>> sticking with uber. >> okay, bryn? >> mine is uber, too market gets it wrong all the time >> whoa, okay. farmer jim >> hit the easy button, buy nvidia >> laugh track >> i don't know what to say. meta platforms, stay with it >> "the exchange" begins right now. ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much, scott. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans, and here's what's ahead a head-scratching morning with stocks higher, yields elevated, despite the weaker jobs report but it's the weakness increase the odds of a fed rate cut and if not, is this rally sustainable? our market guests are concerned, watching one key level in particular, and we just hit it we'll give you all the details the read on retail b.a. davidson did an earnings deep dive on suppliers and

competitors. their biggest takeaways and the bottom line on the consumer is coming up heading into the holiday season speaking of earnings, there was some clear winners and losers and some surprises. we have a special three buys and a bail coming your way this is the bail, our mystery chart. it's been harder to guess since we took off the numbers. t but first, let's start with these markets, which just keep rising above, dom chu. >> they are. she's referring to the pin i have, vintage cnbc election season style if you look at the dow industrials, the s&p 500 and the nasdaq composite, we're green across the board here for the major indexes, and this was a week where the nasdaq composite actually hit a record high we have given a lot of that back the dow up about 1%. the s&p 500 is at 5746, up 41 points so far today, a three quarters of 1% gain. even at the lows of the session,

we were bouncing back from yesterday's selloff, up about 18 points at the lows, up about 67 points a t the highs of the session. so, again, tilting towards the higher end of the range. the nasdaq outperforming, up full1% 18,283 for the composite index to put some context around the interest rates that kelly just referred to, on the rise, we do see the ten-year note yield sticking higher to 4.34% remember, at the cycle lows, just in the last couple of months, that ten-year note yield was closer to 3.6% so we're almost, again, three quarters of a percent higher for that ten-year note yield and to put percentages on the losses that we have seen in that treasury part of the equation, the long-term bond market for treasuries have declined by roughly 10% in value that equates to that nearly three quarter percent move upside in terms of yield on the ten-year and then a banner week for the magnificent seven stocks

five in particular, and i'll show them to you in just the order of the magnitude of the positivity and negativity. amazon, positive earnings result alphabet also, google, up 4% on the week meta platforms, some concerns about cap ex on that front but take a look at the two losers this week, two of the biggest companies out there, microsoft and apple. each of those down roughly 3% to 4% when we talk about the magnificent seven or mega cap tech trade, for the time being it is evolving into a have, have not scenario, and a lot is contingent on investor sentiment about prospects for ai >> great point, dom. thank you very much. now only 12,000 jobs were added during october, according to stats this morning. that was well below the 100,000 expected and a huge slowdown from the prior trend we also goat downward revisions for august and september the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%

my next guess says the report is inconsequential to the fed decision next week a cut was already in the cards joining us now is diana slonk and steve liesman. welcome to you both. diane, that was the question i was going to ask, do we take this report at face value or ignore it completely >> well, we don't take it at face value obviously, it was a perfect storm, storms and strikes. we saw all of those effects in this number. it was the most disruptive storms we have had in some ways since hurricane katrina in 2005, which sup presidented payrolls for two months after it hit. so that's not all that surp surprising we saw the unemployment rate stay down at 4.1%. we moved out of the sahm rule, that's good news

reduction and participation rate was driven by a reduction in women's prime age participation, and a lot of schools were closed as a result of those storms, helene and milton, and they remain closed. some are still closed today. that's very disruptive, especially to women's participation rate in the labor market >> so if i -- there's a couple of simultaneous, we have the election tuesday, so is this a weak jobs report or not or do we not know and this isn't just about the election, and there's the fed decision coming, even in the in box, i have half of the box telling me, no matter the headline, we're on a weakening trend. the other half is telling me average hourly earnings is accelerating, so i'm genuinely confused >> it means you're talking to the right number of people go ahead, diane, sorry >> oh, no, i mean, you know, i look at it, we've been expecting the job market had been slowing. the september number downward

revision still a strong number the august number, always a funky number we're looking at the numbers and saying listen, unemployment has come down, that's good news. we think unemployment around 4.2 is still close to full employment that's a soft landing for the fed. after 2.8% growth over the summer on the heels of an acceleration in consumer spending, this is not an economy on the verge of an end and i think that's very important. the fact that we moved out of the sahm rule during the month, it's just good news that we know claudia herself has argued that rules are meant to be broken, including the sahm rule, and it's not a koins den coincident indicator. the job losses, amusement parks, casinos, things that were --

>> diane, i've been having some fun with other people's misery is the guess way to put it looking at the weather effects and diving deep, i want to show you a couple screens here. i don't know if you can see them, but why the temporary health decline by 50,000 i went back and looked at previous storms. and here's a list of some storms with a spike in the number of people who were absent due to weather, and the change in temporary health it looks better on a graph january '96, 1.8 million weather absences so what happens, i think, don't come into my store you say that you're temporary, because i don't have any customers, i'll call you back. the call you back is interesting, because it gets at some of your question, which is, is this permanent? take a look. we got some exclusive data that looked at employment in florida week by week take a look at the bar chart

here you see that what happens the week before the storm, you had normal level of what is that, 260,000, i can't see it. it dips down by about 17,000 and then it comes back now, it just so happened that the dip is right in the survey so now let's go to look at the manufacturing, what we saw is a 46,000 dip there all of this is my way of saying, i think this might be a goldilocks number. let me explain why >> as much as we can dive deeper into this, it's not the only economic report we got this morning. you just mentioned manufacturing. here's the strange thing, ism remains terrible i think it fell another point last month, and yet for two years we've been in this manufacturing recession, that seems to not be spilling over into a consumer recession as it normally does, so that leading indicator has been bunked. >> i'm going to let to diana respond to me on this, but it is hard to part with old friends. ism manufacturing was an old

friend in terms of -- not diane, me and ism manufacturing when i had my employment index, which by the way doesn't work anymore after the pandemic ism manufacturing, employment was a big part of it it has separated from telling me what's going on in the economy, i don't know why but if you read the comments and the report this morning, you hear a lot about election uncertainty. >> fair point. >> and things look better on the other side so i can't take big signal from ism and manufacturing, but i don't think you're wrong to bring it up. >> diane, this is something peter mentioned last time, he said manufacturing in terms of the production industrial index is lower now than it was in 2017 so there's a -- ever since the tariffs hit during the first trump administration, we never seen activity rebound in a meaningful way so it's unclear what it means. it is clear that it means that whole sector is more abundant,

so we look to you for a signal amidst the noise >> well, certainly on the manufacturing side, we also though that the boeing strike exacerbated the weakness in manufacturing activity but motor vehicle manufacturing has been down for self-months. the silver lining to the horrific storms we saw where a lot of cars were destroyed those will also -- the lots were bloated prior to the storms, so we'll see some of that come back but we are a service sector economy, and although we spend on goods, we spend on goods not just from the united states, we also saw massive spending on goods that came back again a little bit after the original -- >> i just want to pick up on your auto thing. this is a cautionary sign for the federal reserve. another thing going on in autos is the high rate of loans. you've seen those aaa bond rates

paid they've come in. big business paying low rates. small business consumers still paying high rates that will remain if the fed doesn't cut. >> so where do we stand in terms of the odds for a 25 point cut >> they're a little higher we had a reversal on the day the fed funds future chart that we had earlier, if you could call that up we're at 90% or now 98% for a cut in november. we're, i think -- >> there it is >> okay, great >> we're at 99% for a cut. that's higher than i realized. >> 94% for december that's the swing right there. what happens in january, that's where they're building in the pause. >> thank you, both really appreciate it we mentioned that bond yields had been on the move, that's why i find those rate cuts surprising. the ten-year is at 4.3 it was almost 4.35 a little

while ago and both my guests agree these levels are a problem for stock. let's start with president of bianco research. jim, you have a similar take on this rising bond yields, especially in the wake of the jobs report today, tell you what >> i think what they tell us is the fed's making a mistake i think that the market is worried in the face of what has been a very strong economy, and what is the potential of big fiscal stimulus if donald trump wins the election, we don't need rate cuts. and we're going to get lots of them, and chicago fed president austan goolsbee said we could get hundreds of points of cuts and that's too much. and the bond market is sniffing out that there's an inflation problem. expectation of inflation has been rising, and we'll see another rate cut next week, and

the market, i think, is worried that this is not necessary, and that's why you see this adverse reaction of rising yields. >> jim, just a second. i mean, stocks are more or less at all-time highs, so what does that tell you in conjunction with what we're describing >> we don't need rate cuts the stock market went up 17% between july 23 and september 24 when the funds rate was over 5%. it was fine with it. and now that the funds rate has been cut in september, it's gone up even faster the stock market is telling us, these rates are fine and we don't need rate cuts but if you're going to give them to me, we're going to shove stocks even higher that sounds good, i'm not against that, but the consequences could be more inflation. >> let's bring in michael with me onset am i correct about this, you're the number one portfolio strategist according to ii, is that a new thing >> yes >> nice job.

so, mr. numero uno, do you share jim's concern? this discussion remains me of the jamie dimon sugar high comments what do you make of this >> i think -- i agree with what jim said but argue the market doesn't need more cuts we don't know that yet we're still pricing in cuts, so that's a helpful backdrop. i think rates are -- have gone up since the data started getting better around when the fed did their 50 basis point rate cut you see it in the u.s. employment data, which has been significantly better and the global economic surprise index has gone straight up in the last month or so so those data track -- explain bond yields really well, and the short end of the curve has gone up, as well, suggesting that it's not really so much about trump and his odds of winning. six-month yields, one-year

yields, if they go up, the election doesn't have an impact on that. the deficit issues aren't immediate, and what the fed will do in two meetings is not a function of who will be in office >> i think that's a great point. but do you join the torus of those saying -- chorus of those saying -- is it a sure case that they're going to keep cutting rate it is all the economic data is strengthening so much >> at the margin, we have seen better surprises 2.5 months ago, the markets were getting worried about a recession when the market hit 4.3. so from the bottom of the ten-year bond yield, the market has gone straight up, because we -- that narrative of recession risk went away >> like the good kind of rise in the bond yield now it's starting to create a little more angst, and we're seeing that in leadership. commercial real estate is one of the worst sectors since bond yields bottomed. so at the margin, it's not high

enough to become a -- >> does it tell you anything about small caps a better growth trade usually favors small caps, but the high rate piece is supposed to disfavor small caps. >> our view on small caps, we've been bearish on them for almost three years. the simple reason is that their earnings have gone lower for three years straight, and estimates for 2024 and 2025 also are continuing to decline as early -- this earnings season. until that picks up, we want to continue to embrace companies with better earnings revisions, and that will push you up the market cap >> you always do the quality bias here, but here's what's weird. this time the rise in rates, you start thinking about the banking crisis and you start -- you mentioned real estate. we go back to that old playbook, or is this more transitory >> i think rates have to move a good deal higher the difference today from even in mid april when rates were

rising or last year is the fed has cut and they made that clear, so that's certainly a support where yields could move higher and not panic the market. of course, everything the fed has done in the last year or two, and the fiscal government to make sure that problems don't arise somewhat hacking the economy, if you will, i think gives us a lot more confidence >> i appreciate that, tacking the economy is a good phrase jim, how does it end >> i think it ends with the -- with interest rates eventually going too high now, i agree with michael, they're not there and they would have to go substantially higher from here. and i also agree that we are in about the level now where, if rates continue to move higher, it's going to be a problem for the stock market and the reason it's going to be a problem for the stock market is the era -- there is an alternative, the alternative now is high interest rates for a lot of people they're looking at the bond market and bond investments and saying, you

know,ky get most of the stock market gains or expected gains with a lot less risk because in a bad year bonds go down maybe 1%, where stocks can go down 20%. they'll take that. if rates go higher, you'll see money move towards the bond market bond etfs have already had a record yearly inflow, and we still have two months left in the year that would only increase if yields move higher if they do, it becomes competition for the stock market and becomes more of a drag, and if they go high enough, it becomes problematic, but that's a ways off >> do you agree with that, and what is an area where there's a lot of opportunity for alpha that you foresee happening >> for the first question, rates will continue moving higher. global economic surprises to continue to improve into the end of this year and the second point, where do

you want to be positioned? given that credit spreads are so darn tight and the market is not worried about a whole lot, a lot of the lower quality, even small-cap stocks that are up this year, it's all been pe expa expansion. so if there's not much more pe expansion, you want to focus on earnings, pushing you into mid and larger caps. >> interesting is. gentlemen, thanks. appreciate it today. coming up, berkshire hathaway will mark the end of the busiest earnings season tomorrow morning, but one analyst says there's been plenty of scary read throughs. what they're saying about the holiday season and stocks, next. and in the homestretch of the election cycle this morning's job numbers may have muddied the waters a bit. we'll hear about the potential impact it could have ahead "the exchange" is back after this >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc

it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

welcome back halloween may be over, although my kids are still in costume today for various reasons. it's also still scary out there for some retailers out of the 11 names my next guest's firm covers, he points out a majority had softer demands, and when it comes to names like stanley black and decker, consumer trends are looking particularly weak.

let's talk to michael baker, analyst at d.a. davidson michael, great to have you here. we don't want to overlook these trends and kind of be surprised if this weakness in housing and some consumer areas, it affects these stocks so what are you seeing >> right thanks for having me, kelly. we look at a lot of the suppliers and vendors to a lot of retailers that we cover to try to game trends, particularly in front of the holiday season a very mixed picture skewing towards negative, particularly for housing names, like stanley black and decker, really weak. other names like beacon roofing, a little more mixed. but generally, we're probably going to have another quarter of negative transfer sales for the home sellers a lot of the sporting goods names, columbia sportswear, really weak trends for third quarter.

that's not a great read. dick's, we think is taking shares but not great indicators there. so it has us nervous heading into the holiday season. >> on the housing front, it seems like the latest backup in interest rates is snuffing out an area everyone was looking to for nascent signs of a rebound or strength, but it remains -- stanley missed and lowered masco, full-year guidance reduced. beacon roofing missed, dip in residential sales. >> earlier in the fall, we saw mortgage refinancing, things like that, start to spike up that has started to reverse, because as we know, ever since the fed cut rates, the ten-year has gone straight up so we have seen a slowdown so it pushes out probably the time for home depot and lowe's,

i don't think it's going to happen in the third or fourth quarter. maybe the first, but maybe now the second quarter so we do think, you know, the next step is we're going to have positives at some point in 2025 for the home centers after three plus years of negative numbers, just pushed out a little >> if you're looking for some reasons, elsestee lauder is a m, and maybe amazon, as well. what is that telling you about the opportunity for best buy >> a couple of contrarian names. best buy is one we have warmed up to recently first of all, pc spending has gotten better. that bottom at the end of last year is starting to get better we think we're early in a pc product cycle, leading to a

parts cycle next year, and then tvs and appliances so we're very early in that appliance cycle trade. apple is a little mixed. apple, they're america's businesses that business was up 4% year over year, so that's a positive. it did decelerate 6% last quarter, so a mixed picture there. again, we think they're trending back towards positive. it's a cheap stock, so we think that's worth looking into. ulta, they're going to come negative on this quarter but no worse negative than last quarter. in fact, we know estee lauder missed, but it was all in china. the organic decline there was down 1%. it was down 5% the previous quarter. now it's getting a little better some of that is zorn amazon rel

but the trends are getting worse for ulta >> i appreciate the treat and the trick there. michael, thank you very much for your time today. >> thank you for having me still to come and sticking with earnings, we're closing out a mixed week for the mag seven amazon and alphabet are the only ones in the green, tesla down 7% after the break, we'll get a look at the ai returns at the likes of amazon, alphabet, and croft. "the exchange" is back after this ♪♪

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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update israeli military hit a southern suburb of beirut overnight, destroying buildings in several neighborhoods. there you see the video, according to lebanon's state-run national news agency lebanese officials did not share casualty numbers there the strikes. the israeli military says the attacks hit hezbollah weapons manufacturing sites and command centers. wendy's will close 140 of its underperforming locations, saying it will open a similar number of new locations where it believes it will bring in more customers. they have about 6,000 stores and

building up to 300 new ones with an updated look. this year's world series had the best ratings in seven years. the five-game series averaged more than 15 million viewers its best performance since 2017, when houston defeated the dodgers in seven games the dodgers clinched the series with a 7-6 win on wednesday. los angeles will host a victory parade for the dodgers which kicks off in about 30 minutes. i think the ratings were even higher in japan than they were here in the united states. 17.5 million households there, mostly to watch shohei ohtani. >> i wish he could have done more for them, but he got them there. the results from the cloud giants, amazon, microsoft and google are giving hints on how much their ai investments are returning. they might also show the cloud leadership has shaken up deidre bosa has more in "tech

check. >> hey, kelly. so no question, ai is the next catalyst for growth in all the hyperscalers, whether it can offset higher spending is very much unsettled a few years into this major shift, we can see how it's changing the cloud landscape annual revenue growth was sliding for all three of them. but generative ai was just ramping up microsoft had the early lead and began growing faster than amazon and google that reversed last quarter google cloud has grown 35%, that was a big surprise it's the only hyperscaler that owns a foundational model that are powering its ai offering and has the cloud infrastructure for customers to access that so in that way, in a way that microsoft and amazon really can't, google can leapn on its own expertise.

microsoft has stall. its openai association looked more like a burden, a $1.5 billion hit thanks to openai's expected loss. remember too the part of microsoft's investment in openai was in the form of discounted cloud credits, potentially leading to lower short term income versus standard market rates. and now the ceo saying that cloud is facing capacity constraints. solving that means more cap ex, which will weigh on those ai returns. finally, amazon's aws, the orange line. subject to a law of large numbers, but its ai strategy seen as lagging that of microsoft and google as you can see, it's topline growth flat over the past few quarters, suggesting, kelly, that it might have more to do to really position aws as a winner in the age of gen ai but a new race is off between

these hyperscalers >> we didn't talk about meta a lot, but it seems on that front as though they might have to say more about hey, this is how our investment is paying off in our optimizing ad load, something that simple and, you know, lucrative, whereas i think investors are concerned that it might be more about hey, down the road, you know, this might work out >> yeah. meta is so interesting, it's for its own core business. so it has to show up in other places, whereas the hyperscalers will show up first in the cloud units. that's true. deidre, thanks appreciate it. deidre bosa for "tech check. still to come, this morning's late jobs numbers and downward revisions could cast a shadow over next week's election and immigration reform continues to be the hot button of the election cycle and businesses in arizona are

feeling the heat emily wilkins is in phoenix with a closer look at that state of play emily? >> reporter: i talked to businesses down here who say it's a combination of labor short an and looking at a key ballot measure that could have a f imctpa more when "the exchange" returns. this is clem. clem's not a morning person. or a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button.

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welcome back to "the exchange." with the election just now four days away, it didn't take long for the jobs report to get political. the trump campaign releasing a statement saying vice president harris is responsible for the disappointing numbers, writing it's a harbinger of things to come if elected. the harris campaign not weighing in on the report, but the chairman of biden's council of economic advisers acknowledged negative impacts and touted the strength of the economy on cnbc earlier today. joining us for more on what this could mean for more candidates are my guests. great to have you both here. >> thank you >> mayor, over to you.

how significant is this? i almost wonder if it's just -- not too little too late, but do you think it's impactful >> look, hooer's the thing of course people will try to spin it. but as i say all the time, one month of the jobs report doesn't tell the story the more important comparison now is the biden/harris job creation number of 16 million over their 3.5 years in office versus the negative loss on trump's four years of 2.7 million jobs i think that's material, and i think it's also material, and i want to double and triple check it, and that is six of the seven highest growth and best economy presidents have been democrats so i think what people should do is not look at one month but look at the totality of the record when it comes to job creation and now they can compare biden/harris to trump's four years, and they can compare the

harris plan, which i think is about building a stronger middle and working class versus a trump approach, which is more of the same top down economics, which never ever yields the type of growth and job market we want. >> this should be a celebratory moment for the current administration were it not for inflation. as we read that, you know, people are still trading down to chicken, expectations are s stubbornly high. it's one of the top concerns >> no question this is really about how people feel about the economy, and it's very, very difficult to tell people to feel differently the reality is that for many americans, this economy is still not performing where they want it to. and it is fundamentally about cost of living issues, it is fundamentally about too many americans working multiple jobs to make ends meet, and i think that's the reason why. when you look at survey research, one thing that is

abundantly clear is that voters do tend to trust donald trump more on economic issues. now, whether that's a fair assessment or not, that is where voters are so this jobs report today reinforces a point of view about who is better equipped to handle the economy, and it is the case, i think, for most voters this is already baked into the cake. their views of the economy and who's doing a better job, their views of who's got stronger economic policies, those are largely baked. i think the question now is for that small slither of undecided voters in places like pennsylvania, wisconsin and michigan, where candidates are spending a lot of time this weekend, does this last jobs report sort of put the icing on the cake in terms of their view of who they're going to vote for? we're not going to know until election day we're talking about an exceedingly low number of voters who haven't made up their mind yet. >> how would you respond, mr. mayor? >> i acknowledge that this economy can get better, but

donald trump left behind a recession. he fiddled and fadled when the economy began to go south with covid, instead of responding immediately, he pretended it wasn't a problem he told people to put bleach in their bodies it's important to understand context. this has been the fastest response, the fastest post economic downturn growth, the fastest recovery that we have had post a recession in modern american history i think context is what's key. not one month of numbers, not spin, doctoring, but really looking at the totality of the record, compare the biden/harris record and compare the harris plan with both the trump record and the trump concept about the economy. and i think we're encouraging last-minute voters to make that intelligent comparison, step away and look at the facts, look at the data, and understand the

economy can and will get better if the harris plan is adopted and if the harris initiatives do, in fact, come to pass. >> i would add, a lot of people feel and our market guest used this analysis, it feels like there's stimulus spending for this, and the fed is going to support this it feels to me people like there's going to be a bill coming due, and they wonder what exactly that bill will look like and when >> it's going to be a massive bill coming due soon, and neither candidate is interested in paying the bill you look at the amount of deficit spending in the harris and trump economic plans, it should be concerning to every american the fact that we are not having a conversation about reform of social security and medicaid, so there's just no question that the approach of government over the last couple of years, must be and democrat alike, has been to try and fiddle and tinker and

figure out ways of using the large federal government to solve economic problems, when i think that's entirely the strong approach this election doesn't provide a contrast in that regard. we'll have to see whether anybody decides if they want to address the fundamental challenges >>those are not fun to address >> i don't think cutting medicare and medicaid is the solution to the deficit or social security. the solution is a fairer tax code, one that eliminates loopholes for those that don't need it, creates a minimum tax so that no one can get away with paying nothing we can fix a lot of our, if you will, revenue issues if we had a fair, more stable tax code >> yeah. >> i think that has to always be on the table >> great so my taxes are going up, or stuff is going away. it will be a very different discussion after tuesday than it is right now gentlemen, thank you appreciate your time let's drill down on another

important factor in the jobs report and the election, which is immigration emily will kikins is in phoenix >> reporter: hey, kelly. business community here in arizona are looking for solutions, as they struggle with workforce shortages in industries like construction, hospitality and agriculture. the president and ceo of the arizona hispanic chamber of commerce said the state has nearly 200,000 untilled jobs at this point >> we have several members that are in the construction industry that aren't able to find workers to complete projects and when they can't complete projects, that means there's a lack of housing. >> reporter: one concern is a ballot measure if passed, it would allow local police to detain and deport those in the country illegally a similar 2010 law led to racial

profiling, and companies boycotted the state, costing the state millions immigration is also a major issue in the competitive senate race between democratic congressman ruben gullego and kari lake. he told nbc what was needed is more border patrol agents, but giving deportation powers to police is dragging us backwards to a horrible time lake initially cheered the measure. she told nbc in june that arizonans are crying out for common sense security measures, but when i asked lake about prop 314 yesterday, she dodged the question multiple times. >> do you oppose 314, do you support 314? >> i'm allowing the arizonaen people -- >> do you specifically >> it doesn't matter where i stand. >> it does matter, though. >> i have won vote, but the

people of arizona will vote on these propositions, so they will choose you they vote and i respect what they vote for >> reporter: currently, most polls show him with a slight lead in the race, but guys, it is expected to be close, and certainly one to watch on tuesday. >> so emily, just to be clear, prop 314 would make it a state crime for non-citizens to enter the state directly from a foreign nation other than the official ports of entry? >> reporter: yes the concern here is that there's going to be a lot of racial profiling, and it goes back to another law, the 2010 one, and that led to a lot of companies boycotting arizona they said it was just too toxic of a policy. they didn't want to be supporting it. again, it's a lot of the push and pull in the woke corporation mindset here i've had business owners tell me that they are concerned that if this goes into effect, they'll see something similar. of course, remember this is the senate race and the senate did come out with a bipartisan bill late last year in 2023, and that

would have also expanded worker permits for a lot of these immigrants however, that bill was not able to move through the senate it will be interesting to see, though, if we have another bipartisan congress if that might be something folks try and take up. >> i'm curious, this data is about a month or two old it says the border -- that border measure is supported by 63% in polls, that it could still have broad support, is that right >> reporter: you know, i think in a state like arizona, where you do have a lot of republicans and democrats, you could certainly see support like that. the key asterisk to that, it is going to depend on not just whether voters vote to support it but a pending work case in texas where similar legislation is tied up in the courts so we'll have to see both things go in that direction for that potential ballot measure to be implemented. >> emily, thank you so much. cnbc will be live all night this tuesday with the results as they come in state by state.

plus, reaction from some of the biggest names in business. it all starts 7:00 p.m. eastern at the new york stock exchange, continuing through the night and "squawkbox" will begin an hour earlier at 50 m.as:0a. etern time back after this. it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds]

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♪ ♪ we can bam, we have the good, the bad and the ugly here for three buys and a bail is gina sanchez. let's kick things off with microsoft. that's a buy for you despite the disappointing sell-off why? >> they are making infrastructure investments and increasing their ai capacity, and their cloud capacity, which is their big play. even though it's a hit right now, they're definitely going to benefit from it, we know they like to guide down. >> all right so you think they're setting up

for a better stretch trailing this year, so they have some group to make up here lilly, kind of a similar one so why would you pick this one up as well. this is on the capacity constraint their blockbuster drug was in shortage, so that's -- and you're seeing lilly step up and resolve those issues of shipping to whole sailers they're saying that's going to resolve that issue, but they have massive markets there's still a lot in front of lilly. just last buy is my favorite it is peloton. the shares are up 30% this week. granted they had the much stronger than expected earnings, but they might be coming to costco, but i would buy the costco side of that pair of a trade. >> i used to love to hate

peloton, and one of the reasons is because it was so overvalued, really mired in the manufacturing side of what they did, and had a multiple that didn't make sense. they refocused with mccarthy and now the new announcement with peter stern, that's a focus shift to the app experience. i think they'll back away from the manufacturing side of what they do, and focusing on the subscription sales that does deserve a multiple >> you have an opportunity today, down 14%, your bail is snap they beat earnings, big deal their user base is unlikely to grow, and that was our mystery chart today. >> exactly if the user base is just not growing, it doesn't matter what they do, they're capped. so yay >> a golf clap for that one. gina as always, thank you for joining us that does it for "the exchange."

tyler is getting ready for "power lunch." i'll join him on the other side of this break. ♪♪ mom, can i help? camping was fun, but it looks like

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♪ good afternoon, everybody, welcome to "power lunch. alongside kelly evans, trick-or-treating? the market is shaking off a disappointing jobs report, only 12,000 in october, the