and quarterly results from cater pill e caterpillar, and eli lilly, wednesday, october 30th, ooh ooh ooh, 2024, what is it, you're supposed to put toilet paper on your neighbor's bush? >> yeah, i won't say toilet paper -- >> not you. >> no! >> "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. and welcome to "squawk box." right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick, along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and here we go, we are looking forward to the open this morning. ahead of that, you do see mod

diffmodest advances. dow is down known. first time a losing streak, if that's the case for the month, only two more trading days. s&p 500 up by 15, nasdaq indicated up by 44. it closed at a record high, first time in a while, nasdaq at record high, and dow losing some ground. in yesterday's session up by 0.8%. the s&p up slightly, dow down by 144 points. take a look at treasury market as the yields continue to tick higher there. highest yield since july. ten-year closed at 4.23, this morning. it's 4.22. and gold prices hitting a new high, $2,096. just below $2,800 an ounce.

bitcoin up 8%. 72,572. >> wow, almost set a record. >> from the high it set back in march. squawk planner, busy day for payroll. coming up, 8:15 eastern time. and petito at -- gdp at 8:30. and earnings, caterpillar, kraft, eli lilly before the opening bell. and david ricks from eli lilly, in the 8:00 hour. and microsoft, starbucks and a lot more. >> can i tell you something exciting just for us because we like these types of things. david ricks is coming on, right? so the -- i can't believe this, but the estimate for lilly, 1.47. >> okay.

>> zepbound. the weight loss drug. >> right. >> i think revenue probably rose to 12 billion from 9 billion supposedly. >> okay. >> 1.47. what did they earn last year? ten cents. so the net income last year was $95 million. this year, it's going to be 1.3 billion. it's a 15% price gouging increase in this pharmaceutical -- they had a charge last year of $2.8 billion for in progress, research and development. so it goes from ten cents to 1.47. senator warren and senator sanders, i'm just giving you some stuff here. you can use this and not explain it. and you can, once again, make this point that these companies are gouging and profit mongers. this is the perfect opportunity. that's what she did last time. she did it with kraft. so you've got a year-ago figure that had this charge, unusual

charge. >> or research and development. >> right. ten cents. it's a 1400% increase in profits in one year in a pharmaceutical company. i'm just giving it to you, senator warren. take it and run with it! because this is perfect for you, the way that you present things. >> that's all. >> okay. >> you didn't like that, andrew? come on. >> wow. >> ten cents. that's what they do. you know it. you saw it. that's what she did last time with all -- and they know, they know what they're doing, and they do it anyway. >> takes notes. >> starbucks reporting later today, as the company confirmed yesterday that it is scrapping its line of olive oil beverages. they're going to be discontinuing those in early november. that decision made before the company's new ceo brian niccol took over. with the strategy to try to

simplify the menu. those drinks were launched in february 2023, a lot of fanfare after howard schultz came back to the company. the trip to sicily is what inspired it all. but they were met, those drinks, with mixed reaction. >> i did -- i think i did in the end. it was okay, but i was out like -- the other thing was, if you care at all about calories -- >> it's supposed to be good for you. >> however, it's olive oil. exactly. >> you can just drink it. >> i'm telling you, i go back thousands of years, take my ghee. let's just go back one second. it is amazing. stock's up 50% in a year. david ricks is going to be onset with us. it's almost a $900 billion drug company which is by far and away more than anyone else because the weight loss drug. which i see advertised.

you can get it, i think, if you call a phone number now, you can get something to stick in your stomach, have you seen that? they advertise it on tv where you can get a glp-1. >> it's a knockoff? >> it's a knockoff. and the stock known as roaring kitty has gotten out, dissolved his entire stake in chewy. disclosed a 6.6% stake in the company back in july. the first known invest beyond video game retailer gamestop. ryan cohen, the founder of chewy is now the ceo of gamestop. and boeing's union setaid i met with the company for the first time. and they described it as productive as they discussed key issues. the governors of utah, missouri

and montana all urged boeing and the union to end that strike. saying the far impact to suppliers and boeing shares. 153.60 is the last take. year to date, down by over 40%. okay, we've got some news. by the way, we should credit -- >> credit reddit. >> you said reddit, i was going to talk about yesterday. the we're talking about the benefits of what's going to happen here. shares of reddit, they are on the move, soaring is the better word. 6% per share, beating a loss. 47% year over year, at 9/4.1 million. and reddit has profited from the content, the company says many of those are logged-out users

which generate less online revenue than online users. and openai ceo sam altman has a stake in about $2 billion of the shares. a stake is more than more than 1 billion bucks. >> all of that a.i. stuff, they scour reddit for the business and crowds. >> one of the reasons that sam has taken -- you know, didn't take a stake in openai was that he always said i'm fine. and one of the reasons he says i'm fine, is because he has businesses like this. >> when i looked at an a.i. thing, it said, yeah, dude -- it had something like from a reddit post ten years ago. that there's a move to oust, you know, to oust the -- ten years

ago. >> they were trying to oust you then, too? >> they were trying to oust me then, too. 30 years. keep trying. what doesn't kill you just makes you stronger. sort of. chipotle shares falling. earning of 27 -- this was long before trump, too. right? but bush -- you know, he was the worst thing in the world to the left back then. >> crazy. >> what were you saying about chipotle? >> chipotling, earnings, 27 cents a share. beat estimates, revenue missed expectation. and sales rose by 6.5% falling short of the 6.3% expected on the call. interim ceo scott boatwright said the return of the smoked -- i guess it's brisket -- i haven't had that. the option was off to a good start and chipotle honey chicken is ready to be rolled out in the

near future. boatwright will be on "closing bell" overtime at 4:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc. when we come back, alphabet shares on the rise this morning, following strong quarterly results. we're going to tell you what the ceo says on a.i. on the rngseain call, that's next. and later, governor phil murphy will be with us to talk about the election, policy and much more. "squawk box" will be right back. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one.

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♪ welcome back, everybody. shares of google parent alphabet are sharply higher. the company reporting earnings of $2.12 a share. that beat the expectations of $1.85. revenue of 3.8 billion beat expectations of 3.3 billion. the company attributed strong cloud results to a.i. offerings. in fact, here's sundar pichai, the ceo, here's what he had to say on the call. >> we're seeing stronger engagement and user satisfaction, people are asking longer and more complex questions and exploring a wider range of websites. what's practically exciting as it increases over time that people learn that google can answer more of their questions. >> joining us is brad ericsson,

rbc senior analyst for international services. brad, that stock is up by 5.7%. it was a pretty strong quarter, all the way around. >> it was, it was. yeah, you mentioned the cloud growth. the margins, i think, were especially better than people were expecting. search continues to check the box, not amazing, but checks the box good enough. but, yeah, 5% is a big move for a stock like this. >> and in some ways, i think, getting back to just the a.i. questions itself, maybe answering some questions or concerns there may have been about it falling behind. the likes of openai, microsoft and some of its other competitors it has, also with cloud, when it comes to aws. what do you take more broadly or more long term out of this quarter's results? >> yeah, that, you know, the growing narrative of this quarter, i think each quarter, they're doing a better job

articulating, you know, they have this leadership position. they're getting gemini, which is the main model which is upwards of seven businesses now that have over a billion users. so they're really working it into their distribution channel, with all of their major products. the clip you just played perfectly laid it out, this technology makes people engage more. as they engage more, they learn they can continue to engage more. so it's compounding the usage. and, philip said it on the call last night, we're refining opportunities and discovering them for the search. and for the cloud, just quickly, the important thing, gdp has been growing nicely to accelerate its 600 basis points which is better than people were thinking. a.i. and generative a.i. are the

two biggest platforms. >> you also cover amazon, when you look at cloud services i'm guessing you don't think this takes anything away from what amazon's able to deliver? >> no, not at all. i think this is going to have people feeling even better. the bar has risen for aws through the quarter. i think most investors are expecting a number kind of in the low 20% range for growth. but if you see a number like this out of google cloud last night, i think maybe the market gets their hopes up for maybe a little better than that on thursday. >> brad, when you look at amazon, it is one of the stocks that you cover, when you look at amazon, how do you kind of break it down? is it mostly a cloud play at this point? or do you look at it and say, okay, we have to really think about how consumers are feeling and how online shopping is going, too? >> yeah, i think for a long time, more or less, it was say largely a cloud play, obviously a huge retail business but

obviously that's not what attracted investors to the name. what's changed over the last year or two, the newer ceo, relative new ceo has launched out on driving operating income, profit margin, on the retail business. and so that is what, i think, has brought on a whole new group of investors and keeping a whole new group of investors in this name. now, what matters for thursday, you continue to have to show that margin expansion basis. the market is set up for a guide-down, we'll say for q4 both on revenue and margins. but funny enough, this issue with the satellites, right, project hyper, they're going to be firing up the rockets in q4 and q1, no one knows what's that's going to cost, 5 million or billion. we're looking for clarity on that. >> tonight, we've got meta

reporting. what should we be keeping an eye on? >> yeah, there, i think, the read-through last night was positive. search was modestly above expectations. i think the view on meta, certainly from an investor perspective coming in, is that their business is doing better than google on the margin. and really, that's coming from kind of newer products and more torque, really, from their a.i. products they've brought to markets in the last half. i think the market is looking for a few percentage points to the high end of q4 guidance, that's kind of initially what the stock will trade on. and obviously, it's going to come down to marc and his narrative about how they feel about metaverse, spending a.i. in general, probably going to sock about sunglasses, all of it. >> all of the mag seven you that cover, amazon, meta, which is your favorite? >> well, i think, recently, we

kind of elevated google to be our favorite of the three names. just because there's the most controversy. i thought another section of the call, the ceo called out the doj and basically said -- not directly, but he basically said, on this lawsuit, that they believe -- google believes there will be negative unintended by-products. to me, that's a really important statement. you don't say that unless you have significant evidence underneath that. google knows what the possible remedies for this are, i think they started doing the work. that's the most telling google has the most controversy. >> what do you mean by that, brad? you say they already started doing work on that. in what regard? >> well, a few weeks ago, right, the doj brought what we call their wish list of remedies. it's basically throw anything on the table you may want. the judge is unlikely to go with all of those things, right,

they're still working through that process over the next few months. but it's certainly fair to assume, google who obviously will be seen as public, so now they can go to work and run the a.d. testing and see what will happen in the event you make some of those changes. i thought it was just a very interesting comment. it was subtle on the call, but interesting. >> hey, brad, thanks a lot forfor joining us. >> thanks for having me. coming up on the other side, a new report on elon musk's startup looking to make more money, billions of money, eye-popping, coming up next. and uber is next, dara khosrowshahi joining us.

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welcome back to "squawk box." elon musk's xai is in talks with investors valued at $40 billion. "the wall street journal" saying xai opening to raise $74 billion. you may remember expectation $24 billion. built the largest data center in memphis, tennessee where it's training new versions of rock, that a.i. model, those who play with it, i'll tell you, it is moving fast. >> you've noticed -- >> you talk about somebody who has focus, i mean, this is where elon musk excels. just somehow, he -- >> you think? you saw the thing laying with the two things that -- >> yeah, i know, but i'm saying, i'm saying. >> he's not a great ceo. >> no, he's now doing it with

xai, it's pretty incredible. >> it's unbelievable. going down the list of things, he's like edison. he may be crazy, but closest we have to edison. coming up, caterpillar set to report, we'll bring you numbers and reactions on wall street. and next, s&p 500 winners & loses are coming up next. it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast!

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the day went on, it was around -- it was, you know, it was up, it was down, when it finally closed the dow was down again as we talked about earlier. that's what, six out of seven days? >> six out of seven days. and i think for the month, down a quarter percentage point. not a huge decline, first month down month out of six. >> it's october, isn't it? >> i guess if you can get out a quarter decline for the month. >> october is tough. >> right. meantime, shares of swiss bank ubs -- you can have a usb stick, but we're talking ubs, first climb of client migration. and continues to continue the buybacks in the fourth quarter, intends to buyback in 2025. german automaker volkswagen

reports a 42% drop in vehicle sales. falling 8.3% year over year. the company says the results over the first three quarters the year were impacted it says by higher restructuring efforts. volkswagen has warned of potential plant closures in germany and scrapped labor agreements. on monday, the company has expanded widespread layoffs and pay cuts. you can see that's been going on over there. shares of amd are lower, even though earnings of 92 cents matched expectations. revenue was $6.82 billion. that topped expectations. overall, revenue guidance for the current quarter was are in line with consensus. but you can see it's a pretty big drop, about 8%. we talked to paul meeks yesterday. this is a $270 billion company. it used to, you know, always be

kind of -- it's been a while, but it used to be in intel shadow. no in intel. it's a notable market cap, and paul meeks yesterday said their legacy cpu business is, you know, not what it used to be. and they're trying to get into a.i. i mean, it's tough to get to do a.i. chips, when you have a leader like nvidia. so, i don't know whether that explains. but that was what you mentioned earlier, gave credit to rich greenfield and paul meeks. >> yeah, there's been a bunch. >> he said amd, was not expecting to be impressed by what amd said and stock is down about 8%. let's talk about shares of caterpillar, that company just out with its earnings. it does look like the company missed in terms of earnings per share, $5.70 on adjusted basis. that compared to the $5.34. and revenue came in better than

expected $16.1 billion versus the 16.08 billion that the street was looking for. just operating margin, 19.5%, that compares to 20.5% for the firs third quarter from a year ago. the chairman and ceo saying he thinks the third quarter results reflect the benefit of the diversity of their inmarkets. but obviously, the manufacturing economy has slowed. and analysts have said there's been an ongoing inventory destocking process, both in agriculture and construction machinery. and caterpillar has had to grapple with that. the stock is off 6% year to date it's off 23%. again, beating expectations on the revenue line, missing on adjusted earnings per share order. and 5.25%.

>> check out the dow futures. >> now where are they. >> da, da, da! >> down 83. >> caterpillar is a dow component. >> thank you. >> well, i just -- >> that's what happened. yeah. >> triple digits. >> yeah, amazing. coming up, we're going to talk about former president trump's tariff proposals and the potential impact on the economy. that's next. and a reminder, get the best of "squawk box" on the daily podcast. follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app, anytime. anytime. >> right now? >> i think you can do that. we're coming right back. t there and get more customers in here. no sweat... for you anyway. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.

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we are less than a week away from the election day. in fact, we're five days, under five days and 19 hours. in case you're -- have you watched any tv recently at all?

>> i watched the world series. >> cnbc. >> you do? >> every ad. >> every ad. >> every ad is a political ad. >> that's the problem with all of the pac money. >> if there's any inventory anywhere for running an ad, someone is buying it up right now. it is crunch time. i haven't heard of half these people. i think we've got governor murphy coming on. >> we do. >> he's not until next year, he's lucky. right? some it's weird staggered thing. our next guests are going to weigh in ---i mean, i'm kind of happy it's going to be over, just from these ads, ias -- i'm almost like -- they go from one person to the opponent. they show the person in the next light. and very next ad, she looks like she's dragged away by police at a demonstration. we're going to weigh in on

the economic impact of the tariff plans, vice president harris and former president donald trump, let's clieat williams. a partner with international law firm aiken. and bob hormac who served as veteran of five presidential administrations serving many roles including under secretary of state, and deputy u.s. trade rep. it's good to see you. >> equally. >> you've been an international guy. china, we've had you onfor china so many times in the past. and for a lot of other reasons. and just, i think, in your dna, if there was never another tariff from any country anywhere around the world, you would probably be happy. is that fair to say? >> no, i think there are legitimate reasons for imposing tariffs. we have safe guard tariffs. we have tariffs for national

security. we have tariffs that been in countries that are doing things in violation of international trading rules. we have plenty of those tariffs. and all four utilizing tariffs versus premises -- >> in a perfect world, in a perfect world, if there were no other tariffs if everybody was playing fairly, you wouldn't want any. you're talking about tariffs in response to other countries that are misbehaving in terms of free trade? >> or for foreign adversary purposes. what i don't like across-the-board tariffs that are not focused on specific things that i talked about. that's what troubles me. >> klete, this is what we're hearing, that's really sort of the only political stance that democrats can take on. because they left on all of the

biden tariffs and actually increased some. so the way that you can sort of justify that and still trash the trump tariffs, the proposed tariffs is by saying, well, some of them are targeted. we like the good tariffs, we just don't like the bad tariffs. >> well, thank you for helping me with my argument here. look, the big point is that these plans are all still being developed. when they're rolled out after president trump wins the election, i expect you'll see tariffs that are going to achieve the exact same goals that bob was talking about, bipartisan goals. what is trump trying to do? he's trying to bring manufacturing back to the united states. he's trying to combat unfair trade practices which is exactly why the biden administration were adopting and increasing some of the trump tariffs. and third, he's trying to restore balance into the international order. when you look at the tariff proposal, you got to put it in

context that most of the rest of the world have higher tariffs than we do go through the list, japan, eu, india, china, some of these tariffs five times as high as the united states. and putting in place a larger tariff in the united states we hope we can enforce that conversation which it sounds like everyone wants to have which is how do we want to bring down tariffs globally. that's what i want to get to. >> do you find yourself many times saying he doesn't really mean it, and we're not really going to do, you know, across-the-board tariffs and it's a negotiating tool? and then i would ask bob the same question. you've got -- you know, your candidate in the past five or ten years, there's like -- there's like 20 things that she didn't name, or else, you definitely are running from -- you know, getting rid of private health insurance. or decriminalizing border

crossings or whatever it is. both sides, clete, oh, we don't really mean it? >> the mod icum i use is he's going to raise tariffs. and working out the details that's the way i expect it to play out. >> bob, this is what i take it, abolishing i.c.e., the filibuster, free health care for all illegals. mass amnesty for illegals. there's a lot -- which ones are real and which -- are you in a real position of saying she's not really going to do any of those things? >> are you talking to me or clete? >> yeah, bob. i don't think clete is going to defend that. >> i think we have to wait and see what they do. there's a lot of talk during

campaigns, and a lot of it, either doesn't materialize in the actual policies of the candidate when they get in. or they try it and they can't get it through the congress. so, a lot of what we say and hear, or what they say and we hear, is we need to reserve judgment until we actually see the proposals, until we actually see whether they can work with the congress to get them through. even if they do propose them. but if we're talking simply the tariffs, trump has made these points about 10% across the board or 20% or 60% for china. and the point i was making earlier is, those will be the ones that would trouble me. because i think that, a., they'd be inflationary, b., you'd get retaliation. c., they would disrupt a lot of companies who depend on imported products, supply chain products,

intermediate products. and the price of those would go up. and the price of their final goods would go up. so i'm really focusing at the moment on this. and i'd like to see what the final proposals are, clete's right. we should wait. but i'm simply saying some of the rhetoric now is quite disturbing. and i think you'll find that a number of companies, if they were really worried that these things were going to happen, would find also thattheir production and their consumer goods, sales, were going to be disrupted. and that's what troubles please. and we don't need more inflationary at this point, while the fed is cutting rates. and the fed would be having to have second thoughts if it saw more inflation because of higher tariffs. >> clete, i have seen op-ed pieces in everything what you would think is a friendly venue, like "the wall street journal" editorial board, saying that the

second trump administration, with what he's proposing, the economy night might not look an like the first. inflation could look much higher. and everybody is getting a tax break from everybody with tips, taxing social security or overtime. i saw one that called more like the oprah economy, instead of the reagan economy. >> right. we can all sit here and speculate what the economy is going to look like under various presidential candidates, but what i would encourage everyone to do is take a look at the track record. you have a lot of folks talking about inflation right now. there are those put on in the heat of the campaign claiming president trump's policies are all going to be inflationary, i'd say again, look at the track record. >> it could be different. could be different. you can't guarantee that's he's go -- there were other things

happening tailwinds in the first administration. if he were to do what he says, i can't imagine that inflation would be as well as the first administration. >> look at this economic plans, right? he's looking to lower taxes. he's looking to cut regulations. he's looking to unloosh eash en resources. he's going to do a plan on housing. you but all of that together and you put the tariffs in that context, i don't think you'll have the inflation back that people are talking about. that's the track record for president trump. i think if you look at biden by contrast and you had trillions and trillions of dollars of spending. that's what caused the inflation spike. there's a big difference in candidates. president trump is going to take a lot of actions, to lower costs in the economy, make us more competitive. on top of that, you'll have tariffs on for trade practices, when all of that comes together, i think you'll have -- >> the problem here, clete, is

many of the tariff proposals he's made are across the board and they're not designed to deal with unfair trade practices. in fact, he proposed the section 432 national security tariffs some of them against american allies. so, i'm all for the point you made earlier. let's wait and see what he does. but i'm looking at the rhetoric. and the rhetoric, if it materializes is what troubles me. because i think it will bring on a lot of not only inflationary problems but disruptive problems for american businesses and consumers. but i won't judge until i see. >> we may see it in the next administration. hormats, that's six for you, you've been in five administrations. is it going to be six? >> i don't think so. >> no? >> clete may. >> that begs the question, you

don't want to, or they're not asking, which is it? >> i don't think i'm going to get a knock on the door this time. >> exactly. >> but the last five, i'm very proud of what they've done, but we have different problems. in the administration, we have to wait and see what they do. we can anticipate and plan, but we don't know until we see in that. >> right. >> we'll decide what our reaction is then. >> robert hormats, thanks, clete thank you as well. see you later. when we come back, we'll take a look at the biggest moves on the dow 30 stocks. categories dragging the earnings down adjusted earnings per share below the street's expectation. we'll talk about that stock and visa, straight ahead. as we head to a break, we'll give you a programming note,

cnbc will be live on notall nig on election night. 7:00 p.m. eastern time. "squawk box" will be starting early on wednesday morning, 5:00 a.m. "squawk box" will be right back. opportunities in the market. k e*trade from morgan stanley

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we talk about lilly earlier and some of the headlines ahead of the result, earningsfocus on an exit rate, we'll talk about that. but a fear of a revenue miss. wells fargo had already said a third quarter miss is largely expected now. but i don't know if it was a miss this big. it is $1.18 a share.

as we told you earlier, the estimate was $1.47 and that -- ten cents last year when there was a big charge. revenue was supposed to go up to about $12 billion from $9 billion last year and it was $11.44 billion. so it was a revenue miss that we're talking about. eli lilly is also cutting the high end of its full year guidance and cutting full year earnings guidance. the stock now down 10% or $93. on a heck of a run, stock is 50% this year, not anymore, but we'll talk to david ricks about this in a few minutes. in the ramp up on the weight loss, that's, you know, you live by the sword, that's why the stock has gone from a couple hundred billion to $800 billion or whatever. but i think long-term, really bullish for weight loss, but maybe, don't know, do you see it

slowing at all. you want a pill. you want to microdose yourself even though you're rail thin. >> i think we're all going to be microdosing this stuff. >> i looked up another thing today because i'm making progress. i may look like a big white bag of garbage, but i am making progress on the weight front. i'm almost -- i looked up today. will it help with gerd. you can cure gerd from losing weight. pressure on your stomach -- >> cholesterol goes down, everything goes down. >> it is unbelievable. there is no panaceas? it is almost -- what do you think i should go to? should i go to -- i'll go under 200. should i go to 180? >> just take your -- >> i think i would look really saggy. >> still ahead, trump media stock surge up200% in the last month. alng tt ing to take a look a chleeshat could face the former president and his $6 billion stake in the company.

"squawk box" coming right back after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." former president trump's stake in djt worth over $6 billion. what started as a social media company became what seems to be now a meme stock and perhaps a proxy on trump's popularity and maybe even the presidency. we'll see. robert frank joins us now with more on the move and the former president's new wealth vehicle. robert, what do you think is going on here? >> donald trump heads into this election nearly twice as wealthy as he was in the last two elections. and the reason as you mentioned is trump media. the shares of djt more than tripling just over the past month. he owns about 57% of the

company, about 114 million shares. so that stake now worth $5.9 billion as of the end of trading yesterday. the account for nearly three-quarters now of his total net worth, about $8 billion. now, if elected, he would not only be the richest president ever, he would be the first to hold office while controlling a publicly traded company. the president and vice president are largely exempt from government conflict of interest rules. during his first term, he put the trump organization into a blind trust, you might remember that, a lawsuit involving his d.c. hotel and potential foreign interest was dismissed by the supreme court back in 2021 on the grounds that he had already left office. now, with djt, wealthy investors and governments now have a direct path to add to trump's wealth. and they can remain anonymous. trump saying in september he has no plans to sell the shares. the trump campaign saying in a statement, quote, unlike most politicians, president trump didn't get into politics for profit. he's fighting because he loves

the people of this country and he wants to make america great again. one of the ironies here is that as of yesterday, truth social, parent company of trump media, is worth the same or more as x, formerly known as twitter. both around $10 billion. that's interesting given the user base and the profile. >> the question i have, and we talked about whether this is a proxy for his popularity in the presidential race, what it actually is, if you were trying to do this as a -- make the business case. >> there is no business case. >> that was my question. is there a case to be made if he becomes the president, the companies are going to want to advertise on said platform in a way that they didn't before, either because they think that it is -- they want to create favor with the president or because they think it is a great way to market their wares to individuals in a way they didn't before. >> it is possible. we haven't heard a path forward from the company on why they could even ever approach this valuation.

he's posting on x, so, you know, he does have that platform. the hope that sort of truth social would be the one capture point for all of his communications. that hasn't panned out. >> it moves around so much that what you just wrote and the piece you just did could be a different piece tomorrow. >> it could be. >> three weeks ago, three weeks ago, four weeks ago, we were talking about it at 16, and it went to the lockup period had expired and the -- everybody thought, well, trump's going to have to sell, take what he can get out of it because it is down from 50 to 16, and he said, that's what you noted, he said, no, i'm not going to sell it, you turn around, it was 16 and now 48, i think it is down today 2.75, only worth $2 billion back then. >> we don't know what it is going to be worth. it is very volatile. it is paper wealth. it could disappear. but right now -- it is far more

successful as a wealth creation machine right now than anything else he has ever done. >> back then, it wasn't. but it coincided with bitcoin, the financials and other trump trades too. >> i don't know. you look under the hood, there is a lot of options, so, it is not so much long-term investors that are holding. >> the betting markets. >> and it moved with that. >> i won't mention any names, but they could be having some influence on all these markets. >> that's true. they could. with not a lot of money relative to -- >> it is a couple billion dollars that has been bet. it is not a lot to some people. >> there was one $30 million bet that if you're a guy worth $200 billion -- >> that's 1% of what we -- >> what you have seen of the billionaires give to campaigns, $50 million, upsides of that,

from some of the people -- >> we have seen billionaires altogether give about $2 billion in this race. so, relative to what they have given, it is not a lot. right now the market cap is over $10 billion for djt. the company that lost $16 million in the most recent quarter. it is not a -- people say, well, it goes to zero if he loses. what happens if he wins? what is the continued bull case if it is a proxy and it is popularity, he won, now what? >> it is trading like a meme stock. >> yeah. >> robert, thank you, sir. >> thank you, guys. >> appreciate it very, very much. it is just after 7:00 a.m. 7:04 exactly here on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and becky quick. got a big number of bunch of big stories to talk about this morning. starbucks reports later today. company confirming yesterday it is scrapping its leto line of olive oil line beverages. that decision made, though, before the new ceo brian niccol

took over. the company saying it moves with his strategy to simiplify the menu. boeing's machinist union saying it met with the company yesterday for the first time since members voted down the latest contract offer. the union describing the face to face meeting as productive and said they addressed key arguing issues. it comes after the republican governors of utah, missouri and montana urged boeing and the union to end the strike. and charles schwab planning to roll out broader overnight trading to include all u.s. stocks and hundreds of etfs. it is driving some brokes and exchanges to expand their offerings. let's look at the futures this morning. right now dow futures are down. they turned lower after we got the report from caterpillar. caterpillar reported earnings that were a little below expectations even though their revenue number beat expectations. as a result, dow down by 69

points. by the way, the dow is off, if you're looking for the month of october, down by a quarter percentage point. this would be breaking a five-month winning streak if they actually don't pick things up in the next two days. the end of the quarter. we'll see what happens. right now, looks like it is off by 70 points. s&p futures are up by 6 and the nasdaq which closed at a new high indicated up 41 points this morning. over to dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket movers. >> let's start off with that dow component caterpillar, dropping nearly 6%. that's the big drag so far here. now down 4%. 15 points to the downside there for caterpillar shares. mixed results as you point out, revenue from construction services segment falling by 9% year over year. that was a big drag on the company. the stock still up 25 or so percent year to date. we got shares of alphabet, the parent company of google, big winner today, up more than 6.5% right now, after beating across the board for earnings, profits,

its cloud computing business staggering 35% gain in revenues. alphabet citing the a.i. offerings as the big driver there. search engine revenue grew by 12.3% year over year. that's the reason why alphabet is up over 6%. we'll round things out with advanced microdevices, amd down despite exceeding expectations on revenue and meeting profit expectations for the quarter. the guidance was disappointing for some investors. today's losses by the way pretty much erasing a lot of bulk of the year to date gains so far. for more on that story, be sure to tune into cnbc's exclusive interview with amd ceo lisa su 9:00 a.m. on "squawk on the street" for more color and context on what the a.i. trade looks like for amd. back over to you. >> dom, we'll be watching and we'll see you in a little bit. thank you. coming up, eli lilly reporting results a short time

ago. the ceo david ricks is going to join us after the break to discuss the quarter and more. and then later, corning ceo wendell weeks joins us to discuss the company's recently announced deal with at&t to provide next gen fiber and connectivity solutions. "squawk box" will be right back.

it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people. eli lilly reporting results in the last hour. cnbc's health and pharma reporter angelica peebles joins us now with more. big sell-off in the stock. although there was some indication that some people were

expecting a revenue short fall. so, i have two questions for you. is it all glp 1 related and, if so, is it just lilly's version of glp 1 or is there some type of, i don't know, softness? did we get ahead of ourselves on the whole weight loss -- in this country, everybody talks about it, everybody is taking it, and do we get ahead of ourselves? is there any slowdown in demand for it? >> certainly the story for lilly is all about the glp 1s, about mounjaro and zepbound. that's the thing investors are paying the closest attention to. that's the revenue driver going forward. that's why we're focusing so much on it. that is the focus of today's report because the company just a quarter ago raising its full year sales estimate by $3 billion, saying that it had better visibility into supply and now they're taking that back a little bit, trimming the top end of the guidance, in both

zepbound and mounjaro coming short of estimates in the third quarter. and so we're going to have to hear what lilly has to say about that. but, remember, last quarter, novo nordisk also reporting a little bit of weakness there in its business. i don't know if we can say at this point that we're past peak obesity and past the peak of the drugs by any stretch, but it is interesting to see the dynamics play out as we talk about supply, demand and also what the prices of these drugs look like as we get into more insurance and medicaid markets and so i think there is a lot to see about where we go from here. >> he's coming up right now, because you did mention and i don't -- in the past i have seen other companies say something about, like, wholesale inventory destocking. i don't know what that means. is it commentary on demand or is it just a technical thing? should we ask him or do you -- >> we need to ask because it is interesting to say that wholesalers, you know, they're not buying as much because they don't need to, but we know that there is demand out there.

like you said, people are clamoring for these drugs, there is this whole debate of whether or not it is available or not, whether it is in shortage, to hear that at this point that the wholesalers feel like they have enough, they're not buying as much as they were before, i think we need to ask about that. it is an interesting die namic. >> joining us now to break down the report, eli lilly ceo david ricks. we have seen this movie before, things do get very excitable about great products. your stock is up 50%. almost got to a trillion dollars which would have been the first drug company i think ever to get there. there has been great things happening. just is this three steps forward, one step back? how do you view it? >> well, we had a really strong quarter, so i know there is a difference in what the street expected. but to be honest, we're pretty pleased with how things turned out. up 42% year over year on the right compare. i think that's a pretty small

group of companies growing at that rate. and sequentially if you look at in market prescription growth, it is accelerating in the u.s. so, while reported sales are on track with what we want, we're taking a little bit open of top of our guide. during the quarter, we changed an assumption, changed the assumption that we should start promoting and launching sooner in the u.s. and in other markets. and we basically pushed that -- some of that out into q4 because of customer service levels. we want to make sure people when they get a prescription can fill it, we understand that's a frustration for our customers. we relaxed that, and there is lighter demand in the year and now projected, but overall, i think we're pretty healthy shape. and underlying demand is extremely strong. >> i'm trying to understand, you concede demand is a little bit lighter and then in terms of lowering -- you said the street was expecting this, but the street was basing their

expectations on your guidance. and your guidance on the top end for revenue did come down a little, is that 100% of that, because of the customer service concerns and pushing it into the fourth quarter or anything else to account for the high end of the yearly guidance coming down? >> yeah, it is really that. we moved out plans to advertise and promote zepbound which we're not really doing right now. we're just starting that now in q4. so here in november, mid-november on, we'll begin that in the u.s. and then outside the u.s. we held back on launches, so, those activities, which drive revenue, we slowed down a bit because we want to make sure our inventory levels at lilly and in the channel rise. now, i think angelica was speaking earlier there about channel dynamics, which we cite in our press release, and we did have a lot of inventory going into the quarter. we had a lot less going out in the channel. so, i think this is not a function of supply, though.

it is a function of the -- these wholesalers and retailers having capacity, and wanting to stock every dose, which they often don't. so, yeah, we're just balancing all these parts and, you know, the -- there is an excess supply but we haven't been stimulating demand the way we originally planned. we're pausing that a bit. we did pause that, we're restarting here. so, look, the growth story is fantastic. underlying this. and zepbound and mounjaro are growing pretty dramatically. we plan for that to continue. >> david, it is nice to talk to you again. it is interesting because last quarter you were saying that you really didn't even need to promote zepbound. it was basically promoting itself because there was so much demand and now it sounds like you're saying you need to go out there and do more promotion. is that right? you see demand softening at this point? >> i think if we had juiced promotion in the quarter, we might have risked on some dosage

forms people having a bad experience, going to the pharmacy counter and not having it available, et cetera. there is a -- this supply chain is tightly managed. we're still in the growth, we're investing heavily as you know in that, we're still in the growth phase of that expanding capacity pretty dramatically, on track to hit our goal of at least 50% year over year growth in the second half of this year versus second half of last year. but, when people go and they can't get their medicine, they're frustrated. they tell us that. we didn't want to send more people to do that necessarily. that said, underlying sequential prescription growth is up 25% q3 over q2. so a lot more people went to get prescription, even though we did not promote. we're going to start that. we do expect even greater expansion in our manufacturing capacity exiting the year and into next year. >> and how much of the supply situation has to do with the fact that you want to make sure that it is available so that it

is off the fda's shortage list? that's been a big issue with you and the compounders. how much of that dynamic is at play here? >> it is a factor. our key indicator is fill rate at the pharmacy counter for consumers. so when that is slipping down, people are unsuccessful filling a prescription the first time or second time, that's what we pay attention to. a byproduct is what the fda decides to do. we don't control that. we give the relevant information. how much stock is at lilly. we have available supply on all doses of mounjaro and zepbound and they make a determination, whether in shortage or not. we agree it is not in shortage because we have stock. >> the other issue, david, are these copycats. you're going after them, suing some of them. but is that like a whac-a-mole game to come up with the biggest copycat issues on this? what risks are there for consumers if they're going that route instead of going for a doctor? >> yeah, i mean, the primary

concern there is one of safety. a lot of these outfits are dispensing drugs without doctor supervision. not an in person visit. they're not fda regulated. they claim they're regulated by state boards of pharmacies. i don't think they're getting inspected. they're not approved drugs, really. so we're -- we created a world here where there are these knockoffs that people can access. and our point of view is that needs to get put back in the box. we have the fda for a reason, which is we want to have consumers confident when they go to the -- get a prescription that it is the dose and the medicine that they expect it to have. and it is safe and effective. none of these other guys can say that. >> how much of a frustration is that. and what do you think the government should be doing? >> well, i think -- it is not really a business matter for us as we talked about. we're sort of selling what we make and it is a tight supply chain for us. i just worry long-term if we're sort of avoiding the real issue

here which is coverage of the medications on insurance. i think that's really what is happening is people want to buy a lower price product, even though it is lower quality, it is not a real medicine, it is not an approved medicine, that's what compounding is. what we need to do is bring those people into the insured system, and, you know, if we have other diseases like diabetes or hypertension, we expect our medicine to be covered by insurance, why is this different, you know, that needs to change. i think that's the primary thing i'm worried about. >> and one thing you did though for people who can't get these drugs covered by insurance is to make the vials available for cash paying customers through lilly direct. so how is that going so far? and do you think you'll start adding vials into the supply of people who are getting the drugs through insurance? >> yeah, that's going well. as you point out, we launched vials in august on the two starting dose and the 5 milligram, highly effective dose, to help people in part d, the senior care program, where

the government is basically prohibited use of all weight loss drugs for that indication. and it is going well. i think we're seeing week on week growth in that channel. and thousands of people being able to get legitimate product through that channel. that's the right way to address cost and coverage and we're committed to trying to bring down pricing for consumers in that way. there will be more ahead of that for us because there is a lag in this insurance coverage issue. even though that's the ultimate answer. obesity is a disease. people with it deserve coverage with their medication. >> i want to talk about alzheimer's for one second here. because yesterday you presented some data showing if you tweak the dosing of kisenla, you can reduce the risk of brain swelling. how do you expect that to affect the sales and how is that launch going so far? >> it is our new medicine for the treatment of the beginning stages of alzheimer's when you

have symptoms. we're excited by that launch. we just got going. we have a month and a bit of sales, so the sales aren't what we're talking about. it is more -- are hospitals adopting it, are we getting on formulary, all those indicators look really strong. the one thing in this class that has been much discussed is the risk benefit and whether the safety can be managed. and we believe it can and the risk benefits is appropriate with the existing dosing regimen, but we ran an experiment to improve upon that and it is exciting news because you get the same degree of amyloid plaque lowering but with 40%, 50% less of the side effects. so we're rapidly going to submit that to the fda, change the dosing regimen and people can have more benefit with less risk. i think that's a good development for the drug. >> all right, we're going to go, i think, david. will we forever think of eli lilly as a weight loss company? is that -- is that what you are

now? let's add something. what else? >> well, we're -- we're eventually investing and growing in all kinds of other areas. there are serious unmet needs in all kinds of diseases and lilly is not just a diabetes company. one of our fastest growing products is our breast cancer product which is for early breast cancer. and metastatic breast cancer. it is now the leading product in that category. and doing extremely well. we got a growing immunology business for psoriasis, atopic dermatitis and we talked about neuroscience. i'm really optimistic for the future of treating brain diseases. this is the company that invented prozac. we used to be known for that drug, joe. >> i know. prozac nation. >> yeah. and that's still one of the biggest unmet needs on the planet for mankind is brain diseases. but we're beginning to crack the code, the biology is revealing itself, we don't even have a.i.

working fully in our industry's innovation cycle yet. when we do, it will milwaukee a b make a big difference. we're investing in all the areas at a high rate. we are more than an obesity company. though obesity is an exciting story. >> that is the last -- many people think that's the last frontier. it is all chemically mediated. we know that. almost anything that you do or think or feel, it is hard to believe, but there is some physiology or neurochemistry to it. david, thank you. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. so young, probably be there for all this. >> i hope so. i hope so. >> yeah. me too. okay. thanks. see you later. coming up next, a preview of today's first read on third quarter gdp, the number could move markets when it hits at 8:30 eastern time. we head to a break, check out shares of chipotle, the fast food chain reported mixed quarterly results as earnings beat expectations. revenue, though, fell short.

you're looking at that stock off about 6% this morning. we're coming right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. according to bank rate, what are e relet affordable states for full time center-based infant care? the answer when "squawk box" returns. aflac! like how aflac pays people money for the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. aflac! health insurance does leave a gap. but aflac gives people money to help close that gap. aflac! oh! coach prime got one on the line too baby! uh huh! see that's how you hold up a trophy. trust me. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. i hope you're hungry. i'm glad i brought my own dinner. uh huh. i haven't achieved all my ambitions.

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>> announcer: trivia question, according to bank rate, what are the three least affordable states for full-time center-based infant care? the answer, new mexico, hawaii and new york. average prices for one child represents between 19.6% and 20.5% of median family income in each state. all right, welcome back, everybody. three big numbers on the way in the next three days and a final economic report card for the biden/harris administration before the election. our senior economics reporter steve liesman has a preview of that. good morning, steve. >> yeah, the candidates are going to watch the numbers for any opportunity positive or negative they might provide to score points on the economy. but i think wall street and the bond market, they're going to be watching even more closely for

what it means for basis points on bond yields, which have been driving markets. adp at 113, that's a reduction, perhaps reflecting some of the strikes and hurricane issues out there. gdp strong, 3.1%. pce 2.1%. i don't know. i might call that victory for 2% target. but the core a little bill elevated at 2.6. there is the jobs number. we're going to talk about this the next couple of days. coming in at 100,000, strikes and hurricanes maybe playing a role there. especially the potential for it to be affected by the way by those hurricanes. and moving on here, taking a look at the 3.1% forecast will represent a second straight number, well above potential there right in a row. pretty strong repudiation of the growth forecast, we have this anemic growth forecast for the second and third quarters that we saw at the beginning of this year. that didn't happen. strong consumer spending, that's behind us now, this number here. but business equipment also doing pretty well.

big aircraft spending as well helping while housing is seen as a drag and quick technical note, the consensus may be lower in reality on the street because it may not include yesterday's stronger trade number which, of course, substraktracts from gdp. the candidates, they're going to make hay on this number. the bond market is going to make profits and losses and will take weakness in the economy to reverse upward reversal in yields more than 50 basis points since the fed meeting. just before the gdp number, adp, heads up on the jobs report and look at how wages may or may not be boosting inflation. a lot of talk about yields. and what is driving them. torsten flock, this may be reflecting the fiscal outlook. then i pick up "the journal" and i thought they repeated a story. there is a $50 billion investment plan from kkr about energy and data centers, a $40

billion investment from musk. i thought they were the same thing with different numbers, but that's $90 billion. then i wread this wonderful piee john sylvia, he's now working for himself, he says, interest rates never end up anyplace. they just keep moving around to reflect the difference between the supply of savings and the demand for investment and we are living in a moment here of extreme demand, yes from the fiscal side, but also from the private sector which can't seem to raise enough money to build enough a.i. stuff all over the country. >> that's a really interesting back and forth pull. i thought it was interesting you said bond yields are going to rise on this and the only thing that would push them down would be a reflect of weakness in the economy. i thought you were saying that's why we have seen elevated yields, but it is not. it is a combination. >> combination of growth, expectation for -- you had firmer inflation, and one thing john points out in this column,

i showed you the number at 3% growth. potential stock to be 1.8. well, depending upon the breakdown of that data, right, if a lot of that extra data is productivity, that's not necessarily inflationary. if some of that data is building infrastructure or building new plant and equipment that will add to potential growth, that's not inflationary. but if you're adding growth above potential without adding resources, that's inflationary. so, yeah you might come along with firmer inflation and also if you have a 4.1% unemployment rate and that unemployment rate is below a kind of steady state of -- that could also add to -- which, by the way, at -- what time is it? 8:15 this morning. the best -- one of best parts of the adp report is the wage data. they have -- >> real data. >> their wage data comes from 10

million actual paychecks, which is orders of magnitude more than the government data on wages. so, when they come through and say what is happening with wages, that's where we want to look really good indication of strength. >> that's interesting. if there is a difference between what we hear from adp and the government, do you say forget the government, go with the adp number? >> all the private sector pieces of data out there compared to the government, this -- their wage data may be the most important and it has been different. >> steve, thank you. we'll see you a little later. when we do, maybe we can talk about what the fed thinks about the higher yields, how that plays into their calculus too. >> excellent question. >> neleh will be here. do not run out there and -- >> talk to her ahead of time? >> glom all over here. just leave her alone. >> he wants to do that himself. >> up next, stocks on the move ahead of the opening bell. and corning ceo wendell weeks will join us. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk

box." two social media stocks thouthough i showing better results. you don't want to miss an exclusive interview, evan spiegel on money movers today. shares of reddit are soaring, earnings of 16 cents per share beat estimates for a 7 cent loss. revenue beat estimates in daily active users growing 47% year over year, $97.2 million now. the company's guidance coming in above expectations. look at shares of shake shack, also surging. this after quarterly results, earnings of 25 cents a share, 5 cents better than estimates, revenue up $316.9 million. beating expectations. same store sales grew 4.4%. that's well ahead of the 3.6% that the street had expected. becky? up next, corning ceo wendell

weeks, we'll talk to him about what they are seeing in terms of growth in a.i. also, later we're going to talk to the s.a.l.t. tax and much more with new jersey governor phil murphy. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back, everybody. corning and at&t announcing a multiyear agreement to expand fiber and cable networks to more americans. it is more than $1 billion deal and it comes as corning reported better than expected earnings and positive guidance for the quarter. joining us right now is wendell weeks, he's corning's ceo and, wendell, thanks for coming in on set. >> always a pleasure. >> let's talk about this. maybe we start with the earnings first because in the earnings it lays out the huge growth you're seeing in large part because of a.i. spending and what has been happening. and when you were here in july, you talked about how the fiber that orcorning makes is importa for what you're doing in terms of transmitting so much data. you have laid out some really aggressive goals. i think you said enterprise growth you wanted to see, growth of at least 25% through 2027 but you've been knocking that out of the park. this week you reported growth in

that business of more than 55%. what is happening, what is the demand picture that you're seeing? >> well, what is driving our demand is to do gen a.i., you need to expect the gpus, each one, to each other in these large gpu clusters. and you connect them with fiber. and it takes around ten times more fiber in a gen a.i.-enabled data center than it would in a traditional data center. so as the world's technology and market leader in this technology, it gives us great opportunity not only to grow, but to innovate. and that's what we're doing. what is driving our outperformance is the really strong adoption of our new gen a.i. products. >> and you rolled these out in june, you were here in july talking about some of these things. there is some big money that is being spent on these things. most of it coming from major companies that are doing this along the way. how are you keeping up with demand right now? >> well, we were able to, over

the previous years, to build both the technology capability and the capacity. we saw the potential for these products, so we already have the assets in place. and that's what's leading to the really strong incremental performance. since we already have the capacity, and technical capabilities in place, and the cost was already in our financials, when the revenue shows up, we developed very, very strong positive incrementals. that's you see eps growing twice as fast as sales. >> that's a similar story to what we heard with nvidia. jensen huang was building that for over a decade or longer. and then when the demand was there, he was able to keep up with it. you've been doing this job at corning for over 20 years. this year has been phenomenal, over the last year the stock is up 83%. this year to date, up 60%. what would you compare this to and what you've seen over your more than two decades at this company? or what you see in business

overall? >> well, if you can get positioned behind the right secular trends, you can have super powerful growth cycles. and what we're seeing right now is a convergence of both cyclical and secular trends is what is driving our growth. gen a.i. is a secular trend, but not the only one we're seeing. and so if you patiently invest, build the right innovations, do the right thing, get the right products, you hit the trend right, you can have a very, very good set of years, and that's what we're aiming at. we're only three-quarters in to a three-year growth plan and i'm delighted with the stock. >> where is all the stuff manufactured? >> in the -- it depends on the piece, but the bulk of it is manufactured in the united states. the two largest and lowest cost -- >> we're going to have big questions about tariffs coming up, maybe. >> the two largest and lowest costs, fiber factories in the

world, are in north carolina, and we own them both. >> wow. >> and can i say, one other question, which is had you look at a pie chart of what you think the business looks like, three, five years out, given the a.i. piece of it, how much of it is still laying sort of legacy or old school fiber in the ground, right, or manufacturing fiber for that purpose, versus the connectivity piece in the a.i. world. >> great question. we're already seeing this change in mix. used to be about a quarter of our business was for data centers in our optical segment this last quarter it grew to 40% and we're seeing it just continue to accelerate. the next milestone you'll see is connecting the data centers to each other. and we just recently had this announcement with lumen technologies, which is all about that. since these gpu clusters are power hungry, they may need to

separate them between data centers, creating a new market, to connect the gen a.i. enabled data centers to each other and that is taking yet another new innovation for us, and we expect that to start coming into our revenues next year. >> that sounds like a lot of fiber that would be required to connect one data center to the next. steve liesman was just here talking about $90 billion in energy and data centers, investments being announced today by kkr and elon musk. that sounds like miles of fiber that you're talking about too. >> yes. and the good news is we make a lot of fiber. so, we're going to be able to step up in this market and continue our leadership position. and that adds another spring to our springboard plan, and that will start next year, and we expect that to continue to gather momentum. >> what is the deal you announced this week with at&t? a billion dollars over how much time to do what? >> at&t is a partner of ours for

decades, both in technology and markets and they're a leader in connecting you and you directly to fiber. and so what this is about is to take our new fiber, the home offerings, and connect more and more people into super high bandwidth internet. >> how concern ready you, long-term, about the disruption of that business by either satellites, so, thinking of what spacex is doing or amazon is doing with kuiper, in terms of high speed to the home, or fixed line wireless to the home? >> well, i'm a big fan of satellite and i know a lot about amazon. i'm on their board. so, that has an important piece of the overall communications puzzle, but it is just physics. you can't compete with fiber. in a single fiber pair, you can

connect every human to every other human if you get them all in the same place. to have a simultaneous voice conversation, in just one fiber pair. so satellite has far less capacity. so, it is really important part of the mix. it makes it easier to connect people that are far apart from each other in underserved areas. but physics wins. >> wendell, you say that this is something you guys were prepared for because you were investing for years and years before demand was there. what is the next great thing that you're investing for and preparing for down the road? >> well, next year we hope to introduce a new solar map, new solar market access platform to have another leg of growth. as we seek to help the u.s. on shore domestic production of solar to help make sure that our security stands in place and we have the ability to support renewable energy here. >> is it a cost factor that keeps that from happening right

now and how do you bring down the cost of the -- >> it has historically, but what we have been able to do is working in conjunction with government funding. what we're able to do is bring up a low cost factory of -- right here in the u.s. we have a of our new innovations coming in place for automotive. it's going to be another piece. of growth. as well as the products you know us for, your phones are going to change. and your notebooks are going to change. >> would tariffs on companies that are producing things outside of the united states help you in this quest? >> well, by and large, it depends which products. and certain of our products, yes. in others, what's really important is what happens to our customers, right? >> right. >> so, we want to see something like an apple can continue to sell a lot of phones around the world. >> sure that makes sense. wendell, thank you so much for

coming in. and again, taking a look at the one-year for that chart, actually at 86%. we appreciate your time today. >> thank you. coming up, the private payroll data from adp. the numbers and the market reaction straight ahead. but first, new jersey governor phil murphy joins to us talk taxes and much more and a reminder, cnbc will be alive all night on election day. have you talked to lionel richie yet, sorkin? >> i have, i need to have that license, don't i? >> yeah, you do. actually we'll have fun. we'll have the reaction from the biggest names in business. it all srttas at 7:00 p.m. eastern. and atthen the morning afte a special four hours live of "squawk box" eastern, stay tuned.

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about the election and taxes. and then a number of data points out, adp privatpaole yrls going to hit at 8:00 eastern time. and the numbers, "squawk" coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." our next guest is going to be weighing in on the 2024 election and key issues including jobs, taxes and more. i want to bring in governor phil murphy. governor, nice to see you, we are less than a week out. i'm curious, you talked to folks at least inside the harris campaign, i don't know whatever campaigns you might be talking to. how do you see the race as it stands right now? what polls you believe, what you think about the betting market, where do you think we really are? >> good to be back. secondly, on a knife's edge, there's no other way to put it. you can pick your poll, but this is going to come down to seven or eight states. and it feels 50/50 to me. it's a stark comparison for what each of these candidates stands for.

i'm a huge kamala harris fan and supporter. but that doesn't mean this isn't close and we're going to have to see this play through election day, perhaps beyond. >> i'm curious why you think it's 50/50. we talk oftentimes about the polls which, there's a rate of error, but they do look they're in former president trump's favor at the moment. then you look at the betting market and even then so. >> yeah. i'm not a fan of the betting market because i assume there are folks in there who somehow can express themselves that is maybe perhaps different than what the polls suggest. listen, whether we like it or not, this thing is a jump ball. and my -- my plea with folks who want to see the america that we all know and love is don't focus on why this is so close. or how frustrated you are. because it's so close. get out there and vote. we'vd record early

in-person, record vote by mail returns, right now in new jersey. let's see that printed across america. folks got to get out there, make their voice heard. and vote for the future of america, that they -- that they -- that we all believe in. >> governor, as a supporter that you are for vice president kamala harris, my question to you is, i think there's -- there's a question mark out there in the public right now is how much do you think the democrats are voting for her, or they're voting against trump? and maybe the question also relates to does it matter? >> yeah. i think it does matter. and i think it's both. i think you've got a lot of folks out there who, including moderate republicans, who look at this very stark authoritarian blueprint that donald trump is portraying and say, you know

what, that's not me. i don't want to be a part of that. but at the same time, i think you see an uplifting, this is what -- this is what america has always been story in the harris/walz campaign that people are attracted to. and does it matter? i guess, every vote is every vote, right? so winning is the name of the game here. but i think it's a mix of both. >> so, governor, just if we went on a checklist, you like all the things that -- you like kamala harris, not just against. so what are -- let me ask you, do you believe we should abolish the filibuster? and you can answer after i do this. how about getting rid of private insurance? how about taxes unrealized gains? how about nationalizing energy? how about mandatory gun buybacks like australia? how about decriminalizing illegal crossings? ending cash bail?

child gender reassignment surgery being paid for in prison? i mean, what are your -- raising the corporate tax rate. what are your favorite proposals from kamala harris that make you like her so much? >> joe, for a jersey guy -- for a jersey guy, you sound like you're on the trump campaign for crying out loud. >> i'll tell you what, some of those do you like, which of those do you like? which of of those are you in favor -- are you in favor of epg ending the filibuster, we'll go one by one, are you? >> i'm not sure about the filibuster, quite honestly. so you're not going -- >> what's that? >> i said fair tax policy is sensible. >> what does that mean fair? >> fair means you pay what you should pay. >> well, you know i live in your state, governor. you think if i pay 55% total, is

that fair for me? or do i need to pay 80%? what would be fair for you, because i live in your state. >> joe, i said that up front, believe me, i know you do, but you sound like, you're on the trump campaign. >> well, is that fair? >> i don't know what the right number is but -- >> go ahead, andrew. >> well, no, i was going to say what i think is potentially fair, there are a number of issues that were embedded in those questions of the governor just now. >> he didn't answer a single one what he's in favor of. >> hey, joe, hold on. joe, joe, joe -- hold on a second. >> this is on the record -- >> governor, many years ago -- >> joe, hold on a second, we passed a millionaires tax five years ago. everybody, joe, including you, said it would drive people out of new jersey. we have more millionaires today than ever in our history.

so tax fairness isn't necessarily a bad thing. >> i mean, you have a very progressive tax system. do you think we have a progressive tax system in the united states? it's not progressive enough? or are you talking about billionaires? i'm not sure -- you know how much the 1% does pay the lion's share of taxes, federal taxes. so what does fair mean? >> i'm open minded, how's that? >> i'm sorry? >> i'm open-minded. i obviously voted with my feet. we have a millionaires tax in jersey. it's a limit, but we give you an enormous amount back for what you pay per family. >> but she has not made that argument. >> well, i'm not wild about that. >> go ahead, governor. >> no, i'm saying, i'm not wild about -- on unrealized gains. >> what are you wild about? what are you wild about? not trump? >> here's what i'm wild about, i'm wild about a democracy that

works. i'm wild about the rich history of our country continuing for the future. i'm wild about opponents having a voice, and having a seat at the table. as opposed to being thrown in jail or hunted down by military. that's what i'm wild about. >> but, we might throw trump in jail. the justice department was not weaponized under trump. it's been weaponized under the current administration, right? >> i mean, joe, come on, you got to be kidding me. >> okay. i don't know -- >> you got to be kidding me. >> i haven't seen trump throw anyone in jail, but i have seen a lauot of law fair against tru. >> there's no viewer watching this discussion that thinks harris is the authoritarian threat versus trump.

there's no one who is reasonable who comes down in that conclusion. how could you? >> all right. you just look around, governor. i mean, you want me to go over the five cases that we're talking about, alvin bragg -- you want me -- those are all misdemeanors trumped up to felonies after the statute of limitations. you don't think that's lawfair? >> alvin bragg doesn't work for kamala harris. you and i both know that. >> if either candidate is in danger of using the justice department to punish his enemies, what we've seen recently is not from trump doing it. it's not -- i mean -- is there some reason you think that's going to happen with him, it's his rhetoric? >> joe, i'm having a hard time believing we're having this conversation. are you kidding me? did you see what happened on sunday in madison square garden? have you followed what he said what he's going to do against his enemies?

>> did you see what joe biden said last night that all the trump supporters are garbage. that wasn't a joke. that was the sitting president of the united states. and that wasn't some comedian that no one knew what will he was going to say. that was biden himself. did you see that? >> i saw it. and he said specifically it was about the people who were in madison square garden. you and i both know that's what he said. >> okay. >> governor, i want to thank you. i do want to say one thing to contextualize it. there's one important point to be made. president trump, when he was the president of the united states -- >> right. >> -- did seek to prosecute comey and hillary clinton and his own department of justice refused to do it. >> okay. >> he asked them to do it. >> and there's an example of-- >> to be 100% clear of the context of this. i say that -- i hope i can say that apolitically, if that's even possible.

>> come on, andrew, you don't need to say it apolitically, say it politically. it's every day. >> all right. all right. let's talk about the markets and a weekend note from our next guest who said he couldn't recall another nine-day period with more important economical importance. joining suss barry knapp, he's regional partner at research and ironsides macro economics. barry, let's talk about that, what do you mean you haven't seen a nine-day period with more economic importance. what do we have ahead of us? >> you had a discussion with steve liesman a bit earlier about some of the economic data. i suppose i would toss in the employment cost index on thursday as well. in addition to, this is belly week, so i joke about that but this is when the treasury issues all of the securities in the belly, so we struggle to take down two-year notes and five-year notes on monday.

and then we received the financing requirements for the next two quarters on monday afternoon. at 8:30, we're going to get the treasury's mix of bills versus coupons and bonds. we all know they've been issuing more bills to try and keep the long end from getting out of control as a consequence of all of this supply. but it's very likely they're going to need to increase that issuance next year in the first quarter. so, we have, you know, a lot of treasury supply. we have information about how they're going to be supplying those treasuries. the economic data which i really focus on the labor market data. we've got that very strong september report. but, it's been weak for a better part of the year. and then, of course, getting into next week is the election and of course the fed meeting. and i do think the fed has the makings of having a discussion about the maturity profile in the portfolio, and whether they ought to be facilitating all of this government spending.

so, to me, it's just a wild sequence of nine days. you know, amidst that -- an interesting election. >> well, the other issue is just what you really think is driving the entire in the treasury market. we talked about that with steve earlier, too. is it the potential for weakness in the economy? is it concern for needs of the treasury with the amount coming up? we've seen higher yields and that poses a problem just in terms of what it means for budget deficits for united states, too. >> yeah, there's no doubt that the supply issue is a very big deal. i reject people that say there's been no evidence that the treasury market hasn't reflected the increase in supply. we saw a very sharp selloff from the first quarter of 2021. and in both cases, treasury and fed took action to tamp that down. but the fed can't even

monetizing that debt forever. one of the documents provided at jackson hole shows plenty affected the market. there's an issue and i agree with torsten slok about that. the question is like the bear market from 1951 to '81, the only thing that interrupted that bear market is recessions or periods of extreme weakness. the question is the labor market really as strong as that september number implied? if we get a weaker number, i think people will look past it a little bit, but i do think the small business sector is weak. and that's really the only thing that can prevent the treasury market from retesting 5%. >> what do you tell investors to do here, if you're concerned about some of these issues, so much riding on this, do you put more money in the market ahead of this or not? >> not ahead of the fed. but we've had a pretty healthy position in tech. communication services,

industrials. energy. so, i would stick with that but i still would have cash, you and i talked about that a couple times this year. i think that still makes sense because there is so much risk, that tax policy issue is a big one. >> barry, thank you, barry knapp. coming up, breaking job data, adp private payroll next, stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

♪ welcome back to "squawk box." we are now approaching october's adp employment report. the futures, take a look right now. red on the screen, on the dow, nasdaq up marginally, s&p 500 up as well. that number is coming in just a moment. like now. >> we're going to do it, andrew. i'm going to tell you what is a blowout, adp jobs numbers, private sector, 283,000, that's the forecast up from 113,000. service, good sector up 222,000, sector, 211,000. there's the nonfarm payroll estimates friday, government and

private sector at 100. i don't know what the street does with that, by the way, adp was revised up 16,000. so closer, but last month, she were still underneath, i don't know if this is potentially catch-up. in a second, i'll give you data here. the job substantially will large businesses, small up 4,000, medium, 86,000. and large, 140,000. where are the jobs, the places where they've been, education, home service up 53. trade and transportation, utilities, 51. leisure and hospitality doing well. and only one, manufacturing down. and as promoted -- >> well, before we get to that. a lot of questions for her. i'd like to see, futures haven't moved a whole lot. i'd like to see what yields are doing. this morning, steve, you told us

the only thing that's going to put pressure on yields this morning is weaker economic data. this is certainly not that. >> yeah. >> the 25, the ten-year earlier, 422, 421 when we checked. it's a little higher this morning. >> yeah, it's a little higher. here's the rates, becky, taken from millions of actual paychecks up 4.6%. that's down a tenth from the prior month. that's job stayers. people staying at their jobs. job changers, 4.6%, but that's down 0.4% from the prior month. it's andrew's job to introduce her. >> you can do it, right there. you can do it. >> okay, ladies and gentlemen, let's bring in mila richardson, chief economist at adp. >> how long do you have to know these numbers in your head? >> i'm still like constantly remembering them, so i'm ready

with the numbers, luckily, i have steve here. >> you probably know this already, your plus-minus absolute difference over the last 29 month months is payroll numbers. first question, how do you treat strikers? >> so, as long as a worker -- by the way, good morning, i'm thrilled to be here in person. as long as the person, is on payroll, we count them. whether they got paid or not, they're still counted. >> how does the government count strikers? >> they count the number of people who received a paycheck, if you work an hour or 40 hours, it makes no difference. >> so if a striker did not receive a paycheck, they might not be counted in the government? >> that's right. >> and you do it because they're still on the payroll, still an employee. >> still an employee. >> that could be the difference, plus or minus 30,000. how about the hurricane, what did you see in terms of the hurricane? >> so, we saw a quick effect in

terms of the number of people who got paid. it's data. what we report are people on active payroll. but we still have paychecks. we still know who got paid during that week. >> right. >> during the referenced week which is when hurricane milton touched base, the reference week is the week we count in terms of the jobs numbers we saw a 7% dip in both north carolina and florida of workers who received a paycheck. that next week, the week of october 20th, it rebounded. so, yes, there was an effect, but it was short-lived. >> but that did not show up in your data because they were still on payroll. >> on payroll. >> however, they did not show up -- so, this is fascinating and let me tell you why, because the whole game with the friday number is looking through the distortions to understand the underlying strength. >> that's right. >> what you're saying is there's a lot of underlying strength if these people were not fired. >> that's right. >> and that we should really look through a low number

because it's strikes and hurricanes and that the number is more in line with what you're saying? >> i think so. we expected a cloudy messy october for a variety of reasons, two of which you just outlined but what the adp data does is make that clear. we know who's on payroll, right? and it rhymes with other data like the other jobless claims which also saw a peak-up and then down with the hurricane. >> so does the fed pay attention to that? >> i think the fed is page attention to a lot of economic data. you can't be data dependent for three or four years and not see the whole scope of private sector and public sector data. yes, this is input with other inputs of how the fed is making the decision. you're seeing a broadly distinctive economy. >> we have to wrap. but here's a question, what

about the wage data? the wage data seems to be coming down. the fed has said it does not see the job market as a source of inflation, is that your read? >> for inflation watchers, this is the most important part. the economy is having its cake and eating it, too. it's creating all of these jobs, while at the same time, wage growth is coming down and that's good news for inflation. so, we're really in a sweet spot in october. i don't know how long it lasts but i'll take it this month. >> this number today is going to be a big factor in thinking about understanding the number on friday. >> sure. >> and i know people dismiss the adp number because it may or may not correlate or be helpful in the model, but this is something -- >> it's gotten better since she was here, right? it's gotten better. who was the last one, sandy? >> well, if she's not here, all you got is me. >> well, adp, though. and retirement savings. presentation looks great.

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with snap and reddit and google with stocks higher going into the morning. analysts expect meta to grow its revenue, 18%, a slice deviation from last year's 22% growth. while earnings protected by 2%. and meta will be in focus, a possible headwind for the stock. as a positive impact, though, of a.i., after last quarter, met tall boasted that its a.i. assistant is on track to be the most used in the world. and it explained how a.i. drove results for advertisers and in effect for meta. now, there's other key areas to watch as well. meta's progress monetizing wheels, plus some tough comparison when chinese retailers were spending on ads. joe, based on what we heard from reporting on companies yesterday afternoon, the market is pretty healthy. there seems to be robust ad

market commentary there. we'll hear about all of that and more when we have an exclusive interview this morning with s.n.a.p.'s ceo evan spiegel coming up in "money movers" and 11:50 a.m. eastern and, joe, we'll have the earnings after the bell. >> yeah, so many things to parse. you know, is it all about the ad market now? is it about a.i. spending? i mean, is it about -- there's so many different -- the tech, i mean, everything, the landscape, everything is changing so quickly that i feel like i need to go back to school or something. >> well, look, here's the thing with meta. they've managed to grow their revenue, even in certain quarters accelerate the revenue regardless of what's going on with the ad market. i think what we've seen interesting over the last couple years, meta pivoted from talking about being a metaverse company and a.i. company, and while they're talking about making long-term a.i. bets, we're

seeing them pay off in the near term, not only with the ad but making their productbeer.s tt >> thank you, julia. up next, our first look at third quarter gdp. we already got the adp number. this could be interesting too. "squawk box" will be right back.

we're just seconds away from the first look at third quarter gdp. the futures this morning showing the dow down by 75 points. nasdaq up by about 20. s&p up by 3 points. treasury shows the shields have picked up, two-year at 413. ten-year at 426. rick santoli is standing by. rick, take it away. >> this is exciting. third quarter gdp. 2.8%. many were looking for 3. 2.9-ish was probe the highest percentage in terms of percentages, rear view mirror is 3, of course, you can see where 2.8 fits in. let's look at consumption, shall we? we're expecting a number around 2.2%. zoom, zoom, zoom, 3.7%.

that's the best. going all the wait back to the first quarter of '23, to '23. that's a boost deal a little bit. and if we look at the price index, expecting 1.9. rear view mirror, 2.5, good news, 1.8, 1.8 is lightest since 1.5 the last quarter of '23. you know, you have two ways to look at it, nice progress, but been there, done that, and lower level already. if we look at core, price index quarter over quarter, same scenario, came in very low expectations at 2.2. well below 2.8 and 2.2 fits in last quarter of '23, when it was 2.0. 2.0. we see yields now hovering right around 426 1/2-ish, do keep in mind, before adp, it was 422, the two-year a whisker below

4.18 was 4.48, you see the yields moving up and led by the short end which makes sense for expectations for the fed. with the fed, we've seen very few signs of that, on the inflation front, regional areas, to germany have seen hotter inflation already released. top of the hour, we see the actual german number. you want to pay very close attention to some of those across-the-pond numbers. and finally, we still have many important data points for the rest of the week. tomorrow, employment costs, index, personal income, the bce numbers. so this is going to be a very busy week. and it's the quiet period. back to you. >> rick, stay right there. we do have breaking news from the treasury department. megan casella joins us now. and the plans for the

quarter fourth planning to auction off $140 billion. no surprises for the treasury market here. a few more of the numbers for you guys. treasury says it will be refunding just over $116 billion, raising about 8.6 billion in new cash. the breakdown in ten-year will remain the same as before. 58-billion option for the three-year, 42 billion for the ten-year and 25 billion for the 30-year. the other piece of good news in the market for its release, treasury is maintaining its guidance but continues to hold the options steady for what it says will be the next several quarters. that language has been in there for the past few cycles but there had been speculation that it could get count. saying on monday it's planning to borrow more than anticipated early next year. and potentially having to borrow more money in the next administration. for now, guys, treasury is

sending the signal of stability and said they expect the auctions to hold steady in the months to come. back to you, guys. >> thank you. for more on that, dana peterson, our own steve liesman, mike santoli as well. steve, you remember earlier this week, we were talking about something we were going to get on wednesday in terms of coupon size, of whether we're going to start worrying about -- >> yeah. >> anything? >> no, i didn't hear anything, what megan was saying, i'm so glad in the story she reported. >> and the stability, so -- >> they don't want to make waves right now, joe. if it's to be made next quarter and the quarter after that, there's a huge massive interesting discussion for another day about the debt ceiling and how the treasury manages a january debt ceiling with an august running out of money because they have all of these different ways of

accounting, yada, yada, yada. but that's not the story for today, they're keeping it kind of quiet. i love your comment, who said i grade the treasury on pass/fail? >> and this other guy who wants it right now -- you grade -- you're a tough grader, rick, you don't grade on a curve? >> no, i don't grade on a curve. here's what i see fascinating. we're seeing the refunding coming out, whether you're following the packages, two, fives, sevens, they're going up a bit. when we go to wow, expectations match the size of auctions, i have issue with that look at auctions two years ago, three years ago, they're going up in sizes. other than today, yields going lower, now they're moving back up that is because a breath of relief out of auctions we already had.

two out of three were very weak, the seven was strong yesterday. i don't mean to change the tone of what we're discussing here, but this supply issue is tantamount to anybody thinking about trading fixed income, investing in fixed income. globally, there's going to be so much extra issuance, whether china, uk, eu, klein talking cutcut cutting china talking about cutting spending. don't believe it. >> can we talk about the gdp number -- >> do you want to ask dana? >> no, i don't want to do that. i tried to do that earlier, i don't think i do a good job. >> dana, will there come a time where this isn't so easily digested and is the ten-year telling us that it's closer than we think or not? >> well, i mean, when i look at the data today, we had 2.5%. so 2.8 is not that far off, we just missed on government which is outsized.

but i think the key thing is that consumers continue to spend. they spent on a lot of goods and also services. they bought cars, they bought furniture, and that's because prices are falling. residential investment was weak again. but we think that's going to improve as the fed starts cutting interest rates more. when it comes to trade, we few there would be volatility, exports were very strong but imports were stronger. certainly because companies were trying to get ahead of the port strikes which ultimately didn't happen. all in all, i think this is a strong report, i think the fears about the u.s. going into recession, those kinds of fears are very misplaced. >> dana, i just think you double-take on this data because i don't know if i have it right here. i'm seeing 1.5 on the headline pce price index and 2.2 on the core, is that your read? i think that's a lot below expectations? >> 2.2 -- >> hold on, the personal

consumption index increased 1.5% compared to 2 -- dana, i don't know what you're looking at but that's what i saw there. >> yeah, 1.8 is the number on price index, 2.2 is the core price index. >> okay. but these are well below expectations. >> yes. >> and we have the consumer doing 3.7%. we have nela richardson here, dana, and maybe mike, too, talking about being in the sweet spot. i think that's a sweet spot to me. >> i think we are in a sweet spot. i think you'll agree with me that the labor market is doing okay. we've had strong readings on payrolls, unemployment rate has ticked back down. the only reason it froze, half the people saying yes, i got laid off, the other half are entrants, and reentrants.

i'm worried about the core but we're getting closer and closer to the fed's 2%. and that's great, that's suggesting that the fed can go ahead and cut interest rates over the next year and a half and get it. >> there's a san tolli, i don't know if you want to talk about, mike santoli, do you prefer alphabet, amd? where do you want to go? >> i usually throw it all in a pot and go where it goes down to. right now, s&p 500 flattish and hovering not too far from all-time highs. the move in yields clearly has the attention of all investors, and clearly, there's a fear, because we know how much supply is likely to be coming on a consistent basis to worry that it is going to be basically be too much. right now, it doesn't seem to me in the clearing price in the way

of yields is punitive for the economy. because we just showed you, we're growing pretty well through this period. we're at a level of 4.25-ish on the ten year, late july, and we were breathing a sigh of relief we were down from 5. i don't think it all matters when it's going to become a lot tougher to find buyers for this paper as we issue more and yields are going up for non-economic reasons. that's a problem for stocks. right now, i think we're navigating it okay. i mentioned the s&p 500, all-time high. the nasdaq has been doing more of the lifting in the last couple of weeks. clearly, yields have held, i think some of the equity valuations in check. we haven't had any net progress in the s&p in 2 1/2 weeks. obviously, there's a whole interplay here that moves over time. i don't think we're at a moment, though that seems like any kind of a breaking point. >> santilli, what was your

point, your point is it's within expectations but it keeps going up year after year, as we just keep enabling more and more? >> you know what, targeting expectations is a mugs game, okay? just because it's close to expectations doesn't mean anything to me. i want to know where it was, actually where it was and where it is. expectation is a fudge factor. i agree with mike on that. but the difference is before we were coming down when we were talking about how nice 4.25 is, but now we're coming from what people thought, many investors thought could be at 3.5%. fed cut 50 basis points. it's the direction and what is causing it to go up. i have never witnessed such a market pushback on a fed policy where the first rate cut, supposedly in a series of rate cuts was so -- you remember when we used to watch some of those games with richard dawson, you

heard -- ehh -- that's what the market did to the fed -- ehh, didn't like the answer, didn't like the rate cut. >> survey says -- there's an expression on leasiesman's face that i've seen before, and i could definitely get something started if i were so inclined. don't do it? >> it's interesting, joe, there's a lot -- there's a lot of stuff on the table. what rick is talking about is on the table, what mike's talking about is on the table. market has better growth. lower inflation numbers. and a fed that can cut with the consumer going up 3.7%. and you have this large issuance of bonds that is following the market. but you also -- as -- i forgot who pointed it out, you have rates that are much lower than a year ago, that's important but not unimportant what rick is say. i just think, you got to take everything that mike said, put it in the stew, it's a good one

for us. that's my take on it. >> okay. we'll end on that positive note, thanks dana, thank you liesman, santoli and santelli and you. coming up silicon valley money and race for president. chris kelly is going to be joining us for that conversation. reminder, cnbc is going to be live all night long on election night next week. we'll have the results as they come in and get the reaction from biggest names in business. you can stay with cnbc all night long. and you can ke uwap with us on "squawk box," starting early at 5:00 a.m. hopefully, we'll have a better sense of where the country is ed had headed. we'll be right back after this.

welcome back to "squawk box." silicon valley experiencing some pretty big political polarization this election season, just like everywhere else in the country, elon musk

and mark cuban have jumped into the fray, meta's mark zuckerberg trying to stay out of the lime light. in the big tech, chris kelly is mere, the chief financial officer involved with crypto. good to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> what do you think is happening in the valley? it was always the sense it's a libertarian view, then there's a view it's moves very left. >> right. >> now it seems as divided as ever, maybe has moved right. i don't know. >> i think there's a lot of movement from folks who had a more libertarian viewpoint to adopt more conservative positions, or what trump conservatism has come to look like. but i think there's always been a solid basis. you know, pro-business moderates who just want to make sure we're doing fantastic things to further the economy. i think that's where, you know,

kamala harris has ended up leading the pack and is actually drawing people, including ben horowitz and jason horowitz back in the fold a little bit. >> we talked about it at the time, when ben horowitz came out quite publicly for former president trump. >> a full podcast. ben has known kamala for years, basically said, a., there's a real possibility that she's going to win this thing which i still think is the most likely outcome. and that she's actually been pro-innovation over time. >> by the way, you said you think she's going to win and you feel confident about it? why do you feel confident? we can look at the polls, betting markets. you're in the crypto business. i don't know what you saw as bitcoin's rise signals? >> i think what's happened, i actually know a lot about politics and what it takes to win a race, and she's just got a

much better ground game than he does today. the reason he's melting down on truth social is he's buying pennsylvania and he knows it now. i think you'll see a lot of fomentating this week and a big turnout, she's in certainly a better position. i'd much rather be her than him at this point. >> chris, in terms of what we've seen from the biden administration and what you said as department of justice going after the big names in silicon valley, maybe small entrepreneurs are in favor of this, how does that play out in terms of investors not to mention what you've seen from lena kahn? >> yes. what the way it goes about, particularly in the crypto business. gary doesn't have any fans in silicon valley. he shouldn't. regulation by enforcement is always a failed strategy. but, you know, harris has

signaled that she wanted to make sure we're innovating in bloc blockchain, and trump has come being a scam. >> how does she feel 2010. that's what i left facebook to do was run for attorney general in california against her, losing the democratic primary after, i think, making a decent showing, but i think that there are a whole bunch of agreements among moderate democrats and moderate independents that we need change in that area, and i think that's been expressed to her by mark cuban and by myself and others, and i think you'll see change. i'm not sure that there will be a replacement for lina khan, but i certainly think there will be -- >> you're a moderate democrat and you ran against her. did she run as a moderate democrat? >> at that point, i wouldn't say she did, but she was a local law enforcement. >> what was she then? >> she had been the san

francisco district attorney. >> so, she was not moderate? >> i wouldn't say that she's not moderate. >> back then. did you run right or left of her? you were totally right of her? >> it's a little bit hard to say. i ran to very innovative strategy, being skeptical about her coming out of the san francisco political establishment that she would be innovative, and as it turned out, as attorney general -- >> now you view her as a moderate democrat? >> i do. >> you do? >> how come there are so many people -- you just think it's nasty political rhetoric that she's a far-left democrat? she has had positions in the past that were far left. many, many, many, many. >> yes, that's true. >> but you believe that she's now evolved? >> i do, and i think that her service as attorney general in california and as u.s. senator from california got her to understand the technology industry a lot better than she had, perhaps, when she ran initially. and that, you know, how she

actually governed was not a threat to the industry. >> okay. i wasn't just talking about tech and things like that. >> slightly different question for you, because we have been talking more recently about it, about sort of the shift in the way that ceos, public company ceos, oftentimes obviously, you don't run a public company. >> i don't. >> lackland doesn't run a public company. mark cuban doesn't run a public company. elon musk does, interestingly. >> yes. >> but you have something that has shifted in the -- in this world, which is public company ceos seem to not be willing or want to enter the fray in the way they might have before the -- you know, the kind of thing make a mark zuckerberg might have said in the past, you know, we talked about how in the old days, jamie dimon would make donations in his own name. warren buffett was out on the campaign trail many years ago for hillary clinton, quite vocally so. and there's now big questions about jeff bezos owns "the washington post" and what's

going on with endorsements or not endorsements. what do you think the role of a business leader should be in this election and in elections broadly? >> well, i think in this election, unfortunately, sort of a culture of fear has begun to pervade statements. i mean, when mark is threatened by trump with jail time over the possibility of him doing anything in the election, which elon's got not just his thumb but his whole body weight on the scale, showing trump, you know, propaganda on x at this point, it's hard for people to say -- >> but nobody wants to be a fascist or a nazi either. do they? >> they certainly don't want to be. >> right. so, if they -- if they overtly or openly back trump, they're nazis. >> i don't think that's the case, at least for most of the way that most people react. >> you haven't seen people being called nazis or fascists lately? >> i've seen a little bit of that. >> little bit? >> yeah. but i don't think that an average voter or an average

executive in silicon valley -- >> if you think that this election is as consequential as i think you do, don't you think that the people who are, frankly, the wealthiest in america should be -- should be the bulwarks? meaning, to the extent that they should feel like they can stand up and say, whatever they think, that may be, by the way, that they are voting for trump or voting for harris, but that this sort of everybody being beat into submission thing, is that good for democracy or not? >> i think it's terrible for democracy. and i think that we need to have a major reset after this election. i think that what we're doing right now is unfortunately kind of baked, and it's not going to be pretty for the next week, and i hope that that doesn't get extended much. but i do think we need a full reset in america to think about how public people, you know, make their statements about how they're voting and what they believe about democracy. >> chris, thank you for coming on this morning. >> thanks so much. "squawk box" will be right back.

(man) these men of means with their silver spoons. what will become of them when they discover robinhood gold allows others to earn their very liberal rates on idle cash.

they would descend into chaos.

today's top earnings mover include caterpillar and eli lilly. tonight after the bell, we'll get meta and microsoft, and joining us so talk it through is stephanie link, a cnbc contributor, and why don't we start with eli lilly, steph,

because this morning, it's down more than 10%. some concern about demand out there for the -- for these -- zepbound, the weight loss drug. >> look, very high expectations, up 55% year to date. at 67 times earnings, you need it to beat and raise, and they didn't. they lowered the high end of the range by $600 million compared to the last couple of quarters where it raised by 2 to $3 billion for the full year in revenues. but just take a step back. the total addressable market for obesity is $150 billion by 2030. diekts diabetes is the same. the company just grew. it speaks to the overall portfolio within oncology, immunology, neurosciences, so -- and then the one fact that or the stat that the ceo talked about is sequentially prescription growth grew 25% for mounjaro and zepbound.

i don't own it, but i would love to take a look at this, down 10%. it's a very good quality franchise. >> let's talk about caterpillar because the dow was higher this morning in the futures markets before we heard from caterpillar. that stock down 3%. that brought the dow down as well. what do you think about what you saw? >> i mean, look, the stock is also up a lot this year, up 31%, and it's not exactly cheap at 18 times forward. it's not a surprise that construction industries was weak as well as resources. the highlight was energy and transportation and the big highlight is operating margins. 20% on an adjusted basis. if you go back to 2017 to 2022, their operating margins were 14%, so they are structurally doing the right things on the margin side, and i think you want to continue to own this as an on shore, reshore play and certainly power. >> steph, thank you very much. stephanie link, we'll see you a little later. in the meantime, keep an eye on shares of super micro computer. they are plunging after the company revealed in a regulatory

filing that dy has resigned as its registered public accounting firm. ey, not dy, said that it had questions about the company's commitment to integrity and ethical values in connection with an accounting review. that stock is now down by almost 23%. >> that's never great. >> keep an eye on it closely. that does it for us today. join us tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla, jim cramer, david dade at post nine of the new york stock exchange. q3 gdp and adp employment come in strong, actually now red. it's caterpillar's miss that's going to way on the dow. we'll get to more on the way tonight. our road map begins with this disappointing drug sale weighing at lilly. plus, caterpillar cutting its annual sales forecast on