this morning on the idea that opec is not going to be increasing supply any time soon. wti is up 3% this morning to $71.53 a barrel. well, here we go. it is election eve today. we hope you go out and vote, but we appreciate your being with us today, and we will see you back here tomorrow morning. >> vote. >> right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. coming off a couple weeks lower on the s&p heading into an historically eventful week with an election, a fed meeting, plenty of travel and media earnings, yields are lower across the board. ten-year, 4.28%. our road map begins with the big week ahead for investors as we go into the final hours of the 2024 presidential campaign, and the potential for another fed rate cut this week. plus, gen a.i. momentum.

nvidia set to replace intel as one of the 30 blue chip stocks in the dow this week. and a setback for the future of the nuclear power datacenter. federal regulators limiting how much power amazon can use. this would be from a reactor in pennsylvania. nuclear stocks. i didn't knowwe could say the words "nuclear stocks" but let's just say some power company-related names are getting hit on this. >> well put. let's begin with the markets on this election eve. plenty of starts rolling around this morning, jim, about what happens to stocks in the weeks -- or the six months following an election. usually up. >> yeah, and i just think it's odd that it doesn't matter who, i also think that this iowa news kind of flipped a lot of stocks and then flipped back, but iowa news that it looked like, you know, a state that is a republican state may switch. >> right, you're referring to a specific poll by a very well known and well respected pollster that showed, in a

dramatic fashion, harris was leading when, in fact, she had been trailing significantly previously. a lot of people people pointed out over the weekend. unclear whether it's right and what it would mean. >> the futures are up, and i thought that was because of iowa. then, the futures were down. maybe people forgot about iowa. one thing, carl, i hate to say this because you are captaining the team. you're the anchor for a night that may last a week. maybe last two weeks. i just don't get any sort of clarity that this thing is over after the election. it just doesn't seem possible when you have one candidate who does not accept defeat. >> there is a broad expectation, and the "times" wrote about it extensively over the weekend that trump will declare victory at some point on election night. >> either way. unless it's a blowout. >> unless it's a decisive win, one way or the other. but let's -- jim, let's assume it is as close as the polls would indicate, but that harris

ultimately prevails in a close electoral college, trump is expected to contest that. >> yes. >> what will be the impact on the stock market if that goes on for quite some period of time and there is some unrest associated with it? >> we have some bizarre bull market where it will just depend of some stocks go up more than others. i don't see this market going down on that. >> you don't? >> no, i see the market going down on treasury auctions. that's where i see. look, treasury auctions are -- >> that said, the inflation trade has been the trade that many have focused on if they've been expecting a trump victory. >> yes, absolutely. >> so, if harris were to win, would rates -- would you have the ten-year come down? >> yes. >> but i think many people still expect the market would also come down, in part because of the likelihood that trump would contest the election. >> look, the president doesn't do that much versus earnings.

the earnings have just been -- that's what's been controlling things. all i'm saying is, yes, there would be disarray politically, but if we have good earnings, the buyers can't resist. no buyer says, you know, i'd like to buy viking therapeutic, but i can't because trump may contest it. it just doesn't work like that. either the buyers are too stupid or we're all just cloistered in our own little world. >> we're about 70% of the way into earnings. 78% are beating by an aggregate 7.1%, historical average is 4.9%. it's been a good quarter. >> it's definitely been, and i think that you can -- it's almost hard to find losers. some of the health insurers, but i -- in general, there isn't a group that didn't have some real standouts except for the drug stocks, which had the majors. merck wasn't that good.

lilly was the most convoluted. look, i owned lilly for the travel trust. i went over it again this weekend and it was like a -- it was like they were trying to do some sort of backward hurdle and didn't make it. >> i think lilly's closing in on a 20% decline from the q3 highs. >> it's my trust. it should. i mean, i want a do-over. i still don't understand what david ricks was saying. i know that viking therapeutics has some sort of hundred meg but lilly is supposed to have -- >> what? what? a hundred meg oral? they don't have it on the market. >> no, and it's a small sample. i'm saying that when you have a lilly, which is hobbled by its own, we can't do anything because there's a shortage, it makes it so everybody's free fire zone, and so this trial by viking, which is a very small group, suddenly, people are worried that could be beating lilly out. stock was up 17 and now it's up much less because people

realized it's a small sample. i'm saying it's very hard to make a pill that could have that much power. >> but we also know lilly, not to mention novo, they're working on oral indications, oral -- the same drug delivered in that fashion as opposed to obviously right now you have to do it intravenously. >> this is the problem. i got no certainty. i always thought that lilly was ahead on everything. >> yes. >> i don't think they're ahead on anything. nobody said anything. >> what? what? >> go back over the call. why not say that you're somewhere, like, ready to manufacture. we've got -- look, here's how the call should have been. >> ready to manufacture? >> here's how the call should have been. we're ahead of everyone. we've got a manufacturing mote. we're not worried about the fda shortage. the numbers will be up next quarter. that was the -- what i was looking for. >> what about the old underpromise, overdeliver? what about that? >> that's something that annette ashkenazi practiced with alphabet. i'm saying that it turned out that the chief financial officer led to some stability there.

i like david ricks very much. >> you've been upset about that call. >> i'm furious about that call. you kidding me? i think lilly's ahead. i think lilly has an oral pill. i think that they have great visibility in terms of their manufacturing. and i thought that zepbound was doing well. i was wrong on all three. >> i keep trying to draw you back into this discussion on rfk jr., who's no fan of obesity drugs, no fan of vaccines, no fan of fluorination of drinking water -- >> i think the sterling character in "dr. strangelove" would be running the fda. >> bodily fluids. >> he was at school with me, and that's terrific. that's all i have to say. >> no. >> i didn't vote for him. >> at this point -- >> fluoride? we're back on fluoride?

>> what job would he have in the administration? >> tsar. czar of drugs. >> by the way, no fluoride. >> how about measles? where are we on measles? is he pro-measles? one kid had measles in class, and the next day, everybody had measled. where is he on that? >> i was joking over the weekend, time to go long henry schein. >> yes. that's very good. remember your buddy used to run stanley bergman, your pal. >> my pal? no. my grandfather knew henry schein. >> that's close enough. >> yes. >> for government work. this government work. >> they were friends. >> just more indecision. robert f. kennedy jr. could be a -- his mother was a great soul. i loved her. i worked for rfk. i'm old enough to admit that, which is terrible. but i just think that there's just -- the fda is really serious scientists, and it's really hard to undo a lot of

things, just hard. >> yeah. >> but i was -- yes, i was deeply upset by the lilly call. i thought zepbound was doing well. i think they should have preannounced that zepbound was doing that badly. come out and say, zepbound, with the rules and the fda and the shortage, we're not going to make the numbers. then, the stock would be down 100. but instead, we've got a situation where i don't understand lilly. merck, by the way, was very confounding. i think merck was good. it was hurt by the chinese decision did not give guardasil to a hundred million people because of what? for who, for what? >> i can't explain it, but then again, there's many things that are hard to understand or explain in china, including, by the way, the state of the stimulus there, which continues to be debated. "the wall street journal" writing a somewhat informative story today and a lot of the reporting is excellent from there. but the lack of -- still trying to figure out and understand what it is that we're going to get. certainly in terms of percentage

of gdp in china, our viewers may recall so many of the stocks ran up dramatically for a couple of weeks there only to retreat yet again because the specifics have been lacking to say the least. >> now, china is isn't planning a bazooka stimulus. if trump wins this, they're going to go bankrupt as a country. they have to do so much military. remember, when trump got in the first time, he made it clear that there was a nuclear weapon if they went for taiwan, and then the second time, he was like, i don't care if they take taiwan. i'm willing to say he's inconsistent. are you willing to go there, that trump is inconsistent? are you willing to make that statement? >> there's been -- yes. yes. there's been inconsistency. >> anti-trump. i knew it. >> some of his statements, i think that is a fair -- >> taiwan is -- >> although he has reversed himself on the salt tax so at least there's that. >> i don't know. i get all my information from "saturday night live."

>> yes, you do. sometimes in-person. jim mentions undoing things. there is this shake-up of the dow today. nvidia's being added to the blue chip index and as a result, intel is out after a 25-year run. s&p dow jones indexes says tptd to ensure a representative exposure to semis. sherwin williams will join the dow. jim, today, mentions the lack of money indexed to the dow. >> this is the type of thing, before david gets into his atavistic rap about dow jones -- >> thank you. >> -- this came out. i was doing my show. i have a show. every time i say i have a show, my wife says it's the network's show. >> it is. they own it. you just show up. >> suddenly, nvidia is up three on this. there's no money really indexed -- >> no. atavistic, anachronistic, something out of its proper place and time, a price-weighted index, statistically insignificant. why we spend time talking about

about it is beyond me. >> i'll tell you why. even though i say, nvidia, own it, don't trade it, nvidia will go back to where it was friday before this announcement came and intel is the one you want to buy. pat gelsinger and i, tight. >> what did you just say? what came out of your mouth just now? >> told you. pat gelsinger and i are tight. that stock's done going down. it's ridiculous. >> by the way, i'm just reading "tight" means drunk. just letting you know. hemingway. >> pat doesn't drink. >> talk about being inconsistent. isn't he a wall of shame alum? >> no, intel bottomed. that was a very good quarter. pat gelsinger showed tremendous humility, and i think that matters because before, we got bravado and he basically said, listen, we're a little behind, we need to catch up. they don't have any real -- >> speaking of inconsistencies, are you now going positive on intel? >> yes. >> is that what i'm hearing? >> absolutely. >> what? >> i am.

>> what? >> what if -- what if speaker johnson and a president trump try to repeal the chips act as we heard a lot about friday night? >> just have empty shell buildings? >> intel hasn't got any money yet anyway. they haven't met the certain benchmarks they need to. >> your pals at brookfield, they made it happen. >> i wasn't here on friday or thursday, so it -- if i missed this -- >> try not to miss work. >> oh, i was working on thursday. >> that's right. oh, you came in. you had an idea that we were going to go with the zaslav trade? what is that? >> give me a quick summary of why you have suddenly changed course on intel. >> after the election, qualcomm said they might or may not buy intel. in the meantime, intel bit the bullet, took the losses, took the charge. their cfo prevailed. on the call, gelsinger did not say we're number one, we're the best. he admitted they almost had, like, new york giants status if

i can really go there. anyone worse? not that i know of. and i feel like that it's a brand-new intel. >> so, it couldn't get worse, only can get better? >> perfect. >> thank you. >> god, he's good. he's really good. >> thank you. yes. >> yeah. >> is there incremental success come at the cost of amd, someone else? >> no, i think there's plenty of room for everybody. what i liked about intel was, one, qualcomm could make that takeover bid because it's not a big company anymore, david. it's not a big company. but two, their balance sheet improved. i was surprised that their balance sheet could sustain the spending, although i have to tell you, carl, the balance sheet could use a little more emphasis if they -- i want to emphasize -- if they're able to keep doing all thisbuilding but they do have the pe partners and the pe partners are ready to step in. i got that from another source. pe partners are ready to step in. >> who's ready to step in where? >> brookfield. and what i got -- i got a good

call which just said, do you really want to be completely wrong on what can happen here? from a very good source that was not gelsinger. and i said, no, i don't want to be completely wrong. >> all right. >> i don't like to -- >> up on earnings. >> yeah. well -- >> or lack of earnings but on -- >> he was busy negotiating a deal, the malone is going to own us and who is malone going to -- >> john is not going to own us. he's very much focused on simplifying his life. >> charter had a good conference call. >> yes. >> nice upgrade today. >> they caught a good upgrade today. >> that could be a home. >> there was an argument to be made that comcast and charter should be allowed to merge. why wouldn't you allow that when starlink can compete anywhere in this country? if you can do that, then maybe the other part of the company wouldn't need to be broken apart. >> there's to be no fighting in the war room. >> that's a nice couple of kubrick references to start the

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over the weekend, warren buffett's berkshire hathaway reported a quarterly operating profit below consensus. the conglomerate's cash hoard now surging to $325 billion after sharing more shares of apple and b of a. berkshire says it's unloaded a hundred million of its apple shares, bringing the total sold this year to more than 600 million. jim, first time no buyback in about six years. >> i know. look, who am i to challenge the oracle of omaha? i think he's taking profits in apple because it's up a lot. i thought it was a core position. doesn't necessarily wipe out the idea it was a core position. i don't understand exactly, david, whether the stock went up

so much that therefore the buyback goes away. opportunistic buyback, it is an opportunistic buy. some of these -- >> what are they going to do with all of that cash? what do you do with that much cash? >> so, money train. >> by the way, you could make the largest deal of all time by far. >> that's true. >> if you wanted to. i mean, that's not even using any leverage. >> there are some pipeline companies you could buy. >> he already owns a railroad. >> you could buy -- you could buy energy transfer. i don't think it would sell. >> a lot of insurance businesses already. >> all right. >> that's helpful. >> travelers. >> you buy -- chubb is respected. what do you want, re-insurance? >> i don't know. it's got to be some form of speculation around whether they will or whether they'll just reinvest it in a number of other

companies. >> right, well, you know, we got a lot of money and the stock market's up big, why not wait for a big selloff? that's what i thought. i thought it was like, okay, there's been no selloff, i'm not going to work, putting this money to work, and i think that would wbe the right thing. i think it would be prudent. october was down. >> should everybody be in that kind of defensive crouch? >> not -- i think if you're king, you can be in a defensive crouch, and he's king. i think everyone else is trying to outperform. he doesn't have to outperform. he's already up a lot, and why does he have to do anything? i think he sits back and says, i'm going to wait for my pitch, and there's been no pitch. there really hasn't been. every one of these groups is all up. what's he going to do, go after humana? i mean, humana is the only company i know that has really stumbled. only in this game would a four-star be bad. >> oh, the four stars? yes. you're talking about from cms. yeah, sorry. i was trying to make sure -- i

think he's 95, buffett, right? but i always -- 94, 95. i want to make sure, but i believe he's 95 years old. >> no. >> no? >> i don't know about that. >> 94. sorry. yeah. 94. >> well, i think that he can do whatever he wants, and i don't think he needs to do anything. that's how i feel. he's not going to buy trump media. i'm telling you that right now. i'm just putting that out there. i don't know how you feel. you've already said how you feel, actually. >> have i really? have you put words in my mouth that you're afraid to say? >> that's totally what i did. totally a violation of the 4th and 16th i did for you. >> article 16. when we come back, cramer's "mad dash" and the opening bell. take another look at futures which have been around the block a couple of times this morning, currently close to session lows. stay with us. ♪ well i was raised by careful hands ♪ ♪ yeah, they made me who i am ♪ ♪ so i'm off to see... ♪

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at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere. ♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the dow with dia. getting there starts here. take a look at some ndx leaders this morning. plenty of earnings movers. today, it's constellation energy, down about eight even after a beat and raise. big story on energy supply. opening bell is coming up. don't forget, you can catch us any time, anywhere, just listen to and follow e quk t street: opening bell" podcast.

>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. let's get to a "mad dash" as

we count you down to the opening of trading for the week. dell? >> things continue to get murky with super micro. supposed to report tomorrow. i don't know if they even can. there's a one-for-one relationship. dell goes against -- >> super micro? but dell was up on the day that he resigned and added a lot of color to their decision to resign as the auditor from super micro. >> correct, which is why i defer to ben reitzes. ben has been doing the best work. he reports that dell is still only at 14 times 26 earnings, so even if that spike -- that spike did not take the stock out of the current valuation. the realm of buying. and i got to tell you, david, my understanding is dell is poaching everyone, taking all the orders. it's not really a poach. >> what about concern about nvidia at all? >> no, no -- yes. in the sense that nvidia, where are their chips?

super micro, will people buy their chips? the answer is yes, but the problem with super micro, david, might be delisting and then because they have no auditor, and then if you're -- let's say you're buying them, a customer. i think it's a way -- that's all. i feel badly for -- these guys who actually run super micro are good at their jobs, but -- wow. okay. i just think that dell is such a winner in this that you should buy it even up here. >> let's get a look at the opening bell here. at the big board, digital realty, a reet that owns, operates and invests in carrier datacenters. at the nasdaq it's sportico to honor its 2024 invest in sports conference as we're at 5,730, jim. we're going to get a lot of travel and media names this week. marriott, though, with some of these rev par numbers, not

impressing the street. >> no, and yet they bought back so much stock to the point where -- i mean, it's 5, 6% of the company. tony cupiano is a very good manager. i was surprised, but they had -- remember, they had all that china they bought? they bought a lot of china. >> right. >> and china is the kiss of death. if you have china, you missed your numbers. period. by the way, i don't know if you saw estee lauder when you were out. >> sorry? >> estee lauder. >> yeah. >> china. >> yeah. >> i have yet to see someone who said, you know what, we had a surprise in china. look, apple, urban cities, they did okay. no one cares. in the big urban areas. no one cares because people feel they've fallen behind in china. i don't know. carl, i can't find anyone -- the companies that have even so-called left china or minimized china are still being hit by china, and i just think it's just -- you got to just -- you can't ask.

every time, no matter what you do, you still get hit. until you anniversary, maybe, i don't know. it's front and center. so, if you have china, people are just saying, i don't want you. i don't want to buy that stock. but marriott buying back its stock told me they're either less worried or something happened in china near the end. but wow. travel is europe. i keep getting positive core. europe, amazon, apple, $1 billion more than we thought in europe. santander saying europe's southern rim is great, and i'm going to give it to david, see if he reacts. pigs can now fly. >> they can? >> portugal, italy, greece. >> oh, the pigs. got it. >> greece is just on fire. >> we got a bunch of pmis today. germany, 43. france, 44. italy, 46. spain, 54. >> spain is -- well, that's a lot of this -- remember, ana -- >> your favorite. you love ana. >> no, i respect her.

>> yes, you respect her. i've said you loved plenty of male ceos as well. i just meant it in the sense of you're very positive. >> have you ever heard of hr? now i'm going to have to have -- five days am i off? how many days am i off? that's why i had to shoot it down. >> you're not worried about hr. you're worried about your wife. >> she doesn't watch the show. >> getting jealous of your love for -- >> she hasn't seen this show. >> -- your love for ana. >> she doesn't have cable. >> she doesn't have cable either? >> either? >> whoa. >> no, ana is an unbelievable -- that's the largest bank in europe, and they have financed a lot of the strength in spain, and i think that it's a terrific stock. there, how about that? david, i love the stock of santander. i love the stock. no hr problem there, pal. >> carl, we got a lot -- gm up, ford up, but tesla down today. >> yeah.

>> chinese sales. >> october china made evs, down 5.3% year on year, which comes after byd eclipsing them -- >> in the domestic market. >> they have 25% of the european market right now evs. that's a lot of cars. >> that's a lot of cars. and europe is trying to deal with what to do with -- >> they have tariffs, but the tariffs aren't high enough. now, you know that under a former president trump regime, you understand that even if the tariffs double byd, it's still no good. instead of just focusing on mexico and the steel that's coming in that's flooding china, trans shipment into mexico, which we heard could happen, i'm worried about tesla. i wouldn't buy ford here. >> after the numbers last time, jim, if you look at a full year at tesla, you can see four rejections now at 260 dlarks. >> there's a ceiling on that. i thought the last conference

call was so good and would make it so it was much more of a self-driving story, but then we got so much brushback because waymo reported and waymo is clearly very ahead of trump and the sheer number -- sheer number of drives they have -- >> you mean tesla? tesla? ahead of tesla. >> way ahead of tesla. not only are they way ahead of tesla, but california's become a battleground like you've never seen. >> they're approaching self-driving very differently, waymo and tesla. >> you mean one's got cars and one doesn't? >> one has miles driven of actual full autonomous but one has a data set that's far in excess of everything, which is all of the driving, period. tesla is using generative a.i. to actually process all of that, but not using some of the technology that's on the waymo car. >> right. but they have a brain. they have a central brain. they have three different touch points. but i'm saying that it's

unlikely -- >> it's a different -- >> -- will take the tesla numbers where i think waymo's been done with compliance with california. >> waymo's, what, 100,000 rides a week? is that right? >> yeah. and when you're in it, david, you'll be shocked. it does talk to you. if you do something wrong, it talks to you. it sees everything. it's very big brother-like. there's cameras everywhere. >> cars are more expensive, though. i mean, musk's idea of building a $25,000 robo taxi, the waymo cars, given the other -- the lidar and the -- all the things they have are far more expensive. >> one of the things, musk made this point on the call of how much better they are than waymo. i'm just talking about a bureaucratic state that is probably unlike any in the union that may just say, you know what, we're not going to take that data that tesla gives us. we have waymo data. >> we talked to mike wirth on friday about california and the

move. >> that was -- i got the sense that newsom, governor newsom and mike wirth, there was not a lot of, let's say, pertinent discussion. >> right. >> guys, i want to get to sort of the story we've talked about, about energy. i also want to start off by referencing the morgan stanley report that has hyperscaler capex set to reach over $300 billion in 2025. >> you got a problem with that? >> we're talking about amazon, microsoft, alphabet, and meta, of course. that number is incredible. use any superlative you want. >> which of the hyperscalers was not questioned about that spend? >> amazon. >> yeah. because you know why? they're making money off of it. >> yeah. the numbers are staggering. a lot of that will be through datacenters. a lot of that will be datacenters that then need -- what do they need? power. right. we need a lot of electricity. they need to cool things. they aren't in space yet. we're planning on it, but we're not there yet. >> you need a very compliant --

>> that gets us to the story of the morning, the faber report here in terms of the move we're seeing in tailen energy, in constellation, a number of other names, why? because a somewhat unexpected ruling from the federal energy regulatory commission on late friday. there are five members of this commission. only three weighed in on this particular issue. let me share it with you. the vote was 2-1. and what happened was on friday, they rejected the proposed interconnection service agreement. it's called an isa. >> right. >> between pjm, pennsylvania, jersey and maryland, a regional transmission organization for the large power grid that covers a lot of these midatlantic and -- states and a portion of the midwest. talen energy, which owns a nuclear power plant in pennsylvania, and ppo, the wires-only utility whose service area includes it, that would have allowed for amazon, aws, to

use 960 megawatt datacenter complex to be located behind the meter at the sasquehana nuclear power plant. they're not allowing it, why? let me give you a few of the reasons here. and by the way, it doesn't necessarily partisan. the chairman was actually in favor of the deal. he was a biden appointee. then you had a trump and a biden appointee who were against the deal. here's from mark christy. "many serious issues pertinent not just to this particular proposal but also for the issues that may be relevant to other co-location proposals. on this record, that claim simply has not been proven. these co-location arrangements are fairly new. given these ramifications, commission truly needs to get it right when it comes to evaluating co-location issues." by the way, chairman willie

phillips dissented and he said, "this presents precisely the sort of specific reliability concerns and other unique factors that should have justified the filing of a nonconforming interconnection agreement." it would have accepted the agreement and required the regional authority to submit regular informational filings to provide transparency. what does all of it mean? take a look at the stocks in question. constellation reported earnings, by the way, conference call as well. talen is the biggest ludoser there, but they're all getting hit. constellation, even more so. vistra. this does put into relief some question for now this whole idea of nuclear power plants powering datacenters via these kinds of agreements. >> well, i also felt that there's a possibility, a path -- first of all, they do get to

300. they're allowed to have some. >> megawatts. yes. >> but i thought there might be a path where you could write a check, get out of this. >> meaning what? >> it's more expensive. you got a sweetheart deal. >> talen says they think they erred, evaluating their options. they believe the isa amendment is just and reasonable, best interest of consumers and will have a chilling effect on economic development in places like pennsylvania, ohio, and new jersey. it's a huge issue. it's important. it doesn't mean it is in any way been dealt with in some fashion and is not going to happen, but there are going to need to be fixes here, potentially, to allow for it. >> do you want to explain to people the behind the meter? it's very interesting, but it's a way that these guys just completely avoided the way you give power. >> right. just go direct as opposed to -- >> what occurred to me, david, is no analysts seem to know there even was the possibility of this happening.

how is that possible? >> right. i don't know. many did not expect this. they expected there might be some -- there might be -- there might request some changes in the interconnection service agreement but not that they would say no to it. datacenters can be built at ne nuclear power plant sites. this would require large load interconnection study with the local utility, which could take more time. as you might imagine, it's a complex subject area, one that we are still, obviously, learning a great deal about, at least try to share with you some of the pertinent facts from this morning. >> people are buying the solar stocks off this, thinking this may make this form of energy too expensive and -- >> you got to come up -- if you can't use the existing load, you have to come up with new power. >> solar? >> yes, except that's not 24/7, which also means natural gas, potentially.

>> i think that ge vernova -- >> even though it's obviously much cleaner than coal, it's still not carbon-free. >> and ge vernova would admit that. they're not solar, they're wind, and they're onshore wind, not offshore. you're totally right about solar, david. sometimes it is not sunny outside of philadelphia where the plant is. >> guys, a quick one for me on the risk r up front. there's been a lot of opposition to the verizon deal to acquire frontier, shareholder vote is on the 13th. what i can tell you, according to people familiar with verizon's thinking, is there is no way they're raising their bid. they're going into the vote. they fully expect they're going to get it. iss, the influential proxy advisory firm, came out and said, abstain. there was a large shareholder who was voting against.

all that said, the stock you want to look at here is fybr. frontier. remember that deal getting them deeper into fiber. you can see it is down a bit there. not going to raise is everything i'm hearing. they will go into this vote fully expecting they will prevail, and that probably will be the case here. by the way, the cover bid in their deal, which was bell canada, actually did a deal of its own today as well. but at about 14 times adjusted. >> how do you get verizon stock to start going somewhere, david? what's the secret? >> that's a very different story and i don't have the answer to that. >> i don't either. that thing is just -- talk about going nowhere. >> it is interesting, the overbuilding continues in the sense of the fiber build by many of the big companies. at&t, of course, is very much focused on that. they're going to have an investor day very soon. you had t-mo making acquisitions as well that will move it deeper into potentially deploying more

fiber in many areas, and then, obviously, verizon with the frontier deal. this is a strategy being embraced by the biggest telecommunication companies, despite the fact that the likes of a john malone, who you'll hear from soon enough, thinks that it's, you know, all -- that much of that spend will not result in a return. >> and can you speak to -- i know it's a parent company of our network, but they were very crowing about telco on comcast. >> wireless. yeah. comcast is adding a lot of wireless. >> they're very bullish on that. >> yeah. it's growing. there's no doubt. the they're reselling verizon. >> broadband -- has broadband stopped growing? >> broadband was down -- broadband was up, you know, but you've got the -- finally, the -- remember, the government was helping people pay their broadband bills, and that stopped. you finally started to see the -- this last -- this was the last quarter where you're going to see significant declines. one reason why charter was upgraded again today, our parent company, comcast, is reversing after, of course, sort of a bump

from, really, more from the plan to potentially spin off cable networks. >> they hired morgan stanley to take a look. >> there may be some other banks as well that are involved there, as you might anticipate. whether or not -- >> still waiting for the disney money. >> from hulu, yeah. but the plan to potentially spin the cable networks into their own entity is an interesting one. i think the hope is that either the entity at some point would be purchased at a premium by private equity but even more so that it would allow for other companies to consider it as well. would disney consider selling a&e and some of those that iger has told me are not essential. >> is espn on the table? >> i don't think that would be part of any huge grouping of cable companies, cable networks, i should say. >> i'm surprised that comcast -- the quarter was good. broadband may be bottom. forget the reorganization. i thought it was a good quarter. >> yeah. >> i thought the stock would be up more. >> at some point, we coulding have a different parent company.

what do you think of that? >> it's happened before. >> it has. >> how about that -- >> that's how you know you're old. >> how about the barclay reverse. >> another change in ownership. >> want to switch topics to the barclay reverse jump. >> that was incredible. >> that's philadelphia too. >> a lot of the sports mags today called this iconic. 14-yard run. this is not the plain. >> why don't we have the right play? this is it. right here. >> not that. whoa! >> god. >> and did sirianni say it's the best run he's ever seen? >> unbelievable. >> the athletic talent is almost -- >> he was at a team -- he played for penn state. he was with a team for a while -- was it the raiders? was it the chargers? who'd he play for? do you remember? the panthers. he played for tepper. no major team would let him go, right? what major team would let this guy go? >> i can barely walk off a curb. >> that's some serious

plyometrics right there. >> they won, too, didn't they? >> yeah, they won, but they were up 22-0, let them back in. >> do you agree that the talent on the field outweighed the talent on the sideline? >> 100%. >> yeah. >> wow, carl. now i'm dead. you're dead. we're all dead. that was a dead call. you know that. that was like me saying, look, i don't care what we wear, which is untrue. >> why? as long as we show up every day, we're fine. >> you know my wife said, don't question your relevance. she said it. don't question your relevance. >> good advice. >> that's really good advice, jim. >> meantime, dow is down about a hundred. s&p, barely changed at all. watch bonds today. we're actually going get a three-year note auction at 1:00 today and some factory orders in a few moments. of course, the fed meeting decision will come on thursday because of election day, but the meeting will begin on wednesday. stay with us.

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watch oil today, getting some gains after opec delays the december production hike by about a month. also got some reports that iran is planning a, quote, strong and complex response to israel. we'll watch all of that. meantime, cnbc is live all night tomorrow night, election night. special coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern right here at the new york stock exchange. goes all night, overnight into "squawk box" at 5:00 a.m. eastern time. stock trading with jim is coming up next.

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we kind of focused on the issues of hindenberg, but the numbers are way up. it was a good quarter. personally, yes, i do like him. i was upset with some of the charges and there were some things, but he fixed it up. maybe he didn't fix everything and that would be beyond, but i've got to tell you, i like it. roblox, big expander here. meantime, busy week ahead. what do you got tonight? >> i have a company that does natural gas and oil, did not have a good quarter. it's difficult to figure out what's happening in nat gas. and then arkbest, judy has a good handle on freight. it's interesting, it's hit or miss. and then tomorrow night, carl, i'm all yours, whatever you want me to do. >> we'll have a good time, listen to the country speak. >> yes. and how about the country sing that we got?

>> great snl over the weekend. jim, we'll see you tonight. s&p is barely moving. less than a point, although the dow is down 0.1.

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good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen. are you sitting down there? >> my cords are all -- >> david faber and carl quintanilla. live, as always, from the new york stock exchange. take a look at stocks ahead of a busy week. s&p 500, little changed right now. the nasdaq is down about 0.1 of 1 percent. how about treasuries? we did see a move overnight, with yields a little lower. the ten-year yield 4.27%. there's going to be a lot sold this week. we're 30 minutes into the

trading session. three big movers we're watching. shares of tesla down for a sixth straight day. new delivery numbers out of china showing they sold 68,000 vehicles and that is down more than 5% from last year. big shakeup in the dow 30. nvidia and sherwin-williams will be joining the exclusive group. intel and dow getting the boot. and a tough trading day for the nuclear power-related names. amazon's deal with talen rejected by regulators. more on the fallout coming up. big moves in all of those stocks. let's get some durables with rick santelli. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. happy morning, monday. durable goods are final reads. we tossed mid-month reads. the order is down one-half of 1%, came in as expected. the weakest level since down 3.3% in june. last month, though, had a

significantly larger revision. so i'm going to have to change what i just said. last month goes from minus two-tenths to minus eight-tenths. so now that minus half a percent is coming to last month. if you look at factory orders, take out transportation, it improves rather markedly to up 0.1. we can see where the big drag was. if we look at the revision, much smaller from minus one-tenth to two-tenths last month. durable goods, as i said, we are going to toss out minus eight-tenths. that would be the lightest since august. it was down eight-tenths last month. of course, none of these numbers are very good with respect to what we're looking at down the road and there has been major slowing. if you take out transportation, once again, this numbers goes dramatic up. it's up half a percent, and it replaces up 0.4. if we look at the aircraft, a

proxy for capital spending, it improves from the mid-month read to up 0.7%. and that really is quite notable. that is the best reading of the year. if we look at shipments instead of orders, a bit of a different story, down 0.1, but that does replace down 0.3, so there is some improvement. the last time we had a positive number, you have to go back to april when it was up 0.3. so we see shipments on the weak side. interest rates are down today. many suspect it's a delayed response to a very weak jobs report. others, of course, are lifting the pages on a political explanation. sara, back to you. >> thank you, rick, rick santelli. events of the week, so one looks more certain than the other, and that's the fed meeting. obviously we get the election first. and we are seeing, as rick said, some moves in markets. i would just point out the u.s. dollar and treasury yields, which are both coming down a little bit, that's been a reversal of what we've seen.

it's really been thought to be sort of a one-way trump trade, which has pushed deals higher, whether it's better growth prospects, higher inflation prospects, more deficit spending. all of that has helped yields rebound since the last fed meeting. that and stronger growth and better economic data we've seen. and then, also, the dollar has been a little bit firmer. so those back off as some of the polls show that harris has a little momentum going in. but, again, it's such a coin flip, it's hard to make a wager on these charts. let's talk about something that there's a little more certainty of, and that's the fed meeting. because the mark is now pricing in about 100% odds that the fed cuts on thursday at this meeting. so i thought it might be useful to show the data that the fed is going to be looking at. so, first of all, where are we on their inflation fight? that's been the core mission. and we continue to see more progress on that front. if you look at the pce, which we did get recently, the pce shows that we're down to 2.1% and 2.7%

on core. there's the core price, strip out food and energy. it's still a little elevated, but the trend is going in the right way for the fed. and then if you look, guys, as some of the data between the february meeting when they cut 50 and where we are now, it's not obvious what they should be doing if they're so data dependent meeting to meeting. so the unemployment rate, for instance, it was 4.2%. it's even better now, 4.1%. the payroll three-month average, okay, so that's weakness, we've seen that. then again, the last report was definitely impacted by storms and strikes. so they have to discount that a little bit. wages actually firmer than where we were in september, 4% versus 3.8%. services, that part of the economy stronger than where we were in september when they cut. this is the acceleration we've seen in the economy lately. and then even consumer confidence, we picked that one out, better. the bottom number is where we

are now, top number is where we were then. so either the fed is having a really quick desired result when it comes to the easing and the spillover in financial conditions and into the economy, or the economy is just in really good shape. and even though the market thinks we're going to get a cut now and in december, it's not necessarily obvious. i mean, yes, inflation has progressed nicely and they want to protect the jobs numbers there, but the economy is doing just fine. >> it sure is. we're starting to get some q4 trackers, atlanta fed. we're going to talk to chris harvey in a minute. he's got a great chart looking at the spread between the two-year and fed funds. his argument is that the bond market is perfectly fine with a measured pace cut cycle. >> and that's 2.3% with some of the data for october, which is going to be influenced by the storms and the strikes. we know that's why that's not higher. we got the q3 gdp number last week, it was worse than expected on the headline, but consumer

spending drove it, 3.7% growth. that's a much better number than people were expecting. i was paying attention to marriott because they did cut their forecast. a lot of that was on china. here is some commentary which i found interesting from the ceo, revenue growth at luxury and full-service hotels outperformed select service properties and weekdays surpassedweekends, reflecting strength in group and business transient compared to leisure. remember when we were waiting for the business and group travel to come back? now they're starting to see it and it's outperforming leisure which has cooled off. big week ahead, one of our next guests says to bet on cyclicles and the other says mag seven names. great to see you guys. chris, let me turn to you. we were mentioning some of your chart work. actually, the really cool one is about the senate and why it's

important, especially since some of the polling suggests that might be the most certain outcome of the week. >> i think so. everyone asks this, who is going to be in the white house. we turn to them and say, listen, you don't need to know who is in the white house. because if you look at who controls the senate, that's where the favorable returns come from. a gop-controlled senate over a two-year period, those are better returns because the gop is more focused on the economy, more business friendly, lower taxes, less regulation. it's much more friendly to the equity market. the other stuff is hard to predict and i think it will come down to the wire. >> do you think the historical trend of s&p up six months after any election, it still makes sense? >> it makes sense. we also have a fed easing cycle. typically 12 months after the fed starts cutting, you do see equities up. now we have certainty with the president, we know who is in congress and we have the fed lowering rates. that's a pretty good thing. as you were talking about, the economy is not bad. >> what do you make of the moves we're seeing, for instance, today, the reversal of the trump

trade on the dollar and treasuries? there are things like tariffs which make this a little more unique and you don't need congress to do. >> that's true. i think what we're seeing today is just a little bit more uncertainty. everyone was very positive, the trump trade was going to happen and trade is going to be in office. some of the polls we saw out of iowa changed that. you saw the markets tighten up. and we're just having pricing a little more uncertainty. i think that's what's happening with the rate market and equity market. >> what if we don't get a result? that's the other warning i'm reading in all the research notes and how long it would take to really see a market reaction. how would the market take that uncertainty? >> not good. so if you go back to 2000, i think we were off 4% in the first couple of days, double digits. by december, we had it revolved and equity markets started to go higher. so it won't be good, but it's not clear to me that this is going to be -- i think things are going to swing all red or all blue. i think the states are going to be very close. but the electoral college may

not be. i don't know whether it's going to swing red or blue. >> do you agree with the idea, buy stocks no matter what happens, who wins the election? >> well, i totally agree with chris that if it's a contested election and drawn out, i think that's a volatility driver and that's probably the easiest call to make. but i think there ends up being some sort of relief rally in the aftermath of an actual decision. we know there's been a lot of holding off, whether it's holding off on hiring or firing or capex. and i think you relieve some of that uncertainty and maybe see a little bit of opening up in terms of the outlooks coming from companies, anything that they were holding off on as a result of the election. >> i remember going into this reporting season, one of the worrying threads was that we were going to start to get some year-end concerns, commentary, qualitative statements about '25. it certainly hasn't been reflected in the aggregate beat so far, right? >> yeah, so you have had a

slight trending down in terms of the beat rates and you've seen a tiny little movement in fourth quarter estimates, which are still pretty healthy relative to where we are in the third quarter. you have seen a big trend up in third quarter, about an 8% blended growth rate right now versus an expectation of 4% coming into this. but as has been the case for the last few years, i think analysts are keeping the estimates a little closer to the vest from a time perspective. during reporting season they might make adjustments to the next quarter, at best the quarter after that. but they're not really moving estimates that much, say, a year out. and i think that's somewhat just due to general uncertainty, but a lot of companies not going back to that kind of precise sense per share four quarters out guidance. a lot of companies are saying, that's not how we run our business. i think that's something that started to happen in the early part of the pandemic when we saw

a record-breaking number of companies withdraw guidance altogether. i think they're using that maybe as an opportunity to not go back to that same kind of attempted precision, three or four or five quarters out. >> i wonder if there's any event risk here, chris, going into the fed. there always is and what he says. but the market feels very confident about two cuts this year. do you think there will be disappointment if they skip? i just showed the data. it's not obvious. >> i don't think so there's a ton of risk with 25 basis points. i think that's fair. i think what you're going to see is a fed that acts a like like '04 to '04, measured rate. this is part of that recalibration. more importantly, what we want to see and hear is that path forward. give us some forward guidance. >> they don't know. >> well, at some point they're going to have to know. at some point people need to plan. if they don't give good forward guidance, volatility stays high

and that's counterproductive because that will keep mortgage rates high. if you give people a path forward, we can see volatility and mortgage rates come down. that's what the fed wants. they don't want a situation where the unknowable is just too large. >> i guess if it's not obvious it's a good thing, which we've been talking about, because the economy is doing so well. i was at this big conference last week at the table with 12 of the top bank ceos, and nobody raised their hand predicting two rate cuts before year end. they all raised their hand predicting one rate cut, which is interesting because that's not where the market is. liz ann? do we still have you? >> yeah, no, i -- >> oh, i think we'll work on our shot. i think our shot froze. chris, i'll throw that one to you. >> so, again, i still think there's a recalibration. i still think what we need is some shape in the yield curve. fed funds are too high relative

to the rest of the curve and the fed will normalize rates. you're right, the economy is strong. does the economy really need more accommodation? no. but are you giving it more accommodation by lowering fed funds? i don't think so, because interest rates are still very low, and credit spreads are incredibly tight. funding markets are wide open. so i don't think it's going to overheat the economy. what i think is they're right, they're just recalibrating things and getting back into the line with the rest of the market. >> last point, one of your points this morning is that you do think gdp forecasts for '25 are going to go higher? >> absolutely. so we saw this at the beginning of the year. we saw that numbers went higher significantly and we saw the re-inflation in the first quarter, where energy, industrials, financials all went higher as gdp numbers went higher. before looking at gdp for '25, you're looking at a 1.9%, that's really low based on what we just saw with gdp in third quarter. in addition, credit spreads this tight, that's inconsistent.

spread spreads at 80 or 90 basis points are telling you the gdp is going to be a lot higher than 2%. >> what do you think about that? can we see for '25, a steady row up or revisions? >> yeah, i think the economy looks fine right here. i think the risk is not so much what the fed does on the short end, but what happens on the long end. i guess the open question is, does the problem get worse on the long end where you continue to see whether it's bond vigilantes coming back if the fed continues to cut. to sara's point, laying out the data now versus the september meeting, that would be an interesting risk coming from a backdrop of the fed lowering, but the longer-term yield market saying this doesn't make a lot of sense, particularly if it's reflecting stronger growth. >> right. we're going to learn a lot, helpfully, in the next five or six sessions. thanks for kicking off the week.

we're going to take a closer look at what the outcome of the presidential election could have on big tech, and specifically ai regulation. >> plus, nuclear power related stocks have been on a great run. they are taking a hit this morning. we're going to explain why. and as you know, warren buffet's berkshire is surging over the weekend as it continues to sell down its big stake in apple. we'll talk about what it might be signaling when "squawk on the street" continues in a moment.

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quarterly numbers out of berkshire hathaway this week and the company's cash pile is above $300 billion. it had been about $276 billion the prior quarter. why? in part, because it continues to sell stakes in some of its biggest positions. the biggest by far has been apple. berkshire still holds about $70 billion worth of the tech giant shares, but that would imply the company has cut approximately a quarter of its stake from the last quarter, and actually as much as 65% from what it originally held. the senior markets commentator mike santoli is here to break it down. i don't know if you're going to go into detail about berkshire's insurance business as well, obviously an important component of their overall earnings. >> absolutely. the insurance business has been firing pretty well. that is the core of the operating company's earnings power. in fact, shares have tracked nicely, the insurance etf, as well as apple. in general, this selld-down in

the portfolio, that would be apple, as well as bank of america, it just continues this process of the company getting extremely liquid, that $325 billion in cash holdings now exceeds the value of its public portfolio, which is about $285 billion at this point. it's very tough to draw firm conclusions about the motivation behind all of this, of course, except to say what warren buffet has said in the past, he doesn't necessarily see the overall large cap market as being particularly compelling in terms of value. also, berkshire has kind of halted in the last quarter the repurchase of its own shares, and that could be because berkshire hathaway itself has gotten a little pricey. if you look at the company's price-to-book value, pretty much the standard way to value this company, it's really recently at the very upper end of its 15-year range at about 1.7 times book value, around 1.6 times. i would raead some of this as getting the company into a spot of being tremendously flexible

and liquid for its next phase. you don't necessarily want warren buffet as he at some point gets ready to hand off the company to new leadership, to have very large public acquisitions that stick out. right now even selling down apple as much as they have, apple is still like 23% of its public equity portfolio. b of a still 11%. there's all of these lopsided bets within the investment holdings that it seems like they maybe just want to bring down to a more neutral spot. i'm not sure it's a doomsday in terms of a call in the overall market or economy. it seems much more like rather just sort of keep all options open in the form of all that cash. let's remember, earning 4 3/4. >> that said, as you pointed out, it is larger than the public equities portfolio. of course, you also indicated buffet is 94 years old.

there is going to be a transition at some point in the not too distant future, you would imagine. they could, if they wanted to, do the biggest deal of all time times three. >> absolutely could. i would think -- and of course this is all just kind of reading tea leaves and educated gut feel. buffet at the last annual meeting did say that his designated successor will also have oversight over the investment side, not just the operating companies. that was a switch. and i would read that as suggesting that the future berkshire hathaway will emphasize public equity investing a bit less. it won't be as much about, you know, the childhood stock picker, who warren buffet has always made his money through investing directly as opposed to operating businesses. it seems to me, whatever comes next, if it's not a huge operating company purchase, a 100% buy of a big company, maybe it's a series.

or everyone keeps talking about down the road some kind of special dividend, more aggressive share repurchase, at some point in a future phase for this company. one other point about the apple thing, you can go back and see buffet expressing a little bit of regret for not having sold down his coca-cola holdings when it was trading at, like, 40, 50 times earnings in the late '90s. maybe he feels like apple got way too big in the portfolio and a little too rich. >> good analysis on a company you know really well, mike. appreciate that. talk soon. mike santoli. watch boeing today. union workers will vote on whether to accept the tentative offer or continue this nearly two-month-long strike, which has shut down production of most of their passenger jets. a vote in favor would clear the way for companies to resume on the west coast and bring in much-needed cash. we'll talk about that tashe vote happens today. first, a deeper dive into what's pressuring the

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let's take a look at some of these nuclear power related

stocks, constellation energy, obviously, the largest owner of nuclear power plants in the country. talen energy, we've been talking about that name. why? it's at the center of news that is pressuring all of them, as you can see, well off its lows as a number of analysts are coming out after this surprising news on friday. they are defending the company and its stock. the news itself was the federal energy regulatory commission rejecting this proposed interconnection services agreement that would have connected essentially what they call the pjm, pennsylvania, jersey, maryland, the regional organization, for a large power grid that covers a lot of the mid-atlantic and portions of the midwest. talen had this deal, they own the susquehanna plant in pennsylvania, to go what they call behind the meter with amazon for its proposed 916 megawatt data center complex. they already had an agreement to

take some power, they wanted more. they needed a ruling in favor. they didn't. it was 2-1. the chairman actually came out in favor, but two other commissioners were opposed to it. let me just give you briefly what commission christie had to say as one of his reasons for opposing. the co--location arrangements are a fairly new phenomenon that entails huge ramifications for grid reliability and consumer costs. given that, we need to get it right when it comes to evaluating these co-location issues. one of the key issues, of course, is that you're allowed to pull power avenue the grid without paying the transmission and distribution wire line fees and that's where the center of this fight is. because the grid was built with the expectation, of course, that all the local power would flow across it and everybody would pay something to use it. so, when you're behind the meter, you're not necessarily

paying those fees. now, there are some in front of the meter deal, such as microsoft's deal to power its data centers by recommissioning one of the plants at three mile island. that is with constellation. and as i said, any number of analysts coming out and defending talen energy saying, essentially, they're going to figure out a way to rework this. time will tell, guys, but it is certainly a complex issue, but one that is at the center of so much that we talk about, namely generative ai, the plan as morgan stanley puts it in a note for the hyper-scalers, for the company to spend as much as $300 billion in capex in 2025. a lot of that on data centers. those data centers need an enormous amount of power, hence these deals that are being put in place, both in front of the meter and behind the meter, to make sure they have the necessary power, and often they want them to be carbon free, which means, in many cases, nuclear, since solar and wind

are not 24/7. obviously they're an important component of grid as well. >> reflects a few things, also, about the backdrop. number one, these stocks have been on fire. vistra is still the best performing s&p stock, outdoing nvidia this year, and constellation is not far behind. there's many so much enthusiasm and bullishness. not surprising to see a setback, maybe have a bigger impact on the stock. also, there's been this view that the regulators are going to be totally on board with the shift back to nuclear. so it's interesting that you broke it down in this specific case, because i do wonder if this is something, the co-locating and siphoning off. >> it's not about an opposition to nuclear, as i understand it, and, again, i'm learning as we go here, as so many others are, as much as it is a concern about, well, is the consumer going to end up paying more for transmission costs and things like that, especially for these

behind-the-meter deals where you're pulling existing power that is no longer being shared in terms of those costs. >> with the normal grid. >> with the normal grid. that said, you've got jpmorgan and ubs both coming out, ubs saying we see a path forward, jpmorgan also saying the amended rejection is a bump in the road and the data center demand, of course, remains intact. that's not going to stop. you spend $300 billion, you're going to figure out a way to get those things powered. >> and approved. meantime, let's get a news update with silvana hanao. >> good morning to you. a court hearing is under way in philadelphia this morning over elon musk's $1 million election sweepstakes. a judge rejected musk's request to move the case to federal court last week. before today's hearing started, a lawyer for musk's america pac said the philadelphia district attorney's suit claiming the giveaway and illegal lottery is a violation of first amendment

rights. the supreme court agreed today to review a dispute over louisiana's congressional district map. one lawsuit claimed it needed to contain two majority black districts to comply with federal law. a second claimed that was discriminatory and violated the 14th amendment. the case has no immediate impact on this year's elections. and legendary music producer quincy jones has died. his legacy includes producing michael jackson's thriller album and collaborations with frank sinatra and ray charles. he was supposed to receive an honorary academy award later this month for his work in films that include contributions to "the color purple" and he was 91 years old. >> thank you very much. still ahead, the possible election impact on big tech and the key names at risk here. plus, a programming note, just a

week away from cnbc's deliver alpha investor summit right here in new york city november 13th. leaders will be combining with insight and anl is. i'll be speaking with nelson peltz and it will be rhtig after the election. you can sign up. go to cnbc.com/deliveringalpha or just scan the qr code on the screen. wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked injections.

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the nasdaq coming off its worst week since september, after a slew of reports from big tech. our seema mody has been tracking the action. >> semiconductors specifically trying to make up ground after losing over $360 billion in market cap last week. nvidia, the biggest laggard. though rebounding today as we wait its inclusion into the dow this friday.

desperately, they've been asked to pull forward production of the product, and it seems like a data point that reiterates the strong demand for processing units as a growing number of analysts are voicing a concern over the broader impact of the election on the chip sector. b of a calculating the higher tax rate if vice president harris wins and says it would be a long-term negative for nvidia and others like texas instruments and qualcomm. the biggest potential challenge is the prospect of tariffs under former president trump, which would challenge the sector with increased costs and memory and equipment players. the chip sector outperformed the s&p on average by 51% under a democrat in office, 38% under a republican. tonight we get two big earnings reports, the nxpi, followed by a crucial business update from super micro which comes tomorrow. >> thank you. tech coming off its worst weekly loss since early

september. first weekly loss in eight weeks. for a sector that's long been under regulators, what will the outcome of the presidential election mean? we have roger with us. i've got to start off with this piece of research. hyper scaler now set to reach $300 billion in 2025. estimates morgan stanley. might even be higher than that. it's four companies. you've been outspoken in saying, don't do it. you continue to believe that that money is not going to be well spent? >> david, the key issue for all of the hyper-scalers is that the use cases they're arguing for have been very slow to emerge. and, you know, i'm all in favor of making investments in plant and equipment. i'm not in favor of doing that unless you have a reasonable chance of getting a return on it. and i think that right now you're taking it on faith that

gene generative artificial intelligence is going to create enough value to justify it. you've seen the reports from goldman sachs and sequoia that suggest that we need $600 billion in revenues just to justify the investment we've already made, and we're talking about an incremental $300 billion. this may be the greatest thing that's ever happened, but they haven't shown it yet, and that, it strikes me, is a really important issue for investors. >> they can't take the risk of not doing it, can they? because if it is and they're not there, then they're out of business. >> that would be true if these people weren't all pursuing the same strategy. i think the problem, david, is that we have four or five companies pursuing exactly the same opportunity with the same level of intensity. and they may be producing enough capacity for four or five times as much demand as we're really going to have. that's the big risk. >> since you've cited sequoia, the other thing they've said about the wave of ai, short term

overhyped, long term underestimated. could it be that? >> it could easily be true. but the numbers, think about this, the numbers are so much bigger than we've ever seen before. and the only reason we're taking it seriously, these are the largest market cap companies in the economy. and they all have minon monopold they think they'll be able to extend them into the future. the problem is, when you look at the experience of deploying this technology in the field, the returns are much less obvious to the investor. >> it kind of reminds me of this jpmorgan chart earlier in the year, roger, where they looked at ai capital spending as a percentage of market-wide capex and the current -- it's currently about in line with cisco, nortel, and then it's approaching peak ibm revenue

back in '69. i wonder if you think those analogues are fair. >> if the demand turns out to be there, that's going to be correct and that would have been a really smart move. my big issue is that we are moving so rapidly and doing so despite a lot of evidence that maybe caution could be exercised here. we'll see. this is a bet. that's why we have markets, right? >> well, nobody else can do it, either. to your point, these companies are so large, they're bigger than most nation states in terms of their ability to spend. i can't really imagine many countries that could actually spend what we're talking about here, $300 million, for example, in a year, to try to advance this technology. >> and, generally speaking, the last time i think the united states undertook a project that looked like this was the manhattan project, where we did run multiple competing ideas at exactly the same time because we were in a gigantic rush to complete an atomic bomb. now, what you're doing here is you've got four or five

essentially identical programs going on, aiming at exactly the same demand. and the assumption is that simply because we put all the capacity in place there will be demand to satisfy it. my question is, at what price? is there going to be enough demand to provide a rate of return? >> understood. you have not been shy about using the word monopoly to describe these companies. what are your expectations of the difference between a harris presidency and a trump presidency when it comes to the p potential prosecution in your opinion? >> i think seema had it exactly right. investors are faced with a choice. on the one hand you have harris who represents a continuation of the economy policies that did two things, one, create the strongest economic growth of any developed country since the pandemic, but has also combined that with much more rigorous

antitrust enforcement, which has been rough on those industries, but fantastic for workers and fantastic for the economy as a whole. contrast that with trump, who is offering a very different vision. he wants to end the chips act, he wants to end the aca, he wants to deport tens of millions of people and he wants to place tariffs on everything we import. those things are collectively incredibly inflationary. and businesses have historically chosen stability over risk, which would argue for harris. the tech industry is interesting, because there's so many players in there whose interest is not in democracy, whose interest is not in economic growth, but it's just in lowering their personal taxes and having an opportunity to grow their businesses without any government interference. and i understand that position. i just think in this election the interest of investors are actually different, because antitrust will unlock a lot of value for investors that

currently is stuck inside these companies, they're doing self-driving cars, and these duplicative investments in generative ai that i think are not going to provide investors -- >> i don't know, roger, i feel like the current antitrust regime has actually -- if you talk to investors and executives, has put a chill on activity and economic growth because there's been deals blocked and deals that haven't even gotten to the floor, because they're so worried that this current ftc in particular is not going to welcome it. >> let me push back on that, because i think what you're seeing is an understandable dislike from the folks who want to do the concentration, who want to aggregate more and more of the economy into fewer and fewer hands. the reality is if you go back to the history of the tech industry, an antitrust case in 1956 created the industry in the first place. it separated uniquely in the

world the u.s. computer industry from telecom, who was a huge advantage, and it created the semiconductor industry by putting the transistor in the public domain. the ibm case in the '60s separated software from h hardware, which essentially triggered the personal computer industry. the follow-on at&t cases accelerated and created the internet. so i don't think people should be as negative. history says antitrust is good for investors. >> well, you could make that argument, also, that the trump administration wasn't exactly -- they also brought some of these cases against big tech in their department of justice. the other thing i also just want to say, you said he would repeal the chips act. he hasn't said anything, president trump hasn't said anything and speaker johnson has walked back comments suggesting that as well. i don't think it's a surprise that chips did better under democratic leadership because it was also a time where ai, generative ai boomed, and, yes, we got the chips act as well.

i think hard to make the case that it was very partisan. >> i'm simply talking about the issues that are on the table that investors are going to have to decide by. do you want to stay the course strategy, or do you want to have one with radical change? again, investors are going to make their choices about this. i think this one is a lot more clear-cut than what we normally get in a presidential election, but, again, it's not going to be up to me to decide how this comes down. the voters are going to decide. >> they will. and at some point we're going to find out, perhaps not on election night, but perhaps even soon after. roger, thank you. >> my pleasure. take care. regardless of when we know, we're going to be live all night tomorrow on election night. we'll get the results as they roll in. we'll get some reaction from some of the biggest names in business. it's going to begin at 7:00 p.m. eastern time here at the stock exchange. and then live vegecora continues overnight until "squawk" begins at a special 5:00 a.m. start.

big changes coming to david's favorite index, the dow. deep dive on one of the names joining the index after a quick break. stay with us. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere. ♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the s&p 500 with spy. getting there starts here.

news that the company, along with nvidia, will join the dow. dom chu is taking a closer look at where the street stands. >> if we take a look at the reason sherwin-williams and dow are switching spots, if you look at a five-year chart, you can see the movement. sherwin-williams has grown massively, dow relatively flat, down 11%. where the street stands is interesting. we do right now have a situation where there's not much implied upside, maybe 6% of its target price of $398 a share.

it's 50% buy rated, 43% hold and 7% sell according to the latest data, so that will be a thing to keep a close eye on. and then some of the etfs that track these names pretty well, it's a part of the xlv, so we're talking about 6.5%, weighting and then the itv home construction etf, it's also a part of that. keep an eye on those etfs, sara, back over to you. >> we'll be pay ago lot closer attention to sherwin-williams, i guess. just a day away from the election, stocks are little changed. s&p is high: we have the moody's analyst here with us. just to set the table, i know you are an adviser to john mccain. typically you've been more associated with democrats or they cite your work when it comes to economic benefits of

democrat parties. are you still in that camp? >> well, sara, i've provided advice to a lot of lawmakers from all parties, so if they're a credible candidate, i view it as my public service to provide advice if they ask. now, in this campaign, the harris folks have asked me to comment and weigh in on their housing plans, and i've done that. so, just to put everything on the table. >> i just wanted to be transparent. thank you for that. so what is your assessment of -- let's start with her housing plans? >> well, i like the supply side. she's focused -- just to back up, we have an affordable housing crisis, a very severe shortage of homes for rent and for sale for folks that have lower and middle incomes. people are having a great deal of difficultybecome homeowners. so we need more supply. i like the part of her housing plan that juices up supply. tax credits, low-income housing

tax credits for more affordable rental, a tried and true program that's been around for several decades. i think that's a good idea. and then a tax break for home builders who build starter homes, homes that are lower price points, so that we get more supply at the lower end of the market. so those things, i think, are critical and very, very important. the demand side proposals, i'm less enamored with. i think if they came later, they would be helpful, but not until we have more supply. >> a lot of people think they would be inflationary, that 25,000 for first-time buyers. so net-net, mark, which candidate will be better for the economy? >> sara, i think if harris wins, we're going to have a divided government. i think we can state with some level -- can't say anything with confidence, with some level of confidence, the senate is going to be republican. if that's the case, that's the policy status quo. i don't see any major changes in policy. if you like the economy today, you'll like it a year from now and two years from now. and the economy today is

performing very well. the other scenario, equally likely, president trump wins re-election and, in that case, i suspect we'll get a republican sweep. and then that's a game-changer. we get broad-based tariffs, some form of deportation, if it's a sweep, we'll probably get more tax cuts. in my mind, that means some combination of higher inflation, higher interest rates and a diminished economy. so if i had to pick based on what the candidates are saying, i would say i would take the status quo at this point. >> mark zandi, thank you. short and sheet today. appreciate it. mark zandi of moodiy's. warren has been trying to get them to cut for a while before they started cutting, but wants to help housing prices, mortgage rates. >> as the cycle was getting

under way, she was blaming powell for potentially costing jobs. >> she also wanted a wave of new regulatory infrastructure after the mini banking crisis in march of 2023. i don't think that would have been smart, either. >> i don't think powell -- >> he pretends to listen. he's very good at that. >> plays the game well. no politics, though. we're going to have plenty of politics coming up. what else we've got coming up is live market coverage and it continues after this. hi, i'm damian clark. i'm

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good monday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. today a big week for investors, the election tomorrow followed by the fed rate decision on thursday. are the markets prepared or should we expect some big volatility ahead? plus, geopolitics in the election. former national security adviser h.r. mcmasters with us and breaks down what it might mean around the global. the global