it's going to be see ya later. let's get a check on the markets here. all three major market averages are lower today and for a change set to end the month of october in the red. it will be the first time for that since i believe the spring for a couple of those ba rom meters. thanks for watching "power lunch", everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. thanks very much. welcome to "closing bell." scott wapner live from post 9 at the knock stock exchange. make or break hour, countdown to amazon and apple earnings. more important given the market's unsettling reaction today to microsoft and meta. both stocks are lower. we'll ask our experts what's at stake for stocks in tonight's reports. scorecard with 60 minutes to go. we've been down led by tech. nasdaq basically at the lows of the day down 2.5%. every megacap stock in the red. how about uber? a big drag today after the outlook in bookings disappointed

the street. shares of our parent company comcast are higher today after earnings and word it is considering a spin of its cable assets. we'll watch that. it's up 3 1/3 of a percent. talk of the tape. with another month in the books, what does lie ahead for your money over the remainder of the year? let's ask cameron dawson with me here at post 9 once again. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> how does the backdrop feel? >> not too surprising. we have been seeing this somewhat dangerous divergence start to brew over the last month where yields moved higher. earnings estimates were getting cut all the while the market kept pressing to new highs. it was based just on valuation. so now they are calling more questions about earnings with what microsoft and meta said into the outlook of 2025. not surprising to see some of the volatility catch up to us.

>> speaking of, dothese megacap reports -- is the lesson today, they need to be really perfect? if. >> i think so. given the fact that positioning is so crowded, we can talk about valuations, not all of them are very expensive, but we do know that a lot is riding on these earnings. if you look at the source of earnings growth in the third quarter, megacap was delivering all of the earnings growth. mag 7, 18% growth. the rest of the 493, .1%, which just means that they have to keep delivering. if you look at the street estimates, that kind of high teams growth is what's expected next quarter and through the remainder of 2025. >> what do you think on this final trading day of october has been the story of this month? is it the backup in yields? is that what the biggest take away is going to be? and what we need to watch closer than anything else? >> i think that it is the backup in yields because it's telling you that the increase in yields is not because of something necessarily that the fed is doing today but because the economy is holding up better

than expected. it is raising the questions of potentially higher inflation into 2025. we don't see evidence of that yet. look at the eci, the employment cost index today. we are not seeing a reacceleration in wage growth. i think people are starting to call into question, are we going to get the cuts from the fed if this economy isn't falling off a cliff. >> i mean, what if would are not going to get as many as we thought? how much does that matter? two more meetings before we turn the calendar into '25. what if we don't get 2? does that matter? >> it hasn't mattered. we got up to one cut priced in in. the market still continued to rally. i think the kicker for the market when it comes to the fed is the perception that if fed rates are going to weigh on growth. that's what happened in 2022. the fed said we're increasing interest rates. people started cutting their growth forecasts and that's how we had a bear market. if this market is still in an environment that says we can

tolerate higher rates, it means that the fed may not cut as much. certain pockets of the market might struggle like small caps, but overall aslong as the earnings story is intact, it can tolerate the higher rates. >> there's been some commentary that with valuations where they are you should expect muted returns in the years ahead. you don't sound that optimistic from the notes that i've seen that you gave to our producers for 2025, right? your base case is for lower returns. now are you talking about much lower? because we've had an amazing couple of years here. so do we need 20% return to be happy? i don't know. but what are you really talking about? >> we're talking about something that looks much closer to average at best. something that looks -- >> at best. >> -- sideways and choppy. the reason i say at best, if we take current consensus for eps growth at about 13%, say we don't know if we can really push valuations near 22 times that much higher, which just means at

best you get what you have with earnings growth and at worst you get multiple compression. it's a question as we move through the year where does that valuation multiple grow. we have to appreciate at today's levels there's probably a lot less up side than we had starting in '23 and '24. >> if i tell you, okay, economy is good, we know that. earnings are good, we know that. fed is cutting. so what if they're not cutting. then you have all of this pent-up demand for m&a. aren't all of those not just slightpositives for the market but big positives? >> add on top of it that we still have stimulative fiscal spending into a strong economy with the backdrop of an easier monetary policy. all of those things would be very good, are typically good -- >> why not this time? >> because i think it does raise the risk of a potential melt up where valuations get so high

because you're throwing so much stimulus at the economy. you pull forward returns. we saw years like 2018, there was a great backdrop in 2018 of tax cuts that led to strong earnings growth and it ended up being a flattish year only because we started at such high valuations and the fed was pulling back on liquidity a bit simply because of the growth that you were seeing from the earnings. >> what are we supposed to think about the election? the market was obviously, you know, pricing certain trades in. i don't know if that was getting ahead of itself or not. we're not going to know until next week. hopefully we know next week. >> fingers crossed. >> how am i supposed to as an investor think about the potential risk that lies ahead with the election looming? not to mention the fed meeting next week on top of that? >> we've seen the biggest moves in the bond market as well as cryptocurrency markets where there's been the tightest correlation between trump odds

of winning as well as republican sweep and price action in those areas. it raises the question of the lesson from 2016 which was essentially sell the rumor buy the news after the election. you saw a big jump in yields in 2016 for the two months following the election and then they kind of drifted down. so maybe we're seeing some of that pull forward today. we do have to consider the wild cards of the election results into 2025 where we could have things like higher corporate taxes on one side and then on the other side potential supply chain disruptions from things like immigration as well as tariffs and trade. so both of these things could potentially be market jarring even if the underlying economy is still holding up. >> so we talked a lot about megacap. we're going to obviously have apple and amazon after the bell tonight. there's been a good debate, too, about other areas of the market to be in that forget small cap because it's just too many -- too much noise around small caps. yields remain elevated, maybe that trade doesn't work.

midcap's getting a lot of love. what do you think about that part of the market? >> certainly. we've been preferring midcaps over small caps because they typically have better balance sheets. not as sensitive to interest rates. what we are seeing is that you have a lower base for earnings growth going into 2025 that allows you to jump over that. we think you have to be highly, highly selective, though. we use the phrase quality because it really allows us to find those names that are much more stable through cycles. have reasonable valuations. so it's not just buy all midcaps, it's buy selected midcaps. >> how much do tonight's earnings matter for the mid term? we are talking about the most valuable company in the market. it was teetering flipping back and forth with nvidia. apple still has great importance to this market. does it still have as much as it used to? we used to talk about it, as apple goes, so goes the stock market. now i don't think we need to do that anymore, but you tell me. >> maybe the read through is the connection of apple's valuation

and the overall market's valuation and how much this market is willing to pay up for growth. apple's trading at about 30.5 times forward earnings which is near its 2021 peak. that would say to us that that's a pretty high bar that they have to deliver. apple's earnings have never been that extraordinary in the last two years. i think the earnings growth is close to about 9% this year. so it really comes down to the valuation and if the results are not received well, maybe there's a read through to how well this market will tolerate today's broader high valuations. >> you stay with me because now we're going to talk more about amazon. it is obviously one of the big reports that we are watching for in overtime. kate rooney is watching that and will tell us what we need to focus on most of all. kate? >> reporter: scott, the setup is important to talk about here as well for amazon. expectations have come down since the last quarter. the list of worries around the stock has weighed on sentiment. amazon has under performed most of the mag 7 at least in the past six months or so.

in the second quarter, last report amazon did see some margin compression. something people are watching closely. they warned about consumer spending pressure. the ad business also didn't quite wow wall street the wear people had expected. they did have prime day which could lift sales. we'll see. there's high hopes for amazon. aws especially after google cloud, ai will be a big part of that story. aws growth is going to be the key number to watch and to beat. street is expecting that high margin cloud business to deliver 19% revenue growth for the quarter. the big number to beat, analysts will be watching for any sort of commentary on retail for this quarter. the consumer and capex. the ai is a balance here and then guidance after microsoft disappointed on the guide. bank of merge summed it up. it's a balance of aws on tow mission versus retail optimism uncertainty, scott. >> it looks like, kate, aws

growth after flattening out after a few quarters, looks like it's reaccelerating albeit slightly. that's key. >> yes. absolutely, scott. so they did sort of flatten out i guess last year you could say. that's been a big part of the bull case. the margin expansion. the growth on aws, the high margin really profit engine of this business. that's why it's a big tech company. we think of it as retail, too. one balancing act that they're going to have to do is show that the core business, the retail side is also doing well in order to spend big, go after some of those moon shot projects. really i would say the take away is balance. they have to nail it on margins, north america, show that the business is doing well. they did see margin expansion on the retail side of the business. after covid margins were negative. they turned be that around. huge part of the bull case. you have two sides of the story, retail and tech with aws but, again, that 19% growth number is really what folks are looking for on aws.

i would say that is the number one thing to watch today. >> okay. good setup. we'll see a lot of you this evening. we look forward to this report. kate rooney, thank you very much for that. let's bring in our panel. both cnbc contributors. malcolm, you're the one that owns amazon here. the what are you thinking about ahead of this report? partly because of the margins that they can extrapolate. what i've seen, 90 to 95%

margins on ads being created using ai instead of human actors and models. >> are you thinking about what the spend be is, capex are just enormous for all of these companies, malcolm. >> i heard that point. i heard what cameron was saying. investors are focusing on valuations and multiples. it's unlikely for me to be the skeptic, but i find it a little bit strange that now is when investors are deciding that they don't want to own shares of meta and microsoft specifically. they're selling those names off because of not liking what they hear in the earnings reports when we knew last month and last week that these companies were redoubling their efforts capex wise building ai into all of the products that they're rolling out. so i just think it's a little bit more likely that investorsi when they knew the numbers would meet expectations. to borrow a phrase from liz young that i love to use, come november 6th we might see the

same traders putting the money back where it came from. >> bryn, what do you make in the microsofts and the metas. do that for me before i ask you about apple which you own. >> if i broaden out to the year, meta is up 60% for the year. down 5 to me is not that big of a deal. i think meta is going to be able to monetize. they're doing so much on ai. their report was really strong. yes, their capex was up, what, 87% year over year. they're on par with google. if you go on instagram it's impossible not to buy something. so i think they're going to continue to benefit from that. i think microsoft as a juxtaposition is only up 9%. my energy names are doing better than microsoft. i listened to their earnings call twice. their revenues they beat by a billion dollars. they crushed earnings. co-pilot, which i was concerned about, they announced voda phone, ubs. big enterprise companies. so i think that ultimately amy hood, who is the cfo, she is

conservative in her guidance very consistently. i think she was conservative again. i think you're going to continue to see a dispersion of returns within these five or six names that we talk about because year to date, this has been all about meta and nvidia, not about the microsoft, googles, apples or amazons which really have been market underperformers this year, but i still do not think this is the beginning of the end. i think these companies will continue to monetize and data plays for me are still a great spot to me. >> bryn makes a good point. it's no longer the monolith, right? these are going to be differentiated by how fast they're growing revenues for cloud players, who's differentiating themselves for growing cloud business. ai for consumer versus ai for business and you place your bets accordingly. >> you look at the different breakdowns for mag 7.

you have nvidia and amazon have huge decelerations in earnings growth. it's a question of how the market will be able to digest that. amazon goes from over 100% this year to 1% next year. nvidia goes 140 to 40% next year. >> if you look at the likes of google, microsoft, apple, they have stable growth year over year. tesla is a big swing factor of the last mag 7 where they have a big acceleration baked in. it's going to be very interesting how the market deals with this second derivative deceleration. is that something that will weigh on growth even though the absolute growth rates are still likely to be better than the market. >> speaking of growth rates, i guess, malcolm, we're going to be paying super close attention to apple's revenue growth which was anemic, to say the best, for a while. now we need it to, you know, reaccelerate in a meaningful way. there was a time we would say, oh, my gosh, apple is reporting tonight, like the biggest event

of the week. it doesn't feel that way. it feels like we're expecting ho hum, not only for the numbers but for the guide. >> i think we're on our way back there. the quarter that just ended, that's the last mulligan that apple is going to get on the growth rate, especially as it pertains to the iphone. i think the expectations around apple intelligence and the importance of apple intelligence have been played up so big. if apple is not able to prove during the holiday shopping cycle that there is actually demand for the iphone 16 and that those sales reaccelerate, i think they're going to get punished for it in a major way. i think it's really important for all of the other consumer focused ai companies out there that apple show and deliver in this quarter we're in. we haven't seen anybody test the theory that there is demand for ai among consumers. we've seen there's demand among enterprise among microsoft,

google and others. microsoft is the one we can rely on to prove there is legitimate demand and monetize that in a meaningful way. that is going to be important for all of the other consumer facing tech companies that are building ai products now. >> bryn, you own it too. how are you viewing it? i don't judge from your notes that you're all that optimistic for the near term stock? >> i think malcolm and virgil hit the nail on the head about this is going to be over the next couple of quarters really important because outside of covid, apple's revenue growth was anemic on both sides of that. the so i think we want to see not will people upgrade but how long will it take to upgrade. the options market, which has been incredibly accurate, shows amazon plus or minus 12% post the report. apple's only at 3%. so at the end of the day, this plus minus 3 isn't that big of a deal. i'm more interested because there are so many analysts like

this amazing chinese analyst in china saying they're going to be terrible, so i think that's going to flesh out a lot of the opinions that we don't know about. at the end of the day their services are going to grow. everyone has an iphone. it's just how quickly are we going to upgrade? i think that apple will remain a market performer as it has this year. it's going to do what the market does. i do not think it will be an outperformer in the rest of this year or the first half of 2025. >> let's not, cam, either forget about what happens in china, too. there was a lot of optimism and now i feel that's faded. you're talking 17% of overall revenues coming from greater china. how do you think about that? >> it's a big, huge question mark. we've seen other consumer facing companies continue to struggle. maybe there's a little bit of a light at the end of the tunnel. would he had slightly better china pmis today, but certainly in the grand scheme of things it looks like that chinese market is continuing to struggle because a lot of the stimulus is not directed at consumers.

that's what apple cares about most. >> we will see what happens. going to be exciting, as it always is. again, apple and amazon coming up in "overtime" in the next hour. thanks, everybody. bryn, we'll talk to you, malcolm and cameron. to pippa stevens for the biggest names moving into the close. >> reporter: scott, estee lauder is sinking after the beauty company withdrew the full year outlook thanks to uncertainty around when china will turn a corner. the company cut its dividend as its new ceo prepares to take the helm on january 1. the stock is pacing for the worst day on record. booking holdings hitting a record high. growth bookings rose 9% year over year while room nights up 8%. international travel demand offset domestic weakness. scott? >> pippa, thank you. just getting started. up next, goldman's meta blynn is

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we're back, tech trade dragging down stocks. microsoft and meta among the big names that are sliding. apple and amazon, as you know, set to report after the bell. while my next guest expects a more muted performance around the mag 7 earnings, he's still bullish. joining me at post 9 is mina flynn. welcome to our program. >> thank you. >> how are you thick about this group of megacap names which, you know, we're winding down on the earnings. we have nvidia a month from now. what do you think as a group? >> as a group it's hard to think of these names on a

quarter-by-quarter basis. they're undergoing significant transformational change in the ai infrastructure and everything that comes from ai i think is going to play out over multiple years. our clients are really looking at the names from a more longer term perspective. these businesses have significant moats around them. we believe they're going to continue to outperform from an earnings perspective. that earnings may decrease from outperformance. we think the setup is going to outperform. >> how do you think about the market? barring some surprise over the next couple of months, a really good year again. have we borrowed from '25? how does the landscape look to you? >> we're pretty constructive. the reason we're constructive is we have global growth growing at 3% on a real gdp basis and u.s. growth growing at 2.5%. usually the best predictor of forward equity returns is the

economy. 90% of the time when youhave a strong economy you have positive equity returns. take that to the s&p 500 and we anticipate earnings growth next year of roughly 8 to 10%. you couple that with a 2% dividend yield and you're looking at 10 to 12%. >> so we justify where the multiple is of the market? that's the question now. well, are stocks too expensive? as a result, if earnings growth slows, then we are at risk of below average returns for the next couple of years. there's going to be a downturn at some point in the economy, we think. >> yeah. the no, i mean, absolutely. but as we're looking forward, we think growth will continue to be robust. i think it's really important that you put it in the construct of a total portfolio. you think about portfolio construction. the number one thing that we do with our clients is we do actually really think about their risk objectives and help

them implement a portfolio that's going to keep them from selling during periods of market volatility while also outperform inflation. so our client's portfolios are comprised of a balance of income, equities and alternatives. we seek to implement that for them and take advantage of volatility. >> when you come to we're talking about clients of goldman's private wealth, obviously we're talking much beyond the 60/40 portfolio. clearly for high net worth investors the construction is going to be far different. i don't know, you know, what you think about to what degree you should have alternatives as part of your portfolio. i've heard 50, 30, 20 private equity, private credit. it doesn't seem from what we hear that the money flee into alternatives is slowing down any time soon. >> no, nor do we think it should. we recommend on average roughly about a 25% allocation but key do have clients that are on a

higher allocation. it goes down to one's risk preference. really, if you look at big picture why are we constructive on alternatives, there's three reasons. the first one is given they don't mark to market on a daily basis, they put the emotional side of investing to the side. the second thing is that the investable universe in the private space is larger than it is in the public space so if you look over the last 25 years, the number of companies that are public has gone down but the number of private equity private backed companies has increased six fold. additionally, given the amount of money that is coming into private markets, they're able to stay private longer and have a tremendous amount of value creation before they go public. that being said, we recommend that we've led into alternatives for cliengts. while i've said 25%, we get there over a 5 to 6-year time period so our clients aren't geared towards anyone vintage. >> as more money goes into things like private credit.

it only increases the duration that a company would, you know, remain private for longer because they just don't need to tap the public market for liquidity. >> yeah. the no, absolutely. the private credit, we do see that market is going to continue to expand and if you look at first lien senior secured loans right now, they are yielding 10% plus on an unlevered basis. very attractive for investors. there's also much more beyond first lien senior secured loans in private credit. you have things like nontraded investment and asset-backed investments that our clients are able to take advantage of. toggle the risk/reward. companies are able to use this to be able to help their capital structure and go public when it makes sense for them. >> the movement in interest rates obviously impacts the kind of return you would get in something like private credit. how are you gaming out what you think the fed is going to do and

have you reset your own expectations as a result of what's happening in the market? >> i think you've seen yields lining out by roughly 40, 50 basis points since the last fed cut. i don't think that's actually because investors are concerned about anything other than actually we've had a stronger economy and the fed may actually cut less. so we still are expecting 25 basis points next week and 200 basis points through the cycle, but the fed has some room. i think the bigger question is when you think about interest rates, is at what point do investors start talking about the fiscal deficit. so we've got, you know, a debt to gdp right now of almost 100%. you have fiscal deficit running 6 to 7%. you couple that with strong growth and unemployment rate of 4%. that's something we don't think we're near that tipping point but we do think that investors are looking for that to be addressed. >> i think investors are talking

about it and concerned about it but can't do anything about it. you need something to happen in washington to deal with the deficit. we'll see how it all comes together after the election. nice to see you, welcome to our show. >> thank you. up next, we're getting you set up for intel results in "overtime." stacy rasgon standing by with key metrics you need to know. we're back after the break on "the bell."

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chip stock this year with shares losing more than half their value. does this underperformance lower the bar? let's ask stacy rasgon of bernstein. good to see you. >> good to be here. >> look at your note and i think you sum up what every intel investor's thinking about. quote, we don't really know what to do with intel stock these days. i guess that kind of says it all. why are you flum memexed by thi name? >> i've been negative on the stock. we're still negatively biased. that being said, i'm kind of afraid. it's hard to run out and short it when you are getting headlines like so and so is going to buy it like every other day. it was up 30% on some of the acquisition rumors. to be fair, i find like a little implausible. at the same time though, it didn't seem long either. we got issues in the pc market.

>> no ai story to speak of to help make up the difference. now i'm starting to get more and more worried about the trajectory for gross margins. they've been suggesting as they ramp some of their new products, they have outsourced content which hurts the margins, they've been suggesting that may be an incremental headwind. you couple that with everything else around the process roadmap, burning cash and everything else. it doesn't feel like a good situation to be in. i mean, clearly they're in a tough spot. >> the stock reacted terribly to the report last quarter. maybe that lowers the bar going into tonight? what do you think about that? >> to be fair, it feels like it collapsed a lot. it's actually up pretty decently in the last month or so again on some of these other news stories

that had been coming out around potential m&a and everything else. i don't know. it's hard for this one for me to suggest that expectations are low. i feel like they're higher than they were. and to be fair, i mean, even if expectations are low, they could very easily come in below. i'm very interested to hear, by the way, not just their commentary but any incremental commentary they can give us. i'm getting more and more worried. the numbers are getting low as they come into 2025. particularly without the ai ramped up. anything they can give us on next year would be helpful to lower those expectations further. there's always room for them to go lower with these guys. >> pat gelsinger is coming up in "overtime." >> tell him hi. >> i know you're going to waf

that -- watch that. what would you tell him he should do? >> yeah. this the real issue. we can argue the strategy, was it the right thing or the wrong thing? that's a longer discussion. the problem is they didn't put the cost structure into shape like when he got there and everything else. really the problem is the core business assumption is they were basing on -- to bridge them to get the strategy to work. the core business doesn't support the path. it's not generating cash to speak of. but it may be too far along to stop, right? i mean, that's really, really the issue. i don't know that they -- i don't know if it's politically viable given the chips act subsidies and everything else. the core business in terms of pc traj trajectory, ai, there's not enough oomph there. i don't know the right solution

is to stop either. you'd pretty much have to stop everything that they've done. everybody talks about a potential split. i don't think that's viable. the foundry can't stand on its own. i think in a hypothetical situation the solution will be to scrap it, but i don't think they can do that for political and other reasons. they're in a tough spot. i don't know what it is that he ought to be doing beyond just like cutting costs a lot more. they may have to. we'll see what happens. hopefully like bridge enough of a path to get to where they're trying to go, to get the new processes out. hopefully those processes are successful and try to build the business. they gave some targets for like 2030 that if you wanted to believe painted a picture but, i mean, there's a ton of wood to chop between now and then. no way to judge it externally either. they're in a tough spot. >> lastly you suggest that even if a turn around's successful,

it could take a decade. >> i mean, it took ten years to break it. it was always going to take ten years to fix it. i don't think that was ever in doubt. i think the trough they're going through is clearly a lot bigger than they thought it was going to be. you can go back to 2022 and look at the expectations. they were ludicrous. that would be another point of advice and give it to you in hindsight. if gelsinger is starting another ceo job, start with low expectations, not high expectations. i don't know who comes into a turn around and sets expectations like he did when he got there. now it's too late. >> well, i think you've given fo fort some things to chew on before we have the interview in ot. i'm sure he's watching, too. i'll remind you, don't miss that

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let's get back to pippa stevens with the stock she is watching. >> reporter: scott, carvana is surging on the back of better than expected q3 results. they raised the 2024 earnings guidance saying it would be, quote, significantly above the high end of its prior target. wells fargo saying the company is driving in a lane of its own. roblox is tracking more than a year after reporting a smaller than expected loss and raising the full yearbooking's forecast. it comes after hindenburg research accused the company of inflating metrics. for more be sure to catch roblox ceo david baszucki tomorrow. still ahead, much more on what to expect from amazon's earnings overnight. plus we count you down to apple's results as well. we'll run you through what's at stake. there's the countdown. 44 minutes and 20 seconds until

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coming up next, we're breaking down what to watch for breaking down all the big names. apple, amazon. you know about intel as well.

the "market zone" is next.

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from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley mike santoli here. peloton hitting the highest level in more than a year. brandon gomez has those numbers. amazon reporting in overtime. mark mahaney joins us to report what he expects. mike, i'll send it to you. obvious down day. megacap tech is down weight. >> it is. >> meta, microsoft, uber in the mix, too.

the. >> it's all i think the pressure from the megacaps, but also it's a pretty persistent but orderly risk reduction going on across the markets. stocks down, bonds down, makes sense to pull the market towards neutral wherever it was overextended ahead of the jobs report, ahead of the election. it's not really panic. it's not a washout. the average stock's doing better than the indexes because of microsoft and meta dragging on the s&p 500. maybe it's a little bit of this pent up we thought we were going to get some volatility and we have it until now. i was talking earlier, it looks like a pretty normal pull back in the indexes to the 50-day average or thereabouts. nothing alarming. it shows you that we didn't see enough to get incrementally excited from the earnings this week. >> they're excited about peloton today, that's for sure. highest level than more than a year. brandon gomez is here to tell us what's going on. >> shares on a tear.

back to generating free cash flow. still a beat on the top and bottom line. company remains focused on profitability. karen boone saying we've been very sure that we're not going to chase unprofitable ssub growth and we've been much more disciplined with growth. announcing a new ceo, peter stern. currently at ford where he oversees the subscription services. one ubs analyst calling him a, quote, hardware/software industry insider. shares up 170%, a little more than that since former ceo's departure back in may. worth pointing out all of this clearly overshadowing that peloton also expects to lose more members, sell less bikes and treads in the holiday quarters which you would think would send shares lower. today investors waiting to hear more from the incoming ceo.

>> brandon gomez, thank you very much for that. let's pivot to mark mahaney. he calls it his top large cap long over 12 months. why do you do that? >> well, i think aws growth is likely to continue to accelerate for a while. i think you're going to have this mixed shift towards faster growth. higher margin advertising in aws businesses so that's good for margins overall. i think the retail business can show expanding margins if you are willing to adjust for kuiper, the satellite communications investment program that the company has. they'll give you a little bit more disclosure on that. the who knows, maybe we'll get more surprise because the last of the megacap techs are doing more with their cash. love to see them initiate share buy back. they have the ability to do that. >> how much of an outlier idea do you think that is? do you think there's a reasonable chance they do that? >> i think it's not a probability not greater than 50%

chance. cash balance now is at 100 billion. it will be over 100 billion next year. that's the level at which google is starting to buy back stock. google sat on the cushion. that's the level. doing it when they had 60 billion. the cash needs of these companies are very different but, still, you're talking about cash levels that at some point are clearly excessive to amazon. yeah, i don't think there's anything structurally wrong with them doing. i don't think they're opposed to them doing some capital return like that. i think it's a reasonable possibility in the next year. >> speaking of meta, are you surprised at all by the reaction today? >> no. this was a high bar stock. you needed to do a clean beat and raise quarter. they didn't blow away the numbers in terms of the ad revenue in the quarter. i think fundamentals were fine. profitability was extremely impressive. for the stock to have kept going up, being up 60% on the year, you needed a clean beat and

raise and you didn't get it. >> would you buy this dip in uber? you cover that too. >> yes. this is like the dodgers at the top of the fifth inning. ub b uber, i think they're going to be an av winner. i think there's a little bit of concern over the deceleration in mobility. there are some temporary issues. this comes close to being a dhq stock, dislocated high quality stock. i like uber. >> we'll have to see who will commit the error to let the ubers back in. >> tesla, doordash, someone like that. >> mark, thank you. mark mahaney. we'll see what amazon does along with apple. that's what we're highly anticipating. >> pretty big moves anticipated in m the individual stocks. it's worth a reminder that sometimes the whole group gets swayed this way and that. we had a positive follow through for alphabet and negative for meta and microsoft. we'll see amazon and apple.

you can look at the market as we have elevated valuation and investors are allowing fundamentals to grow into it. not to say that it's too expensive or that the consensus expectation of a november and december ramp in the market is ill founded, but, you know, when people are expecting it in general, you have to maybe assume it's not going to be the smoothest ride. that's why, you know, jobs report tomorrow. probably have some two-way risk. every economic number surprising to the up side. i do think the bond market has been a little braced for that possibility even as some folks feel like we can have zero because of all of the storm impacts. >> 10-year is 428. yields elevated. >> they are. you can hit 432 or something. >> yes, you did. it's definitely been sticky in that area which is the borderline of where in the past if you go back several months, 430 was that level that seemed to give the equity market

indigestion when it looked like you had momentum in yields. >> we're a little sick to our stomachs today, speaking of indigestion, because of these results and the drag on the averages by meta, microsoft. red across the board but we're ready. amazon, apple coming in with jon fortt. that bell marks the end of regulation. cineverse ringing the bell. gigi's play house doing the honors. tech getting wrecked. down 3% to close out october ahead of a monster hour of earnings ahead. that is the scorecard on wall street. winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell" overtime. i'm jon fortt. morgan brennan is off today. companies with a combined market cap of nearly $5.5 trillion are about to report esults. first, we'll get