tv Fast Money CNBC October 30, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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it's halted right now, semens is buying it, $10.6 billion. this is an engineering software firm. >> jim's been on fort knox, know that company well, interesting move with all the data going into that area right now. >> all right, watching for microsoft and meta calls and amazon trading higher in sympathy for microsoft. that does it for "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. earnings abound. $5 trillion worth of market cap reporting after the bell, from meta to mocha lattes, we are bringing you the trades. plus, weighty losses for eli lilly, as the glp-1 drugs come up short. what it says about prospects of the company and for competition in the space. and later, super slump for supermicro. the one-time semistandout nearly erasing all gains for the year,
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as its auditor calls it quits. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, steve grasso and guy adami. we start with a monster night on earnings. kate rogers has tstarbucks, but we start with julia boorstin and meta. >> the call just getting under way, as meta beat on the top and bottom lines. meta guiding to stronger than expected revenue growth in the fourth quarter. the stock did move lower in afterhours trading. so, what would be weighing on the stock in well, the company's revenue growth was stronger than expected, but still a deceleration from the last two quarters growth rate. user figures also missed estimates. daily active people of 3.29 billion, short of the 3.31 billion that analysts anticipated. and the company raised the low end of its full-year capital expenditure range, guiding to 38
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to $40 billion, up to the prior $37 to $40 billion range. ceo mark zuckerberg saying in the release that the quarter was good and it was driven by a.i. progress. also saying they have strong momentum with meta a.i., lam ma adoption, and also their a.i.-powered c ed glasses. expectations were so high going into this report, and the stock has doubled in the past year. back over to you. >> there's also mention of, quote, significant acceleration in infrastructure expense growth next year. how do you interpret that? >> yeah , so, meta has been cler that expenses were going to increase in 2025 and they are reiterating that. they said, we are warning that expense costs are going to continue to increase. they are investing so much in a.i., melissa, and that's obviously expensive. >> all right, julia, keep us posted. conference call getting under way right now. julia is all over it. karen, how do you interpret this? minor -- relatively minor,
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considering the run. >> a few days ago, it was 560. yeah, so, it's relatively minor. a couple of things that i thought were really good, which was the average price per ad, which is up nicely, though the impression growth was not as good. i thought the free cash flow was really good. you know, the street hates to see giant spend, so if they put a number on it that's different than what the street has modeled in, that -- that's higher, that will probably be a bad thing, but i thought it was pretty good on top of what we're really difficult comps to beat, so, i'm -- you know, down 1.5%, 2%, whatever it is right now. i still feel very good about the story. i think that this price per ad, that -- i mean, that is -- that is the promise right there, right? that we've been talking about for a.i. >> right. >> karen's right to point it out. it was up 11%, the street was -- so, they basically doubled what the street was looking for. street was at 5.5%. free cash flow came in $15.5
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billion, the street was at basically 12. very good. i think what's -- the reason the stock is selling off, if i'm trying to handicap this, the fourth quarter guide wasn't great. and the spend on a.i. may be scaring people. but with all that said, i mean, valuation-wise, and this quarter suggests you can still get your arms around facebook here. >> think of how high is bar is if meta, which is the one mag seven name that has been able to really quantify the monetization of a.i., is spending on a.i. and the stock gets dinged for that even though they are making money off of that spend. >> yeah, and i -- because this is a company that's ridden the roller coaster of capex. and for meta, for the metaverse, it didn't work. for meta, the company, it has worked, certainly as it goes to a.i. year over year, 3q, up 35% on net income, is extraordinary. almost apologetic. the lowest in fourth quarters, big deal. and think the daily average user growth that's slower, who cares? i have to say, i mean, that's not a concern, especially when most of the world is on your
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platform. i think it's a case where the bar is very high. weakness here is kind of what you have to do -- as guy said, that guide for the 4q, it's slightly above the middle of the guide. did you want it a lot better? you kind of need to after the year this company has had. this company is as defensive as any of the mag sevens, and that and google, to me, and it is about valuation and the growth they're giving you for a company that large to be growing like this. >> the gold standard, right? so, they beat everyone else as far as year to date performance. but when you say about spend, back when they were ridiculed for spending and penalized for it, it was about the metaverse. no one knew what the metaverse was. now it's about a.i., everyone -- >> turns out they were right. >> exactly, yeah. but when you look at it, meta a.i., 500 million maus. i don't understand what part of this meta a.i. that they have a half a billion people using
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every month, do you? because they're still getting paid for it now. so, is it ads? are they building ads? are people using the ads that they're -- >> the price per ad is going up because their ads are so much better. so much more targeted. >> so, metaverse, they got zip from, no one knew what it was. this, at least, they're getting paid on it, and then they're going into a sweet spot for the other ventures, for all the vr stuff, for all the things that everyone buys for their kids, they're back into the glasses, they've made the glasses more cool than they used to be, maybe people will start buying those things, too. >> one other thing i just really want to point out, total cost and expenses, which are not the a.i. capex spend, are down. and that's, i mean, we wanted -- >> some offset. >> there is some offset. maybe they're using a.i. in an efficient way to run their company. i wanted to see that from google, we didn't yesterday, but everything else was good enough that it didn't really matter. so, i would like to see them continue down that path of running it more -- >> there was oblique reference
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to some of the cost savings in that they talked about the percentage of lines of cold that were generated by a.i. -- >> 25%. >> 25%, as opposed to written by engineers. maybe it's just a matter of time -- >> works its way through. >> quantified. >> you're seeing it in operating margins. 42.7%. the street was at 39.5%, up from last year, without question. and to karen's point, i mean, a.i. is helping them get the numbers they're getting, so, they should, i think, benefit from the spend, but i get it. it's happened before with the stock, but again, i'll say, i don't think you run very far from facebook here. >> let's get to microsoft. that stock is up after the company beat on the top and bottom lines and raised guidance. steve kovach's got all the details. steve? >> yeah, that's right, mel, it was beats on the top and bottom line, along with reaccelerating growth in azure cloud and how much a.i. is adding to that number. the beat was at 20 cents.
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revenue beat by a billion bucks. azure growth also a significant beat, growing 33% year on year versus expectations of a built over 29%. but something about that number, it may not be direct ly comparable, since microsoft switched around some of its segment reporting for this quarter. and boosting that azure growth number is of course artificial intelligence. a.i. contributed 12 percentage points of that growth. earnings call kicked off at 5:30, where we'll get guidance and more commentary on important metrics like capex for a.i. by the way, microsoft previously said it will be spending $20 billion a quarter this fiscal year. mel? >> all right, steve, thank you. keep us posted, steve kovach. conference call about 20 minutes time, we'll get the guidance then. so, we're trading right now on a very limited basis in terms of information, but your first take on the quarter? >> we are waiting for the guidance to come in a little bit, but i just think with microsoft, this of all of them, though, is probably the one that has the most predictability to
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what's going on with their a.i. business. the story, unlike google and meta, it's about valuation. just a question of what you want to do here. the azure growth is excellent. if you think about where we've gone over the last three quarters in terms of where that was something that was a big concern, you're now picking up the pace. i think the numbers are fine. i think there's less to be excited about, though the street seems to be pretty happy with what's going on here. >> yeah. karen? >> well, i want to hear the call, right? you always want to hear the call, because you can get so much more color than sometimes you get g tfrom the release. but i thought productivity was good, as well. i want to hear about that. but again, it's just a question of, what do you want to pay for that? i feel like it's a little rich. >> probably more expensive. >> but still -- >> yeah, if i'm doing the math, it's probably trading maybe 29 1/2 times next year's numbers now, at this current price point. obviously it's not traded great since july, but we're right back against levels that we
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previously got to in july, so, that's good. dan ives was just on "closing bell," i think this is going to be the first $4 trillion company. and he made be right, but -- it's a fine quarter. the reacceleration of azure, that's a good thing. it's an expensive company at these levels. >> compared to peers -- >> compared to itself. >> higher than the five-year basis on a forward basis at this point. >> definitely expensive compared to itself, and that's what i think everyone on the desk is worried about. if you look at the stock chart, it looks like a pennant formation, where it has to break above 438 or so, or else it's probably going to be used as resistance, and i think you just have to sit back, wait, i wouldn't buy it here. >> all right. for more on meta and microsoft, let's bring in deepwater asset management's gene munster. great to get your initial takes here. let's kick it off, since we just ended with microsoft here, your take on the quarter. >> it's all about azure, and they didn't need to hit that bogey that google set, but they
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did need to see an acceleration, and azure, they showed that from 29 to 31. i was expect ten points of that growth was going to come from a.i., which is effectively their openai relationship. in fact, 12 came from it, which means that their core azure business excluding a.i. has been stable, growing at 21%, despite the law of large numbers. the other piece i'm really cued in here to is to hear some real substance on the call about co-pilot adoption. last quarter, they had 31 comments in their prepared remarks around co-pilot. none of them gave any real substance in terms of what this actually means in terms of monetization. so, i'm going to be keyed into that. >> we going to get numbers, gene? they spoke in sort of broad directional terms, like the number has doubled or something like that, but they didn't actually give a firm number on co-pilot customers. >> that's correct. i mean, they are -- just -- i'll sail notorious, amazon does the
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same thing, after cyber monday, give just a barrage of data points that you try to triangulate. they did say probably the most substance last quarter was that 40% of github revenue has some sort of co-pilot. github is 5% of their business, so, it really doesn't matter. at the end of the day, these additional, 30 extra bucks a month, what does it mean -- what has it meant to their revenue and bottom line? and they have been avoiding that question. i don't think they're going to answer it today, but that's what i'm going to be cued in on. >> gene, do you think it's expensive right now? would you be -- i know it sounds like you're waiting on a couple of different things to sort of get you over that bubble, but you heard the conversation before with it looks expensive to itself. would you wait here to see if they are in the prove me state because of, you know, how they've come so far so fast? >> i think so, i mean, the
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bottom line is, this is probably the most stable of any of the megacaps when it comes to a.i., they grew 14% and just reported quarter. expectations of 14% and then again 14% for '25 and '26. steve, i think that's one piece that -- i do kind of look at this as a relative game, which one of the megacaps have kind of the best upside relative to valuation, and i think microsoft, they're doing a lot of great things, i don't think they've kind of hit that. the bottom line, i think this is expensive relative to an opportunity to like versus google. >> gene, it's karen. just to follow on on that expensive, what do you think -- where should this be trading? what's a multiple you would feel comfortable with? >> probably the mid to high 20s. if you're going at 14%, that feels like a good number, so we're a ways away from that, i think kind of on the out-year numbers, but i think that's a
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good number. google should trade at the mid to high 20s, and it's probably after today right around 20 or 21 times, 22 times, perhaps. but again, i think if you look at the a.i. opportunity and say which company's best positioned, i think google is a better positioned company. >> let's switch gears to meta, gene, because i want to get your take an the conference call is 14 minutes in. we've gotten a couple of headlines. the ceo saying that meta a.i. is now more than 500 million monthly active users. second headline says llama four models are training on a cluster that is bigger than 100,000 h-100 gpus a day, which gives you the sense of nvidia's business, for sure. but also, just how much intensity and focus there is there on a.i. and getting that model right, gene, so, what is your take on the quarter here? >> so, quick take on the quarter was related to what the guidance was. they typically come in at the high end of the range. that would imply 20% year over
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year revenue growth. they just reported 19%, so understand they had a high bar, they did guide, i view this as a guide of a fractional acceleration, which is positive. those numbers quickly, that 500 million number, that's a number that zuckerberg gave us a few weeks ago, and kind of this flexing around how much these companies are spending on all the output, all that's nice to hear, what matters is this, is zuckerberg's closing comment on the earnings call, he said this is the most unique moment this company has ever had ahead of it, and they are going to be aggressively investing in that, and i think that's what you're seeing with all this gpu. they're going to be -- stay on that accelerator, and i think that's a good sign for meta investors, because clearly, this is having a tangible impact. probably of any of the megacaps, besides nvidia, meta's actually seen the tangible impact of a.i. faster than any of them. >> gene, thank you. always good to see you. gene munster, deepwater asset
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management. tim, your take? >> well, i think on meta, you know, the reality labs feels kind of like an albatross right now. $22 billion loss, maybe it's not, didn't really know, and i think it gets back to, this is not the business we're all looking for at meta and we are looking at the core business, which has evolved to a place where a.i. is delivering margins and the company to actually be deserving of a valuation probably higher than the multiple it traded at in the past, so, that's the part of this that's fascinating. because, you know, he -- he continues to press reality labs, that continues to be a loss leader and that's something the market's given him a pass on. >> yeah. 100%. but again, i go back to it, this is two quarters in a row now for facebook where a.i. is seemingly helping the metrics that i think are important. average price per ad, double what the street is looking for and the margins are improving. so, you can justify -- >> that's arpu --
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>> arpad? >> ad opposed to user. >> i love this. it's nice. fun. >> anyway. just phipps the spend. that's the short-term. >> coming up, more afterhours action. coinbase, starbucks and robinhood on the move. but first, former cleveland fed president lorettmea ser is here to lay out what she sees next from the central bank. her rate cut timeline, when "fast money" returns. baing in two.
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welcome back to "fast money." private jobs growing. but a read came in short of estimates with the u.s. economy growing at 2.8%. these numbers coming ahead of friday's october jobs report. and the fed meeting next week. for more, let's turn to cnbc contributor loretta mester, former president of the cleveland fed. great to have you with us. welcome to "fast money." >> thanks for having me. >> what should the federal reserve do next week? >> good question. i would be continuing on the path of reducing the interest rate. i would do 25, i would not do 50. but there's nothing in the data that came in that really changes the median run outlook, which is
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kind of what they aim for. you're trying to set policy to effect the economy, but it won't effect it today, it's going to effect it eight months down the road, so, you're trying to sort of all when the data comes in, well, where is the economy going and where should weibrated with? also, you don't want to make sure you don't get too far out of whack if the economy doesn't perform the way you expect it to. it's all about keeping the monetary policy in a good place to be able to respond to risks if they man any fest themselves on either side, but really keeping it normalizing as the economy is normalized. >> what's your take, though, on the move that we've seen in the ten-year treasury yield versus what the fed has actually done, which is cut by 50 basis points in september, but the ten-year yield has been up by 60 basis points since then. >> i think a couple of things. the economy, the data's come in pretty strong. you mentioned that the third quarter report looks a little weaker than expected. but it's still well above strength growth rate of the economy, and people earlier in
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the year wouldn't have expected by this point that we'd still be above trend aon growth. the healthy labor market conditions, right, there was a scare that things were actually deteriorate mrg ing more than t would like to see, and that prompted a 50-basis point cut, but those numbers are come in pretty good. we'll get another read on friday, as you know, and that will give more insights into that, though noisy data, because of boeing's struck and the hurricanes, so, you have to take that with a little bit of a look-through, noise signal. but still, i think the economy is doing well and productivity growth has been remarkably good. so, i think all of that in, that's feedinginto where the markets are putting along. and then there's been a lot of talk about deficits, and, you know, that could lead to higher nominal long rates because of both the inflation that would be imbedded in that, and also, you know, in terms of having to induce people to hold those treasuries.
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>> so, how do you think about that, i mean, it's -- you know, fiscal policy and monetary policy and you can only do what you can do, but you're on the fed, this is a clearly growing problem that will one day burst. how do you factor that in? >> so, i think what you -- well, firstly, there's going to be a change in government or not, right? depending on what happens, so, we're going to have a new administration, right? and they're going to be setting fiscal policy, but we're not going to know much about that until, you know, next year sometime, so, at some point, you know, the staff of the fed will be imbedding sort of assumptions about fiscal policy into the models, so, it gets taken into account when you're thinking about, you know, monetary policy, in terms of the long run issue about financial markets. part of what the fed does all the time is sort of monitor conditions of financial markets, so, it is attune to those issues, but part of the problem with the deficit problem and the debt problem is, it's a serious problem. but it hasn't really affected things in a negative way so far, and it's one of these things,
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until you see the bond market reacting, i don't know whether there's any will to address that issue, so, you really can take into account and set your monetary policy, assuming there will be a reaction in the bond market. that's one of those things that you know it's part of what you're working in. you have to be ready for it, right? and be able to know how to react if it happens, but you can't really take into account in your sitting day-to-day monetary policy. so, it's a little bit of monitoring, but not overreacting to something that may or may not come in the foreseeable future. >> loretta, great having you, and i guess, so, speaking of liquidity conditions, and -- i guess i'm curious, how much does the fed really think about the wealth effect and the dynamics around a stock market that's at all-time highs, housing prices that continue to go higher, and how much of a factor, i don't know if you can quantify that, but again, that seems to be such a big part of -- i think a different period when we've had
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extreme dislocations in markets, up and down, but certainly on the downside. the fed has really targeted that wealth effect. so, targeted confidence, both in the housing market and even in the stock market, i remember back in 2008-9. >> well, certainly, when you're thinking about monetary policy, you do take into account financial conditions. and partly, it's because you know that it affects the wealth of the economy and the wealth of households and that affects their spending, so, it fields through to sort of your forecast for the economy, and then that influences how you set monetary policy, so, that's kind of the mechanism. but we don't, like, look at one interest rate or one particular stock market price, you know, you guys are always talking about different companies, as you did before, earlier in the show, that's not kind of how the fed looks at it, we look at the overall, what's happening in prices, what's happening in -- and that's from the point of view of looking at wealth and then its effect on the real
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economy. we monitor that for financial stability issues, so, we want to be monitoring those things to make sure the financial conditions remain in a way that doesn't foment some instability in financial markets, then we'd have to react to them. >> and the fed may not be political, right -- >> the fed is not political. you can be positive about it. >> politics do influence those things, financial conditions, the wealth effect. they are sort of interconnected some way, even if it's two times removed by the time the fed is thinking about it, so, in terms of the election next week, because it happens before the fed meeting, how does the fed start thinking about policies of an administration that will impact those things that the fed then is bound to look at? >> so, i would say two things. one, i mean, the fed is always looking at making sure that the financial markets are continuing to function, so, there's going to be volatility, i think we can, you know, say that, right,
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around that time, and so, they will be monitoring that at the new york fed, that has the open market operation, so, to make sure that the financial markets continue to have enough liquidity around those vola volatility. so, you are always prepared for things like that. but in terms of thinking about, what's the change in administration, you know, whether kamala harris wins or whether donald trump wins, it's going to take awhile to even understand what their policies are going to be, right? but then, at some point next year, first quarter, second quarter, that will become clearer, and then that will be -- those assumptions will be made and put into a model of the economy so that you can understand, okay, how are those things going to be -- whether it be tax policy, whether it be, you know, tariffs, right, those will be imbedded in an economic model that will help inform policy decisions, and every reserve bank will be doing similar with their models. but there's nothing immediate
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about the election next week other than sort of the more immediate thing about volatility in the financial markets, just ensuring that the financial markets continue to function. >> loretta, thank you so much for your time. come back any time. loretta mester. >> thank you very much. coming up, the earnings rolling in. and some major stock swings in today'seson. ssi jar min, qorvo, reddit. how should you trade the names when you see such big action? we'll debate right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money." some big stock moves catching our attention. first, shares of jar min jumping more than 23%, hitting an all-time high after better than expected results this morning. the company raising full-year guidance. apple supplier qorvo heading in the other direction, falling 27%, notching its biggest drop in more than 20 years. the company lowering its eps and revenue outlook for the second half of the fiscal year. reddit surging 42% on the back of its earnings report. the company reporting a quarterly profit for the first time ever and saying monthly users rose by 50% thanks to its new a.i. translation feature. more afterhours action.
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carvana surging after reporting earnings and revenue that beat estimates. doordash and booking holdings coming in above expectations. etsy jumping as remove thes came in higher than expected. and shares of ebay sinking. a pair of fintech stocks lower. robinhood and coinbase missing on the top and bottom lines. coinbase's ceo speaking to "overtime" in just the last hour. kate rooney has the details on both. kate? >> mel, so, robinhood, we'll start with that company, down double digits after hours, it was a miss across the board. top and bottom line coming up short. same with most of the key metrics for the quarter, including transaction-based revenue. the ceo chalking it up to what he described as an accounting disconnect, had to do with revenue that wasn't baked into analyst expectations. that had to do with the 1% to 3% match they've been doing on transfers into robinhood. executives on the call just say now they are going to wind down at least one of these promotions, but some of the others are still paying off.
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robinhood did see about $10 billion in net deposits and record assets under custody. $152 billion at this point. coinbase, that crypto company also missing estimates for profit and revenue, citing softer market conditions, transaction fees fell 27%. that was thanks to lower market volatility, which is often a key driver of that volume. coinbase announced a $1 billion share buy-back. they're focusing more on profitability. >> all right, kate, thank you. bitcoin pulling back todayafter very nearly hitting a fresh all-time high in yesterday's session. guy, which one? >> well, first of all, i think qorvo is a big deal, we'll learn more about it with apple. and that stock, i think, three years ago with the all-time high. robin hood, a great run off the august low, that's part of it. the one number i look at, $152
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billion now, that's the number you have to look at. so, i don't want to say the rest of this is noise, it's not. it's important. but the run is sort of hampered the stock. if it gets back down to 23 1/2, 24, which has been support before, i think you buy it there. >> they've had a lot of sin essentialives to bring those assets under their umbrella, too, that becomes promotional. and however crypto goes, so goes hood. >> i would wait a little bit. if you start to see bitcoin blast through again, makes new highs, you want to be a buyer. do not miss cnbc's special coverage of election night, all night long. we'll have results as they come in and reaction from the biggest names in business. it all starts at 7:00 p.m. from the new york stock exchange, right here on cnbc. coming up, lilly letdown. shares of the pharma stock sinking after its q-3 earnings mess. is this a sign the weight loss drug frenzy is starting to slim down? jared holz is here to dig into the results and tell us what he thinks is next for the stock. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.
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still, our next guest sees a prime buying opportunity. jared holz is health care sector strategist at mizuho. >> thank you. >> a lot of questions as to what was behind the miss in the third quarter. that goes -- to answer that question is to understand why lilly would be a buy. so, do you have an answer when it comes to the company's line that wholesalers were destocking in the quarter? >> well, i don't think we really have enough information to, you know, completely understand the dynamics that happen in the third quarter. i think we're really only into the third full launch of zepbound, and the second full year of mounjaro, so, it's a little bit tough to go back and search for a trend that kind of makes sense, that leads us to a definitive answer here. some of the destocking they talked about, i can see that based on what they said in a prior period about a lot of the distributors and the channel building up, and so, i think part of this was, it drifting
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the other way. the question is, why wasn't there additional restocking at the rate that we would have all thought considering the demand and, you know, what we've discussed so many times here. >> so, in your view, is there any question about demand? >> no, there's no question about demand. i think part of it is understanding, you know, the pace of which patients are starting, the pace of which they are moving onto the next dose, is that effecting the channels, you know, buying patterns, are they trying to understand how patients are taking the drug? what doses, and over what time period? i think all of these are factors. we don't really know. it's sort of like a opaque market. we have patients taking this for obesity, nonobesity, it's not totally clear. and the other thing, i think, is very, very tough to kind of navigate is this whole, you know, other market, which is the compounders and hims and hers and the other businesses that are taking some market share that we really can't see. >> although they said -- they
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really played that down, in terms of an impact there. >> yeah. >> couple things. we traded down to the august 5th low and bounced. that's a good sign. but was the selloff the quarter or was it david ricks' inability to sort of explain what was going on? i know it's a combination of the two. some of the answers were questionable at best. >> i agree. the main reason is you need a beat for, you know, a stock trading at all-time high with a valuation where it is, versus the rest of the group. i agree. i don't think he answered some of the questions that everyone was looking for answers on, as far as how -- why was the destocking, which he said was not all that material, i think he thought -- said it was a mid-single digit variance. the misses were larger than that. so, you got to beat that mounjaro line item and they didn't. >> a $600 million miss on mounjaro. it wasn't, like, a tiny little thing. >> right.
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and those are the two drugs that i think most investors thought were shoe-ins, especially zepbound. when you look at it sequentially, it barely grew, right? so, third quarter over second quarter for a drug that's only doing a billion seven or so is not great. >> so, let's turn to competition, both their own in-house and elsewhere. when do you expect that to be something that's relevant for actually making a dent in the road for novo and for lilly? >> right, i think this upcoming amgen data that we're going to get before year-end, to me, that's the biggest one. we've already seen a lot of good data from viking. they're kind of out there, they're going into phase three. i think they like fairly credible. >> meritide. >> right. i believe that could be something that winds up being discussed as a real competitive threat, if the dosing and the safety are good, and amgen can really market this as a less frequent injection, and the numbers look fairly comparable, i think that will be for a large
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cap pharma, large cap bio tech player that's credible, with a big sales force, that could be it. >> all right, you're like honorary trader here. >> he is. >> would you rather -- >> nice. nice. >> don't screw this up, by the way. >> lilly or amgen here? >> oh, my gosh. i think i would rather take lilly, i just don't love the variability with amgen. we don't know what we're going to get. i don't love the risk profile, because i truly don't know how to handicap the move. how much it could go up, how much it could go down. though i do feel like they will have something they move forward with, just based on their commentary, there's ten different doses they're looking at. one of them is probably going to work. so, it's probably a, you know, a trading long, but i think lilly down here is a good buy, too. >> thank you, jared. jared holz. >> thank you. coming up, starbucks on the move. we'll have the numbers and the latest commentary from the call next. but first, supermicro shares plunging. what had the auditor for the once red-holtt a.i. play sayingo
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auditor has resigned. the decision was due to information which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management and the audit committee's representations, unwilling to be associated with any financial statements prepared by management. supermicro delayed in august. with today's move, the stock is just $5 from erasing all of this year's gains. it received a notice from the nasdaq for noncompliance. they received that september 17th, i believe, so, 60 days from there is sort of mid-november, so, they've got a tight time line in terms of finding a new auditor, and adhering, once again, to compliance standards before being delisted. >> the s&p 500, one would think, the due diligence that was required to a company to enter would be the word rigorous. when they were put into the s and p, look at the high. it's been a disaster ever since. karen can speak to where she
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thinks it's going, a $33 stock, you do back of the envelope stuff, it should be right back where it started from, which is probably $10, $12. this is an abject disaster. we've done a good job warning people about it. >> you made a trade on this one today? >> i bought some puts, just because, you know, i called melissa, did you see this stuff? this is crazy. we were just looking at the board of directors, which is quite intertwined with management. that was kind of ridiculous in itself own. hindenburg did a piece, i mean, seemed to have done excellent work here, because the sort of intracompany, i don't know, revenues, call them, i guess -- >> right. >> for lack of a better word. >> between supermicro and a company that is run by the founder/ceo's brothers. that's a strange red flag there. >> but also to your point about the s&p 500, a few times they've had these issues, so, that's sort of -- that's kind of a black eye.
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but also, then, if you were thinking of buying supermicro, you know, storage, whatever it is, you really got to think twice. so, there's the disarray that's going on with the company and then, well, what's going to happen to the customer base? dell was up -- >> hpe. >> definitely beneficiaries of any sales that move away from supermicro. >> this has been, to karen and guy's point, this has been an ongoing thing for months? at least months, at the very least. but when you look at dell, i was shocked at dell's intraday sold off at the end of the day. so, people are dabbling in dell, and they don't know if they should get back into super on the discount, because they've been out of the woods a number of times on these things. so, is it an ongoing thing or is it the thing. >> to be fair, they did receive a notice of noncompliance from being delisted before. >> right. it would be a big thing. >> it would be, yeah. >> well, i mean, again, when the auditor says, we have new
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information that says we can no longer rely on management statements, i mean -- i don't know what that means. i can imagine that an auditing firm is going to be conservative and they have a risk management they have to think about. but if you're an investor with a stock that's basically never traded at a valuation that's made any sense, this is something that makes you feel like somebody knows something i do not, and that's how this stock has not just traded today, it's traded like that for awhile. ve aertsng up, starbucks on the moft i reports and some new announcements in just the last few minutes. all the details from the call next. stay tuned.
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can you do defying gravity?! yeah, get my harness. buy one line of unlimited, get one free for a year with xfinity mobile. and see wicked, only in theaters november 22nd. welcome back to "fast money." starbucks near after hours highs after making some news in just the last few minutes. the earnings call just wrapping up. kate rogers has the latest. >> hey, melissa. yeah, as you said, the stock started moving higher during the call, as the company released consumer-related news. it's going to be removing the surcharges associated with popular non-dairy milks including soip,y, oat, almond milks. starbucks says it is the
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second-most requested customization, and that will go into place on november 7th. it will be a price reduction of 10%. the call is the first time we're hearing from brian niccol. he said they need to broaden out marketing and get service times down to four minutes or less and make things easier for customers and baristas. he wants to focus on staffing, promoting from within. they're also bringing back condiment to the coffee bars in the calf tapes by early 2025, which will help with speed of service. niccol sat down for an interview that will air tomorrow on "squawk box." >> the business, even though it's got challenges right now, it's a really strong economic model. and we get these transactions going again, the economic model will continue to flow. >> you can tune into "squawk box" starting at 6:00 a.m. eastern for more on that. one more thing, niccol says
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they're bringing back the sharpies to write your name on the cup. >> i hope i get a smiley face again. kate, thank you. >> maybe. >> kate rogers. so, tim, you can have coconut, soy, almond milk for free now. >> guy usually says it like this, too. the next time i have coconut in my coffee will be the first time. anything other than half and half -- you need cream in your coffee. the four-minute aspirational experience, good luck on that. that's a big deal. then, also, going out there and saying, we are not going to raise menu prices until the end of fiscal '25, which will mean they'll have raised prices ten times in the last couple of years. they have a lot of work to do, i think, in terms of pricing, they've said they're lowering discounts. they pointed out they're going to have less food but higher quality food. he's saying the right things. he's certainly someone that has a track record that says he will address them. again, i think this is a guy that is obviously proven to be rock star status, but it's more from a marketing perspective than an operational one.
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if you think those are starbucks' problems, i'm not sure you get the quick solve. >> streamlining what's going on behind the counter is really important. in terms of that condiment bar that kate was mentioning, guy, you're like, condiments, i don't put salt in my coffee, but the milks and the creamers and the sugars, all that, that will make it a lot faster. >> why are we not trusted with milk and half and half anymore since covid? they took away the pitchers, you're not allowed to do this anymore. >> people are animals. >> that amends a lot of time and a lot of waste, because i say, give me half and half on the side and they fill up a cup when i just want this much, but i don't want them to do it. sorry, i'm worked up over this. >> four minutes is the average time that people take to order their stuff. i mean -- listen. i think he's a genius without question. the fact that the stock -- we heard a lot of this a week or so ago, so -- comps are down, transactions are down 10%. that's the bottom line. it's been a deteriorating business.
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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> karen usually dances with the one that bring her in the form of meta. i'm going to dance with meta tonight, sorry, karen. >> that's okay, i was thinking, why didn't i choose meta, okay. but now i'm trying to think about what i did choose? supermicro, do not buy it. more bad news to come. >> that was close. >> steve? >> it used to be the w in my wage trade, now it's the s in my sage trade. smurfit. >> it's not a clam or bly accept. but go ahead. >> speaking of clam, guy. >> well, first of all, loretta
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mester on the show. >> yes. >> tremendous. >> tremendous. >> great to have her. >> and jared. big show tonight, mel. >> huge. >> i'm looking forward to tomorrow, halloween with you -- >> boo. >> going to be fantastic. >> so much fun. >> the a in my clam continues to be agnico eagle will my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to "cramerica." i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer.
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