meke he never got to meet. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [theme music] ♪ welcome to "squawk box." it's 8:00 a.m. here in london, 9:00 a.m., stock markets up for trade. wall street was mixed. fresh records in the tech sector thanks to the nasdaq climbing but the dow was in retreat, so a lot of positioning happening stateside. here in the uk, it's a budget day, investors are counting down

to details from chancellor rachel reeves' speech. as we get going, we can see caution picking up where we left off in europe, down 0.6% on the benchmark yesterday. and similar declines as we get going from the outset this morning. let me take you to various different sectors on the move. and you can see these are some of the gainers, we have another profit upgrade losing track from upgrades from the retailer. retail stocks as you can see are slightly below the flat line there. we've got construction flat lining, too, telecom is slightly down due to utilities. these are the best performers. let's take a look at the opposite end of retail picking up speed there. let's take a look at the bottom of the boards. autos trading down more than 1%. no thanks to volkswagen, we had an update from the company

showing us just how painful the journey is as we see stepped up competition from the likes of the chinese. and negotiations taking place on the ground with unions today. so that sector under pressure. travel retreating by similar amounts. basic resources down 0.9%. and individually, this is how we're setting up at the start, we are seeing the initial point weaken right across the board on the market. the ftse, as we talk about a budget day, investors are cautious, slipping below 0.08 points. and exceeding some of the losses on the downside of the markets, french market down three quarters percent. down a half percent on the stock. so it this retreat, ahead of the election, there is a lot of talk

whether there could be a trump victory and leaving europe on the back foot. so is it just early positioning and the week and days after -- week after the u.s. election. let's take a look at what we're seeing in terms of those smaller indices, also downbeat, half a percent off plus off the spanish market. from stocks to switzerland, to the aex, dutch side, portuguese market all showing reversal. big earning day, too. banks in particular. ubs crushed expectations posted a net profit of $1.4 billion, again $700 million forecast by analysts in the company-provided poll. a reported return on cet capital, 7.6%. and on the climb side, posting $24 billion in assets. on track to hit the four-year target of $100 billion. let's get out to an nannettemoo.

we have seen transactions and activity. >> reporter: yes, indeed, i think it's fair to say, it's quite astonishing that they have such good operating results given the gigantic task they're doing at the same time, integrating credit suisse, the second in a year in switzerland, so that integration is going quite well according to the management. the ceo also told me that next year will be the big step. because the big migration, client migration, in switzerland, will start next year. take a listen to what he had to say. >> we are confident in a healthy way. we are not complacent. we've been planning this carefully over the last few quarters. what we see, the migration we

did, early on, this month, in luxenburg and in hong kong over the last weekend have been successful. we have learned a lot out of this, now we're going through the migration in singapore. and migration in switzerland in three or four phases. we try to spread the client migration across the next fuel quarters and that's clearly something that we think is more manageable. we are not merging systems, we are migrating client data which also makes it a little bit easier. having said that, of course, this remains the biggest risk. and i'm counfident it is a mattr of time and not if we do it or not. >> reporter: so what is a bit cautious is the outlook. of course, the big el ephant in the room is the outcome of the

u.s. election. in another part of the interview, he was telling me no matter what the result will be the end result, we'll most likely see much more uncertainty and volatility in that very big market. ubs, it's the biggest single market, the americas, for their business. and of course, what happens in the states is ultimately very important for the profit outlook for ubs as well. and the economic outlook, according to sergio ermotto seems to be impact, with what he said with dealmaking. with wall street there will be a pickup, so listen in. >> the central banks and the u.s., also, they did a pretty good job in taking down inflations without creating a recession. still, labor market is solid and consumers are still quite positive. having say that, the inflation, core inflation, is still

about -- still about target rate, so i think the result, there's no room for complacency there. because if something goes wrong on the geopolitical front or the supply chain, or across the globe on the energy side of the equation, that could bring back inflation and one has to be careful not expecting too many cut rates shortly. >> what do you think of the ami, with wall street, i'm expecting a strong pickup. are you seeing that as well? >> i think. as we look at the pipeline for the deals, deals we are winning and have not yet announced to be executed, not only m and a, but ipos and other market transactions is very healthy. now, it remains to be seen if market conditions are going to be there to contact date there.

but it's quite clear that there is potentially a lot of opportunities in the foreseeable future. >> reporter: so, given the outlook for the banking scene, if you listen to what he actually had to say about how they are positioned, they're not very much dependent on interest rates. they are dependent, of course, on the management unit. but that is growing especially in the apec region and americas. also, if you look ahead to m & a activity, if that is going to pick up, also ipos, if we extrapolate that into the new year, we should probably be optimistic also about the medium term outlook for earnings for the likes of ubs, at least for banks top positioned in m & a

advisers and also ipo advisers. annette, thank you so much. just on the chart and rankings on the stoxx 600, silvia, you're looking closely at that one. >> yes. shares up almost 3%, this, after the company topped expectations with more than 170% jump in third quarter pre-tax profit. that came in at $1.7 billion. sant lander up. and the impact of china's recent stimulus announcements. >> major thing has been enacted, continued to be enacted with what is to happen next week, it's important, and the

standard, very coordinated. you're seeing the government all coming to the help of the market. from our point of view, in terms of impact, it's very much in the rear view mirror. we have taken our medicine when we had to, our numbers reflect it. >> 1 billion and -- >> in the past, and right now that is -- that is something that does not affect us going forward. i think that this time, and the proof in the pudding really next week, this time, these measures feel different. >> now, in other corporate stories we heard from volkswagen, they reported an operating profit that has plunged more than 40% in the third quarter. that's amid high costs and poor performance in its core passenger car unit. the group operating profit margin dropped to just 2% in the first nine months as well which the cfo said it showed an urgent

for significant cost reductions and efficiency improvements. this is the world's second largest, that threatens plant closures as well as cuts. a second round of talks between the company and unions is kicking off at 10:00 a.m. gmt. now, gsk lowered its vaccine sales for the second time. amid the rsv and shingles vaccines. after the giant posted a beat on the third quarter, coming in at 2.75 billion pounds shares at this stage down 2.5%. >> and sandoz actually increased their growth after sales came in at $2.6 billion that's up 12% on the year. driven by the similars. the giant that spun off from its

core last year with guidance around 20%. in the retail space, we heard from next, they upgraded their annual profit guidance to more than 1 billion pounds, the first time it's lifted its output in months. and that's to shoppers wrapping up amid cooler temperatures. >> thank you, silvia, you can see the stocks affecting the big movers this morning, the top gainers. the company i'm watching very closely is puig. this company was atop the markets starting at trade. and then reflected the numbers that crossed the third quarter. 11.6% revenue in the third quarter outperforming the premium beauty market, so you're seeing reaction to those numbers in particular, acceleration in fragrances so proving to be

somewhat resilient in the numbers, regency and ubs, some of the top performers just moving off that gains list but they have been pretty near the market this morning. in terms s of the losers, you'r seeing across the board, capgem min ini coming and anglo-american moving well on the charts as well. and it did not start trading -- i should say started trading down at 13% initially on the back of some its numbers today. let's get to the head of investments. let's just talk about the day of the year, halloween as well. the market is somewhat upbeat. we're hearing again about this tight rope the chancellor has to walk, big black wall in terms of

finances. >> yeah. >> yet money required for investments. what do you expect? >> well, i think there's been a lot of threats, hasn't there? it feels like it's been death by a thousand threats, this one. i think we all just want to talk about something other than the budget. it's just been -- you know, there's been leak after leak amp leak, things tested. but we're starting to see it's probably not as bad as what's been threatened a month ago. i think that's pretty difficult, isn't it, they want to test things, see what the reaction is. we'll have to see, it's a very difficult bounce. how you can see your pro growth and basically increase tax rates. at least they're going after national insurance which is the same thing. basically, it's an increased tax on companies. and it does seem like the ruling back on some of the threats are on capital gains tax. that's quite mopositive, they don't want to give people an incentive to arbitrary taxes in

the uk. >> this seems to -- not willing to rock the boat so much, maybe they're not just saying it in public with economic conditions some of these companies need to protect their profit markets. so do they end up taking a tougher line in terms of the labor markets here and it's going to cost them more in costs and don't necessarily get that, does that mean it ties them to bills? >> it's a balancing act, isn't it, ten months into this government, there's a lot more budgets to come and could change in the future. the thing i can't reconcile is the cool business mantra and increasing tax mantra. i think you can get away with the previous government getting away, some point after your honeymoon period and that becomes your problem. it's interesting, now talking about trying to go back to the labor government of the '90s, sort of the heyday of modern

labor. but it was different then. things could only get better, it was trying to save, and lots of opportunities. continually talking in fashion and talking to recession just doesn't seem very wise. >> that is an interesting term because we saw numbers from next today. it feels like we've had a steady stream of earnings from high street retailers where they're benefitting from pause of sentiment out there. consumers are still buying things. changing their behavior, but the reality is, they're still buying what they can, where they can. does that change, where we're talking about some sort of pressure that's coming on the labor market. without an industry cut, maybe that helps out at the margin, v.a.t., tensions going up. we're talking about whether businesses take a tougher line thanks to the budget. does it get harder on the high street? >> you got to imagine, it must get harder and you see it's happening in europe.

with european specific issues but half of europe is going into recession at some point that contagion effect is likely to hit the uk. but, yeah, it's bewildering that we continue to see improvement in the retail sales environment. and interest rates are still quite high. obviously, we're not hearing the bank talking about decreasing rates, and talking about how inflation is falling faster than they expect. but we're not seeing the cuts and interest rates that we would have seen earlier this year. >> complicated fact is that we may not be talking about inflation declining. feels like we are. and we're coming up to a u.s. election. with a trump presidency, inflation comes back, particularly when it comes to goods. >> it's the basic, year on year change in prices. you don't have to get too much of say pickup on general price levels in order for that to become inflationary. what's interesting, it's moved

into the focus, the borrowing right for the government, both in the uk and the u.s., and that they're not going to curtail spending. and then to talk about how bad the state of public finances are and there's a lot of issue anissueing of rating. >> i think the tech stocks, again, we're seeing the realized earnings, from one of your earlier guests on the show. this is different to the '90s and the original tech bubble. because we've seen the investment and now we're seeing the return coming through, so with alphabet, i suspect later with meta and microsoft. but i thought it was an interesting statistic that a quarter of code is in generative a.i. it's phenomenal. >> hey, thanks so much.

haig at atom smd os. and capgemini ceo after the break.

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♪ ♪ a quick look at one stock that we're watching this morning, that is asmi. the company are planning to open up this morning, initially, on the back of its third quarter earnings, but, of course, that's when it lays its guidance. the stock initially holds now, you can see rallying up 6%. up 7% initially, as it jumped open after that initial

training. it's certainly been not just in the united states but here today. speaking of the u.s., alphabet shares are higher in extended trade after the tech giant beat on the top and bottom line, third quarter revenue rose, $88 billion, boosted by its cloud unit. google search business generated $39.4 billion in revenue in the period and remains the biggest contributor to revenue growth. let's push on to capgemini which has cut its 2024 outlook for the third time this year. missed on revenue expectations. eamon join us, ceo of capgemini, walk us through what you see? >> if you look at determination, in terms of outlook, what has changed since july, on one side, is the manufacturing sector, moving even faster than

expected, you know. our clients are coming up with bad news which basically gets them to trend even further some of the spend, you know, for the end of the year. positive sign around that is they say this is temporary. and they have to resume some of the investment, you know, going into next year. and the second aspect is we do see quite a bit of in the french environment, going into q4, again, more than what we expected initially. i think these two factors is really what created some revolution, you know in our outlook for the rest of the year. there are some policies, of course, the financial service sector is recovering, and we do expect to be back to gross, you know, by q4, that was one of the biggest headwinds for us at the beginning of the year. also the headwinds we had in tech is resolving and that, again, is quite positive going into next year. and finally, you know, the

appetite for clients around transformation is quite high. you know, we start to generate good am of booking coming out of generative a.i. $600 million for the first month of the year. we can see it scales up in terms of business and the client, really starting to invest a bigger amount of money for change. and the pipeline overall with deals continues to increase quite a bit which means the appetite to climb with transformation is there. so these are the positives, you know, going into next year, even if we have to forgive some of the short-term headwinds, because clients are trimming the spend for the end of the year to preserve. you know. >> right. you did headline for us there could be issues when it came to sectors that you exposed from autos to the various spaces, to the financial services areas of the market. but does that mean we're seeing

cutback only in area where is they can cut back? i mean, what are the areas that businesses think they don't need to spend at this stage in the i.t. story? >> you know, it's not a question of spend. you know, any program can be delayed. all that it did is pushing up some investment to the future. so, we don't see cancellation. we don't see people say i'm not doing it anymore. what we see people saying, i'm slowing down a certain thing, or i'm delaying because i need to preserve, and cap costs for this year. and that's what we're seeing, of course, abccumulation of what w call bad news on this front, basically having an impact, having an impact on the top line in q4, for example in france, in france, we see really steep cuts in manufacturing, spend moving into q4. again, we don't expect that

something to continue into 2025, but at least in the short term, it's action that companies are taking. and, yes, auto and aerospace that we are seeing as well in other manufacturing clients, mostly in france and in germany. >> i was going to ask you about the different spread until jurisin jurisdictions. i was talking to policymakers how bad the german market is, is it the german market that's underperforming or is it france and germany? >> no, it's germany, in general, we're seeing cuts. in the auto sector in germany, at the end of the year, you know the auto manufacturers are really trimming quite a bit. but at the same time, you know, we've seen our discussions, very large opportunities to actually drive some of the transformation of, you know, some of these companies. so on one side there is cuts in spending in the short term, you know, to be able to basically

navigate to the end of the year, but also big plans in terms of transformation which are large opportunities for us going into next we're. so it's both, actually. >> and we're seeing results while out of the u.s. tech giants and reality is google is seeing the benefits from a.i., microsoft later on and announcement from the big financial services company. ubs talking about using co-pilot. is some of the money we're talking about just being redirected to u.s. giants that are at the forefront of a.i.? >> so, i mean, clients are initially investing in infrastructure around a.i. and generative a.i., this is what's happening. some consumption is coming as a result of that. we're starting to see growth, people are looking, the environment, we start to see quite a bit of growth in generative a.i. last year, 3.5% of our booking might increase towards the end of the year. of course it could be a bigger impact, because it has the

environment to be able to deliver more of the generative a.i. capability and services is going to increase quite a bit going into next year. so that's a positive actually from that perspective. >> aiman, thank you for joining us, we appreciate your time. ahead on the show, rachel reeves prepares to deliver her first budget as uk chancellor, hoping not to spook the markets. we'll give you more after this. ♪

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uncertainty. >> no matter who wins the outcome, we expect some market movements. and it remains to be seen how investors react. >> pre-tax profit more than doubles with a playout pledge saying it will focus on investment and its wealth business. >> we have had 12% grossing the top line. and over 30% growth in the bottom line. if you think about engines of growth, the general business that sour wealth management business has grown at over 30% year on year. >> alphabet's cloud division delivers blowout results pushing annual revenues 13% higher in the third quarter with the search and youtube businesses slow. meanwhile, a.i. surge as the chipmaker boosts its sales in the third quarter. ♪

time now to get a check on european equities which has been trading for just over 30 minutes. and at this stage, what we're seeing is negative sentiment, really, across the board when you think about how the stoxx 600 is trading down at this stage, down 0.5%. continuing that negative tone that we witnessed on tuesday when the benchmark ended the day down almost 0.6%. looking at different budgets across the continent. looking at the ftse 100, down 0.2%. it's a very important day for uk investors, as we prepare to hear from chancellor rachel reeves, presenting her physical budget for the new labor government as well. there's a lot of anxiety what

tax increases we'll see. looking at european at this stage, cac down 0.7%. this is despite economical data out of france suggesting that gdp actually came in a little bit above expectations, provided they received basically a boost from the paris olympics. i want to take you to the different sectors as well so you understand a little bit better what are some of the corporate stories we're monitoring this morning. looking at the best-performing sectors at this stage, we're only seeing a little bit of green when it comes to construction material, financial services and retail. and indeed, when you look at these numbers very muted. so, i want to take you to the other side of the story because it is the worst performing sectors that are most relevant at this stage in early deals in europe. we are seeing quite a bit of pressure when it comes to food and beverage, as well as household goods down 1%. one stock under pressure within the sector is monclaire, the

stock is down, at the moment, more than 2%. this after the third quarter result actually came in below expectations, we've seen deutsche bank relation rbc cutting their target prices for this stock. but overall, the picture this morning, karen, is quite negative as you think about european equities. we'll see if that might change throughout the day. >> silvia, thank you very much. uk chancellor rachel reeves will plan to invest, invest, invest in her budget speech today. the governing labor party first in almost 15 years and the first ever for a female chancellor. and treasury sources have told sky news there is a 14 billion pound black hole in the country's finances, suggesting tax rises and spending cuts will be required in some areas to avoid spooking the markets.

deutsche bank said it expects the budget to contain the single biggest increase in spending up 35 billion pounds. and ral eyeing in early trade with the ten-year yield around five basis points. and speaking exclusively to the minister of state, douglas alexander on the sidelines of the fii in riyadh, and what investors need to know after the announcements. >> what they need to know after years of uncertainty in british politics, britain is back and we're open for business. with the fiscal impaired balance sheet we inherited delivers economic stability. delivers economic investment and delivers policy reform. that's going to be the major subject for the house of commons. >> joining us, former investment minister of uk. thank you for joining us. >> good morning, great to be here, great day.

>> we've had a lot of leaks, a bit of a leaky ship. what are you expecting? >> i'm afraid i'm expecting what i forecast, i came on the show four months ago, during the election, just before the election this year, i said i'll come back in a year's time and we'll have a whole new rate, and i'm afraid i'm early, seven or eight months early, it's only four months later and we're already seeing what i think is quite significant fiscal regulation into this economy which i don't welcome, to be honest. >> we know the government is painting it as a picture that it's mismanagement of public finances by your government, conservative government, 22 billion, black hole, 42 billion black hole, it keeps growing. should they be more careful with the nation's finances? >> it's a very good question. i think the torii was exce exceptional with the finances.

i think we did the right thing making sure people didn't actually suffer through that period and that was massively expensive. i'm not sure about the black holes. i don't really trust them. they keep changing their mind, i think it's disingenuous. and it's certainly true, they left a massive hole and we have to use that as an excuse to then raise a lot of taxes. it's the natural political strategy. it's called the big squeeze. you squeeze people in the beginning and they forget about the fact you that raised their taxes. and at the end of the election, you give people goodies and giveaways. to be honest, i thought labor would be better than that i thought they would be insteader? instead earlier, and they're not. >> and from a headline per inspect, internationally, people think what the chancellor could be delivering is actually good news for the economy. in fact, talking about not

spending day-to-day means, spending money for the investments, let's face it, investment needs are growing. tick, tick, tick, in terms of how the international market has received this. but it's quite different from what people feel on the ground in terms what they could be facing to repair the finances. talk about what means on the ground here and in the uk? >> well, it's great she's going to invest more. to encourage investment is a good thing. labor can do one good thing, increase planning and build. to do things like environmental protections, that's to be seen. but if they can do that, then huge investment can flow into those areas. my problem is they talk about the economy -- its disingenuous, it's still a great economy. i'm not coming here saying the economy's going down the tubes. it isn't. phenomenal opportunities and activity here. and they've got to talk it up,

because what they're doing is talking the economy down. they're also sending out very dangerous signals and international investors not welcome, et cetera. and they're going to raise taxes potentially on foreign buyers in the uk, so these sort of things send out signals to people that the uk, with animal spirits, and they don't need to do it. >> we've heard a lot in different circle it's about nonedoms. and how they're contributing to the economy and the view from the labor government seems to punish these people -- >> why do you want to punish these people? >> well, is there that where there's a higher tax required you that want to punish the people who have the means and ability. but what the casualty here if people move and don't stay in the uk? >> i think it's huge. going back to the black hole,

they've changed their mind on non-d non non-domes. it's hugely damaging to the economy. and they said it was going to raise a lot of money, now, they say actually, people are going to leave as they will do as they feel that pain. they pay tax, it's not like they don't pay tax, with a break. they pay tax on all that they're doing here. we want the free movement of k capital ideas to have investment come to london and base themselves here is an enormous advantage. to frighten them away is a massive problem. saying they're paying and investing, it's a zero sum game. they'll just go to france or some other country. >> to try to reprofile debts and change the rules around debts so you have money for investment, do you feel like you left that

on the table? >> i left quite a few things on the table. i thought we did a huge amount. i think that's a very sensible thing in my view. looking at the concept of private public punishment. the ppp, when you had private sector in infrastructure projects. it's a great example of where it's worked really, really well. we can do a lot more. i think we got a bit scared by the brand. there were issues. actually huge opportunities that's where the big funds will get exciting. i'm optimistic. the reality of the economy is really strong. i'm not talking down the economy. it's totally unprofessional. but tax rises and inflation on moving people, these things are not fundamentally good for the economy and don't make us richer or happier. >> i'm surprised you want to use

the dead site. fiscal hawks say it's not necessary to the outcome. full don't get any productivity gain to this investment, if it doesn't get executed well, in reality, all we've done is created more debt for the juk. >> yeah, the principle is you're facing more investment in building infrastructure, as opposed to welfare. >> i just spoke to christian from germany last week. the reality is germany is replacing old infrastructure with new. >> yes. >> but there are nod profitivity gains. if we do that in the uk, we haven't gotten anything. we've got infrastructure and better facilities. what is the guarantee? >> well, there isn't. there's no guarantee on investment. it's a good idea, it's better to

shift it the other way to investment. i totally agree. the productivity gains are everything for this economy. we should think about getting fitter. having it jabbed into it and making us leaner and fitter. my push as a minister was always regulatory reform. not that the leader of the conservative paper on the principle of reform. and that's frustratie ing huge rises in public sector. there have been delays in making sure that pay was set right. but it hasn't come with the comment to reform. reform the government. and we've got to be tougher, by the way. safety, more regulations, huge regulators like the cma and fca, they are not, in my view, doing

their job. your show, get them here and roast them, karen, i want to see you do it. >> in the meantime, we have seen the long-term yields march higher. >> yes. >> and the trust government that actually spooked the market around a mini budget. >> yeah. >> are you concerned that long-term is moving higher because tourists undermine the confidence with the mini budget? >> you didncan't say it happene with the mini market -- >> you can say that. >> what i will say is interesting, what happened is post the markets went into a tailspin. here they're going into a tailspin before the budget. i think a lot of the discussions have been had in the last few weeks, i fear it will be radical, capital gains tax, of 55%, i don't actually seeing that happens. to be honest with you.

but i think yes, you're right, labor hasn't established their reputation for fiscal responsibility and for stability. you heard alexander there, to actually have delivered. the question is, the current government, it's a repeat again. and it's surprising, and it's a real issue as far as i'm concerned. they having more responsible how they talk about the economy. and how they genuinely provide growth and it's not going to come from tax hikes. >> we appreciate you weighing in. do domaenic johnson with us. we're going to bring you live coverage of reeves' speech today. asmi, better than expected results boosted by a.i., and falling chinese sales. and the share, 18% drop in third quarter profit and a warning to

a hit to fourth quarter results in lower production volumes. and puig shares atop it, beat expectations rising 11% for the period. ahead on the show, with the u.s. election less than a weekend away, how are investors trading trump? 'ldiuss wel schow investors are gearing up for the vote, next. has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

a look at some of the big tech movers in premarkets. a lot of earnings were up. this is some of the early market reaction. sales, from alphabet, a terrific set of numbers from the parent but also from google itself.

you can see the stock up 5.25%. advanced micro, down, single digit amount, 9% slump anticipated, snap, the social media channel, seeing up 9%. and reddit, speaking of social media, the company surprised with the numbers up yesterday. expecting reaction, sales growth 68% which moved the company to quarterly profit earlier than analysts had expected. so that stock expected to bounce 22%. in terms of u.s. futures, i don't think we hit a record on the nasdaq yesterday. investors are seeking big tech names on the nasdaq. don't expect it to add to the record position, third odd points to the upside. the dow also expected to recover, trading weakly yesterday, trading upside along with the s&p 500. with less than a week to go until election day, presidential candidates are making their final pitches to voters.

democratic nominee kamala harris delivered a closing argument speech in washington, d.c., at the location of former president donald trump's rally before the 6th of january capitol riot. trump held a rally in the swing state of pennsylvania, trying to win over latino voters after comments about puerto rico by a median at his madison square garden rally. our sara eisen spoke with the saudi arabia minister at the summit a few moments ago, discussing global trade at the upcoming election. >> despite all of the negative news that we hear globally, global chain is growing. >> for now, we don't know who wins the u.s. election. >> that's fine, regardless of who wins the election, we have both sides of the aisle in the white house and they're both still -- >> sure. >> -- trade has grown. that said, there are, obviously,

serious restriction that's have been booked by nations year after year. and that's backed global chain. i think currently, and the circumstances of uncertainties, we need to build bridges. >> the european commission has given the final approval for tariffs up to 45.3% on imports of chinese, showing the shares of automakers, lower. china minute still does not accept the tariffs calling them protectionist. and europeans are preparing for more american protectionism, which they'll expect no matter who wins the election. silvia is here with more. silvia, you've spoken to 32 central march bank finance mini last week. europe is not going to take it

lying down. i wonder if they see a precursor with france. and they've rolled them in forms of market distortions. >> they're rolling them out and the chinese authorities have announced several investigations and seller protective countermeasures too. the narrative around protectionism is very much on the table here. whether you look at the u.s., whether you look at europe, or indeed china. of course, they're different economies, but these are very heavy economies and whatever they do next will have implications for global growth and for oil companies out there. i also want to focus on some of the european stocks that have really, in a sense, suffered really, from the trump trade. because when you think about the performance of stocks this year, it's been quite positive. when you think of those companies about that exported oriented they've been suffering when it comes from fresh from volkswagen, of course, we have

dynamics playing here, too. overall, several have indicated there could be pressure to some parts of the market looking at these european companies. naturally in brussels, european officials are getting prepared for 93 eventuality, whether that's a trump win, whether a kamala harris win. they're behind the scenes there, preparing for whatever, whoever is in the white house. and what does that mean for european economy? what does that mean for u.s. economy? i mean, i'm very interested to find out what are the dynamics here when it comes to inflation, when it comes to global trade. there could be several themes here in termss of ramifications really. >> it's not just europe that's impacted by ed by china, it's united states. and the place of make america great. when we heard from volkswagen, it's telling us that the business is under pressure.

there is a line, cut by 2 million cars after covid and it hasn't returned. to me, one of the risks would be, if it's a trump victory, if he went after european cars with some form of a tariff. that would be deadly to an industry under pressure. >> there's a huge amount of pressure. actually, you raise the point of china here. when i spoke to european officials about, you know, how they're preparing for the election and so on, a lot of them saying that they've seen the united states focus on imposing tariffs and countermeasures on china. and they're actually hoping that that will be the main focus for the next administration, whether that's a republic or democratic administration. they're hoping that's their focus. and, therefore, will have a little bit less impact on europe itself. but, again, this, again, could actually just be hopeful thinking, really. >> to this point around the volkswagen, saying we're confident we can reach

agreements with unions but can't rule out strikes. that seems like a similar term in the united states. you've got businesses under pressure, but pressure from labor unions to trying to catch up with the cpr increases over the years. people feel they're left out and companies have done well. when you look at the narrative companies have been under pressure, as they grieve their business, keep up with rising costs and regearing supply chains, regearing supply chains has been an issue, too. >> that's been this stimulus we've seen in the united states. the inflation act was actually meant to help automakers in the transition. despite that support, it's also under pressure. whether that's inflation, whether it's strikes. so i wonder what's the maneuver here. >> yeah, to me, it's interesting if there's any change if there is a trump win, inflation reduction act, if they do get stepped back with the stimulus as well because it feels like it's been an arms race tryings

to get ahead. >> problem for the europeans, they have a lot of fiscal power here, on top of that, 27 different countries, 27 different regulations, so can they do that. >> silvia, thank y fouor that. more on that on cnbc.com. more with "squawk box." we'll be right back.

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