♪ good afternoon, everybody, welcome to "power lunch. alongside kelly evans, trick-or-treating? the market is shaking off a disappointing jobs report, only 12,000 in october, the weakest

since december of 2020 the dow is up more than 300 points that jobs numbers obviously had a lot of sort of soup in it with the strikes at boeing and other things that were at play >> a by storm factor if you say the market is up because there's a -- should there be it's -- let's hope it's a goldilocks >> and basically steady, the participation rate basically steady. >> indeed. amazon is leading the bounce back still up 6% on earnings, operating income was much better than expected. apple shares meantime, ty, they're more of the bellwether, or the barometer apple often sells off after earnings, no exception here, but

obviously apple will be one to watch for the rest of the year we have an exclusive interview with the ceo of roblox the street acted positively to its results, but still a lot of concerns about the company, some made in a hindenburg short-selling report that accused the company of not prioritizing safety for children, and secondly for inflating some of the user metrics. we'll talk about that with the ceo. >> yes, we will. payrolls falling well short of estimates two major hurricanes and that boeing strike are having a big impact, the unemployment rate staying just over 4 percent mike at feroli, great to do you, and what for you is the most important signal to into the from all of the noise. >> you're right, there's a lot of noise the unemployment rate you mentioned, which helps edging up

a bit. that probably isn't as influenced by either the strikes or the hurricanes. i think that part of the number and everything basically related to the household survey is probably more relionel it may have been a touch on the soft side, nothing to get too worried about. i think it probably fits into the goldilocks narrative you alluded to earlier, that in conjunction with what we saw earlier this week with jobs openings and employment costs all suggesting a pretty soft landing, and a labor market that's probably coming into balance, but not cooling in a manner that's worrisome so far overall, again, we'll have a lot of distortions, a lot of squinting you have to do to kind of see, you know, what's really in this number, but we think it's a pretty favorable story. >> you think we're not in danger of the economy slowing down

precipitously? we're not in danger of sees a turn toward layoffs in a mass scale or anything like that? >> i don't think so. we know pretty well, at least 40,000 of that disappointment was through the strikes, if not more there probably was some hurricane effect, but certainly what we're seeing in jobless claims, just yesterday, you know, suggests we're not hitting an air pocket. we don't know if that 12,000 is being held down by 50,000 or 150,000, but almost certainly weaker than the trust out there, in terms of actual job growth. so the indicators would subject that that's, you know, we can kind of said that -- put as asterisk next to that. >> the consensus notion is that the fed will cut interest rates by a quarter point on wednesday.

>> yeah. >> is there anything in this report that would change your view of going along with that consensus? >> no. look, i think before the fed went into their blackout period this week, what they were saying was pretty consistent with a cut next week of 25 basis points -- actually on thursday most of the data we saw this week, again, not only today's report, but also earlier we saw with jobs openings, the employment cost numbers. i think that's all consistent, as they've been pointing out, inflation has come down quite a bit. the labor market is coming into a better balance, perhaps with a smidge of the downside risk to labor markets. so we think it still makes sense back closer to neutral, which is the way the fed has been talking about it, so we had no reason to think what we saw this week should change their opinion in

their regard. >> mike, what do you -- we're fully priced in for a quarter point. jim last hour said it's really unnecessarily, and looking at the stocks at all-time highs do you think they'll keep going a quarter? >> so, i think they'll go a quarter next week. probably another quarter in december i think as we get out into next year, they may step down the pace in part because we would be getting closer to neutral, and probably more uncertainties. we could have more uncertainties in terms of fiscal policy and other things that may cause them to be more cautious. for now, continually to modestly correct policy back toward neutral makes sense. i think in part some of the financial conditions you mentioned are reflecting some of the things the fed is seeing, which is that some of the adverse supply stock which were supplying inflation higher are rye ceding, so it makes sense in

that environment that risky assets would do well and that the fed would be, you know, getting back on sides in terms of policy rates. >> what are you looking forward to in the economy in 2025, no matter who is president, and no matter who controls chronic? >> well, i mean, certainly the jumping-off point in late '24 is looking pretty favorable you know, inflation is down quite a bit -- not back to 2%, but we're pretty close i think if the fed has some scope to ease further it would limit some of the downside risks. so we're probably looking at a pretty soft landing, though, you know, with either outcome for the election, i think the policy -- the fan of uncertainty widens out as we get into next year, and certainly into late next year when we have fiscal policy decisions that either

candidate or, you know, whichever party has congress, will have to content with. that definitely makes things more murky. >> michael, thanks so much have a great weekend. >> you too, sir. michael feroli this number is potential a business political issue eamon javers has the washington reaction what is it >> potential look, this is perhaps the least politically significant jobs report of the year just days out from a presidential election, it was instantly swept up in the maelstrom of political commentary on tv and online, but because we're just two business days away from the election, there's just not enough time for this particular number to have much impact. for their part, the white house was eager to put the number in context, arguing the devastating hurricanes and strikes we saw in

october means this month's data is just an outlier the white house released a statement saying job growth is expected to rebound in november, as the hurricane and rebuilding efforts continue, and jared bernstein emphasized just how temporary at the considers this data to be. >> we know there were two power telephone forces leading to negative and temporary impacts on payroll growth. those were, of course, the hurricanes that really hit the southeastern united states, and the strikes. if you account for those factors, the underlying pace of payroll job growth is still healthy, probably in the 150,000 ranges. >> now, you heard jared punch that word "temp rear." that's the message from the white house, but the trump campaign was eager to exploit the weak number, releasing a statement saying -- this jobs report is a catastrophe, and

definitively reveals how badly kamala harris broke our economy. so the reaction to this report is just as divided as america itself back over to you. >> very interesting. eamon, thanks very much. an interesting development this appearing, the ten-year yield rising bam above 4.3%. like at that, ty, almost 4.36. we have done a round trip and then some after that weak jobs report rick santelli will break it all down what do you see? >> well, first of all, the market did a major u-turn. let's consider how quickly it went down. it didn't go down very much, though if you look at a two-day chart, very important here, kelly, not only did we u-turn, we traded higher we're on pace for a four-mount high-yield close and, if you look at a couple

days in front of the september jobs report, on the left side, you can see how much we increase when i was doing the numbers, and i saw how also kickback the market gave on what would perceived to be a weak report, i knew something was wrong people are asking what is going wrong? here's an easy answer. not only is it noisy, how accurate is it consider, before the revisions, august and sep had a column heart nearly a 30% revision now. who will pay attention to any of these numbers? when the bureau of labor statistics tells us how much hurricanes influence there was and wasn't, how can we trust that they have no idea about seasonality. these numbers aren't very good the argument is they've never been very good, but the market has never been under the thumb of so much government control. that's why it means so much

more, and investors scrounge for every data point next week we have an election, we have $125 billion in supply which could have been another reason for the market's u-turn 42 billion tens, 25 billion 30s, a delayed meeting by the fed by a day because of the election, and of course we'll have a fed meeting, all crammed into one week after what is perceived to be a weird report. i would trust the market's interpretation, and if you don't trust that, it has been to say looking at debt deficits you can talk about soft landing all day long if you need credit or even remotely look at how much -- you would question the whole notion of a soft landing. tyler, back to you. >> let me follow up with a question you mentioned very interestingly the ideas that maybe the numbers have been very good. have the numbers not only never been very good, but has the

variability, in other words, the size and frequency of these revisions gotten greater in recent year? >> i think they have gotten a bit greater in recent year i think part of that is the whole process of how you gather information from the public in general. i question anybody that answers their telephone for a number that's not in it or talks to somebody who knocks on the front door i think we need to do a lot of revamping on measuring the economic at a time when the fed's presence and balance sheet is by historic standards, crazy big. >> it goes to the question of polling as well. in other words, the polls typically called people on land lines or knocking on doors you get a certain kind of person who is willing to participate in those sorts of surveys, and many others who are not willing to do it it calls into question the methodology. rick santelli, have a great

wee weekend. some companies like alphabet costs costs may have to be cut once again workers are not happy with the gue message, and telling management they don't want any more tricks in their halloween bag. details, next.

welcome back to "power lunch. despite a messy october jobs report, it seems investors are looking past it as stocks are rising to start november can you believe it's november 1st? my goodness. the dow right now is up 264, but the major averages still ending on a bit of a choppy note for the weak as the s&p and

nasdaq will pull lower there you see week to date in real time. here to discusses it off, keith learners, from truist wealth welcome, good to have you with us it's been a good year by any standard it is one of the best election years since the 1950s. does good performance tend to beget good performance either for the remainder of this year or into the next >> first, tyler and kelly, always great to be with you. just looking at a starting point, tip dale when you have a strong first ten months, over 15% in any year, the final two months of the year, you have up 95% of the time, 19 out of 20 times. history is on your side. let's say if we look as election years themselves, typically up about 78% of the time with an average gain of about 3% warren buffett said if all you

needed was history, the richest people would be librarians but a market in motion tends to continue even if we have volatility around the election or major event the last weeks, the trend is still pointing higher. >> so what could screw it up >> using history as a guide, normally you have a bit of a pre-election pullback. you haven't seen that. so normally we have the preelection pullback, overdone because it's based on anxiety. once you get past the election, whoever wins, the market tends to have a sigh in relief i think also there's just been so close of a race that investors are almost -- even though there's so much talk about t. investors have been looking through it

i think details could maybe have a jolt of volatility, but i think the mortgage important thing is the direction of economy and again, you might have a jolt of volatility over the next week or two. >> we've been bucking trends here, first of all, september wasn't negative for the first time in nine years, then october, it's always supposed to be markets are weak, and a bit worried about the buy the rumor, sell the fact outcome come tuesday? >> on a very short-term basis, that is, you know, at all-time highs, a bit of opt tism for our investor base, we're not looking the next week or two we're invests for -- our type frame is typically 36 months or so i want to stick with the primary trend. if we get a pullback on the other side, and we think it's urn search around the election,

we would use that as a opportunity. elections matter, but other factors tend to matter more in aggr aggregate, the underlying foundation and the economy is still in our favor. >> one of the things you mentioned a moment ago was the idea that post-election, the markets tend to heave a sigh of relief in this case, we may not know who the winner is for several days, maybe even several weeks it may be contested. so there could be a period of unknowing, and that's -- in my view, that's a non-trivial chance what would that do to the market >> the market won't like that initially, because it's uncertainty. we have seen this before we saw it around the hanging chads back in 2000. >> um-hmm. >> but whatever the prior tend going into the election, that's likely the direction after the uncertainty.

so you think investors will have to buckle up, it will be a challenge on a short-term base it may be a couple days, maybe a couple weeks, not likely a couple months and certainly not a couple years. >> let us hope it's not a cup the years. >> who will govern in the meantime give me three sectors you love, two you don't. >> we still like tech. we still think the ai cycle has room. >> there's one. >> financials, the economy is doing well, and credit holding up a third, a bit of a hedge and also an ai play, utilities. >> ones you don't like >> the two we are underweight currently are consumer staples, which in a strong economy people will pay up for that also, energy i think energy prices are somewhat range bound, and trends remain weak. >> keith lerner, thank you so much

have a good weekend. >> thank you still to come, first we'll explore the geopolitical risks and ahead is "three stock lunch. there's a lot coming up. clem's not a morning person. or a... people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for clem. let our expertise round out yours. it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing... nope. ai, done, built. let's get to work. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.

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the nasdaq is up by about 0.8 of 1%. >> we're going to navigate around the oil and gas space there's a lot of influences from domestic production, all kinds

of different influences. our next guest is saying selling has subsided as geopolitical risks increase he's here to tell us -- joining us is phil stroebl phil, thanks so much for being with you one of reasons we're talking about crude is the price movements. and we got fundamental news. take us through why crude oil is due for a pop. >> earlier in the week after gapping lower, the risk premium seemed to be removed, and trader could get back to the basics we saw futures bottom on tuesday on improves fundamentalic. and 3 million barrels were added to the spr we've been monitoring china's

recoveries they're the number two consumer of crude oil so they're starting to show the stimulus measures are taken as gaining track shuns, finally opec's production could be delayed. then the geopolitical situation in the middle east and we're back to 2.50 ranges on crude oil. once you get the uncertainty out of the election away, the chinese stimulus is starting to take shape, the u.s. and eurozone start to cut rates, that's where you get the mid 70 crude. strait up play the oil futures energy-related stocks? how exactly do you do that >> yeah, if you look at exxon, they're one of the majors this year

that's where we have no more than 10% allocation in any one name no more than 50% allocated to cash, but the trade we believe is buys the january microcrude contract, keeps you in the game until mid december we like the microcrude we're recommending to buy the january at $66 with a stop at 63 we're targeting $75, so essentially the risk is $300 the reward is $900 >> there's the play. phil streible, have a nice weekend. >> you too tyler, with you theed crude trade, people like to use the leveraged, because they provide some octane, but it lets you define risk. so in this sit situation you

say, i'm going to risk no more than $3. >> that's an interesting way to play it and limit the down side. >> sure. >> dom, thank you very much. kelly, back to you. >> thank you both. roblox reports aasve msi third quarter. after the break, we'll talk to roblox's ceo stay with us

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♪ ♪ ♪ u.s. intelligence officials concluded russia was behind a viral video on social media platform x, which falsely claimed to show a haitian immigrant illegally voting in georgia. the group of federal agencies said the kremlin also manufactured a video accusing someone associated with the

democratic ticket taking a bribe from a u.s. entertainer. the agency warn this is part of mo moscow's broader effort to. airlines are criticizing the biden administration over its probe into air travel competition. they say the justice department 'review could dramatically impact the future of aviation, and asking the doj to extend the comment period for another 60 days. the los angeles dodgers are celebrating their world championship right now with a downtown parade and stadium ceremony in l.a. they clinched the title for the eighth time wednesday after defeating the yankees in five games kelly, for mookie betts, this is his third ring.

>> hey's a great player. he's just all in, terrific defensively, and a great hitter. and he can plague different positions. and rho box had an earnings beat yesterday, still if% this week. the online gaming platform reported its highest daily active users growth rate in about two years, this after they were under scrutiny after a report from short saider hindenburg research, highlighting safety issues, prompting the company for issue news features last week. steve? >> hey there, kellie. i'm joined by david mizuki, coming off that report, up nearly 20%. you raised your guidance for the year. i want to dive into some of the this. we do now from the hindenburg

report, they ailing there's some funky accounting but on, part of the issue here seems to be they say you guys aren't able to separate actual people from accounts. that could be people running multiple accounts, you're running two separate kinds of books. >> so, first, thanks for having me on the show, steve. we had an amazing quarter driven by absolutely amazing viral content, awesome creators, revenue up 29% year on year. daily active users up 27% over 13 users up 34%. india and japan up 50%, and $218 million of free cash flow. that report we completely reject

all the implications of that report. that's by a short seller. the motivation sometimes of a short seller are -- we make financial notes of how we account all of this stuff, and we just completely reject the report. >> so those your numbers, the 88.9 those are accounts or people? >> those are daily active accounts. in our s-1 and 10-q, we have a lot of notes and we've never changed it. if you read our shareholder letter, it's interesting, the ratio of our books to daily active users to hours has been consistent for six year. if anything, our bookings are growing more quickly than our daily active users. we have no motivation during our value sim is around transparency, there's no motivation other than to report

actively. >> the last couple weeks you introduced a slew of new features. i know this has been top of mind for you, but also at the same time we've seen levelled criticism, especially in this hindenburg report, but one thing i was interested in is age verification. that seems to be not just a problem or a challenge for you guys, meta is going through it as well. how do you determine if it's actually a 13-year-old. can you talk a bit about how you are thinking about age verification, and do you agree with meta that apple and google need to take a deeper role here through the app stores to verify ages? >> once again, complete le reject all the implications of that report. every day tens of millions of people live on roblox ever day.

our vision is to -- safety is the primary thing we focus on. we literally ship over 30 improvements in the last year. i want to share an example of how far we are into leading the charge here, and trying to help the rest of the we run all of the voight our did you we shared on hugging face, it's popped of popped up as one of the most downloaded model, and there's large other companies using our voice safety model. it's a top priority. we think there's a place on the internet for a beacon for safety and civility. that's roblox really. the way we design our safety systems, yes, age verification is very important, but we don't

think of safety for just younger people. we think of safety and civility really for everyone. >> you think apple and google have a deeper role to play on that front? >> i would say there's opportunities everywhere, but we go beyond that. we are not waiting for apple and google. we are not depending on someone else. we build our safety systems both comments, communication, we have over 150 ai systems supporting our civility initiatives. we're not waiting for anyone to do something else on the platform. >> tyler has a question for you. >> dave, thank you for joining us. i want to read something from a recent bloomberg news report, quote -- unlike competitors, roblox under recently let children of any age establish account and talk to strangers. advocates have criticized the ease with which children on roblox can chat with people they adopt know. as of september, roblox no

longer lets children under the age of 5 set up accounts. that seems like a bit of a figure leaf on the problem, if it is accurate. would you address the comments by these author at bloomberg, whether they are accurate and what you have done to ensure that children of a young age -- 25 and 15 is a big difference, that those children are safe on your website. first, i do want to just recognize how important this is to us as a company. i've got four kids. they've been playing roblox for a long time. through our employees, many, many of us have our own kids playing on the platform. we're very thoughtful in our safety systems for all ages, both on experience guidelines, how we filter text, how we

control who people communicate with. even in q3, we introduced a suite of innovations. helping creators on moderating their own experiences. we introduced improvements, simplifications for parents on our platform as well. it's something we're working on always and will never stop. >> it seems like age verification could solve a lot of these issues. again, it's not exclusive to ro roblox. it feels like age verification -- >> i want to -- i want to lean in that we want to go well beyond age verification. if someone ends up on roblox who is 16, even if they have used different ways to verify their age, we want to protect them as well. so we're not just thinking under 13. we're thinking everyone on our

platform. every piece of text on our platform goes there a filter. every image goes through a moderator. there's no way to share images on roblox, zero. we think of it as much of a holistic opportunity for us. we think there's an opportunity for roblox to be the beacon of internet civility and safety. >> how do you account for the multitude of accounts with names like jeffrey epstein oar other choice people who are not only sbenksal doing nefarious things, but are still trafficking the kind of stuff that would make parents sick to know about. it isn't sxwrub age verification. do you have the basic amount of staff or to go through and find accounts like that and make sure they're removed from the platform, and if you have to build that out, is that an overhang on earnings going forward?

>> i want to highlight your noting user names, which we take very seriously. we take every bad experience on our platform seriously. i want to highlight in q3, over 21 billion hours of optimistic, simple, engaging play time on our platform. we've had countless number of people reach out and share that roblox is literally saved their child's life by providing a way to connect and communicate. of course, we will never stop. of course, if an account as you name it is offensive, we will continue to improve our systems. i do want to highlight our vision and the fact we will never stop on this. i'd like to talk about the quarter as well. >> i do. i want to talk about advertising, yeah.

>> i want to talk a little bit about our quarter, which was enormous. weed biggest quarter ever. it was driven by almost 2 million creators making incredible content, dress to impress went completely viral. millions of people. on my social media feed i was seeing college students playing dress to impress in their college classroom. i want to highlight nfl univ universe. literally a sports league sponsored experience popped into our top standings. what you're seeing is really the early signs of what we believe will be a platform supporting 10% of the whole gaming it's driven by by ground around the world, driven by growth of amazing content.

this makes good business sense for us to be the safest place on the internet. that's a great way to end it. i did want to get an advertising moment, but we'll save that for another time. thank you. >> i appreciate it. >> it was a huge blockbuster report. thank you for being here. >> enjoyed it. thank you for taking our very direct questions. we appreciate it. remember, cnbc is live all nice on election nights. coverage starts at 7:00 p.m. shatter eastern from the new york stock exchange, live coverage in the overnight hours. it will go all night long, but asian and european markets as th on.eype "squawk box" starts at 5:00 a.m., not 6:00 a.m., it's usual time. "power lunch" will be right back. okay! client wants his head bigger. wow, fast response. sent! okay, oop! even bigger.

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welcome back. it's time now for three stock lunch. we'll trade some key earnings movers from the day. we have plenty to pick from. here's quinn tate throw. quint, welcome back. we'll start with apple. we haven't spent a lot of time on that one but it's trading lower by 1.5%. 6% growth in iphone and overall sales but net income was down on that one off tax charge.

quint, you've been a p bit of a contrarian on apple. what are you going to do here? >> i'm going to continue to be contrarian. i'm not a fan of apple here, kelly, and it comes down to valuation. you're talking about a company that projects low double digit growth trading 26 times forward earnings. they have a levered up balance sheet. yes, the apple intelligence may kick off a recycle replacement with the phones but i'd rather wait to see it in the numbers before i pay up for the stock here. it's not interesting to me. >> let's move on to another a. amazon. higher after posting higher than expected third quarter. cloud computing. advertising businesses. what do you say here, quint, on amazon. >> tyler, it is clicking in. this is one i was also skeptical of because of the valuation. now we see it in the numbers. obviously the stock is reacting to that. they're positive on all fronts. retail sales better than

anticipated which is great from a consumer standpoint. the cloud business shows us how much people are spending on the ai movement in the small business, medium sized business area and their own capex spending. even though it still is rich in valuation, 22% growth, 33 times earnings, this is a name that i think grows into those numbers and is attractive here on this breakout. i'd be a buyer of amazon. >> how about tesla then? that kind of takes us back a couple of weeks when it pops 20% on that huge gain in profit in the third quarter. this week giving some of that back. what's the trade here, quint? >> yeah. kelly, i'm a fan. i'm a fan of tesla. i'm he a fan of elon. when you get a name like this that has a great quarter on all fronts and then pulls back digesting that move, that's an opportunity for people here to pick up shares. doesn't happen often. a lot of these names get up and go but, again, this pull back i think offers us opportunity. it's pretty rich.

the stocks trading 36 -- or, sorry, 75 times forward, 36% growth but tesla has. elon does amazing things. it is a name that will have pin action on the election since elon hit the trump trail. we do like tesla on this pull back here. we are already owners but we have been adding to our position this week. >> quint, thank you so much. we appreciate your time. have a great weekend. quint tatro. >> remember, you can always hear us always on our podcast. be sure to follow and listen to "power lunch" wherever you go. we will be right bk th acwi a final check on the markets. it's all the things that keep this world turning.

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welcome back to p"power lu lunch", everybody. a great story by jennifer elias. all hands meeting at google on wednesday where executives dressed in halloween costumes. they fielded questions about nervous employees about possible job cuts. the meeting came after alphabet's earnings when the cfo indicated more cost cuts could be coming, and at this meeting the cfo was wearing a reggie miller jersey, basketball player. chief scientist was dressed as a star fish and sundar said error 404, costume not found. visit cnbc.com. >> is there ever going to be a leadership summit that doesn't include airing of grievances by the employee base? i think they should just stop having these. what is a zmeefd then just make it a one-way broadcast. >> then you're dressed as an error message. >> different kind of error.

>> the market's looking like they're going out on a high note. there's another hour left. up 363 points on the dow as you see there. the almost .9 of a percent. have a great weekend, everybody. thank you so much for watching "power lunch." >> big trip in the bond yield. "closing bell" starts right now. okay, guys. thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner front and center. very big week ending, an uncertain one about to begin as the bull market tries to make sense of it. stocks rallying over the board. we're going to ask ourexperts what lies ahead in this last and very important hour. take a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. weaker than expected but noisy jobs report all being brushed off by the markets. most of the megacaps higher, too, with the exception of apple following that company's earnings last night. you see that stock down about