gets roll into the future, equities are fine in that environment, and that's why you're seeing the performance you are. >> it's actually a pretty benign environment, after ten days from now? >> yeah, if it wasn't for the election, i think you'd look at the payrolls report, the gdp numbers, inflation, i know, was an upside surprise the last couple of months, but frankly, the fed would tell you, we're on a slowing trend on that side of things. so, if i wasn't for the election, you'd probably have risk to put on. if the election resol vpves its in an orderly fashion, and that might be a big if, there's risk to be added. and the backdrop supports that. >> stuart, let's talk about positioning then. what's fascinating to me, first of all, that financials have probably one of their largest overweights in a long time. i would go back even just to

tech, seems to me, one of your competitors saying underweight is the widest levels in five years at minus 4.3, driven by a lot of below benchmark positions in semis and hardware. that seems extraordinary to me, and the fact the market's doing what it's doing. so, comment either on the positioning, or is this great news for the markets? >> i would agree with the sentiment. i think the sentiment on tech, or the bar for tech is lower this quarter than it probably has been in at least a year. we've seen renewed interest, i think, in the software and internet side of things, at the expense and kind of hardware and semis, so, the way you describe that data is how we're feeliing flows through the system. you remember last quarter, you had nvidia put up $30 billion on 75% evenues, 75% margins, that was considered a miss, right? so, i think the bar is set a little lower this time, and that's healthy, going into earnings. >> we were talking with steve about probabilities of fed cuts. does that -- obviously it matters, but does it really matter if it's 25 now, 25 later,

pause now, 25, i mean, in the grand scheme of things? >> in the grand scheme of things, it might not, but next week, it definitely will matter. so, look, would the fed take back 50, i think they probably wouldn't. their view is, they are very restrictive to begin with. they are convinced inflation is trending the way they want it to and they want to get themselves back to neutral. and there's no way they're going to admit a mistake either way. look, a 25-basis point cut here or there, i don't think is as big an issue. it's the cumulative number of cuts that are priced in over an extended period of time. the market is expected 25 next week. market is probably going to get 25 next week unless something really outlandish happens. and this labor market print is tricky. our economists are only at 90k. you have strike impact, you have weather impact, you had a very low response rate to the last payrolls report, so, that 254 from last month is going to get maybe not as much attention, but significant amount of attention this time. >> volatility. >> yeah.

definitely. >> stuart, thank you. good to see you. julie biel, what's your take on rates and when we should start caring? >> well, what i think is so interesting, right, is if you paid only attention to what the fed was doing and that's really what the market was doing, you would actually forget how strong the u.s. consumer has been and how it's just powered right over the top of anything that jerome powell can do. and i think the same will be true both directions, going up and down. what really matters, genuinely, is just the health and strength of the consumer. the thing that i wonder about with rate cuts is, i know there's so much pent up demand in housing and that is the place where the consumer has most of their wealth tied up. if they think that rate cuts are really on the horizon, they're going to wait. they're going to wait even longer. if they think that it's going to take them longer, they may allow themselves to make the move ahead of time and wait to refinance. so, those -- that's a dynamic that's a little uncertain. >> i'm going to say a name to you, melissa -- >> okay. >> tim, help her.

maureen mcgovern. >> tim? >> there's got to be a morning after, is the song? >> got to be a morning after. >> this is live. this wasn't planned. >> no, not at all. >> steve mentioned the regret the morning after. and that just -- >> something you want to talk about -- >> never experienced that, tim. >> is this related to a trade? i thought you were going to talk about the election -- >> the regret of 50-basis points is related to a trade, because they've bridge onholed themselves. >> maybe they can pull up a chart versus the ten-year yield versus s&p 500. last time, in the spring, it was 4.6%, the s&p wut as just above 5,000. now, we're at 5,800. folks were convinced they were going to go on this rate-cutting cycle. if rates are going up and they can't help themselves with what's going on here, i think the s&p is probably too exp expensive right now. yeah, you can point to the growth, but it's really kind of

leveling off. if rates go higher, it's going to be a headwind. coming up, driving into a big week of earnings, with all the details on ford what the automaker had to say and what is moving the stock next. and wtaiwan semi hameh ing shipments. what could be a concern. "fast money" back in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee right here on cnbc.

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welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on ford. shares are tanking as the company offers weak guidance for the year. they're down by about 5% right now. they beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, though. phil lebeau has been speaking with the cfo in just the last hour. he joins us now with the details. phil? >> and melissa, cfo john lawler is now doing the analyst call. he's about 20 minutes into the call, along with ceo jim farley. they're discussing the quarter. as you mentioned, it was a mixed bag here. yes, they beat on the top and bottom line in the third quarter. warranty kolss costs are improv. that will keep them from having

higher earnings for the full year. and there's the question of what to expect in terms of the full year ebit. if they're now saying they're at the low end of the guidance, $10 billion, instead of $10 to $12 billion. commercial vehicles is really carrying the water for this company. they earned $1.81 billion in the quarter. i.c.e., $1.62 billion. and the ev losses, that's an improvement, compared to the second quarter. $1.22 billion. here's john lawler when we talked with him. >> our top line's doing better than we had expecting. on strong volume and mix, especially in ford pro. pricing is doing better than the industry overall. we're also seeing cost reductions come out, we've taken $2 billion of cost out in material, manufacturing and freight costs, as we committed to do this year, but we are seeing headwinds overall this year in both warranty costs and inflationary costs for our joint venture partner in turkey, which raises the cost of our vans in europe.

>> as you look at shares of ford, over the last month, a couple of notes here. the q-3 ev loss per vehicle, the loss per ev they sold, it dropped under $40,000. it's now down to $38,250. improvement. the trend is improving towards lowering their losses. but when you look at overall inventory, this is part of the reason the stock's under pressure. 91-day supply. that is higher than ford would like. higher than people in the industry would like. ford is still optimistic they will have a solid fourth quarter, though volumes are not going to be terribly robust overall. >> phil, thank you. phil lebeau. interesting, they just gave guidance in july, so, this is a deterioration in a span of a few months here. guy? >> what's happening, i think, gm and ford are finally decoupling after a long time. outside of adam jonas and gm who has a $42 price target, you saw a lot of analysts raise their price target. so, what i make of it is, gm's

actually operating better and ford not so much. you know, ford's been stuck in the mud now and gm is breaking out, so, that's how i read this entire thing. >> i tell you what, i think that decoupling has been all year. 51% performance year to date. and some of this is -- ford continues to tell us they need to restructure their business, there's a lot of things that have been wrong about how they have been set up. and we're still waiting for more of that. but back in july, $10 to $12 billion was the guide. so, from that, you were expecting $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter, now $1.9 billion. these are big, big changes from a time, if the problem is the company hasn't been able to forecast their business, this sounds like the same old story. i love gm here and i think it's going higher. >> phil just mentioned that the loss per vehicle ev has gotten below $40,000. inventories are too high. you watch the football, right? >> all the time. >> i saw these ford commercials where they're talking about evs, talking about free installation and free fast chargers to your home, it looks like they're

trying to get rid of that inventory. once they do, they probably move more towards the plug-in hybrids, which seem to be the trick for the next few years. >> you had a ford ev. >> i loved it. that was a great kaerp. by the way, the nypd are driving those things. >> electric mustangs? >> the ford mustang mach-e. >> bad ass. >> pretty cool. >> getreat car. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. trouble in the semi space. the chips of one giant found where they shouldn't be. the me cue yard processor discovery, and what it means for global relations, next. plus, about a week out from election day, and some stocks seem to be trading like there's already a winner. the names making moves, as both candidates make a final push for the white house. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of taiwan semi dropping today on a report that it is suspending shipments to chinese chip designer after a chip was found on a huawei a.i. process

sore. huawei has been restricted from buying the technology since 2020. this underscores this close tie to china we've been highlighting as a potential risk to the taiwan semi story. >> still probably cheap on valuation. and we've talked about it, probably one of the five most important companies in the world. it trades that way, but this is the risk that we talked about. unfounded, by the way, for quite some time, but you saw today at least a glimpse of the possible downside in all these semi names. >> there are some reports that the ceo -- actually, the founder was quoted as saying, basically, the free trade of semis has died, julie, speaking about these sort of trade restrictions, all over the world when it comes to where these chips can be sold, et cetera. and the future growth could actually be challenged because of it. do you buy into that? or is it just the taiwan semi story? >> i think it's -- i think it's probably just a taiwan semi story for now. i think it highlights the u.s. government recognizes that these are really strategic assets, particularly in their

applications for a.i. it just doesn't want to be caught in a situation where that technology gets out of their hands. you know, i think it's been disa disappointing. in china, their ability to be able to recreate the semiconductor market that we have, it really hasn't been possible for them. and i think that there is a lot of recognition that this is a competitive advantage, not just for companies, but really for our economy broadly speaking. so, i think the u.s. government will crack down pretty heavily on this to make sure it never happens again. >> yeah, and so, when we talk about all these kind of hot warps that we have going on in the world, this economic war that we have with china is really, you know, i think the chips are at the, you know, forefront of that. and i don't think it's going to slow down any time soon. we all knew what was going on for awhile. this kind of puts that sort of geopolitical risk as far as china and taiwan, i think, at the forefront right here. so, again you i think that -- let's see how this election shapes up. i think some of the behavior out of the chinese hope that maybe there's a continuation of the current administration, rather

than one that appear to be a bit more divisive the last time trump was in office. >> it's fascinating where if you look at the news headlines around taiwan semi, including their operating profit, where they've guided, and where they had very positive things to say and suddenly some questions around asml and their core business. taiwan semi outside of these headlines is the one that seems to be chugging along. right now, i'm buying weakness. coming up, we are about a week away from election day, and there's been a big runup in some names leading up to the vote. and financial stocks leading the s&p 500 today. what our traders make of the big bump in banks when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks kicking off the week in the green. the dow jumping 273 points. amle apple rising almost a percent. the new a.i. system coming to the latest iphone, some of the early limited features include writing tools, the ability to

remove objects from photos. crude oil getting crushed today, after iranian energy facilities were undamaged during an israeli attack over the weekend. boeing launching a stock offering that could raise up to $22 billion, as the plane maker's machinist strike lingers on. and more afterhours action. shares of vf corp surging. the company declaring a quarterly dividend. and boot barn heading in the other direction, dropping after earnings came in in line with expectations. the company announcing its ceo will be stepping down to take the helm at ross stores. and keurg dr. pepper dropping after hours. meantime, trump media shares jumping more than 20% today, following former president donald trump's campaign rally at madison square garden this weekend. the truth social parent closing at its highest level since the end of may. other proxies for the trump campaign also on the move.

tesla, run by trump supporter elon musk hitting its highest 52-week highs before pulling back. and bitcoin higher as trump champions the use of crypto. so -- our producer kavitha termed an acronym for the trump trade, tbd. tesla, bit koipt, and djt. she followed the rules, too, by the way. >> good for her. >> there's -- that's good -- as good inside for investors, as it becomes clearer and clearer, a little less than a coin flip at this point, it's better for the markets. >> well, i think the market is certainly started to try to price in some outcome here, a and -- but that's what's going on in the tbd trade. i would argue gold is a tbd trade, too. i think there's a dynamic where people are concerned about dynamics around, we talked about the deficit, we talked about some volatility on the global basis, but yes, it's -- as we

get closer to the elections, i would say this for the market, it does feel as if the market, which doesn't like uncertainty, feels like it has some certainty, and that is whapart what's going on here. >> i think regardless of the outcome, i think yields go higher, means treasuries go lower. bitcoin, to me, is clearly trading on the back of a perception that former president trump is going to be re-elected. >> yeah, so, it's interesting about the djt. it's got a $9.4 billion market cap right now, fidelity marketed its stake in twitter down to $9.4 billion. so, just think about that, what's going on between these social media sites. i think djt has less than a million dollars in revenue or something like that. so, that is serving, clearly, as just a prediction market. big bank stocks jumping with the financial sector leading the s&p 500 higher. citigroup, goldman sachs, bank of america among the biggest gainers. julie? >> this is fascinating to see

financials leading as aggressively as they have been, you know, we're kind of curious to see how the regionals talk about their books. most people are still a little bit worried about the commercial real estate exposure that is there. these banks are powering through in a way that i don't think anyone could have expected. i would say that if you look at earnings writ large, so far, i think we've probably got 40% of the s&p that's reported. it's really been a little bit meh, aside from the banks, and so, i think that's just what's driving the attention and the energy, just like the mag seven did at the beginning of the year. >> citi was a real outperforming today. >> it was. and the money sent baernings overall, if you look at the big three that are not jpmorgan. wells fargo is up 20% over the last month. i look at this rally, and again, banks that i think are breaking out, you're mow taking through that svb low of may of '23. this has been a long time in coming. it's a combination, the consumer we're in, and i think it continues. >> you can add a couple of

valu valuations. you put it up to 15 1/2, 16, and you're talking about a stock that's been trading at all-time highs. good for david solomon, by the way -- >> dj sol. >> he's no longer. >> let him be now. >> probably spins at some private parties. >> i'm sure. >> the only thing, to guy's point, about the goldman and the morgan, and we've been talking about this, a lot of companies are waiting on m and a, that's where you want to be, morgan and goldman. >> especially after the election, we have some clarity and we have a little bit more clarity on interest rates, julie. we should see those line items in the businesses improve. >> yeah, i agree. we own a small boutique, and i think they have been talking about how swollen their pipeline is, and, you know that's just one of those situations where they're waiting for more clarity and a lot of companies want an understanding of who is going to be in charge as a president, and also, where interest rates are going, and i think at least we

can get some clarity on one. should see more deals coming to market, because a lot of these private equity companies, their books are old, like, they are -- the vintages on a lot of these deals, they really need to move them for their lps. coming up, looks like meat. is back on the menu. excuse us, as we just -- >> commercial break. >> sales of the mcdonald's quarter pounder continue. how will last week's stoppage weigh on the company's outlook? answers next.

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uh huh! see that's how you hold up a trophy. trust me. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. i hope you're hungry. i'm glad i brought my own dinner. uh huh. welcome back to "fast money." the sizzle is back at mcdonald's, as the fast food giant gets ready to put its quarter pounder back on the menu. this as the company is set to report earnings tomorrow morning. kate rogers has more. hey, kate. >> melissa, analysts are looking for eps of $3.20 adjusted on revenues of $6.82 billion for the third quarter for mcdonald's.

same-store sales projected to fall 0.6%, but increase by 0.5% in the u.s. international operated markets and developmental licensed markets are thought to see a 1.2% loss. they've said consumers would continue to feel strapped and higher costs of living, particularly in u.s. markets. mcdonald's, remember, extended its value platform through the end of the year with its $5 meal, and expected to continue a value platform in 2025 that's yet to be revealed. we will hear from executives on two key topics. first, how the mcchicken launch is performing, and how the e. coli outbreak has impacted sales so far. mcdonald's set to start serving quarter pounders again in the 900 locations that pulled the burger. it will be served without onions as the investigation continues.

the outbreak did sicken 75, killed one per the cdc, and will likely have some bearing on consumer sentiment around the brand. the stock is down close to 6% since the outbreak last tuesday, up next fractionally year to date. melissa? >> kate, thank you. kate rogers. no onions, still, on that baby. but still, it's great that it's back in the mix and that's going to certainly alleviate a lot of concern. >> i'm not going to tell you that this hasn't been a major event, but right now, i would say if it is this contained dynamic, i think life will go on, and i realize a lot of people have been affected here, i don't want to be callus here. wait to point out the stock. the sales numbers for mcdonald's are going to be their highest since 2014. so, i would love to buy weakness. right now, we're not getting it. >> when the news story came out, the stock was trading $290. i was definitely concerned and i thought the stock would trade lower. tim said to hang in there, that was right.

they handled this extraordinarily well. it was textbook, in terms of crisis management. good for them. so, maybe it sets up really well. but i'll tell you one that also reports this week, look at shake shack and the move it's had right up against a prior all-time high, trading at 100 times next year's numbers with maybe 30% eps growth. this is the deep end of the pool, i think you have to do something into earnings you and something to do is trim long positions. >> tradings 52-week highs and it looks like it's about to break out. a consumer that is obviously under a little bit of pressure, there's no value in their meals over there, so, it's interesting that you have one going one way, one going the other, at least -- both stocks were trading near 52-week highs also, but shake shack looks like -- that's a beat and raise, they're age to take some share that's off to the races. >> international should be a concern for mcdonald's, with its presence in china, dpz, when it reported, weak international sales. >> it's amazing how we're kind of giving these companies that

saw china as a growth engine, and mcdonald's was the first name that came to mind, but they're getting a bit of a pass. i still think it's about u.s., same-store sales are clearly, you know, holding serve here, and that's where i think the market is going to take their cues. right now, we can give china a pass. coming up, it's not all about the magnificent seven. the nontech names our traders think are still worth watching rngsng this busy week of th at is next. more "fast money" in two.

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xfinity mobile. now xfinity internet customers can buy one line of unlimited and get one free for a year. welcome back to "fast money." it's big tech earnings week, and we'll have more on that this week, but we're going to turn our focus to the other names reporting. we asked our traders for the one nonmag seven name they are watching, so, guy, which one? >> caterpillar, for more. obviously very economically sensitive. look at the chart, though, of the chart over the last couple years. lower left, upper right, in a meaningful way. trading like a tech stock. multiple is reasonable, but you don't really have the eps growth or the revenue growth to back it up. and if the economy is slowing the way i think it is, i think you're going to first start feeling it in a name like caterpillar. the stock has been amazing. valuation is compelling, but this is what i want to watch. >> julie, which are you watching? >> ah, on halloween, which is coincidentally, my birthday --

>> ah. >> i don't think surprises people at all. >> interesting. >> when they meet me and definitely when i'm mad at them, it doesn't surprise them, but lemaitre is a small cap business, really nice profitability, expanding margins, dividend. it's really well positioned and i'm curious to see what they say about the health care market, which has been pretty choppy. >> dan? >> ah, on october 31st, that would be halloween, also -- >> boo. >> and julie's boothday. >> i see what you did there. >> uber reports. and this is really interesting to me, the performance has been great. the stock gapped up. it looked like a beautiful breakout the day after the robotaxi event, from elon musk, and i think the idea there was that they're not going to have a whole heck of a lot of worries about that thing coming any time soon. uber has partnered with waymo, they have a lot of trials going on. this has given all those gains back, so, to me, this one, earnings are inflecting, it's traded 33 1/2 times next year's

earnings, they're going higher. uber looks interesting here. >> tim? you didn't play the game right. >> shocking. >> you couldn't pick just one. you have two or more? >> snap. fireworks, can you be sure. the moves for this stock over the last four quarters have been nothing for the faint of heart. but let's keep moving. paypal, which is the p in blicep, i think there's a story here where alex chris, don't call me peter chris -- >> he was the drummer for kiss. >> obviously. >> this is a turnaround story. this is a story of improving margins. venmo's got new life. there's deals with competitors, there's deals with amazon. a higher margin story, and i like paypal. >> gene simmons is actually on this show. >> he's been all over the network. for sure. >> he's obviously a member of kiss. can you name one more member? >> no. >> paul stanley. ace freeley, back in the new york groove. we all are. >> the more you know. up next, final trades.

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final trade time. julie biel? >> you know, i really like moelis, based on the aforementioned pipeline. >> dtim? >> estee lauder. they're going to have a new ceo. does the market like that it's not staying in the family? i think so, but who knows. we'll see. >> dan? >> yeah, we talk a lot about consumer. target, interesting to me. they guided up a couple months ago when they reported. so, that one into the holiday

season. >> guy? >> the show is created inspiration for tim's halloween costume this thursday. >> really? >> i know what you're going to be. baseball in the bronx tonight, by the way. and gilead continues to trade higher. >> do you know what you're going to be? >> i don't rlly eaknow, but kno. but judging by some of the scatological humor tonight -- >> "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc newsom or tweet me @jimcramer. you can't make up these moves. i'm talking about the big runs, runs that raise