2024. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and right now, it looks like things are a little bit higher for the equity markets. dow futures up 20. nasdaq up 30. s&p futures up close to 5. this does come after gains across the board after yesterday's session. the dow was up 273 points. the s&p and nasdaq up .25% of 1%, but continues to tick higher. that is the same story with the treasury yields, too. take a look right now and, you are right, 4.30 is where the ten-year.

the 4.14 for the two-year. these have gone up since the fed cut rates. the 30-year at 4.52. crude oil saw the biggest drop in quite a while yesterday. $67.97. for the week, down 5.7%. that big drop came after we saw the israeli retaliation against iran did not include oil fac facilities. that came as a bit of relief to traders. yesterday's session down 6%. if you check out bitcoin this morning, you will see bitcoin is above 71,000. $71,231. for the week, that suppis up 5% the week. >> djt, closed at 47.36. indicated 52 to 52.50. >> we will see if the markets are better predictors than the

polls. >> up from 16. i feel that was yesterday we were talking about it. >> here's the question about that. what is that? meaning -- >> we were talking about that at 16. i don't know what it is at 16. i don't know what it is at 52. all i know it was at 16 and now 52. >> what is that? you are making a bet on what? that people are going to use the service more? >> what was gamestop? what was that a bet on? short sellers getting squeezed? >> that was a different bet. i imagine this iis a bet. >> iimagine donald trump's election chances. >> i don't know what it is, is the point. >> the fortunes of the company are in better place with him as president? >> the absolute low you got. 16. >> i know. i'm not debating that. i'm saying do you believe more companies, big companies, are going to advertise on truth

social because they want to curry favor with the president? not that more people are using the ervice. there's no evidence. >> we watched stocks over the years with zero earnings all over the place. i don't know what it means. it is not based on multiple revenue or multiple to anything. >> if it is not based on anything, is it a proxy for anything? that's all i'm saying. >> the financials have gone. bitcoin has go than. >> it looks like -- >> that's -- >> bitcoin is the argument about why's gone up. >> i think both of them are useless. >> no. you argue -- >> you think bitcoin is not a stored value. >> we can debate all that. >> i don't debate it. >> the point is if you believe that president trump is going to be become president. >> how do you connect the

points? >> on bitcoin because you think there is less regulation or less regulations to allow more people to have access to it, that makes sense. i'm saying does this make sense? >> i don't know whether a trump presidency translates to better future business for that truth whatever the hell it is. i don't know or not. it seems people are making that assumption. it's just been crazy. wasn't that a month ago? it was a month ago at 16. let's tell you what's on squawk planner. we have pfizer on tap and mcdonald's and jetblue and paypal report before the opening bell. after the close, alphabet and visa and amd and chipotle. interim ceo will be on closing bell overtime following that report. we get august home price index and the report on job openings

and labor turnover. shares of ford are lower. earnings of 49 cents a share. 2 cents above expectations. auto estimates. cfo john lawler said higher inflation and warranty costs have his profits. it reported losses of $1.2 billion in the quarter. that is, though, less than it lost last year largely due to lower volumes and cost cuts. oh, that's why. they lost less -- >> because their manufacturing in cutting. >> right. they cut back a little on the business, so they lost less. that's not a great commentary.

we are also watching shares of bp. the energy giant reporting the weakest earnings in four years on lower crude prices and weaker refining margins. oil prices were down more than 17% in the third quarter. that came amid concerns about the outlook for the global oil demand. the company said it is committed to announcing a further $1.75 billion share buyback in the third quarter, but will review the guidance and including the expectations for buybacks in 2025. the part of the problem has been an oil glut we seem to be in. there's a lot of supply and not as much demand as anticipated. that really brings the question of what will happen with energy stocks depending who wins the election, too. >> it's supply. iranian oil out there. russian oil. al all on the market. boeing says it has raised $21 billion in one of the l

largest sales by a public company. it sothe cash influence will he boeing offset the $4 billion fourth quarter cash burn tied to the union strike. it's a big deal. they need the cash. this will give them cushion. for the one week, that stock is off 6%. meantime, reports saying 200,000 people canceled the digital subscription to the washington post after jeff b bezos' decision to block the endorsement of vice president kamala harris. that would be 8% of the paid circulation of 2.5 million subscribers. in the opinion piece last night, the paper's owner, jeff bezos, said the presidential endorsements do nothing to tip the scales in the election. they create bias and non-independence. the decision not to endorse a

candidate is the step in the right direction to regain the lost trust in media. i don't know the full reaction. it's been back and forth. i think one of the things he said he wishes the timing had been different. he wished that if they were going to make this decision, they hadn't made it in this moment as opposed to if they could have made it six months earlier or a year so it wouldn't be viewed in these other ways. it was a fascinating piece. i don't know if you had an opportunity to read it. >> i didn't. >> it really was quite extraordinary. >> he said he would hire a bunch of conservative journalists. >> he did say that. >> not in that. another story. >> i don't think that was going on. what i thought was so interesting about the piece is he said years ago he written that he said, you know, owning the post is going to be a complexifier for me. he said in the piece, he said what i also realize is i am a

complexifier for the washington post. he goes on a very interesting sort of dialogue about it. he said my wealth and businesses, inn various bring, if you look at the appearance perception of conflicts of other things from the outside, you can make the argument that i am not necessarily the ideal owner of the post. if you believe that given my wealth and businesses, i can be a bull work for independence, that is one side of it. if you think i'm a big conflict, i'm the other. >> do you think he regrets making that purchase? >> i don't know. i don't know about that part. i don't think so because he makes a very invesvociforous argument. i actually thought -- i found the piece convincing. i know there were other people who had, you know, less

convincing. >> you don't think something needs to change from mainstream media in the way its covered all of the issues now in the american public? >> to me, the most interesting part is, he said not only do you have to get it right, people have to believe you've gotten it right. >> right. >> i don't think he would tell you that they're getting it wrong. he would tell you that people believe that the media is getting it wrong. that's actually a very big distd disti distinction. he believes on a principle basis the reason he did not make an endorsement was he didn't want people to think he is tipping the scales one way or the other. >> it would make a difference six months ago before two candidates in the race. >> the media bias and the mainstream media and the journal is as plain as the nose on your face. it has the media down to 5% approval. >> he talks about that.

>> i hope this is the beginning. every time you say democracy dies in the darkness in reference to that paper, it makes my chortle. i have to laugh out loud. god bless him. the only problem is he looks like he's worried about a relationship with trump. it looks like he's worried about his other ownership of other entities like so many people are worried about enemies within. jamie dimon now is totally backed off from anything. >> do you think that is a good thing for america. talk about silencing people. former president trump talks about free speech and one of the things that's happen, i would rain argue, as a result of demonstrable limitations is that. >> allowing him not to endorse? >> no. i'm saying you have all of the business executives who used to

be very public with their views. we talked about warren buffett last week. we talked about jamie dimon who used to donate to candidates under his own name. bill gates. other people. all sorts of people who have engaged in the political process in the past, but i would argue to you in a post, i would say governor desantis world, and perhaps now, if we move into a former president trump world, one of the reasons they are not actively talking about their own views is because they fear retribution. >> i think they fear retribution from customers who disagree from viewpoints on these things. you alien ate. >> it is not trump is bad. they are scared what he will do. >> trump is vocal and goes back to the companies. think of all of the companies he targeted over time.

the big issue with the ceos is you don't want to lose your customers. >> republicans buy sneakers, too. the big change in 2020, no one in the corporate world felt comfortable saying they might vote for trump. now you have a few in silicon valley. most of them are not saying anything. there are a few that have come forward at great peril to their business. i think it goes both ways. i think there could be retribution from either side. i don't think at this point you have to worry about retribution from kamala harris' side. >> who knows? we're a week away from the election. >> i know. i believe the betting markets a lot more than other people. it's 3 to 1. >> are the betting markets a better proxy than the polls in the several elections? >> nobody knows. it could be crazy if all these things, bitcoin, djt, all of the things.

they could all be wrong. they could all be wrong. this time when people wouldn't say trump last time and that padded his business, maybe they are already out. maybe they are saying it. >> you can argue the polls overrotated in 2022. >> and they could be over-rotating now. >> you know what? a week from now we will have a better idea. >> they almost go like days. coming up, google par parent alphabet set to rorept after the bell. and kevin hassett will join us in the next hour. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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it's from the company with 99.9% network reliability. plus advanced security. let's power on! power on with the leader in connectivity. powering possibilities. comcast business. power's out. busy week ahead for big tech. alphabet set to report after the bell. joining us is paul meeks. harvest investment. you are not really that excited about google, but for fresh money, although you own it? >> if you are a self respecting tech investor, you probably have to own it. there's one thing about the alphabet story i like very much is waymo. i think at the end of the day, waymo will lead autonomous

driving, not tesla, although there will be plenty of room for both. the way i look at alphabet and amd, the two tech companies reporting this evening, i think they will be fine. i don't see a risk of a miss, but as it pertains to alphabet despite my love for waymo, there are creepy things going on. you have a regulatory onslaught which i think will come to fruition and maybe break up parts of that company and then the bigger threat longer term is native a.i. search. joe, you talked what meta is doing to get into the space. if alphabet is disinter mediated at all, given the fact they own the whole enchilada -- i don't expect any miss. i think guidance is solid.

digital advertising should be all right. how do they address these two threats? i would rather wait on investing until after the news clears. >> that's a lot of names that we can talk about, paul, but it's kind of interesting your love or your preference for waymo has you ready to short tesla. i like that you say once its upward momentum has ended, will you let us know? how will you know when that happens? you say it's not going to happen until after the election and you think it could get a bounce if the former president were to win. >> yes, this is how i play it. i'm not sold on the fundamentals. i follow closely the we robot event they had in hollywood and even their report. if you believe in tesla, you have to believe that they are

going to say everything they talked about since 2016 about autonomous driving. i don't know if i necessarily believe that or even if it does happen, those goodies are going to be much further out in the future than people think. we have a connection between trump and musk. so, if you believe trump is going to win the election, i think we'll have some good feelings about tesla and musk. remember, this is a company that is a culture leader and that stock will pop. when it pops, joe, because i made the fundamental call, i'll look for a top in the stock price and look for trading volume to dry up which indicates to me that the buying has been exhausted. then i'll gladly short it so it doesn't go any more in the realm of the fundamental analysis. i'm looking at the stock price

chart and it will tell me when. >> have you shorted tesla ever? 12 . >> yeah. >> have you made money when you shorted it? >> yeah, i did. >> amd. you have some interesting comments there. legacy cpu business is not great and i don't know, if you were going to play a.i., it's like why bother? why figure out if amd is going to make inroads? go ahead and buy nvidia? >> i expect amd to be a strong number two player. all the customers want to have a strong second source. they don't want to be beholden to nvidia. the way i look at it, nvidia is a pure play. amd, it's a very good company and well run under dr. lisa su. it's a blend.

the blend of the cpu business ain't great. i would prefer in this valuation nvidia to amd. >> i was looking at your buy list. people might like -- like to know that. let me just see which ones. which ones -- which ones are your favorites, you think? i think you like netflix, you like meta, micron, nvidia, taiwan semi. >> out of that list, i would be happy to share with anybody. total transparency. probably nvidia and taiwan semiconductor within semis. i'm actually very interested in picking up some asml under $700 a share. i think that one is underdone on the down side. i also, joe, hope to confirm a lot of my these on the stocks

this week and into next week. >> i know nacho libre. >> that is the amazon of south america. >> okay. that's the way i'll think of it from now on. nothing to do with nacho libre. >> i think kate rooney has done you stuff on that. >> thanks, paul. when we come back, stern warning from starbucks to its corporate employees. it's asking them to get back to the office or you might not have an office left. we'll talk about it. plus, jpmorgan wants its money back from the atm glitch that went viral on tiktok. those stories and more when "squawk box" comes back after this.

welcome back to "squawk box." starbucks telling corporate staff they could be fired if they don't come to work in the office at least three days per week. according to an internal memo. in january, they will hold workers accountable if they don't provide by the policy up to and including separation. the company's ceo brian niccol telling employees they should work when they need to to get the job done. he thought that place was usually the office. >> more and more companies saying that. in the meantime, jpmorgan chase beginning to sue customers who stole thousands of dollars from the atms from a technical

glitch. it was popularized on tiktok and other social media platforms in august. people wrote checks to themselves and withdrew the money before the check bounced using the glitch to get around the typical limits. one case in houston involves a man who owes jpmorgan $290,000 after withdra drawling ill gott funds. when we come back, a busy morning of earnings ahead. pfizer and mcdonald's among the names reporting in the next half hour. we will bring you those numbers and reaction on wall street. as we head to break, let's take a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers.

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all right. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box." we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we were up 20 points a half hour ago. we are down 13 points. s&p futures up barely. nasdaq up 23. it comes after gains for the averages yesterday. treasury yields have continued to pick up. in fact, this morning, the ten-year below 4.30. there it is again. 4.30. the two-year at 4.14. we watched the yields climb ever since the fed started cutting rates last month. bitcoin prices up as well. it continues the trend for the week. right now, 7$71,706. it is up 67% for the year to date. meantime, the biden administration finalizing a new

set of regulations to limit investment in the chinese tech and the military sectors. those rules tied to the 2023 executive order proptecting u.s security in advancements in a.i. and semiconductors and quantum computing. when we come back, mike allen will join us for the live stretch on the campaigns. he has provocative new thoughts and innovation to bring us ts hi morning. reminder, you can follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app and listen any time. we're coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." former new york mayor michael bloomberg is making a donation

for kamala harris' campaign. bloomberg donated late in election cycles because he believes he can find gaps and unmet needs. this after other donors place their bets. we are exactly one week away from the presidential election. joining us right now is axios co- founder mike allen. >> good morning, andrew. >> impart some wisdom to us. what will happen here? >> two things. the last time i talked with you, i said republicans felt they were winning and democrats felt they were blowing it. the first half is more true today than ever. we have a story on axios today saying that republicans are all about projecting an air of inn evi evident built. that is what the garden rally was about. they believe they're winning. >> that's not a strategic thing.

that's a thing, thing. >> a top official who has been with trump the whole journey said we have never seen the data this good. democrats -- >> what data are they looking at? >> state by state. >> are these pollings or early voter turnout? >> both. public polling, everything within the margin of error. it has been a little bit trumpy. that is why this optimism they're projecting could be foolhardy. it is a coin flip election. we had a story of coin flip america. until the last day. it would be a landslide. one or more could win five swing states. i tell you, democrats were down in the dumps the last time we visited. they're feeling better. one is they think that the madison square garden rally might have been a real own goal.

latino voters matter so much to trump. this is really broken through there. who knew pennsylvania had a big pocket of puerto rican voters. the trump campaign know that now. >> how do you blow it with that much money? people talking about $50 million they have given her and over $1 billion. she bought every ad you can buy between here and there. what is she screwing up with all that money? >> that's one of the reasons that democrats are more optimistic is opportunity at 7:30 she is doing her event from the white house in the back drop. i'm told she wants to help voters visualize her in the white house. >> is that legal? >> voters still say the snap campaign. they want to know her better and you look at it and you see the data on the show every day. the percentage of people 65%

plus who think that america's on the wrong track despite a lot of the macro figures, we see her. that may turn out to be i insurm insurmountable. that is the flip side. they feel optimistic with the turn out machine they have in place and they feel good suburban women will care about reproductive access. >> two questions. one is the implications of the report that you have this morning around the confidence that the trump campaign has is that it is setting up if he were to lose a sort of conspiracy that he really won. can you speak to what that is? >> 100%. the story points out that republicans in building this aura of inn evident built cherry pick their polls and own news to

get the echo chamber to reflect that. that's one of the big problems with this election is axios has written about the shards of glass. the immediate ecosystem we grew up in has shattered. the individual ecosystems don't talk to each other. the maga ecosystem, all they see is good data. what's happening is it sets the stage for them to say this is rigged for them really to believe it's rigged, it will be easier for elon musk who keeps sharing misinformation about ballots and of voting irregularities. it will be easier to say, see, we told you. >> you have to assume the betting sites are just either young republican men or predominately on the betting sites or total denial. there are certain swing states

that are 3-to-1 trump now. not just poly market, but the rpc average is a two touchdown. a team that's down two touchdowns wins all the time. we see that. you feel pretty good about your team with a two-touchdown lead on the betting sites. you haven't mentioned that. they're clearly like this. >> there are signs of big buys going into that. you shake your head. that's true. >> 28 million in paris. that's not going to move a $1 billion market. that's a poly market. >> the betting markets are fascinating and they are part of the shards of glass phenomenon. >> it could be totally wrong. it has been wrong before. >> the reason it's important and you mentioned it is it is one of the examples of how the news is different. whereas before, it was the lead

of the newscaster on the front page means all that. >> bitcoin, djt, financials. the trump trade. it's going to be very surprising as well. >> two other related items while your here. one is the washington post. competitor of yours. the jeff bezos op-ed last night firing back at his critics. what do you think of it? >> two words. jeff bezos. customer first. you look at these cancellation numbers reported by npr. they weren't considering their customer. i can say the endorsement. it is way overplayed. no one would be surprised by the draft editorial about vice president harris.

no one will change the vote on it. that's part of the argument that jeff made in the op-ed that posted overnight. it's in the print paper. >> you don't endorsement? >> we don't. axios is clinical. always clear eyed and fair all sides and connected to all sides. >> you don't have an editorial page. >> that's deliberate. that's part of building trust. >> same thing bezos did. >> they have a totally different piece. the second thing i was going to ask you -- >> people are more likely to trust you. >> what do you think of the argument we were having at the table earlier about business leaders who have decided for whatever reason not to speak out about their political views and that that feels like a shift from a decade or two decades or three decades, generationally, and specifically around this past ten years or maybe this

campaign more so? >> over time, you thought there were secret trump voters. is that still true? >> i think some are. i think some who are voting for harris are scared to say so because they think there's going to be some form of retribution. i think there are so folks who might actually be trump voters worried about what their employe employees think more than the customers. i think what is fascinating this time and it speaks to the than dors endorsement issue. i was saying in a post-desantis, the desantis-disney battle was a watershed. there could be real retribution and business shift. >> andrew, anyone that looks at filibusters and supreme court

stacking and raising corporate rates and raising capital gains, what ceo would be backing kamala harris? >> you should go call those people. >> i will. just looking classically at the way things -- she's the most left-wing we've had since dukakis. >> mike spends time with the ceos. >> who would pick the far left? >> to answer your question. there are secret proclivities. one of the big audiences is internal, their colleagues. we realized in recent years how important the mission of the company, the higher purpose of the company, organization is to the people who work with us and for us. so, when we talk to ceos, our advice is stick to issues that where your company can make a difference and your organization

has credibility and there will be plenty of those. that's why in axios, we put a big emphasis on january 21st. what will happen under the new president with our friends at fsg at the different scenarios with trump running the tables or the democrats running the tables? organizations will not change on novem november 5th, but the 76 days between election day and inauguration day. >> mike allen, thank you. as we head to break, one week from today is election day. cnbc is live all night long on election night. we'll have the results as they come in and reaction from the biggest names in business. all starts at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. if you stay up all night, it starts early here on "sqwk ua box" at 5:00 a.m. the following morning. hopefully we'll have some better

clarity about where things are headed. we're coming right back.

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pfizer reporting earnings of a $1.06 a share, and the revenue well ahead of expectations as well, and full guidance for the full year and the stock is up to $29.60, and it's up 2.5% this morning. when we come back, the ceo

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cyber security firm checkpoint software just out with quarterly results. the company earned $2.25 a share and that came on the revenue of $635 million. and joining us to discuss the results, technology and software ceo. where are you seeing the most demand? >> well, last quarter actually the u.s. markets were relatively strong. we have seen a lot of demand in

the americas, but customers need all sorts of cyber security, for example, email security is growing fast and i think for good reasons. >> back in september you released a report that cyber security attacks on u.s. utilities were up 70% this year. what are we seeing and can you compare this to anything we have seen in the past. is this far more activity than you ever have seen? >> yes, the growth is very high. the growth in america is about 56, 57% growth in cyberattack year after year, and that's something that should alert all of us. >> and those attacks that are coming in, are they more complicated? we have known this is a bit of a cat and mouse game where we put up better security and the bad guys, are they getting better at what they do? >> absolutely. the main thing we should understand is the attacks we are

seeing is fifth generation, and they are getting into the organization and take over from the inside and they do the ransomware. we received almost 60% of the ransomware cases around the world are in america, which shows it's a big target. it's a combination of criminal organization, but we do see a lot of activities that are state-sponsored from all over the world targeting the u.s. >> earlier this year it was a huge issue back in july when crowdstrike had this self inflicted wound. it was a problem with their own programmers that shut down systems everywhere, and delta is suing crowdstrike for it. what happened and what went wrong and who is to blame? >> i think it's a very unfortunate situation.

no company wants to be like that when it shuts down huge parts of the world because of a solve wear bug. unfortunately it can happen to any software, not just cyber security software. it shows the vulnerability -- not the vulnerability but the dependency. what hackers are trying to do is trying to attack their own attacks and create the bugs and they know how to do it and it's a real risk and it should be giving us the reasons to deploy better cyber security because it can have devastating results like with crowdstrike. >> what are you doing with ai and what are you doing to make these protections more efficient and protective? >> ai is a double-edged sword. it can allow people to create

cyberattacks, and we know ai can generate text and computer code and that computer code can be malicious. on the same side the ai is a huge asset for us, the enablers. it can enable us to do all sorts of things that today -- by the way, there's a huge shortage of manpower on cyber ai, and we automated where bots can do a good job, and ai is realizing that and finding patterns and so on. ai is a big risk and a huge opportunity for the cyber security industry. >> we just reported your earnings as you were coming on. we characterized it as inline with expectations and your stock is off 11% on this news and what

is wall street seeing it doesn't like? >> i didn't see it yet but we were in the upper end of the forward projections and we had the matrix, and i watch them pretty good. it's possible that the investors have high expectations from us and i think we should aim high. >> again, so you are surprised as i am by this? i was just looking at the release as you were coming on and there's nothing that would explain to you why this is down as to why there was expectations other than what the street had? >> every single metrics that i showed was good, and all the metrics that are important, i think, are very good financial metrics. >> okay. thank you for coming on this

morning. checkpoint out in line with earnings but the stock is down more than 10%. >> it's even past a quarter, and mcdonald's out with quarterly results, and kate rogers, we don't see anything from the e. coli, right? >> i am sure it would come up on the conference call. the fast-food giant's beat on the top and bottom lines, and the 3.23 adjusted better than the 3.20 estimated. the same stores missing across the board. in the u.s., the sales increased 0.3%. marketing successes like it's collectible growth, and sales found more than anticipated 1.5% drop versus the estimate of down

0.6%, rather. and the international market sales fell, and international develop license market segment sales down 3.5% versus the estimate of 1.2%. a number of markets had negative comp sales driven by the uk and france along with negative comps in china did weigh in on some of the results. the company declared a 6% increase to $1.77 per share. as mentioned it will be the first time we hear from the ceo amid the ongoing investigation into the e. coli in the mountain west states. the company is to resume serving quarter pounders this week and they will be served without onions which are believed to be the source of the e. coli as beef has been ruled out as the

course. >> thank you. we will be watching. it's just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you are watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. i am andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. the dow is off about 53 points. you are looking at the nasdaq up about 13 points and the s&p 500 -- i want to say it's a little in the red. shares of dr horton falling after the results are well below the street's expectations. that was also, as we should mention, below estimates. the homebuilder said rate volatility and uncertainty causing some buyers to stay on the sidelines at least in the near term. look at the stock down at 7.5% in the premarket. let's get over to dom chu who has a look at the morning's premarket movers. >> we will start things off with shares of pfizer which are up

right now strongly. just 3% or so now 2% after reporting a strong top and bottom line beat in the third quarter, and it's also raising its full year revenue and adjusted earnings as well, and the giant is looking to quiet critics out there of the post pandemic strategy, and that stock is up around 3%. bp, meantime, down 2% premarket after reporting its third quarter results. the oil giant weighing down by weaker quarterly markets. that stock is down 14 to 15% so far this year, so bp right now down 2%. we are rounding things out with the trucker, reaching levels

that we have not seen since going back to may. the stock is up 50% for the week, just this week alone. that move is coming ahead of the election, and djt, one of those stocks on the move today. >> back over to you. >> thank you. we will see you in a bit. coming up, the dow snapping a week-long losing streak. we will talk markets after the break. then, one week until election day, we will hear from the chair of the congressional campaign committeesun,, za coming up here after the break on "squawk box." ♪

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let's talk markets, overall markets. steven parker of jpmorgan private back ahead of specialized strategies. i think you are kind of thinking fair value is about where we are right now, and i mean, earnings are if you back out special items, they are up, what, 7%? >> this quarter will get us 7 or 8% earnings growth, and we think about how much the markets have run and we are close to fair value and rather than looking to own the market broadly, we want to target. >> where the s&p right now is in the center or maybe just at the low point of -- your midpoint is where we are almost there. >> yeah, and i think it's

important to recognize just because we are at our target, and that doesn't mean we are looking to significantly reduce risks in our portfolio, and we are creating our shopping list because we are looking at the volatility. >> long-term, you don't think elections matter that much? >> i think, one, elections are incredibly difficult to predict more so and policy matters more than politics and that hard to predict and at the end of the day we think it's a mistake to allow elections to make changes to your long-term portfolio strategy. >> do you think the fed is on the right track? >> i think the move in higher-end rates like what we have seen tells us the market is worried about the re-entry of inflation depending on what policy could come into play, and

there are concerns about long-term debt that could cause higher rates, and we think the fed is on track and we get a cut this month and one more before the end of the year, but it will be important to hear the messaging from the fed about the trajectory into next year. >> you mentioned some things that are worry some, like inflation being reignited. why not take some of these things off the table? why stay in just to stay in? >> we have been having an active dialogue with the clients about rebalancing and not to reduce your levels but anybody who has been diversified in stocks and bonds this year has more stocks than in the beginning of the year because of how the markets

have rallied, and we also see alongside some of those inflation risks positive risks from a growth pertive. making sure you are not moving too far in terms of the other side of the dial around the risk you are taking in portfolio sz where we are comfortable. >> you made the point for bonds that in an easing cycle extending duration at the start is a winning strategy. it hasn't been? >> it has not been so far. we are still very early in a cycle, and one of the things that is important to us is to think long-term. when we are talk extending duration, a lot of that has to do with the large piles of cash that a lot of investors are sitting on. they have been very comfortable making five-plus percent in the current environment. that cash flow is going to move, and if you look back over the easing cycles cash has traditionally underperformed

core bonds and by a pretty meaningful event. we think even that has not been the trade yet we are watching this move in rates potentially adding more to bonds and taking another bite out of the apple. >> you think the total debt where it is, the government will not have any trouble selling into that? >> i think that's a concern that has been making headlines for years if not decades. i still think that the u.s. is looked to around the world as the port of safety. i don't think we are going to haveissues particularly not in the near term around some of those debt fundamentals. >> never debt to gdp of over 100 and headed to 130. there's a breaking point. >> there is a breaking point at some point, and you look at japan and that's not the model we are looking at by any sketch

of the imagination, and with the aging population around the world there's a desire and need for income and the safety that the u.s. government provides in terms of the fixed income market is something that will continue to be attractive even as the debt to gdp levels continue to rise. >> we're safe, and sometimes the rating agencies look at what the debt to rate is, and we are not going to slow or are we going to slow the spending? is that ever going to happen? >> i don't think we do. we think that shifting from the last cycle, which was all about austerity and a focus on monetary policy to a focus on spending and fiscal policy, we think growth will be stronger in the next part of the cycle and if you get government spending, the right type of government spending that can support growth, all of a sudden -- >> like what? >> i think there's going to be a

big focus on infrastructure, things like modernization of the electrical grid. these are things we have neglected for long time and there has been momentum building from a policy perspective to spend more money in these areas and we think it will be a key theme not just in the u.s. but around the world. >> so if you made a shift in equities, what would you shift to? >> one of the things that we think is really interesting is japan right now. that's a story about long-term corporate reform. what we are trying to focus on now is less about the results of the election and who is going to win and what does that mean for policy but rather over the next three to five years what are the markets that have structural tailwinds behind them. in japan, which for a long time has been a market not focussed on shareholder return, and that mind-set has shifted and companies are focussed on shareholder activity and focusing on shareholder return and buybacks and we think the

story in japan is a compelling one, particularly as we see it's still a strong and global growth environment. >> what about the bank of japan? don't they play a large role? >> they do, but what we have seen is market reactions and we saw it earlier with the yen carry trade unwind. that has a significant move in the short-term but markets quickly corrected and over the long-term, policy is not going to be the big story but a corporate fundamental story. >> steven parker from jpmorgan, thank you. and paypal beat estimates, and the revenue falling short of the expectations. it's a bit lighter than analyst expected. the stock, we will say it's holding up but turning red right

now so let's keep our eyes on that one this morning. up next, democratic committee chair, suzan delbene, on the election and what congress may look keli in 2025. later, kevin hassett will join us with trump's stance on the economy and more.

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♪ jetblue reporting a loss of 16 cents a share and that was narrower than the 25 cent loss the street had been expecting. revenue of $3.27 billion ahead of estimates and for the full year, jetblue expect revenue to decrease by 4% to 5%, and that is slightly better than the previous guidance. the airline said its expanding its even more space and extra leg room seats to meet premium travel demand. in the meantime, we are now only one week away until the

election. our next guest is tasked with keeping democratic seats in the house and trying to gain new ones and reworking the tax code in 2025 which is one of the big issues that will be impacted by the election one way or the other, and suzan delbene, a member of the weighs and means tax policy sub committee. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> what is your sense in this moment, not just of the presidential campaign but your ability to keep the house and where you think the senate goes -- >> take the house. >> take the house, and how you think this whole thing plays out? >> well, you know, we are in a very strong position. we have great candidates running across the country. we need to at the time four more seats to take back the majority in the house. >> what does your polling say? >> we're in new york and california where we have opportunities to pick up seats

and alabama and iowa and nebraska, so our map is a little different than the map you might see on the swing states for the presidential or for the senate. we have races there, too, but we also have races in other states that aren't necessarily contested from the senate side or a big focus of the presidential campaign. we have 33 great red to blue candidates out there we need to net for. >> very tight. and even the betting markets are 50/50 right now. f >> there are a lot of closes races and so the focus is making sure we turn out the vote. we think voters are with us and they are with us on policy and they have seen the chaos and disfunction that happened -- >> it will be such a close margin no matter what happens and the republicans have the house and they have not been able to do anything with that because they have holdouts that have not been able to do things,

and why would the democrats still be able to do that? nancy pelosi is still holding things up, but it seems complicated. >> the senate is probably gone. do you think the senate goes -- >> i have strong feelings that we have an opportunity to not only to have president harris and there are close races across the country. it has to get through the house and through the senate and to the president's desk. i think it's important that folks are working to build strong support for policy and that's what the republican majority in the house has failed to do. they can't even get along with each other let alone work across the aisle. >> are you in favor of getting rid of the filibuster?

>> i think we have to figure out a way to make sure we can govern again. >> is that a yes? >> i think it's going to be an important policy to try and figure out -- >> that means d.c. becomes a state, and that means the supreme court gets additional members? >> it's about government policy works in governance, and if policy moves forward and then we need policymakers serious about governing and we don't have that in charge of the house right now, and they can't get along with one another and put us on the brink of a shutdown, of a default and a shutdown again. the only reason we have seen reasonable policies get passed and just basic -- keeping the government funded, is because of the democrats. >> but the truly bipartisan

senators are -- >> what is their recommendation for how we make sure that policy moves forward? >> democratic policy. >> how do you make sure strong policy -- people can debate and i don't think anybody is against sharing or debating ideas, but in the end we have to move forward on policy that helps our country and right now we have folks who are uninterested in moving anything. >> but the parties have diametrically opposed ways that they think we need to move forward and you get rid of the filibuster whoever is in power they will enforce their will. >> what is the proposal to make sure that governance is working, that we have folks and not individual members not trying to block any policy from moving, and how do we make sure that policy works again and governance works again? >> there's a lot of people that don't want a lot of these policies moving forward.

>> i think that folks want to see governance work. i travelled across the country. they are tired of folks saying, you know, pointing fingers or saying something else is preventing something from moving and they want responsible leaders -- >> how do you do that? how do you reach across because it seems like a toxic situation there in congress? >> when i came to congress i felt like government felt divided and now itseems quaint to where it is now. we are in a situation where we have folks, and like i said folks in the majority can't pass basic procedural votes. >> let's get to the big 2025 issue. if the basics can't be dealt with, this tax policy issue, how does that get revolved in any which way? >> we can get it resolved if we have people interested in governing and there are moderates left on the republican

side of the house. >> as jeff bezos said in his op-ed, complain someting is not strategy. >> we need to elect great candidates, and we elect people that want to governor tphurpb and then we have people in d.c. focused on governing and not on being social media you know celebrities but are focussed on policy. >> that may be, and we all may want that and that may not be the reality, so the question is -- >> i want to make sure that's the reality. >> i am sure you do. if that's not the case, if the heavens don't shift in the next year or week rather, which is very unlikely, how do you actually see the tax debate play out? >> i think, first of all, it's an important tax year. i think it's important that we look and have folks that will talk about the core priorities

who want to see fairness, building a strong middle class, making sure that we have a strong economy that has opportunity for everyone. >> what do you think is a fair rate talking about fairness? >> when i say fairness, look across the tax code overall? this is not a one individual policy but the collection and the interaction of the policies. we have a tax code incredibly complicated and you have interactions where you make a change here and it has an atphebga affect in another area. we need to put tax policy in place that provides stability and certainty going forward. >> what do you think is the biggest opportunity to raise funds without hurting growth? >> well, i think we are going to look, obviously, at the tax policy overall. revenue will be part of it. we will look at what the rates are right now and we are also going to look at other

incentives and things that may not give us a return on our investment. i am a former businesswoman. our focus is making sure we get a great return on the investments we make. if we have tax incentives no longer serving us well, then we should look at making sure we change that. that's got to be part of the overall conversation. i think there are key investments we can make that have a long-term affect. i am a huge support of the child tax credit, and that puts our kids -- gives them an incredible future, and imagine what we could do if we put that back in place. >> thank you. appreciate it. coming up, why all roads to the white house may lead through georgia. next week, cnbc will be live all night on election day, and we will have results as they come in and reaction, and that all starts at 7:00 p.m. eastern.

the morning after, what? a special four-hours of "squawk box" starting at 5:00 a.m. eastern? >> yeah, we will be here. >> can't wait. stay tuned. we'll be right back. are a rock. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.

in battleground georgia it could all come down to voters in atlanta and its suburbs. we are joined from atlanta where the business climate in the state could decide the election. megan, good morning. >> good morning, becky. the candidates have been narrowly focused on the atlanta metro area here in the final stretch. while job growth and business growth have been booming in recent years that should typically help an incumbent, but the polls are tilted heavily towards donald trump and one reason is the strong economy is not working for everyone. atlanta is one-third black and

has the highest concentration of black business owners in the country and they are not backing harris at the same level as biden when he won the state four years ago. >> if you look at the current biden/harris administration and even how the economy is going is not that great for the black community. actually with the democrats being in power now, there's going to be some kind of affect to that, and i think that has definitely something to do with it. >> that's not the only story here in atlanta. this state was decided by less than 12,000 votes four years ago and the key to biden winning was not just the proper but the surrounding counties around it. we were in the county seat of lawrenceville, and it's the fastest growing of all of the counties that surrounded atlanta, and it swung big for biden in 2020, and now trump is

trying to compete exactly in the suburbs areas. he was here last week and his goal is to compete there rather than in the more reliably parts of the state where his margins are already huge. his tkpwel is to flip georgia back to red. we were talking with voters yesterday and heard a little bit of everything, and we heard trump support and harris support and heard from some staying home and not voting in november. that also gave us a glimpse of how narrow the margins can be here on election night. >> that has to be the key, though, for both candidates trying to get out the vote. it depends on who shows up at the polls and how much of a turnout they can get from their base? >> absolutely. turnout has been big. 40% of georgians have casts a ballot in early voting, and

voter fraud might be propelling some of the early votes. the early analysis makes it seem like it's controlled by republicans going to the polls in stronger numbers. the harris campaign may have catching up to do. coming up, oil prices are reversing course after yesterday's plunge. we will talk to goldman sachs's head of commodity services. first, homebuilders, d.r. horton stock off about 8%. you are looking at lennar, kb homes and toll brothers looking on the back end of those results. we have so much more coming up on "squawk box." ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ love the way you move.

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our advanced matching helps find talented candidates, so you can connect with them fast. visit indeed.com/hire oil prices rebounding slightly this morning after yesterday's steep decline. you can see wti up 1.32%. and brent at 72.35. we want to bring in don who is goldman sachs' co head of global

commodities research. let's talk about what happened yesterday. we saw israel counter strike on iran that did not include some of the oil facilities that had been anticipated and maybe is what drove prices up. is this a good reflection of where you think prices should be at this point? >> thanks for having me. indeed, the sharp sell-off yesterday which was the biggest daily move since 2022 really reflected that oil assets and nuclear assets were spared and that the u.s. got an advance notification and the response from iran's supreme leader was quite measured. from here we see some modest upside risks to prices and we have brands in the mid to high 70s for the remainder of the year. >> what is the risks that prices come down? >> we think the oil price is higher, and number one valuation and positioning are both in the

higher 10%, and second that this fairly low price levels compared to fundamentals and inventories, and we see demand from airlines that buy cheaper oil in response. finally, at this point the geopolitical risk premium is small and the risks is skewed to the upside. the market is already focused on the risk of over supply in 2025. >> let me take the other side of some of the arguments you brought up. geopolitical risks potentially down, but there's a chance israel could come back with a second strike after the u.s. election particularly on how that u.s. election is decided? >> at a high-level i think geopolitical uncertainty remains quite elevated. you have the u.s. elections and the conflict in the middle east doesn't seem fully resolved, and

the markets are pricing in a small number of disruptions, and you could also have a tightening in the enforcements of sanctions. over the last two years supply from iran has risen by about 1 million barrels and that's 1% of the global market. that could potentially reverse if western sanctions are enforced more strictly. >> looking at the supply and demand picture, there are a lot of questions. supply seems abundant at this point. russian oil and iranian oil has not shut down. we will see if u.s. oil production rises next year and it's already at pretty high-levels. there are questions about what happens with the economy. if the economy turns down and demand weakens whether that's here in the united states or

globally, where could prices go, on the down side or upside? >> if i look at 2025, we have a range of 70 to 75 -- >> that's for brand? >> yeah, subtract $5 for wti, and i do think the risks are skewed somewhat to the down side especially if you go out further into next year. the possibility that opec brings more barrels back than our base case, and the possibility of a weaker global economy if trade tensions escalate, so medium turn down side to the $70 midpoint of the forecast. if opec brings barrels back for 12 months, then our model suggested brands would end up in the low 60s opposed to the base case of mid-70s. i do see upside risks.

if you look at the fundamentals, oil stock levels have been flat but in the last three to four months, it's tightening. china demand is picking up. i think technically we are constructive and if you look out to 2025, you will see that skewed answer. >> thank you. can meta compete with google and microsoft in the ai search? that story after the break. and here is bitcoin and what is going on this morning. it's above 71,000, and it has been on quite a roll. almost 71.5, up almost 3%. we're coming right back.

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than expected results for the most recent quarter. instead there's full year guidance as the automaker was looking at softening demand. it's continuing to report some losses in its ev unit although narrower than a year ago, but still losing money. meta reportedly working on an ai-powered search engine to reduce its dependance on google and microsoft. the bot that is built into instagram and facebook is in bing to answer questions. and then serving as a former

chairman to trump will join us. and job gibson will also join us. "squawk box" is coming right back after this.

the candidates making the final push on the campaign trail.

joining us now to talk about economic issues, kevin hassett, a cea former chairman for president trump. now at the hoover institution. kevin, good to see you. we watch a lot of different indicators to try to glean what's going to happen on tuesday. so, you know, we've seen bitcoin going up. we've seen certain sectors that are thought to be trump trades going up. we've seen bitcoin, as i said going up. d.j.t. we've also seen yields going up. and we've also seen gold hitting new highs. you know why, kevin? because people think a second trump presidency could be highly inflationary from the tariffs. do you worry about that? >> no, i don't agree that's why you see those patterns. the patterns that you cite are correct, of course but what's going on is that people see when

donald trump was president there was high real wage growth. high real growth. and they fear under kamala harris who has proposed the largest corporate hike in the history of the developed world. he also wants to raise taxes on 27 million small businesses that the economy is going to go in a fundamentally southerly direction if those policies become law. so i think the expectation if harris were to win and she were to pass, you know, again, that huge capital income tax increase that the fed would have to offset that with sharp reductions. if president trump comes in, it's a supply side boon just like he had in the first certain, where investment went up 20%. real median income went up almost $6,000. all of that stuff happened because of strong growth. and one way to look at it are interest rates going up because there's real expected rates or expected higher inflation?

it's actual real rates that are driving the inflation right now. and real rates when the fed policy is going to stay where it is because the economy is so strong. >> i know, if the former president had to pick an editorial page that he liked more, one more than the other, "the wall street journal" would not necessarily be his favorite. but he probably would prefer to to some of the other mainstream newspapers. >> that's actually what i see. >> great. they're both rupert. but my point is, a series of articles written, and you're talking about the last trump presidency, not to expect anything even remotely similar this time around. with what he's proposing in terms of his economic platform. and it could be a far cry from the low inflation, high growth, whatever you want -- however you want to characterize it. but if there are

across-the-board tariffs, if the tax cuts are extended, if the s.a.l.t. cap is lifted, you add all of these things together, and both economists and even some of the opinion writers at the "journal" could think it's a reason to worry about -- some economists even say more than kamala harris' proposals. it could be more inflationary. you have seen the article, right? >> i've seen the article. and you should google, look at my response, if you want to see it more detailed if we have time for it here but the fact is inflation happens when supply runs ahead of demand -- behind demand. and demand ran ahead of supply under biden because they printed all of this money but they also regulated like crazy, and threatened companies lawsuits 40%. the s&p is under investigation by the justice department. this is all stuff that

inflation. and supply side growth, when you increase supply, you put downward pressure on inflation. he's going to -- the university of chicago has a study out that shows that biden's regulatory costs have increased costs for a typical family by $47,000. that's $47,000 that's going to be reduced dramatically under trump. in terms of tariffs -- don't forget -- >> one of the other pieces said the second would be more op tha that. there's so many giveaways on taxes. how are you going to raise money to -- >> yeah, okay. i want to talk to the tariffs too but, remember, joe, what's going to happen, there's going to be a reconciliation process next year, whoever is president. and what that means is congress is going to have to negotiate the overall deficit eck of their

spending and tax policies. and markets will see what that overall deficit effect is you know, pretty early on, in january, maybe early february. and then what's going to happen is that the individual committees are going to come out and spend money according to that plan and design a tax bill according to that plan. the president has on taxes a whole bunch of new ideas that are very supply-side. if you want to tax on tips you might as work harder to get more tips. if you get tax on that, you might as well do overtime. there's a bigger labor supply on that. if you put all of that together is what's going to happen, the president and congress are going to negotiate them. quickly about tariffs, tariffs require legislation. you've got all of this positive -- just saying a market producing it, maybe i'm worried that it's going to have opposing effects, then what tariffs are going to make through congress. the most likely is the

reciprocal trade act which the president talked about at madison square garden just this weekend where we just sent our tariffs to other countries that have to us. then they lowered their tariffs. >> kevin, two things, i remember reading the casey mulligan study. i wish i had it in front of me, saying the $47,000 figure which you just said. i'm curious, as an economist, whether you think that that study genuinely is accurate? that the biden administration unto itself has added $47,000 on average to every family in america? that is an enormous sum. you also cited 40 -- i don't know, did you say 40% of s&p 500? >> the s&p 500 kucurrently has e justice or ftc doing something to them. they're bound up in legal exp expenses. >> do you genuinely -- look, there's a regulatory cost. there's no question there's a

regulatory cost. the question is, do you find that study to be persuasive? >> yeah, casey say very regulatory guy. the fuel economy standards that are making it so we're going to have fewer and fewer cars, internal combustion engine cars that that drives up the costch internal combustion engines. casey has an estimate of the extra prices you'll pay this year, the next few years for cars because of draconian rates. and 47,000, by the way is a lifetime measure. divide by, i don't know, 20, if you want to think about what the cost is to you this year. >> do you think that you have draw a line to -- to get the

gdp, debt as a percentage of petito gdp, the line is possible. i don't know if we can stop it from going up 130, 140% by 2050. and i just don't see president trump talking about entitlements or social security or medicare or raising taxes in some way. is it all -- you're putting a lot of faith in the ability to grow the economy quickly enough to bring those things down. of. >> well, let's look at the record in the years that i was in the white house precovid, the deficit was about $800 billion a year. and right now, the deficit is 1.8, 1.9 trillion. so we've added about a trillion dollars per deficit per year.

and the way we did that was an explosion of covid spending, tony fauci tricked us in trimming the economy down which we offset with covid era policies. what happens, that set a new baseline, and joe biden and democrats used that baseline to explode spending. that led to a massive surge in demand, while attacking supply, a big surge in inflation, reduction in incomes and the mess that we see. but if you return to the policies of the previous administration and you move spending back towards where it was, the trillion dollars is a lot to reduce, then things will start to move in the right direction. don't forget, interest rates were indeperogennous in this. and it's about what the interest rate is.

zo when president trump was there we quickly had about 1% inflation for most of the time we were there, with 3% growth. and the objective is to get there as fast as possible and that puts down the pressure of interest rates and of course, you'll have to cut government spending as well. part of it, interest costs are the largest thing in the budget explosion. >> yeah, i want to believe. i want to believe. you know, i'm hearing -- i don't know, just for some reason, it jumped into my mind, voodoo economics, i don't know why, i want to believe it? do you believe it sincerely it could be done? >> yeah, i believe 1%, there's a very strong boom coming that boom is going to surprise like in the late '90s, upside on the revenues. while you're doing that, being tough on spending you can make a huge progress much more than people expect. don't forget, whoever is the next president, they're --

suppose it's a republican, the republicans on the house budget committee are real serious budget hawks. think what you might. i know that president trump cares a lot about the deficit. but he's going to be negotiating a reconciliation package with the kind of people that keep trading out speakers because they look at the deabt limit. thinking how fiscally responsible it is an eye on all of politics. >> kevin hassett, thank you, it's a week from today. i bought milk yesterday, you know what the expiration was, the 13th -- eight days after the election, the milk will still be -- so, it's coming. eight days after the election. >> even that, buy green bananas. >> when you look at the date, does it consume you? >> well, i go all the way to the back, don't you? >> yeah, to get the freshest stuff. yeah. >> do you tell your people to did that? >> your people? >> that's pretty much how i -- i

don't even know -- i don't even know to tell them. >> they already know because you got the best people. >> i can only hope. i got to talk to the house manager. i'll make a note of that. it is just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast, and you are watchiing "squawk box," on cnbc. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we've got mcdonald's beating revenues for the third quarter bus u.s. global sales actually disappointed. the earnings report doesn't address the event mcdonald's e. coli outbreak linked to quarter pounders because that actually happened after the quarter ended. we are expects to hear, though, from the company's ceo starting on a conference call at 8:30 eastern time. and we will bring you those updates as we get them. mcdonald's shares down about 2%. meantime, pfizer shares are

up after third quarter revenue blew past expectations paxlovid raised the sales. the stock up 1.5%. and then boeing upsizing an offering of common stock in face of issues in an ongoing strike of the company. boeing said the offering will be more than $20 billion including $16 billion from selling common stock. year to date, the stock is down 48%. this morning, 1%. nasdaq looking marginally high, the s&p 500 off about five points we go straight to dom chu, he's got a look at this morning's premarket mover ares, there are a bunch of them. >> yes, and we'll start with

jetblue. despite revenue for the quarter, they're expecting third quarter down 3% on a year over year basis. jetblue down 5.5.. d.r. horton missing it, and cause something buyers to stay on the sidelines in the near term. they were reporting right before the s&p 500 case-shiller home price data out at 9:00 a.m. eastern today. the stock up 7.5% on a year to date basis. we'll round things out with the shares of pale pal down about 4.5% or so after mixed quarterly results. they're also projecting lower than expected fourth quarter revenue growth. keep an eye on pay pal, d.r. horton, other big names out there. andrew, i'll send things back to you. >> dom, thank you for that.

joe. we're also tracking the price of crude coming off its worst day in two years. wti fell 6.1% yesterday, after not targeting the iranian oil infrastructure in that retaliation for iran's ballistic missile attack earlier this month. when we come back, we're going to talk rising bond yields with societe generale's head of rate strategy. 4.8% we've been watching. then later, we have a deep live on the deficit. will lawmakers be able to keep the discussion on the front burner once the election is over. that's all ahead when "squawk box" comes right back.

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investors tracking the rise in treasury yields. a host of economic data in the next week and the election could cause more volatility. joining us now subadra rajappa

with societe generale it's like basis points, 4.30, gone up every day since the put. you're going to tell me not to worry. is it signaling anything about the return, not necessarily vivig vigen vigilante. is there anything to that? >> not really, the data has justified the market place. >> what does that mean, the 4.30, because of the strength? >> yeah, we've had a data consult. retail sales has been strong. revisions to gdi and gdp have been very strong. tracking 3% gdp for the third quarter. and there's a decent amount of momentum going into the fourth

quarter. >> and new highs in the stock market and making more cuts. you just made the case they shouldn't cut in the first place and certainly not cut from here? >> you would think that the fed will probably be on hold for the remainder of the year, and the market starting pricing a 50-point basis cut in september. even then, i would say we were thinking that the feds should have a much more measured pace of easing. and now the market's very much aligned with our view that the fed will take a much more measured approach on policy. i'd say the last ten basis points of the selloff might be related to elections. there's a little bit of caution heading into the elections next week. you're seeing that especially play out in the bond markets. perhaps in the strength of the dollar, and other assets like crypto. but for the most part, i would say that the move in yields has been much more fundamental than related to the elections. >> doesn't it seem like both candidate be would be

inflationary to some extent? at least what they're talking about. >> it's possible. but for the most part, i would say that the tariffs is where you're going to see that stepup in inflation for 2025. really, the market is still, in my view, discounting the amount of impact that we could get from the tariffs. expecting that's going to be much more of an opening salvo for a negotiated deal. we might not see 60% tariffs on china, and 10% tariffs on all imports. at if we do something for that magnitude, it's going to be inflationary. beyond, with the change, the impact is going to be a lot more. >> how are the options, when will we test the water for whether we can, you know, keep rates coming down, even though we're trying to sell so much to the u.s. government? >> well, for now, i think it's

not that much of an issue. if you look at -- we get a treasury funding announcement on wednesday. >> wednesday. >> and what you'll see, the treasury is going to keep couponing issue sizements increase. and see them increase meaningfully. you'll get more clarity on what the policy is, who wins the election, what they're planning to do on the fiscal side. for now, i would say it's much more status quo. so sort of an immediate reaction for me is going to be on the inflation side. depending on what the outcome of the elections are. but for the most part, i think for a meaningful increase in coupon issuance sizes, that's something that we're thinking about for next year, not this year. >> the -- a little happening with -- it's not a cold or anything like that, it's like -- i share a lot, i share a lot.

>> sometimes, too much. tmi. >> share a lot. i'm trying to bring them in to understand what's happening. i don't think that inflation necessarily is as under control as people think. is it? is it possible that we could be in the beginnings of at least being disappointed on it, on a continuing downtrend, not necessarily going back up, but is everything great right now? >> so far, so good. it feels a little bit like a goldilocks scenario. but typically, when you look at inflationary episodes going back to the '70s and '80s and the decline in inflation in a trend tends to take a lot longer than people anticipate and that's what you're seeing in the fed's projections as well as our economist projection. the normal inflation could take a couple years or longer. the disinflationary path is

going to be a little slower than people expect. especially if the fed continues to cut rates. the job market is holding up, when the fed's easing policy, that's going to be something that's stimulative. and you could see that pick up inflation as a result of that. >> you've got oil which is cooperating. but then boeing, those people are not cooperating in terms of -- i mean, they're going to be -- >> in terms of the inflation picture. >> yeah. you got strong labor. they can ask for a lot. and the strike -- you know, never used to talk about 35% and 40% wage increases. and that's what everybody -- a lot of it, i guess, it's a tai tailwind, at least today. >> yeah. i mean the geopolitics, of course, are an ongoing concern so you could see a spike in oil. really what you're looking at

for inflation is next week after the election. that depends on the market. if we do see a substantial increase in the ten-year break even, with expectations that might be something that could cause the fed to commit pause at the november meeting, especially given how strong the data has been. they don't want to be seen in hiking rates in an environment where inflation expectations are rising sharply. so that's something i'll be looking at next week post-election. >> you think the market has come around -- you don't think they should have gone 50? >> no. we thought that the market is priced for 25. that seemed like that was the outcome. market was placed for 50, but our expectation was 25 basis cuts. we were expects 25 in november and december. >> now, it's slowing down to where you think it's better. they're showing it right now. >> yeah. >> that's in line with what you think is going on? >> yeah. >> you should have told us that

earlier. sub subadra, thank you. >> thank you. coming up on the state of the u.s. small business, the ceo of paychecks is with us after the break. take a look at the bp oil company, weakest quarterly earnings in nearly four years. a slump in crude oil prices and boeing refining margins. stock down on the news, you can see almost year to date 14.5%. you're watching "squawk box." and this is cnbc.

welcome back to "squawk box." take a look at the futures right now, dow jones off about 140 points. nasdaq off by 2 points, the s&p 500 off by 7 points. we're also continuing to watch shares of trump media because it's going in the opposite direction, up 20% in the premarket. also gaining about 20% yesterday. week to date now, up now more

than 40%, operating i don't know, like a meme stock of some sort. i think we're all trying to make some sense of what it is, is it a proxy to the election? is it a proxy to something else? joe kernen. starbucks has a message to its corporate staff, come into the of three days a week or you may never be able to come back at all. sounds cold, i know. according to a memo seen by bloomberg, the coffee chain will begin a process in january to hold workers accountable if they don't follow starbucks inoffice policy, that could include getting fired. this is a more intense message from the new ceo brian niccol. last no, bloomberg reported he told staffers he wouldn't tell them what days to work from the office but that they should come in more often than not. it's just really nice everybody is being so gentle.

>> some people think three days is gentle. >> i know, it's crazy. >> what happened? >> it all depends on the job. >> remember potter, that's the way a boss -- remember him, mr. potter? >> it all depends on the jobs market. if the jobs market is strong, then bosses are going to be nicer. >> okay. >> depends on what happens. if you have a harder time getting your employees back -- >> nice segue to this. >> it is. we have somebody who can talk about this right now, paychex is down with its latest business data. actually showing moderate growth and impacts from hurricanes helene and milton. joining us what he's seeing is paychex ceo john gibson. john, what are the challenges that small businesses are facing right now. >> well, becky, first of all, it's great to be back with you. small businesses, i think back to the last quarter of 2024, and i think you and i spoke since

january about the coming recession. seems like we've avoided that. they've been dealing with difficulties in finding employees. remember, our index is around businesses with less than 50 employees. that continues to be a problem for them. they continue to deal with the advents of hurricanes. you mentioned both hurricanes impacted greatly florida and north carolina. in our index in october. when you look at our index in october, it was over 100. but that was really in face of those two states really weighting it down. >> let's just go back to the issues they're facing. they're still having a hard time finding employees. i think they're paying a little bit more on an average hourly basis. and they're still having a hard time getting access to capital, or at least affordable capital, even though the fed's already started lowering rates. i mean, they're usually the last ones to get access to capital when rates come down. >> yeah, look, i think small

businesses continue to show resilience and they're optimistic. but some of the things that we're seeing right now is finding employees continues to be a problem. you mentioned the capital issue. the capital access, not just the cost of capital, is very difficult for small businesses in particular. the banking system is not lending as much as it was before. they're also dealing with managing costs. and then on top of that, they're really struggling to manage to afford to provide benefits that are competitive against larger employers. as a matter of fact, in the national federation of independent businesses just announced top problems for small business, and number one was the affordability of health benefits. and what was tragic in that survey, was last year, for the first time, small businesses actually decreased the number of small businesses that were offering benefits. and that just further makes it more difficult for small businesses under 50 to be able to compete against larger

employers. that's why at paychex, we've been doing a lot of things with new products and services. we introduced a new a.i.-based recruiting type pilot that anyone can buy and actually get access to 250 million workers that they can recruit. we also announced a product of paychex benefits first, without having employees pay anything for them because they're providing those for the employees directly. small businesses have been resilient, we're continuing to see moderate growth but facing challenges going into 2025. >> hurricanes helene and milton, i guess that impacted a huge number of states in the south. how are they doing in terms of recovery with small businesses there? >> yeah, becky, i will tell you, florida and north carolina were really hit significantly. florida fell below, actually contracted for the first time

since 2021. tampa went to last in the metros. it's been in the top five. and then north carolina fell 11 spots. what i can tell you is they are recovering. in fact, this morning, i looked at our daily report on employment activity. and what's interesting, we actually see it. it took florida about ten days to recover back to normal. they're back to normal, been back to normal since about midoctober. and just last week, north carolina got back on its feet, about a 15-point delay. and what we've typically seen in those type of situations is we do what americans do. we help each other out. we get back on our feet. we get stores open again. and then people from around the country come in, set up businesses and help people rebuild. and we're already seeing that in both of those states in our early indicators. >> okay. john, thanks for joining us this morning. >> it's great to be with you. thanks, becky. coming up, we're going to get mcdonald's response to event

e. coli outbreak. and with talk of american overspending ramping up in the final stretch of the presidential campaign, we'll try to get a handle on the real economic impact of big deficits. that's next. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now have worsened, as the morning has gone on, at least the dow. which is now down triple digits. and leisman is here. looking at treasuries here, 4.30. i know you're not worried. everything's fine, don't fret. >> all is well. >> all is well. have another. andrew. we've got a special programming note, cnbc is going to be live all night long -- we should just get lionel richie to license the song -- on election night next week. we'll have results as they come in some of the biggest names in

business. it all starts at 7:00 p.m. eastern in the new york stock exchange. we'll have live coverage in the overnight as well. plus, asian and european markets. and then if you haven't slept and want to keep going, "squawk box" is going to start at 5:00 a.m. >> oh. >> hopefully, by then, we'll actually know what's going on. join us and make sure, of course, you stay with the cnbc election night coverage all evening. >> that was the prediction from axios, he said we will know by 5:00 a.m. it will give us something to talk about, something to dig our teeth into. >> your aura ring is going to be horrible. >> be up listening all night. >> just listening to lionel richie on repeat. right now, we want to get down into the national debt and deficit issues. those are some of the key issues driving the economy on this

election cycle. eamon javers and steve liesman are both here. we're going to start with eamon and then to steve. eamon, welcome. >> good morning, becky. the new analysis comes from the committee for responsible federal budget released monday. and it finds that both candidates' plans will hike the national debt, and that former president trump's plans would be much worse phone the federal budget. according to the group, vice president harris' plan would increase the debt by $3.9 trillion bids 2025. and trump's plan, $7.5 trillion in that same time frame. take a look at the three scenarios that they lay out here. the expected trump deficits, expected harris deficits and baselines under current law. there are big rules here's depending on assessments. the group estimates vice president harris' plan could

increase to 8.3 trillion and president trump could increase the debt $15.5 trillion again over the same time frame. the most costly, harris, extending the tax cuts for households making $400,000, and expanding the child tax credit and earned income tax credit which would cost $4.3 trillion. and donald trump extending the tax cuts, $5.3 trillion. and exempting overtime with taxes costing $2 trillion. no matter who wins next week. it's going to be bad for the nation's fiscal health likely. we're talking about massive increases in debts. as long as the eye can see, 2025 is a long time from now. >> deja vu, this is a study from a few weeks ago. >> they updated it, yeah. >> okay.

>> they're just throwing out proposals. >> right. literally, every time -- >> this is the same -- the ranges were the same. it's either like a dollar deficit or $40 trillion. >> neither candidate is putting out a whole lot of details with the plans. >> right. >> and it's through congress. >> and congress is the differencemaker here. we're going to talk more about this in just a moment, but steve, why don't we bring you in, you're taking a look economic result of those deficits. here's what's going to happen even if nothing changes. interest costs will soar, and be a bigger part of the budget. they already eclipse defense and medicare spending. one more thing, no one really seems to care. not the politicians and not the broader public. the economic interests, surging spending in other areas of government. all of the borrowing crowds out

the private investment. and the market says no mas, ever increasing supply of debt and auctions fail and buyers of debt far higher interest rating. maya mcguinness says there's an invi invisible fence. with don't know when we run out of space until we down. the ceo says the deficit will climb by a trillion that's before any of this other stuff these guys add. or 122% of gdp. and it will top 1.63. to be sure, deficit hawks have warned about troubling outcomes at lower levels of debt and those have not materialized. and it might be because rules are somewhat different when you're the rules currency. what's the reason, data from the economic survey shows concern where the deficit is low.

deficit ranks tenth far below inflation and china and taxes. you do have to squint, joe, to see the deficit. we had to remove a bunch to make that chart fit. here's the question, do people not care about the deficit because politicians have not made it an issue? or do politicians not care because voters don't care? >> those invisible fences, i've seen them, they do not work -- for dogs -- >> we had a dog last lweek. >> do they work for the bond market? >> yeah, if you're walking by, if a zadog comes at you, not to worry. >> we have a dog that doesn't goes past the fence, and the fence is never on. >> here's the issue, i was going to ask a question that you put at the end is this because voters don't care about it because politicians don't talk about it?

or voters don't talk about it because politicians -- >> we have people saying here you take this, you take that -- there's no blow back. at least the budget committee is trying to put it on the table as we are here. it should be something. look, i've been a deficit dove over the years, it's been kind of the right call. but then you reach a point where you're like, i don't know where that fiscal space is. what worries me, covering economics. >> the way it works every single dollar of spending has a constituency. everybody benefits from that dollar who will scream and yell when it's cut. so politics don't want the political pain of cutting anything. they come in and say we're going to cut waste, fraud and abuse. and then they go in and find the waste, fraud and abuse and someone is benefitting from every one of those dollars so they don't do it. democrats historically have not done anything about the deficit.

republicans don't do it. there's not political will for it. i think steve is right, it's the bond market. if the bond market says borrow. >> "the new york times" had a story earlier this week quoting an investor saying that investors don't care about the supply of treasuries. it's other things driving treasury prices. >> can i just say one thing, that's been true. >> yeah. >> it has been true you could not make a trade based on supply. supply was something the market took down and even people warned about it. i'm not sure that's true anymore. >> when did it change? >> we don't know that it's changed. but we saw, for example, was -- i can't remember right now, was it last suggest where the treasury kind of made a mistake and misjudged the market for the its appetite for longer term coupons. they readjusted.

>> there's a piece in the journal saying yields are increasing on these fears. >> did you see subadra on, she said the coupon, there is something coming soon, near term. >> tomorrow, 8:30, this time. >> you could actually know -- >> we'll know what the next quarter funding is. >> it just seems like it's too much to try to flow. people want a higher yield. >> can i say a funny thing, rick and i have this running argument -- among other things -- he comes out and he judges the bond market based upon the indirects. he says is it a "b" or "c"? i give everyone an "a." because they're selling it, 65 billion, have you ever heard of that -- they're selling it, it's an "a"! >> you're working on pass/fail. >> if they sell it, it's good.

rick says, look, they're doing a good job. >> think of what happens if the bond market says to the u.s. government you can't borrow anymore. at these prices. >> at these prices. by the way, it's going up substantially, it's been taking up more and more. >> political shock from that, you're talking about a 2008-style event, i think in terms of the way people will feel about it. the resentment that people across the country will have towards wall street when they sense that big bankers telling the government they have to cut the spending -- >> how is that the banker's fault. >> that would be the way we perceived in the country -- >> if that's the case, we have a bigger problem with our electorate. >> we do have -- >> let me give you good news. the good news is america is an enormously wealthy country. if you looked at america and graded on its ability to pay, in other words if you did an debt to asset or debt-to-income ratio, we are doing fine. the issue is the political will

to pay this is one of the reason one of the credit agencies downgraded it. and the market gives the government tremendous leeway to sort this out. >> yeah. >> so it would even just be the announcement or some sort of momentum towards a plan. not even executing the plan. >> as warren buffett always said, even wealthy families can overextend themselves. >> that is true. that is true. >> again, we're all kind of waiting to see when that catches up with us because we -- >> but have the exorbitant privilege of having the dollar gives us leeway, if we came up with a plan, here's a ten-year to solve this. it's one of those things, i'll clean out that closet tomorrow. >> it didn't work with bowles. >> you want them to argue about the old family with the hole in their sweater, not like with a rock star. >> the question is how can you create this tipping point,

friction point that people think they need without creating the true -- by the way, back a decade, 2011 when we were doing the simpson bowles conversation there was a sense that the world was going to fall of off its axis. >> deficits did go down during the obama administration, right, if you look at the obama trajectory for deficits, it goes down every year. deficits went down under clinton because we had huge economic growth. the easy way is out of growth and suddenly say that. >> there's one quick negative here, the thing that's extraordinary, if the level of the deficit at full employment, amid an expansion, that's the thing that worries me more than anything. >> right. >> this is a time when the deficit should be stable to falling when you should be, you know, what did they say in the bible, gathering the grain for

seven years of a famine. >> saving for a rainy day at this point. eamon, steve, thank you guys both for a serious conversation- coming up, crisis management expert is going to talk about the mcdonald's response to the e. coli outbreak. the company reporting fresh numbers this morning. we're looking at headlineses to the fall. stay tuned. with gold and copper prices pushing towards all time highs, us gold corp. offers investors leverage to both gold and copper at its project, and mining friendly wyoming. u.s. gold corp has a reserve of almost 1.5 million

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we are get something headlines from the mcdonald's conference call. kate rogers joins us with those highlights right now. kate, what are you hearing? >> hi, becky. the ceo addressing the issue at the top of the call with analysts. i'll take you through the headlines. the first time we've heard from him since the e. coli outbreak. telling analysts the situation is contained and nothing is more important nan than safety. and he called the recent case of

e. coli cases deeply concerning. taylor springs, the most likely source. and colorado department of agriculture confirmed sunday they did not detect e. coli from mcdonald's beef patties that rules the meat out as the source. he is confident that they can return quarter pounders which they're set to do. . proud of franchisees unwavering commitment. and it remains safe to eat at mcdonald's. andrew. >> kate, did he give any answers as to whether -- how much it's impacted sales since? >> not yet, becky. there have been reports from sales, from placer.ai, those reports were down 4.6%. we haven't gotten it yet. i'll be sure to to bring you updates when we get them.

>> thank you. we've got an update from "the washington post" from npr saying more than 200,000 ended up cancelling their digital subscriptions to "the washington post" following the paper's decision which is, of course, owns by jeff bezos to block an endorsement of vice president harris for according to people o were briefed on this that told npr this. in an opinion piece that's got a lot of people talking this morning, it was posted last night, jeff bezos saying that presidential endorsements do nothing, he says, to tip the scales in an election. rather, he said, they create a perception of bias and non-independence. he said the decision not to endorse a candidate was a step in the right direction to regain americans' lost trust in the news media. he did acknowledge that the late timing was not ideal, commenting that it was, in his words, because of inadequate planning and not some intentional strategy. bezos talks about his other business interests, writing when it comes to the appearance of a conflict, i am not an ideal owner of the post, he notes

amazon and blue origin often interact with government officials. he writes, quote, you can see my wealth and business interest as a bulwark against intimidation or a web of conflicting interest. only my own principles can tip the balance from one to the other. i assure you that my views are, in fact, principled and i believe my track record as owner of the post backs this up. three members of the paper's editorial board have resign in protest. my understanding is they are still employees of the post, they're just not on the, quote, unquote, board, editorial board itself. our next guest is going to join us to talk about the "washington post" story, about mcdonald's trying to right the ship after the recent e. coli outbreak. we want to welcome crisis management effort, eric dezenhall. good morning to you. curious both about your reaction to the post and the "l.a.

times," also made a decision not to endorse a candidate this time around. there's been a lot of blowback, folks canceling subscriptions and the like. and now we've heard from jeff bezos himself last evening. what say you? >> it's really too soon to tell. i mean, we're right in the middle of an election where there is such high emotions and fever pitch that every single thing that breaks seems to be the eternal crisis. but the issue in the media industry is so large that i suspect that this will move out of the news pretty quickly, because we're in for a bloodbath in a few days, and i think that is going to consume the public. and i think in most crisis situations what it comes down to is what you're competing with. and i think the media, the post, the "l.a. times," are competing with something much larger than a debate about journalism, given what's about to happen.

>> and that bloodbath is a result of what? >> the election. i think that this is not going to be easily resolved. i mean, i think that what's fascinating to me from a crisis management perspective about trump is that what goes around never comes around, not even a little bit. you would have thought that the rally at madison square garden at any time would have been a career killer, a campaign killer. that doesn't seem to be the case. i think that's sucking up all the oxygen, and a lot of what i look at when we are in a crisis situation, what are we competing with? i think when you're competing with the election, everything else falls by the wayside pretty quickly, unless you're a mcdonald's consumer and you're worried about lunch. >> i want to get to mcdonald's, but let me just ask you this. do you see these moves by the "l.a. times," by the "washington post" -- look, there's two views

of this. one, it's a principled decision, editorial boards should not be endorsing candidates. and then, of course, the question is, if they don't do that, do they gain more trust as a function of it? jeff bezos made the argument it's directionally in the right direction. or do you see this as some others do, as capitulation of some sort to former president trump, fearing that if he wins, there is going to be retaliation? >> you can't be responsible for how everybody is going to interpret something. and i think that -- i, for fun, read the comments on articles, and i was surprised to see that the comments are relatively even in the comments section about the decisions by the "l.a. times" and the "washington post." now, i live in washington, so journalists are understandably outraged. they think this is the end of the world. i think that consumers are very different and a lot of times

when a lot of the media are having to make a decision, it's the kind of consumers they want in the future. and there's a lot of concern about media bias. i think that a lot of that concern is very, very realistic. and so, this is one of those things we're going to see over time, whether or not these media outlets end up retaining other people who they might have lost in the short term. >> we've got to go, eric. but mcdonald's, is there a way back, easy, hard? >> of course there is. easy. in a crisis situation, all people care about is hazard. when you find out that the company has isolated the problem, when you find out that they have pulled the product, that they know exactly what it is, i think there's a very good chance that sales rebound very, very quickly. because if you look at mcdonald's history, they really have had a shockingly small number of cases like this. and when the government comes out and says you're doing all that you can do, i think it's

great. they should feel relatively comfortable. >> we've got to run. i appreciate it ryveve, ry much. "squawk box" is coming back after this. ♪♪ amazing. jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old.

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dom chu is back with some

premarket movers. >> indeed, i am. let's get started with a check of d.r. horton, down 12% after missing estimates for the quarter. the home builder citing rate volatility and uncertainty keeping potential home buyers on the sidelines. crocs down by 14.5%. the footwear maker did provide softer full-year revenue guidance due to weakness at its hey dude brand. shares of alphabet are up slightly ahead of its big earnings release after the closing bell. traders are expecting to see a 6% swing up or down in that stock based upon what we're seeing in current options prices in the market right now. so, joe, it could set the tone for the rest of the earnings. alphabet, big catalyst. back over to you guys. >> thank you, dom chu. a final check on the markets.

159 points. nasdaq is still -- well, now the nasdaq is in the red, too. s&p down about 8 1/2 points. let's look at the ten-year quickly. 4.32%. it did seem to tick up a little when we were talking about how screwed we are. make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" -- >> it will be better. >> we'll be fine. good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. futures under slight pressure as the ten-year climbs to 4.32%, highest since july. pfizer, royal caribbean, sofi, paypal all guiding above. our roadmap begins with a parade of blue chip earnings, and mcdonald's comps fall more than expected. pfizer did hik