solid. i do wonder how much alphabet sets the stage for some other players. >> the big question is meta has been such a strong stock so it is a little more extended. we will see if it can justify that recent run when we hear from that company. >> earnings, election, and economic dat, the three es are what's moving this market as we did get a record close for the nasdaq today. mike santoli, thank you. that does it for us at "overtime," ", ," ""fast money"s now." >> this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq markets. here is what's on tap tonight. an after hours earnings palooza, we are dialed into this evening's big reports. we are one week away from the elections and bond and stock markets seem to have different reads on what to expect. who is right, what's it mean for the rest of the year? plus d.r. horton rocks the foundation for home builders, we're counting down to the results from eli lilly tomorrow.

i'm melissa lee live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk, steve, karen, and guy adami. a massive night of earnings from big tech to big burritos. full team coverage. seema mody standing by on amd. kate rodgers has the scoop on chipotle, julia boorstin dialed into the snap conference call. we start off with deirdre bosa, she joins us here on set. >> amazing. >> first of all, it's a delight to be here in-person. thank you for having me. i'm listening to the earnings call right up until this moment and i will tell you that the new cfo anat ashkenazi is speaking. we're expecting to hear capex numbers. the stock has the ability to move higher or lower based on what she says. so far, though, i guess maybe the initial take away is maybe a sigh of relief for google investors. we cared about most core advertising. any vulnerability there might have suggested that all of this new competition coming online in

a generative ai world is taking market share away from this business that has been dominant for the last few decades. ad revenue beat expectations, coming in a little better, as did youtube and cloud revenue, cloud important because that's where the ai products lie. there's demand and it was growing, i think, in the 30 something percent. that was a positive. that said, though, guys, competition is only set to intensify in the months ahead. for generative ai products and in ad dollars with the pro plexity coming on line. with he heard from the ceo on the call, he said ai overviews, ai light for the traditional user reaching a billion users on a monthly basis, increasing overall search usage and this is a positive sign google is introducing ai search to a wider group of users and doing it successfully. people who may not buy a chatgpt or anthropic subscription. i just want to mention he has lid 25% of google code is

generated by ai. we did see slightly better margins than expected. so maybe we're starting to see sort of the return on investment from all of the spending on generative ai. that's it, guys. i'm going to continue to watch and listen to the call. of the tok is now up about 5%. >> in terms of the capex guide are we expecting a decline quarter on quarter for the guidance? >> well, what sundar pichai said was that the risk of underspending was greater than the risk of overspending. so actually my amazing producer laura put this number in the dock for me. the market was expecting $12.65 billion in capex, $13 billion. that is not a huge step up from someone who said there is a risk of underspending, it seems to be mostly in line. so that may be why you're seeing the stock move higher now about 5.5%. >> so there is a quarter on quarter decline, though n capex penned spending. >> right. >> dee, keep us posted. deirdre bosa here in the nasdaq.

amazing. >> unbelievable. real quick, so we get through ads, that was in line or better than expected so collective sigh of relief. how do we build upon that? if we look cloud it up 35% year over year in terms of revenue, that's very good. even other bets, but this is what i come down -- you know, google breaks the margins down by of gross or of net and operating margins for both were much better than expected and at 19.5 times next year's numbers that kind of growth in cloud and the fact that ad spend is still there, to me suggests the stock should be trading where we were in july, about 191 or so. >> so i agree with everything guy said. there was a big sigh of relief, right, so we did not -- we saw a beat not a miss. that was very good. platform also that was good as well. much smaller but a very nice beat there. there was a lot to like in this. youtube a beat. kind of across the board pretty much everywhere. so that was good. we've got to hear the call, they

will talk about capex which we just mentioned but also there's a lot of cash flow here what they plan on doing with it and we would want to hear his ai thoughts. but i do still think there is a significant penalty on this stock given the big uncertainties of the legal situations. i don't know how big that is. >> is that the bulk of the penalty when it comes to how it's performed versus peers, valuation versus peers? >> i think so. the market hates uncertainty. i actually feel like if there were charity owe on it. >> when was there clarity? >> i guess before the -- before the case ever started. before the court case. >> you can always count on one thing with google, the headwind of this lack of clarity with regulatory system. so it's never -- it's never as if you have smooth sailing. >> right, but, you know, a verdict against them is something. >> sure. >> that counts for something. >> i'm not disagreeing. >> i don't know how much to think about t this was very good, i'm relieved and happy. >> there is the case even if they had said something sort of

favorable about a possible breakup should the regulatory overhang result in that that it could be good for the stock. >> i don't agree, actually. i very, very rarely disagree with you. >> almost never. >> analyst research notes that i read about the quarter saying if they say anything favorable about that -- >> could youtube be worth more? maybe if you look at a netflix and put in some multiple. but i do think the dismantling of the advertising structure as part of a breakup would not be value -- >> this advertising business in multiple different parts over the last 20 or so years so taking youtube out of that which is a very important obviously search engine for them would not be a great idea. if you think about what debo just said, she's been saying this for a while, google and ai across their products they have, what, seven 1 billion plus users, some have 2 billion that sort of thing. it's kind of like ai for everyone. it's going to be embedded. if you think that all of these

models will be commoditized when you think about that capex number maybe they got where they need to be, built out the capacity on google cloud, trained their models. maybe they take a little bit of a pause on the spend. that should be good for the stock. if you look at margin expectations for next year it's a big step down from 68% this year to consensus at 62 next year. if you take your foot off the pedal a little bit on the capex and start to get more uptake of your products and services, cloud was up 35% year over year, you take market share, that's how you get the stock going, what did you say, guy, 19 o. >> 191, i think that's where we were in july. >> we are getting capex from the conference call, they're saying we expect quarterly capex in the fourth quarter to be at similar levels to q3 so roughly $13 billion. keep in mind in quarter versus last quarter was a slight decline in terms of capex, maybe that's why the stock is up by 6% or so after hours session highs. >> they still have market share of over 90%. the last time they were below 90% market share was 2014.

the problem is they've had such smooth sailing with search, this is the first time ever we have had ai become a headwind, potential a headwind. what i mean is if you look at yahoo, bing, they have single digits in search. when you have all of these new ai searches, is everyone on this desk searching with ai or google? ai, right? ai. >> google is that now. >> they're doing it but once you start and you download another application on your desktop, you start to use it more. so this is the first time that 90% is not ironclad in my opinion. >> all right. for more on after hours results let's gripping in gene munster. great to see you. what is your take on capex, how it has come down quarter after quarter and how it is leveling off. how do you interpret and impute that into are we going to see

monetization happen? >> well, the cfo was just talk being they're going to invest with an efficiency mindset, invest in growth areas, i think you're seeing that in the capex numbers and so i think there is on my mind immediately jumps to nvidia here not to get off topic but ultimately i still believe nvidia is in a great spot despite topping off of some of google's capex numbers. so i think that this is i think an example of how google is growing from ai at least in infrastructure in a smart way and of course an impressive number. i want to just -- i think there's something i do want to cover here, melissa, that is, i think, really important is that this is probably not because the capex number but i think this is probably the most important google report in maybe 7 to 10 years, something around there, and the reason is that 7, 10 years ago there was a lot of debate around how mobile was

going to impact the business and of course that's been the narrative around google for the last year is how is ai going to impact the business. what we saw in their u.s. business, that is where the ai overview saw the first full quarter, the expectations were that it was going to grow at 12%, it grew at 19%. i think that this is the first evidence and the call has just been a chorus of commentary about how ai overviews is having a positive impact on the business. we are not out of the woods yet, google investors, but i think that this is a most encouraging data point after a lot of hand wringing over the last several quarters. >> gene, thanks for being on. this is a very small part but i'm interested, waymo gets, i guess, i don't know, no-ish credit. what do you think it should be? >> well, the reason why it doesn't get credit is that it's such a small part of the business. we're doing some of the numbers on it today, they're doing about $30 million, they didn't report

this but you can back into it, about $30 million a rear yahoo err in revenue. it's like a speck of revenue. if it grows a lot it's still going to be relatively small. i think this probably ends up better as a stand-alone company and wherein investors google investors may benefit 5% or 10% from waymo but unfortunately given the size and having really nice growth but just given the size of it probably isn't going to have a big impact. i wish it was different but i don't think it's going to have a major impact on the stock. >> gene, it's dan. nice call, i know this is exactly what you laid out here and that's what's playing out. when you think about low expectations and to guy's point the stock should probably work back towards the july highs look at the valuation. quick one, why is consensus for gross margins a huge step down from 68% to 62% and will that be somewhat, you know, maybe conservative if you start to see capex slow down a little bit? >> so gross margins we hopefully will get are commentary on the

call but they are impacted by traffic acquisition. this has been at the center of the whole regulatory conversation. they have not commented on it as of the first two questions it hasn't come up yet. i think that has an impact. another piece is content costs related to youtube. so i think that we'll see how those two levers play out. i think if it does see a dip based on that efficiency commentary that of course is a magical word for investors from the cfo, i think we should see some margin improvements down the road. >> gene, there are a lot of overhangs over alphabet at all times, regulatory, but then there's also the legal overhang as to whether or not there needs to be some sort of payment to sites that its gen ai assistant points users to in order to answer queries and i'm wondering how you start thinking about that because if you think about -- you get the answer, you don't click through to the site, that site sees a decline in ad revenues, that site then doesn't advertise as much, either, so

it's sort of this vicious cycle that can start. >> there's some similarities between what happened with -- when google was just emerging in 2005 to 2010, publishers taking issues they are scraping traffic from them. we're seeing the same thing now. google that deals with the publishers we've seen a handful on the ai front with reddit and openai doing deals and they tend to be in the 50 to 100 million dollars a year right now. if you are going to put it into context what could google potentially spend on some of these license deals, could be in upwards of a billion dollars a year. it's a big number, but i think that in the grand scheme of things that squeaky wheel gets greased from the publishers and i think a billion dollars goes a long way to make sure that everybody is playing fair. >> all right. gene, great to speak with you and get your take. appreciate it as always. gene munster of deepwater. karen, as an investor what are the remaining questions you

have? >> to go back on that one for a minute who has more money than google to pay whatever. >> feel bad for the small guys. >> it's harder for them, although any of them can raise money now, seemingly infinite money, i guess. i guess are there any cracks here? this was a really good quarter, nothing to think about this quarter, it's what are they seeing. so i don't think we should think, all right, the all clear, there is no threat to google search. i don't feel comfortable taking that position. >> right. >> so that's what i want to hear about, that's probably softer more commentary not numbers. >> so this is not the quarter in which you relate alphabet shares to match the multiples of its peers or more closely align? >> you put two quarters like this together, the one thing that is a big opportunity is apple. when they did the deal with the openai they spoke to the fact they will probably include gemini. if you think about the exclusive placement that they have on ios devices in safari they pay apple

$25 billion a year for that acquisition. maybe there's some sort of deal with the ios 18 that really does benefit them in the quarters to come. >> conference call is under way as we mentioned before. we will keep you posted on that. the shares are at after hours session highs up 6 plus percent. earnings alert on amd, tumbling to after hours lows. seema mody has the very latest. >> amd's fourth quarter revenue guide failed to meet some of the more optimistic targets on the wall street. while it's dat center revenue climbed 122% versus a year ago gaming sales dropped 69% which the company says is primarily due to a decrease in custom chips that go into microsoft and sony game consoles. weakness typically expected during this time. the ceo lisa su referencing strength in data center products, robust demand for the rise in pc processors, she also just said that microsoft is using its latest ai processor

broadly for multiple co-pilot services. so far no ai chip forecast for 2024, the street will be waiting for that. bernstein's stacy rasgon says his concern is there isn't enough room for upside on ai with strength in pcs. with the losses it's seeing after hours shares of amd have pretty much erased gains, still up 4% for the year. underperforming nvidia, but outperforming the likes of intel year to date. we will be looking for lisa su to join "squawk on the street" tomorrow. >> seema mody, thank you. stacey's basic point was the quality of the beat was a low quality beat wasn't in the areas you would want to see. we are still looking for that aigpu revenue number which should be more than $4.5 billion. >> looking for a while. dan talks about this all the time, but since march this has been in a series of lower highs, been in this downward sloping trend line and we did not break out of it.

number one. number two, i think when you get a quarter -- forget about the quarter, the quarter was okay, the guides scared people. when you trade at this valuation with no ai components people will sell first, ask questions later. now the issue is where do you guy the stock. probably tralgd about 155. i think we got down to 130 at one point this year. i don't think it gets down there. 145 to 150 that feels like where it's going. >> interesting the combination of the run up going into it, right, and the -- the quarter was okay, gaming was very weak but that is the smallest component, i wouldn't really put too much of a hit on it for that. it's just the valuation, to your point exactly, it's already pricing in a lot of really good things that we need to hear really good and we haven't heard that yet. >> guy is probably with the saying enzo ferrari if you are not first you're last. they're not nvidia so everyone treats them as a distant stepchild that no one really wants to take care of. i know it's mean, i will get

something at me on this. but i think there's going to be a bifurcated market. there's going to be really contextualized chips and then there's going to be really sort of just average chips and i think you're going to see the average chips from amd and intel and everyone shooting for the nvidia chips of the elite chips. >> i'm more hopefulful amd. >> even the mediocre chips, broadcom today a partnership with openai to make its own chips, that was your point for a long time. all of these guys will be starting to make their own chips. >> designing their own, partnering to create them, they all want a second source, that was the promise of amd, lisa su, she always comes on after every quarter, she's facing the music, she talked about $4.5 billion in revenue, they just did upside that. the trade is getting narrower and narrower in the stock market. we saw dell, micron, super micro, amd go by the wayside, 40% of nvidia sales they are

reporting this week and the capex numbers will be very important to watch. >> if there's one person that can do it, though, it's her. we've been doing the show a long time. >> if we make it to january 18 years. >> you're using it wrong. >> a week and a half ago we turned around and we were all like -- we were like star struck. >> we were. >>it was like gwen stefani was here. >> we were trying to call her over. she was like no thanks. >> quiet period. >> pretty cool. coming up a lot more earnings action to bring you, shares of chipotle, snap, caesar's details from the all the earnings ahead. d.r. horton dropping hard, the shaky foundation that could be eroding in the home building space. "fast money" is back in two. lo? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now.

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of chipotle pairing losses after hours. beating earnings expectations but missing on revenues. kate rodgers has the latest. hey, kate. >> melissa, as you said, mixed third quarter for chipotle, beat on eps, slight revenue miss, first since july of 2023. same store sales also a slight miss, grew 6%, a little lower than estimates of up 6.3%.

the company grew traffic again in the quarter by more than 3%. it also got a boost from smoked brisket which surpassed expectations according to interim ceo scott boatwright. he anticipates it will last through the fourth quarter on the menu. they did see increased costs for food and beverage and packaging, noting inflation and a few key ingredients, namely avocados and dairy, also higher usage of ingredients, as it focused on generous portions. this increase partially offset by the benefit of menu price increases. honey chicken has been testing well, ready to roll out nationally. he told us on "overtime" the consumer remains extraordinary resilient and seeing growth from all income cohorts, a rarity in this environment. sales were soft coming into the quarter but chipotle saw a strong acceleration as it went on. the stock is down by 4% but it was down by more than 7 when

this report crossed the wires. back over to you. >> theoretically, kate, chicken offerings should help margins because it is a lower cost, that's what we heard from mcdonald's and the chicken big m mac. >> one more note, both the smoked brisket which is a more expensive offering and then this chicken menu addition, the limited time offers boatwright said have been surpassing expectations, performing better than the company had anticipated that could wind up boosting earnings and revenues in the quarters to come. we'll see. >> kate, thank you. kate rodgers. normally you think 6% same store sales would be a pretty good number for anybody else except cava that would be a terribly disappointing number. it's just to me just, you know, it's a victim of its own success, the valuation is just too high. the quarter wasn't bad, i mean, it wasn't as good as people hoped but it wasn't bad. >> no pun intended but we are in the digestion portion of the trade with cmg. >> do you know what we have not

said all night. >> burrito blowout. i might say it on my way home tonight. right now, no. to karen's point, 6% comp is great but go back a look and look at what the comps were compared to what the street is looking for and then you saw the growth. not so much now. margins have been not decelerating but not as robust as they were which suggests the company is getting mature. it happens but where do you buy the stock not where you sell it. it's had a runoff of 49 to current levels, maybe it gets down to 54.5 or 55 and you buy it. >> 98% of the stores are here. that premium at valuation, yes, it was a brian niccol premium and that one you will see starbucks and those two compared for the foreseeable future, but it's still a growth company. i think you're paying for international growth. >> another after hours mover, snap jumping after hours on a profit beat. julia boorstin has all the details.

>> shares higher after snap's third quarter results beat on the top and bottom line with the company's 443 million daily active users, more than estimated. in terms of snap's guidance, its outlook for fourth quarter adjusted ebitda is a hair of estimates though revenue guidance range of 1.51 to $1.56 billion is mostly below the $1.56 billion analyst estimate. snap showed that its effort to diversify the ad business are working. ongoing momentum with its direct response products and growth in the small and medium-sized businesses contributed to total active advertisers more than doubling from the year earlier quarter. another ad supported platform that is soaring in after hours is reddit, in its third report as a public company reddit announcing a surprise profit of 16 cents per share, analysts had been expecting a 7 cent per

share loss. also growing revenue 68% over the year earlier quarter to $348 million beating estimates of $313 million also guiding to fourth quarter revenue in a range ahead of estimates. melissa, shares are now up over 21%. back over to you. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin. catch evan spiegel on money movers tomorrow for a cnbc exclusive interview. up 7% now which is relatively tame compared to past moves on earnings, dan. >> usually very volatile. expectations i guess are usually much higher. they were pretty low right here. the street hates this at least analysts, 25% on the street rate the stock a buy, that's it. when you think about this rejiggering of ad business, going to direct response, what does that remind you of? instagram and they're really good at t when you think about this company, they are growing users 850 million monthly active users on a $5.5 billion revenue

base, starting to make money, the growth coming off of the eps growth of a business. a lot of folks have confidence in evan spiegel. this is one where i think you will probably get behind it because there's very few places to put digital ad dollars for direct response that are working obviously reddit sounds like it's one of them. >> definitely. they're always in the investment stage, always trying to come out with new things, my kids still use snap, teenagers using snap. when you look at the chart i don't disagree with dan, it looks like it's ready and torqued for a pop but it always fails, too, after a certain amount of time, people get bored with it. i would be cautious, use stops in the name. >> coming up a builder beat down, d.r. authority.en getting beat down. plus one week after the big day and both candidates are making final pushes to the white house. nbc's steve kornacki will join us for a look into the state of the race and what early voting numbers could tell us. you're watinchg "fast money."

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of dr horton dropping more than 7% after missing top and bottom like expectations this morning. the home builder forecasting

2025 revenue and home deliveries below estimates saying volatile mortgage rates are keeping buyers on the sidelines, the results pulling down fellow home builders as well, lennar, pultegroup and toll brothers all lower in sympathy. there was some thinking that management was extremely cautious and conservative on this guidance because why not. you have the elections, people standing by, maybe a home buyer tax credit in the next administration. >> fair enough. missing on just about every metric they put out is something else. nothing to be conservative about, they flat out missed. 19% decline year over year in backlog in a stock that's not cheap compared to its peers. you say wait a second there's something going on here. you sort of play this forward, what's happening in the housing market? rates are going higher, regardless of the reasons why, they're going higher and if the unemployment rate starts to tick up there will be serious headwinds in this housing trade. this is a huge uptrend line, you have to be really careful here. >> the housing names are always

going to be sensitive to interest rates, they're more sensitive because they cater to the first time home buyer and they also are spec builders which mean they build before they have a buyer. they have land costs that are totally circulating, even without a buyer, even if nothing happens, if you have to be in the home build ever trade you go to toll brothers, more affluent, and they pay cash versus they're not as reliant on interest rates. >> this is not an outlier. i mean, we've heard it now, we had sherwin-williams, we had mohawk, we had stanley, black & decker today in terms of just saying things are not that good, higher rates are not doing us any favors here. >> right. three, four weeks ago rates were much lower. >> 7% on mortgages. >> i know, it's like the 50 basis -- never happened. >> never happened. >> and the prospects for seven cuts is out the window for sure in this environment right now, so i think you're right to be caught that they are being cautious, they should be

cautious. we'll see if things clear up somewhat after the election, but, you know, they had to do a lot of mortgage pay downs where they basically help you with -- create a cheaper mortgage that's expensive. we'll see. >> it will be interesting to see lenders if they got turned around in a month. there was a lot of refis, stuff going on, this sort of movement in a 30-year mortgage is not something too many of us have seen in a long time. >> coming up, the earnings keep rolling in, caesar, visa, mondelez and more all on the move, the details from the quarters next. plus one week away from the presidential race it is neck and neck. where both candidates stand in the final stretch before election day, nbc's steve kornacki joins us to dig into the details. back in two. tamra, izzy and emma... they respond to emails with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there.

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welcome back to "fast money." the nasdaq setting a record close for the first time since july rising 0.8%, the s&p knowledge notching a small gain, the dow dragged down by home depot and travelers. shares of shoe retailer crocs plummeting nearly 20%, lowering the full year outlook citing

weakness from the hey dude brand, guy's favorite. shares of tenet haelt jumping nearly 17%, the company raising guidance. caesars lower after missing on the top and bottom line. visa beating expectations and first solar dropping after lowering guidance. just one week until election day and the race still appears to be nickeck and neck. how should investors be handicapping the outcome. let's get to the titan of the touch screen, nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki. it's tight. >> you've got it. what you're looking at this is our average of all the major national polls that are out there right now and you see the advantage for harris over trump right here sits at 1.1 points nationally. a couple things we could say about that. first this is closer than the polls were the last time donald trump -- the last two times trump ran at this point in 2020 he was about 7.5 points behind

joe biden in the polls and he was about 4.5 points behind hillary clinton at this point in 2016. one thing that this tightness reflects what the polls have been telling us, we will see if this happens on election day. trump has broadened his support demographically. more nonwhite support, particularly more hispanic support. he may have built some support in states that are big but not part of the battleground, places like new york, places like california that might be tightening this national race in a way we haven't seen before. >> how about congress, steve, how does it shape up there so far? >> yeah, we can show you, just by the way these are the state battleground averages as well, again, the head line they are extremely close in the states, the biggest margin in the average 1.5 points. when you talk about congress, start on the senate side, democrats right now with a tenuous 51/49 advantage over the republicans. simply put if the republicans want to get the senate the easiest path would be this, you have this west virginia, these

are the seats that are up this year, it's a blue seat right now, joe manchin has the seat, not running for reelection, both parties admit that the republicans are going to win this seat. if the republicans just get west virginia as expected, and don't lose anything else, they're up to 50 and all they would need at that point is to have trump win the election because then the tie-breaking vote in the senate would be cast by trump's vice president, j.d. vance, they would get the senate that way. there's other targets, jon tester, democrat, up for reelection in montana, that's a tall order for tester, given that montana is expected to be lopsidedly pro trump, sherrod brown in ohio up here, again, ohio expected to be a pretty solid trump state. a couple other obvious opportunities there on the senate side for republicans to make gains. where could democrats make gains? there aren't many options for them. they're putting a lot into texas, ted cruz up for reelection against colin jaul red, ted cruz has led the polls by a small margin. trump expected to win texas. that's a tough run there for

democrats. the odds are certainly favoring the republicans getting the senate. taking a look at the house side, there are three vacancies right now but you see how close it is on the house side. i think one thing to plant a side for for folks is there are about a dozen seats between new york and california that could end up deciding control of the house. if we are waiting on results from california districts, which is very possible, it's worth pointing out that california is basically the slowest vote counting state in the country, it can literally take weeks to get results from some of these california districts. so if the house is tight, we may not know house control until the end of november. >> wow. steve, thank you. always great to see you. >> you got it. >> the one and only steve kornacki. >> amazing. stocks appear to be rallying on the expectation of a trump win but prospects of a rising deficit seem to be spooking the

bond market. for more on what the markets are telling us let's bring in michael schumacher. great to see you. you were joking the last time you were here the ten year yield was 60 basis points lower, i think that was in september. what is the bond market telling us at this point? >> bond market is telling me i better stay away in december, to me the bond market is pricing in the trump trade pretty clearly. i was in asia last week, we saw countless investors across a number of countries and i would say 90% of the questions i got were about trump. what would trump do? would he really spend this amount of money? what about the tariffs? i kept thinking the race is 55/45, 60/40 it's very close and yet people were skewed toward trump already winning. i think they priced in a lot of that. seems to me if harris wins yields come down pretty substantially. >> paul tudor jones last week on "squawk box" i want to say sam

druckenmiller the week before, stan 20% of his portfolio is short bonds, paul tudor jones said similar. they have a view on rates going higher. what are your thoughts on that? >> maybe a little bit higher, it's tough to see yields going substantially higher at this point. i think you need a huge spending plan out of trump. trump to win, republican sweep, if trump talks up another percentage point or two in the deficit, maybe that kind of thing would spook the markets, but they've run so much already, pricing for the fed has gone up by 70 basis points i think in terms of terminal rate, it's pretty spooky. i can't see a heck of a lot more from there. >> you heard steve talk about the possibility of us not knowing who controls the house and potentially who controls congress, maybe even the actual presidential election until the end of november because california is such a slow vote counting state. in that scenario what sort of volatility should investors be bracing for and are investors actually positioning for that heightened prolonged volatility? >> i think investors are not positioned for heightened volatility. >> should they be in your view?

>> they should be. they should be taking down some risk right now or maybe adding volatility protection, melissa. when you think about it it's comparatively cheap in some markets, foreign exchange, equity is not too bad, interest rates a bit higher. we could see an instance in which it's not clear who the next president is for a week or two, and the house who knows, three, four weeks according to steve, senate perhaps a while as well. people just aren't geared toward that. they seem to think we will wake up november 6, maybe the 7th and it's all clear, i think that's very unlikely. >> what do you make of the idea -- you guys covered the fundamentals of the trade. what do you make of the idea of price triggers with cta accounts, you get to a certain level and people have to reverse whatever trade they put on. i'm hearing what was r that was a big aspect of it. >> could be some of that. how much of that is still to go and how much is played out? i would argue 60 odd basis points move in the ten year in the span of about a month that's a pretty full move. seems to me it's unlikely we

will see more of that technical type of flow. it's going to be more fundamental from here, at least that's my thought. >> overall, though, what is your overarching view to year-end? we might have a few weeks of volatility but we end the year what? higher than here? >> it's so conditional on the election. >> okay. >> if it's a sweep, i'd say yields go up a bit and then gradually start to come down. if it is harris winning it's divided government you probably get much more of a sharp move down quickly and yields find a home. my general bias is post election yields drop but the road between now and then is so tough you can't make a year-end call in my view, it's got to be if this happens in the election then x in the bond market. >> michael, thanks for coming by. michael schumacher, wells fargo. >> katie stockton a week or so ago felt the tlt could bottom in the near future. today you saw glimpses of that. clearly the tlt reversed on the back of a decent auction and i think maybe yields maybe ten year get down to 415 but i am

still firmly in the higher rates by the end of the year camp. >> do not miss special coverage on election night all night long we have results as they come in and reaction from the biggest names in business. it starts at 7:00 p.m. eastern time from the new york stock exchange right here on cnbc. coming up, a slate of, still to come this week and next. we are diving into what investors are expecting from eli lilly's telast quarter. more "fast money" right after this. ♪ i wanna hold you forever ♪ hey little bear bear. ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "fast money." eli lilly on deck to report tomorrow, investors looking to see how strong growth will be for the pharma giant's glp-1 drugs. lilly shares hit an all time high in late august but have been range bound since then. competitor novo nordisk which had been tracking with lilly earlier this year has been under pressure lately, up 8% so far this year. this could be pivotal for this trade, lilly of course has the alzheimer's drug as well in the pipeline. >> we've looked at novo and said huge support level that it breached and actually trades worse now than eli lilly. they seem to have found a home around 885, 89, looks like novo has room to the down side. i like limby more than novo at

these levels. >> the competition and i use that sort of broadly because nobody has the money in the manufacturing capacity that lilly or novo has, the competition is increasing out there and just pfizer on the conference call was talking about -- talking up its obesity pipeline which is in granted earlier stages than either of these. >> for a while, though, the competition isn't a threat yet. >> for a while. >> nobody is close yet. but, i mean, the numbers continue to grow and grow, it's extraordinary that it hasn't plateaued at all but sort of keeps accelerating. so, i mean, they also have their own competition within their own, right -- they're trying to come up with their own oral. >> right. >> you have to think they are a pretty good candidate to win that fight maybe. i don't know. i'm long lilly, it is not cheap by any stretch, but staying in it. >> novo looks interesting, down 25% from recent highs, expected 25% earnings growth in the next couple years, trades at 25 times, you can do that math,

guy, probably, right? to me this looks like a good one to take a shot on because of what you guys just said, the competition it's coming, it's not there yet and it seems like this is going to be as more volume comes online it seems like you will have more scripts. >> i don't mind it for a trade, i think you're right because it's been so beaten down, but lilly longer term, it feels like a would you rather rather here. you started it. >> i didn't start anything. >> pfizer. >> rather rather pfizer? >> no i think that you would. >> i wasn't saying anything. >> glp-1s it's becoming more competitive. >> she is the host of a program. >> they are in phase two. to karen's point they are further behind, in phase two trials, i'd rather stick with the winner lilly. more health care earnings in the next hour, jim is chatting with the ceo of pfizer, catch the full interview top of the hour on mad money. coming up on fast how traders are handling the drops in paypal and jetblue, nor "fa meyin

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digits. jetblue sinking 17% despite a smaller than expected loss per share and a revenue beat. the airline giving a full year revenue forecast below expectations as election uncertainty weighs on travel plans. too bad tim is not here. paypal is the p in blicep. >> it's rallied 45% to yesterday's close a 52-week high, well below the all time highs a few years ago. when guiding to low single digits you look at that multiple at 16.5 times it's not particularly great. a good margin story but, again, this company is not growing. something has to happen here especially after that rally expectations were high. >> what's going on with jetblue compared to the other airlines? >> go back to 2007, i mean, loo look whether where the stock was, the subsequent run, and where we're getting down towards now, it's pretty remarkable. jetblue is it's own animal. you will see disastrous this has been. you basically have to stay away, it trades 10 million shares a

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one more check on some of tonight's earnings movers, alphabet is higher by 5.4%, snap up 7.25 and chipotle down by 4.6%. big stories tomorrow. time for the final trade. steve. >> knx, the sport strike will be back in the headlines after the election. >> karen. >> yes, a segment in google tomorrow, i will be selling upside calls and hello, terry. >> hello, teary. >> cme group should benefit from the volatility group. hi, terry. i like novo. >> guy.

>> that's terry duffy, one of the long-standing fans of cnbc's "fast money." >> yes. >> by the way, mar tee in a's parents they are so proud of their daughter and they should be proud. southwest air, mel, i think it goes higher. >> thank you for watching "fast money." see you ck hbaere tomorrow night at my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to "cramerica.". my friends, i'm just trying to make a little money. my job not just to entertain but to put days like today into context because they are nutty. call me 1-800-743-cnbc, tweet me @jimcramer. the bond market is screwing things up. bonds are wrecking the