tv Closing Bell CNBC November 1, 2024 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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>> the market's looking like they're going out on a high note. there's another hour left. up 363 points on the dow as you see there. the almost .9 of a percent. have a great weekend, everybody. thank you so much for watching "power lunch." >> big trip in the bond yield. "closing bell" starts right now. okay, guys. thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner front and center. very big week ending, an uncertain one about to begin as the bull market tries to make sense of it. stocks rallying over the board. we're going to ask ourexperts what lies ahead in this last and very important hour. take a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. weaker than expected but noisy jobs report all being brushed off by the markets. most of the megacaps higher, too, with the exception of apple following that company's earnings last night. you see that stock down about
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1.5%. other big winners, intel and chipotle which is bouncing back following post earnings selloff. it takes us to our talk of the tape. two months to go for stocks and a very big week ahead with the election and the fed meeting looming large. let's ask our panel what's really at stake. stephanie link, greg branch of branch global capital advisers and stef and greg are cnbc contributors. mr. branch, what's your current view of the market? >> so it's still neutral. and other than the election, i'm really searching for a catalyst to believe in, earth negative or positive. when we look at the election, of course there's some derisking that goes on no matter what the outcome is with one candidate. on another level down, when you transition from candidate to elected official, we get to weed out some of the rhetoric and noise that was never going to make it into policy anyway.
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i think that's a derisking event as well. thirdly, both candidates have been in office before so we know what sectors and industries they've been supportive of and where we might see a very particular specific tailwind. >> you've been willing to stay neutral i think for a while. >> uh-huh. >> in slow lane, so to speak. >> right. >> all this traffic's been passing you in the left lane. >> it has. >> and why have you refused to hit the pedal and join the rush? because you've missed out, obviously. >> sure. >> on a good amount of this rally, this bull market. >> sure. i think my answer is typified by some of the market activity we've seen over the last months, and that is the data's still kind of mixed, scott. so earnings growth for five straight quarters is great, however, this quarter's at 3.6% as opposed to last quarter's 13%. that bears some watching. on the inflation front,
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obviously we continue to experience disinflation and it remains a topic that most don't want to talk about, however, the core number has shot back into the 30 basis points range for month-over-month core growth for the last two months now. so where fr i look there's data that makes me optimistic but still things that give me pause for thought. i think i'll become more bullish when i find multiples and consensus expectations leaving room for outperformance. i don't see that right now. >> stef, what do you make of that? >> reporter: well, i think we should applaud 2.8% gdp growth because that's above trend, well above trend. i think the labor market is softening but it's still on balance for the most part if i look at adp and initial jobless claims. if i look at the 3-month moving avenue for nonfarm payrolls, we're slowing there. that's the reason why we have a
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fed that is embarking on a fed cut cycle. we have lower inflation and employment cost index of .8 this week, which was less than expected. a pce at 2.1 and consumption, the consumer is hanging in there to everyone's surprise. look at final sales to domestic purchases, up 3.2%. that is a very healthy number. and of course you have this manufacturing renaissance and all you need to do is point to eaton, quantum services, gevernova as examples of this renaissance. anything tried to the grid, power, electrification. that, of course, is tied to ai. i add it up and see total revenues at 5% and earnings right now on my numbers are up 9%. so i think that's very healthy. i think we have some volatility into next week. we've got a lot going on, but i think that once we get through it, i think we rally in november and december as people chase because they're underperforming
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and you've got $6.4 trillion in money markets. >> greg, earnings versus a year ago are up 8.4%. i'm not sure where your number is. >> exit has s&p 500. >> here's what i think the bottom line is is that the economy iss undeniably good. >> great. >> you said the data is mixed. in total, it's not really mixed. >> let's stop there for a minute. i second a lot of what stephanie said. not only is gdp great, right? but the third quarter doubled -- sorry, the second quarter doubled the first quarter. the third quarter number is going to show acceleration as well, but to what extent is it too good is my concern? when we see the core number jumping back into the 30 basis points. look, i'm not the only one who is concerned that perhaps they moved too far too fast, right? >> they did one hike of 50 basis points. >> i've gotcha and here we are
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back in the 30 basis point core month over month again. >> i know, but where -- >> my bet is it will be 25 for the next cut and the concern will be let's make sure that it doesn't accelerate from there. >> aya, i beg your pardon. i'm going to bring in steve liesman. i'll come to you in a moment. i feel now is a good moment to talk to steve, our senior economics reporter. i presume you've heard the conversation from the beginning. do you want to weigh in on whether -- i mean, i'd say whether greg's too pessimistic. he admits the economy is good. he's thrown i suppose by the most recent inflation report so it's coloring his overall view i think about what might lie ahead. >> yeah. i don't think greg is wrong to be concerned about those risks. i think stephanie has it right and i'll put an asterisk next to that. the economy does look like it's
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doing good, doing well and should be set up for corporate profits. the problem i have that is not really something i have any expertise in is the market seems to have valued that pretty well, right? you take a look at the longer term look at the market and it's come up pretty strongly. there is an expectation out there i think that things go along, right? you've had stronger growth than expected. you've had a stronger consumer hanging in there. you've got inflation coming down. the job market hanging in there. scott, my canvassing of economists today, they say if i made them make a call on this very distorted number, they would say on balance it was softer than they expected and that's because, a, they were below expectations even though the strike effects and the hurricane effects were anticipated. they were greater than expected, but you have those downward revisions. if you look inside the numbers, scott, i took a look, you had a 50k decline, for example, in
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temporary health. when we have big spikes in people not being there for weather -- there you go, temporary help down 49. manufacturing, that's your strike right there. maybe it's 100,000, which means you're only at 112 if you do very, very strict math on this. maybe there are a few other places where the hurricane or the strike showed up but then you look at some of these weather events and they come back pretty strong. look at that, 1.8 million weather outages in '96. each time you have a strike, i'm going to keep my temporary help at home. that's part of it. still, you were easonly at 112. the market is like, hey, the fed is still going to cut. it's not about will the fed cut this month or next month, it's where the market will end up. they're having an interesting terminal rate debate now. >> steve, i presume that you saw
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the piece in the "journal" about the headline being the next president inherits a remarkable economy. that's the headline of his piece. in which he talks about the growth is being great in its own right but the quality of that growth. that's the word that he uses. >>ing yeah. >> i want you to weigh in on that, too. >> well -- >> and i wonder if -- if those who are concerned or nay saying on what's happening are truly appreciating the productivity gains we've already seen and the ones that we anticipate as a result in part because of what artificial intelligence is doing and changing the way we live, work, and just about everything else. >> it's fascinating. first of all, scott, as you know, the economy is a disaster. you know that's what's been said about the economy. it's just not in the data. people feel poorly about the economy in part because of price increases, but what greg is
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getting at is the gazillion dollar question. if there is more productivity in these numbers than just straight buying and selling of stuff but we're getting more efficient and -- i do want to tell you, scott, any time there is a bump up in productivity in the short term, the better bet is that it's temporary. it's always the better bet. but if something profound is going on that has a big, massive, huge implication for the stock market, the economy and the federal reserve, scott, there was a day this week there were two headlines on the front page of the journal that i thought were repeats. wrun one company was looking for 50 basis points. no, they were not separate stories. they were not the same story. they were separate stories, $90 billion just in one day being announced of investment. and remember the old greenspan sort of song on this thing. what he would say in it, if
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people are investing in it, there's probably some value there. >> yeah. i mean, i guess it's going to continue to be a pretty good debate on this topic. steve, thank you. i want to turn all of this back to the market because, aya, if you believe that the economy is in as good shape as most people would not only believe but would have you believe and the fed's cutting interest rates, then what does that mean for where we go from here? >> sure. so, you know, when i look at earnings growth and this past earnings season, we've had a pretty solid earnings season. it hasn't been fantastic or knock it out of the ballpark but, you know, it's been pretty solid. we've had over 70 p% of the companies that have reported beat on earnings and 60% beat on revenues. that continues to be a positive. to steve's point about productivity, we saw it from google's quarter, they talked about over 25% of new code being
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written by ai. amazon talked about it on their quarter in which they had great operating efficiencies in aws with operating margins expanding by 780 basis points year over year. we're seeing that at the largest tech companies and that's going to trickle down eventually over the coming months to other companies. >> stef, what did we learn this week from these megacap companies other than the fact they're just not going to trade, at least it doesn't appear, in the near term as a monolith. we're differentiating ourselves and separating ourselves from the pack. amazon obviously which you added to last week and to the numbers having a great day. apple is sort of eh and meta and microsoft falling sharply after their own earnings. >> i think it's a lot about expectations, right, scott? amazon had low expectations but the quarter was outstanding. i had just mentioned the margin side of the story is really very, very powerful.
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they expanded margins in retail in north america by 100 basis points. international by 360 basis points and in aws 780 basis points. we also saw margin expansion in other sectors, scott. we saw margin expansion at dr horton in their housing business. we saw margin expansion in chipotle. we saw margin expansion again in some of the mag 7, not all of them, even a little bit at apple, right. number one, it's a -- i think earnings season, it's going to be good revenue numbers but better margin story. that's a 2025 story as well. that's number one. number two, free cash flow is just enormous. then the big names that reported this week, the hyper scalers, they are going to spend $270 billion on ai this year alone. that's up 41%. probably another 251 billion next year and we got that in spades. this is not a bubble in terms of ai. are some of the stocks
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expensive? absolutely. are expectations really high for some of them? absolutely. that's why you saw microsoft and alphabet -- well, mixed results. i mean, microsoft was down and meta was down and alphabet was a little bit better and amazon was a little bit better. i think you can pick stocks and look for strong fundamentals where the companies are investing for growth in the future and where the expectations, though, are a little bit less. that's the story of amazon and alphabet. >> greg, your big take away, i suppose, is that if you're cautious on the market overall, you don't sound really that cautious from your notes on this group, that you think breadth is going to narrow once again and this is the place that you want to remain. >> yeah, that's right. when you look at, again, the fact set numbers for the s&p, the overall was 3.6% but in communication services driven by meta and by google, na sector was up 20%. and so generally as we get into
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the territory where steve said we are where things seem fully valued, where we don't see an acceleration necessarily across the board in earnings, will investors retreat to those that have much superior earnings power and as stef pointed out, much superior cash flow generation. >> that's one of the debates. the market, some would suggest, not that steve was necessarily saying it himself, that -- well, the markets priced all this stuff in, that it's fully valued. now it already knows, right, the earnings growth is good. it's going to remain we think pretty good. the fed's cutting. the multiple's kind of, you know, maybe rich. the maybe not. maybe not. because if you can maintain this kind of economic growth that we have, if you can maintain the kind of earnings growth that we have, you're going to get a reduction in interest rates. firmly believe that. there's no reason to believe we're not. we'll get slower in one stock.
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>> agree. we have to find an interest rate. >> higher than what the fed thought it was going to be. we can agree on that. >> probably. >> then you're going to unleash all of this pent-up demand and what some smart investors have called animal spirits that are just waiting to do m&a. >> right. >> you're going to paint a picture that doesn't look nice and beautiful to hang on the wall? >> it doesn't look ugly. it doesn't look ugly. i'm not bearish. i'm not saying we should go out and short anything, all i'm saying is we can achieve a good return right now without taking on excess risk and to me that means focusing on companies that i'm confident no matter what happens with the macro environment because there's all kind of political and other macro risks we haven't touched on, but in an environment that may get more hazardous, i'm confident and more confident in investing in things that have a structural supply and demand balance like shipping, glp1
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companies or these tech names that continue to put up 30% plus earnings growth. >> yes. aya, what's wrong with that point of view, right? i mean, it's narrow -- greg has narrowed his horizons on where he thinks the best risk/reward is in this market, whether it's megacap tech, glp1, stef has a new buy on eli lilly on the pull back. she used that, too. give me your perspective on that. >> sure. i think what everybody's getting on that is diversification is important, right? we need to have some tech exposure. we continue to see the growth that's coming out of a lot of these megacap hyper scalers, but diversifying outside of tech is also very important. you know, whether it is add being to health care or even some of the financials. they were one of the first to report and jpmorgan had a great quarter. we think you should still have some exposure there despite
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rates coming down. it's really about having that full diversified portfolio. >> stef, i front ran your move here. the fact that you bought lilly this week on that pull back that it had, talk more about that. >> yeah. i mean, it's not cheap, scott, so i'll give you that, but it is the number one franchise in one of the hottest places to be in terms of weight loss and diabetes. you're talking about between the two, about a $500 billion total addressable market by the end of the decade, and i'm probably low by a factor of two or three times. this is, as i mentioned, the number one player, and i think that they just delivered 42% total revenue growth in the quarter. if you want to x out the diabetes and weight loss drugs they still grew their legacy businesses 17% in revenues. find me any pharmaceutical company that is growing at that level with the best in breed company management team, with prescription trends sequentially
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in weight loss and also diabetes up 25%. 25% sequentially. and so this is not a demand problem, this is a supply problem. i would go back to the market as a whole is -- you're right, it's not cheap, but there are themes. animal health is one. financials are another. and housing is another. animal health, there's lots of places to find cheaper stocks beyond tech and even in tech there are some stocks that are very attractive. you've just got to be selective. >> what about, greg, the idea of forget -- we've had this conversation this week. we have been, i think, having a debate, well, if not megacap, then what about small cap? >> uh-huh. >> because you figured a drop in interest rate would help those stocks finally do something, right? what about midcap stocks which seem to be in a potential sweet spot? >> i think it was tony pascarello who talked about them being a gem. a gem sitting out there waiting
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to be discovered. >> and i think over time that that's probably right because as we search for the neutral rate, as we are in the midst of not just in the u.s. but a global rate cutting program, the reduction in the risk of financial duress impacts the midcap and small cap more so than large cap. the increase in demand as we pick up demand globally i think benefits the midcap as well probably far more so than the small cap. still, scott, even as i go down cap size i look through this as --with the same prism as i do with large cap. so if i want some midcap exposure, i'm going to look in shipping zim or masterson in the u.s. that can take advantage of the supply/demand structural imbalance we see coming out of europe and asia. market is about to post its second great year in a row.
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>> a key player is obviously amazon. investments are paying off. the ai suite of products is growing three times faster than aws. think about how significant aws has been. >> do you think that amazon is moving this week? how would you put a report card out. >> that's what i think about it because they don't have great results and alphabet has great results. apple has that one comment. apple's ability to increase the
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services revenue and giving them a little bit. our own suite of products around amazon and they also can offer competitor solutions as well through bedrock. >> i want to ask you a broader question though about the environment out in silicon valley, if i may. >> sure. >> something caught my eye earlier this week. there was a comment that the linked-in co-founder reed hoffman made about the climate in the valley because of the political discourse and the different sides that some large names there have taken in this election to which he described a rift, one that might be long
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lasting, one that might have interfered with business in the valley. the idea that some lps or investors have chosen sides in the way they're investing now and in the future, and i'm just wondering what you make of that, if there's the possibility that that could reduce the pools of capital to some venture-backed companies based on which venture firm that they have been backed by. how do you takethat issue in total about what you're seeing and who you're talking to out there about that issue? >> yeah, thanks for asking that question. one of the things that i have noticed within the past couple of years is the increasing importance of policy for those that are playing within the private company ecosystem. we know that for public companies they have spent money around their interests in washington, d.c., through lobbyists or through having
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their own government affairs folks. we're now seeing that same thing happen within the valley. and i think, you know, if we were to take a look at a couple of administrations, both this current biden administration as well as the trump/pence administration, you know, the biden administration has been very systematic and aggressive, you know, filing a record i think 50 lawsuits against, you know, technology companies and it's really suppressed the m&a activity. it was a little bit more selective during the trump administration but nonetheless, you know, we are now looking at probably a 10-year low in m&a ak ticht. why is that important? it's important because it's a reflection on the agencies, the ftc, doj. in my opinion, we need to remind ourselves that not only are we suppressing the available capital because when we think about m&a activity, that's a
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strong way to get capital back to investors like the limited partners that invest in venture capital funds. venture capital funds look for the next microsoft, google, facebooks and the inability to have that capital returned means the lps are not investing back enough into the venture capital firms which kind of suppresses our ability to drive innovation. i think it's also important thinking about it from a perspective of america as a company, we need to maintain our competitive position globally and i think a lot of the suppression that we're seeing around m&a activity also suppresses our competitive nature when we start to look at the ability for big tech companies to pull in a startup and then provide those products to the customer base and then also thinking about ai and really how we're trying to, i
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think in my opinion with these current administrations or agencies, over regulate ai. the market can figure it out, and i think looking backwards, which is the way that a lot of times we're making these types of policies, is the wrong direction to look. and unfortunately i just don't know if we have the right talent and leadership to understand how dynamic the changes are within our industry, especially around ai. i can barely keep up so i'm not sure how folks that have so much on their plates and have chosen to go down that career path can keep up. >> to be continued lo, i appreciate your time. up next, we track the biggest movers into the close. pippa stevens is back with that. hi, pippa. >> one chip company is trying to right the ship and jump in after earnings. the name to watch coming up next.
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we're less than 15 from the "closing bell." back to pippa stevens with the stock she is watching. >> shares in avis are surging despite a q3 miss on the top and bottom line including a 60% year over year miss. deutsche bank has a buy on the stock. the company is positioned for return to growth in 2025 at the modest detriment of the second half of 2024. intel is the best performer in
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the dow after reporting a surprise profit for the third quarter. revenue also came in ahead of forecasts with intel raising its guidance. it comes amid the chip maker's restructuring initiative which ceo pat gelsinger called the most seminal in the share's history. >> pippa stevens. at> still ahead, we'll tell you wh's weighing on way fair after this section. we're back after this.
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their very liberal rates on idle cash, unlimited deposit bonuses and handsome retirement matching? they would descend into chaos. merciless chaos. we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. phil lebeau with the latest on the boeing strike and bob pisani breaking down the crucial moments into the close. cor, great to have you back. >> hey, great to be back. shares of wayfair slumping after better than expected sales. driven by expense control, not really stronger sales. wayfair says fewer active customers and orders. the average order value did grow more than 4%. on the earnings call they said the continuation of choppy macro
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trends and the consumers remain trepidations. they're seeing a pull back in the leadup to the election attention focused away from the home, particularly in bigger home purchases which, of course, is where wayfair skews. executives on the call expect gross profit margins to be the lower end of guidance. it gets more expensive to be able to drive shares and gain new shoppers going forward. back over to you. >> that's courtney ragan. phil, if you don't first succeed, try, try again. i guess that's something how that goes. so we'll vote again? >> third time. this is the third time the machinists will be voting. look, this is a far richer offer they've been voting on. 38% pay raise over 4 years, enhanced 401 k. signing bonus bumped upto 12 grand. for ceo, he believes this is
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hopefully the deal that finally gets the machinists, 33,000 back to work today. he sent out an employee email saying it's time we all come back together and focus on rebuilding the business and delivering the world's best airplanes. there are a lot of people depending on us. as you take a look at the shares, the machinists will be voting on monday. we don't get the results until late monday night. tuesday morning we'll know whether or not the workers will be going back into the plants at boeing perhaps as early as wednesday morning. scott, back to you. >> all right. thanks, phil. see what happens once again. that's our phil lebeau. bob, obviously we're going to have a nice day here the first of november for trading, but we've softened a little bit into the close. i notice that some of the megacap stocks that were higher today have turned down. >> yeah. i think the key story here is we still have a decent economy and the real story is strong earnings. that's overcoming these concerns
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of these election jitters we're seeing. we're 70% through. i went through them today. we have 8% growth in the s&p. the tech sector, 19% growth in the earnings. it's been going up in the last couple of weeks, not down. the fourth quarter numbers which matters are really holding up well. tech is going to be up another 15%. they're not cutting those numbers appreciably, scott. that is why the s&p is only 2%. if you want two problems, one the market's expense sieve. the bad thing about good markets is it's hard to impress people. those bond yields on a daily basis. every day we get worries about that. you don't want the bond vigilantes and a lot of this is on reasonably low rates. that's why there's been this change in tone. that's why they're not going up. we're back where we were a month and a half ago in the middle of september i think largely because of the concerns. scott? >> well, we do, bob. thank you very much. that's bob pisani.
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we have a few important things in front of us, namely the election on tuesday which of course we're going to be live all evening, 7 to midnight here on cnbc around early "squawk" as well. don't miss that. we'll see on monday as we size up what lies ahead between the vote and then the fed. great weekend. over to morgan and jon in ot. >> that's the end of regulation. better wear ringing the bell. first responders' children's foundation doing the honors. november kicking off with a bang as stocks rally despite a soft jobs report. focus turning to the fed and we're still lower on the week. that's the scorecard on wall street. the action is just getting started. i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt. >> we have a big friday show. paul mcculley waeighs in on the job number. >> plus, the
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